quinta-feira, janeiro 23, 2020

O ideal

"Uma das grandes vantagens do investimento estrangeiro é o know-how que traz. Gosto do investimento estrangeiro para aprendermos com eles, não para eles aprenderem connosco. O capital estrangeiro torna a economia portuguesa mais produtiva e exportadora. É o caso dos investimentos da Autoeuropa, da Bosch, aqui em Braga, ou da Ikea, entre outros. Mas duvido que tenhamos muito a aprender com o capital angolano, a não ser, claro, sobre como capturar governos."
O ideal era termos um enquadramento legal e fiscal que não obrigasse o investimento estrangeiro a ter de negociar condições especiais com o governo de turno.


Trecho retirado de "Ao menos os ratos abandonam o navio, não o afundam" no Público de ontem.

"Scenarios are about freedom"

Há sectores económicos em que empresas bem sucedidas são capazes de, em certas alturas do ciclo económico anual, precisarem de crédito bancário para financiarem a sua actividade. Agora imaginem que começam a surgir mais e mais notícias de encerramentos e falências de empresas desses sectores económicos. Mesmo as empresas bem sucedidas desses sectores, vão sentir cada vez mais dificuldade em obter crédito bancário.

O que acabei de escrever é outro exemplo da aplicação do pensamento baseado no risco.

(1) Factor externo negativo - notícias cada vez mais frequentes de encerramentos e falências no nosso sector.
(2) Factor interno negativo - o nosso nível de actividade actual requer um volume de crédito relevante para financiar a actividade durante parte do ciclo anual.
(3) Risco - dificuldade crescente em obter crédito bancário.
“Having explored the factors influencing their operating environment, how these factors might evolve and their possible future impacts, managers emerge from the scenario process with a broader and deeper understanding of the environment in which they have to function and compete. In turn, this learning provides a liberating dose of clarity:
  • ‘This is what we think could happen.(3)’
  • ‘This is why we think it could happen.(1x2)’
  • ‘This is how we think it could happen.’
  • And this is what we intend to do about it.’
In this sense, the organisational learning that occurs is empowering. Scenarios are about freedom. They allow you to act with confidence on the original insights you generate. In turn, this confidence provides another nail in the coffin of the stereotype of scenarios as a conservative tool for risk management.”



Trechos retirados de “Rethinking Strategy” de Steve Tighe.

Quantos projectos?

Ontem de manhã li o artigo "Learning for a Living" e logo no início sublinhei:
“Get ready for an age in which we are all in tech,” he had told them, “whether you work in the tech industry or not.”
E sorri. Sorri, porque foi o que pensei ao iniciar a leitura de “Zone to Win - Organizing to Compete in an Age of Disruption” de Geoffrey A. Moore, um velho conhecido deste blogue (o primeiro livro que comprei dele foi em 2007). Por exemplo, ontem durante a caminhada matinal ao olhar para a figura:
Pensei nas empresas de calçado que depois de uma feira desanimadora em Garda começam a pensar seriamente em mudar de vida.
  • Performance zone - “This is the engine room for operating established franchises on proven business models. The focus is on material revenue performance derived from established businesses that are sustaining to the status quo. It is home to the organizations that make the offers you sell and sell the offers you make. ... The importance of maintaining the viability of the performance zone can hardly be overstated. It is the source of more than 90 percent of the enterprise’s revenues and well north of 100 percent of its profits.” [Moi ici: Fundamental continuar a vender, produzir, entregar, facturar, receber e cumprir os compromissos]
  • Productivity zone - “The focus is on applying sustaining innovation to productivity-enabling initiatives targeted primarily at the performance zone with the bulk of the ROI expected to fall into Horizon 1. These initiatives are delivered via programs and systems for ensuring regulatory compliance, efficient operations, and effective competitive performance. The normal challenge for the productivity zone is to manage the tensions among its three core deliverables—compliance, efficiency, and effectiveness—without subordinating any one of them to the other two.” [Moi ici: A facturação está a baixar, o próximo ciclo de crescimento ainda não está assegurado, é preciso aumentar a produtividade. Pode passar por reduzir gama de produtos, pode passar por encolher, pode passar por deixar de recorrer a subcontratação, ou passar a recorrer a subcontratação]
  • Incubation zone - “the incubation zone plays enabling host to fast-growing offers in emerging categories and markets that are not yet producing a material amount of revenue. Its charter is a simple one: Position the enterprise to catch the next wave.” [Moi ici: Qualquer empresa deve ter um "recreio" onde se fazem experiências. Por exemplo, ontem mandaram-me um pdf com este gráfico
  • Transformation zone - “the place in an established enterprise where a disruptive business model goes to be scaled to material size. It is primarily a tool for offense, the goal being to scale rapidly to a stable, material, net new line of business, one that constitutes 10 percent or more of the enterprise’s current revenues, on a growth trajectory that promises both increased size and superior profitability.” [Moi ici: Aqui, o risco principal é ter o novo modelo de negócio gerido por quem tem o mindset formatado no nível anterior do jogo. Por exemplo, ter medo de afectar a eficiência, quando o novo modelo pede rapidez acioma de tudo]
Quantos projectos é que a sua empresa tem na Incubation zone? Tem algum projecto na Transformation zone? O que está a fazer para limpar na Productivity zone?

quarta-feira, janeiro 22, 2020

O retorno dos independentes

“If we see our products as books and what we compete on price, we lose. If we see our product as an experience, of which books are one piece, then we can compete.”
"Raffaelli distills the resurgence of the indies down to three main points: Community, Curation, and Convening.
.
Community: As longtime community stalwarts, bookstores have been at the vanguard of the “buy local” movement, pioneering events such as Small-Business Saturday, and making their customers feel virtuous about spending money in their own neighborhoods. “It’s almost like a social movement,” says Raffaelli, who says indie bookstores are “anchors of authenticity in an ever-increasing digital and disconnected world.” The notion goes beyond a bond with customers to include other important community actors, such as schools, chambers of commerce, and civic organizations, reinforcing the social fabric and engendering a strong sense of customer and community loyalty.
.
Curation: Despite the increasing sophistication of online algorithms, online platforms have been unable to replicate the knowledge and passion of indie bookstore employees, says Raffaelli. “Many booksellers are voracious readers and serve as trusted guides who can point their customers to new genres or up-and-coming authors they might not have encountered,” he says. “Customers leave the store excited and then want to come back.” By contrast, he says, Amazon’s reputation as “the everything store” can sometimes work against it, overwhelming consumers with too many options and an impersonal experience.
.
Convening: Indie bookstores are increasingly serving as points for convening, expanding beyond author events to host book groups, children’s story hours, birthday parties, music events, knitting circles, culinary demonstrations, and other events. Several stores Raffaelli visited reported staging over 500 events a year. “Bookstores have always been a place where people could convene and have a conversation about the issues of the day,” he says, adding that bookstore owners are increasingly seeing their competition not as Barnes & Noble, but as Netflix and other entertainment apps that tie people to their couches. “Retailers who succeed are able to create a unique experience that consumers see as time well-spent. [Moi ici: Nunca esqueço de Pine e a sua relaação entre experiência e "time weel spent"] Not only do such events get people into the store—the number one goal of every retailer—but events open the door for readers to connect with other bibliophiles, creating more demand for their products.
Ironically, in their efforts to build community, bookstores have increasingly embraced the online world as a tool to extend their reach. “Bookstores have become sophisticated at building a social media presence,” Raffaelli says. “Many owners have hired online specialists to extend the conversation outside the four walls of the bookstore itself.”

Interessante esta ferramenta de avaliação das lojas:

 Fontes:

"when speed is low, development requires big investments"

O meu parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras enviou-me o link para este artigo "Six ingredients of agile organizational design" com o comentário:
"Só agora associei o Scrum como uma resposta para planeamento do Mongo!"
Caro amigo... até apetece exclamar: Duh!!!

Li o artigo duas vezes e das duas vezes sublinhei este trecho:
"Nowadays, a company’s chances of survival are low if it takes too long to create (new) products. Our company becomes slow if we need a number of teams, each producing a part of the product, to be able to create possible customer value. The specialised team approach creates many dependencies between teams when we try to create customer value. We only know if our product (or change) is successful after releasing it in the hands of the customer because that is when we get real feedback and our assumptions are validated. The slower our company is, the longer it takes before we get customer feedback, i.e. return on investment (if any). That’s why when speed is low, development requires big investments." 
E sorri ao relacionar com a série "Acerca da rapidez" e com as novas regras de xadrez. Mongo tem tudo a ver com rapidez, flexibilidade e personalização.

E acerca de:
"Some teams do not even know what value they are creating from a customer point of view: the workers have never seen a real customer or they don’t have one because they deliver so-called “products” to another department."
Fez-me recordar um texto citado aqui no blogue recentemente:
"Leaders who connect employees with end users motivate higher performance, measured in terms of revenue as well as supervisors’ ratings.
...
Customers, clients, patients, and others who benefit from a company’s products and services motivate employees by serving as tangible proof of the impact of their work, expressing appreciation for their contributions, and eliciting empathy, which helps employees develop a deeper understanding of customers’ needs."

terça-feira, janeiro 21, 2020

“The core problem is uncertainty”

"It was expected, perhaps, but still startling. In its 22nd Annual Global CEO Survey, PwC asked 1,378 top business leaders from around the world which territories (excluding their own) they considered the most important for their company’s growth prospects in the next 12 months. The world’s chief executives were noticeably noncommittal. As many as 15 percent of them answered “don’t know” in 2019, up from 8 percent the previous year.CEOs in the United States were even more dubious: 14 percent of them didn’t consider any other markets suitable for growth, up from only 2 percent in the 2018 survey.
...
This shift in attitude is already reflected in business investment. Of the 31 percent of CEOs who said they were “extremely concerned” about trade wars, 45 percent said they were shifting their supply chain strategy, and 25 percent said they were shifting their growth strategies to other territories.
...
Fundamental aspects of the global economy have been shifting for more than a decade. Elements undergoing change include costs for manufacturing (including labor costs, which are rising), new technological platforms (such as those associated with Industry 4.0), stronger suppliers and other businesses in emerging markets (which are maturing), middle-class consumer populations around the world (which are growing rapidly in emerging markets and shrinking in other places), and political and regulatory uncertainties.
...
A new model of market expansion strategy — we call it “internationalization” — is replacing the globalism of the early 2000s. This model acknowledges that the global business ecosystem now includes many small and medium-sized enterprises and ambitious family businesses, often based in emerging markets, linked together by collaborative supply chains and platforms. At the same time, larger companies with established global supply chains have realized that they need to bring their operations closer to the demand they are targeting. The trade tensions of 2019 have heightened awareness of these dynamics, and accelerated the business response to them.
...
To be sure, global trade will still thrive, but there will be more regional concentration. Rather than shipping goods around the world from cheaplabor hubs, companies manufacture goods for Asian customers in Asia, for European customers in Central Europe, and for North American customers in Latin America. They develop regional footprints, sourcing from more locations."
Interessante:
"The World Trade Organization (WTO) published a report in June 2019 showing that G20 nations had implemented 20 new restrictive trade measures between October 2018 and May 2019, including higher tariffs, import bans, and new customs procedures for exports.
...
All this has had a chilling effect on international commerce. Imports by G20 economies were 1.2 percent lower in the first quarter of 2019 than they were a year earlier, whereas exports were only marginally (0.4 percent) higher, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development figures show. “The core problem is uncertainty,” said Piyush Gupta, chief executive of Singapore’s largest domestic bank, DBS, in an interview with strategy+business. “There’s a general environment of skittishness.”"
Trechos retirados de "Growth strategies for an uncertain world"

Para reflexão

Um texto para reflexão:
“Burroughs • Sperry Univac • Honeywell • Control Data • MSA • McCormack & Dodge • Cullinet • Cincom • ADR • CA • DEC • Data General • Wang • Prime • Tandem • Daisy • Calma • Valid • Apollo • Silicon Graphics • Sun • Atari • Osborne • Commodore • Casio • Palm • Sega • WordPerfect • Lotus • Ashton Tate • Borland • Informix • Ingres • Sybase • BEA • Seibel • PowerSoft • Nortel • Lucent • 3Com • Banyan • Novell • Pacific Bell • Qwest • America West • Nynex • Bell South • Netscape • MySpace • Inktomi • Ask Jeeves • AOL • Blackberry • Motorola • Nokia • Sony
.
I have spent the entirety of my business career working in the technology sector, and I can assure you, if you are looking for next waves to catch, there is no better place to hang out. Nevertheless, there are fifty-six companies on this list of companies that failed to do so. Look at the names. These were not the losers; these were the winners! These were not our worst management teams; these were our best! And yet every single one of them missed every single one of their efforts to catch the next big wave—hundreds and hundreds of misses with nary a single hit. Why is this so hard?It turns out, to disrupt someone else’s business, you have to add a net new line of business to your own portfolio. This is, in effect, a form of elective surgery, one that can be scheduled at will. Because it is voluntary, because we get to choose the time and place of engagement, we are led to believe we have things under control. Unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth. The real truth is most companies take run after run at this hurdle, but each time, at the critical juncture, that moment when you have to either go big or go home, they shy away. Normally it is not until their own legacy business comes under attack that they can summon the will to change, but by then it is usually too late.
Trechos retirados de “Zone to Win: Organizing to Compete in an Age of Disruption” de Geoffrey A. Moore.

segunda-feira, janeiro 20, 2020

"o tempo das marcas tradicionais terminou"

Ao longo dos anos tenho escrito aqui no blogue sobre Mongo e sobre a suckiness dos gigantes. Apesar disso foi com alguma surpresa que li "Época dos construtores tradicionais acabou, diz CEO da VW":
"Foi num discurso duro e com um conjunto de mensagens alarmantes que o CEO do Grupo Volkswagen se dirigiu aos seus colegas seniores da administração, após a reunião global do conglomerado que dirige. Referindo-se ao futuro de um grupo que nos últimos anos liderou o mercado mundial em vendas, Herbert Diess avisou, segundo a Reuters, que o tempo das marcas tradicionais terminou e que a empresa que dirige tem de acelerar a sua remodelação para evitar transformar-se na nova Nokia,
...
Para Diess, os objectivos a curto prazo passam por cortar nos custos e incrementar as receitas
...
Para o CEO, a receita para atingir os fins passa reduzir a complexidade, incrementar a produtividade, especialmente na Alemanha, concluindo que, acima de tudo, o grupo tem de se concentrar mais no lucro e menos nos volumes de vendas. [Moi ici: Como não recordar o velho slogan deste blogue "Volume is Vanity, Profit is Sanity", como não recordar a "anorexia empresarial"]"
O que vai minorando a queda das empresas grandes é a protecção de Bruxelas e dos governos dos estados com regulação e legislação. Estamos algures naqueles dias incipientes numa evolução exponencial de nenúfares, antes do dia 47. Que milhares de Local Motors floresçam.

Acerca da rapidez (parte III)

Parte II e parte I.

Quem anda nisto há alguns anos sabe que a "the next big thing" não virá como um passe de mágico, como uma revelação profética de um qualquer ministro, ou académico, ou paineleiro (a minha clássica tríade). Esses ainda estão a aprender como é que ganhámos na jogada anterior bilhetes para jogar no novo nível sem ser no preço puro e duro.

As soluções para adquirir bilhete e jogar o jogo de novo a um novo nível serão descobertas por tentativa e erro por quem anda no terreno, [Moi ici: Como não lembrar o mapa de Weick] por quem encolheu e enquanto tem minutos de oxigénio, vai fazendo experiências.
"The moral of the story is that when you are lost, any old map will do. The story demonstrates very clearly that it is what people do when they are uncertain that is important, rather than what they plan. By analogy, strategic plans function a lot like maps in which the crucial factor is not the map (or strategy) but the fact that you have something which will get you started on a path to the future. Once people begin to act (enactment), they generate tangible outcomes (cues) in some context (social) and that helps them discover (retrospect) what is occurring (ongoing), what needs to be explained (plausibility) and what should be done next (identity enhancement)."
Um bom ponto de partida julgo que passará por "Nichos, co-criação e intimidade à escala". Recordo
Mudar e anichar e Anichar

Claro que haverá gente disposta a enveredar pela race-to-the-bottom e continuar a apostar nos custos mais baixos. Por isso, fiz questão deste postal ser o primeiro do ano.
Por fim, fecho esta série com uns trechos de "there is value in discovery":
"I do think there’s value in being open to change and trying to be comfortable with the uncertainty that transformation brings.[Moi ici: Recordar Gonzales e os que quando se perdem acabam por achar-se]
.
 I think most of the time, even a change that’s largely negative has some positive elements to it, but I don’t see anything necessary about change being positive. It’s a gamble."
Os que são atirados para a aventura... espero que estejam minimamente preparados e com uma mente como a da Victorinox.


domingo, janeiro 19, 2020

Nichos, co-criação e intimidade à escala

"Dalton, Ohio is an unlikely place to find fresh insight into how to thrive in a chaotic 21st-century economy.[Moi ici: Pensem no século XXI, na internet, em toda a parfernália tecnológica e, depois, pensem numa empresa de gente Amish que cumpre os preceitos Amish, que não pode ter electricidade da rede ligada ao negócio, que não pode usar a internet, ... como prosperam?]
...
A company like Pioneer could not have been nearly as successful in a previous era. It is, in its own way, thoroughly modern and embodies what I call the “passion economy”
...
The tools of modern commerce—easy access to sophisticated shipping and logistics, the ability to reach and connect with customers all over the globe—are now available even to the most technologically unsophisticated businessperson. This allows something new: intimacy at scale, in which companies can create highly specialized products that reach customers thinly spread around the world.[Moi ici: Quando leio estas coisas lembro-me sempre da lição alemã que aprendi em 2010 - ""pursue niche strategies that combine product specialization with geographic diversification", "they concentrate their often limited resources on niche market segments that they can dominate worldwide.", e de Conrado Adolfo e o fim da geografia, apesar de Ghemawat]
.
The Pioneer business model would be hard to pitch to a group of investors. The core addressable market is fewer than 25,000 farmers, with decidedly below-average purchasing power. That market cannot be reached through digital ads, TV or radio. The products themselves are big and bulky and need to be shipped from rural Ohio to remote customers across North America. [Moi ici: Sabe quem são os seus clientes? Sabe o que procuram e valorizam? Sabe quais são as suas ansiedades e sonhos? Sabe quais são os seus medos e dores? Sabe o que é sucesso para eles?]
...
Amish farmers are increasingly shifting from bulk commodity grains to higher-value produce, which means they need entirely different kinds of gear. [Moi ici: Interessante esta nota acerca da fuga à comoditização por parte de uma comunidade que não pode usar tecnologia moderna e tudo o que apoia o eficientismo da quantidade] Many Amish are moving north, leaving their historic districts in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Indiana for relatively cheap farmland in the deindustrializing Rust Belt and the prairie out west. This means they are farming colder, rockier ground and need plows that are stronger and more pliable.
...
In today’s economy, the narrowness and complexity of Pioneer’s market is actually a strength. While 25,000 farmers aren’t enough to attract the full attention of the big players like John Deere, Kubota and Caterpillar, they are more than enough to support Pioneer and several other Amish farm equipment makers, all of which are growing healthily.
...
Companies like Pioneer will not replace large firms, which are getting bigger and more dominant in the American economy.
...
But companies like Pioneer offer an alternative path. By focusing obsessively and passionately on an audience that they know uniquely well, and by embracing the tools that will help them serve that audience while rejecting those that won’t, such small businesses are able to thrive in the 21st-century economy."
Quando em "Acerca da rapidez (parte II)" rematamos no final "Talvez os nichos sejam o futuro, talvez a co-criação seja o futuro." estamos a sugerir o mesmo caminho referido no último trecho sublinhado. Focar um nicho e servir esse nicho como ninguém"

Trechos retirados de "An Amish Lesson for Small Business Success"

Acerca da rapidez (parte II)

Parte I.

Recordo o texto de sexta-feira, "Para reflexão", onde comecei por relatar o choque negativo que o calçado está a sofrer. Muitas PME nos mais variados sectores transaccionáveis ganharam espaço no mercado, após o choque chinês dos anos 2000, recorrendo à rapidez, flexibilidade, proximidade como escrevi em "Flexigurança, fiscalidade e competitividade" em Janeiro de 2007. Por estes dias interrogo-me sobre até que ponto essa cartada continua válida, ou se já estará a chegar ao fim do seu prazo de validade. Quando escrevi em Dezembro passado:
"Marrocos, Roménia, Turquia, conseguem competir no campeonato da rapidez e flexibilidade com custos mais baixos"
Percebemos que a carta da "rapidez, flexibilidade, proximidade" foi igualada e ultrapassada porque ainda juntam preços mais baixos. Ministros e académicos podem sorrir e antecipar subidas na produtividade agregada com o encerramento de sectores tradicionais. Contudo, quem dirige empresas nesses sectores tem de pensar em como dar a volta à situação.

Os políticos e quem trabalha na função pública pensam em direitos adquiridos. Nas empresas a vida é a vida, não é nem justa nem injusta. Não há futuro adquirido, ou se seduzem clientes
ou se cai no precipicio.

Contar com o ovo no cu da galinha é a morte do artista.

Lembram-se das críticas aos empresários no tempo do Cavaco? Dinheiros investidos nas empresas e ... nada

Será que vão dizer o mesmo dos milhões metidos no calçado?

É a vida! Os milhões metidos em empresas que estavam ajustadas à estratégia anterior, vão parecer terem sido lançados ao lixo, porque essa estratégia vai deixar de funcionar.

Numa primeira fase as empresas que não vão morrer, para já, vão ter de encolher, vão ter de fazer o que fez Steve Jobs quando regressou à Apple. Depois, vão ter de esperar, trabalhar, para descobrir "the next big thing":
"In the summer of 1998, I got an opportunity to talk with Jobs again. I said, “Steve, this turnaround at Apple has been impressive. But everything we know about the PC business says that Apple cannot really push beyond a small niche position. The network effects are just too strong to upset the Wintel standard. So what are you trying to do in the longer term? What is the strategy?” He did not attack my argument. He didn’t agree with it, either. He just smiled and said, “I am going to wait for the next big thing.” Jobs did not enunciate some simple-minded growth or market share goal. He did not pretend that pushing on various levers would somehow magically restore Apple to market leadership in personal computers. Instead, he was actually focused on the sources of and barriers to success in his industry—recognizing the next window of opportunity, the next set of forces he could harness to his advantage, and then having the quickness and cleverness to pounce on it quickly like a perfect predator. There was no pretense that such windows opened every year or that one could force them open with incentives or management tricks."
É claro que PME não precisam da "the next big thing" com a dimensão da Apple. Talvez os nichos sejam o futuro, talvez a co-criação seja o futuro.

Continua.

sábado, janeiro 18, 2020

Acerca da rapidez (parte I)

No Le Figaro de hoje um artigo interessante "La montée en gamme des marques chinoises". Assim que o comecei a ler recordei o OODA loop de Boyd. Antes de mergulhar no artigo, convido a ler um excerto de "Parte II: OODA loops, a agilidade, o partir pedra e o xadrez," escrito em Janeiro de 2009:
"Procure o melhor jogador de xadrez que conseguir e ofereça-se para jogar com ele sob estas condições:
O seu adversário faz a primeira jogada;
Você faz duas jogadas por cada uma das que ele fizer.
.
De facto, até pode oferecer-se para abdicar de algumas peças, para que o jogo seja mais justo. Descobrirá que, a menos que esteja a jogar com alguém de nível muito elevado, pode desistir de praticamente tudo e ainda assim ganhar. Mantendo os cavalos e talvez uma torre.
.
Esta é uma ilustração expressiva de como o opositor materialmente mais fraco, usando a agilidade, pode ultrapassar uma grande desvantagem numérica.”
.
Please rewind and read again."
Percebem porque fico doente com a falta de fogo no rabo?

Voltemos ao artigo:
"Les marques chinoises ne font plus fuir le consommateur chinois. Au contraire. En à peine dix ans, l'étiquette « made in China », auparavant synonyme de mauvaise qualité et d' arnaque au consommateur, est devenue dans beaucoup de cas symbole de fierté nationale, et même recherchée par un public entièrement digitalisé, avisé, exigeant et difficile à fidéliser. Aujourd'hui le millennial chinois - cible phare des marques à la fois chinoises et internationales - s'attend à ce qu'une marque anticipe ses besoins et rende l'expérience d'achat la plus pratique possible. Véritable témoin de la montée en puissance de la Chine sur la scène internationale, il n'hésite pas à acheter chinois, contrairement à la génération précédente qui peine encore à sauter le pas.
...
Au-delà de la qualité qui est au rendez-vous, les marques chinoises connaissent leur marché et sont plus flexibles et rapides à s'adapter que leurs concurrents étrangers. Elles ont su ajuster leur management, valoriser le branding et segmenter leur offre. Mais surtout, la vraie valeur ajoutée est leur compréhension des enjeux de la digitalisation et de l'e-commerce. Ce sont avant tout des entreprises technologiques comme le sont par exemple Ofo (vélos connectés) ou VIP Kids (éducation en ligne). « Une marque chinoise peut sortir un produit en six mois contre deux ans pour une multinationale. En plus, beaucoup sont nées lors de l'ère digitale, ce qui leur donne un avantage pour innover, notamment dans la vente en ligne » , selon Chris Reitemann, directeur géné-ral Chine pour Ogilvy." 
Continua.

" there is value in discovery"

"a lot of us get stuck in routines, whether it’s way we behave or what we think, and our world shrinks. How important do you think it is to project into new ways of thinking and being – how vital is it to inject change into our lives?.
That’s an interesting question. I do think it’s important to inject change into our lives. I think that a part of living sometimes involves what I think of as revelations – a discovery of new things about the world, new ways of being, new ways to interact both with the world, with others, and new ways to be. I think that’s quite valuable. It’s not true for everyone, I think it’s a dispositional characteristic, but to the extent that changing keeps you intellectually alive and vibrant and also living with a certain amount of uncertainty, even if it’s challenging and difficult, keeps you on the edge in a good way, then transformation, at least on some dimensions, is worthwhile.
.
I wouldn’t say it’s always worthwhile, because sometimes a transformative experience is utterly negative and painful and horrible – and in some ways may make you into a better self, into a better person, but it’s hard to advise someone to go down that path.
.
A terrible accident, for example, can be transformative, declining into Alzheimer’s can be transformative. These are often things that are incredibly painful and difficult, but I still think that they have value, in a way. Maybe what I’m saying is that you can even find value in some of the most negative experiences that we have, partly because they do teach us something: there is value in discovery....
Once we’ve made a decision that will lead to an irreversible change, should we try to make the most of the situation and, for want of a better term, embrace the change?.
Often with transformative experiences, it’s not that we have a choice. Part of the idea is that this experience comes upon us and we discover its character as it affects us. It’s not that you’re going to be able to step back and decide how you’re going to respond to it. You’re going to respond to it in a very raw and primal way, and that’s probably why it’s so life-changing. And sometimes we can be changed in ways that we don’t even notice – the long process of becoming a philosophy professor, for example. Day to day you don’t notice the change, it’s when you look back to years ago, when you embarked on the PhD, you realise that so much about you has changed and you’ve become a new self.
.
That said, I do think there’s value in being open to change and trying to be comfortable with the uncertainty that transformation brings. I do think that’s the right way to approach things, but I don’t think we have a lot of control. A friend of mine said, “your ideas are kind of subversive in a certain way”, and that’s right, part of my point is that we have a lot less control than we think we do. We tell ourselves this story where we look forward, we make an assessment, we have control, we’re in charge, we know what we’re doing. And I’m saying that most of that’s just bullshit.
.
Is change always positive?.
No. No, it certainly doesn’t always have to be positive. I think most of the time, even a change that’s largely negative has some positive elements to it, but I don’t see anything necessary about change being positive. It’s a gamble."
Trechos retirados de "Transformative experience" na revista New Philosopher

sexta-feira, janeiro 17, 2020

Para reflexão

Ontem em conversa com empresário do calçado, tive oportunidade de ouvir um relato sobre a situação do sector que não abona nada de bom para os próximos tempos.

Escreveremos sobre a situação do sector, mas para já só queria referir que a certa altura, para amenizar a conversa, perante as previsões muito negativas que se traduzirão inevitalmente em desemprego, referi que alguns especialistas e ministros ficarão todos contentes com essa perspectiva.

Uns porque isso significará uma subida da produtividade agregada. Lembrem-se da anedota, quanto um fanático do eficientismo chega a CEO age até tornar a empresa uma agência de compra e venda, produção própria reduz a eficiência. Outros porque assim terão a mão de obra que lhes falta ou vai faltar. E referi o exemplo do ministro da Administração Interna que quer contratar 10 mil polícias. 10 mil?!?! Onde os há?!?! Com a emigração, com a demografia, com a actual taxa de desemprego, onde arranjar 10 mil futuros polícias?

Esta manhã apanhei este tweet:





"Sorry" or "Thank you"?

"Business leaders worldwide report that consumers’ expectations of service quality are higher than ever. It is therefore not surprising that consumers’ interactions with service providers are often rife with service failures, or negative service encounters that do not live up to their expectations.
...
Meanwhile, service failures engender formidable consequences to businesses, such as considerable financial loss and negative word of mouth (WOM). For example, U.S. companies lost $1.6 trillion in 2016 from customer switching caused by poor service, and 44% of unsatisfied customers vented their frustrations on social channels.
.
Given the prevalence and dire consequences of service failures, identifying effective recovery methods that are cost efficient and easy to implement is critical to restore consumer satisfaction and increase retention.
...
Specifically, while apology (e.g., “Sorry for the wait”) acknowledges the service failure through the admission of service providers’ fault and accountability, appreciation (e.g., “Thank you for your wait”) acknowledges the service failure by honoring consumers as a benefactor and highlighting their merits and contributions. Drawing from research on consumer self-view, we expect that this shift of focus in the service provider – consumer interaction (from “sorry” to “thank you”) can significantly increase consumer self-esteem. As a result, appreciation should be superior to apology in boosting consumer postrecovery satisfaction.
...
Our findings have substantial implications for service providers regarding how to effectively recover service failures. As an initial step after service failures, service providers need to decide what to say to consumers to redress the failure and restore satisfaction. Despite abundant guidance on whether and when to redress a service failure, researchers have offered little advice on what service providers should say, except for recommending that they apologize for the service failure. Our work suggests that rather than saying “sorry,” service providers should say “thank you,” which is often more effective in enhancing consumer satisfaction. In addition, our studies identify the effectiveness of various symbolic recovery strategies for service failures and thus contribute to better managing business operations.
.
Moreover, this research emphasizes that what service providers ultimately say (“thank you” or “sorry”) should be tailored to certain situational (i.e., timing of the recovery, severity of failure, and presence of utilitarian recovery) and individual (e.g., consumers’ trait narcissism) factors. For example, our results suggest that service providers could monitor the service delivery and redress potential failures in advance. Furthermore, we show that when the service failure is severe, utilitarian recovery or material compensation is a prerequisite for the superior effect of appreciation. We also alert service providers to the importance of consumers’ personality traits, especially their level of narcissism. Our research suggests that service providers should use appreciation in their service recovery for consumers with a higher narcissistic tendency (e.g., those who use social networks more, are younger) but should be aware that appreciation is not necessarily better than apology for those low in narcissism."

Excerpts from "When and Why Saying “Thank You” Is Better Than Saying “Sorry” in Redressing Service Failures: The Role of Self-Esteem" de Yanfen You, Xiaojing Yang , Lili Wang, and Xiaoyan Deng, published by Journal of Marketing.

quinta-feira, janeiro 16, 2020

Demografia e clientes-alvo

No Financial Times Asia de ontem apanhei este artigo:
Depois, sorri ao ler no Wall Street Journal de ontem o artigo "Aging Japanese Flock to Gyms— For Hot Baths and Small Talk":
"Exercise buff Yukie Watabe just about had it when she went to her fitness club and found older women using the bench-press machine as an actual bench. The women were chatting about how to pickle vegetables at home—a worthy subject for the health-conscious, no doubt, but not quite the vibe Ms. Watabe was looking for. “I complained a couple of times to the staff there. But it seemed they prioritized” the elderly clientele, said Ms. Watabe, 46 years old. She quit the club and now jogs with her husband. Japan’s retired people are taking over establishments traditionally associated with youth and sculpted bodies. The gym of the future, as seen in a country where nearly 30% of the population is over 65, features tai chi classes, lengthy soaks in hot baths and plenty of socializing among folks who have no business meetings to rush back to.
...
At Renaissance, only 3% of members were over 60 a quarter-century ago. Today, one in three are in that category and, depending on the location and time of the day, the customers are nearly all elderly, said a spokeswoman.
...
Yoshihiko Kato, a 49-year old factory worker in Tokyo, recently quit his fitness club and switched to Anytime Fitness, a Minnesota-based chain with outlets in Japan. It appeals to a younger crowd with 24-hour service and a focus on fitness machines rather than amenities for relaxing.
...
“I’m going to get old too, so I don’t want to complain,” said Mr. Kato. At his previous club, he said, “I was a bit annoyed at how a group of old people were chatting nonstop.” For gym operators, elderly members have helped tone up the bottom line. Japan’s fitness industry in 2018 posted a record $4.4 billion in revenue, and government figures show more than half of that comes from people over 60, who tend to buy pricier full memberships."
E recordei:

"Quando um ginásio coloca pósteres de moças e moços a caminho de algum concurso de culturismo ou de beleza, está a apostar e a dizer ao mercado quem são os seus alvos e, ao mesmo tempo está a dizer aos seniores: nós não somos para vocês.
.
Sabem o quanto gosto de associar biologia e economia. Por isso, vejo este desenvolvimento como: os nutrientes existem (os seniores e os gestores que pensam no futuro do SNS) e as espécies existentes (ginásios) não os consomem. A Natureza tem horror ao desperdício. Por isso, cria novas espécies que aproveitam esses nutrientes (recordar que a evolução natural é fugir de restrições)"


"E interrogo-me porque é que nunca vi um ginásio dedicado explicitamente ao sector sénior?
.
Têm dimensão, têm tempo livre, têm poder de compra, têm um trabalho concreto por realizar (recuperar/manter e prolongar qualidade de vida, autonomia, autoestima, ...)"



Outras cativações

Ontem circulava na A29 enquanto ouvia o noticiário das 7 da manhã na Antena 1. A certa altura ouvi o presidente Marcelo em Moçambique a elogiar o superavit orçamental português. Depois, liguei o iPad ao sistema do carro e comecei a ouvir uma série de artigos via Pocket. Um deles foi, "Why Airlines Want to Make You Suffer". A certa altura fixei:
"This fall, JetBlue airline finally threw in the towel. For years, the company was among the last holdouts in the face of an industry trend toward smaller seats, higher fees, and other forms of unpleasantness. JetBlue distinguished itself by providing decent, fee-free service for everyone, an approach that seemed to be working: passengers liked the airline, and it made a consistent profit."
E comecei a pensar... a doença anglo-saxónica é terrível! E recordei o artigo de Terça-feira no Público sobre o descalabro da Boeing, "O dilema moral da trágica liderança na Boeing":
"Mais de 150 páginas de mensagens entregues ao Congresso dos EUA revelam como toda a cadeia de comando tinha fortes preocupações com a contenção de custos. Numa indústria que fabrica produtos complexos, como os aviões actuais de passageiros, uma gestão focada no custo pode ter um preço elevado.
E fiz a ligação com as cativações...

Qual a diferença entre a loucura da Boeing e as cativações na Saúde, na Educação, nos Transportes, na Justiça, ...?

Costa & Centeno = Dennis Muilenburg.
Marcelo talvez venha a ser considerado o David L. Calhoun.

quarta-feira, janeiro 15, 2020

Context, interested parties and risks (part III)

Part I and Part II.

The following excerpt is all about context and risks:
"Many of the world’s problems stem from the false belief that we can accurately predict the future.
...
We do not know what the future will hold. But we must make decisions anyway. So we crave certainties which cannot exist and invent knowledge we cannot have. But humans are successful because they have adapted to an environment that they understand only imperfectly."

Excerpt from "How to Make Decisions for an Unknowable Future"

"a resource not as a substance or thing, but rather as an abstraction"

"although operand resources often contribute to the cocreation of value, without the application of operant resources, such as knowledge, skills, and competences, value cocreation does not occur.
.
An important part of the service-centered view is to understand that the nature of resources is contextual. In other words, resources are not, they become. This means that actors’ knowledge and skills—that is, other resources—determine the resourceness of resources.
.
Consider, for example, fire: The resourceness of fire only became available for humans once the knowledge and skills needed to control and apply fire for specific purposes were developed. Hence, potential resources become resources when appraised and acted on through integration with other potential resources.
...
“Value is cocreated by multiple actors, always including the beneficiary”) and the nature of value outcomes and their determination (Axiom 4, “Value is always uniquely and phenomenologically determined by the beneficiary”)."
Li isto e fiz logo a ponte para a importância da formação dos comerciais sobre como comunicar, ou sobre como fazer emergir a "resourceness" na vida dos clientes.
"a resource not as a substance or thing, but rather as an abstraction that describes the function that a substance or idea contributes to achieve a desired end. Hence, to integrate resources, resource-integrating actors must first be able to recognize the resourceness of the potential resources available to him/her. Therefore, the process of affording potential resources their resourceness becomes a prerequisite for resource integration and value cocreation. For this reason, a deeper understanding of  resources is critical for the further development of SD logic and its service ecosystems perspective.
...
resourceness is not an intrinsic characteristic of a resource, but is a socially constructed and institutionalized phenomenon"
Trechos retirados da tese de doutoramento "The evolution of markets – A service ecosystems perspective" de Kaisa Koskela-Huotari.

terça-feira, janeiro 14, 2020

Dez anos de exportações - uma perspectiva


Olhar assim para os números acerca da evolução das exportações em 10 anos provoca surpresas, positivas e negativas.

Sectores sexy nos media (e isto não tem nada a ver com o calçado) com crescimento mais baixos, e sectores que passam fora do radar dos títulos com desempenhos notáveis.


Ter ou não ter fogo no rabo

Muitas vezes... demasiadas vezes, desanimo com aquilo a que chamo falta de fogo no rabo nas empresas (uma expressão que escrevi pela primeira vez aqui no blogue em Janeirto de 2008, mas que recordo ter começado a usar nas empresas por volta de 2003). Por exemplo, recordar "A falta de fogo no rabo".

Ou porque se formulam iniciativas para implementar estratégias para criar um futuro melhor, ou porque se desenham projectos para ultrapassar problemas operacionais, desafios críticos, desafios importantes, desafios que gritam por atenção e que vão progredindo a velocidade de caracol, e que vão repousando nos congeladores empresariais. Desafios sem atenção da gestão de topo, desafios sem chefe de projecto, sem equipa, sem compromisso de datas, sem especificações de saída, sem recursos, sem ...

Depois, apanha-se algo deste calibre:


Como é que isto pode medrar neste ambiente?

segunda-feira, janeiro 13, 2020

Curiosidade do dia

Da próxima vez que lerem uma proposta para que o governo de turno assuma os riscos do investimento em projectos com tecnologias imaturas lembrem-se deste exemplo "A $1 Billion Solar Plant Was Obsolete Before It Ever Went Online"

"the power of small gestures"

“In an era of cutthroat competition, deep-seated cynicism, and the digital disruption of everything, who wants to make big bets on the power of small gestures? Not very many organizations, it seems,
...
Work increasingly isn’t, or isn’t only, a matter of producing things, but of supplying your energies, physical and emotional, in the service of others. It isn’t what you make, but how your display of feelings makes others feel.
...
I’m convinced that “emotional labor” will become a more important job of companies that win big in the future, and that’s a phenomenon that makes me smile.
...
Will you follow dogma, or will you be original?”; “Will you wilt under criticism, or will you follow your convictions?”; “Will you play it safe, or will you be a little bit swashbuckling?
...
Will you be clever at the expense of others, or will you be kind?”
Trechos retirados de “Simply Brilliant: How Great Organizations Do Ordinary Things in Extraordinary Ways” de  William C. Taylor.

Context, interested parties and risks (part II)

Part I.

ISO 9001:2015 clause 4.1 is about understanding the context of an organization.

What external and internal issues are relevant to the organization’s purpose and strategic direction?  What external and internal issues can affect, either positively or negatively, the organization’s ability to achieve the intended results of its quality management system (QMS).

We saw in Part I that intended results of a QMS is something that is a function of who are chosen as the relevant interested parties. So, we cannot expect to determine internal and external issues correctly without having in mind who are relevant interested parties and what are their relevant needs and expectations.

One of these mornings I read:
"Le scénario se répète pour la quatrième année consécutive. Les défaillances d'entreprises vont continuer d'augmenter en 2020 à l'échelle mon-diale
...
Un zoom géographique montre une prédominance de l'Asie dans les faillites, avec la Chine en première ligne
...
Si la France s'en sort mieux que ses voisins européens, 2020 devrait marquer un tournant. C'est la première année depuis 2016 que les défaillances ne baissent pas. Elles devraient stagner, contre une hausse de 3 % en Allemagne et au Royaume-Uni, de 4 % en Italie et de 5 % en Espagne."
And at another one I read:

And then I thought of a number of companies I work or worked with that depend heavily on sales to the German market.

What have I mentally done?

I selected an external event that can't be controlled by and organization and related it to an internal issue a particular organization:

Because of the strategic choices of the organization - bet on export to demanding German customers - one can say that both the external event and the internal issue have a negative connotation.

What will probably happen when we join the external event with that internal vulnerability? We determine a negative risk!

That risk will affect needs and expectations of a relevant interested party: the capital owners of the organization

One can also imagine internal events that can't be controlled by and organization:

Resignation of a critical worker will undermine our ability to respond to development requests, which will undermine our ability to capitalize on a boom in demand for co-created solutions.

In this case we have a positive external trend in motion that clashes with an internal negative event that the organization's top management cannot control.



The product of that clash is another risk - undermining of our ability to capitalize on a boom in demand for co-created solutions.

That risk will affect needs and expectations of different relevant interested parties: the capital owners of the organization and the potential customers searching for competent suppliers of co-created solutions.

These two examples illustrate the exercise I try to do with organizations to determine context-based risks and opportunities, using interested parties needs and expectations as a factor in assessing the importance of risk or opportunity.

What sources do I bring to the table to determine external issues? Normally, I use Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental analysis (PESTLE) to trigger the brainstorming of external issues.
Those external issues start as neutral issues. Thn they are later analyzed under the light of strategic orientation. Then they can gain a positive or negative connotation. If the connotation is positive I call them Opportunities, if it is negative I call them Threats.

When determining internal issues I ask people things like:
  • What issues keep appearing in your internal meetings and reports?
  • What issues keep appearing about overall performance of the organization, persons, resources, governance, ...?
Those internal issues start as neutral issues. They are later analyzed in the light of strategic orientation. Then they can gain a positive or negative connotation. If the connotation is positive I call them Strengths, if it is negative I call them Weaknesses.
So, this way we developed the classic SWOT matrix. But in the examples above what we have done was about giving a dynamic twist to the SWOT matrix, something that some call a TOWS matrix:

Each combination is a possible risk or opportunity.

domingo, janeiro 12, 2020

Mongo é o regresso à diversidade, à variedade.

O século XX e Metropolis.
O século XX e Magnitogorsk.
O século XX e Levittown.
O século XX e o grande centrão, o plancton.

Mongo é o oposto, Mongo é o regresso à diversidade, à variedade.

Este artigo é uma metáfora acerca desse regresso:
"According to researcher Ana Mikadze-Chikvaidze, Georgia may be the homeland of cheese ... archaeological evidence hinting that Georgians thousands of years ago may have been the first-known humans to make cheese. Over time, different regions of Georgia developed distinct techniques resulting in a veritable tapestry of cheese varieties.
.
Yet, many Georgians today have little knowledge of this history or the country’s unique cheeses due to 70 years spent under an oppressive Soviet-planned economy that limited which cheeses could be produced for general consumption and therefore forced artisanal cheesemaking underground.
...
Under the Soviet system between 1921 and 1991, economic planners wanted to create large quantities of Georgian cheese quickly to help feed the people of the USSR. Small-scale, often aged varietals, which took considerable time and effort to produce, didn’t fit these plans, and instead, only four types of simpler Georgian cheeses were made in bulk: imeruli, sulguni, karkhunli (which literally translates to “factory cheese”) and guda (completely unrelated to Dutch gouda).
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The artisanal cheeses were forced underground likely because creating goods outside the Soviet system was frowned upon and many cheesemakers were afraid of being punished for it. And after seven decades in a system where only four types of cheese were readily available, most Georgians today are completely unaware that the country is home to dozens of other cheeses."

Trechos retirados de "The woman saving Georgia's lost cheeses"

Motivação e dinheiro

"The science behind work satisfaction.
Consider a study by Behavioral Economist Dan Ariely (and Lemonade’s Chief Behavioral Officer), where he sent factory workers one of three emails: The first promised workers a free pizza if they get all of their work done, the second promised a rare compliment from their boss, and the last – a cash bonus.
.
Which did the best job of motivating employees to get their work done?
.
If you thought the cash bonus, you thought wrong. The pizza and thank you note were the strongest motivators.
.
While monetary incentives are usually attributed to getting workers’ feet in the door in the first place, cash hardly contributes to an employee’s engagement at work:
...
Creating a positive, caring workforce makes for more engaged team members, meaningful workplace relationships, and higher profits for organizations.
.
Companies should set aside cash bonuses, and invest in practices that make employees feel cared for. And a pizza party every once in a while wouldn’t hurt either."
Não é nada incomum a liderança das empresas, à medida que elas crescem, estar cega quanto à falta de motivação dos trabalhadores.

Trechos retirados de "The Case for a Caring Work Culture"

sábado, janeiro 11, 2020

O contexto que nos rodeia

Há dias vi uma peça criada pela RTP sobre as previsões para a economia portuguesa em 2020. Na altura fiquei embasbacado ao ver que falavam num crescimento de 2% do PIB. O orçamento de estado para 2020 prevê 1,9%.
"Le scénario se répète pour la quatrième année consécutive. Les défaillances d'en-treprises vont continuer d'augmenter en 2020 à l'échelle mon-diale, prévoit le leader de l'assurance-crédit Euler Flermes dans son baromètre annuel publié jeudi. Certes à un rythme moins soutenu - la hausse anticipée est de 6 %, après 9 % l'an dernier -, mais plus global. Sur les 44 pays couverts par l'étude - qui représentent 87 % du PEB mondial - quatre sur cinq vont subir une degradation. La raison principale tient « au ralentissement de la croissance mondiale, déjà observé en 2019 et l'effet de la guerre commerciale », explique Maxime Lemerle, directeur de la recherche sectorielle. « Les entreprises sont confrontées à une baisse de la demande et à plus de compétition qui se ressent sur leurs marges, en particulier dans les secteurs industriels », poursuit-il.
...
Un zoom géographique montre une prédominance de l'Asie dans les faillites, avec la Chine en première ligne
...
Si la France s'en sort mieux que ses voisins européens, 2020 devrait marquer un tournant. C'est la première année depuis 2016 que les défaillances ne baissent pas. Elles devraient stagner, contre une hausse de 3 % en Allemagne et au Royaume-Uni, de 4 % en Italie et de 5 % en Espagne."
Esta semana tive oportunidade de ver em primeira mão o impacte da travagem alemã. Empresas portuguesas sem encomendas, aumento tremendo dos prazos de recebimento entre fornecedores e subcontratados portugueses.

Estar atento ao contexto (oportunidades e ameaças) para não contar com o ovo no cú da galinha.

Trechos retirados de "Les défaillances d'entreprises dans le monde vont continuer à se multiplier en 2020" publicado no Le Figaro de ontem.

Exportações YTD - tendências


Olhando para a minha paleta do acumulado das exportações do ano passado até Novembro:

  • Mobiliário a crescer
  • Metalomecânica continua recuperar
  • Aeronaves e Óptica continuam a crescer a taxas muito, muito altas
  • Agricultura continua a crescer
  • Têxtil e calçado continuam com a evolução negativa. Calçado reforçou a tendência negativa face à 1 ano
  • Exportações de produtos farmacêuticos a evoluir a bom ritmo
  • Impressionante o andamento dos automóveis. Anos e anos a crescer a ritmos alucinantes.




sexta-feira, janeiro 10, 2020

O paradoxo dos peritos

“The more credentials somebody has, the more assumptions they make, the less they test them, the more likely they are to fail”
Um tema clássico neste blogue o paradoxo dos peritos.
Expertise is powerful—until it gets in the way of innovation. One of the sobering lessons of the great transformations in business, leadership, and society in the last few decades is that the people and organizations with the most experience, knowledge, and resources in a particular field are often the last ones to see and seize opportunities for something dramatically new.
...
All too often, what we know limits what we can imagine.
...
Too many companies and leaders, often the best companies and the most successful leaders, struggle with what she calls the “paradox of expertise”—the frustrating reality that the more deeply immersed you are in a market, a product category, or a technology, the harder it becomes to open your mind to new business models that may reshape that market or promising ways to leapfrog that technology. Past results may not be the enemy of subsequent breakthroughs, but they can constrain the capacity to grasp the future.
.
“When it comes to innovation,” she argues, “the same hard-won experience, best practices, and processes that are the cornerstones of an organization’s success may be more like millstones that threaten to sink it. Said another way, the weight of what we know, especially what we collectively ‘know,’ kills innovation. . . . Why can knowledge and experience be so lethal to innovation? Because when we become expert, we often trade our ‘what if’ flights of fancy for the grounded reality of ‘what is.’” ”
Recordo sempre:

"nós não vemos através dos nossos olhos mas através das nossas experiências", e "as nossas experiências produzem modelos mentais", modelos mentais que nos ajudam a perceber e a actuar sobre a realidade. A experiência é uma vantagem até... deixar de ser.
.
E quando é que a experiência deixa de ser uma vantagem?
.
Quando a realidade muda!"

Trechos retirados de “Simply Brilliant: How Great Organizations Do Ordinary Things in Extraordinary Ways” de  William C. Taylor.

Azeite e Trás-Os-Montes

Este blogue acompanha o tema do azeite há alguns anos. Apresento no fim uma lista não exaustiva de postais sobre a produção e comercialização de azeite.

No ano passado comecei a ter consciência plena dos impactes ambientais da produção e colheita no olival superintensivo alentejano. Assim, em Junho de 2019, sem planear, simplesmente aconteceu o que relato em "E sem intenção, e sem querer, apareceu na minha mente a decisão de pôr de lado o azeite alentejano".

No Sábado passado fui às compras ao mesmo sítio, ao mesmo corredor, onde tinha tido dificuldade de encontrar um azeite expressamente transmontano, seis meses antes (situação que descrevo na hiperligação anterior), e tive uma forte surpresa. No dia seguinte escrevi no Twitter:

Entretanto, na passada terça-feira fui a um supermercado da rede Coviran, especialista em verduras, perto de minha casa, e não resisti a trazer para experimentar, apesar da garrafa de plástico:
Entretanto, ontem ao final da tarde tive oportunidade de ler "Do market prices correspond with consumer demands? Combining market valuation and consumer utility for extra virgin olive oil quality attributes in a traditional producing country" de Petjon Ballco e Azucena Gracia, publicado por Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services.
"At the beginning of the 21st century, the law of demand in food production supplanted the law of supply. [Moi ici: Um tema interessante. O mundo muda quando a oferta é maior do que a procura, aquilo a que desde 2010 chamo "bolha azeiteira", nessa altura há que fugir da ideia de que se vende uma commodity] Agricultural organisations and the agri-food industry must adapt to consumers’ highly diversified expectations. In addition, consumers expect to be fully informed about the products they purchase. They demand healthy products that taste good and take into consideration social, ethical and environmental issues in terms of production practices and traditional production methods. Under this framework, the agro-food sector must continually seek strategic orientations to differentiate products, not only in the sense of increasing production but rather towards diversifying food supply by promoting attributes that are valued by consumers. Olive oil is an example of a product where greater differentiation has been associated with increased production and consumption worldwide.
...
preferences between consumers from the traditionally producing countries and those from the emerging markets have significantly changed. While in non-producing countries the consumption of olive oil has increased enormously from low levels, Mediterranean countries, where consumption was relatively high, are now facing a shift towards the consumption of higher quality olive oils and, more specifically, extra virgin olive oils (EVOOs). [Moi ici: O artigo cita 21 artigos publicados nos últimos 5 anos sobre preferências de consumo de azeite]
...
the results from the marginal WTP estimates indicated that, on average, consumers were willing to pay an additional price premium of 2.13€/L for an EVOO that carried the PDO certification compared to one without this indication. In the same way, participants were willing to pay an additional premium of 1.51€/L for an EVOO that was produced in the county, and 1.27€/L for an EVOO produced in the region relative to an EVOO from the rest of Spain. [Moi ici: O estudo foi feito em Saragoça]
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The positive premium that the indication of olive variety had on price provides evidence that the EVOO sector has indeed increased in differentiation. Consumers’ knowledge has also increased, because depending on the olive variety (Arbequina, Picual, Hojiblanca) consumers can form expectations regarding the taste of the EVOO (i.e., fruity, pungent, etc.). This result is in line with Cabrera et al. (2015) who illustrated the importance given to the olive variety in Spain. In terms of container materials, results show that a plastic container was valued negatively in comparison to a glass container, which received a premium price.
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Although there were relatively few organic olive oils in the Spanish market, results showed that this certification was an important quality cue that positively affected EVOO market prices.
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Unexpectedly, the European PDO quality certification did not affect the market prices of EVOOs in Spain. This result is in line with previous research by Carbone et al. (2018) in Italy who found negative effects on price for olive oils with PDO, and Cabrera et al., 2015 in Spain who found no influence on price for EVOOs with PDO. Contrary to the PDO quality certification, the presence of production origin on the label had a positive influence on EVOO prices. As extensively shown by other authors, the origin of production is one of the most important aspects for many consumers of EVOOs
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while we maintain that PDO certification is an important attribute that helps consumers differentiate the quality of an EVOO, at a regional level where the local producers are well known, this attribute does not add any value to the prices of EVOOs in the market. This result is in line with Cabrera et al. (2015) for EVOO in Spain, who showed that the local origin of production label had positive effects on prices in comparison to PDO certification which did not affect the price. In addition, this result was also highlighted by Marcoz et al. (2016), who suggested that PDO quality certification has higher value the further the consumer is from the area of production.
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Consumer behavior for a typical product, such as an EVOO that is consumed on a regular basis, appears to be stable but, in reality, faces constant changes in differentiation. The most influential attributes in terms of utility and WTP estimates found were the origin of production (i.e., county and region) for EVOOs, and PDO quality certification. In the market, the attributes that influenced EVOO prices were labels that indicate the olive variety, organic certification, origin of production, sold in glass containers and in establishments with a high variety of leading brands.
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those producers who want to gain competitive advantages, should not be satisfied by just offering products to the market, but should strive to create value for each customer specifically.The more distinctive and inimitable a product is, the more likely the company is to gain loyal customers. Furthermore, consumer awareness about olive variety and clear identification of production origin should encourage producers to develop new products based on single olive varieties characterized by different sensory attributes."
Interessante a repetida referência a: "production methods; production processes; sustainability; e organic production"