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Ontem, Roger Martin publicou um artigo, "Going on the Offensive with Creative Strategy", que está relacionado com o tema:
"My message was that in modern business, creatives are dooming themselves to high failure rates by accepting the dominant premise of modern business, which is that by objectively analyzing the past, you can predict the future....In business, all ideas are subjected to the premise that we should only take an action for which data analysis confirms will garner the necessary revenues in the future to justify the investment required by the action. Analytics are taught that their job is to enforce this premise strictly and pervasively — any deviation is reprehensible and dangerous....The problem is that analytics are taught a fundamental logical fallacy. To make decisions, they are taught to use a methodology that implicitly assumes that the future will be identical to the past while we definitively know that in business, the future is rarely identical to the past. But analytics enforce a methodology that assumes it is.That is the single biggest problem in the modern practice of management....The object of strategy is an integrated set of choices that compels desired customer action. But companies do not control customers: they will do whatever they wish. Analyzing past data to forecast the future behavior of people you don't control is a fantasy exercise....If you are a creative, understand that you live in a business world completely dominated by analytics. It is an era - that took shape about fifty years and still dominants today — on which we will look back fifty years from now and wonder what were we thinking? And what on earth were we teaching?It will probably take another twenty years for the current dominant business premise to be seen as utterly ridiculous."
O conceito de "optimismo não documentado" é a decisão de agir com convicção mesmo sem garantias estatísticas. É o risco de investir num caminho novo, sem “benchmarks”, baseado em algo que ainda não foi medido, mas que faz sentido. Ou como Martin escreve:
“Analyzing past data to forecast the future behavior of people you don't control is a fantasy exercise.”
E, como diria Rory, é justamente nas decisões que não podem ser sustentadas por dados históricos — porque criam o futuro em vez de o prolongar — que reside a verdadeira inovação. O que por sua vez se relaciona com a opinião de Phil Mullan acerca dos governos e do seu medo acerca da inovação verdadeira. BTW, Seth Godin também não é meigo:
"Certainty is another word for stalling."
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