Acerca do velho "Too big to care"

Quinta-feira passada ao principio da tarde, no final de uma reunião, recordava Tom Peters com o seu "Too big to care":

• De 2015 - Too Big To Care
• De 2017 - Too big to care

Sexta-feira ao final da tarde li "Regressing to the mean all by yourself" de Seth Godin:

""The mean" is the average. Another word for "mediocre."

When an organization gets big enough, by definition, it's the average.

When you have enough customers, they represent the population as a whole.

If you find yourself seeking to serve the largest possible number of people, you've signed up to be average. Without a doubt, you're raising the bar compared to the ones who came before, but scale has its costs.

If you ship enough products to enough people, average is inevitable."

"the real impacts happen when they act like small ones"

Há anos fixei um tweet de Tom Peters neste postal Too Big To Care que voltei a referir neste outro postal Too big to care.

Ontem, recordei-me dele ao ler Seth Godin em "Is it possible to care at scale?":

"Caring at scale can’t be done by the CEO or a VP. But what these folks can do is create a culture that cares. They can hire people who are predisposed to care. They can pay attention to the people who care and measure things that matter instead of chasing the short term.

Large organizations have significant structural advantages. But the real impacts happen when they act like small ones."

A caminho de Mongo

"Welcome to the factory of the future: It's smaller, more nimble, and run by highly skilled Americans. Just as important, networks of these facilities could crop up across the United States, bringing manufacturing closer to your consumers and lessening your reliance on a crippled global supply chain."

Esta descrição de Mongo parece retirada deste blogue.

Trecho retirado de "The Factory of the Future Is Here--and It's Run by Americans (and Small Robots)"

"it’s a chance to make a difference"

Um bom texto, mais um de Seth Godin:

"Interactions with the people who are enrolled and giving you the benefit of the doubt are a form of avocado time. They shouldn’t be optimized for efficiency or even leverage. Instead, it’s a chance to make a difference."

Como não relacionar com Stephen Covey e não só em "Every visit customers have to make ..."

Turquia - Portugal em 144 horas

Sábado fez 10 anos que publiquei "Pregarás o Evangelho do Valor", depois fui para Arrifana onde fui trabalhar com os amigos Paulo e Pedro. Julgo que foi ao final dessa manhã que me apresentaram o amigo António.

Sábado ao princípio da noite o amigo Pedro mandou-me esta imagem via WhatsApp:

Portugal -> Turquia e Turquia -> Portugal com entregas em 144h (6 dias).

Como não recordar um texto publicado fez ontem três meses ""Come on! Esta gente não analisa os números?"" onde escrevi:

"O que ressalta é a evolução turca e albanesa. Em 2010 a Turquia exportava cerca de 75 milhões de pares de sapatos, em 2019 exportou 275 milhões de pares a um preço médio de 3.29 USD. A Albânia em 10 anos duplicou as suas exportações. Presumo, pelo preço médio de cada par, que há ali mão de know-how italiano."

E chamei a atenção para a transitoriedade do status quo no sector privado exportador. A base do sucesso do modelo nos últimos 10 anos posta em causa por dois países próximos do centro da Europa com custos de produção muito baixos. Por isso:

"finding a sustainable competitive advantage may not be that important. What is important, however, is that companies have a contingency plan to deal with the upcoming prospects for an expansion of available resources or possible constraints created by other actors in the market." 

E isto joga bem com a mensagem do lucro como uma ilusão, parte significativa dele é para pagar os custos do futuro, como aprendi com Schumpeter. Há que estar sempre focado no amanhã, recordo esta série "Quantas empresas". Recomendo a parte X dessa série.

E já agora, na sequência dessa parte X, voltar ao postal de ontem sobre "The search for a profitable niche market"

Every visit customers have to make ...

"Efficiency with people is ineffective. With people, fast is slow and slow is fast." - Stephen R. Covey #Efficiency #Effectiveness #7Habits #QOTD pic.twitter.com/0tFMw7eENd

— Stephen R. Covey (@StephenRCovey) February 9, 2021

Sim, segunda metade dos anos 90, aprendi esta lição com este senhor. Influenciou postais como:

• Small is better (Abril de 2010) 
• "aposta noutro mindset" (Julho de 2015)
• "the connection economy is all about being human" (Maio de 2016)

E fez-me criticar esta nota desde a primeira vez que a vi:

"Quem não aposta no "cheaper" e no "cost", aposta na interacção, aposta na co-criação, aposta noutro mindset... eu diria, "Every visit customers have to make are an opportunity for interaction and co-creation"

Nunca esquecer, Golias pode apostar e ganhar com a automação porque está no seu ADN; contudo, David não tem qualquer vantagem em seguir esse caminho, tem muito mais a perder do que os euros que poupa."

"Come on! Esta gente não analisa os números?"

O título tirei-o deste postal de Outubro último, "Tamanho, produtividade e a receita irlandesa".

Se há coisa que não gosto é de gente que não analisa os números. Gente que fala de cor e constrói explicações assentes em areia.

Em Junho último em "that model died this year" escrevi: 

"México = Marrocos, Turquia, Roménia e Bulgária."

Em Agosto passado em "A caminho da Sildávia, portanto" escrevi:

"No final da conversa João Duque brinda-nos com uma ilustração da ligeireza com que o mundo académico segue a micro-economia. Segundo João Duque o sucesso do calçado nos últimos anos foi baseado no desenvolvimento de marcas... de marcas? Come on! Quantas marcas ganham dinheiro? Quantas marcas ao fim de 5 anos ainda estão vivas? Desenvolver marca é uma forma de sacar dinheiro de projectos europeus, mesmo que bem intencionada, mas que morre quando acaba o financiamento. O que foi desenvolvido e bem foi a marca "Made in Portugal" para que marcas estrangeiras viessem para Portugal aproveitar a sua "uniqueness" da proximidade produção-consumo (rapidez, flexibilidade, qualidade). BTW, mas é outra conversa, esta uniqueness já se foi graças à Turquia, Roménia, Marrocos, Argélia, Tunísia, Bulgária, ..."

Pelos vistos também estava a incorrer num erro, porque não tinha olhado para os números com olhos de ver. Assim, aproveitei o empréstimo que a colega Rita me fez do World Footwear 2020 Yearbook, publicado pela APICCAPS, e olhei para os números.

Primeiro, na tabela que se segue não vamos encontrar a Argélia porque as exportações são residuais, não chegaram a um milhão de pares em 2019.

Afinal a Roménia e Marrocos passaram a década em queda na exportação de calçado. A Tunísia está, ao fim de 10 anos, a voltar ao nível das exportações de 2010. Foram 5 anos a cair com a Primavera Árabe, e 5 anos a recuperar. A Bulgária tem-se mantido estagnada em torno dos valores de 2010. 

O que ressalta é a evolução turca e albanesa. Em 2010 a Turquia exportava cerca de 75 milhões de pares de sapatos, em 2019 exportou 275 milhões de pares a um preço médio de 3.29 USD. A Albânia em 10 anos duplicou as suas exportações. Presumo, pelo preço médio de cada par, que há ali mão de know-how italiano.

Assim, temos dois países próximos do centro da Europa com custos de produção muito baixos.

Lá em cima fala-se de uniqueness, no postal anterior falava-se, metaforicamente, em superpoderes. O factor proximidade ... foi-se. Como li há dias no livro SMASH: Using Market Shaping to Design New Strategies for Innovation, Value Creation, and Growth de Kaj Storbacka e Suvi Nenonen. 

"finding a sustainable competitive advantage may not be that important. What is important, however, is that companies have a contingency plan to deal with the upcoming prospects for an expansion of available resources or possible constraints created by other actors in the market."

Tudo é transiente, tudo é temporário. 

 

Que cadeias de abastecimento para os próximos dois anos? (parte II)

Parte I.

"Even as factories come back online, new problems are constantly emerging. Brands are changing how they approach their supply chains in ways that will resonate long after the crisis. In many cases, flexibility is now a top priority. So is transparency, as the ability to keep tabs on where fabric and raw materials are at any given moment can now make or break a business.
...
Manufacturers have problems of their own, including cancelled orders from brands that had to close stores and are now stuck with warehouses full of unsold spring clothes. Tal Group, which manufactures products for brands including Michael Kors and Patagonia, expects order volumes to be down between 40 and 50 percent for the rest of the year. In April, it announced it would close operations at its two factories in Malaysia.
...
Some brands are moving their manufacturing out of China. This was a trend before the pandemic, due to rising costs and a simmering trade war with the US. In the McKinsey survey, around 60 percent of respondents said they expected manufacturing clusters to develop more quickly in markets like Eastern Europe and Central America that are closer to customers in the US and Western Europe.
...
“The dividing line between winners and losers are the ones who will be able to adapt fast and in an intelligent way.”"

Trechos retirados de "How to Avoid the Next Supply Chain Shock"

Que cadeias de abastecimento para os próximos dois anos?

"Assuming the pandemic lifts and lockdowns end, the medium-term threat to long and complex supply chains comes from two sets of decisions. One is by companies concluding they have overexposed themselves to shocks. The other is governments trying to force businesses to diversify supply internationally or to bring their production home.
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On the first, it is unclear whether shortening or diversifying supply chains would have helped companies avoid a global shock such as Covid-19. [Moi ici: Fico admirado com esta argumentação. O que se passou, passou-se. As decisões do futuro serão acerca do contexto do futuro. Daqui - "it may take up to two years to fully restore consumer confidence" - que cadeias de abastecimento serão mais flexíveis para gerir os próximos dois anos? Que cadeias de abastecimento serão mais flexíveis para as tentativas, erros e reposições mais frequentes?] There is a strong view among some academics and management theorists that it would. Beata Javorcik, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, wrote in the FT:
“The quest to find the most cost-effective suppliers has left many companies without a plan B. Businesses will be forced to rethink their global value chains . . . the disadvantages of a system that requires all of its elements to work like clockwork have now been exposed.”
...
Meanwhile, the costs of changing supplier — and sourcing from more than one provider to spread the risk — is prohibitively expensive for an industry as complex as carmaking. “You need to spend a great deal of management time and effort and expertise on actually making sure the supplier you have chosen has processes that are capable, reliable and repeatable,” Mr Neill says.
...
The combination of labour cost arbitrage and clusters of specialisms push companies towards constructing a disaggregated international value chain.
...
Second, China has actively encouraged its companies to create supply chains with state help through the Belt and Road Initiative, which includes a strong motivation to service the European market. There will always be some life in global supply chains as long as the vast resources of the Chinese state are busy building infrastructure and establishing trading links across the world."

Trechos retirados de "Will coronavirus pandemic finally kill off global supply chains?"

Portanto, cuidado com pedintes que ameaçam sair da União Europeia

Quem conhece este blogue já sabe que há muitos anos escrevo sobre o eficientismo, escrevo sobre o denominador, escrevo sobre aquilo a que chamo a doença ango-saxónica.

Sobre a doença anglo-saxónica recordo, por exemplo:

• "Acerca da doença anglo-saxónica" (Agosto de 2019)
• "A doença anglo-saxónica" (Julho de 2019)
• "o choque com a teimosia anglo-saxónica de continuar a acreditar no século XX: eficiência, volume, escala, custo." (Junho de 2017)
• "Esta ideia da concorrência perfeita tornou-se no modelo mental da gestão anglo-saxónica que permeia e molda o pensamento dos autores da narrativa oficial, aqui e no resto do mundo." (Fevereiro de 2014)

O paradigma desta doença é Kevin O'Leary.

Sobre o eficientismo recordo, por exemplo:

• Fragilidade, flexibilidade, futuro e eficiência (Novembro de 2019)
• Contra o Evangelho do Eficientismo (Março de 2016)

Não posso listar um décimo dos postais que escrevi sobre estes temas, apenas recordo mais um. O título que se segue lista o vocabulário clássico usado neste blogue acerca do tema: "profecia fácil do "hollowing", ou "radioclubização", de como uma marca forte e genuína se transforma numa carcaça, num aristocrata arruinado, fruto de deixarem os muggles à solta" (Fevereiro de 2019)

O contrário da doença anglo-saxónica é seguir a via de Mongo. Em "Acerca do eficientismo", um postal de Dezembro de 2018, relaciono tudo isto, voltando a um postal de Dezembro de 2011, "Estranhistão ... weirdistão" e a outro de Agosto de 2011 sobre a sabedoria nabateia.

Por que recordo tudo isto?

Ontem à noite, já deitado, dei uma última vista de olhos pela minha timeline do Twitter e encontrei:

My new @washingtonpost editorial. The virus shows that making our companies efficient also made our country weak https://t.co/OKvzqd96sR More to come in my Sep 2020 book: When More is not Better: Overcoming America's Obsession with Economic Efficiency

— Roger L. Martin (@RogerLMartin) March 27, 2020

Alguns sublinhados do artigo:

"Efficiency is an unforgiving master. It crushes everything not in service of an immediate bottom line. But if there is a single economic policy lesson to learn from the coronavirus pandemic, it is that the United States’ obsession with efficiency over the past half-century has brutally undermined its capacity to deal with such a catastrophic event.
.
Efficiency requires us to force out duplication and redundancy, increase specialization and more seamlessly connect things together. Resilience, on the other hand, enables us to adapt to changes in our environment. Efficiency and resilience are opposing forces in our economy, and the pandemic has shown us the high price we are paying for the modern focus on efficiency at the expense of resilience"

Como não recuar ao meu mágico Verão de 2008, mágico porque aprendi tanta coisa que influenciou o meu trabalho até hoje:

Quanto mais pura é uma estratégia, maior rentabilidade se pode obter, mas também maior o risco, e menor a flexibilidade, e maior a taxa de mortalidade se o mundo mudar rapidamente. Daí a importância de uma floresta de estratégias diversificadas a que chamo Mongo, um mundo de inúmeros picos na paisagem competitiva enrugada:

Daí o meu fascínio por um artigo de 2007 que citei pela primerira vez aqui em "O Grande Planeador, o Grande Geómetra, já era!":

"Life is the most resilient thing on the planet. It has survived meteor showers, seismic upheavals, and radical climate shifts. And yet it does not plan, it does not forecast, and, except when manifested in human beings, it possesses no foresight. So what is the essential thing that life teaches us about resilience?
Just this: Variety matters. Genetic variety, within and across species, is nature's insurance policy against the unexpected. A high degree of biological diversity ensures that no matter what particular future unfolds, there will be at least some organisms that are well-suited to the new circumstances."

Cuidado com os arautos de um novo socialismo, cuidado com os defensores de um governo mundial: o CyberSyn só nos trará a venezuelização como destino final.

Voltando ao artigo de Roger Martin:

"Third, by spreading so quickly, this pandemic has already illustrated the downside of our seamlessness in travel and trade. Early on in this pandemic, complete travel bans were seen as overly disruptive and draconian. For the future, we need to accept that the timely imposition of travel restrictions, within and across countries, is a powerful and necessary weapon, and adjust our travel expectations accordingly.
.
All these measures would introduce productive friction into a system that has been developed over 50 years to be as ruthlessly efficient as possible. As this pandemic has shown us, we need to value other qualities such as redundancy and buffers, if we are to tackle the next catastrophic event."

Daqui ressalta a importância da proximidade, outro tema desenvolvido ao longo dos anos aqui no blogue. Daqui ressalta a importância que a União Europeia como espaço económico comum representa para este pais socialista, pobre (sim, eu sei é uma redundância), envelhecido e dominado por instituições extractivas.

Basta olhar para esta tabela, retirada do dossiê sobre Portugal no World Footwear Yearbook Snapshot 2017

Qual o preço médio de um par de sapatos exportado de Portugal? 26,09 USD
Qual o preço médio de um par de sapatos importado para Portugal? 11,69 USD

Mais uma vez, cuidado com os "bicicletas" deste mundo, autênticos Sarumans nas suas torres de marfim, sem noção do que é a realidade da vida micro-económica, mas sempre dispostos a agir como governantes iluminados que sabem melhor do que nós próprios o que é melhor para nós. Convido à leitura desta série de quatro postais de Outubro de 2015 que ilustram factualmente a ignorância dessa gente.

Como diz o grande Nassim Taleb: Intelectuals Yet Idiots.

Portanto, cuidado com pedintes que ameaçam sair da União Europeia se não lhes derem o dinheiro para continuar o deboche que nos tem trazido até aqui, um país político que gasta tanto tempo e energia a discutir como distribuir a riqueza e não se preocupa em como facilitar a sua criação .

Alterações que podem ter implicações ...

Alterações que podem ter implicações para a indústria portuguesa:

• encomendas mais pequenas;
• mais encomendas feitas para reposição;
• menos tempo entre a data de recepção da encomenda e a data da sua entrega;
• mais encomendas colocadas na Europa do que na Ásia?

Na sequência de "France Moves To Ban The Destruction Of Unsold Luxury Goods In Favor Of Recycling":

"The French government announced an end to the destruction of unsold non-food stock earlier this week, calling time on a practice that is common in the luxury retail sector. More than $730 million of returns and unsold inventory are routinely thrown away or destroyed by consumer goods retailers in France, and the practice is widespread in the luxury sector in an effort to maintain label exclusivity. The current value of goods thrown away or destroyed is five times more than those given away." 

 Não é só no "common in the luxury retail sector". Recordar:

• "How Amazon destroys millions of new items it can’t sell with everything from TVs to kitchen equipment, books and nappies dumped in landfill sites";
• "Taking stock of fashion’s $210bn inventory problem"
• "Destroying Unsold Clothes Is Fashion’s Dirty Secret. And We’re Complicit."

Countering commoditization begins with ... (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

O quadrante "Core" é o ponto de partida para muitos dos desafios em que acompanho as PMEs. 

"Core This quadrant, low on both value-adding dimensions, is a starting point where the offer lacks sufficient differentiation to avoid becoming a commodity. Customers do not perceive compelling differences between the firm and its rivals in their value propositions. What is offered is not sufficiently adapted to the specific requirements of individual customers or their segments, nor does it have an added ‘bundled’ value besides the core product. Under this scenario the firm is obliged to look beyond its core for the missing differentiation that comes with added value."

As hipóteses são:

"Targeted Extension This quadrant represents a strategy that aims to add value by extending its core offer to more closely meet the special and possibly unique needs of the market segments or even the individual accounts it serves.
...
System Development Firms choosing to compete in this quadrant develop a package of products and services that offer the synergistic benefits of a ‘system’.
...
Solutions Innovation What happens when the firm’s offer consists of a full set of bundled products and services that are specifically targeted at certain customer segments or individual accounts?"

A figura que se segue ilustra com o exemplo da SKF:

 Interessante como o quadrante das Total solutions = Solutions Innovation é um exemplo perfeito da máxima "Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs". Não vendem rolamentos, vendem os resultados que os clientes procuram. Os rolamentos foram um instrumento inicial para o arranque da conversa.

speed = value

Às vezes estou a ler um texto e não consigo deixar de exclamar:

- DUH!

Desta vez foi com "Fashion Needs a New Business Model. Speed is the Answer":

"call out the conventional supply chain model as “dead.” The same report downgraded Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger parent PVH for the first time in eight years. Although Calvin Klein sales increased by $876 million since 2013, profit declined over that period by $20 million. PVH’s inventory turns hit all-time lows, while total inventory hit all-time highs. Sales growth based on higher inventory risk, the analysts argued, is no longer acceptable.
...
As an alternative, they offered a new thesis: speed = value. Cowen demonstrates that even modest change in speed equates to gross margin improvement, a model which can be projected across the sector and to clothing and accessories.
...
Supply chains must move faster if they are to be more responsive to accelerating changes in demand. More important than cutting weeks of time out of the design-to-delivery calendar is building a link between retail supply flexibility and market value. Citing work by Warren H. Hausman of Stanford University, the critical metric is capital based on process innovation that reduces finished goods’ lead times from months to weeks.
The source of being fast is supply flexibility in the first mile of the supply chain, in contrast to last mile logistics. This means upstream management to delay – or postpone -- finished goods commitments. The impact of this strategy is to reduce or remove fashion uncertainty and exploit much shorter working capital cycles.
...
Speed, in summary, is not an operational challenge in sourcing alone. It is a firm-wide cultural commitment to speed decision-making, to be responsive to trends and to synchronise and share value across partners."

Recordo:

• Janeiro de 2007 - Flexigurança, fiscalidade e competitividade 
• Dezembro de 2009 - Aproveitar as nossas armas
• Fevereiro de 2012 - Cadeias de fornecimento mais curtas
• Março de 2012 - Hora da batota?

Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs (parte XIII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X, parte XI e parte XII. 

"for many of today’s industrial vendors the ability to create value is less than matched by the power to capture it, because in commoditized markets the customer is the driver in an unbalanced distribution of bargaining power. The consequences for suppliers can be serious: declining prices and margins, inferior returns on investment, and the risk of falling into a ‘commodity trap’ where the pressure on profitability leads to reduced investment in product (or service) innovation, which in turn leads to further loss of differentiation and even greater pressure on prices and margins. Few marketers can escape this vicious cycle with their shirts on.
.
Can industrial companies counter commoditization and avoid falling victim to their ever more powerful, hard-bargaining customers?.
The answer for a growing number of companies is an affirmative one. These firms have learned that while core product advantages erode and pressure on prices never lets up, they can still do profitable business by pursuing value-added strategies including aligning themselves with key customers. Put differently, these companies have discovered profitable opportunities in stretching beyond their core products by offering customers compellingly differentiated values. They have thus successfully countered commoditization.
...
Consider the following examples.

• SKF, the world’s largest ball-bearing manufacturer, ... to maintain their production machinery, reduce or eliminate downtime and maximize plant yield.

• ...

• Raisio Chemicals, a major supplier of chemical compounds ... developing new products, upgrading paper quality and improving printability. The company offers its important customers access to its technical staff and facilities, including a unique pilot coating machine and a newly built printing plant, for testing and experimentation."

Dois exemplos da concentração nos inputs e não nos outputs.

Trechos retirados de "3 Countering Commoditization: Value-added Strategies and Aligning with Customers" de Kamran Kashani

Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs (parte XII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X e parte XI.

Recordar 

"Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs nada mais nada menos do que aplicar uma regra fundamental do Design Thinking.
.
Começar pelo que o cliente, ou o consumidor, ou o prescritor (começar por um actor do ecossistema) precisa ou quer fazer. Quais as suas motivações, que problema é que está a tentar resolver.[Moi ici: Recordar sobretudo a parte IX]
.
A Empatia é a chave. Não é acerca da nossa empresa. Precisamos da capacidade de perceber e partilhar os sentimentos de outros"

E considerar "How Not to Fail at Retail":

"Think About: Input Before Output
.
We all know how online shopping works: a customer can search for products based on various criteria. But an online store isn’t very good at asking probing questions to find out what a consumer really cares about.
.
As Frank asked me questions about what I wanted to accomplish with this new amplifier, he gathered key information before suggesting what the right solution would be. He put himself in a position to make recommendations to me that guitarcenter.com would never be able to make. And he helped me learn more about what was really important to me.
.
Could I have bought the amp on guitarcenter.com? Sure. But now that Frank has acted like a trusted advisor and helped me with my decision making, I’m much less likely to close the deal online. And truthfully, the only place I even considered making the purchase was in-person, with Frank.
...
As an in-store salesperson learns about a consumer’s needs and interests, they can do something that an online retailer can do in only the most rudimentary fashion: frame the product’s story in terms of the particular benefits to this individual customer.
.
An online product listing can tell of generic benefits, such as “gets your teeth their whitest” or “saves you $432 per year in energy costs.” An in-person retail experience can do so much more.
...
Brick and mortar retailers have lost many of the advantages they once had, including providing better access to products and the convenience of “location, location, location.” But in-person retailers still have the advantage of proximate, meaningful human contact to that allows them to better listen to customers, collaborate with them and personalize their purchase experience."

BINGO!! (parte II)

Parte I.

Ainda de "Value Never Actually Disappears, It Just Shifts From One Place To Another" sublinho outro tema clássico aqui no blogue:

"You Can’t Compete With A Robot By Acting Like OneThe future is always hard to predict. While it was easy to see that Amazon posed a real problem for large chain bookstores like Barnes & Noble and Borders, it was much less obvious that small independent bookstores would thrive. In much the same way, few saw that ten years after the launch of the Kindle that paper books would surge amid a decline in e-books.
.
The one overriding trend over the past 50 years or so is that the future is always more human. In Dan Schawbel’s new book, Back to Human, the author finds that the antidote for our overly automated age is deeper personal relationships. Things like trust, empathy and caring can’t be automated or outsourced.
.
There are some things a machine will never do. It will never strike out in a little league game, have its heart broken or see its child born. That makes it hard — impossible really — for a machine ever to work effectively with humans as a real person would. The work of humans is increasingly to work with other humans to design work for machines.
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That why perhaps the biggest shift in value is from cognitive to social skills. [Moi ici: Engraçado que cada vez mais dou comigo a pensar que um número crescente de artigos em revistas ditas de gestão ocupam o seu espaço com temas que a minha mãe, ou a catequese, ou o pertencer a uma associação, ou o pertencer a um grupo de colegas de rua me ensinaram e que parece que agora estão em falta] The high paying jobs today have less to do with the ability to retain facts or manipulate numbers (we now use a computer for those things), but require more deep collaboration, teamwork and emotional intelligence."

O quanto os gigantes gostariam que o factor humano fosse removido da equação... mas a imperfeição é cool, e a desautomatização está a crescer.

Acerca do eficientismo

Este blogue fala do eficientismo e da paranóia da eficiência há muitos anos (por exemplo, em 2012 e 2011).

"The Problem Management has come to be seen as a science whose purpose is to make commercial enterprises more efficient. But the single-minded pursuit of efficiency makes businesses less resilient. [Moi ici: Por um lado, recordar os nabateus e a sua lição, por outro recordar a fragilização decorrente de uma estratégia pura e, em paralelo, recordar que o negócio do preço não é para quem quer, mas para quem pode]

...
The Solution Business, government, and management education need to increase their emphasis on organizational resilience. This will involve limiting the size of businesses, introducing more friction into global trade and the capital markets, giving long-term investors a larger say in strategic decision making, creating jobs that are richer in learning opportunities, and offering educational programs that balance efficiency and resilience. [Moi ici: Não vai ser preciso fazer nada disto com intervencionismo ingénuo basta deixar que Mongo faça o seu trabalho com a variedade, a proximidade, a interacção e a co-criação]
...
Smith, Ricardo, Taylor, and Deming together turned management into a science whose objective function was the elimination of waste—whether of time, materials, or capital. The belief in the unalloyed virtue of efficiency has never dimmed. [Moi ici: Fui um crente a 100% na bondade da redução da variabilidade como estratégia para o sucesso, até que percebi que isso era uma visão redutora e só para quem pode, (Redsigma - O fim da linha) e quem pode é cada vez menos porque o mundo caminha para Mongo, o mundo da variedade]

A partir daqui divirjo da receita que Roger Martin prescreve. Em vez de intervencionismo, deixar Mongo fazer o seu caminho e não deixar que os estados apoiem os seus amigos-incumbentes.

Oh! BTW, lembrem-se da malta da Junqueira e da sua mania das grandezas.

Trechos retirados de "Rethinking Efficiency"

“Globalization is becoming regionalization, and regionalization is becoming intra-national,”

A propósito de "More Factories Crop Up Closer to Customers":

"The largest share of manufacturers in at least a decade is spending to expand facilities, as companies look to build plants closer to their customers to offset record-high trucking costs and seek out pockets of available workers in a tight labor market.
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Twelve percent of U.S. manufacturers that invested in added capacity at domestic factories in the second quarter did so through building expansions, according to the Census Bureau, the highest proportion in the decade that metric has been released. Manufacturing construction spending hit a 16-month high in September, according to the Census Bureau. Executives are making some of those investments in new factories to alleviate rising transport bills and supply-chain bottlenecks.
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as the company seeks to make its products as close to customers as possible to speed up delivery times and cut logistics costs.
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Companies building plants nearer to customers say the investment costs can be made up in faster turnaround times and increased orders.
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Some companies also are trying to source more parts locally to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on some foreign goods, said executives at Flex Ltd., which makes and ships products—including shoes and personal electronics— for other companies.
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“Globalization is becoming regionalization, and regionalization is becoming intra-national,” said Tom Linton, Flex’s supply-chain officer.""

A mim ninguém me tira a ideia de que Mongo tem um dedo importante nesta evolução: proximidade, rapidez, flexibilidade, interacção, co-criação

A abominação da eficiência - o anti-Mongo (parte II)

Parte II.

Qual a reacção ao eficientismo? O toque humano, a co-criação, a proximidade, a interacção, ...

Voltemos ao livro "Reinventing Organizations: An Illustrated Invitation to Join the Conversation on Next-Stage Organizations" e à continuação do tema da mega-enfermagem:

"Jos had been working as a nurse for ten years and experienced firsthand the changes forced onto his profession. Disgusted, he quit his job and created Buurtzorg. It would operate entirely differently. Quickly, he found that a self-organizing team of ten to twelve nurses with no manager and no team leader was perfect to provide great care—and a great work place.
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With a whole different perspective on health care Care, at its best, is a small miracle that happens, or not, in the relationship of a patient and a nurse. That miracle never shows up when a mechanical perspective is applied to care. The best care will happen, de Blok is convinced, when nurses are seen as professionals, when they are trusted. Give them freedom, and they will offer truly great care.

Patients and nurses love Buurtzorg so much that nurses have been deserting traditional nursing companies in droves. Every month, Buurtzorg receives hundreds of applications from nurses wanting to jump ship. Buurtzorg now employs more than nine thousand nurses, or two-thirds of all neighborhood nurses in the Netherlands! The nine thousand nurses all work in small teams of ten to twelve nurses, without a leader in the team and with no manager above them. No one times the nurses’ interventions with patients. The whole nine thousand-strong company is managed with a headquarters of just twenty-eight people."

E a cereja no topo do bolo:

Mandando a eficiência às malvas, têm-se melhores resultados com os clientes, com os trabalhadores e com menos custos para o pagador.

Por momentos lembrei-me de reunião com um grupo de empresários, em que quiseram que eu demonstrasse que um euro a mais no preço unitário era melhor que um euro a menos nos custos unitários: a receita para a loucura do eficientismo é o Evangelho do Valor.

Muito mais do que rapidez e proximidade

A propósito de, "In an age of super-fast fashion, Mexico and Turkey may be the new China", interessante que mais de dez anos depois as consultoras grandes chegaram à carta da proximidade. Recordar este postal de 2008, "Um mundo de oportunidades", acerca da importância da proximidade.

Qual o problema do artigo?

Selecciona uma variável, a proximidade, e mantém todas as outras constantes. Quem diz que a rapidez da concepção à prateleira vai ser a única variável a mudar? E, por exemplo, o tamanho médio das encomendas?