"Since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China has scrupulously adhered to its WTO commitments and abided by the decisions of its judges. Yet the Chinese economy may be fundamentally incompatible with the spirit of any rules-based trading system because the Chinese party-state has enormous power to tell companies what to do. Communist Party cells are embedded in most Chinese companies, even the subsidiaries of non-Chinese firms. Executives at many large companies, including those without direct government ownership, are party members, which makes them eligible for promotions and favors—and vulnerable to party discipline.Even those who are not party members often attempt to affiliate with Beijing’s priorities. The legal academics Curtis J. Milhaupt and Wentong Zheng “identified ninety-five out of the top one hundred private firms and eight out of the top ten Internet firms whose founder or de facto controller is currently or formerly a member of central or local party-state organizations such as People’s Congresses and People’s Political Consultative Conferences.” Regulators can and do bring in executives for interviews on any subject that concerns them. The Chinese financial system is dominated by state-owned entities, which gives the party leverage to help companies that promote its objectives and to punish those that do not. Milhaupt and Zheng note that private firms have “little autonomy from discretionary state intervention in business judgment” because “the state exercises significant extra-legal control rights over private firms.”In this system, there is little need for tariffs to direct domestic demand toward domestic production. Executives can simply be told to pick Chinese suppliers over foreign ones."
quinta-feira, dezembro 31, 2020
"Apply simple rules to guide decisions"
"Apply simple rules to guide decisions.
“Any complex task is best approached by flattening hierarchies. [Moi ici: Num mundo a ficar cada vez mais complexo há tanta gente a querer controlar isto e aquilo, a querer microgerir] It gets everybody feeling like they’re in the inner circle, so that they develop a sense of ownership.”
The strategy implication here, as throughout market shaping, is distributed leadership. Let as many individuals as possible lead investment decisions and other market development. This minimizes the circle time between your stimulus (or probe) and the market’s response, and so accelerates learning. Now, in complex market systems, total control is impossible; you need another leadership mechanism.
One attractive option for managing complexity is so-called simple rules. Simple rules are some often quite specific guidelines which help individuals deal with mission-critical processes and situations and enable fast decisions and rapid adaptations to volatile circumstances, while abiding by the overall strategy of the firm. Essentially, simple rules bridge the gap between strategy and execution.
There cannot be too many simple rules and they need to be tailored to the individuals using them and the procedures where they are applied. You should not copy simple rules as they also should differentiate the firm from other actors. They must also give people latitude to exercise discretion.
Specifically, decision rules set boundaries (“we do not acquire firms that have more than 75 employees”), prioritize alternatives (“our manufacturing capacity will be allocated based on a product’s gross margin”), and establish stopping points for when you exit a project (“any project that loses its key member will be stopped”).
By contrast, process rules tell people how to execute tasks or coordinate action (“our R&D staff must rotate through customer service”) and establish the proper timing of tasks (“product development must not take longer than 18 months”).
The appeal of simple rules is manifold. They can be used when recruiting (new people need to agree to the rules). They speed up execution (less haggling about how to prioritize). And they function as sense makers for individuals (“when business becomes complicated, strategy needs to be simple”)."
Trechos retirados de "Conquering Complexity With Simple Rules"
quarta-feira, dezembro 30, 2020
"não é fácil encontrar "eficácia operacional""
"In MBA programs, students are taught that companies can’t expect to compete on the basis of internal managerial competencies because they’re just too easy to copy. Operational effectiveness—doing the same thing as other companies but doing it exceptionally well—is not a path to sustainable advantage in the competitive universe. To stay ahead, the thinking goes, a company must stake out a distinctive strategic position—doing something different than its rivals. This is what the C-suite should focus on, leaving middle and lower-level managers to handle the nuts and bolts of managing the organization and executing plans."
terça-feira, dezembro 29, 2020
Curiosidade do dia
"todos têm de mudar (porque mudou o campo de possibilidades)"
Interessante traduzir este texto de Joaquim Aguiar no Jornal de Negócios de ontem para o mundo das empresas.
"E se a
política[estratégia] for entendida como a articulação sustentada entre as possibilidades e os interesses, a estabilidade política[de gestão] não poderá ser concebida como a eterna repetição do mesmo. A estabilidade política[de gestão] só existe se houver o permanente ajustamento dos interesses às possibilidades.
E se as possibilidades mudam (estão sempre a mudar), os interesses também terão de mudar (mas resistem sempre à mudança, mesmo quando se trata apenas de mudar o modo de realizar interesses que persistem na sua forma inicial apesar do que já mudou).
As crises políticas surgem quando todos têm de mudar (porque mudou o campo de possibilidades) mas há muitos que não querem mudar (nem se resignam a reconhecer que a realidade efectiva das coisas já não é o que costumava ser). E a crise é
política[de estratégia], porque é a política[estratégia] que tem a função de articular as possibilidades com os interesses, configurando as expectativas e os comportamentos sociais em função do que é a alteração das circunstâncias.
política[empresarial] provocada pelo desajustamento dos interesses às possibilidades, a resposta dos políticos[líderes] reformistas consiste na reconfiguração dos interesses para os tornar compatíveis com as possibilidades realmente existentes, mas a resposta dos políticos reversionistas[espertos] insiste na conservação dos interesses mesmo que tenham de impor a redefinição do que são as possibilidades e procurem ocultar quem teve responsabilidades na alteração das circunstâncias que reduziu o campo de possibilidades."
segunda-feira, dezembro 28, 2020
Mais um trecho retirado de SMASH: Using Market Shaping to Design New Strategies for Innovation, Value Creation, and Growth de Kaj Storbacka e Suvi Nenonen. Este fez-me logo recordar o esforço do meu parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras:
"Focus on the IFAQs. Here’s another rule of thumb for leaders wishing to improve their organization’s peripheral vision. Dwell less on answers and more on questions. Especially worthwhile are the infrequently asked questions - call them IFAQs if you will. And since we’ve been citing notable quotes from quotable notables, when approaching market shaping, leaders should take Voltaire’s advice. The French philosopher and wit tells us to “judge a man [sic] by his questions rather than by his answers.” Questioning orthodoxies makes your firm more inquisitive, intelligent, and vital. Finding a single pertinent new question can generate more insight into your market system’s resource potentiality than studying all the existing answers. After all, those answers share the bias of being framed by the old questions. Yet, while management consultants and incoming CEOs as new brooms sweeping clean are in the habit of asking tough, fundamental questions, it’s far rarer to find a leader who will build and maintain a culture of continuing to ask the hard questions."
Quando se quer moldar o mercado a uma nova realidade é preciso olhar para a realidade, olhar para as peças do mercado e procurar imaginar outras possibilidades, procurar conceber outras combinações.
domingo, dezembro 27, 2020
Uma sequência de projectos em vez de um único projecto
Na linha do que escrevi em:
"First, it is hard to envision the specific tasks that actually need to get done to achieve a big goal. No matter how well you plan for a big task, there are certain details that are not obvious until you have completed it....Second, for very large tasks you often do not get feedback on your success until many of the pieces of that project are in place. Even if particular elements of the task appear to be going well, the success of the large-scale project requires integrating all of the specific tasks in a coordinated fashion....By starting out with smaller projects that encompass the range of tasks involved in larger projects, you help to deflate some of this overconfidence. You learn what is involved in expert performance, and you get plenty of chances to refine your abilities."
sábado, dezembro 26, 2020
Em Portugal ...
"There are always limits to the effectiveness of any unbalanced growth model....After the global financial crisis, the Chinese government responded to the collapse in external demand for Chinese manufactures by ramping up domestic investment even further. Without a commensurate increase in profitable investment projects, however, the result was simply a sharp increase in the domestic debt burden....In China, the GDP growth rate is an input into the system. It is set early in the year as the GDP growth target for that year and represents the amount of growth needed to accommodate social and political objectives, among which of course is the desire to keep unemployment low....This creates powerful—and dangerous—incentives. China’s provincial and municipal governments control most of the credit creation within the banking system, and Chinese banks rarely have to write down loans for projects that cannot service the debt. The easiest way for officials to hit their targets is therefore to tell the state-run banks to lend to favored companies to invest in as much infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate as necessary. Whether the investments are worthwhile is irrelevant. [Moi ici: Lembram-se dos arrepios?] All that matters is that the quantity of spending generates enough reported GDP to meet the central government’s objectives."
sexta-feira, dezembro 25, 2020
Um Santo Natal!
"Naquela região havia pastores que passavam a noite no campo guardando os rebanhos. Apareceu-lhes um anjo e a luz gloriosa do Senhor envolveu-os. Ficaram muito assustados, mas o anjo disse-lhes: «Não tenham medo! Venho aqui trazer-vos uma boa nova que será motivo de grande alegria para todo o povo. Pois nasceu hoje, na cidade de David, o vosso Salvador que é Cristo, o Senhor!"
quinta-feira, dezembro 24, 2020
quarta-feira, dezembro 23, 2020
A fase "wonder"
"dei comigo a pensar que a inovação que o calçado precisa nesta altura não é mais do mesmo, não é a “sustained innovation” de que Clayton Christensen falava, e ao qual o fluxograma acima se aplicaAs empresas de calçado devem manter e tirar o máximo partido da actividade que conseguem ter através do modelo de negócio actual. Paralelamente, devem criar uma empresa, ainda que virtual, dedicada a desenvolver o negócio do futuro. E para desenvolver o negócio do futuro essa empresa tem de se comportar como uma startup: sem clientes, sem negócios, apenas com hipóteses de produtos e de clientes."
terça-feira, dezembro 22, 2020
Com quem temos de contar?
"Picking up on those necessary actors, the first step in promoting a market-shaping vision is to figure out the “minimum viable system” of your market. What channels are needed to reach the customers? What happens between your customers and the end user? What kind of sub-contractors and business partners will you require? Working out the requisite value chain is only half the job, though. In addition to the physical value chain, your future market system most likely needs other actors in it....Okay, so you’ve identified the actors in your minimum viable market system. Now do some math. How does the envisioned change impact each respective actor? Who stands to gain? Who will lose? Will some actors remain unaffected? Anecdotal evidence suggests that those market-shaping initiatives which both (1) create a positive change to all actors involved and (2) distribute the added value relatively evenly across the network enjoy the best chances of succeeding....Note the limits to spreading your market-shaping love, though. It’s only the actors in your minimum viable market system whom you have to treat nicely and fairly! Market shaping can, and does, generate losers! That’s why ignoring market shaping just isn’t an option. And it’s half the reason we’ve urged you to shape markets yourself lest some other player who doesn’t need you in their minimum viable system gets in first and forces you out. Some market-shaping strategies have, in fact, bankrupted companies. And while the word “disruption” may inspire dreams of deliciously unreasonable wealth in the minds of would-be disrupters, it will strike fear into the hearts of the professions and sectors that would be disrupted."
segunda-feira, dezembro 21, 2020
Não percebo a lógica...
"Pergunta - Avizinha-se um volume de investimento comunitário inédito em Portugal, mas há um domínio espanhol nas grandes obras. Há capacidade nacional? [Moi ici: Antes de mais recordemos que o negócio da construção pública é um negócio de preço. Ganha quem apresentar a proposta com o preço mais baixo. Preço mais baixo é o negócio em que as empresas grandes, eficientes, organizadas, capazes de tirar partido da escala têm vantagem competitiva]Resposta - Capacidade tem de haver. O sector da construção sofreu muito. Subsistem no mercado poucas empresas grandes, como acontecia há 10 anos. Mas também se está a formar uma nova geração de empresas, com muita qualidade, que também precisam de oportunidade de crescer, e essa dimensão tem de ser dada cá....Pergunta - Com que tipo de apoios?Resposta - Em termos de concorrência, tem de ser repensada a questão dos preços anormalmente baixos, porque vai pagar-se no futuro. E depois há que aproveitar alguma da capacidade instalada que existe. A construção também precisa do ‘compre português’ e de apoios à internacionalização. [Moi ici: Portanto, as empresas espanholas, maiores que as portuguesas, conseguem ganhar os concursos públicos em Portugal. Presumo que sem necessidade de apoio do governo português]...Pergunta - Mas como?Resposta - Basta olhar para os nossos vizinhos de Espanha. Sabe de alguma empresa estrangeira — não é portuguesa — que lá esteja a trabalhar? Uma só? Francesa, inglesa ou brasileira? Eu não.Pergunta - É possível proteger o mercado sem violar a legislação europeia? [Moi ici: Por que é que o jornal parte logo do princípio que as empresas espanholas precisam de ser protegidas nos concursos públicos? Se elas são maiores...]Resposta - Se em Espanha o conseguem proteger sem violar a lei, nós também o deveríamos fazer."[Moi ici: Que provas tem o presidente da Mota-Engil de que há protecção?]
“Spain’s experience was not unusual or unrepresentative. Lottery winners often do worse in life than if they had bought a losing ticket. The sudden infusion of money acts like a hit of cocaine and distorts behavior in similarly unhealthy ways. Something similar happens to countries on the receiving end of unsolicited financial inflows. Few societies have been able to absorb sudden, large sums of capital from abroad without experiencing soaring debt, asset bubbles, and economic crises. It is an almost inevitable consequence of a rapid and unexpected increase in real purchasing power.”
Trecho retirado de “Trade Wars Are Class Wars” de Matthew C. Klein.
Até que enfim!
O dia mais importante do ano do meu calendário profano, o dia em que finalmente os dias deixam de diminuir, o Solstício de Inverno:
domingo, dezembro 20, 2020
Market shaping e o timing
"In market shaping as in comedy, timing is everything....shapeability: is your market system currently hot and malleable, or frozen stiff?...mapping the life of market ecosystems over sustained periods, our work has confirmed that markets can behave quite differently over time. Long eras may exhibit relative calm and stability some gradual development, perhaps, but more or less constant basic structure and rules of the game. Punctuating the stability, however, come times of turbulence. At such points, the market undergoes rapid changes and perhaps becomes a completely different market ecosystem.Savvy market shapers seek to time their efforts to coincide with these latter periods of instability, rapid change, or discontinuity....While acknowledging the issue of timing is as much art as science, we offer three more generalized and enduring signs of shapeable markets. First, any major shock or crisis brings turbulence....Short of obvious shocks or crises, a second sign of a shapeable market is rising dissonance or debate in the market from controversy to simply a buzz abroad that “something should change.” Such dissonance is an especially strong indicator of a market-shaping window if it is sustained for a long period of time or if it seems to be increasing in intensity rather than gradually subsiding. Finally, the recent history of the market ecosystem may also divulge clues about its malleability. Recent studies suggest that markets that have assumed their current form through a government-led process or the deliberate market-shaping efforts of a particular firm are more susceptible to continued market shaping than those which have evolved organically, without strong influence from any particular market actor."
Vivemos tempos maduros para a aplicação generalizada da capacidade de "moldar mercados".
Trechos retirados de SMASH: Using Market Shaping to Design New Strategies for Innovation, Value Creation, and Growth de Kaj Storbacka e Suvi Nenonen.
sábado, dezembro 19, 2020
"Easy in, easy out, next!"
O Hélder Ferreira publicou há dias este texto no FB:
"Years ago, I produced a record for a very skilled duo. They were incredibly hardworking and committed to their art. In order to survive, they performed three hundred days a year, and they lived in a van, driving each day to a new town, playing at a local coffeehouse, sleeping in the van, then repeating it all the next day.In most towns, there are a few places like this—if you’ve issued a few CDs and are willing to work for cheap, you can get booked without too much trouble.These cafés are not good clients. Easy in, easy out, next!What I helped these musicians understand is that going from town to town and working with easy gigs was wasting their effort and hiding their art. What they needed to do was stay in one town, earn fans, play again, earn fans, move to a better venue, and do it again. And again.Working their way up by claiming what they’d earned: fans."
Como são os clientes da sua empresa? "Easy in, easy out, next!"
“By 1825 problems were already beginning to lay themselves out in a pattern that would later become familiar. It became clear, for example, that many of the investments were of very questionable value, a common problem whenever a small country attempts to absorb large financial inflows. There are simply not enough productive opportunities available. Instead, the excess credit invariably finances boondoggles, surging imports of consumer goods, or, as was often the case in the 1820s, imports of weapons to fight one of the many civil wars that immediately broke out after independence from Spain.”
E comparar com:
"A comissária europeia Elisa Ferreira assinalou esta quinta-feira, num evento online, que, "ao fim destes anos todos de apoio maciço de fundos estruturais, Portugal ainda é um país atrasado", e apelou a "uma leitura territorializada das políticas"."
Trecho retirado de “Trade Wars Are Class Wars” de Matthew C. Klein.
sexta-feira, dezembro 18, 2020
Evolução, eficiência, inovação (parte II)
Ainda ontem na parte I escrevi:
"pensei naqueles membros da tríade que no tempo da troika diziam que o problema era o euro... santa ignorância - na fase da paz todos ganham até que aparece alguém, que está do outro lado daquela barreira negra que promove a inércia, e come quota de mercado aos que ainda estão na fase da paz..."
Estava longe de pensar que logo no próprio dia seria brindado com esta pérola:
"Os que, à direita, criticam a estagnação económica do país nos últimos 20 anos fazem-no sem nunca referir o principal fator de estagnação: a adesão ao euro."— Bloco de Esquerda (@EsquerdaNet) December 17, 2020
Postado por @vicenteaferreir em @LadrBic https://t.co/1ydODjGOfy
Vinte anos de mudanças tremendas no contexto, provocadas pela adesão da China à Organização Mundial do Comércio e pela internet, foram aumentando as possibilidades de quebrar as barreiras da inércia.
Por que é que tantos países que eram mais pobres do que nós e que também aderiram ao euro, já nos ultrapassaram?
Vamos ficar todos bem
"o setor europeu de retalho de vestuário e calçado está a ser altamente penalizado pela pandemia. Até setembro, a queda acumulada ascende a 24,4%, de acordo com dados do World Footwear.
O índice de volume de negócios no setor de retalho na União Europeia nos artigos especializados de vestuário, calçado e artigos em couro tem revelado perdas constantes ao longo dos primeiros nove meses do ano, sempre na casa dos dois dígitos, revelando-se mesmo superior a 20% quando comparado com o mesmo período do ano anterior. No verão, nos meses de julho a setembro, verificou-se uma ligeira recuperação, ainda assim insuficiente para a hecatombe desde o início pandemia.
“Trata-se da confirmação de um sentimento generalizado, mas que ajuda a perceber melhor a dinâmica do mercado”, considera Luis Onofre. Para o Presidente da APICCAPS “estas quebras afetam particularmente as empresas portuguesas que, exportando mais de 95% da sua produção, têm na União Europeia o seu mercado de referência”.
Curiosamente, é em Espanha a e Portugal onde o setor do retalho na fileira moda mais está a sofrer, com perdas acumuladas de 33 e 31%, respetivamente. Os melhores registos ocorrem na Polónia (quebra de 10%), Lituânia (perda de 12%) e Estónia (recuo de 14%).
Entre os mercados de referência para as empresas portuguesas de calçado, o retalho de moda no Reino Unido caiu 29% entre janeiro a setembro deste ano. Em Itália o recuo acumulado é de 27% e em França 25% relativamente ao ano anterior. Na Alemanha o prejuízo ronda os 22% e na Holanda 16%."
Trechos retirados de "Retalho europeu colapsa"
quinta-feira, dezembro 17, 2020
Evolução, eficiência, inovação
- a tendência é a caminhada inexorável da concorrência para a extrema direita onde está a comoditização e reina o eficientismo
- a libertação de recursos proporcionada pela eficiência permite a emergência de novas práticas na fase de novo "wonder" que geram novas fontes de valor
quarta-feira, dezembro 16, 2020
As associações e o status quo
Um texto interessante retirado do livro SMASH: Using Market Shaping to Design New Strategies for Innovation, Value Creation, and Growth de Kaj Storbacka e Suvi Nenonen.
"An industry association promotes an ordered market that is hospitable and less risky for participants. It does so not only by standardizing market elements but by creating a confident common language. Furthermore, governments prefer to deal with associations rather than with more nakedly self-interested individual firms.
However, like events and awards, industry associations generally favor the status quo. Worse, a reactionary association might actively oppose market-wide changes if detrimental to some members. And, unlike events and awards, industry associations derive authority by being exclusive. So, if your market-shaping strategy is clearly at odds with the current association’s agenda, our advice is to prepare for conflict."
Quantas vezes, ao longo dos anos, escrevi aqui sobre os conservadores lideres das associações empresariais, mais preocupados em salvar o passado do que em abraçar o futuro... dizem que tenho mau feitio.
terça-feira, dezembro 15, 2020
Vamos viver uma época de partos difíceis
"We found that populations under strong selection ... subsequently evolved ... most rapidly ... Compared to populations under weak or no selection, they reached higher green fluorescence during each generation of phase II and evolved a green emission peak more rapidly. Strong selection promoted both the elimination of deleterious mutations and the accumulation of foldability-improving mutations. As a result, proteins under strong selection evolved higher efficiency of protein folding (foldability) and, to an even greater extent, higher robustness to mutations than proteins under weak or no selection."
Vivemos, viveremos, pois tempos de evolução acelerada...
Talvez por isso nos últimos dias tenho encontrado vários artigos sobre a transformação das empresas. Por exemplo, "Why Business Transformation Efforts Often Fail".
No Twitter ainda uso como avatar a mesma imagem desde 2004:
- O sentido de urgência (Agosto de 2008)
- Sentido de urgência (Abril de 2016)
"Not Establishing a Great Enough Sense of Urgency“Bad business results are both a blessing and a curse in the first phase. On the positive side, losing money does catch people’s attention. But it also gives less maneuvering room. With good business results, the opposite is true: convincing people of the need for change is much harder, but you have more resources to help make changes.”...Strong leadership is required to rally a company into action. “A paralyzed senior management often comes from having too many managers and not enough leaders,” said Kotter. “Management’s mandate is to minimize risk and to keep the current system operating. Change, by definition, requires creating a new system, which in turn always demands leadership. Phase one in a renewal process typically goes nowhere until enough real leaders are promoted or hired into senior-level jobs.”"
"Lacking a Vision
“In every successful transformation effort that I have seen, the guiding coalition develops a picture of the future that is relatively easy to communicate and appeals to customers, stockholders, and employees,” noted Kotter.
[Moi ici: Lembrei-me logo da TAP ao ler o trecho que se segue] Undercommunicating the Vision by a Factor of Ten
“Transformation is impossible unless hundreds or thousands of people are willing to help, often to the point of making short-term sacrifices, wrote Kotter. “Employees will not make sacrifices, even if they are unhappy with the status quo unless they believe that useful change is possible. Without credible communication, and a lot of it, the hearts and minds of the troops are never captured.”
Transformative changes are generally based on new, innovative ideas that few may understand in their early stages. It’s thus important to explain what’s unique and different about the new innovation to key constituencies, including clients, partners, analysts, reporters, and, most important, the company’s own employees. Effective communications are thus essential."
— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) December 14, 2020
In 2018, highest median gross hourly earnings were recorded in 🇩🇰 Denmark (€27.2) and lowest in 🇧🇬 Bulgaria (€2.4).
How about your country ❓
How about gross hourly earnings expressed in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS*) ❓#StatisticsExplained
➡️ https://t.co/gwO9HZiweu pic.twitter.com/gnT3dJvBdf
Já só falta a Bulgária ultrapassar-nos... pensem nisso.
Socialismo é uma política robusta, qualquer que seja o país ou o estado de desenvolvimento, gera pobreza! Recordo esta previsão.
segunda-feira, dezembro 14, 2020
"can to some extent be indirectly influenced, supplied, or brought into existence"
"For a market to work and develop, more actors than sellers and buyers are needed: sub-contractors, providers of complementary products or services, intermediaries, information providers, market research agencies, media, various interest groups, and regulators, to name just some. Actors play certain roles. To execute these roles, each actor requires certain know-how and to be configured or connected in certain ways. [Moi ici: Ou incentivados a participar no ecossistem. Não através de chantagem ou de suborno, mas indo ao encontro do que procuram e valorizam] Market ecosystems also require various forms of infrastructure, ranging from simple and often self-evident things like roads and electricity to more sophisticated things such as reliable data-communication links and fuel distribution systems.
Because your optimal market might benefit from more, or fewer, or different actors, playing different roles, in different configurations and equipped with different resources. And your optimal market might require more, or less, or different, or differently supplied, material and immaterial infrastructure. Indeed, if your market is still mostly the twinkle of a brilliant innovation in your eye and you have yet to create the market itself, you certainly won’t have enough actors or infrastructure yet! You’ll have to populate that space.
Happily, all these different elements the actors, their roles and know-how, and the infrastructure can to some extent be indirectly influenced, supplied, or brought into existence. Companies with an ambition to create new market systems or shape existing ones need to do exactly that. And we’ll be distinguishing here more between making new markets and shaping existing ones."
Trechos retirados do capítulo II do livro SMASH: Using Market Shaping to Design New Strategies for Innovation, Value Creation, and Growth de Kaj Storbacka e Suvi Nenonen.
domingo, dezembro 13, 2020
Não é propriamente uma empresa de vão de escada:
"But Ideo has shared with Fast Company that, due to the economic downturn of COVID-19, the company will be laying off 8% of its global workforce. Its current headcount is 725 people."
Vamos ficar todos bem ...
sábado, dezembro 12, 2020
Mais um sintoma da degradação do contexto competitivo da economia portuguesa, "De Estarreja para Hambach: Ineos já tem fábrica para produzir o Grenadier".
Um país em que o ministro da Economia ousa fazer esta comparação:
"“Deixar desaparecer a TAP era como deixar desaparecer a Autoeuropa ou pior. A TAP faturou o ano passado 3.400 milhões de euros e fez compras a 1.700 empresas portugueses, sem ser combustível. A TAP é uma das maiores exportadoras nacionais e (…) contribui muito para a economia nacional e para o emprego qualificado em toda a cadeia de valor”, referiu Pedro Siza Vieira, num debate sobre política setorial, na Assembleia da República."
Como se confunde facturação com lucro?
Como se compara uma empresa que gera lucro ano após ano com uma empresa que não ganha dinheiro há mais de 10 anos e precisa de dinheiro sacado aos contribuintes líquidos para sobreviver?
Imaginem um "patrão" de Maserati
sexta-feira, dezembro 11, 2020
"Outcomes aren’t inevitable"
"The best history, Foster told me, is written when we understand the past in the light of a future that never happened. But it’s much harder to write that way, because the narrative is so complex and contingent.
What was difficult but thrilling about Foster’s history was that it seemed to be saying: at any moment, it could have been, could be, different. Outcomes weren’t inevitable; history wasn’t about manifest destinies but unexpected and unforeseen futures. What happened next took place because of choices people made, people without the information we have today and with information perhaps now lost. History wasn’t the runaway train on which we all sat like helpless, terrified children. This different view of history quivered with possibilities—some good, some bad, some seized, others overlooked—but all alive and human.
Think about what happens when you apply that mind-set to the future: at any moment, it could be different. Outcomes aren’t inevitable. What happens next is a choice.
Knowing that history doesn’t repeat itself is what makes it useful. We may glean what appear to be themes—humiliation provokes tyranny, for example—that make us pay attention to new information we might otherwise ignore or marginalize.
History doesn’t repeat itself because we keep changing and it keeps changing us. It can’t offer recipes but it can provide raw material with which to construct fresh combinations, drawn from where we have been, where we are today, and where we wish to be tomorrow. That it offers neither inevitability nor guarantees isn’t its weakness but its greatest power."
Trechos retirados de "Uncharted" de Margaret Heffernan.
quinta-feira, dezembro 10, 2020
"Limit the amount of money you have around"
Um artigo sobre o problema de ter demasiado dinheiro, de não ter constrangimentos, "What We Can Learn From The Failure Of Quibi":
"I’ve launched countless businesses in my career and one thing I’ve learned is that you need to keep capital scarce in the early days. Limiting the amount of money you have around forces people to face up to problems and solve them. You can’t ignore warning signs when you’re close to broke.
Quibi, on the other hand, failed because it did ignore signals."
Outro excelente ponto é:
"Conventional marketing strategy dictates that you identify the largest addressable market for your product. That, after all, is where you can reach the most people, scale your business and earn the most money. So it made sense for Quibi to target Millennials in search of “quick bites” to watch while on line at Starbucks.
Yet when you’re launching something new and different, you don’t want the largest addressable market which, almost by definition, already has a lot of companies serving it. Instead, you want to identify a hair-on-fire use case—a problem that somebody needs solved so badly that they almost literally have their hair on fire. That’s where you’ll find customers to put up with the inevitable bugs and glitches that always come up."
quarta-feira, dezembro 09, 2020
Repensar a situação
terça-feira, dezembro 08, 2020
"a boring bureaucratic arrangement to keep the status quo"
"Have you noticed the definition of a management system?
I know that a lot of people don't care about this definition thing, but if you work with management systems, I invite you to read the definition of the ISO 9000 standard.
Management system - System to establish a policy, an orientation, a set of priorities. Then, translate these priorities into objectives, into concrete challenges. Then work, transform the organization to meet those objectives.
While writing the management system’s policy one must include in the text a commitment to continuous improvement. Thus, a management system must aspire to continuously improve its performance.
Today's organization generates today's performance. Today's performance is a perfectly normal product of the current organization. The commitment to improvement means aspiring to a desired future performance better than the current one. Aspiring for future performance better than the present means transforming the current organization into the organization of the desired future, the only one capable of generating the desired future results in a perfectly normal and sustainable way.
In this way, maintaining a management system means continuously investing in transforming the current organization into the organization of the desired future. However, in many audits conducted in 2020 I found the same non-conformity:
Organizations should seek to continuously improve the suitability, adequacy, and effectiveness of the management system to improve its performance. The organization did not demonstrate the establishment of improvement objectives for its management system. All the objectives foreseen for 2020, associated with the system indicators, refer to the same objectives of 2019.
From my initiation to systemic thinking, I remember this image:
segunda-feira, dezembro 07, 2020
"Come on! Esta gente não analisa os números?"
O título tirei-o deste postal de Outubro último, "Tamanho, produtividade e a receita irlandesa".
Se há coisa que não gosto é de gente que não analisa os números. Gente que fala de cor e constrói explicações assentes em areia.
Em Junho último em "that model died this year" escrevi:
"México = Marrocos, Turquia, Roménia e Bulgária."
Em Agosto passado em "A caminho da Sildávia, portanto" escrevi:
"No final da conversa João Duque brinda-nos com uma ilustração da ligeireza com que o mundo académico segue a micro-economia. Segundo João Duque o sucesso do calçado nos últimos anos foi baseado no desenvolvimento de marcas... de marcas? Come on! Quantas marcas ganham dinheiro? Quantas marcas ao fim de 5 anos ainda estão vivas? Desenvolver marca é uma forma de sacar dinheiro de projectos europeus, mesmo que bem intencionada, mas que morre quando acaba o financiamento. O que foi desenvolvido e bem foi a marca "Made in Portugal" para que marcas estrangeiras viessem para Portugal aproveitar a sua "uniqueness" da proximidade produção-consumo (rapidez, flexibilidade, qualidade). BTW, mas é outra conversa, esta uniqueness já se foi graças à Turquia, Roménia, Marrocos, Argélia, Tunísia, Bulgária, ..."
Pelos vistos também estava a incorrer num erro, porque não tinha olhado para os números com olhos de ver. Assim, aproveitei o empréstimo que a colega Rita me fez do World Footwear 2020 Yearbook, publicado pela APICCAPS, e olhei para os números.
Primeiro, na tabela que se segue não vamos encontrar a Argélia porque as exportações são residuais, não chegaram a um milhão de pares em 2019.
O que ressalta é a evolução turca e albanesa. Em 2010 a Turquia exportava cerca de 75 milhões de pares de sapatos, em 2019 exportou 275 milhões de pares a um preço médio de 3.29 USD. A Albânia em 10 anos duplicou as suas exportações. Presumo, pelo preço médio de cada par, que há ali mão de know-how italiano.
Assim, temos dois países próximos do centro da Europa com custos de produção muito baixos.
Lá em cima fala-se de uniqueness, no postal anterior falava-se, metaforicamente, em superpoderes. O factor proximidade ... foi-se. Como li há dias no livro SMASH: Using Market Shaping to Design New Strategies for Innovation, Value Creation, and Growth de Kaj Storbacka e Suvi Nenonen.
"finding a sustainable competitive advantage may not be that important. What is important, however, is that companies have a contingency plan to deal with the upcoming prospects for an expansion of available resources or possible constraints created by other actors in the market."
Tudo é transiente, tudo é temporário.
Qual é o superpoder da sua empresa?
"You wouldn’t hire FedEx to safely transport a fragile large item across the country. Their superpower is speed, not avoiding jostling. On the other hand, an art transport company might take a bit longer to get the vase to your new home, but their white-glove treatment (with actual white gloves) would make them an obvious alternative to FedEx.
“You can choose anyone and we’re anyone” is not a useful way to earn customers, patrons, or supporters. Because if you’re anyone, it’s worth mentioning that a search engine is happy to point people to plenty of other people who are as anyone as you are.
In order to deliver speed at a low price, FedEx had to commit. They made a significant number of choices all focused on that one metric. If you try to ship a very large (but very light) box via FedEx, you’ll discover that instead of costing $30, it costs $450. That’s because it breaks their system, and their system is their superpower.
When we think of an artist we admire, we’re naming someone who stands for something. And to stand for something is to commit."
Trecho retirado de "The practice: shipping creative work" de Seth Godin.
domingo, dezembro 06, 2020
"pitching a win-win-win “story”
Três ideias fundamentais retiradas do primeiro capítulo do livro SMASH: Using Market Shaping to Design New Strategies for Innovation, Value Creation, and Growth de Kaj Storbacka e Suvi Nenonen.
Os mercados são mais do que para trocar valor, também servem para co-criar valor:
"The Function of a Market System Is Exchange, for the Purpose of Value Creation
Specifically, markets are CASs of exchange, for the creation of value. And we do need to be very specific about that. Common definitions which include exchange but omit use-value and the value creation aspect sound curiously zero-sum, as though the same resource is simply being shuffled around the system in a grand version of the children’s birthday game pass-the-parcel.
Just as markets divide into supply and demand, so does value divide into exchange value to the supplier and use value to the customer/user. In a firm-focused, production-centric view such as the traditional business strategy approach, value too easily comes to mean what is really only exchange value - the value to the producer or seller - or, worse still, the price.
A user will willingly pay a higher price if she can get more use value out of the product. So use value should be integral to the firm’s market view, and any way to increase use value offers potential gains in exchange value right back. This is where co-creation comes in. The firm’s product is only one component in the customer’s use value."
Os mercados não são um dado, são uma variável:
"Markets Are Socially Constructed, so You Can Reconstruct Them, too
Markets are social systems.
The key point for us is that, being socially constructed, markets can be consciously reconstructed. Because humans can be persuaded, incentivized or, where laws or sheer market power are involved, coerced by other humans, the firm has a means of influencing the human agents and their creations. This is how you can turn social reconstruction to your advantage. Fundamentally, viewing markets as shapeable systems suggests that opportunities are not precursors of strategy; rather they are outcomes of deliberate efforts to shape markets. ... We should not make strategy for a company - we should make strategy for the system. [Moi ici: Isto é tão bom!!! Urdir um ecossistema. Daqui: "Uma empresa que trabalha com o BSC começa por determinar quem são os clientes-alvo! Uma empresa que trabalha com o BSC e comigo, para além dos clientes-alvo tem também de determinar qual é o ecossistema da procura."] Furthermore, strategy ought not to be viewed as winning a zero-sum game; nor ought the focus to be on competing. On the contrary, it should clarify how the company can engage in collaborative activities with market actors (suppliers, customers, and partners) in order to improve the creation of the use value. Companies that can promise improved value creation for several actors simultaneously are the ones most likely to be successful in shaping their respective markets.
The job of the market leader is not to increase own market share at the expense of others, but rather about creating a positive sum game where many market actors grow the market together.[Moi ici: Maximizar o valor para todos os que estão no ecossistema]
The pay-off to all the theory above is that it enables you to become a market shaper.
“What is this market shaping that you are so worked up about?”
Changing the definition of markets from mere exchange mechanisms to a system fostering value creation is not just semantics or purely academic debate. Think about the implications. We’re claiming that, like any other human-made systems, market systems can be changed by companies, governments, and even singular individuals"
Os mercados podem ser trabalhados e manuseados:
"Building on the theoretical insight that, unlike poets, markets are not only born but also made, this strategy takes a new product or service and aims to consciously attract or build the elements of a fully functioning market around it.
What are the main ingredients for shaping markets? This is a question that it takes the rest of the book to answer fully. There is no single formula and no linear progression of steps. It’s about a continuous cycle. And there’s a degree of art to it as well as science. Broadly though, market shaping begins with re-focusing your business definition, which also acts as your frame on the market, so that you can see the rich reality of your market system and training it on the slice of the universe of possible markets which you want to start with. You then need to envisage a new shape for that market system that would benefit your firm more, by capturing a share of extra use value you’ll help create (in other words, co-create) for customers. Whichever other players it requires to effect the change, you’ll need to appeal to them by offering a share in the value creation as well. This involves pitching a win-win-win “story” or narrative about your proposed new shape. [Moi ici: Há anos que prego isto. Por exemplo: "Ganhar-ganhar-ganhar porque passa por orquestrar uma relação que traga vantagens não só à clássica interacção diádica, cliente-fornecedor, mas também a outras combinações"] And you’ll need to time the whole intervention to strike when the market is “hot” and malleable.
Which firms could practice market shaping? … You don’t need market power in the traditional sense of monopolies and oligopolies. In fact, being big can hinder creative thinking of the kind a new strategy requires if the great idea gets tangled up in the red tape of internal processes. However, you need a good idea _ a vision about how to shape your market into a better re-incarnation of that market - because market shaping works only if you are truly able to improve the market. And remember, “improving” means improvement to others as well, not just to you."