O fim de um ciclo

Quem segue este blogue sabe da minha relação profissional especial com o calçado.

Ontem, olhando para os dados do IEFP reparei que se fechou um ciclo.

Em Agosto de 2009 escrevi sobre o desemprego em Felgueiras: terra de vinho verde, kiwis, pão-de-ló e ... sapatos.

Em Outubro de 2010 a variação homóloga do número de desempregados no sector "Indústria do couro e dos produtos do couro" foi finalmente negativa: -0,1%. Os dados mais antigos a que consigo a aceder no IEFP são de Janeiro de 2003. Em Janeiro de 2003 a variação homóloga do número de desempregados no sector "Indústria do couro e dos produtos do couro" foi superior a 48%. Foram tempos tenebrosos, o choque do modelo da china europeia da altura, Portugal, com a verdadeira China. 

Pois bem, a série de evoluções homólogas negativas no sector "Indústria do couro e dos produtos do couro" acabou no mês passado. Sim, em Março de 2019 a variação homóloga do número de desempregados no sector "Indústria do couro e dos produtos do couro" foi novamente positiva: + 5%.

Viveremos um 2020 interessante com um jugo fiscal que faz de Gaspar um menino... sempre a cavar mais fundo o poço.

Curiosidade do dia

"Todo o mundo é feito de mudança, mas o que espanta é que não continue a mudar como mudava. Ter uma ideia em política só vale se tiver a capacidade para distinguir o possível do impossível perante a mudança das circunstâncias.
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Há quem esteja na política porque tem interesses a defender, servindo-se das ideias para ocultar as suas intenções efectivas. Esses não reconhecem as mudanças nem estão dispostos a aceitá-las quando a realidade efectiva das coisas as tornam evidentes. Se perdem o contrato que celebraram com os seus protectores, não sabem se voltarão a encontrar quem os sustente. Reforçam a expressão das suas convicções até as tornarem dogmas, dividem em vez de mobilizarem, iludem em lugar de orientarem. Refugiam-se no distributivismo do interior para evitarem a competição com o exterior, promovem os monopólios do Estado para não se sujeitarem à comparação da eficiência e eficácia em mercado competitivo."

Trecho retirado de "Interior e exterior"

Tão bom!!!

Great example of the power of expectations to shape perception: The visual system is so determined to see faces as convex, rather than concave, that it’s virtually impossible not to see the illusion – even when you know what’s going on. pic.twitter.com/ElguK5ErqI

— Steve Stewart-Williams (@SteveStuWill) April 20, 2019

"In real life, belief is an instrument to do things, not the end product. This is similar to vision: the purpose of your eyes is to orient you in the best possible way, and get you out of trouble when needed, or help you find a prey at distance. Your eyes are not sensors aimed at getting the electromagnetic spectrum of reality. Their job description is not to produce the most accurate scientific representation of reality; rather the most useful one for survival.
...
In that sense harboring superstitions is not irrational by any metric: nobody has managed to reinvent a metric for rationality based on process. Actions that harm you are observable.
...
Survival comes first, truth, understanding, and science later [Moi ici: Tão poderoso!!!]...
In other words, you do not need science to survive (we’ve done it for several hundred million years) , but you need to survive to do science. As your grandmother would have said, better safe than sorry.
...
bounded rationality: we cannot possibly measure and assess everything as if we were a computer; we therefore produce, under evolutionary pressures, some shortcuts and distortions. Our knowledge of the world is fundamentally incomplete, so we need to avoid getting in unanticipated trouble.
...
Judging people on their beliefs is not scientific
.
There is no such thing as “rationality” of a belief, there is rationality of action.
The rationality of an action can only be judged by evolutionary considerations...
The axiom of revelation of preferences states the following: you will not have an idea about what people really think, what predicts people’s actions, merely by asking them – they themselves don’t know. What matters, in the end, is what they pay for goods, not what they say they “think” about them, or what are the reasons they give you or themselves for that. (Think about it: revelation of preferences is skin in the game). Even psychologists get it; in their experiments, their procedures require that actual dollars be spent for the test to be “scientific”. The subjects are given a monetary amount, and they watch how he or she formulates choices by spending them. However, a large share of psychologists fughedabout the point when they start bloviating about rationality. They revert to judging beliefs rather than action.
...
Actually, by a mechanism (more technically called the bias-variance tradeoff), you often get better results making some type of “errors”, as when you aim slightly away from the target when shooting. I have shown in Antifragile that making some types of errors is the most rational thing to do, as, when the errors are of little costs, it leads to gains and discoveries.
This is why I have been against the State dictating to us what we “should” be doing: only evolution knows if the “wrong” thing is really wrong, provided there is skin in the game for that."...
Rationality is not what has conscious verbalistic explanatory factors; it is only what aids survival, avoids ruin.
.
Rationality is risk management, period."

Tão bom!!!

"How to be Rational about Rationality"

Mongo e a arte

A minha mãe estava a folhear o Jornal de Notícias e vi um título.
- Espera, deixa-me fotografar esse artigo.
- Não sabia que gostavas de motos!?
- Não são as motos, é a costumização...

Não são as motos, é Mongo!

"É uma forma de arte. [Moi ici: Arte e Mongo, uma conjugação que faço aqui há muitos anos] Transformar motos de série em peças únicas, que se distinguem pela sua singularidade e apostas arrojadas, num visual alternativo, é uma paixão que ganha adeptos em Portugal. Este sábado, algumas dezenas de entusiastas da customização dos veículos de duas rodas juntaram-se em Espinho.
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O mote para o encontro foi o 1º Motorcycle Design Contest, promovido pela "Backdoor Shop", onde diversas motos se perfilaram num desfile de originalidade."

Curiosidade do dia

É só juntar as peças:

• Défice das contas externas agrava-se para 1.181 milhões
• O jugo fiscal continua a espetar bandarilhas no lombo dos contribuintes líquidos
• Guerra dos spreads ao rubro: 5 bancos já baixaram margem mínima este ano
• BBVA desce previsão de crescimento do PIB português para 1,5% em 2019

Back to Outubro de 2015.

"Anticiparse, anticiparse, anticiparse"

O amigo Rui Moreira mandou-me o documento "Informe de la moda online en España 2017".

Nele leio:

"Anticiparse, anticiparse, anticiparse
...
La tecnología no deja de plantear desafíos en los que la clave es anticiparse.
.
¿He dicho anticiparse? Sí, tres veces, como si invocase un hechizo mágico. Anticiparse a los cambios sociales, culturales, económicos o de cualquier otro tipo es la forma en la que las empresas, en todos los sectores, logran sentar las bases de su competitividad futura, la manera en que logran perdurar en el tiempo.
...
las empresas de moda deben anticiparse a las nuevas formas de consumir que está trayendo consigo el desarrollo de Internet.
...
En los últimos tres años el peso del canal online se ha duplicado, como consecuencia de que el número de consumidores que compran alguna prenda por Internet cada año es hoy más del doble que en 2013."

O significado daquele "Anticiparse, anticiparse, anticiparse" revelou-se em toda a sua dimensão quando cheguei a esta página:

"España se encuentra claramente por detrás de otros países del entorno europeo en términos de cuota de mercado del comercio electrónico en el sector de la moda. Aspectos climáticos, culturales y empresariales influyen en esta realidad, en la que también resulta clave la menor tradición de venta por catálogo respecto a otros países. Entre los cinco mayores mercados europeos para la industria de la moda la delantera corresponde claramente a Alemania, un país que, antes de la popularización de Internet, ya contaba con una importante tradición en las ventas de moda a distancia.
En Reino Unido y Alemania, donde las ventas online tienen un peso mayor, la cuota ha seguido creciendo a ritmos de doble dígito en los últimos años, especial- mente en Reino Unido, donde la cuota de Internet en las ventas de moda ha subido 5,3 puntos porcentuales de 2013 a 2016, hasta el 23,9%"

Sendo os dados de 2016 procurei logo na internet se havia alguma versão mais recente:

As compras de moda estão a transferir-se do retalho físico para o retalho online, nuns países mais rapidamente que noutros. Como é que a sua empresa se está a preparar para esta transição? Vai esperar até quando?

Por exemplo:

Falta de profissionalismo, venezuelização, falta de liderança

Ontem em casa da minha mãe folheei o último número do Expresso e ao deparar com o título "Mortalidade infantil aumenta sem explicação" suspeitei logo de mais um episódio de esquizofrenia estatística, uma continuação de Janeiro último em "Mortalidade infantil e esquizofrenia".

Desta feita, com os dados da taxa de mortalidade infantil cheguei à mesma conclusão:

Estatisticamente não se pode dizer que 2018 foi pior que 2017, ou que 2010 foi melhor que 2012.
Daí que subscreva na íntegra:

"“Não se identificaram causas que justifiquem o aumento. [Moi ici: Em 2018] Não há uma relação causal,
...
O recorde absoluto foi batido em 2010, com uma taxa de 2,5. Também aqui não foi possível apurar explicações. “Estudámos tudo, como estudamos sempre, e não encontrámos uma causa”, admite a médica."

Procurar explicações para a variabilidade estatística normal é a base para a esquizofrenia analítica tola.

O que no artigo verdadeiramente me chamou a atenção foi este trecho:

"Outra das conclusões é a falta de informação e o excesso de mortes inconclusivas. O estudo revelou registos omissos, com regiões do país onde nem sequer se sabe qual foi o tipo de acompanhamento que a mulher teve durante a gravidez. Na verdade, ironiza a diretora-geral da Saúde, “a única causa que aumentou nos certificados de óbito foi a ‘causa desconhecida’, que não devia constar” e que leva as autoridades de saúde a pensar em “tornar obrigatórios alguns campos para que outros não fiquem por preencher”."

Interpreto-o como um sintoma de falta de profissionalismo, de venezuelização, de falta de liderança:

• É o profissional que não investiga e opta pelo mais fácil;
• É a chefia directa que não revê, que não controla, que não chama a atenção para a falta de informação;
• É toda uma cadeia de controlo da qualidade da recolha da informação que falha até chegar à directora-geral da Saúde.

Como é que se podem tomar decisões baseadas em factos se não temos factos?

Curiosidade do dia

Um almoço de Páscoa em casa da minha mãe permitiu sacar uma série de jornais que há muito deixei de ler.

Dois títulos interessantes e que estão certamente relacionados.

Dinheiro Vivo de 13 de Abril último - "Metade do PSI 20 tem antigos governantes na administração"

Dinheiro Vivo de 20 de Abril último - "PSI 20. Menos lucros mas o mesmo prémio aos accionistas" de onde sublinho um outro subtítulo - "Empresas portuguesas são as mais generosas nos dividendos"

Páscoa 2019

"Verdadeiramente este homem era Filho de Deus!"

"You see, but you do not observe"

Excelente texto, "To Change the Way You Think, Change the Way You See":

"Great creators, innovators, and entrepreneurs look at the world in ways that are different from how  many of us look at things. This is why they see opportunities that other people miss.

 ...

When we look at the world, we should not just examine, but examine with a deliberately different  perspective.
...
Sherlock Holmes famously said once to Watson: “You see, but you do not observe. The distinction is clear.”
...
Our brains are designed to stop us paying too much attention. This is well demonstrated by the optical illusion called Troxler fading (named after the nineteenth-century Swiss physician who discovered the effect). If presented with a steady image in the area of our peripheral vision, we actually stop seeing it after a while. This phenomenon — the general neuroscientific term is habituation — probably points to an efficient way in which the brain operates. Neurons stop firing once they have sufficient information about an unchanging stimulus. But this does not mean that habituating is always our friend.
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We can think of the effort not just to think differently, but also to see differently, as a way of countering our built-in tendency to habituate, to sink in to the familiar way of seeing and experiencing.
...
by seeing differently, we can end up seeing what no one else has yet seen. This is how the future is built."

In most organizations, #innovation isn’t hampered by a lack of ideas, but rather a lack of willingness to look at ideas with a different perspective.

Get away from:

“We’ve tried it before”
“That’s not how we do it”

And get going on the future state – what’s possible. #CEO pic.twitter.com/hdbAf3rFGK

— Tiffani Bova (@Tiffani_Bova) April 19, 2019

Sexta-feira Santa 2019

Prepare-se!

Estou a escrever estas linhas antes de sair para uma caminhada matinal arriscada, está a chover, onde vou ler um artigo que me enviaram ontem. A mensagem principal é: antecipe!

Antecipe a entrada no mundo digital, enquanto a sua sobrevivência é assegurada pelo retalho tradicional.

Nos últimas semanas já devo ter lido mais de 10 títulos onde a palavra recessão aparece. E isso já é um indicador avançado de algo. Quem me conhece sabe que vaticino um 2020 doloroso economicamente, sobretudo para quem vive do mercado interno.

2019 vai ser penoso para o PS, 2020 vai ser penoso para os portugueses https://t.co/LOvSUOMnAG

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) March 3, 2019

Fundamental a vitória do PS em 2019, para ter de lidar com recessão europeia e lixo debaixo do tapete em 2020 https://t.co/CZaCzetU81 já comprei as pipocas

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) October 7, 2018

Por isso, recomendo aos empresários das PMEs que leiam todos os artigos que possam encontrar sobre esta temática "How to Survive a Recession and Thrive Afterward".

Façam como as vacas, leiam e ruminem sobre a coisa. Ruminem para destilar o que será relevante para o caso de cada um. Alguns tópicos:

"during the recessions of 1980, 1990, and 2000, 17% of the 4,700 public companies they studied fared particularly badly: They went bankrupt, went private, or were acquired. But just as striking, 9% of the companies didn’t simply recover in the three years after a recession—they flourished, outperforming competitors by at least 10% in sales and profits growth. A more recent analysis by Bain using data from the Great Recession reinforced that finding. The top 10% of companies in Bain’s analysis saw their earnings climb steadily throughout the period and continue to rise afterward. A third study, by McKinsey, found similar results.
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The difference maker was preparation. Among the companies that stagnated in the aftermath of the Great Recession, “few made contingency plans or thought through alternative scenarios,” according to the Bain report. “When the downturn hit, they switched to survival mode, making deep cuts and reacting defensively.” Many of the companies that merely limp through a recession are slower to recover and never really catch up.
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Decentralized firms were better able to adjust to changing conditions.
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How should a company prepare in advance of a recession and what moves should it make when one hits? Research and case studies examining the Great Recession shed light on those questions. In some cases, they cement conventional wisdom; in others, they challenge it. Some of the most interesting findings deal with four areas: debt, decision making, workforce management, and digital transformation. The underlying message across all areas is that recessions are a high-pressure exercise in change management, and to navigate one successfully, a company needs to be flexible and ready to adjust."

Countering commoditization begins with ... (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

O quadrante "Core" é o ponto de partida para muitos dos desafios em que acompanho as PMEs. 

"Core This quadrant, low on both value-adding dimensions, is a starting point where the offer lacks sufficient differentiation to avoid becoming a commodity. Customers do not perceive compelling differences between the firm and its rivals in their value propositions. What is offered is not sufficiently adapted to the specific requirements of individual customers or their segments, nor does it have an added ‘bundled’ value besides the core product. Under this scenario the firm is obliged to look beyond its core for the missing differentiation that comes with added value."

As hipóteses são:

"Targeted Extension This quadrant represents a strategy that aims to add value by extending its core offer to more closely meet the special and possibly unique needs of the market segments or even the individual accounts it serves.
...
System Development Firms choosing to compete in this quadrant develop a package of products and services that offer the synergistic benefits of a ‘system’.
...
Solutions Innovation What happens when the firm’s offer consists of a full set of bundled products and services that are specifically targeted at certain customer segments or individual accounts?"

A figura que se segue ilustra com o exemplo da SKF:

 Interessante como o quadrante das Total solutions = Solutions Innovation é um exemplo perfeito da máxima "Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs". Não vendem rolamentos, vendem os resultados que os clientes procuram. Os rolamentos foram um instrumento inicial para o arranque da conversa.

Cuidado com esta gente à frente de empresas

Escrevo sobre o eficientismo há muitos anos:

• A crença louca na eficiência, quando se lida com gente - com links de 2012
• Cuidado com a eficiência - Dezembro de 2017
• Eficácia, eficiência, e produtividade - com links de 2008
• Para lá da eficiência - Junho de 2017

E sobretudo, "aposta noutro mindset", de Julho de 2015 de onde retiro:

Agora leiam:

• Why Anxious Customers Prefer Human Customer Service
• Unlocking the Creative Value of Inefficiency
• The Efficiency Delusion

Cuidado com esta gente à frente de empresas que não podem competir pelo preço...

Curiosidade do dia

"É esta capacidade para interiorizar o exterior que decide o lugar de Portugal no mundo e é a comparação com os resultados que os outros conseguem que denuncia a mistificação das políticas internas que rejeitam a moderação racional, função dos resultados, para impor a polarização emocional, função das identidades."

Trecho retirado de "Polarização e moderação"

Countering commoditization begins with ... (parte II)

Parte I.

O desafio da Parte I é um desafio que muitas vezes está na base dos meus projectos nas PME:

"So what are the strategies that could possibly counter the commoditization scenario cited above? To begin, there are no quick fixes to the pervasive power of commoditization. As a permanent feature of today’s marketplace, it will continue to challenge business organizations, even the best managed."

Os trechos que se seguem, retirados de "3 Countering Commoditization: Value-added Strategies and Aligning with Customers" de Kamran Kashani, encheram-me as medidas:

"Though there is no panacea, we can nevertheless identify three possible strategic trajectories that can bring much-needed differentiation to a commoditized core. These generic strategies are highlighted in the ‘value space’ of Figure 3.2 and are further explained below.

...
By moving to the right along the horizontal axis the firm is increasingly segmenting its current and potential customers and, in doing so, customizing its offers around the particular needs of those segments.
...
By moving up on the vertical axis, on the other hand, a firm is augmenting its value proposition beyond its core product, by ‘bundling’ related or even unrelated products and services into a single offer. In other words, there is more to the offer than the commoditized core product, thereby allowing greater differentiation.
...
examples of bundling include add-on services accompanying the core product such as financing, technical support and a general warranty for the total offer. The extra customer value that comes with bundling can be measured in the greater speed and convenience of working with a single supplier, a lower transaction cost and a more complete quality assurance for the augmented offer.
The two value-adding dimensions described above lead to four possible combinations identified in Figure 3.2 as the Core and three value-adding strategies: Targeted Extension, System Development and Solutions Innovation."

 

Nem quando a maré sobe ela sobe para todos

No mesmo dia, com minutos de diferença, o Twitter apresenta-me:

• Órbita perde pedal em Lisboa e cai num buraco negro
• 100 Million Extra E-Bike Purchases By 2030, Graphs NGO Using 2018's Stellar EU Sales Figures

Às vezes nem quando a maré sobe ela sobe para todos.

speed = value

Às vezes estou a ler um texto e não consigo deixar de exclamar:

- DUH!

Desta vez foi com "Fashion Needs a New Business Model. Speed is the Answer":

"call out the conventional supply chain model as “dead.” The same report downgraded Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger parent PVH for the first time in eight years. Although Calvin Klein sales increased by $876 million since 2013, profit declined over that period by $20 million. PVH’s inventory turns hit all-time lows, while total inventory hit all-time highs. Sales growth based on higher inventory risk, the analysts argued, is no longer acceptable.
...
As an alternative, they offered a new thesis: speed = value. Cowen demonstrates that even modest change in speed equates to gross margin improvement, a model which can be projected across the sector and to clothing and accessories.
...
Supply chains must move faster if they are to be more responsive to accelerating changes in demand. More important than cutting weeks of time out of the design-to-delivery calendar is building a link between retail supply flexibility and market value. Citing work by Warren H. Hausman of Stanford University, the critical metric is capital based on process innovation that reduces finished goods’ lead times from months to weeks.
The source of being fast is supply flexibility in the first mile of the supply chain, in contrast to last mile logistics. This means upstream management to delay – or postpone -- finished goods commitments. The impact of this strategy is to reduce or remove fashion uncertainty and exploit much shorter working capital cycles.
...
Speed, in summary, is not an operational challenge in sourcing alone. It is a firm-wide cultural commitment to speed decision-making, to be responsive to trends and to synchronise and share value across partners."

Recordo:

• Janeiro de 2007 - Flexigurança, fiscalidade e competitividade 
• Dezembro de 2009 - Aproveitar as nossas armas
• Fevereiro de 2012 - Cadeias de fornecimento mais curtas
• Março de 2012 - Hora da batota?

Preço e contexto no dia-a-dia

Li o título, "Senhorios sobem rendas para trabalho sexual de prostitutas", e sorri ao reconhecer o contextual pricing, ao pensar na evolução do value-in-exchange para o value-in-use, ao pensar que o preço não é baseado no custo, mas no valor co-criado pelo cliente.

"value is always co-created in markets because value is phenomenologically derived and determined by a service beneficiary (e.g., customer) through the use of a market offering. This view on value differs from traditional economic measures of value. In particular, Vargo et al. (2008) discuss two measures of value that have been deliberated since the time of Aristotle – value-in-exchange and value-in-use. Whereas value-in-exchange represents the nominal amount for which something can be exchanged, value-in-use represents the value derived through integration and use, or application, of an available resource. Vargo et al. (2008) point toward the need for conceptualizing “value-in-context,” which they propose as an extension of value-in-use because it centers on value derived through use, but influenced by a particular context (e.g., time, place and social setting). In this way, value is always contextual because it is based on a phenomenological perspective and influenced by time, place and social surroundings, as well as other environmental factors, including access to other internal and external resources."

Trecho lido em mais uma caminhada matinal em "The context of experience", Journal of Service Management, Vol. 26 Iss 2 de Melissa Archpru Akaka, Stephen L Vargo e Hope Jensen Schau.

Countering commoditization begins with ...

"Figure 3.1 shows a typical scenario of how the combined effects of commod- itization and buyer concentration, common in many industrial sectors, can over time lead to margin erosion. It begins with a steady decline in the differentiation of the core offer. In other words, the firm’s customer-value proposition begins to lose its uniqueness and, with it, most or all of its differentiating power. Customers view all competing products alike and dismiss any vendor claims to the contrary. When combined with buyer concentration, i.e. when a growing share of sales is generated from a declining number of large customers, the consequences of commoditization can be dramatic: a loss of control on prices (when the seller is no longer a price setter but a price taker), in addition to losses in supplier identity, customer loyalty and brand equity. The scenario’s negative impact on margins and profitability is all too predictable.
.
Countering commoditization begins with a re-examining of the core business and its customer-value proposition. When all customers appear to look alike and the firm’s value offer has a one-size-fits-all quality to it (both features of many commoditized markets), it is time to ask a couple of fundamental questions: beyond the lowest price, what do the customers really value and how could the commoditized offer, product or service, be redefined to better reflect the often unarticulated needs of its customers?"

Trechos retirados de "3 Countering Commoditization: Value-added Strategies and Aligning with Customers" de Kamran Kashani

"The ever-changing store" (parte II)

"The vast majority of leaders I meet believe that their job is to ensure perfect execution. Mistakes are verboten. Failure is unacceptable. And so we use our considerable experience (and energy) to run our teams like well-oiled machines. There’s only one problem: they are not machines. They are complex, adaptive systems—human systems—in an age of rapid change. By focusing on execution, we limit the potential for growth in the system. By making ourselves indispensable, we make our teams and organizations less resilient. In complexity, our job isn’t perfection, it’s building a culture that is always learning. And that requires letting go. Of course, clients often respond that they can’t trust their teams to make decisions and take action. I remind them that one of two things is true: either they’re wrong and their teams are capable of far more than they realize, or they’re right and they need to make an immediate change. What is not okay is to linger in a state of distrust and second-guessing."

Em linha completa com a Parte I.

Acrescentar também "Unleashing the power of small, independent teams"

Trecho retirado de “Brave New Work” de Aaron Dignan.

"The ever-changing store"

Este artigo, "The ever-changing store: Taking an agile, customer-centric approach to format redesign", é muito mais do que um artigo sobre a evolução do retalho. É também um artigo sobre Mongo, um artigo sobre como organizações habituadas a uma sede central que tudo decide não estão preparadas para um mundo que requer tentativa e erro, um mundo que requer "think beta, not best".

"many retailers still only refresh their store formats in three- to five-year cycles. That’s an eternity in today’s world, where consumer demands and behavior are changing rapidly. Furthermore, traditional format redesign is a costly, multiyear effort that involves overhauling several departments or even the entire store. It carries significant risk, because retailers have no guarantee that the redesign, once it’s complete, will generate the desired results. It could turn out to be a tremendous waste of time and money."

A falta de fogo no rabo

"Wthout focus a company cannot achieve an execution culture. As mentioned previously, unfocused companies pursue too many objectives and have too many initiative. During the workshops conducted with senior managers, I asked them to list their company's top three objectives. There was never unanimous agreement. If top management is not dear about the initiatives on which to focus the company's efforts, then staff will never know where to invest their time. ... the greater the number of strategic objectives and priorities, the more unfocused are the employee. Alternatively, the more focused is top management, the clearer employees and departments are about what they need to do on a daily basis. When priorities cascade down the organization, the result is often a distorted focus — and frequently a significant distortion.
...
Another significant consequence is that lack of focus leads to lack of discipline in executing organizational objective. Focus imposes discipline because staff at any level know what to do at any point.
...
A final sign related to lack of focus and execution culture is when companies brainstorm the same ideas again and again."

Um dos temas que há muitos anos me apoquenta, ao lidar com as iniciativas estratégicas... a falta de foco, a falta de fogo no rabo, iniciativas que se arrastam no tempo, iniciativas que não têm qualquer prioridade sobre a gestão corrente do dia-a-dia:

• Fogo no rabo (Dezembro de 2016)
• Schwerpunkt (Janeiro de 2008)

Trechos retirados de "The Focused Organization: How Concentrating on a Few Key Initiatives Can Dramatically Improve Strategy Execution". 

"In complexity, our job isn’t perfection, it’s building a culture that is always learning"

“The vast majority of leaders I meet believe that their job is to ensure perfect execution. Mistakes are verboten. Failure is unacceptable. And so we use our considerable experience (and energy) to run our teams like well-oiled machines. There’s only one problem: they are not machines. They are complex, adaptive systems—human systems—in an age of rapid change. By focusing on execution, we limit the potential for growth in the system. By focusing on execution, we limit the potential for growth in the system. By making ourselves indispensable, we make our teams and organizations less resilient. In complexity, our job isn’t perfection, it’s building a culture that is always learning. And that requires letting go. Of course, clients often respond that they can’t trust their teams to make decisions and take action. I remind them that one of two things is true: either they’re wrong and their teams are capable of far more than they realize, or they’re right and they need to make an immediate change. What is not okay is to linger in a state of distrust and second-guessing."

Trechos retirados de “Brave New Work” de Aaron Dignan.

O que dizem e o que fazem

O amigo @pauloperes mandou-me este artigo "Why did Shoes of Prey fail? Because it listened to customers":

"Shoe retailer Shoes of Prey toppled over like Bambi in heels last week. And no wonder, because according to chief executive officer Michael Fox, the founders trusted what their customers told them.
.
In outlining the reasons Shoes of Prey failed, Fox pointed to a yawning gap between customer intent and actual behaviour: “While our mass market customer told us they wanted to customise …what they were consciously telling us and what they subconsciously wanted … were effectively polar opposites.”"

O artigo fez-me recordar vários postais ao longo dos anos sobre o tema:

• You can’t ask customers what they want (Junho de 2016)
• Acerca da medição da satisfação dos clientes e A merecer reflexão (Outubro de 2016) 
• "Many companies fall into the trap of asking consumers" (Dezembro de 2016)
• "don't put their money where their mouth is" (Fevereiro de 2017)

"Poorly executed strategy"

"the fundamental difference between success and failure depends on which projects top management decides to invest in and how those projects are executed.
.
In other words, finding ways to achieve the strategic goals is what today is known as 'strategic planning,' while 'strategy execution' is the method used to achieve those goals. The three most important elements of successful strategy execution are:

• Identifying the company's core competencies that will differentiate it from the competition.

• Selecting and prioritizing the initiatives that will exploit those core competencies and create sustainable growth via the company's strategic plan.

• Organizing company resources so as to optimally execute the chosen strategy. 

...
Once a company's structure and resources are aligned to its chosen strategy, the key question is whether the organization is focused enough to deliver the intended result. If the answer is no chances are that the strategy will not be successfully executed. This will be discussed later, but successful strategy execution is not so much about how well the strategy is defined; instead, success depends on project selection, effective organizational alignment, relentless execution and focus.
...
Being unfocused means that strategy objectives have not been clearly articulated or communicated to the entire organization. Often, there are too many objectives or even worse, the objectives are not prioritized. Top management wants to do too many things and does not involve employees in the strategy formulation. Thus, employees neither understand nor buy into the long-term mission.
...
If the strategy is poorly executed, the financial objectives will be difficult to achieve. Unfocused companies typically generate significant costs over the years. They often run too many projects, not recognizing that projects are expensive and consume both financial and staff resources. In addition, they frequently lack a clear, transparent and objective project selection process (or investment committee). Investment decisions are made on partial information and the tendency is to start all projects whose business case 'looks good on paper."

Trechos retirados de "The Focused Organization: How Concentrating on a Few Key Initiatives Can Dramatically Improve Strategy Execution".

Curiosidade do dia

Muitas vezes recuo a 2007 e a este título “Nós não estudámos até ao fim todas as consequências das medidas que sugerimos”

Recomendo a leitura de "O mal de Mao":

"Lembro-me frequentemente desta história pela sua eloquência na ilustração de como decisões, quiçá bem-intencionadas, podem produzir efeitos devastadores e até contrários ao propósito que as motivam, quando não se estudam bem os problemas e todas as relações envolvidas, quando não se consideram todos os efeitos directos e indirectos. E espero que quem está encarregado de pensar políticas públicas não a ignore."

Markeplaces (parte II)

Parte I.

"“Todo o nosso investimento, nos próximos dois anos, vai centrar-se no digital. Este é um setor muito dinâmico, onde têm aparecido imensas marcas novas que, graças aos marketplaces ou às redes sociais, facilmente se dão a conhecer ao mundo”
...
“Os mercados onde somos mais fortes são aqueles que fizemos há 20 anos, pelos meios tradicionais, e onde contamos com clientes fiéis. Mas queremos dar-nos a conhecer a outros mercados pela via digital, o que obriga a investir milhões para se aparecer nos motores de busca. As grandes plataformas globais é que o conseguem”, explica.
...
Internacionalizar a marca com lojas fora de Portugal não está no horizonte. “Aprendemos que a gestão de lojas fora de Portugal é muito complicado, a não ser que se tenha um parceiro local”, diz Luís Figueiredo, que pretende, sim, reforçar o investimento na participação em feiras fora da Europa."

Trechos retirados de "Laranjinha prepara entrada na Amazon a partir de 2020"

As iniciativas estratégicas que não são estratégicas...

Actualmente ando a ler vários livros em simultâneo, qual deles o melhor. Um desses livre é "The Focused Organization: How Concentrating on a Few Key Initiatives Can Dramatically Improve Strategy Execution".

Recentemente num projecto BSC, para subir na escala de valor, optou-se por desenvolver a relação com o cliente do cliente, algo deste tipo:

Desenhou-se o mapa da estratégia, fez a S-CRT e desenvolveram-se quatro iniciativas estratégicas. No entanto, todas as quatro iniciativas estratégicas tinham a ver com a melhoria do negócio existente:

• Melhoria de competências em funções críticas;
• Simplificação de processos críticos;
• Melhoria do planeamento;
• Melhoria da comunicação interdepartamental.

Antonio Nieto-Rodriguez escreve:

"I have developed a matrix that illustrates this situation (Figure 4.2). The x-axis refers to the dimension of the business, either run-the-business or change-the-business. The y-axis represents both the front/core activities of the business and the support activities. For simplicity, I assume that most of the strategic growth projects are launched by the front side of the business — which is not too far from reality if we consider that research and development (R&D), business development, marketing and corporate are the departments that launch most of these growth initiatives — while the functions are more involved in cost-reduction projects (including performance improvement and system automation). Management has to make sure that the distribution of its resources is totally aligned and reflects the strategic objectives, in which case the chances are high that the strategy will be successful."

Interessante que todos as quatro iniciativas da empresa caem no quadrante inferior esquerdo... ou seja, as iniciativas estratégicas ainda que relevantes não são verdadeiramente estratégicas uma vez que são apenas "run-the-business".

São necessárias? Quase de certeza que sim, mas não criam o negócio de amanhã. E como os recursos são escassos, a começar pelo tempo... talvez a realidade seja:

No, you can't always get what you want
You can't always get what you want
You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometime you find
You get what you need

Marketplaces

Quem tem mais a perder com a fuga de informação e o seu uso indevido, a Amazon ou a AT? E isto ainda está para implementação.

A propósito de "Selling with the enemy: Why rival retailers embrace Amazon.com". Vender no canal digital não se resume a montar uma loja online e começar a vender...

• por que é que alguém há-de chegar a essa loja online?
• por que é que alguém há-de arriscar dar o seu cartão de crédito a desconhecidos?

As marcas vendiam através de lojas físicas que não lhes pertenciam. Agora, as marcas também podem, e se calhar devem, vender através de lojas online (marketplaces) que não lhes pertencem. Esses marketplaces têm a obrigação de ser geridos por especialistas, por profissionais. Esses marketplaces têm asseguradas muito mais visitas e têm assegurada muito mais confiança na partilha dos dados de pagamento e garantias de serviço após-venda.

Quanto aos receios de cópia da Amazon e acesso à informação, penso nesta frase:

"And thus we close with a paradox: In the future, brand will no longer matter — except when it does. If a product’s story is compelling enough to truly differentiate, then that story will continue to resonate. If it doesn’t, it won’t."

Se as marcas não se diferenciarem, se não fizerem o seu trabalho de interacção com os seus clientes, com a sua tribo, acabarão terraplenadas pela Amazon ou por outras marcas.

Privilegiar os inputs sobre os outputs (parte XIII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X, parte XI e parte XII. 

"for many of today’s industrial vendors the ability to create value is less than matched by the power to capture it, because in commoditized markets the customer is the driver in an unbalanced distribution of bargaining power. The consequences for suppliers can be serious: declining prices and margins, inferior returns on investment, and the risk of falling into a ‘commodity trap’ where the pressure on profitability leads to reduced investment in product (or service) innovation, which in turn leads to further loss of differentiation and even greater pressure on prices and margins. Few marketers can escape this vicious cycle with their shirts on.
.
Can industrial companies counter commoditization and avoid falling victim to their ever more powerful, hard-bargaining customers?.
The answer for a growing number of companies is an affirmative one. These firms have learned that while core product advantages erode and pressure on prices never lets up, they can still do profitable business by pursuing value-added strategies including aligning themselves with key customers. Put differently, these companies have discovered profitable opportunities in stretching beyond their core products by offering customers compellingly differentiated values. They have thus successfully countered commoditization.
...
Consider the following examples.

• SKF, the world’s largest ball-bearing manufacturer, ... to maintain their production machinery, reduce or eliminate downtime and maximize plant yield.

• ...

• Raisio Chemicals, a major supplier of chemical compounds ... developing new products, upgrading paper quality and improving printability. The company offers its important customers access to its technical staff and facilities, including a unique pilot coating machine and a newly built printing plant, for testing and experimentation."

Dois exemplos da concentração nos inputs e não nos outputs.

Trechos retirados de "3 Countering Commoditization: Value-added Strategies and Aligning with Customers" de Kamran Kashani

Só a fuga ao eficientismo os pode salvar

"In 1997 and 1998, olive oil was the most adulterated agricultural product in the European Union, prompting the E.U.’s anti-fraud office to establish an olive-oil task force. (“Profits were comparable to cocaine trafficking, with none of the risks,” one investigator told me.) The E.U. also began phasing out subsidies for olive-oil producers and bottlers, in an effort to reduce crime, and after a few years it disbanded the task force. Yet fraud remains a major international problem: olive oil is far more valuable than most other vegetable oils, but it is costly and time-consuming to produce—and surprisingly easy to doctor. Adulteration is especially common in Italy, the world’s leading importer, consumer, and exporter of olive oil. (For the past ten years, Spain has produced more oil than Italy, but much of it is shipped to Italy for packaging and is sold, legally, as Italian oil.) “The vast majority of frauds uncovered in the food-and-beverage sector involve this product,” Colonel Leopoldo Maria De Filippi, the commander for the northern half of Italy of the N.A.S. Carabinieri, an anti-adulteration group run under the auspices of the Ministry of Health, told me.
.
In Puglia, which produces about forty per cent of Italy’s olives, growers have been in a near-constant state of crisis for more than a decade. “Thousands of olive-oil producers are victims of this ‘drugged’ market,” Antonio Barile, the president of the Puglia chapter of a major farmers’ union, told me, referring to illegal importations of seed oils and cheap olive oil from outside the E.U., which undercut local farmers. Instead of supporting small growers who make distinctive, premium oils, the Italian government has consistently encouraged quantity over quality, to the benefit of large companies that sell bulk oil. It has not implemented a national plan for oil production, has employed a byzantine system for distributing agricultural subsidies, and has often failed to enforce Italian laws and E.U. regulations intended to prevent fraud. The government has been so lax in pursuing some oil crimes that it can seem complicit. In 2000, the European Court of Auditors reported that Italy was responsible for eighty-seven per cent of misappropriated E.U. subsidies to olive-oil bottlers in the preceding fifteen years, and that the government had recovered only a fraction of the money."

Criar uma bitola privada de qualidade, autenticidade e origem do azeite.
Criar mecanismo de certificação privada.
Criar mecanismo de punição violenta.
Meter gente com skin-in-the-game a operar a coisa, ou a coisa mantém-se.
Criar marcas locais e cooperativa de marketing, engarrafamento e logística.

Só a subida na escala de valor, só a fuga ao eficientismo os pode salvar.

Trecho retirado de "Slippery Business"

"Conluiarem-se com os governos para criarem barreiras à entrada"

Em "Salário mínimo - what else?" (Setembro de 2017) escrevi:

"Quando um mercado está comoditizado, quando há um excesso de oferta face à procura, qual é a primeira regra que os incumbentes poderosos seguem?
.
Conluiarem-se com os governos para criarem barreiras à entrada ou à permanência dos concorrentes mais pequenos. Em vez de comprarem esses concorrentes, em vez de subirem na escala de valor, em vez de melhorarem face a esses concorrentes, em vez de seduzirem melhor os clientes..."

Ontem apanhei isto no Twitter:

Para reflexão

"As the world becomes increasingly price-competitive, successful companies will need to become ever more vigilant in targeting markets for profitability, not just volume growth.
...
When working with the client, keep it simple. He said, “Don’t waste too much time overcomplicating the topic of customer value. Just ask the cli- ent this: ‘Do you know how much it costs your customers not to be doing business with you’?”

Trechos retirados de "Integrating Marketing and Operational Choices for Profit Growth" de Thomas Nagle e Lisa Thompson.

"We’re starting from a position of trust"

Num projecto BSC terminado recentemente uma das iniciativas estratégicas identificadas foi: Simplificar processos.

Agora encontro:

“When you join a Legacy Organization, the default assumption is that you don’t have the right to do anything unless you are given permission. This stems from a theory of control that believes the best way to eliminate risk is through compliance. It all starts innocently enough. In the early days, everyone scrambles to get the business off the ground. If they succeed, the established enterprise attempts to protect itself by standardizing approaches, policies, and structures—it discovers and mandates the one best way. Over time, red tape builds up until hardly anything interesting can be done without three different approvals. Only very senior managers and people willing to lose their jobs are able to act freely. The rest of the workforce, unauthorized to solve their own problems, develops a sense of apathy and learned helplessness. Engagement dips. Mistakes are made. And more red tape is wrapped around the handle. Stories of mistakes and failures create a culture of fear. The sense at the bottom is that leadership doesn’t trust anyone. The sense at the top is that even more compliance is needed—that everything must be specified.
...
Evolutionary Organizations ensure that everyone has the freedom and autonomy to serve the organization’s purpose. The default assumption here is that you can do anything, unless a specific policy or agreement prohibits it. We’re starting from a position of trust. Rather than centralizing power in a few senior positions, we aim to distribute authority as much as possible to teams and individuals at the edge, where the action and the information are. Teams take full responsibility for their work and their way of working. If something is causing tension or stopping them from achieving their purpose, they can attempt to change it, whether it’s a line of code or a massive equipment purchase.
...
How many people in how many roles lack the authority they need to do their jobs well? In a dynamic and fast-changing world, preventing people from using judgment and making decisions is just too slow. A client recently told me the story of an initiative that required sixteen individual sign-offs before proceeding. This is our addiction to control masquerading as “risk management.” What firms like this fail to recognize is that the true risk they face is that bureaucratic immobilization will make them irrelevant.”

Trechos retirados de “Brave New Work” de Aaron Dignan.

Não pode aspirar

Conseguem recordar aqueles empresários sempre com o credo na boca a pedir mais um apoio, mais uma barreira à concorrência, mais um ajuste directo, para evitar a bancarrota?

Conseguem recordar os políticos adeptos do cronyismo sempre prontos para uma ajuda pedo-mafiosa a empresas em dificuldades?

Comparem com a realidade dos números:

""Amazon will go bankrupt," he continued. If you look at large companies, their lifespans tend to be 30-plus years, not a hundred-plus years."
...
The average US public company is dying younger than ever, around age 30,
...
Another startling statistic: Reeves says 32% of companies won't exist 5 years from now, whether they're acquired or they flat-out fail."

Já agora recordar outros números de 2008:

 E

"Remember that 96% of all business start-ups in the US fail within 10 years"

Uma sociedade que deseja e valoriza o apoio extra-mercado a entidades que operam no mercado não pode aspirar a tirar o maior partido das vantagens do mercado.

"Deciding where to focus companies' scarce resources"

"most companies have very similar strategies and business objectives (e.g.,  growth, expansion, product innovation, market leadership) but just a few succeed in achieving them. What do these successful companies do differently?
...
Up to the late 1970s, an organization's main focus was on core activities reflected in the traditional value chain described by Michael Porter
...
Deciding where to focus companies' scarce resources is one of top management's most important challenges.
...
Improving operations is easier than improving projects. Often, operational processes can be mapped, analysed and finally improved by automating or simply removing the inefficient parts. This is not possible with projects: mapping them is very complex, and they are very difficult to improve m most of the time they are one-off.
...
although very few companies succeed in implementing their strategies, there are a few whose strategy execution is successful.
...
To my surprise, some of these successful organizations were not just reaching but were also exceeding their strategic objectives. While their formula included great leadership and maturity, what made all the difference in their ability to exceed their expectations was the fact that they were highly FOCUSED.
.
What I realized is that in todays world most companies and many employees are highly unfocused. As a result, top management has difficulty setting a dear strategy and communicating a ranked list of priorities; and most staff members end up deciding on their own where to concentrate their efforts; most likely on easy and irrelevant task, This lack of focus results in much wasted money and resources, the inability to execute the strategy, project failures, and unhappy and uncommitted employees. Successful individuals are highly focused, and the same applies lo organizations. In fact, every business is focused when it is just starting up but only those companies that manage to stay focused will likely succeed and remain in business."

Trechos retirados de "The Focused Organization - How Concentrating on a Few Key Initiatives Can Dramatically Improve Strategy Execution" de Antonio Nieto-Rodriguez

O meu radar

• Tem radar? (parte II) (Maio de 2017)
• Cuidado com a absolutização do que a nossa empresa produz (Março de 2017)
• No caminho da "magia" (Março de 2015)
• Conseguem imaginar os job-to-be-done? (Fevereiro de 2015)
• O tempo é a variável mais escassa que temos (Junho de 2011)

E agora "The first dexterous and sentient hand prosthesis has been successfully implanted"... como não relacionar com "It’s Ecosystems, Not Inventions That Truly Change the World" e sentir no ar um cheiro a "instantaneous phase transition".

Análise do contexto no calçado

"Há "uma fusão de várias tempestades perfeitas" no ar, a abalar a indústria do calçado à escala global e, também em Portugal.
...
No diagnóstico do quadro atual, a afetar Portugal, mas também os outros países produtores, pesam fatores vários, das alterações climáticas, à retração do consumo na Europa ou ao "novo comportamento dos clientes", com as vendas online e diretas ao consumidor a trazerem alterações de peso à cadeia de retalho e ao modelo habitual de negócio. E é ainda preciso considerar a viragem nas tendências de moda para o calçado desportivo, quando a indústria nacional ganhou fama internacional nos modelos mais clássicos.
...
as mudanças em curso no padrão do retalho, por força do mundo digital, tenderão a acentuar-se com a chegada dos consumidores mais jovens ao mercado, alerta.
.
Na resposta, as empresas têm de ajustar-se e tornar-se cada vez mais ágeis. "Esta realidade não é surpresa para ninguém na cadeia de retalho e o sector do calçado está a dar grandes passos para que, num futuro muito próximo, a maioria dos sapatos sejam adquiridos online", diz o presidente da FDRA.
...
Flexibilidade e tiragens limitadas, podem ajudar as empresas a responder à nova conjuntura de consumo.
...
Quanto aos sapatos a fazer, o presidente da FDRA não tem dúvidas de que independentemente do estilo, cor ou forma, "terão sempre de ser confortáveis"."

Trechos retirados de "Calçado. Uma indústria debaixo de “várias tempestades perfeitas”"

To break through marketing clutter

"To break through marketing clutter, companies need to understand customer processes and the processes of their customer’s customer.
...
Value chain marketing requires marketers to develop an enhanced understanding of their industry, including activity at successive steps throughout the value chain, and to apply marketing tools to maximize effectiveness of the marketing programme up and down the value chain. New analytic tools to understand the industry must be deployed, and new tools to maximize marketing effectiveness must be developed. Value chain marketing challenges marketers to step into a broader framework where the dividing line between business strategy and market development is sometimes blurred.
...
The basic building block for understanding any industry is the macro business system. It includes all industry participants, connected in a successive chain of value added, from raw material production to OEM customers, wholesalers, retailers, retail customers and in some cases recycling. As in macroeconomics, where macro denotes the behaviour of the economy as a whole, the term ‘macro business system’ applies to an entire industry and all players upstream and downstream from a given competitor.
...
No industry business system is likely to resemble another.
...
Upstream component and material suppliers
...
Downstream manufacturers and processors
...
Secondary users or OEMs
...
Wholesalers
...
Retailers
...
Consumers and end users
...
Recyclers"

Trechos retirados de "Value Chain Marketing" de Jean-Pierre Jeannet

"Thinking about the future"

"If somebody tells you they can predict the future, don't believe them. Nobody can predict large socio-technical transformations and what exactly these are going to look like.
...
So, if no one can predict the future, why think about it? Because doing so helps you to inoculate yourself. In the medical field, inoculating yourself prevents you from falling ill. In futures thinking, if you've considered a whole range of possibilities, you're kind of inoculating yourself. If one of these possibilities comes about, you're better prepared.
...
Thinking about the future is also about imagining. It's about transforming how we think. It's about creating a map to the future and looking for the big areas of opportunity. We like to think about transformations, for example, in learning and work, and how they get connected and intertwined in various ways. And then we start thinking about zones of opportunity. How can we shape the future to make it more equitable? How can we amplify learning outcomes? What do we need to do to achieve these outcomes?
.
The future doesn't just happen to us. We have agency in imagining and creating the kind of future we want to live in, and we can take actions to get us there.
...
I said earlier that there is no data about the future; the only data we have is about the past. While we cannot fully rely on past data to help us see the future, there are larger patterns in history that we tend to repeat over and over again. Thus, we need to look back to see forward.
...
At its best, futures thinking is not about predicting the future; rather, it is about engaging people in thinking deeply about complex issues, imagining new possibilities, connecting signals into larger patterns, connecting the past with the present and the future, and making better choices today. Futures thinking skills are essential for everyone to learn in order to better navigate their own lives and to make better decisions in the face of so many transformations in our basic technologies and organizational structures. The more you practice futures thinking, the better you get. The five principles outlined above—not focusing on predictions, uncovering signals, understanding historical trajectories, weaving together larger patterns, and bringing diverse voices into the conversation—should help you on your journey of making futures thinking a way of life for you and your community."

Trechos retirados "Five Principles for Thinking Like a Futurist"

"Why Hypotheses Beat Goals"

"companies should focus organizational energy on hypothesis generation and testing. Hypotheses force individuals to articulate in advance why they believe a given course of action will succeed. A failure then exposes an incorrect hypothesis — which can more reliably convert into organizational learning.
...
A hypothesis emerges from a set of underlying assumptions. It is an articulation of how those assumptions are expected to play out in a given context. In short, a hypothesis is an intelligent, articulated guess that is the basis for taking action and assessing outcomes.
...
Hypothesis generation in companies becomes powerful if people are forced to articulate and justify their assumptions. It makes the path from hypothesis to expected outcomes clear enough that, should the anticipated outcomes fail to materialize, people will agree that the hypothesis was faulty.
.
Building a culture of effective hypothesizing can lead to more thoughtful actions and a better understanding of outcomes. Not only will failures be more likely to lead to future successes, but successes will foster future successes."

Aposto que o meu colega das conversas oxigenadoras vai apreciar a técnica usada pela cadeia de lojas japonesas Seven-Eleven Japan:

"Each week, Seven-Eleven Japan counselors visited the stores and asked salesclerks three questions:

• What did you hypothesize this week? (That is, what did you order?)

• How did you do? (That is, did you sell what you ordered?)

• How will you do better next week? (That is, how will you incorporate the learning?)

By repeatedly asking these questions and checking the data for results, counselors helped people throughout the company hypothesize, test, and learn. The result was consistently strong inventory turnover and profitability."

Trechos retirados de "Why Hypotheses Beat Goals"

"Customers expect your attention to be on them"

Um excelente texto que recomendo para reflexão, sobretudo para os adeptos de Dick Dastardly, "The New Retail: Sell to Me in a Me2B World":

"Jeff Bezos said, “If we can keep our competitors focused on us while we stay focused on the customer, ultimately we´ll turn out all right.”
.
Many retailers today seem to do exactly this and try to compete with Amazon.com. It's not rare that I have conversations with retailers about implementing strategies to compete with, or even leapfrog, Amazon. I usually provocatively ask the question, “which part of Amazon would you aim to overtake?”
.
Focusing on competing with Amazon isn't a winning strategy. Retailers, instead, need to laser-focus on their customers and not primarily on the competition.
...
Consumers say, “Treat me like a person, not as a sales opportunity. Don´t just sell products. Sell to me!” [Moi ici: Pensar nos inputs do cliente e não nos outputs]
...
Consumers are willing to pay more for positive experiences. Making individual consumers happy will be the ultimate driver for loyalty and differentiation. However, companies must first be able to see their own business through the eyes of the customer,
...
How you sell what you sell is important! Customers expect your attention to be on them, not your competitors. It's all about more empathy, more fun and less friction, which results in happy customers for life."

Acerca da data de chegada

"Time is one of the major characteristics of projects in that, unless there is an articulated compelling, official and public announced deadline, there is a good chance that the project will be delivered later than originally planned. Delays in project mean, besides extra costs, a loss of benefits and expected revenues, both having a tremendous negative impact on the business case of the initiative. A project without a deadline should not be considered a project - better call it an experiment, an exploration or daily business activities."

Trecho retirado de "The Project Revolution" de Antonio Nieto-Rodriguez