"gross generalities about macro trends and underlying economics"

Há muitos anos que escrevo sobre a importância de trabalhar para clientes-alvo e não para a média do mercado.

Recordo o uso do termo: miudagem.

Por isso foi engraçado encontrar no capítulo 6 “The Future Will Not Be Evenly Distributed” do livro “Remarkable Retail” este trecho:

"Once the dust settles, we can tote up the winners and losers on the corporate side, but it will be clear that consumers throughout most of the world will have realized more choice, lower prices, and improved convenience that we could scarcely imagine even five years ago. It’s almost like a welfare program for consumers, rich or poor. On average, it’s all good.
But if you find much actionable data in the fact that the average person living today has one breast and one testicle, then continue your focus on industry market-share averages, broad conclusions about “the customer,” and gross generalities about macro trends and underlying economics."

"start with a specific customer example"

"Although strategy is about the big picture, strategic thinking often starts in the weeds. To think about strategy, start with a specific customer example (a “use case”) and ask: How can we make money from this customer? Now change an assumption and see whether the answer changes. This is what good thinking involves: evaluating hypotheticals and pivoting from one hypothetical to another. At this stage, you are not looking for the best solution. What you are looking for are the boundaries that identify where your company can compete effectively (and where it cannot)."

Este trecho saltou-me logo aos olhos...

Por um lado, é o começar do particular, do concreto para o abstracto. Por outro lado, é o fugir da miudagem, é o fugir dos fantasmas estatísticos e dos substantivos colectivos, e olhar na menina-do-olho.

Trecho retirado de "The Lost Art of Thinking in Large Organizations" de Duncan Simester, publicado no Verão de 2016 pela MIT Sloan Management Review.

"niche retailers with strong identities"

Tão interessante, tão em sintonia com a visão de Mongo como um mundo de tribos de interesses assimétricos, tão de acordo com "tu não és do meu sangue", tão de acordo com a ambivalência face a Bieber. Ninguém quer ser tratado como plancton. Trechos retirados de "The global village needs walls":

"Facebook has been a giant experiment in understanding humanity. It has proven that we actually don’t want to be part of a global community — we are instead a species of small groups and tribes. If you’re part of everything, you’re not invested in anything, and that feels bad. “Everyone, no exception, must have a tribe, an alliance with which to jockey for power and territory, to demonize the enemy, to organize rallies, and raise flags,”
...
So what does this mean for business? For one, it creates an opening for a smorgasbord of social networks and social businesses.
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“There should be social networks around every conceivable interest,” [Moi ici: Como não recordar o que escrevi, ao arrepio do mainstream, sobre as plataformas universais, não é winner-take-all]
...
“The really exciting model is not one company to rule them all, but distributed companies and distributed wealth and revenue, and a social experience built around these supernodes,” said Bianchini, whose company is making a big bet that we’re headed in this direction. Some recent trends seem to bear it out. The number of niche social networks is exploding,
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Such fracturing of the online world is a headwind even Amazon will eventually have to battle. The bigger Amazon gets, the less it feels like it connects with your personal identity — even with algorithms that figure out what you’re most likely to buy.[Moi ici: Recordar o que escrevo sobre o big data e a miudagem]
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Just as microbrews stole customers from giant, least-common-denominator brands such as Budweiser, niche retailers with strong identities are likely to be more of a challenge to Amazon than some other centralized behemoth.[Moi ici: O que escrevo neste blogue desde sempre... cuidado com os gurus da Junqueira]"

Cuidado com a miudagem!

"Salespeople and some of their leaders believe they can pitch everyone and win new business, and there is a growing cottage industry on LinkedIn of salespeople who are taught and trained to write a four-paragraph pitch with a link to their calendar to strangers, without targeting, and without any indication that the person might be right for their service or solution...
It’s easy to increase your activity by pitching more people faster, and you can deceive yourself into believing that you are efficient. Efficiency is measured by the energy expended to produce a specific result, not the elimination of effort and energy without a result. To believe that you are efficient when you try to make selling easy, you have to refuse to look at the wasted energy and effort.
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Most of the effort expended in trying to make selling easier would be better spent in increasing your effectiveness."

Estão a ver o problema de não saber que são os clientes-alvo, de tratar os clientes como miudagem?

Trechos retirados de "The Problem with Wanting Sales to Be Easy"

Passos para construir um plano estratégico

Um texto em linha com o que escrevemos aqui há milhares de anos, "6 Steps to Make Your Strategic Plan Really Strategic":

"Step one is to recognize your dependencies, i.e. your key stakeholders. [Moi ici: Qual é o ecossistema?]
...
The trick is to identify stakeholder roles. The same group of stakeholders can occupy more than one role.
...
An essential second step, and one that I’ve been guilty of not stressing enough with clients, comes with the word “target.” It’s vitally important to identify your “target customer” before moving forward. [Moi ici: Não é miudagem, são os clientes-alvo, é olhar olhos nos olhos]
...
Isolating the target customer has massive implications, including in other stakeholder groups. ... Your strategic plan can’t be all things to all customers. So, take your time here to clearly define your target customer.
...
The third step requires you to work out what your organization wants from each key stakeholder group for your organization to prosper. [Moi ici: O que procuramos e valorizamos e o que temos de dar aos outros, porque procuram e valorizam - win-win]
...

The fourth step is to identify what these stakeholder groups want from you. These are the key decision-making criteria that stakeholders use when interacting with your business. For example, these might include the factors influencing the decision to purchase from you (customers), work for you (employees), supply to you (suppliers) or invest in you (shareholders).
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It’s essential that you know how each stakeholder group thinks about these — that you focus on their point of view, not your own.
...
Strategy design, your fifth step, involves deciding what your organization’s positions will be on the identified strategic factors for each key stakeholder group. This is shaped by the objectives you’ve set for your organization and the knowledge you’ve gleaned about your stakeholders’ current and future needs on strategic factors. This is where “focus” again delivers in spades.
...
The sixth step is continuous improvement. Recognize that no matter what you decide, there is no certainty in the result once you embark on implementation via an action plan and scorecard."

"Identify your core market of primary customers"

Uma mensagem ainda mais antiga que este blogue. Um marcador dos primeiros tempos: Julho de 2007; Março de 2008:

“For firms that have truly made the shift to the customer-driven mindset, here are some of the practices that tend to emerge.
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1. Target. Identify your core market of primary customers. Delighting this group is important so that you have a resilient customer base. Trying to satisfy everyone at the outset practically guarantees average products and services that will not delight anyone. Careful choices need to be made in terms of where to put one’s efforts."

Como eu gosto da imagem deste postal de 2008:

Excerto de: Stephen Denning. “The Age of Agile”

"who don’t focus"

"Many salespeople fail to develop new business because they’re wandering aimlessly. Too often, they’re not locked in on a strategically selected, focused list of target customers or prospects.
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Sometimes they fail because they don’t invest the time and brain power to ensure they are calling on the right accounts. Even the best talent will have a hard time succeeding if their efforts are directed in the wrong direction. However, more common than flat-out calling on the wrong list are salespeople who don’t focus on the list they have. Salespeople are famous for lack of discipline and losing focus. They attempt to call on an account (once), but don’t get anywhere. Instead of sharpening their weapons and continuing to attack the same strategically selected targets, they turn and pursue a new set of prospects. This constant change of direction becomes their death knell because they never gain traction against the defined target set.
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In my personal sales experience and what I’ve seen from other top performers, new business success usually results from a combination of perseverance, creativity, and resilience while staying laser-focused on a well-chosen, finite list of target prospects."

Trecho retirado de "New Sales.Simplified" de Mike Weiberg.

Especialistas versus generalistas

"As we’ve previously discussed in analyses of startups unbundling Procter & Gamble, unbundling the bank, or even unbundling PetSmart, emerging companies often focus on tackling specific categories or verticals, rather than attacking incumbents broadly (hence the term “unbundling”)."

Lindo! Belo!
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Os "Salami slicers" e "A sua empresa tem cada vez menos espaço para ser um Bruce Jenner" a funcionar. A propósito da Procter & Gamble recordar a série "Porque não somos plankton (parte V)"

Trecho retirado de "Disrupting The Auto Industry: The Startups That Are Unbundling The Car"

"the death of average"

Sabem o que escrevemos, o que prevemos aqui há muitos anos?
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O advento de Mongo, o advento do Estranhistão, o horror cada vez maior que os clientes têm em serem tratados como plankton, como mais um no meio da massa, da mole.
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Lembram-se do que escrevo aqui há muitos anos sobre a miudagem e os fantasmas estatísticos?
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Lembram-se que acredito que as PME podem ter alguma vantagem vantagem face aos Golias que apenas confiam no Big Data e não pensam em cada cliente como um ser único?
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Este vídeo tem alguns segmentos cheios de sumo:

Por exemplo:

"This idea of how you will deliver [Moi ici: Não quero mas vou passar por picuinhas, não é "deliver" é "co-create"] value will be different. And value will be for individuals not for segments.
...
The best is the micro-segment.
...
You will see the death of average ... and instead you will see an era of YOU"

Só me faz espécie é isto ser preferido pela CEO da IBM uma empresa que tem feito tantas asneiras nos últimos, uma empresa que não encontra nada melhor para o seu dinheiro do que comprar as suas próprias acções.

Despedir clientes

Recordar a curva de Stobachoff:

Recordar que os clientes não são todos iguais. Por isso escrevo sobre os clientes-alvo, sobre a miudagem e sobre os fantasmas estatísticos.
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Recordar o que escrevi recentemente sobre uma das lições que o calçado nos dá: saber que encomendas recusar.
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Assim, faz todo o sentido este tipo de actuação "Three Reasons to Fire a Customer":

"Shipping and logistics giant UPS reported its quarterly earnings last week. Results were good and the stock jumped. One reason UPS did well is that it dropped several large customers.
...
In some cases, however, the best thing you can do to build your business is fire a few customers. Every customer is not a good customer. Every order is not a good order.
...
A good relationship is a win-win. If you are losing money with a particular customer, there has to be something compelling to justify continuing the exchange. Otherwise, it is best to spend your time with more profitable opportunities.
...
You want to deal with customers who are consistent with your brand, or at least customers who don’t weaken your brand equity.
...
Some customers simply don’t value what you provide. They may want something else, or they may be completely focused on price. If this is the case, you should consider ending the relationship.
...
Dropping a customer is not an easy decision, but it is often the best move. Smart marketers know when to walk away."

BTW, em sintonia com a abordagem que propusemos nesta "Curiosidade do dia"

Cuidado com a média

Há muitos anos que escrevo no blogue e falo nas empresas sobre a miudagem e os fantasmas estatísticos:

"At some point in your company’s growth, someone will utter the most pernicious phrase in business: “The average customer.”
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There is no such thing.
...
Not only do average customers not exist, they also don’t matter. It is more valuable to identify the best customers (the ones who spend more and promote your business to other people) and the worst customers (so that you can convert them to promoters or fire them).
...
How do you avoid the average trap?
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By continuing to have one-on-one conversations with your customers, even as their numbers grow. Keeping the voice of real customers alive in the business means keeping it in front of managers and executives just as much as front-line employees.
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Aggregated data distilled into averages won’t cut it. [Moi ici: Cuidado com o Big Data] Everyone in the company needs regular, recent customer feedback that includes verbatim comments about individual transactions. And when customers offer their precious time to provide those comments, managers and executives should call them back and close the loop."

Trechos retirados de "Why There Is No Such Thing as an ‘Average Customer’"

Mais sintomas do fim do regime 1984

Ontem, a minha manhã começou cedo e com este retweet:

More Mongo RT @nntaleb: The good news with VW is that those suckers who still trusted corporations will be more skeptical.

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) September 23, 2015

Depois, ao final do dia li "Death and transfiguration":

"Today’s corporate empires comprehend every corner of the earth. They battle their rivals with legions of highly trained managers. They keep local politicians in line with a promise of an investment here or a job as a consultant there.
...
Corporate profits more than tripled in 1980-2013, rising from 7.6% of global GDP to 10%, of which Western companies captured more than two-thirds. The after-tax profits of American firms are at their highest level as a share of national income since 1929.
...
The golden age of the Western corporation, they argue, was the product of two benign developments: the globalisation of markets and, as a result, the reduction of costs.
...
Now a more difficult era is beginning. More than twice as many multinationals are operating today as in 1990, making for more competition. Margins are being squeezed and the volatility of profits is growing. The average variance in returns to capital for North American firms is more than 60% higher today than it was in 1965-1980. MGI predicts that corporate profits may fall from 10% of global GDP to about 8% in a decade’s time.
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Two things in particular are shaking up the comfortable world of the old imperial multinationals. The first is the rise of emerging-market competitors.
...
The second factor is the rise of high-tech companies in both the West and the East. These firms have acquired large numbers of customers in the blink of an eye.[Moi ici: O tal poder das plataformas da primeira geração]
...
Such firms can also provide smaller companies with a low-cost launching pad that allows them to compete in the global market.
...
The relative decline of the Western corporation could also lead to a rethinking of some of the long-standing assumptions about what makes for a successful business. Public companies may lose ground to other types of firm"

Conseguem recordar e juntar as peças do mosaico que temos trazido para aqui ao longo dos tempos?

• Mongo, o Estranhistão e as suas tribos apaixonadas;
• Clientes que não querem ser tratados como plankton;
• Fugir da miudagem e dos fantasmas estatísticos;
• O fim do eficientismo e de Magnitograd;
• O poder das plataformas e como mudam a fricção que Coase identificou como sendo a base para a justificação da empresa do século XX;
• Os rouxinóis de MacArthur;

Vamos viver tempos interessantes, tempos muito mais para piratas do que para marinheiros de uniforme com visão analítica e racional.

O Estranhistão vai ser um local muito mais colorido do que o Normalistão.

Cuidado com a média

Recordando o grito dos clientes que não querem ser tratados como plankton, que não querem ser tratados como miudagem.
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Recordando os fantasmas estatísticos.
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Reflectir sobre:

"One of the biggest mistakes companies can make is designing services and products for the average user, an artificial and static representation of real users that generates dysfunctions. Interestingly, the solution lies in the extremes.
...
The average user is created from the combination of all users. What we get is, in fact, a completely different user. None of our users is like the average user. Therefore, when designing for that artificial individual we create something that doesn’t fit anyone’s needs."

Trecho retirado de "Designing for the extremes (or why your average user doesn’t exist)"

Porque não somos plankton (parte V)

Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV.
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E continua a venda de activos da P&G, "Procter & Gamble Agrees To Sell 43 Beauty Brands For $12.5 Billion"

“Who is our customer?”

"Customer Confusion
Ask 10 random people in your organization “Who is our customer?” How many different answers would you get? Ideally, the answer is the same. There is only one customer. Your strategy, resources and goals and objectives must be aligned around a singularly defined customer.[Moi ici: Um dos temas mais queridos neste blogue, a importância fundamental de definir quem são os clientes-alvo. Ao longo dos anos marcadores como: clientes-alvo; miudagem, fantasmas estatísticos. É fundamental perceber quem são os clientes-alvo, para poder desenhar uma proposta de valor talhada para os servir]
...
A lack of clarity and alignment about the customer leads to confusion and uncertainty about critical organizational priorities. A consistent definition of customer, can break down silos, unlock lost productivity and empower your people.
...
Getting consensus about a single definition about who your customer is can be a very powerful driver of high performance, but very difficult to achieve. You will have to contend with identifying who is not your customer, just as much as you will have to define who your customer is. Once the senior leadership team is aligned on the customer definition then it will be critical to define how each of the units led by the senior leadership team fits into the value chain of the customer.
Misalignment about the customer at the senior leadership team impacts the entire organization."

Vale a pena ler o artigo para perceber algumas consequências de não ter definido e comunicado quem são os clientes-alvo.


Trechos retirados de "Customer Clarity … Exactly who is your Customer?"

Cuidado com os fantasmas turísticos

Este artigo "Turismo de Portugal e INE vão estudar perfil dos turistas internacionais" deixa-me com um misto de sentimentos contraditórios.

"O primeiro passo passará por um inquérito ao turismo internacional, no período entre 2015 e 2016, para compreender aspectos como o perfil demográfico, gastos e motivos de deslocação dos visitantes estrangeiros e dos nacionais que viajam além-fronteiras.
...
ainda faltam indicadores para conhecer melhor a procura e o seu impacto na economia nacional e, posteriormente, adoptar novas políticas."

Informação estatística é boa para perceber o impacte macro do que se está a fazer. No entanto, é perigosa para os actores da micro-economia que não fazem a sua parte, ou que acreditam em modelos do século XX.
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Em "Customer satisfaction in tourist destination: The case of tourism offer in the city of Naples" de Valentina Della Corte, Mauro Sciarelli, Clelia Cascella, Giovanna Del Gaudio, publicado por Journal of Investment and Management 2015; 4(1-1): 39-50 pode ler-se

"The importance of emotions in the consumer behavior models has increased significantly during the last few years.
...
the experiential approach focuses on the affective and emotional component of the consumption process. The concept of “experience” is strictly connected with the entertainment aspect and implies the consumer participation and interaction during the product/service creation. Building an experience means bring the product/service to life and underline its identity through the sensorial involvement of the consumer.
...
customer satisfaction can depend on a series of elements that belong to the subjective sphere of the customer and to the objective quality of the product/service experienced.
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Indeed, it can be easily noticed that the contemporary tourist wants to live a unique experience and is not interested anymore in purchasing a standardized product/service: in order to meet the new needs of the demand, the tourist destinations must give top priority to the achievement of tourist satisfaction."

Um mundo de emoções, de subjectividade, de experiências, de particular.
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Qual é o problema da estatística num mundo de emoções?

"Appealing to mass markets usually results in dilution of experience because it needs to appeal to the lowest common denominator."

Os fantasmas estatísticos, a miudagem.
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Ainda, nas palavras de Lior Arussy em "Passionate and profitable : why customer strategies fail and ten steps to do them right":

"Companies that seek lasting, sustainable, differentiating attributes must reexamine their employees’ experiences to determine how to build human driven attributes into their value proposition consistently. This goes beyond the tired old story of the one employee who dared to break the rules. This is about building an entire operation of rule breakers. It requires a different culture and conditions for such behavior to be nourished and cultivated.
...
[Moi ici: Depois, acerca do efeito das médias e da estatística] "*When you view different customers differently, you can create better, more suitable experiences for customers, as opposed to sinking to the lowest common denominator. *Customized services based on emotions and aspirations should allow you better connection and communication with customers. *There are more opportunities out there to deliver more value (and charge for it) to customers. *Viewing your business from the customer’s perspective opens up new ideas for additional services."

Continuo a crer que a maioria dos empresários do sector ou, pelo menos, os que têm acesso mais facilitado aos media, continuam com o locus de controlo no exterior. Então o governo é que tem de decidir se quer um turismo de qualidade ou não?
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À espera de uma promoção feita pelo governo que nunca poderá fazer por eles aquilo que só eles podem fazer, deixar de serem market-driven e passarem a ser market driving, sim, passarem a procurar moldar e criar o seu próprio mercado, não focando-se na objectividade mas nas experiências dos turistas, dos clientes... scripting markets.
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"INE e Turismo de Portugal cooperam para conhecer melhor os turistas"

Discurso do século XX

Este é um discurso baseado no modelo mental do século XX:

""entre o mercado nacional, ibérico, europeu, e os países de língua oficial portuguesa, Portugal tem acesso privilegiado e natural a um mercado com 750 milhões de pessoas, é o mercado mínimo a que se devem destinar as empresas ambiciosas com origem em Portugal"."

No século XXI as empresas precisam, cada vez mais, de identificar os seus clientes-alvo, de não cair no engano de tentar servir tudo e todos.
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Um predador não ataca todas as presas ao mesmo tempo. Um predador não ataca duas presas ao mesmo tempo. Vejam o filme de uma leoa atrás de uma zebra ou de um gnu. Antes de avançar, identifica a presa concreta que vai perseguir.

Quem são os clientes-alvo? Qual é o job-to-be-done? Não confiar na multidão indistinta, não confiar na miudagem,  não confiar nos fantasmas estatisticos.
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Trecho retirado de "Mercado minimo das empresas portuguesas tem 750 milhões de pessoas"

"a grande mudança que põe os trunfos na mão das PME"

"“Ten years ago, companies or industries defined what the markets needed. Nowadays, consumers are not just asked for their advice and input - they are defining what the products and services should look like, and can even drive and create products themselves on [crowdfunding] platforms like Kickstarter.”
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As we noted in our 2007 study, “The Customer Connection,” companies can spend more money, hire the best engineers, develop the best technology, and conduct the best business market research, but unless their R&D efforts are driven by a thorough understanding of what their customers need and want, their performance may fall short."

Esta é a grande mudança que põe os trunfos na mão das PME com gente capaz de interagir com os clientes como entidades únicas e não como plankton ou miudagem

Trechos retirados de "The Global Innovation 1000: Proven Paths to Innovation Success"

"Let a thousand business models bloom"

Este texto "Our Obsession With Scalability Must End" deixou-me sem palavras.

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Encontrar um texto escrito por alguém num outro continente, a 30 de Outubro de 2014, e tão sintonizado e alinhado com o que aqui escrevemos há muitos anos. Quando escrevemos sobre Mongo, sobre o Estranhistão, sobre o eficientismo, sobre o denominador versus o numerador, sobre a interacção para co-criar valor, sobre a polarização dos mercados, sobre o não querermos, como clientes, ser tratados como miudagem, ser tratados como plankton.
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Isto é música celestial para PME, pena que a mensagem não chegue com a celeridade necessária aos empresários:

"Our obsession with scalability is getting in the way of unleashing the potential of the 21st century. [Moi ici: Escala versus interacção, volume versus à medida, vómito versus personalização] We are so fixated with scalability we have taken our eye off of delivering value at every scale including the most important scale of one. [Moi ici: O cliente deixa de ser uma pessoa, uma empresa concreta e, passa a ser um substantivo colectivo, como a miudagem, como o plankton] The Industrial Era did that to us. Reaching the mass market takes precedence over delivering value to each customer.
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The Industrial Era brought us the reign of the predominant business model. Every industry quickly became dominated by one business model that defined the rules, roles, and practices for all competitors and stakeholders. We became a nation of share takers clamoring to replicate industry best practices to gain or protect every precious market share point. Companies moved up or down industry leadership rankings based on their ability to compete for market share. Business schools minted CEOs who became share-taking clones of one another. It was all about scale. Bigger was always better.
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Institutional leaders are even more obsessed with scalability than entrepreneurs. They fixate on protecting their current scale and assess all new customer value creating ideas through the lens of their current business model.  ...  This is why CEO’s are so hungry for merger and acquisition opportunities. It’s all about scale, not changing the customer value equation.  New business models force institutional leaders to rethink scalability.
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We live in an era that screams for less share taking and more market making. Market makers don’t accept the idea that a predominant business model has to dictate the industry landscape.  [Moi ici: E falamos aqui sobre ecossistemas e market scripting, desenhar mercados como um pintor pinta quadros] They create a new market with a different playbook. ... Today’s consumers refuse to accept that there is only one predominant business model in every industry and that they have to take or leave its offerings.  Consumers now demand personalized experiences, products, and services.
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Consumers are bringing the era of the predominant business model to an end. Business models don’t last as long as they used to. Predominant business models are crumbling all around us.
...
It’s time end our obsession with scalability. There are too many consumer, student, patient, and citizen needs left unmet by predominant business models in every industry. There are too many new business model concepts stuck on white boards and in consulting decks.  We are still allowing predominant business models to slow down and block the emergence of new business models that can better meet our needs.  It’s time to move from the era of the predominant business model to the era of business model proliferation. Let a thousand business models bloom." [Moi ici: Recordar]

Este texto resume bem as ideias deste blogue e da mensagem de esperança que elas encerram.

Acerca da definição do mercado

"(1) marketing strategy should focus more on where to compete (rather than on how to compete); (2) making subjective market definitions or market innovations may be the key to growth; and (3) a starting point for business marketers wishing to outgrow their competitors is to increase the granularity of market definition to identify competitive arenas that are growing."

Três proposições  que merecem reflexão:

1. o mercado onde competir não é um dado, é uma variável, deve ser o resultado de uma escolha. Deve merecer reflexão por parte de quem lidera;
2. o mercado não existe com uma definição objectiva à espera de ser encontrada. Escolher um mercado não é resolver um puzzle, um mercado pode ser criado por um actor a partir de uma nova abordagem, a partir de um novo ponto de vista;
3. o nosso velho convite, deixar de olhar para os clientes como miudagem, como estatísticas, as estatísticas estão cheias de fantasmas enganadores.

Trecho retirado de "Competitive Arena Mapping: Market Innovation Using Morphological Analysis in Business Markets" de Kaj Storbacka e Suvi Nenonen, publicado por Journal of Business-to-Business Marketing, 19:183–215, 2012