Torrar dinheiro de contribuintes

E quando o empreendedor é o estado... a decidir com o dinheiro dos bolsos dos contribuintes... estão a ver o perigo?

"Num país que dispõe já de 7.000 MW de potências intermitentes com FIT para um consumo de apenas 3.900 MW no vazio, o hidrogénio é a nova desculpa para se instalarem mais 2.000 MW de novas potências solares intermitentes com FIT. É o mundo ao contrário!

Em vez de se estancar o problema não atribuindo mais FIT a potências intermitentes, e fazendo com que o mercado se ajuste às disponibilidades de eletricidade aos melhores preços, promovem-se ainda mais potencias intermitentes com FIT para se resolver o problema das FIT através do hidrogénio.

...

Mesmo não estando disponível nenhuma tecnologia competitiva para produzir hidrogénio através da eletrólise da água, o documento que esteve em consulta pública aponta desde já para um investimento de 7.000 milhões de euros (!!!), e numa primeira fase este hidrogénio destinar-se-á exclusivamente ao mercado interno." (fonte)

Pois:

“One of us was shown a paper written by a well-known macroeconomist with considerable experience in central banks and finance ministries. The model showed that an inflation objective would be met, given the model, if the central bank announced today what interest rates would be at different dates for several years ahead. 25 The author of the paper was asked ‘So what insight do we gain from this model?’ The answer was that the numbers derived from the model should be the policy. That answer begins to make sense only if the economist believed that his model described ‘the world as it really is’. But a small-world model does not do that; its value lies in framing a problem to provide insights into the large-world problem facing the policy-maker and not in the pretence that it can provide precise quantitative guidance. You cannot derive a probability or a forecast or a policy recommendation from a model; the probability is meaningful, the forecast accurate or the policy recommendation well founded only within the context of the model .

Other disciplines seem more alive to this issue. The bridge builder or the aeronautics engineer, dealing with a much more firmly established body of knowledge, will wisely be sceptical of a quantitative answer which is not consistent with his or her prior experience. And our own experience in economics is that the most common explanation of a surprising result is that someone has made an “error. In finance, economics and business, models never describe ‘the world as it really is’. Informed judgement will always be required in understanding and interpreting the output of a model and in using it in any large-world situation.”

Trechos retirados de “Radical Uncertainty” de John Kay e Mervyn King

Só escapa a agricultura

Eis o conjunto de sectores económicos que acompanho há vários anos e que uso para perceber como vão as PME e alguns incumbentes grandes.

Impressionante a evolução das exportações de peixe, -30% (não costumo incluir na tabela que analiso).

Um retrato que ilustra um novo "ano de 2009"

Promotor da concorrência imperfeita, dos monopólios informais e das rendas pornográficas

Em Julho de 2011 escrevi aqui:

"Os mercados não se regem por leis imortais, imutáveis, talhadas na pedra. Os mercados não existem, emergem, vão emergindo da relação entre os intervenientes. Mentes conservadoras podem crer que os mercados são como os reagentes de uma reacção química e que o tempo não os influencia, por mais vezes que se repita a experiência. Tolos!!! Os mercados são seres vivos que aprendem e desaprendem não podendo ser encarcerados numa lógica newtoniana"

Ontem, durante a caminhada matinal encontrei:

"And although Newtonian mechanics is not a description of ‘the world as it really is’, it is extremely useful in a wide variety of situations. It makes sense to live our lives under the assumption that physical laws hold and do not change, but it does not make sense to live our lives under the assumption that the world of human affairs is stationary."

Em Dezembro passado escrevi:

"Estão a ver aqueles que acreditam que os académicos, ou os políticos sabem quais as decisões a tomar para gerir uma empresa?

...

O salto sem rede! O abandono da navegação de cabotagem! Nadar na zona sem pé! Apostar no optimismo não documentado. Ah! "Following the bliss"."

Na mesma caminhada matinal encontrei:

"Although most profit opportunities have been taken, it is those that have not been taken which provide rewards to entrepreneurs and which drive innovation in technology and business practice. Paradoxically, the desire of the Chicago School to treat the economy as if markets were perfectly competitive [Moi ici: Promotor da concorrência imperfeita, dos monopólios informais e das rendas pornográficas] left it blind to the earlier Chicago insight which emphasised the capacity for innovation arising from the search for profit in an uncertain and constantly changing environment. The innovative success of a market economy does not result from individuals or firms trying to ‘optimise’ but from their attempts by trial and error to navigate a world of radical uncertainty. In practice, successful people work out how to cope with and manage uncertainty, not how to optimise."

Trechos retirados de “Radical Uncertainty” de John Kay e Mervyn King

Relevance, not quantity

You don't need to have a huge list of internal and external issues in the context analysis of your quality management system. You need to have a list of truly relevant issues. That is how ISO 9001:2015 uses the word determine, not identify.

Example from "Health and safety, environment and quality audits: a risk-based approach" from Stephen Asbury.

"stand for something"

Mais uma mensagem de Seth Godin:

"Most of the brands we truly care about stand for something. And the thing they stand for is unlikely to be, “whatever you want, we have it.” It’s also unlikely to be, “you can choose anyone and we’re anyone.”

.

A meaningful specific can’t possibly please everyone. That’s the deal."

E a sua empresa... recorde Justin Bieber.

 

Trecho retirado de "“It might not be for you”" 

Pivoting

Um artigo sobre aquilo que é apanágio das organizações que vivem do seu esforço e não podem contar com amigos em lugares de poder para lhes facilitar a vida, "How Businesses Have Successfully Pivoted During the Pandemic":

"The reality of how companies are dealing with the crisis and preparing for the recovery tells a very different story, one of pivoting to business models conducive to short-term survival along with long-term resilience and growth. Pivoting is a lateral move that creates enough value for the customer and the firm to share."

An uncomfortable feeling

When you are auditing how an organization has treated its context analysis according to ISO 9001:2015,  you may conclude that the organization has answered to all requeriments and yet... feel some how uncomfortable with the exercise. An organization may tick all requirements and yet miss the most important.

I found this passage that I think applies to this feeling:

"As you will see, auditing is concerned with seeking to provide a level of confirmation (or assurance) that an organization has addressed reasonably foreseeable significant risks to its operations and to the achievement of its objectives with a suitable framework (or series of interconnected frameworks) for internal control.

...

Along with providing assurance for the present, auditing should also provide a future focused view of the suitability of this control framework(s) for the changing business environments of the months and years ahead. Information about the future is generally much more valuable to managers than information about the present or the past."

Sometimes it is not easy to communicate that feeling to the organization. You are an auditor not a consultant, and it is not easy to judge the strategic thinking skills of a top management team. 

Sometimes those that are not immersed in a specific situation, that don't live it daily are more aware of the background trends.

 

Passage from "Health and safety, environment and quality audits: a risk-based approach" from Stephen Asbury.

 

Não esqueçam dos aumentos da função pública para o ano

Quando a nossa visão pessimista 

é ultrapassada pelas previsões de outros mais institucionais:

O tal slogan parvo, o mais parvo de sempre.

Se o PIB cair 17% e se a despesa do estado é rígida, e se o estado já consumia 50% do PIB em 2019, como fica o peso do estado no PIB? Como fica o défice? Não esqueçam dos aumentos da função pública para o ano.

Comentadores e prognósticos

Uma destas noites estava a jantar e por azar a televisão estava ligada na RTP1. Então, aparece um comentador que eu julgava já estar reformado, Nicolau Santos.

Foi dele que me lembrei esta manhã ao ler:

"Few readers will be surprised that Tetlock learnt from his initial work that the forecasters in his sample were not very good; little better than a chimpanzee throwing darts. What is, perhaps, most surprising is that he found that the principal factor differentiating the good from the bad was how well known the forecaster was. The more prominent the individual concerned, the more often the forecaster is reported by the media, the more frequently consulted by politicians and business leaders, the less credence should be placed on that individual’s prognostications.

...

We both have the experience of dealing with researchers for radio and television programmes: if you profess an opinion that is unambiguous and – for preference – extreme, a car will be on its way to take you to the studio; if you suggest that the issue is complicated, they will thank you for your advice and offer to ring you back. They rarely do. People understandably like clear opinions but the truth is that many issues inescapably involve saying ‘on the one hand, but on the other’."

Trechos retirados de “Radical Uncertainty” de John Kay e Mervyn King 

Um país de amadores

Ontem no jornal Público um artigo a puxar ao chauvinismo, "Empresas espanholas estão a assegurar 70% do mercado das obras públicas em Portugal".

Lembrei-me logo das ruinas ao lado do tanque de água para o gado, enquanto dançava o can-can:

As ruinas que mencionei neste postal e o esquema associado:

O artigo do Público começa assim:

"A tendência começou na época da troika, mas tem também sido validada pelo Tribunal de Contas: na altura de avaliar uma proposta de obra pública, as entidades adjudicantes devem dar predominância aos critérios objectivos, e impedir que os aspectos subjectivos tenham grande valor, de forma a aumentar a transparência e a evitar a corrupção. O critério preço será sempre um dos mais objectivos, pelo que a forma como ele é determinado é muito relevante.

...

A forma como o critério preço está a pesar nos concursos (no caso do último lançado pela Metro do Porto, o factor preço pesa 80% na análise das propostas) e aquilo que consideram ser uma estratégia das empresas estrangeiras em ganhar o mercado português regressa agora ao topo das preocupações das empresas portuguesas, que estão a ter dificuldades em ganhar os concursos."

Que conversa mais parola esta de "uma estratégia das empresas estrangeiras em ganhar o mercado português". Isto é o mesmo que as empresas do litoral fizeram às empresas do interior. Quando o negócio é preço ganha quem tiver maior dimensão, menores custos unitários, o resto é treta.

É assim que se faz a consolidação num sector de actividade. As empresas que competem pelo preço e que crescem mais depressa são as mais eficientes e isso, como ilustra o esquema acima, gera uma avalanche de mais vitórias para os vencedores, que vão crescendo cada vez mais e ficando cada vez mais competitivos.

Pensar que é "uma estratégia das empresas estrangeiras em ganhar o mercado português" é a mesma reacção parola de achar que os ingleses deviam ter cedido na lista em nome da mais velha aliança. 

Um país parolo.

"get out the squeeze box"

Um artigo para nos fazer pensar nas mudanças que estão em curso nestes tempos pós-Covid, "Why the crisis marks the end of the road for longstanding business lines":

"Segway will produce the last of the two-wheeled personal transporters after which the company was named. 

...

Its manufacturer now generates far more revenue from kick-scooters, e-skates and other “micro-mobility” products that threaten pedestrians’ pavement stroll.

...

Olympus agreed last month to sell its camera division, part of the group since 1936, following three consecutive years of operating losses. In May, General Electric finally announced the sale of its lightbulb business, which traced its history back to Thomas Edison’s invention. 

...

The onset of lockdown forced companies to take quick decisions, and accelerate pending changes. In the same way, as businesses enter a lengthier, but no less brutal, period of uncertainty, their owners, directors and executives are unlocking strategic changes that might otherwise have become bogged down by sentiment or inertia.[Moi ici: Ao ler isto fiquei a pensar nisto que li no mesmo número do FT de ontem "Spain signals furlough extension into 2021 for worst hit sectors". Quando não se é encostado às cordas não se faz o soul searching que leva a decisões corajosas. A borboleta que é ajudada a sair do casulo nunca consegue levantar voo] 

The buzzword, as ever, is focus. As I have noted before, it can be dangerous to sweep away old habits hastily, but numerous chief executives attest that the crisis is stripping away resistance to big corporate decisions.[Moi ici: O artigo continua com a Lixil, a empresa do CEO que falou do lockdown como a disguised blessing, continua com a BP e a ABB]

...

proceed in a “fact-based and unemotional manner”. If he does, it seems inevitable that ABB will put some of its “heritage brands” on the block in due course.

Plenty of companies now face questions of survival. Some may be forced into fire sales of assets. Those who are likely to succeed, though, will simply be speeding up a process of constant, cold-eyed assessment of their assets that was under way well before the pandemic incinerated their strategy plans.

Such companies, whether they realise it or not, are disciples of Peter Drucker’s philosophy of “systematic abandonment”, which the management thinker considered to be a prerequisite for future growth. Every two or three years, Drucker advised, executives should ask themselves: “If we did not already produce this product line or did not already serve this market, would we now, knowing what we know now, go into it?”

...

[Moi ici: E dedicado aos não fanáticos, a maioria na qual não me incluo, que apoiam o ministro Pedro Nuno Santos na aquisição da TAP por questões ideológico-sentimentais, este último trecho] Knowing what we know now, clinging on to underperforming businesses merely for emotional or historical reasons is unwise. It is time for executives to get out the squeeze box and start playing."

Sem fazer escolhas

Encontrei estes gráficos no LinkedIn, já não sei onde em concreto:

Gente com dinheiro e gente com mais de 55 anos.

Qual é mesmo o cliente-alvo dos ginásios? 

Por outro lado:

Estratégia é isto, olhar para um universo de potenciais clientes e fazer escolhas, para concentrar o foco:

A maioria há-de querer tudo para todos e tentar servir todos e ninguém.

"rethink your product mix and pricing strategies"

"As these initiatives suggest, you’ll want to rethink your product mix and pricing strategies in response to shifting customer needs. Purchasing behavior changes dramatically in a recession. Consumers increasingly opt for lowerpriced alternatives to their usual purchases, trading down to buy private label products or to shop at discount retailers. Although some consumers will continue to trade up, they’ll do so in smaller numbers and in fewer categories. ... Whatever your business, determine how the needs, preferences, and spending patterns of your customers, whether consumer or corporate, are affected by the economic climate. For example, careful segmentation may reveal products primarily purchased by people still willing to pay full price. Use that intelligence to inform product portfolio and investment choices."

Que alterações é preciso fazer à gama de produtos da sua empresa? E ao pricing?

Trechos retirados de "Seize Advantage in a Downturn" de David Rhodes e Daniel Stelter.

Sempre do lado do problema, nunca da solução

"Seek advantage in adversity. Don’t merely endeavor to mitigate risk or damage or restore what was; rather, aim to create advantage in adversity by effectively adjusting to new realities.

Look forward. In the short run, a crisis many appear tactical and operational, but on longer timescales, new needs and the incapacitation of competitors create opportunities. Crises can also be the best pretext for accelerating long-term transformational change. One of the key roles for leaders is therefore to shift an organization’s time horizons outward."

Há tempos tive conhecimento que esta empresa, Chegg.com, estava a ter um boom à custa do covid-19 e das quarentenas. Recordei ter visto num telejornal uma representante das empresas que dão explicações a lamentar a desgraça que está a ser este ano por causa do covid-19. Pois, um país de coitadinhos, sempre à caça de mais um apoio. Incapazes de fazer um esforço para ver como virar a mesa a favor, gente como o Mário Nogueira, estão sempre do lado do problema, nunca da solução.

Trechos retirados de "A Guide to Building a More Resilient Business"

"If they can’t sell a price increase I don’t want them on my team"

Tanto por fazer a este nível nas empresas portuguesas.

"The best thing a salesperson can sell is a price increase. Pricing is so important – in fact, it is the most important profit lever. Pricing is one of the most fundamental aspects of any business – every company has to set prices for its products and services. If the world was a rational place, pricing management would be a core competence of every firm, but in reality it almost never is.

The beauty of pricing, and price increases in particular, for sales leaders is that it all drops straight through to the bottom line. As one recently remarked to me about her salesforce, “If they can’t sell a price increase I don’t want them on my team."

At the same time, we know that many salespeople hate even the thought of price-related customer conversations, let alone price increases."

Trecho retirado de "Can You Sell a Price Rise?" 

Ressignificar as experiências

Há tempos uma colega falou-me nesta palavra "ressignificar":

"Viver é estar sujeito a passar por momentos bons e ruins, que nem sempre – ou quase nunca – estão sob nosso controle.
No entanto, como vamos reagir a determinadas circunstâncias é uma escolha. Cabe a você decidir se uma crise existencial, por exemplo, vai deixar ensinamentos ou vai servir apenas para lamentações e vitimizações.
...
por mais difícil que a realidade pareça, sempre há uma alternativa.
...
Nos dualismos da vida, a ressignificação é o que nos faz olhar para o lado bom quando a impressão é que só existem coisas ruins para extrair.
Copo meio cheio ou meio vazio?
Preferir sempre olhar pelo lado positivo e priorizar o otimismo ao pessimismo é escolher a ressignificação.
Mas há outros benefícios que buscar outro significado para as nossas experiências pode ter."

Trechos retirados de "Ressignificar: significado, como fazer e benefícios"

"When we talk about resignifying one’s experiences, we’re talking about changing their meaning and seeing them from a new perspective, one that’s less distressing and exhausting.
...
Each of your experiences is associated with an emotion. And the meaning you attribute to each experience will always be tied to it. Therefore, giving it another meaning is going to make you focus on a different emotion.
...
Resignifying former experiences is essential for transformation. It’s your choice to either transform or remain stagnant and unable to fly."

Trechos retirados de "Resignifying Experiences is Essential for Change"

Concentrar a energia na acção

Há pessoas, há empresas e há situações em que parecem helicópteros:

Até fazem barulho, até sentem os desafios no ar, até identificam os ingredientes do problema, até se antecipam ao problema, mas nunca mais se decidem, não saem do sítio, pairam e pairam e pairam.

Esta semana analisei a listagem dos factores que uma empresa inclui na sua tabela SWOT.

É claro que encontrei o habitual rol de factores da treta que sempre povoam estas listas, mas também encontrei coisas originais e alavancáveis. Engraçado como às vezes temos uma preocupação enorme em fazer uma lista enorme, quando com apenas meia-dúzia de factores críticos pode-se construir qualquer coisa com sentido.

Se conjugarmos Fraquezas e Ameaças visualizamos escrito no papel uma descrição do inferno em que o mercado interno se vai transformar.  

Muita gente tem dificuldade em lidar com o abstracto, mas quando a ideia aparece escrita numa folha de papel, quando se torna em algo de concreto, normalmente impele à acção.

Se conjugarmos Forças e Oportunidades visualizamos uma janela de oportunidade para sair do inferno.

Isto faz-me recuar a Dezembro de 1980 quando descobri o poder de ter uma agenda diária. Os níveis de ansiedade diminuem e concentramos a energia na acção.

"Lives of quiet desperation"

Esta manhã enquanto conduzia emergiu na minha mente a frase de Thoreau:

"Lives of quiet desperation. 

What is called resignation is confirmed desperation" 

Há cerca de quinze dias escrevi no Twitter:

Ontem passei o dia todo fechado numa empresa. Saí já depois das 19h e enquanto conduzia dei comigo a ouvir um programa na Rádio Renascença onde os comentadores do regime alinhavam com o governo e diziam amém a duas nacionalizações. Nem uma voz contra, nem uma voz a desdizer a narrativa oficial sobre a EFACEC ou sobre a TAP.

Mais dinheiro impostado aos contribuintes torrado em delírios da corte lisboeta. Mais pedras no saco às costas das empresas que têm de fazer corridas com empresas de outros países com governos menos atreitos a orgias socialistas.

Isto nunca vai ter fim, este país nem com 5 troikas vai mudar. Ingenuidade pensar que a UE nos ia proteger...

A 1 de Setembro de 2007 no Expresso, Daniel Bessa escreveu:

"... faltou sempre o dinheiro que o "Portugal profundo" preferiu gastar na "ajuda" a "empresas em situação económica difícil"...

"there is no single way to be rational"

"For an individual, choosing the strategy most likely to succeed maximises expected winnings. But a group made up of such optimising individuals is eventually wiped out by infrequent calamities. As a result, the groups whose genes come to dominate are those who apply ‘mixed strategies’, varying their habitat. The American political scientist James Scott describes the reality of this in the history of ‘scientific’ forestry. Planting the ‘best’ trees led to monocultures which were in due course wiped out by previously unknown parasites. The Irish potato blight was able to devastate that country’s agriculture – leading to at least a million deaths from disease and starvation and to substantial and prolonged emigration from the island – because the potato had been identified as the optimal crop for that country’s conditions and so the country’s food production was poorly diversified. Humans are all better off because we are all different, and because there is no single way to be rational; we give thanks for our current state to St Francis and Oscar Wilde and Steve Jobs and to millions of people who became skilled at their own specialist but routine tasks.”

Recordar Valikangas e "Shit Happens!"

 

Trechos retirados de “Radical Uncertainty” de John Kay e Mervyn King 

A conspiração continua

"A taxa de desemprego deverá ter diminuído para 5,5% em maio, segundo a estimativa rápida publicada pelo Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE) esta quarta-feira. Os dados finais do desemprego de abril mostram que a taxa de desemprego se situou em 6,3%, o mesmo valor provisório que o INE já tinha divulgado no início de junho.

...

A população desempregada terá situado-se em 267,9 mil pessoas, uma diminuição de 16%, ou 50,9 mil pessoas, em comparação com o mês anterior, e de 19,2% ou 63,7 mil pessoas, face a três meses antes. Em comparação com o período homólogo de 2019, a população desempregada caiu 21,9%, o equivalente a 75,2 mil pessoas."

Que dizer destes indicadores e das suas definições...

Os dirigentes do INE não têm vergonha de publicar estes números?

Recordo "A teoria da conspiração exposta"

Trechos retirados de "Desemprego desce para 5,5%, mas número de inativos aumentou para 14,2%"

Empresas estratégicas

Este artigo, "So, You've No Room to Grow... or Have You?", é simplesmente delicioso.

Nestes tempos de torrefacção de impostos para proteger empresas supostamente estratégicas o que dizer de:

"#5 “When you say ‘strategic’ account, I hear ‘loss-making’ account” (Gamblers’ fallacy)

.

I am afraid this one is one of my own quotes, borne out of experience. When looking for outliers within a client’s customer portfolio, a few blue-chip names often show up with both low revenues and margins. The usual explanation given for this is that it is a “strategic account”, often a firm that has had the potential to be a key account but for some reason is not. The assumption is that, if we keep trying, the bad luck will eventually reverse. To try to encourage growth, increasingly better offers are put on the table. If such a client ever were to grow to the size of a key account though, it would then expect even bigger discounts and so the account would end up underwater, if it is not already. The reality is usually that the service level from a competitor is superior, that switching costs are prohibitively high and/or that the client is happy to dual-source to keep their primary supplier on its toes. At some point it will be worth directing your energies elsewhere."

"Turn, turn, turn"

No WSJ da passada segunda-feira li "How to Slay a Tech Giant (Apple)":

"They had 50% of the computer industry’s revenue but 90% of its profits. They used FUD—fear,  uncertainty and doubt—to freeze out competitors. But IBM was vulnerable. A loose horizontal confederation threatened its power: Intel processors, Microsoft’s operating system, Western Digital hard drives and Compaq hardware, along with Lotus, Adobe and Microsoft applications, added up to a “Virtual IBM” and eventually toppled the giant. The same thing happened in the late 1990s with AT&T. A horizontal internet of network equipment, browsers and websites created a Virtual AT&T and toppled the vertically integrated telecom.

...

Apple has become IBM, it’s become AT&T—a vertical giant waiting for a future David to come along with a horizontal slingshot. 

.

If I were an investment banker today (Lord help me) I’d be running around pitching a Virtual Apple. Neutralize its strengths and then attack new markets.

...

Unit sales of iPhones and iPad peaked years ago. As the company runs out of new customers, growth is coming from adjacent markets like watches and earbuds, and from online services. And now the Justice Department is investigating its app store for abuse.

...

Remember, IBM didn’t fail overnight—it took decades. But its growth rolled over and the stock market eventually figured that out and cut off access to cheap capital."

Recordar "Turn, turn, turn" 

A rapidez é fundamental

Já por aqui escrevi várias vezes sobre o imperativo da urgência de actuação nestes tempos. Por isso, critiquei o prolongamento do lay-off. Por isso, fiquei doente ao perceber que as empresas têxteis andaram distraídas a brincar às máscaras. Até me apetece chorar só de voltar a pensar nisto. 

Nos trechos que se seguem, retirados de "Coronavirus: Nine in Ten Companies Need to Act Now!" acaba-se assim:

"Takeaway: Commercial agility is key

We expect most companies to experience the demand extremes and the stresses of at least two of these scenarios in the next 18-24 months, perhaps even simultaneously depending on how the pandemic progresses in different markets around the world.  Whether a company or industry can move to a better position, or defend a desirable one, will come down to their commercial agility. This is the ability to make resilient offer design, sales, cost management and pricing decisions with unprecedented speed and flexibility – over and over again – until some form of equilibrium returns to their market.

In this crisis, you have to be faster. You have to reduce your capacity faster, but you also have to bring it up faster. You need to defend the top line and find growth earlier than later."

Achei interessante a abordagem sobre a procura vs a prateleira:

"We don’t see the point in crystal balling whether the market will go up or down by one, two, three, four, or five percent. We can’t predict the exact scenario for the rest of the year or tell you whether things will brighten up in seven, eight, or 15 months. Instead, what we are most interested in is what needs to change. How are customer needs evolving and how do companies need to respond in terms of their sales, marketing, and pricing approach?  We look at demand, not just in terms of volume swings, but also whether behavioral changes in customers will be permanent, and how to react to them. 

...

If your industry belongs to the nine in ten outside of the thriving category, then you need to take action now!"

É claro que isto é uma simplificação. Aposto que os materiais de construção DIY estão a ter um desempenho melhor que o resto do sector.

"do I really need to sell a brand?"

"do I really need to sell a brand? Isn't that just a distraction--a way to push an inferior product by confusing the buyer with a bunch of piffle paffle? Isn't my product the most important thing?

...

Let's face it, without a story, your product is likely just a commodity. Commodities do not sell themselves. It's the stories, myths, legends, grifts, and shticks that we tell about our products that do the heavy lifting. Nota bene: They don't have to be true. They just have to be interesting.

...

Product attributes are never enough--unless your product attributes are exclusively yours or no one else has owned them yet."

Trechos retirados de "Why Every Product Needs a Great Brand Story" 

Por cá, basta torrar impostos na TAP e na EFACEC para ficarmos todos bem!

Ontem, depois disto:

Li no FT "Small business: a canary in the American economic coal mine":

"If you’re looking to predict the shape of the economic recovery in the United States – be it V, W, L or even K – don’t look at the markets. Take a look at the small and medium-sized businesses that account for 50 percent of the country’s employment. They are the best economic indicator in America right now. They are also in trouble.

...

By mid-April, revenues from personal service businesses – typically a single entrepreneur working, for example, as a locksmith, hairstylist, or pet sitter – were down 80%. These companies are disproportionately owned by minority entrepreneurs, another reason why the pandemic is increasing inequality. In mid-June, almost half of US small business owners said they did not expect to return to normal operations in the next six months, according to a Credit Suisse survey.

.

These companies – from health clubs to restaurants and retailers – employ about half of the US workforce. These are not “strategic” or “high-growth” companies that policy makers and economists generally seek to encourage. But their pain “is a big problem for the macro economy,” as Deutsche Bank Securities chief economist Torsten Slok told me – not least because they provide far more jobs than the S&P 500 companies, which account for only 10 percent of the US nonfarm total wages.

...

You don’t have to analyze public health statistics or wacky analyst reports to get a sense of the real economy in America. Just go down Main Street. The many small businesses that have closed represent two-thirds of the 20 million jobs lost since the pandemic. Some old hotspots, like New York, reopen with caution. But most small business revenue forecasts are not close to normal.

.

A second wave of illnesses would certainly trigger a new wave of layoffs and insolvencies. According to the New York Fed, only one in five small businesses can survive a loss of income for two months. Many small businesses even reduce their rehiring when they reopen. For the most affected areas, things may never return to normal. The Credit Suisse survey found that 17% of hotels and restaurants believe their revenues will never return to pre-Covid-19 levels.

.

The ripple effects from all of this will be huge. Many small businesses are physical, not virtual. They are not designed for locking. They do not have access to world capital. They are rooted in the communities they serve. 

Their fortunes are not flattered by the liquidity of the central bank. Any investor who really wants to take the economic pulse of America has only to speak to the owner of his local cafe, beauty salon or cinema. They will have a very different reading from that of Wall Street."

Por cá, basta torrar impostos na TAP e na EFACEC para ficarmos todos bem! 

"Risk is failure of a projected narrative"

A ISO 9001 aborda a abordagem baseada no risco. 

“The Oxford Dictionary defines risk as ‘the possibility that something unpleasant or unwelcome will happen’,

…

Risk in its ordinary meaning concerns unfavourable events, not beneficial ones.

.

Risk is asymmetric. We do not hear people say ‘there is a risk that I might win the lottery’ because winning the lottery is not something they would describe as a risk. They do not even say ‘there is a risk I might not win the lottery’ because they do not realistically expect to win the lottery. The everyday meaning of risk refers to an adverse event which jeopardises the realistic expectations of the individual household or institution. And so the meaning of risk is a product of the plans and expectations of that household or institution. Risk is necessarily particular. It does not mean the same thing to J. P. Morgan as it does to a paraglider or mountain climber, or to a household saving for retirement or the children’s education.

…

Very often, the risks that concern us are not risks to the status quo, but risks to our plans to change that status quo.

…

We believe the best way to understand attitudes to risk is through the concept of a reference narrative, a story which is an expression of our realistic expectations. For J. P. Morgan, the overarching reference narrative is one in which the bank continues profitable growth. A large corporation will have many strategies for achieving that overarching objective in particular areas of its business and there will be a reference narrative relating to each business unit. Some of these business unit reference narratives may be very risky, but the corporation may tolerate such risks provided they do not endanger the reference narrative of the organisation as a whole.

…

And since different people start with different reference narratives, the same risk may be assessed by different people in different ways. Risk may not be the same for those who work in an organisation as it is for the shareholders of that organisation.

…

Risk is failure of a projected narrative, derived from realistic expectations, to unfold as envisaged. The happy father anticipating his daughter’s wedding has in mind a reference narrative in which events go ahead as planned. He recognises a variety of risks – the prospective bridegroom has cold feet, a torrential downpour drenches the guests. There is an implied measure of risk in such assessment – an outcome can fall short of expectations by a narrow margin or a wide one. The scale of that risk may or may not be quantifiable, before or after the event. But this interpretation is very different to the view that has come to dominate quantitative finance and much of economics and decision theory: that risk can be equated to the volatility of outcomes.”

Trechos retirados de “Radical Uncertainty” de John Kay e Mervyn King 

Ingenuidade

Há cerca de um mês, no postal "Time compression" escrevi:

"A atenção deve ser concentrada no médio longo prazo. Sempre!

Não é a fazer máscaras e viseiras que as empresas vão ter futuro."

Agora descubro que efectivamente, o sector têxtil nacional andou a perder tempo e a desviar-se do fundamental ao dedicar-se à produção de máscaras. As empresas, como os agricultores, têm de perceber que não existe interesse nacional. São usadas como chiclete quando são precisas e depois são deitadas fora. Não culpo quem o faz, quem as deita fora depois de usadas. É a vida! Culpo quem ingenuamente não percebe que é assim.

No JN de hoje "Quebra nas máscaras atrasa recuperação do setor têxtil" 

"O fabrico de máscaras e outros equipamentos de proteção contra a covid-19 foi um balão de oxigénio para o setor têxtil, mas está a acabar. Com o mercado nacional saturado e as exportações impregnadas de burocracias para a certificação, as encomendas caíram a pique e Portugal já está longe do milhão de máscaras diárias que estava a produzir no início de maio."

Enquanto canalizaram energias, tempo, atenção, para esta brincadeira, não as canalizaram para o essencial do negócio, procurar clientes no negócio fundamental. 

A normandagem é como a ferrugem, nunca descansa

Um novo mundo

"El Gobierno ha modulado recientemente la ley general tributaria que regula las relaciones entre la Administración y los contribuyentes para incluir la posibilidad de realizar inspecciones mediante videoconferencia y adaptarse así a la nueva realidad a distancia que marca el Covid-19." 

Trechos retirados do jornal El Economista do passado dia 27 de Junho. 

Até a Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Lisboa vai ficar bem!!!

Há muitos anos passou na televisão portuguesa a preto e branco uma série inglesa, "Os Desastres de Frank Spencer". Recordo sempre um episódio, ou melhor, o final de um episódio. Nunca mais o vi, mas as imagens finais nunca as esqueci.

Voltei a recordar-me delas depois de ler: "Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Lisboa pode terminar 2020 com prejuízos acima de 30 milhões"

Eu devia ter 9 ou 10 anos quando vi esse episódio. Frank era despedido de emprego atrás de emprego, depois de deixar cada empresa em que ingressava no maior caos, provocado pelas suas trapalhadas. Nos minutos finais alguém, um psiquiatra(?), recomenda que Frank emigre para a Austrália, para assumir o emprego de guardador de rebanhos. Julgo que o psiquiatra terá dito "Põe-no a guardar um rebanho com 1 milhão de carneiros, mnesmo que perca alguns milhares ninguém vai notar". A imagem seguinte é a de Frank, sozinho,  montado num cavalo, no meio de uma suposta pradaria australiana, a exclamar:

- Betty (a mulher dele), perdi-os todos!!!

Até a Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Lisboa vai ficar bem!!!

Produtividade e tretas académicas

Ontem escrevi sobre "Como se aumenta a produtividade por hora de trabalho?"

Depois, durante o dia perguntaram-me se tinha algum conselho geral sobre como se aumenta a produtividade. 

Quem pretende aumentar a produtividade num país deve pensar em aumentar a produtividade nas empresas concretas que povoam cada sector de actividade. E quando se olha para um sector de actividade encontra-se uma grande variabilidade de produtividades, uma grande variabilidade de rentabilidades.

Recordo a frase:

Existe mais variabilidade dentro de um sector de actividade do que entre sectores de actividade.

Assim, para cada sector de actividade, sugiro estudar as diferenças entre empresas concretas no topo da produtividade e comparar com as empresas na média do sector.

Entretanto, ao final da tarde de ontem encontrei o suplemento do Jornal Económico, "Relançar a Economia", publicado a 26.06.2020. Aí, no artigo "A reindustrialização nas mãos da economia portuguesa" sublinhei com desânimo alguns trechos proferidos por João Duque:

"João Duque defende que Portugal tem de “procurar setores de elevado valor acrescentado e com valor de marca. E, para isso, é fundamental o associativismo de setor e o estímulo a esse associativismo. Ganhar escala para sermos visíveis, como tão bem fizeram os industriais do calçado, por exemplo." [Moi ici: OMG! Aposto que João Duque nunca estudou o sector do calçado. Recordo a evolução do tamanho das empresas no sector em "Não vai ser nenhum 'lay-off' que as vai preparar para essa transição". Recomendaria a João Duque a leitura da série "Quantas empresas"]

Um outro trecho escandaloso, porque revela a falta de noção, a falta de estudo, a falta de percepção do que é a realidade concreta e não treta de macroeconomia:

"“Para começar, acho que podemos ir à lista de importações e começar a fazer o que importamos. Se conseguimos passar a fazer ventiladores, porque não outras coisas?”"

 Leram isto? Agora, deixem mergulhar bem fundo na vossa consciência o significado de um comentador económico e professor universitário proferir esta afirmação.

Portugal importa calçado? Sim

Portugal exporta calçado? Sim

Faz sentido Portugal produzir internamente o calçado que importa? Nope! quem pagaria os salários desses operários? 

Recordo:

"preço médio de um par de sapatos exportado de Portugal: 26.08 USD

preço médio de um par de sapatos importado para Portugal: 10.76 USD"

Recordo:

"Acaso a indústria portuguesa de mobiliário pode competir, num mercado aberto, com os preços do mobiliário asiático?

 E, no entanto:

"A taxa de cobertura das exportações pelas importações do período em referência é de 235%.""

 Nós produzimos para exportação a preços mais altos e importamos o barato para consumo interno. O futuro da economia portuguesa não é a reduzir importações, mas a exportar mais ainda. Sublinho:

"The Dutch (56%) are more then twice reliant on exports than Greece (21%), Turkey (20%), Portugal (26%) and Italy (24%)"

Assim se percebe a quantidade de treta académica do comentariado que enche o espaço no panorama mediático nacional. 

Como se aumenta a produtividade por hora de trabalho?

"Portugal é o sétimo país da União Europeia com menor produtividade por hora de trabalho, divulgou este sábado a Pordata, num retrato ao tecido empresarial do país, a propósito do Dia das Micro, Pequenas e Médias Empresas.

...

“Em termos de produtividade por hora de trabalho, face à média da UE27 (=100), Portugal é um dos países com menor produtividade (65% da média da UE27)”, revelou a base de dados estatísticos da Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos, que analisou dados de 2018."

Uma batalha antiga neste blogue.

Como se aumenta a produtividade por hora de trabalho?

Falo de aumento a sério, não de migalhas. Como se aumenta a produtividade por hora de trabalho?

Aumentando os preços do que se vende.

Não façam, como eu, o papel de burros. Há um truque para subir preços sem perder clientes.

Recordar este postal de 2018 sobre o aumento de salários e o Evangelho do Valor!

Trechos retirados de "Portugal é o 7.º país da UE com menor produtividade por hora de trabalho"

 

Um provinciano muito à frente

No FT, edição americana, de ontem podia ler-se "Coronavirus rips a hole in newspapers’ business models":

"Our thesis is you have to invest in a product to have a chance at the digital media business. [Netflix chief executive] Reed Hastings believes that. What is striking to me is how few people [in news] have tried this. A lot of people are just trying to keep things from falling away.” The New York Times on Tuesday cut 68 jobs, largely in advertising, sparing the newsroom.

.

‘The industry was so flush’

Industry executives admit that the news business responded disastrously to the advent of the internet. Premium content was given away for free, while the publisher’s role between reader and advertiser was left wide open for others to intermediate, or replace.

.

“We were extraordinarily naive, because the industry was so flush,” says Terry Egger, a veteran of the news business who recently retired as publisher of the Philadelphia Inquirer. “In the mid-1990s, there was so much profit . . . the internet was a novelty not taken seriously.

...

The question is how far the subscriber model will stretch and whether it could ever replace the income from advertising. “Subscription revenue is more sustainable, it is recurrent, it has a lot of advantages,” says Kristin Skogen Lund, chief executive of Schibsted, the biggest publisher in Scandinavia, the region with the world’s highest density of news subscriptions. “The problem . . . is that the revenue base is simply not large enough. You would need to charge so much for a subscription to sustain the entire cost of running a media site.”

Recordar "O futuro do jornalismo" (Dezembro de 2017) e "Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte XV)" (Janeiro de 2017)

O canário na mina

O Jornal de Negócios de ontem, 25 de Junho de 2020, o podcast de ontem de Camilo Lourenço no Facebook e este texto de ontem no ECO, "UTAO arrasa proposta de Leão que remove “pilares” da LEO. É um “retrocesso”" traçam um retrato do buraco onde estamos em queda livre.

Alguns "recortes" dos Jornal de Negócios de ontem:

Repare naqueles 39 mil milhões de euros...

Repare naqueles 22%... quase um quarto dos créditos totais

Depois recorde os números do desemprego... recorde o estado actual e futuro do turismo e do peso que tinha no PIB e no emprego.

Depois, pense no significado disto:

Propósito deste postal para o mundo empresarial: dar um conselho sem ter sido pedido.

Comece a fazer testes de stress à sua empresa ASAP. 

Quando os bancos adiam os seus testes de stress é o canário na mina para que as empresas os comecem a fazer e a preparar o barco para uma tempestade.

‘Come on, this is serious’

"There is no general theory of how best to make decisions. Much of the academic literature on decision-making under uncertainty tries to frame the challenge as a puzzle. All decisions, it is assumed, can be expressed as mathematical problems. And potentially capable of being solved by computers. Your smartphone will tell you what restaurants are nearby, how to get there, and perhaps what you ate last night; but not where and what you want to eat now. The probably apocryphal but nevertheless illuminating story about a decision theorist contemplating whether or not to accept a job offer from a rival university illustrates this well: upon being urged by his colleague to apply tenets of rational decision-making under uncertainty and maximise his expected utility, as his academic papers suggested, he responded with exasperation, ‘Come on, this is serious.’

Humans have evolved to cope with problems which are not amenable to probabilistic reasoning 

...

Our brains are not built like computers but as adaptive mechanisms for making connections and recognising patterns. Good decisions often result from leaps of the imagination. Creativity was the quality exhibited by that unknown Sumerian who invented the wheel, by Einstein, and by Steve Jobs. And, as Knight and Keynes emphasised, creativity is inseparable from uncertainty. By its nature, creativity cannot be formalised, only described after the event, with or without the help of equations."

Trechos retirados de “Radical Uncertainty” de John Kay e Mervyn King

I see zombies everywhere!

Em Outubro passado escrevi aqui no blogue em, "Produtividade e socialismo (parte III)", sobre as empresas zombies em Portugal, na altura supostamente seriam mais de 20%.

Já em Dezembro de 2018 tinha escrito aqui no blogue sobre o grito: "Deixem as empresas morrer!"

Já em Maio deste ano voltei ao tema com "E a zombificação?"

Agora no FT pode-se ler "Reasons to fear the march of the zombie companies":

"Money has never been cheaper. Governments and central banks have acted quickly to make it both plentiful and accessible to support companies through the pandemic downturn. The cure, however, has a sting in its tail. As policymakers begin to unwind job retention schemes and other support measures the concern is that economic recovery will be held back by a proliferation of debt-laden companies shuffling across a corporate twilight zone: a whole generation of zombies.

...

Even before the Covid-19 crisis, a decade of low interest rates helped to fuel a rise in the number of “living dead”: companies unable to cover their debt-servicing costs from profits in the long term. 

...

The pandemic has created new ones. There are also fears of a proliferation of unviable “zombie jobs”, kept on life support through furlough schemes. People working in sectors struggling under strict social-distancing rules, such as hospitality and retail, are especially vulnerable.

...

Allowing zombie companies to limp along, unable to invest or repay their debts, comes at a cost to the wider economy. Research has shown these companies are a drag on productivity growth." 

BTW, desta vez não estou de acordo com Bruno Maçães e vamos deixar a realidade decidir quem tem razão. 

Os especialistas versus os generalistas

Este postal de Seth Godin, "What’s at the front of the line?" é muito sugestivo:

"A study of behavior at breakfast buffets showed that the first item in the buffet was taken by 75% of the diners (even when the order of the items was reversed) and that two-thirds of all the food taken came from the first three items, regardless of how long the buffet is.

.

This means that optimizing marketers usually put the things they most want to sell first.

.

And that smart consumers benefit from adopting patience as they consider what’s on offer.

.

Of course, this game theory applies to a lot more than food."

Dá que pensar... faz-me lembrar os especialistas versus os generalistas do one-stop-shop.

 

"what happens to organizations that get stuck"

“All too often, this is precisely what happens to organizations that get stuck. They return to the same practices and methods well past their point of effectiveness. Sometimes we’ve had our line in the water in the same place for so long we don’t even notice we haven’t gotten any bites in a really long time. To see problems and their solutions in a different light—to become more radical in our approach—we may have to fish in a totally different body of water, with different crew members and wholly new tools. [Moi ici: Como não recordar Zapatero e o paradoxo dos peritos]

.

“We don’t know who discovered water, but we’re certain it wasn’t a fish.”[Moi ici: Como não recordar "Beware of the invisible water in the tank"]

—John Culkin”

Mais um trecho retirado de "Remarkable Retail", desta feita do capítulo 19 "Essential #9: Radical".

"Organizations don’t just prepare for the future. They make it."

Outro trecho retirado da HBR de Julho-Agosto de 2020, "Learning from the future".

"Of course, strategic foresight also enables us to identify opportunities and amplifies our ability to seize them. Organizations don’t just prepare for the future. They make it. Moments of uncertainty hold great entrepreneurial potential. As Wack once wrote in these pages, “It is precisely in these contexts—not in stable times—that the real opportunities lie to gain competitive advantage through strategy.” It takes strength to stand up against the tyranny of the present and invest in imagination. Strategic foresight makes both possible—and offers leaders a chance for legacy. After all, they will be judged not only by what they do today but by how well they chart a course toward tomorrow."

Uma mensagem clássica deste blogue. 

Olha nós todos bem!

Olha todos bem!

E é só o começo!!!

O pagamento do subsídio de férias ainda não fez o seu estrago:

Não me convence

No semanário Expresso de Sábado passado, num artigo designado "Cuidado com a poupança", li:

"Bem sei que é inevitável a taxa de poupança aumentar quando a incerteza sobre o futuro se agrava. Costuma acontecer sempre. É natural e é humano. É isso que explica que o consumo caia mais do que o rendimento. As pessoas consomem menos porque têm menos dinheiro, em primeiro lugar, mas também por precaução, por não saberem o que aí vem.

...

Poupar é abdicar de consumo presente em troca de consumo futuro: faz todo o sentido se acharmos que aquilo que nos espera é pior do que o que hoje vivemos. Mas o efeito agregado de todas essas decisões individuais não é nada simpático para a economia.

...

Quando a família adia a compra de um carro, até pode ficar com mais dinheiro no banco, mas economia encolhe — e, lá está, a poupança aumenta.

...

mais poupança é menos consumo e isso, já se sabe, só pode dar em menos PIB. Porque a economia são muitas famílias. É a família Silva que decidiu não comprar o carro. Mas é também a família Nunes, em que o pai, que trabalha num stand automóvel, ficou desempregado.

...

Portugal é um país que tem poupado pouco desde que aderiu ao euro? Sem dúvida. É por isso que andámos anos a acumular défices externos. Reconhecer isto não é o mesmo que dizer que poupar é sempre bom. Há alturas em que, mesmo sendo compreensível, não é a opção mais vantajosa da economia. Na hora de poupar, é melhor ter cuidado. Enquanto poupa, pode haver alguém que também está a cortar-lhe o dinheiro que tem na carteira."

Há qualquer coisa neste racional que não me convence. 

Como é que se transforma dívida em capital? 

Como é que se cria um novo normal mais sustentável do que o anterior? Não é a replicar as interacções económicas do passado que nos trouxeram até aqui. Talvez o senhor Nunes tenha mesmo de ir para o desemprego no curto prazo para termos uma economia mais sustentável. 

O futuro pode ser uma causa a actuar no presente

Um artigo à boa moda antiga na revista HBR de Julho-Agosto de 2020, "Learning from the future".

"If companies want to make effective strategy in the face of uncertainty, they need to set up a process of constant exploration—one that allows top managers to build permanent but flexible bridges between their actions in the present and their thinking about the future. What’s necessary, in short, is not just imagination but the institutionalization of imagination. That is the essence of strategic foresight.

...

uncertainty precludes prediction but demands anticipation—and that imaginatively and rigorously exploring plausible futures can facilitate decision-making.

...

Humans tend to conceive of time as linear and unidirectional, as moving from past to present to future, with each time frame discrete. We remember yesterday; we experience today; we anticipate tomorrow. But the best scenario planning embraces a decidedly nonlinear conception of time. That’s what Long View and Evergreen did: They took stock of trends in the present, jumped many years into the future, described plausible worlds created by those drivers, worked backward to develop stories about how those worlds had come to pass, and then worked forward again to develop robust strategies. In this model, time circles around on itself, in a constantly evolving feedback cycle between present and future. In a word, it is a loop.

.

Once participants began to view time as a loop, they understood thinking about the future as an essential component of taking action in the present. [Moi ici: Ao ler isto, como não recordar Ortega Y Gasset e como ele nos mostra que o futuro pode ser uma causa a actuar no presente] The scenarios gave them a structure that strengthened their ability to be strategic, despite tremendous uncertainty." 

"Customer focus is a choice—and a critically important one"

Mais um trecho retirado de "Remarkable Retail", desta feita do capítulo 16 "Essential #5: Personal". Só que desta vez parece retirado deste blogue:

"A while later, Bessemer Trust, a leading private wealth management firm, ran an ad in the Wall Street Journal with the headline “We may not be right for you.” The copy then explained the bank’s narrow customer focus and highly specialized services.

In the quest for maximizing revenue, many companies are afraid to make a similar leap. But as you design your journey to remarkable, one of the first questions you must answer is: who are we building this strategy for? Customer focus is a choice—and a critically important one. You must push yourself to go beyond the “affluent suburban soccer moms” target customer definition to get real clarity and granularity around which people in particular, under which specific set of conditions, are at the center of your bull’s-eyes. Notice the plural there: you likely have more than one target. You must also be able to articulate how your value proposition meets those customers in a unique, highly relevant, and remarkable way. With that precise definition you can build your strategies for the best-fit customers and be at peace with letting the ones go that aren’t right for you.

Out of either inertia, lack of experience, or fear, retailers, organizations, bloggers, and all sorts of individual artists often chase the largest possible audience. They want the most followers, the most traffic to their website, the largest addressable market, and other goals that have way more to do with quantity instead of quality. In turn they dilute their pitch to become just okay instead of remarkable. If you have a great product, are serving a wonderful social cause, or have an incredible story to be told or an amazing song in your heart, it’s natural to want to reach more customers. If you are investing a lot of resources in pursuit of building a customer base or an audience, you should be mindful of the scale required to achieve viability. Sometimes size does matter.

The flip side of gaining clarity and granularity around who is at the center of your bull’s-eye is also being crystal clear about who your product or service isn’t for. The siren song of growth at all costs may distract you and pull you away from your center. Resist the temptation. Being remarkable is often inherently linked to being, as Scott Galloway reminds us, “special, not big.” As you expand from those special qualities that first commanded certain customers’ attention, enrolled them fully in your mission, and motivated them to spread the word, you risk becoming less remarkable (or even alienating) to what I call “obsessive core customers” because what it takes to reach a wider audience waters down what made you successful in the first place."

Free webinar – How to perform an internal audit remotely (new date)

Webinar session on Thursday, June 25, 2020 is fully booked. So, another session was set-up for Wednesday, June, 24, 2020.

Webinar designed for internal auditors for ISO 9001, ISO 14001, ISO 27001, and other ISO management standards. The webinar explains what changes must be made, and what risks and obstacles must be considered during the preparation, performance, and reporting of a remote internal audit.

• What can be remotely audited during an internal audit
• What are the differences between remote and on-site audits
• Which tools to use
• What risks can be found and how to overcome them

You can register here.

One of the slides is about the big picture:

"Many customer purchases are motivated by what seems like two paradoxical forces: the desire to be distinctive and the desire to belong. At one level, we value our uniqueness and we hope that we won’t be seen as only a number in the system or blindly following the crowd. While we may want to hide or conform sometimes, most of us want to feel special a good deal of the time.

As much as we have a strong need for individuation, few of us want to be seen as outcasts or profoundly weird either. We want to feel connected to the people whose relationships we value, whose opinions influence us, and whose affirmation we crave. The sense of fitting in with the “right” group of people colors many of our actions and goes a long way to explaining the “people like us do things like this” phenomenon.

Accordingly, we are unlikely to do something that might cause us to risk our sense of belonging with those whose opinions we care about. We won’t do anything that will evoke a “what the heck were you thinking?” look or comment. Once we feel reasonably comfortable that our sense of belonging is secure—and even better, that we might receive affirmation—then our mindset shifts to more specific individual concerns that reinforce our uniqueness and serve to make us feel special.

In short, no customer wants to be average, and the way the digital revolution has manifested, no customer has to be."

Trechos retirados do capítulo 16 "Essential #5: Personal" de Remarkable Retail.

Como poderá funcionar um negócio baseado na hipótese de Mongo?

"One of the byproducts of the pandemic has been to accelerate a series of trends that were already in motion; this includes our consumption habits. Buying “less but better” has become a popular mantra in recent years due to concerns about sustainability and waste. And in the past couple of months this talk has escalated: in lockdown people are reflecting on what they actually want and need – plus, in many cases, they have less money to spend. [Moi ici: É um discurso que há anos é partilhado entre algumas marcas, como a Patagonia, e os seus clientes. Lembro-me de uma campanha em que clientes mostravam-se a usar peças com mais de 20 anos. Agora daí até ser mainstream... a minha mulher passa na Baixa do Porto ao final da tarde e diz-me que a única loja com fila à porta, todos os dias, é a Bershka. No entanto, não o nego é uma tendência em linha com a hipótese de Mongo]

...

More considered buying is good and necessary – the fashion, design, cosmetics, technology and other industries produce too much stuff and churn through trends at alarming rates – but I do wonder about the ripples that a rethink will cause.

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Brands and factories make their money from manufacturing and selling lots of things. If shoppers are buying fewer products, adjustments will need to be made. Will there be a general hike in prices – and quality – to accommodate consumer preferences? Will brands need to increase product margins in order to make the same amount of money from selling fewer items? Is fast fashion as we know it slowing? This moment of reckoning comes with fewer products – but lots of questions." [Moi ici: A acreditar na tendência da hipótese de Mongo, no futuro teremos cada vez mais marcas, teremos cada vez mais tribos, teremos fábricas cada vez mais pequenas. Sim Pedro, concordo consigo, nem sei se as poderemos chamar de fábricas, talvez ateliês, talvez cooperativas. Façamos um exercício: sem custos afundados, começando com uma folha em branco, como poderá funcionar um negócio baseado na hipótese de Mongo?]

Seth Godin fez-me ver que o mundo económico do século XX foi criado pelos industrialistas que criaram um modelo que servia os seus interesses económicos legítimos. A produção em massa beneficiava-os, mas os consumidores também tinham acesso a produtos escassos a um preço acessível. 

Num mundo de escassez quem manda é quem produz.

Contudo, assim que a oferta passou a ser maior que a procura, momento que simbolicamente associo à entrada dos micro-Hondas no Portugal da primeira metade dos anos 70 do século passado, o poder começou a passar para os consumidores, e os industrialistas têm de se submeter, a menos que comandem uma marca associada a escassez, ou a uma tribo.

Trechos retirados de "Cap and trade"