Estratégia em Mongo

Há dias Roger Martin publicou mais um texto, "Strategy on Rugged Landscapes". Há anos que aprecio o uso da metáfora das paisagens enrugadas para ilustrar o desafio da estratégia em Mongo versus aquele que era o desafio no século XX.

No texto, a Tanzânia (um planicie com um único pico, o Kilimanjaro) representa o século XX. Há uma estratégia simples. Já o Tibete (um país com muitos picos) representa Mongo. Não há uma estratégia única e fórmula-la não é fácil. 

"That is the difference between a smooth and a rugged landscape. In a smooth landscape, there is a singular peak and a simple rule for getting there. The more rugged, the more peaks - and no simple rule.

The central determinant of the ruggedness of a landscape is interdependence of variables in the system that produces the landscape. A landscape gets complex very quickly as variables interact. A landscape can have one million possible peaks (i.e. distinct outcomes) when there are only twenty interdependent variables. Such highly interdependent landscapes are what complexity theorists and evolutionary biologists call complex adaptive systems"

"There is even a more elusive form of problem — an undecidable one. These are problems that algorithms can never solve because they feature characteristics such as subjective variables, circumstances that vary faster than any algorithm can run, and/or the necessary data is simply unavailable.

Even though theorists place intractable and undecidable in different categories, I am simplifying them by referring to both as intractable, by which I mean that humans do not have access to an algorithmic approach — a formula — for reaching a solution in which they can be confident is optimal in the circumstance.

The stakes can be very high for humans with respect to such problems, as emphasized by evolutionary biologists who study landscapes and the fitness of species for the nature of the landscape on which they exist. To survive, a species needs to find the proverbial high ground of a safe peak on the ‘fitness landscape.’ It doesn’t have to be the tallest peak — i.e. a set of characteristics and behaviors that makes the species perfect for the landscape. But the fitness has to be pretty strong."

Quais as implicações para a formulação de estratégias para as empresas?

"The context for strategy is a rugged landscape. There are clearly many interdependent variables in strategy. 

...

The fundamental strategy question is what is the strongest competitive position — metaphorically, the tallest peak — you can occupy? As with most highly rugged landscapes, that is an intractable question — if you insist on an algorithmic solution (that is, you can reason algorithmically to a correct and verifiable solution). Managers in modern business are overwhelmingly from the educational fields of business, engineering and/or economics, and there they are taught that to be a noble, effective manager, you must calculate your way to any decision you make. Anything else is unbecoming.

This puts modern managers in a bind with respect to strategy. They have been taught a methodology — even a way of being — that is only good for smooth terrains, but they need to make the most important decisions for their companies on rugged terrains. The bind is pretty much as straightforward as that.

...

The key to avoiding these unproductive modes is to focus on human tractability in strategy. That is, one must take the algorithmically intractable task of setting strategy on a rugged landscape and make the task tractable for human managers."

Martin identifica três características heurísticas principais para tornar a estratégia mais tratável:

• Imagine um futuro desejado feliz: Prever um resultado positivo ajuda a motivar e orientar as equipas estratégicas, concentrando-se num futuro desejável, em vez de ficarem sobrecarregadas pela complexidade dos desafios actuais. Ajuda a manter o moral e a clarificar os objectivos.
• Manter uma competição de possibilidades: Em vez de procurar uma única “melhor” estratégia, Martin sugere avaliar múltiplas estratégias “plausivelmente elevadas” numa comparação competitiva. Esta abordagem reduz a pressão para encontrar a solução singularmente perfeita e incentiva a geração de opções diversas e criativas. Como aprendi aqui, julgo que o essencial é ter um mapa inicial no qual se acredita e, depois, meter os pés ao caminho e estar atento ao contexto e aos seus sinais para ir afinando a caminhada. O que liga perfeitamente com a seguinte:
• Concentre-se na lógica das possibilidades, não nos dados: como não existem dados sobre o futuro, confiar fortemente nos dados pode enganar os estrategas em paisagens enrugadas. Em vez disso, concentrar-se na lógica subjacente de cada estratégia (por exemplo, considerar o que precisaria de ser verdade para uma estratégia ter sucesso) permite uma tomada de decisão mais clara e adaptável.

Esta abordagem centrada no ser humano e orientada pela heurística não só aborda os desafios únicos da estratégia complexa, como também garante que os estrategas mantêm-se relevantes e insubstituíveis numa era cada vez mais dominada pela inteligência artificial.

Agora surge-me a ligação a este postal bem recente, "Quando os clientes mudam".

• Onde alocar recursos escassos? Como as PME têm recursos limitados, necessitam de identificar e focar-se nos principais pontos fortes e nas áreas onde se podem diferenciar de forma realista dos concorrentes.
• Dado o ritmo acelerado das mudanças em paisagens enrugadas, as PME devem incluir flexibilidade nas suas estratégias. Rever e ajustar regularmente a abordagem estratégica permite-lhes responder mais rapidamente do que os concorrentes de maior dimensão, que podem demorar mais tempo a dinamizar.
• As PME podem compensar a sua menor escala construindo parcerias com outras empresas, organizações locais ou grupos industriais. Isto ajuda as PME a obter acesso a recursos, conhecimentos e oportunidades de mercado que talvez não tivessem sozinhas.

Para as PME, o sucesso em paisagens enrugadas (aka Mongo) depende muitas vezes da capacidade de combinar a heurística de Martin com uma mentalidade prática e ágil que enfatiza a experimentação, a flexibilidade e a interacção próxima com o cliente. Esta abordagem diferenciada e adaptativa pode permitir às PME competir de forma eficaz sem exigir um planeamento estratégico de grande escala e com utilização intensiva de recursos.

O mundo é um lugar heterogéneo (Mongo)

Uma das citações na coluna das mesmas é:

"When something is commoditized, an adjacent market becomes valuable"

 Algo que escrevi aqui no blogue pela primeira vez em 2013.

Penso:

• nas televisões a cores que não mataram as televisões a preto e branco;
• nos discos de vinil;
• nas cassestes audio;
• nos filmes a preto e branco;
• nos catálogos em papel;
• nos jogos de tabuleiro;
• nas livrarias independentes.

Agora descubro, "When firms may benefit from sticking with an old technology":

"In some markets, the rise of a discontinuous technology, besides posing a substitute threat to the old technology, further exposes niche segments where customers continue to favor the old technology. This paper predicts that within such a market, as competitors increasingly adopt the new technology for varied motives, firms sticking with the old technology may see their performance declining before rebounding and potentially reaching new heights.

...

this paper further emphasizes the importance of attending to the inherent heterogeneity of a demand context in analyzing the dynamics of technological change and its performance implications at both the market and firm levels. Such demand heterogeneity, due to varied sources, may preserve niche opportunities in a market for an old technology, preventing it from complete displacement by the new technology. This subsequently makes it possible for firms sticking with the old technology to thrive for an unexpectedly long period despite the rise of a new technology with superior functionality."

O mundo é como o planeta Mongo, uma paisagem muito enrugada.  

Num cenário polarizado ...

Há muitos anos que aqui no blogue, praticamente desde a primeira hora, escrevo sobre a importância de seleccionar os clientes-alvo e trabalhar para eles. Por exemplo, em 2006 escrevia sobre o perigo de ser uma Arca de Noé:

• Deixar de ser uma Arca de Noé
• Porque não podemos ser uma Arca de Noé!

A reforçar esta mensagem de focalização nos clientes-alvo, tenho desenvolvido aqui também a metáfora de Mongo, um mundo pleno de variedade e de tribos numa paisagem enrugada:

• 1 Origem de uma metáfora
• Criatividade e Mongo
• Covid, empresas, estratégias e paisagens enrugadas

Às vezes criticam-me porque supostamente no mundo actual as empresas tanto podem servir em simultâneo gregos como troianos. No entanto, continuo na minha, ainda na semana passada li, "Why Mushroom Leather (and Other New Materials) Are Struggling to Scale":

"Compare the number of venture capital firms funding software to the number of venture firms specialising in material innovation or fashion. There are far fewer.

The reasons for the chasm are structural. Once a software solution is invented, the marginal cost to distribute the second, third and one millionth sale are close to zero. By contrast, once a new material is invented, the marginal costs for subsequent units are nearly the same. It is only with learning and scale that costs begin to decrease.

At the same time, building the capacity to produce new materials often requires considerable capital expenditure to build out infrastructure."

Entretanto, ontem li "The Myth of the Mainstream":

"Chasing the mass market is a losing proposition for marketers in a polarized culture. Allying with the subculture that loves you is the best way to drive brand success.

...

For years, McDonald's seemed to embody everything that was wrong with the American diet. The brand had become a symbol of food choices that were driving escalating rates of obesity and hypertension.

The company spent more than a decade trying to fight this perception among American consumers by targeting them with messaging about its updated menu, which offered healthier alternatives more in line with contemporary diet trends - but to no avail. Year over year, McDonald's sales declined, and its brand perception continued to spiral downward.

...

Finally, the company decided to go on the offensive. Instead of combating the opposition's hate and attempting to win over those in the middle, McDonald's decided to focus on its fans - the people who self-identify as McDonald's devotees despite the vitriol directed at the brand. 

...

In doing so, it tapped into what these devotees love about McDonald's and not only activated their collective consumption but also inspired them to spread the word on behalf of the brand. The result of this strategy was a 10.4% increase in global revenue for McDonald's from 2018 to 2021 and the return of dormant customers: more than a quarter of those who came in to buy the Travis Scott meal, for example, hadn't visited the chain in over a year. Seemingly overnight, McDonald's went from being a cautionary tale to the darling of brand marketing and a case study for advertising effectiveness.

If you want to get people to move, you must choose a side. The notion that you can win by playing to the middle is a misleading myth.

What's going on here? Conventional wisdom would tell us that in a world of increasingly polarized opinions, our best bet is to appease the middle, if only because that's where the majority of the market is. That also seems like a safe bet to many companies, as a middle-of-the-road position is less likely to alienate potential customers.

...

The middle doesn't adopt new products with any urgency. They are not the first to respond to marketing communications, nor are they likely to weigh in on a debate between advocates and detractors. They mitigate their own risk of moving out of step with what might be considered generally acceptable by stepping back and observing other people's responses first.

The red herring is that we perceive this indifference as an opportunity to persuade them to one side or the other. But the truth is, they are not typically convinced by any marketing communications. Instead, they, too, take cues from other people - sometimes those who are for you, and at other times those who are against you.

Our chances of successfully influencing behavior increases when we choose to address the people who are most likely to take action.

With this in mind, it becomes abundantly clear that in a polarized scenario, the chances of marketers getting people to move are far greater when we activate the collective of the willing as opposed to trying to convince detractors or even persuade the indifferent."

Sobre a polarização do mercado, recordo Polarização do mercado ou como David e Golias podem co-existir. 

Mais uma vez, biologia e economia

"Interestingly, recent research in evolutionary biology has direct relevance for understanding how some organizations survive over time and others fail. [Moi ici: O nosso velho "a economia é a continuação da biologia"] At its heart, evolution refers to change or transformation over time. Natural selection refers to the process where, over time, favorable traits (traits useful for survival) become more common and unfavorable traits become less prevalent. In commenting on this, David Sloan Wilson, an evolutionary biologist, noted that "natural selection is based on the relationship between an organism and its environment, regardless of its taxonomic identity."  Thus, it can readily apply to organizations as well as birds, insects, slime mold, and humans.

The three major underpinnings of evolutionary theory are variation (organisms or organizations differ on traits), selection (these differences sometimes make a difference in the organisms ability to survive), and retention (these useful characteristics can be passed from one generation to another). As environments change over time, the variation in traits can make organisms more or less fit, such that the former are more likely to survive. [Moi ici: A tal paisagem competitiva enrugada que se mexe] As organizations compete and struggle for existence, they clearly vary in ways that make some more competitive than others. Fitness in this case is not the reproductive success of biology but the ability to attract resources (physical, financial, and intellectual). [Moi ici: Recordo "What was the best strategy in the end?"] Less fit organisms die. Thus, survival at the organizational level is a function of the process of variation and selection occurring across business units and the ability of senior management to regulate this process in a way that maintains the ecological fitness of the organization with its environment. [Moi ici: Por isto, o team da caridadezinha, os trabalhadores não tomam este tipo de decisões] This process does not imply random variation but a deliberate approach to variation, selection, and retention that uses existing firm assets and capabilities and reconfigures them to address new opportunities."

Trecho retirado de "Lead and disrupt: how to solve the innovator's dilemma" de Charles A O' Reilly III and Michael L. Tushman.  

A paixão pela escala (Parte I)

Ao longo dos anos tenho escrito aqui no blogue sobre o que tenho aprendido no meu contacto com PMEs, e que não vejo descrito nem nos livros de gestão, nem ensinado na academia. Por exemplo, o estilhaçar do modelo mental do século XX, que apenas vê o preço como o factor chave de competição e que, por isso, vê o aumento da dimensão como fundamental para o sucesso. Recordo a minha reacção aos académicos da Junqueira em 2013 - Mas claro, eu só sou um anónimo engenheiro da província.

Hoje, sei precisar melhor a minha mensagem. O problema não é a dimensão (como me criticava o Bruno Fonseca), o problema é o foco num modelo de negócio baseado na competição pelo preço, o que passa inevitavelmente por um desafio de corrida contra o tempo para crescer e reduzir os custos unitários. No passado Sábado li este artigo, "Our Obsession With Scale Must End":

"Our obsession with scalability is getting in the way of unleashing the potential of the 21st century. [Moi ici: O que há anos e anos descrevo como Mongo. O século XX só conhecia uma estratégia, um modelo de negócio baseado nos custos unitários. Os clientes eram vistos como plankton, todos iguais, todos indistintos. O século XXI é o século do regresso às tribos, o regresso à paisagem super enrugada. O regresso a modelos não baseados no preço puro e duro] We’re so fixated on scalability we’ve taken our eye off of delivering value at every scale including the most important scale of one. The Industrial Era did that to us. Reaching the mass market takes precedence over delivering value to each customer. New customer acquisition trumps delivering value to existing customers.

...

The Industrial Era brought us the reign of the predominant business model. Every industry quickly became dominated by one business model that defined the rules, roles, and practices for all competitors and stakeholders. We became a nation of share takers clamoring to replicate industry best practices to gain or protect every precious market share point. Companies moved up or down industry leadership rankings based on their ability to compete for market share. 

...

Consumers are bringing the era of the predominant business model to an end. Business models don’t last as long as they used to. Predominant business models are crumbling all around us.

...

It’s time to end our obsession with scalability. [Moi ici: Quantos "milhares de anos" demorarão até que a academia actualize as suas sebentas escritas no século XX de Metropolis?] There are too many consumer, student, patient, and citizen needs left unmet by predominant business models in every industry. There are too many new business model concepts stuck on white boards and in consulting decks. We are still allowing predominant business models to slow down and block the emergence of new business models that can better meet our needs. It’s time to move from the era of the predominant business model to the era of business model proliferation." [Moi ici: O que significa a proliferação de modelos de negócio? Na parte II desta série abordaremos o tema do horror, o leap of faith necessário para entrar no século XXI] 

Escalar montanhas

Ontem o dia começou com a revisão dos e-mails recebidos durante a noite. Um deles remetia-me para um artigo que comentei em Maio de 2021 no postal, "duas economias, diferentes realidades, diferentes meios de competir ou não competir" (parte II), o artigo é ""Competition on Rugged Landscapes: The Dynamics of Product Positioning" de Leon Zucchini."

Como escrevi aqui:

"Usar uma paisagem enrugada para explicar comportamentos observados no mercado é um clássico neste blogue."

Entretanto, durante a caminhada matinal comecei a leitura de "The Crux - How Leaders Become Strategists" de Richard P. Rumelt. Como começa o livro? Como uma reflexão acerca da observação de gente a escalar uma parede nua só com as mãos.

"Climbers call such boulders “problems” and describe the toughest part as “the crux.” In the case of the Cul de Chien, you cannot get up with just strength or ambition. You have to solve the puzzle of the crux and have the courage to make delicate moves almost two stories above the ground.

...

The first climber said that he chooses the climb having the greatest expected reward and whose crux he believes he can solve. In a flash of insight, I realize this describes the approaches of many of the more effective people I have known and observed. Whether facing problems or opportunities, they focused on the way forward promising the greatest achievable progress—the path whose crux was judged to be solvable.

I began to use the term crux to denote the outcome of a three-part strategic skill. The first part is judgment about which issues are truly important and which are secondary. The second part is judgment about the difficulties of dealing with these issues. And the third part is the ability to focus, to avoid spreading resources too thinly, not trying to do everything at once. The combination of these three parts lead to a focus on the crux—the most important part of a set of challenges that is addressable, having a good chance of being solved by coherent action.

As with climbers, every person, every company, every agency faces both opportunities and obstacles to their progress. Yes, we all need motivation, ambition, and strength. But, by themselves, they are not enough. To deal with a set of challenges, there is power in locating your crux—where you can gain the most by designing, discovering, or finding a way to move through and past it."

"duas economias, diferentes realidades, diferentes meios de competir ou não competir" (parte II)

Parte I. 

Comecei a parte I com a imagem dos "caretos" da região de Trás-os-Montes como símbolo de um tempo em que cada região tinha a sua roupa, a sua gastronomia, os seus dialectos e sotaques, sem a pressão de uma uniformização centralizadora. 

No final da semana passada, numa caminhada matinal junto à foz do rio Douro 

tive a oportunidade de ler um texto muito, muito interessante, "Competition on Rugged Landscapes: The Dynamics of Product Positioning" de Leon Zucchini.

Antes de mais recordemos esta evolução na economia, do século XX para o século XXI, representada pela alteração da paisagem competitiva de um pico único para múltiplos picos:

"Competition on Smooth Landscapes [Moi ici: O mundo do século XX, o mundo do mercado homogéneo]

First, we consider performance in a smooth consumer landscape. ... in this type of landscape all consumers have similar preferences so there is only one large niche with a single global peak. In Figure 2, Panel (A) shows how average firm performance develops in the smooth landscape over time for different levels of competition. The learning process is clearly visible: firms start from their randomly assigned positions and gradually increase their performance as they explore the landscape and locate the global peak. After approximately 40 periods average performance has stabilized. The influence of competition is also clear: for a rising number of firms (F) the average performance stabilizes at a lower level. Thus, competition is detrimental to performance, which is exactly what we would expect in a real world setting. [Moi ici: A imagem clássica da competição económica. Quanto mais concorrentes, pior o desempenho]

...

firms‟ performance increases over time because they gradually approach the global peak: the distance initially drops sharply and then stabilizes after about 40 periods. This is what we would expect in an NK model with low ruggedness . However, in standard NK models without competition all firms would locate exactly at the global peak, whereas in Panel (B) an increasing number of competitors causes firms to locate at an increasing distance from the global peak. This is due to the difference between competition in horizontal and vertical differentiation ... if a firm has already located at the peak it becomes less attractive for all others. A corollary of this result is that with increasing competition the product designs offered in the market display greater heterogeneity: on average firms produce product designs that are similar but not identical to the modal consumer preference.

...

This means that in competitive markets with homogeneous consumer preferences firms never settle down but instead continue to adjust their product designs. Because firms only move when they can increase their (expected) performance and we know from Panel (A) that average performance has stabilized, that must mean that they are engaged in a constant process of stealing each other‟s customers.

This raises yet another question: which firms are moving? Does one dominant firm settle down on the peak while the others move around collecting the scraps, or does competition continue to threaten all firms? Panel (D) in Figure 2 shows that the latter is the case. It shows the proportion of market leaders, i.e. the firms with the highest market share, which are overtaken („dethroned‟) in each period. With an increasing number of competitors it becomes increasingly likely that the most successful firm will be dethroned: defending a leading market share becomes increasingly difficult the more competitors there are in the market.

Taken together these results suggest that on smooth landscapes, increasing competition causes markets to become increasingly and persistently volatile. Firms do not settle down with stable product designs but rather dance around the peak, continuously jostling for the best positions and being thwarted by their competitors. In terms of products the result is a continuous stream of new but similar product designs which become more and more diverse as competition increases. The cutthroat competition of stealing market shares in these markets is detrimental to firm performance, not only on average, but even for the most successful firms who are in constant danger of losing their leading position."

Agora o outro modelo económico, aquele a que chamo de Mongo, ou o Estranhistão, o modelo em que o século XXI se está a transformar:

"Competition on Rugged Landscapes

We have established that in „smooth‟ markets, competition leads to persistently volatile processes of adaptation. We now investigate how these dynamics are influenced by different distributions of consumer preferences. Figure 3 shows average results for different levels of ruggedness along the horizontal axis (from a single niche to many niches) and competition for the different lines (one, two, four and eight firms). The results are taken from the final period in the simulation ( ). Note that as illustrated by Figure 2 this is more than enough time for the results to settle into a pattern, whether static or volatile.

Panel (A) in Figure 3 shows how average performance changes with changing ruggedness and competition. For landscapes with few peaks (low ) increasing competition is detrimental to performance. This is the same result we saw in Figure 2. Here however, we see that as the landscape becomes increasingly rugged, the detrimental effect of competition on performance decreases: [Moi ici: Aquilo a que há anos designo aqui por "Live and let live"] evidently, if there are several niches it matters less if there are lots of rivals.

...

We already know that on smooth landscapes more competition causes firms to locate further away from the nearest peak. In Panel (B) we see that as the landscape becomes more rugged, firms locate closer to the nearest peak, regardless of the number of competitors in the market. This result suggests that firms may be dispersing to serve different niches. However, this result must be interpreted with caution because in more rugged landscapes there are also simply more peaks around. Note that firms that are alone in the landscape locate slightly further away from the nearest peak as K increases from zero.

...

what is the dynamic driving competition? One possibility is that there is constant movement both on smooth and rugged landscapes alike, with firms jostling each other off the peaks. In that case the differences in results for high levels of ruggedness may be due to the fact that the alternatives are more attractive: displaced firms can find other attractive niches to serve. Another possibility is that there is simply less movement on rugged landscapes because firms disperse and „settle down‟ to stable situations where each serves a local niche.

Panel (C) suggests that the latter explanation is more likely. For markets with few consumer niches competition has a large influence on volatility: the more firms in the market, the more movement we observe. As ruggedness increases, the average number of moves per firm and period decreases, regardless of the number of competitors. In very rugged landscapes (K=9) it makes hardly any difference whether there are two or eight firms in the market: firms have reached an essentially stable distribution.

Panel (D) corroborates this finding. On smooth landscapes the probability that the market leader will be dethroned depends heavily on the number of competitors. Thus, if there is a single large consumer niche then it will be difficult for any one firm to defend a lead in the market. As the number of niches increases, the number of competitors matters less and less: in the extreme case (K=9) the market leader has more than a 95% chance of defending its position even if there are eight competitors in the market. In these cases firms have dispersed to serve individual niches (local peaks in the consumer landscape) and are unlikely to move. That means firms which have located favorable niches with high performance (relative to their competitors) are unlikely to be overtaken.

To summarize, the distribution of consumer preferences matters for the dynamics of competitive positioning: On smooth landscapes we observe firms constantly jostling for competitive advantage around a few peaks. Competition is detrimental to performance and even successful firms are constantly in danger having their customers stolen by rivals. As the landscape becomes increasingly rugged, firms disperse more and more. Instead of clustering at some distance around a single peak they spread out to serve individual consumer niches. This has the additional effect that in very rugged markets movement drops to a minimum, and it is very unlikely that successful firms will be overtaken. Note that this result does not happen suddenly when the number of peaks becomes greater than the number of firms (at approximately ), but occurs gradually as ruggedness increases."

A paisagem pode ser modificada pelas empresas

Demasiadas vezes olhamos para a paisagem competitiva como uma constante do desafio.
Na verdade, a paisagem competitiva não é um dado constante. Ela está sempre a mudar. Ainda ontem a notícia sobre a taxa de 25% que os EUA vão aplicar sobre as importações de queijo e fruta, representa uma alteração da paisagem imposta por agentes muito poderosos.
O que esquecemos muitas vezes é que as próprias empresa podem agir, elas próprias, para alterar a paisagem competitiva onde actuam.

"For purposes of understanding shaping in strategy, the idea that organisms can alter their selection environments and those of their descendants has obvious appeal.
...
In biology, organisms shape elements of the selection environment that affect survival. But in strategy, firms generally have a different proximate goal—they seek profits—and they take action directed toward this goal. Thus, for firms, the relevant selection criteria are those that determine profits and payoffs to specific courses of action.We can think of the selection criteria for profit-seeking firms as encoded in the payoff structure that maps particular firm actions or decisions or attributes (e.g., activities, resources, and capabilities) to the payoffs that ensue. In this sense, shaping the selection environment in strategy means shaping the payoff structure for all firms operating in that environment. In NK terms, firms generate or modify the “fitness function,” which lies behind the topology of the fitness landscape that all firms climb in search of profit opportunities. Similarly, in the context of strategic interactions, shaping the business context means that a firm or firms playing a competitive game endogenously generate or modify the payoff structure for all firms in the game, such as by altering the payoffs to particular moves or the types of moves available.
...
1. Shaping can have major direct effects on the performance of a shaper and its position on the business landscape, i.e., its competitive advantage.
2. As a corollary, shaping can also have direct implications for the competitive advantage of competitors. In addition to improving the focal firm’s position, shaping can directly undermine other firms’ positions on the landscape by affecting the bases of their competitive advantage.
3. Highly malleable business landscapes may hide subtle dangers for shapers because high malleability leads to more frequent shaping. Although firms may be individually rational when shaping the business context in an effort to improve their performance, their independent actions may collectively lead to overshaping and long-run instability in performance for all firms.
4. Overshaping is not independent of the number of firms of the shaping type in the population. Unless shaping involves joint action by a group of firms (a case that the model does not contemplate), ceteris paribus the fewer the number of shapers, the greater the benefits from shaping activity.
5. The sustainability of competitive advantage is likely to be highest in situations of moderate to high complexity (K) combined with a low to moderate number of dimensions available for shaping (E). Under these conditions, any advantage obtained through shaping is less likely to be undermined by shaping on the part of other firms and is more likely to be sustained due to complexity."

Trechos retirados de "Searching, Shaping, and the Quest for Superior Performance" de Giovanni Gavetti, Constance E. Helfat e Luigi Marengo, publico por Strategy Science, Volume 2, Issue 3, September 2017, Pages ii, 141-209

"Re‐shaping demand landscapes" (Parte III)

Parte I e Parte II.

"The decision of where on the landscape firms should position their products is at the core of product positioning. By deciding what attributes to include in the product and what uses of the product to promote, firms guide the customers’ understanding of the new product’s comparison set, i.e., the appropriate demand landscape for the product. Firms’ emphasis on a subset of product attributes helps the customers determine the product’s location on the relevant demand landscape and the customers’ WTP for the product.
.
Competitor products can serve as referents for the introduction of new products and repositioning of existing products. Depending on the competitors’ positioning in relation to the customers’ ideal points, firms may pursue either differentiation or imitation strategies.
...
Four conditions are useful for thinking about how firms decide when to move on the demand landscape and when to reshape the landscape: weak connection between product attributes and performance, large number of attributes used by the customer to evaluate products, opportunity for collective action, and fragmentation of buyers and suppliers. Both firms that are constrained in their product-attribute choices and firms that have exhausted their repertoires of product modification options can pursue profits by attempting to change the shape of their demand landscapes.
...
Firms that are limited in their product modification options, e.g., generic drug manufacturers, may be especially likely to turn to landscape-shaping strategies in order to promote their products."

Trecho retirado de  "Re‐shaping demand landscapes: How firms change customer preferences to better fit their products". 

"Re‐shaping demand landscapes" (Parte II)

Parte I.

"A long-standing tradition in strategy conceptualizes the firm's operating environment as a fitness landscape. In this conceptualization, the firm’s performance is an outcome of searching the landscape for an optimal position. ... More recent contributions to this literature put forward the possibility of firms not just searching a landscape shaped by other actors, but also reshaping the landscape, i.e., changing the topology of the landscape to improve a focal firm’s position on the landscape and, with it, the firm’s performance. This suggestion expands the repertoire of strategies available to firms.
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To date the research on demand landscapes has taken the shape of the landscape as a given, implicitly assuming that firms operate on exogenously determined landscapes (i.e., firms’ only option is to change products to accommodate customer preferences). Taking a different perspective, I propose that firms can reshape the demand landscapes for their products (i.e., change customer preferences to accommodate their products).
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I consider two approaches to landscape reshaping by firms—1) moving the customer’s ideal point and 2) manipulating the customer’s perception of the distance between the customer’s ideal point and the firm’s product.
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My starting point is the demand landscape —a concept that describes the distribution of customer preferences in terms of customers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for different combinations of product attributes. ... In my conceptualization, the demand landscape represents a mapping from product attribute combinations (product positions) to customers’ WTP for these combinations."

Trecho retirado de  "Re‐shaping demand landscapes: How firms change customer preferences to better fit their products".

"Re‐shaping demand landscapes" (Parte I)

Usar uma paisagem enrugada para explicar comportamentos observados no mercado é um clássico neste blogue.

Por exemplo, recordar "Acerca da Totoestratégia" de Julho de 2012 ou "O modelo NK de Kauffman - uma introdução" de Dezembro de 2010:

Empresas que procuram subir na paisagem competitiva em busca de melhores retornos ou menos ameaças e que têm de estar alerta porque, quando menos se espera, o espaço onde se movem altera-se, e a posição onde se aterra pode significar a morte, ou pelos menos muita dor.

Depois, com Nenonen e Storbacka, assume-se que as empresas podem ser elas próprias a alterar a paisagem competitiva em seu benefício. Os mercados não são, vão sendo "markets are not – they become" de Março de 2015:

• Não é armadilhar, é criar harmonia, é construir uma sinfonia... (Julho de 2011)
• Scripting markets (Abril de 2014)
• Driving markets (Maio de 2014)
• "The key source of success is to conceive the VCS and make it work" (Setembro de 2017)
• Market shaping (Janeiro de 2018)
• Assumir o desafio de mudar um mercado (parte IV) (Janeiro de 2018)
• "You can’t shape your customer" (Abril de 2018)

Agora encontro "Re‐shaping demand landscapes: How firms change customer preferences to better fit their products":

"I suggest that in addition to repositioning their products to accommodate customer preferences firms also change the distribution of customer preferences to accommodate the firms’ products.
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Specifically, I argue that firms alter customer preferences by adding, removing, and transforming the dimensions of the demand landscape.
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Managers often assume that customer tastes are fixed and that the only way to improve a product’s appeal to customers is to change the products’ attributes to better accommodate the customers’ preferences. In this paper, I consider two approaches firms can take to changing customer preferences to better accommodate their products. One approach is to convince the customers that the combination of attributes offered by a focal product, e.g., the Apple iPhone is more valuable than the combination of attributes a customer is used to consuming. An alternative approach is to manipulate the customer’s perception of similarity between a product she is used to buying and the focal firm’s product."

Relacionar também com a sugestão "mudar de clientes", de mudar de vida.

Continua.

Paisagens enrugadas

O que acontece à necessidade, quanto á importância de ter uma estratégia e de monitorar as consequências da sua adopção quando se caminha para Mongo?

Mongo significa paisagem cada vez mais enrugada.

"An adaptive landscape is a mapping from a high-dimensional space of genotypes onto fitness or some other related quantitative phenotype, which defines the ‘elevation’ of each coordinate in genotype space. Evolution can be viewed as a hill-climbing process in an adaptive landscape, where populations tend to move towards peaks as a consequence of natural selection.
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An adaptive landscape that is smooth and single peaked does not pose any obstacle to evolutionary exploration. It is therefore highly navigable, in that it is possible to reach the global peak via positive selection through a series of small mutations that only move ‘uphill’. In contrast, a rugged landscape can block the approach to the highest peak by entrapping populations on local suboptimal peaks.
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We define landscape navigability as the ability to access a global peak via an evolutionary exploration involving random mutation and natural selection. Landscape navigability is highest when all mutational paths to the global peak exhibit a monotonic increase in binding affinity, which implies a landscape that is smooth and single peaked. Landscape navigability is lowest when no mutational paths to the global peak exhibit a monotonic increase in binding affinity. This implies a rugged landscape with many peaks.
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The number of peaks in an adaptive landscape is an important indicator of its navigability. The more peaks a landscape has, the less navigable it becomes, if the peaks are of unequal height."

Trechos retirados de "A thousand empirical adaptive landscapes and their navigability" de José Aguilar-Rodríguez, Joshua L. Payne and Andreas Wagner, publicado por Nature Ecology & Evolution 1, 0045 (2017)

Complex Adaptive Systems: 15 Fitness Landscapes

"posso sobreviver a uma desgraça?"

"«Em 2005 tivemos uma grande crise económica, a nível de mercado interno, ficamos completamente estagnados com a entrada da China, da Turquia. [Moi ici: A China, não o euro!] Vendíamos muito para o mercado interno e tivemos que pensar noutras saídas. E a saída n.º 1 foi mesmo o mercado externo, encaminhei todas as nossas energias para a exportação»
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a fórmula para conquistar os clientes já está definida: «temos apostado em artigos diferentes, preços competitivos e, especialmente, no poder de resposta. O poder de resposta é muito importante porque, hoje em dia, os clientes querem tudo rápido».[Moi ici: A resposta não podia ser competir de igual para igual com a China]
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Depois de um ano de 2016 de «muito investimento», com a aquisição de maquinaria que permitiu aumentar em 30% a produção, o CEO está convicto que 2017 «vai ser o ano de consolidar todo o investimento, de organização, de expansão em novos mercados e expectamos um crescimento de 3% a 4% no final do ano»."

Um optimista como eu, ainda com o vídeo na cabeça:


Começou a pensar naquela situação em que se tomam as decisões correctas e se chega ao topo da paisagem e ... subitamente, ela implode e afunda-se. Há alguma possibilidade de antecipação da mudança? Talvez não, talvez sim.

Recomendo o conselho de Nassim Taleb e dos estóicos: posso sobreviver a uma desgraça do mercado?

Trechos retirados de "Campos & Campos com prego a fundo"

Using fitness landscapes to visualize evolution in action

Conseguem ver o reshoring? E Mongo?



E o refluxo da globalização? E o low-cost a voltar a Portugal?

Aleluia meurmão!!!

Via @hnascim no Twitter cheguei a este texto muito interessante, "Está a começar a revolução do pão em Portugal" bem na linha de "pensem na magia que os muggles não conseguem entender..." de Agosto de 2014.

"“Nos últimos 60 anos, com o aparecimento da levedura industrial, houve uma alteração grande no modo de fabrico do pão nas padarias tradicionais”, explica. “O padeiro ganhou qualidade de vida. Antes, o processo levava pelo menos 12 horas desde que se começava a amassar, a tender, etc. Hoje é tudo mais rápido.” Mas isso teve custos.
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O problema, acredita, é que “começou a haver uma promiscuidade entre a indústria de panificação e os padeiros mais pequenos”. Perante a ofensiva da indústria, com preços muito baixos, os padeiros tradicionais só tinham duas alternativas para sobreviver: baixar a qualidade da matéria-prima ou aumentar a produção. “Assistimos aos artesãos a entrar no mercado da grande indústria e vice-versa”, ou seja, nas grandes superfícies começou a ver-se cada vez mais pães “artesanais”..
Em 2007, o mercado da padaria entrou em crise. “A Associação dos Padeiros disse que tínhamos de aumentar os preços 20 a 30% e as grandes superfícies tinham um anúncio a dizer: ‘Nós não vamos aumentar o preço do pão’.” José Miguel começou a ver que o caminho tinha de ser outro. Nunca uma pequena padaria como a sua poderia concorrer com a indústria que “esmaga completamente os preços”. E percebeu uma coisa: “Nós, os pequenos, temos de entrar pelos nichos de mercado e oferecer muito melhor qualidade. Para nós, é muito mais fácil do que para a indústria montar um processo de produção de 24 horas para o pão.”[Moi ici: Aleluia meurmão!!! Lc 15:7 por cada empresário que descobre esta Verdade e a põe em prática]

Turn, Turn, Turn

A leitura de "Adolescentes em transformação" desperta várias linhas de reflexão.
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O avanço da economia das experiências...
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O avanço do fast-fashion e, consequentemente, da produção de proximidade...
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A constante mudança da paisagem competitiva em que as empresas operam. Não há queijo garantido para ninguém, o que funciona hoje deixa de funcionar amanhã.
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Em sintonia com:

• Stuff vs experiences (parte IV)
• É a experiência, estúpido!

O poder da serendipidade

O poder da serendipidade

"In a world of people who too often see their situation as unchangeable, entrepreneurs choose to act. We feel the power of free will when we hear stories about the bold actions of entrepreneurs.
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Inspiring stories. But here is the rub: In each story, the innovator’s choice was driven by their context
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In each of these cases, context drove choice.
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True, it took a bold decision to actually create these businesses, and the innovators should be admired for this reason. But still, there is no way anyone could have started any of these businesses without being in the context that made the innovation possible.
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Context drives choice, yet choice is still pivotal to innovation because we often choose our context.
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Context drives choice, but we choose our context."

De certa forma o jogo, o balanço, na nossa vida, entre a exploitation e a exploration. É sempre útil, ter uma saudável dose de exploration na nossa vida. Podemos pensar que estamos bem, podemos estar bem e, no entanto, com a movimentação das placas tectónicas da paisagem competitva, com a alteração do enrugamento, deixamos de estar numa zona agradável e, sem exploração prévia que nos tenha dotado de outras habilidades... corremos mais riscos de passar um mau bocado.

Trechos retirados de "Context Drives Choice (and Vice Versa)"

pensem na magia que os muggles não conseguem entender...

Li esta história a 28 de Julho "The two sisters running a bakery in a desert" e ainda não me saiu da cabeça. Consigo encontrar várias notas interessantes e paradigmáticas.

"the elder of the two, says she had no previous experience in agriculture."

Ainda ontem no Twitter favoritei a frase:

"In a situation when you know nothing, everything is a possibility."

Tudo começou com a recordação de uma experiência, algo não matematizável mas muito poderoso.

 "Their business idea grew out of something their uncle told them - that in times gone by, the bread in this part of Spain tasted different.
It was a flavour he missed."

Por que é que o pão tradicional tinha perdido o seu sabor característico?
Porque deixou-se de cultivar trigo na região, as variedades mais produtivas, mais eficientes, mais abençoadas por burocratas em escolas, laboratórios e gabinetes do poder, não conseguiam crescer no deserto de Aragão.
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O pão tradicional, com o seu sabor tradicional, era feito a partir de um trigo específico, adaptado à região:

"'For the seed we grow, the climate is perfect', two sisters explain why they started a bakery and are growing wheat in a Spanish desert.
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They discovered that a type of wheat seed, known as Aragon 03, had been the secret behind the region's distinctly flavoured bread.
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"Many people told us we were crazy for trying to run a business like ours in a [dry] place like this. But we found out that the seed we grow is perfect for this climate," says Laura."

 E resultados?

"In the first year, their business lost lots of money, but by the third year they had broken even.
Now, seven years after they first started farming and baking, they own two bakeries and sell their products in eight others."

E recordando a frase favoritada:

""As my uncle used to say, you have to bend your knees and look closely. For example, I see opportunities where others don't."" 

O tema da frase favoritada recorda-nos logo Gary Klein: "nós não vemos através dos nossos olhos mas através das nossas experiências", e "as nossas experiências produzem modelos mentais", modelos mentais que nos ajudam a perceber e a actuar sobre a realidade. A experiência é uma vantagem até... deixar de ser.
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E quando é que a experiência deixa de ser uma vantagem?
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Quando a realidade muda!
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Aqui recordo as histórias de Laurence Gonzales e, como uma criança com 8 anos tem mais hipóteses de sobreviver na selva amazónica do que uma com 12 anos.
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Quando a realidade muda, a experiência pode-nos fazer prisioneiros de um mundo que já não existe e impedir-nos de procurar novas respostas e a ver barreiras em todo o lado.
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Leio esta história e vejo a desfilar perante mim o filme do século XX, o filme que levou a Magnitogorsk e à emergência de Mongo. Vejo o advento da Revolução Industrial, depois a chegada de Taylor e a propagação da religião da eficiência e da escala que culminam em Metropolis e no pós II Guerra Mundial com a produção e o mercado de consumo de massas. Toda a história económica do século XX pode ser resumida nessa busca da eficiência e da procura da subida no pico único da paisagem competitiva. Por exemplo, nos Estados Unidos em 1890 existiam cerca de 300 fabricantes de bicicletas, em 1905 já só existiam 12. Em 1920 existiam cerca de 1000 fabricantes de automóveis, em 1929 já só existiam 44. Depois, vejo a reacção a tudo isto com o advento de Mongo, com o exemplo da cerveja:

A explosão da diversidade que nos está a fazer entranhar no Estranhistão.
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Como sabem, sou um adepto do paralelismo entre a biologia e a economia e, a biologia está cá no planeta há uns anos mais do que a economia, por isso, a biologia já passou por Magnitogorsk e há muito que vive em Mongo, recordar as árvores cladísticas. Assim, não me espanta que de um lado tenhamos os sacerdotes da eficiência a tentar uniformizar o mundo e a padronizar o gosto, quando na realidade o mundo criou a biodiversidade por alguma razão.
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Temas para reflexões nas empresas:

• não é a competir de igual para igual, numa suposta arena perfeita, no mercado da concorrência perfeita, que está o futuro das PMEs. É a aproveitar o que é diferente, é a alavancar o particular, o distintivo, o típico... é a tornar, a fomentar a concorrência imperfeita.
• quando ouvirem falar em teoria económica, em macroeconomia, em oferta e procura, pensem neste exemplo, pensem na magia que os muggles não conseguem entender...

O mundo não é plano

O mundo não só não é plano como ao transformar-se em Mongo fica cada vez mais enrugado, com mais picos. E, como defendemos aqui, num mundo cada vez mais enrugado, o eficientismo não é uma boa base para o sucesso.

"contrary to what many business leaders think, the world is not flat. It is a round and roiling tangle of complex cultures, each separated from the others by its unique needs and expectations. We, the people who occupy this corrugated landscape, are defined by our history. Our traditions, politics, and religions inform our lives and influence our decisions—from whom we marry to what we buy. In a flat-world marketplace, one size fits all, but fitting a business to the intricate contours of the real world is a far more challenging prospect. That’s what makes design such an important part of any creative business strategy, and it’s also what has placed it in the driver’s seat of the new creative economy.
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Today, the business world is engaged in a global battle between individualism and collectivism or “Culture versus Commodity,” as I call it. As companies dive for the lowest costs, they abandon highly qualified local workers and place their bets with low-cost labor overseas - all under the “Flat-World” banner of cost-efficiency. As we’ve now seen, strategies that boost the bottom line in the short term often result in unsupportable losses down the road. Businesses that sacrifice their unique strengths for the safety of shared efficiency make losers of us all. They rob us of meaningful jobs, even as they diminish the economic and cultural value of once viable and innovative brands.
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In fact, the old Flat-World economy couldn’t be “won,” and now it can’t even be defended. Yes, by cutting cost and driving scale, businesses have helped to make high-tech products and digital services like computers and cell phones affordable beyond the most optimistic projections of even ten years ago. But the dirty by-product of these stunning technological advances is a world dominated by products that lack any semblance of human or cultural context. These mass-produced, mass-marketed objects don’t provide any type of inspiring consumer experiences. And, in markets divided into high-end luxury and value driven cheapness, competitive strategy becomes murky. How can a company add true value or even just visually differentiate its low-cost cell phone from those of its competitors, when all of them are designed and manufactured in just five or six Asian factories?
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Creative strategy offers clear benefits over the traditional supply chain-dominated approach to business. It results in human-adaptive solutions and not in commodity-like products for which nobody is willing to pay full price - especially when the offerings outnumber the buyers."

Trecho retirado de "A Fine Line" de Hartmut Esslinger.