Que rearranjos vão emergir?

A economia actual é isto:

Um mecânico italiano que esteve há dias na China a reparar máquinas e agora estava a reparar máquinas em várias empresas de Felgueiras.

Há dias no Twitter ironizei:

ainda bem que o coronavirus não se transmite através dos bens fabricados na China e em exposição brevemente nas prateleiras de Primavera-Verão

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) January 28, 2020

Agora em "When China Coughs, Supply Chains Fall Ill" publicado no Wall Street Journal de ontem:

"As the spread of the new coronavirus in China causes more factory shutdowns, the effect on global industrial supply chains could linger for years. China now makes up more than twice the share of global merchandise exports it did in 2003, when the SARS virus hit. Guangdong province alone exported more in 2018 than China did as a whole 17 years ago.
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Manufacturers already gripe about the effect of the Lunar New Year holiday, which falls in January or February, on their business as Chinese factories shutter. But the public-health response to the virus this year effectively means extending the holiday. China’s industrial output could be running at a similarly low level for a much longer period.
...
Global supply chains are considerably more complex than they were in 2003, shortly after China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. Even items with a marginal quantity of Chinese content will be affected as production is halted.
...
The current lockdown is of a scale beyond either SARS, floods in Thailand or the earthquakes in Japan. China’s industrial heft leaves global manufacturers in a quandary with no obvious parallel, even with shutdowns only just beginning. The impact may be felt for years to come."

Já no NYT li "Coronavirus Outbreak Tests World’s Dependence on China":

"Apple is rerouting supply chains. Ikea is closing its stores and paying staff members to stay home. Starbucks is warning of a financial blow. Ford and Toyota will idle some of their vast Chinese assembly plants for an extra week.
...
The mysterious coronavirus that has killed more than a hundred people and sickened thousands has virtually shut down one of the world’s most important growth engines. Desperate to slow the fast-moving virus, the Chinese authorities have extended the country’s national holiday to Feb. 3, and crippled land, rail and air transport. Entire cities have shut down.
...
Automakers like General Motors and Nissan plan to close their factories until the week of Feb. 3 to comply with the longer mandated holiday, while Toyota and Ford said this week that they would close some of their factories a week longer than that because of virus-related disruptions. Companies like G.M., Honeywell, Facebook and Bloomberg restricted travel for employees in China and established their own self-quarantine measures.
...
Wuhan in particular appeals to major companies because it is a major national transport hub. The auto industry, including General Motors, Honda, Nissan and many others, have set up shop there, and many of their suppliers have followed. It is the home to more than one third of all French investment in China.
...
In Thailand, Chinese sightseers spend nearly $18 billion annually, totaling about a quarter of tourist spending.
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“Chinese tourists are the No. 1 tourists to Thailand,” said Yuthasak Supasorn, the governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand."

Que impacte é que isto pode ter nas cadeias de fornecimento mundiais? Que rearranjos vão emergir?

Lidar com as restrições (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

A propósito de restrições, às vezes, o problema é a falta de restrições, a falta de foco. Eis um bom exemplo em "The Dolittle effect":

"Why is the new Dolittle movie so bad? Savaged by critics and viewers, it had:

• One of the most bankable movie stars in the world

• A story that had previously been the basis of two hit movies

• The best CGI houses in the world

• Unlimited time and money

I think the best way to understand why it failed is to look at the reasons above. Ironically, it’s these assets and lack of constraints that created the circumstances that allowed the movie to become a turkey."

E o que é a incapacidade de seleccionar um grupo de clientes-alvo senão uma incapacidade de assumir restrições?

Lidar com as restrições (parte II)

Na Parte I escrevemos:

"Quantas vezes só depois de encostadas à parede, só depois de terem perdido tudo, é que as empresas tentam o que parece absurdo, ou o que vai contra a formatação do mainstream e... resulta"

Primeiro este postal de 2014 "Curiosidade do dia" sobre a pêra-rocha em que o embargo russo era vista pelo sector como  um oportunidade. Depois, em 2015 este outro postal "Curiosidade do dia" dava conta da retoma das exportações de pêra-rocha.

Neste postal recente, "Dez anos de exportações - uma perspectiva" vemos que as exportações de fruta cresceram mais de 263%.

Entretanto, ontem li "Exportações de pera rocha sobem para os 90 milhões de euros em 2019":

"As exportações de pera rocha renderam entre janeiro e novembro de 2019 mais 16% em relação a 2018.
...
Nos últimos três anos, o setor da produção da pera rocha investiu 430 mil euros num projeto de promoção da fruta na Alemanha, Brasil, Espanha, França, Reino Unidos, Peru e China.
.
Nesse âmbito, a ANP participou em nove feiras internacionais em Espanha, Alemanha, China e Peru, trouxe 18 jornalistas, chefs e bloggers estrangeiros a visitar a região do Oeste, onde a fruta é produzida, deu a provar a pera em 1.730 voos da companhia aérea TAP com destino a Alemanha, França, Reino Unido e Espanha e efetuou uma campanha publicitária na capital francesa, com 700 mupis colocados de forma estratégica."

Monitoring risks - Frequency

Last Thursday I was asked how often to update the risk assessment and assessment in a quality management system according to ISO 9001: 2015. I gave an answer around this:

"At least annually, but that is not very effective, the more the risk based approach is embedded in the organization’s management system, the more frequently it should be performed. Every day, I see in newspapers external events that can generate risks and opportunities. For example, will this coronavirus crisis have an impact in your own organization? I try to implement the risk-based thinking in all management meetings, at several levels."

In the meantime, I had the opportunity to read an interesting article on risk and supply chains,"Supply chain risk management is back", and I saw the answer to the question from another perspective:

"A systematic classification of risks, and development of a related response strategy, is essential to improve supply-chain resilience strategically—while keeping required investment to a minimum. A simple framework can help by classifying risks on two axes: the vertical estimates to what extent a risk can be anticipated, while the horizontal quantifies the risk’s expected impact.

• “Manageable surprises” are difficult to anticipate but manageable in terms of impact.

• “Black swans” are hard to anticipate and severe in terms of impact.

• “Brewing storms” can be anticipated and will have a high impact once they materialize.

• “Business challenges” are typically low-impact risks that can be both anticipated and managed quite easily."

Each quadrant deserves a different treatment:

"For each of the quadrants, a specific set of response strategies can be developed. A reactive risk-management approach should be taken for risks that are difficult to predict, and a more proactive approach for those with higher predictability.

• Low-impact risks that are hard to anticipate, such as the bankruptcy of an individual supplier or a localized conflict in a country without major operations, can be accepted or avoided to a certain extent by diversifying operations. Systematically implementing a dual-sourcing strategy, through nominating new suppliers or negotiating a second source of supply from the same supplier, help mitigate this risk category.

• High-impact risks that are hard to anticipate, including natural disasters, terrorist attacks, or cyberattacks, can be managed by building strong crisis-management capabilities and resilience throughout the system. A supply-chain risk-management team can introduce a systemic risk-monitoring process which can be enhanced by regular scenario-planning exercises. Through keeping healthy reserves for parts with long recovery times, companies can prevent some supply-chain disruptions. Another way to mitigate risks which are difficult to anticipate is transferring risk to other parties: taking out insurance and introducing risk-related contract language are possible answers.

• Low-impact risks that are relatively easy to anticipate, such as labor disputes, regulatory changes, or changes in customer preferences (for minimal plastic usage or increased product sustainability, for example) can be managed proactively by increasing the robustness of the supply-chain system. The most important single measure, though, is solid training of the workforce to handle everyday risks. Encouraging employees to voice concerns about possible defects and disruptions helps create a general risk awareness as a first step to managing disruptions. IT systems and tools can then help to continuously monitor disruptive trends and events.

• High-impact risks that are relatively easy to anticipate, including Brexit, US–China trade regulations, or decarbonization targets, need the most attention. A systematic review of the supply-chain setup may be advisable. Possible response strategies include redefining the sourcing strategy by, say, raising the share of local suppliers, or revisiting the manufacturing footprint by moving some manufacturing operations out of certain areas. Establishing CKD operations in countries with high import taxes on finished products can be another option. The review of the inventory build-up strategy helps optimize service levels by increasing safety-stock levels for critical components which cannot be sourced from alternative locations. In some cases, preparing for changes in demand can be an appropriate answer."

An idea to improve risk management efficiency is to give different attention depending on the greater or lesser capacity for anticipation and the greater or lesser impact of the risk.

Now, I'm remembering an example from Tom Peters in the book "Re-Imagine" about Dell answer to problems in the supply chain... managing risks wasn't managing risks, it was doing normal business.

Em quem é que eles vão votar?

Ontem ao ler o tweet de resposta:

O Chega irá crescer sobretudo onde havia boas votações do pcp. É transferência directa.

— Gabriel Silva (@GabrielfSilva) January 30, 2020

Fiz logo a ponte para o pensamento que me percorria enquanto lia "Lab-grown food will soon destroy farming – and save the planet".

Lembram-se da série sobre o avanço do partido de Salvini no terreno onde a esquerda operária era forte? Aqui: Curiosidade do dia - comunismo e Chega (parte III).

Leiam o artigo do Guardian, jornal conotado com o Labour, e comecem a pensar nos agricultores ingleses:

"Before long, most of our food will come neither from animals nor plants, but from unicellular life.
...
Research by the thinktank RethinkX suggests that proteins from precision fermentation will be around 10 times cheaper than animal protein by 2035. The result, it says, will be the near-complete collapse of the livestock industry.
...
RethinkX envisages an extremely rapid “death spiral” in the livestock industry.
...
Dairy farming in the United States, it claims, will be “all but bankrupt by 2030”. It believes that the American beef industry’s revenues will fall by 90% by 2035."

Em quem é que eles vão votar?

Lidar com as restrições

Ontem de manhã li duas vezes este artigo "Constraints Don’t Have to Be Constraining"

"The goal of the session was for students to hone their entrepre­neurial instincts by trying to identify opportunities, limited by the $5 they had been given. And in fact, they were very entrepreneurial.
...
But which teams made the most in profit? Those that didn’t use the $5 at all.
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It’s a lesson they are all amazed to learn: Those who come back with the highest profits — one year, a team earned more than $4,000 — are typically the ones who never even use the seed money. The teams that seem to generate the greatest profit are those who look at the resources at their disposal through a completely different lens.
...
“You put me at zero, [and] there is no limit to what I can achieve.”
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We have a tendency to focus on constraints and to think of them as a kind of adversity. But in fact, constraints can be a form of advantage. When we own our constraints, magical things can happen — and the constraints can become tools to propel us forward.
...
 You see, focusing on the $5 limits the ideas that are possible.
...
Constraints don’t have to be constraining. Those who assumed that they had nothing in start‑up capital did better. They didn’t see the $5 as a crutch, so they focused on the opportunity instead of the con­straint. That freed them up to think about what other assets they did have, and pushed them to look beyond $5 problems to more valuable opportunities. The lesson: If we let others dictate our constraints, then we can’t dictate our own opportunities.
...
Constraints are inevitable, yes. But rather than accepting them, we can discover and pay attention to them. We can recognize their value. In many ways, we need them. When we notice constraints but we don’t let them define our possibilities, we can actually flip them to create an advantage."

Comecemos pelo: “You put me at zero, [and] there is no limit to what I can achieve.”
Há dias ao ler "The Essentials of Theory U: Core Principles and Applications" de Otto Scharmer o autor recorda o dia em que adolescente saiu da escola antes da hora e chegou a tempo de ver o que restava da casa com 350 anos, onde tinha nascido e vivia, a desaparecer num incêndio. Então, o autor recorda este pensamento:

“As I stood there, taking in the heat of the fire and feeling time slow down, I realized how attached I had been to all the things destroyed by the fire. Everything I thought I was had dissolved. Everything? No, perhaps not everything, for I felt that a tiny element of myself still existed. Somebody was still there, watching all this. Who?
At that moment I realized there was another dimension of myself that I hadn’t previously been aware of, a dimension that related to my future possibilities. At that moment, I felt drawn upward, above my physical body, and began watching the scene from that elevated place. I felt my mind quieting and expanding in a moment of unparalleled clarity. I was not the person I had thought I was. My real self was not attached to all the material possessions smoldering inside the ruins. I suddenly knew that I, my true Self, was still alive! It was this “I” that was the Seer. And this Seer was more alive, more awake, more acutely present than the “I” that I had known before. No longer weighed down by the material possessions the fire had just consumed, with everything gone, I was lighter and free, released to encounter the other part of myself, the part that drew me into the future—into my future—into a world waiting for me to bring it into reality.”

Quantas vezes só depois de encostadas à parede, só depois de terem perdido tudo, é que as empresas tentam o que parece absurdo, ou o que vai contra a formatação do mainstream e... resulta?

 E acerca do: "We have a tendency to focus on constraints and to think of them as a kind of adversity." E o que é assumir uma estratégia senão criar uma restrição para nos beneficiar? Como aprendi com Stephen Covey: Não é o que nos acontece que conta. É o que decidimos fazer com o que nos acontece. Adversidade ou oportunidade não é uma característica do que nos aparece no caminho, mas uma classificação que nós atribuímos.

Por fim, o truque principal: "When we notice constraints but we don’t let them define our possibilities, we can actually flip them to create an advantage."

O futuro do retalho

"Where we find ourselves today is at the end of the beginning of e-commerce. In 2019 a little more than $3 trillion dollars in global retail was transacted online and was largely comprised of the sorts of products that are relatively simple to transact — electronics, airline and event tickets, shoes, and a range of other commodity items. However, the outstanding opportunity is $27 trillion remaining in the global retail economy, including things that are fundamentally more complex purchases.
...
In the future, all but the most convenience-based retailers will begin to use their stores as media to acquire customers and their media platforms as stores to transact sales.
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Put another way, media is now a cost of sales and rent is now a cost of customer acquisition. Retailers that miss or ignore this shift will do so at their peril.
...
Media is not merely becoming the store, it's becoming the ultimate store.
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Conversely, however, physical stores are going through a very different but corresponding evolution. Brick-and-mortar stores are no longer simply a channel for the distribution of products. They no longer act as the final point in the purchase funnel.
...
Physical stores are becoming a powerful media channel, and very often the first point of contact between brands and consumers. As consumers become increasingly technologically entrenched, they'll crave far more and better physical retail experiences. And so brick-and-mortar spaces will offer retailers and brands the opportunity to draw the consumer into the brand story, deliver a remarkable and immersive brand and product experience, and ultimately galvanize their relationship with consumers.
...
In essence, the unique selling process you create becomes as much of a product as the product itself." 

Trechos retirados de "The future of retail: What 2020 and beyond will bring to the industry"

Aprender com o futuro (parte III)

Parte II e parte I.

Como diz Otto Scharmer, aprender com o futuro à medida que este emerge:

"According to a recent study, two out of ten German companies with more than 100 employees is already using 3D printing and another 23 % are planning to do so. Germany's leading industries, i.e. automotive, mechanical engineering and chemicals, are pioneers in 3D printing.
...
The representative study concludes that 3D printing is one of the most important topics in the German economy. According to the study 19 % of all German companies with more than 100 employees, has already started to use additive manufacturing.
...
According to the Bitkom study, the automotive industry is also a pioneer in 3D printing, with 41 % (22 % in 2017) of companies already using it. Currently, car manufacturers are using additive technologies mainly for prototype and tool making. Trials of additive series production are conducted more frequently.
...
38 % of machine and plant manufacturers are already using 3D printing. In 2017, only 26 % of the companies used this technology. This increase can partly be explained by the possibility of optimizing the functionality of additively manufactured components, such as optimized cooling structures.
...
In the chemical and pharmaceutical industries, 38 % of companies also make use of additive manufacturing - twice as many as in 2017 (19 %)."

Impressionante a velocidade a que a coisa se propaga.

Que considerações estratégicas levam as empresas a usar a impressão 3D?

Pelo menos 3 ou 4 destes motivos parecem-me muito interessantes como meios de aprendizagem acerca do futuro.

Como não fazer a ponte para este postal "Para reflexão" e para "Se eu fosse líder de um adjudicatário, ou de uma entidade executante, e quisesse ter um papel nesse futuro, montaria 3 ou 4, ou 5 ou 10 dessas casas auto-suficientes, e usaria-as como cobaias, para perceber", para aprender com o futuro que está a emergir e desenvolver uma vantagem competitiva.

Trechos iniciais retirados de "3D Printing is One of the Most Important Economic Topics"

Espuma dos dias

"Taxa de desemprego terminou o ano de 2018 estabilizada nos 6,7% da população ativa, indica o INE" (30.01.2019)

"A taxa de desemprego subiu para 6,9% em dezembro de 2019, depois de se ter fixado em 6,7% em novembro, segundo dados divulgados pelo Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE), esta quarta-feira." (29.01.2020)

Já agora:

"O INE revela ainda que a taxa de desemprego dos jovens foi estimada em 19,3% e verificou um acréscimo de 0,6 p.p. em relação ao mês precedente, enquanto “a taxa de desemprego dos adultos foi estimada em 5,9%, o que corresponde a um aumento de 0,1 p.p. relativamente ao mês anterior”.
.
Os dados definitivos relativos a novembro de 2019 mostram que a população desempregada foi de 348,9 mil pessoas, um aumento de 9,8 mil e de 3,6 mil por comparação com novembro de 2018. “Aquele valor representa uma revisão em alta de 0,4% (1,5 mil) da estimativa provisória divulgada há um mês”, acrescenta.
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A estimativa rápida revela que em dezembro de 2019, a população desempregada, cuja estimativa provisória foi de 357,7 mil pessoas, teve um acréscimo de 8,8 mil em relação ao mês anterior e de 4,3% 14,8 mil por comparação com o mês homólogo de 2018."

Fugir da race-to-the-bottom

O amigo @walternatez chamou-me a atenção para este artigo muito interessante:

How millions of French shoppers are rejecting cut-price capitalism https://t.co/wl767AfCZQ cc @ccz1

— walter, lider impopular (@walternatez) January 28, 2020

Há uma frase acerca do leite que já citei aqui muitas vezes:

"Milk is the ultimate low-involvement category, and it shows. Only 10% of the international sample (in Denmark, Germany and Spain the number is less than 5%) would expect the private label version to be of a lesser quality."

Cito-a, embora não a pratique. Há muitos anos que prefiro leite dos Açores.

Outra citação deste blogue é:

"When something is commoditized, an adjacent market becomes valuable"

Como fugir à comoditização? Apostando na diferenciação. Recordo este exemplo francês do leite integral que descrevi no ano passado em "Cambão versus estratégias baseadas nos clientes-alvo".

O artigo conta uma estória sobre como fugir da race-to-the-bottom:

"“Someone said, would I please have a look at milk,” Chabanne said. “So I did. It was an
absolute disaster. Dairy farmers were desperate, losing money on every litre; prices werebeing driven down mercilessly by the big retail groups.”
Chabanne did the arithmetic: a mere eight cents (6.8p) a litre was the difference between
a milk producer going bust (or worse: the suicide rate among French dairy farmers is30% higher than in the general population) and making a decent living. [Moi ici: A distribuição grande consegue este poder negocial porque há produtores muito grandes que conseguem ganhar dinheiro mesmo com preços muito baixos. Recordo o tamanho médio das produções leiteiras em Portugal e na Europa. No texto sobre Portugal escrevi "Explorações com menos de 10 cabeças podem ser rentáveis, não podem é seguir o mesmo modelo de negócio das que praticam a produção à escala industrial."]
...
“The average French consumer buys 50 litres of milk a year,” he said. “That meant that if consumers spent just €4 more on their milk per year, the producer might actually survive. I was convinced people would be prepared to do that.”
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His hunch has proved right. French consumers have bought 123m litres of milk labelled C’est qui le patron?! (Who’s the boss?) since its launch in November 2016, making it the fourth-biggest milk brand in France, outsold only by the most cut-price supermarket-own brands. [Moi ici: Como não recordar o tema da polarização dos mercados]
...
As with all of the cooperative’s products, neither was advertised on TV, promoted instore or pushed by a sales team. [Moi ici: Notável]
...
The basic assumption by supermarkets is that all consumers want competitively priced produce. The cheaper, the better. CQLP might have just rewritten that rule. [Moi ici: Como não recordar a ideia de que quem trabalha prefere trabalhar para uma empresa que dê sentido ao seu esforço. Como não recordar que na língua inglesa "patron", patrono, é também sinónimo de cliente regular. Aquele que patroniza]
...
In just three years, CQLP has won over nearly 11.5 million French consumers – about one in five adults. It has also boosted the incomes of more than 3,000 farmers and manufacturers, all of whom benefit from the pledge emblazoned in big, bold capitals on the brand’s packaging: “This product pays its producer a fair price.”
...
C’est qui le patron?! is “basically about consumers both taking control of what’s on our plates, and supporting producers”, he said. “There will always be people, for all kinds of reasons, for whom price matters most. But there are also more and more who feel maybe slightly guilty when they shop for food – and would like to do better.”"

Lembrei-me da estória dos pêssegos:

"A informação que o gerente me deu não devia estar escondida. A caixa de pêssegos devia ter uma foto do agricultor, um mapa da região onde foram produzidos e uma mensagem pessoal dele para os consumidores.
.
Voltando ao segundo tweet, citado lá em cima, o século XX enterrou-nos no Normalistão, encarcerou-nos num modelo mental em que só o preço conta, e só nos ensinou uma forma de fazer preços: custo mais uma margem.
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No Estranhistão, os actores económicos vão aprender que o preço não tem nada a ver com o custo e tudo a ver com o valor percepcionado pelos clientes-alvo."

Aprender com o futuro (parte II)

 Parte I.

“Understanding process means to understand the making of our social relationships. If you want to change a stakeholder relationship from, say, dysfunctional to helpful, you cannot just order people to do it. You have to intervene further upstream in the process of social reality creation. You have to change the making of that relationship from one mode to another—for example, from reactive to co-creative.
...
Often in organizations you see CEOs and executives who fail to get that. They think they can create behavioral change just by making speeches and pushing tools onto the organization. Tools are important. But they are also overrated because they are so visible. But what is usually underrated is all the stuff that is invisible to the eye—for example, the less visible elements of a good holding space: intention, attention, and the subtle qualities of deep listening. Building a good container means to build a good holding space for a generative social process.
...
And just as the organic farmer depends completely on the living quality of the soil, social pioneers depend on the living quality of the social field. I define social field as the quality of relationships that give rise to patterns of thinking, conversing, and organizing, which in turn produce practical results.
And just as the farmer cannot “drive” a plant to grow faster, a leader or change maker in an organization or a community cannot force practical results. Instead, attention must be focused on improving the quality of the soil. What is the quality of the social soil? It is the quality of relationships among individuals, teams, and institutions that give rise to collective behavior and practical results.
...
For example: the quality of my listening co-shapes how the conversation unfolds. Or, speaking more generally, the quality of results in any social system is a function of the consciousness from which the people in that system operate. Boiled down to three words, the idea can be expressed as form follows consciousness.
...
Listening is probably the most underrated leadership skill. At the heart of most examples of colossal leadership failures—which are in no short supply—leaders are often unable to connect with and make sense of the “VUCA” world around them; that is, a world defined by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity.
Listening, however, is not only important to leadership. If you are not a good listener, there is no way that you can develop real mastery in any discipline.
The most consistent feedback we have received from the hundreds of workshops, programs, and innovation journeys we have facilitated is this: Shifting your mode of listening is life-changing. Shifting how you listen, the way you pay attention, sounds like a really small change. But here is the thing: Changing how you listen means that you change how you experience relationships and the world. And if you change that, you change, well, EVERYTHING.”

Ao ler estes trechos vieram-me à memória as imagens que visualizei no Twitter há dias:

In case you missed it, video of the week: Dutch PM checks his bike into a big underground parking place. Attendant (of Kurdish origin) is amazed: “He has to check in and out like a normal person! This is how you run a country. I’m never leaving” pic.twitter.com/49aGdWH2Tx

— Ben Coates (@bencoates1) January 25, 2020

E reli " It is the quality of relationships among individuals, teams, and institutions that give rise to collective behavior and practical results."

Ainda ontem, durante um telefonema, recordei esta estória "Crédito fácil e barato", sem "intention, attention, and the subtle qualities of deep listening" como criar o terreno para uma mudança real?

Trechos retirados de "The Essentials of Theory U: Core Principles and Applications" de Otto Scharmer.

Demografia e segunda-mão

Ontem ouvi grande parte deste podcast, "Adam Minter on Secondhand" e fiquei admirado com os milhões de dólares envolvidos no negócio dos materiais em segunda-mão. À medida que a onda demográfica avança cada vez mais pessoas optam por mudar para casas mais pequenas e desfazer-se de muitos dos seus bens. Algo semelhante ao que li sobre o que acontece no Japão aos bens dos idosos falecidos. Recordo "Dying Alone in Japan: The Industry Devoted to What’s Left Behind" que referi em "Negócio de futuro".

Entretanto, antes tinha lido "By 2023, the secondhand clothes market will double to $51 billion. Here’s why".

Também recordo:

• Compras em segunda-mão (Março de 2019)
• Estratégia, Economia Circular, Novos Modelos de Negócio (Dezembro de 2019)

E:

• E a demografia? (Junho de 2019)
• Demografia e clientes-alvo (Janeiro de 2020)

Talvez nesta Europa, ainda mais envelhecida que os Estados Unidos, e para onde exportamos tanto do nosso calçado, este factor também seja relevante para se juntar à lista:

• Comoditização da posição baseada na flexibilidade e rapidez;
• Deterioração do actual modelo de negócio baseado nas feiras;
• Envelhecimento dos antigos clientes-alvo.

Aprender com o futuro (parte I)

Depois de ter visto os vídeos apresentados em "Generative Listening" fui em busca da bibliografia de Otto Scharmer e fixei-me em dois títulos:

• Theory U: Leading from the Future as It Emerges
• The Essentials of Theory U: Core Principles and Applications

O primeiro título tem tudo a ver com as conversas oxigenadoras... e também com o tema do calçado e do têxtil precisarem de uma nova abordagem, para ultrapassarem um modelo que parece que ficou fora do seu prazo de validade. Daí o "leading from the future as it emerges"... o futuro agir como a causa... o retorno ao bom velho Ortega y Gasset "O meu presente não existe senão graças ao meu futuro".

Entretanto, optei pela leitura do "The Essentials of Theory U: Core Principles and Applications" porque aparece como um resumo das ideias do autor. Ontem de manhã, apesar da chuva, mergulhei numa caminhada e leitura:

“We live in a moment of profound possibility and disruption. A moment that is marked by the dying of an old mindset and logic of organizing. And one that is marked by the rise of a new awareness and way of activating generative social fields. [Moi ici: Mais tarde o autor descreve o significado deste termo] What is dying and disintegrating is a world of Me First, bigger is better, and special interest group-driven decision making that has led us into a state of organized irresponsibility. [Moi ici: Até aqui o bigger is better a levar tareia. A malta que se reúne nos Encontros da Junqueira continua mergulhada no século XX]
What is being born is less clear. It has to do with shifting our consciousness from ego-system to eco-system awareness—an awareness that attends to the well-being of all.  [Moi ici: Tudo acerca dos ecossistemas do negócio e da regra de maximização do bem comum]
...
 [Moi ici: Corro o risco de usar e abusar do exemplo de Zapatero que ainda há dias referi em "O paradoxo dos peritos", mas reparem no trech que se segue] My first insight is quite elemental. There are two different sources of learning: (1) learning by reflecting on the past and (2) learning by sensing and actualizing emerging future possibilities.
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All traditional organizational learning methods operate with the same learning model: learning by reflecting on past experiences. But then I saw time and again that in real organizations most leaders face challenges that cannot be responded to just by reflecting on the past. Sometimes past experiences are not particularly helpful. Sometimes they are the very obstacles that keep a team from looking at a situation with fresh eyes.
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In other words, learning from the past is necessary but not sufficient. All disruptive challenges require us to go further. They require us to slow down, stop, sense the bigger driving forces of change, let go of the past and let come the future that wants to emerge.
But what does it take to learn from the emerging future? When I started to ask this question, many people looked at me with a blank stare: “Learning from the future? What are you talking about?” Many told me it was a wrongheaded question.
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Yet it was that very question that has organized my research journey for more than two decades. What sets us apart as human beings is that we can connect to the emerging future. That is who we are.   We can break the patterns of the past and create new patterns at scale.
...
Let me say this in different words. We have the gift to engage with two very different qualities and streams of time. One of them is a quality of the present moment that is basically an extension of the past. The present moment is shaped by what has been. The second is a quality of the present moment that functions as a gateway to a field of future possibilities. The present moment is shaped by what is wanting to emerge. [Moi ici: Ah! Ortega y Gasset] That quality of time, if connected to, operates from presencing the highest future potential. The word presencing blends “sensing” with “presence.” It means to sense and actualize one’s highest future potential. Whenever we deal with disruption, it is this second stream of time that matters most. Because without that connection we tend to end up as victims rather than co-shapers of disruption.”

Lembram-se de Boyd e da rapidez? Quando não se conhece o futuro, quando se procura aprender com o futuro que está a emergir, a rapidez é fundamental, e as organizações são tanto mais rápidas quanto mais colaborativa for a aprendizagem de todos e por todos. Não chega o líder iluminado.

Continua.

Generative Listening

Depois de escrever o último postal, "Start moving in some general direction", fiquei a matutar no postal de 2007, "Liderança = energia + movimento":

"The plan (or map) will not of itself actually tell them the route to take: the job of the leader in this situation is one of instilling some confidence in people to start them moving in some general direction, and to be sure that they look closely at cues created by their action, so that they learn where they are and where they want to be. When there is uncertainty or, more properly, equivocality in the environment, intelligent choices may be difficult; such situations put a premium on the robustness of the adaptive procedures rather than of the "map", the strategy or the organization."

Depois, fui ver um filme que o meu parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras me mandou. Gostei tanto dele que ainda fui à procura de outro:

"Start moving in some general direction"

Em 2014 desenhei esta figura para o postal "3 momentos na evolução do sector do calçado"

Sábado ao ler "Technology Reemergence: Creating New Value for Old Technologies in Swiss Mechanical Watchmaking, 1970-2008" de Ryan Raffaelli, publicado por Administrative Science Quarterly 1–43 (2018) encontrei este outro gráfico:

A introdução merece ser aqui registada por incluir tópicos queridos a este blogue:

"This article uses a study of the Swiss mechanical watch industry to build theory about how a legacy technology, instead of being supplanted by a new dominant design as current theory would predict, is able to reemerge and achieve new market growth. The introduction of the battery-powered quartz watch in the 1970s made mechanical watches largely obsolete, but by 2008 the Swiss mechanical watchmaking industry had rematerialized to become the world’s leading exporter (in monetary value) of watches.
...
Watchmakers redefined and combined values of craftsmanship, luxury, and precision to create new meanings and values for mechanical watch technology; repositioned the mechanical watch as an identity and status marker; temporally distanced themselves from the period of the discontinuous quartz technology by recalling their founding and more successful past and connecting it to the future; and used conceptual bridges such as analogies and metaphors to help employees and consumers understand the new meanings. They redefined market boundaries by reclaiming the competitive set, rebuilding the community of mechanical watchmakers, and mobilizing groups of enthusiast consumers who valued the mechanical watch. For mechanical watchmakers, reemergence culminated in competitive and consumer differentiation that ushered in reinvestment in innovation and substantive and sustained demand growth for the legacy technology."

E recordo uma frase citada aqui no blogue pela primeira vez em 2013:

"When something is commoditized, an adjacent market becomes valuable" 

"Schumpeter (1934) argued that the forces of creative destruction overturn existing market structures and force the dismantling of old technologies, as well as their applications in products, processes, and practices. For decades, scholars have linked industry evolution to technology cycles in which a dominant technology is displaced by a new one that initiates a new regime. Prevailing theory emphasizes technological displacement, assuming that older technologies disappear when newer ones arrive: ‘‘The dying technology provides the compost, which allows its own seeds, its own variants, to grow and thrive’’.
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Yet displacement is not inevitable. Market demand for some legacy technologies—products such as sailing ships, vinyl records, fountain pens, and streetcars—declined and then reemerged. This study examines the possibility that demand for some legacy technologies may not die away but persist in a generative form that permits sizeable market expansion. Existing scholarship, however, leaves little room for a legacy technology in a field or industry to reemerge. [Moi ici: Como não recordar a tríade]
...
this paper examines how a legacy technology, and the organizations and community that support it, achieves substantive and sustained market growth following the introduction of a new dominant design."

O artigo merece mais uns comentários, mas para já voltemos ao calçado e à situação actual. Quer pela comoditização da sua posição baseada na flexibilidade e rapidez, quer pela deterioração do actual modelo de negócio, as empresas precisam de voltar a fazer como os soldados com o mapa falso, meter os pés ao caminho, e descobrir/construir o caminho.

Give me a break!

Custa-me escrever este tipo de artigo em que digo mal de quem pede a baixa de impostos, mas tem de ser.

No postal "I wonder..." que escrevi em Julho de 2008 criticava um hotel de 5 estrelas que cobrava 449€ por noite e que tinha uma promoção em que pagava as portagens de auto-estrada aos clientes. Criticava esse hotel por não conhecer os seus clientes-alvo. Em Janeiro de 2012 dava um exemplo de um outro hotel com uma outra abordagem, muito mais adequada aos seus clientes-alvo.

Ontem à noite li este artigo "IVA no golfe mais baixo pode atrair mais turistas para Portugal". Uma pessoa lê estes artigos e pensa:

- Esta gente é parva? Não, esta gente quer fazer de nós parvos!!!

Ora vejamos, comparem o início e o final do parágrafo:

"Os praticantes de golfe são dos turistas que gastam mais nos países por onde passam e a atividade desportiva ajuda também a combater um dos desafios que o turismo em Portugal enfrenta: a sazonalidade. Mas, neste campeonato, Portugal – que tem mais de 90 campos de golfe – não joga em pé de igualdade: “Há países que têm um IVA mais baixo para o golfe, como Países Baixos, Suécia e Polónia. É uma atividade em que os países concorrem uns com os outros; tens de concorrer com Espanha, Turquia e outros. A diferença na taxa do IVA entre as várias geografias faz uma grande diferença no preço”

E mais à frente:

"Portugal foi eleito em 2018, pela quinta vez, o melhor destino de golfe do mundo. O Algarve – onde estão localizados perto de metade dos campos – é o melhor destino do mundo para este desporto em 2020"

E ainda:

"Estes jogadores “ficam talvez por uma semana, em bons hotéis e gastam dinheiro em alimentação e museus. Os golfistas são dos turistas que gastam mais em termos mundiais. É por isso que a indústria do golfe é tão interessante. Os espanhóis entenderam isso muito bem, fazendo pacotes combinados para darem um IVA mais baixo. Talvez fosse uma boa ideia para Portugal”, diz Klootwijk" 

O senhor Lodewijk Klootwijk, secretário-geral da Golf Course Association of Europe (GCAE), não é obrigado a saber, mas ao menos a associação podia ter algum apoio de assessoria em estratégia.

Dois tópicos: Quem são os clientes-alvo do turismo de golfe em Portugal? Qual o posicionamento do golfe de Portugal?

Vamos aos clientes-alvo:

• Acham mesmo que um cliente-alvo que escolhe bons hotéis e gasta muito está preocupado com o IVA?
• Acham mesmo que o melhor destino de golfe do mundo tem de ter um IVA baixo para captar turistas ricos?

Acham que o turista que faz golfe na Holanda escolhe a Holanda por ter um IVA mais baixo? Acham que o turista que faz golfe na Holanda em Janeiro e o que faz golfe em Portugal em Janeiro usam o IVA como critério?

Give me a break.

Costumo dizer que os maiores inimigos do liberalismo são alguns liberais, pedem coisas que não só são impossíveis no imediato como metem medo aos não liberais, e o que devia ser um processo evolutivo acaba por nunca acontecer. Também posso dizer que os maiores inimigos da descida dos impostos são os argumentos usados pelos defensores das descidas de impostos.

Pedofilia empresarial de topo

Lembram-se disto:

Agora atentem nisto, retirado do artigo "As AppleMorphs, A Cost-Cutter Rises" publicado a 24 de Janeiro último no Wall Street Journal:

"To understand Apple Inc.'s evolving place in the tech world, consider that one of its most important executives today is a guy whose job is badgering suppliers to get costs down.
.
Tony Blevins, vice president of procurement, will stop at little to get a favorable deal. He has paraded manufacturers past competitors in Apple's lobby and spurned a UPS contract by sending it back to UPS executives through FedEx. He persuaded subcontractors not to pay a chip maker that Apple was in litigation with, depriving the chip company of $8 billion, according to court documents and people who recall the case."

Isto é pedofilia empresarial de topo.

PME cuidado com a pedofilia empresarial quando lidam com uma empresa muito maior.

Isto não augura nada de bom. Quando o momento chegar, muitas facas sairão debaixo das túnicas...

Quanto mais esta cultura ascender na hierarquia, menos espaço haverá para os criativos na hierarquia. É assim que começa o hollowing, que acaba em carcaças ocas de aristocratas arruinados.

Fugir do plancton

Ao longo dos anos tenho seguido notícias sobre a Procter & Gamble. Por exemplo, em Agosto de 2014 escrevi aqui "Porque não somos plankton...". Uma corporação que ao longo dos anos se tem livrado de muitas marcas.

Acerca deste tipo de empresas, tenho escrito sobre a suckiness dos gigantes.

Por isso, foi com interesse que li este artigo no Wall Street Journal de ontem, "P&G Continues to Ride the Shift to Premium Products":

"“We’re looking, as we innovate, to be able to modestly [increase] price and still build value,” he said. “These results required us to overcome several challenges,” he said, citing global economic and political volatility and intensifying competition.
...
P&G’s turnaround has been driven by higher prices, new products and a leaner portfolio of brands. The company has shed mass-market beauty brands and led the industry in a move to raise prices to offset commodity costs and fatten profit margins."

Muito interessante e significativo perceber que um gigante deste calibre descobriu o poder da subida de preços, o Evangelho do Valor.

Gente não fragilista

No Jornal de Negócios do passado dia 23 de Janeiro no artigo "Jesus salvou têxtil, ficou sem a Zara e ganhou Boss e Hilfiger" sublinhei:

"A Círculos & Contrastes, que acabou por falir, tinha um único cliente, a gigante espanhola Inditex, cuja confiança teve de ser reganhada pela nova Tamanho e Tantos. “Tivemos de começar tudo do zero com a Inditex, da qual continuamos completamente dependentes”, lembrou Jesus, que divide a meias o capital da empresa com o seu “sócio e amigo” José Teixeira.
.
Entretanto, a líder mundial de venda de roupa a retalho começa a desviar massivamente encomendas para fornecedores mais baratos. “A Inditex, que começou a abandonar Portugal, podia sair a qualquer momento, pelo que começamos a fazer o desmame e a arranjar novas soluções”, recordou o co-CEO da empresa.”

Um bom exemplo. Uma equipa de gestão que não se iludiu com o presente e preparou o futuro. Algo que me fez recordar:

“For the unprepared organisation, periods of significant transition are typically marked by confusion (‘What’s happening?’), uncertainty (‘What should we do?’) and reprisals (‘Who’s to blame?’). Caught by surprise, managers tend to react with hasty, inadequate responses that merely demonstrate their misreading of the situation, or else they are struck by strategic inertia, frozen by their inability to fully comprehend what is happening.”

Só revelam que não são fragilistas, que não acreditam que os astros se vão alinhar para que tudo corra bem. Gente que avalia os riscos do contexto

1. Factor externo negativo - Desinvestimento da Inditex em Portugal
2. Factor interno negativo - Dependência importante da Inditex
3. Risco - Perca de um volume importante de vendas e a sobrevivência da empresa

e aje em conformidade.

Trecho retirado de “Rethinking Strategy” de Steve Tighe.

Uma transformação

"Two decades ago, we sought knowledge by laboriously searching in bulky paper-based encyclopedias or dusty journals in libraries; today we have knowledge on-line at our fingertips at the tap of an app.
.
Two decades ago, a car was a metal machine with a couple of electric controls: today, a car is a multifunctional entertainment center on wheels, with which we can even hold conversations.
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Two decades ago, a telephone was a mechanical contraption attached by wire to a physical system: now, a telephone is a handheld multifunction device that connects us to the world and serves an infinite array of complex purposes.
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Two decades ago, an office was a physical building that contained people and machines: now, an office is a software network with people scattered around the planet interacting with it."

E em que medida é que as ofertas da sua empresa se transformaram? Em que medida deixaram de vender substantivos e passaram a vender resultados na vida dos clientes?


Trecho retirado de "How Software Developers Sparked Management Transformation"

Coragem!

"When Jobs was brought back to Apple in 1997, the company was struggling. It only turned a corner when he axed 70% of the "pretty good" projects to focus on the 30% that were incredible.​
.
What he did next took real guts.
.
Greatness Lies in the 30%
.
Regarding the "pretty good" 70%, Jobs continued to say in the interview that "we've pared a lot of that back, so we could focus the same amount of original resource even more on what was remaining -- and add a few new things in."
.
In case you're confused, he axed 70% of Apple's projects because he knew that "pretty good" is the enemy of great. With 100% of the former budget for innovation going toward the 30% of "incredibly good" projects, those initiatives could reach their full potential instead of being dragged down by the weight of the "pretty good" ones."

É preciso coragem!!! Não querer estar em todo o lado. Dá um sentido concreto à lição de que o contrário de uma estratégia não é uma estratégia estúpida, é simplesmente uma outra alternativa.

E a sua empresa, quer ir a todas?

Trecho retirado de "Steve Job Used This Simple Rule of Success to Reinvent Apple When the Company Was on the Ropes"

O ideal

"Uma das grandes vantagens do investimento estrangeiro é o know-how que traz. Gosto do investimento estrangeiro para aprendermos com eles, não para eles aprenderem connosco. O capital estrangeiro torna a economia portuguesa mais produtiva e exportadora. É o caso dos investimentos da Autoeuropa, da Bosch, aqui em Braga, ou da Ikea, entre outros. Mas duvido que tenhamos muito a aprender com o capital angolano, a não ser, claro, sobre como capturar governos."

O ideal era termos um enquadramento legal e fiscal que não obrigasse o investimento estrangeiro a ter de negociar condições especiais com o governo de turno.

Trecho retirado de "Ao menos os ratos abandonam o navio, não o afundam" no Público de ontem.

"Scenarios are about freedom"

Há sectores económicos em que empresas bem sucedidas são capazes de, em certas alturas do ciclo económico anual, precisarem de crédito bancário para financiarem a sua actividade. Agora imaginem que começam a surgir mais e mais notícias de encerramentos e falências de empresas desses sectores económicos. Mesmo as empresas bem sucedidas desses sectores, vão sentir cada vez mais dificuldade em obter crédito bancário.

O que acabei de escrever é outro exemplo da aplicação do pensamento baseado no risco.

(1) Factor externo negativo - notícias cada vez mais frequentes de encerramentos e falências no nosso sector.
(2) Factor interno negativo - o nosso nível de actividade actual requer um volume de crédito relevante para financiar a actividade durante parte do ciclo anual.
(3) Risco - dificuldade crescente em obter crédito bancário.

“Having explored the factors influencing their operating environment, how these factors might evolve and their possible future impacts, managers emerge from the scenario process with a broader and deeper understanding of the environment in which they have to function and compete. In turn, this learning provides a liberating dose of clarity:

• ‘This is what we think could happen.(3)’

• ‘This is why we think it could happen.(1x2)’

• ‘This is how we think it could happen.’

• ‘And this is what we intend to do about it.’

In this sense, the organisational learning that occurs is empowering. Scenarios are about freedom. They allow you to act with confidence on the original insights you generate. In turn, this confidence provides another nail in the coffin of the stereotype of scenarios as a conservative tool for risk management.”

Trechos retirados de “Rethinking Strategy” de Steve Tighe.

Quantos projectos?

Ontem de manhã li o artigo "Learning for a Living" e logo no início sublinhei:

“Get ready for an age in which we are all in tech,” he had told them, “whether you work in the tech industry or not.”

E sorri. Sorri, porque foi o que pensei ao iniciar a leitura de “Zone to Win - Organizing to Compete in an Age of Disruption” de Geoffrey A. Moore, um velho conhecido deste blogue (o primeiro livro que comprei dele foi em 2007). Por exemplo, ontem durante a caminhada matinal ao olhar para a figura:

Pensei nas empresas de calçado que depois de uma feira desanimadora em Garda começam a pensar seriamente em mudar de vida.

• Performance zone - “This is the engine room for operating established franchises on proven business models. The focus is on material revenue performance derived from established businesses that are sustaining to the status quo. It is home to the organizations that make the offers you sell and sell the offers you make. ... The importance of maintaining the viability of the performance zone can hardly be overstated. It is the source of more than 90 percent of the enterprise’s revenues and well north of 100 percent of its profits.” [Moi ici: Fundamental continuar a vender, produzir, entregar, facturar, receber e cumprir os compromissos]
• Productivity zone - “The focus is on applying sustaining innovation to productivity-enabling initiatives targeted primarily at the performance zone with the bulk of the ROI expected to fall into Horizon 1. These initiatives are delivered via programs and systems for ensuring regulatory compliance, efficient operations, and effective competitive performance. The normal challenge for the productivity zone is to manage the tensions among its three core deliverables—compliance, efficiency, and effectiveness—without subordinating any one of them to the other two.” [Moi ici: A facturação está a baixar, o próximo ciclo de crescimento ainda não está assegurado, é preciso aumentar a produtividade. Pode passar por reduzir gama de produtos, pode passar por encolher, pode passar por deixar de recorrer a subcontratação, ou passar a recorrer a subcontratação]
• Incubation zone - “the incubation zone plays enabling host to fast-growing offers in emerging categories and markets that are not yet producing a material amount of revenue. Its charter is a simple one: Position the enterprise to catch the next wave.” [Moi ici: Qualquer empresa deve ter um "recreio" onde se fazem experiências. Por exemplo, ontem mandaram-me um pdf com este gráfico] 
  

• Transformation zone - “the place in an established enterprise where a disruptive business model goes to be scaled to material size. It is primarily a tool for offense, the goal being to scale rapidly to a stable, material, net new line of business, one that constitutes 10 percent or more of the enterprise’s current revenues, on a growth trajectory that promises both increased size and superior profitability.” [Moi ici: Aqui, o risco principal é ter o novo modelo de negócio gerido por quem tem o mindset formatado no nível anterior do jogo. Por exemplo, ter medo de afectar a eficiência, quando o novo modelo pede rapidez acioma de tudo]

Quantos projectos é que a sua empresa tem na Incubation zone? Tem algum projecto na Transformation zone? O que está a fazer para limpar na Productivity zone?

O retorno dos independentes

“If we see our products as books and what we compete on price, we lose. If we see our product as an experience, of which books are one piece, then we can compete.”

"Raffaelli distills the resurgence of the indies down to three main points: Community, Curation, and Convening.
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Community: As longtime community stalwarts, bookstores have been at the vanguard of the “buy local” movement, pioneering events such as Small-Business Saturday, and making their customers feel virtuous about spending money in their own neighborhoods. “It’s almost like a social movement,” says Raffaelli, who says indie bookstores are “anchors of authenticity in an ever-increasing digital and disconnected world.” The notion goes beyond a bond with customers to include other important community actors, such as schools, chambers of commerce, and civic organizations, reinforcing the social fabric and engendering a strong sense of customer and community loyalty.
.
Curation: Despite the increasing sophistication of online algorithms, online platforms have been unable to replicate the knowledge and passion of indie bookstore employees, says Raffaelli. “Many booksellers are voracious readers and serve as trusted guides who can point their customers to new genres or up-and-coming authors they might not have encountered,” he says. “Customers leave the store excited and then want to come back.” By contrast, he says, Amazon’s reputation as “the everything store” can sometimes work against it, overwhelming consumers with too many options and an impersonal experience.
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Convening: Indie bookstores are increasingly serving as points for convening, expanding beyond author events to host book groups, children’s story hours, birthday parties, music events, knitting circles, culinary demonstrations, and other events. Several stores Raffaelli visited reported staging over 500 events a year. “Bookstores have always been a place where people could convene and have a conversation about the issues of the day,” he says, adding that bookstore owners are increasingly seeing their competition not as Barnes & Noble, but as Netflix and other entertainment apps that tie people to their couches. “Retailers who succeed are able to create a unique experience that consumers see as time well-spent. [Moi ici: Nunca esqueço de Pine e a sua relaação entre experiência e "time weel spent"] Not only do such events get people into the store—the number one goal of every retailer—but events open the door for readers to connect with other bibliophiles, creating more demand for their products.
Ironically, in their efforts to build community, bookstores have increasingly embraced the online world as a tool to extend their reach. “Bookstores have become sophisticated at building a social media presence,” Raffaelli says. “Many owners have hired online specialists to extend the conversation outside the four walls of the bookstore itself.”

Interessante esta ferramenta de avaliação das lojas:

 Fontes:

• Lessons for Retailers from the Rebirth of Indie Bookstores
• Reinventing Retail: The Novel Resurgence of Independent Bookstores

"when speed is low, development requires big investments"

O meu parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras enviou-me o link para este artigo "Six ingredients of agile organizational design" com o comentário:

"Só agora associei o Scrum como uma resposta para planeamento do Mongo!"

Caro amigo... até apetece exclamar: Duh!!!

Li o artigo duas vezes e das duas vezes sublinhei este trecho:

"Nowadays, a company’s chances of survival are low if it takes too long to create (new) products. Our company becomes slow if we need a number of teams, each producing a part of the product, to be able to create possible customer value. The specialised team approach creates many dependencies between teams when we try to create customer value. We only know if our product (or change) is successful after releasing it in the hands of the customer because that is when we get real feedback and our assumptions are validated. The slower our company is, the longer it takes before we get customer feedback, i.e. return on investment (if any). That’s why when speed is low, development requires big investments." 

E sorri ao relacionar com a série "Acerca da rapidez" e com as novas regras de xadrez. Mongo tem tudo a ver com rapidez, flexibilidade e personalização.

E acerca de:

"Some teams do not even know what value they are creating from a customer point of view: the workers have never seen a real customer or they don’t have one because they deliver so-called “products” to another department."

Fez-me recordar um texto citado aqui no blogue recentemente:

"Leaders who connect employees with end users motivate higher performance, measured in terms of revenue as well as supervisors’ ratings.
...
Customers, clients, patients, and others who benefit from a company’s products and services motivate employees by serving as tangible proof of the impact of their work, expressing appreciation for their contributions, and eliciting empathy, which helps employees develop a deeper understanding of customers’ needs."

“The core problem is uncertainty”

"It was expected, perhaps, but still startling. In its 22nd Annual Global CEO Survey, PwC asked 1,378 top business leaders from around the world which territories (excluding their own) they considered the most important for their company’s growth prospects in the next 12 months. The world’s chief executives were noticeably noncommittal. As many as 15 percent of them answered “don’t know” in 2019, up from 8 percent the previous year.CEOs in the United States were even more dubious: 14 percent of them didn’t consider any other markets suitable for growth, up from only 2 percent in the 2018 survey.
...
This shift in attitude is already reflected in business investment. Of the 31 percent of CEOs who said they were “extremely concerned” about trade wars, 45 percent said they were shifting their supply chain strategy, and 25 percent said they were shifting their growth strategies to other territories.
...
Fundamental aspects of the global economy have been shifting for more than a decade. Elements undergoing change include costs for manufacturing (including labor costs, which are rising), new technological platforms (such as those associated with Industry 4.0), stronger suppliers and other businesses in emerging markets (which are maturing), middle-class consumer populations around the world (which are growing rapidly in emerging markets and shrinking in other places), and political and regulatory uncertainties.
...
A new model of market expansion strategy — we call it “internationalization” — is replacing the globalism of the early 2000s. This model acknowledges that the global business ecosystem now includes many small and medium-sized enterprises and ambitious family businesses, often based in emerging markets, linked together by collaborative supply chains and platforms. At the same time, larger companies with established global supply chains have realized that they need to bring their operations closer to the demand they are targeting. The trade tensions of 2019 have heightened awareness of these dynamics, and accelerated the business response to them.
...
To be sure, global trade will still thrive, but there will be more regional concentration. Rather than shipping goods around the world from cheaplabor hubs, companies manufacture goods for Asian customers in Asia, for European customers in Central Europe, and for North American customers in Latin America. They develop regional footprints, sourcing from more locations."

Interessante:

"The World Trade Organization (WTO) published a report in June 2019 showing that G20 nations had implemented 20 new restrictive trade measures between October 2018 and May 2019, including higher tariffs, import bans, and new customs procedures for exports.
...
All this has had a chilling effect on international commerce. Imports by G20 economies were 1.2 percent lower in the first quarter of 2019 than they were a year earlier, whereas exports were only marginally (0.4 percent) higher, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development figures show. “The core problem is uncertainty,” said Piyush Gupta, chief executive of Singapore’s largest domestic bank, DBS, in an interview with strategy+business. “There’s a general environment of skittishness.”"

Trechos retirados de "Growth strategies for an uncertain world"

Para reflexão

Um texto para reflexão:

“Burroughs • Sperry Univac • Honeywell • Control Data • MSA • McCormack & Dodge • Cullinet • Cincom • ADR • CA • DEC • Data General • Wang • Prime • Tandem • Daisy • Calma • Valid • Apollo • Silicon Graphics • Sun • Atari • Osborne • Commodore • Casio • Palm • Sega • WordPerfect • Lotus • Ashton Tate • Borland • Informix • Ingres • Sybase • BEA • Seibel • PowerSoft • Nortel • Lucent • 3Com • Banyan • Novell • Pacific Bell • Qwest • America West • Nynex • Bell South • Netscape • MySpace • Inktomi • Ask Jeeves • AOL • Blackberry • Motorola • Nokia • Sony
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I have spent the entirety of my business career working in the technology sector, and I can assure you, if you are looking for next waves to catch, there is no better place to hang out. Nevertheless, there are fifty-six companies on this list of companies that failed to do so. Look at the names. These were not the losers; these were the winners! These were not our worst management teams; these were our best! And yet every single one of them missed every single one of their efforts to catch the next big wave—hundreds and hundreds of misses with nary a single hit. Why is this so hard?It turns out, to disrupt someone else’s business, you have to add a net new line of business to your own portfolio. This is, in effect, a form of elective surgery, one that can be scheduled at will. Because it is voluntary, because we get to choose the time and place of engagement, we are led to believe we have things under control. Unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth. The real truth is most companies take run after run at this hurdle, but each time, at the critical juncture, that moment when you have to either go big or go home, they shy away. Normally it is not until their own legacy business comes under attack that they can summon the will to change, but by then it is usually too late.”

Trechos retirados de “Zone to Win: Organizing to Compete in an Age of Disruption” de Geoffrey A. Moore.

"o tempo das marcas tradicionais terminou"

Ao longo dos anos tenho escrito aqui no blogue sobre Mongo e sobre a suckiness dos gigantes. Apesar disso foi com alguma surpresa que li "Época dos construtores tradicionais acabou, diz CEO da VW":

"Foi num discurso duro e com um conjunto de mensagens alarmantes que o CEO do Grupo Volkswagen se dirigiu aos seus colegas seniores da administração, após a reunião global do conglomerado que dirige. Referindo-se ao futuro de um grupo que nos últimos anos liderou o mercado mundial em vendas, Herbert Diess avisou, segundo a Reuters, que o tempo das marcas tradicionais terminou e que a empresa que dirige tem de acelerar a sua remodelação para evitar transformar-se na nova Nokia,
...
Para Diess, os objectivos a curto prazo passam por cortar nos custos e incrementar as receitas
...
Para o CEO, a receita para atingir os fins passa reduzir a complexidade, incrementar a produtividade, especialmente na Alemanha, concluindo que, acima de tudo, o grupo tem de se concentrar mais no lucro e menos nos volumes de vendas. [Moi ici: Como não recordar o velho slogan deste blogue "Volume is Vanity, Profit is Sanity", como não recordar a "anorexia empresarial"]"

O que vai minorando a queda das empresas grandes é a protecção de Bruxelas e dos governos dos estados com regulação e legislação. Estamos algures naqueles dias incipientes numa evolução exponencial de nenúfares, antes do dia 47. Que milhares de Local Motors floresçam.

Acerca da rapidez (parte III)

Parte II e parte I.

Quem anda nisto há alguns anos sabe que a "the next big thing" não virá como um passe de mágico, como uma revelação profética de um qualquer ministro, ou académico, ou paineleiro (a minha clássica tríade). Esses ainda estão a aprender como é que ganhámos na jogada anterior bilhetes para jogar no novo nível sem ser no preço puro e duro.

As soluções para adquirir bilhete e jogar o jogo de novo a um novo nível serão descobertas por tentativa e erro por quem anda no terreno, [Moi ici: Como não lembrar o mapa de Weick] por quem encolheu e enquanto tem minutos de oxigénio, vai fazendo experiências.

"The moral of the story is that when you are lost, any old map will do. The story demonstrates very clearly that it is what people do when they are uncertain that is important, rather than what they plan. By analogy, strategic plans function a lot like maps in which the crucial factor is not the map (or strategy) but the fact that you have something which will get you started on a path to the future. Once people begin to act (enactment), they generate tangible outcomes (cues) in some context (social) and that helps them discover (retrospect) what is occurring (ongoing), what needs to be explained (plausibility) and what should be done next (identity enhancement)."

Um bom ponto de partida julgo que passará por "Nichos, co-criação e intimidade à escala". Recordo
Mudar e anichar e Anichar

Claro que haverá gente disposta a enveredar pela race-to-the-bottom e continuar a apostar nos custos mais baixos. Por isso, fiz questão deste postal ser o primeiro do ano.

• For frequent future use - a reminder that predictability is for suckers

Por fim, fecho esta série com uns trechos de "there is value in discovery":

"I do think there’s value in being open to change and trying to be comfortable with the uncertainty that transformation brings.[Moi ici: Recordar Gonzales e os que quando se perdem acabam por achar-se]
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 I think most of the time, even a change that’s largely negative has some positive elements to it, but I don’t see anything necessary about change being positive. It’s a gamble."

Os que são atirados para a aventura... espero que estejam minimamente preparados e com uma mente como a da Victorinox.