"Segundo os dados publicados esta terça-feira pelo Banco de Portugal, o saldo conjunto das balanças corrente e de capital fixou-se em -1.231 milhões de euros, o que compara com -78 milhões de euros em igual período de 2018."
“it is perfectly possible to be both rational and wrong.
Logical ideas often fail because logic demands universally applicable laws but humans, unlike atoms, are not consistent enough in their behaviour for such laws to hold very broadly.
...
The drive to be rational has led people to seek political and economic laws that are akin to the laws of physics – universally true and applicable. The caste of rational decision makers requires generalisable laws to allow them confidently to pronounce on matters without needing to consider the specifics of the situation. And in reality ‘context’ is often the most important thing in determining how people think, behave and act: this simple fact dooms many universal models from the start. Because in order to form universal laws, naïve rationalists have to pretend that context doesn’t matter.
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Logic requires that people find universal laws, but outside of scientific fields, there are fewer of these than we might expect. And once human psychology has a role to play, it is perfectly possible for behaviour to become entirely contradictory.
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While in physics the opposite of a good idea is generally a bad idea, in psychology the opposite of a good idea can be a very good idea indeed: both opposites often work."
"For decades, retailers used catalogues — often hundreds of pages thick — to showcase their inventory and sell products via mail or telephone orders.
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But with the rise of e-commerce, catalogues fell out of favour.
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Marketers say they’ve started to see a rebound in the last couple years, mainly from online brands, which now fill the mailboxes of their millennial consumers. They see mailings as a low-cost alternative to advertising on search engines and social media, where costs have risen as more companies look for new customers online. Today’s iteration of catalogues are slimmer and less product-driven. Consumers are encouraged to purchase items online, often with a special discount code in the catalogue.
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“I think digital communications are starting to overwhelm people, and a well-designed piece of print advertisement can be an unexpected touchpoint,”
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Unlike the dense catalogues of the past, mailers today are shorter because there’s no longer a need to feature every single product a brand carries when the online shop is at a consumer’s fingertips.
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Many catalogues now look more like magazines, and some brands produce editorial content."
"If you can figure out how to embrace the true fans, they’ll go ahead and spread an idea–not because you want them to, but because they want to.E em Mongo isto vai ser cada vez mais verdade.
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Your ability to reach a tiny group of committed fans is essential. But the work spreads because of the fans, not because you figured out how to spend money to interrupt more and more strangers."
"So, when it comes to pricing, here's the most essential rule--the pricing rule that always produces both the most sales and the most profit:
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Never quote a price before the customer fully understands the benefit of buying.
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"The specific price varies depending on exactly what you order, how you pay for it, and so forth. I'm sure we can make an arrangement that will work for both of us, but in similar situations, companies like yours spend in the range of [low price] to [high price.]"
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The client goes "Whoa! That's way more than we can afford!" You win, because now you know this isn't a prospective client, so you can end the conversation without wasting more of your valuable time.
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Or the client nods and says something like, "Why such a large difference in price?" You continue with "it depends on exactly what you want to accomplish..." and segue back to talking about the benefits."
"The fast-moving-consumer-goods industry has a long history of generating reliable growth through mass brands. But the model that fueled industry success now faces great pressure as consumer behaviors shift and the channel landscape changes. To win in the coming decades, FMCGs need to reduce their reliance on mass brands and offline mass channels and embrace an agile operating model focused on brand relevance rather than synergies.
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Consumers under 35 differ fundamentally from older generations in ways that make mass brands and channels ill suited to them. They tend to prefer new brands, especially in food products. According to recent McKinsey research, millennials are almost four times more likely than baby boomers to avoid buying products from “the big food companies.”
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And while millennials are obsessed with research, they resist brand-owned marketing and look instead to learn about brands from each other. They also tend to believe that newer brands are better or more innovative, and they prefer not to shop in mass channels.
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Explosion of small brandsMany small consumer-goods companies are capitalizing on millennial preferences and digital marketing to grow very fast. These brands can be hard to spot because they are often sold online or in channels not covered by the syndicated data that the industry has historically relied on heavily.
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Retailers have also taken notice of these small brands. According to The Nielsen Company, US retailers are giving small brands double their fair share of new listings. The reason is twofold: retailers want small brands to differentiate their proposition and to drive their margins, as these small brands tend to be premium and rarely promote. As a consequence, small brands are capturing two to three times their fair share of growth while the largest brands remain flat or in slight decline"
"Ontem, em casa dos meus sogros vi uma boa hora da programação do Porto Canal. Numa reportagem sobre as inúmeras feiras que nesta altura se realizam em todo o Norte do país, a certa altura, numa feira transmontana, uma artesã dizia que não havia mercado para as suas colchas de linho... talvez haja, se calhar, deixou foi de frequentar estes espaços.
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Talvez precisasse de frequentar outras feiras, noutros países, talvez precisasse de divulgar os seus produtos na internet, talvez precisasse de aproveitar os meses de Verão para expor os seus produtos nas lotadas quintas de turismo rural que se multiplicam desde a Beira-Alta até Trás-os-Montes."
"Tecedeiras de Cerva conciliam a tradição do linho com a inovação de peças e acreditam que a participação na nova mala do designer Christian Louboutin vai ajudar a projetar esta arte ancestral de Ribeira de Pena.Pena que não haja um Portugal 2020 para apoiar um projecto de internacionalização desta realidade.
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Além da mala do designer francês, Fernanda Machado destacou a produção de toalhas de praia em linho que estão a exportar para os Estados Unidos da América (EUA) e também os tecidos que estão já a preparar para o desfile de moda que irá abrir a Feira do Linho de Ribeira de Pena, que se realiza no primeiro fim de semana de agosto."
“In theory, you can’t be too logical, but in practice, you can. Yet we never seem to believe that it is possible for logical solutions to fail. After all, if it makes sense, how can it possibly be wrong?Por que é que tantos académicos e comentadores previram o fim das PMEs? (recordar aqui e aqui, por exemplo) Porque o enquadramento lógico, o seu modelo ambiental, impedi-os de ver, ou de suspeitar que existiam alternativas. Quem as descobriu? Os livres de modelos mentais castradores (recordar aqui), os ignorantes e a sua vantagem (recordar aqui).
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Highly educated people don’t merely use logic; it is part of their identity. When I told one economist that you can often increase the sales of a product by increasing its price, the reaction was one not of curiosity but of anger.
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This book is not an attack on the many healthy uses of logic or reason, but it is an attack on a dangerous kind of logical overreach, which demands that every solution should have a convincing rationale before it can even be considered or attempted.
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We could never have evolved to be rational – it makes you weak.
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A rational leader suggests changing course to avoid a storm. An irrational one can change the weather.
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If you are wholly predictable, people learn to hack you."
“Evolution, too, is a haphazard process that discovers what can survive in a world where some things are predictable but others aren’t. It works because each gene reaps the rewards and costs from its lucky or unlucky mistakes, but it doesn’t care a damn about reasons. It isn’t necessary for anything to make sense: if it works it survives and proliferates; if it doesn’t, it diminishes and dies. It doesn’t need to know why it works – it just needs to work.”Trecho retirado de "Alchemy: Or, the Art and Science of Conceiving Effective Ideas That Logical People Will Hate" de Rory Sutherland.
"People often need to act and make decisions in situations in which causality is poorly understood, where there is considerable uncertainty and people hold different beliefs and have personal biases. However, people very reluctantly acknowledge that they face ambiguity at work. Problems in organizations tend to get labeled as lack of information. It feels more professional to try to solve a knowledge management problem that is called lack of information than a problem that is called confusion.Trechos retirados de "Confusion and ambiguity"
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The challenge is that managers often treat the existence of multiple views as a symptom of a weakness rather that as an accurate and needed barometer of uncertainty.
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The reality is not an objective set of arrangements outside us, but is continually constructed in daily interaction.
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Because any information can mean a variety of things, meaning cannot simply be discovered. Information does not help. We have to talk!...
situations are progressively clarified in iterative interaction. Our reality is an ongoing accomplishment that takes form when people together make sense of the situations in which they find themselves"
"It’s true that logic is usually the best way to succeed in an argument, but if you want to succeed in life it is not necessarily all that useful; entrepreneurs are disproportionately valuable precisely because they are not confined to doing only those things that make sense to a committee.
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When you demand logic, you pay a hidden price: you destroy magic. And the modern world, oversupplied as it is with economists, technocrats, managers, analysts, spreadsheet-tweakers and algorithm designers, is becoming a more and more difficult place to practise magic – or even to experiment with it.
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The human mind does not run on logic any more than a horse runs on petrol....
if we allow the world to be run by logical people, we will only discover logical things. But in real life, most things aren’t logical – they are psycho-logical.
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Similarly, if you expose every one of the world’s problems to ostensibly logical solutions, those that can easily be solved by logic will rapidly disappear, and all that will be left are the ones that are logic-proof – those where, for whatever reason, the logical answer does not work.
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More data leads to better decisions. Except when it doesn’t.
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The need to rely on data can also blind you to important facts that lie outside your model."
“There is a simple premise to this book: that while the modern world often turns its back on this kind of illogic, it is at times uniquely powerful. Alongside the inarguably valuable products of science and logic, there are also hundreds of seemingly irrational solutions to human problems just waiting to be discovered, if only we dare to abandon standard-issue, naïve logic in the search for answers.Para quem conhece este blogue e consegue recordar o conceito de tríade, um marcador que nasceu em Outubro de 2011 e que foi referido pela primeira vez no texto:
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Engineering doesn’t allow for magic. Psychology does.
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In our addiction to naïve logic, we have created a magic-free world of neat economic models, business case studies and narrow technological ideas, which together give us a wonderfully reassuring sense of mastery over a complex world. Often these models are useful, but sometimes they are inaccurate or misleading. And occasionally they are highly dangerous.
We should never forget that our need for logic and certainty brings costs as well as benefits. The need to appear scientific in our methodology may prevent us from considering other, less logical and more magical solutions, which can be cheap, fast-acting and effective. The mythical ‘butterfly effect’ does exist, but we don’t spend enough time butterfly hunting.”
"Podemos começar a listar os académicos, paineleiros e políticos portugueses (a tríade) que não conhecem alternativa ao preço mais baixo e aos salários baixos)"Para quem conhece este blogue e consegue recordar o conceito de Muggles, gente que não conhece a magia, "Temer o pior sempre que os Muggles se metem". Marcador nascido em Julho de 2011.
"E quando, aos 30 anos, deixam de ter a maminha da mamã, habituaram-se de tal maneira à maminha, que são já um caso perdido para o liberalismo. Agora, querem a maminha do Estado.Trecho retirado de "a maminha da mamã"
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Portugal é uma sociedade híper-protegida onde as pessoas se fazem à vida muito tarde, se é que alguma vez se fazem. São, literalmente, pessoas muito mimadas quando comparadas com as gentes do norte da Europa, onde o liberalismo nasceu (o liberalismo é a doutrina política que emergiu do protestantismo calvinista).
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É muito difícil fazer uma sociedade liberal com esta matéria-prima. Mas não se perde nada em tentar."
"Air France blamed increased competition from high speed rail and low-cost airlines as it announced 500 job cuts and said it would downsize its short haul operations.Se empresas com dinheiro e consultores pagos a peso de ouro não conseguem, acha que uma PME consegue?
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The airline said on Monday it would implement 465 voluntary redundancies over the next year. It also announced plans to cut its domestic network capacity by 15 per cent by 2021.
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The move comes as the carrier, part of the Air France-KLM group, looks to deal with “extremely fierce competition” in the sector."
"Não existem empresas perfeitas. Por isso, de cada vez que um inquérito de satisfação dos clientes conclui que somos bons... perdeu-se uma oportunidade de melhoria e reforçou-se o conformismo com o status-quo."Agora, relacionar isto com a parte I.
“The ASK Method starts with the desire to better understand your market at a deep emotional level so you can ultimately better sell and better serve your market. Knowing your market at this deep emotional level requires asking the right questions in the right way to understand what your most ideal potential customers want. Not what they think they want, not what they say they want, but what they really want. And most importantly, what they really want to buy.Julgo que a técnica proposta faz todo o sentido.
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People don’t know what they want. But they do know one thing, and that’s this: They do know what they don’t want. And therein lies the first clue to figuring out what to ask. The right questions are somewhat counterintuitive.
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what we call the SMIQ, which stands for Single Most Important Question, because as the name implies, this is your single most important question
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When it comes to X, what’s your single biggest challenge, frustration, or question you’ve been struggling with? (Please be as detailed and specific as possible.)
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Now, the reason for asking this question in this specific way, is because, as we now know, while people don’t know what they want, they do know what they don’t want.
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When you ask people this question, whether through a survey link created in a survey software like bucket.io designed for this very process, or through a simple Facebook post, you want the response format of this question to be open-ended—that is, they can write their response in their own words, as opposed to selecting one of several multiple choice options. The reason for keeping this question open-ended is that it’s all about discovering who the “hyper-responsive” potential customers are in your market—the people most motivated and interested and likely to spend money to solve the problem that you’re intending to solve. It’s about uncovering what natural language patterns these hyper-responsives use, so you can echo that language back in your marketing and messaging. It’s about identifying what makes the hyper-responsive people in your market different from everyone else so you can focus 100 percent of your effort on targeting and serving similar customers.
One of the ways in which you can identify hyper-responsives is, in part, by looking at the length of their response to your SMIQ. All things being equal, the person who gives a longer, more detailed, more passionate response to the question “What’s your single biggest frustration?” is more likely to spend money on a product that solves that frustration than the person who gives you a short one- or two-word answer.”
"Many investors lose sleep over "black swans" -- hard-to-predict events that cause chaos, like terror attacks or the bursting of the dot-com bubble.Nunca é se, é quando. Quando é que a maré muda. A maré muda sempre.
Now authorities in China are being urged to watch for "gray rhinos" -- obvious dangers that are often ignored anyway."(daqui)
"As exportações da indústria têxtil e do vestuário começam a tremer e fecharam o primeiro trimestre do ano a cair 0,9%, pressionadas pelo segmento do vestuário (-2%) e pelo desempenho negativo dos 4 maiores clientes da fileira: Espanha, França, Alemanha e Reino Unido, anunciou esta sexta-feira a ATP - AssociaçãoTêxtil e Vestuário de Portugal.E quando se escreve:
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Depois de bater três recordes consecutivos na exportação, para fechar 2018 nos 5,3 mil milhões de euros (+2%), o sector entrou em 2019 já de forma cautelosa.
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No seu conjunto, a fileira exportou 1,35 mil milhões de euros, menos 12 milhões de euros do que no ano anterior, e terminou o trimestre com um saldo positivo de 241 milhões de euros na balança comercial, o que se traduz numa taxa de cobertura de 122%.
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Com uma quota de 29,7% nas exportações da fileira têxtil, Espanha continua, assim, a estar sob o "efeito Inditex", o grupo que reúne marcas como a Zara, Pull&Bear, Bershka ou Massimo Dutti, é o maior cliente das têxteis do Vale do Ave e tem estado a desviar compras que fazia habitualmente no país, especialmente as encomendas de valor mais baixo, para outros destinos, designadamente a Turquia e Marrocos."
"No entanto, o esforço das empresas para diversificarem clientes e encontrarem alternativas à quebra de Espanha está a ter resultados positivos em dois destinos do top 10 do ranking das exportações do sector, com os Estados Unidos a protagonizarem a maior subida (+14,8% ou 11 milhões de euros)"Há que ter cuidado, os Estados Unidos são um mercado de preço:
"É que o mercado dos EUA "é um dos mais sensíveis em relação ao preço, mesmo em produtos de valor acrescentado"Tempo para parar para pensar, tempo para reflectir no que cortar, tempo para reflectir no que focar, tempo para lançar novas sementes, tempo para testar novos caminhos.
"O objetivo é criar um modelo económico "diferente, que permita às pessoas viver e não matar, incluir e não excluir, humanizar e não desumanizar, cuidar da Criação e não depredar", num evento que gere "um pacto" para mudar a economia atual."(1)Mongo é a fuga ao vómito industrial e a ascensão do trabalhador-artista.
"What gave German industry another lease of life was how globalisation increased demand for German machinery and how it led to integrated global supply chains. I admit I did not see the supply-chain effect when I predicted the demise of the German economic model over a decade ago.(1) - Trecho retirado de "Papa aos jovens: novo modelo económico deve “incluir e não excluir, humanizar e não desumanizar”"
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New trends may intrude that would extend the lifespan of the growth model further. But Mr Macron is ultimately right. It is going to end — “perhaps”, as he wisely added."
“Rory’s Rules of AlchemyTrecho retirado de "Alchemy: Or, the Art and Science of Conceiving Effective Ideas That Logical People Will Hate" de Rory Sutherland.
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The opposite of a good idea can also be a good idea. [Moi ici: Como não relacionar com o teste do algodão de uma estratégia - "and it's not stupid"]
Don’t design for average. [Moi ici: Como não relacionar com "Justin Bieber e o preço da diferença" - na semana passada usei esta estória de 2010 duas ou três vezes ]
It doesn’t pay to be logical if everyone else is being logical. [Moi ici: Como não relacionar com a segunda lei da teoria dos jogos "Rational choice, chosing a dominant strategy, can lead to outcomes that suck"]
The nature of our attention affects the nature of our experience.
A flower is simply a weed with an advertising budget.
The problem with logic is that it kills off magic. [Moi ici: Como não recordar a tríade e a sua incapacidade de ver o poder da magia... chamo-lhes de Muggles]
A good guess which stands up to observation is still science. So is a lucky accident. [Moi ici: Como não recordar "A vantagem dos ignorantes"]
Test counterintuitive things only because no one else will.
Solving problems using rationality is like playing golf with only one club.
Dare to be trivial.
If there were a logical answer, we would have found it.”
"Step 1: Spend Time Talking to the End UserMost businesses classify themselves as business-to-business (b2b) operations, meaning they don’t sell to the end users of their product. Yet these businesses would benefit from interacting personally with the end users.
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Take YouTube. ...
While the YouTube team knows it is critical to be well-connected to the needs of the “business” customers who pay them, they also spend time directly with their end users, attending events like the annual VidCon conference.Uma provocação para todos os que esquecem os "end users".
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Step 2: Spend More Time with the Customer Than Your CompetitionWhen it comes to understanding your customers, spending quality time with them is important—but spending “quantity time” matters even more. Decision makers who spend enough time seeing the day-to-day lives and challenges of their customers have a level of understanding that staged drop-ins cannot provide. In addition, they get the “credit” that comes from being the supplier that is willing to walk in its customers’ shoes.
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Step 3: Watch Consumers Buy Your Product Before consumers can use your products, they usually have to purchase them. There are many insights that can be gained from watching consumers as they attempt to do this.
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Step 4: Watch Consumers Use Your ProductObserving consumers as they use your product or receive your service is the perfect chance to understand which features create value, which ones are never used, and which ones actually get in the way.
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Step Five: Engage End Users as Product Designers Finally, consider putting your customers to work. Stop seeing them as research subjects and instead begin to see them as partners in product development.
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A Word of WarningToday, businesses have more data than ever. While this is in many ways a great thing, it also creates a dangerous temptation to spend hours and hours analyzing spreadsheets, and runs the risk of confusing quantification for true understanding.
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Big consumer firms are experiencing the dangerous downside of being insulated from the consumer."
"The value proposition of the overall supply chain is the same as that of the company that is facing the end customer."Quem estuda, quem interage com o end-user tem um trunfo importante!
"For most small business, cash reserves are a critical tool for meeting liquidity needs. Cash reserves provide a readily available means to pay employees and suppliers in normal times and are an important buffer to draw upon during adverse times. This is particularly true for small businesses with limited access to credit and other sources of liquidity. In other words, cash reserves are a key measure of the vitality and security of a small business."(1)
"The question for these executives, then, isn’t whether to prepare, it’s how to prepare.Cuidado com as previsões que ouve ou lê. Quantas pessoas em 15 de Setembro de 2007 ousavam escrever este marcador "desde que ouvi o ministro pinho dizer que a crise financeira não afectará a economia...,"
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What did the resilient companies do differently?[Moi ici: Durante a última recessão]
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They weren’t protected from the market because they had better products or services. In fact, most of the resilient companies lost nearly as much revenue as industry peers during the recession; the outliers were from a few sectors that didn’t experience the downturn as strongly.
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But by the time the recession had reached its lowest point in 2009, the resilients had increased their EBITDA by 10%, on average, while industry peers had lost nearly 15%. The resilients seem to have accomplished this by reducing operating costs earlier in the recession cycle, and more deeply. By the first quarter of 2008, the resilients had already cut operating costs 1% compared with the year before, even as their sector year-on-year costs were growing by a similar amount. The resilients maintained and expanded their cost lead as the recession moved toward its trough, improving their earnings advantage in seven out of the eight quarters during 2008 and 2009.
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Their willingness to move early made the resilient companies far more likely to successfully weather economic shock. As the effects of the downturn became more and more apparent, resilient companies focused on building more flexibility into their investment-planning and operations in addition to pursuing continued earnings expansion. By the time the economy was in full-on recession, the resilients had reduced their debt by more than $1 for every $1 of total capital on their balance sheet.
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Even as the debate about “when” continues among economic forecasters, companies should begin to prepare themselves for the next recession. To assure some measure of resiliency, they should start now to assess the degree of exposure they have to slowdown, identify initiatives that can help to mitigate the exposure, and establish a “nerve center” to monitor progress on those initiatives."
"O país descobriu agora pela reação do PS - o PSD e CDS já sabiam por experiência própria - que a austeridade é o nosso caminho coletivo para os próximos anos. Infelizmente esta vai ser só para alguns: para os que não têm força reivindicativa como os contribuintes [Moi ici: contribuintes líquidos, os saxões do costume] (comprovando a lei da Olson), porque são muitos. Os pequenos grupos de interesse - armadilhados ou não com substâncias explosivas, o sindicalismo estatal e o capitalismo de Estado e compadrio - sobrevivem sempre à falta de coragem governativa reformista.
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o socialismo é e sempre será um beco sem saída. O património real e o rendimento anual duma nação são as limitações da vida coletiva e individual.
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O socialismo assume temporariamente para manter o poder que é preciso devolver rendimentos (isto é a vida e a liberdade ao cidadão, comprovando as tesas liberais sobre o Estado por portas travessas), ainda que não os tenha. Por isso, o socialismo é sempre mais original e criativo com mais um imposto, umas taxas ou um emprestimozinho apresentado sempre na comunicação social como tendo a melhor taxa de juro (parecendo que o Governo ganha sempre e os credores perdem...).
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A evolução na continuidade será sempre um erro político neste país com um povo e uma história nobres: mas sabemos que só a adversidade nos obriga a mudar, ou um Governo que não se negue a construir um Estado inteligente para o séc. XXI. Este Estado constitucional tornou-se bafiento e geracionalmente irresponsável."
"Risk can be viewed as the combination of the probability of an event and the impact of its consequences. Events with a negative impact represent risks that can prevent value creation or erode existing value. In order to deliver value to our stakeholders we must understand the types of risks faced by our organization and address them appropriately.
Generally, risks to the Company’s success can be grouped into four categories: (1) Strategic, (2) Operational, (3) Compliance and (4) Financial & Reporting. Specific examples of each type of risk are included in the table below.
Our J&J Enterprise Risk Management Framework is made up of six process components
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Objectives are set by the Executive Committee in alignment with our strategic framework and are cascaded throughout the organization.
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“Remember that this is your single most important decision as an entrepreneur: Who are you going to serve? What market are you going to enter? It’s worth spending time here. In the end, your future business will be all the better for it because you took the time to scrutinize your ideas from every angle and eliminate the ones that won’t lead to a viable market choice. Be committed to the tightest, strongest business idea possible. If you do this, you’re setting yourself up to be that much more likely to succeed.Trechos retirados de “Choose” de Ryan Levesque.
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choosing your market isn’t like choosing what froyo flavor you want in your cup. This decision creates many more ripples in your life, and knowing that tends to drum up some profound emotions at both ends of the spectrum. In the entrepreneurial world, we don’t like to talk about this much because it feels like inviting or admitting weakness, but the reality is that entrepreneurship is emotional. I don’t want to be one who downplays your emotions as you come to this big decision.”
Pena que o Mário Cortes se tenha escondido.o contribuinte é o saxão parvo do costume que alomba com todas as bandarilhas impostais pic.twitter.com/eITA0VeLxR— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) April 4, 2019
"O controlo das contas públicas previsto pelo Governo até 2023 vai continuar a depender do aumento das receitas com impostos e contribuições, diz o Conselho das Finanças Públicas, que antecipa uma subida destas receitas acima do aumento previsto para as despesas rígidas do Estado. A receita adicional vai permitir pagar o aumento de 9,4 mil milhões de euros nas despesas com pessoal e prestações sociais" (1)
"“Se, por ora, é possível acomodar, em previsão, estes aumentos nominais em resultado do crescimento superior previsto para o PIB nominal, não é garantido que essa capacidade acomodatícia se mantenha no futuro próximo“, avisa."(2)Os saxões, aka contribuintes líquidos, que paguem.
"How many balls can you keep in the air at one time? Some business leaders are better jugglers than others, but everyone has their breaking point—or, rather, their dropping point.Recordar "Jongleurs" - Precisam-se (parte II)"
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Juggling priorities is a challenge for every business owner. You’re overwhelmed with business development and all the things you need to do to attract and retain customers. Whether you’re a solopreneur, salesperson, or CEO of a small business, you feel the constant push/pull between prospecting, working with existing customers, managing social media, and staying in touch with everyone (which can seem like an unending task).
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I know it’s tricky to take your head out of the weeds long enough to work on the business when you’re so busy working in your business. The problem is, if you don’t make the time, you won’t have a business.
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Whatever you decide for your business, stay focused on the future.
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As the CEO, you’re the futurist of your business, and the product of a futurist’s work is foresight."
"Esta abordagem pode ser fortalecida reforçando as relações entre a empresa e as universidades e politécnicos. Estas escolas fornecem os futuros prescritores e os futuros quadros dos empreiteiros. Desenvolver uma relação em que a empresa reforça a sua imagem de líder tecnológico, de solucionador de problemas, de inventor de novos produtos, de autoridade técnica."Eis um exemplo de aplicação desta abordagem, "Vapesol lança concurso para jovens criadores de calçado":
"Nesta primeira edição da Academia Vapesol, devem os candidatos apresentar um projeto de design de calçado, masculino ou feminino, para a temporada outono/inverno 20/21 e o respetivo protótipo, os quais devem integrar solas da coleção da Vapesol. A iniciativa conta com a participação dos alunos finalistas da Escola Profissional de Felgueiras, do Centro de Formação Profissional da Indústria do Calçado (polos de S. João da Madeira e Felgueiras) e do Instituto Politécnico do Cávado e do Ave.
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Os prémios atribuídos pela Academia Vapesol são, para o grande vencedor, um prémio pecuniário de 1.000 euros, uma viagem a Milão com estadia e um convite para a feira Lineapelle agendada para os dias 2, 3 e 4 de outubro próximo. Já o segundo classificado tem direito uma viagem a Milão, também com estadia, e um convite para a mesma Lineapelle."
"For many companies, the traditional path to value creation is simply too narrow, centered on driving efficiencies rather than growth and innovation. Creating new value often requires employers to think differently about work in three ways:Parece um texto retirado deste blogue ...
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The objective of work becomes expanding value, not delivering scalable efficiency.
The work itself entails addressing unseen problems and opportunities, not executing routine tasks.
The work draws on human capabilities such as imagination, intuition, curiosity, creativity, and empathy—not on skills tied to a particular task or technology.[Moi ici: Recordem os profetas do Armagedão provocado pela automatização]
With this broader view, companies can move beyond a focus on efficiency—and beyond growth driven by M&A and market share—and aim to create new forms of customer value. Organizations can do this by looking for ways to create additional meaning for the customer. This typically starts by deeply understanding customers’ needs and aspirations, now and in the future—and deep understanding requires more than just soliciting customer feedback or monitoring net promoter scores. Because these needs and aspirations are limitless and rapidly evolving, there is always more value that companies can create for customers."
"The experts were, by and large, horrific forecasters. Their areas of specialty, years of experience, and (for some) access to classified information made no difference. They were bad at short-term forecasting and bad at long-term forecasting. They were bad at forecasting in every domain. When experts declared that future events were impossible or nearly impossible, 15 percent of them occurred nonetheless. When they declared events to be a sure thing, more than one-quarter of them failed to transpire.Trechos retirados de "The Peculiar Blindness of Experts"
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Even faced with their results, many experts never admitted systematic flaws in their judgment. When they missed wildly, it was a near miss; if just one little thing had gone differently, they would have nailed it. “There is often a curiously inverse relationship,” Tetlock concluded, “between how well forecasters thought they were doing and how well they did.”
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Hedgehogs are deeply and tightly focused. Some have spent their career studying one problem. ...
Foxes, meanwhile, “draw from an eclectic array of traditions, and accept ambiguity and contradiction,” Tetlock wrote. Where hedgehogs represent narrowness, foxes embody breadth.
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Incredibly, the hedgehogs performed especially poorly on long-term predictions within their specialty. They got worse as they accumulated experience and credentials in their field. The more information they had to work with, the more easily they could fit any story into their worldview.
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Unfortunately, the world’s most prominent specialists are rarely held accountable for their predictions, so we continue to rely on them even when their track records make clear that we should not."
"Economistas ouvidos pelo Expresso apontam, em média, para uma taxa de desemprego de 6,5% no primeiro trimestre deste ano, o que compara com 6,7% nos últimos três meses de 2018. A confirmar-se, será o valor mais baixo desde 2004"E comparem com "Taxa de desemprego sobe pela primeira vez em três anos":
"No primeiro trimestre de 2019, a taxa de desemprego foi 6,8%, acaba de divulgar o Instituto Nacional de Estatística, registando uma subida de 0,1 pontos percentuais (p.p.) face ao trimestre anterior, mas também uma descida de 1,1 pontos percentuais face ao período homólogo, o primeiro trimestre de 2018. A subida trimestral acontece pela primeira vez desde o primeiro trimestre de 2016."[Moi ici: Recordar "Acerca do desemprego"]A maré já mudou, agora só está a ser atenuada pela boleia demográfica.
"If you took your entire view of the human race from primetime advertising alone, you’d see a society without old people. They don’t work, they don’t drink beer, they don’t drive cars."E recuo a Dezembro de 2006... e recordo este mapa:
turn, turn, turn— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) May 7, 2019
os que acham que a economia é uma ciência newtonia, independente do contexto, vão ter mais uma lição que vão esquecer logo a seguir. é um perigo que gente sem skin in the game vomite leis com tanta facilidadehttps://t.co/zzU6SqgkMM
“Art is anything that’s better than it needs to be.”Arte e eficiência não conjugam bem
"Fashion retail is undergoing dramatic change – digital channels, fast fashion, and a surge of discount campaigns are all causing retailers discomfort.
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In order to succeed in this difficult market environment, brand manufacturers must deploy their resources in the most targeted way possible. The most important step is to invest in productive trade relationships. Only by securing the right partners in brick-and-mortar and online retail and by strengthening customer relationships with them will manufacturers be able to grow in tandem with successful retailers.
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So who are the right retail partners? Not every customer is the same. For example, the hip concept stores found in big cities differ significantly, in terms of sales structures and potential, from the traditional fashion boutiques of smaller towns. Hence, it doesn't pay off to invest the same amount in every customer relationship. In order to identify which partners are most strategically important, customer segmentation needs to be conducted. The only way for manufacturers to set the correct priorities is to understand their customers in detail, including all their strengths and weaknesses.
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In addition to raw figures, fashion manufacturers need to monitor qualitative aspects, such as influencer potential, location, competitive positioning, and collaboration, to determine the strategic importance of their retail customers. These rating criteria need to be used to assess both online and offline retailers. For brick-and-mortar stores, a good location in a shopping area is essential, while the equivalent in online retail is a top Google ranking or a large number of unique visits. The interplay between all these criteria determines the overall customer value. When evaluating retailers, it is important not to assess chain stores as single entities – the situation of individual locations has to be considered!"
"(Low price is the last refuge of leadership that doesn’t have the guts to make a great product and tell a true story to the right people)
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Because you’re selling to the wrong people…Choose your customers, choose your future.
(Some customers want to pay more than others, and some customers want to get more—of something—than others)"
o capitalismo transformando 5 reais em 550 em 27 segundos pic.twitter.com/8u99D04HDs— enxadrista burguês (@deonvidi) May 3, 2019
"As soon, however, as one shifts from the axiom of an unchanging, self-contained, closed economy to Schumpeter's dynamic, growing, moving, changing economy, what is called profit is on longer immoral. It becomes a moral imperative. Indeed, the question then is no longer the question that agitated the classicists and still agitated Keynes: How can the economy be structured to minimize the bribe of the functionless surplus called profit that has to be handed over to the capitalist to keep the economy going?.The question in Schumpeter's economics is always, Is there sufficient profit? Is there adequate capital formation to provide for the costs of the future, the costs of staying in business, the costs of "creative destruction"?This alone makes Schumpeter's economic model the only one that can serve as the starting point for the economic policies we need. Clearly the Keynesian - or classicist - treatment of innovation as being "outside," and in fact peripheral to, the economy and with minimum impact on it, can no longer be maintained (if it ever could have been). The basic question of economic theory and economic policy, especially in highly developed countries, is clearly: How can capital formation and productivity be maintained so that rapid technological change as well as employment can be sustained? What is the minimum profit needed to defray the costs of the future? What is the minimum profit needed, above all, to maintain jobs and to create new ones?"...BTW, "And it is a total fallacy that, as Keynes implies, optimising the short term creates the right long-term future."Trecho registado aqui no blogue em 2010 em "Lucro: O custo do futuro"
"Salespeople and some of their leaders believe they can pitch everyone and win new business, and there is a growing cottage industry on LinkedIn of salespeople who are taught and trained to write a four-paragraph pitch with a link to their calendar to strangers, without targeting, and without any indication that the person might be right for their service or solution...Estão a ver o problema de não saber que são os clientes-alvo, de tratar os clientes como miudagem?
It’s easy to increase your activity by pitching more people faster, and you can deceive yourself into believing that you are efficient. Efficiency is measured by the energy expended to produce a specific result, not the elimination of effort and energy without a result. To believe that you are efficient when you try to make selling easy, you have to refuse to look at the wasted energy and effort.
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Most of the effort expended in trying to make selling easier would be better spent in increasing your effectiveness."
"Ontem, tive acesso a números de uma empresa que me fizeram recuar ao meu tempo de "catequista" no SNS a tentar converter índios que não queriam ser convertidos (em que traduzia o número anual de infecções em cesarianas não programadas em dias extra de internamento e, depois, esses dias extra em custo extra)."E porque é que aconteciam as infecções em cesarianas não programadas? Bastou ver um gráfico com o nº de infecções ao longo do ano:
A máquina de validar o andante está avariada há um mês em General Torres. Agora pagam a alguém para fazer de máquina e validar os passes.— Jorge Félix Cardoso 🇪🇺 (@jfelixcardoso) May 3, 2019
Depois queixem-se que alguns querem privatizar tudo. Nestes momentos também não me falta vontade pic.twitter.com/fPGy16tIYM
"Há a ilusão do poder: o exercício do poder conduz a situações em que as consequências das decisões geram resultados muito diferentes dos esperados. A pluralidade das intenções e dos objectivos condena ao fracasso os que acreditam que o exercício do poder é a imposição da sua vontade unilateral e descobrem, demasiado tarde, que o exercício do poder é a coordenação e mobilização das vontades dos outros para a concretização dos objectivos possíveis, nessas circunstâncias e com esses recursos. Há as ilusões do fim: antecedem o colapso de um regime político que pretende estender a sua continuidade para além do seu campo de possibilidades, desencadeando uma ruptura que destrói o que acumulou no passado e reduz o horizonte de construção do futuro. E há o fim das ilusões: é o que se vê no nosso presente."Como não relacionar isto com a parte I.
