Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta japão. Mostrar todas as mensagens
Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta japão. Mostrar todas as mensagens
sexta-feira, maio 18, 2018
Quando as galinhas tiverem dentes... (parte ??)
Esta série começou há quase 10 anos, Setembro de 2008, quando estranhei um défice comercial japonês. Depois, o estranho entranha-se, de Agosto de 2012, para culminar em Janeiro de 2014 num novo normal.
Em Abril de 2013 apanhei o primeiro défice comercial chinês. Em Março do ano passado o @nticomuna pôs o tema no meu radar.
Agora, "China’s vanished current-account surplus will change the world economy":
quinta-feira, março 27, 2014
Curiosidade do dia
"Japan's population began falling in 2004 and is now ageing faster than any other on the planet. More than 22% of Japanese are already 65 or older. A report compiled with the government’s co-operation two years ago warned that by 2060 the number of Japanese will have fallen from 127m to about 87m, of whom almost 40% will be 65 or older.
...
The 2012 government report said that without policy change, by 2110 the number of Japanese could fall to 42.9m, ie just a third of its current population. It is plausible to think that the country could learn to live with its shrinking population. But that might mean also embracing a much diminished economic and political role in the world."
Trechos retirados de "The incredible shrinking country"
segunda-feira, setembro 26, 2011
Getting back to strategy
Publicado em Novembro de 1988 pela revista Harvard Business Review, "Getting back to strategy" de Kenichi Ohmae, parece-me que continua actual...
.
"Competitiveness” is the word most commonly uttered these days in economic policy circles in Washington most European capitals. (Moi ici: Actualmente, à palavra competitividade juntam-se também palavras como produtividade e custos unitários do trabalho) The restoration of competitive vitality is a widely shared political slogan.
...
(Moi ici: Na altura os maus da fita eram os japoneses) To many Western managers, the Japanese competitive achievement provides hard evidence that a successful strategy’s hallmark is the creation of sustainable competitive advantage by beating the competition. If it takes world-class manufacturing to win, runs the lesson, you have to beat competitors with your factories. If it takes rapid product development, you have to beat them with your labs. If it takes mastery of distribution channels, you have to beat them with your logistics systems. No matter what it takes, the goal of strategy is to beat the competition. (Moi ici: Não se precipitem, o autor só está a descrever o sentimento do mainstream... perigosamente semelhante ao do mainstream actual que pensa que o inimigo é a China, logo, há que reduzir salários)
...
Of course, winning the manufacturing or product development or logistics battle is no bad thing. But it is not really what strategy is—or should be—about. Because when the focus of attention is on ways to beat the competition, it is inevitable that strategy will be defined primarily in terms of the competition. For instance, if the competition has recently brought out an electronic kitchen gadget that slices, dices, and brews coffee, you had better get one just like it into your product line—and get it there soon. If the competition has cut production costs, you had better get out your scalpel. If they have just started to run national ads, you had better call your agency at once. When you go toe-to-toe with competitors, you cannot let them build up any kind of advantage. You must match their every move. Or so the argument goes.
.
Of course, it is important to take the competition into account, but in making strategy that should not come first. It cannot come first. First comes painstaking attention to the needs of customers. First comes close analysis of a company’s real degrees of freedom in responding to those needs. First comes the willingness to rethink, fundamentally, what products are and what they do, as well as how best to organize the business system that designs, builds, and markets them. Competitive realities are what you test possible strategies against; you define them in terms of customers. Tit-for-tat responses to what competitors do may be appropriate, but they are largely reactive. They come second, after your real strategy. Before you test yourself against the competition, your strategy takes shape in the determination to create value for customers. (Moi ici: Até arrepia... tantos anos depois e tão poucos pensam no valor...)
...
Getting back to strategy means fighting that reflex, not giving in to it. It means resisting the easy answers in the search for better ways to deliver value to customers. (Moi ici: Estamos todos fartos da resposta simples rápida e errada, reduzir salários para tornar a indústria mais competitiva) It means asking the simple-sounding questions about what products are about. It means, in short, taking seriously the strategic part of management.
...
(Moi ici: Isto foi escrito em finais de 1988, o exemplo que se segue é sobre o dilema em que se encontravam os empresários japoneses) On one side, there are German companies making top-of-the-line products like Mercedes or BMW in automobiles, commanding such high prices that even elevated cost levels do not greatly hurt profitability. On the other side are low-price, high-volume producers like Korea’s Hyundai, Samsung, and Lucky Gold-star. These companies can make products for less than half what it costs the Japanese. The Japanese are being caught in the middle: they are able neither to command the immense margins of the Germans nor to undercut the rock-bottom wages of the Koreans. The result is a painful squeeze.
...
If you are the leader of a Japanese company, what can you do? I see three possibilities.
...
First, ... pushing hard—and at considerable expense—toward full automation, un-manned operations, and totally flexible manufacturing systems.
...
A second way out of the squeeze is to move upmarket where the Germans are. In theory this might be appealing; in practice it has proven very hard for the Japanese to do. Their corporate cultures simply do not permit it. (Moi ici: A explicação do que se passou com os leitores de CDs é eloquente.) ...The Western companies wanted to make money; the Japanese instinct was to build share at any cost.
...
What sets Japanese companies apart is the consideration that they may have less room to maneuver than others, given their historical experience and present situation. For all these companies, there is a pressing need for a middle strategic course, a way to flourish without being forced to go head-to-head with competitors in either a low-cost or an upmarket game. Such a course exists—indeed, it leads managers back to the heart of what strategy is about: creating value for customers. (Moi ici: Perguntem ao Gordon Ramsay)
...
strategy does not mean beating the competition. It means working hard to understand a customer’s inherent needs and then rethinking what a category of product is all about. The goal is to develop the right product to serve those needs—not just a better version of competitors’ products.
...
Conventional marketing approaches won’t solve the problem. You can get any results you want from the consumer averages. If you ask people whether they want their coffee in ten minutes or seven, they will say seven, of course. But it’s still the wrong question. And you end up back where you started, trying to beat the competition at its own game. If your primary focus is on the competition, you will never step back and ask what the customer’s inherent needs are or what the product really is about. Personally, I would much rather talk with three homemakers for two hours each on their feelings (Moi ici: Os fantasmas estatísticos, a miudagem) about, say, washing machines than conduct a 1,000-person survey on the same topic. I get much better insight and perspective on what customers are really looking for."
.
Excelente artigo!!! Incapaz de ser compreendido por quem só vê custos unitários do trabalho...
.
BTW, ontem vi os primeiros minutos de um programa de Júlio Isidro (na RTP Memória?) onde apareceu um dos primeiros anúncios de televisão? (ou seria para o cinema?) em Portugal. Um anúncio que realçava as propriedades do "Sabão Activado da CUF" ... foi estranho ver um anúncio de um produto doméstico falar, por uma vez, do desempenho superior e não do baixo preço.
.
"Competitiveness” is the word most commonly uttered these days in economic policy circles in Washington most European capitals. (Moi ici: Actualmente, à palavra competitividade juntam-se também palavras como produtividade e custos unitários do trabalho) The restoration of competitive vitality is a widely shared political slogan.
...
(Moi ici: Na altura os maus da fita eram os japoneses) To many Western managers, the Japanese competitive achievement provides hard evidence that a successful strategy’s hallmark is the creation of sustainable competitive advantage by beating the competition. If it takes world-class manufacturing to win, runs the lesson, you have to beat competitors with your factories. If it takes rapid product development, you have to beat them with your labs. If it takes mastery of distribution channels, you have to beat them with your logistics systems. No matter what it takes, the goal of strategy is to beat the competition. (Moi ici: Não se precipitem, o autor só está a descrever o sentimento do mainstream... perigosamente semelhante ao do mainstream actual que pensa que o inimigo é a China, logo, há que reduzir salários)
...
Of course, winning the manufacturing or product development or logistics battle is no bad thing. But it is not really what strategy is—or should be—about. Because when the focus of attention is on ways to beat the competition, it is inevitable that strategy will be defined primarily in terms of the competition. For instance, if the competition has recently brought out an electronic kitchen gadget that slices, dices, and brews coffee, you had better get one just like it into your product line—and get it there soon. If the competition has cut production costs, you had better get out your scalpel. If they have just started to run national ads, you had better call your agency at once. When you go toe-to-toe with competitors, you cannot let them build up any kind of advantage. You must match their every move. Or so the argument goes.
.
Of course, it is important to take the competition into account, but in making strategy that should not come first. It cannot come first. First comes painstaking attention to the needs of customers. First comes close analysis of a company’s real degrees of freedom in responding to those needs. First comes the willingness to rethink, fundamentally, what products are and what they do, as well as how best to organize the business system that designs, builds, and markets them. Competitive realities are what you test possible strategies against; you define them in terms of customers. Tit-for-tat responses to what competitors do may be appropriate, but they are largely reactive. They come second, after your real strategy. Before you test yourself against the competition, your strategy takes shape in the determination to create value for customers. (Moi ici: Até arrepia... tantos anos depois e tão poucos pensam no valor...)
...
Getting back to strategy means fighting that reflex, not giving in to it. It means resisting the easy answers in the search for better ways to deliver value to customers. (Moi ici: Estamos todos fartos da resposta simples rápida e errada, reduzir salários para tornar a indústria mais competitiva) It means asking the simple-sounding questions about what products are about. It means, in short, taking seriously the strategic part of management.
...
(Moi ici: Isto foi escrito em finais de 1988, o exemplo que se segue é sobre o dilema em que se encontravam os empresários japoneses) On one side, there are German companies making top-of-the-line products like Mercedes or BMW in automobiles, commanding such high prices that even elevated cost levels do not greatly hurt profitability. On the other side are low-price, high-volume producers like Korea’s Hyundai, Samsung, and Lucky Gold-star. These companies can make products for less than half what it costs the Japanese. The Japanese are being caught in the middle: they are able neither to command the immense margins of the Germans nor to undercut the rock-bottom wages of the Koreans. The result is a painful squeeze.
...
If you are the leader of a Japanese company, what can you do? I see three possibilities.
...
First, ... pushing hard—and at considerable expense—toward full automation, un-manned operations, and totally flexible manufacturing systems.
...
A second way out of the squeeze is to move upmarket where the Germans are. In theory this might be appealing; in practice it has proven very hard for the Japanese to do. Their corporate cultures simply do not permit it. (Moi ici: A explicação do que se passou com os leitores de CDs é eloquente.) ...The Western companies wanted to make money; the Japanese instinct was to build share at any cost.
...
What sets Japanese companies apart is the consideration that they may have less room to maneuver than others, given their historical experience and present situation. For all these companies, there is a pressing need for a middle strategic course, a way to flourish without being forced to go head-to-head with competitors in either a low-cost or an upmarket game. Such a course exists—indeed, it leads managers back to the heart of what strategy is about: creating value for customers. (Moi ici: Perguntem ao Gordon Ramsay)
...
strategy does not mean beating the competition. It means working hard to understand a customer’s inherent needs and then rethinking what a category of product is all about. The goal is to develop the right product to serve those needs—not just a better version of competitors’ products.
...
Conventional marketing approaches won’t solve the problem. You can get any results you want from the consumer averages. If you ask people whether they want their coffee in ten minutes or seven, they will say seven, of course. But it’s still the wrong question. And you end up back where you started, trying to beat the competition at its own game. If your primary focus is on the competition, you will never step back and ask what the customer’s inherent needs are or what the product really is about. Personally, I would much rather talk with three homemakers for two hours each on their feelings (Moi ici: Os fantasmas estatísticos, a miudagem) about, say, washing machines than conduct a 1,000-person survey on the same topic. I get much better insight and perspective on what customers are really looking for."
.
Excelente artigo!!! Incapaz de ser compreendido por quem só vê custos unitários do trabalho...
.
BTW, ontem vi os primeiros minutos de um programa de Júlio Isidro (na RTP Memória?) onde apareceu um dos primeiros anúncios de televisão? (ou seria para o cinema?) em Portugal. Um anúncio que realçava as propriedades do "Sabão Activado da CUF" ... foi estranho ver um anúncio de um produto doméstico falar, por uma vez, do desempenho superior e não do baixo preço.
Marcadores:
china,
competitividade,
custos unitários do trabalho,
estratégia,
japão,
ohmae,
preço-baixo,
produtividade,
reduzir salários,
subir na escala de valor
segunda-feira, fevereiro 14, 2011
Talvez ajude a explicar a decadência japonesa em curso.
"One finding is that brand equities in Japan are remarkably stable. Each year, I comment on the new data and, while some of the same brands are always at the top, there are some changes. The rank order is not identical, but the top brands out of 1,000 are always eerily familiar."
.
Trecho retirado daqui "Japan Builds Brands to Last".
.
O meu julgamento deste fenómeno japonês é negativo. Uma paisagem que não varia é sinónimo de que o mercado não está a funcionar. Num mundo saudável há sempre marcas a aparecer e a ascender e marcas a morrer.
.
Talvez ajude a explicar a decadência japonesa em curso.
.
Trecho retirado daqui "Japan Builds Brands to Last".
.
O meu julgamento deste fenómeno japonês é negativo. Uma paisagem que não varia é sinónimo de que o mercado não está a funcionar. Num mundo saudável há sempre marcas a aparecer e a ascender e marcas a morrer.
.
Talvez ajude a explicar a decadência japonesa em curso.
quarta-feira, abril 07, 2010
Resposta
A propósito deste comentário
Atenção!! Não sou macro-economista, por isso vou ultrapassar o que domino.
O Japão também teve uma bolha imobiliária e um crash! As soluções que o governo adoptou foram semelhantes às que os governos agora adoptaram e que agora deu nisto “No mundo ocidental "o crescimento económico será praticamente inexistente"”.
O Japão é o país em que a demografia está mais desequilibrada para uma sociedade muito envelhecida. As pessoas não consomem, a deflação reina há mais de 10 anos. Ou seja, o mercado interno está a implodir (Ver Japan Economy Watch e no Facebook as teses de Claus Vistesen sobre a influência do envelhecimento das sociedades no crescimento da economia)
A minha deriva profissional da engenharia química para a gestão começou pela qualidade. Qualidade no final dos anos 80 do século passado era sinónimo de Japão! Quando se falava em qualidade à japonesa, falava-se da mensagem do livro Kaizen de Masaaki Imai: conformidade (ausência de defeitos); custo e entrega.
.
Se reparar, esta tríade: conformidade; custo e prazo de entrega é a base da proposta de valor do preço mais baixo.
.
A seguir à II Guerra Mundial o mercado interno japonês criou uma sociedade super competitiva que quando na década de 60/70 começou a exportar, trucidou a competição no Ocidente. Por exemplo, as companhias americanas de automóveis só se comparavam com as europeias… as japonesas eram aliens desconhecidas, como contou no Porto há anos numa conferência James Womack. O que aconteceu foi isto. O Ocidente mudou, reconverteu-se e as empresas japonesas não conseguiram estar à altura do desafio de mudança: cristalizaram.
terça-feira, dezembro 08, 2009
quinta-feira, setembro 10, 2009
Engenharia eleitoral (parte II)
Lembram-se das encomendas da defesa alemã que empolaram o PIB germânico, so convenient in this election period...
.
O Japão também teve eleições hà dias.
.
Reparem nesta pérola de engenharia eleitoral:
.
" Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese machinery orders fell to a record low in July, signaling companies burdened with idle factories are wary that a rebound in global demand will last.
Orders, an indicator of capital spending in the next three to six months, plunged 9.3 percent from June to 665 billion yen ($7.2 billion), the lowest level since the survey began in 1987, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The decline was more the twice the 3.5 percent drop forecast by economists."
.
And now something completely different:
.
"The decline in the machinery data was largely a reaction to a 9.7 percent jump in June that was driven by a single order for equipment used to generate nuclear power, the Cabinet Office said."
.
Recortes retirados de "Japan Machine Orders Fall to Record Low as Factories Sit Idle"
.
Lá se vai a retoma...
.
O Japão também teve eleições hà dias.
.
Reparem nesta pérola de engenharia eleitoral:
.
" Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese machinery orders fell to a record low in July, signaling companies burdened with idle factories are wary that a rebound in global demand will last.
Orders, an indicator of capital spending in the next three to six months, plunged 9.3 percent from June to 665 billion yen ($7.2 billion), the lowest level since the survey began in 1987, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The decline was more the twice the 3.5 percent drop forecast by economists."
.
And now something completely different:
.
"The decline in the machinery data was largely a reaction to a 9.7 percent jump in June that was driven by a single order for equipment used to generate nuclear power, the Cabinet Office said."
.
Recortes retirados de "Japan Machine Orders Fall to Record Low as Factories Sit Idle"
.
Lá se vai a retoma...
quarta-feira, agosto 26, 2009
Sinais que também contam...
... será que também têm o mesmo tempo de antena que os outros?
.
"Japanese exports continue to fall", ou seja, uma vez acabados os estímulos volta tudo a Dezembro de 2008... se calhar é isso, vamos a caminho de uma bolha de estímulos governamentais. Pode ser alimentada até quando? Bom, a Alemanha tem eleições a 27 de Setembro próximo e o Japão também proximamente.
.
"Japanese exports slid in July at a faster annual rate than June, raising fears the effects of global stimulus measures are starting to decline."
.
Aprendi ontem que um tal de Thorndike, investigador no ramo da psicologia, em 1911 publicou a pelos vistos famosa lei do efeito:
.
"Behaviors that are followed by satisfaction are more likely to occur in the future under the same circunstances; behaviors that are followed dissatisfaction are less likely to occur in the future under the same circunstances."
.
Julgo que é algo do género que está em jogo aqui. Um arquétipo a que Senge chamou "fixes that fail"
.
"Japanese exports continue to fall", ou seja, uma vez acabados os estímulos volta tudo a Dezembro de 2008... se calhar é isso, vamos a caminho de uma bolha de estímulos governamentais. Pode ser alimentada até quando? Bom, a Alemanha tem eleições a 27 de Setembro próximo e o Japão também proximamente.
.
"Japanese exports slid in July at a faster annual rate than June, raising fears the effects of global stimulus measures are starting to decline."
.
Aprendi ontem que um tal de Thorndike, investigador no ramo da psicologia, em 1911 publicou a pelos vistos famosa lei do efeito:
.
"Behaviors that are followed by satisfaction are more likely to occur in the future under the same circunstances; behaviors that are followed dissatisfaction are less likely to occur in the future under the same circunstances."
.
Julgo que é algo do género que está em jogo aqui. Um arquétipo a que Senge chamou "fixes that fail"
Adenda: "Stiglitz: "A retoma económica é uma ilusão"":
.
""A economia mundial continua fundamentalmente fraca", afirmou ainda. Na sua opinião, a quebra brutal dos stoks das empresas provocada pela crise está a arenuar-se, o que "dá a ilusão de uma melhoria" da conjuntura, mas a xrise ainda não acabou. "Na verdade, caímos numa recessão normal"."
Subscrever:
Mensagens (Atom)