Estou a escrever estas linhas antes de sair para uma caminhada matinal arriscada, está a chover, onde vou ler um artigo que me enviaram ontem. A mensagem principal é: antecipe!
Antecipe a entrada no mundo digital, enquanto a sua sobrevivência é assegurada pelo retalho tradicional.
Nos últimas semanas já devo ter lido mais de 10 títulos onde a palavra recessão aparece. E isso já é um indicador avançado de algo. Quem me conhece sabe que vaticino um 2020 doloroso economicamente, sobretudo para quem vive do mercado interno.
2019 vai ser penoso para o PS, 2020 vai ser penoso para os portugueses https://t.co/LOvSUOMnAG— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) March 3, 2019
Fundamental a vitória do PS em 2019, para ter de lidar com recessão europeia e lixo debaixo do tapete em 2020 https://t.co/CZaCzetU81 já comprei as pipocas— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) October 7, 2018
Por isso, recomendo aos empresários das PMEs que leiam todos os artigos que possam encontrar sobre esta temática "How to Survive a Recession and Thrive Afterward".
Façam como as vacas, leiam e ruminem sobre a coisa. Ruminem para destilar o que será relevante para o caso de cada um. Alguns tópicos:
"during the recessions of 1980, 1990, and 2000, 17% of the 4,700 public companies they studied fared particularly badly: They went bankrupt, went private, or were acquired. But just as striking, 9% of the companies didn’t simply recover in the three years after a recession—they flourished, outperforming competitors by at least 10% in sales and profits growth. A more recent analysis by Bain using data from the Great Recession reinforced that finding. The top 10% of companies in Bain’s analysis saw their earnings climb steadily throughout the period and continue to rise afterward. A third study, by McKinsey, found similar results.
The difference maker was preparation. Among the companies that stagnated in the aftermath of the Great Recession, “few made contingency plans or thought through alternative scenarios,” according to the Bain report. “When the downturn hit, they switched to survival mode, making deep cuts and reacting defensively.” Many of the companies that merely limp through a recession are slower to recover and never really catch up.
Decentralized firms were better able to adjust to changing conditions.
How should a company prepare in advance of a recession and what moves should it make when one hits? Research and case studies examining the Great Recession shed light on those questions. In some cases, they cement conventional wisdom; in others, they challenge it. Some of the most interesting findings deal with four areas: debt, decision making, workforce management, and digital transformation. The underlying message across all areas is that recessions are a high-pressure exercise in change management, and to navigate one successfully, a company needs to be flexible and ready to adjust."