Explicar o mais importante

"Predating Raymond Vernon's work (Vernon, 1966) on the product cycle theory by several decades, Kaname Akamatsu identified two empirical regularities of industrial development (Akamatsu, 1935, 1937).' One is a time-series pattern of a given industry, shifting from imports to import-substitution for the domestic market, and exports (Figure 1, Panel A). The other is a time-series production pattern across industries, in which a series of industries appear, prosper, then decline and finally disappear one after another (Figure 1, Panel B). Because these patterns reflect wild geese flying in ranks, they are called flying geese patterns of industrial development and are referred to extensively in explaining the production patterns of the East and Southeast Asian countries.

Recordo a primeira vez que mencionei os Flying Geese aqui no blogue - "why some countries grow faster than others" (parte II). 

Recordo outro postal sobre os Flying Geese e a evolução dos sectores industriais - The "flying geese" model, ou deixem as empresas morrer!!!

"An FG analogy came originally from Akamatsu's empirical findings of the sequential development pattern of imports (M) leading to domestic production (P) and then to exports (X). The sequence involved thus goes beyond a process of import substitution under protection (i.e., infant industry protection) and ultimately leads to exporting.

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It should be noted, however, that in this age of globalization multinationals (MNCs) can now create new export industries instantly via foreign direct investment (FDI) in the developing host countries (i.e., FDI → P → X) that is, gradual industry building under protection (MPX) is replaced by instant industry building via FDI. [Moi ici: Recordo postais sobre a importância do investimento directo estrangeiro como A receita irlandesa, como Tamanho, produtividade e a receita irlandesa]

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A second FG pattern is a sequence of structural change in industrial development, not only in the order of 'capital goods following consumer goods', but also 'in the progression from crude and simple goods to complex and refined goods'."

Trecho inicial e figura retirados de "Industrial Upgrading in a Multiple-cone HeckscherOhlin Model: The Flying Geese Patterns of Industrial Development" de Kozo Kiyota e publicado por Review of Development Economics, 18(1), 177-193, 2014.

Trechos finais retirados de "The (Japan-Born) 'Flying-Geese' Theory of Economic Development Revisited - and Reformulated from a Structuralist Perspective" de Terutomo Ozawa e publicado por Global Policy Volume 2 . Issue 3 . October 2011.

Recordo de ontem o final deste postal - Heterogeneidade e produtividade: Julgo que ajuda a explicar o mais importante, o salto de produtividade que falta a Portugal.

Por exemplo, este artigo de ontem "Discoteca Amália fecha portas após 30 anos de vendas de CDs e vinis". Negócios que não conseguem aumentar o seu valor acrescentado, com o tempo, deixam de poder pagar salários competitivos, daí a falta de pessoal, e deixam de poder pagar rendas, ou matérias-primas de qualidade. Por isso, este postal A brutal realidade de uma foto.