"The High Risk of Low Cost"

Há dias em E Zeihan chega a Mongo! citei:

"4. Supply chains will be much shorter. 

...

5. Production will become colocated with consumption.

...

6. The new systems will put premiums on simplicity and security just as the old system put premiums on cost and efficiency."

Agora leio, por um lado os sintomas do impacte da incerteza no retorno dos inventários, "Why Fashion’s Inventory Problem Is Back (And How to Solve It)" e, por outro lado, o aumento do risco da aposta no custo mais baixo, "Navigating Retail’s New Era of Risk":

"On closer inspection it’s clear that today’s global supply chains are the product of centuries of growth but little meaningful evolution when it comes to risk management. 

...

The High Risk of Low Cost

Although separated by almost 200 years of history, the cotton famine of the 1860's and the supply chain crises of today share the same root cause: a myopic and often perilous focus on lowest landed unit cost. Procuring vast quantities of cheap goods has driven and continues to drive most of today's top brands because most see price as the cornerstone of competitiveness. However, as supply chain expert John Thorbeck often says, we operate in an era where business leaders must once and for all appreciate that the singular pursuit of low cost comes with an extraordinary number of risks that make businesses far less competitive, the first being the risk to financial capital.

...

It is also logical to assume that risks to global supply chains will become more frequent and profound as we become increasingly interconnected as a global community. 

...

If reducing unit cost was the competitive advantage of the past, eliminating risk is the competitive advantage of the future."

Interessante, como regresso sempre a Maio de 2020 e a El coronavirus actúa como acelerador de cambios que ya estaban en marcha. Pois, em 2008... Para reflectir

Outras leituras:

• A “globalização” morreu. Viva a “blocalização!

"Efficiency comes at a price!"

Um bom texto sobre os riscos associados à concentração, "The World's Food Supply Has Never Been More Vulnerable". 

Recordo a Ecco e a sua fracassada ideia de concentrar toda a sua produção em Bangkok, a concentração de toda a produção de Coca-Cola da Península Ibérica numa única fábrica, a eliminação da refinaria de Leixões, a eliminação da fábrica da UNICER em Loulé. [Moi ici: Como não relacionar o que escrevi sobre o fim da fábrica de Loulé o sucesso da Font Salem)]

Recordo ainda a ideia dos políticos de criarem hospitais-cidade, escolas-cidade, etc.

"Consolidation has made the U.S. meat industry — and the global protein supply — profoundly and unacceptably vulnerable. It will become more susceptible in the years ahead as public health threats and potential cyberattacks continue to loom large, and as climate change increases the risk of natural disasters. Drought, heat, flooding, wildfires, insects, superstorms and weather volatility are raising pressure on our farms and ranches. In short, the cost-saving benefits of agricultural consolidation are increasingly outweighed by the risks of disruption." [Moi ici: Recordo a vacaria com 33 mil vacas]

...

Food-industry experts have long been clamoring for systemic “resilience.” Last April, as the pandemic bore down on meat producers and before he began his second tour as U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary, Tom Vilsack told me that we’re “better off having multiple plants in multiple locations — smaller facilities to produce enough product. And that may mean a little less profit, but it means that if you have an incident like this that threatens your workforce, you'll always have sufficient operation capacity.” Vilsack reiterated this sentiment Tuesday in a call with reporters: “Efficiency comes at a price, and that price is a lack of resilience when you have a major disruption.""

 

Que cadeias de abastecimento para os próximos dois anos? (parte II)

Parte I.

"Even as factories come back online, new problems are constantly emerging. Brands are changing how they approach their supply chains in ways that will resonate long after the crisis. In many cases, flexibility is now a top priority. So is transparency, as the ability to keep tabs on where fabric and raw materials are at any given moment can now make or break a business.
...
Manufacturers have problems of their own, including cancelled orders from brands that had to close stores and are now stuck with warehouses full of unsold spring clothes. Tal Group, which manufactures products for brands including Michael Kors and Patagonia, expects order volumes to be down between 40 and 50 percent for the rest of the year. In April, it announced it would close operations at its two factories in Malaysia.
...
Some brands are moving their manufacturing out of China. This was a trend before the pandemic, due to rising costs and a simmering trade war with the US. In the McKinsey survey, around 60 percent of respondents said they expected manufacturing clusters to develop more quickly in markets like Eastern Europe and Central America that are closer to customers in the US and Western Europe.
...
“The dividing line between winners and losers are the ones who will be able to adapt fast and in an intelligent way.”"

Trechos retirados de "How to Avoid the Next Supply Chain Shock"

Que cadeias de abastecimento para os próximos dois anos?

"Assuming the pandemic lifts and lockdowns end, the medium-term threat to long and complex supply chains comes from two sets of decisions. One is by companies concluding they have overexposed themselves to shocks. The other is governments trying to force businesses to diversify supply internationally or to bring their production home.
.
On the first, it is unclear whether shortening or diversifying supply chains would have helped companies avoid a global shock such as Covid-19. [Moi ici: Fico admirado com esta argumentação. O que se passou, passou-se. As decisões do futuro serão acerca do contexto do futuro. Daqui - "it may take up to two years to fully restore consumer confidence" - que cadeias de abastecimento serão mais flexíveis para gerir os próximos dois anos? Que cadeias de abastecimento serão mais flexíveis para as tentativas, erros e reposições mais frequentes?] There is a strong view among some academics and management theorists that it would. Beata Javorcik, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, wrote in the FT:
“The quest to find the most cost-effective suppliers has left many companies without a plan B. Businesses will be forced to rethink their global value chains . . . the disadvantages of a system that requires all of its elements to work like clockwork have now been exposed.”
...
Meanwhile, the costs of changing supplier — and sourcing from more than one provider to spread the risk — is prohibitively expensive for an industry as complex as carmaking. “You need to spend a great deal of management time and effort and expertise on actually making sure the supplier you have chosen has processes that are capable, reliable and repeatable,” Mr Neill says.
...
The combination of labour cost arbitrage and clusters of specialisms push companies towards constructing a disaggregated international value chain.
...
Second, China has actively encouraged its companies to create supply chains with state help through the Belt and Road Initiative, which includes a strong motivation to service the European market. There will always be some life in global supply chains as long as the vast resources of the Chinese state are busy building infrastructure and establishing trading links across the world."

Trechos retirados de "Will coronavirus pandemic finally kill off global supply chains?"

"when speed is low, development requires big investments"

O meu parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras enviou-me o link para este artigo "Six ingredients of agile organizational design" com o comentário:

"Só agora associei o Scrum como uma resposta para planeamento do Mongo!"

Caro amigo... até apetece exclamar: Duh!!!

Li o artigo duas vezes e das duas vezes sublinhei este trecho:

"Nowadays, a company’s chances of survival are low if it takes too long to create (new) products. Our company becomes slow if we need a number of teams, each producing a part of the product, to be able to create possible customer value. The specialised team approach creates many dependencies between teams when we try to create customer value. We only know if our product (or change) is successful after releasing it in the hands of the customer because that is when we get real feedback and our assumptions are validated. The slower our company is, the longer it takes before we get customer feedback, i.e. return on investment (if any). That’s why when speed is low, development requires big investments." 

E sorri ao relacionar com a série "Acerca da rapidez" e com as novas regras de xadrez. Mongo tem tudo a ver com rapidez, flexibilidade e personalização.

E acerca de:

"Some teams do not even know what value they are creating from a customer point of view: the workers have never seen a real customer or they don’t have one because they deliver so-called “products” to another department."

Fez-me recordar um texto citado aqui no blogue recentemente:

"Leaders who connect employees with end users motivate higher performance, measured in terms of revenue as well as supervisors’ ratings.
...
Customers, clients, patients, and others who benefit from a company’s products and services motivate employees by serving as tangible proof of the impact of their work, expressing appreciation for their contributions, and eliciting empathy, which helps employees develop a deeper understanding of customers’ needs."

Nichos, co-criação e intimidade à escala

"Dalton, Ohio is an unlikely place to find fresh insight into how to thrive in a chaotic 21st-century economy.[Moi ici: Pensem no século XXI, na internet, em toda a parfernália tecnológica e, depois, pensem numa empresa de gente Amish que cumpre os preceitos Amish, que não pode ter electricidade da rede ligada ao negócio, que não pode usar a internet, ... como prosperam?]
...
A company like Pioneer could not have been nearly as successful in a previous era. It is, in its own way, thoroughly modern and embodies what I call the “passion economy”
...
The tools of modern commerce—easy access to sophisticated shipping and logistics, the ability to reach and connect with customers all over the globe—are now available even to the most technologically unsophisticated businessperson. This allows something new: intimacy at scale, in which companies can create highly specialized products that reach customers thinly spread around the world.[Moi ici: Quando leio estas coisas lembro-me sempre da lição alemã que aprendi em 2010 - ""pursue niche strategies that combine product specialization with geographic diversification", "they concentrate their often limited resources on niche market segments that they can dominate worldwide.", e de Conrado Adolfo e o fim da geografia, apesar de Ghemawat]
.
The Pioneer business model would be hard to pitch to a group of investors. The core addressable market is fewer than 25,000 farmers, with decidedly below-average purchasing power. That market cannot be reached through digital ads, TV or radio. The products themselves are big and bulky and need to be shipped from rural Ohio to remote customers across North America. [Moi ici: Sabe quem são os seus clientes? Sabe o que procuram e valorizam? Sabe quais são as suas ansiedades e sonhos? Sabe quais são os seus medos e dores? Sabe o que é sucesso para eles?]
...
Amish farmers are increasingly shifting from bulk commodity grains to higher-value produce, which means they need entirely different kinds of gear. [Moi ici: Interessante esta nota acerca da fuga à comoditização por parte de uma comunidade que não pode usar tecnologia moderna e tudo o que apoia o eficientismo da quantidade] Many Amish are moving north, leaving their historic districts in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Indiana for relatively cheap farmland in the deindustrializing Rust Belt and the prairie out west. This means they are farming colder, rockier ground and need plows that are stronger and more pliable.
...
In today’s economy, the narrowness and complexity of Pioneer’s market is actually a strength. While 25,000 farmers aren’t enough to attract the full attention of the big players like John Deere, Kubota and Caterpillar, they are more than enough to support Pioneer and several other Amish farm equipment makers, all of which are growing healthily.
...
Companies like Pioneer will not replace large firms, which are getting bigger and more dominant in the American economy.
...
But companies like Pioneer offer an alternative path. By focusing obsessively and passionately on an audience that they know uniquely well, and by embracing the tools that will help them serve that audience while rejecting those that won’t, such small businesses are able to thrive in the 21st-century economy."

Quando em "Acerca da rapidez (parte II)" rematamos no final "Talvez os nichos sejam o futuro, talvez a co-criação seja o futuro." estamos a sugerir o mesmo caminho referido no último trecho sublinhado. Focar um nicho e servir esse nicho como ninguém"

Trechos retirados de "An Amish Lesson for Small Business Success"

Acerca da rapidez (parte I)

No Le Figaro de hoje um artigo interessante "La montée en gamme des marques chinoises". Assim que o comecei a ler recordei o OODA loop de Boyd. Antes de mergulhar no artigo, convido a ler um excerto de "Parte II: OODA loops, a agilidade, o partir pedra e o xadrez," escrito em Janeiro de 2009:

"Procure o melhor jogador de xadrez que conseguir e ofereça-se para jogar com ele sob estas condições:
O seu adversário faz a primeira jogada;
Você faz duas jogadas por cada uma das que ele fizer.
.
De facto, até pode oferecer-se para abdicar de algumas peças, para que o jogo seja mais justo. Descobrirá que, a menos que esteja a jogar com alguém de nível muito elevado, pode desistir de praticamente tudo e ainda assim ganhar. Mantendo os cavalos e talvez uma torre.
.
Esta é uma ilustração expressiva de como o opositor materialmente mais fraco, usando a agilidade, pode ultrapassar uma grande desvantagem numérica.”
.
Please rewind and read again."

Percebem porque fico doente com a falta de fogo no rabo?

Voltemos ao artigo:

"Les marques chinoises ne font plus fuir le consommateur chinois. Au contraire. En à peine dix ans, l'étiquette « made in China », auparavant synonyme de mauvaise qualité et d' arnaque au consommateur, est devenue dans beaucoup de cas symbole de fierté nationale, et même recherchée par un public entièrement digitalisé, avisé, exigeant et difficile à fidéliser. Aujourd'hui le millennial chinois - cible phare des marques à la fois chinoises et internationales - s'attend à ce qu'une marque anticipe ses besoins et rende l'expérience d'achat la plus pratique possible. Véritable témoin de la montée en puissance de la Chine sur la scène internationale, il n'hésite pas à acheter chinois, contrairement à la génération précédente qui peine encore à sauter le pas.
...
Au-delà de la qualité qui est au rendez-vous, les marques chinoises connaissent leur marché et sont plus flexibles et rapides à s'adapter que leurs concurrents étrangers. Elles ont su ajuster leur management, valoriser le branding et segmenter leur offre. Mais surtout, la vraie valeur ajoutée est leur compréhension des enjeux de la digitalisation et de l'e-commerce. Ce sont avant tout des entreprises technologiques comme le sont par exemple Ofo (vélos connectés) ou VIP Kids (éducation en ligne). « Une marque chinoise peut sortir un produit en six mois contre deux ans pour une multinationale. En plus, beaucoup sont nées lors de l'ère digitale, ce qui leur donne un avantage pour innover, notamment dans la vente en ligne » , selon Chris Reitemann, directeur géné-ral Chine pour Ogilvy." 

Continua.

Speed to market

Um conjunto de frases retiradas do podcast "Inside H&M’s $4B Inventory Challenge | Inside Fashion" que o amigo Pedro Alves me enviou.

"Focus should be speed to market

Speed has to be the primary asset and capability. Speed is a way to reduce cost and reduce risk.

Cost of lost sales

Cost of high markdowns

Cost of high inventory

Speed is more than being trendy

Speed is primary

A very digital world but it is an analog supply chain depending on lowest cost countries and long lead times supplied by sea

The high cost of low cost: there is a cost to being slow and being in 12 month design cycles and 6/9 months delivery cycles."

E regressamos a 2006 e a um texto sobre isto "O regresso dos clientes" que cita um artigo de 2004. Ou seja, alguém em 2004 publicou um artigo sobre os perigos do modelo eficientista, e em 2019 ainda  vemos tantas empresas mergulhadas nesse modelo. Algumas com sucesso e muitas a perder dinheiro e valor das marcas. Isto faz-me recordar um trecho retirado de um livro que não consigo identificar, julgo que de Adrian Slywotzky, e tenho 8 ou 9 livros dele, sobre o negócio dos televisores a preto e branco. Quando apareceu a TV a cores os televisores a preto e branco ficaram condenados à morte. Uns concorrentes sairam logo desse mercado, outros foram empurrados e mortos sem alternativa, até que ficaram aqueles que assumiram esse mercado até ao fim e ganharam dinheiro a explorar os nichos em que uma televisão a cores é suficiente porque o que conta é o preço, como o das televisões para segurança.

Três grupos:

• os que agem ao primeiro sinal e partem em exploration de novas alternativas;
• os que por cegueira ou incapacidade continuam a sua vida de exploitation através de local searches; e
• os que assumem a exploitation até ao fim, conscientes de que mesmo assim, terão de fazer a sua mudança, porque os dois primeiros grupos vão libertar quota de mercado, voluntária ou involuntariamente.

Voltando ao podcast: em que grupo se enquadra a H&M?

É que não basta decidir mudar...

"First, strategy exists in managers’ minds—in their theories about the world and their company’s place in it. Second, strategy is embodied, reified in a firm’s activities, and routines. Understanding the origins of strategy therefore requires a grasp of how its two aspects— the mental and the physical—jointly come into being. That is, it requires the characterization of a two-part search process. One part occurs in the world of cognition and comprises the mental processes that mold particular theories about the firm and its environment. The other unfolds in the world of action and consists of mechanisms that shape what a company actually does."

Além da decisão é preciso re-orientar toda uma organização habituada e moldada a uma certa forma de trabalhar. Basta comprar o que está por trás da Zara e o que está por trás da H&M antes de chegar à prateleira.


Trecho retirado de "On the Origin of Strategy: Action and Cognition over Time" de Giovanni Gavetti, e Jan W. Rivkin, publicado em Organization Science Vol. 18, No. 3, May–June 2007, pp. 420–439.

"Avé, Avé, Avé Maria"

Quem me conhece sabe que às vezes começo a cantar em modo rápido uma versão do "Avé, Avé, Avé Maria" como outros contam até 10, para não hiperventilar e perder a cabeça a dizer coisas de que me possa arrepender. Claro que a maior partes das vezes é usada para demonstrar o meu desacordo, ou quase desespero com o que acabei de ouvir.

Apeteceu-me cantar um "Avé, Avé, Avé Maria" ao ler em Novembro de 2018, como se fosse uma novidade descoberta recentemente:

"“O envolvimento dos vários stakeholders da cadeia de internacionalização faz com que as empresas aumentem a sua quota no mercado externo e o sucesso passa por agilizar processos, mais do que reduzir custos ou outros aspetos que se mantém relevantes”"

Afinal, o que é que pregamos neste blogue desde 2005 ou 2006?

• Uma adega? Não uma "boutique" de vinhos! (Junho de 2006)
• Como assegurar a sustentabilidade desta comunidade? (Outubro de 2006)
• Flexigurança, fiscalidade e competitividade (Janeiro de 2007)
• Quem se concentra na defesa do passado, perde a oportunidade de ganhar o futuro (Maio de 2007)
• Flexibilidade, flexibilidade, flexibilidade (Julho de 2007) 
• Tirem-me deste filme (parte III de IV) (Julho de 2008)
• Pregarás o Evangelho do Valor (Março de 2011)

Quem é que contou esta "novidade"?

"afirmou Jorge Rocha de Matos, presidente da Fundação AIP,"

Rocha de Matos? Ainda não se reformou? Ah! Arranjaram-lhe uma prateleira de onde continua a controlar. Como é que alguém se mantém tanto tempo à frente de organizações privadas?

Trecho inicial retirado de "Agilizar é palavra de ordem na nova estratégia das exportações"

“Globalization is becoming regionalization, and regionalization is becoming intra-national,”

A propósito de "More Factories Crop Up Closer to Customers":

"The largest share of manufacturers in at least a decade is spending to expand facilities, as companies look to build plants closer to their customers to offset record-high trucking costs and seek out pockets of available workers in a tight labor market.
.
Twelve percent of U.S. manufacturers that invested in added capacity at domestic factories in the second quarter did so through building expansions, according to the Census Bureau, the highest proportion in the decade that metric has been released. Manufacturing construction spending hit a 16-month high in September, according to the Census Bureau. Executives are making some of those investments in new factories to alleviate rising transport bills and supply-chain bottlenecks.
...
as the company seeks to make its products as close to customers as possible to speed up delivery times and cut logistics costs.
...
Companies building plants nearer to customers say the investment costs can be made up in faster turnaround times and increased orders.
...
Some companies also are trying to source more parts locally to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on some foreign goods, said executives at Flex Ltd., which makes and ships products—including shoes and personal electronics— for other companies.
.
“Globalization is becoming regionalization, and regionalization is becoming intra-national,” said Tom Linton, Flex’s supply-chain officer.""

A mim ninguém me tira a ideia de que Mongo tem um dedo importante nesta evolução: proximidade, rapidez, flexibilidade, interacção, co-criação

Acerca da fábrica do futuro

Um artigo interessante, "Inside the Digital Factory", que aborda vários teas acerca da fábrica do futuro, mas que convenientemente esquece as implicações da democratização da produção. Adiante:

"heralding a new era for manufacturers, marked by totally integrated factories that can rapidly tailor products to individual customer needs and respond instantly to shifting demands and trends. This fully digital factory can be a catalyst for a kinetic growth agenda delivering gains in productivity, financial and operational performance, output, and market share [Moi ici: LOL!!! Até parece que Mongo vai ser terra de competir por market share!] as well as improved control and visibility throughout the supply chain.
...
98 percent of respondents still view digitization somewhat blandly as a path for increasing production efficiency.  [Moi ici: Conheço esta gente. Muitos são boa gente, mas estão de tal forma moldados pelo modelo mental anterior que não conseguem fugir dele. Também por isso vão ser vítimas do que esteve na base do seu sucesso no nível anterior do jogo] But at the same time, a whopping 74 percent of companies named regionalization (being able to set up or expand factories in markets where their products are sold and where opportunities exist to widen revenue streams through customized products and improved service levels) as a primary reason for digital investments. [Moi ici: Uma fábrica para cada continente, dizem algumas multinacionais mais dinâmicas, mas não estão a ver que não é uma questão de eficiência, é uma questão de interacção, de customização, de relação, de proximidade]
.
Moreover, in a sharp departure from the recent past, the possibility of being able to immediately tailor products to match customer preferences and to offer customers the option to “build” their own products appears to be driving production decisions more strongly than slashing labor costs.  [Moi ici: Q.E.D.] Indeed, only about 20 percent of respondents now plan to relocate manufacturing facilities to low-wage countries in Asia, Eastern Europe, and South America; nearly 80 percent are looking at Western Europe (where their largest customer bases are) for new digital factory capacity."

O trecho que se segue parece retirado do discurso do meu parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras:

"One of the more intractable obstacles to a successful digital factory is the makeup of the workforce itself. This type of advanced production approach represents an entirely new model of human–machine interaction, one that not many workers — or manufacturers — are prepared for. In our view, understanding the impact on the people in the company is at least as important as calculating the financial benefit of the digital factory, in part because the former will ultimately impinge on the latter. Employees who feel marginalized by the emphasis on new technologies or who are not equipped to work in that environment will compromise the factory’s chances for success."

O futuro passará por voltar ao passado

“In the 1950’s footwear brands offered many different widths and in-store customer service for bespoke fitting. However, with mass scale global production in the 1970’s and fast fashion of today, this went away. Now 90% of the population buy the wrong shoe sizes or don’t even know their correct shoe size. This has created an average of 20% return rate from brick and mortar and e-commerce sales. This mounts to annual 80 billion of lost revenue for the footwear industry! Thus, the pain point is in correct sizing, fitting and reducing returns and not necessarily figuring out the new trendy color for the spring collection. By offering consumers 127 sizes you can capture 90% more of the population simply by offering a vast size range that serves the consumer directly for accurate fit with 3mm increments. The 90% of the population needs to be provided for different widths and global sizing fitting to encompass all markets. 127 sizes will also increase revenue for brands to better serve the consumer for a better fit.”

O futuro passará por voltar ao passado. Uma ideia que não é nova neste blogue.

Trecho retirado de "Janne Kyttanen: Finding the magic number for customization utilizing 3D printing in your industry"

"a natural fit for their agile development philosophies"

"Domestic manufacturing enables companies like Burrow and Chapter 3 to continually refine their designs and ramp production up and down in response to customer feedback. They can also ship directly to consumers, reducing delivery times.
...
“[Burrow] can send over an idea to me or my husband, and sometimes in the same day we can mock up a modification of something,” Schock says. “We can get the email, walk downstairs to the plant, and pull it together.”
.
She adds: “The consumer, if they want more choices, you’re going to need to have shorter lead times and smaller quantities. Importing doesn’t adhere to those things.”
...
he and others are discovering that domestic manufacturing is a natural fit for their agile development philosophies. “I’ve made stuff in China, it’s a huge pain in the ass. You can’t be very reactive in your iteration process, and there are high minimum order quantities,” Kan says. “The cool thing about the internet is that you can make changes very quickly. Taking some of that to the physical goods world is really good.”"

Demoram tanto a perceber isto?

Trechos retirados de "From Mexico To Mississippi: Why This Sofa Startup Is Now “Made In The USA”"

Babel e zombies

"In March, Zara-owner Inditex reported its smallest gross profit margin in a decade; 56.3 percent in the 2017 fiscal year, compared with 57 percent in 2016. While comparable-store sales were still up 5 percent in the second half of 2017, it was the slowest growth the retailer has seen in three years.
...
But the biggest problems facing fast fashion are not linked to social concerns. Today, perhaps the primary threats to fast fashion are digital and faster fashion.
.
Last year, sales at the Manchester-based retailer Boohoo — which offers ultra-cheap, ultra-trendy clothes, mostly through e-commerce — were up 97 percent to £579.8 million, or about $800 million. (Boohoo also owns NastyGal and PrettyLittleThing.) Boohoo may be tiny compared to its more established competitors but its model could have serious impact.
.
More than half of Boohoo’s products are made in the UK and it has invested in local websites and fulfillment warehouses, which means it can get product to its customer even faster, in many cases, than traditional fast fashion players, whose first-mover advantage is waning.
.
At the same time, traditional fast fashion continues to lag in digital."

E que tal viajar a Maio de 2006 para ler o que se escrevia neste blogue?

"Preparando-se para pequenas quantidades, muita flexibilidade e em vez de duas épocas por ano… 52 épocas por ano."

E não me admiraria nada que a suckiness também tivesse responsabilidades no cartório. Os gigantes, por mais rápidos que sejam podem sempre ser ultrapassados por quem seja ainda mais rápido, mais focado e com uma melhor estória.

Pobres sociedades que protegem os incumbentes...

Depois de cair o BES e a PT só falta cair a EDP para estar feita a grande reforma estrutural da economia portuguesa.

— Ricardo Oliveira ☕️ (@rpOliveira) June 2, 2017

Trechos retirados de "Fast Fashion's Biggest Threat Is Faster Fashion"

Até a Sonae

"A Berg Outdoor está a apostar na produção em Portugal para internacionalizar a marca de artigos de desporto e vida ao ar livre da Sonae e, no segmento têxtil, toda a oferta para o mercado externo é agora 100% portuguesa. A viragem da produção têxtil asiática para o Made in Portugal acompanha a nova coleção outono/inverno 2018, depois de a empresa, com sede no Porto, ter reunido um grupo de mais de 20 fornecedores num raio de 60 quilómetros. Os custos de produção podem subir, mas isso acaba por ser compensado. "A proximidade significa mais flexibilidade, maior controlo dos processos, mais rapidez no desenvolvimento do produto, mais garantia de qualidade, muito mais agilidade", explica Miguel Tolentino, diretor-geral da Berg Outdoor, confiante na mais-valia de uma solução que permite acompanhar todo o ciclo de inovação de forma próxima. Ao mesmo tempo, a empresa pode navegar a onda positiva "do trabalho de reinvenção da indústria têxtil nacional, com um foco na qualidade, na tecnicidade, na inovação".”

Estamos em 2018, mais de 10 anos depois de "Flexigurança, fiscalidade e competitividade". Demorou  11 anos mas agora até a Sonae, empresa onde reina o paradigma do custo mais baixo (e aqui), aderiu ao que este blogue aconselhava.

“Berg aposta na produção nacional e ruma à Eslováquia”, Caderno de Economia do semanário Expresso de 3 de Fevereiro de 2018.

Agora vou especular (parte II)

Na Parte I em Novembro de 2007 escrevi:

"Assim, se tivesse dinheiro tinha adquirido a fábrica de Loulé à UNICER, com os trabalhadores incluídos, e entrava no mercado da produção de pequenas séries de cerveja, por conta das grandes marcas, estilo 'façonnage', como dizem na indústria farmacêutica. Transformava a fábrica numa 'boutique' de pequenas séries, de autênticas 'delicatessen'... delicadezas que as grandes linhas não podem fornecer."

Agora Fevereiro de 2018, "Font Salem investe mais 40 milhões na fábrica de Santarém":

"a empresa vai também investir numa nova linha de produção, a sétima da fábrica. “Ampliaremos a capacidade produtiva da fábrica Font Salem de Santarém, [Moi ici: Depois de um outro investimento feito em 2015] que alcançará os quatro milhões de hectolitros ao ano. O que nos deixa com sete linhas de enchimento prontas para preparar todo o tipo de cervejas e refrigerantes. Com isto, prevê-se a expansão da fábrica, o que tornará possível produzir novos produtos – para além das atuais 300 referências”,"

"Font Salem vai investir 40 ME para duplicar produção na fábrica de Santarém"

"A Font Salem espera agora que a expansão da fábrica de Santarém se traduza também no aumento da produção para o mercado externo, onde a empresa quer crescer acima dos 25% nos próximos anos."

Recordar Setembro de 2011 - "Um exemplo de proposta de valor"

Recordar Janeiro de 2012 - "Sistematização de ideias"

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"Not only did print on demand provide an easy way to offer my customers more options, but it was also a simple way to spread brand awareness without having to fill my apartment with inventory.
The world of print-on-demand fashion has revolutionized the side hustle and merchandising game for many entrepreneurs. There is no risk in launching a new T-shirt design in your store because there is no preprinting and inventory required.
...
“E-commerce is all about finding ways to do things faster, cheaper, and easier,” ... “The fact that I can run a profitable business out of my home, with no office space, employees, or startup costs is pretty phenomenal.”
...
Some store owners have taken advantage of these same tools to make hyper-personalized items.
...
Despite these advantages, one of the largest downsides to print on demand remains the price. When no quantities are guaranteed up front, the prices for printing are not cheap, leaving a low profit margin for the seller.
...
Print-on-demand platforms make it easy for artists to list their work on a multitude of shirts, posters, mugs, and so on without testing them in advance. Companies make this variety tempting to give customers a greater selection and increase the chances they’ll make a purchase.
...
In our fast-paced era of online content creation, social media stars with big fan bases are becoming much more common. For smaller stars with dedicated followings, these on-demand opportunities can also be fantastic for creating branded merchandise. YouTubers and podcasters can let their fans be brand ambassadors, spreading the word and growing the hype.
...
But on-demand printing is not limited to fashion. It’s also a wonderful way for writers to self-publish.
...
Overall, on-demand printing and its integration with various platforms is empowering designers and creators alike to take charge over their creative ventures and not be limited by traditional business or industry barriers. It makes small fashion businesses more accessible and brings buyers a more custom experience."

Recordar todos aqueles que têm sempre na boca a inovação, a Indústria 4.0, a IA e, continuam a acreditar que a escala é tudo:

"Hoje em dia, na grande parte das actividades, a escala é muito importante."

E não percebem a dispersão crescente da procura, de como a autenticidade é cada vez mais importante e de como há cada vez menos barreiras à entrada: a democratização da produção.




Trechos retirados de "Technology Shaping the Fashion Industry"

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte II)

Parte I.

Quem ao longo dos anos segue este blogue, conhece a minha metáfora de Mongo sobre o mundo económico para onde caminhámos, e sobre como esse mundo representa um distanciamento face ao paradigma que formatou as universidades e os cursos de economia e gestão, moldados nos modelos da produção em massa, da escala, daquilo a que chamo de Metropolis ou Magnitogorsk, crentes na racionalidade das decisões.

Quem conhece a metáfora de Mongo, olhe bem para o tweet que se segue:

The explosion of craft brewing could be an early signal of a big shift away from standardized mass market products to tailored creative products, leading to a significant fragmentation of product businesses https://t.co/rF3q7MT48A

— John Hagel (@jhagel) January 27, 2018

Reparem:

"a big shift away from standardized mass market products to tailored creative products, leading to a significant fragmentation of product businesses"

Como isto é nem mais nem menos o que aqui dizemos desde Novembro de 2007:

"Se Chris Anderson tiver razão, e espero bem que sim, trata-se de uma esperança, para as sociedades dos países pequenos. Quanto mais aumentar o poder da cauda longa, mais oportunidades de negócio existirão, para as pequenas empresas, rápidas e flexíveis que apostarem na diferenciação, na diversidade, na variedade. A cabeça pode ficar para os asiáticos, mas a nata das margens, essa ficará para quem, como dizia Jesus Cristo, tiver olhos para ver, e ouvidos para ouvir, a corrente, a tendência de fundo."

Na parte III vamos mergulhar nas implicações das produções "on demand" para na parte IV analisarmos o artigo sobre as cervejas artesanais e o seu simbolismo.

"a problem has different solutions on different days"

"Most of us would consider it unwise to do something before we are fully prepared; before the equipment is optimally in place and our workers well trained. But as the reader will discover, that's the situation we found ourselves in. And in researching this book, we discovered that that is the situation leaders and organizations far from any battlefield face every day.
...
The Task Force hadn't chosen to change; we were driven by necessity. Although lavishly resourced and exquisitely trained, we found ourselves losing to an enemy that, by traditional calculus, we should have dominated. Over time we came to realize that more than our foe, we were actually struggling to cope with an environment that was fundamentally different from anything we'd planned or trained for. The speed and interdependence of events had produced new dynamics that threatened to overwhelm the time-honored processes and culture we'd built.
.
Little of our transformation was planned. Few of the plans that we did develop unfolded as envisioned. Instead, we evolved in rapid iterations, changing—assessing—changing again. Intuition and hard-won experience became the beacons, often dimly visible, that guided us through the fog and friction. Over time we realized that we were not in search of the perfect solution—none existed. The environment in which we found ourselves, a convergence of twenty-first century factors and more timeless human interactions, demanded a dynamic, constantly adapting approach. For a soldier trained at West Point as an engineer, the idea that a problem has different solutions on different days was fundamentally, disturbing. Yet that was the case."

Trechos retirados de "Team of Teams: The Power of Small Groups in a Fragmented World" de Stanley McChrystal e Chris Fussell

Pode ser a vantagem das PME (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

Não é novidade aqui no blogue mas assim, directo ao tema, nunca é demais:

"1. Product InnovationIn markets with an abundance of brands and less and less differentiating products, product development and sourcing capabilities move back into the strategic focus of fashion retailers. It’s the key enabler for differentiation in the competitive environment. Access to deep technical expertise and unique handwriting of product groups that are critical for brand building as well as curated supplier portfolios with the true ability to drive innovation, evolve to an indispensable asset to drive top line as well as markdown and margin performance.
.
2. Time to MarketIt is obvious that the speed of trends and innovation has tremendously increased over the recent years and consumers are adopting market impulses from option leaders, celebrities, and bloggers at high pace. This requires being closer to consumer needs with critical seasonal milestones on concept, design, and development for adoption of trend impulses as well as buying decisions to ensure market right products and quantities. Sourcing plays a critical role in enabling differentiated seasonal calendars based on individual product needs and a balanced mix of near shore and far east sourcing destinations.
.
3. Demand & Supply ResponsivenessA significant part of end-of-seasons stock and related markdowns stems from buying and production volumes being insufficiently aligned with actual consumer demand on the shop floor and online during full price selling period. Leading retailers and brands currently make significant investments to drive end-to-end planning integration along the value chain across retail, product merchandising, material management, and sourcing/production. Main objective is to act vertical while typically not owning the different stages of the value chain down to production.
.
4. Reliability and Execution ExcellenceWith shorter in-store product lifecycles, delivery reliability is more critical than ever before. A delivery delay of 1 or 2 weeks will strongly diminish sell-through performance if the overall planned lifecycle is only 8 weeks without any option to extend as following collection drops are already waiting to take the space on the shop floor. In this context, a reliable collaboration on both brand and supplier side will significantly increase importance and clearly dominate compared to short term FOB cost advantages."