Excelente artigo do The McKinsey Quarterly "Have you tested your strategy lately?"
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"Ultimately, strategy is a way of thinking, not a procedural exercise or a set of frameworks.
...
First, companies develop strategy in many different ways, often (Moi ici: Often? I believe is always) idiosyncratic to their organizations, people, and markets. Second, many strategies emerge over time rather than from a process of deliberate formulation. (Moi ici: Pena é que muitas vezes não se tome consciência dessa formula para a aperfeiçoar, para a melhor utilizar, para a forçar)
...
All companies operate in markets surrounded by customers, suppliers, competitors, substitutes, and potential entrants, all seeking to advance their own positions. That process, unimpeded, inexorably drives economic surplus—the gap between the return a company earns and its cost of capital—toward zero. (Moi ici: Isto aconteceria num universo fechado... Aprendi com Drucker que qualquer posição de liderança é transitória e com tendência a ser de curta duração. Aprendi com Schumpeter que os lucros só resultam da vantagem do inovador e desaparecem assim que aquilo que era inovador se torna rotina)
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For a company to beat the market by capturing and retaining an economic surplus, there must be an imperfection that stops or at least slows the working of the market. An imperfection controlled by a company is a competitive advantage. These are by definition scarce and fleeting because markets drive reversion to mean performance. The best companies are emulated by those in the middle of the pack, and the worst exit or undergo significant reform. As each player responds to and learns from the actions of others, best practice becomes commonplace rather than a market-beating strategy. Good strategies emphasize difference—versus your direct competitors, versus potential substitutes, and versus potential entrants. (Moi ici: Diferenciação. Recordar este trecho e este outro só de ontem)
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Market participants play out the drama of competition on a stage beset by randomness. Because the evolution of markets is path dependent—that is, its current state at any one time is the sum product of all previous events (Moi ici: O espaço de Minkowski), including a great many random ones—the winners of today are often the accidents of history.
...
To beat the market, therefore, advantages have to be robust and responsive in the face of onrushing market forces. Few companies, in our experience, ask themselves if they are beating the market—the pressures of “just playing along” seem intense enough. But playing along can feel safer than it is. Weaker contenders win surprisingly often in war when they deploy a divergent strategy, and the same is true in business"
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Faz lembrar a primeira encarnação de Michael Schumacher... are you playing to playing or playing to win? Jogar por jogar, ou jogar a feijões?
Continua.
quinta-feira, janeiro 13, 2011
Micro-economia versus macro-economia
Esta é uma velha teimosia minha: a importância da micro-economia sobre a macro-economia num mundo heterogéneo e cada vez mais mongolizado, daí que tenha sorrido ao ler este texto:
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"In the long run it's all microeconomics".
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"In the long run it's all microeconomics".
Um desafio
Quem vive do modelo de negócio actual está tão cego pela sua posição de incumbente, tem tanto a perder com a mudança de modelo de negócio que vai fazer tudo para a adiar, para a combater.
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Quando finalmente reconhecer a inevitabilidade da mudança já o terreno estará ocupado por novos concorrentes, sem custos afundados, sem cadastro, sem modelos mentais obsoletos.
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Leio este artigo "State of Washington to Offer Online Materials as Texts" e penso, e sonho com uma oportunidade para um novo modelo de negócio.
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E se os livros deixarem de existir em papel?
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E se se combinasse PBworks, YouTube, sites wiki, blogs e mais ferramentas, para substituir um ensino baseado no livro e na repetição?
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E que tal, com base no canvas, esboçar um modelo de negócio para esta oportunidade?
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Quando finalmente reconhecer a inevitabilidade da mudança já o terreno estará ocupado por novos concorrentes, sem custos afundados, sem cadastro, sem modelos mentais obsoletos.
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Leio este artigo "State of Washington to Offer Online Materials as Texts" e penso, e sonho com uma oportunidade para um novo modelo de negócio.
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E se os livros deixarem de existir em papel?
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E se se combinasse PBworks, YouTube, sites wiki, blogs e mais ferramentas, para substituir um ensino baseado no livro e na repetição?
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E que tal, com base no canvas, esboçar um modelo de negócio para esta oportunidade?
Somos todos alemães (parte X)
Primeiro, uma referência a um dos meus guias neste desafio de perceber o sucesso alemão e adaptá-lo para solo luso, este pormenor de uma entrevista de Hermann Simon (páginas 14 a 17):
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"Q: What advice would you give an entrepreneur who was striving to learn from Hidden Champions?
A: I would give a young entrepreneur three tips: firstly, be ambitious. Strive to be the best in your market, in your business. Don’t settle for anything less. Secondly: focus on what you are really good at and enjoy. Only focus leads to world class. Nobody is a master in several trades. Thirdly: go out into the world, internationalize, eventually globalize. (Moi ici: O melhor, não o maior. Foco, concentração nos clientes-alvo. E, em vez de dispersar para pagar a estrutura, percorrer o mundo para se concentrar no mesmo tipo de clientes, os que recompensam valor, não os que procuram o preço mais baixo.)
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Read how the Hidden Champoins have done it, they are outstanding role models. Why shouldn’t you achieve what they have achieved?
They are normal guys like you and me. I have personally learned from them and I can assure you, it works."
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“As Prof. Dr. Simon emphasizes, market positions are not redistributed during sunny and calm times, but during times of crisis. Therefore Simon sees real, tangible opportunities for those Hidden Champions which are predominantly independent from external investors. (Moi ici: Não estar na bolsa, ter um dono, permite pensar no longo prazo.)
They can either take over competitors which are struggling during a crisis or can “snatch” market share from them.
The specialization and innovative force of many mid-sized Hidden Champions makes them indispensable for their customers, even if these are temporarily undergoing economic straits. Thus they are protected from extensive pricing pressure.
Furthermore, the barely known global market leaders which are mostly located in rural areas can traditionally count on a highly committed staff, which strongly identifies with company goals and management. This high loyalty helps to remain substantially more flexible during times of low demand and fluctuation of capacity – “Employees and company management are acting in concert”, Prof. Dr. Simon explains the prevailing mentality at Hidden Champions.
The name of the game is to put this ability of flexibility to good use in the current crisis. “Currently ruinous competition and price reductions should be avoided and the price level must be stabilized. It is preferable to temporarily reduce the capacities and quantities being offered.” Prof. Dr. Simon is convinced that discount battles are in vain, as they merely undermine the price level and ultimately do not lead to more demand. It is not a question of price if customers buy less at this point in time, but of the perceived uncertainty. According to Prof. Dr. Simon, a stronger focus on service oriented activities is necessary as well. This aspect has been neglected during the boom of the past few years. It is time to regain part of the lost revenues in this area.”"
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Segundo, esta série "Somos todos alemães" começou aqui por causa da Eslováquia.
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Já lá vão 2 anos e os nossos amigos eslovacos parece que souberam lidar com a moeda forte muito melhor do que nós.
O gráfico começa a 1 de Janeiro de 2006, o que cada país exportou nesse mês é a base 100. A caixa assinala o período após a entrada da Eslováquia na zona euro.
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"Q: What advice would you give an entrepreneur who was striving to learn from Hidden Champions?
A: I would give a young entrepreneur three tips: firstly, be ambitious. Strive to be the best in your market, in your business. Don’t settle for anything less. Secondly: focus on what you are really good at and enjoy. Only focus leads to world class. Nobody is a master in several trades. Thirdly: go out into the world, internationalize, eventually globalize. (Moi ici: O melhor, não o maior. Foco, concentração nos clientes-alvo. E, em vez de dispersar para pagar a estrutura, percorrer o mundo para se concentrar no mesmo tipo de clientes, os que recompensam valor, não os que procuram o preço mais baixo.)
.
Read how the Hidden Champoins have done it, they are outstanding role models. Why shouldn’t you achieve what they have achieved?
They are normal guys like you and me. I have personally learned from them and I can assure you, it works."
.
“As Prof. Dr. Simon emphasizes, market positions are not redistributed during sunny and calm times, but during times of crisis. Therefore Simon sees real, tangible opportunities for those Hidden Champions which are predominantly independent from external investors. (Moi ici: Não estar na bolsa, ter um dono, permite pensar no longo prazo.)
They can either take over competitors which are struggling during a crisis or can “snatch” market share from them.
The specialization and innovative force of many mid-sized Hidden Champions makes them indispensable for their customers, even if these are temporarily undergoing economic straits. Thus they are protected from extensive pricing pressure.
Furthermore, the barely known global market leaders which are mostly located in rural areas can traditionally count on a highly committed staff, which strongly identifies with company goals and management. This high loyalty helps to remain substantially more flexible during times of low demand and fluctuation of capacity – “Employees and company management are acting in concert”, Prof. Dr. Simon explains the prevailing mentality at Hidden Champions.
The name of the game is to put this ability of flexibility to good use in the current crisis. “Currently ruinous competition and price reductions should be avoided and the price level must be stabilized. It is preferable to temporarily reduce the capacities and quantities being offered.” Prof. Dr. Simon is convinced that discount battles are in vain, as they merely undermine the price level and ultimately do not lead to more demand. It is not a question of price if customers buy less at this point in time, but of the perceived uncertainty. According to Prof. Dr. Simon, a stronger focus on service oriented activities is necessary as well. This aspect has been neglected during the boom of the past few years. It is time to regain part of the lost revenues in this area.”"
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Segundo, esta série "Somos todos alemães" começou aqui por causa da Eslováquia.
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Já lá vão 2 anos e os nossos amigos eslovacos parece que souberam lidar com a moeda forte muito melhor do que nós.
quarta-feira, janeiro 12, 2011
Quando ninguém se diferencia, é tão fácil a gente diferenciar-se
Uma vez, um aluno de mestrado escreveu-me um e-mail a relatar as consequências da aplicação dos conceitos de cliente-alvo e concentração. Foi dele que retive a frase com que rematava o relato:
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"Quando ninguém se diferencia, é tão fácil a gente diferenciar-se"
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Foi desta frase que me lembrei com a leitura deste postal de Scott McKain:
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"What Tablet PC's Teach About Sameness... and Distinction"
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Não está a fazer o mesmo na sua empresa?
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E na sua vida?
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A escola quer-nos fazer todos iguais, mas o mundo que se está a desenhar e no qual estamos a embrenhar-nos é para quem é diferente, para quem faz a diferença, para quem procura fazer a diferença.
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"Quando ninguém se diferencia, é tão fácil a gente diferenciar-se"
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Foi desta frase que me lembrei com a leitura deste postal de Scott McKain:
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"What Tablet PC's Teach About Sameness... and Distinction"
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Não está a fazer o mesmo na sua empresa?
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E na sua vida?
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A escola quer-nos fazer todos iguais, mas o mundo que se está a desenhar e no qual estamos a embrenhar-nos é para quem é diferente, para quem faz a diferença, para quem procura fazer a diferença.
A roda já está a girar... (parte II)
O cuco
"Sócrates inicia ofensiva para incentivar exportações" basta recordar "Ainda podia ser melhor".
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As exportações das desprezadas PMEs não tecnológicas cresceram apesar do governo e da oposição que temos. Chega agora a hora de sacar dividendos de filhos alheios.
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As exportações das desprezadas PMEs não tecnológicas cresceram apesar do governo e da oposição que temos. Chega agora a hora de sacar dividendos de filhos alheios.
O futuro não é, necessariamente, uma continuação linear do passado
Recomendo a leitura de "Seeing What Others Miss" de Steven Feinberg e Stephen Denny.
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A descrição da batalha de Leuctra é um bom exemplo da oportunidade criada por quem decide ver a realidade de uma forma diferente da massa, por quem decide fazer com que o futuro não seja uma continuação linear do passado.
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"By 2015, for the first time, the number of consumers in Asia's middle class will equal those in Europe and North America combined."
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Em 2010, as vendas a retalho na China subiram... 18,5%.
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Como é que estes factores vão influenciar o futuro da indústria na Europa?
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É a alteração destes factores abióticos que me faz desconfiar que estes números vão ser ultrapassados:
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A descrição da batalha de Leuctra é um bom exemplo da oportunidade criada por quem decide ver a realidade de uma forma diferente da massa, por quem decide fazer com que o futuro não seja uma continuação linear do passado.
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"By 2015, for the first time, the number of consumers in Asia's middle class will equal those in Europe and North America combined."
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Em 2010, as vendas a retalho na China subiram... 18,5%.
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Como é que estes factores vão influenciar o futuro da indústria na Europa?
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É a alteração destes factores abióticos que me faz desconfiar que estes números vão ser ultrapassados:
"Este perfil acompanha a evolução da procura externa, num quadro em que não se antecipam alterações significativas da competitividade externa da economia portuguesa", escreve o Banco de Portugal no Boletim hoje divulgado".
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A competitividade não é algo absoluto, é sempre relativa. A inflação chinesa está a trabalhar e a fazer mudanças na paisagem competitiva enrugada que a massa ainda não realizou... mas os vasos comunicantes já estão a funcionar.
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As exportações, por muito que cresçam, são uma emanação de menos de 30% da nossa economia. No grosso da economia o ano não vai ser fácil:
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A competitividade não é algo absoluto, é sempre relativa. A inflação chinesa está a trabalhar e a fazer mudanças na paisagem competitiva enrugada que a massa ainda não realizou... mas os vasos comunicantes já estão a funcionar.
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As exportações, por muito que cresçam, são uma emanação de menos de 30% da nossa economia. No grosso da economia o ano não vai ser fácil:
- "Construção antevê mais um ano de retrocesso"
- "Em dois anos o país perderá 60 mil empregos"
- "Vão desaparecer quase 50 mil postos de trabalho este ano"
- "Pedidos de insolvência de construtoras aumentaram 25 por cento no ano passado"
- "Conjuntura: rendimento disponível real das famílias vai cair 2,4% este ano - BdP"
É preciso que aconteça uma re-alocação de recursos para sectores de actividade que remunerem melhor o dinheiro, e os fluxos já estão em marcha.
Só agora...
Só agora é que esta mensagem está a chegar aos jornais...
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"Criar valor"
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"Muitas empresas estabeleceram planos de redução de despesas agressivos. Nas instituições públicas as oportunidades de melhoria são muitas. No entanto, a lógica de redução de custos é insuficiente. Sob pena de a economia portuguesa entrar em recessão durante anos. O desafio para as instituições portuguesas é o da criação de valor. Não é um chavão sem conteúdo. É um conceito que, se bem entendido e aplicado, pode ajudar a resolver os problemas de eficácia e de eficiência das nossas empresas e organizações públicas."
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Tanto atraso!!!
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Qual é a receita alemã? E agora somos todos alemães, com o euro.
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Concentração na criação de valor e não no corte de custos.
Concentração no numerador e não no denominador.
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"Criar valor"
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"Muitas empresas estabeleceram planos de redução de despesas agressivos. Nas instituições públicas as oportunidades de melhoria são muitas. No entanto, a lógica de redução de custos é insuficiente. Sob pena de a economia portuguesa entrar em recessão durante anos. O desafio para as instituições portuguesas é o da criação de valor. Não é um chavão sem conteúdo. É um conceito que, se bem entendido e aplicado, pode ajudar a resolver os problemas de eficácia e de eficiência das nossas empresas e organizações públicas."
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Tanto atraso!!!
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Qual é a receita alemã? E agora somos todos alemães, com o euro.
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Concentração na criação de valor e não no corte de custos.
Concentração no numerador e não no denominador.
The Road to serfdom - parte II
Quem está atento ao que dizem os políticos do sistema, da situação e da oposição, sabe que uma das doenças de que sofrem é a das prioridades. Tudo é prioritário.
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"The only exception to the rule that a free society must not be subjected to a single purpose is war and other temporary disasters when subordination of almost everything to the immediate and pressing need is the price at which we preserve our freedom in the long run. This explains also why so many of the fashionable phrases about doing for the purposes of peace what we have learnt to do for the purposes of war are so very misleading: it is sensible temporarily to sacrifice freedom in order to make it more secure in the future; but the same cannot be said for a system proposed as a permanent arrangement.
That no single purpose must be allowed in peace to have absolute preference over all others applies even to the one aim which everybody now agrees comes in the front rank: the conquest of unemployment. There can be no doubt that this must be the goal of our greatest endeavour; even so, it does not mean that such an aim should be allowed to dominate us to the exclusion of everything else, that, as the glib phrase runs, it must be accomplished "at any price"."
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Trecho retirado de "The Road to Serfdom" de F. Hayek.
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"The only exception to the rule that a free society must not be subjected to a single purpose is war and other temporary disasters when subordination of almost everything to the immediate and pressing need is the price at which we preserve our freedom in the long run. This explains also why so many of the fashionable phrases about doing for the purposes of peace what we have learnt to do for the purposes of war are so very misleading: it is sensible temporarily to sacrifice freedom in order to make it more secure in the future; but the same cannot be said for a system proposed as a permanent arrangement.
That no single purpose must be allowed in peace to have absolute preference over all others applies even to the one aim which everybody now agrees comes in the front rank: the conquest of unemployment. There can be no doubt that this must be the goal of our greatest endeavour; even so, it does not mean that such an aim should be allowed to dominate us to the exclusion of everything else, that, as the glib phrase runs, it must be accomplished "at any price"."
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Trecho retirado de "The Road to Serfdom" de F. Hayek.
Small Giants
Em Setembro passado, no Twitter, Tom Peters recomendou 2 livros:
- "Retail Superstars: Inside the 25 Best Independent Stores in America" de George Whalin; e
- "Small Giants: Companies That Choose to Be Great Instead of Big" de Bo Burlingham
Já os tenho comigo há algum tempo. Ontem comecei a ler o "Small Giants" e está a ser um agradável complemento de "Smart Growth" de Edward Hess:
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"For a conventional business, however, the growth is the goal, and the control is what you need to keep it in hand. With the companies we’re looking at, creating opportunities for employees and opening up new possibilities for the business are the goals. Growth is a natural by-product of the company’s success in pursuing its central purpose and reason for being, whatever that may be.
...
So we sat down and did a lot of soul-searching.
We asked what we did well, what kind of work did we get a better return on, what did we need to improve. And then we changed everything.”
...
“Instead of trying to do it all, we wanted to be the best at a few things. We physically gave up our licenses in other states so we couldn’t work there, and we went from taking every job to questioning every job.” That meant getting rid of customers, including some who’d been with the company for a long time. The team spent hours analyzing the customer base, noting which jobs were more profitable, discussing which niches Butler should be in and which clients played best to its skill set, projecting how economic trends would affect different industries, and so on. Then came the cuts. “We went from twenty-five clients to ten clients,” Butler said. “Mainly we fired the bad ones, including our biggest client”—a giant financial services company —“that accounted for 50 percent of the value of our jobs. The people they had on our projects were demeaning to us. They’d lie and make us look like fools. We told them we didn’t want to work with them anymore.”"
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Por todo o lado a mensagem: concentração, concentração, concentração!!!
...
So we sat down and did a lot of soul-searching.
We asked what we did well, what kind of work did we get a better return on, what did we need to improve. And then we changed everything.”
...
“Instead of trying to do it all, we wanted to be the best at a few things. We physically gave up our licenses in other states so we couldn’t work there, and we went from taking every job to questioning every job.” That meant getting rid of customers, including some who’d been with the company for a long time. The team spent hours analyzing the customer base, noting which jobs were more profitable, discussing which niches Butler should be in and which clients played best to its skill set, projecting how economic trends would affect different industries, and so on. Then came the cuts. “We went from twenty-five clients to ten clients,” Butler said. “Mainly we fired the bad ones, including our biggest client”—a giant financial services company —“that accounted for 50 percent of the value of our jobs. The people they had on our projects were demeaning to us. They’d lie and make us look like fools. We told them we didn’t want to work with them anymore.”"
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Por todo o lado a mensagem: concentração, concentração, concentração!!!
terça-feira, janeiro 11, 2011
Como nascem os monumentos à treta
Ao definir indicadores para um balanced scorecard, por vezes, as pessoas resistem a serem avaliadas por indicadores de fenómenos que não podem controlar.
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A minha resposta costuma ser: "É a vida!"
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É essa sensação que leva os Programas de Actividades na Função Pública a serem listas e mais listas de actividades, aquilo que as pessoas podem fazer, aquilo que as pessoas podem controlar e não haver nem uma referência a objectivos concretos, a metas, a resultados. Basta recordar os monumentos à treta.
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Foi desta cena que me lembrei ao ler:
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"There was a pause. They were all studying the flip chart. Someone frowned. “We ourselves cannot stop market share from declining,” he said. “Do we want to be measured on that?”
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“Strictly speaking, no,” replied Joe, “but it is the purpose behind everything we are doing. If the rate at which we’re losing share goes down, we’ll know what we’re doing is working, even if we don’t hit the target. If we don’t look at it, we might be barking up the wrong tree.”
“What about what we are measured on?” someone piped up. “We’ve all got targets. Dozens of them.”
So they had, including Joe himself. Part of his bonus was tied to the number of new products delivered.
Optimizing that would not be difficult - he could just go for the easy development projects nearest completion.
But they might not have the most impact.
“Look,” he said, “I’ll make a commitment to you. I will renegotiate the targets for this group. I’ll explain what we are doing and that the measures are just there to tell us whether we’re successful or not.
The outcome is what we’re trying to optimize.
The measures are the dashboard. We should not confuse the readings on it with what we really
want to do, which is to arrive on time at our destination."
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Trecho retirado de "How to Make the Most of Your Company’s Strategy" de Stephen Bungay e publicado no número de Janeiro de 2011 da HBR
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A minha resposta costuma ser: "É a vida!"
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É essa sensação que leva os Programas de Actividades na Função Pública a serem listas e mais listas de actividades, aquilo que as pessoas podem fazer, aquilo que as pessoas podem controlar e não haver nem uma referência a objectivos concretos, a metas, a resultados. Basta recordar os monumentos à treta.
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Foi desta cena que me lembrei ao ler:
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"There was a pause. They were all studying the flip chart. Someone frowned. “We ourselves cannot stop market share from declining,” he said. “Do we want to be measured on that?”
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“Strictly speaking, no,” replied Joe, “but it is the purpose behind everything we are doing. If the rate at which we’re losing share goes down, we’ll know what we’re doing is working, even if we don’t hit the target. If we don’t look at it, we might be barking up the wrong tree.”
“What about what we are measured on?” someone piped up. “We’ve all got targets. Dozens of them.”
So they had, including Joe himself. Part of his bonus was tied to the number of new products delivered.
Optimizing that would not be difficult - he could just go for the easy development projects nearest completion.
But they might not have the most impact.
“Look,” he said, “I’ll make a commitment to you. I will renegotiate the targets for this group. I’ll explain what we are doing and that the measures are just there to tell us whether we’re successful or not.
The outcome is what we’re trying to optimize.
The measures are the dashboard. We should not confuse the readings on it with what we really
want to do, which is to arrive on time at our destination."
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Trecho retirado de "How to Make the Most of Your Company’s Strategy" de Stephen Bungay e publicado no número de Janeiro de 2011 da HBR
Estratégias híbridas e puras... risco, flexibilidade e rentabilidade
No postal de 2008 "Não há almoços grátis: Há que optar" utilizei e expliquei a figura que se segue:
Quanto mais pura for a estratégia, afinal a ideia ideia por detrás do mosaico:
Quanto mais pura for a estratégia, afinal a ideia ideia por detrás do mosaico:
- maior a rentabilidade;
- mas também, maior o risco e menor a flexibilidade, num mundo cada vez mais carregado de incerteza.
É preciso fazer escolhas!!!
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Uns decisores optam por mais risco e outros por menos risco. Uns são beneficiados e outros pagam o preço das decisões honestas que tomaram e falharam. É, também assim, que nasce a heterogeneidade dentro de um mesmo sector de actividade.
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William Barnett em "The Red Queen Among Organizations - How Competitiveness Evolves" aborda este tema:
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"A fundamental argument in modern organization theory is that the process of change is especially hazardous the more that the change disrupts established organizational routines, roles, procedures, capabilities, and
identities. Put differently, the more capable and established an organization, the more that changing the organization is disruptive. Being well adapted implies the ability to perform well but also acts to constrain attempts to alter organizational activities. Organizational change is difficult and hazardous precisely when organizations are well adapted to their environment.
...
Competition-Inertia Hypothesis: The more an organization experiences a history of competition in one context, the more hazardous it will be for the organization to move into another context.
One implication of this hypothesis is that organizations do not become inert in isolation, but rather they do so in the company of their competitors.
As one organization competes and becomes well adapted to its context, and so less able to change significantly, its competitors are in the same situation. This raises again the problem of organizations collectively descending into competency traps, as discussed in chapter 3. If organizations turn to one another as social referents, then they may learn from one another. Such learning, however, promises to reinforce inertia as competing organizations collectively become both better adapted to one environment and especially vulnerable to disruption should they change to another." (Moi ici: Daí que quando os factores abióticos mudam e influenciam negativamente, é como se uma epidemia atacasse todo um sector)
identities. Put differently, the more capable and established an organization, the more that changing the organization is disruptive. Being well adapted implies the ability to perform well but also acts to constrain attempts to alter organizational activities. Organizational change is difficult and hazardous precisely when organizations are well adapted to their environment.
...
Competition-Inertia Hypothesis: The more an organization experiences a history of competition in one context, the more hazardous it will be for the organization to move into another context.
One implication of this hypothesis is that organizations do not become inert in isolation, but rather they do so in the company of their competitors.
As one organization competes and becomes well adapted to its context, and so less able to change significantly, its competitors are in the same situation. This raises again the problem of organizations collectively descending into competency traps, as discussed in chapter 3. If organizations turn to one another as social referents, then they may learn from one another. Such learning, however, promises to reinforce inertia as competing organizations collectively become both better adapted to one environment and especially vulnerable to disruption should they change to another." (Moi ici: Daí que quando os factores abióticos mudam e influenciam negativamente, é como se uma epidemia atacasse todo um sector)
Macedónia
- "Ministro brasileiro alerta para ameaça de uma guerra comercial à escala global" (Moi ici: Gosto sempre destes apartes, sobretudos quando vêm de um ministro de um país que mantém taxas alfandegárias que rondam os 30% sobre algumas exportações portuguesas)
- "Portugal vai ter de pagar mais para garantir a alimentação" (Moi ici: O que os jornais não dizem mas eu arrisco afirmar é: Se não importássemos pagávamos ainda mais por eles)
- "The Cover-Up Culture" (Moi ici: Não é só por cá que se cultiva o segredo e a negação da realidade)
- "By 2015, for the first time, the number of consumers in Asia's middle class will equal those in Europe and North America combined." (Moi ici: Será que as fábricas asiáticas mal vão dar para o consumo dos asiáticos? Conseguem imaginar as consequências desse cenário?)
- "Novas encomendas às fábricas disparam 24,5% em Novembro"
segunda-feira, janeiro 10, 2011
Paralelismos
"“Understand, when you’re in the middle of a financial crisis, you’re surrounded by chaos. Everybody is calling you wanting to know when they’re getting paid. Your only concern is keeping your company afloat. When your lawyer says, ‘Maybe we should look at Chapter 11,’ you say, ‘Hell, no. That is not an option. Don’t bring it up again.’ You simply don’t accept that you can’t turn things around. So you plunge ahead and get swallowed up in the day-to-day minutiae and sink deeper and deeper. You need to collect your receivables quicker, so you ratchet up the pressure on your customers, who don’t like to be pressured. You need to hold on to your cash, so you stall your vendors, who don’t like to be stalled. Your employees know something is going on. They’re getting calls of their own. But you’re isolated. You really don’t want to talk to anybody. You’re in this downward spiral, and you can’t cut costs fast enough. Maybe you last another three or four weeks, but it’s complete torture. By the time you realize you may have to look at Chapter 11 after all, there’s nothing else to do."
.
Trecho retirado de "Small Giants - Companies That Choose to Be Great Instead of Big" de Bo BurlingHam.
.
Trecho retirado de "Small Giants - Companies That Choose to Be Great Instead of Big" de Bo BurlingHam.
A Geração Maio de 68 e a economia socialista...
A juventude, os que têm menos a perder com a mudança, por todo o lado fogem do socialismo:
.
"Young people are fleeing Portugal in droves. But is this a bad thing?"
.
"No Italian jobs"
.
"No voy a volver a España nunca"
.
"Young people are fleeing Portugal in droves. But is this a bad thing?"
.
"No Italian jobs"
.
"No voy a volver a España nunca"
Smart Growth
Acabei a leitura de "Smart Growth" de Edward Hess.
.
Valeu a pena!
.
O autor empastela um bocado, mas a leitura do capítulo 8 "Managing the Risks of Growth - Private Companies" só por si vale o livro todo.
.
Nele, o autor, lista as conclusões de um estudo que fez a 54 empresas "I looked at companies that were part of the small group that had survived the start- up phase and had been through a high- growth phase."
.
As conclusões gerais são:
.
"I found that growth equaled change. Growth changed the companies— their culture, their people, and how they did business. Growth changed the human dynamics of how people communicated and with whom they communicated.
It challenged peoples’ competencies and interpersonal skills. Furthermore, for these companies, the human dynamic of growth proved to be one of the biggest challenges of managing growth. And this challenge recurred as the companies grew because many management teams were not able to manage a bigger or more complex business. As a result, CEOs had to continuously upgrade these teams and face the difficulties of hiring and integrating new players into existing management teams, which oft en stirred up difficult emotional and loyalty issues for remaining team members.
These human dynamics made growth difficult to manage, and it also made smooth and continuous growth rare."
.
Quem conhece este blogue sabe o quanto aprecio "Volume is Vanity, Profit is Sanity", e o quanto duvido do crescer por crescer:
.
"1.Most companies did not plan for growth. In some cases, it just happened. Those CEOs regretted not thinking about what a bigger company would look like and regretted not thinking about how much growth their company could accommodate. Some companies were overwhelmed by growth and had to slow growth down in order to survive. Others understood the risks of growing too fast before they had the people and quality and financial processes in place and, thus, they turned away business until they were more prepared for growth.
...
2.As they learned that growth was a difficult process and was sometimes a one-step-forward-and- two-steps-backward process, they learned the need to manage the pace of growth. Many CEOs said their companies became better when they learned to say no to new opportunities. Learning to focus and being strategic in taking on business led to a “sweet- spot” strategy for many.
...
3.Growth changed things. Growth changed what the CEO did. Growth changed what the employees did. Growth added people and more structure. And when they added new people to the mix, they got different human dynamics than before. The chemistry changed. When the management teams expanded, the different combinations of interpersonal dynamics multiplied the people complexity, which impacted execution. Growth increased the complexity of communications and the chance of miscommunications and interpersonal misunderstandings.
...
4.CEOs had to learn how to delegate and, as one said, “Delegation is not a natural act.” Delegation was a consistent diffi cult issue for CEOs.
...
5.Most companies had difficulties in building a management team because of multiple hiring mistakes. These mistakes were financially and emotionally costly.
...
6.Even if assembling a management team went well, many CEOs were surprised at the difficulty of getting that team to work together effectively.
...
7.Managing the pace of growth presented a major challenge for many companies. For some, growth happened too fast, forcing companies to put on the brakes to allow the people, processes, and controls to catch up. Some, in fact, came close to losing the business because they grew too fast.
...
8.As these private companies grew, the roles of CEOs changed, often dramatically. CEOs who initially did everything had to shift to managing everything, to managing managers, and then to coaching managers and leading culture and strategy.
...
9.Most CEOs learned that growth required them to upgrade their people. This caused stress because such changes adversely affected loyal employees who had helped build the business. Many CEOs stated that they had to undertake these difficult upgrades more than once. Given the risks of making mistakes in hires described above, the added stress of disrupting loyal employees and changing team dynamics was wearing on CEOs, who yearned for team stability. Many CEOs said the challenges of hiring and managing a leadership team was the hardest part of the job.
...
10.Growth was not an easy process and the various tensions usually resulted in a zig-zag pattern of growth. Managing company growth created tensions between professional accountability and having a family environment; between managing the rate of growth versus delivering quality; between being cautious about turning business away and also worrying that too much business would overwhelm people and processes.
...
11.Many CEOs stressed that they had to get honest with themselves and at some point question why they should continue to grow and whether growth would change them and their company so much that the business would no longer be fun.
...
13.Some of the CEOs were cognizant of the fact that at a certain revenue level they were likely going to engage bigger, well- capitalized competition.
That competition would expose them to significant risk and may require taking on an institutional partner or selling. Both alternatives meant big changes for the company, the CEOs, and the employees. In some cases, the CEO’s goal was to keep his or her revenue level below that
inflection point."
.
Valeu a pena!
.
O autor empastela um bocado, mas a leitura do capítulo 8 "Managing the Risks of Growth - Private Companies" só por si vale o livro todo.
.
Nele, o autor, lista as conclusões de um estudo que fez a 54 empresas "I looked at companies that were part of the small group that had survived the start- up phase and had been through a high- growth phase."
.
As conclusões gerais são:
.
"I found that growth equaled change. Growth changed the companies— their culture, their people, and how they did business. Growth changed the human dynamics of how people communicated and with whom they communicated.
It challenged peoples’ competencies and interpersonal skills. Furthermore, for these companies, the human dynamic of growth proved to be one of the biggest challenges of managing growth. And this challenge recurred as the companies grew because many management teams were not able to manage a bigger or more complex business. As a result, CEOs had to continuously upgrade these teams and face the difficulties of hiring and integrating new players into existing management teams, which oft en stirred up difficult emotional and loyalty issues for remaining team members.
These human dynamics made growth difficult to manage, and it also made smooth and continuous growth rare."
.
Quem conhece este blogue sabe o quanto aprecio "Volume is Vanity, Profit is Sanity", e o quanto duvido do crescer por crescer:
.
"1.Most companies did not plan for growth. In some cases, it just happened. Those CEOs regretted not thinking about what a bigger company would look like and regretted not thinking about how much growth their company could accommodate. Some companies were overwhelmed by growth and had to slow growth down in order to survive. Others understood the risks of growing too fast before they had the people and quality and financial processes in place and, thus, they turned away business until they were more prepared for growth.
...
2.As they learned that growth was a difficult process and was sometimes a one-step-forward-and- two-steps-backward process, they learned the need to manage the pace of growth. Many CEOs said their companies became better when they learned to say no to new opportunities. Learning to focus and being strategic in taking on business led to a “sweet- spot” strategy for many.
...
3.Growth changed things. Growth changed what the CEO did. Growth changed what the employees did. Growth added people and more structure. And when they added new people to the mix, they got different human dynamics than before. The chemistry changed. When the management teams expanded, the different combinations of interpersonal dynamics multiplied the people complexity, which impacted execution. Growth increased the complexity of communications and the chance of miscommunications and interpersonal misunderstandings.
...
4.CEOs had to learn how to delegate and, as one said, “Delegation is not a natural act.” Delegation was a consistent diffi cult issue for CEOs.
...
5.Most companies had difficulties in building a management team because of multiple hiring mistakes. These mistakes were financially and emotionally costly.
...
6.Even if assembling a management team went well, many CEOs were surprised at the difficulty of getting that team to work together effectively.
...
7.Managing the pace of growth presented a major challenge for many companies. For some, growth happened too fast, forcing companies to put on the brakes to allow the people, processes, and controls to catch up. Some, in fact, came close to losing the business because they grew too fast.
...
8.As these private companies grew, the roles of CEOs changed, often dramatically. CEOs who initially did everything had to shift to managing everything, to managing managers, and then to coaching managers and leading culture and strategy.
...
9.Most CEOs learned that growth required them to upgrade their people. This caused stress because such changes adversely affected loyal employees who had helped build the business. Many CEOs stated that they had to undertake these difficult upgrades more than once. Given the risks of making mistakes in hires described above, the added stress of disrupting loyal employees and changing team dynamics was wearing on CEOs, who yearned for team stability. Many CEOs said the challenges of hiring and managing a leadership team was the hardest part of the job.
...
10.Growth was not an easy process and the various tensions usually resulted in a zig-zag pattern of growth. Managing company growth created tensions between professional accountability and having a family environment; between managing the rate of growth versus delivering quality; between being cautious about turning business away and also worrying that too much business would overwhelm people and processes.
...
11.Many CEOs stressed that they had to get honest with themselves and at some point question why they should continue to grow and whether growth would change them and their company so much that the business would no longer be fun.
...
13.Some of the CEOs were cognizant of the fact that at a certain revenue level they were likely going to engage bigger, well- capitalized competition.
That competition would expose them to significant risk and may require taking on an institutional partner or selling. Both alternatives meant big changes for the company, the CEOs, and the employees. In some cases, the CEO’s goal was to keep his or her revenue level below that
inflection point."
Inovação e Mongo de braço dado
Numa paisagem competitiva cada vez mais enrugada existem cada vez mais óptimos locais, existem cada vez mais atractores dispersos, existem cada vez mais nichos.
.
Por isso, há muito que prevejo a mongolização do planeta Terra numa explosão câmbrica de pequenas empresas a competirem em cada um desses muitos nichos.
.
Ao longo dos anos, a suportar, a influenciar e a alimentar esta crença, encontro artigos deste tipo "Innovation in large companies", aqui vai um cheirinho:
.
"What`s interesting is that most of the innovations I identified came from small companies or independent researchers and inventors. Large companies like Dupont, 3M and Bayer were also innovating but most of the exciting innovations were coming from else where – some very small companies and independent inventors.
Innovation is risky business. It starts with an idea from an individual inside the company. The fragile idea will run into so many hardships from within the company let alone technical difficulties. It is unfortunate, but it is natural. Most people working in large companies are working there because they are risk-averse anyway. If they were risk takers and truly innovative they would have started their own companies." (BTW, este sítio é fascinante "Inventables")
.
Na mesma onda
.
"Is the problem with capitalism that people are trying to fix it?":
.
"we are now entering a new and very different third era of capitalism - "customer capitalism" or “Capitalism 3.0”.
.
Capitalism 3.0 involves a wholesale revolution in management thinking focused on "delighting customers" and redefining managerial roles, coordination mechansisms, values and communications so that everyone and everything in the firm is oriented towards accomplishing this goal. It means reversing the value chain and starting from what would delight the client and focusing the entire organization on that goal." (Moi ici: uma constante neste blogue: Primeiro, quem são os clientes-alvo? E, depois, focar tudo em satisfazê-lo)
.
"The organization starts from looking at the needs of the customer or client and orienting the whole organization on meeting those needs. The reason for doing so is simple: the balance of power dramatically has shifted from seller to buyer: the customer is now the boss."
.
Na mesma onda "Reinventing capitalism":
.
"I believe that everybody benefits, if in the future a larger number of workers think like owners and act like investors."
.
Na mesma onda este comentário de Steve Blank.
.
Por isso, há muito que prevejo a mongolização do planeta Terra numa explosão câmbrica de pequenas empresas a competirem em cada um desses muitos nichos.
.
Ao longo dos anos, a suportar, a influenciar e a alimentar esta crença, encontro artigos deste tipo "Innovation in large companies", aqui vai um cheirinho:
.
"What`s interesting is that most of the innovations I identified came from small companies or independent researchers and inventors. Large companies like Dupont, 3M and Bayer were also innovating but most of the exciting innovations were coming from else where – some very small companies and independent inventors.
Innovation is risky business. It starts with an idea from an individual inside the company. The fragile idea will run into so many hardships from within the company let alone technical difficulties. It is unfortunate, but it is natural. Most people working in large companies are working there because they are risk-averse anyway. If they were risk takers and truly innovative they would have started their own companies." (BTW, este sítio é fascinante "Inventables")
.
Na mesma onda
.
"Is the problem with capitalism that people are trying to fix it?":
.
"we are now entering a new and very different third era of capitalism - "customer capitalism" or “Capitalism 3.0”.
.
Capitalism 3.0 involves a wholesale revolution in management thinking focused on "delighting customers" and redefining managerial roles, coordination mechansisms, values and communications so that everyone and everything in the firm is oriented towards accomplishing this goal. It means reversing the value chain and starting from what would delight the client and focusing the entire organization on that goal." (Moi ici: uma constante neste blogue: Primeiro, quem são os clientes-alvo? E, depois, focar tudo em satisfazê-lo)
.
"The organization starts from looking at the needs of the customer or client and orienting the whole organization on meeting those needs. The reason for doing so is simple: the balance of power dramatically has shifted from seller to buyer: the customer is now the boss."
.
Na mesma onda "Reinventing capitalism":
.
"I believe that everybody benefits, if in the future a larger number of workers think like owners and act like investors."
.
Na mesma onda este comentário de Steve Blank.
5 empresas numa
Uma das metáforas que uso com frequência, para representar o funcionamento das equipas de gestão das empresas, é a do jongleur.
Acredito que quando olhamos para uma empresa não vemos uma empresa, devemos ver quatro empresas:
- a empresa de hoje;
- a empresa do futuro;
- a empresa em construção; e
- a empresa feedback
Nestes postais "Jongleurs: será mesmo assim?" e "Exemplo de balanced scorecard (parte VI)" detalhei este pensamento.
.
Entretanto, descobri um livro de Vasconcellos e Sá "A empresa negligenciada" (Jongleurs) em que o autor defende que existem, ou deviam existir, duas empresas numa:
- a empresa de hoje, e
- a empresa do futuro, (a tal empresa negligenciada)
Pois bem, este mês a revista HBR publica "The CEO's Role In Business Model Reinvention" de Vijay Govindarajan e Chris Trimble.
.
Neste artigo os autores defendem que quando se olha para uma empresa... devemos ver 3 empresas em simultâneo:
- a empresa de hoje;
- a empresa de ontem; e
- a empresa do futuro.
Os autores chegam mesmo a escrever "Before you can create, you must forget". Ou seja, introduzem no cenário a empresa de ontem, a empresa que precisa de ser eliminada "pruning lines of business that are underperforming or no longer fit the company's strategy."
.
Em tempos escrevi uma série de postais "Como descobri que não é suficiente optimizar os processos-chave." (parte I) (parte II) e (parte III), na sequência da leitura de "Dealing with Darwin" de Geoffrey Moore, onde relatei a descoberta de que afinal os processos contexto também deviam ser objecto de iniciativas, para torná-los mais eficientes e, assim, poder retirar recursos escassos para aplicar nos processos críticos para o negócio.
.
Ou seja, quando olhamos para uma empresa não vemos uma empresa, devemos ver cinco empresas:
.
Ou seja, quando olhamos para uma empresa não vemos uma empresa, devemos ver cinco empresas:
- a empresa de ontem,
- a empresa de hoje;
- a empresa do futuro;
- a empresa em construção; e
- a empresa feedback
domingo, janeiro 09, 2011
Há um certo perfume a "cargo cult policy"
Se fizermos muito buzz sobre "exportações, exportações, exportações" elas vão ocorrer!
.
"Primeiro-ministro anuncia Congresso das Exportações para 9 de Fevereiro"
.
.
Ou será para perfilhar um filho que não é dele?
.
E colher os louros da vitória merecidos por quem conseguiu dar a volta, apesar dos políticos da situação e da oposição que temos?
.
"Primeiro-ministro anuncia Congresso das Exportações para 9 de Fevereiro"
.
.
Ou será para perfilhar um filho que não é dele?
.
E colher os louros da vitória merecidos por quem conseguiu dar a volta, apesar dos políticos da situação e da oposição que temos?
A roda já está a girar...
- "Alemanha e França querem que Portugal aceite ajuda"
- "“Der Spiegel” diz que Alemanha e França querem que Portugal aceite ajuda financeira"
- "Alemanha e França querem que Portugal aceite ajuda financeira"
- "Mercados continuam a empurrar Portugal para uma ajuda externa"
- "Cavaco surpreendido com notícias sobre ajuda a Portugal"
- "Cavaco desconhece qualquer pressão para que Portugal peça ajuda"
- "Alemanha e França pressionam Portugal a pedir ajuda, diz a revista Der Spiegel"
- "Portugal deve recorrer ao fundo de resgate "rapidamente""
- "São “inaceitáveis" pressões para Portugal recorrer ao FMI"
Tentar descortinar futuros hipotéticos que não são continuações lineares do passado
Ontem escrevi "Alimentar discussões sobre hipotéticos futuros" e "Uma investigação que precisava de ser feita - uma emergência que precisava de ser reconhecida" sobre um tema que me é muito caro, pôr as empresas e os empresários a pensar num futuro hipotético que não seja uma continuação linear do passado, para ganhar a vantagem de cavalgar a onda da mudança, em vez de correr atrás do prejuízo com as calças na mão.
.
Ontem descobri mais um artigo que merecia ser objecto de reflexão por parte dos empresários "China Manufacturing and Transport Cost Showing Sharp Rise – Trends and Implications for Business":
.
"China is becoming America – fast. Before we know it, we will be bringing jobs back here to the US. You might think that jobs would migrate to India or Southeast Asia next, and there will be some of that, but the inflation occurring in China will happen to those countries too as they move up the income and consumption curve."
.
Ontem o John escreveu num comentário "conheço alguns amigos meus que nunca fizeram uma análise swot e têm sucesso".
.
A minha resposta instintiva foi recordar uma entrevista a um bispo italiano em que o entrevistador lhe perguntou:
- Já reparou na quantidade de pessoas que vão à missa todos os Domingos e que, no entanto, são maus como as cobras?
Ao que o bispo lhe respondeu:
- Se não fossem à missa eram bem piores!
.
Pois bem, muito sinceramente, ainda bem para esses amigos do aluno. Mas será que não poderiam ainda ficar melhor se reflectissem sobre a sua situação e racionalizassem o porquê do seu sucesso? Será que poderiam ampliar ainda mais as vantagens competitivas de que desfrutam?
.
Voltando ao artigo sobre a evolução da sociedade de consumo chinesa, quais podem ser as implicações para a indústria na Europa e, sobretudo, em Portugal?
.
Os americanos queixam-se disto "Reminiscences Of An American Industrial Nation - How In A Few Short Years America Lost Its Manufacturing Sector" (BTW, ainda há dias escrevia sobre a facilidade de obter capital como uma forma de promover a deslocalização rápida de empresas e, como uma forma de atrasar ou evitar a subida na escala de valor).
.
Os empresários podem sofrer da falácia da centralidade:
.
"Researcher Ron Westrum, observing the diagnostic practices of pediatricians in the 1940s and 1950s, spotted what he has come to call the fallacy of centrality. The fallacy is this: under the assumption that you are in a central position, you presume that if something serious were happening, you would know about it. And since you don’t know about it, it isn’t happening. It is precisely this distortion that kept pediatricians from diagnosing child abuse until the early 1960s. Their reasoning? If parents were abusing their children, I’d know about it; since I don’t know about it, it isn’t happening." (daqui)
.
Assim sendo, quando é que podem tomar consciência de que algo de importante mudou, ou está a mudar, a nível dos factores abióticos que influenciam a paisagem competitiva enrugada em que competem? (O timing é fundamental como conta Soros "I'm only rich because I know when I'm wrong... I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes. I very often used to get backaches due to the fact that I was wrong. Whenever you are wrong you have to fight or [take] flight. When [I] make the decision, the backache goes away") (daqui)
.
James March e Barbara Levitt escreveram em 1988 o artigo "Organizational Learning". Chamo a atenção para o tema "Learning from the experience of others" e sobretudo para "Mechanisms for Diffusion". Não é fácil para uma organização aprender!
.
A coisa complica-se mais quando se lê o terceiro capítulo de "The Red Queen Among Organizations - How Competitiveness Evolves" de William Barnett:
.
"Organizational evolution is constrained in three ways. First, organizations are temporally constrained, sometimes “forgetting” valuable lessons and other times retaining the lessons of the past even when environmental change renders this outcome maladaptive. Second, the Red Queen describes a coevolutionary process among multiple organizations, but what is done in response to one competitor may constrain what can be done in response to another. This interdependence implies what might be thought of as a spatial constraint, affecting organizations that attempt to adapt to multiple, conflicting logics of competition simultaneously. Third, organizational learning is known to be constrained by the limitations of direct organizational experience, which often constitute biased samples of possible competitive realities."
.
Barnett e March & Levitt escrevem sobre a aprendizagem míope:
.
"Given that learning in Red Queen evolution is experiential, myopic learning might plague organizations as they develop through this process.
Myopic learning would arise if an organization were to experience a relatively narrow range of competitions, leaving it with a limited and biased understanding of the context’s logic of competition.
…
More generally, the myopia problem appears whenever an organization’s competitive experiences are focused too narrowly on a small range of all possible competitions. When this bias arises, an organization becomes poorly adapted to other possible competitions even as it learns."
.
Conversar sobre futuros hipotéticos, não para impor modelos ou respostas, mas para alertar as mentes que individualmente serão despertadas para realidades alternativas.
.
Ontem descobri mais um artigo que merecia ser objecto de reflexão por parte dos empresários "China Manufacturing and Transport Cost Showing Sharp Rise – Trends and Implications for Business":
.
"China is becoming America – fast. Before we know it, we will be bringing jobs back here to the US. You might think that jobs would migrate to India or Southeast Asia next, and there will be some of that, but the inflation occurring in China will happen to those countries too as they move up the income and consumption curve."
.
Ontem o John escreveu num comentário "conheço alguns amigos meus que nunca fizeram uma análise swot e têm sucesso".
.
A minha resposta instintiva foi recordar uma entrevista a um bispo italiano em que o entrevistador lhe perguntou:
- Já reparou na quantidade de pessoas que vão à missa todos os Domingos e que, no entanto, são maus como as cobras?
Ao que o bispo lhe respondeu:
- Se não fossem à missa eram bem piores!
.
Pois bem, muito sinceramente, ainda bem para esses amigos do aluno. Mas será que não poderiam ainda ficar melhor se reflectissem sobre a sua situação e racionalizassem o porquê do seu sucesso? Será que poderiam ampliar ainda mais as vantagens competitivas de que desfrutam?
.
Voltando ao artigo sobre a evolução da sociedade de consumo chinesa, quais podem ser as implicações para a indústria na Europa e, sobretudo, em Portugal?
.
Os americanos queixam-se disto "Reminiscences Of An American Industrial Nation - How In A Few Short Years America Lost Its Manufacturing Sector" (BTW, ainda há dias escrevia sobre a facilidade de obter capital como uma forma de promover a deslocalização rápida de empresas e, como uma forma de atrasar ou evitar a subida na escala de valor).
.
Os empresários podem sofrer da falácia da centralidade:
.
"Researcher Ron Westrum, observing the diagnostic practices of pediatricians in the 1940s and 1950s, spotted what he has come to call the fallacy of centrality. The fallacy is this: under the assumption that you are in a central position, you presume that if something serious were happening, you would know about it. And since you don’t know about it, it isn’t happening. It is precisely this distortion that kept pediatricians from diagnosing child abuse until the early 1960s. Their reasoning? If parents were abusing their children, I’d know about it; since I don’t know about it, it isn’t happening." (daqui)
.
Assim sendo, quando é que podem tomar consciência de que algo de importante mudou, ou está a mudar, a nível dos factores abióticos que influenciam a paisagem competitiva enrugada em que competem? (O timing é fundamental como conta Soros "I'm only rich because I know when I'm wrong... I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes. I very often used to get backaches due to the fact that I was wrong. Whenever you are wrong you have to fight or [take] flight. When [I] make the decision, the backache goes away") (daqui)
.
James March e Barbara Levitt escreveram em 1988 o artigo "Organizational Learning". Chamo a atenção para o tema "Learning from the experience of others" e sobretudo para "Mechanisms for Diffusion". Não é fácil para uma organização aprender!
.
A coisa complica-se mais quando se lê o terceiro capítulo de "The Red Queen Among Organizations - How Competitiveness Evolves" de William Barnett:
.
"Organizational evolution is constrained in three ways. First, organizations are temporally constrained, sometimes “forgetting” valuable lessons and other times retaining the lessons of the past even when environmental change renders this outcome maladaptive. Second, the Red Queen describes a coevolutionary process among multiple organizations, but what is done in response to one competitor may constrain what can be done in response to another. This interdependence implies what might be thought of as a spatial constraint, affecting organizations that attempt to adapt to multiple, conflicting logics of competition simultaneously. Third, organizational learning is known to be constrained by the limitations of direct organizational experience, which often constitute biased samples of possible competitive realities."
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Barnett e March & Levitt escrevem sobre a aprendizagem míope:
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"Given that learning in Red Queen evolution is experiential, myopic learning might plague organizations as they develop through this process.
Myopic learning would arise if an organization were to experience a relatively narrow range of competitions, leaving it with a limited and biased understanding of the context’s logic of competition.
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More generally, the myopia problem appears whenever an organization’s competitive experiences are focused too narrowly on a small range of all possible competitions. When this bias arises, an organization becomes poorly adapted to other possible competitions even as it learns."
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Conversar sobre futuros hipotéticos, não para impor modelos ou respostas, mas para alertar as mentes que individualmente serão despertadas para realidades alternativas.
Desenvolver indicadores para a perspectiva Recursos e Infra-estruturas (parte 5 de 4)
Em tempos escrevi este postal "Desenvolver indicadores para a perspectiva Recursos e Infra-estruturas (parte 4 de 4)".
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Nele confessava a minha insatisfação, a minha incomodidade ao lidar com o tema da cultura de uma empresa.
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Este trecho de "Rework" de Jason Fried e David Hansson vem ao encontro da sensação descrita acima. Não a resolve mas ajuda-me a explicá-la:
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"You don't create a culture
Instant cultures are artificial cultures. They're big bangs made of mission statements, declarations, and rules. They are obvious, ugly, and plastic. Artificial culture is paint. Real culture is patina.
You don't create a culture. It happens. This is why new companies don't have a culture. Culture is the byproduct of consistent behavior. If you encourage people to share, then sharing will be built into your culture. If you reward trust, then trust will be built in. If you treat customers right, then treating customers right becomes your culture.
Culture isn't a foosball table or trust falls. It isn't policy. It isn't the Christmas party or the company picnic. Those are objects and events, not culture. And it's not a slogan, either. Culture is action, not words.
So don't worry too much about it. Don't force it. You can't install a culture. Like a fine scotch, you've got to give it time to develop."
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Se cultura é acção, se cultura é patina, se cultura é o subproduto de um padrão consistente de comportamentos. Então, se fizermos uma viagem no tempo até ao futuro... que comportamentos e que acções gostaríamos de observar?
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Nele confessava a minha insatisfação, a minha incomodidade ao lidar com o tema da cultura de uma empresa.
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Este trecho de "Rework" de Jason Fried e David Hansson vem ao encontro da sensação descrita acima. Não a resolve mas ajuda-me a explicá-la:
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"You don't create a culture
Instant cultures are artificial cultures. They're big bangs made of mission statements, declarations, and rules. They are obvious, ugly, and plastic. Artificial culture is paint. Real culture is patina.
You don't create a culture. It happens. This is why new companies don't have a culture. Culture is the byproduct of consistent behavior. If you encourage people to share, then sharing will be built into your culture. If you reward trust, then trust will be built in. If you treat customers right, then treating customers right becomes your culture.
Culture isn't a foosball table or trust falls. It isn't policy. It isn't the Christmas party or the company picnic. Those are objects and events, not culture. And it's not a slogan, either. Culture is action, not words.
So don't worry too much about it. Don't force it. You can't install a culture. Like a fine scotch, you've got to give it time to develop."
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Se cultura é acção, se cultura é patina, se cultura é o subproduto de um padrão consistente de comportamentos. Então, se fizermos uma viagem no tempo até ao futuro... que comportamentos e que acções gostaríamos de observar?
sábado, janeiro 08, 2011
The Road to serfdom - parte I
"The crucial point is that it is infinitely more difficult rationally to comprehend the necessity of submitting to forces whose operation we cannot follow in detail, than to do so out of the humble awe which religion, or even the respect for the doctrines of economics, did inspire. It may indeed be the case that infinitely more intelligence on the part of everybody would be needed than anybody now possesses, if we were even merely to maintain our present complex civilisation without anybody having to do things of which he does not comprehend the necessity. The refusal to yield to forces which we neither understand nor can recognise as the conscious decisions of an intelligent being is the product of an incomplete and therefore erroneous rationalism. .
It is incomplete because it fails to comprehend that the co-ordination of the multifarious individual efforts in a complex society must take account of facts no individual can completely survey. And it fails to see that, unless this complex society is to be destroyed, the only alternative to submission to the impersonal and seemingly irrational forces of the market is submission to an equally uncontrollable and therefore arbitrary power of other men. In his anxiety to escape the irksome restraints which he now feels, man does not realise that the new authoritarian restraints which will have to be deliberately imposed in their stead will be even more painful."
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Mais actual que nunca e a conjugar bem com a emergência e Seth Godin.
Continua.
It is incomplete because it fails to comprehend that the co-ordination of the multifarious individual efforts in a complex society must take account of facts no individual can completely survey. And it fails to see that, unless this complex society is to be destroyed, the only alternative to submission to the impersonal and seemingly irrational forces of the market is submission to an equally uncontrollable and therefore arbitrary power of other men. In his anxiety to escape the irksome restraints which he now feels, man does not realise that the new authoritarian restraints which will have to be deliberately imposed in their stead will be even more painful."
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Mais actual que nunca e a conjugar bem com a emergência e Seth Godin.
Continua.
Alimentar discussões sobre hipotéticos futuros
Talvez Martin Feldstein esteja a ser demasiado optimista "Harvard’s Feldstein Says U.S., China Trade Gap on Path to Resolution"
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No entanto, a valorização do yuan e o crescimento do mercado doméstico chinês são dois poderosos factores abióticos que estão a alterar a paisagem competitiva enrugada.
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Que estratégias podem emergir destas alterações?
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O que é que as associações industriais estão a fazer para gerar a discussão entre os seus associados? Não para darem origem a planos quinquenais, mas para gerarem carambolas nas mentes dos mais ambiciosos, dos mais apaixonados, dos mais temerários, para que nasçam dezenas, centenas de planos individuais, à medida de cada empresa, à medida da experiência, à medida do cadastro, à medida do CV de cada empresa/empresário... Minkowski em acção!
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Enquanto escrevo isto, o twitter avisou-me que Seth Godin publicou um novo postal... nem de propósito:
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"The sure-fire recipe for business success
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Wait, I was confused. There's a sure-fire recipe for delicious chocolate chip cookies. There is in fact a magic formula.
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For businesses, not so much. There isn't one secret, one process, one solution. Instead, there are a thousand or maybe a million.
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It's not a jigsaw puzzle, it's a strand of DNA, easily rearranged and sometimes it even works. For a while."
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No entanto, a valorização do yuan e o crescimento do mercado doméstico chinês são dois poderosos factores abióticos que estão a alterar a paisagem competitiva enrugada.
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Que estratégias podem emergir destas alterações?
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O que é que as associações industriais estão a fazer para gerar a discussão entre os seus associados? Não para darem origem a planos quinquenais, mas para gerarem carambolas nas mentes dos mais ambiciosos, dos mais apaixonados, dos mais temerários, para que nasçam dezenas, centenas de planos individuais, à medida de cada empresa, à medida da experiência, à medida do cadastro, à medida do CV de cada empresa/empresário... Minkowski em acção!
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Enquanto escrevo isto, o twitter avisou-me que Seth Godin publicou um novo postal... nem de propósito:
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"The sure-fire recipe for business success
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Wait, I was confused. There's a sure-fire recipe for delicious chocolate chip cookies. There is in fact a magic formula.
.
For businesses, not so much. There isn't one secret, one process, one solution. Instead, there are a thousand or maybe a million.
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It's not a jigsaw puzzle, it's a strand of DNA, easily rearranged and sometimes it even works. For a while."
UN-marketing (parte IV)
Why am I relating these ideas, theories and facts?
- "Companies Ignore Customer Feedback on Social Media" ("94% of companies are not using social media channels such as Facebook and Twitter to gather customer feedback despite the fact that consumers are increasingly engaging to discuss products using the platforms to discuss their experiences with products. The most common ways for companies to gather feedback continue to be email/online surveys (51%), formal phone surveys (28%), and informal phone calls (28%).")
- "Online is not a separate place" ("Communities are about belonging. The public access that the Internet now allows people to have is mistakenly believed to mean trying to get the broadest possible audience. But in effect people are trying to reach people like themselves, like-minded people, in order to belong to a community. There has been a tremendous increase in the amount of material that is available to the public, not really intended for the public, but instead for the emerging communities.
Many of our behaviours are held in place not by rational decisions or desires but by present or bygone constraints. Our cultures are shaped as much by these constraints as they are by capabilities and aspirations. Changes often take place very fast when the constraints are removed. The challenge is that misleading metaphors are often the biggest obstacles to moving forward after the technological constraints are gone.
Change occurs not so much as a result of new information leading to individual learning but when the patterns of connectedness between individuals change. Learning as a result of the print revolution was seen as an individual process. Learning as a result of the social media revolution is an active process of communication between people. Knowledge was earlier seen as being stored in content. Today knowledge is understood to be perpetually constructed in communication. Books could be transmitted from one person to another. Today knowledge is the process of relating. The technological constraints are gone; now is the time to get rid of the wrong, constraining metaphors.")
Perhaps the answer is also here:
Cucos em acção - first things first
"Alunos fartos de estudar à chuva boicotam aulas"
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"DREC gasta 138 mil euros a tapar o sol aos carros"
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"O dirigente do SPRC ressalva que "estas são as coisas que vêm à tona!" e lança uma questão: "Quanto mais disto haverá espalhado pelas várias capitanias do Ministério da Educação e de outros organismos do mesmo Governo que imporá tantos sacrifícios aos portugueses neste ano que agora se inicia?"."
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Num país em crise com um sector público que gasta mais de 1,6 milhões de euros em cabazes de Natal tudo é possível.
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"Ao JN, a presidente da AP/ESJF, Ana Costa, afirmou-se "chocada" com as prioridades e o "desprezo da DREC""
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Chocada!!!??? Chocado fico eu quando as pessoas se indignam com estas coisas. Estas coisas não são pessoais, não acontecem porque os decisores da DREC são más pessoas, estas coisas são uma consequência directa do esquema das coisas num mundo socialista.... que vontade de reler "The Road to Serfdom"...
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"DREC gasta 138 mil euros a tapar o sol aos carros"
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"O dirigente do SPRC ressalva que "estas são as coisas que vêm à tona!" e lança uma questão: "Quanto mais disto haverá espalhado pelas várias capitanias do Ministério da Educação e de outros organismos do mesmo Governo que imporá tantos sacrifícios aos portugueses neste ano que agora se inicia?"."
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Num país em crise com um sector público que gasta mais de 1,6 milhões de euros em cabazes de Natal tudo é possível.
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"Ao JN, a presidente da AP/ESJF, Ana Costa, afirmou-se "chocada" com as prioridades e o "desprezo da DREC""
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Chocada!!!??? Chocado fico eu quando as pessoas se indignam com estas coisas. Estas coisas não são pessoais, não acontecem porque os decisores da DREC são más pessoas, estas coisas são uma consequência directa do esquema das coisas num mundo socialista.... que vontade de reler "The Road to Serfdom"...
Uma investigação que precisava de ser feita - uma emergência que precisava de ser reconhecida
Era bom que os jornais não se ficassem só por isto "Preço da "t-shirt" portuguesa dispara 42% nas exportações".
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Aquela frase "os industriais portugueses dizem que se está a "vender menos e a ganhar mais"" devia ser investigada.
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Era interessante que 2/3 jornalistas bons investigassem 6/7 casos concretos de empresas bem sucedidas. Os relatos dessas histórias, com nomes, com moradas, com casos concretos, deviam ser divulgados por todas as empresas do sector para perceberem que além do choradinho habitual da associação, há alternativas, há formas de fugir do campeonato do preço/custo para entrar no campeonato do valor.
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Recordando esse velhinho artigo de Mintzberg "Crafting Strategy" pode acontecer que algumas das empresas que estão a ter bons resultados estejam a tirar partido de uma conjugação não deliberada que surtiu efeito, uma estratégia emergente. Também para elas seria útil reflectir e racionalizar sobre o que está a acontecer, para poderem ... fazer batota. Em vez de apenas tirar partido dos factores críticos de sucesso já existentes, passar inflacionar essa vantagem, trabalhá-la ainda mais para a aprofundar.
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Talvez fosse interessante fazer a radiografia de Terry Hill, até que ponto a estratégia e a organização das operações formam uma estrutura sinérgica que se auto-reforça? Ou será que há ainda várias hipóteses de melhoria?
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Ainda, talvez fosse interessante mergulhar e estudar as diferenças entre o têxtil que está a dar a volta e o têxtil que ainda está a fechar como relatado aqui, o que é que o sector pode aprender?
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"Emergence is an important topic: it deals with behaviors and or qualities that arise without warning, without apparent central control and are properties of the entire system and environment and not of individual components. The wetness of water can be considered an emergent property or the flocking behavior of a large group of birds. Both have qualities and properties that cannot be found in individual agents.
The idea of emergence includes the idea of emergent design through adaptation to dynamic conditions. Consider the case of DNA versus intelligent design. Evolution by adaptive DNA is without apparent central control and develops without warning and usually in unpredictable ways with unforeseeable magnitudes of outcomes; intelligent design takes the opposite position in every way: central control according to a pre-established plan that goes according to design with foreseeable and specified outcomes.
Johnson offers the following components and behaviors that seem to apply to most complex systems and situations.
Components:
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Aquela frase "os industriais portugueses dizem que se está a "vender menos e a ganhar mais"" devia ser investigada.
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Era interessante que 2/3 jornalistas bons investigassem 6/7 casos concretos de empresas bem sucedidas. Os relatos dessas histórias, com nomes, com moradas, com casos concretos, deviam ser divulgados por todas as empresas do sector para perceberem que além do choradinho habitual da associação, há alternativas, há formas de fugir do campeonato do preço/custo para entrar no campeonato do valor.
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Recordando esse velhinho artigo de Mintzberg "Crafting Strategy" pode acontecer que algumas das empresas que estão a ter bons resultados estejam a tirar partido de uma conjugação não deliberada que surtiu efeito, uma estratégia emergente. Também para elas seria útil reflectir e racionalizar sobre o que está a acontecer, para poderem ... fazer batota. Em vez de apenas tirar partido dos factores críticos de sucesso já existentes, passar inflacionar essa vantagem, trabalhá-la ainda mais para a aprofundar.
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Talvez fosse interessante fazer a radiografia de Terry Hill, até que ponto a estratégia e a organização das operações formam uma estrutura sinérgica que se auto-reforça? Ou será que há ainda várias hipóteses de melhoria?
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Ainda, talvez fosse interessante mergulhar e estudar as diferenças entre o têxtil que está a dar a volta e o têxtil que ainda está a fechar como relatado aqui, o que é que o sector pode aprender?
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"Emergence is an important topic: it deals with behaviors and or qualities that arise without warning, without apparent central control and are properties of the entire system and environment and not of individual components. The wetness of water can be considered an emergent property or the flocking behavior of a large group of birds. Both have qualities and properties that cannot be found in individual agents.
The idea of emergence includes the idea of emergent design through adaptation to dynamic conditions. Consider the case of DNA versus intelligent design. Evolution by adaptive DNA is without apparent central control and develops without warning and usually in unpredictable ways with unforeseeable magnitudes of outcomes; intelligent design takes the opposite position in every way: central control according to a pre-established plan that goes according to design with foreseeable and specified outcomes.
Johnson offers the following components and behaviors that seem to apply to most complex systems and situations.
Components:
- The system contains a collection of many interacting objects.
- The behavior of agents/objects is affected by memory or feedback.
- Objects/agents can adapt their strategies based on memory or feedback.
- Exists in an open system, affected by the environment.
- The system appears to be alive.
- Filled with emergent phenomenon that are surprising and can be extreme.
- Absence of an invisible hand or central controller.
- There is a mix of orderly and disorderly behavior."
Trecho retirado de "An executive summary of complexity theory"
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"With Emergence, such involved behaviours are not specified directly by a set of rules, they arise as a dynamic result of the rest of the system. Just as simple rules can lead to complex behavior, complex rules (just look at tax law) can lead to stupid behavior. We love detail. And attention to detail can lead to success, but it can equally lead to morale-killing stagnation, meetings, and compromise. You can't plan, forecast, or predict everything, but you can cultivate an environment that facilitates the kind of emergent behaviour from which you can benefit: "Design broadly. Iterate locally. Finalize specifically.""
Trecho retirado de "Emergence"
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"With Emergence, such involved behaviours are not specified directly by a set of rules, they arise as a dynamic result of the rest of the system. Just as simple rules can lead to complex behavior, complex rules (just look at tax law) can lead to stupid behavior. We love detail. And attention to detail can lead to success, but it can equally lead to morale-killing stagnation, meetings, and compromise. You can't plan, forecast, or predict everything, but you can cultivate an environment that facilitates the kind of emergent behaviour from which you can benefit: "Design broadly. Iterate locally. Finalize specifically.""
Trecho retirado de "Emergence"
sexta-feira, janeiro 07, 2011
Já não há respeito
"A aprovação do Decreto-Lei que estabelece as normas de execução é “uma decisão de grande importância” e “é um sinal que o Governo dá no sentido de reiterar a sua determinação de execução orçamental”" (6 de Janeiro 2011) trecho retirado daqui.
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"O risco de default dos dois países da zona euro está em novos máximos. Os juros das Obrigações do Tesouro portuguesas a 10 anos estão nos 7,12%, novo máximo desde a adesão ao euro" (7 de Janeiro de 2011) trecho retirado daqui.
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Este grito de Camilo Lourenço "Chega de medidas. Façam…!" faz-me lembrar este trecho do livro Rework de Jason Fried e David Hansson.
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"you need people who are going to do work, not delegate work. Everyone's got to be producing. No one can be above the work.
That means you need to avoid hiring delegators, those people who love telling others what to do. Delegators are dead weight for a small team. They clog the pipes for others by coming up with busywork. And when they run out of work to assign, they make up more--regardless of whether it needs to be done."
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"O risco de default dos dois países da zona euro está em novos máximos. Os juros das Obrigações do Tesouro portuguesas a 10 anos estão nos 7,12%, novo máximo desde a adesão ao euro" (7 de Janeiro de 2011) trecho retirado daqui.
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Este grito de Camilo Lourenço "Chega de medidas. Façam…!" faz-me lembrar este trecho do livro Rework de Jason Fried e David Hansson.
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"you need people who are going to do work, not delegate work. Everyone's got to be producing. No one can be above the work.
That means you need to avoid hiring delegators, those people who love telling others what to do. Delegators are dead weight for a small team. They clog the pipes for others by coming up with busywork. And when they run out of work to assign, they make up more--regardless of whether it needs to be done."
Escolher - fazer opções!!!
É fundamental fazer escolhas!
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É fundamental decidir quem são os clientes-alvo. Não se pode servir bem toda a gente!!!
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Quem quer servir toda a gente tem de fazer muitos compromissos, tem de optar pelo meio-termo, tem de "perder a alma"
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"Draw a line in the sand
As you get going, keep in mind why you're doing what you're doing. Great businesses have a point of view, not just a product or service. You have to believe in something. You need to have a backbone. You need to know what you're willing to fight for. And then you need to show the world.
A strong stand is how you attract superfans. They point to you and defend you. And they spread the word further, wider, and more passionately than any advertising could.
Strong opinions aren't free. You'll turn some people off. They'll accuse you of being arrogant and aloof. That's life. For everyone who loves you, there will be others who hate you. If no one's upset by what you're saying, you're probably not pushing hard enough. (And you're probably boring, too.)
When you don't know what you believe, everything becomes an argument. Everything is debatable. But when you stand for something, decisions are obvious."
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Trecho retirado de "Rework" de Jason Fried e David Hansson.
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É fundamental decidir quem são os clientes-alvo. Não se pode servir bem toda a gente!!!
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Quem quer servir toda a gente tem de fazer muitos compromissos, tem de optar pelo meio-termo, tem de "perder a alma"
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"Draw a line in the sand
As you get going, keep in mind why you're doing what you're doing. Great businesses have a point of view, not just a product or service. You have to believe in something. You need to have a backbone. You need to know what you're willing to fight for. And then you need to show the world.
A strong stand is how you attract superfans. They point to you and defend you. And they spread the word further, wider, and more passionately than any advertising could.
Strong opinions aren't free. You'll turn some people off. They'll accuse you of being arrogant and aloof. That's life. For everyone who loves you, there will be others who hate you. If no one's upset by what you're saying, you're probably not pushing hard enough. (And you're probably boring, too.)
When you don't know what you believe, everything becomes an argument. Everything is debatable. But when you stand for something, decisions are obvious."
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Trecho retirado de "Rework" de Jason Fried e David Hansson.
O jogo do gato e do rato (parte VIII)
Este artigo do Jornal de Notícias é um bom exemplo da aplicação do jogo do rato:
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"Salário mínimo sobe e país perde competitividade"
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Escrevi bom exemplo... talvez devesse escrever mau exemplo, pois afunila, pois algema, pois limita o problema a só uma das parcelas, a dos custos.
E não é nessa que nos devemos concentrar... cuidado com o retorno da atenção!!!
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Além disso parece que o autor do artigo confunde salários com custos unitários do trabalho:
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"Salário mínimo sobe e país perde competitividade"
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Escrevi bom exemplo... talvez devesse escrever mau exemplo, pois afunila, pois algema, pois limita o problema a só uma das parcelas, a dos custos.
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Além disso parece que o autor do artigo confunde salários com custos unitários do trabalho:
- O jogo do gato e do rato (parte I)
- O jogo do gato e do rato (parte V)
- O jogo do gato e do rato (parte IV)
Dúvida, como é que este estudo explica o sucesso do calçado?
Dúvida, como é que este estudo explica o regresso dos têxteis?
Sem uma relação amorosa com os clientes-alvo... nada!
"As I sat there in the ginormous company’s fancy conference room, it occurred to me that everything they said about their target market was a ploy to get the customer to take an action—to consume, to buy, to transfer money into said ginormous company’s increasingly ginormous (but maybe not enough) coffers. They expressed no genuine love for the customer. He was a target. She was a sitting duck. Customers apparently had no inherent value beyond what they were able to add to the ginormous company’s bottom line and no purpose apart from keeping everyone in that room employed. The customer would have been completely irrelevant, except that the ad campaigns being created needed an audience and the product being manufactured needed someone to buy it—and then buy some more. But why?"
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Trecho retirado de "Zilch: The Power of Zero in Business" de Nancy Lublin"
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Trecho retirado de "Zilch: The Power of Zero in Business" de Nancy Lublin"
Diferenças e heterogeneidade não rimam com média
Uma das lições que aprendi nos meus primeiros anos de trabalho foi: desconfiar sempre de resultados que apenas retratam a média. A dispersão é muito, muito, muito importante.
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Assim, pensando bem, é absurdo pensar que uma média caracterize o desempenho de um sector de actividade povoado por empresas diferentes, com histórias diferentes, com pessoas diferentes.
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Dois exemplos:
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Assim, pensando bem, é absurdo pensar que uma média caracterize o desempenho de um sector de actividade povoado por empresas diferentes, com histórias diferentes, com pessoas diferentes.
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Dois exemplos:
- Este artigo "The granularity of growth" de Mehrdad Baghai, Sven Smit e Patrick Viguerie; e
- Este outro artigo "AstraZeneca's Risky Bet on Drug Discovery" na revista Bloomberg Businessweek
Diferentes empresas, no mesmo sector de actividade, fazem diferentes opções, têm diferentes capacidades e obtêm diferentes resultados...
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Esta figura é elucidativa:
É tão básico... tão errado, o considerar-se a média como uma boa representação de um sector heterogéneo.
quinta-feira, janeiro 06, 2011
Somos todos alemães (parte IX)
Já conhecem a minha opinião, basta pesquisar “Somos todos alemães” neste blogue.
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Este artigo “You Don’t Have to be German to be a “Hidden Champion”” de Hermann Simon e publicado em 1996 na revista Business Strategy Review (Vol 7, # 2) lista algumas lições que todas as PMEs deviam considerer e reflector sobre elas.
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“hidden champions are more alike from country to country than they are in relation to large companies within their own countries.” (Moi ici: Também acredito nisto, as empresas grandes bem geridas, e com uma proposta de valor adequada às suas vantagens competitivas, concentram-se em clientes-alvo diferentes dos escolhidos pelas PMEs exportadoras com propostas de valores adequadas às suas vantagens competitivas.)
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“the hidden champions present some significant general lessons. Their basic ingredient is a large degree of common sense: giving value to customers, reliability, building long-term relationships, delivering good quality and service.”
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“An implicit lesson reposes in the focus of the hidden champions, which posits that no one can be a champion in many trades. Those who are focused beat those who spread themselves thin. This message is particularly relevant for small companies with limited resources. But it applies equally to large companies, which frequently deceive themselves in thinking they can develop many different competencies and handle many different businesses – a dangerous illusion. The single-minded specialist usually bears the generalist.”
…
Vamos às lições! A primeira sistematização diz respeito às “Both-and Lessons”. As alternativas não são exclusivas antes complementam-se:
Estas alternativas complementares traduzem-se em nove lições específicas:
“1. Set clear and ambitious goals. Ideally a company should strive to be the best and to become the leader in its market (Moi ici: Não está a falar de ser gigante, não está a falar em ser líder em vendas, está a falar em ser a melhor não a maior).
2. Define a market narrowly and in so doing include both customer needs and technology. Don’t accept given market definitions but consider the market definition itself part of strategy. Stay focused and concentrated. Avoid distractions. (Moi ici: Este é, talvez, o desafio mais difícil… se voltarmos ao final da série sobre a ideia de mosaico, facilmente veremos que concentração e especialização, implicam um trade-off aterrador para muitos, um autêntico pacto faustiano, aumentar a rentabilidade em troca da redução dos graus de liberdade para o futuro… e se factores abióticos alteram a apaisagem competitiva enrugada? Há o risco da empresa perder o pé e cair num vale mortífero)
3. Combine a narrow market focus with a global orientation involving worldwide sales and marketing. Deal as directly as possible with customers around the globe. (Moi ici: Já escrevi sobre esta necessidade. Muitas PMEs por que lhes falta a orientação global, acabam por não aprofundar o foco num certo tipo de clientes-alvo).
4. Be close to customers in both performance and interaction. Make sure that all functions have direct customer contacts. Adopt a value-driven strategy. Pay close attention to the most demanding customers. (Moi ici: Para quem pensa no longo prazo, cuidado com as vendas para os países com clientes pouco exigentes… podem não ser sustentáveis, basta que um concorrente mais habilitado também descubra o mercado, e atrasam a corrida para ser a melhor à custa da corrida para ser a maior. Por isso, em tempos escrevi sobre Angola).
5. Strive for continuous innovation in both product and process. Innovation should be both technology and customer-driven. Pay equal attention to internal resources and competencies and external opportunities.” (Moi ici: Nunca parar, nunca ficar descansado, procurar sempre melhorar e aperfeiçoar).
6. Create clear-cut competitive advantages in both product and service. Defend the company’s competitive position ferociously. (Moi ici: Nunca parar, nunca ficar descansado, procurar sempre melhorar e aperfeiçoar).
7. Rely on your own strengths. Keep core competencies in the company, but outsource noncore activities. Consider co-operation a last resort rather a first choice. (Moi ici: Não é correr para os braços do papá-Estado, esse perigoso pedófilo, à menor dificuldade).
8. Try always to have more work than heads. Select employees rigorously in the first phase, then retain them for the long-term. Communicate directly to motivate people and use employee creativity to its full potential. (Moi ici: As pessoas fazem a diferença, se enquadradas por uma estratégia adequada às vantagens competitivas de cada empresa).
9. Practice leadership that is both authoritarian in the fundamentals and participative in the details. Pay utmost attention to the selection of leaders, observing their unity of person and purpose, energy and perseverance, and the ability to inspire others (Moi ici: A tarefa que nenhum líder deve delegar: escolher ele próprio a sua equipa).”
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Continua
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Continua
Acerca do empreendedorismo
"Creating the Next Silicon Valley – The Chilean Experiment" um postal com ideias interessantes para quem quer promover o empreendedorismo.
Macedónia
- "What is economics good for?" Cuidado com a macroeconomia, essa ciência vodu.
- "Economist coloca Portugal entre os países que menos crescem em 2011" São as dores de parto de uma nova economia
- "Strategy's Golden Rule" Ou seja, ""What your fiercest rival does badly, do incredibly well.""
- "Economist coloca Portugal entre os países que menos crescem em 2011"
- "Empresas de vestuário e confecção dizem que aumento do salário mínimo põe em causa empregos" Isto de considerar um sector como uma coisa homogénea... é mais ciência económica vodu... passo seguinte, subsídios aprovados pela Assembleia para apoiar as empresas em dificuldades... go figure. (ADENDA das 7h26: Juro que quando escrevi a frase anterior ainda não tinha lido isto "Comércio quer apoio para quem suba já SMN para 500 euros")
- "Dívidas e insolvências contaminam construtoras" Um sector que vai ter de emagrecer, tal como aconteceu com a agricultura após a adesão à então CEE. Interessante recordar a génese(?) desta doença aqui ... quem haveria de dizer que eu citaria Krugman em minha defesa!!!!!
- "A resposta está entre nós" "A gestão da Jerónimo é uma lição para Portugal. Nunca se refastela no seu sucesso, quer sempre chegar mais longe, é humilde, observa, aprende, é sagaz. Mesmo hoje, na Polónia, onde permanece o risco de um regresso em força da concorrência, para esmagar preços. O que faz a Jerónimo? Está a ocupar o território, crescendo aceleradamente para três mil lojas, antes que os grandes concorrentes "redescubram" a Polónia. É também no estrangeiro que está a solução para a economia, mas a partir de Portugal. Não é preciso contratar gurus nem adular cangurus, às vezes basta olhar à volta. Ou abrir os jornais (Moi ici: Infelizmente com uma baixa frequência). Portugueses."
- Depois do choque tecnológico, depois do choque do betão, esmagado pelas evidências, obrigado a ajoelhar e a reconhecer a realidade "Foi preciso "vir alguém de fora" para dar importância aos sectores tradicionais" e "Sócrates visita fábrica Zarco que exporta 99% da produção"
- "Does This Chart Mean The Next Financial Crisis Will Be In China?" Já aqui escrevi sobre esta correlação/causalidade entre arranha-céus e bolhas imobiliárias.
quarta-feira, janeiro 05, 2011
IMHO, a chave de interpretação
Este artigo "Fecho de têxteis põe centenas de famílias à beira do abismo" e este postal de ontem "Exemplo da heterogeneidade dentro de um sector económico" fazem-me recordar este outro de Agosto passado "Exemplo da diversidade intra-sectorial".
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Como conciliar as notícias sobre o fecho das empresas do sector têxtil com as notícias sobre o sucesso do sector têxtil?
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Creio que a chave de interpretação, excluindo as situações de ilegalidade que julgo serem uma minoria, passa por um velho conhecido deste blogue, este artigo "Creative Destruction in Finnish Manufacturing" :
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"It is widely believed that restructuring has boosted productivity by displacing low-skilled workers and creating jobs for the high skilled.
This hypothesis can be tested by taking into account the quality of labour input in productivity decompositions. This can be done by using so-called “linked employer-employee” data.
These data allow labour input to be measured in terms of “efficiency units”. It turns out that the basic findings and conclusions remain unaltered after the inclusion of the labour quality aspect in the productivity computations.
In essence, creative destruction means that low productivity plants are displaced by high productivity plants."
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Não são as pessoas que competem, são as empresas que competem entre si.
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Como conciliar as notícias sobre o fecho das empresas do sector têxtil com as notícias sobre o sucesso do sector têxtil?
.
Creio que a chave de interpretação, excluindo as situações de ilegalidade que julgo serem uma minoria, passa por um velho conhecido deste blogue, este artigo "Creative Destruction in Finnish Manufacturing" :
.
"It is widely believed that restructuring has boosted productivity by displacing low-skilled workers and creating jobs for the high skilled.
This hypothesis can be tested by taking into account the quality of labour input in productivity decompositions. This can be done by using so-called “linked employer-employee” data.
These data allow labour input to be measured in terms of “efficiency units”. It turns out that the basic findings and conclusions remain unaltered after the inclusion of the labour quality aspect in the productivity computations.
In essence, creative destruction means that low productivity plants are displaced by high productivity plants."
.
Não são as pessoas que competem, são as empresas que competem entre si.
Está escrito nas estrelas
Defendemos há muito neste blogue que vamos a caminho de Mongo (foi em Novembro de 2007 que usei essa metáfora pela primeira vez) , que já passamos o pico da globalização massificadora e homogeneizadora e que, por isso, o futuro será povoado por muitas pequenas empresas, rápidas, flexíveis, diferentes e concentradas em servir nichos.
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Pois bem, neste documento "40 FOR THE NEXT 40 - A sampling of the drivers of change that will shape our world between now and 2050)" assinado pelos Toffler.
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"MASS PRODUCTION WILL INCREASINGLY BE REPLACED WITH ON-DEMAND, CUSTOM MANUFACTURING OF COMPLEX PRODUCTS AND SERVICES
"CONSUMERS WILL DRIVE CHOICE
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Pois bem, neste documento "40 FOR THE NEXT 40 - A sampling of the drivers of change that will shape our world between now and 2050)" assinado pelos Toffler.
.
"MASS PRODUCTION WILL INCREASINGLY BE REPLACED WITH ON-DEMAND, CUSTOM MANUFACTURING OF COMPLEX PRODUCTS AND SERVICES
- Small, agile companies will continue to bring personal attention to customers, allowing them to compete effectively with large manufacturers.
- Compact fabricators and raw material supplies will replace stockpiling repair parts for maintenance."
"CONSUMERS WILL DRIVE CHOICE
- Communication technologies and social networks will become increasingly influential, deciding factors in product and service offerings.
- Consumers or customers will be the most important source of innovation within organizations. The main driving force for “prosumption” – the unpaid output that we all produce every day – will be the technology-enhanced interaction between employees, suppliers, partners and customers."
Macedónia
- "INE: "Nada fazia prever, em 2007 ou 2008, o que veio a acontecer ao desemprego"" A propósito de "o INE não pode alinhar a produção estatística pelas oscilações conjunturais da economia"", apetece perguntar "Qual a razão de ser do INE? Para que é que ele existe? Para produzir estatística ou para ajudar a tomar decisões?"
- "A moda dos mercados prioritários" faz recordar a frase de Hamel e Valikangas "on average, markets
are better than hierarchies at getting the right resources behind the right opportunities at the right time. Unlike hierarchies, markets are apolitical and unsentimental; they don’t care whose ox gets gored. The average company, though, operates more like a socialist state than an unfettered market. A hierarchy
may be an effective mechanism for applying resources, but it is an imperfect device for allocating
resources." - "Nas Caldas da Rainha há uma fábrica onde o Natal já passou e agora é Páscoa" "Com uma facturação actual de 13 milhões de euros, a Promol exporta 98 por cento da sua produção, representando a Alemanha uma quota de 70 por cento e a Escandinávia 20 por cento. A fábrica emprega cerca de 150 pessoas, um número que sobe para 250 a 300 trabalhadores nos picos de produção, que costumam ocorrer entre Julho e Outubro, quando se preparam para as encomendas de Natal." (Moi ici: Ainda me lembro da surpresa que senti quando Daniel Pink em "A Whole New Mind" me revelou que o negócio das velas nos Estados Unidos valia 2,4 mil milhões de dólares por ano)
- "BitTorrent Has More Users Than Netflix and Hulu Combined--and Doubled" Afinal não é coisa de portugueses e latinos.
- "When Do You Make a Change?"
- "Economia alemã continuará a crescer, mas a ritmo mais lento"
- "10 Business Models That Rocked 2010"
- "How Videogames Are Changing the Economy"
- "Empresas iniciam ano sem incentivos à contratação" I see socialists everywhere !!!
- "Why the Mind Sees the Future in the Past Tense" "As adults, we inhabit longer futures than children, and longer pasts, too." (Moi ici: Duvido, basta recordar "E que tal ter um governo que governasse como se o futuro contasse" ou "Jogadores de bilhar amador há-os em todo o lado (parte II)")
- "When Innovation, Too, Is Made in China"
- E falando acerca da bolsa como um local de investimento e não como um casino, como defendem os caviares "Guest Post: Michael Hudson: Average Stock Held for 22 Seconds and Average Foreign Currency Position Held for 30 Seconds" Oppssssss!
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