"El coronavirus actúa como acelerador de cambios que ya estaban en marcha...Acerca da China e da globalização:
los riesgos sociales, políticos, económicos e industriales tienden cada vez más a escapar de las instituciones de control y protección de la sociedad industrial.
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Igual que algunas guerras fueron un acelerador del progreso tecnológico e industrial de países como Estados Unidos, Reino Unido o Alemania, por no hablar de su efecto en antiguas civilizaciones, el crack del Covid-19 puede acelerar transformaciones que ya estaban en marcha."
"The so-called trade war was already stirring a much more unfavourable external environment for China from the standpoint of trade and foreign direct investment. The pandemic has jolted governments around the world to re-think China relations, and confirmed the doubts of companies already reconsidering supply chain strategies and the vulnerability of sole-source suppliers.
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There is no question, though, that the coronavirus pandemic has opened up a new and dangerous front in tensions between China and the West, which will cast long shadows over the global system long after the worst of the pandemic is behind us. It has also rocked China’s economy in ways that no one predicted, compounding the structural headwinds that were in any event pointing to a decade of much slower economic growth. More suddenly than we could have expected, China now has a major unemployment problem. From an economic perspective, we may have arrived at what we could call ‘Peak China’."
"Take medical supplies. In 2018 China alone supplied about 42% of the world’s exports of personal protective equipment. Almost three-quarters of Italy’s imported blood thinners come from China; so do 60% of the ingredients for antibiotics imported by Japan. Such dependence on any country seems unwise. Such dependence on China, which has been known to abuse its market dominance, seems idiotic. Smaller, poorer countries have little choice but to build stockpiles. But the bigger, richer countries and blocs are thinking of ways to shake up the status quo.
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Those businesses, and their peers, are currently in crisis-management mode. When the dust gets to settling, they have some reconfiguring to do. Adjusting their supply chains will probably accelerate the trend towards regionalisation, particularly in complex cases where assemblies cross borders repeatedly. This will have the knock-on effect, desired by some, of reducing the centrality of China.
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other strategy companies are developing: globalisation with fewer Chinese characteristics. Last October a survey of American multinationals found that around 40% were either considering or in the process of relocating manufacturing or sourcing outside of China. A more recent survey suggested that 24% were planning to adjust their sourcing outside of China as a result of covid-19.
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For some companies, this is not a straightforward retrenchment, but an embrace of what is known as “China+1”. The strategy is still to use Chinese suppliers, not least so as to go on serving the very attractive Chinese market, but also to encourage suppliers elsewhere in case something goes wrong.
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In the longer run, and once companies have more cash to spare, it is possible that they will attempt to set up new clusters of production. Mike Jette of GEP, a supply chain consultancy, reports hearing from some electronics manufacturers that they want to get 30-40% of their supply chain within the same region as the customer, leaving around half in China."
Acerca do futuro do retalho
"Amazon.com hurt many retailers. Coronavirus will finish some of them off.
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Even as malls and stores begin to reopen, the Covid-19 pandemic has taken a toll on an industry already battered by the shift to online shopping. More than two million retail jobs disappeared in April as many stores closed.
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About 100,000 stores are expected to close over the next five years—more than triple the number that shut during the previous recession—as ecommerce jumps to a quarter of U.S. retail sales from 15% last year, UBS estimated. The turbocharged shift to e-commerce is expected to further depress profit margins and accelerate a shakeout in a country that already had too much bricks-and-mortar space for an increasingly digital world.
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“If this isn’t the retail apocalypse I don’t know what would be,” said Sarah Wyeth, the lead analyst for retail and restaurants at S&P Global Ratings. Ms. Wyeth estimated there is a 50% chance that 19 retailers tracked by S&P will default on their debt. Five retailers defaulted during the 2008 recession.
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“Going back over the last 20 years, the worst year for closures was 2009 when 2% of stores closed,” said UBS apparel and footwear analyst Jay Sole. “Our forecast calls for 2% of stores to close every year into 2025.”"
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