domingo, julho 09, 2023

"Rush to a solution"

"one of the consultant's most important contributions to a client is a redefinition of the problem. The line manager begins by experiencing some pain: people are restless, equipment isn't working, output is down, the invoicing process is flawed, the line extension is running way late.
Most consulting projects get started because managers feel pain. Once in a while, they get started because of a desire for further success or preventive measures, but most often there is some pain in the picture. When the organization feels the pain, managers start to describe for themselves why the pain exists. When their explanation of what is causing the pain is accurate, their attempts to solve the problem are usually successful. When consultants are called in, the line manager's attempts at solving the problem have not been that successful, or maybe the manager has no idea at all how to solve the problem. When a manager's attempts to solve the problem have not succeeded, it is probably because the manager's attempts to describe the cause of the pain have been inaccurate.
The client's initial attempt to describe to us the cause of the difficulties is called the presenting problem. As a consultant, I never accept the presenting problem as the real problem without doing my own discovery and analysis. The presenting problem and the real (or underlying) problem are different. Because line managers start from an incomplete definition of the problem, their attempts at solution have not entirely worked out. Therefore, an important contribution for the consultant is to redefine that initial problem statement for the client."

Ao ler isto lembrei-me logo dos políticos que perante um sintoma doloroso, trabalham directamente para o resolver sem irem à causa. Aliás, não o resolvem, lançam fogo de artifício para fazer de conta que fazem alguma coisa (rush to a solution). Recordo:

"The last form of resistance is the client's desire for solutions, solutions, solutions: "Don't talk to me about problems; I want to hear solutions." Because the consultant is also eager to see the problems solved, some collusion can take place between consultant and client if the discussion of solutions is not held off a little.

The desire for solutions can prevent the client from learning anything important about the nature of the problem. It also keeps the client dependent on consultants to solve these problems. If the line manager hasn't the patience or stomach to stop and examine the problem, then the solutions are not going to be implemented effectively."

Trechos retirados de "Flawless consulting: a guide to getting your expertise used" de Peter Block.  

sábado, julho 08, 2023

Thank you Cav for everything



Trabalhar o denominador ou o numerador

A continuar a minha leitura de "Flawless consulting: a guide to getting your expertise used" de Peter Block encontrei este trecho:

"In the second edition of this book at the turn of the century, what was new in the discovery phase were the whole-system methodologies described in Chapter Eleven. Since then, probably the most interesting new development in discovery is the growing interest in looking at a system's gifts, capacities, and possibilities. This approach is used in addition to, or sometimes in contrast to, looking at problems - their causes and their solutions.

This approach goes under many names: asset-based community development, positive deviance, positive psychology, appreciative inquiry, future search, and more. Each of these is based on the premise that looking at what in our history we want to preserve, or what is working in a system now, or what a system longs to create in the future is a powerful way to build commitment and sustainability into any consultative or change process."

A abordagem tradicional a que o autor se refere é a de melhorar o que existe através do ataque às causas das falhas, a abordagem nova referida neste trecho é a de procurar os "system's gifts, capacities, and possibilities".

Entretanto, passei parte da semana a preparar uma acção de formação para introduzir um conjunto de pessoas à abordagem por processos para que participem num esforço de melhoria na senda da abordagem tradicional. 

A abordagem tradicional tem o seu lugar. No entanto, em algumas circunstâncias não é a mais adequada. Por isso, ao pensar no país escrevi em 2013: Redsigma - O fim da linha

Como exemplo da abordagem assente em "looking at a system's gifts, capacities, and possibilities" também de 2013: O repovoamento do interior também passa por isto.

De um lado lado temos o trabalhar o denominador (a abordagem tradicional), do outro o trabalhar o numerador (a abordagem dos gifts, capacities, and possibilities).

sexta-feira, julho 07, 2023

Será que a podem transformar numa oportunidade?


Como auditor de sistemas de gestão da qualidade gostava de encontrar mais sistemas de gestão. 

Por exemplo, auditar um sistema de gestão em que a análise de contexto transpira temas realmente importantes e não palha para alimentar auditor. 

Ontem no FT, em "EU set to make textile industry pay for waste", encontrei um tema que ainda não vi tratado nas empresas têxteis e de calçado:
"The EU wants the textile industry to pay for the processing of discarded clothing and footwear under new rules aimed at cutting the environmental footprint of fast-fashion brands.
...
The equivalent of 12kg of clothes and footwear per EU citizen is discarded each year of which more than three-quarters is incinerated or goes to landfill, according to commission data. The consumption of clothing and footwear is expected to increase by 63 per cent from 62mn tonnes in 2019 to 102mn tonnes in 2030. European Environment Agency data suggests.
...
"Fast fashion is a problem,""
Em tempos escrevi aqui sobre os rinocerontes cinzentos. Rinocerontes cinzentos são ameaças altamente prováveis, de alto impacto e frequentemente negligenciadas. São diferentes dos cisnes negros, que são eventos imprevisíveis e inimagináveis.

Qual o impacte desta medida nos fabricantes portugueses? Será que a podem transformar numa oportunidade?

Um risco é algo que pode acontecer, mesmo que não façamos nada.
Uma oportunidade só pode ser aproveitada se for trabalhada com antecedência. Nunca esqueça o que aprendi na aula de despedida de um professor: Sorte ... quando a preparação encontra a oportunidade.

E depois, um ditado asiático: “As oportunidades multiplicam-se à medida que são aproveitadas”

Numa empresa com um sistema de gestão um tema destes não passa despercebido, motiva reflexão, decisão e acção.

quinta-feira, julho 06, 2023

Outros sintomas de que o mundo está a mudar

Na última página do WSJ de ontem encontrei "U.S. Sees Boom in Factory Building":

"Congress passed two measures last year that aimed, in part, to build America's manufacturing capacity back up.

...

On Monday, the Commerce Department reported May construction spending figures, with overall spending rising a seasonally adjusted 0.9% from a month earlier. Once again, an important piece of that was spending on construction of manufacturing facilities."

 Entretanto, ontem durante a minha caminhada matinal, li dois artigos sobre um mesmo tema, que poderá vir a ter repercussões na forma como os governos como o português estão habituados a receber dinheiro da UE:

Da fonte 1:
"una tendencia de cierres que afecta especialmente a las plantas de producción que requieren un alto gasto energético.
...
Los sectores que más economía consumen, como el químico o el metalúrgico, optan por llevarse al extranjero plantas de producción, ante el encarecimiento de la cesta energética y la incertidumbre sobre los suministros.
...
«A la industria alemana le esperan tiempos difíciles», dice el economista de Commerzbank Ralph Solveen, que añade que «en la segunda mitad del año existe la amenaza de una disminución significativa de los pedidos que probablemente contribuya a que la economía se siga contrayendo»."

Da fonte 2:

"the German economic engine is facing structural headwinds, weakening the country in the long term as geopolitical tensions mount.

The exports that powered growth in the 2010s—propelled by Asian demand for German cars, machinery, and chemicals—ran out of steam in 2018

...

Now, while globalization has not gone into reverse, it is changing form, and not in Germany’s favor. China’s car exports are exploding, supplanting Germany as the second biggest exporter  and threatening Japan’s spot at the top of the global auto market. Beijing is also upgrading its machinery sector. Ironically, Berlin has exacerbated the competitive threat that is now emerging with little regard for a level playing field with China. 

...

Germany also made little progress in cutting red tape or reducing unwarranted protections for professional service like tax or legal services, which both stifle competition and keep prices unnecessarily high. This makes it harder to start or scale-up a business."

quarta-feira, julho 05, 2023

"In most cases, however, this thinking is naive"

"The limitation of third-party help comes from the separation between the discovery and the doing. Third-party recommendations have to be sold to management, and then management has to either mandate or sell the ideas to the employees. The very process of selling is based on flawed premises: it pretends that there is a right answer to the problem, that the consultant or design team knows the right answer, and that, in good engineering fashion, the line organization can (and should) be persuaded to accept the answer and act on it.

In some cases, especially when the problem is strictly technical in nature, there may be a right answer, and it may be accepted and implemented on its own merits. In most cases, however, this thinking is naive. Whenever there are questions of management or employee commitment, or issues of developing new skills or new organizational relationships, the prescriptive engineering or medical model ends in modest change at best. At worst, even if the third party's answer is right, it still may not be acted on, even with unqualified management sponsorship.

...

When the goal is to build internal commitment to a set of changes, selling is the worst way to do it. People will resist change that is inflicted on them, no matter how compelling the case.

The power of the whole-system approach lies not so much in management sponsorship but in the high engagement and involvement of the entire organization. The whole-system process doesn't proceed without sponsorship, for management will be in the room, but it doesn't bet on sponsorship so heavily. It is a bet on collective knowledge, collective purpose, and the commitment that grows out of deciding for oneself."

Trechos retirados de "Flawless consulting: a guide to getting your expertise used" de Peter Block. 

Religio - something completely different

Recentemente comecei uma leitura nocturna de "Introdução ao Cristianismo" de Joseph Ratzinger. Logo nas primeira páginas deparo com o tema da diferença entre o crente e o descrente. Ratzinger destaca a natureza entrelaçada da crença e da descrença, e a incerteza inerente que tanto os crentes quanto os descrentes enfrentam nas suas respectivas visões do mundo. Os crentes navegam na dúvida e nos desafios da fé, enquanto os descrentes são assombrados por dúvidas sobre sua própria incredulidade. Ambos são confrontados com a realidade inescapável da existência humana, onde a certeza das próprias convicções nunca é absoluta. Ratzinger enfatiza que rejeitar a crença traz à tona a sua presença inegável e a possibilidade persistente de que ela possa conter a verdade. Em última análise, ressalta o dilema inescapável que todos os indivíduos, independentemente de suas crenças, têm de enfrentar como seres humanos.

Isto está directamente relacionado com a reflexão de outra leitura nocturna do primeiro trimestre, "Patience with God: The Story of Zacchaeus Continuing In Us" de Tomas Halik. Tomas Halík é muito bom:

"I agree with atheists on many things, often on almost everything — except their belief that God doesn’t exist…

In today’s bustling marketplace of religious wares of every kind, I sometimes feel closer with my Christian faith to the skeptics or to the atheist or agnostic critics of religion. With certain kinds of atheists I share a sense of God’s absence from the world. However, I regard their interpretation of this feeling as too hasty, as an expression of impatience. I am also often oppressed by God’s silence and the sense of God’s remoteness. I realize that the ambivalent nature of the world and life’s many paradoxes can give rise to phrases such as “God is dead” to explain God’s hiddenness. But I can also find other possible interpretations of the same experience and another possible attitude to “the absent God.” I know of three (mutually and profoundly interconnected) forms of patience for confronting the absence of God. They are called faith, hope, and love…

Yes, patience is what I consider to be the main difference between faith and atheism. What atheism, religious fundamentalism, and the enthusiasm of a too-facile faith have in common is how quickly they can ride roughshod over the mystery we call God — and that is why I find all three approaches equally unacceptable. One must never consider mystery “over and done with.” Mystery, unlike a mere dilemma, cannot be overcome; one must wait patiently at its threshold and persevere in it — must carry it in one’s heart — just as Jesus’s mother did according to the Gospel, and allow it to mature there and lead one in turn to maturity."

Entretanto, ontem via Twitter cheguei a "O humorista David Baddiel não acredita em Deus, mas gostaria que ele existisse" o que me levou a recordar um filósofo contemporâneo suíço, Alain de Botton, que quer criar uma religião sem Deus porque, sendo ateu, sente necessidade das consequências de uma religião para a sociedade como um todo. O que me leva a outro trecho de Ratzinger e a um episódio das reflexões de John Vervaeke em "Awakening from the Meaning Crisis" sobre a origem da palavra religião e do seu sentido.

Segundo o que percebi, a origem romana da palavra religião, religio, estava relacionada com a prática, com a observância de certas formas e costumes rituais. Não era crucial que houvesse um acto de fé no sobrenatural. Eram os rituais que ligavam o povo às instituições do poder temporal. Recordo que Júlio César foi Pontifex Maximus, sumo sacerdote, contra sua vontade porque não podia usar armas, imposto por Mário o heptacônsul.

terça-feira, julho 04, 2023

Mais sintomas de como o mundo está a mudar

Mais sintomas de como o mundo está a mudar. 

"When Bayard Winthrop, the chief executive of the retailer American Giant, ordered the batch of shirts that his company would advertise for the Fourth of July, he didn't think much of it. The retailer, which has been producing its apparel solely in factories around the United States for more than a decade, perennially leans into its "Made in America" pitch for Independence Day.

This year's crew-neck T-shirts are fittingly available in red, white or blue with very little embellishment other than getting straight to the point: Letters that read "American Made." They cost $60 each. And they sold out in the first day. Then he ordered another set, which also sold out quickly as well. The company is scrambling to secure its fourth order.

For American Giant, this is shaping up to be its most lucrative Fourth of July yet. The company has been using its "Made in America" status to advertise to consumers since its founding in 2012. But, Mr. Winthrop said, it is now reaching customers at a time when chatter about the global supply chain, re-shoring, trade deal loopholes and sustainability in fashion has moved beyond boardrooms and policy circles. 

Sixty-five percent of U.S. adults said they intentionally bought "Made in America" products over the past year, according to a Morning Consult survey released last month. That's about the same rate of U.S. adults who said they had those same intentions last year.

...

The reality is much of that apparel is made overseas and imported. 

... 

Since the 1990s, production of apparel sold by major American retailers has largely moved overseas, especially to China, which brings heightened tensions between the United States and China into the equation for those companies.

The pandemic also strained the global supply chain, disrupting the reliability of imports. In some cases, retailers are moving production closer to the United States or sourcing a wider share of the goods they sell domestically.

In the past month, lawmakers in Washington have introduced a series of bills seeking to close off a shipping channel that allows companies like the fast-fashion retailers Shein and Temu - both founded in China - from benefiting from a trade rule, which allows them to forgo paying fees at U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Lawmakers argue this would level the playing field for American-based retailers."

Recordar o recente Sonho ... deliro. O paralelismo para Portugal tem de ser ao nível do Made in Europe.

Entretanto, ontem encontrei esta frase:

"The more immersed we become in a changing culture, the more we need to be reminded of what is timeless and fundamental." 

Trechos retirados de "Shirt Maker Has Patriotism Down to a U.S.A. -Made ' Tee" publicado no NYT de 2 de Julho último.

segunda-feira, julho 03, 2023

"Show me your agenda"

"Then let's acknowledge that decisions are far more important than tasks.

Show me your agenda for today, and I'll show you what you value. If your team spends almost all of its time on chores with known solutions, then you're probably in the stopwatch business. Find the cheapest, fastest, most reliable people (or computers) available, then put them on your assembly line.

But if we're seeking to make change happen, then our job is to get from here to there. To find a path. To identify the next best thing to work on, describe an opportunity, and then make it real.

If you're a pathfinder, call it that, organize for it, and measure it."

E recuo a 2006:

"Qualquer subordinado, é o melhor estudioso do comportamento do seu chefe, não interessa o que o seu chefe diz, ou proclama; interessa o que o seu chefe faz, onde ocupa o tempo da sua agenda. Assim, o que a gestão de topo mede é uma poderosa mensagem para o resto da organização, o que se mede é o que interessa, é o que tem de ser atingido." 

domingo, julho 02, 2023

Fugir da previsibilidade (parte II)

Há oito dias em Fugir da previsibilidade escrevi:

"Predictability é sinónimo de concorrência perfeita, ou seja lucros raquíticos e empobrecimento.

...

Fugir da previsibilidade é uma forma de criar heterogeneidade e fugir da comoditização, é uma forma de criar valor potencial que pode vir a ser capturado como margem superior."

Ontem, encontrei em "The Song of Significance: A New Manifesto for Teams" de Seth Godin:

"There's a huge difference between the backwardlooking work of quality improvement and the forward-looking dance of making decisions about what happens next.

If you're not willing to produce change, then you really have no options. Cost-reduction through industrial management is your only path forward. We've built world-class systems of gradual systems improvement. The measured quality of cars, computer chips, and even overnight package delivery is stunning."

As PMEs no campeonato do custo mais baixo não têm hipótese. 

"In the case of the industry leader, our research showed an entirely different impact of market overlap. Market overlap seems to counteract the benefits of strategic similarity to the industry leader. This is consistent with our reasoning that dependence on the same type of resources as the industry leader and obtaining them from the same resource pools counteract the legitimacy advantages that small firms obtain through similarity to this prominent firm. In addition to this effect on the supply side, it is reasonable to understand that market overlap with the industry leader could trigger negative effects on small-firm performance due to the need to compete with this rival for the same customers (i.e., demand-side effect). Since the industry leader has a stronger position in common markets, it could attract customers more easily than small firms, having a negative impact on their results. Thus, both demand- and supply-side considerations lead to the same negative effect of market overlap on the relationship between similarity to the industry leader and small-firm performance."

Trecho retirado de "To be different or to be the same when you are a small firm? Competitive interdependence as a boundary condition of the strategic balance perspective

sábado, julho 01, 2023

"resistance is an emotional process"

"When we ask for help, we want both a solution to the problem and confirmation that everything we have done has been perfect.

A colleague of mine, Neale Clapp, mentioned one day that people entering therapy want confirmation, not change. On the surface, it would be ridiculous for a client to bring in a consultant for help, and then tell the consultant that no change was desired and the client did not really want to learn anything. This would not be rational. But that is the point: resistance is an emotional process, not a rational or intellectual one.

...

Not surprisingly, organizations that are in serious trouble tend to be the most difficult clients. They need to change the most and are least able to do it. For low-performing organizations, the tension of failure is so high that they are unable to take one more risk, and so instead they hold on to their unsatisfactory performance. In these extreme cases, there is probably not much consultants can do to surface the resistance to change. We may just have to accept it."

Julgo que já escrevi sobre este tema, Procrastinação e falta do sentido de urgência, sobre empresas que adiam a aplicação de micro-mudanças ao longo do vector tempo, ampliando o gap entre o que são e o que deveriam ser, até que só uma grande mudança a pode ajudar, mas não há experiência sobre como mudar, e há um medo tremendo de falhar ... mudar significa avançar para algo desconhecido, mudar significa medo.

Trechos retirados de "Flawless consulting: a guide to getting your expertise used" de Peter Block.

sexta-feira, junho 30, 2023

Lucro, estratégia e prompts

O artigo intitulado "Working Hard for the Money: The Crunch on Global Economic Profit" destaca a tendência de declínio do lucro em todos os sectores, algo que vai contra a opinião geral, e explora os fatores que contribuem para essa tendência, como o aumento da concorrência e a mudança na dinâmica do sector.

Ou seja, reforça-se cada vez mais a importância de se fazerem escolhas estratégicas, da eficiência operacional e da inovação para sustentar e aumentar o lucro.

À boleia de um projecto que me ocupa parte do tempo entre Maio e Agosto, estou a perceber em primeira mão o que é trabalhar com inteligência artificial ainda que nas suas formas mais básicas. Ainda ontem, uma tarefa que me demoraria 3 a 4 horas foi feita em 30 minutos e com a vantagem da minha intervenção ser crítica e não afectada por ter trabalhado previamente no que estava a ver. Agora é imaginar aplicar isto ao planeamento da produção, à gestão de meios de produção, ao design, ...


BTW, já imagino cursos sobre "Engenharia de escrita de prompts".



quinta-feira, junho 29, 2023

.Em vez de deixar o mercado agir ...

Umas lições que aprendi na segunda década deste século, (Fazer o by-pass ao poder):

Stressors are information!

Estamos viciados em pedir às instituições que mascarem a realidade (os bancos centrais que descarreguem dinheiro na economia), depois a realidade regressa com a força redobrada e ...

Outro exemplo, "Produtores de vinho apreensivos com ano desastroso em Angola devido a queda do kwanza". Em vez de deixar o mercado agir ... uns produtores fechariam, recursos seriam redireccionados, e o futuro seria construído, temos "Europe Drowns In Wine As EU Adopts "Crisis' Measures To Rescue Producers":

"Wine production on the continent increased 4% last year compared with the previous year, while wine stocks were 2% higher versus a five-year average. The drop in wine demand was the most significant in Portugal, down 34%. Demand also tumbled 22% in Germany, 15% in France, 10% in Spain, and 7% in Italy."

Quais são as partes interessadas

Assim que olhei para esta imagem:
Sorri e pensei nos exercícios pueris que vejo em algumas empresas sobre quais são as suas partes interessadas.


quarta-feira, junho 28, 2023

Sonho ... deliro.

Está quase a fazer dois anos que o primeiro ministro foi descrito assim:
"Ao dr. Costa interessa tanto o que se vai passar daqui a três anos, como a mim o que se vai passar daqui a 300. O dr. Costa quer saber da semana que vem. O que é desesperante é que a direita nem a semana que vem percebe."

 Dali só podemos esperar competência(?) no jogo do imediato. Por isso, seria interessante que um bloco central qualquer, para remover reacções epidérmicas, se reunisse para pensar o futuro, e preparar um conjunto de propostas sobre como criar condições para tirar partido da re-industriialização da Europa. Não seria para escolher campeões, não seria para distribuir dinheiro pelos amigos, mas para, na linguagem de Bloomberg como mayor de New York, pôr a mesa.

A revolução está aí:

"A global arms race to reindustrialise is under way, reversing long-established trends in many advanced economies. The forces driving this race - decarbonisation, deglobalisation, remilitarisation - are likely to have lasting implications for the global macroeconomy and may even help it break free from secular stagnation.

...

Underpinning this shift has been a relocation of manufacturing production from west to east and an accompanying reconfiguration of global supply chains. [Moi ici: Recordar "já não precisamos da vossa ajuda" ] This was made possible by successive waves of trade liberalisation, culminating in China's accession into the World Trade Organization in 2001. These trends were then amplified by the activist industrial policies pursued by countries such as China and Singapore, policies typically not matched in the west.

...

The past few years, however, have seen a new industrial age beginning to take shape, with global manufacturing undergoing a revival, in particular in the west. This has been underpinned by three distinct global arms races.

...

This new industrial age is also beginning to reverse some of the secular macro trends of the past. Fractured supply chains are raising global prices, causing inflation targets to overshoot and interest rates to rise. Public and private money is flooding into manufacturing projects, irrigating firms dehydrated by the investment drought. Higher investment plans are also helping absorb the global savings glut, with global real interest rates rising by over 1 percentage point so far.

Most arms races leave no one better off. Today's race to reindustrialise is different. It mav be just the impetus the world needs to break free of its economic and environmental torpor."

Sonho... deliro.

Trechos retirados de "The industrial arms race is just what we need" publicado no FT de ontem.

terça-feira, junho 27, 2023

Incerteza e desequilibrio

"Principle 1. Value is created in production and innovation and realized in exchange.

...

Principle 2. Value is appropriated through competitive bargaining and pure bargaining.

...

Principle 3. Firms allow stakeholders to create value by offering a governance form to resolve the pure bargaining over the surplus created by team production and team innovation.

...

The fundamental insight to emerge from juxtaposing these analyses [Moi ici: De Schumpeter and Knight] is that (Ricardian) rent is a cross-sectional/equilibrium concept that explains payments above opportunity costs that derive from heterogeneity of individual resources, while (Schumpeterian) profit is a dynamic/disequilibrium concept that explains payments above opportunity costs that derive from heterogeneity of resource bundles.

...

In Schumpeter's (1934) analysis, profit is possible when the entrepreneur moves the economy away from a prevailing competitive equilibrium by combining resources in a new way. More specifically, entrepreneurship is the act of bringing new combinations to market alternatively referred to as "innovation." If (and only if) the new way of combining resources creates more value than before, this will result in an economic profit: the entrepreneur only needs to pay resource suppliers their opportunity costs and appropriates the residual. 

...

There are three important things to note about entrepreneurial profit. First, as our simple example demonstrates, it does not require heterogeneous resources. The reason for the entrepreneurial profit is not that there is something special about any of the resources that are used, but that there is something special about the bundle of resources. Second, note that Schumpeter's analysis only holds under conditions of uncertainty (Knight, 1921). Without uncertainty, why would the entrepreneur be able to appropriate the value created by the bundle of resources that she assembles? The assumption is that the entrepreneur, in organizing resources in a new way, only needs to pay resource suppliers their opportunity costs. However, why would the residual between these opportunity costs and the prices paid for the new product not be subject to ex-ante bargaining between the entrepreneur and resource suppliers? In Knight's view, if the residual was generally anticipated, this is exactly what would happen: the economy would adjust its relative prices and the profit opportunity would disappear. Knight's fundamental insight was that entrepreneurial profit can only result when it is not generally anticipated. This insight also leads into the third point about entrepreneurial profit, which is that it is likely to be a temporary phenomenon. This is the case because once the entrepreneur's innovation proves successful, the previous uncertainty is eliminated. In that sense, we can understand successful innovation as revealing new productive knowledge. Unless there are "isolating mechanisms" that prevent the dissemination of this new productive knowledge, the economic system will adapt: imitation will eliminate the entrepreneurial profit. I

...

Principle 4. Profit is a disequilibrium phenomenon resulting from heterogeneity of resource bundles.

Principle 5. Rent is an equilibrium phenomenon resulting from heterogeneity of individual resources.

...

Principle 6. Economic profit is the result of resource bundles characterized by (1) novelty, (2) unique complementarities, and/or (3) scale advantages.

...

Principle 7. Stakeholder payments are the sum of (1) opportunity costs, (2) rent payments, and (3) the outcome of pure bargaining over economic profit."

Como se cria o desquilibrio? Com a inovação. O que é preciso para criar inovação?

Como se deslinda a incerteza? Só pondo a pele em jogo. Desconfiar de teóricos que sabem onde os outros devem pôr o seu dinheiro. 

Acerca da incerteza, li há dias uma frase que era mais ou menos: Depressão é olhar para trás. A ansiedade é olhar para a frente. E depois: "Anxiety is the price you pay for your freedom."

Trechos retirados de "Value, rent, and profit: A stakeholder resource-based theory" de J. W. Stoelhorst.  

segunda-feira, junho 26, 2023

"innovation is the ultimate source of value creation"

"If we want to explain rather than assume value creation, we need to acknowledge the central role of the firm in the framework. It is the firm that is able to turn resources into products for which the willingness to pay of buyers exceeds the sum of the opportunity costs of resource suppliers. Take this ability out, and no value will be created. However, this ability, too, must necessarily be assumed. Define "productive knowledge" as the ability of the firm to turn resources into products.
...
It may be clear that innovation is the ultimate source of value creation: over time an economic system can only create additional value if firms develop new productive knowledge - or in other words, new ways of increasing buyers' willingness to pay and/or lowering the sum of the opportunity costs of the resources used in creating the products for which buyers are willing to pay."

Trechos retirados de "Value, rent, and profit: A stakeholder resource-based theory" de J. W. Stoelhorst. 

Are you prepared to walk the talk? (parte III)

Are you prepared to walk the talk? (parte II)

Sintomas da evolução estratégica da Zara em "Zara's wedding crashers mark its rise as couturier to the rich and famous" publicado no passado Sábado no FT:

"The wedding of Ricardo Gómez-Acebo Botin, a nephew of Banco Santander chair Ana Botin, was a high society affair outside Madrid this month, attracting gushing Elle magazine coverage of guests' flower-topped hats, swishy capes - and the fact some people wore Zara.

So noteworthy was the presence of two "inspiring looks" from the Spanish brand, costing €129 and €36, that it became headline news.

...

Although it still sells basics such as T-shirts, Zara has tried to differentiate itself from Sweden's H&M and escape the tag of disposable "fast fashion" by becoming a designer of stylish partywear.

Last year American singer Selena Gomer wore a €150 electric blue Zara suit to Britney Spears' wedding. Inditex's sales reflect the shift.

...

"But we are always striving to improve quality, style and design, and we want to make room for nonconformnism in our fashion. That's never changed," he told the Financial Times at Inditex headquarters in Arteixo.

Patricia Cifuentes, analyst at Bestinver, said: "They have repositioned themselves slightly upwards to reach the events arena. In the past in Spain you could never wear Zara to a wedding. But now with all the influencers and celebrities wearing Zara you can. Inditex has reinforced the idea that Zara sells fashion."

domingo, junho 25, 2023

Fugir da previsibilidade

Ontem, quando li este tweet...

Sorri em concordância. E pensei na quantidade de pessoas que não o entende. Pior, que está contra ele. Pior ainda, sendo empresários, estão contra ele.

Recordei então um sublinhado num artigo que ando a ler:

"The benchmark in explaining differences in performance is the model of perfect competition, which specifies the conditions under which all firms earn zero economic profit. It follows that generating positive economic profit requires market imperfections. In line with this, RBT points to factor market imperfections as a crucial source of economic profit."

Predictability é sinónimo de concorrência perfeita, ou seja lucros raquíticos e empobrecimento.

Fugir do padrão é arriscar, é inovar e fugir da previsibilidade.

Fugir da previsibilidade é uma forma de criar heterogeneidade e fugir da comoditização, é uma forma de criar valor potencial que pode vir a ser capturado como margem superior.

Trecho retirado de "Value, rent, and profit: A stakeholder resource-based theory" de J. W. Stoelhorst



sábado, junho 24, 2023

Não somos plancton

"If we had to highlight a single cause for the rise in inflation, it must be the over-reliance of central banks on what goes by the name of workhorse macroeconomic models. This is not a prediction failure at its heart. It goes deeper. Modern macroeconomics has lost the ability, if it ever had it, to understand the dynamics of the 21st-century global economy."

Em Mongo os clientes não gostam de ser tratados como plancton

Retirado da revista The Economist.


sexta-feira, junho 23, 2023

"Safety is first"

O meu parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras há muitos anos que pratica esta filosofia:

"Safety is first. It's impossible to grow, to connect, or to lead if we are under threat or feel the ground shifting beneath us.

...

But the real desire is significance. To do something that matters. To be missed if we're gone. The universal desire to achieve dignity and be seen.

Becoming significant means making a change happen: impacting people or the world around us so they're different than if we had never been here. But to create change involves risk, the risk of living in possibility, and of the threat of failure (or success).

...

Tension is not something to avoid. You can't walk outside on a sunny day without casting a shadow, and you cannot create significance without encountering tension."


Recordo este postal de Março de 2020 Corona, pessoas e melhoria.

Trechos acima retirados do último livro de Seth Godin, "The Song of Significance: A New Manifesto for Teams".

quinta-feira, junho 22, 2023

A concorrência "desigual" ou A evolução da produtividade (parte VII)

 Parte VI,  Parte VParte IVParte IIIParte II e Parte I.

A desglobalização em curso e as barreiras à entrada de emigrantes nos Estados Unidos geram este resultado inevitável. Por isso, é que o patronato é tão adepto da imigração.

O aumento dos salários na base da pirâmide não só beneficia as pessoas que o recebem, como promove a morte das empresas incapazes de os pagar, podendo contribuir para o aumento real da produtividade agregada do país (nos Estados Unidos ainda não está acontecer porque o numerador não está a crescer mais do que o denominador). Esta morte, como é natural, e não imposta por um governo, liberta recursos para outras empresas quando são precisos e sem que fiquem por aplicar. É, sem tirar nem pôr, ao vivo e a cores, o Flying Geese a funcionar.

Os responsáveis pelas empresas que vão morrendo argumentam como o actual governo de Portugal:

"A secretária de Estado da Promoção da Saúde admitiu esta quarta-feira dificuldades em contratar especialistas de obstetrícia e ginecologia para o Serviço Nacional de Saúde (SNS), alegando a concorrência "desigual" do setor privado.

...

Segundo disse a governante, o "problema" na contratação destes especialistas para os hospitais públicos reside na "concorrência com os privados que é desigual"."

Havendo mão de obra barata ao preço da chuva ... Portugal não irá crescer se continuar a “exportar ‘mais do mesmo’”

Não há acasos, está tudo relacionado.

quarta-feira, junho 21, 2023

A importância das "market frictions"



"the presence of firm-level heterogeneity implies the presence of various market frictions, like causal ambiguity and asset specificity/uniqueness.
...

These market frictions interact to create the need for cost minimization, or the opportunity for value creation and value capture.
...

We then apply the market-frictions logic to organizational boundary and economic rents questions to show how joining cost minimization, value creation, and value capture can be achieved through considering various market frictions. More generally, we maintain that it is useful to view market frictions as the fundamental building blocks of strategic management, and the analysis of new combinations of market frictions may provide new strategic insights."

As "market frictions" são o que cria as imperfeições de mercado, são o que gera a concorrência imperfeita. Sem imperfeições de mercado não há criação e captura de valor, só há lucros raquíticos e empobrecimento. Faz-me tanta impressão que estas coisas não sejam evidentes para a academia.

terça-feira, junho 20, 2023

A lente macro é tão ...

"When the world's business and political leaders gathered in 2018 at the annual economic forum in Davos, Switzerland, the mood was jubilant. Growth in every major country was on an upswing. The global economy, declared Christine Lagarde, then the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, "is in a very sweet spot." Five years later, the outlook has decidedly soured.

...

A lot has happened between then and now: A global pandemic hit; war erupted in Europe; tensions between the United States and China boiled. And inflation, thought to be safely stored away with disco album collections, returned with a vengeance. But as the dust has settled, it has suddenly seemed as if almost everything we thought we knew about the world economy was wrong. [Moi ici: Mas quem é que achava que estava tudo bem?]

The economic conventions that policymakers had relied on since the Berlin Wall fell more than 30 years ago - the unfailing superiority of open markets, liberalized trade and maximum efficiency look to be running off the rails. [Moi ici: Este blogue sempre achou errada a crença absoluta na maximização da eficiência, basta recordar os marcadores eficiência, eficientismo e denominador]

...

Globalization, seen in recent decades as unstoppable a force as gravity, is clearly evolving in unpredictable ways.  [Moi ici: Outra tema caro a este blogue, há mais de 17 anos que escrevemos aqui sobre as forças a minar a globalização. Recordo O regresso dos clientesEspeculação - um epílogo?] The move away from an integrated world economy is accelerating. And the best way to respond is a subject of fierce debate.

...

As the consulting firm EY concluded in its 2023 Geostrategic Outlook, the trends behind the shift away from ever-increasing globalization "were accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic - and then they have been supercharged by the war in Ukraine."[Moi ici: Nunca esqueço de Maio de 2020 - El coronavirus actúa como acelerador de cambios que ya estaban en marcha]

...

Associated economic theories about the ineluctable rise of worldwide free market capitalism took on a similar sheen of invincibility and inevitability. Open markets, hands-off government and the relentless pursuit of efficiency would offer the best route to prosperity. [Moi ici: Recordo aquilo a que chamo a doença anglo-saxónica, recordo as críticas que fazemos há anos à automatização - Especulação sobre mais um falhanço da automatização, recordo o que escrevo sobre Kevin O'Leary]

...

The story of the international economy today, said Henry Farrell, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, is about "how geopolitics is gobbling up hyperglobalization. [Moi ici: O que me impressiona nestas análises é que me parecem demasiado macro. Há mais de uma década que a globalização está a recuar por causa de Mongo, por causa do fim do modelo do século XX, por causa de "We are all weird"]

...

"Ignoring the economic dependencies that had built up over the decades of liberalization had become really perilous," Mr. Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser, said. Adherence to "oversimplified market efficiency," he added, proved to be a mistake." [Moi ici: O que me impressiona nestas análises é a crença de que a economia é como a física newtoniana, quando a economia é a continuação da biologia"]


Trechos retirados do artigo, "Failures of Globalization Shatter Long-Held Beliefs", publicado no NYT do passado Domingo. 

segunda-feira, junho 19, 2023

O mundo não é mesmo linear

No WSJ do passado dia 14 encontrei uma estória interessante, "Sesame Allergy Sufferers Wanted Warning Labels. They Got More Sesame.":

"Congress passed legislation intended to make life better for people allergic to sesame seeds. Instead, it made things worse. The bill, passed with overwhelming bipartisan support and signed into law by President Biden in 2021, requires manufacturers to label sesame on their products starting this year.

In response, some companies began adding sesame to products that hadn't included it in the past-saying it was safer to add sesame and label it, rather than certify they had eliminated all traces of it.

People with sesame allergies say the result is fewer sesame-free food options, as well as new and unexpected risks in foods they used to eat without worry."

O mundo não é linear.

O inferno está cheio de boas-intenções.

Unintended consequences

domingo, junho 18, 2023

Não acreditem no Pai Natal!

Sexta-feira passada ao final do dia, acabei de ver o filme "The Martian" em folhetins de cerca de 20 minutos ao longo de 3 ou 4 dias.

Gostei muito. MUITO MESMO!

Comecei a gostar do filme logo ao final dos primeiros 20 minutos. Experimentei uma sensação positiva indefinida que se manteve e até se reforçou ao longo do filme.

No final do filme percebi o porquê. É uma ode ao locus de controlo interno. Engraçado, no almoço dessa mesma sexta-feira com o meu parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras tinha falado do locus de controlo interno, um tema que acompanha este blogue há anos (2007 - ver também o marcador). Na altura escrevi aqui:

"É arrepiante a situação... quem tem o seu Locus de Controlo no exterior, ao atribuir poder a forças exteriores, para ditar o destino, para mudar as coisas... quase não tem motivação para agir, para melhorar, para actuar... afinal de contas, sente-se, acredita que é uma espécie de Calimero jogado de um lado para o outro pelos deuses! Esta postura degenera em "the discovery that loss of control leads to learned helplessness, a state similar to depression."" 

O click no final do filme ocorreu-me quando Mark Watney (o marciano) diz:

"When I was up there, stranded by myself did think was going to die? [Moi ici: Estava sozinho e sem contacto com a Terra] Yes, absolutely. 

And that's what you need to know going in because it's going to happen to you. This is space. It does not cooperate. At some point everything is going to go south on you. Everything is going to go south and you’re going to say 'This is it. This is how I end.' Now you can either accept that or you can get to work. [Moi ici: "You", não o papá, não o governo, não o outro, mas eu] That’s all it is. You just begin. You do the math, you solve one problem. Then you solve the next one, and then the next and if you solve enough problems you get to come home."

E o que é a vida? Aqui recordo o Livro do Génesis no capítulo 3:

"17 E ao homem disse: «Já que deste ouvidos à tua mulher e comeste do fruto da árvore, do qual eu te tinha proibido de comer, a terra fica amaldiçoada por tua causa, e será com grande sofrimento que dela hás de tirar alimento, durante toda a tua vida.

18 Só produzirá espinhos e cardos e tu terás de comer a erva que cresce no campo.

19 Só à custa de muito suor conseguirás arranjar o necessário para comer, até que um dia te venhas a transformar de novo em terra, pois dela foste formado.

Na verdade, tu és pó e em pó te hás de transformar de novo."

A vida envolve inerentemente lutas que os indivíduos têm de enfrentar e superar obstáculos para encontrar significado e realização. E a responsabilidade de agir é de cada um, não podemos esperar que outros decidam por nós.

E esta mensagem sobre o locus de controlo interno não é só sobre uma pessoa abandonada e isolada num planeta deserto. É quando a tripulação da Hermes a caminho da Terra resolve "amotinar-se" para regressar a Marte e salvar Mark. É quando a tripulação da Hermes tem de tomar uma decisão sobre como agarrar Mark no espaço, começam por desligar o som, retirar Houston da tomada de decisão. A decisão é deles.

 

Vivo num país em que o locus de controlo mais comum está no exterior. Toda a gente quer ser ajudada, toda a gente sente-se coitadinha. Mais, toda a gente pensa que tem direito a essa ajuda.

Os partidos políticos, da direita socialista à esquerda socialista, até a Iniciativa Liberal vai aderindo ao catecismo (têm de conquistar mais e mais votos), passam a mensagem: Todos têm direito a um queijo diário!!!

Acreditem no Pai Natal.

BTW, a banda sonora final ... 


... é a continuação da mensagem.

sábado, junho 17, 2023

Mais do que dinheiro

Esta semana li "Diferença salarial entre jovens com ensino superior e secundário cai para metade numa década e está em «mínimos históricos".

Entretanto, ontem a almoçar com o meu parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras fiquei a saber que a filha começou a trabalhar numa empresa francesa ... 38 dias de férias por ano. O namorado dela, numa outra empresa francesa... 48 dias de férias por ano. Entretanto, perguntei à minha filha, numa empresa na Suíça... 32 dias por ano.

Como é que tantos jovens portugueses ainda ficam por cá neste país socialista?


sexta-feira, junho 16, 2023

Os extremistas

No último livro de Seth Godin, "The Song of Significance: A New Manifesto for Teams" encontrei um texto sobre um tema que me é muito caro: 

"49. Focusing on the Extreme User
Every organization has extremists: the employees, customers, or investors who demand more, pay more, use more, talk more, and share more. These extreme users have great needs and offer greater benefits. They are the heavy users, people with disabilities, the sneezers, and the professionals. They're the committed. The Stanford d.school has argued that focusing on these users teaches the organization lessons that will work for all users. This is contrary to the typical industrial organization, which is happy to lose the extremists if it helps them serve the masses more easily. Find the nerds, the motivated, and the overlooked, and figure out what they need to thrive. That exploration will reveal what others have needed as well but didn't care enough to speak up about."

Isto alinha bem com um texto que encontrei na net recentemente:



quinta-feira, junho 15, 2023

Evoluir na paisagem económica

Ontem no JdN em "Alemanha cola-se a Espanha nas vendas de componentes - As exportações de componentes para a indústria automóvel cresceram 26,9% em abril, o 12º mês consecutivo de subida homóloga." sublinhei:
"Após um máximo mensal histórico em março, quando as exportações de componentes automóveis ascenderam a 1.112 milhões de euros, as vendas destes produtos ao exterior cifraram-se em 899 milhões em abril, uma subida homóloga de 26,9%, indicou a Associação de Fabricantes para a Indústria Automóvel (AFIA).
A associação destaca que este foi o 12º mês consceutivo de crescimento em termos homólogos.
...
Em termos de crescimento homólogo, as vendas para Espanha subiram 21% no acumulados dos primeiros quatro meses do ano.
Já o mercado alemão apresenta, para igual período, um aumento no valor das vendas na ordem dos 29,5%, o crescimento mais expressivo entre os cinco principais destinos das exportações do sector."

Recordo o que escrevi aqui há dias:

"Just why should the organization renew itself when there is no crisis? 

...

Nothing breeds complacency like success. The point for maximum strategic paranoia is when you are at the top of your game." 

Ao ler o artigo de ontem no JdN fiz logo a ligação para um artigo do passado dia 9 de Junho no Eurointelligence de Wolfgang Münchau, "How an industry declines":

"There is a lot of confusion about de-industrialisation. It does not necessarily mean less industry and fewer factories. It means less money - a falling share of industry in an economy's value-added. That has a lot of important consequences, but not necessarily the ones people expect, or discuss.

...

The most important impact of the slowly creeping de-industrialisation is a loss of profits, not necessarily a loss of activity. That translates into relatively lower wages

...

The diesel scandal was the last hooray of the German car industry. 

They will still make cars in Germany in the future. But the industry will be dominated by other plays, it will employ fewer people, it will feed fewer suppliers, and its role in society will diminish."

No final desta leitura recordo que procurei mentalmente fazer um paralelismo com a deslocalização do têxtil alemão para Portugal nos anos 60. 

A ser verdade o que escreve Wolfgang Münchau, a AFIA devia agora estar a promover a paranóia estratégica entre os seus membros ("The point for maximum strategic paranoia is when you are at the top of your game"). Quantos iriam ouvir esse apelo?

No livro que acabei de ler na passada segunda-feira, "Lead and disrupt: how to solve the innovator's dilemma" de Charles A O' Reilly III and Michael L. Tushman, os autores contam a estória da empresa Ball Corporation:
"Ball is recognized around the world for its high-quality metal and PET plastic food and beverage containers, and for its leading aerospace technology products and services." 
O livro começa o texto sobre a Ball da seguinte forma:
"The story began in 1880 when Frank Ball and his four brothers began making wood-jacketed tin cans to carry kerosene for lanterns. However, soon after their founding, glass jars became an economical alternative to wooden buckets, so the Ball brothers quickly converted their business to produce glass jars, including what would become their most successful offering, the screw-top Ball jar that generations of Americans have used for home canning."
Esta empresa ficou-me na memória pela sua capacidade de evoluir na paisagem económica do seu tempo.

quarta-feira, junho 14, 2023

Curiosidade do dia

O mundo a mudar

No FT de ontem matéria-prima para análises de contexto.

Por um lado "China is 'cancelled' for many foreign investors"  onde encontrei:

"Overseas investors are selling shares even in profitable internet companies such as Tencent and Alibaba, while becoming reluctant to back the country's most promising start-ups. Venture capital group Sequoia last week became the latest business to bow to rising tensions between Beijing and Washington, announcing a plan to split its China business into a separate entity. Adding to the flight of foreign capital is an unsteady economic recovery that has deflated Chinese tech stocks that had briefly jumped on hopes for the country's post-pandemic reopening. The downward trend has left employees and investors concerned that the depressed valuations for Chinese tech groups listed in New York and Hong Kong may be long-lasting.

"China is getting canceled and the economy is a dumpster fire," said a Hong Kong-based equity analyst." 

Por outro lado "Clients rush for Asia investment products that exclude China" onde encontrei:

"Global fund managers say they are rushing to meet client demand for new Asian investment products that exclude China as investor appetite for the region's largest economy is hit by slowing growth and mounting geopolitical risk.

...

They said demand had been stoked by worsening US-China tension and a rally for the rest of the region that had left Its biggest market behind.

"Investors are concerned about geopolitics," said Minyue Liu, Investment specialist at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

...

"On geopolitics, there are a lot of different opinions among clients but I think that anyone who thought the US-China tension was going to go away is now very aware that it will not," Lees said. "At the same time, clients are seeing that they can get a lot of exposure to China through other markets like Australia, Japan, and South Korea."

However, the main driver of the trend towards ex-China investment was "economic, not geopolitical","

O mundo a mudar.


Entretanto, no JdN de hoje, na última página pode ler-se "Xi prepara megaplano de estímulo económico"... faz-me lembrar os anos 90 e os dirigentes japoneses. Estímulos económicos são para salvar o sistema financeiro.


terça-feira, junho 13, 2023

A evolução da produtividade (parte VI)

 Parte VParte IVParte IIIParte II e Parte I.

"In crisis situations, you need to reinvent rapidly through a turnaround in which everything about an organization is open for reexamination. Strategic renewal, however, requires a new way of working a deliberate effort to enable the organization to lead change in its market. Since the goal of strategic renewal is to move ahead of a crisis, these change efforts are more difficult to motivate, fund, and lead. Just why should the organization renew itself when there is no crisis? These proactive change efforts are about learning more rapidly and shaping the future more competently than your competitors. There are countless examples of underfunded, underled proactive transformations.

...

Nothing breeds complacency like success. The point for maximum strategic paranoia is when you are at the top of your game."

Por isto é que são tão difícil saltos na produtividade agregada com os incumbentes. 

Trechos retirados de "Lead and disrupt: how to solve the innovator's dilemma" de Charles A O' Reilly III and Michael L. Tushman. 

segunda-feira, junho 12, 2023

A evolução da produtividade (parte V)

Parte IVParte IIIParte II e Parte I.

Ainda há dias citei aqui, na Parte I, o "famoso Zé Reis":

"As empresas "acantonam-se no lado fácil da economia."

Nas últimas semanas tenho lido/relido "Lead and disrupt: how to solve the innovator's dilemma" de Charles A O' Reilly III and Michael L. Tushman. Houve uma altura em que achei o livro deslocado da realidade portuguesa por causa dos casos utilizados (CIBA, CISCO, IBM, ...), e por causa dos recursos que essas organizações conseguem mobilizar. Agora, quase a chegar ao fim do livro começo a perceber que a dimensão das empresas é irrelevante. Se tantas e tantas empresas grandes, com vastos recursos financeiros à disposição, e com gente carregada de cursos, por norma não conseguem dar a volta e valorizar a exploration, porque a explotation seca tudo à volta, porque seria mais fácil para uma PME com escassez de recursos financeiros e escassez de quadros?

"CEOs or business unit leaders are often reluctant to challenge the established business. But failing to confront this directly legitimates resistance within the organization and allows warring tribes to emerge within the ranks. Business units defend their turf at the expense of broader organizational goals. The senior team must both understand and own the tension between its historically anchored business and its more future-oriented explorations. If, as we saw at Havas, the tension between tribes is not managed, it will be only "resolved" when the innovation is killed or sidelined."

Por isso, faz ainda mais sentido pensar nos mastins dos Baskerville e na receita irlandesa. Que condições criar para que outras empresas, de outros escalões de valor acrescentado e sectores apareçam?

domingo, junho 11, 2023

A evolução da produtividade (parte IV)

Parte IIIParte II e Parte I.

Em Acerca do Evangelho do Valor uso esta equação:

A maioria das empresas trabalha para reduzir os custos, trabalha o denominador. Uma minoria valoriza acima de tudo o trabalhar o numerador. 

Quem mete todas as fichas no denominador acaba quase sempre na chamada race to the bottom (ver parte III):

No último livro de Seth Godin, "The Song of Significance: A New Manifesto for Teams" pode ler-se:
"The truth is simple: Widget production [Moi ici: Trabalhar o denominador] is fairly straightforward to measure and increase. But those metrics (and methods) don't work for human interactions, insight, or innovation. [Moi ici: Trabalhar o numerador]
...
When we consider the four kinds of work, we can lay them out in a two-by two grid with stakes and trust as the two axes.
High-stakes, low-trust work is the work assigned by the industrialist. [Moi ici: Trabalhar o denominador até mais não, solução para lidar com commodities] This is meeting spec. Test and measure. Surveillance. Traditional management lives in this quadrant. This is how you successfully run a fast-food franchise. Every customer is important, and every output needs to be identical.
Low-stakes, low-trust work is similar, except it's easily outsourced. This isn't work your organization needs to take seriously or personally.
...
The next quadrant is for work that is low stakes but high trust. This is the work of culture creation, of community, of people we care about showing up each day to contribute a bit to the whole. The work is consistent, but it's human, not industrial. The shifts caused by pandemic disruptions, outsourcing, work from home, and AI have disrupted this quadrant.
And the final quadrant, the most important one, is the work with high stakes and high trust. This is significant work, important work, work on the edge. This is the work that creates human value as we connect with and respect the individuals who create it.
It doesn't pay to industrialize this work or to create it under duress. Because then it becomes industrialized and once again joins the race to the bottom.
...
This is a race you don't want to run. Because you might win. Or worse, come in second.
This is the industrialist's race, the race of productivity. [Moi ici: Não esquecer esta frase "the race of productivity", voltaremos a ela numa próxima parte. Recordar Reinert e o Uganda. Por que não associamos produtividade a high trust? Talvez por causa da doença dos engenheiros] This is the challenge of more for less, of mass-market quality at scale.
The race to the bottom also offers low prices, average quality, and plenty of room for excuses about our lack of humanity and a focus on the short term. The race to the bottom is filled with shortcuts and with competitors who are willing to sacrifice integrity for a slight edge.
At first, heading to the bottom is thrilling, because a small head start feels like an extraordinary boon. The sales and profits quickly arrive.
But inevitably, when a competitor shows up, it becomes a race. And to win that race, all the elements that attracted you to the work quickly disappear."

Continua.

sábado, junho 10, 2023

Curiosidade do dia

A pontaria:

Evolução das exportações em 2023

O meu habitual painel de controlo sobre as exportações com base nos dados do INE para os quatro primeiros meses do ano:


Alguns sectores com desempenho muito positivo, a crescer a dois dígitos (um com um crescimento verdadeiramente pornográfico - o dos produtos farmacêuticos - no ano passado o salto deu-se em Maio)

Vários com desempenho negativo, algo que não se viu no ano passado (vestuário, cerâmica, plásticos).

Crescimento marginal do sector do calçado - a minha experiência pessoal é um bom exemplo da heterogeneidade de um sector. Em simultâneo estórias de falta de trabalho e de excesso de trabalho, julgo que decorrentes do tipo de clientes servidos.

Mobiliário a crescer muito mais do que em anos anteriores.

Fabrico de máquinas teve o melhor mês de sempre. BTW, ontem no Twitter @kamilkazani publicou esta imagem:

O engraçado é andar há dias a pensar no que seria repetir-se aquela transição dos anos 60-70 com a deslocalização de produção na Alemanha para outros países europeus (não esquecendo o efeito do banhista gordo).






sexta-feira, junho 09, 2023

Curiosidade do dia

Este tweet:

Faz-me lembrar um episódio do "Yes Minister" - Series 2, Episode 1 - The Compassionate Society.

"há edifícios e pessoal onde não há julgamentos" - um hospital carregado de funcionários mas sem doentes porque não há verba para os médicos.