Não se deixem surpreender

Não se deixem surpreender:

No FT de ontem um artigo interessante na coluna "FT BIG READ" intitulado "A broken business model?" acerca da situação da economia alemã:

• Dependência energética: O sucesso industrial da Alemanha tem dependido fortemente do gás russo barato. As tensões geopolíticas e a subsequente redução do fornecimento de gás levaram ao aumento dos custos energéticos, impactando a produção industrial.
• Declínio industrial: Sectores como o automóvel, o químico e o da engenharia estão a atravessar crises. A produção industrial tem vindo a diminuir desde 2017 e a Alemanha regista um crescimento mínimo do PIB desde finais de 2021.
• Desafios do sector automóvel: A mudança para veículos eléctricos e a concorrência dos fabricantes chineses afectaram negativamente a indústria automóvel da Alemanha, tradicionalmente uma pedra angular da sua economia.
• Alterações geopolíticas: As alterações na dinâmica do comércio global, especialmente no que diz respeito à China, perturbaram o modelo orientado para as exportações da Alemanha, necessitando de uma reavaliação das relações comerciais.
• Instabilidade política: O governo de coligação liderado pelo Chanceler Olaf Scholz enfrenta dificuldades em lidar eficazmente com estes desafios económicos, conduzindo à instabilidade política. Isto resultou num crescente apoio aos partidos da oposição que defendem reformas económicas.

Fico a pensar nas consequências do pântano alemão na economia portuguesa ...

• Redução dos fundos europeus, e toda a gente sabe o quanto este país vive da poupança dos frugais com a Alemanha à cabeça.
• A queda da procura alemã pode afectar as exportações portuguesas, especialmente industriais, impactando a produção e o emprego.
• Menor consumo alemão pode reduzir o turismo em Portugal, prejudicando o sector turístico.
• Empresas alemãs podem suspender ou reduzir investimentos em Portugal, afetando o crescimento e o emprego local.
• A crise pode levar o BCE a ajustar as taxas de juro, elevando o custo da dívida para Portugal e limitando o orçamento do governo.
• A UE pode exigir reformas em Portugal para aumentar sua resiliência económica e reduzir a dependência de subsídios.
• A crise alemã pode abalar a confiança na zona euro, afectando empresas portuguesas que dependem de mercados externos e financiamento estrangeiro.

Mas, por outro lado, a crise também pode levar empresas alemãs a procurar parcerias em energias renováveis, onde Portugal, com o seu potencial em energia solar e eólica, pode atrair novos investimentos.

BTW, o artigo começa asim:

"I an 30-plus-year career in corporate restructuring, consultant Andreas Rüter has seen it all: the dotcom bust, September 11, the global financial meltdown, the euro crisis, Covid-19. But what's happening right now in corporate Germany is "unprecedented" and "of a completely different order of magnitude", says Rüter, the country head of AlixPartners.

The federal republic's all-important automotive sector, chemical industry and engineering sector are all in a slump at the same time. Rüter's firm is so overwhelmed by demand for restructuring that it's turning potential clients away." 

Quantas empresas?

Como não recordar o velho ditado deste blogue, "Volume is vanity, profit is sanity". Como não recuar a 2007 e a Correr, correr, correr, só para não sair do sítio... 

"BERLIN, April 6 (Reuters) German carmaker Volkswagen will axe many combustion engine models by the end of the decade and sell fewer cars overall to concentrate on producing more profitable premium vehicles, its finance chief was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

"The key target is not growth, Arno Antlitz told the Financial Times newspaper. "We are (more focused) on quality and on margins, rather than on volume and market share."

Antlitz said VW would reduce its range of petrol and diesel cars, consisting of at least 100 models spread across several brands, by 60% in Europe over the next eight years.

The paper said VW's new strategy was a sign of profound changes in the auto sector, which has attempted for decades to increase profits by selling more cars each year, even if that required heavy discounting.

Former VW chief executive Martin Winterkorn, who resigned in the wake of a diesel emissions scandal, had made it his goal to beat Toyota and General Motors to the title of "volume number one" by 2018."

Trechos retirados de "VW to scrap models and focus on premium market -CFO tells FT" 

Quando esta semana li a notícia, num jornal português que não consigo precisar, pensei logo nas muitas análises de contexto que vejo nas empresas.

Por causa da ISO 9001 as organizações fazem, ou supostamente fazem, análises de contexto. Listam factores internos e externos mas depois ... o que fazem com isso? Nada, ou quase nada, ou folclore para auditor.

Quantas empresas certificadas e envolvidas no universo de fornecedores da VW vão reflectir sobre isto? E recuo a 2009 e a Perspectivar o futuro:

"As equipas de gestão dedicam, em média, menos de 1 hora por mês a discutir a sua estratégia!!!

Os autores não falam sobre as equipas de gestão do nosso país, referem-se aos Estados Unidos.

Pois bem, ontem descobri mais uma citação do mesmo calibre, desta vez atribuída a Hamel:

“On average senior managers devote less than 3 percent ... of their time to building a corporate perspective on their future.” [Hamel 1995] Hamel goes on to point out that some companies devote even less, and suggests that such efforts are far too little to generate helpful projections about the future.”"

Que pode um auditor dizer quando vê uma análise de contexto feita de forma infantil ou de forma negligente? Recordo Deming: "Survival is not mandatory" e também "It Isn’t Illegal to Be Stupid" (parte V).

Recordo Por que não fazer o exercício agora? e o muito recente O risco da complacência.

O risco da complacência

Este artigo, "Leading Change Means Changing How You Lead", começa assim:

"To develop effective strategy amid constant change, leaders must hone their ability to determine which changes will boost their organization's competitiveness. This series examines data from companies worldwide to provide practical insights for business leaders seeking advantage as they navigate complexity and change."

Para já concentro-me na situação das organizações bem sucedidas que não se apercebem da mudança e das suas implicações:

"When a business is performing well on fit to purpose and relative advantage, the leader needs to recognize the twin dangers of complacency (believing that there's no need for change) and hubris (overconfidence in the quality of one's leadership). Contextually effective leaders combat complacency by continually striving for change, and they combat hubris by recognizing that their own opinion is less significant than the opinions of key stakeholders."

E recuei a 2007/2008 e a um caso ... desenhei um cenário sobre um futuro que me parecia claro. O cenário foi desprezado e eu vi o projecto terminado. Menos de 28 meses depois grande parte do cenário concretizou-se e a organização viu o seu mundo desabar, literalmente. 

Subir na escala de valor, um exemplo

Ontem no postal "Olhar o touro de frente" escrevi acerca do futuro para as explorações leiteiras:

"Trabalha-se o numerador. Segue-se a lição de Marn e Rosiello, há que subir preços da única forma que um mercado competitivo permite, apostando em produtos de maior valor acrescentado, apostando na concorrência imperfeita. Não sei, confesso a minha ignorância, mas talvez criando experiências empresariais que desenvolvam produtos tecnológicos ou farmacêuticos à custa do leite, não necessariamente alimentares. Recordo as escamas do bacalhau islandês e as folhas das videiras."

Sim, eu sei o que costumo escrever aqui: os macacos não voam, trepam às árvores!

Entretanto, estava a preparar-me para sair para a Missa de Domingo quando deparo com este texto, "Kirin looks beyond beer with $870mn push into healthcare and pharma". Um produtor de cerveja, a braços com a quebra do consumo decorrente do Inverno demográfico e da crescente imagem negativa das bebidas alcoólicas no Japão, quer usar a techmogia e know-how sobre o processo de fermentação alcoólica em experiências biotecnológicas, para dar um novo rumo à empresa.

"Kirin will invest about ¥100bn ($870mn) in its healthcare and pharmaceutical businesses over the next three years, as the Japanese brewer pushes beyond the shrinking beer market at home and setbacks to its core businesses in Asia.

...

'If the beer segment would grow forever, it would've been better for us to focus on it, because making a challenge in a new business is very tough," he said.

...

'We want to turn Kirin into a fermentation biotechnology company. We need to grow a new business while the beer segment is still healthy," he added.

...

Kirin wants to use the technology of the beer-making process, in which sugars are converted by yeast to alcohol, in its biotech ventures."

Suspeito que uma abordagem destas, "making a challenge in a new business is very tough", nunca será seguida numa cooperativa sujeita a um processo eleitoral periódico. Uma abordagem destas é arriscada, não garante sucesso, e requer pensamento no longo prazo, disciplina e sangue frio. Uma abordagem destas requer passar poder, gradualmente, para outros "nerds", requer abertura a outro tipo de ecossistema de partes interessadas. Claro que os poderes estabelecidos reagirão, não por maldade, mas porque são humanos. Recordar:

"I'd argue that processes critically important for an organization's existence define its evolution. If something is existentially important, those providing it will have more leverage. And former strongmen become irrelevant. ...

Ergo. Economic processes aren't neutral power-wise. That's a major factor in the evolution of power structures. That would also explain why many in power would sabotage economic development. If it's too complex for them to administer, it will change the power balance, not in their favor."

 

Subsídios para um primeiro-ministro

"Ackoff (1981) contrasted five positions in relation to the future: reactive, which is past oriented; inactive, which is present oriented; pre-active, concerned with predicting the future; proactive, concerned with creating the future; and interactive, engaging and working with the future.

...

In the English language, the dictionary informs, a future event is considered to be a “time to come.” The future, in other words, is not something we go into, but something that comes at us. (This also implies that the future is different from the long term, which always happens later.) 

...

To clarify the conceptions of future time available to strategists and in decision-making processes, we have developed a heuristic called the “three arrows of time,” depicted in Figure 2.2:

The White Arrow represents the future embodied in our action planning. It is the future dependent on our will. It is manifested in processes such as schedules, roadmaps with milestones, budget plans, and goals with detailed targets and action plans. Management by objectives and most kinds of plans (strategic, tactical, operational) are familiar examples of this stance on the future. The White Arrow is informed by our sense of the gap between our current situation and the vision to which we aspire.

...

This White Arrow can hide deeper assumptions about the way the world should work, such as a deeply held narrative or myth of progress.

...

The Black Arrow timeline depicts the momentum of the past, the things that have already happened and that are expected to continue to have impact on one’s situation in the future. The Black Arrow is informed by horizon scanning, forecast-based planning, and trend/mega-trend impact analysis. For example, governments rely on demographic forecasting to anticipate how many children are going to be born and need to be educated, or to calculate when pensions will need to be paid out and for how long. Such analysis, in turn, informs the White Arrow timeline and the targets for maternity facilities and school building programs.

...

The Shaded Arrow depicts future developments that are coming toward us independent of our will. The Shaded Arrow is informed by redirecting attention to novel developments, emerging issues, weak signals, disruptive changes, etc. Imagination plays a large role here.

...

These plausible future contexts are constructed from the interaction of the yet-to-unfold certainties identified by the Black Arrow and the uncertainty of less familiar and novel developments introduced by the Shaded Arrow. The resulting scenarios (combining Black Arrow and Shaded Arrow conceptions of the future) can then help users to assess priorities and options for action, that is, the White Arrow (strategies or intentions)."

"Ao dr. Costa interessa tanto o que se vai passar daqui a três anos, como a mim o que se vai passar daqui a 300. O dr. Costa quer saber da semana que vem. O que é desesperante é que a direita nem a semana que vem percebe."

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) August 28, 2021

Uma semana entre estas duas notícias.
U-M-A-S-E-M-A-NA!
Zero estratégia. Zero respeito. Zero capacidade.
Fechem a porta e deitem a chave ao mar. pic.twitter.com/SFwSJPKx7g

— Pedro Moreira (@pismael) October 15, 2021

Trechos retirados de "Strategic Reframing" de Rafael Ramírez e Angela Wilkinson.   

E depois do confinamento: quem vai ficar bem?

Um artigo interessante no FT de hoje, "German shops reopen but celebrations in Berlin muted".

Claro que a cultura alemã é diferente da portuguesa, mas muitas empresas exportam para a Alemanha. Claro que a cultura alemã é diferente da portuguesa, mas não faz mal nenhum perceber o que se passa por lá, para prevenir o que se possa passar por cá. Não esquecer que uns ficam de calças na mão a perguntar: O que se passou?. Outros, olham ao longe e perguntam: O que é que pode vir aí?

"In Mitte, one of the German capital’s trendiest neighbourhoods, where thrift shops jostle for space with tech start-ups and glitzy boutiques, the streets were eerily empty. Most stores were still shut, and those that were open were largely devoid of customers.
.
“Our sales will collapse,” said Chantal Frohnhoefer, manager of Macchina Caffe, a small shop selling espresso machines. “No one really wants to go shopping right now. They’re still too scared they’ll get infected.” [Moi ici: Esta manhã, na minha caminhada, li mais um capítulo de "Surviving the Survival" de Laurence Gonzales, e sublinhei: “In general, states with stronger motivational significance tend to dominate. Animals that are being hunted by a predator don’t have the luxury of eating and having sex. Postponing these activities is coping as well.”]
...
“We are entering a long, lean period which could end up being even worse than the shutdown,” he said. “At least when shops were shut they were entitled to government aid. Now they’re on their own.”[Moi ici: O motor do desemprego]
...
“Consumers will be very cautious — they’ve seen a big loss of income, and they will want to save,” said Clemens Fuest, head of the Ifo Institute in Munich, a think-tank. “Shops will try to attract customers with discounts and special offers, but they’ll struggle to reach the sales volume they had before the crisis began.”
.
For cosmopolitan cities such as Berlin, [Moi ici: Ou Porto, ou Lisboa] the sudden halt to international travel is also having a big impact. “Normally this street is full of tourists — they’re the reason why Mitte is so lively,” said Ms Frohnhoefer.
...
Many customers were suffering from “existential fear”, she said. “They’re on furlough or even unemployed, so money is short.” And, in any case, no one is in the mood for “emotional purchases”, added Ms Steinbrenner. “There’s little point in buying new clothes if you’ve got nowhere to go to show them off.”
.
Though shops have reopened their doors, restaurants, cafés and bars remain closed. “The whole shopping experience has changed because you can’t buy stuff and go for a bite to eat afterwards,” said Mr Fuest. “That means people don’t go shopping just for the joy of it.”
...
“The air is going to be thin for a long time.”"

O que vale é que por cá não haverá austeridade! 🤥🤥🤥

O mundo que conhecemos nos últimos 20 anos vai mudar (parte II)

Ontem de manhã saí de casa pelas 6h30 e fui fazer uma caminhada junto ao mar. Por volta do km 4 lá voltei a encontrar as, já minhas amigas, rolas-do-mar.

Ao descer para a marginal ouvi este artigo "The Freewheeling, Copyright-Infringing World of Custom-Printed Tees":

"Exurbia had stumbled on what could be roughly described as the “Napster of Things.”
.
A New, Web-Enabled Industry
Companies like TeeChip are known as print-on-demand shops. They allow users to upload and market designs; when a customer places an order—say, for a T-shirt—the company arranges the printing, often done in-house, and the item is shipped to the customer. The technology gives anyone with an idea and an internet connection the ability to monetize their creativity and start a global merchandising line with no overhead, no inventory, and no risk. [Moi ici: Reparar na ligação com a parte I]
...
CafePress, which launched in 1999, was among the first print-on-demand operations; the business model spread in the mid-2000s along with the rise of digital printing. Previously, manufacturers would screen-print the same design onto items such as T-shirts, an overhead-intensive approach that usually requires bulk orders to turn a profit. With digital printing, ink is sprayed onto the material itself, allowing one machine to print several different designs in a day, making even one-off production profitable.
...
Many print-on-demand companies are fully integrated ecommerce platforms, allowing designers to manage easy-to-use web stores—similar to user pages on Etsy or Amazon. Some platforms, such as GearLaunch, allow designers to operate pages under unique domain names and integrate with popular ecommerce services such as Shopify, while providing marketing and inventory tools, production, delivery, and customer service."

Ontem, na parte I, referi: "Coronavirus, a Brescia manca una valvola per i rianimatori: ingegneri e fisici la stampano in 3D in sei ore".
Já esta manhã, ao abrir o Twitter apanho isto:

Duas coisas:

• empresa sem noção - Medical company threatens to sue volunteers that 3D-printed valves for life-saving coronavirus treatments
• a facilidade com que se faz o by-pass
• disparidade entre preço e custo

Quanto mais durar esta situação de excepção, mais a fome se irá juntar à vontade de comer. 

Histerese!!! A primeira vez que a li, neste novo contexto, esta semana, foi através de Hermann Simon:

"A questão de saber se haverá um efeito de histerese é muito interessante. Este é o nome de um fenómeno na Física em que um impulso temporário tem um efeito permanente. Um exemplo bem conhecido é a magnetização. Depois de uma peça de ferro ser magnetizada, ela permanece magnética por algum tempo. Portanto, a crise temporária levará a mudanças permanentes no comportamento do consumidor."

Depois de experimentada esta nova realidade, quando o novo normal emergir, muitas organizações e pessoas não voltarão às práticas do passado. Assim, muitos modelos de negócio estarão obsoletos e muitos mais aparecerão baseados na necessidade e em:

"The technology gives anyone with an idea and an internet connection the ability to monetize their creativity ... with no overhead, no inventory, and no risk."

Num mundo sem patentes, não se ganha a vida a cobrar rendas por peças. Num mundo sem patentes:

"Num mundo sem patentes... tudo é acelerado.
.
A única forma de uma empresa se manter à tona é nunca parar, é estar sempre à frente da onda." 

Alguns sintomas de mudanças em curso

Alguns sintomas de mudanças em curso:

• The ‘Amazon effect’ is flooding a struggling recycling system with cardboard
• H&M is trialling a clothing rental service for members
• The direct-to-consumer strategy is making a run at Amazon's throne e The Direct-to-Consumer Reckoning

E reflectir em:

“myopia causes us to miss vital signals that are sometimes literally under our noses. While attention tends to focus on the obvious, the ‘noisiest’, the here and now, at the same time, less obvious changes holding future significance tend to pass unnoticed until it’s too late.
...
And industry myopia is the primary reason change is experienced as disruption — ‘We didn’t see that coming!
...
industry myopia is the primary reason change is experienced as disruption — ‘We didn’t see that coming!”

Trechos retirados de “Rethinking Strategy” de Steve Tighe.

Cuidado com a facilidade com que projectamos o contexto

Na sequência de "Tempo para desenhar cenários alternativos"

“the future remains the essential missing element in strategy.
...
Most strategies take the future for granted, assuming future conditions will be similar to those of today, and presenting the achievement of future goals as a fait accompli.
...
There are many definitions of strategy, and to varying degrees most of these touch on the concepts of goals, directions, pathways and plans, yet very few explicitly focus on the central role of the future, or rather our perceptions of the future. Most therefore underplay the critical relationship between the goals being set, the strategies being developed and the future environments in which these strategies might be played out.
Instead, by simply presenting strategy as ‘a path to get from here to there’, plausible changes in the business environment are either ignored or taken for granted. The illusion of managerial control and future certainty is propagated, as the achievement of corporate goals is falsely presented as a fait accompli; as long as management can get its planning right (HOW), everything will be fine. Serious consideration is rarely given to the changed future conditions in which these goals might have to be achieved, or even whether the goals will remain legitimate in light of these changed conditions.”

Ontem li no JdN "Calçado português trava a fundo":

"As exportações da “indústria mais sexy da Europa” vão fechar 2019 em forte baixa, pelo segundo ano consecutivo, após uma década a bater recordes. São cada vez mais as empresas do setor que “enfrentam dificuldades financeiras”.
...
Após 10 anos gloriosos, acumulando um crescimento de cerca de 50% nas vendas ao exterior e multiplicando por quatro o número de mercados, a indústria portuguesa do calçado perdeu fulgor e o palco mediático como farol de um desígnio nacional chamado exportações."

Alguns sintomas desgarrados (?) como "Desemprego sobe? Culpa é da criação de emprego “menos vigorosa”".

Alguma coisa está a mudar? É claro que Krugman tinha razão quando dizia que os sectores não vendem, são as empresas em particular que vendem... ou não.

Cuidado com a facilidade com que projectamos o contexto do passado e presente, para o futuro. Quando podemos ser mais um perú para o Dia de Acção de Graças ou na véspera da Páscoa.

Trechos retirados de “Rethinking Strategy” de Steve Tighe.

Tempo para desenhar cenários alternativos

A propósito de "Audi vai cortar 9.500 empregos na Alemanha até 2025"

"Audi shocked Germany yesterday with the announcement of almost 10,000 job cuts, leading to prompt accusations of mismanagement. We are no experts in management but would offer the observation that mismanagement is as prevalent in the car industry today as it has been before. The decline of the fuel-driven car and the diesel scandal have been a huge problem for Audi and the other German car makers. They need the money for new investments.
.
The decline of the German car industry is happening on many levels. Car component suppliers are being hit the hardest. Some are so specialised that the phase-out of the fuel-driven engine puts them out of business. Electric engines are much simpler than combustion ones and they use only a fraction of the parts. These, in turn, are not as highly tuned. The technological know-how, and the value-added, lies in the battery.
.
Audi is the first of the big German car makers to announce job cuts. Next year, most of the job losses in the sector are likely to occur in the supplier industries. Jobs in the car industry still protected until 2021 and 2022, due to job guarantees. The employment effect will therefore reveal itself over a longer period of time.
.
We note two overlapping effects - one is a relatively mild global cyclical downturn. The other is a structural technology shock. The impact of the latter will be much longer lasting."

Há cerca de um ano que as empresas de moldes estão a sentir a travagem brutal da cadeia de fornecimento de novos modelos automóveis. Ainda hoje vi um mapa comparativo que ilustra a guerra de preços em que até as multinacionais de peças e serviços estão a entrar.

Entretanto, numa leitura matinal que fez lembrar o ministro da Economia apanhei:

"Yet it took Xerox about 10 years to begin rethinking how to find a radically different relationship, between a new set of (a) capabilities and (b) its understanding of customers' value creation"

Portanto, muita turbulência a caminho. Nada que não prevêssemos aqui.

Surpresa? Só para os fragilistas.

Masoquismo ou mau feitio? Não, apenas as "certezas" que resultam da conjugação de uma série de factores:

• alterações tecnológicas;
• advento de Mongo e as suas encomendas pequenas com muita variedade;
• incapacidade de um modelo de negócio durar para sempre (lembram-se do tempo de Cavaco?)

Trecho retirado de "Audi cuts jobs - the beginning of a trend"

Correntes e tendências

Ontem apanhei este título "William De Vijlder: “O telhado da economia portuguesa está na melhor forma de sempre”" de onde sublinhei o lead:

"O economista-chefe do BNP Paribas diz que os robôs ou a imigração são a solução para a escassez de mão de obra."

Perspectivar o futuro como uma continuação linear do presente costuma dar maus resultados.

Nos últimos tempos tenho apanhado cada vez mais textos sobre tendências que podem vir a afectar a economia do futuro. Quando escrevo sobre Mongo:

• já escrevi sobre o DIY (faça você mesmo - e as cooperativas de bairro);
• há dias li sobre o fenómeno crescente da venda em 2ª mão - "Outro factor a alterar a paisagem competitiva"
• hei-de escrever sobre o DFY (done for you) (o que implica proximidade, customização - o retorno da modista e do alfaiate)
• no ano passado o Rui Moreira chamou-me a atenção para o crescente número de marcas de calçado que disponibilizam o serviço de reparação de calçado
• ontem li "The life-changing magic of making do" e julgo que é um sintoma de outra corrente a retornar, a da frugalidade. A do retorno do sapateiro, ou da modista.

Estas correntes e outras hão-de alterar os paradigmas de consumo e, dessa forma, os paradigmas de produção e comercialização, sem falar na impressão 3D.

Estas correntes tanto darão resposta às questões ambientais; como à falta de mão de obra, como à crescente tribalização do gosto em nichos à la Mongo.

Cenários

Esta introdução:

"A maior produtora mundial de cervejas decidiu cancelar a entrada em bolsa da sua unidade da Ásia-Pacífico devido às condições atuais do mercado."

Há dois anos animei uma discussão em que esta abordagem emergiu num cenário.

Um player muito grande, potencial cliente B2B, num determinado sector iria abandonar a prática de produzir na China para todo o mundo e criar unidades produtivas para servir cada um dos continentes.

Esse player, como a AB InBev, compete pelo custo mais baixo.

"Such volatility highlights the folly of strategic inertia or, worse, managerial hubris"

“Overcoming myopia begins with situating the organisation and its transactional environment within the broader context of society. Such a perspective recognises the deeper causal relationships that enable and drive industry dynamics and outcomes. Understanding what these causal relationships are, how they might change and how they could affect future operating dynamics is the essence of scenario planning.
.
The transactional environment is the arena in which the organisation participates, where the perceived value or benefits it creates are exchanged to satisfy perceived wants and needs. The organisation has an immediate relationship with this environment. The actions of industry stakeholders can have a direct influence on the organisation; and through its policies and actions, the organisation can exert direct influence on industry outcomes. Actors within this environment include customers, employees, distributors, suppliers, regulators, competitors, unions and other relevant participants

The dynamics of the transactional environment are invariably enabled or driven by factors beyond the industry’s boundaries. Within this broader social environment are the deeper, less obvious factors influencing industry dynamics, including demographics, social values, technology, climate, legislation, employment levels and interest rates.
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Together these factors evolve, interact and combine to provide a shifting and dynamic context for the organisation’s operations. At any given time, a unique mix of factors is interacting to produce a particular operating context. And as changes occur across each of these factors, this mix changes, shaping the attitudes, behaviours, wants and needs of society, and ultimately influencing the benefits customers seek from your business 

This shifting contextual dynamic serves up a series of ongoing strategic fitness tests where the corporate challenge is to remain in alignment with the environment. Such volatility highlights the folly of strategic inertia or, worse, managerial hubris, a point well made by Theodore Levitt in his classic article ‘Marketing Myopia’. ‘In truth, there is no such thing as a growth industry,’ he argued. ‘There are only companies organized and operated to create and capitalize on growth opportunities. Industries that assume themselves to be riding some automatic growth escalator invariably descend into stagnation.’[Moi ici: Lembra-se da malta que espera a boleia da maré?]
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By instead adopting a contextual outlook, historical trends, and the forecasts based on these trends, are put into perspective. You are able to look at your historical performance, not from the position of absolute outcomes and trends, but from the deeper perspective of underlying drivers and conditions that led to those outcomes. The result is an appreciation for society’s fluency and a broader outlook towards the future.”

Trecho de Steve Tighe retirado de “Rethinking Strategy”

Tendências

Na sequência de "Alterações que podem ter implicações ..."

"BoF: What industry shifts are you most optimistic about?
.
DLR: The two biggest changes are sustainability and inclusivity. 10 years ago, [sustainability] was kind of a niche topic, [but] now it’s on everybody’s lips — everyone from Zara to H&M and Arket are using sustainable fibres. Everybody in our industry is getting conscious about our impact on the environment, as well as how popular and sales-driving it can be to become more eco-responsible.
...
BoF: What topics should the fashion industry be debating more vigorously?
.
DLR: In my personal opinion, one of the biggest issues at the moment is overproduction. There's too much product and too many collections. The market is oversaturated. I don't know how this trend could stop but, the industry — both fast fashion and luxury brands — are moving towards the concept of dropping small capsule collections with the aim of selling out. This could be a test for being more limited in production.
...
BoF: What are you doing differently in your role this year?
.
DLR: My roles at Valentino and Loro Piana are the complete opposite of overproduction. We actually want to produce and sell just a bit less than what people are going to buy because in luxury, we are all based on rarity and desirability. We cannot — and do not want to — overproduce. It has to remain a very special and precious style that you will keep for years, if not generations.
.
At Loro Piana, our ultimate focus is quality, durability [and] sourcing the most precious fibres out there. On a professional and personal level, it's already going against this overproduction and overconsumption, as it's a kind of conscious consumption."

Acham que as estruturas produtivas de ontem continuarão a ser as de amanhã?

Trechos retirados de "Loro Piana's Danielle Lesage-Rochette: 'One of the Biggest Issues at the Moment Is Overproduction'"

Uma das tendências do mercado actual

Um artigo interessante sobre uma das tendências do mercado actual "More Americans Are Living Solo, and Companies Want Their Business":

"More Americans than ever are living alone these days, and many don’t want to bake full-size cakes, buy eggs by the dozen, run half-loaded dishwashers or store 24-packs of toilet paper.
...
Consumer-products companies are taking note, catering to what they see as a lucrative market for single-person households by upending generations of family-focused product development and marketing. Appliance makers are shrinking refrigerators and ovens. Food companies are producing more single-serving options. Household-product makers are revamping packaging.
...
“We have to go beyond the paradigm of the middle-class family of four for growth, so smaller households have been a huge focus for us,”
...
Looking beyond the family of four, she says, “is a really big shift.”
...
Today, 35.7 million Americans live alone, 28% of households. That is up from 13% of households in 1960 and 23% in 1980, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Delayed or foregone marriage, [Moi ici: Ontem de manhã sentado no hall de um hotel, enquanto aguardava a chegada de uma pessoa, ouvia uma conversa de turistas brasileiras todas bem entradas na terceira idade. Uma delas dizia para as outras, com um toque de reprovação, que o filho de 34 anos nem pensava em casar] longer life expectancy, urbanization and wealth have contributed, demographers say.
...
Researchers have found many affluent, single-person households in urban areas tend to spend more per person than larger ones. They are often willing to spend more for a unit of something—twice as much, say, for chopped romaine as a whole head.
.
Some want smaller appliances but bigger closets, or prefer one huge roll of toilet paper over multiple backup rolls they must store somewhere. Many marketers approach single-person households with urban consumers in mind.
...
For generations, consumers favored appliances with the biggest capacity, so manufacturers have long boasted how many towels squeeze into a washing machine or how easily a large turkey slides into an oven. But small households usually choose appliances by finding which will best fit their space, companies say.
.
“They’re not trying to load every towel in from the pool,”"

"Thinking about the future"

"If somebody tells you they can predict the future, don't believe them. Nobody can predict large socio-technical transformations and what exactly these are going to look like.
...
So, if no one can predict the future, why think about it? Because doing so helps you to inoculate yourself. In the medical field, inoculating yourself prevents you from falling ill. In futures thinking, if you've considered a whole range of possibilities, you're kind of inoculating yourself. If one of these possibilities comes about, you're better prepared.
...
Thinking about the future is also about imagining. It's about transforming how we think. It's about creating a map to the future and looking for the big areas of opportunity. We like to think about transformations, for example, in learning and work, and how they get connected and intertwined in various ways. And then we start thinking about zones of opportunity. How can we shape the future to make it more equitable? How can we amplify learning outcomes? What do we need to do to achieve these outcomes?
.
The future doesn't just happen to us. We have agency in imagining and creating the kind of future we want to live in, and we can take actions to get us there.
...
I said earlier that there is no data about the future; the only data we have is about the past. While we cannot fully rely on past data to help us see the future, there are larger patterns in history that we tend to repeat over and over again. Thus, we need to look back to see forward.
...
At its best, futures thinking is not about predicting the future; rather, it is about engaging people in thinking deeply about complex issues, imagining new possibilities, connecting signals into larger patterns, connecting the past with the present and the future, and making better choices today. Futures thinking skills are essential for everyone to learn in order to better navigate their own lives and to make better decisions in the face of so many transformations in our basic technologies and organizational structures. The more you practice futures thinking, the better you get. The five principles outlined above—not focusing on predictions, uncovering signals, understanding historical trajectories, weaving together larger patterns, and bringing diverse voices into the conversation—should help you on your journey of making futures thinking a way of life for you and your community."

Trechos retirados "Five Principles for Thinking Like a Futurist"

Para reflexão

Para imaginar, para especular sobre as potenciais consequências e oportunidades em torno desta evolução:

"Wind and solar technologies have extended their lead over fossil fuel generation on costs of new plant, and are now as cheap, or even cheaper, than existing coal, gas and nuclear power plants – even compared to existing and fully-depreciated fossil fuel generators.
...
“As alternative energy costs continue to decline, storage remains the key to solving the problem of intermittency and we are beginning to see a clearer path forward for economic viability in storage technologies.”
...
since 2009 solar has fallen in cost by 88 per cent and wind has fallen by 69 per cent."

Trechos retirados de "Lazard hails “inflection point” as wind, solar costs beat new and old fossils"

Às vezes "it sucks" ter razão

Recuo a 2010 e 2008 em "Sobre a impossibilidade de prever o futuro e o paradoxo de Zenão (parte I)" depois de ver esta reportagem.

Estava escrito nas estrelas, com 10 anos de antecedência estas escolas poderiam ter tomado certas medidas para mudar de vida, enquanto existiam graus de liberdade.

A propósito de ver ao longe

Ontem, numa empresa disseram-me:

Se você for ver a idade das pessoas que trabalham aqui na empresa vai descobrir que dentro de 10 anos cerca de 80% delas não vão estar cá. Estarão na reforma.

Pensei logo, e onde vão conseguir gente nova para substituir essa geração?

Esta manhã, no local onde tomei café estava uma cópia desactualizada do JN, dei uma vista de olhos rápida e ainda tirei esta foto:

Vamos esquecer o título porque acredito que se trata de treta simplista, como se fizesse sentido apoiar empresas que tinham a procura insustentável. O que me interessa é o lead:

"... o Homem [Moi ici: ehehe, vê-se logo que é um machista heteropatriarcal] é cada vez menos o factor-chave da produção e os empregos serão escassos"

Aqui no blogue estamos numa outra onda. A demografia vai ser implacável e a breve trecho vamos ter um choque de falta de mão-de-obra neste país pouco recomendável para quem trabalha, dado o jugo fiscal que vigora. E em Mongo, vão descobrir que o factor-chave de produção será o humano capaz de interagir e co-criar com uma rede de outros humanos. Automatização e robôs terão o seu lugar a produzir o que restar do modelo do século XX e das grandes séries. No entanto, o grosso da economia será baseada em artesãos modernos apoiados por algumas máquinas.

Acerca do futuro do trabalho

Um estudo sobre o futuro do trabalho, que merece ser lido: "Shift: The Commission on Work, Workers, and Technology - Report of Findings".

Por exemplo:

"We took several trends as givens, so we could focus on the uncertainties on which the future of work depends. We identified four almost-inevitable forces:
1. An aging workforce;
2. The decline of “dynamism,” the movement of people
between jobs, firms, and places;
3. A societal shift to non-work income;
4. Growing geographic gaps.
By 2024, nearly one-quarter of the workforce is projected to be 55 or older — more than double the share in 1994.
...
Accepting these economic trends as givens, our members then considered the most important uncertainties about the future. After initially considering 16 variables, we selected these two as most important:
1. the structure of work — will there be more “tasks” (a catchall including contracting, projects, the “gig economy,” and the like) or will work remain concentrated in traditionally structured jobs?
2. the effect of automation — will technological changes result in more or less work to go around?"