Mongo na saúde

“Over the past four or five decades carbohydrate-heavy diets—pushed by mass-market production and mass marketing of cereals and drinks laced with high-fructose corn syrup—created an epidemic of obesity and, ultimately, diabetes. The medical profession lumped most people with diabetes into one of two categories of the disease—type 1 is genetic and type 2 is diet related—and prescribed a standard treatment. It was a classic mass-market medicine approach. So the healthcare industry scaled up to meet demand. It built diabetes centers and more hospitals and ran every patient, assembly-line style, through the same tests the few times a year they’d be able to visit an endocrinologist, whose schedule was packed. Yet for patients, sugar levels in between appointments can change, rising and falling to dangerous levels, and the disease can progress, adding more costs and more visits to bigger hospitals. People suffering from diabetes end up costing the healthcare system $300 billion a year in the United States alone. (It’s only going to get worse globally: within a decade China will likely have more people with diabetes than the entire US population.) “The scaled approach can’t keep up with the growing number of people with the condition, and it fails to give people with diabetes what they really want: a healthy life.
.
In reality every person who has diabetes suffers from it differently, and the best way to treat it is different for everybody.
...
“Personalized AI-driven care can reduce the amount Americans spend caring for diabetes by as much as $100 billion just by keeping more people with diabetes well more of the time. Unscaled solutions can change the game and reduce healthcare costs by keeping people well. The nation can save money while at the same time making citizens healthier, happier, and more productive.”

Por cá, fala-se muito de Indústria 4.0, mas continuam a construir hospitais-monumento ou hospitais-cidade. Recordar os hospitais-cidade, as escolas-cidade e as máquinas-monumento.

Trecho retirado de "Unscaled: How A.I. and a New Generation of Upstarts are Creating the Economy of the Future"

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte XIII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X, parte XI e parte XII.

"The problem with GE, it appears, is that it has become a square-peg business in a round-hole world. It’s not that it’s gotten lazy, but that it invested heavily in getting better and better at things people care less and less about. That’s a problem we rarely talk about. We like to believe that success breeds more success, but the truth is that success often breeds failure.
...
From a certain point of view, GE did everything right. It continually improved its operations, brought in outside experts to shake things up and transformed its product development process. It also made strategically sensible acquisitions in an industry it knew well. But the whole time it was getting better and better at things customers wanted less and less. That’s how you get disrupted.
...
It’s a fairly simple equation. If you don’t explore, you won’t discover. If you don’t discover you won’t invent. And if you don’t invent, you will be disrupted."

Pensar na GE é pensar na Procter & Gamble e numa série de gigantes. De que serve a escala quando as pessoas não querem ser tratadas como plankton?

Trechos retirados de "How GE Got Disrupted"

Não basta inovar (parte II)

Parte I.

Recordar também "O Diógenes dentro de mim" (Maio de 2014). Não é uma questão que só aconteça às PME. Sempre que falha o alinhamento

temos desperdício:

"A new product line had failed, and the company believed the problem was either poor product delivery times or lack of effort by the sales force. After throwing millions at both problems, they finally realized what the real issue was: misaligned goals between marketing and sales. The product line was priced to grow market share, yet the sales force compensation was structured to incentivize salespeople based on profit margin maximization. As a result, the frustrated sales force focused efforts on selling other products in which the goals were more aligned.
.
This company isn’t alone. Marketing and sales departments often set their strategies, and goals, separately from each other."

Trecho retirado de "When Sales and Marketing Aren’t Aligned, Both Suffer"

Douro

Teóricos vs práticos

Pois ...

Imaginem ...

Ao fim de vários meses lá consegui que empresa de informática que representa marca de ERP finalmente acedesse a dar formação à empresa A, sua cliente, paga com dinheiro de um subsídio.

Dias depois da primeira sessão visitei a empresa A e estavam entusiasmados com o que tinham aprendido. Tinham o ERP há anos e só aproveitavam uma pequena parcela. Logo por causa da primeira sessão resolveram avançar para a compra de mais um módulo do referido ERP.

Aposto que a empresa de informática não vai fazer a relação entre os dois acontecimentos:

• cliente ganha know-how sobre o ERP, cliente valoriza o ERP, cliente percebe o valor que pode experimentar com um novo módulo do ERP, cliente encomenda novo módulo do ERP;
• empresa de informática ganha encomenda, empresa de informática ganha publicidade positiva com os comentários da empresa A.

Imaginem que a empresa de informática era capaz de somar 2 mais 2 e começava a oferecer aos seus clientes mais sessões deste tipo ...

Para reflexão

"Experiences, which offers users activities hosted by locals — like a photography workshop or a cooking class — is now doing a million and a half bookings on an annualized basis. It’s growing much faster than Homes did, according to Chesky, who shared the data point that three in four millennials said they’d rather buy an Experience than a physical good."

Imaginem quando os hospedeiros por cá começarem a oferecer mais do que o espaço e se concentrarem no pacote completo.

Trecho retirado de "The experience economy will be a ‘massive business,’ according to Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky"

Arte, sempre a arte (parte II)

Parte I.

"The corporate system is transforming into a maze of fragmented tasks and short-term gigs. Although the modern era is often described as a skills economy, most companies have a short-term focus, which means for a worker that when her experience accumulates, it often loses institutional value.
...
The still prevalent system of the industrial world is based on mass-production and economies of scale. The more identical things are, the cheaper each copy can be. Computer-based digital manufacturing does not work this way. It does not use moulds or casts. Without these, there is no need to repeat the same form. Every piece can be unique, a work of art. As Mario Carpo puts it: “Repetition no longer saves money and variations no longer cost more money.” This means that the marginal cost of production is always the same. Big was better in the industrial world, but not any more. A small workshop can compete with the largest factory. Production is not affected by size. What is emerging leads to a flat marginal cost society, an economy without scale, a human-sized economy.
.
The biggest challenge for a worker in this new environment is to think like an artist, at the same time making good use of new technology. The artist becomes the symbol of humanness building on the increasing financial value of personalization and variation.[Moi ici: Lá está a confusão! Não é variação é variedade!!! (aqui também)] It is not a zero sum game between faulty men and flawless machines. The machines propose and create potentials rather than take over.
.
The societal changes are huge. The modern machine changes the way we understand skills and learning. A skill has always been, and will always be, trained practice. Modern machine learning (AI) algorithms can learn from experience very, very fast because the code develops through data feedback. The danger here is that people may let the machines do the learning without participating in it. People may choose to serve as passive bystanders and consumers of artificial intelligence and its expanding capability. This is why learning needs to change: it is not first going through education and then finding corresponding work, but working first and then finding supporting, corresponding learning. Modern technology is abused if it deprives its users of hands-on training."[Moi ici: Este último trecho é fundamental!!! Porque não começamos a fazer arte quando nos tornamos artistas]

Trechos retirados de "Work of Art"

Profecias que se auto-realizam

Da próxima vez que ouvirem o discurso do coitadinho, do temos que ser apoiados, do "é preciso barrar a entrada de novos actores no jogo económico" (esta ouvi esta semana como uma das reivindicações dos camionistas) pensem nisto:

"The Pygmalion effect is a psychological phenomenon wherein high expectations lead to improved performance in a given area.
...
The flipside is the Golem effect, wherein low expectations lead to decreased performance. Both effects come under the category of self-fulfilling prophecies. Whether the expectation comes from us or others, the effect manifests in the same way."

Recordar:

• Isto é mesmo um desafio digno de Hercules (Dezembro de 2007)
• Qual deve ser o papel de uma associação patronal? (Dezembro de 2012)
• "Não veja televisão. Não veja as notícias! São um veneno!" (Maio de 2013) 
• Condenados pelos limites que nós próprios criamos para nós mesmos  (Maio de 2013) 

Trechos retirados de "The Pygmalion Effect: Proving Them Right"

Sintomas de um mundo em mudança

• Digitalização 3D simplifica a compra e a produção em massa de calçados personalizados
• How a Few Brands Are Making Made-to-Measure Fashion Accessible
• Shoemakers bring bespoke footwear to the high street

Falta-lhe autenticidade

E 11 anos depois de "Agora vou especular" temos "Super Bock faz ‘spin off’ para produzir cervejas em pequena escala".

Hoje, arrisco dizer que sem torrefacção de dinheiro dos contribuintes não terá grande futuro. Falta-lhe autenticidade, falta-lhe a paixão assimétrica das tribos.

"Tivemos necessidade de fazer uma mudança..."

Um texto que parece tirado deste blogue:

"O Grupo Têxtil António Falcão, fundado em 1957, estreou-se na Première Vision Yarns em fevereiro último, onde mostrou as suas mais recentes valências, com artigos de valor acrescentado – como fios com lurex e fios estampados, de poliéster ou poliamida – em grande destaque.
...
Como foi a primeira vez, fomos apalpar terreno e estamos satisfeitos. Fomos com um stand pequeno e decidimos levar apenas algumas novidades. Não levámos os fios básicos, levámos os fios que nos pareceram mais indicados para esta feira.
...
Há alguns anos, mudámos muito a nossa estratégia. Hoje praticamente só trabalhamos fios técnicos, de valor acrescentado.
...
A empresa estava a definhar por insistir em tipos de produtos altamente concorrenciais, que não eram inovadores, não traziam valor acrescentado nenhum – não estou a falar de valor acrescentado económico mas valor acrescentado ao mercado. Portanto, era cada vez mais difícil estar no mercado e competir. Tivemos necessidade de fazer uma mudança, quer com tecnologia que nos pudesse diferenciar, quer também motivar as pessoas para, com estes equipamentos, elaborar coisas novas e fazer um trabalho junto dos nossos próprios clientes no sentido de serem nossos parceiros, desafiando-nos a fazer coisas diferentes – estarmos mais próximos dos clientes de forma a podermos ser mais inovadores e estarmos à frente dos nossos concorrentes.
...
a nossa presença nas feiras é para apresentarmos tudo aquilo que vamos desenvolvendo, porque hoje a nossa política em termos industriais realmente mudou, fazemos produtos muito inovadores. Hoje temos pessoas dentro da empresa que estão todos os dias à procura de fazer novos desenvolvimentos e, portanto, a inovar, para levarmos aos nossos clientes, primeiro àqueles que estão mais próximos e que estão cá e depois também àqueles que estão lá fora."

Trechos retirados de "«Hoje praticamente só trabalhamos fios técnicos, de valor acrescentado»"

Unscaled

"Throughout the twentieth century, technology and economics drove a dominant logic: bigger was almost always better. Around the world the goal was to build bigger corporations, bigger hospitals, bigger governments, bigger schools and banks and farms and electric grids and media conglomerates.[Moi ici: Recordar os hospitais-cidade, as escolas-cidade e as máquinas-monumento] It was smart to scale up—to take advantage of classic economies of scale. At the twenty-first century, technology and economies are driving the opposite—an unscaling of business and society. This is far more profound than just startups disrupting established firms. The dynamic is in the process of unraveling all the previous century's scale into hyperfocused markets. Artificial intelligence (Al) and a wave of Al-propelled technologies are allowing innovators to effectively compete against economies of scale with what I call the economies of unscale. This huge shift is remaking massive, deeply rooted industries such as energy, transportation, and healthcare, opening up fantastic possibilities for entrepreneurs, imaginative companies, and resourceful individuals..
If you feel that work, life, and politics are in disarray, this transformation is why. We are experiencing change unlike any since around 1900, when, as I will detail later, a wave of new technologies, including the car, electricity, and telecommunication, transformed work and life. Right now we are living through a similar ground-shaking, tech wave, as AI, genomics, robotics, and 3D printing charge into our lives. Artificial intelligence is the primary driver, changing almost everything, much like electricity did more than one hundred years ago. We are witnessing the birth of the AI century. A an economy driven by AI and digital technology, small, focused, and nimble companies can leverage technology platforms to effectively compete against big, mass-market entities. The small can do this became they can rent scale that companies used to need to build. The small can rent computing in the cloud, rent access to consumers on social media, rent production from contract manufacturers all over the world—and they can use artificial intelligence to automate many tasks that used to require expensive investment in equipment and people.
.
Because AI is software that learns, it can learn about individual customers, allowing companies built on rentable tech platforms to easily and profitably make products that address very narrow, passionate markets—even markets of one. The old mass markets are giving way to micromarkets. This is the essence of unscaling: technology is devaluing mass production and mass marketing and empowering customized microproduction and finely targeted marketing. The old strategy of beating competitors by owning scale has in many cases become a liability and burden. Procter & Gamble, with all its magnificent resources, finds itself vulnerable to a newcomer like the Dollar Shave Club, which can rent much of its capabilities, get to market quickly, target a narrow market segment, and change course easily if necessary."

Been there, wrote that, bought the T-shirt!

Trecho retirado de "Unscaled: How A.I. and a New Generation of Upstarts are Creating the Economy of the Future"

Cuidado com o que propõe às PME

Recordar o que escrevo há anos e anos sobre a diferença entre as PME da micro-economia e as empresas grandes:

•  Cuidado com o título
• Um conselho, um desafio

Entretanto, em "Product Innovation Processes in Small Firms: Combining Entrepreneurial Effectuation and Managerial Causation" encontro:

"Prior research poses a puzzle about small firms’ innovation processes. On the one hand, an extensive body of research on new product development (NPD) has identified benefits of a formalized process, with well-planned activities and decision points: a formal product innovation process is considered part of NPD best practice. On the other hand, case study evidence suggests that small firms seldom use such formalized process structures.
...
most product innovation management research has focused solely on large firms, or has failed to distinguish between large and small firms
...
this study shows that the effectual approach suits small firm characteristics, even though it differs from mainstream best practices that are based largely on research in larger firms. This suggests that product innovation research should explicitly differentiate on firm size, rather than prescribing large firm best practices to small firms.
...
Small firms are not miniature versions of large firms, and their characteristics constitute particular strengths and limitations for product innovation. A key strength of small firms is flexibility: they usually lack bureaucracy, are often managed by an owner/director who is able to take key decisions quickly, enjoy efficient and informal internal communication patterns, and develop strong relationships with customers. These characteristics enable rapid responses to technical and market changes, often resulting in differentiated products for niche markets.
.
On the downside, small firms have limited resources for product innovation projects. Lack of financial resources to cover the costs of innovation was identified as a key barrier in several studies. These constraints exacerbate the risks of innovation for small firms, which cannot sustain many failures. Besides limited financial and other material resources, small firms may lack the skills portfolios of their large company counterparts, especially the organizational and marketing capabilities to exploit new products. Further, a small firm’s position in its industry may constrain prospects to create and exploit innovations because of lack of name recognition, brand credibility, and track record; restricted influence on industry standards; limited network relations with other business and governmental organizations; and inability to defend trademarks or other proprietary resources.
.
Furthermore, small firms typically pursue few innovation projects at any one time—maybe just one, or even none at times. Consequently, their experience in product innovation is often limited. With no need to manage a portfolio of innovation projects at the same time and thus no pressure to select among projects to allocate resources, small firms have neither opportunity nor incentive to routinize innovation or formalize NPD stage-gates or selection procedures, as big firms do.
...
For example, early market screening and market research, identified as key activities in structured large firm NPD processes, are consistently lacking or poorly executed in small firms.
.
These empirical findings undermine the assumption that NPD in small firms should mimic larger firm NPD and adopt large firms’ best practices."

Ah! Ainda e sempre a Sildávia.

Junho de 2008.

Democratização da produção (parte II)

Parte I.

"Imagine a manufacturing world of distributed small-batch manufacturing. This is, of course, only one possible outcome, but we suggest it to provide a more concrete picture of how a new technology paradigm could transform manufacturing. At first glance this may appear as a back-to-the future utopia of artisanal producers that is impossibly distant from today’s large-scale, centralized, and globally organized production. But in fact, in a number of economic sectors, we are already seeing a major process of fragmentation at work that involves many of the same mechanisms and technologies that we can conceive as having the potential of transforming manufacturing.
...
What would it take to drive into manufacturing these new economy-wide trends we observe that are reducing scale, shortening the path between the producers of the goods and services and their consumers, and customizing output? In a world of fragmented production, when a company needs a part, it does not build a factory. Rather, it taps into a national network portal and places a computer-aided design (CAD) description of the part it desires, and the numbers it needs, on the portal. To protect its intellectual property, it may perhaps modify the part somewhat. Meanwhile, software systems from small manufacturers around the country prowl the portal looking for parts to bid on. Each manufacturer has a rating, not unlike the system used by eBay, and provides a capacity and response time. Small manufacturers can produce only small numbers of parts, so many small companies might be necessary to meet the customer’s total needs. Software in the portal, perhaps with manual selection from the customer company, selects the ensemble of companies that will manufacture the run. Perhaps representatives from the customer companies also talk to the prospective small manufacturers to ensure that there is a fit.
...
Capacity would be flexible. Small businesses would compete by innovating and anticipating better. Like the Internet, this would be a resilient and adaptive system."

Trechos retirados de "Making in America From innovation to Market" de Suzanne Berger.

Ainda o Evangelho do Valor!

Recordar "Pregarás o Evangelho do Valor" e "Pregarás o Evangelho do Valor - sempre". Depois:

"When QPM decided to raise pricing by 8 percent across the board, they didn't just increase profit by 8 percent, but rather by over 20 percent. How is this possible? Just like Amazon, the lion's share of the price increase dropped to QPM's operating profit margin.
...
If your sales team relies on discounts fifty percent of the time in order to close a sale, and the average discount is 5 percent, then ending this practice is the financial equivalent of a 2.5 percent price increase. If your business operates at a 30 percent operating profit margin, this 2.5 percent price increase means an immediate lift to your bottom line profit of 8.3 percent."

Trechos retirados de "Amazon Just Did Something Brilliant to Increase Its Profits (And Why You Should Copy It)"

Acerca da moral

Em 2010 escrevi em, "Cooperação, moral, religião e a tentação...", sobre o que entendia estar na base da moral nas sociedades humanas. Em 2012 voltei ao tema em "A moral de um pensador".

Foi disto que me lembrei ao ler "Rude Drivers Who Merge at the Last Second Are Doing You a Favor, According to Science". Se um rude driver pode fazê-lo, dois rude drivers podem fazê-lo, três rude drivers podem fazê-lo. Se um rude driver pode fazê-lo, então todos podem fazê-lo.

Aquando da I Guerra do Golfo aprendi que para desbaratar um exército, ou parar um supermercado, basta afectar 30% para a coisa ficar ingovernável.

Há demasiados amadores a jogar bilhar. Como aprendi com Taleb:

"in academia there is no difference between academia and the real world, in the real world, there is"

Por isso, acredito que existe diferença entre ovos de umas galinhas e de outras.

Selecção e subsídios

Com Maliranta em 2007 aprendi aquela frase com que se inicia a coluna das citações:

"It is widely believed that restructuring has boosted productivity by displacing low-skilled workers and creating jobs for the high skilled."
Mas, e como isto é profundo:
"In essence, creative destruction means that low productivity plants are displaced by high productivity plants." Por favor voltar a trás e reler esta última afirmação.
E o grande finale:
"As creative destruction is shown to be an important element of economic growth, there is definitely a case for public policy to support this process, or at least avoid disturbing it without good reason. Competition in product markets is important. Subsidies, on the other hand, may insulate low productivity plants and firms from healthy market selection, and curb incentives for improving their productivity performance. Business failures, plant shutdowns and layoffs are the unavoidable byproducts of economic development."

Com Taleb em 2018 voltei ao tema:

"Systems don’t learn because people learn individually –that’s the myth of modernity. Systems learn at the collective level by the mechanism of selection: by eliminating those elements that reduce the fitness of the whole, provided these have skin in the game." 

E agora volto a encontrar mais tijolos para a estrutura em "Why Leaders Get Stuck at Average":

"We don’t automatically improve as time passes.  The longer we do something the more likely we are to do it like we’ve always done it.
...
Leading doesn’t make you a better leader. Just like playing golf doesn’t make you a better golfer.
.
The only way to improve performance – in any field – is purposeful practice. (Researchers and authors often use the expression ‘deliberate practice’.)"

E em "A basic theory of inheritance: How bad practice prevails":

"All organizations have “best practices”: habits that they have picked up in the past or mimicked from others. Managers often believe that these must be the best ways of doing things, because otherwise market forces would have eliminated them. The theory in the paper explains why this belief may be wrong. Some enduring practices may be harmful without managers realizing it because it is not necessarily the most optimal practices that survive (just like harmful viruses persist in nature)."

You make the magic!

Recordar "you need to enter their personal story" e "Mambo jambo de consultor ou faz algum sentido?".

A ver a penúltima etapa do Giro de Itália vejo um anúncio da marca de bicicletas Canyon, reparem nesta mensagem:

"We make the bike
...
You make the magic!!!"

Os doutorados emigrados

A propósito de "PME nunca vão criar emprego para doutorados", "Reitores: Lugar dos doutorados é nas empresas, não nas universidades" (BTW, estes dois textos fizeram-me lembrar aquele caso desta semana nos Estados Unidos em que os pais puseram o filho de 30 anos em tribunal para o expulsar de casa) e "Portugal continua a ter doutorados a menos e em situação precária", deixem-me contar-lhes uma estória verdadeira.

Investigador em laboratório universitário resolve testar o mercado e ir a entrevista de emprego em empresa privada. A empresa oferece-lhe 1800 euros por mês brutos. Acham que é um mau salário para alguém com menos de 28 anos e sem experiência fora da universidade?

O investigador pergunta quanto é que isso lhe permitirá ganhar líquido. Fazem umas contas de merceeiro na hora e dizem-lhe que isso equivale a cerca de 1200 euros líquidos por mês.

O investigador sorri e declina a proposta. Actualmente tem uma bolsa de investigação, julgo que de 1280 euros. Bolsa pelos vistos não é considerado salário, é considerado apoio ou subsídio. Por isso, tudo o que recebe é limpo de impostos.

Escusado será dizer que este investigador daqui a uns anos será mais um daqueles que andará pelas ruas a protestar porque não tem Segurança Social e tem precariedade laboral.

Qual é o salário médio do país? Quantas PME poderiam investir 1800 euros num investigador? Assim, para os doutorado, trabalhar para o Estado, ficar ad eternum com uma sequência de bolsas de investigação é quase o mesmo que emigrar para outro país onde se ganha mais, ou se pagam menos impostos.

O que medir?

"Replacing an accounting mindset with a decision-oriented mindset is a great starting point for defining relevant measures. [Moi ici: Recordar "Medimos, para que a informação obtida nos ajude a tomar decisões, ou a tomar melhores decisões."]"

Trecho retirado de "Are we measuring what matters?"

Para reflexão

Mão amiga mandou-me este texto, "Galinhas felizes e tabaco americano", num e-mail com um comentário venenoso a acompanhar.

E recordei esta figura:

E deste texto:

"Algum humano se recusa a comer mirtilhos?
.
Algum humano duvida que comer mirtilhos faz bem à saúde?
.
OK, agora, experimentem fazer um cocktail de sumo de mirtilho, comprando os químicos identificados lá em cima na fotografia e, depois, misturando-os nas proporções semelhantes às do fruto...
.
Quantos humanos se recusariam a beber esse "sumo"?"

Quando estudava na FEUP tinha um livro fotocopiado para a disciplina de IEQ (Introdução à Engenharia Química) com uma receita para a composição de sumo de laranja da Flórida. Nessa receita encontrava-se álcool metílico, uma substância cancerígena e que provoca a cegueira.

E volto ao texto:

"Um conselho prévio, procurem na internet os efeitos daqueles compostos aromáticos listados, por exemplo...
"The beauty of a living thing is not the atoms that go into it, but the way those atoms are put together"
O pensamento analítico julga que basta analisar os componentes isolados e, depois, juntá-los para perceber o que é o sistema... só que um sistema é mais do que a soma dos seus componentes."

Esta semana tive a felicidade de comer ervilhas que tive de descascar... venham-me dizer que é o mesmo sabor que comer ervilhas congeladas.

Cooperativa - a unidade económica do futuro?

Ontem, enquanto viajava de carro, já não sei qual a motivação, recordei os temas da série "O que passa-se?" e o que tenho escrito aqui ao longo dos anos acerca da cooperativa como uma unidade de trabalho com muito potencial em Mongo.

Depois, à noite encontrei "Des cafés associatifs pour réanimer les cœurs des villages". Acredito que veremos cada vez mais organizações deste tipo.

A evolução das marcas

"Now that change has become the new normal, brands have to evolve from the power of symbolism and the power of narration to the power of reciprocity. As brands morph from symbols and stories to systems, they need to find new ways to be relevant, useful, and entertaining. They need to create hospitable ecosystems and build upon ideas that welcome and nurture consumer relationships now and in the future."

Trecho retirado de "The Ways Customers Use Products Have Changed — but Brands Haven’t Kept Up"

Democratização da produção (parte I)

"Through the first century of mass production, companies emphasized maximizing throughput by making a relatively small assortment of standard products. Since the late 1980s, however, mass markets have fragmented, and firms increasingly turn out a greater variety of products that respond to specific customer demands in different market segments. This responsiveness to demand has led manufacturing plants to reverse a tradi- tional linear organization oriented to pushing out product and scheduling output on the basis of sales forecasts and, instead, to organize assembly in response to real-time orders—“pull.” This requires sophisticated integration of production planning and scheduling of plant operations and supply chain management.
.
But even with these changes of the past decades, manufacturing today still closely resembles its mass production ancestors. We now stand on the edge of radical changes in this system, as a set of new technologies emerging in laboratories and research centers across the United States promises to completely transform the traditional linear manufacturing organization. First, our ability to synthesize new materials has now advanced to a point where human design of these materials will become as critical a step as fabrication and assembly.
...
Second, the boundary between fabrication and assembly has blurred with the introduction of ultraefficient processes, automation, and even continuous manufacturing in batch sizes of “one.” Third, the product is often not just a physical artifact or widget but an integrated solution that involves bundling of physical products with services and software. Finally, there is a trend toward the systematic return of recycled materials to fabrication or even material synthesis."

Trechos retirados de "Making in America From innovation to Market" de Suzanne Berger

Acerca do contexto

Olhar para este mapa:

É difícil perceber o racional por trás do título... adiante.

 Lembra-se do fragilismo?

"Que países considera serem os mais arriscados?
.
Com base nas métricas que monitorizamos, neste momento estamos particularmente preocupados com economias com elevada dependência de financiamento externo. Esta é uma das razões para o severamente mau desempenho da Turquia, particularmente no lado da moeda." (fonte)

Relacionar com "Défice comercial duplica no primeiro trimestre de 2018" e com as mudanças no perfil das exportações e no perfil do emprego.

A invasão das sapatilhas

Hoje em dia é muito comum ouvir empresários do calçado queixarem-se da invasão das sapatilhas e de como elas estão a dar cabo do seu negócio.

Há dias ouvia alguém do retalho dizer que, para rapazes, só conseguia vender sapatilhas, a menos que estivesse por perto a altura das comunhões ou o Natal.

Pois parece que a coisa vai continuar por mais algum tempo e até reforçar-se, "Sneaker sales are growing as sales of high heels tumble":

"As American fashion has slowly become more casual, so has footwear. That trend has become especially apparent in women's sneaker sales, which have surged 37 percent throughout the U.S. in 2017. Meanwhile, sales of high heels have declined 11 percent during the same time period, according to the NPD Group's Retail Tracking Service.
...
"It's becoming kind of a basic consumer need to have comfort and the desire to be comfort because everybody's so busy and running around all the time," Beth Goldstein, NPD's executive director and industry analyst for fashion footwear and accessories, told CNBC.
.
"Brands that are focusing on comfort are doing better, because that something that women of all ages want," she said. The sneaker trend will likely continue in the double digits for the next few years, Goldstein added, as it becomes more of a lifestyle choice."

Não me admiro!

Quando existiam dinossauros no planeta Terra eu associava a marca Marks & Spencer a tudo menos low-cost. Trabalhava num fornecedor português da marca e associava-a a exigência na qualidade.

Hoje, os fornecedores portugueses da marca queixam-se da exigência paranóica no preço (custo).

Tendo em conta esta evolução:

E a importância do alinhamento entre estratégia, posicionamento da marca e operações, não me admiro com esta evolução "Marks & Spencer confirms expanded store closure programme".

Estratégia a sério implica sacrifício, implica trade-off, não é compatível com ser rico e ter saúde em simultâneo:

"there are no real surprises in Mr Rowe’s new strategy, which includes focusing on the quality and fit of clothing, “sharper” ranges, lower prices but less promotional activity." (fonte)

Estratégias possíveis

Um artigo longo, mas muito interessante, "Your Change Needs a Strategy".

5 tipos de estratégias possíveis em função da situação da organização:

• ‘Planned itinerary’
• ‘River crossing’ ("in certain contexts, we are unable to gain clarity on the means of change. In this case the appropriate change strategy is one we call ‘river crossing’. The end state is clear, but we need an exploratory approach to the path, taking one step at a time while keeping an eye on our destination.")
• ‘Hill climbing’
• 'Scouting and wandering’("There a strategy for change, odd as it may seem, which is organized around neither a clear end state nor clear means. This change is not driven by any immediate moves which seem obviously good, nor by any target state, but by curiosity, of a kind that will be useful in the long run.")
• ‘Escape the swamp’ ("Like ‘search and wandering’, this is not driven by a particular means, and the only clear aspect of the target state is that it must incorporate substantial and urgent change. We can call this ‘escape the swamp’. It applies in pressured situations such as the early stages of a turnaround, where there is limited time or resources to identify specific ends or means, but we are nevertheless driven to change.")

Interessante as possibilidades: ‘River crossing’, 'Scouting and wandering’ e ‘Escape the swamp’.

"imposto revolucionário"

Este texto "Now on Offer at the Supermarket: Freshly Squeezed Suppliers" fez-me pensar num e-mail   que me re-encaminharam recentemente.

Trabalhar para clientes grandes é estar sujeito a "imposto revolucionário".

"O que passa-se?" (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

Começa a ser interessante este aumento na frequência de artigos sobre a produção em Mongo e como se afastam do mainstream. Mais um, "Only Digital Manufacturing Can Create The Smart, Customized, On-Demand Products Consumers Want":

"Ask someone to describe manufacturing today, and they’ll probably describe giant machines operating in tandem along an assembly line putting together a product in vast quantities.
.
But as someone who works in manufacturing today, I can tell you that mass production – which has dominated how we’ve made things since the Industrial Revolution – is no longer the predominant manufacturing model.
.
Consumers today want products that are smarter, more customized and available on demand. The only way companies can satisfy this need is by creating a new business model that applies digital manufacturing strategies. Digital manufacturing – which combines software with physical manufacturing – can help manufacturers iterate faster, customize more, reduce lead times and respond more quickly to market changes."

Qual a direção de Mongo?

"Shorter Product Life Cycles: We may not always need the latest and greatest technologies, but we want them.
...
Greater Customization: Creating customized products is neither efficient nor cost effective with current mass production strategies.
...
Consumers want products that are smarter, more customized and available on demand. But consumer product, manufacturing companies and supply chain partners simply can’t meet this demand using the same business model we’ve used for decades. Instead, we need to understand and apply digital manufacturing strategies and embrace new tools that streamline operations."

Melhorar

De "Google Has an Official Process in Place for Learning From Failure--and It's Absolutely Brilliant":

"1. Identify the most important problems.
.
"A postmortem is the process our team undertakes to reflect on the learnings from our most significant undesirable events,"
...
2. Create a record.
.
"Our next step is to work together to create a written record for what happened, why, its impact, how the issue was mitigated or resolved, and what we'll do to prevent the incident from recurring,"
...
3. Promote growth. Not blame.
.
"Removing blame from a postmortem can enable team members to feel greater psychological safety to escalate issues without fear,"
...
The key is to encourage your people not to play "the blame game." Rather, you want them to focus on improvement and learning.
...
Remember, everyone makes mistakes. The question is, not "what if," but instead, what did we learn?"

E de "Toyota’s Secret: The A3 Report":

Aceleração

"Being on trend no longer guarantees sales and profitability in the fashion sector. In minutes, consumers can spot, own, and share a trend on social media, from any corner of the globe. As a result, hits can sell out rapidly, while misses do not move, even with heavy discounting.
.
The traditional product-development model is too slow. How do fashion brands outpace competitors? When we looked at differences between top and bottom performers, we found that top performers routinely use consumer insights very early in the product-design process and can have products ready for purchase in weeks, not months.
.
But established brands have great difficulty doing either well. This needs to change, as up-and-coming brands are breaking the rules and resetting consumer expectations. [Moi ici: Este título diz tudo "The Customer’s Time is The Only Time"]
...
Top performers make speed to market a top priority and get faster and faster. Top-performing companies can deliver product to market in less than six to eight weeks. The typical lead time in the industry is more than 40 weeks—far too long to stay ahead of consumers [Moi ici: Imaginem um empresário, ou um encarregado, habituados a sonhar com um regresso ao passado, às séries grandes, a um ritmo mais lento, ao ler estas linhas...]

Trecho retirado de "The need for speed: Capturing today’s fashion consumer"

E isto também vai ter o seu impacte "What Should French Fashion Do With Its Unsold Clothing?"

BTW,

"Winners have significantly reduced time to market, but they also recognize that not every product requires a speedy supply chain. Leading fashion companies have divided their product lines into the following supply-chain segments, based on sales predictability:
.
Long cycle for basics. Long lead times of six months or more are acceptable for basics and never-out-of-stock items. Optimized sourcing gets the best value for money on these products.
Shorter cycle for the core seasonal collection. Retailers can use advanced visual-recognition tools to identify styles and colors trending on social-media sites.
Express cycle for new in-season products. An even shorter cycle of three to six weeks from design to delivery allows brands to inject novelty or innovation within a single season.
Read-and-react model for new and untested products. Close monitoring of these items during the season (for example, for trending prints and colors) ensures fast replenishment of top sellers and easier cancellation of slow movers.
Test model for the riskiest products. Launching virtual or small test batches of a sharply trending item provides insight into the consumer response before committing fully to a product."

"There has to be enough energy for them to stop something and start something"

"Des: If you’re a startup founder, what’s a single step you can take with Jobs?
.
Bob: The greatest single step you can make is to actually talk to somebody who recently purchased you, and talk to somebody who recently quit you – or quit the competitor that you’re going after. By understanding these switching moments, you’re pulling a thread. And then once you’ve seen it, you can’t unsee it; you’ll see it over and over again.
.
The first step is always a set of interviews. I’m not talking about surveys. Literally get them on the phone and ask the basic question: why was today the day they signed up for this product? The thing you have to realize is that it’s not random, and you have to dig as hard as you can past the bullshit stuff they’ll tell you upfront. There’s always something deeper, because nobody really wants to switch. Habit is the strongest force of all, and people will just keep doing what they’re doing unless something gets in the way or something better comes a long. There has to be enough energy for them to stop something and start something.
.
Just go talk to your customers. That’s where this all began."

Trecho retirado de "Bob Moesta on unpacking customer motivations with Jobs-to-be-Done"

"The only reliable way to gather this evidence is by exploring what customers did in the past or will do in the present. Asking them what they’ll do in the future, e.g. “Will you use…”, puts you in the land of biases and should be avoided."

Trecho retirado de "Find Better Problems Worth Solving with the Customer Forces Canvas"

"I only care about what was going on in their life"

"Someone might tell you: “I went to give a report, and all of a sudden my bosses went crazy because it wasn’t the right data, and they made me look bad. So I have to find something better.” It’s usually the things they blame themselves for. They don’t say it’s about the product; it’s a separation between their experiences and product. You have to dig deeper than that: it’s really about seeing how products fit into people’s lives.
.
Trying to look at your customer through your product is like looking through a peephole in a fence. You can only see the little interactions they have, as opposed to getting above it all, looking at their life, and seeing how you actually fit in. That’s where the interview takes a turn, because most people always think you’re going to talk about the product. Instead, you’re talking about them.
.
When a lot of companies first start using JTBD they think, “I need you to ask about this feature and that feature.” I don’t care about any of those things. I only care about what was going on in their life that made them say, “Today’s the day.” Those are the pylons and the foundations by which people do things. They don’t think it’s part of your world as a product person, but they are the actual foundations by which you get pulled into their world."

Trecho retirado de "Bob Moesta on unpacking customer motivations with Jobs-to-be-Done"

Quando as galinhas tiverem dentes... (parte ??)

Esta série começou há quase 10 anos, Setembro de 2008, quando estranhei um défice comercial japonês. Depois, o estranho entranha-se, de Agosto de 2012, para culminar em Janeiro de 2014 num novo normal.

Em Abril de 2013 apanhei o primeiro défice comercial chinês. Em Março do ano passado o @nticomuna pôs o tema no meu radar.

Agora, "China’s vanished current-account surplus will change the world economy":

Arte, sempre a arte

Desde 2011 que defendo aqui que o futuro das PME passa pela arte:

• Qual a alternativa?
• O papel da arte
• A ascensão do artesão e da arte na produção

Entretanto, esta semana descobri o livro "Thinking The Art of Management - Stepping into 'Heidegger's Shoes" de David Atkinson. Nele, descobri um artigo de 1987, "Portrait of the Manager as an Artist" de Vincent Degot:

"A long tradition (in terms of the history of industrial capitalism) tells us that business management is to be considered as a proper subject for "scientific" study. One of the reasons supporting this is that management is based on a rationalistic attitude of mind: to achieve optimum use of resources with a view to maximisation of corporate profits. However, a much older tradition teaches us that it would be unwise, from the scientific and rationalistic standpoints, to assume that the business manager is motivated solely, or even essentially, by the goal of maximum profit. To illustrate and define the ideas we shall be developing in the main body of this paper, let us first take a brief look at a rather different field, often known as the "history of art criticism"...To come back to our starting point, it is clear that, while management can benefit from general techniques, applicable in companies of all kinds and themselves reflecting some changes in fashion, it must make allowance for the conditions prevailing within each particular company. This can be done only through experience, given that classroom tuition cannot cover the whole gamut of combinations of factors which have to be handled in practice. This means that a manager may perform brilliantly in one context but poorly in another (in the same way as some painters are at their best with portraits, others with landscapes, and so on). Consequently, one of the talents of the true manager lies in his ability to discover the working environment best suited to his particular gifts."

E ainda:

"In the first place, it might be said that the work has a more overall dimension that the decision: a decision may form part of a work (just as an iconographic motif may be an integral part of a painting). In that case, we must allow that the decisions are not necessarily of the "hard" type (i.e. based on strict economics), but may be of the "soft" variety we have discussed elsewhere. The work comprises perception of the need for something to be done at some point, evaluation of the right decision needed and, finally, implementation of that decision in practical form. There are of course many decision-theories which make due allowance for these three phases, but what we are more, particularly concerned with here is the extent to which each phase leaves room for personal initiative;
...
The creative work commences when its author starts to realise, on the basis of random information - chatting in the corridor, a glimpse of a computer print-out, a report by a consultant, something said at a staff meeting, etc -, that a specific action of some kind will be called for in due course. The creative manager -displaying one of his characteristics to which we come back later - feels that possibility in the form of an impulse, a violent desire for action. He then has to convey to other people all or part of his initial "intuition" - assuming, of course, that others will have to be involved. To this end, he may have to adapt his project to suit the corporate culture context, and relevant external trends (fashions) which could help to support it. In practice, this process is not so clear-nut and deliberate as thus expressed. Owing to this adaptation, the project may fit in with a prevailing "style" or reflect a local "taste" (cultural segment). One way in which he displays his personal talent is his skilful use of the factors in presence when mobilising his entourage to mete the project feasible. He may, for example, be led to formulate it in rationalistic terms as a means of demonstrating its advantages for the corporation, and this reformulation process may affect his original intention. In the same way, there have been times when external factors (patrons, critics) have affected the composition or the subject of a painting."

Um mundo polarizado (parte VII)

Um mundo polarizado (parte VI).

Na parte II coloquei estes gráficos:

Que corroboram bem "Laureano Turienzo: “El ‘Apocalipsis Retail’ es un mito desde el punto de vista numérico”":

"Cuando se habla del Apocalipsis Retail como una pandemia generalista, no es real. La venta por catálogo ofrecida por retailers como Sears también fue un gran destructor de tiendas físicas. Es absurdo porque en el escenario omnicanal no tiene sentido carecer de tiendas físicas. Alibaba invertirá más de quince mil millones de dólares en empresas de retail físico en los próximos años. Hace poco, el grupo abrió la primera librería en Shanghái sin personal humano. Hay ciertos modelos con retail físico cuyo momento actual no es bueno, sino excelente: los actores premium, el low cost y ciertos retailers de valor medio."

Saliento:

"P.: El Cortes Inglés y Macy’s están subalquilando espacios a terceros en sus centros. ¿Es una buena solución ante el exceso de metros?
R.: Macy’s está convirtiendo todas las plantas bajas de sus centros en puro concepto off-price. Aunque se le conocía siempre como lo más exquisito de la atención al cliente, y ahora los descuentos le están yendo bien, este es el peor negocio que puedes hacer. Porque estás perdiendo el ADN. Yo preferiría alquilar parte de mi terreno a alguien que tiene buena reputación de marcas antes que poner un rastrillo en el seno de mis establecimientos. Los grupos de grandes almacenes también tendrían que empezar a pensar en otros negocios, como pueden ser clínicas de belleza, médicas, escuelas de negocios… ese tipo de formatos que jamás hubiesen entrado en un gran almacén a lo mejor tienen que entrar."

e:

"P.: ¿Qué innovación tecnológica cree que le urge más implantar a un retailer físico de moda?
R.: A largo plazo, visualizo establecimientos con un 50% de retail y un 50% de comunidad, con el sentimiento de plaza del pueblo de una tienda Apple. Lo más efectivo es la realidad aumentada. "

Pensar o futuro

Sem conotações partidárias, recordar:

• "É mais importante contratar mais funcionários públicos do que aumentar os salários"
• Segurança Social tem hoje situação "bastante mais equilibrada", diz Costa

Muitas vezes penso na evolução divergente entre o estado, cada vez mais volumoso, cada vez com mais funcionários, e as empresas privadas, cada vez mais lean.

Depois, recordar que Portugal é um dos países mais idosos da Europa, neste postal de 2015:

Comparar Suécia e Portugal.

Por fim, ler "Look at What’s Going to Happen to Sweden’s Fabled Welfare State":

"Sweden’s got a major supply and demand problem.
.
By 2025, its entire workforce is expected to grow by 207,000 people—yet it needs more than that number just to staff its fabled welfare state. The worker shortfall could crimp services and raise labor costs, especially in a political environment less hospitable to immigration.
.
The mismatch is one of the biggest headaches facing Sweden’s next government."

Faz-me impressão que com tanto computador, tanto simplex, não seja possível fazer reengenharia em tantos e tantos sectores do estado.

"most large organizations can’t and don’t change as fast "

Arrisco enveredar por uma linguagem que não aprecio para dizer que só em Portugal é que se acha que as empresas grandes são eternas, talvez por causa da protecção do estado, talvez por causa do nosso crony-capitalism militante. Ainda há dias, "Empresas. Quando ser grande não impede a queda ou a falência".

"why should great companies falter? This is perhaps one of the greatest surprises in business, for if any organizations should succeed and endure, why shouldn’t it be the ones with the most resources and the largest customer bases, not to mention most cash and the broadest global reach? The answer is that they may not be the ones with the best ideas!
Somehow in the process of becoming successful, large, and global, the policies, practices, and habits that worked so well in stable conditions, and which were quite necessary for largeness, also rendered these organizations non-adaptive. Confronted with rapid change, they are not organized to respond adequately; again and again we have seen companies grow huge and then struggle to sustain their market position because their very hugeness inhibits their ability to adapt.
...
When markets change and new ideas take hold, as they inevitably do, most large organizations can’t and don’t change as fast. Instead, newer, more nimble competitors capture market share by innovating where the entrenched giants cannot. Well, actually it may not be true to say that they cannot. But for whatever reason, and although they certainly could, they usually do not.
...
The most compelling is that there’s a gap between the reality of accelerating change and our understanding of what’s really happening. Simply put, too many leaders have a flawed mental picture of the market because they don’t grasp the magnitude and impact of change, and they underestimate its importance to their own organizations. They manage as though markets were stable when they’re anything but; they create slow, hierarchical organizations that concentrate power, emphasize standardization, and seek conformity, when innovation and creativity would serve them - and their shareholders - far better. And these errors are compounded by an analytical thinking style that promotes fragmentation, and causes them to lose sight of the big picture."

Trechos retirados de "Permanent Innovation" de Langdon Harris.

Partes interessadas e a micro-economia

Dois exemplos do dia a dia de aplicação do conceito de ecossistema de partes interessadas.

"Já se assiste a pequenas revoluções setoriais, como no das pedras ornamentais, em que há já uma integração e colaboração entre os vários intervenientes: por exemplo, entre a empresa que explora, o arquiteto e o aplicador que já definem em três dimensões o que desejam para o trabalho final."(1)

"Para comemorar os 10 anos de vida da empresa e os seus 50 anos de idade, Marcelo Alves Inácio vai dar uma festa na fábrica, em Monção, nos dias 13 e 14 de Setembro, para 150 pessoas, tendo já assegurada a presença de "30 pessoas de 22 nacionalidades diferentes, desde revendedores, arquitectos, decoradores..."" (2)

(1) - Mais de 42 milhões em projetos de I&D
(2) - Marcelo “chega fogo” em Monção para ser líder mundial de lareiras de luxo

Associar coisas a experiências

Acerca da economia das experiências recordar, por exemplo:

• Vai uma experiência? (Dezembro de 2011)
• Desenhar experiências (Abril de 2012)
• assistia do seu acampamento, amedrontado, acobardado, aos desafios arrogantes do gigante Golias e... (Abril de 2013)
• "experiences bring people more happiness than do possessions" (Outubro de 2014)
• A economia de experiências a crescer no Algarve (Agosto de 2015)
• Mongo, experiências, emoções, significados e tribos (Agosto de 2016)
• Serviços vs experiências (Julho de 2017)
• "Experiences won’t just sell products. Experiences will be the products" (Abril de 2018)

Mais um tijolo para esta construção, "Why You Should Spend Your Money On Experiences, Not Things":

"Experiences become a part of our identity. We are not our possessions, but we are the accumulation of everything we’ve seen, the things we’ve done, and the places we’ve been. Buying an Apple Watch isn’t going to change who you are; taking a break from work to hike the Appalachian Trail from start to finish most certainly will.
.
“Our experiences are a bigger part of ourselves than our material goods,” said Gilovich. “You can really like your material stuff. You can even think that part of your identity is connected to those things, but nonetheless they remain separate from you. In contrast, your experiences really are part of you. We are the sum total of our experiences.”
...
Anticipation matters. Gilovich also studied anticipation and found that anticipation of an experience causes excitement and enjoyment, while anticipation of obtaining a possession causes impatience.
...
she attributes the temporary happiness achieved by buying things to what she calls “puddles of pleasure.” In other words, that kind of happiness evaporates quickly and leaves us wanting more. Things may last longer than experiences, but the memories that linger are what matter most."

Para os fabricantes de coisas, talvez faça sentido associar coisas a experiências, como um souvenir. Até que ponto alguém nas PME está a trabalhar nisto?