What a difference a year makes!

A evolução das exportações este ano - números do INE. What a difference a year makes!

Aquele "Parcial I" teve uma evolução impressionante, e eu sou um fã do "Parcial I" (Julho e Setembro de 2017)

Imaginem o quão os automóveis distorcem os números agregados.

Fuçar!

"“There are so many things in this world that we cannot know until we try something. Very often after we try we find that the results are completely the opposite of what we expected, and this is because having misconceptions is part of what it means to be human.”"

Trecho retirado de “Taiichi Ohno's Workplace Management” de Taiichi Ohno.

E subir na escala de valor?

A propósito do meu primeiro contacto com as mochilas Monte Campo ler "Alargar os horizontes" (Julho de 2011), seguido logo por "Um sonho". Um sonho que não passou disso mesmo, "Mongo, experiências, emoções, significados e tribos" (Agosto de 2016).

Ontem tive oportunidade de ler "O pai, o avô no centro e o neto. Os três eduardos na fábrica da Monte Campo". Foi impressionante. Continua a falta de pensamento estratégico.

Encolheram e parece que ficaram à espera que a China/Ásia ficasse cara. E subir na escala de valor? E começar a fazer um trajecto para ir ao encontro das marcas da gama média-alta?

Suckiness, what else

Recordar "Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte XIV)

"It is crystal clear, however, that many more malls and stores will close without aggressive actions to reimagine and reinvent themselves. Struggling brands desperately need to go from boring to remarkable. Struggling brands need to adopt a culture of experimentation and be willing to be retail radicals. Struggling brands need to stop the nonsense about channels and realize it’s all just commerce, and that the customer is the ultimate channel. Struggling brands need to learn to treat different customers differently. And struggling brands need to hurry. Time is not on their side."

Trecho retirado de "These Brands Apparently Did Not Get The 'Retail Apocalypse' Memo"

Mudança, mudança, mudança

Mongo na agricultura... até na agricultura os gigantes estão condenados pela sua suckiness.

"Yet Minnesota-based Cargill’s business is falling victim to a scourge that’s already upended media, retailing, and other venerable industries: digital disruption. Cargill long made fat profits by having far more information about global commodity prices than the local farmers it negotiated with or the food companies it sold to. But today, even a small Iowa farmer with a smartphone or a tablet can get real-time data about weather conditions and prices facing his Brazilian counterparts.
...
His view that farmers increasingly won’t need to rely on agribusiness giants for pricing intelligence is gaining ground within the industry. “We probably [will] witness the disappearance of the dinosaurs of the international agri trade,”
...
The revolution goes beyond digitization. Agriculture is moving from a pure commodities business, where each bushel of wheat or corn is considered functionally identical, to an ingredients business, where consumers demand differentiation, such as organic produce and foodstuffs grown without genetically modified organisms. That transition makes the life of a trading-based company more difficult, says Jonathan Kingsman, author of Commodity Conversations, because it restricts its ability to find the lowest-priced goods on the market. When traders can no longer “substitute one origin for another, that reduces their ability to make money from the supply chain,”(fonte 1)

O problema da política agrícola comum europeia, afinal o de qualquer subsidiação porque minimiza o stress, elimina um sinal de que é preciso mudar.

"O algodão está a voltar às planícies do Kansas e do Oklahoma, ao mesmo tempo que os agricultores desistem do trigo, atraídos pelo preço relativamente alto daquela matéria-prima assim como pela sua capacidade para suportar uma seca.
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Um aumento de 20% em relação ao ano passado marca uma alteração profunda numa colheita que já dominou o delta do Mississippi até ao Texas e que registou o seu ponto mais baixo há três anos, quando os preços reduzidos levaram a quem se dedica à plantação do “ouro branco” a diminuir o número de hectares para mínimos em 30 anos. Esta mudança pode ser de longo prazo, tendo em conta que os agricultores estão a deixar o trigo, segmento dominado pelo crescimento enorme da Rússia, o maior exportador deste cereal." (fonte 2)

Recordar 2012, "Commodity Prices Are Headed Lower"


(1) - America’s Largest Private Company Reboots a 153-Year-Old Strategy
(2) - Algodão regressa às planícies americanas

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte XIV)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X, parte XI, parte XII e parte XIII.

Mais um subsidio para a justificação de porque é que em Mongo os gigantes estão irremediavelmente condenados à suckiness, agora através das palavras de Seth Godin em "“It’s not for everyone”":

"The stuff that’s for everyone, that’s easy to click, sniff, share, produce and learn–that stuff ends up having no character. It’s not memorable. Tater tots are for everyone.
.
But would you miss them if they were gone?
.
The goal isn’t to serve everyone. The goal is to serve the right people."

E o que é que Mongo tem em grande quantidade? Tribos apaixonadas que não pactuam com o meio-termo, que são assimétricas.

Recordar:

"Customers often think we are different not because we are different, but because we recognize what makes them different" 

Influenciadores para nichos ou de nichos

Sabem como há muitos anos trabalho o conceito de ecossistema, de influenciador e de como não acredito no the-winner-take-all mesmo nas redes sociais (Mongo é diversidade, proximidade, autenticidade e paixão).

Assim, apreciei ler "A Guide to Working With Niche Influencers":

"Instead, it’s the fact that, despite only clocking roughly 155,000 Instagram followers, her engagement is almost twice that of the average fashion “influencer”, according to data analytics firm Tribe Dynamics. In 2017 so far, she has garnered 1.6 million likes on 258 fashion-related posts.
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Blutstein’s success represents the rise of a different kind of influencer, one who may not ever reach the followership of the major players — many of whom are now full-fledged celebrities — but who brings an aura of authenticity to the brand projects she takes on. Call them micro-influencers, niche-influencers, alterna-influencers, what-have-you, these Instagram, Youtube and Snapchat stars typically have well under 200,000 followers, and sometimes no more than 10,000.
...
In an analysis of the accounts of 15 emerging-name fashion influencers — all with fewer than 300,000 followers, and most with fewer than 200,000 — Tribe Dynamics found that engagement rates were, on average, four times that of the average influencer in its database. When comparing upper-tier influencers (over 300,000 followers) with lower tier influencers (under 300,000 followers), the lower tier influencers fashion influencers have 86 percent higher engagement rates on Instagram.
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In an ironic turn of events, it seems that alterna-influencers are usurping advertising and marketing dollars from well-known superstar bloggers in the way those bloggers once usurped print magazines.
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There are influencers whose job is to advertise on Instagram. There are others who use social media to communicate. It’s two very distinct things."

Planeamento - Um relato fantástico!!!

Ontem estive numa empresa a animar um primeiro brainstorming sobre o que fazer para implementar um eixo estratégico.

A empresa criou um plano estratégico para 2018-2022. O plano lista os eixos estratégicos que permitirão atingir os resultados pretendidos no final de 2022. Entretanto, como eles dizem:

"De 20 trimestres já passaram dois e nós ainda não implementamos nada!"

Identificou-se o principal obstáculo à implementação do tal eixo estratégico e começaram-se a gerar ideias sobre como o ultrapassar. No final da sessão, decidiu-se que ideias mereciam ser trabalhadas, por quem e até quando. Trabalho de casa até ao próximo dia 14!

À noite apanho este artigo "How Chris Froome won Giro d'Italia thanks to 'spectacular' stage 19 victory". Eu que sou um fã de Froome e do Tour, eu que assisti em directo via computador ao feito de Froome:

Merci @lequipe pour me me laisser voire/ecouter cette course de Froome

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) May 25, 2018

Froome épico e histórico

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) May 25, 2018

Primeiro tópico:

"It was one of those great scenarios where you could say, let's throw the kitchen sink at it and see what happens. There was a real sense of, let's nail this. And then, let's get forensic on the planning." 

"Let's get forensic on the planning" - excelente!!!

Segundo tópico:

Já em mais do que um texto li sobre a técnica britânica no ciclismo, que fez do Reino Unido um papa-medalhas olímpicas. Definem o objectivo global e, depois, procuram todas as partes que contribuem para esse objectivo, para actuar sobre elas.

"DB: "We recognised that to pull it off, you would have to fuel it. The body can only absorb 90 grams of carbs an hour. If you're using more than that, you're going to run out pretty fast.
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"So it was mission critical that Chris had to get 90g of carbs every hour. But when you looked at where that would be in the race, you realised it wasn't always going to be practical to eat three rice cakes in an hour, or three gels. If you are riding hard up a climb or going flat out on a descent, it's not possible.
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"Tim divided the stage into segments - the first 90 minutes, then the transition into the first climb, the climb itself. Then he translated all that into the wattage Chris would be producing in each section, and the carbs Chris would need to do that. And then we put that into a nutritional strategy.
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"Each water bottle weighs 500g. We obsess over losing 30g from a bike. On this hour-long climb of the Finestre, which could be the decisive moment of the entire race, was it worth carrying an extra 500g up this possibly pivotal climb? But if you didn't, if he didn't hydrate, there was a very real risk he could blow.
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"OK, Let's get a feed at 10-minute intervals on that climb, so Chris can carry minimal food and water.
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"We told Rod the plan. Any chance? His face dropped.
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"He came back. 'We can do it, but we're going to need everybody in the team - press officers, mechanics, security guy, me. That's the only way it can work.' Then we thought, some of these guys have never given a bottle to a moving rider before. So we would have to move around.
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"Rod did the logistics of that. James worked out what Chris should eat, when and where. Tim did the calculations about energy expenditure and where. And then we got the riders together and said, this is what we're going to try to do."

Um relato fantástico!!!

Como é que a sua empresa planeia os seus objectivos, eixos estratégicos e mergulha no detalhe do plano de acção?

Do contra (parte II)

A propósito de "Portugal entre os países que mais vão perder população" recordo que este é um tema abordado aqui quase desde o início do blogue:

• Tudo o resto é espuma... (Outubro de 2006)
• Daqui a 20 anos ... (Fevereiro de 2013)
• Curiosidade do dia (Março de 2014)

No entanto, gostaria de chamar a atenção que divirjo do mainstream na avaliação desta tendência: Do contra (Julho de 2017)

"the heart of ecosystem strategy is the search for alignment"

Um excelente texto a merecer mais do que uma leitura, "Ecosystem as Structure: An Actionable Construct for Strategy":

"An alternative perspective, which I call ecosystems-as-structure, offers a complementary approach to considering interdependent value creation. ... starts with a value proposition and seeks to identify the set of actors that need to interact in order for the proposition to come about.
...
The ecosystem is defined by the alignment structure of the multilateral set of partners that need to interact in order for a focal value proposition to materialize.
...
places the value proposition as the foundation of the ecosystem—it is the proposed value proposition that creates the (endogenous) boundary of the relevant ecosystem.
...
When a value proposition depends on a shift in ecosystem structure, the additional strategic question that is raised concerns alignment: How will the innovator create the impetus for other actors, who may not be directly linked to the innovator, to change? Crafting an ecosystem strategy hinges on a clear understanding of what the relevant pieces are and where the boundaries of dependence and independence lie.
...
If the heart of traditional strategy is the search for competitive advantage, the heart of ecosystem strategy is the search for alignment. The value, rarity, and inimitability of resources finds its analog in multilateral partnerships, and sustainability of advantage has as much to do with maintaining relationships as it does with keeping rivals at bay. While the status, size, and capabilities of firms will clearly impact their ability to act and shape interdependence, status, size, and capability can only take an organization so far. Asymmetric interdependence—in which an innovator’s success depends more heavily on a partner breaking away from business as usual than does the partner’s continued success in its usual business depends on the innovators’ choices—can upend expectations of size and authority."

O preço não devia ser um dado

"Perspective defines what you see and what you don’t see. People observe things as they appear to them in their day-to-day lives. For example, media convey those events they consider the most important and thereby shape the perspective of the audience. Their readers and viewers process news items as they are served up to them.
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In a similar way, items on the agenda of a company’s board shape the perspective of middle managers and employees. Price is rarely an item on that agenda, which is down to the fact that no one on the board has direct and undivided responsibility for pricing.
...
Broken up into several pieces, the pricing policy comes under the competency of the commercial, managing, financial, and operational directors. Each director only sees a piece of the pricing puzzle, and the consequences of suboptimal prices often go unnoticed. Pricing is considered a given, and not a critical decision; the price is exogenous instead of endogenous.
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The result is an underdeveloped perspective on pricing. Scant heed paid to pricing matters at board level leads to pricing decisions being sometimes made almost casually, with the decision-making process largely hidden from view, and only the end product, i.e., prices, reaching the desks of managers and employees.
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Organization of the pricing function is barely explicit and almost always suboptimal."

Trechos retirados de "Pricing: The Third Business Skill" de Ernst-Jan Bouter.

Mongo na saúde

“Over the past four or five decades carbohydrate-heavy diets—pushed by mass-market production and mass marketing of cereals and drinks laced with high-fructose corn syrup—created an epidemic of obesity and, ultimately, diabetes. The medical profession lumped most people with diabetes into one of two categories of the disease—type 1 is genetic and type 2 is diet related—and prescribed a standard treatment. It was a classic mass-market medicine approach. So the healthcare industry scaled up to meet demand. It built diabetes centers and more hospitals and ran every patient, assembly-line style, through the same tests the few times a year they’d be able to visit an endocrinologist, whose schedule was packed. Yet for patients, sugar levels in between appointments can change, rising and falling to dangerous levels, and the disease can progress, adding more costs and more visits to bigger hospitals. People suffering from diabetes end up costing the healthcare system $300 billion a year in the United States alone. (It’s only going to get worse globally: within a decade China will likely have more people with diabetes than the entire US population.) “The scaled approach can’t keep up with the growing number of people with the condition, and it fails to give people with diabetes what they really want: a healthy life.
.
In reality every person who has diabetes suffers from it differently, and the best way to treat it is different for everybody.
...
“Personalized AI-driven care can reduce the amount Americans spend caring for diabetes by as much as $100 billion just by keeping more people with diabetes well more of the time. Unscaled solutions can change the game and reduce healthcare costs by keeping people well. The nation can save money while at the same time making citizens healthier, happier, and more productive.”

Por cá, fala-se muito de Indústria 4.0, mas continuam a construir hospitais-monumento ou hospitais-cidade. Recordar os hospitais-cidade, as escolas-cidade e as máquinas-monumento.

Trecho retirado de "Unscaled: How A.I. and a New Generation of Upstarts are Creating the Economy of the Future"

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte XIII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X, parte XI e parte XII.

"The problem with GE, it appears, is that it has become a square-peg business in a round-hole world. It’s not that it’s gotten lazy, but that it invested heavily in getting better and better at things people care less and less about. That’s a problem we rarely talk about. We like to believe that success breeds more success, but the truth is that success often breeds failure.
...
From a certain point of view, GE did everything right. It continually improved its operations, brought in outside experts to shake things up and transformed its product development process. It also made strategically sensible acquisitions in an industry it knew well. But the whole time it was getting better and better at things customers wanted less and less. That’s how you get disrupted.
...
It’s a fairly simple equation. If you don’t explore, you won’t discover. If you don’t discover you won’t invent. And if you don’t invent, you will be disrupted."

Pensar na GE é pensar na Procter & Gamble e numa série de gigantes. De que serve a escala quando as pessoas não querem ser tratadas como plankton?

Trechos retirados de "How GE Got Disrupted"

Não basta inovar (parte II)

Parte I.

Recordar também "O Diógenes dentro de mim" (Maio de 2014). Não é uma questão que só aconteça às PME. Sempre que falha o alinhamento

temos desperdício:

"A new product line had failed, and the company believed the problem was either poor product delivery times or lack of effort by the sales force. After throwing millions at both problems, they finally realized what the real issue was: misaligned goals between marketing and sales. The product line was priced to grow market share, yet the sales force compensation was structured to incentivize salespeople based on profit margin maximization. As a result, the frustrated sales force focused efforts on selling other products in which the goals were more aligned.
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This company isn’t alone. Marketing and sales departments often set their strategies, and goals, separately from each other."

Trecho retirado de "When Sales and Marketing Aren’t Aligned, Both Suffer"

Douro

Teóricos vs práticos

Pois ...

Imaginem ...

Ao fim de vários meses lá consegui que empresa de informática que representa marca de ERP finalmente acedesse a dar formação à empresa A, sua cliente, paga com dinheiro de um subsídio.

Dias depois da primeira sessão visitei a empresa A e estavam entusiasmados com o que tinham aprendido. Tinham o ERP há anos e só aproveitavam uma pequena parcela. Logo por causa da primeira sessão resolveram avançar para a compra de mais um módulo do referido ERP.

Aposto que a empresa de informática não vai fazer a relação entre os dois acontecimentos:

• cliente ganha know-how sobre o ERP, cliente valoriza o ERP, cliente percebe o valor que pode experimentar com um novo módulo do ERP, cliente encomenda novo módulo do ERP;
• empresa de informática ganha encomenda, empresa de informática ganha publicidade positiva com os comentários da empresa A.

Imaginem que a empresa de informática era capaz de somar 2 mais 2 e começava a oferecer aos seus clientes mais sessões deste tipo ...

Para reflexão

"Experiences, which offers users activities hosted by locals — like a photography workshop or a cooking class — is now doing a million and a half bookings on an annualized basis. It’s growing much faster than Homes did, according to Chesky, who shared the data point that three in four millennials said they’d rather buy an Experience than a physical good."

Imaginem quando os hospedeiros por cá começarem a oferecer mais do que o espaço e se concentrarem no pacote completo.

Trecho retirado de "The experience economy will be a ‘massive business,’ according to Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky"

Arte, sempre a arte (parte II)

Parte I.

"The corporate system is transforming into a maze of fragmented tasks and short-term gigs. Although the modern era is often described as a skills economy, most companies have a short-term focus, which means for a worker that when her experience accumulates, it often loses institutional value.
...
The still prevalent system of the industrial world is based on mass-production and economies of scale. The more identical things are, the cheaper each copy can be. Computer-based digital manufacturing does not work this way. It does not use moulds or casts. Without these, there is no need to repeat the same form. Every piece can be unique, a work of art. As Mario Carpo puts it: “Repetition no longer saves money and variations no longer cost more money.” This means that the marginal cost of production is always the same. Big was better in the industrial world, but not any more. A small workshop can compete with the largest factory. Production is not affected by size. What is emerging leads to a flat marginal cost society, an economy without scale, a human-sized economy.
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The biggest challenge for a worker in this new environment is to think like an artist, at the same time making good use of new technology. The artist becomes the symbol of humanness building on the increasing financial value of personalization and variation.[Moi ici: Lá está a confusão! Não é variação é variedade!!! (aqui também)] It is not a zero sum game between faulty men and flawless machines. The machines propose and create potentials rather than take over.
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The societal changes are huge. The modern machine changes the way we understand skills and learning. A skill has always been, and will always be, trained practice. Modern machine learning (AI) algorithms can learn from experience very, very fast because the code develops through data feedback. The danger here is that people may let the machines do the learning without participating in it. People may choose to serve as passive bystanders and consumers of artificial intelligence and its expanding capability. This is why learning needs to change: it is not first going through education and then finding corresponding work, but working first and then finding supporting, corresponding learning. Modern technology is abused if it deprives its users of hands-on training."[Moi ici: Este último trecho é fundamental!!! Porque não começamos a fazer arte quando nos tornamos artistas]

Trechos retirados de "Work of Art"

Profecias que se auto-realizam

Da próxima vez que ouvirem o discurso do coitadinho, do temos que ser apoiados, do "é preciso barrar a entrada de novos actores no jogo económico" (esta ouvi esta semana como uma das reivindicações dos camionistas) pensem nisto:

"The Pygmalion effect is a psychological phenomenon wherein high expectations lead to improved performance in a given area.
...
The flipside is the Golem effect, wherein low expectations lead to decreased performance. Both effects come under the category of self-fulfilling prophecies. Whether the expectation comes from us or others, the effect manifests in the same way."

Recordar:

• Isto é mesmo um desafio digno de Hercules (Dezembro de 2007)
• Qual deve ser o papel de uma associação patronal? (Dezembro de 2012)
• "Não veja televisão. Não veja as notícias! São um veneno!" (Maio de 2013) 
• Condenados pelos limites que nós próprios criamos para nós mesmos  (Maio de 2013) 

Trechos retirados de "The Pygmalion Effect: Proving Them Right"

Sintomas de um mundo em mudança

• Digitalização 3D simplifica a compra e a produção em massa de calçados personalizados
• How a Few Brands Are Making Made-to-Measure Fashion Accessible
• Shoemakers bring bespoke footwear to the high street

Falta-lhe autenticidade

E 11 anos depois de "Agora vou especular" temos "Super Bock faz ‘spin off’ para produzir cervejas em pequena escala".

Hoje, arrisco dizer que sem torrefacção de dinheiro dos contribuintes não terá grande futuro. Falta-lhe autenticidade, falta-lhe a paixão assimétrica das tribos.

"Tivemos necessidade de fazer uma mudança..."

Um texto que parece tirado deste blogue:

"O Grupo Têxtil António Falcão, fundado em 1957, estreou-se na Première Vision Yarns em fevereiro último, onde mostrou as suas mais recentes valências, com artigos de valor acrescentado – como fios com lurex e fios estampados, de poliéster ou poliamida – em grande destaque.
...
Como foi a primeira vez, fomos apalpar terreno e estamos satisfeitos. Fomos com um stand pequeno e decidimos levar apenas algumas novidades. Não levámos os fios básicos, levámos os fios que nos pareceram mais indicados para esta feira.
...
Há alguns anos, mudámos muito a nossa estratégia. Hoje praticamente só trabalhamos fios técnicos, de valor acrescentado.
...
A empresa estava a definhar por insistir em tipos de produtos altamente concorrenciais, que não eram inovadores, não traziam valor acrescentado nenhum – não estou a falar de valor acrescentado económico mas valor acrescentado ao mercado. Portanto, era cada vez mais difícil estar no mercado e competir. Tivemos necessidade de fazer uma mudança, quer com tecnologia que nos pudesse diferenciar, quer também motivar as pessoas para, com estes equipamentos, elaborar coisas novas e fazer um trabalho junto dos nossos próprios clientes no sentido de serem nossos parceiros, desafiando-nos a fazer coisas diferentes – estarmos mais próximos dos clientes de forma a podermos ser mais inovadores e estarmos à frente dos nossos concorrentes.
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a nossa presença nas feiras é para apresentarmos tudo aquilo que vamos desenvolvendo, porque hoje a nossa política em termos industriais realmente mudou, fazemos produtos muito inovadores. Hoje temos pessoas dentro da empresa que estão todos os dias à procura de fazer novos desenvolvimentos e, portanto, a inovar, para levarmos aos nossos clientes, primeiro àqueles que estão mais próximos e que estão cá e depois também àqueles que estão lá fora."

Trechos retirados de "«Hoje praticamente só trabalhamos fios técnicos, de valor acrescentado»"

Unscaled

"Throughout the twentieth century, technology and economics drove a dominant logic: bigger was almost always better. Around the world the goal was to build bigger corporations, bigger hospitals, bigger governments, bigger schools and banks and farms and electric grids and media conglomerates.[Moi ici: Recordar os hospitais-cidade, as escolas-cidade e as máquinas-monumento] It was smart to scale up—to take advantage of classic economies of scale. At the twenty-first century, technology and economies are driving the opposite—an unscaling of business and society. This is far more profound than just startups disrupting established firms. The dynamic is in the process of unraveling all the previous century's scale into hyperfocused markets. Artificial intelligence (Al) and a wave of Al-propelled technologies are allowing innovators to effectively compete against economies of scale with what I call the economies of unscale. This huge shift is remaking massive, deeply rooted industries such as energy, transportation, and healthcare, opening up fantastic possibilities for entrepreneurs, imaginative companies, and resourceful individuals..
If you feel that work, life, and politics are in disarray, this transformation is why. We are experiencing change unlike any since around 1900, when, as I will detail later, a wave of new technologies, including the car, electricity, and telecommunication, transformed work and life. Right now we are living through a similar ground-shaking, tech wave, as AI, genomics, robotics, and 3D printing charge into our lives. Artificial intelligence is the primary driver, changing almost everything, much like electricity did more than one hundred years ago. We are witnessing the birth of the AI century. A an economy driven by AI and digital technology, small, focused, and nimble companies can leverage technology platforms to effectively compete against big, mass-market entities. The small can do this became they can rent scale that companies used to need to build. The small can rent computing in the cloud, rent access to consumers on social media, rent production from contract manufacturers all over the world—and they can use artificial intelligence to automate many tasks that used to require expensive investment in equipment and people.
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Because AI is software that learns, it can learn about individual customers, allowing companies built on rentable tech platforms to easily and profitably make products that address very narrow, passionate markets—even markets of one. The old mass markets are giving way to micromarkets. This is the essence of unscaling: technology is devaluing mass production and mass marketing and empowering customized microproduction and finely targeted marketing. The old strategy of beating competitors by owning scale has in many cases become a liability and burden. Procter & Gamble, with all its magnificent resources, finds itself vulnerable to a newcomer like the Dollar Shave Club, which can rent much of its capabilities, get to market quickly, target a narrow market segment, and change course easily if necessary."

Been there, wrote that, bought the T-shirt!

Trecho retirado de "Unscaled: How A.I. and a New Generation of Upstarts are Creating the Economy of the Future"

Cuidado com o que propõe às PME

Recordar o que escrevo há anos e anos sobre a diferença entre as PME da micro-economia e as empresas grandes:

•  Cuidado com o título
• Um conselho, um desafio

Entretanto, em "Product Innovation Processes in Small Firms: Combining Entrepreneurial Effectuation and Managerial Causation" encontro:

"Prior research poses a puzzle about small firms’ innovation processes. On the one hand, an extensive body of research on new product development (NPD) has identified benefits of a formalized process, with well-planned activities and decision points: a formal product innovation process is considered part of NPD best practice. On the other hand, case study evidence suggests that small firms seldom use such formalized process structures.
...
most product innovation management research has focused solely on large firms, or has failed to distinguish between large and small firms
...
this study shows that the effectual approach suits small firm characteristics, even though it differs from mainstream best practices that are based largely on research in larger firms. This suggests that product innovation research should explicitly differentiate on firm size, rather than prescribing large firm best practices to small firms.
...
Small firms are not miniature versions of large firms, and their characteristics constitute particular strengths and limitations for product innovation. A key strength of small firms is flexibility: they usually lack bureaucracy, are often managed by an owner/director who is able to take key decisions quickly, enjoy efficient and informal internal communication patterns, and develop strong relationships with customers. These characteristics enable rapid responses to technical and market changes, often resulting in differentiated products for niche markets.
.
On the downside, small firms have limited resources for product innovation projects. Lack of financial resources to cover the costs of innovation was identified as a key barrier in several studies. These constraints exacerbate the risks of innovation for small firms, which cannot sustain many failures. Besides limited financial and other material resources, small firms may lack the skills portfolios of their large company counterparts, especially the organizational and marketing capabilities to exploit new products. Further, a small firm’s position in its industry may constrain prospects to create and exploit innovations because of lack of name recognition, brand credibility, and track record; restricted influence on industry standards; limited network relations with other business and governmental organizations; and inability to defend trademarks or other proprietary resources.
.
Furthermore, small firms typically pursue few innovation projects at any one time—maybe just one, or even none at times. Consequently, their experience in product innovation is often limited. With no need to manage a portfolio of innovation projects at the same time and thus no pressure to select among projects to allocate resources, small firms have neither opportunity nor incentive to routinize innovation or formalize NPD stage-gates or selection procedures, as big firms do.
...
For example, early market screening and market research, identified as key activities in structured large firm NPD processes, are consistently lacking or poorly executed in small firms.
.
These empirical findings undermine the assumption that NPD in small firms should mimic larger firm NPD and adopt large firms’ best practices."

Ah! Ainda e sempre a Sildávia.

Junho de 2008.

Democratização da produção (parte II)

Parte I.

"Imagine a manufacturing world of distributed small-batch manufacturing. This is, of course, only one possible outcome, but we suggest it to provide a more concrete picture of how a new technology paradigm could transform manufacturing. At first glance this may appear as a back-to-the future utopia of artisanal producers that is impossibly distant from today’s large-scale, centralized, and globally organized production. But in fact, in a number of economic sectors, we are already seeing a major process of fragmentation at work that involves many of the same mechanisms and technologies that we can conceive as having the potential of transforming manufacturing.
...
What would it take to drive into manufacturing these new economy-wide trends we observe that are reducing scale, shortening the path between the producers of the goods and services and their consumers, and customizing output? In a world of fragmented production, when a company needs a part, it does not build a factory. Rather, it taps into a national network portal and places a computer-aided design (CAD) description of the part it desires, and the numbers it needs, on the portal. To protect its intellectual property, it may perhaps modify the part somewhat. Meanwhile, software systems from small manufacturers around the country prowl the portal looking for parts to bid on. Each manufacturer has a rating, not unlike the system used by eBay, and provides a capacity and response time. Small manufacturers can produce only small numbers of parts, so many small companies might be necessary to meet the customer’s total needs. Software in the portal, perhaps with manual selection from the customer company, selects the ensemble of companies that will manufacture the run. Perhaps representatives from the customer companies also talk to the prospective small manufacturers to ensure that there is a fit.
...
Capacity would be flexible. Small businesses would compete by innovating and anticipating better. Like the Internet, this would be a resilient and adaptive system."

Trechos retirados de "Making in America From innovation to Market" de Suzanne Berger.

Ainda o Evangelho do Valor!

Recordar "Pregarás o Evangelho do Valor" e "Pregarás o Evangelho do Valor - sempre". Depois:

"When QPM decided to raise pricing by 8 percent across the board, they didn't just increase profit by 8 percent, but rather by over 20 percent. How is this possible? Just like Amazon, the lion's share of the price increase dropped to QPM's operating profit margin.
...
If your sales team relies on discounts fifty percent of the time in order to close a sale, and the average discount is 5 percent, then ending this practice is the financial equivalent of a 2.5 percent price increase. If your business operates at a 30 percent operating profit margin, this 2.5 percent price increase means an immediate lift to your bottom line profit of 8.3 percent."

Trechos retirados de "Amazon Just Did Something Brilliant to Increase Its Profits (And Why You Should Copy It)"

Acerca da moral

Em 2010 escrevi em, "Cooperação, moral, religião e a tentação...", sobre o que entendia estar na base da moral nas sociedades humanas. Em 2012 voltei ao tema em "A moral de um pensador".

Foi disto que me lembrei ao ler "Rude Drivers Who Merge at the Last Second Are Doing You a Favor, According to Science". Se um rude driver pode fazê-lo, dois rude drivers podem fazê-lo, três rude drivers podem fazê-lo. Se um rude driver pode fazê-lo, então todos podem fazê-lo.

Aquando da I Guerra do Golfo aprendi que para desbaratar um exército, ou parar um supermercado, basta afectar 30% para a coisa ficar ingovernável.

Há demasiados amadores a jogar bilhar. Como aprendi com Taleb:

"in academia there is no difference between academia and the real world, in the real world, there is"

Por isso, acredito que existe diferença entre ovos de umas galinhas e de outras.

Selecção e subsídios

Com Maliranta em 2007 aprendi aquela frase com que se inicia a coluna das citações:

"It is widely believed that restructuring has boosted productivity by displacing low-skilled workers and creating jobs for the high skilled."
Mas, e como isto é profundo:
"In essence, creative destruction means that low productivity plants are displaced by high productivity plants." Por favor voltar a trás e reler esta última afirmação.
E o grande finale:
"As creative destruction is shown to be an important element of economic growth, there is definitely a case for public policy to support this process, or at least avoid disturbing it without good reason. Competition in product markets is important. Subsidies, on the other hand, may insulate low productivity plants and firms from healthy market selection, and curb incentives for improving their productivity performance. Business failures, plant shutdowns and layoffs are the unavoidable byproducts of economic development."

Com Taleb em 2018 voltei ao tema:

"Systems don’t learn because people learn individually –that’s the myth of modernity. Systems learn at the collective level by the mechanism of selection: by eliminating those elements that reduce the fitness of the whole, provided these have skin in the game." 

E agora volto a encontrar mais tijolos para a estrutura em "Why Leaders Get Stuck at Average":

"We don’t automatically improve as time passes.  The longer we do something the more likely we are to do it like we’ve always done it.
...
Leading doesn’t make you a better leader. Just like playing golf doesn’t make you a better golfer.
.
The only way to improve performance – in any field – is purposeful practice. (Researchers and authors often use the expression ‘deliberate practice’.)"

E em "A basic theory of inheritance: How bad practice prevails":

"All organizations have “best practices”: habits that they have picked up in the past or mimicked from others. Managers often believe that these must be the best ways of doing things, because otherwise market forces would have eliminated them. The theory in the paper explains why this belief may be wrong. Some enduring practices may be harmful without managers realizing it because it is not necessarily the most optimal practices that survive (just like harmful viruses persist in nature)."

You make the magic!

Recordar "you need to enter their personal story" e "Mambo jambo de consultor ou faz algum sentido?".

A ver a penúltima etapa do Giro de Itália vejo um anúncio da marca de bicicletas Canyon, reparem nesta mensagem:

"We make the bike
...
You make the magic!!!"

Os doutorados emigrados

A propósito de "PME nunca vão criar emprego para doutorados", "Reitores: Lugar dos doutorados é nas empresas, não nas universidades" (BTW, estes dois textos fizeram-me lembrar aquele caso desta semana nos Estados Unidos em que os pais puseram o filho de 30 anos em tribunal para o expulsar de casa) e "Portugal continua a ter doutorados a menos e em situação precária", deixem-me contar-lhes uma estória verdadeira.

Investigador em laboratório universitário resolve testar o mercado e ir a entrevista de emprego em empresa privada. A empresa oferece-lhe 1800 euros por mês brutos. Acham que é um mau salário para alguém com menos de 28 anos e sem experiência fora da universidade?

O investigador pergunta quanto é que isso lhe permitirá ganhar líquido. Fazem umas contas de merceeiro na hora e dizem-lhe que isso equivale a cerca de 1200 euros líquidos por mês.

O investigador sorri e declina a proposta. Actualmente tem uma bolsa de investigação, julgo que de 1280 euros. Bolsa pelos vistos não é considerado salário, é considerado apoio ou subsídio. Por isso, tudo o que recebe é limpo de impostos.

Escusado será dizer que este investigador daqui a uns anos será mais um daqueles que andará pelas ruas a protestar porque não tem Segurança Social e tem precariedade laboral.

Qual é o salário médio do país? Quantas PME poderiam investir 1800 euros num investigador? Assim, para os doutorado, trabalhar para o Estado, ficar ad eternum com uma sequência de bolsas de investigação é quase o mesmo que emigrar para outro país onde se ganha mais, ou se pagam menos impostos.

O que medir?

"Replacing an accounting mindset with a decision-oriented mindset is a great starting point for defining relevant measures. [Moi ici: Recordar "Medimos, para que a informação obtida nos ajude a tomar decisões, ou a tomar melhores decisões."]"

Trecho retirado de "Are we measuring what matters?"

Para reflexão

Mão amiga mandou-me este texto, "Galinhas felizes e tabaco americano", num e-mail com um comentário venenoso a acompanhar.

E recordei esta figura:

E deste texto:

"Algum humano se recusa a comer mirtilhos?
.
Algum humano duvida que comer mirtilhos faz bem à saúde?
.
OK, agora, experimentem fazer um cocktail de sumo de mirtilho, comprando os químicos identificados lá em cima na fotografia e, depois, misturando-os nas proporções semelhantes às do fruto...
.
Quantos humanos se recusariam a beber esse "sumo"?"

Quando estudava na FEUP tinha um livro fotocopiado para a disciplina de IEQ (Introdução à Engenharia Química) com uma receita para a composição de sumo de laranja da Flórida. Nessa receita encontrava-se álcool metílico, uma substância cancerígena e que provoca a cegueira.

E volto ao texto:

"Um conselho prévio, procurem na internet os efeitos daqueles compostos aromáticos listados, por exemplo...
"The beauty of a living thing is not the atoms that go into it, but the way those atoms are put together"
O pensamento analítico julga que basta analisar os componentes isolados e, depois, juntá-los para perceber o que é o sistema... só que um sistema é mais do que a soma dos seus componentes."

Esta semana tive a felicidade de comer ervilhas que tive de descascar... venham-me dizer que é o mesmo sabor que comer ervilhas congeladas.

Cooperativa - a unidade económica do futuro?

Ontem, enquanto viajava de carro, já não sei qual a motivação, recordei os temas da série "O que passa-se?" e o que tenho escrito aqui ao longo dos anos acerca da cooperativa como uma unidade de trabalho com muito potencial em Mongo.

Depois, à noite encontrei "Des cafés associatifs pour réanimer les cœurs des villages". Acredito que veremos cada vez mais organizações deste tipo.

A evolução das marcas

"Now that change has become the new normal, brands have to evolve from the power of symbolism and the power of narration to the power of reciprocity. As brands morph from symbols and stories to systems, they need to find new ways to be relevant, useful, and entertaining. They need to create hospitable ecosystems and build upon ideas that welcome and nurture consumer relationships now and in the future."

Trecho retirado de "The Ways Customers Use Products Have Changed — but Brands Haven’t Kept Up"

Democratização da produção (parte I)

"Through the first century of mass production, companies emphasized maximizing throughput by making a relatively small assortment of standard products. Since the late 1980s, however, mass markets have fragmented, and firms increasingly turn out a greater variety of products that respond to specific customer demands in different market segments. This responsiveness to demand has led manufacturing plants to reverse a tradi- tional linear organization oriented to pushing out product and scheduling output on the basis of sales forecasts and, instead, to organize assembly in response to real-time orders—“pull.” This requires sophisticated integration of production planning and scheduling of plant operations and supply chain management.
.
But even with these changes of the past decades, manufacturing today still closely resembles its mass production ancestors. We now stand on the edge of radical changes in this system, as a set of new technologies emerging in laboratories and research centers across the United States promises to completely transform the traditional linear manufacturing organization. First, our ability to synthesize new materials has now advanced to a point where human design of these materials will become as critical a step as fabrication and assembly.
...
Second, the boundary between fabrication and assembly has blurred with the introduction of ultraefficient processes, automation, and even continuous manufacturing in batch sizes of “one.” Third, the product is often not just a physical artifact or widget but an integrated solution that involves bundling of physical products with services and software. Finally, there is a trend toward the systematic return of recycled materials to fabrication or even material synthesis."

Trechos retirados de "Making in America From innovation to Market" de Suzanne Berger

Acerca do contexto

Olhar para este mapa:

É difícil perceber o racional por trás do título... adiante.

 Lembra-se do fragilismo?

"Que países considera serem os mais arriscados?
.
Com base nas métricas que monitorizamos, neste momento estamos particularmente preocupados com economias com elevada dependência de financiamento externo. Esta é uma das razões para o severamente mau desempenho da Turquia, particularmente no lado da moeda." (fonte)

Relacionar com "Défice comercial duplica no primeiro trimestre de 2018" e com as mudanças no perfil das exportações e no perfil do emprego.

A invasão das sapatilhas

Hoje em dia é muito comum ouvir empresários do calçado queixarem-se da invasão das sapatilhas e de como elas estão a dar cabo do seu negócio.

Há dias ouvia alguém do retalho dizer que, para rapazes, só conseguia vender sapatilhas, a menos que estivesse por perto a altura das comunhões ou o Natal.

Pois parece que a coisa vai continuar por mais algum tempo e até reforçar-se, "Sneaker sales are growing as sales of high heels tumble":

"As American fashion has slowly become more casual, so has footwear. That trend has become especially apparent in women's sneaker sales, which have surged 37 percent throughout the U.S. in 2017. Meanwhile, sales of high heels have declined 11 percent during the same time period, according to the NPD Group's Retail Tracking Service.
...
"It's becoming kind of a basic consumer need to have comfort and the desire to be comfort because everybody's so busy and running around all the time," Beth Goldstein, NPD's executive director and industry analyst for fashion footwear and accessories, told CNBC.
.
"Brands that are focusing on comfort are doing better, because that something that women of all ages want," she said. The sneaker trend will likely continue in the double digits for the next few years, Goldstein added, as it becomes more of a lifestyle choice."

Não me admiro!

Quando existiam dinossauros no planeta Terra eu associava a marca Marks & Spencer a tudo menos low-cost. Trabalhava num fornecedor português da marca e associava-a a exigência na qualidade.

Hoje, os fornecedores portugueses da marca queixam-se da exigência paranóica no preço (custo).

Tendo em conta esta evolução:

E a importância do alinhamento entre estratégia, posicionamento da marca e operações, não me admiro com esta evolução "Marks & Spencer confirms expanded store closure programme".

Estratégia a sério implica sacrifício, implica trade-off, não é compatível com ser rico e ter saúde em simultâneo:

"there are no real surprises in Mr Rowe’s new strategy, which includes focusing on the quality and fit of clothing, “sharper” ranges, lower prices but less promotional activity." (fonte)

Estratégias possíveis

Um artigo longo, mas muito interessante, "Your Change Needs a Strategy".

5 tipos de estratégias possíveis em função da situação da organização:

• ‘Planned itinerary’
• ‘River crossing’ ("in certain contexts, we are unable to gain clarity on the means of change. In this case the appropriate change strategy is one we call ‘river crossing’. The end state is clear, but we need an exploratory approach to the path, taking one step at a time while keeping an eye on our destination.")
• ‘Hill climbing’
• 'Scouting and wandering’("There a strategy for change, odd as it may seem, which is organized around neither a clear end state nor clear means. This change is not driven by any immediate moves which seem obviously good, nor by any target state, but by curiosity, of a kind that will be useful in the long run.")
• ‘Escape the swamp’ ("Like ‘search and wandering’, this is not driven by a particular means, and the only clear aspect of the target state is that it must incorporate substantial and urgent change. We can call this ‘escape the swamp’. It applies in pressured situations such as the early stages of a turnaround, where there is limited time or resources to identify specific ends or means, but we are nevertheless driven to change.")

Interessante as possibilidades: ‘River crossing’, 'Scouting and wandering’ e ‘Escape the swamp’.

"imposto revolucionário"

Este texto "Now on Offer at the Supermarket: Freshly Squeezed Suppliers" fez-me pensar num e-mail   que me re-encaminharam recentemente.

Trabalhar para clientes grandes é estar sujeito a "imposto revolucionário".

"O que passa-se?" (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

Começa a ser interessante este aumento na frequência de artigos sobre a produção em Mongo e como se afastam do mainstream. Mais um, "Only Digital Manufacturing Can Create The Smart, Customized, On-Demand Products Consumers Want":

"Ask someone to describe manufacturing today, and they’ll probably describe giant machines operating in tandem along an assembly line putting together a product in vast quantities.
.
But as someone who works in manufacturing today, I can tell you that mass production – which has dominated how we’ve made things since the Industrial Revolution – is no longer the predominant manufacturing model.
.
Consumers today want products that are smarter, more customized and available on demand. The only way companies can satisfy this need is by creating a new business model that applies digital manufacturing strategies. Digital manufacturing – which combines software with physical manufacturing – can help manufacturers iterate faster, customize more, reduce lead times and respond more quickly to market changes."

Qual a direção de Mongo?

"Shorter Product Life Cycles: We may not always need the latest and greatest technologies, but we want them.
...
Greater Customization: Creating customized products is neither efficient nor cost effective with current mass production strategies.
...
Consumers want products that are smarter, more customized and available on demand. But consumer product, manufacturing companies and supply chain partners simply can’t meet this demand using the same business model we’ve used for decades. Instead, we need to understand and apply digital manufacturing strategies and embrace new tools that streamline operations."

Melhorar

De "Google Has an Official Process in Place for Learning From Failure--and It's Absolutely Brilliant":

"1. Identify the most important problems.
.
"A postmortem is the process our team undertakes to reflect on the learnings from our most significant undesirable events,"
...
2. Create a record.
.
"Our next step is to work together to create a written record for what happened, why, its impact, how the issue was mitigated or resolved, and what we'll do to prevent the incident from recurring,"
...
3. Promote growth. Not blame.
.
"Removing blame from a postmortem can enable team members to feel greater psychological safety to escalate issues without fear,"
...
The key is to encourage your people not to play "the blame game." Rather, you want them to focus on improvement and learning.
...
Remember, everyone makes mistakes. The question is, not "what if," but instead, what did we learn?"

E de "Toyota’s Secret: The A3 Report":

Aceleração

"Being on trend no longer guarantees sales and profitability in the fashion sector. In minutes, consumers can spot, own, and share a trend on social media, from any corner of the globe. As a result, hits can sell out rapidly, while misses do not move, even with heavy discounting.
.
The traditional product-development model is too slow. How do fashion brands outpace competitors? When we looked at differences between top and bottom performers, we found that top performers routinely use consumer insights very early in the product-design process and can have products ready for purchase in weeks, not months.
.
But established brands have great difficulty doing either well. This needs to change, as up-and-coming brands are breaking the rules and resetting consumer expectations. [Moi ici: Este título diz tudo "The Customer’s Time is The Only Time"]
...
Top performers make speed to market a top priority and get faster and faster. Top-performing companies can deliver product to market in less than six to eight weeks. The typical lead time in the industry is more than 40 weeks—far too long to stay ahead of consumers [Moi ici: Imaginem um empresário, ou um encarregado, habituados a sonhar com um regresso ao passado, às séries grandes, a um ritmo mais lento, ao ler estas linhas...]

Trecho retirado de "The need for speed: Capturing today’s fashion consumer"

E isto também vai ter o seu impacte "What Should French Fashion Do With Its Unsold Clothing?"

BTW,

"Winners have significantly reduced time to market, but they also recognize that not every product requires a speedy supply chain. Leading fashion companies have divided their product lines into the following supply-chain segments, based on sales predictability:
.
Long cycle for basics. Long lead times of six months or more are acceptable for basics and never-out-of-stock items. Optimized sourcing gets the best value for money on these products.
Shorter cycle for the core seasonal collection. Retailers can use advanced visual-recognition tools to identify styles and colors trending on social-media sites.
Express cycle for new in-season products. An even shorter cycle of three to six weeks from design to delivery allows brands to inject novelty or innovation within a single season.
Read-and-react model for new and untested products. Close monitoring of these items during the season (for example, for trending prints and colors) ensures fast replenishment of top sellers and easier cancellation of slow movers.
Test model for the riskiest products. Launching virtual or small test batches of a sharply trending item provides insight into the consumer response before committing fully to a product."

"There has to be enough energy for them to stop something and start something"

"Des: If you’re a startup founder, what’s a single step you can take with Jobs?
.
Bob: The greatest single step you can make is to actually talk to somebody who recently purchased you, and talk to somebody who recently quit you – or quit the competitor that you’re going after. By understanding these switching moments, you’re pulling a thread. And then once you’ve seen it, you can’t unsee it; you’ll see it over and over again.
.
The first step is always a set of interviews. I’m not talking about surveys. Literally get them on the phone and ask the basic question: why was today the day they signed up for this product? The thing you have to realize is that it’s not random, and you have to dig as hard as you can past the bullshit stuff they’ll tell you upfront. There’s always something deeper, because nobody really wants to switch. Habit is the strongest force of all, and people will just keep doing what they’re doing unless something gets in the way or something better comes a long. There has to be enough energy for them to stop something and start something.
.
Just go talk to your customers. That’s where this all began."

Trecho retirado de "Bob Moesta on unpacking customer motivations with Jobs-to-be-Done"

"The only reliable way to gather this evidence is by exploring what customers did in the past or will do in the present. Asking them what they’ll do in the future, e.g. “Will you use…”, puts you in the land of biases and should be avoided."

Trecho retirado de "Find Better Problems Worth Solving with the Customer Forces Canvas"

"I only care about what was going on in their life"

"Someone might tell you: “I went to give a report, and all of a sudden my bosses went crazy because it wasn’t the right data, and they made me look bad. So I have to find something better.” It’s usually the things they blame themselves for. They don’t say it’s about the product; it’s a separation between their experiences and product. You have to dig deeper than that: it’s really about seeing how products fit into people’s lives.
.
Trying to look at your customer through your product is like looking through a peephole in a fence. You can only see the little interactions they have, as opposed to getting above it all, looking at their life, and seeing how you actually fit in. That’s where the interview takes a turn, because most people always think you’re going to talk about the product. Instead, you’re talking about them.
.
When a lot of companies first start using JTBD they think, “I need you to ask about this feature and that feature.” I don’t care about any of those things. I only care about what was going on in their life that made them say, “Today’s the day.” Those are the pylons and the foundations by which people do things. They don’t think it’s part of your world as a product person, but they are the actual foundations by which you get pulled into their world."

Trecho retirado de "Bob Moesta on unpacking customer motivations with Jobs-to-be-Done"