terça-feira, julho 06, 2010
Comparações...
Por cá mandam-nos comer sopa... quanto é que descontamos para a Segurança Social (esse esquema Ponzi montado para servir a geração maio de 68 até ao fim)? E quanto é que descontam os empregadores?
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É comparar com as percentagens na Alemanha... "Alemães passam a descontar 8,2% do salário para a Saúde"
A lógica da filosofia das SCUTs
Já repararam que um dos truques que os compradores profissionais aprendem é o de considerar a minimização do custo do produto a adquirir não no acto da compra mas ao longo do ciclo de vida do produto.
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Assim, são capazes de pagar mais no acto de compra de um produto porque sabem que ao longo do ciclo de vida desse produto esse excesso vai ser mais do que compensado.
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Não é exactamente o contrário da filosofia sobre a qual assentam as SCUTS?
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Paga-se menos no acto de compra e muito mais ao longo do ciclo de vida do produto?
Vale a pena recuar a Setembro de 2007
Setembro de 2007, ainda nem se sabia que existia um banco chamado Northern Rock (BTW, solid as a rock, pois).
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Já na altura aqui se falava de SCUTS e do Evangelho de São Lucas "Evangelho segundo São Lucas 14, 25-33"
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O ministro Pinho e os seus próximos ainda navegavam num mundo que já não existia, ele é que ainda não sabia.
Culture eats strategy for lunch
Mais um interessante postal de Spinek "Spot The Northwest Flight Attendant" e, é tão fácil a gestão ficar cega a esta realidade.
"Do Differentiation Differently"
Os clientes não são abstracções estatísticas, são entidades únicas, entidades concretas.
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Um cliente não é um segmento.
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Seteve Yastrow recorda e reforça esta tese com o postal "Do Differentiation Differently":
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"Your customer doesn't really care if you are different. But he will be blown away if he sees that you think he is different.
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Most marketing and sales theory doesn't approach customers in this way. We talk about target markets and demographics, which, instead of recognizing what makes each customer unique, is a way of grouping customers by what makes them similar. We talk about product positioning and unique selling propositions, which is all about us and only incidentally about the customer.
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Flip your thinking around. Focus on differentiating your customers.
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Take Notice
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Put your customer hat on: How much effort do companies expend telling you about themselves vs. the amount of time they spend trying to learn what makes you different? Are there companies that demonstrate that they understand what makes you unique, by interacting with you in a way that is singular and relevant only to you? How do you feel about these companies, relative to those that clump you together with the rest of the "target market?""
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Most marketing and sales theory doesn't approach customers in this way. We talk about target markets and demographics, which, instead of recognizing what makes each customer unique, is a way of grouping customers by what makes them similar. We talk about product positioning and unique selling propositions, which is all about us and only incidentally about the customer.
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Flip your thinking around. Focus on differentiating your customers.
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Take Notice
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Put your customer hat on: How much effort do companies expend telling you about themselves vs. the amount of time they spend trying to learn what makes you different? Are there companies that demonstrate that they understand what makes you unique, by interacting with you in a way that is singular and relevant only to you? How do you feel about these companies, relative to those that clump you together with the rest of the "target market?""
We are here
"Once the voting franchise of the West reached the point where those who sought benefits outweighed those who created benefits, the tipping point was reached. The situation of de facto “class warfare” thus emerges automatically under such circumstances, and the envy of those who take against those who provide erupts into “rights” and “entitlement”. By deifying “democracy” above justice, the enfranchised non-producers could always outvote the producers. We are at this point. The result can only be collapse, or restructuring around a Cæsar or a Bonaparte until, eventually, a productive hierarchy reappears, usually after considerable pain."
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Texto retirado daqui: "Guest Post: The New Civil Wars Within The West"
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Texto retirado daqui: "Guest Post: The New Civil Wars Within The West"
Melhoria contínua vs inovação
Ontem, numa empresa que se distingue pela aposta na inovação, ao discutirmos o texto das suas prioridades estratégicas, pesava-se a eventual incompatibilidade entre inovação e melhoria contínua.
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Interessante que hoje tenha dado de caras com este artigo "The seduction of routine (and other obstacles to spotting opportunities)":
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"“Routine,” according to the English philosopher Alfred North Whitehead, “is the god of every social system.” Standardizing an ad hoc process-from cooking hamburgers at McDonalds to assembling cars at Toyota-increases efficiency, reduces waste, and paves the way for continuous improvement. During the past sixty years, a series of process management tools, including total quality management and lean manufacturing, have spread rapidly. These tools all aim to identify defects, such as burnt Big Macs or defective radios in a Camry. Six sigma, and similar techniques, make perfect sense for improving high volume activities such as fast food preparation and manufacturing, where deviations annoy customers. Striving for zero defects in all activities, however, discourages experimentation and hampers learning. More subtly, it dulls sensitivity to anomalies, which are coded as as defects to be eliminated rather than clues to be explored. Process management has its place-typically the factory or the back office-but an obsessive devotion to routinization devalues the incongruities and serendipity that often signal opportunities."
segunda-feira, julho 05, 2010
A geração que fez o Maio de 68 ...
... vai sugar-nos a todos até ao fim.
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Só a Lei da Vida vai salvar os que vieram depois...
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Inveja
"Germany focuses on cutting spending"
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"argue that by curbing spending – rather than increasing taxes – the €80bn ($100.3bn, £66bn) savings programme would differ “fundamentally” from previous fiscal squeezes and offer “noticeable, better growth possibilities”."
Strategy and the Fat Smoker (parte I)
Do livro "Strategy and the Fat Smoker" de David Maister retiro:
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"What is very hard is actually doing what you know to be good for you in the long-run, in spite of short-run temptations.
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In the past two-and-a-half decades, I have been trusted to see a large number of strategic plans from a wide variety of professional firms around the world, including direct competitors. What is immediately noteworthy is how similar (if not identical) they all are.
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This is not because anyone is being stupid, but because everyone is smart. Every competitor is smart enough to analyze the market and spot which sectors are growing and which are in decline. Few competitors get it wrong. Everyone - absolutely everyone - can see which services and products are "hot" and which are becoming commodities.
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What is more, everyone understands the basis of business success: provide outstanding client service, act like team players, provide a good place to work, invest in your future. No sensible firm (or person) would enunciate a strategy that advocated anything else.
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However, just because something is obvious doesn't make it easy. Real strategy lies not in figuring out what to do, but in devising ways to ensure that, compared to others, we actually do more of what everybody knows they should do.
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Real strategy lies not in figuring out what to do, but in devising ways to ensure that, compared to others, we actually do more of what everybody knows they should do.
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We know what to do, we know why we should do it, and we know how to do it. Yet most businesses and individuals don't do what's good for them.
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The rewards (and pleasure) are in the future; the disruption, discomfort and discipline needed to get there are immediate.
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The necessary outcome of strategic planning is not analytical insight but resolve."
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Este último ponto "is not analytical insight but resolve" é fundamental... é, por vezes, desesperante, como reflectimos aqui: "O sentido da urgência", "Instilar um sentido de urgência!" e "Procrastinação e falta de sentido de urgência".
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In the past two-and-a-half decades, I have been trusted to see a large number of strategic plans from a wide variety of professional firms around the world, including direct competitors. What is immediately noteworthy is how similar (if not identical) they all are.
.
This is not because anyone is being stupid, but because everyone is smart. Every competitor is smart enough to analyze the market and spot which sectors are growing and which are in decline. Few competitors get it wrong. Everyone - absolutely everyone - can see which services and products are "hot" and which are becoming commodities.
.
What is more, everyone understands the basis of business success: provide outstanding client service, act like team players, provide a good place to work, invest in your future. No sensible firm (or person) would enunciate a strategy that advocated anything else.
...
However, just because something is obvious doesn't make it easy. Real strategy lies not in figuring out what to do, but in devising ways to ensure that, compared to others, we actually do more of what everybody knows they should do.
...
Real strategy lies not in figuring out what to do, but in devising ways to ensure that, compared to others, we actually do more of what everybody knows they should do.
...
We know what to do, we know why we should do it, and we know how to do it. Yet most businesses and individuals don't do what's good for them.
...
The rewards (and pleasure) are in the future; the disruption, discomfort and discipline needed to get there are immediate.
...
The necessary outcome of strategic planning is not analytical insight but resolve."
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Este último ponto "is not analytical insight but resolve" é fundamental... é, por vezes, desesperante, como reflectimos aqui: "O sentido da urgência", "Instilar um sentido de urgência!" e "Procrastinação e falta de sentido de urgência".
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Em linha com um artigo de Junho de 2008 da Harvard Business Review "The Secrets to Successful Strategy Execution":
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"Employees at three out of every five companies rated their organization weak at execution—that is, when asked if they agreed with the statement “Important strategic and operational decisions are quickly translated into action,” the majority answered no.
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Execution is the result of thousands of decisions made every day by employees acting according to the information they have and their own self-interest. In our work helping more than 250 companies learn to execute more effectively, we’ve identified four fundamental building blocks executives can use to influence those actions—clarifying decision rights, designing information flows, aligning motivators, and making changes to structure.)"
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Execution is the result of thousands of decisions made every day by employees acting according to the information they have and their own self-interest. In our work helping more than 250 companies learn to execute more effectively, we’ve identified four fundamental building blocks executives can use to influence those actions—clarifying decision rights, designing information flows, aligning motivators, and making changes to structure.)"
domingo, julho 04, 2010
Ignorância e caviar, uma mistura explosiva
"Empresas de Terceiro Mundo" um postal de Daniel Oliveira no blogue "Arrastão".
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Nele pode ler-se:
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"Segundo o estudo, 61,3 por cento dos trabalhadores por conta de outrem têm até ao terceiro ciclo do ensino básico, 20,4 por cento têm o ensino secundário e 18,3 por cento o ensino superior. Nos patrões, os números mudam um pouco: 71,7 por cento têm até ao terceiro ciclo do ensino básico, 12,2 por cento o ensino secundário e 16,1 por cento o ensino superior. Ou seja, há muito mais trabalhadores com o ensino secundário completo (mais 67,2 por cento) e com o ensino superior (mais 13,7 por cento) do que empresários.
Como não é plausível que quem tem melhores qualificações tenha menos apetência para o risco, é possível tirar daqui outras conclusões. (Moi ici: Não é plausível? Com que bases é feita esta afirmação? Ver nota 1)
O que estes números evidenciam é que, para além de alguns empresários em nome individual que são, na realidade, trabalhadores por conta de outrem, grande parte do nosso tecido empresarial é de tipo familiar, dirigido por pessoas com uma baixíssima preparação técnica. Não sucede assim nos países realmente desenvolvidos. Não só as pequenas empresas têm menor peso na economia (Moi ici: Caro Daniel Oliveira o único país do mundo onde tal acontece, as grandes empresas representarem a maioria do tecido empresarial, é na Rússia, por legado da economia centralizada para os oligarcas. Em qualquer país europeu as PMEs representam a maioria das empresas e do emprego. Recordar que em Portugal as 1000 maiores empresas representam cerca de 8% do emprego. Ver nota 2) como, mesmo para dirigir uma pequeníssima empresa, é exigível algum grau de preparação." (Moi ici: Pronto, se o BE chegar ao poder as PME's serão expropriadas a quem não for doutor, engenheiro ou arquitecto. Olha, lá se vai a Inarbel...)
Como não é plausível que quem tem melhores qualificações tenha menos apetência para o risco, é possível tirar daqui outras conclusões. (Moi ici: Não é plausível? Com que bases é feita esta afirmação? Ver nota 1)
O que estes números evidenciam é que, para além de alguns empresários em nome individual que são, na realidade, trabalhadores por conta de outrem, grande parte do nosso tecido empresarial é de tipo familiar, dirigido por pessoas com uma baixíssima preparação técnica. Não sucede assim nos países realmente desenvolvidos. Não só as pequenas empresas têm menor peso na economia (Moi ici: Caro Daniel Oliveira o único país do mundo onde tal acontece, as grandes empresas representarem a maioria do tecido empresarial, é na Rússia, por legado da economia centralizada para os oligarcas. Em qualquer país europeu as PMEs representam a maioria das empresas e do emprego. Recordar que em Portugal as 1000 maiores empresas representam cerca de 8% do emprego. Ver nota 2) como, mesmo para dirigir uma pequeníssima empresa, é exigível algum grau de preparação." (Moi ici: Pronto, se o BE chegar ao poder as PME's serão expropriadas a quem não for doutor, engenheiro ou arquitecto. Olha, lá se vai a Inarbel...)
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Nota 1: "4. Os estudantes universitários portugueses demonstram intenções empreendedoras?
Os estudantes universitários portugueses, sendo os futuros agentes de desenvolvimento da sociedade e do tecido empresarial português, não demonstram grandes intenções empreendedoras. O estudo desenvolvido pelo Observatório do Empreendedorismo de Base Tecnológica (2005) mostra que 40,8% dos alunos inquiridos não manifestam intenções empreendedoras, sendo que 7% revelam intenções empreendedoras e apenas 5,1% revelam fortes intenções empreendedoras."
Os estudantes universitários portugueses, sendo os futuros agentes de desenvolvimento da sociedade e do tecido empresarial português, não demonstram grandes intenções empreendedoras. O estudo desenvolvido pelo Observatório do Empreendedorismo de Base Tecnológica (2005) mostra que 40,8% dos alunos inquiridos não manifestam intenções empreendedoras, sendo que 7% revelam intenções empreendedoras e apenas 5,1% revelam fortes intenções empreendedoras."
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Nota 2: "SMEs represented 99.8 % of all EU-27 enterprises in the non-financial business economy in 2006, employing two thirds of the workforce (67.4 %) and generating 57.7 % of total value added;" ... "SMEs employed 81.0 % of the non-financial business economy workforce in Italy in 2006, a share that fell close to 50 % in Slovakia and the United Kingdom;"
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BTW, por que é que só as empresas que não têm licenciados à sua frente é que vão à falência nestes tempos que correm? E empresas como a Qimonda?
Ideias interessantes sobre o turismo
Há tempos disseram-me que durante o ano de 2010 vão abrir 17 hotéis na cidade do Porto.
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Eheheh, há aqui muito 'optimismo não documentado' em simultâneo.
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Lembrei-me deste facto por causa de um título do Caderno de Economia do semanário Expresso de ontem "Há hotéis de 4 estrelas a €20 por dia em Albufeira"
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Trata-se de uma interessante entrevista com André Jordan. Alguns destaques:
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"Vê solução para as quebras do mercado inglês, em particular no golfe?
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Eu vendi os campos de golfe de Vilamoura em 2007, e já naquela altura, em pleno boom, defendia que era preciso criar um Portugal Golf Club, no modelo dos programas de fidelização das companhia aéreas, para criar uma ligação do cliente ao destino. Se a operação for impessoal, no ano seguinte o cliente vai para outro local, porque é mais barato. Mas ninguém aprovou a ideia: dava trabalho, era mais fácil trabalhar com os tour operators. Perdemos 30% do mercado do golfe, é preciso recuperá-lo com acções de fidelização, não a baixar preços. Há hotéis de quatro estrelas em Albufeira a cobrar €20 por dia. Não podemos entrar nisso, mais vale fechar."
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"Há sempre uma saída, temos de a procurar colectivamente. Sozinho, ninguém tem capacidade para disputar o mercado, mas juntos podemos fazê-lo."
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"Toda a crise é igual, parece que é o fim. Só que Portugal não acabou. E não é olhar a crise como uma tempestade no céu e ninguém pode fazer nada: temos de reagir, atacar o mercado."
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"Se ficarmos parados, saímos do mapa. Não sou burro nem teimoso, penso em termos prospectivos, acho que há sempre clientes aí fora, é preciso ir buscá-los."
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"Tem dito que não é com discotecas na praia que se promove um destino como o Algarve.
Já nem quero comentar o problema Algarve. Quem tem de fazer a promoção não são as regiões de turismo, são os empresários, os que têm o dinheiro no fogo, embora apoiados com linhas de crédito, juros baicos ou benesses fiscais."
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Alguém que sabe qual o segmento que persegue e que não se ilude com fogo de artifício.
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sábado, julho 03, 2010
Processos vs estrutura (parte II)
Continuado daqui.
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Voltando ao artigo “The Decision-Driven Organization” de Marcia Blenko, Michael Mankins e Paul Rogers, publicado pela Harvard Business Review do mês de Junho de 2010.
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“The Six Steps to Decision-Driven Reorganization
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Identify your organization’s key decisions (Moi ici: Tendo em conta os clientes-alvo, tendo em conta a proposta de valor, quais os factores críticos para o sucesso?)
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Determine where in the organization those decisions should happen (Moi ici: Quais são os processos críticos para o sucesso da estratégia?)
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Organize the macrostructure around sources of value (Moi ici: Melhorar os processos críticos para o sucesso da estratégia. Faz muito mais sentido do que melhorar a macro-estrutura)
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Figure out what level of authority decision makers need (Moi ici: Para fazer com que os processos críticos fluam da melhor forma).
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Align other elements of the organizational system, such as incentives, information flow, and processes, with those related to decision making (Moi ici: Mais uma vez, a sinergia das partes do modelo de negócio, ou a perspectiva de recursos e infraestruturas encadeada com a perspectiva dos processos)
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Help managers develop the skills and behaviors necessary to make and execute decisions quickly and well. (Moi ici: Em função dos processos críticos para a execução da estratégia, quais as funções críticas para a tomada de decisões e para o fluxo dos processos críticos)
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IMHO: Faz muito mais sentido assentar a transformação nos processos do que no organigrama.
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Voltando ao artigo “The Decision-Driven Organization” de Marcia Blenko, Michael Mankins e Paul Rogers, publicado pela Harvard Business Review do mês de Junho de 2010.
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“The Six Steps to Decision-Driven Reorganization
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Identify your organization’s key decisions (Moi ici: Tendo em conta os clientes-alvo, tendo em conta a proposta de valor, quais os factores críticos para o sucesso?)
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Determine where in the organization those decisions should happen (Moi ici: Quais são os processos críticos para o sucesso da estratégia?)
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Organize the macrostructure around sources of value (Moi ici: Melhorar os processos críticos para o sucesso da estratégia. Faz muito mais sentido do que melhorar a macro-estrutura)
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Figure out what level of authority decision makers need (Moi ici: Para fazer com que os processos críticos fluam da melhor forma).
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Align other elements of the organizational system, such as incentives, information flow, and processes, with those related to decision making (Moi ici: Mais uma vez, a sinergia das partes do modelo de negócio, ou a perspectiva de recursos e infraestruturas encadeada com a perspectiva dos processos)
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Help managers develop the skills and behaviors necessary to make and execute decisions quickly and well. (Moi ici: Em função dos processos críticos para a execução da estratégia, quais as funções críticas para a tomada de decisões e para o fluxo dos processos críticos)
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IMHO: Faz muito mais sentido assentar a transformação nos processos do que no organigrama.
Um tema recorrente porque importante e actual
"When companies underestimate low-cost rivals"
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"Executives always regret it when they don’t anticipate the scope of a low-cost threat and respond forcefully. To be sure, a failure to see competitors is an example of the forces of “creative destruction” at work in capitalism. But companies alert enough to identify the nature and magnitude of the challenge will be in a better position to find ways to hold the new competitors at bay."
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"Executives always regret it when they don’t anticipate the scope of a low-cost threat and respond forcefully. To be sure, a failure to see competitors is an example of the forces of “creative destruction” at work in capitalism. But companies alert enough to identify the nature and magnitude of the challenge will be in a better position to find ways to hold the new competitors at bay."
sexta-feira, julho 02, 2010
Uma lição interessante
"Lessons We Can Learn On How Stimulus And Jobs Programs Failed In Eastern Germany"
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"Today, the eastern German economy is still in a sorry state, and there are no indications that the situation will change. An estimated €1.3 trillion ($1.6 trillion) have flowed from the former West Germany to the former East Germany over the last 20 years. But what has that money achieved?
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Historic neighborhoods have been restored, new autobahns built and the telephone network brought up to date, but most of the money was spent on social benefits such as welfare payments. The anticipated economic upswing failed to materialize."
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Hummmm!!! Onde é que já vimos cenas destas?
Depois o burro sou eu...
Durante os primeiros 9 meses do ano passado utilizei várias vezes os marcadores:
- sei o que não me disseste na última campanha eleitoral
- moscas, por causa de 42 partes do título "Acordar as moscas que estão a dormir"
- desde que ouvi o ministro pinho dizer que a crise financeira não afectará a economia
Pois... depois o burro sou eu...
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Processos vs estrutura
Já escrevi várias vezes neste blogue o quanto aprecio a abordagem por processos, a visão horizontal da organização, a visão que se concentra no que há por fazer, a visão que se focaliza na finalidade do trabalho executado.
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No número de Junho, a revista Harvard Business Review publica "The Decision Driven Organization", um artigo de Michael Mankins, Marcia Blenko e Paul Rogers.
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"Many CEOs assume that organizational structure—the boxes and lines on a company’s org chart—is a key determinant of financial performance.
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nearly half of all CEOs launch a reorg during their first two years on the job. Some preside over repeated restructurings. The immediate motives vary. Some are about cutting costs; others are about promoting growth. Some are about shaking up a culture; others are about shifting strategic focus. Whatever the specifics, though, reorgs almost always involve making major structural changes in pursuit of better performance.
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Despite the fanfare that usually greets them, however, most reorganizations fall flat. A recent Bain & Company study of 57 reorgs between 2000 and 2006 found that fewer than one-third produced any meaningful improvement in performance. Most had no effect, and some actually destroyed value.
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We believe that this failure is rooted in a profound misunderstanding about the link between structure and performance. Contrary to popular belief, performance is not determined solely by the nature, scale, and disposition of resources, important though they may be. An army’s success depends at least as much on the quality of the decisions its officers and soldiers make and execute on the ground as it does on actual fighting power. A corporation’s structure, similarly, will produce better performance if and only if it improves the organization’s ability to make and execute key decisions better and faster than competitors. It may be that the strategic priority for your company is to become more innovative. In that case, the reorganization challenge is to structure the company so that its leaders can make decisions that produce more and better innovation over time.
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The goals of the audit are to understand the set of decisions that are critical to the success of your company’s strategy and to determine the organizational level at which those decisions should be made and executed to create the most value. If you can align your organization’s structure with its decisions, then the structure will work better, and your company’s performance will improve."
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E se pusermos de lado o organigrama e as funções?
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E se nos concentrarmos nos processos que compõem o ser vivo, o sistema que é a organização?
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Recorrendo ao 'canvas' de Osterwalder, ao desenhar o modelo do negócio:
Em função dos clientes-alvo, da proposta de valor, e dos canais para chegar às prateleiras:
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É nos processos críticos que são realizadas as actividades-chave e são tomadas as decisões que fazem a diferença.
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"Ultimately, a company's value is no more (and no less) than the sum of the decisions it makes and executes. Its assets, capabilities, and structure are useless unless executives and managers throughout the organization make the essential decisions and get those decisions right more often than not."
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Continua.
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No número de Junho, a revista Harvard Business Review publica "The Decision Driven Organization", um artigo de Michael Mankins, Marcia Blenko e Paul Rogers.
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"Many CEOs assume that organizational structure—the boxes and lines on a company’s org chart—is a key determinant of financial performance.
...
nearly half of all CEOs launch a reorg during their first two years on the job. Some preside over repeated restructurings. The immediate motives vary. Some are about cutting costs; others are about promoting growth. Some are about shaking up a culture; others are about shifting strategic focus. Whatever the specifics, though, reorgs almost always involve making major structural changes in pursuit of better performance.
.
Despite the fanfare that usually greets them, however, most reorganizations fall flat. A recent Bain & Company study of 57 reorgs between 2000 and 2006 found that fewer than one-third produced any meaningful improvement in performance. Most had no effect, and some actually destroyed value.
...
We believe that this failure is rooted in a profound misunderstanding about the link between structure and performance. Contrary to popular belief, performance is not determined solely by the nature, scale, and disposition of resources, important though they may be. An army’s success depends at least as much on the quality of the decisions its officers and soldiers make and execute on the ground as it does on actual fighting power. A corporation’s structure, similarly, will produce better performance if and only if it improves the organization’s ability to make and execute key decisions better and faster than competitors. It may be that the strategic priority for your company is to become more innovative. In that case, the reorganization challenge is to structure the company so that its leaders can make decisions that produce more and better innovation over time.
...
The goals of the audit are to understand the set of decisions that are critical to the success of your company’s strategy and to determine the organizational level at which those decisions should be made and executed to create the most value. If you can align your organization’s structure with its decisions, then the structure will work better, and your company’s performance will improve."
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E se pusermos de lado o organigrama e as funções?
.
E se nos concentrarmos nos processos que compõem o ser vivo, o sistema que é a organização?
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Recorrendo ao 'canvas' de Osterwalder, ao desenhar o modelo do negócio:
Em função dos clientes-alvo, da proposta de valor, e dos canais para chegar às prateleiras:
- Quais são as actividades-chave?
- Quais são os recursos-chave?
- Quem são os parceiros-chave?
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É nos processos críticos que são realizadas as actividades-chave e são tomadas as decisões que fazem a diferença.
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"Ultimately, a company's value is no more (and no less) than the sum of the decisions it makes and executes. Its assets, capabilities, and structure are useless unless executives and managers throughout the organization make the essential decisions and get those decisions right more often than not."
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Continua.
What to Do Against Disruptive Business Models?
Constantinos Markides e Daniel Oyon, no número de Verão deste ano da MIT Sloan Management Review apresentam um artigo muito interessante sobre trabalhar para diferentes clientes-alvo "What to Do Against Disruptive Business Models? (When and How to Play Two Games at Once)"
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O problema:
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"most companies are unsuccessful in their efforts to compete with two business models at once"
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"By attempting to compete with themselves, Porter argued, companies risk paying a significant straddling cost: damaging their existing brands and diluting their organizations’ cultures for innovation and differentiation.
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His view was that a company could find itself “stuck in the middle” if it tried to compete with both low-cost and differentiation strategies."
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His view was that a company could find itself “stuck in the middle” if it tried to compete with both low-cost and differentiation strategies."
...
A solução:
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"The primary solution proposed to solve this problem is to keep the two business models (and their underlying value chains) separate in two distinct organizations. That is the “innovator’s solution” that Clayton Christensen proposed and that has been supported by others"
...
"Although the idea of creating separate business units has received a lot of attention, this approach by itself does not ensure success."
...
"We have also found that competing successfully with two different and conflicting business models involves more than creating a separate unit. Several years ago, we studied the experiences of 68 companies that faced the challenge of competing with dual business models. Our main finding was that only a handful of companies that created separate units were successful in playing two games. Many had created separate units and still failed, suggesting that separation in itself was not enough to ensure success."
...
Mas não basta criar uma outra unidade...
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"we examined 42 companies that had created a separate unit to compete in the new market. Of these, 10 were successful, while 32 failed. We compared the two groups on three dimensions:
- (1) the amount of strategic, financial and operational autonomy given to the unit (measured on a scale of 1 to 5, with high scores implying that decision-making autonomy was granted to the unit)
- (2) differences in the culture, budgetary and investment policies, evaluation systems and rewards relative to the parent (measured on a scale of 1 to 6 with high scores implying that these policies were very different)
- (3) whether the new unit was managed by a new CEO and (4) whether the new CEO came from outside the company or was transferred internally.
Os Gestores Supersticiosos
Em Julho de 1996 a revista MIT Sloan Management Review publicou o artigo "Are U.S. Managers Superstitious about Market Share?".
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"Does the strategy of linking market share to profit really work? This investigation argues that there is simply no causal relationship between market share and profits."
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Em linha com um dos meus ditados preferidos:
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Volume is Vanity, Profit is Sanity.
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"Many U.S. managers are superstitious as well, particularly about business strategy. The false notion that higher market share causes higher profits has had a huge impact on companies’ performance, the associated welfare of employees and shareholders, and society in general. Unfortunately, corporate goals and executive incentive systems are often partially based on market share achievements. Business journalists evaluate companies by describing them in terms of market share, with the clear implication that bigger is better. And, every semester, marketing and strategy textbooks lead business students astray."
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Como escreveu Hermann Simon, "Manage For Profit Not For Market Share"
quinta-feira, julho 01, 2010
Querem apostar?
"BTW, recordo as palavras de José Sócrates na última entrevista televisiva que deu. Disse qualquer coisa como "Poupança. Que horror! Dinheiro parado no banco" " (Recordar aqui)
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Progresso na mudança de modelo mental?
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Ou será apenas mais um degrau para confiscar parte do salário dos portugueses e convertê-lo, obrigatoriamente, em Certificados do Tesouro?
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Querem apostar?
Em vez de apostar na guerrilha...
... podiam apostar na parceria.
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A Centromarca não aprende!!! Aonde levam os seus sócios com esta abordagem?
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Basta recordar Centromarca ou a série "Agarrem-me senão eu mato-me!!!"
Time to shut down the US Federal Reserve?
"Time to shut down the US Federal Reserve?"
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"Actually, Greenspan never got a Phd. His honourary doctorate was awarded later for political reasons. (He had been a Nixon speech-writer). But never mind." LOL, I know what you mean, here we have Vieira da Silva.
Lugar do Senhor dos Perdões (parte V)
Continuado daqui: parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV.
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Voltando ao livro "Job Creation and Destruction" de Steven Davis, John Haltiwanger e Scott Schuh:
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"Like most people, policymakers and bureaucrats evince a reluctance to acknowledge mistakes. Consequently, targeted policy programs tend to persist beyond the point of economic desirability, and they are likely to be managed in a way that obscures evidence of policy failure. (Moi ici: Qimonda, Aerosoles, ...) Once again, this political economy argument is not new, but it acquires added force in light of the dominant role of idiosyncratic determinants of business performance. To minimize job loss and business failure - thereby helping to preserve the image of a successful policy - the least successful businesses in targeted sectors often receive more generous subsidies or other forms of assistance."
Acerca do deboche...
"Stimulus alone will not work because the U.S. private sector needs a debt restructuring. Too much consumption has been pulled forward and financed by too much debt. The result a horrible misallocation of productive investment to which we are now awakening. That necessarily means lower economic growth and lower income growth going forward – a situation which makes many debt contracts of yesteryear uneconomic. Debtors are simply too indebted to take on more. (Moi ici: está cá tudo)
And should the Federal Government continue to socialize these losses as they have done, we can be sure that a disproportionate amount of real resources will continue to be devoted to buying and selling houses or concocting financial products to sell to one another. And then perhaps the day of reckoning can be put off. Is that going to make the U.S. grow again?
...
It is this lack of global aggregate demand (Moi ici: este é um ponto importante: ver aqui e aqui) – resulting from too much debt in parts of the global economy and not enough in others – that is the essence of the problem, which only economists with names beginning in R seem to understand (there is no R in PIMCO no matter how much I want to extend the metaphor, and yes, Paul _Rugman fits the description as well!)."
And should the Federal Government continue to socialize these losses as they have done, we can be sure that a disproportionate amount of real resources will continue to be devoted to buying and selling houses or concocting financial products to sell to one another. And then perhaps the day of reckoning can be put off. Is that going to make the U.S. grow again?
...
It is this lack of global aggregate demand (Moi ici: este é um ponto importante: ver aqui e aqui) – resulting from too much debt in parts of the global economy and not enough in others – that is the essence of the problem, which only economists with names beginning in R seem to understand (there is no R in PIMCO no matter how much I want to extend the metaphor, and yes, Paul _Rugman fits the description as well!)."
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Trechos retirados de "It’s the debt, stupid – Bill Gross edition"
Ainda mais uma vez: acerca da produtividade
Nem de propósito, ontem colocámos no blogue vários artigos sobre a produtividade, ao final do dia a McKinsey Quarterly publicava o artigo "The productivity imperative":
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"In the wealthy nations of the developed world, by contrast, low birthrates and graying workforces will make it enormously difficult to maintain what economist Adam Smith called “the natural progress of opulence.”
These countries’ best hope for keeping the wealth creation engine stoked is improved productivity—producing more with fewer workers. Paradoxically, doing that well across an economy is also the only way to generate lasting employment gains.
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We call the productivity challenge an imperative because the need is so compelling. But to eke out even modest GDP increases, OECD1 nations must achieve nothing short of Herculean gains in productivity."
These countries’ best hope for keeping the wealth creation engine stoked is improved productivity—producing more with fewer workers. Paradoxically, doing that well across an economy is also the only way to generate lasting employment gains.
...
We call the productivity challenge an imperative because the need is so compelling. But to eke out even modest GDP increases, OECD1 nations must achieve nothing short of Herculean gains in productivity."
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Basta olhar para o exemplo japonês "Japan May Wither as Working Population Reaches 20-Year Low: Chart of Day"
quarta-feira, junho 30, 2010
“Numa empresa dele talvez”
Grande resposta de Belmiro de Azevedo, ao nível dos tempos áureos de Pinto da Costa:
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"O ministro da Economia, Vieira da Silva afirma que se as empresas estiverem em condições de absorver o impacto da subida do IVA em 1%, que amanhã entra em vigor, o devem fazer. Em resposta a esse apelo, o chairman da Sonae, Belmiro de Azevedo, não deixa margem para dúvidas. “Numa empresa dele talvez”, enfatizou.
Belmiro de Azevedo pensa que as empresas não devem suportar nova subida de impostos e justifica.”A Sonae paga rigorosamente, “on time”, os impostos devidos. Não deve pagar mais nem menos, deve pagar tudo. Não faz sentido o Estado andar a pedir esmola ou a fazer favores à custa dos empresários. Já há encargos fiscais enormes”, disse o chairman da Sonae, à margem da apresentação do novo edifico da empresa, o “Sonae Maia Business Center”, evento em que esteve também presente Vieira da Silva."
Belmiro de Azevedo pensa que as empresas não devem suportar nova subida de impostos e justifica.”A Sonae paga rigorosamente, “on time”, os impostos devidos. Não deve pagar mais nem menos, deve pagar tudo. Não faz sentido o Estado andar a pedir esmola ou a fazer favores à custa dos empresários. Já há encargos fiscais enormes”, disse o chairman da Sonae, à margem da apresentação do novo edifico da empresa, o “Sonae Maia Business Center”, evento em que esteve também presente Vieira da Silva."
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Trecho retirado daqui.
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Por favor, alguém que lhe tire a venda que continua às apalpadelas.
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Ainda acerca da Produtividade
"Redefining Manufacturing Productivity"
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"If the traditional definition of productivity is output per worker hour, most improvement efforts historically have been focused on the denominator in that equation: worker hours."
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""Over the past 20 years, manufacturing plants were considered outside the domain of the business itself," says Peter Martin, vice president of strategic ventures at Invensys Process Systems. "Executives viewed plants as necessary evils, and they focused a lot of their productivity improvement activities on headcount reduction."
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"If the traditional definition of productivity is output per worker hour, most improvement efforts historically have been focused on the denominator in that equation: worker hours."
...
""Over the past 20 years, manufacturing plants were considered outside the domain of the business itself," says Peter Martin, vice president of strategic ventures at Invensys Process Systems. "Executives viewed plants as necessary evils, and they focused a lot of their productivity improvement activities on headcount reduction."
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In the 1970s and 1980s, the investments in new plant floor automation and control systems were most often justified by headcount reductions. Productivity-focused technology investments were calculated primarily to reduce labor costs rather than streamline or reengineer core processes.
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In the 1970s and 1980s, the investments in new plant floor automation and control systems were most often justified by headcount reductions. Productivity-focused technology investments were calculated primarily to reduce labor costs rather than streamline or reengineer core processes.
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As a result, Martin says, "In the '70s and '80s, we saw huge reductions in the headcount of field and control room operators. In the '80s and '90s, the focus was on automating maintenance, and headcounts in maintenance departments plunged. And, in the '90s and 2000s," he says, "the focus has been on engineering.
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It's gotten to the point that many plants found themselves below the critical mass level in terms of headcount.
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So the focus on reducing headcount as a way to generate productivity is over."
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Now, Martin says, manufacturers must shift their focus from the headcount denominator part of the productivity equation to the numerator: making sure the plant is operating at maximum efficiency, that assets are generating the greatest possible return on investment, and that companies are agile enough to recognize shifts in demand and to respond to them quickly.
In order to do that, experts say, manufacturers must leave behind the notion that the plant is a necessary evil, divorced from the rest of the business. Plant-level processes and systems must be integrated with the processes and systems of the extended enterprise such as sales, fulfillment, and procurement, so that business managers and manufacturing operators alike have better, up-to-date visibility into not just how well a machine or production line is operating in isolation, but how well it is contributing overall to profitability, return on assets, and production goals.
In order to do that, experts say, manufacturers must leave behind the notion that the plant is a necessary evil, divorced from the rest of the business. Plant-level processes and systems must be integrated with the processes and systems of the extended enterprise such as sales, fulfillment, and procurement, so that business managers and manufacturing operators alike have better, up-to-date visibility into not just how well a machine or production line is operating in isolation, but how well it is contributing overall to profitability, return on assets, and production goals.
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With that kind of integrated view, analysts say, the definition of productivity itself will change. Rather than finetuning operations so that they simply pump out the most widgets per hour, manufacturers will be able to optimize, for example, on profitability or the ability to respond quickly to changes in demand."
With that kind of integrated view, analysts say, the definition of productivity itself will change. Rather than finetuning operations so that they simply pump out the most widgets per hour, manufacturers will be able to optimize, for example, on profitability or the ability to respond quickly to changes in demand."
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Não é fácil encontrar esta linguagem que pregamos aqui no blogue.
Reflexões sobre a produtividade
"What determines productivity?"
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"When Bartelsman and Doms (2000) reviewed the state of knowledge in this area a decade ago, one of the most prominent and substantive findings were the enormous and persistent differences in measured productivity across producers, even within narrowly defined industries.
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That some producers obtained twice as much output (or more) from the same measured inputs shaped research agendas over the past decade in a number of fields, including macroeconomics, industrial organisation, labour, organisational economics, and trade. Recent research efforts have been directed at trying to understand why these productivity differences exist and are so ubiquitous."
That some producers obtained twice as much output (or more) from the same measured inputs shaped research agendas over the past decade in a number of fields, including macroeconomics, industrial organisation, labour, organisational economics, and trade. Recent research efforts have been directed at trying to understand why these productivity differences exist and are so ubiquitous."
...
"The new findings offer two categories of explanations for inter-firm productivity differences.
- One includes factors that operate primarily within businesses, be it at the firm, plant, or even production line level. These are potentially under the control of management or other economic actors inside the firm.
- The second set contains elements external to the firm. The impact of these “environmental” factors might not always be direct, but they can affect producers’ willingness and ability to harness factors in the first set. They may also influence the amount of productivity dispersion that is sustainable in equilibrium."
IMHO, o factor mais importante, intra-sector, para explicar a disparidade na produtividade reside:
- "Managerial practice/talent
Os jogadores de bilhar amador...
só pensam na jogada imediata. 10 anos é muito, muito à frente.
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"In the whole discussion about whether the U.S. should borrow more now when the interest rates are low, I miss one crucial thing - what happens when the debt comes due?
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Risk-free debt is really risk-free only when the maturity also coincides with terminal repayment. "
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Risk-free debt is really risk-free only when the maturity also coincides with terminal repayment. "
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Texto completo aqui.
Lugar do Senhor dos Perdões (parte IV)
Continuado daqui, daqui e daqui.
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Voltando ao livro "Job Creation and Destruction" de Steven Davis, John Haltiwanger e Scott Schuh:
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"First, the great heterogeneity of plant-level job growth and productivity outcomes suggests that businesses probably exhibit sharply different responses to policy interventions, even within narrowly defined industries or other sectoral groupings. Because businesses are not easily classifiable into sectors with homogeneous behavior, policies that grant preferential treatment to identifiable groups of firms can be poor tools for encouraging or discouraging particular economic activities. For example, when an industry successfully lobbies for import protection in the name of protecting jobs, some firms may not use the resulting increase in cash flow to preserve jobs."
...
"the large role played by idiosyncratic factors makes it more difficult to discern the impact of policy interventions on the performance of affected firms."
...
"the idiosyncratic determinants of business performance exacerbate the cost and difficulty of evaluating targeted commercial policies. As a consequence, useless or harmful targeted policies are more likely to persist over time before recognition of their inefficay sets in."
...
"Debates about targeted industrial policy often center on the government's capacity or lack of capacity to identify potential winners. (Moi ici: Pois, o Grande Planeador, o Grande Geometra que tudo sabe) In our view, an even more serious problem with targeted industrial policies involves the government's ability to respond appropriately to economic losers. By their nature, targeted policies engender political constituencies with a special interest in preserving the benefits of preferential tax, subsidy, or regulatory treatment. Once organized, these political constituencies continue to press for preferential treatment regardless of whether the targeted policy continues to promote greater economic efficiency. Thus, targeted policies encourage the formation of special interest groups that, in turn, undermine the application of economic efficiency criteria to future economic policy decisions. (Moi ici: Como diz o miúdo do filme "O Sexto Sentido", "All the time!!!" )
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This line of argument is not new, but it acquires greater force from the evidence of heterogeneity in plant-level employment and productivity outcomes. The large magnitude of job creation and destruction, including the important role of births and deaths, suggests that trial and error play a central role in economic growth and in the evolution of businesses and industries. Put differently, large-scale business failure and job destruction are normal, probably essential, elements of a successful market economy. But targeted policies impede the trial-and-error process by inhibiting business failure and job destruction when such outcomes are economically desirable. ... Market mechanisms for dealing with economic failure are likely to operate more efficiently and expeditiously than political mechanisms."
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Continua.
terça-feira, junho 29, 2010
Nós também vamos precisar de um corte de cabelo
"Roubini says Greece needs orderly debt restructuring to avoid 'inevitable default'"
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"He argues that orderly restructurings, such as in Pakistan in 1999 and Uruguay in 2002, "are better for most private creditors, the debtor nation and multilateral institutions thatn an Argentine-style botched bail-out"."
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Vamos precisar e não vou ter pena de quem empresta droga a governos viciados.
Primeiro passo para iniciar a mudança
Acabar com as negações e biombos e enfrentar a realidade de frente...
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Não consigo imaginar um político da Península Ibérica com esta linguagem:
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"many people are under the “delusion” that just because the UK has historically been one of the richest countries on earth, it will always remain so.
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Only if we “reboot and rebuild” the UK economy can the country’s future prosperity be assured, he said."
Only if we “reboot and rebuild” the UK economy can the country’s future prosperity be assured, he said."
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"“I think too many people in this country are living under the delusion that a prosperous past guarantees a prosperous future. But it isn’t written anywhere that this country deserves a place at the top table.."
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Por cá, ainda há dias, Mário Soares dizia que somos um país de futuro... por causa do nosso esforço e trabalho? Não, por causa da nossa história e localização geográfica.
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Que inveja...
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Trecho inicial retirado de "David Cameron: 'The world doesn't owe us a living'"
Somos todos alemães (parte VI)
Esta é uma afirmação antiga neste blogue, basta recordar "Somos todos alemães (parte V)"
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Sintomático que Merkel hoje a tenha repetido "«Princípios da economia alemã devem ser seguidos por todos»"
Está tudo relacionado
"Portugal entre os países onde o IVA mais subiu"
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"Sócrates é recordista europeu da subida dos impostos sobre trabalho"
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"O tira-teimas de 2011"
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"Sócrates discute crédito à economia com banqueiros"
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"Sócrates é recordista europeu da subida dos impostos sobre trabalho"
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"O tira-teimas de 2011"
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"Sócrates discute crédito à economia com banqueiros"
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Tudo consequências naturais de uma espiral de degradação decorrente do estertor de uma economia socialista normanda.
Sensory branding (parte II)
Já escrevemos aqui sobre o conceito de sensory branding: aqui e aqui.
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Pois bem, "Sensory branding from Singapore Airlines"
O choque chinês num país de moeda forte (parte VI)
Em linha com o segundo gráfico deste postal "O choque chinês num país de moeda forte (parte II)" (o título é sintomático e premonitório), em linha com este postal sobre o emprego e a produtividade (especial atenção ao quadrante C):
Este interessante artigo "Downsizing in German Chemical Manufacturing Industry during the 1990s. Why Small is Beautiful?" lança mais algumas pistas de reflexão sobre o jogo do gato e do rato e sobre como o choque chinês é enfrentável num país de moeda forte.
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"The 1990s have brought about severe competitive challenges and new rules of playing game in chemical industry. Freeman (1999) claims that the last decade was accompanied by great changes, with the massive restructuring as the key feature:
The days of the integrated chemical company were coming to an end, with companies abandoning noncore business segments in efforts to boost the creation of shareholder value. The reshaping of the industry had begun in the 1980s, but it was on a small scale compared to that in the 1990s.
The days of the integrated chemical company were coming to an end, with companies abandoning noncore business segments in efforts to boost the creation of shareholder value. The reshaping of the industry had begun in the 1980s, but it was on a small scale compared to that in the 1990s.
...
The German chemical industry have been doing tremendous job (Landau and Arora, 1999) and continues to do so in development of the global and national economies in terms of employment, investments and value added as reported by the President of the Verband der Chemischen Industrie e.V. (Association of the German Chemical Industry). In past several years, the industry has been downsizing, “right sizing,” and producing new companies through small mergers, megamergers, and spin-offs. The new business reality gives every reason to believe there will be further consolidation and subsequent downsizing in the chemical industry (Millenium Special Report, 1999). This is also confirmed by the data for German chemical industry for 1992–2004 period, which tells us that the average size, defined as the number of employees of the firm, has decreased by about 47% (from 813 to 433).
The German chemical industry have been doing tremendous job (Landau and Arora, 1999) and continues to do so in development of the global and national economies in terms of employment, investments and value added as reported by the President of the Verband der Chemischen Industrie e.V. (Association of the German Chemical Industry). In past several years, the industry has been downsizing, “right sizing,” and producing new companies through small mergers, megamergers, and spin-offs. The new business reality gives every reason to believe there will be further consolidation and subsequent downsizing in the chemical industry (Millenium Special Report, 1999). This is also confirmed by the data for German chemical industry for 1992–2004 period, which tells us that the average size, defined as the number of employees of the firm, has decreased by about 47% (from 813 to 433).
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This seems counterintuitive to the general trend of merges and acquisitions (Weston et al., 1999), and to the literature, which documents that relatively larger firms have better propensity
to survive, and that economical/technological situation has put considerable pressure on smaller firms (Swift, 1999). Then the natural question arises: “Why small is beautiful?”
to survive, and that economical/technological situation has put considerable pressure on smaller firms (Swift, 1999). Then the natural question arises: “Why small is beautiful?”
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The globalization has taken great pace during the 1990s and the “whales” of the traditional German manufacturing industries had to respond to changing environment in which production process could be transferred to nearby low-cost geographical locations. Audretsch and Elston (2006) claim that the dominant (largest) firms have reacted by substituting of technology and capital by labor as well as by locating the new plants outside Germany. In the chemical sector during 1991–1995 the domestic employment decreased by 80 thousands, while 14 thousands jobs were created by chemical firms outside Germany;
...
"Baily et al. (1996) check the conventional faith that the rise in productivity and dowsizing are linked through some microeconomic mechanism.
Authors find, though, that both dowsizers and upsizers increase in productivity and the relationship is quite complex and not clearcut. In their other paper, Baily et al. (2001) try to resolve the debate on cyclical nature of the labor productivity over time. They claim that the productivity of long-term downsizers tends to be quite considerable, much larger than that of long-run upsizers." (Moi ici: A melhoria disruptiva é mais rentável que a melhoria incremental)
Authors find, though, that both dowsizers and upsizers increase in productivity and the relationship is quite complex and not clearcut. In their other paper, Baily et al. (2001) try to resolve the debate on cyclical nature of the labor productivity over time. They claim that the productivity of long-term downsizers tends to be quite considerable, much larger than that of long-run upsizers." (Moi ici: A melhoria disruptiva é mais rentável que a melhoria incremental)
...
These findings suggest that for German chemical manufacturing firms improving technical efficiency has not been the first priority during the 1990s. Instead, they have been paying special attention to establishment of an optimal scale, while technical efficiency has been supported on a certain level.
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Bathelt (2000) identifies three types of German chemical firms: (i) semiflexible integrated firms, mainly medium-large and large sized, with main features being high degree of vertical and/or horizontal integration and limited product and process flexibility; (ii) conventionally specialized firms, mostly small and medium sized, which are characterized by a low degree of product and process flexibility; and (iii) flexible specialized firms, which are mostly small and can only be found in the narrow chemical subindustry (pigments, dyes, paints, and varnishes). Except for the third type of firms, which tries to achieve economies of scope to adjust to market-segmentation tendencies, the first two care about economies of scale by various production activities and by producing relatively long-term homogeneous goods."
...
Bathelt (2000) identifies three types of German chemical firms: (i) semiflexible integrated firms, mainly medium-large and large sized, with main features being high degree of vertical and/or horizontal integration and limited product and process flexibility; (ii) conventionally specialized firms, mostly small and medium sized, which are characterized by a low degree of product and process flexibility; and (iii) flexible specialized firms, which are mostly small and can only be found in the narrow chemical subindustry (pigments, dyes, paints, and varnishes). Except for the third type of firms, which tries to achieve economies of scope to adjust to market-segmentation tendencies, the first two care about economies of scale by various production activities and by producing relatively long-term homogeneous goods."
O jogo do gato e do rato (parte VI)
"Paul Krugman Explains The Unmistakable Link Between Inequality And Financial Crises"
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"His basic thesis: it's not an accident that the two "big ones" in American history have both occurred just as inequality reached extreme peaks."
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"His basic thesis: it's not an accident that the two "big ones" in American history have both occurred just as inequality reached extreme peaks."
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O que causa o aumento da desigualdade dos salários?
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A globalização!!!
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Basta recordar a parte V desta série.
segunda-feira, junho 28, 2010
Poupança alheia e paciência
"Primeiro, não se pode ancorar processos sustentáveis de crescimento em poupanças alheias, tipicamente volúveis. Segundo, não existem milagres instantâneos e indolores. O sucesso económico demora a conquistar-se, exigindo paciência, perseverança, consistência e constância."
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Trecho retirado de "Crescimento: a mãe de todas as soluções"
O jogo do gato e do rato (parte V)
Eis um artigo com conclusões em linha com o modelo de competição defendido neste espaço, "Rising Wage Inequality in Germany" de Johannes Gernandt e Friedhelm Pfeiffer.
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"Based on samples from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) 1984 to 2004, this paper investigates the evolution of wages and wage inequality in Germany. Between 1984 and 1994 wages for prime age dependent male workers increased on average by 23 percent and the wage distribution in West Germany was fairly stable. Between 1994 and 2004 average wages rose by about 8 percent in West Germany and 28 percent in East Germany. In this period wage inequality for prime age dependent males, measured by the ratio of the ninetieth to tenth percentile of the wage distribution, increased from 2.1 to 2.5 in West Germany and from 2.3 to 2.9 in East Germany.
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In West Germany rising wage inequality has occurred mainly in the lower part of the wage distribution, whereas in East Germany wage inequality predominantly rose in the upper part of the wage distribution."
In West Germany rising wage inequality has occurred mainly in the lower part of the wage distribution, whereas in East Germany wage inequality predominantly rose in the upper part of the wage distribution."
...
"Based on the rich GSOEP data the findings suggest that wage inequality in Germany started to increase after the economic downturn 1992/93.5 The significant rise in wage inequality in Germany is a phenomenon that seems not to be related to specific groups of workers as for example the self-employed, women or foreigners. Figure 1 show the evolution of wages between 1984 and 2004 for West Germany."
"For West Germany this implies a strong increase in inequality in a period with only moderate average wage growth."
...
"Figure 3 illustrates the wage distributions for workers in the overall and in the restricted samples for the years 1984, 1994 and 2004. For 1984 and, to some degree, for 1994 the figures indicate the well-known compressed distribution of German wages which is skewed to the right and shaped like a log-normal distribution. The 2004 figure, however, shows more dispersion and more symmetry. Apparently, compared to 1994, more workers earn both very low and also relatively high wages."
Voltemos ao nosso esquema habitual:
As empresas no quadrante A, para tentarem sobreviver, vão baixar salários nominais, aumentar horas de trabalho, reduzir regalias e direitos dos trabalhadores. Por exemplo, os trabalhadores da VW na Alemanha, que têm de competir com trabalhadores portugueses e eslovacos. (Como me recordou um meu cunhado esta semana, a VW ainda está na Alemanha na dimensão que está porque o estado da Baixa-Saxónia é o segundo maior accionista. As empresas do quadrante A, são empresas de grande dimensão, politicamente sensíveis, sempre sob a atenção dos media.
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As empresas do quadrante A são as que aumentam a sua produtividade sobretudo à custa da melhoria da eficiência obtida com a redução de custos e desperdícios.
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As empresas a que Hermann Simmon chama de "campeões escondidos" são pequenas empresas ágeis que operam sobretudo no quadrante D. As empresas do quadrante D são as que aumentam a sua produtividade sobretudo à custa do aumento do valor acrescentado dos bens produzidos, ou seja, o famoso numerador. Basta recordar Rosiello para perceber o poder de alavancagem que este tipo de aumento da produtividade permite. Os trabalhadores das empresas do quadrante D podem aumentar os seus trabalhadores sem porem em risco a sua competitividade.
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Trata-se mais uma vez, para os trabalhadores das empresas do quadrante A, a estória do "The Itchy & Scratchy Show" (quatro parte anteriores) como ainda há dias recordou o ministro TdS.
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Se não fosse o peso das empresas dos quadrantes D e C na economia alemã, como seria possível compatibilizar um aumento de 8% dos salários nominais na Alemanha no mesmo período em que os custos unitários de trabalho baixaram 20%.
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BTW, comparar com números por cá aqui.
domingo, junho 27, 2010
The Coherence Premium (parte II)
Continuado daqui.
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"Sustainable, superior returns accrue to companies that focus on what they do best. The truth is that simple, and yet it’s incredibly hard to internalize. It is the rare company indeed that focuses on “what we do better than anyone” in making every operating decision across every business unit and product line. Rarer still is the company that has aligned its differentiating internal capabilities with the right external market position. We call such companies “coherent.”
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Most companies don’t pass the coherence test because they pay too much attention to external positioning and not enough to internal capabilities. They succumb to intense pressure for top-line growth and chase business in markets where they don’t have the capabilities to sustain success." (Moi ici: Lesson #1: Do not play a strictly dominated strategy)
Most companies don’t pass the coherence test because they pay too much attention to external positioning and not enough to internal capabilities. They succumb to intense pressure for top-line growth and chase business in markets where they don’t have the capabilities to sustain success." (Moi ici: Lesson #1: Do not play a strictly dominated strategy)
...
"A capability is something you do well that customers value and competitors can’t beat. It’s more than an activity or a function: It’s the interconnection of people, knowledge, IT, tools,
and processes that enable a company to outexecute rivals on some important measure."
and processes that enable a company to outexecute rivals on some important measure."
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"A company becomes coherent only when its capabilities system is consciously chosen and implemented to support a focused strategic purpose, or way to play, and is aligned with the right product and service portfolio"
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Por que é tantas empresas continuam por não equacionar a construção desta filigrana de sinergias entre capacidades, competências e processos e parcerias?
Futurização
O semanário Expresso de ontem incluía um artigo intitulado "Colégios de elite perdem alunos" onde se pode ler:
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"Dificuldades económicas obrigam pais a cortar nas actividades e até a tirar os filhos das escolas privadas"
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Nada que não fosse previsível desde Setembro de 2007:
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sábado, junho 26, 2010
"The Coherence Premium" parte I
O subtítulo de um dos livros que escrevi é:
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Concentrar uma organização no que é essencial
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Defendemos e explicámos várias vezes neste espaço, a importância de:
- identificar claramente os clientes-alvo (quer utilizadores finais quer os donos "das prateleiras", os donos dos canais de distribuição que os servem);
- definir uma proposta de valor a oferecer-lhes.
A partir destes alicerces conceptuais, situados no exterior da organização (e uma organização, qualquer que ela seja, excepto a tribo e a família, só existe em função do serviço para algo que lhe é exterior) voltamos-nos para o interior e transformamos a nossa organização numa máquina obcecada em servir os clientes-alvo, os "donos das prateleiras" oferecendo a proposta de valor desenvolvida.
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Esta transformação passa por melhorar e optimizar os nossos processos críticos, os nossos processos estratégicos, para que sejamos mais eficazes e, por aumentar a eficiência dos nossos processos de contexto, para que não desperdicemos recursos sempre escassos no que não cria valor para os clientes-alvo ou para os "donos das prateleiras".
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Este percurso que acabo de retratar neste pequeno texto é defendido de uma forma interessante num artigo publicado pela Harvard Business Review neste mês de Junho com o título "The Coherence Premium" assinado por Paul Leinwand e Cesare Mainardi.
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Continua
Mudaria alguma coisa na conversa se o primeiro-ministro fosse outro?
"Change can only occur when the pattern of conversation changes because it is this that organises [people's] experience" - Ralph Stacey
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Assim, enquanto o discurso, enquanto a conversa se mantiver ao mesmo nível de sempre... não há mudança.
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Ontem, a esta hora, ouvia no noticiário da Antena 1 a síntese de um discurso do PR que dizia qualquer coisa como:
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"Vivemos num Estado que não consegue sustentar a Economia".
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Assim, enquanto o discurso, enquanto a conversa se mantiver ao mesmo nível de sempre... não há mudança.
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Ontem, a esta hora, ouvia no noticiário da Antena 1 a síntese de um discurso do PR que dizia qualquer coisa como:
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"Vivemos num Estado que não consegue sustentar a Economia".
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Como se o Estado suportasse a Economia, o Estado quando muito destrói a economia real, a que não vive à custa de conversas em salões com carpetes e tapetes milionários. O Estado na melhor das hipóteses facilita a vida à economia...
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Ontem, ao final da tarde, ao sair de Mangualde debaixo de um chuvada valente ouvi na rádio:
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"Muitas vezes me sinto sozinho a puxar pelas energias do país."
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Como se a micro-economia real precisasse que alguém a puxasse. A micro-economia real vive do seu trabalho e do seu esforço e sabe que sem trabalho não há sucesso, independentemente dos ocupantes de São Bento ou de Belém.
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BTW, a propósito desta notícia "PSD com dobro de intenções de voto em relação ao PS" mudaria alguma coisa na conversa se o primeiro-ministro fosse outro?
Poesia "Inventando o futuro"
Texto de Charles Handy:
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"You can't look at the future as a continuation of the past. The things that got you where you are are seldom the things that keep you there. But, on the other hand, if you don't know where you are coming from you will find it hard to go forward.
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Actually, we've got to see the future as a series of discontinuities, and we've got to learn to take these things in our stride..
I use the metaphor of the second curve, the second part of what is called the Sigmoid curve. The Sigmoid or S-shaped curve describes the way things go in life. They start out with a dip and then, with luck or good management, they grow and move up the curve, but eventually they wane. Everything wanes. It's true of empires, of corporations, of product lifecycles, of relationships, even of life itself. The way you get continued growth in the future is by building a new curve before the first one begins to descend, which means constantly being inventive and
creative.
creative.
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Recently it has been fashionable for companies to think of themselves as problem-solving organizations. That is actually wrong because, by the time you've discovered the problem and you're solving it, you're already out of date. You have to be ahead of the problem. You have to invent the world. You have to think `second-curve'.
Recently it has been fashionable for companies to think of themselves as problem-solving organizations. That is actually wrong because, by the time you've discovered the problem and you're solving it, you're already out of date. You have to be ahead of the problem. You have to invent the world. You have to think `second-curve'.
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But in order to recreate themselves for the future, organizations must be prepared to let go of the past. Otherwise they'll just get locked into their present curve and sooner or later they will come to an end. The trick is not to let go of the past all at once. You can't abandon the first curve until you have built the second one. So, for a time, the past and the future have to coexist in the present. And that's the pathway through the paradox.
But in order to recreate themselves for the future, organizations must be prepared to let go of the past. Otherwise they'll just get locked into their present curve and sooner or later they will come to an end. The trick is not to let go of the past all at once. You can't abandon the first curve until you have built the second one. So, for a time, the past and the future have to coexist in the present. And that's the pathway through the paradox.
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The way you make sense of the future, in organizations and in societies and in your own life, is by taking charge of the future. Not by responding to it.
The way you make sense of the future, in organizations and in societies and in your own life, is by taking charge of the future. Not by responding to it.
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I wrote a book called The Age of Unreason. The reason I chose that particular title was because George Bernard Shaw once wrote that the reasonable man responds to the world, while the unreasonable man tries to make the world respond to him. Therefore, he said, all progress (and I have to add all the disasters too) comes from the unreasonable person; the person who actually tries to change the world. What that means is that we can't wait for people to offer us secure jobs and long careers. We have to decide what kind of life we want to lead and go out and make it happen."
I wrote a book called The Age of Unreason. The reason I chose that particular title was because George Bernard Shaw once wrote that the reasonable man responds to the world, while the unreasonable man tries to make the world respond to him. Therefore, he said, all progress (and I have to add all the disasters too) comes from the unreasonable person; the person who actually tries to change the world. What that means is that we can't wait for people to offer us secure jobs and long careers. We have to decide what kind of life we want to lead and go out and make it happen."
Onde está a coerência?
Ontem, na última página do Jornal de Negócios, era possível ler um texto intitulado "A lição das SCUT" onde o autor conclui que estas auto-estradas são uma grande lição para os tempos futuros, uma prova da inexistência de almoços-grátis.
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Há quinze dias, no mesmo espaço, na mesma última página, o autor (o mesmo?), sob o título "Consumir mais sem importar mais" fazia a apologia das renováveis.
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Um dia, o autor há-de descobrir que o financiamento, a bolha das renováveis é outra estória semelhante à das SCUT!!!
Teoria dos jogos (parte II)
Lesson #1: Do not play a strictly dominated strategy
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É esta lição que permite sustentar uma afirmação como:
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"É insustentável desenvolver um negócio de genéricos em Portugal"
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É esta lição que permite sustentar uma afirmação como:
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"É insustentável desenvolver um negócio de genéricos em Portugal"
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"Nós consideramos, ao contrário do que muitas vezes parece, que o negócio de genéricos é para companhias de grande dimensão, para companhias que tenham economias de escala significativas.
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Quando a diferenciação se faz pelo menor preço, o negócio de genéricos para ser competitivo tem de ter uma visão internacional e as grandes companhias são alemãs, norte-americanas ... O negócio dos genéricos não é para as pequenas companhias, é um negócio de curto ou médio prazo..."
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Isto é pensamento estratégico, isto é ser realista e não ser parvo irracional como o bem-intencionado coiote sempre atrás do Bip-bip.
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Basta recordar a figura 6 e o meu baú de tesouros deprimentes.
sexta-feira, junho 25, 2010
Contrarian... as usual
A propósito de "Greves na China beneficiam têxteis portugueses" quanto mais melhorar a vida dos trabalhadores chineses menos as empresas portuguesas terão incentivos para subir na escala de valor.
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Haverá mais emprego mas mal pago.
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E, como reflectem todos os estudos sobre o tema, quando aumenta a dispersão de produtividade dentro de um sector, aumenta a desigualdade dos salários.
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As empresas a trabalhar na escala superior de valor poderão, escrevi poderão não escrevi irão, pagar salários superiores, até poderão ser pressionadas a pagar salários superiores.
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No entanto, as empresas que continuarem no negócio do preço não poderão pagar salários mais altos. Não será uma questão de vontade do patronato, será uma questão de dificuldade real e efectiva.
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A borboleta que luta para sair do casulo, se tiver ajuda de um compadecido humano... nunca conseguirá voar e morrerá.
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A borboleta que luta para sair do casulo e consegue desensarilhar-se sobe na escala de valor e triunfar.
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Passado vs Futuro
Já me aconteceu visitar uma organização e verificar que nos seus corredores, nas suas salas de reunião, nos seus espaços, se podem encontrar fotografias sobre a sua época "de ouro", sobre o seu passado glorioso.
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Lembrei-me disto, ontem durante uma viagem de comboio ao ler este texto de Charles Handy:
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"I would say remember the past, and celebrate it if you want to, but put it behind you. Don't let the past stand in the way of your future. Because the future is going to be different. And we have to unlearn the way we dealt with the past in order to deal with the future.
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Of course the past is important. We need a sense of history. But you can't walk into the future looking over your shoulder. You can't stumble backwards into the future.
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Of course the past is important. We need a sense of history. But you can't walk into the future looking over your shoulder. You can't stumble backwards into the future.
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If you go into a business and it has a display of its history, you should be worried. On the other hand, if you go into a business and it has a display of what the future might be, you should be excited.
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Because the great excitement of the future is that we can shape it.""
Teoria dos jogos
Lesson #1: Do not play a strictly dominated strategy meu Deus, tantas empresas que violam esta primeira lição para viverem em sobressalto permanente, em recuo permanente, tempo emprestado. Teimam em desempenhar o papel de formigas num piquenique
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Lesson #2: Rational choice, chosing a dominant strategy, can lead to outcomes that suck, ou seja, escolhas racionais por actores racionais podem levar a resultados indesejáveis... estão a ver onde isto nos leva?!
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Lesson #3: You can't get what you want, till you know what you want, quantas empresas não se afastam do quotidiano para reflectirem sobre onde estão e para onde vão.
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Lesson #4: Put yourself in others' shoes and try to figure out what they will do,
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O jogo do gato e do rato (parte IV)
Um autêntico "The Itchy & Scratchy Show"
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Voltemos à equação da produtividade:
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Em que custos podemos mexer?
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Ou nos custos fixos ou nos custos variáveis.
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Podemos também tentar aumentar o volume de produção.
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OK!
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Se reduzirmos os custos fixos em 1% que retorno é que obtemos a nível de lucro operacional? Um aumento de 2,3%!
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Se reduzirmos os custos variáveis em 1% que retorno é que obtemos a nível de lucro operacional? Um aumento de 7,8%!
Se aumentarmos o volume produzido que retorno é que obtemos a nível de lucro operacional? Um aumento de 3,3%!
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Valores retirados daqui.
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Comparemos estes ganhos de produtividade com aquele trecho de Daniel Gros:
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“But improvements in productivity are easily overwhelmed by changes in wages. While productivity growth usually is measured in fractions of a percentage point, wage increases have been much larger.”
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Há um artigo de James March que aborda o jogo, o equilíbrio, que as empresas têm de fazer entre a ‘exploration’ e a ‘exploitation’. Uma empresa que só trabalha no denominador da equação da produtividade só confia na ‘exploitation’ (arrisca-se a que mais tarde ou mais cedo alguém mexa no seu queijo!).
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Admitamos, então, que uma empresa num ano consegue, à custa do trabalho no denominador, aumentar a sua produtividade em 2,6%.
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O que vai acontecer?
Voltemos à equação da produtividade:
Vamos, por momentos, admitir que não se pode mexer no numerador, na criação de valor. Assim, só há uma forma de aumentar a produtividade: reduzindo os custos.
Em que custos podemos mexer?
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Ou nos custos fixos ou nos custos variáveis.
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Podemos também tentar aumentar o volume de produção.
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OK!
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Se reduzirmos os custos fixos em 1% que retorno é que obtemos a nível de lucro operacional? Um aumento de 2,3%!
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Se reduzirmos os custos variáveis em 1% que retorno é que obtemos a nível de lucro operacional? Um aumento de 7,8%!
Se aumentarmos o volume produzido que retorno é que obtemos a nível de lucro operacional? Um aumento de 3,3%!
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Valores retirados daqui.
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Comparemos estes ganhos de produtividade com aquele trecho de Daniel Gros:
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“But improvements in productivity are easily overwhelmed by changes in wages. While productivity growth usually is measured in fractions of a percentage point, wage increases have been much larger.”
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Há um artigo de James March que aborda o jogo, o equilíbrio, que as empresas têm de fazer entre a ‘exploration’ e a ‘exploitation’. Uma empresa que só trabalha no denominador da equação da produtividade só confia na ‘exploitation’ (arrisca-se a que mais tarde ou mais cedo alguém mexa no seu queijo!).
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Admitamos, então, que uma empresa num ano consegue, à custa do trabalho no denominador, aumentar a sua produtividade em 2,6%.
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O que vai acontecer?
Admitamos que metade dos ganhos de produtividade vai para aumento de salários. Como os salários são um custo fixo, entram como um aumento dos custos na equação da produtividade.
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Logo, um aumento dos salários contribui para a redução da competitividade (argumento do ministro e de Daniel Gros e esta é a essência do jogo do gato e do rato da produtividade conseguida à custa do denominador.
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Como é que os custos unitários de trabalho na Alemanha baixaram 20%? Como foi possível conseguir esse diferencial?
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Será que os alemães em massa viram os seus salários cortados sem mais nem menos?
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Continua.
Falta um pouco de "optimismo não documentado"
Leio Daniel Amaral no DE "A revolução" e fico a pensar:
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Falta um pouco de "optimismo não documentado", falta confiança na capacidade da micro-economia libertada, falta esperança nos actores anónimos que são a economia livre deste país, da que não tem tempo para andar no folclore das excursões ao estrangeiro à boleia dos governos ou dos presidentes, da que não tem tempo para ir ao Prós e Prós.
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Falta libertar a micro-economia do jugo normando...
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O príncipe João Sem Terra acordou?
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Quando é que o poder normando reconhece a sua incapacidade, capitula e assina uma Magna Carta com a sociedade que se quer livre?
Sugestões para elaborar painéis de indicadores por processo (parte II)
Continuado daqui.
Para o qual podemos equacionar os indicadores:
Se o tempo de paragem por avaria for muito elevado, para quem toma decisões era importante ter à mão gráficos como, por exemplo:
• Tempo de paragem por avaria por máquina;
• Tempo de paragem por avaria por motivo;
• Distribuição dos tempos de paragem por motivo;
• Tempo de paragem por avaria por turno.
Ou se o custo acumulado com as avarias for muito elevado, para quem toma decisões era importante ter à mão gráficos como, por exemplo:
• Custo das avarias por máquina;
• Custo das avarias por motivo;
• Distribuição dos custos de avaria por motivo
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Consideremos um outro processo, para reforçar esta ideia dos gráficos de apoio à leitura dos indicadores, por exemplo, para um processo “Tratar avaria”:
Para o qual podemos equacionar os indicadores:
Se o tempo de paragem por avaria for muito elevado, para quem toma decisões era importante ter à mão gráficos como, por exemplo:
• Tempo de paragem por avaria por máquina;
• Tempo de paragem por avaria por motivo;
• Distribuição dos tempos de paragem por motivo;
• Tempo de paragem por avaria por turno.
Ou se o custo acumulado com as avarias for muito elevado, para quem toma decisões era importante ter à mão gráficos como, por exemplo:
• Custo das avarias por máquina;
• Custo das avarias por motivo;
• Distribuição dos custos de avaria por motivo
quinta-feira, junho 24, 2010
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