"an escalation of commitment"

"an escalation of commitment – sticking with a once-successful strategy for too long. So how can companies avoid making a similar mistake when facing disruption? They must challenge mutually reinforcing biases that see people being influenced by a prior commitment to a particular course of action.
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This happens for six reasons:"

As seis razões são listadas em "Why leaders invest so much in failing strategies" e são uma chamada de atenção para os que crêem incondicionalmente na racionalidade humana.

Selecção e subsídios

Com Maliranta em 2007 aprendi aquela frase com que se inicia a coluna das citações:

"It is widely believed that restructuring has boosted productivity by displacing low-skilled workers and creating jobs for the high skilled."
Mas, e como isto é profundo:
"In essence, creative destruction means that low productivity plants are displaced by high productivity plants." Por favor voltar a trás e reler esta última afirmação.
E o grande finale:
"As creative destruction is shown to be an important element of economic growth, there is definitely a case for public policy to support this process, or at least avoid disturbing it without good reason. Competition in product markets is important. Subsidies, on the other hand, may insulate low productivity plants and firms from healthy market selection, and curb incentives for improving their productivity performance. Business failures, plant shutdowns and layoffs are the unavoidable byproducts of economic development."

Com Taleb em 2018 voltei ao tema:

"Systems don’t learn because people learn individually –that’s the myth of modernity. Systems learn at the collective level by the mechanism of selection: by eliminating those elements that reduce the fitness of the whole, provided these have skin in the game." 

E agora volto a encontrar mais tijolos para a estrutura em "Why Leaders Get Stuck at Average":

"We don’t automatically improve as time passes.  The longer we do something the more likely we are to do it like we’ve always done it.
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Leading doesn’t make you a better leader. Just like playing golf doesn’t make you a better golfer.
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The only way to improve performance – in any field – is purposeful practice. (Researchers and authors often use the expression ‘deliberate practice’.)"

E em "A basic theory of inheritance: How bad practice prevails":

"All organizations have “best practices”: habits that they have picked up in the past or mimicked from others. Managers often believe that these must be the best ways of doing things, because otherwise market forces would have eliminated them. The theory in the paper explains why this belief may be wrong. Some enduring practices may be harmful without managers realizing it because it is not necessarily the most optimal practices that survive (just like harmful viruses persist in nature)."

A crescente procura pela customização

"Organizations are naturally inclined to routinize things, and that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Through experience, they develop stable ways of working that coordinate and combine the efforts of various people and specialists. When an IVF clinic follows the standard protocol for a regular patient, for example, everybody knows exactly what to do and when, and the organization executes this task without much effort or disruption. It makes production fast, efficient, and reliable. Obviously, there's nothing wrong with fast, efficient, and reliable. But if you want to innovate, you'll need to disrupt this routine, and develop new solutions and new ways of working.
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To put it bluntly, your team needs to makes its own life difficult. This is exactly what IVF clinics did when they didn't turn away difficult cases. By treating patients with complex etiologies, they experienced more valuable learning opportunities than if they concentrated exclusively on higher-probability cases. By experimenting, reflectively communicating about the results, and codifying their newfound knowledge—the three critical components of team learning behavior—the clinics were able to improve their practices in the long term.
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You can't innovate without ever trying something new. This may sound quite obvious - and, frankly, it is - but many organizational processes and practices are precisely aimed at not doing this. Process management techniques (such as ISO 9001), for instance, are aimed at making processes more reliable and secure. In general, organizations are inclined to try to rule out variability and instead concentrate on what works best."

Li isto e relacionei logo com "The Great Strength and Debilitating Weakness of Modern Medicine… and Management" e:

"The great strength of modern medicine lies in the fits that work. The patient enters the hospital with a diseased heart and leaves soon after with a repaired one. But where the fit fails can be found modern medicine’s debilitating weakness. Fits fail, more often generally realized, beyond the categories, across the categories, and beneath the categories.
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Dr. Atul Gawande, in a New Yorker article entitled “The Bell Curve” (6 December 2004), reported on his observation of a renowned cystic fibrosis physician. He wrote the protocols that others used, yet had much better results. Meeting a young woman, and seeing a reduced measure of lung-function, he asked if she was taking her treatments. She said that she was. But he probed further, to discover that she had a new boyfriend and a new job that were getting in the way of taking those treatments. Together they figured out how she could alter her schedule.
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Here, then, lay the good doctor’s secret: he treated the person and not just the patient, by delving beneath the medical context, to her personal situation."

Escrevi há anos um postal, que agora não consigo recuperar sobre uma empresa de dispositivos médicos que era muito eficiente e muito bem sucedida, mas quando quis dar um salto descobriu o poder da "to makes its own life difficult" ao começar a trabalhar no aprofundamento da customização.

Trechos iniciais retirados de "Breaking Bad Habits" de Freek Vermeulen.

Não é fácil escapar das armadilhas

"Managers often unknowingly adopt bad practices when they try to benchmark their organizations against the other companies in their industries.
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For instance, some years ago, whenever GE did something new, many firms were inclined to immediately imitate it. Like a lot of people, the managers at these organizations assumed that GE's leaders knew it all: "Surely, when they do it, it must be a good thing, because they're such a successful firm."
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Indeed, research has confirmed that organizations tend to imitate the actions of other companies that stand out as successful, even when it is clear that the newly developed practice is not the cause of the company's success.
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The press does it, too. Journalists habitually write about top-performing companies and interview their CEOs, rather than the average Joes. We, admittedly, do it in business schools: we teach cases about the best, blue-chip companies, ignoring the less-sexy average types."[Moi ici: A propósito disto recordar "Cuidado com o título"]

Agora pensem nos artigos da revista Exame, pensem nas posições que a CIP defende, pensem nas decisões das associações de sector chefiadas pelos líderes das empresas grandes.

Freek Vermeulen dá como título à secção de onde retirei estes trechos "Benchmarking is BS"... pois é.



Trechos retirados de "Breaking Bad Habits" de Freek Vermeulen

"And, like a virus, it begins to spread to other organizations"

"The first reason that organizations follow bad practices is that we tend to believe in a Darwinian view of management. We believe that competition weeds out bad practices and props up the best ones. Therefore, we believe that the most successful firms must be following the best management practices, while unsuccessful firms are not. And, since those best practices help firms perform better, those are the ones that thrive and survive and gradually take over.
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This isn't always true. Great companies aren't infallible; they make mistakes, too, and their processes and strategies can be just as inefficient and harmful as others'.
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Second, organizations adopt bad practices because it enhances their legitimacy, as economic sociologists call it companies are obliged to adopt or continue to follow a best practice because it is an industry norm, and if they choose not to follow it, investors, customers, and competitors will frown upon it. [Moi ici: Isto dá para recordar conversa de há dias em empresa em que alguém se interrogava se fazia sentido, para a sua empresa em particular, seguir a moda da APICCAPS de considerar os EUA um mercado apetecível]
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The third reason is as simple as it is frustrating. Sometimes we carry on with bad practices because that's the way it's always been done in our organizations. We side with the past and don't think twice about it. Most of the time, these practices don't start off as bad, but over time, as the organization or its competitive landscape changes, the practice becomes unsuitable. But no one questions it because we see its longevity as a sure sign of its continuing success.
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Bad practices wouldn't be as much of a problem if our organizations were quick to change and adapt. But they aren't. Once adopted, a bad practice is hard to identify and often refuses to quit. And, like a virus, it begins to spread to other organizations."

Trechos retirados de "Breaking Bad Habits" de Freek Vermeulen

Sem escolhas não há estratégia

"Many strategy execution processes fail because the firm does not have something worth executing.
...
One major reason for the lack of action is that “new strategies” are often not strategies at all. A real strategy involves a clear set of choices that define what the firm is going to do and what it’s not going to do. Many strategies fail to get implemented, despite the ample efforts of hard-working people, because they do not represent a set of clear choices.
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Execution involves change. Embrace it."

Trechos retirados de "Many Strategies Fail Because They’re Not Actually Strategies"

"algo que a empresa já tem no seu ADN "

Há dias num e-mail tentei descrever de modo sucinto a metodologia que sigo para facilitar a formulação da estratégia numa PME. Escrevi, entre outras coisas, este trecho:

"Normalmente trabalho com PME. E partimos do princípio de que uma PME não tem a veleidade de mudar o mundo nem tem capital suficiente para mudar radicalmente de vida. Assim, procuro que seja feita uma reflexão acerca do ADN da empresa.
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O que trouxe a empresa até aqui? O que pode servir de ponto de apoio para alavancar uma hipótese de futuro? Onde é que a empresa dá cartas, tem uma vantagem competitiva, pode diferenciar-se? Com que produtos/marcas e clientes consegue melhores margens ou tem menos concorrência?
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Assim, partindo de algo que a empresa já tem no seu ADN e que a diferencia ou dá potencial de diferenciação peço que desenhemos o ecossistema da procura para a sua oferta futura. Por ecossistema da procura entendo o desenho das entidades externas que a empresa deve privilegiar para criar o futuro modelo de negócio."

Algo que se sintoniza bastante bem com algo que leio em "Strategy is the story":

"Frank Martin, who as a CEO orchestrated the revival of the British model-train maker, Hornby, by turning it from a toy company into a hobby company, put his strategy story in just 15 words. “We make perfect scale models for adult collectors, which appeal to some sense of nostalgia.” He decided to focus on making perfect scale models because that is what collectors look for. Moreover, people would usually specifically collect the Hornby brand because it reminded them of their childhood, and with it a nostalgic, foregone era. Frank Martin’s choices were not just a bunch of disconnected strategic decisions; they hung together, and, combined, made for a logical story.
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Second, the story must tie to the company’s resources. Importantly, the set of choices has to be clearly linked to the company’s unique resources, those that can give them a competitive advantage in an attractive segment of the market. Although Hornby had been hovering on the brink of bankruptcy for a decade, it still had some valuable resources. First of all, it possessed a valuable brand that was very well-known and appreciated by people who had owned a Hornby train as children.
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Additionally, the company had a great design capability in its hometown of Margate. However, these resources weren’t worth much when competing with the cheaper Chinese toy makers. The children who wanted a toy train for their birthday didn’t know (and could care less) about the Hornby brand. The precision modelling skills of the engineers in Margate weren’t of much value in the toy segment, where things mostly had to be robust and durable. However, these two resources — an iconic brand and a design capability — were of considerable value when making ‘perfect scale models for adult collectors’. It was a perfect match of existing resources to strategy."

Um bom exemplo do racional que procuro seguir no exercício. O que é que há no nosso CV que possa ser usado para fazer a diferença a trabalhar para outros clientes-alvo com outra proposta de valor?

Quantos decisores corariam?

1º Considerar a transição para aquilo a que chamamos de Mongo, a evolução para o Estranhistão = um mundo com cada vez mais tribos apaixonadas e menos gente dentro da caixa da normalidade. Cada vez mais gente que não quer ser tratada como mais um, como plankton.

2º Há anos que escrevo aqui e prego, muitas vezes no deserto, acerca das consequências desta evolução para as empresas, um perigo para as empresas grandes, uma exigência crescente para mais empresas mais pequenas para serem focadas num grupo específico de clientes. Pois, salami slicers em vez de Bruce Jenner! E recordar este insight poderoso:

"Customers often think we are different not because we are different, but because we recognize what makes them different"

O trecho que se segue encaixa-se perfeitamente nesta linha de raciocínio:

"Customers are often more heterogeneous than the companies that serve them. Trying to be a one-stop shop and attempting to appeal to a wide spectrum of customers, isn’t necessarily a smart strategy."[Moi ici: Quantos decisores corariam se lessem este trecho e intuissem o que é que ele significa?]

Poucos acreditam num engenheiro da província que faz previsões sobre um futuro a que apelida de Mongo. No entanto, ... muito à frente.

"If you are in an industry where most firms are alike, and the norm is to offer value to a wide spectrum of customers, I predict that at some point – maybe not too far into your future – someone will disrupt your industry by developing a superior value proposition for a very particular customer segment. It’s in those industries where innovation is most feasible and plausible.
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Focusing your value proposition – whether it is the one for customers or the one for employees – on a specific group of people can empower you to make innovative trade-offs. It can enable you to eliminate traditional trappings that are no longer to everyone’s liking and do a better job across different dimensions.
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In this way, homogeneity in your industry allows you to stop doing certain things that have become outdated. It frees you up to stop offering services and products that target everyone. This opportunity for innovation is not about emulating the awe-inspiring, hi-tech Silicon Valley firms, instead, it’s about making smarter use of the heterogeneity in your business."

Isto é tão claro, tão inevitável para mim...

Imaginem o impacte que isto terá para as empresas grandes...

Pensem nos hummer da Volvo.

Trechos retirados de "Strategy - stop doing what everyone does"

Porque persistimos no obsoleto

Quando penso no Estranhistão visualizo logo esta evolução:

Na evolução de um mundo com um único pico, um mundo onde todas as empresas num mesmo sector competiam da mesma forma pelo BIG HIT, para um mundo com n picos, com n hipóteses de competição.

E penso nas empresas que, conscientemente ou não, têm estratégias baseadas na competição pelo BIG HIT, estratégias que há muito tempo passaram o seu prazo de validade mas que continuam a ser seguidas porque no passado resultaram.

Recomendo a escuta desta comunicação de Freek Vermeulen sobre as tradições e a sua persistência para além do prazo de validade: