Ficar na Terra do Nunca

Nunca li a estória do Peter Pan num livro. Aos 8 anos comecei a ler aqueles “patinhas” brasileiros com as histórias das personagens da Disney. Aí comecei a encontrar pequenas estórias, episódios, do Peter Pan na Terra do Nunca com a Wendy, os Meninos Perdidos o Capitão Gancho.

Há tempos descobri que o autor escreveu o livro com camadas de significados a envolver as personagens. Porquê não li o livro escapou-me tanta coisa sobre a vida interior das personagens. Claro que o Capitão Gancho tem medo do crocodilo, quem não tem medo de um crocodilo a correr atrás de si? Mas um crocodilo com um relógio na barriga? Tic Tac Tic Tac. Gancho é cada um de nós com medo da morte que se aproxima inexoravelmente. 

Eu, que gosto tanto de metáforas, já arranjei mais uma para as PMEs e para mim. Peter Pan, a criança que não quer deixar de ser criança. Já aqui escrevi sobre o espaço de Minkowski, as escolhas que fizemos no passado limitam as escolhas que podemos fazer no presente. Escolher mal hoje significa limitar o campo de possibilidades no futuro. Muitas vezes optamos por não escolher com medo da perda de potencial. E ser criança é isso, é um campo de possibilidades em aberto. Crescer significa começa a fazer escolhas. E para uma PME escolher é ter uma estratégia e, como dizia Porter, tão importante ou mais ainda é escolher o que não fazer, do que escolher o que fazer. Não escolher é ficar na Terra do Nunca. Não escolher é querer servir todos os clientes, é ficar stuck-in-the-middle.

Colapso do meio-termo e a polarização do mercado

O capítulo 4 - "The Collapse of the Middle" do livro “Remarkable Retail” de Steve Dennis foi uma revisão de temas que são tratados neste blogue quase desde o seu início.

"As we take a closer look, however, we start to see what I first explored in a 2011 blog post as the “death of the middle.” Then, a couple of years later, I began referring to this phenomenon as “retail’s great bifurcation” — a title later borrowed for an excellent Deloitte study, which I will discuss below."

Aqui no blogue a primeira vez que se escreveu sobre a morte do meio-termo - o stuck in the middle - e a polarização dos mercados foi em Abril e Maio de 2006 - Porque não podemos ser uma Arca de Noé! (II).

...
What we see, on the one hand, is that many retailers that are strongly focused on the value end of the spectrum—i.e., great prices, extensive merchandise assortments, and a highly convenient and efficient buying experience—are growing both sales and number of stores. At the other end of the spectrum, many brands that focus on offering unique products, more personalized service, and a more upscale and distinctive shopping experience are also gaining share and continuing to open more locations.
As the chart above illustrates, the problems in physical retail (and in troubled brands more broadly) are highly concentrated among those retailers trapped in what I call the boring, undifferentiated middle, or what Deloitte labels, somewhat charitably, “Balanced.”[Moi ici: O mesmo padrão por todo o lado, não é só no retalho físico, é em todos os sectores económicos ]
...
What Deloitte found was that high-income households have captured a disproportionate share of income growth in recent years. Indeed, the rich are getting richer, as the top 20 percent captured over 100 percent of income growth between 2007 and 2015.
...
For most Americans, however, the outcomes are quite different. They are downright depressing. For 80 percent of households, income growth has either declined or remained stagnant, while costs of non-discretionary expenses like healthcare, education, and other household essentials continue to increase, often markedly.
...
The implications for retail are significant. As both discretionary income and overall wealth have risen sharply for the affluent class, many are spending their gains on both products and services, often trading up to ever more expensive items. At the other end, for the other 80 percent who are getting squeezed harshly, total spending power has declined. As a result, their sensitivity to prices and stretching their dollars even further has greatly increased.
...
Department stores in particular have been swimming in a sea of sameness for decades. Now they are drowning.
The retailers that are struggling typically have both strategic and executional issues. From a business design standpoint they often sit in the middle of the price spectrum, offering neither great product value and convenience nor anything unique from a product, experience, or service standpoint. They sell fairly average “safe” products to the great masses of the population. A little bit of everything for everybody, nothing that special—or remarkable—for anybody. [Moi ici: A agonia de quem vende para o Normalistão quando o mundo está a ficar cheio de tribos. O nosso velho Estranhistão, ou Mongo]
...
These brands act like they are still in business. They think that some customers still really care whether they stay or they go.
I see dead brands. And they don’t even know they’re dead."[Moi ici: Recordo a metáfora do Rádio Clube Português ]

"the importance of saying “no”"

Dizer não, é difícil e, muitas vezes, nunca chega a ser enunciado. Afirmamos as escolhas do que decidimos fazer e não clarificamos as escolhas do que não queremos, ou não devemos fazer. Por vezes isso dá asneira grossa. Sobretudo quando se compete em mercados muito competitivos, mercados polarizados (um link de Maio de 2006) e cheios de salami-slicers, não de Bruce Jenners. Segue-se aquela sensação de não ser nem carne, nem peixe, um stuck-in-the-middle, um médio que não se diferencia, que não emociona ninguém, que não tem inimigos.

"Remember the days when Tim Cook would brag about how Apple’s product line could fit on a single table? It would be much harder to make that claim today.
...
When Jobs returned to Apple in 1997, he slashed the company’s product line to a few core products and preached the importance of saying “no” — not just to ideas you don’t like, but also to those you love if they don’t work within the larger vision. [Moi ici: Recordar "the next big thing"] He revitalized the company with a focused product line, which helped grow its cult following. [Moi ici: Recordar o recente "The paradox of focusing on a niche"] As Apple’s values change, this kind of focus is under threat.
...
Apple under Jobs wasn’t perfect. Jobs certainly wasn’t either. But it’s undeniable that Apple stood for something that redefined our expectations of personal computing and mobile devices. The company’s products looked great, and the options were streamlined, not confusing. Their prices were aspirational but, usually, attainable.
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Cook’s Apple has shifted from focusing on the products to focusing on the share price."

Trechos retirados de "Apple’s Product Line Is a Mess"

Não é nem roubo nem desigualdade

Recomendo uma reflexão baseada em dois textos de Niraj Dawar.

O primeiro texto é "The Critical Role Of Context In Building Brands" e parte do vídeo com alguns anos, que muitos terão visto, de um reputado violinista a tocar anonimamente no metro de Washington, quando dias antes tinha enchido o Symphony Hall de Boston com os bilhetes a $100. A mensagem de Dawar é: o contexto é tudo.

"But ultimately, where does context reside? In the mind of the customer. By creating context, marketers play with the customers’ mind. They shape it to create the most receptive setting for the brand and the product."

O meu ponto de vista é: não podemos servir todo o tipo de clientes e para alguns, ainda que o nosso produto ou serviço seja de topo, não seremos a melhor solução pois o resultado que procuram obter nas suas vidas pode ser conseguido com uma oferta alternativa, ou mais barata, ou mais fácil, ou mais luxuosa, ou mais amizade genuína, ou mais ...

O segundo texto é "Brands And The Consumer Hourglass Theory" e vai de encontro a muitos desabafos que faço quando vejo empresas a deixarem dinheiro em cima da mesa - Damn! It's not about the price!!!

"Citigroup calls it the Hourglass Theory. As income inequality increases, consumers are polarizing into two groups – the few looking for high-end, highly differentiated and high value-added products, and the many looking for value, and sometimes extreme value.
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The middle, which was the staple target market of consumer goods companies since at least the mid-twentieth century, has shrunk, and continues to shrink." [Moi ici: Isto faz-nos recuar a 2005 e à polarização dos mercados]

O ponto de Dawar, com o qual estou totalmente de acordo, é que isto, o desaparecimento do mercado do meio termo, não acontece por causa do aumento das desigualdades económicas. Quantas pessoas conhecem com um bruto carrão, e que não têm onde cair mortas com dívidas? Quantos estudantes não querem gastar um cêntimo em livros e propinas, mas não hesitam em ir à discoteca da moda derreter dinheiro? [Apesar desta linguagem não faço julgamentos de valor, cada um é livre de decidir onde e como gastar o seu dinheiro, a menos que depois eu tenha de contribuir para fazer o bail-out de uns quaisquer lesados-[colocar nome dos maus de turno]]

"But while the data on income inequality are incontrovertible, there is another explanation for the hourglass that marketers should not rule out: attention scarcity.
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What if the scarce commodity at the source of the hour glass is not so much consumer income or spending, but consumer interest and attention?
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Consider for a moment that consumers now make thousands of purchase decisions in hundreds of product categories every year. They can’t possibly be experts in all of these product categories, nor do they have an interest in optimizing their choice in each product category. They just want something that will do the job."

Acredito profundamente nisto que se segue:

"for most of the thousands of choices consumers make, they merely want a reasonable product – give me something that works at a price that makes sense. This is the very definition of value.
Some consumers are willing to spend the time to learn about product categories about which they are passionate, and are usually also willing to spend more money on the better products in those categories. For all other product categories, they couldn’t care less.
...
So the bifurcation of the market into what looks like an hourglass occurs, but due to attention disparity, not income disparity.
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If it is interest and consumer attention that are creating the hourglass"

Por isso, tento convencer os empresários que quando um concorrente conquista um cliente que entra num mercado pela primeira vez, o mais certo é que esse cliente ainda não esteja no patamar [de atenção] que os torna como a oferta mais adequada. O seu interesse e conhecimento vai ter de aumentar porque, por exemplo, querem subir na escala de valor, só nessa altura estarão maduros para uma outra oferta.

E no seu caso, como é?

Um mundo polarizado (parte VI)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV e parte V. 

"It’s six years later and a similar malaise poisons the broader retail industry. Everyone is talking about the need for disruption, innovation and change, yet most stop well short of actually doing anything about it. Many retail brands talk about game-changing innovation but what we see are lukewarm iterations of existing concepts and old ideas. Retailers, it seems, lack the will or sense of urgency to effect significant and radical change.
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Adding to the numbness is a continuous chorus of bloggers and retail pundits saying the “retail apocalypse” is overblown. They acknowledge that 8,642 retail stores will close in 2017 in North America alone, but somehow always work their way back to telling us the sky isn’t falling and we need not be overly concerned. Well, I’m here to tell you that the time for concern has passed. We’re well into “shit-yourself” territory.
...
E-commerce will soon drive the majority of sales.
You don’t need to multiply a small number by a big number too many times before the result is a huge number. Online retail is currently compounding globally at a rate somewhere between 12 and 35 percent, depending on where you do business. In the US, for example, even if nothing else changes, e-commerce will comprise 25 percent of total retail within 6 short years. In the UK that figure may exceed 30 percent. Perhaps most staggering of all is that within 3 years, three companies — Amazon, Alibaba and eBay — will control 40 percent of planet earth’s e-commerce. And this is just a warm-up. Within 15 years, e-commerce will overtake conventional retail sales in developed nations, as a new wave of pervasive technologies take hold."

Posso estar enganado, mas acredito fortemente no texto que se segue:

"Physical retail will no longer be a channel for buying
With the vast majority of our daily and weekly needs simply coming to us as necessary, the role and purpose of retail space will no longer be principally to sell products. Rather, these spaces will act as living, breathing physical portals into brand and product experiences. They will become places we go to learn, be inspired, see and try new things, experiment and co-create. Beyond mere consumption, we’ll go to these spaces for entertainment, education, connection and community. This is not to suggest that there will be no products for sale in these physical spaces, only that the emphasis will not be sales but rather on catalysing a relationship with the consumer that transcends the store. The way these spaces are planned, built, staffed, managed and measured will look and act nothing like the retail operations of today. My advice to retailers is to stop thinking “stores” and start thinking stories. Stop thinking “product” and start thinking productions."[Moi ici: Como não recordar as imagens do artigo] 

Trechos retirados de "To Save Retail, Let It Die"

Um mundo polarizado (parte V)

Parte I, parte II e parte III e parte IV.

Há dias foi a Toys 'R Us agora é a vez da Claire's, "Claire's is closing 92 stores as it files for bankruptcy — see if yours is on the list".

""This decline may be attributable to several factors, including competition from big-box retailers, large tenant closures (leaving malls without an 'anchor' tenant to drive foot traffic), and the increased popularity of online shopping," the company said."

Interessante esta justificação retirada de "We visited a Claire's store the day the teen retailer filed for bankruptcy" Recomendo a consulta do artigo e a observação das imagens... fizeram-me recordar o dia de Carnaval de 2005, 8 de Fevereiro. Nesse dia, ou no dia anterior, no telejornal "País, País" ao final da tarde passou uma reportagem sobre o encerramento das lojas tradicionais em Vila Real com a abertura de um centro comercial. Recordo um lojista a ser entrevistado na sua loja com as camisas de modelos arcaicos amontoadas no chão.

O que seria uma loja com o mesmo tipo de produtos, mas com menos tralha e com espaços de experimentação e teste?

Um mundo polarizado (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

"Deloitte undertook an extensive research process, devoting the better part of a year to examining the retail environment: studying official data; conducting a survey of over 2,000 participants; and drawing on the knowledge of our clients, industry contacts, and our own industry specialists. Our key finding: “Balanced” retailers (which deliver value through a combination of price and promotion) are generally doing worse than either price-based retailers (which deliver value by selling at the lowest possible prices) or premier retailers (which deliver value via premier or highly differentiated product and/or experience offerings). Specifically, premium retailers have seen their revenues soar 81 percent over the last five years, while price-based retailers have seen their revenues steadily increase 37 percent over the same period. This contrasts with balanced retailers, whose revenue has increased only 2 percent.1 What’s more, consumers are more likely to recommend premier or price-based retailers than balanced, suggesting that retailers at either end of the spectrum are more in tune with the changing needs and are better at meeting the expectations of consumers than those in the middle."

Trecho retirado de "The great retail bifurcation"

Um mundo polarizado (parte III)

Parte I e parte II. 

"The data suggests that midsized brewers are being squeezed out by their smaller and larger competitors. According to our analysis of Brewers Association data, the average number of barrels produced by midsized craft breweries fell by about 4 percent between 2012 and 2016 — a period in which microbreweries and larger craft breweries posted modest gains, at 1.8 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively."

Em todo o lado esta tendência de polarização.

Cuidado com o meio-termo, cuidado com o querer ser tudo para todos, cuidado com a ausência de uma estratégia.

Trecho retirado de "Can Craft Beer Continue to Tap into Growth?"

Mundo polarizado - cuidado com o meio-termo

Foi numa revista da McKinsey de 2005 que primeiro li sobre o fenómeno da polarização dos mercados, "Porque não podemos ser uma Arca de Noé! (II)".

Todos conhecem o sucesso da Amazon como livraria digital. Menos, conhecem o sucesso das pequenas livrarias independentes:

• Sonho de um optimista ingénuo (parte III) (Setembro 2010)
• Mongo também passa por isto, pela batota (Agosto 2013)
• independentes e Mongo (Dezembro 2013)
• Estes são os meus heróis! (Maio 2014)
• Interessante, nestes tempos de Amazon, Mongo cresce (Janeiro 2015)
• Isto é bonito... (Otubro 2015)
• Quando o mundo muda há quem dê a volta (Novembro 2017)
• Empreendedores literários (Dezembro 2017)

Se os extremos estão bem o que acontecem aos do mercado do meio-termo? Um exemplo, "Bookstore Chains, Long in Decline, Are Undergoing a Final Shakeout":

"“Sales in our mall stores are down this year from 30 to 60 percent,” said Bill Streur, Book World’s owner. “The internet is killing retail. Bookstores are just the first to go.”
...
“There’s no way to compete against Amazon, which doesn’t care if it makes a profit,” said Erik Sanstad, the manager of the Mequon store. Still, he added: “I’m a little reluctant to say the internet killed Book World. We never advertised, never got our name out there.”"

Este discurso faz-me recordar "Talvez focar primeiro o valor e só depois o preço"

O século XX continua por cá (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

Há anos que refiro aqui o beco sem saída a que as corporações gigantes estão a chegar ao depararem com Mongo e a explosão de tribos que traz. Por exemplo:

• E porque não somos plankton (parte VII)
• E porque não somos plankton (parte VI)

A P&G a encolher, a Mondelez a encolher, ...

Via Twitter o @hnascim chamou-me a atenção para "So Long, Hamburger Helper: America's Venerable Food Brands Are Struggling", mais um exemplo de Mongo não é um mundo gigantes-friendly (parte III):

"For over a century, brands such as Kellogg’s cereal, Campbell’s soup and Aunt Jemima pancake mix filled pantries of American households that wanted safe, affordable and convenient food. They provided companies with reliable revenue growth from grocery shelves, and there was little reason to mess with that formula.
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Today, these giants are struggling with competition that is corroding business from both ends. High-end consumers are shifting toward fresher items with fewer processed ingredients while cost-conscious shoppers are buying inexpensive store brands. [Moi ici: Polarização dos mercados] The makers of staples including Chef Boyardee canned pasta and Hamburger Helper meal kits failed to spot the threat and didn’t innovate in time.
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Anyone searching for macaroni and cheese, a childhood staple, can opt for fancy pasta with organic ingredients or inexpensive store brands such as Kroger Co.’s. Squeezed in the middle are Kraft Heinz Co.’s venerable blue-and-yellow boxes.
...
“A lot of what’s crept into big companies is internal focus, bureaucracy, PowerPoint presentations—the antithesis of agility,”
...
Many big brands didn’t move fast enough to remove artificial ingredients and haven’t been able to shed the negative perception of processed food, said several food executives and others close to the industry.
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At the same time, they faced low-cost store brands—or “private label” products—from retailers such as Costco Wholesale Corp., Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and regional grocers that sell copycat products. National brands, which have huge marketing costs, generally can’t afford to compete on price with the in-house brands of stores, which need little marketing beyond displaying products prominently on their own shelves.
...
Big food sellers still dominate in America. The 25 largest food and beverage companies commanded a 63% share of $495 billion in U.S. food and beverage sales in 2016, according to consultancy A.T. Kearney.
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That is down from 66% in 2012, and even seemingly small market-share losses hurt sales and profits. The top 25 companies averaged 2% annual sales growth from 2012 through 2016, compared with 6% for their smaller rivals, according to A.T. Kearney."

"the annihilation of the mid-market"

O Armando recomendou-me a leitura de "Interview: Jim Graham, former COO of The Gym Group, gives his thoughts on the industry" e não pude deixar de recordar os salami slicers e Bruce Jenner ao ler:

"The establishment of a scaled-up low-cost segment, as well as the after-shock of the 2008 recession, has forced people to think differently. Burning platforms and in-flows of new money always brings about change. Adapt or die, I guess.
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The major change has been the annihilation of the mid-market. It’s all but complete now, and that has to be a good thing since many of the assets were poor, the product tired and lacking relevance to the mass market it once owned.
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We’re also seeing material new investment in technology to deliver a digital component to the physical experience. In the long-run this is a good thing for the consumer, but the digital ecosystem is ostensibly chaotic and in the short-term there’s questionable value to the customer from a lot of the early offerings. There are some interesting new niche products in play, but I’m not sure many will scale effectively."

Como não recuar a 2006 e a "Porque não podemos ser uma Arca de Noé! (II)" ou a "Quando se acorda atolado num pântano de indefinição..." e a "The vanishing middle market".

Foram estes textos, conjugados com o livro de Berger e com os primeiros casos de sucesso que acompanhava, de quem procurava alternativas ao modelo que tinha tido tanto sucesso antes da chegada da China à OMC, que me orientaram para a visão optimista que alimento desde então.

Continua.

Alterar a oferta (parte VI)

Parte V, parte IV, parte III e parte II.

"Yet while the internet forever changed shopping, the physical retail environment lagged behind.
...
And over the next few years, the brick-and-mortar buying experience will change even more dramatically.
...
"We had been operating for this idea that bigger is better, the superstore or supercenter. Now we’re seeing a shift away from that, brands closing their stores, reconsidering their footprint,"
...
"At the highest level, you have more physical retail going into service,"
...
places like sporting goods stores, once offering the value proposition of a large inventory of tennis rackets, are now getting into ancillary services, like the restringing of said rackets. Retailers are using services to make their brick-and-mortar locations more valuable in the face of online shopping.
...
that cup of sugar you need from the store? That’s delivered. We go places for people, not things.[Moi ici: Uma ideia interessante]
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[Moi ici: Segue-se outra mensagem típica deste blogue] In a world based upon extremes, failure can often be found in the middle.[Moi ici: A polarização dos mercados e o pântano do meio-termo] Nobody likes lukewarm coffee. They want it steaming hot or poured over ice. Experts agree that retail is evolving the same way.
...
"On the one hand, we will increasingly use digital services (ideally mobile apps) to purchase down-to-earth products—such as toilet paper, laundry soap, milk. I could imagine a kind of Amazon unlimited scheme that will constantly replenish our supply of toilet paper," says designer and MIT professor Carlo Ratti. "On the other hand, I see a blossoming of experiential shopping. Think about choosing fresh food produce: We will always enjoy going to a physical store where we can touch, smell, etc. The store, in turn, can become increasingly focused on providing us with unique experiences.""

Trechos retirados de "The Way You Shop Will Change Forever This Year. Here's How"

The Mid-market (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"Does all this activity mean the mid-market is finally disappearing, or can operators in this segment of the market evolve to survive? We ask the experts... [Moi ici: Seguem-se trechos da resposta de Richard Millman]
...
They need a clear strategy and proposition for the consumer, differentiating on quality of product and service. They need to find their point of difference, both as a chain and as individual clubs. Going upmarket — as some mid-market operators are trying or have tried to do — presents a marketing challenge. It's easier to do if you have just one club than a chain, because to successfully make this move, operators must really understand their local marketplace — what their USP is locally — and how to capture new groups of customers. There are still lots of new audiences out there, provided clubs can define their proposition and find something unique to offer their particular geographic and consumer market."

Acerca da importância do alinhamento.


Trechos retirados do número de Outubro da revista "Health Club Management"

The Mid-market (parte II)

Parte I.

"Does all this activity mean the mid-market is finally disappearing, or can operators in this segment of the market evolve to survive? We ask the experts... [Moi ici: Segue-se a resposta de Michael Clark]
...
Unless it’s a premium or destination club, most consumers will categorise the remainder of gyms as much the same and, as consumer research continues to tell us, they will choose to the join the most convenient one for them. If they have a choice when it comes to convenience, with two or more clubs in similar striking distance, then price becomes more of a factor. This tilts the tables in favour of the budget operators.
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That said, big box mid-market clubs do have numerous offensive strategies available to them to counter the cost differential. One is to address the ongoing consumer frustration of having to pay for all the club’s services and facilities when they only use one or two areas. This can be achieved by breaking out popular formats – for example, some group exercise genres – into a boutique-style ‘club within a club’, with a separate pay as you go fee structure.
...
Going forward, I feel it will be all about how mid-market operators can articulate their differentiation and how they can attract new markets using technology and other services. A good location alone won’t be enough to stop consumers comparing on price and choosing what they see as a cheaper like-for-like option."

Trechos retirados do número de Outubro da revista "Health Club Management"

The Mid-market (parte I)

"Does all this activity mean the mid-market is finally disappearing, or can operators in this segment of the market evolve to survive? We ask the experts... [Moi ici: Segue-se a resposta de Ray Algar]
...
Mid-market clubs were very slow to respond when low-cost gyms entered the market and disrupted the status quo. Now, unless they can offer something more compelling, it will only be a matter of time before more of these generic health clubs start to close.
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In the last couple of years, we've seen a disproportionate number of mid-market independents close as membership stagnated, membership prices remained flat and insufficient funds were generated to reinvest into refreshing the experience.
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The low-cost and premium markets are both well defined, but historically the mid-market brands have deliberately been more generic. Neither one thing or the other.
...
The remaining legacy brands need to take stock and now jettison things which no longer serve them, or their members, and rediscover their core excellence. Similar offerings may be good enough when there's significant geographic distance between clubs, but can be disastrous as the distance between health clubs shortens.
...
Mid-market clubs need to become experts, and build a reputation, in an area they really care about."

Como não recuar a 2005 e ao primeiro artigo que li sobre o fim do middle-market com a polarização do mercado: The vanishing middle market,” The McKinsey Quarterly, 2005 Number 4.
 
Trechos retirados do número de Outubro da revista "Health Club Management"

"Listen very carefully, I shall say this only once." (parte V)

Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV.

Qual o ex-libris, o avatar do fornecedor low-cost?
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A Amazon!
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Como lidar com a Amazon?
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Oferecer um preço mais baixo?
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Come on!?!? Não vai mais vinho para essa mesa!



Trechos retirados de "Beyond Amazon: 5 Niche Ecommerce Sites Driving Innovation In Online Shopping":

"sites like Amazon try to provide a solution for nearly every product, and therefore can't offer up a custom or focused experience for very specific products or shoppers. Today, a number of niche sites are creating new kinds of shopping experiences that change the way people discover products.
...
This site is not only focused on a very specific audience, but a very personal and intimate product as well.
...
finding unique ways of selling a product in order to cater to niche markets
...
The company provides a wide variety of items — all of them themed for the company's specific audience. This is a classic example of finding a market, and building whatever product happens to appeal to them.
...
What all of these sites share is focus — and this allows these smaller services to compete with the do-it-all giants. This is a powerful lesson and can certainly be applied to other industries."

Em todo o lado esta evolução... entretanto, há os que acham que é tudo uma questão de estímulos, apoios e outras mezinhas.

"Listen very carefully, I shall say this only once." (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.
.
Recordar o velho exemplo de Manzano:

• "Autópsia de uma estratégia, feita à distância (parte II)" (Outubro de 2007) (parte I)
• "Macro economia vs micro economia?" (Março de 2008)
• "Subir na escala de valor" (Outubro de 2011)
• "O exemplo do mobiliário (parte III)" (Setembro de 2012)

Pequenas empresas habituadas a trabalhar no mercado B2B sem marca, produzem um produto de qualidade, sem defeitos, honesto mas sem identidade própria. Ocupam o mercado do meio-termo com um produto decente mas só isso, decente.

.

Entretanto, fruto da globalização, entram os concorrentes com produção muito mais barato made in Asia e qualidade nível de defeitos qb.

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Qual a alternativa?

Desvalorizar a moeda e continuar a competir pelo preço? Impossível, os malvados alemães não deixam e, os salários teriam que cair uma ordem de grandeza.

.

Qual a alternativa? 

Trading-up!!! 

Subir na escala de valor!

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Continua.

"Listen very carefully, I shall say this only once." (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

Agora, no mercado do fitness, o mesmo padrão, a fuga do mercado do meio-termo. A aposta no trading-down e trading-up.

HOW DO YOU FORESEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING MARKET SEGMENTS?

HOW DO YOU FORESEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MID-PRICED MARKET SEGMENT?

HOW DO YOU FORESEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE HIGH-END MARKET SEGMENT?

HOW DO YOU FORESEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-COST MARKET SEGMENT?

HOW DO YOU FORESEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NICHE / BOUTIQUE / STUDIO MARKET?

Sempre o mesmo padrão...

O encolhimento do mercado do meio-termo, o mercado de massas em favor dos dois extremos.

Continua.



Imagens retiradas de "Forecasting the Future of the Health Club Industry - IHRSA Industry Leader Research March 2015"

"Listen very carefully, I shall say this only once."

Ontem, ao final do dia li um relatório da IHRSA, sobre o fitness na Europa e nos EUA, em breve terei de escrever sobre ele.
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Hoje, li "Près de 10 % des élevages sont « au bord du dépôt de bilan », selon Stéphane Le Foll", outro texto que merece uma reflexão futura.
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E, enquanto inspeccionava o estado das amoras silvestres da zona onde caminho, a minha mente fez uma viagem ao passado, recuando quase 10 anos. Foi no último trimestre de 2005 que recebi esta revista:

O número 4 de 2005 da revista The McKinsey Quarterly.
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Nas primeiras páginas encontrei um curto artigo que, tal como o de Marn e Rosiello na HBR, mexeu com o meu mindset e ainda hoje o alimenta.

O artigo é este "The vanishing middle market" de Trond Riiber Knudsen, Andreas Randel, e Jørgen Rugholm (escrevi sobre ele no blogue em 2006).
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A ideia do artigo, escrito antes da Grande Recessão iniciada em 2007, a ideia da polarização dos mercados, ajuda a perceber, a interpretar os sinais sobre o futuro do fitness, ou as alternativas para sair da espiral compressora que persegue os produtores de carne e leite.
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O artigo incluía umas figuras que todos os empresários deviam conhecer:
"Executives recognize that premium and no-frills offerings are squeezing middle-of-the-road products and services in many industries. Our study of 25 industries and product categories in Europe, North America, and on the global level shows the extent of this phenomenon, known as market polarization. We found that, from 1999 to 2004, the growth rate of revenues for midtier products and services trailed the market average by nearly 6 percent a year.
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Que fatias do mercado cresciam?
Que fatia do mercado decrescia?
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Onde estão os Davids?
Onde estão os Golias?
Golias e David competem entre si, ou pertencem a campeonatos diferentes?
Que vantagens competitivas tem quem está no mercado do meio-termo?
Onde está o low-cost puro?
Onde estão os nichos e boutiques?
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Este exemplo retirado do mercado da refrigeração na Europa é bem elucidativo:

Que fatias crescem em unidades vendidas?
Que fatias crescem em vendas?
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O que é que o século XX sempre protagonizou? O que é que da mentalidade do século XX se impregnou como senso comum nas mentes dos empresários, académicos, políticos e paineleiros?
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Trabalhar, produzir, servir a norma, servir o mercado de massas:

O que está a acontecer ao mercado de massas no século XXI?
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Está a encolher e a transferir-se para o low-cost.
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Isto gera uma espiral de eficientismo desenfreado que premeia uns poucos e esmaga a maioria dos produtores, prisioneiros mentais do século XX e do mundo onde nasceram e cresceram.
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Qual o mercado que cresce?
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O dos nichos, o das boutiques, o da especialização:

Analisemos então, o casos dos produtores de carne e de leite.
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Continua.

Um exemplo de polarização dos mercados

Algures num livro no ano passado, encontrei uma citação que recordo muitas vezes e, que tenho pena de não ter registado, algo do género, um bom sinal de que se tem uma estratégia clara é: estar no mercado a ter sucesso a servir um dado grupo de clientes e, ver um suposto concorrente, a também ter sucesso mas a servir um outro grupo de clientes.

É possível ter sucesso a trabalhar para servir o grupo A, enquanto outro tem sucesso a trabalhar para servir o grupo B.
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Em "Motorola boss counters criticism from Apple's Jony Ive", ambos estão certos e ambos estão errados. Cada um analisa a situação do outro segundo a sua filosofia de negócio.