Monopólios locais

Ontem a leitura de um texto chamou-me a atenção para o uso do termo "monopólios locais" por Warren Buffet. Desconfiado do significado fiz uma pesquisa na internet e confirmei que está em sintonia com o nosso mote:

Promotor da concorrência imperfeita, dos monopólios informais e das rendas anormais

Em "A Warren Buffett Insight: Buy Monopoly-Like Situations" encontrei:

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price
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As it were, these wonderful companies can be seen as a kind of monopolies.
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Investing in a monopoly is thus a very attractive thing for an investor. Monopolies necessarily tend to make for wonderful businesses. Businesses which are highly protected from competition. Businesses which exhibit pricing power. Businesses whose prices are decoupled from their costs, [Moi ici: Como não pensar logo no exemplo alemão ou das PME portuguesas] and thus their margins can be as large as the market will bear. Businesses which gain from technological advancements instead of having to pass on those gains to their customers through cost arbitrage.
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[Moi ici: Recordar o que escrevemos sobre a beleza dos monopólios informais radicarem na mente dos clientes, em "Monopólios, eu gosto muito deles", "Quem é que ainda liga ao "princípio da eficiência económica"?" ou "Discriminação do preço"] For instance, broadly defined soft drinks are far from a monopoly: there are literally hundreds of different brands viying for the consumers' attention. Yet, when you sit in a bar and you ask for a Coke, you won't consider a Pepsi unless there's no Coke. You won't mind if there's RC Cola at half the price. You won't even want to know the price. Coca-Cola  thus has a monopoly in selling you those Cokes.
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I would thus go further and expand what a monopoly can include powerful brands. Powerful brands can create monopolies because only Apple can sell you an Apple product. If you want a Coke, you can only get it from Coca-Cola."

Curiosidade do dia

"Sr Ministro, Sr Ministro, Sr Ministro, Sr Ministro, Sr Ministro, Sr Ministro, hoje o Governo não trabalha?"

Outro teste do tempo!!!

"A indústria têxtil e de vestuário (ITV) Dá como certo o resultado acima de cinco mil milhões de euros nas exportações em 2016, um crescimento homólogo a rondar os 5%
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A confirmar-se, o sector, com seis mil empresas e que emprega perto de134 mil pessoas - equivale a 20% do emprego da indústria transformadora - antecipa o "cenário de ouro" para as exportações que o Plano Estratégico para o "Cluster Têxtil e Moda 2020", divulgado em Setembro de 2014, previa  para o final da década. E volta assim ao pico das vendas ao exterior, registado em 2001 (preços correntes), agora com quase metade das empresas e dos trabalhadores."  

Recordo Acerca de uma previsão (Dezembro de 2014).

Apetece dizer um palavrão!

O anónimo da província consegue acertar quando os gurus e técnicos com acesso aos números e pagos ... falham em toda a linha!



Recomendo a leitura prévia de Evolução do desemprego, o que os Baptistas da Silva não lhe dizem... nem o governo (parte VIII) (Maio de 2015). Agora, ao estilo dos artigos científicos: sugestão de pesquisa para quem tem acesso aos números.

Dizer que o sector tem agora quase metade das empresas que tinha em 2001 é, se calhar, dar uma ideia enganadora do que aconteceu. O sector não perdeu metade das empresas. O sector perdeu muito mais. O que vemos ao longo dos anos é o somatório das empresas novas menos as encerradas menos as insolventes. O que gostava de ver era um índice de turbulência do sector ao longo dos anos: somar as novas empresas mais as encerradas e mais as falidas excluindo as que se mantiveram. Penso que esse índice daria uma ideia mais clara da transformação que o sector teve de sofrer.

BTW, querem ver outra guerra ganha por este anónimo?

"Sobre as perspectivas para 2017 ... antevê um ano cheio de incertezas que podem baralhar as contas.
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Vaz aponta "às medidas proteccionistas" de Trump"

As ideias proteccionistas de Trump têm uma consequência positiva, acabam com as veleidades proteccionistas de tantos na última década. Recordar:

• Ainda podia ser melhor (Janeiro de 2011)
• Arrepiante (Outubro de 2010)

Trechos retirados de "Têxtil faz aposta tripla para exportações em 2017" (JdN)

Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte XXI)

Ontem, na parte XX, escrevi sobre:

"Let’s take the connected toilet, which will have myriad sensors with the quality output of a diagnostic laboratory and could analyse all human refuse. It will tell someone they’re about to get sick before they show any symptoms
...
That’s one reason why IBM is working on “lab on a chip” technology. “The breakthrough here,” IBM’s Gil told me, “is that we can separate particles at a nanolevel, which will allow us to discriminate between chemicals in the body at an very high level of accuracy at a very low level of cost. That will enable us to diagnose disease even before there are any symptoms.”"

Entretanto, ao final do dia, encontrei "Criado um laboratório de diagnóstico do tamanho de um chip":

"Investigadores norte-americanos criaram um chip electrónico que pode ser usado como um laboratório de diagnóstico em miniatura pelo preço de apenas um cêntimo, usando uma impressora de jacto de tinta vulgar.
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O “laboratório num chip” pode permitir diagnósticos médicos mais rápidos e mais baratos, beneficiando sobretudo países em desenvolvimento, onde poderão ser descobertos precocemente casos de cancro, malária, tuberculose ou VIH, cuja mortalidade é superior do que em países desenvolvidos."

Impressionante a velocidade a que as coisas acontecem

Boas notícias e uma explicação contrária

Embora esteja de acordo com as medidas económicas tomadas pelo anterior governo não acredito que elas tenham muito a ver com este desempenho positivo do sector transaccionável:

In #Portugal the economy is recovering thanks to broad structural reform agenda: says latest #OECD report https://t.co/2EDugFyPG8 pic.twitter.com/igPMQeWhLH

— OECD Economics (@OECDeconomy) February 6, 2017

Recordo sempre o que escrevi sentado numa esplanada em Valpaços em Maio de 2011:

"Se me vendem a redução da TSU para tornar as empresas que exportam mais competitivas não engulo. Tirando o caso das commodities, associadas a grandes empresas, o preço não é o order-winner das nossas exportadoras."

BTW, apesar do sucesso da competitividade portuguesa depois da adesão ao euro,  já não somos um país low cost:

Imagens retiradas de "Economic Survey of Portugal 2017"

Os ecossistemas da procura a mudarem

"El tándem compañía de moda e influencer gana peso. Las campañas con prescriptores de tendencias en la Red fueron utilizadas por el 65% de las empresas de moda, según un estudio elaborado por la consultora de márketing Launchmetrics. Las acciones con individuos muy seguidos en redes sociales también funcionaron para elevar la visibilidad de las empresas implicadas en el 84% de los casos.
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Instagram es la red social de referencia en la industria. El 97% de todas las interacciones ocurridas durante la Semana de la Moda de Nueva York en otoño se produjeron en esta plataforma. Una de cada tres compañías lanzó sus campañas con influencers a través de Instagram. Facebook es la segunda red favorita para mostrar acciones con celebridades de Internet para un 17% de los encuestados, seguida muy de cerca por los blogs y Youtube, los preferidos para un 15% y 14% del sector. Sólo un 10% de los consultados señaló a Snapchat como su red social predilecta para este tipo de actividades."

Quando falamos de ecossistemas da procura e do papel crescente dos influenciadores é disto que falamos.

Trechos retirados de "La moda se rinde ante los ‘influencers’: el 65% de las empresas hicieron colaboraciones en 2016"

Curiosidade do dia

Em "Marine Le Pen apresenta 144 medidas para “dar voz ao povo”" descubram uma medida que este "PCP defende que agenda de esquerda para uma década depende do PS" não apoiaria.

Não, não vale considerar as relacionadas com a imigração. Com o PCP no poder as leis seriam antes para evitar a emigração. Ninguém quer emigrar para a Venezuela pois não?

Mesmo agora os refugiados que para cá vêm não conseguem ficar cá muito tempo e fogem logo que podem.

Acerca do padrão americano

Recordar:

• Acima do padrão americano (Julho de 2013)
• O custo de arriscar (Dezembro de 2009)

E agora números mais recentes em "What Are The Real Small Business Survival Rates?":

"The latest data from the Small Business Administration (SBA) states that nearly 66 percent of small businesses will survive their first two years. That means only about one third of total businesses will actually fail in these first two crucial years, the main cause being a lack of experience. When the data is extrapolated four years out, the number of surviving businesses has been consistently near the 55 to 60 percent mark. This same data shows a five year survival rate that has historically hovered around the 50 percent mark, a far cry from the 80 to 90 percent failure rate so commonly claimed.
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Rather than 9 out of 10 businesses failing, as is commonly stated, the data shows us that approximately 50 percent will actually survive through their first five years. But even this information is open to interpretation, depending on what you define as a “failure.” As anybody who investigates this information further can see, there's a large difference between the approximately 33 percent of businesses that failed financially (or were shut down through legal action) and the nearly 17 percent those that were closed voluntarily. The SBA data combines these statistics, misleading one into believing that the failure rates are actually much higher than they are."

Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte XX)

 Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X, parte XI, parte XII, parte XIII, parte XIV, parte XV, parte XVI, XVII, XVIII e parte XIX.

Acerca da Internet das coisas:

"Connecting things matters because seemingly separate worlds start to collide. Disruptions caused by the technology revolution start to overlap and interact in ways we may not imagine. Connected ‘stuff’ has an impact on where we live and work, our shopping, retail distribution, media feeds, pricing algorithms, and on product distribution and manufacturing in a non-linear way.
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Previously irrelevant industries and data points become a new core focus of an industry.
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Let’s take the connected toilet, which will have myriad sensors with the quality output of a diagnostic laboratory and could analyse all human refuse. It will tell someone they’re about to get sick before they show any symptoms and it will have a DNA digital signature of each household member to warn of potentially life-threatening illnesses. A connected toilet could do this without people having to change a single life habit. It would just do it. Who wouldn’t want to get an early detection of cancer? All of a sudden toilet manufacturing becomes an important business alliance for the medical industry."

Agora, conjuguemos estes trechos retirados de "The Great Fragmentation : why the future of business is small" de Steve Sammartino, com "Over The Next 5 Years, IBM Sees Atoms Fusing With Bits To Create New Insights":

"One of the most important challenges our economy faces today is rising healthcare costs.
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Better and cheaper laboratory testing may be part of the answer.
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That’s one reason why IBM is working on “lab on a chip” technology. “The breakthrough here,” IBM’s Gil told me, “is that we can separate particles at a nanolevel, which will allow us to discriminate between chemicals in the body at an very high level of accuracy at a very low level of cost. That will enable us to diagnose disease even before there are any symptoms.”
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Another benefit is that since data coming from labs on a chip will be digital, it will be easy to integrate with wearable technology, allowing medical professionals to monitor patients in real time, rather than only when they are able to come to the doctor’s office or lab."

Mongo já cá está. Preparem-se para ouvir a Antral dos médicos e dos laboratórios

"there’s no way of defining a well-adapted organism except in retrospect"

Um trecho curioso retirado de "How Life (and Death) Spring From Disorder":

"Adaptation here has a more specific meaning than the usual Darwinian picture of an organism well-equipped for survival. One difficulty with the Darwinian view is that there’s no way of defining a well-adapted organism except in retrospect. The “fittest” are those that turned out to be better at survival and replication, but you can’t predict what fitness entails. Whales and plankton are well-adapted to marine life, but in ways that bear little obvious relation to one another.
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England’s definition of “adaptation” is closer to Schrödinger’s, and indeed to Maxwell’s: A well-adapted entity can absorb energy efficiently from an unpredictable, fluctuating environment. It is like the person who keeps his footing on a pitching ship while others fall over because she’s better at adjusting to the fluctuations of the deck. Using the concepts and methods of statistical mechanics in a nonequilibrium setting, England and his colleagues argue that these well-adapted systems are the ones that absorb and dissipate the energy of the environment, generating entropy in the process."

A fazer recordar as simulações de Lindgren que aprendi com Beinhocker, as estratégias nunca são eternas e são contextuais. E a fazer recordar os não-fragilistas, aqueles que se preparam para o pior. E a segunda lição da teoria dos jogos:

"Lesson #2: Rational choice, chosing a dominant strategy, can lead to outcomes that suck,"

"The industrial age was about limiting the scope of choices"

Quando penso em Mongo penso nesta mudança de paradigma e nas suas consequências:

"The industrial age was about limiting the scope of choices. This was accepted since the need to gather costly information and to communicate with low quality and expensive tools was minimized. Furthermore, as the scope of decision-making and action was narrowed, the learning requirements for workers and customers were limited, reducing the transaction costs of work. The efficiency contribution of mass production was in fact derived from these lower information- and communication-related costs.
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Today, in contrast to people being content with limited choices, offerings as problem definitions and solutions to problems are created on-demand to meet diverse, sometimes unique requirements.
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The context matters more than ever. The easier the access that people have to one another and to (different) information is, the more possibilities there are."

Mongo é acerca de uma explosão crescente de opções de escolha que vão dar cabo da noção de sociedade herdada da Revolução Francesa e da Revolução Industrial.

Vamos ver desaparecer a ideia de referencial, de família-modelo, de média como uma boa representação da sociedade.

Trechos retirados de "Interactive competence".

Curiosidade do dia

A 2 de Janeiro de 2016 em "O não-fragilista prepara-se para os problemas" escrevi:

"Os fragilistas partem do princípio que o pior não vai acontecer e, por isso, desenham planos que acabam por ser irrealistas ou pouco resilientes. Depois, quando as coisas acontecem, chega a hora de culpar os outros pelos problemas que não souberam prever, não quiseram prever, ou que ajudaram a criar."

Hoje, quase chorei com este gráfico que o @nticomuna mostrou no Twitter:

Entretanto, Nicolau Santos, profeta-mor do fragilismo vem culpar os outros:

O problema é reduzir tudo a custos

Neste vídeo Portas, como grande comunicador, resume de forma simples o problema de Trump com o comércio internacional:

• a China exporta quase 4 vezes mais do que o que importa dos Estados Unidos; e
• a Europa exporta 2,5 vezes mais do que o que importa dos Estados Unidos.

Este texto da consultora BCG, "Honing US Manufacturing’s Competitive Edge",  resume bem a mentalidade que encurralou os Estados Unidos nesta situação:

"Judging from the recent political furor over US factory jobs going to Mexico, one might get the impression that the US is facing another exodus of manufacturers. In fact, the opposite is true. Offshoring has dropped dramatically, particularly with regard to the world’s biggest workshop: China. [Moi ici: Algo que teams relatado aqui nos últimos anos]
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The main reason for this change is economics. As The Boston Consulting Group has documented, the cost competitiveness of US manufacturing has been improving significantly over the past decade, compared with many of its biggest trading partners—most notably China. [Moi ici: Esta concentração nos custos é doentia para um país que comanda a produção de conhecimento]
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In terms of direct costs, in fact, the US playing field is essentially level with Yangtze River Delta, China’s chief production zone. Despite the recent weakening of the yuan, and factoring in the differences in productivity and energy costs, China’s manufacturing cost advantage over the US shrank from 14% in 2004 to an insignificant 1% in 2016, according to our analysis of data collected for the BCG Global Manufacturing Cost- Competitiveness Index. When indirect costs for shipping, inventory, and other expenses are included, it is now less costly to manufacture a wide variety of goods in the US if that is where they will be consumed."

Como se o problema da indústria americana fosse de custos ... como é que a seguir podem vir dizer que os alemães fazem batota?

BTW, acham que Portugal ainda é um país low cost?

BTW 2, comparando os desempenhos das economias italiana e alemã e os respectivos custos industriais... fica fácil de perceber que o problema não são os custos de per si, o problema é o do que é que se produz, com que valor acrescentado, com esses custos.

A farmácia do futuro (parte VI)

Parte V, parte IV, parte III, parte II e parte I.

Recordo também o primeiro postal aqui escrito com o marcador "farmácia": "Estava escrito nas estrelas..."(Abril de 2007).

Na mesma tendência, "Farmacêuticos vão ter formação para oferecerem mais serviços":

"Os farmacêuticos vão ter formação para que as farmácias possam oferecer mais serviços aos utentes, como previsto no acordo assinado hoje entre a Associação de Farmácias de Portugal e os ministérios da Saúde e das Finanças.
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Entre as medidas constam a possibilidade de alargamento da dispensa de medicamentos hospitalares a mais áreas terapêuticas, a assistência farmacêutica permanente ou aconselhamento farmacêutico, serviços de intervenção em saúde pública (como os programas de troca de seringas, vacinação contra a gripe, entre outros)."

Pena que o mesmo racional não se aplique à área da educação.

Para reflexão

Julgo que já escrevi sobre o tema aqui no blogue. Um estudante tira um curso de engenharia, vai para uma empresa e ao fim de 6 meses põem-no a chefiar uma secção à frente de 10/15 homens. No entanto, ao longo de todo o curso nunca estudou uma disciplina que abordasse a temática da liderança  ou da gestão de pessoas.

Depois, encontro estes números e fico a pensar:

"So much depends upon managers. For example, a Gallup study found that at least 70% of the variance in employee engagement scores is driven by who the boss is. This is disconcerting because the same research found that about 70% of people in management roles are not well equipped for the job. This state of affairs is hurting not just employee engagement and quality of life, but also corporate performance.
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Most companies understand the importance of having highly effective managers, but few invest heavily in training to help them get there."

Trecho retirado de "What Great Managers Do Daily"

E na sua empresa, como é?

"“There's an opportunity to do innovation in big companies,” says author and startup guru Eric Ries. “But very few big companies have done this really well. Amazon is one of them.”
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Amazon has figured out how to combine the entrepreneurial culture of a small company with the financial resources of a large one. And that allows it tackle problems most other companies can’t.
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“I know examples where a random Amazon engineer mentions ‘Hey I read about an idea in a blog post, we should do that,’” Eric Ries says. “The next thing he knows, the engineer is being asked to pitch it to the executive committee. Jeff Bezos decides on the spot.”
A key factor in making this work, Ries says, is that experiments start small and grow over time. At a normal company, when the CEO endorses an idea, it becomes a focus for the whole company, which is a recipe for wasting a lot of resources on ideas that don’t pan out. In contrast, Amazon creates a small team to experiment with the idea and find out if it’s viable. Bezos famously instituted the “two-pizza team” rule, which says that teams should be small enough to be fed with two pizzas. 
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Ries says that new teams get limited funding and clear milestones; if a team succeeds in smaller challenges, it’s given more resources and a larger challenge to tackle.
But Amazon doesn’t spend too much time on internal testing. “They prioritize launching early over everything else,” one engineer wrote in an epic 2011 rant comparing Amazon’s culture to other technology companies. Launching early with what Ries has dubbed a “minimum viable product” allows Amazon to learn as quickly as possible whether an idea that sounds good on paper is actually a good idea in the real world.
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Of course, this method isn’t foolproof; Amazon has had plenty of failures, like its disastrous foray into the smartphone market. But by getting a product into the hands of paying customers as quickly as possible and taking their feedback seriously, Amazon avoids wasting years working on products that don’t serve the needs of real customers."

Trechos retirados de "How Amazon innovates in ways that Google and Apple can't"

Curiosidade do dia

Excelente vídeo.

Acerca da orientação estratégica

"For you and your organization to be successful, it’s critical to understand how to set strategic direction. In looking at 100 companies, we find that more than 70 percent of successful businesses started from a process of strategic planning. Consider your current plan: is it a clear, concise and motivating driver of your daily activities? If not, sooner or later you will lose significant business to your competitors. Research out of Harvard Business School over a ten-year period showed that companies with clearly defined and well-articulated strategies on average, outperformed their counterparts by 304 percent in profit margin, 332 percent in total sales and 833 percent in total return to shareholders.
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As important as the plan itself is the thinking that goes into it. Market trends, customer value drivers and the competitive landscape will all continue to evolve at different rates, and at some point, your current strategies may need to evolve as well. If you only rely on what worked in the past and are unable to generate new insights, your products and services may become obsolete.
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Research shows that team members are 40 percent more committed when they believe their leader has a clear strategic direction.
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When a group of managers are not effective at setting strategic direction, the results can be devastating.
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There are three C’s to setting strong strategic direction for your business: clear, cut and concise.
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Clear. Setting strategic direction boils down to answering just two questions:
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1. What are you trying to achieve?
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2. How will you achieve it?
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[Cut] While not formally included in the job description, one of the main responsibilities of a leader is to act as the editor of the business. A good leader is continually monitoring products, services, processes and people’s habits for things to cut out if those things are no longer adding value.
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Think about your business: what areas should you edit—or cut off—from time, attention, people and budgets so you can add value in other areas?
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[Concise] Being concise heavily relies on the first two C’s: clear and cut. If there’s a lack of clarity in one’s thinking, and trade-offs or cuts haven’t been made, then it’s extremely difficult to be concise." 

Trechos retirados de "Strategic Direction"

Alterar a oferta (parte VI)

Parte V, parte IV, parte III e parte II.

"Yet while the internet forever changed shopping, the physical retail environment lagged behind.
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And over the next few years, the brick-and-mortar buying experience will change even more dramatically.
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"We had been operating for this idea that bigger is better, the superstore or supercenter. Now we’re seeing a shift away from that, brands closing their stores, reconsidering their footprint,"
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"At the highest level, you have more physical retail going into service,"
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places like sporting goods stores, once offering the value proposition of a large inventory of tennis rackets, are now getting into ancillary services, like the restringing of said rackets. Retailers are using services to make their brick-and-mortar locations more valuable in the face of online shopping.
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that cup of sugar you need from the store? That’s delivered. We go places for people, not things.[Moi ici: Uma ideia interessante]
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[Moi ici: Segue-se outra mensagem típica deste blogue] In a world based upon extremes, failure can often be found in the middle.[Moi ici: A polarização dos mercados e o pântano do meio-termo] Nobody likes lukewarm coffee. They want it steaming hot or poured over ice. Experts agree that retail is evolving the same way.
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"On the one hand, we will increasingly use digital services (ideally mobile apps) to purchase down-to-earth products—such as toilet paper, laundry soap, milk. I could imagine a kind of Amazon unlimited scheme that will constantly replenish our supply of toilet paper," says designer and MIT professor Carlo Ratti. "On the other hand, I see a blossoming of experiential shopping. Think about choosing fresh food produce: We will always enjoy going to a physical store where we can touch, smell, etc. The store, in turn, can become increasingly focused on providing us with unique experiences.""

Trechos retirados de "The Way You Shop Will Change Forever This Year. Here's How"

Outsider manda conselho para a FNOP

Nos últimos anos a agricultura portuguesa tem evoluído de forma muito positiva. No entanto, jornalistas que supostamente deveriam ser experts no tema continuam embebidos em cortisol:

"E que, se prosseguirmos por este caminho sem rumo, vamos continuar irremediavelmente a perder terreno para a concorrência cada vez mais aguerrida."

Eu, outsider, interrogo-me, será que a feira em causa no artigo é a mais adequada para os produtos portugueses?

Entretanto, por estes dias, vejo mais oportunidades para agricultura portuguesa!
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Por exemplo, em "Supermercados no Reino Unido estão a racionar legumes" e, sobretudo em "O preço da curgete triplicou e a culpa é do mau tempo" com:

"No Reino Unido, os supermercados estão a limitar a quantidade de brócolos, alface ou curgete por cliente devido à queda na produção destes produtos. A “culpa” é das baixas temperaturas que dizimaram a produção em Espanha, país onde o Reino Unido se abastece neste tipo de alimentos. Em Portugal não há prateleiras vazias
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“O caso de Inglaterra é muito mais preocupante. Em Portugal temos zonas em que houve estragos, mas quem alimenta o Reino Unido são os espanhóis”, sublinha.
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Num comunicado recente, a Fepex, federação espanhola de exportadores de frutas, legumes e flores, avisou que a produção de alguns vegetais será 60% mais baixa do que o normal e que a situação deverá manter-se até meados de Abril."

Eu, outsider, se fosse presidente da Federação Nacional das Organizações de Produtores de Frutas e Hortícolas (Fnop) metia-me num avião, ía a Inglaterra e fazia uma operação de charme junto dos ingleses.

E chamava-lhes a atenção para coisas como a relva alentejana. Não estão a ver? Vejam "Estratégia a sério na agricultura, ou make my day!"

“To be successful, you have to bring something to the table"

Excelente texto "This Man Explains Why 'Closed Market Japan' Is Bunk: 'It's The Selling That's Hard.'". O jornalismo de investigação passa por coisas como esta, fugir da lengalenga e lerolero e perguntar a gente com skin-in-the-game:

"he thinks the idea that Japan is a closed market is ridiculous. “It is much easier to bring cars into Japan than most other markets,” Hansson told me. “The hard part is selling the car when it’s in Japan.”
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“Strategically, Japan is a very important market for JLR. Being successful in one of the world’s most demanding markets holds a lot of prestige. It also is quite profitable because the import market to Japan is very high-end. What we sell is quite high up in the trim ladder in a quite lucrative model mix.”
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[Moi ici: Pensem no que escrevo sobre a falta de paciência estratégica dos gringos e a sua paranóia com um modelo em que o preço mais baixo é o factor crítico de sucesso] Ford threw in the towel last year in Japan, claiming, long before “alternative truths” became fashionable, that “Japan is the most closed, developed auto economy in the world.”
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“Japan is not an unusual market. Japan clearly is not more complicated than most other markets, and compared to America, it is less complicated.”
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“The U.S. is totally different. Very unique crash-test standards. The whole emission standards are different. The U.S. system is far more cumbersome than in Japan, it requires a large deal of re-engineering, changes in body structure, different blinker systems, and so forth. The Japanese system is clearly smoother for us. It doesn’t require massive re-engineering. From my global experience, the requirements of the U.S. are tougher.”
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“There is a lot of talk about Japan being closed. That’s blahblah – that is not the barrier. Those barriers can be much bigger in other markets like China, or America.
...
And then again, why are only 10% of registered cars in Japan imports, or 6% if you count in mini vehicles, or “kei” cars where there is (nearly) no foreign competition? Hansson recommended a closer study of the sales charts. What sells in Japan are high-end foreign cars. Premium cars is a low volume, big profit business. Japan’s biggest import-brand is Mercedes, closely followed by BMW. There are more Bentleys and Lamborghinis sold in Japan than Dodge or Chrysler units.
...
[Moi ici: O trecho que se segue encaixa-se no bê-à-bá da estratégia] If you want to make it as a car maker in Japan, you need to be aware “that the country has at least seven globally important carmakers, even more than Germany,” explained Hansson, “and they all are pretty good.” They have extensive distribution systems in Japan, they deliver cars make-to-order within a few weeks, they have plentiful parts and service. “To be successful, you have to bring something to the table the Japanese don’t have,” Hansson explained. The table of Japanese premium cars is pretty bare. ... If you are the “doctor, lawyer, or professional athlete” Hansson identified as his target group, and if you really want to show your status (which is not the Japanese thing to do) you need a foreign car. That market is not huge in numbers, but it is profitable, as Hansson conceded with a smile.
...
U.S. makers do not compete in that market.
...
the “doctor, lawyer, or professional athlete” would lose his clients or fans would he be seen in an Escalade. American cars have a reputation problem, explained Hansson, and reputation is big in Japan
...
you need to “have a consistent and long-term view on distribution, product lineup, brand strategy. You need patience and consistency, and that costs a lot of money. If you and I would start a new car company with one car that would revolutionize the world, Japan probably would not be the best place to start.”
...
[Moi ici: Dedicado aos Jerónimo e Martins] What Trump wants is not more exports, but fewer imports. He wants a closed market America, behind a wall with Mexico, and a 20% border tax, on top of the already onerous 25% “chicken tax” on light trucks, a market already ringed by non-tariff regulatory barriers only the big automakers can afford to scale. With that, the U.S. auto industry will lose its global competitiveness. Walls do that.[Moi ici: Leu isso aí Brasil?]

Ler também "Why GM struggles in Japan"

Curiosidade do dia

Entregues a isto:

Interessados?

Em processo de mudança de um paradigma da minha actividade profissional baseado em Estarreja para um novo baseado na zona do Porto-Gaia, procuro eventuais interessados em parceria para aluguer conjunto de espaço que possa funcionar como escritório para ambas as partes.

Interessados?

Que raio de sistema de gestão...

"You need a progressive segmentation! One-size-fits-all approaches are a waste of time. They mean that you overprice people who don't want to pay for your products and services and that you undercharge people who are deriving considerable value from what you do. You don't know the difference, and that is wasteful and costly. Having a segmentation built around geography and size is not much better, because these distinctions don't reveal much from a value perspective. You need end-user, needs-based segmentation."

Recordar:

• "É o que te chateia, é o que te cria desconforto no trabalho"
• Intercom on Jobs-to-be-Done (parte IV)
• Intercom on Jobs-to-be-Done (parte III)
• JTBD e estratégia
• Intercom on Jobs-to-be-Done (parte I)

Matéria-prima para reler durante viagem de comboio, para preparar sessão de kickoff de um novo projecto de transição ISO 9001:2015.

A transição ISO 9001:2015 na sua empresa não abordou o tema dos clientes-alvo ou do JTBD, ou da segmentação? Não? Que raio de sistema de gestão é que a sua empresa tem?

Trechos retirados de "Dollarizing Differentiation Value: A Practical Guide for the Quantification and the Capture of Customer Value" de Stephan M. Liozu.

Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte XIX)

 Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X, parte XI, parte XII, parte XIII, parte XIV, parte XV, parte XVI, XVII e XVIII.

Um tema super-fascinante é aquele que há anos aqui no blogue designamos por "é meter código nisso":

"Product = computer Once technology is so low cost that it’s disposable, it’s only natural for it to appear in disposable everyday products that, when they get thrown in the bin, the technology inside them goes in the trash too.
...
Smart computing on everyday devices will be as common as barcodes are now because barcodes will be replaced by these devices. But they will be more common, because these sensors will appear in products and places the barcode never infiltrated. At this point we’ll live in a world where the computer and the everyday product merge. It’s even foreseeable to have disposable screens on the backs of cereal packets. Packaged goods will equal computers."

Dois exemplos entre vários que o livro refere são:

"In the bathroom. I wake up and I brush my teeth. My new Oral-B toothbrush has a sensor in it — remember that products are computers now so I make sure that I brush my teeth for the required two minutes as recommended by Oral-B. But why would I do that? Because my dental plan gives me a 20 per cent discount, which is $300 a year if I do this in virtual currency. This is awesome for me because I get money and good oral hygiene. And my dental plan provider is happy because I’m a good customer due to my reduced medical risk. Oral-B are happy because I use my toothbrush more often and need a new one sooner. [Moi ici: Um ecossistema - pessoa, fornecedor da escova, companhia de seguros ou SNS] The sensor only works for three months (which is the recommended life of a manual toothbrush) so they get increased purchase frequency."

E:

"Health and fitness. It’s lunch time and I want to make sure I go for a run with my new geo-tracker-installed running shoes. I do this because I only get a new pair for free twice a year from my health insurance provider if I jog for 10 minutes at least three times a week. My health-insurance provider loves me for this because the biggest killer of middle-aged men such as me is cardiovascular disease. Every time I exercise, I’m reducing my risk to them. They’ve worked out an algorithm that calculates the reduced insurance payout per customer on calories burned and kilometres moved and the dollar cost of that reduction. I get free shoes (paid for by my health insurer), the sports shoe manufacturer sells more product and the insurance provider reduces its risk. Win, win, win."[Moi ici: Outro ecossistema]

Acerca da Educação em Mongo

Ontem o @walternatez no Twitter remeteu-me para este artigo "Why Apprenticeships Are Taking Off".

Uma feliz coincidência com a leitura matinal de "Mass Customization and Personalization in Education and Training" e em linha com o que costumo escrever acerca do futuro da escola em Mongo. Voltaremos a modelos do século XIX onde os empregadores financiarão a formação dos seus trabalhadores porque a formação em massa do século XX será cada vez mais incapaz de motivar e preparar gente para um mundo cada vez mais heterogéneo.

"“ … we transformed education into mass production at around the time we invented mass production of industrial goods. Perhaps at the time, it was sufficient to learn the three “Rs” in order to lead a useful life, perhaps it was just the mass number of people that had to pass through the educational mill. In any  case, when we democratized learning, we lost something as well as gained quite a lot. … The problem is that we now require more than basics in order to function in society. The jobs are more intellectually challenging, and the terrain is shifting too rapidly. You won’t work in the same job for a lifetime almost no matter what you do. … We have the technologies to expedite individuality again. The real question is whether we can transform the teaching environment from factory work to tutoring. That is a complicated social and personal issue.”
.
In the new paradigm, learning should be individualized, localized, and globalized with aims to create unlimited opportunities for students’ life long learning and for development of their contextualized multiple intelligence (CMI). Student is the centre of education. [Moi ici: Aqui sorrio ao recordar a faculdade que mudou o plano de cursos em 2015 e continua a não dar programação em Android, que é o que o mercado procura avidamente, para não deixar professores sem fazer nada. Por isso, continua a ensinar linguagens ultrapassadas] Students’ learning should be facilitated to meet their needs and personal characteristics, and develop their potentials particularly CMI in an optimal way. Students can be self- motivated and self- learning with appropriate guidance and facilitation, and learning is a self-actualizing, discovering, experiencing, and reflecting process." 

Quanto à falta de sex-appeal destes cursos, basta que mais estórias reais sejam divulgadas (como esta).

"“There is a stigma with this in the United States,” Kobes says, “in part by past practices of taking poorer and minority kids out of school and making them go to vocational school.”
.
In Europe, apprenticeships are so widespread, they’re not seen as a lesser choice. In fact, the average age of someone entering an apprenticeship in Europe is 17, says Seleznow, compared with 28 in the United States."[Moi ici: Cá em Portugal é mais comum ouvir nos meios de comunicação social gente que está contra este modelo pois, supostamente, para eles o ideal é todos saírem da escola com o mesmo percurso escolar]

Curiosidade do dia

Um cromo, "Mário Centeno: "Regresso às 35 horas não aumentou custos globais" com pessoal", com quem terá feito Matemáticas?

No entretanto: "Saúde reportou custo de 90 ME com 35 horas. Finanças apuram aumento de 19 ME"

Daí "Como fabricar um défice"

BTW, em Espanha os tótós precisam lá de um Centeno, "La reducción de jornada a 35 horas a los funcionarios de Andalucía y Castilla y León costaría 700 millones"

BTW2, recordar o que aqui se escreveu sobre os fragilistas: "Portugal pode estar em sarilhos em 2017"

O passado não é tão imutável como parece

Descobri a conta de Kevin Dulle no Twitter (@IdeaFreak) onde encontrei esta imagem:

E como um seixo atirado a um lago, o que ficou a ondular na minha mente foi aquele:

Talvez seja impossível mudar o passado e o que nos aconteceu.

No entanto, é sempre possível mudar a nossa interpretação sobre o que nos aconteceu. É sempre possível rever os acontecimentos e reinterpretá-los à luz do que entretanto aprendemos e vivemos.

Estou a lembrar-me, por exemplo, do funcionário que caiu no desemprego com o encerramento da fábrica que o empregava e que se viu obrigado a alargar a sua zona de conforto, sendo hoje empresário numa PME de sucesso. Estou a lembrar-me também da novata que caiu no desemprego para proteger o lugar dos mais antigos e que se transformou em empresária de sucesso.

"para fugir à erosão da competitividade"

Talvez a sua empresa possa precisar de um destes conselhos sobre alternativas estratégicas a seguir para fugir à erosão da competitividade:

" six specific strategies for breaking away and staying ahead of the pack, and I believe every business owner should implement at least one of these on a quarterly basis:
...
1. Target customers poorly served by current offerings.
The new strategy here is to focus on unmet new customer needs, rather than enhancing the offering you have -- product, price, promotion, and place (4Ps).
.
Competitors generally attack you on the 4Ps, so you need to find new territory like a cat, rather than rely only on dogfight survival.
.
2. Focus on different performance attributes.
Another strategy is to find new performance attributes that relate to unmet consumer needs, and lead your message with these. This is called breakout positioning, rather than mimicking competitors.
...
3. Substantially change the what, where, and how.
This strategy is called breakaway positioning, since it is intended to redefine how consumers see the product, by borrowing features drawn from an entirely different product category.
...
4. Use disruptive technologies to alter the value chain.
This powerful strategy is often called the Blue Ocean strategy, meant to conjure up the image of uncharted open waters rather than bloody red oceans with sharks fighting.
...
5. Expand the market to new domains.
New domains would include attracting business customers as well as individuals, taking your online business into retail, and diving into verticals.
.
This strategy opens up new growth opportunities without the dogfight of taking territory away from existing competitors. It also forces you into new innovative thinking.
.
6. Plan to disrupt your own business regularly.
Before the inevitable dogfights have diminished your growth and profitability, and sapped your resources, rally the business with a new "big bang" disruptive initiative, like Apple's highly successful iPad disrupted their own personal computer offerings."

Trechos retirados de "There's a Holy Grail of Long-Term Growth. Here's How to Achieve It"

Os nossos campeões escondidos

Quase todos os dias somos surpreendidos por estórias de empresas anónimas portuguesas que dominam o seu métier. Ontem mais dois casos:

• Tintex (Portuguesa Tintex junta cortiça às suas malhas e vence prémio na Alemanha) (aposta na inovação)
• TSF (Do perfume ao nuclear. Inovar a metalomecânica) (aposta no serviço)

No caso da TSF sublinho:

"A empresa faz o que o cliente quer, não produz grandes séries e não tem produto próprio.
...
“Somos uma metalúrgica de precisão, fazemos as peças técnicas para as máquinas e equipamentos e, nalguns casos, até montamos as máquinas aqui. Depois a componente informática é acrescentada pelo fabricante”"[Moi ici: As empresas não são entidades matemáticas, as empresas são organismos vivos e plenos de idiossincrasias. Sem pôr em causa as decisões da empresa, ouso lamentar que não se concentre na vertente "é meter código nisso", aí é que vai estar o valor acrescentado e o potencial de crescimento. Estranho sim que a seguir fale em Indústria 4.0]

Mongo e a customização dos carros (parte II)

Parte I.

Este surto de automatização "Businesses Ordered More Robots Last Year Than Ever Before" tem duas leituras:

• Por um lado, o atraso americano a entrar nesta onda;
• Por outro, um sintoma da continuação da paixão americana pelo preço, (Ver "Para recordar..."), quando alemães e japoneses já estão noutra fase.

"North American businesses ordered 35,000 robots in 2016, a 10% increase from 2015, according to a report on Tuesday by trade organization Robotic Industries Association."

Curiosidade do dia

"Os que querem resistir à transformação escondendo-se nas trincheiras das conquistas irreversíveis e dos proteccionismos desistem da História. A evolução das tecnologias e das economias implica que é na escala das redes empresariais globais que se decide a competitividade e o potencial de crescimento económico. Os que procuram na miragem do passado a água cristalina que lhes tire a sede ficam com a boca cheia de areia seca quando acaba a ilusão."

Trecho que faz uma boa ligação com o capítulo 15 "System hacking: a great idea with a bad reputation" de "The Great Fragmentation : why the future of business is small" de Steve Sammartino.

"Just as we had industrial culture, we’re now entering a phase of digital hacker culture. The tools we live with, around and inside of, such as the smartphone, computers, digital networks, the internet knowledge bank — the internet operating system, if you will — all open us up to a world of hacking systems, a world in which we can embark upon redesigning how things are done to suit ourselves. The tools that everyone has access to are the same ones being used to hack old, outdated industrial systems. They create new possibilities where if the industry itself does not reconfigure to suit the new world, it will be done for them.
...
An industry is a system that has been designed by the players of that industry. If there’s weakness in the system, the system will be hacked. The design, by definition, has to be for the maximisation of profits. It’s always been about benefiting the players within it. All systems change over time. Their structure is modified and the architecture renewed. We’re currently going through a radical
redesign of the industry system. It’s during these times that getting hacked has its highest probability. And we can add to that fact that others from outside the industry are most likely to be the ones doing the hacking.

Trecho inicial retirado de "A areia no fim da miragem"

Para reflexão

Muito sumo para alimentar uma reflexão em "Think Amazon Has The Lowest Price? This Leather Bag Is 49% Less At Burberry":

"Looking for the best deals on that hot “it” purse or that tony musk fragrance? Then you might want to skip Amazon.
.
It turns out department and specialty stores are cheaper than the online giant on a range of full-priced items, according to a study conducted by the International Council of Shopping Centers.
.
A comparison between the same 547 (nonsale) apparel, accessory and beauty products at 124 department and specialty stores across the country, such as Bloomingdale’s, Macy’s and Sephora, revealed that on an item-to-item basis, department and specialty stores were up to 30% cheaper than the online juggernaut."

Acho particularmente interessante a parte final:

"“I strongly believe that people buy from Amazon mostly because of non-price reasons — the ease of shopping via the website, the selection, the reliability of shipping, the speed of shipping, and the peace of mind that returning is very easy,”" 

"Because for them, your approach is a bad idea"

Para montar o cenário recordo:

• Não há almoços grátis: Há que optar (Julho de 2008)
• The Most Important Orders are... (Agosto de 2008)
• Justin Bieber e o preço da diferença (Novembro de 2010)
• Será maldade? (Maio de 2012)
• Aprender a ser mau (Agosto de 2012)
• Biever, Cyrus, IKEA ... e a sua empresa? (Outubro de 2013)
• Assim, talvez ter inimigos entre os clientes ou ex-clientes seja bom sinal (Maio de 2015)
• Não esquecer os "mas" (Setembro de 2015)
• "Because if nobody hates it, nobody loves it" (Novembro de 2016)

É importante fazer escolhas e quanto mais dolorosas melhor.

Assim, faz sentido considerar este conselho:

"Competition is a fact of life in startup land. A differentiated position in the market is vital. Good competitive positioning communicates to the world the set of assumptions one has to believe to envision your success.
...
Too often do we find competition framed in the context of better/faster/cheaper.  ... It fits a limited number of businesses that sell a commodity product.
...
My advice is to ignore better/faster/cheaper, and instead focus on a differentiator that your competitor would agree with. This is a subtle, but powerful move. If you get it right, your competition will actually reinforce your positioning. Why? Because for them, your approach is a bad idea. [Moi ici: E vice-versa] They love telling customers why you’re not really focused on the same thing they do. By trivializing what you do, they’re inadvertently spreading your gospel."

Trechos retirados de "How to stand out from your competition"

Acerca do futuro da impressão 3D (parte II)

Parte I.

"we exemplarily constructed four extreme scenarios by selecting the two projections which showed the lowest level of consensus among the experts (both have an interquartile range of 4.0): the impact of additive manufacturing on firm's business models (Projection 8) and on consumer distribution channels (Projection 12). We built two development continuums, spanning between the trajectories expressed by these two projections. Fig. 6 illustrates the scenario axes and resulting scenarios. The qualitative expert comments helped us characterize the resulting scenarios in more detail.

The horizontal axis derives from Projection 8: For those experts who agree on it, additive manufacturing can be regarded as just another production technology requiring novel knowledge and skills, but mainly improving the operational excellence of a company. While some operations may change drastically, the operating model of the company will remain the same. For those rejecting this projection, however, established business models will be disrupted by additive manufacturing, demanding incumbents to make radical changes.
...
The vertical axis builds on Projection 12, which covers one of the most frequently debated implications of additive manufacturing. The experts believing in this projection foresee a strong change in consumer behavior: Instead of acquiring physical products, consumers will utilize online databases to download product designs for self-printing, either purchasing the file (similar to downloading a music file in an online music store) or using a sharing model with open-source designs. Experts rejecting this projection, however, expect that also in 2030, products produced via additive manufacturing will be purchased as physical objects via established online or offline channels.
...
Combining these two axes, we derive four possible scenarios. The extreme Scenario 1 combines the exploitation model with a new distribution model. Here, a company uses the efficiency of selling online files instead of exporting products to test new foreign markets, but also to cover niches of demand in established regions. Once a market is established, however, the products will be sold via a conventional business model (moving to Scenario 3). Scenario 2 combines the two extreme positions of an exploration strategy with a distribution model via online file-sharing. In this model, the business model of the company shifts fundamentally. A former manufacturer becomes a pure “designer” (providing the digital print files only). The core job of the company here is to guarantee the “3D printability” of the files. For its revenue model, it has to utilize new forms of intellectual property protection to allow for value capture.[Moi ici: E qual a vantagem de ser empresa?]
.
Scenario 3 is the most conservative setup where additive manufacturing is mainly used to support an established business. The case of spare parts, as discussed before, can be placed here. Another option is to utilize additive manufacturing for the manufacture of niche products which are not economically feasible with conventional manufacturing models. Finally, Scenario 4 builds on the idea of mass customization, i.e. providing an individual product for every consumer, but with mass production efficiency. The business model of the company, hence, shifts drastically. Instead of forecasting product demand and producing it on stock, all operational activities are purely reactive, staring with the individual demand of each single customer."

Pessoalmente sinto-me atraído por um modelo que se assemelhe aos alfaiates e modistas do passado. "Qualquer pessoa" podia fazer um vestido/fato em casa. No entanto, as pessoas recorriam a um alfaiate/modista onde tinham oportunidade de conjugar (co-criar) o seu gosto, as suas dimensões, com a expertise d@ técnic@.

Um exemplo de polarização de mercados

Um exemplo daquilo a que se chama a polarização do mercado. Clientes underserved e overserved em desenvolvimento simultâneo num mesmo mercado:

"A growing segment of the U.S. population is making a significant sacrifice for physical fitness, and not just in sore muscles and pre-dawn wake-ups. More and more people are paying hundreds of dollars a month, or thousands a year, for personal workouts, special classes, and ever more luxurious gyms.
...
By contrast, the average American spends a minuscule amount on getting in shape. Almost one-fifth of Americans are health club members, and the average U.S. club dues are $54 a month, or 1.2 percent of median household income, according to the latest data from the International Health, Racquet & Sportsclub Association, or Ihrsa, the fitness industry trade group.
...
While midmarket clubs barely gained members, the number of budget club members grew 69 percent in 2015 alone, Ihrsa estimated last year. Much of this growth is driven by franchising, a trend that has brought outside money to the fitness industry."

Empresas com futuro escolhem o seu segmento e não tentam ser tudo para todos.

Trechos retirados de "Why You’re Paying So Much to Exercise"

Curiosidade do dia

Interessante este decoupling revelador. Por um lado, "Confiança dos consumidores no nível mais elevado desde 2000". Por outro lado:

Acerca das "electronic cottage industries"

Ao ler "These Fashion Startups Offer The Prestige Of "Made In Italy" Without Inflated Prices" pensei seriamente numa pergunta que fiz a um empresário do calçado acerca de um ano.

- E se os seus trabalhadores mais exímios começassem a trabalhar em casa por conta própria fazendo sapatos topo de gama?

A pergunta foi rapidamente chutada para canto:

- Não têm as máquinas, não têm os contactos.

OK. Agora leiam o artigo. Não me custa nada pensar num contacto destes a chegar e a propor uma cooperativa de operários, a financiar a compra de máquinas não industriais, a financiar a compra da matéria-prima.

A fábrica deste texto produzirá 300/400 pares por dia mas um operário artesão destes se fizer por mês 40 a 50 pares por mês talvez ganhe mais do que como operário.

Esta tendência insere-se naquilo a que designo por Mongo (Estranhistão), um voltar aos sistemas dinâmicos pré-revolução industrial agora que a internet matou a geografia e a tecnologia permite séries muito pequenas de forma relativamente económica.

Como não recuar ao princípio dos anos 80 do século XX e a Alvin Toffler e às suas "electronic cottage industries".

Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte XVIII)

 Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X, parte XI, parte XII, parte XIII, parte XIV, parte XV, parte XVI, e XVII.

Os trechos que se seguem permitem enquadrar a importância da competição feroz pelos assistentes virtuais "We put Siri, Alexa, Google Assistant, and Cortana through a marathon of tests to see who's winning the virtual assistant race — here's what we found":

"Our connected technology needs to split into smaller fragments to provide a more independent function, just as our industrial gadgets did. The fragmented nature of the web of things will enable technology to get on with its job of augmentation without needing our attention. It will be a welcome relief and will make technology more human than it currently is. Maybe our ears will become the killer app (for humans), instead of our hands and eyes, as in the movie Her. In this movie the interactions are largely verbal and without many screens. Screens are only present when needed via a head-up display or holographic image. The screens themselves as a form of hardware are no longer. For the web of things to flip to a service rather than a burden it needs to be more like the movie Her and less like the movie Minority Report. It needs to be the bellwether for screen redundancy. The next stage for the ‘thingternet’ is for it to become invisible. It has to be more like electricity, water and gas are in our homes, in business and in modern civilised geographies in general. Companies that enable and promote this shift will be the biggest beneficiaries of the third phase of the web. It’s early days and the prize is big."

Acerca do futuro da impressão 3D (parte I)

Uma lista de tendências para 2030 prevista por experts acerca da impressão 3D:

Quanto às mais prováveis:

"The scenario cluster for the most probable future contains those projections  evaluated by the expert panel with the highest probability of occurrence in 2030 and a sufficient amount of certainty between the expert evaluations. For a narrow version of the most probable scenario we took those projections (5, 14, 16, and 17) showing both a high degree of certainty among experts' evaluations (three projectionswith interquartile range larger than 2.0, and onewith 2.5) and having a sufficient probability of occurrence (larger than 55%). If looking at a broader scenario, Projections 9 and 12 can also be included, which show a relatively high estimated probability of occurrence, but their estimations are fraught with uncertainty (interquartile range of 3.0 and 4.0, respectively)."

Continua.

Trechos retirados de "Predicting the future of additive manufacturing: A Delphi study on economic and societal implications of 3D printing for 2030"

Alterar a oferta (parte V)

Parte IV, parte III e parte II.

Por um lado este texto acerca do retalho em Espanha "Consumo: como as lojas de moda sofreram com a crise". Por outro lado, este sobre o retalho nos Estados Unidos "The Nation's Biggest Retailers Face An Inconvenient Truth: An Imperiled Profit Model".

Se calhar isto não é por causa de nada de conjuntural mas sim por algo de estrutural: o desmoronar de um modelo de negócio.

Clientes a mudar, ofertas a mudarem, canais a mudarem, ... cadeia de fabrico a mudar.

Curiosidade do dia

Recordar esta outra Curiosidade do dia e depois ler "Valor da exportação de medicamentos duplicou esta década".

E meter na cabeça que os macacos não voam ponto.

macacos trepam às árvores.

Sintomas (parte II)

Este texto "Hays: "Empresas devem preparar-se para cenário de escassez de profissionais"" relaciono-o com esta tendência "Sintomas".

Ao qual se pode acrescentar:

• Fábrica de sapatos já em funcionamento
• investimento francês ajuda a escoar produtos
• Paços de Ferreira criou 2.500 postos de trabalho nos últimos três anos

Até este fenómeno, no outro lado do mundo, "Mão-de-obra estrangeira no Japão supera um milhão de pessoas pela primeira vez em 2016" está relacionado.

Se puderem procurem o comentário de Nicolau Santos no noticiário das 13h de hoje na Antena 1. Ainda que seja um apoiante encarniçado da situação, a sua cegueira de lisboeta fechado numa torre de marfim, impede-o de ver a transformação que está a ocorrer em Portugal a nível do emprego.

Porque nascem os hábitos

Para um apreciador da filosofia de comando e alinhamento por trás da blitzkrieg o texto levanta dúvidas. Dúvidas que depois diminuem quando o autor entra com variáveis como motivação e a complexidade (ou será obliquidade?) do objectivo.

E recordo os tempos mágicos dos anos 90 em que estudava o que a NASA tinha feito a nível de implementação da ISO 9001 nos seus centros. Ainda hoje me lembro, figurativamente, que eles não davam a comida na boca, eles mastigavam a comida na boca e só depois é que a davam. Queriam correr o menor risco possível de que algo fosse mal interpretado.

Para reflexão, recomendo a leitura de "When to Set Rigid Goals, and When to Be Flexible".

Num outro registo (?) algo em sintonia com a leitura de Charles Duhigg "The Power of Habit":

"While there’s no doubt that a flexible approach encouraged more people to adopt the goal, that same flexibility actually hindered the goal’s completion. But why?
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The answer, it seems, has to do with the limits of people’s decision-making ability. According to a variety of sources, we are required to make as many as 35,000 decisions a day. So in the context of an already information-overloaded, decision-fatigued workforce, one thing people will likely appreciate is the need to make fewer, not more, decisions. And that’s exactly what a rigid approach to goal pursuit offers. By setting a predetermined sequence for the achievement of a goal, the number of unnecessary “decision points” that arise when people pursue a plan is reduced or perhaps eliminated completely. As a result, a goal both becomes more likely to be achieved and potentially feels easier in the process." [Moi ici: Não se fiquem por este trecho só ou levam uma parte incompleta, truncada da reflexão. O trecho é só sobre o porque nascem os hábitos, para reduzir a quantidade de decisões conscientes que temos de fazer]