Há dias no WSJ apanhei este artigo, "The Biden-Trump Economy of Nostalgia". Julgo que há aqui algo em torno de temas que temos abordado aqui no blogue:
"America's elderly presidential candidates want to return the country to a fantasy mid-20th-century past. [Moi ici: Recordo a reflexão acerca do peso da indústria transformadora no PIB] Their mantra is to restore manufacturing. But neither understands modern manufacturing or how America can forge a dynamic and secure future.
The Cato Institute has reported that-contrary to conventional belief-U.S. manufacturing accounts for a larger share of global output than Japan, Germany, South Korea and India combined. America's productivity is far ahead, too. In 2019, the value added by the average American manufacturing worker was $141,000, exceeding second-place South Korea by more than $44,000 a worker and China by more than $120,000. [Moi ici: Recordo o gráfico sobre Taiwan]
Rather than prepare the U.S. for the challenges of the 2lst century, they want to bring back the 20th.
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America's success is thanks to its ability to move from low-tech, less productive sectors to higher-value ones such as computers, pharmaceuticals, medical and scientific instruments, aerospace, and electrical machinery. [Moi ici: Basta pesquisar aqui no blogue "Flying Geese"] The U.S. even understates its performance because our definition of manufacturing is as old as our presidential candidates. The late George Shultz said Washington could solve a political problem by treating software as a manufactured good. Software now accounts for about half the value of a new car. Politicians who see manufacturing only as bending metal are out of touch.
The Biden-Trump mindset ignores the links between productivity, growth and higher incomes. The 21st-century economy, including modern manufacturing, will depend on innovation in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and general-purpose technologies.
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The Biden-Trump economy of nostalgia won't lead to higher wages. Research by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows that manufacturing workers earn less than the average private-sector worker. Manufacturing workers in higher-tech sectors, with greater productivity, fare better. These jobs benefit from trade, but Messrs. Biden and Trump fail to understand how a modern trade agenda can serve America's interests and promote our values."
Ninguém faz contas. É triste mas é a realidade crua e dura. A indústria do século XX não tem produtividade suficiente para suportar os salários do século XXI, "Pay is ultimately tied to productivity".
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