domingo, dezembro 31, 2017

Votos de um Bom Ano!

Votos de um Bom ANO para todos, um 2018 com menos fragilismo

But Our Executives Want A Number!

Sempre desconfiei de números que não nos dão pistas sobre o que fazer para melhorar o desempenho. Cada vez sei menos sobre o que fará sentido fazer quando queremos medir a satisfação dos clientes e ganhar algo com isso.

Por isso, li com interesse, o artigo recomendado:

O artigo é muito bom mesmo! E deve ser lido por quem ainda usa ou está a pensar em usar o NPS como indicador.

Sublinho este trecho:
"NPS believers tell us no implementation ever asks only for the number. Every smart implementation follows up with a qualitative question, asking why? Some sophisticated systems will vary the question based on the score, asking promoters “What did we do well?”and detractors “What could we improve?”.
They’re right. The real value is the Why answer. The customer tells you what just happened, and you could improve it (or make sure you don’t break the things that work well).
To these NPS proponents, I tell them that it’s great they are getting this valuable data. Why should they bother with the score question at all? Just ask the qualitative question. Their response is usually some mumbling and huff-puffery about segmentation or indicators or some other mumbo-jumbo that makes no sense."
E este outro:
"But Our Executives Want A Number!...
There are tons of numbers. An infinite number of them, in fact.
Yet, there’s no one number that represents a company’s customer experience. Not even NPS. Yet, that won’t stop us from trying.
We could use a business number, like the number of subscriptions or the amount of churn. We could use sales, net revenues, or profits.
These numbers don’t speak directly to the design of the products or services. They don’t tell us whether the customers are satisfied, or better yet, delighted." 
Como não recuar a 2006 e ao auto-incensamento em "Medir o Grau de Satisfação dos Clientes para quê?"

Só 10%!!!

"some challenges affecting the productivity of Western Europe's workforces are prevalent throughout the region -- among them, low levels of employee engagement. Overall, just 10% of employed residents in Western Europe are engaged -- that is, involved in and enthusiastic about their work. Among the region's 18 countries, this figure tops out at 17% in Norway, and it is well below 10% in France, Italy and Spain. By contrast, among the world's most highly engaged workforces, including the U.S., more than 30% of employees are engaged."
A minha preocupação não é a produtividade. No século XXI, acreditar que a produtividade depende em grande parte do trabalhador é algo que já não faz sentido mas que ainda não saiu das mentes e sebentas. A produtividade aumenta muito mais quando se muda o que se produz do que quando se tenta aumentar a cadência do que se produz.

A minha preocupação é que um terço da vida destas pessoas é visto por elas como uma prisão.

Por isso, sublinhei há dias numa empresa saber, por portas travessas, que têm operárias que mesmo que ganhassem o Euromilhões asseguram que continuariam a vir trabalhar.

Trecho retirado de "State of the Global Workplace"

sábado, dezembro 30, 2017

Acerca de vender

"if you feel like you are asking your customer for a favor when you’re trying to sell something, you’re probably doing it wrong.
The reason that so many people hesitate to go into sales is because they feel that selling is asking for a favor. And the idea that for a living you would bother people, whether there’s people you know or people you don’t, and constantly handle them to get them to do something for you, is an unsavory way to spend your day. The alternative is to realize that no one in a free market buys something unless it’s worth more to them than it costs. In essence, everything is on sale, everything is a bargain that you pay $3 for a bottle of water because it’s worth $5. You donated a million dollars to charity because it’s worth $2 million to you to do so. And if you look at it that way, then the salesperson’s job is to create communication so that value is created. Not just value created for the salesperson, but value that’s created for the customer. And if no value is created, then all you’re doing is bothering people and you’re not really a salesperson.
if you’re busy selling a product that people don’t wanna buy and creating discomfort as you do so, I think you should sell something else. And this choice of selling the thing you believe in as opposed to rolling your eyes and dealing with it everyday for the rest your life, I think the choice is pretty clear. And if you’re a good salesperson, then they’ll be lining out the door for you, to hire you, to get you to be the person who represents this product.
Being the salesperson of last resort, selling the product no one else wants to sell, getting the jobs where you only get paid on commission and you’re barely scraping by because you’re selling lousy stuff to people who don’t want it, well, that’s your choice and you should make a different choice. Because selling is a profession and like all the professions, we should do it in a way that we’re proud of.
not view selling as manipulation, not do selling as something we do to people, but do it as something we do with people.
So, if you are in a corner where you’re going to have to exert social or other pressure to create the tension to get someone to buy something from you that you actually don’t think they should buy, that you’re doing it for the commission, then you’re not a professional. And I think you should walk away from that and you should walk away for that product or at the very least, walk away from the customer. That the power of being able to say to a customer, “You’re right. It’s not for you. Here’s a phone number of someone who sells something other than what I sell. Good luck with them because it will be better for you.” That’s what a professional salesperson does."
Trechos retirados de "The World’s Greatest Marketing Mind with Seth Godin"

"The best way to beat a problem is to make it work for you"

A propósito de, "De onde vêm as grandes estratégias (parte II)", chamaram-me a atenção para este site delicioso, "44 Inspirational MacGyver Quotes For Knowledge And Resourcefulness":
"1. "I say we trust our instincts, go with our gut. You can't program that. That's our edge." - MacGyver [Moi ici: Lembro-me do episódio onde isto era dito, a luta contra a Sandy]
2. "The great thing about a map: it gets you in and out of places in a lot different ways."[Moi ici: Um mapa é uma desculpa, uma bengala, um artifício, para que nos levantemos e ponhamos a caminho. Como não recordar Weick]
4. "The best way to beat a problem is to make it work for you." [Moi ici: Faz-me lembrar o pressuposto por trás de "A Beautiful Constraint". Como será ver o mundo a partir de um ponto em que aquilo que para nós, hoje, é um problema passe a ser visto como uma oportunidade?]
8. "There always seems to be a way to fix things."[Moi ici: Há sempre um alternativa, nada é definitivo]
10. "That's the way the world gets better... one person at a time."[Moi ici: Sem revoluções, sem ismos, uma empresa de cada vez e à sua própria maneira]
18. "It's not so bad to be special... you just have to learn to feel good about it."[Moi ici: Ganhar a coragem para ser diferente, para seguir o caminho menos trilhado]
29. "If you don't have the right equipment for the job, you just have to make it yourself."[Moi ici: E nós portugueses somos bons nisto]
30. "My old high school physics and chemistry classes come in real handy sometimes. Not to mention the fact that when you're in a squeeze, necessity always seems to come through as the true mother of invention." [Moi ici: Stressors são informação a dizer-nos que temos de mudar de vida]
38. "Only a fool is sure of anything, a wise man keeps on guessing." [Moi ici: A humildade de encarar as estratégias como hipóteses, fazer pequenas experiências]"

Promover a assimetria

"If possession of a positive added value is the key to value appropriation, we must next determine how a player comes to have a positive added value. In particular, how can a firm come to have a positive added value? The answer is that the firm must enjoy a favorable asymmetry between itself and other firms. We identify four routes that lead to the creation of such asymmetries, terming each a ”value-based’ strategy for the firm.
it is evident that for a firm to have a positive added value it must be “different” from its competitors. That is, it must enjoy a favorable asymmetry between itself and other firms.
Favorable asymmetries can also arise on the supplier side. Specifically, suppliers may have a lower opportunity cost of providing resources to one firm than of providing them to other firms. Notice that each of these asymmetries can come about in either of two ways. An asymmetry in willingness-to-pay may arise because the firm finds a way to raise the willingness-to-pay of buyers for its product. Or it may arise because buyers end up with a lower willingness-to-pay for other firms’ products. A favorable asymmetry results in either case. Similarly, an asymmetry in opportunity cost may arise because the firm finds a way to lower the opportunity cost of suppliers of providing resources to it. Or it may arise because suppliers end up with a higher opportunity cost of providing resources to other firms. Again, a favorable asymmetry results in either case.
We call each of these routes to enjoying a favorable asymmetry a ”value-based’’ strategy for the firm.
In the top left box is the strategy of raising the willingness-to- pay of buyers for the firm’s product. This is the classic differentiation strategy. It involves the firm’s finding ways to meet the needs of buyers better than do other firms. This strategy is well known and well understood, and so we do not dwell on it here.
In the bottom left box is the strategy of lowering the opportunity cost to suppliers of providing resources to the firm. One way the firm can do this is by reducing a supplier’s costs of doing business with it. This type of value-based strategy, the existence of which follows logically from our analytical approach, thus has close connections with the sorts of ideas that have been emphasized recently in writings on supplier relations. It is also closely related to the consulting prescription, currently in vogue, that firms should establish ”value-managed partnerships” with their suppliers.
Other ways in which the firm can lower suppliers’ opportunity costs are found in the area of human resource management. An example is offering employees nonsalary benefits which other firms cannot readily match.
In the top right box is the strategy of lowering the willingness- to-pay of buyers for other firms’ products. In its most literal form, this strategy might include negative advertising (“bad-mouthing” competitors). A more subtle variant involves the creation of switching costs for buyers. These are present if existing buyers of a firm find buying from a competitor in the future less attractive than buying from the same firm again-say, because of retraining costs associated with switching to use of a competitor’s product. This says exactly that buyers have a lower willingness-to-pay for the products of competi- tors than for those of the original firm.
Finally, in the bottom right box is the strategy of raising the opportunity cost to suppliers of providing resources to other firms. This largely mirrors the previous strategy. Influencing suppliers’ perceptions of other firms fits in here, as does the creation of switching costs for suppliers."

Trechos retirados de "Value-Based Business Strategy" de Adam Brandenburger e Harborwne Stuart

sexta-feira, dezembro 29, 2017

“That’s how we’ve always done it.”

"The other “commandment” is to become very suspicious anytime you ask, “Why do we do this like that?” and you receive the answer, “That’s how we’ve always done it.” If no one in the organization can explain why a certain practice is the best, or why the product has to offer certain features, that may reveal a bad habit. I suggest several activities the leaders of organizations can do to get to the bottom of this puzzle. First, write down key business processes and ask yourself if you understand why the organization is doing it this way. Then ask others in the company if they understand why. Finally, ask newcomers to the company — after they have been with the organization two or three months — what processes they have seen in the organization they do not understand.
You propose that an organization implement “change for change’s sake.” Why?
There is value in the process of change itself. Many organizations are attached to certain processes and do not realize that when these processes become less relevant or do not work as well, it is time to change. I suggest not waiting for trouble; be proactive about making changes.
When processes become routinized, silos develop across firms, communication and cooperation fade away, and certain departments begin to command a disproportionate amount of resources. If the company waits for these things to emerge, it is often too late and too difficult to change. Instead, the company should adopt minor but proactive changes on a consistent basis."
Trechos retirados de "How — and Why — You Need to Break Bad Business Habits"

Custos Unitários do Trabalho, salários e produtividade

Lembram-se do tempo da troika e de quanto esquerda e direita nos bombardearam com grandes tiradas sobre a necessidade de reduzir os Custos Unitários do Trabalho (CUT)?

Lembram-se de como aqui sempre estivemos contra essa treta porque os CUT são um rácio e, por isso, os CUT podem baixar, apesar dos salários subirem, se o que se produz tiver maior valor unitário?

Os clássicos, como Teixeira dos Santos ou os direitolas como Ferraz da Costa, assumem o jogo do gato e do rato, e relacionam o aumento dos salários com o aumento da produtividade em termos de produção de unidades por unidade de tempo, assumindo que o preço unitário não varia, assumindo que o que se produz mantém-se constante ao longo do tempo.

Aqui, sempre chamámos a atenção para o aumento da produtividade através da alteração do que se produz, a velha lição de Marn e Rosiello, porque tem um impacte muito superior ao que se consegue à custa do aumento da eficiência.

Regresso a isto ao encontrar estes gráficos:

Chamo a especial atenção para a evolução dos CUT (unit labour costs) da Irlanda. Estão a imaginar a quantidade de analistas a rasgar as vestes e a chorar com dó dos pobres irlandeses. Segundo eles, porque os CUT baixaram é porque os salários reais baixaram... os irlandeses devem estar a pagar para trabalhar.

Reparem agora neste outro gráfico sobre a evolução dos salários reais:

Já agora, olhem para a evolução da produtividade irlandesa:
Acham que esta evolução aconteceu porque os irlandeses começaram a correr mais depressa e a ser menos preguiçosos, ou porque se alterou o preço unitário do que produzem?

E como se aumenta o preço unitário do que se produz quando não se goza da prerrogativa de ter armas e de se poder obrigar os "utentes" a comprarem o que se produz?

Subindo na escala de valor.

Trechos retirados de "Wages and Nominal and Real Unit Labour Cost Differentials in EMU"

De onde vêm as grandes estratégias (parte II)

Parte I.
"The traditional toolkit of strategy is analytical; business schools teach strategists to ground their thinking on data. Management consultants educated in this way begin strategy projects with an “as-is” analysis, digging deep into the world to better understand it. This might consist of an industry analysis to understand market dynamics, a value chain and profit pool analysis to see where value is being created and captured, and competitive analysis to better understand the direct and indirect competition in a given market. Management consultants review customer data, seeking to understand spending patterns, needs, wants and behaviors, and use those insights to segment the market into more attractive and less attractive customer groups.
Having done this analysis, and gained an understanding of the world as it is today, management consultants then look for opportunities for their clients to compete.
Designers do not see the world as a fixed canvas. They are an optimistic bunch, who see the world as a range of possibilities that can be crafted and bent to our will. Design consultants begin a project by looking for inspiration that will drive their thinking and ideation about the world as it should be. Inspiration can come from within an industry or outside of it. Sometimes a societal trend will trigger an idea. Or it could be driven by ethnographic research observing potential customers. At this stage in the process, design consultants gleefully dance over the “as-is” state, as they generate lots of ideas of the “should-be” state. Only when this creative, generative phase is completed do we bring out the analytical tools to evaluate the ideas. Is there a market and business model that will support this idea? Does the client have the right assets and capabilities to deliver this value proposition? Is the technology required to implement this idea mature enough? How will this idea change an industry dynamics or competitive set? Traditional strategy tools are used to evaluate the ideas to get a sense of what we need to do in order to make them real.
As a strategist in a design consultancy, I am clearly a convert to strategy as a creative act.
it is true that analytical approaches work extremely well for cost optimization problems. But to enhance revenue and to grow—either through new offerings or new forms of customer experience—creative approaches work better. If you want to do something that is truly new, to create value in a way that has never been done before, to lead rather than follow, and to reframe customer expectations, you need the tools of design. Some management consultants understand this, and are experimenting with design."

Acredito, sobretudo ao trabalhar com PME, numa abordagem criativa com restrições, com constrangimentos. A metáfora que me vem à cabeça é a de MacGyver. O que faz MacGyver metido em mais uma embrulhada? Não sonha com o que não tem, olha para o que tem à mão e inventa uma hipótese de saída com isso. Depois, é implementa-la, mas sempre atento ao feedback da procura para iterar se for caso disso.

Olhar para o que se tem à mão de forma criativa, é olhar para o seu ADN e procurar o tal "twist" necessário para ver o que os outros ainda não viram.

Trechos retirados de "Strategy as a Creative Act II: The Limits to Management Consulting"

quinta-feira, dezembro 28, 2017

Para reflexão

"Qual é a estratégia da Medis? [Moi ici: Reparem na pergunta]
A estratégia da companhia é continuar a crescer, de forma sustentada, salvaguardando sempre a rentabilidade da mesma. [Moi ici: Acham que crescimento e rentabilidade é estratégia? Não serão consequências desejadas de uma estratégia bem sucedida?]
Queremos ser uma companhia de seguros efetivamente multicanal.
Num segundo vetor, queremos trabalhar na valorização da proposta de valor,"[Moi ici: Recordar o teste do ácido sobre se o que se diz ser uma estratégia é mesmo uma estratégia, "and it's not stupid"]
 Trechos retirados de "CEO da Médis: “Receio que o sector cometa o erro de estar mais preocupando com a quota de mercado e menos com a rentabilidade”"

Acerca dos indicadores

"Here are some rules of thumb for what makes a good metric—a number that will drive the changes you’re looking for.
A good metric is comparative. Being able to compare a metric to other time periods, groups of users, or competitors helps you understand which way things are moving. “Increased conversion from last week” is more meaningful than “2% conversion.”
A good metric is understandable. If people can’t remember it and discuss it, it’s much harder to turn a change in the data into a change in the culture.
A good metric is a ratio or a rate. Accountants and financial analysts have several ratios they look at to understand, at a glance, the fundamental health of a company.[5] You need some, too.
A good metric changes the way you behave. This is by far the most important criterion for a metric: what will you do differently based on changes in the metric?"

Trechos retirados de "What Makes a Good Metric?"

De onde vêm as grandes estratégias

A doença que identifiquei e associei ao que designo por tríade e as suas manobras lanchesterianas:
"the reality of strategy courses can be rather mechanical, involving the filling in of frameworks and boxes, the itemizing of various factors said to bring about success or failure, and other somewhat formulaic activities. Case studies of interesting organizations enliven and enrich the learning experience. But is something missing? Is it, in fact, an unfortunate reality that courses on business strategy largely fail to address what is probably the most exciting question: “Where do great strategies really come from?
Aqui no blogue apreciamos a importância da idiossincrasia na formulação de uma estratégia:
"The missing ingredient in what we have talked about so far is this: strategy making is a creative act. That is the hypothesis of this essay. People sense this at an intuitive level. When we first start hearing about and reading stories and cases about business successes (or failures), it is the clever novelty of various people’s thinking and actions in the business world that makes for the most exciting and enticing examples. It is this “aha” feature of the successful move or series of moves that draws many (all?) of us to the area of business strategy.
successful strategy and performance come from looking beyond what is cognitively close to the status quo (therefore, easier to think about) to what is further out (therefore, harder to think about). Superior cognition leads to superior strategy making. Interestingly, Schumpeter is quoted on this point: “Passively ‘drawing consequences’ is not the only possible economic behaviour. You can also try and change the given circumstances. If you do that, you do something not yet contained in our representation of Reality”
Changing the circumstances, or changing the game, or some other similar phrase—these are the cognitively more challenging, but also more rewarding, moves.
But to say that strategy making is a creative act is to take an additional step. This is because creativity is usually thought of as a “whole-brain” activity. The headline version of this point is to say that creativity is a right- brain activity, as distinct from logic and analysis, which are left-brain activities.
Returning to the role of constraints and limitations, this is, just like the role of combination, much discussed in the creativity world. The arts are full of examples of famous creators who turned obstacles or setbacks not into limits on their lives but into moments that led to great accomplishment. Creators may deliberately choose to impose constraints on themselves—as when someone consciously adopts the rules of a particular form of poetry or music.
It is not surprising to find that constraints can stimu- late clever thought and action in the business world, too.
business strategy is not an exact subject, capable of being reduced to one correct viewpoint. There are multiple viewpoints and many of them very likely offer some degree of insight. If strategy as creativity has some currency in the world of practice today, this is some support for making the creativity of strategy making a theme in thinking about and teaching business strategy.
So, a course on business strategy ends. It has done a good job addressing the question of where great strategies really come from. It has not provided a definitive answer, because a definitive answer would be suspect. But, perhaps, a good answer is that great strategies come, in good part, from great creativity."
Como não recordar:
"There's always a choice, say the Sisters, but there's always a twist..."

Excelente texto de "Where Do Great Strategies Really Come From?" de Adam Brandenburger, publicado em 2017 por Strategy Science 2(4):220-225

quarta-feira, dezembro 27, 2017

Mais um "Mongo é isto"

Depois do recente "Mongo é isto" mais uma história, mais um exemplo da sedução do artesanato, do que é feito por um humano de forma pouco eficiente, "How to Make a Surfboard":
"This last part is important to LaVecchia, not just because of the environmental implications, but because the wood itself—mostly northern white cedar—is milled by a single shop in Maine. Each board is a study in hyper-localism. “The material is grown here, milled here, built, shaped, sanded, and polished by hand, right here,”"

"em vez de enveredar pela race-to-the-bottom"

Isto, "O futuro do jornalismo", é, sem tirar nem pôr, o mesmo tema de "Make better tacos".

Na dúvida, em vez de enveredar pela race-to-the-bottom, procurar uma forma de fazer diferente ou melhor. Como não recordar as três regras de Raynor.

Fugir da eficiência (parte II)

Parte I.
"focal behavioral failures [Moi ici: Coisas que resultam para lá da eficiência], which are argued to revolve around the dimensions of rationality (the ability to identify opportunities), plasticity (the ability to act on opportunities), and shaping ability (the ability to legitimize opportunities and therefore “shape” or “construct” the opportunity space). It is argued that behavioral failures typically become more pronounced as firms pursue opportunities that are more cognitively distant. [Moi ici: Por vezes os gestores estão tão prisioneiros do que conhecem que não conseguem agir como os ignorantes dispostos a experimentar algo novo] To pursue these opportunities, strategic leaders must change their worldview, or they will not spot them. They must also persuade internal and external stakeholders to change their worldview, or these opportunities will be resisted and not acted on and legitimized. Performing these tasks intelligently is hard. Indeed, evolutionary and ecological perspectives show that pursuing cognitively distant courses of action leads, on average, to unusually grave survival struggles. ... Superior opportunities tend to be cognitively distant, and critical sources of superior performance lie in strategic leaders’ superior ability to overcome the behavioral bounds that make it hard for the average firm to pursue them.
Distant foresight requires leaders to acquire appropriate cognitive representations that draw cognitively distant opportunities nearer. To persuade internal and external audiences to espouse a new, cognitively distant course of action, leaders must induce them to adopt a new representation of the firm and its position in the competitive space. [Moi ici: Uma das utilidades do mapa da estratégia, traduzir numa figura um conjunto de interrelações] The construct of cognitive representation and what it takes to manage it are thus central to the concept of strategic agency proposed here. Meeting the challenges of acquiring appropriate representations to foresee distant realities and persuading relevant audiences to endorse novel representations involve processes that have a common root in their associative nature.
Behavioral failures are impediments to firms’ abilities to compete for opportunities. Such failures are behavioral insofar as these impediments are mental in origin. Behavioral failures can be viewed in terms of limits to strategic leaders’ abilities to manage and overcome such mental impediments."
Trechos que combinam muito bem com: "There's always a choice, say the Sisters, but there's always a twist..."

Trechos retirados de “Toward a Behavioral Theory of Strategy.” Organization Science, 23 (January/February 2012): 267-285 de Giovanni Gavotte.

terça-feira, dezembro 26, 2017

Fugir da eficiência

Isto é poesia celestial para quem há mais de uma década enfrenta a tríade enterrada no século XX e devota do bezerro de ouro da eficiência e custos:
"The premise of the theory presented below is that to identify the behavioral drivers of superior performance systematically, it is useful to reason against the benchmark of market efficiency. When markets are efficient, opportunities for superior performance (also called superior courses of action or strategic opportunities) do not exist, or, if they do, they are short-lived because they are competed away by many rival firms. Therefore, establishing what causes violations of market efficiency shows what causes opportunities to exist. Following this logic, the behavioral roots of superior opportunities can be understood in terms of behavioral factors that hinder efficiency. The theory proposed in this paper seeks to isolate such factors by identifying systematic behavioral bounds or impediments to competition. These bounds are behavioral in that they reflect limitations in strategic leaders’ ability to manage mental processes. They will be called behavioral failures, short for behavioral market failures. Such failures ensure that opportunities whose pursuit requires leaders to manage very hard-to-manage mental processes are not competed away, even if competition is intense. Hence, superior performance rests in part on a strategic leader’s superior ability to overcome focal behavioral failures. Thus, managing such mental processes is central to strategic leaders’ role."

Trecho retirado de “Toward a Behavioral Theory of Strategy.” Organization Science, 23 (January/February 2012): 267-285 de Giovanni Gavotte.

Alicerces para a promoção da concorrência imperfeita e dos monopólios informais.

O futuro do jornalismo

Há anos que escrevo aqui sobre a reacção dos media à internet. Perante a "invasão chinesa" da internet, que seduziu os clientes overserved, os media tiveram a resposta instintiva de irem atrás dos clientes que perderam, pensando que era uma questão de preço (daí terem sido inundados de estagiários e recibos verdes). Ao fazerem-no perderam aqueles que poderiam ter continuado como clientes, os underserved, aqueles que estariam dispostos a pagar mais, (sim, o burro era eu), por algo que não implicasse vergonhas deste tipo:
Um sintoma de que há mercado para servir clientes underserved?

Acerca do short-termism (parte II)

Há dias ouvimos e lemos que os CTT vão despedir cerca de 800 trabalhadores. A desculpa é que já ninguém envia cartas a ninguém.

No entanto, "Comércio online explode e pressiona empresas de logística". E os CTT não são uma empresa de logística?

No entanto, "Atrasos nas compras online geram onda de queixas no Natal":
"Os CTT são a empresa que mereceu, de forma destacada, o maior volume de reclamações - deu origem a quase um milhar de reclamações contabilizadas apenas a partir de Outubro. Seguem-se-lhe a GLS (257 queixas), a Chronopost (173), a Seur (152), a MRW (88) e a DHL (37)."
Ao olhar para o nome que nos últimos dias tem representado a gestão dos CTT na comunicação social não posso deixar de reler "Acerca do short-termism". Antes dele:
Reconheço que os CTT terão mais reclamações porque movimentam mais encomendas mas funcionam mesmo mal, tive oportunidade de o confirmar durante "esse pico de encomendas de Setembro".

domingo, dezembro 24, 2017

Feliz Natal!

Há dias vi o filme de Mel Gibson sobre a crucificação de Jesus. Quando o filme surgiu recordo que houve muita indignação por causa da violência. Confesso que o que mais me chocou foram os diálogos:

  • absurda uma conversa em que um rabi judeu fala em aramaico a um governador romano que entende aramaico e lhe responde em latim e vice versa;
  • o uso de trechos inteiros dos Evangelhos como falas nos diálogos.
Os Evangelhos não são História. Lembro-me de ouvir um exegeta bíblico dizer que, por exemplo, o Evangelho de São João, foi escrito pelas comunidades gregas e chamava a atenção para certas passagens que foram escritas para serem ditas por um coro. Mais de dois mil anos depois sabemos pouco sobre o verdadeiro Jesus histórico. Resta-me a fé de que ele era Deus feito homem, tudo o resto é secundário.

Recordo que o mesmo exegeta sublinhava: as multidões formavam-se para o ouvir não para assistir aos seus milagres.

sábado, dezembro 23, 2017

Acerca da análise SWOT


Peças para a construção de Mongo

Algo que já antevimos aqui há anos e anos, "‘Mini-grid’ household energy sharing begins to take off":
"Network of 20,000 German homes selling to each other shows new distribution model
In Germany, about 20,000 households are already part of an initiative, launched by energy storage company Sonnen, which connects homes that independently produce energy. Sonnen’s virtual network allows them to buy and sell excess energy to each other at a reduced cost.
Sonnen is Europe’s largest maker of rechargeable energy storage packs. When the company launched in 2010, its battery packs sold for €25,000. Today, they cost €5,000."
O que irá acontecer aos 17 mil milhões de dívida da EDP?

Para facilitar esta democratização da produção, "Are The Benefits Of Blockchain Out Of Reach For Small And Mid-Size Businesses?" e "How Blockchain Will Change Organizations"

Leio este trecho:
"10-15 percent of all transactions will take place on blockchain by 2025"
E começo a imaginar partidos radicais (financiados, por trás do biombo, por accionistas que quererão recuperar o investimento) a exigir a nacionalização dos bancos.

"It’s all about the situation they’re in"

"Every company is interested in why people buy their products, but rewind time a bit further and you’ll find even more fundamental insights.
Before someone goes buying, there’s a reason they go shopping.
There are usually a few events that lead to the desire — or demand — to shop. Something happens that trips the initial thought. There’s a spark.
#1 “We can’t keep working like this.”
#2 “We can’t mess up like that again.”
#3 “This project isn’t getting off the ground.”
#4 “How am I going to pull this off?”
what’s most interesting is feeling the moments, the situations people find themselves in before they’re our customers. It’s all situational. It’s not about this industry or that one. It’s not about demographics, either. It’s not even about the competitive set, yet. It’s all about the situation they’re in, the reality they’re trying to wrangle, and the progress they’re trying to make."

Trechos retirados de "The Why before the Why"

sexta-feira, dezembro 22, 2017

Tenho algum receio...

O @nticomuna no Twitter chamou-me a atenção para este desenvolvimento:
O Grupo Aquinos a apostar no mercado do luxo.

Algo que já se poderia pressentir em “Não nos falta mercado, falta é capacidade de produção”:
"depois da aposta na compra do grupo Francês Cauval ter sido gorada, depois das auditorias efetuadas terem revelado “problemas sérios”. “Seria uma aquisição muito importante, para podermos entrar no segmento de mercado de luxo, mas já estamos a trabalhar num plano B”,"
Espero sinceramente que tenham sucesso nesta aposta no luxo. No entanto, tenho algum receio... recordo Skinner e plant-within-the-plant... e Terry Hill.
"conseguir penetrar no mundo Ikea. O seu principal cliente foi “namorado durante muito mais tempo” do que a própria esposa. Foram precisamente cinco anos para obter a primeira encomenda de 750 sofás, isto depois de “na primeira abordagem não me terem ligado nenhuma”. Mas o interesse superior em conquistar este cliente estava no topo das suas prioridades, pois “paga muito bem, tem volume e uma visão que se encaixa muito na nossa, ajudando-nos muito em melhorar a máquina da eficiência”.
Atualmente, a Ikea e Conforama absorvem 60‰ das vendas de um grupo que sempre viu os mercados externos com grande potencial para poder crescer." 
O modelo de negócio para servir a Ikea e a Conforama não tem nada a ver com o modelo de negócio para servir o mundo do luxo... recordar os vários mundos.

I see BS vendors everywhere

Hoje no Twitter, Nassim Taleb recorda uma grande verdade:

Claro que quem está de fora não percebe o que são isto de "scars"

Há dias, sublinhei este título "“For an Entrepreneur, Every Day Is a Crisis”"

Agora reparem no discurso de um BS vendor [o deputado do BE, José Soeiro] neste texto "Recibos verdes: quem paga mais e menos? Veja as simulações":
"Para simplificar, num primeiro passo tomemos o exemplo de um rendimento constante de prestação de serviços de um trabalhador"
Rendimento constante?! Piada feita!!!

E porque não somos plankton (parte VIII)

Leiam o título "Nestle to Sell U.S. Chocolate Business as Market Melts". Oiçam o video com os comentários e justificações. Leiam:
"The U.S. chocolate market is sputtering, and in August, Lindt & Spruengli AG blamed North America when it forecast the weakest revenue growth in at least eight years."
Depois, olhem para a evolução do mercado do chocolate nos Estados Unidos:

E para "Chocolate Industry Analysis 2017 - Cost & Trends":
"Growth of the chocolate industry over the last decade has been driven in large part by an increasing awareness of the health benefits of certain types of chocolate and growing popularity in Asian Pacific countries.
Chocolate is broadly classified by the amount of cocoa it contains. Milk chocolate accounts for more than 50% of all chocolate consumption but may contain as little as 10% cocoa. Hershey's milk chocolate has approximately 11% cocoa, with a whole lot of milk and sugar added in. Chocolate is considered “dark” if it has more than 60% cocoa.
Instead of being something to avoid or consider a special treat, consumers are finding out that many diets and even doctors are recommending regular consumption of dark chocolate.
Premium and dark chocolate are the strongest segments of the market in the United States in terms of growth, though not market share. Unique products and consumption experiences are keeping consumers coming back for more.
There are an abundance of chocolate franchise opportunities for the interested entrepreneur! Much of the variety comes from niche products such as chocolate drink fountains, premium selections or unique recipes.
Knowing your local market and providing a product or experience that can not be found is key to finding the right business."
Se ouviram os comentários do vídeo talvez tenham recordado que Mongo is gigantes-unfriendly (como a P&G et al).

A Nestlé gosta de vender aquele chocolate com 10% de cacau (na minha primeira entrevista de emprego, o director de produção de uma fábrica de chocolate dizia-me que o chocolate era um excelente veículo para o que interessava, vender açúcar. Foi na segunda-feira a seguir à primeira maioria absoluta de Cavaco) mas em Mongo a tendência é outra.

Parte VII.

quinta-feira, dezembro 21, 2017

Um segredo!

Um segredo!

A partir de hoje os dias voltam a crescer.

Mongo é isto

Há dias vi este filme no Twitter:

Hoje, li "How to Make a Shoe", uma ode a esse meio de produção desconhecido dos consumidores, a forma.

De um lado a produção digital, do outro o artesanato. Por acaso, ambas destinadas ao calçado feito à medida:
"Wittmer makes about four pairs of shoes per month at her three-person workshop, called Saskia, starting at about 3,000 euros ($3,540) per pair, including 500 euros for the last, which always stays at the cobbler."
Sobre as formas:
"The most challenging step in making a bespoke shoe isn’t selecting the leather, perfecting the stitching, or ensuring that the heel is weatherproof. The toughest part, cobbler Vivian Saskia Wittmer says, involves something that you won’t wear, ever.
It’s creating what’s known as the “last,” the foot-shaped block that gives the shoe its shape."

Quantificar valor (parte II)

Parte I.

A empresa da parte I não foi convencida. Não a consegui convencer a fazer a tal quantificação das benesses.

Entretanto, esta semana visitei-a e o dono estava possesso. Empresa grande, cliente, pediu apoio à empresa na concepção de um novo produto e, depois, foi encomendar o serviço a outra empresa, um concorrente. O senhor não conseguia entender que o cliente o tivesse trocado por meia dúzia de euros...

Tentei explicar que quem pede ajuda é diferente de quem toma a decisão final e voltei à carga com a lista das benesses.

É claro que ninguém gosta de fazer figura de tótó e começou logo a listar o que iria fazer. Adivinham?

Tit for tat!

Cuidado com o preço-baixo

"Don’t price too low  The second wrong mistake dooms many businesses in the cradle. Professional pricers believe there are three and only three overarching strategies: skim, neutral and penetration.
Skimming does just want the name implies; it skims the cream off the top. Apple has created near $1 trillion in market capital by using mostly skim pricing. Neutral is also fairly self-explanatory – pricing in the middle of the pack, neither too high, nor too low. Penetration pricing refers to attempting to penetrate a current market by undercutting incumbents with a lower price. The problem is once your organization gets tagged as the low-price challenger, it is especially difficult to overcome that moniker.
To overcome these many companies have used what used to be called a loss-leader. Today, we call it Freemium. To gain a foothold, products are introduced with a low or even free price with the ability to us."
Como não recordar aquela frase: não há nenhuma lei que impeça a existência de concorrentes estúpidos. Ou seja, não é ilegal ser estúpido.

 Trechos retirados de "Top three pricing mistakes to avoid"

quarta-feira, dezembro 20, 2017

Sem necessidade de controlar

Há tempos ao preparar uma auditoria a uma empresa deparei-me com esta frase para descrever um dos riscos determinados:
"Modelo de negócio que não permite o controlo do mesmo"
Torci o nariz.

Cada vez mais o truque não passa pelo controlo, mas pela colaboração, mas pela curadoria. Por exemplo:
"Contextual awareness, peripheral vision, design thinking and a multi-disciplinary approach – these are all terms that are trending in modern office-speak. And deservedly so. A project-based [Moi ici: Interessante] and titles-free organization — where yesterday’s team member is today’s team lead — can deliver the flexibility and agility that businesses yearn for.
Context Curator” is the term I’d like to introduce to the business dictionary. To lead a project is not to assign tasks and monitor performance, but to empower, to define the broader context, and to organically link the work of one team with the rest of the business. Following the example of Netflix and striving for higher talent density is only half the battle. Curating the context in which high performers can excel – rather than attempting to manage them – is the key to unleashing their full potential."

Figura e trecho retirado de "Do we no longer need managers?"

"looped by cir­cum­stances"

"The hard­est deci­sion lead­ers have to make, and fre­quently in busi­ness the com­mon mis­take — is pick­ing your bat­tles. And not polit­i­cally, but tac­ti­cally. Most man­agers and exec­u­tives get so caught up in tac­ti­cal and oper­a­tional prob­lem solv­ing and fire fight­ing that they get looped by cir­cum­stances and lose all if any strate­gic ori­en­ta­tion to their work."
E quando a testosterona entra em campo?

Trecho retirado de "Strat­egy bogged down by reality?"

"Price is not based on cost"

"I believe it is important to share that price is the number one driver of profitability in almost any business. AT Kearney and McKinsey have both done studies which demonstrate that a one percent increase in price across the board yields a seven to 11 percent increase to profit. This compares to a one to three percent increase to profit from a one percent reduction in fixed cost, a three to four percent increase due to an additional revenue, and a five to seven percent increase due to a reduction of fixed cost (i.e., efficiency gains) usually considered the Holy Grail of business acumen.[Moi ici: Como não recuar a 2008]
If I could send executives to the Bart Simpson chalkboard of life, I would have to write, “Price is not based on cost,” over and over again. Notice, this is not to say that costs are not factor in pricing, they can be, but far too many brilliant people believe that prices are determined by a formula that begins and ends with cost.
Prices are determined by understanding the perceived value of the prospective customer. This value is subjective and can vary from prospect to prospect over time.
The reality is that price, rather than being derived from costs, should justify the future expenditure of cost. The logic chains like this: Value → Price →Cost, not Cost → Price→ Value"
Trechos retirados de "Top three pricing mistakes to avoid"

terça-feira, dezembro 19, 2017

Acerca do "short-termism"

"Instead of hiring outside CEOs, hire insiders—or at least CEOs with domain expertise.
One trend that has contributed to short-termism and lower innovativeness is the increased prevalence of outside CEOs. From 1970 to 2004, the percentage of CEOs hired from outside the firm increased from 12% to 39%.
While outside CEOs are valued because they bring new perspective, my colleague, Trey Cummings, and I believe they impose a hidden cost to innovation at firms whose growth derives from R&D (roughly 49% of firms).
firms shifted from an orientation of “R&D as a driver of growth” to “R&D as an expense.” What was reported to happen as a consequence of this shift was a steady decline in firms’ R&D intensity (R&D/Sales) and a corresponding decline in firms’ R&D capability. In other words, the new leader’s disinvestment cut meat as well as fat.
Why do these shifts occur? We believe, and now have correlative evidence, that it’s because outside CEOs are less likely to possess the technological domain expertise necessary to drive growth from R&D. When CEOs lack this expertise, they are more likely to manage R&D “by the numbers,” despite the fact that those numbers are more elusive than those for capital and advertising. Indeed, we found that companies with outside CEOs have lower innovativeness as measured by RQ, and that those effects become more pronounced the more R&D intensive the company is and the more technologically different it is from the CEO’s prior company.
Note the solution is not to avoid outside CEOs. There are many reasons companies benefit from hiring an outsider, such as to effect change. Moreover, not all outside CEOs lack domain expertise (e.g., CEOs from rival firms); conversely not all inside CEOs have it (CEOs promoted from finance). Rather, the solution is to ensure that companies whose growth derives from R&D hire CEOs with technological domain expertise."
Trechos retirados de "The Real Reasons Companies Are So Focused on the Short Term"

Não é fácil escapar das armadilhas

"Managers often unknowingly adopt bad practices when they try to benchmark their organizations against the other companies in their industries.
For instance, some years ago, whenever GE did something new, many firms were inclined to immediately imitate it. Like a lot of people, the managers at these organizations assumed that GE's leaders knew it all: "Surely, when they do it, it must be a good thing, because they're such a successful firm."
Indeed, research has confirmed that organizations tend to imitate the actions of other companies that stand out as successful, even when it is clear that the newly developed practice is not the cause of the company's success.
The press does it, too. Journalists habitually write about top-performing companies and interview their CEOs, rather than the average Joes. We, admittedly, do it in business schools: we teach cases about the best, blue-chip companies, ignoring the less-sexy average types."[Moi ici: A propósito disto recordar "Cuidado com o título"]
Agora pensem nos artigos da revista Exame, pensem nas posições que a CIP defende, pensem nas decisões das associações de sector chefiadas pelos líderes das empresas grandes.

Freek Vermeulen dá como título à secção de onde retirei estes trechos "Benchmarking is BS"... pois é.

Trechos retirados de "Breaking Bad Habits" de Freek Vermeulen

Quanto tempo? (parte II)

Parte I.

Nem de propósito, entretanto, encontrei "Can blockchain ensure Unilever’s tea farmers produce a fairer brew?":
"Imagine being able to trace the exact origins of your cup of tea: where and how it was made, whether organic soil was used and if the workers were treated fairly.[Moi ici: Perfeito para Mongo, para a democratização da produção e para a autenticidade]"

segunda-feira, dezembro 18, 2017

In culpa non est digital

"The US retail world is particularly challenged, given the vast overbuilding of stores and shopping malls in recent decades.
more shopping is done online, recently crossing the 10 per cent mark, and how department stores have suffered a particularly steep decline in their share of overall US commerce.
It is important to note that retail as an industry is not going away, just being reshaped. Many traditional players are adapting to the new digital realities, and are beginning to reap the benefits from investments in their online operations."
A culpa não é dos vendedores digitais.

A culpa desta evolução é de quem está mais preocupado com o escoamento do que com o job-to-be-done.

Gráficos e trechos retirados de "Charting the US retail revolution"

Quanto tempo?

"what most people don’t understand yet is that blockchain technology is about so much more than digital coins. At its essence, a blockchain is a new type of digital ledger which records information in a publicly-verified, traceable way across a decentralized network of devices. What this means is information for, say, an app isn’t just stored on a privately-owned server somewhere—it’s stored across multiple devices that communicate with each other to verify user activity, rather than referencing one central authority"
Há uma empresa com que estou a trabalhar que tem na sala de reuniões uma foto excelente do chão de fábrica de uma fábrica de sapatos anterior à electricidade onde a existência de um veio central ditava a localização das máquinas, como na foto:

O aparecimento da electricidade demoraria 30 a 40 anos a alterar o layout das fábricas.

Quanto tempo demorará o blockchain a alterar os modelos de negócio de Mongo, sobretudo a promover a democratização da produção?

Trecho retirado de "Why Designers Need to Start Thinking About Blockchain"

Sair da zona de conforto

Ou expandir a zona de conforto:
"On Feb. 5, 2014, London Underground workers went on a 48-hour strike, forcing the closings of several tube stops. The affected commuters had to find alternate routes.
When the strike ended, most people reverted to their old patterns. But roughly one in 20 stuck with the new route, shaving 6.7 minutes from what had been an average 32-minute commute.
The closings imposed by the strike forced experimentation with alternate routes, yielding valuable results. And if the strike had been longer, even more improvements would probably have been discovered.
Yet the fact that many people needed a strike to force them to experiment reveals the deep roots of a common reluctance to experiment."
Trecho retirado de "Why Trying New Things Is So Hard to Do"

domingo, dezembro 17, 2017

Mais exemplos do Portugal competitivo

"A indústria metalúrgica e metalomecânica de Portugal continua a dar cartas pelo mundo fora e este ano baterá recordes de exportação."(aqui)
""2017 vai ser o ano do recorde absoluto das vendas do sector têxtil e vestuário ao exterior. Vamos certamente chegar aos 5.200 milhões de euros de exportações","(aqui)


Via @icyView no Twitter:

Tenho de testar isto...

Cada vez penso mais no desafio e cada vez mais me apaixono por ele...

E que tal pegar num sistema de gestão da qualidade implementado e considerar 2018 como um projecto. Que mudanças teríamos de implementar para conduzir o sistema de gestão de forma a atingir os objetivos para o projecto?

O que me atrai é o potencial para criar algo de muito mais palpável e interessante para o dono de uma PME. Transformar um sistema de gestão da qualidade que ele não domina, que ele vê como algo à parte, numa ferramenta para atingir algo que ele valoriza, que ele deseja, que ele procura.

Quais são os objectivos para 2018? Que resultados quer, precisa de atingir em 2018? O que fará de 2018 um bom ano? Acha muito abstracto? Estamos no final de 2017: foi um bom ano porquê? Como poderia ter sido melhor? Foi uma mau ano? Como poderia ter sido menos mau? Não quer fazer batota e chegar a 2019 com a sensação de ter segurado no volante e ter mandado na caixa de velocidades?

Tenho de testar isto...

Recordar "Provocação para PME certificadas" (parte I e parte II)

sábado, dezembro 16, 2017

Perguntas difíceis

"Often, executives avoid questions they are not sure how to answer. Or leaders and employees may feel that it’s just not the right time to be asking them, perhaps rationalizing that the CEO has been at the helm of the company for a year or more and a strategy is already in place. They might feel that the time for asking these questions has already passed, and they don’t want to come across as launching criticism. Some executives may in fact value the lack of strategic clarity because it allows them to pursue their own priorities. As for CEOs themselves, they often do ask these questions when they start in their roles, but they often feel constrained by the boundaries handed to them — either an incoherent portfolio, or strong short-term pressure to meet targets that diverts their attention.
We have a collective responsibility to answer these fundamental questions — even if the answers aren’t easy or immediately practical. We have to create the room for this debate, and we owe our shareholders, customers, and employees clear answers about why we exist and what we do every day to fulfill that purpose. Building mechanisms to encourage debate is the best way to bring these fundamental questions out of the shadows and put them at center stage where they belong."
Ainda há dias li em "Your Need For Certainty Kills Innovation":
"Innovation is as much about attitude and perspective as it is about process. It’s an uncertain path that tests women and men’s mental and emotional fortitude; it’s not for everybody."

Trechos e imagem retirados de "8 Tough Questions to Ask About Your Company’s Strategy"

"Ask For Problems, Not Solutions"

Um texto muito bom, "Your Business Model Is Like A Yoghurt, And 7 Other Lessons From Alexander Osterwalder":
"1) Nobody Gives A Shit About Your Idea.
That’s exactly right, nobody cares. Why should they? People only care about the value you and your idea can provide to THEM.
Don’t just throw ideas around, because ideas are cheap. Focus on the value your idea can provide others.
2) Your Business Model Is Like A Yoghurt...
Your Business Model Has An Expiry DateAnd it is probably coming very soon. No matter how well it tastes in the moment, your business model will soon go sour. To avoid getting sick, you must throw it out and get a new one.
The yoghurt has a slight edge over your business model, though. With the yoghurt, at least you know WHEN it expires.
Your business model isn’t as forgiving. So keep smelling it daily, and be open to the idea of throwing it out when it has run its course.
3) Customers Have NO IDEA What They Want...
Ask For Problems, Not Solutions
Customers aren’t experts on solutions.
They are, however, experts on their own problems
So don’t ask people what they want. Don’t burden them with such cognitively demanding tasks. Instead, ask about their problems. Dig for issues, troubles, worries, challenges and, above all, PAINS. Then, and only then, get to work on curing them."

Fiquei fascinado

Quando vi esta figura:
Fiquei fascinado.

Parece linguagem extra-terrestre. O uso de uma ferramenta que me é completamente estranha para fazer o que no meu mundo é feito por um simples e banal mapa.

Figura retirada de "Inuit Cartography"

sexta-feira, dezembro 15, 2017

Um optimista sem ser cor de rosa (parte II)

Em Março de 2016 em, "Um optimista sem ser cor de rosa", publiquei esta imagem:
Agora imaginem que uma PME descobre que se deixar de pensar em trabalhar para o mercado português e para a sua dimensão, pode pensar em trabalhar para o estrangeiro. E ao trabalhar para o exterior percebe que há clientes do mundo 4 capazes de colocarem encomendas do tamanho do mundo 1.

É todo um mundo novo, literalmente.

Por causa do tamanho das encomendas chamam-lhe mundo 1, eu chamar-lhes-ia mundo 2 e aquela ferradura tem um significado preciso.

Outro exemplo do Portugal competitivo que tenho orgulho de visitar, tocar, ajudar a construir e, como neste caso, sentir-me parte dele.

Precário, flexível and proud of it

Nos media em Portugal, quando se fala de recibos verdes é sempre com uma conotação negativa. Também por isso, cada vez mais leis atrapalham e dificultam a vida a quem assume levar uma vida profissional que passa por esse meio de formalização do pagamento de serviços.

Julgo que este gráfico devia fazer com que muita gente reflectisse no que ele representa e, no impacte que dele decorre na forma como o trabalho é visto e concebido numa sociedade a caminho de Mongo e a afastar-se do século XX e do seu modelo de Magnitograd.

Vale a pena ler "4 predictions for the future of work":
"Our education system is broken. The way we educate future generations no longer prepares them adequately for the skills and jobs of today. The idea that you study math and science and art in your youth as separate disciplines, and then work to solve real world problems in today’s economy, does not add up. Preparing students for tomorrow’s jobs requires breaking down the silos within education."

Recordar "Em todo o lado a mesma doença"