À atenção do ministro da Economia

O impacte do fim da China como fábrica do mundo no FT de ontem:

Recordar estas palavras:

"Se a conjuntura explicasse tudo, a aceleração não seria apenas em Portugal, seria um fenómeno europeu e isso não é a realidade", acrescentou."

Segundo o ministro da Economia de Portugal só Portugal é que está a crescer...

Macacos não voam

Recordando Porter e os seus conselhos a Portugal durante o consulado de Cavaco Silva.

Recordando "Os macacos não voam, trepam às árvores, um exemplo".

Cuidado com os investimentos de alta tecnologia suportados por generosos apoios estatais se não há tradição no sector.

Curiosidade do dia

Dizem-me que é ruído.

"What won’t you be?"

"Today’s economy, he notes, is “replete with winner-take-all effects [Moi ici: Sabem que acredito que isto é passageiro, uma espécie de doença infantil das plataformas "Estratégia em todo lado - não é winner-take-all (parte V)"] and huge advantages that accrue to the biggest and best-run organizations, to the detriment of upstarts and second-fiddle players.”
...
But is the only strategy in our winner-take-all era to get as big as possible, to aspire to eventually serve everyone, and to meet their every need?...
We’re not trying to meet all needs. So, Amazon’s business strategy is super broad. Meet all needs. I mean, the stuff that will be in Prime in five or ten years will be amazing, right? And so we can’t try to be that — we’ll never be as good as them at what they’re trying to be. What we can be is the emotional connection brand, like HBO or Netflix. So, think of it as they’re trying to be Walmart, we’re trying to be Starbucks. So, super focused on one thing that people are very passionate about.
...
Michael Porter would approve. “The essence of strategy is choosing what not to do,” he writes in his 1996 classic “What Is Strategy?” In Porter’s view, sustainable competitive advantage depends on trade-offs, including the fact that it’s difficult for one company to serve all customers across a wide range of needs.
...
In an era where a small number of huge companies have unprecedented reach and control, Porter’s central question seems more important than ever: What won’t you be?"

Trechos retirados de "How Can Companies Compete with Amazon? Netflix Has the Answer"

Lemingues (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

A propósito deste texto de Tim Harford "The age of the Microsoft and Amazon economy". Os teóricos acreditam nisto:

"One of my first economics lessons contrasted perfect competition, which was judged to be a good thing, with monopoly, which was not."

Concorrência perfeita significa igualdade, significa que só resta o preço como factor diferenciador. Claro que um adepto e promotor da concorrência imperfeita não podia estar mais em desacordo com a suposta beleza da concorrência perfeita. VIVAM os monopólios informais.

A Lego entrou no vermelho por causa da concorrência perfeita e saiu dela quando promoveu a concorrência imperfeita e o monopólio informal mental na mente dos seus fãs.

"This is surprising. As the world economy grows, one might expect markets to become more like the perfectly competitive textbook model, not less. [Moi ici: Em Mongo ...não será esta a via] Deregulation should allow more competition; globalisation should expose established players to pressure from overseas; transparent prices should make it harder for fat cats to maintain their position. Why hasn’t competition chipped away at the market position of the leading companies? The simplest explanation: they are very good at what they do. Competition isn’t a threat to them. It’s an opportunity."

Os números e a tendência de concentração citada por Tim Harford é ainda um sintoma do estertor do século XX porque foi neste período que se deu o êxodo industrial para a Ásia. A globalização não foi feita por empresas chinesas a entrarem no Ocidente, foi feita por empresas do Ocidente a montarem fábricas na China ou a aproveitarem fábricas incipientes na China para substituírem a produção nos mercados de consumo.

Efeito de rede?

"“A nossa expectativa para 2017 é entre o melhor ano de sempre e o muito melhor ano de sempre”, afirma a presidente executiva da Associação da Hotelaria de Portugal (AHP), Cristina Siza Vieira."(1)

E isto apesar do sucesso do turismo de alojamento local.

Os gananciosos acreditam que a economia é um jogo de soma nula e que o que uns ganham é o que os outros perdem. Por isso, querem proibir ou restringir essa suposta concorrência.

“What’s made them successful over the past 10 years is their ability to create new entities, movies, TV shows, by partnering with brilliant people. They’ve said: ‘We might not make as much money if we outsource it, but the product will be better.’ That mentality is very Danish. It comes from saying: ‘We’re engineers. We know what we’re good at. Let’s stick to our knitting.’ That’s a very brave thing to do and it’s where a lot of companies go wrong. They don’t understand that sometimes it’s better to let go than to hang on.”(2)

Será que estamos perante um efeito de rede?

Porque muitos turistas vêm através do turismo local criam um buzz e uma dinâmica que atraem outros para o alojamento turístico tradicional?

Recordar "O poder das associações e nas associações"

(1) - Trecho retirado de "Hotelaria rumo ao melhor ano de sempre"
(2) - Trecho retirado de "How Lego clicked: the super brand that reinvented 

Formação: Gestão por processos

Interessados em participar numa formação sobre Gestão por processos com a duração de 25 horas podem consultar a informação em Formação: Gestão por processos.

Temas a abordar em torno de:

• 15. Quantos processos?
• 14. Abordagem por processos e riscos
• 13. Processos, funções, competências
• 12. Caracterizar um processo
• 11. Razão de ser de um processo
• 10.Designar um processo
• 9. SG um portfolio de iniciativas
• 8. Contexto e críticos
• 7. Função objectivo
• 6. I’ll be back!
• 5. Eliminar as estruturas sistémicas conspirativas (parte II)
• 5. Identificar as estruturas sistémicas conspirativas (parte I)
• Não há acasos!
• Uma empresa: uma caixa negra
• Pergunta venenosa
• "algo não bate certo nesta abordagem"
• Acerca dos processos
• Transformar, apesar do travesti (parte I)

Curiosidade do dia

"Edmund Burke saw society as a partnership between those who are living, those who are dead, and those who are yet to be born. A failure to understand this relationship underlies a disturbing global tendency in recent decades, in which the appropriation of future wealth and resources for current consumption is increasingly disadvantaging future generations. Without a commitment to addressing this inequity, social tensions in many societies will rise sharply.
Central to the issue is that the rapid rise in living standards and prosperity of the past 50 years has been largely based on rising debt levels, ignoring the costs of environmental damage and misallocation of scarce resources.
A significant proportion of recent economic growth has relied on borrowed money -- today standing at a dizzying 325 percent of global gross domestic product. Debt allows society to accelerate consumption, as borrowings are used to purchase something today against the promise of future repayment. Unfunded entitlements to social services, health care and pensions increase those liabilities. The bill for these commitments will soon become unsustainable, as demographic changes make it more difficult to meet.
...
This growing burden on future generations can be measured. Rising dependency ratios -- or the number of retirees per employed worker -- provide one useful metric. In 1970, in the U.S., there were 5.3 workers for every retired person. By 2010 this had fallen to 4.5, and it’s expected to decline to 2.6 by 2050. In Germany, the number of workers per retiree will decrease to 1.6 in 2050, down from 4.1 in 1970. In Japan, the oldest society to have ever existed, the ratio will decrease to 1.2 in 2050, from 8.5 in 1970. Even as spending commitments grow, in other words, there will be fewer and fewer productive adults around to fund them.
...
Future generations will bear the ultimate cost of present decisions or inaction. As in Francisco Goya’s famous painting, “Saturn Devouring His Son,” today, the old are eating their children."

Entretanto por cá reformaram a Segurança Social por cem anos... pois, balelas:

 "In 2006 for every 100 persons aged 55-64 there were 117 persons aged 20-29, a value that decreased to 80 in 2016."

Trechos retirados de "The Old Are Eating the Young"

Fuçar, em directo

Em muitos sectores de actividade vemos os seus actores, quando a paisagem competitiva muda, a pedirem apoios do Estado. A maior parte desses apoios serve para adiar o inevitável. Recordar Spender.

O que tenho lido sobre a reacção de alguns centros comerciais à evolução do retalho electrónico é interessante e revelador do que acontece em qualquer sector económico quando o mundo muda e os actores mais activos fuçam em busca de uma nova oportunidade.

Quando um encontra uma combinação vencedora começa o spill-over que dissemina o novo conhecimento.

Alguns exemplos:

• Retail Isn’t Dead, But It Does Need To Adapt;
• A New Model for Shopping Malls
• The Rise of Luxury Strip Malls

Volume vs Lucro

"Thankfully, today’s data visualization from Ishtyaq Habib shows the top 100 biggest companies by market value, but uses circles to represent both the revenue and profit for each company.
...
The first noticeable difference in this version?
.
It’s that Apple is unparalleled in its ability to make money. In fact, Apple’s 2016 profit of $45 billion is far bigger than any other company, including Berkshire Hathaway ($24 billion), JPMorgan Chase ($24 billion), Wells Fargo ($22 billion), Alphabet ($19 billion), Samsung ($19 billion), Toyota ($17 billion), Johnson & Johnson ($16 billion), or Walmart ($14 billion).
.
The only companies that can compare with Apple were Chinese banks like ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, or China Construction Bank, but in many ways these state-owned enterprises are on an entirely different playing field, anyways.
.
Also impressive: Apple’s profits are bigger than the revenues of massive companies like Coca-Cola ($41.5 billion) or Facebook ($27.6 billion).
...
Other organizations need to rely on razor-thin margins and volume to make things work. Walmart only brought in $14 billion of profit off of a whopping $485 billion of revenue – a margin of just 2.8%. Meanwhile, fast-growing Amazon was in a similar boat with margins of 1.7%, largely provided by its wildly successful AWS service.
.
Lastly, it is also worth noting that some on the list did not make a margin at all. These are mostly companies that are suffering from the challenges of down cycles in natural resources. Chevron and mining giant Glencore, for example, were two of the Top 100 Companies that both lost money in 2016, while BP essentially broke even."

Trechos retirados de "The Top 100 Companies: Revenue vs. Profit"

Trabalhar para subir na escala de valor

Um sintoma bom: "“Portugal, o outro país do design”, diz o Le Monde"

Uma fama a ser alimentada, sustentada, trabalhada, para subir na escala de valor.

BTW, "Importância do design em debate"

Lemingues (parte II)

Parte I.

"Because the pricing lever is so easy to pull and generates quick results for investors, retailers are often tempted to make quick, gut decisions to generate foot traffic with low prices. But this addiction is unstainable and not an isolated incident. Major companies are buckling down for bigger investments on price in the absence of other avenues to compete.
...
Play to win. But only after you know where, when and how much to compete. Most retailers can’t afford to blindly follow the lowest market pricing (and they shouldn’t). The good news is that you don’t have to meet or beat all prices on all products to win. The key is identifying which products are most critical to customer price perception and then understanding the results a price reduction will yield.
...
Pull the price lever. But don’t use it as a crutch. The power of pricing to drive volume and profits is unparalleled. Used correctly, it can be highly accretive. Abused, it can lead to quick ruin. Today’s customer demands competitive prices, but also craves experience, brand connection and convenience (among other things). Price should be a key part of your competitive strategy; however, it shouldn’t be your entire competitive strategy. If parts of your overall growth strategy aren’t resonating with consumers, you’re always going to go back to price. And the more you do that, the harder it becomes to break that cycle or addiction.
...
Price wars are becoming the next retail addiction and will cause a “death spiral” as retailers race to the bottom on price. In this scenario, only the financially fittest will survive. In the short term, consumers should benefit from lower prices on the shelf, but long term everybody loses if focus continues to coalesce around competing on price and away from areas like customer experience and innovation. Not only is this behavior inherently self-destructive, it begins closing off future avenues to growth. Once you’ve won a customer’s share of wallet based solely on the price of the good, what’s next? They are likely to stay only so long as you continue to be the lowest priced option."

Fundamental ter uma estratégia de diferenciação. Fundamental fugir da dependência do preço. Fundamental pensar por si próprio e não por ver as acções dos outros.

Trechos retirados de "Price War: Retail’s Latest Self-Destructive Addiction"

Curiosidade do dia

"Assunção Cristas admite autorizar eucalipto em zonas de regadio ao abandono"

"Para António Costa, que assinou com a empresa do grupo Altri, contratos de investimento na ordem dos 125 milhões de euros, para as fábricas da Leirosa e de Vila Velha de Ródão, é preciso melhorar a produtividade das florestas nacionais e isso envolve melhorar também a produtividade do eucalipto..Assinados os contratos de investimento, que vão permitir criar a maior unidade de descasque e destroçamento de madeira da Europa, o primeiro ministro plantou a ideia de reconstruir o setor florestal e explicou como fazê-lo: "valorizando os nossos recursos autóctones, que são decisivos para a riqueza do país, mas também necessariamente a plantação do eucalipto".

Trecho retirado de "Investimento de milhões na indústria do papel"

Cenários e estratégia (parte VIII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III,  parte IV, parte V, parte VI e parte VII.

Na parte anterior sublinhámos:

"it is important to distinguish between immediate actors one does business with (located in the smaller brown oval) and the diverse factors in the larger contextual environment. The contextual factors are beyond the influence of the organization. Scenario planning is about exploring how larger contextual factors might affect an organization. Scenarios are developed by combining contextual factors (particularly ones that are less well-known and more uncertain). Each scenario will be based on a unique combination of contextual factors."

E volto a sublinhar "The contextual factors are beyond the influence of the organization"

O problema da monocultura florestal é como o problema do sector público: dimensão, escala, volume.

Quando um privado faz uma asneira e implode, é um problema isolado. Quando se trata de um sector público a dimensão pode ser tão grande que vai ter impacte em toda a sociedade.

O futuro é incerto e pôr todas as fichas (recordo o que Taleb me ensinou sobre os estóicos e o investimento) numa hipótese pode ser problemático.

Recordo todas as previsões para Sines com o alargamento do canal do Panamá...

Além do refluxo da globalização, acrescentar:

• Realizado primeiro transporte de veículos comerciais por comboio entre a China e o Reino Unido
• Volvo torna-se o primeiro fabricante automóvel a exportar veículos novos da China para a Europa por ferrovia

COAR-map e mapas da estratégia (parte VIII)

 Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI e parte VII.

"After the capabilities were identified at a high level, the next step is to create an analytical framework as shown in Table 6 (table shows a partial list of capabilities):

Each cell contains a score to reflect the state of the capability the following information:

• 0 (zero): The capability does not exist at all

• 1 (one): The capability needs to be improved

• 2 (two): The capability is good enough for meeting customer and stakeholder outcomes

The cells could be colored green, yellow or red for visual effect.
This analysis prepares the organization for the hands‐on effort in executing strategy. To efficiently carry out the operational activities required for designing and administering sales compensation, the organization needs to:

• For cells with a ‘0’ identify the specific capabilities that are missing

• For cells with a ‘1’ identify the specific capabilities that need to be improved

• Perform a detailed analysis to identify programs and projects that will create or improve the capabilities. This list is a very key input to the strategy execution effort of the organization

• Select programs and projects to implement (see the section on ‘Portfolio Management’ below for some details on how to select a program or project)

• Monitor the core objectives to ensure the strategy execution stays on track (accountability)

• Build organizational processes to ensure continuous improvement"

Isto é muito parecido com a abordagem que seguimos para identificar que investimentos realizar ao nível da perspectiva de recursos e infra-estruturas.

Trechos retirados de "Importance of Strategy Execution in Influencing Sales Behavior"

"What is going to be scarce is human imperfection"

"In the world of the future, automated perfection is going to be common. Machines will bake perfect cakes, perfectly schedule appointments and keep an eye on your house. What is going to be scarce is human imperfection.
...
If you have a world where the amount of perfect products we can produce increases almost infinitely by using AI, robots and clean energy, we’ll end up with a surfeit of supply, which will push the supply curve far to the right. It will come along with demand curve and ultimately the price will decline.
.
What will be plentiful will be the perfect product. What will be rare will be imperfect products; the products that got touched by the human hand.
.
A little bit like Persian rug which are produced with error in them. The waivers believed that only god can produce perfection. We might start to value the things that are less perfect, from the ones that are, from the less scarcity value.
...
Human-made will be valuable — I can imagine going into a supermarket and seeing on the shelf products labeled “not touched at all by a robot or machine”.
This will be one part of the artisan economy—the economy in which humans will have the space to excel in experiential, discretionary, and intimate. Robots will take all those things that are of high risk, seek reliability, and are repetitive."

Em linha com "Pensado e fabricado por humanos, de carne e osso".

Mongo passa por isto, pela arte, pelas tribos, pela diversidade.

Trechos retirados de "There is one thing that computers will never beat us at"

"we cannot say any single strategy in the Prisioner’s Dilemma ecology was a winner"

"the landscape of manufacturing changes continually; there is no 'end of history' in the sense of the relative powers of each country locking in a position and staying there for decades and centuries to come. Any forecast that manufacturing in any given country is dead and buried should be treated with suspicion, as each change in technology, costs and demographics alters the landscape that manufacturers face as they make their decisions. It may be very difficult to restart making in a country, but it is not impossible."

Como não recordar as experiências de Lindgren que Eric Beinhocker no seu "The Origin of Wealth" me deu a conhecer:

"Likewise, we cannot say any single strategy in the Prisioner’s Dilemma ecology was a winner. .
Lindgren’s model showed that once in a while, a particular strategy would rise up, dominate the game for a while, have its day in the sun, and then inevitably be brought down by some innovative competitor. Sometimes, several strategies shared the limelight, battling for “market share” control of the game board, and then an outsider would come in and bring them all down. During other periods, two strategies working as a symbiotic pair would rise up together – but then if one got into trouble, both collapsed.”
…
“We discovered that there is no one best strategy; rather, the evolutionary process creates an ecosystem of strategies – an ecosystem that changes over time in Schumpeterian gales of creative destruction.”

Trecho inicial retirado de "From global to local" de Finbarr Livesey

Curiosidade do dia

Para reflexão

Olhando para este gráfico:

Comparemos 1995 com 2016 na ITV Portuguesa:

Lemingues

Um almoço na sexta-feira passada deixou-me, por momentos, com os cabelos em pé. Até cheguei a citar:

"confusing testosterone with strategy is a bad idea"

Voltei a recordar o tema da conversa ao ler "How Lego clicked: the super brand that reinvented itself".

Quando a Lego começou a se afundar o que recomendaram os teóricos?

"Consultants hurried to Lego’s Danish HQ. They advised diversification. The brick had been around since the 1950s, they said, it was obsolete. Lego should look to Mattel, home to Fisher-Price, Barbie, Hot Wheels and Matchbox toys, a company whose portfolio was broad and varied. Lego took their advice: in doing so it almost went bust. It introduced jewellery for girls. There were Lego clothes. It opened theme parks that cost £125m to build and lost £25m in their first year. It built its own video games company from scratch, the largest installation of Silicon Graphics supercomputers in northern Europe, despite having no experience in the field."[Moi ici: Copiar independentemente disso ter alguma relação com o ADN]

Hoje a Lego é um sucesso financeiro e uma super-marca mas não por causa destas recomendações.

"Vig Knudstorp rescued Lego by methodically rebuilding it, brick by brick. He dumped things it had no expertise in – the Legoland parks are now owned by the British company Merlin Entertainments, for example. He slashed the inventory, halving the number of individual pieces Lego produces from 13,000 to 6,500. (Brick colours had somehow expanded from the original bright yellow, red and blue, sourced from Piet Mondrian, to more than 50.) He also encouraged interaction with Lego’s fans, something previously considered verboten. Far from killing off Lego, the internet has played a vital role in allowing fans to share their creations and promote events like Brickworld, adult Lego fan conventions. [Moi ici: De certa forma é o que as PME que dão a volta fazem. Não tendo dinheiro para se perderem em diversificações que raramente resultam, concentram-se no que sabem fazer bem, trabalham a marca para B2B e fogem do preço trabalhando a relação com o cliente]
...
“What’s made them successful over the past 10 years is their ability to create new entities, movies, TV shows, by partnering with brilliant people. They’ve said: ‘We might not make as much money if we outsource it, but the product will be better.’ That mentality is very Danish. It comes from saying: ‘We’re engineers. We know what we’re good at. Let’s stick to our knitting.’ That’s a very brave thing to do and it’s where a lot of companies go wrong. They don’t understand that sometimes it’s better to let go than to hang on.”
...
“The reality is that the last few years the growth has been supernatural,” Julia Goldin, Lego’s chief marketing officer, tells me. “When you look at the proportion of revenue that’s coming out of the mature markets it becomes more and more challenging with the level of penetration."

Não adianta copiar o que os outros fazem. O que se aplica a umas empresas não se aplica a outras. E quem nos garante que o que os outros fazem, mesmo para eles, é a melhor opção? A testosterona não é uma boa conselheira.

Cenários e estratégia (parte VII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III,  parte IV, parte V e parte VI.

"it is important to distinguish between immediate actors one does business with (located in the smaller brown oval) and the diverse factors in the larger contextual environment. The contextual factors are beyond the influence of the organization.Scenario planning is about exploring how larger contextual factors might affect an organization. Scenarios are developed by combining contextual factors (particularly ones that are less well-known and more uncertain). Each scenario will be based on a unique combination of contextual factors."

 Trechos e imagem retirada de "Using Scenario Planning to Reshape Strategy"

COAR-map e mapas da estratégia (parte VII)

 Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V e parte VI.

"The Strategy Execution Map provided a blueprint for the organization to think through the execution issues and key activities inherent in defining and administering sales compensation plans.
It provided clarity by:
...
Crisply defining 'success' from the customer viewpoint. This made it easier for the organization to examine funding decisions by evaluating a project request against core objectives.
...
Showing the line of sight from a capability to an outcome.
This provided an unprecedented basis for understanding the intent of the program and gaining commitment to a shared purpose. Every individual could now see exactly how their efforts were contributing to meeting customer and stakeholder outcomes
...
The Strategy Execution Map provided focus by:

• Highlighting the need to develop options that achieve outcomes 
• Requiring the organization to collaborate in selecting options that met customer and stakeholder outcomes
• Stack rank and eliminate options that did not help in meeting customer and stakeholder outcomes or which were otherwise suboptimal

.
Once the options were narrowed down to those that should be implemented, the organization could then focus on the chosen opens. Additionally, the Strategy Execution Map eliminated the churn caused by incomplete understanding of why a decision was made and not understanding why certain options were eliminated."

Sem tirar nem pôr, é isto que gosto num mapa da estratégia: uma ligação directa entre o que fazer e os outcomes. É impressionante como em tantas e tantas empresas o que conta é actividade, quantidade de trabalho, movimento, ... se gera outcomes estratégicos? Isso é muita areia para a camioneta.

Trechos retirados de "Importance of Strategy Execution in Influencing Sales Behavior"

Curiosidade do dia

Há dias o @icyView chamou-me a atenção para este pormaior. Sempre que há um artigo de opinião no Expresso que bajula o actual governo acontece uma coisa extraordinária... não há paywall!!!

Hoje chamaram-me a atenção para mais um servicinho de Nicolau Santos "O dia em que Schäuble e Dombrovskis engoliram um grande sapo".

Com que então Schäuble e Dombrovskis engoliram um grande sapo!!!! Porquê?

Será que Schäuble e Dombrovskis mudaram de discurso?

Será que Schäuble e Dombrovskis mudaram de referencial?

Será que Nicolau Santos não tem memória de o projecto inicial de orçamento de Centeno para 2016 apontar para um défice de 2,6% e que essa proposta foi recusada e que Centeno teve de refazer o orçamento apontando aos 2,2%?

Por mim acho muito bem que o PS apoiado pelo Bloco e os comunistas faça o "trabalho sujo" que a direita não consegue fazer, não só porque ela também é socialista mas sobretudo porque não controla os "avençados" da comunicação social e a rua. Toda a gente sabe que a austeridade de esquerda é muito mais fácil de suportar e generosa que a austeridade de direita.

Cenários e estratégia (parte VI)

Parte I, parte II, parte III,  parte IV e parte V.

"Rather than trying to predict the future, organizations need to strengthen their abilities to cope with uncertainty.
...
Rather than tying their company’s future to a strategy geared to a single set of events, many senior executives are coming to the view that smart management benefits from a richer understanding of the present possibilities afforded from multiple views about possible futures.
...
 the Oxford scenario planning approach is based on plausibility. By recognizing the part of uncertainty that is unpredictable and by actively exploring the sources of the turbulence and uncertainty, the goal is to iteratively and interactively generate new knowledge and insights to help organizations reperceive their circumstances.
.
During periods of turbulence, unpredictable uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity (what the Oxford scenario planning approach refers to as TUNA conditions), organizations frequently experience serious challenges that threaten existing value chains, communities, and even whole fields of endeavor. Such conditions can be unsettling and destabilizing on many different levels. But they also present opportunities for organizations to reframe their strategies and innovate.
...
A core feature in the Oxford approach is making a distinction between the immediate business environment an organization inhabits (where business transactions take place) and the broader environment, or context, in which it operates. In principle, our approach focuses on two layers. The first layer is the immediate business environment and includes a company’s suppliers, customers, competitors, partners, and other stakeholders. The second layer is made up of all the factors that are beyond the organization’s direct influence. Scenario planning is about exploring how the second layer might transform the first layer."

Trechos retirados de "Using Scenario Planning to Reshape Strategy"

COAR-map e mapas da estratégia (parte VI)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV e parte V.

"Step 5: Define CapabilitiesAfter identifying customer and stakeholder outcomes, competitive objectives and core objectives, the organization now turned its attention to identifying the capabilities required to achieve success.[Moi ici: O equivalente à perspectiva de recursos e infraestruturas que uso na base do mapa da estratégia]
...

• By aligning the capabilities with the core objectives the organization knew which capability contributed to which core objective

• By knowing which capabilities were weak and which ones were strong, the organization was able to make informed choices on program and project selection"

I rest my case: competitividade e CUT (parte X)

 Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII e parte IX.

Sabem como gosto de ver a economia como uma continuação da biologia.

Este artigo, "Cities should be studied as evolutionary hotspots, says biologist", vem ao encontro de um pensamento que anda a correr em modo batch algures na minha mente.

"Equilíbrio pontuado é uma teoria evolutiva proposta pelos paleontólogos norte-americanos Niles Eldredge e Stephen Jay Gould em 1972, que propõe que a maior parte das populações de organismos de reprodução sexuada experimentam pouca mudança ao longo do tempo geológico e, quando mudanças evolutivas no fenótipo ocorrem, elas se dão de forma rara e localizada em eventos rápidos de especiação denominados cladogênese.
.
O equilíbrio pontuado é frequentemente contrastado com a teoria do gradualismo, a qual afirma que a evolução ocorre de maneira uniforme, por mudança contínua e gradual de linhagens inteiras (anagênese). Segundo essa visão, a evolução é vista como um processo suave e contínuo."

Na parte IX ficámos neste momento t+1:

E perguntámos:

"O que pode fazer com a empresa verde mude de ideias e resolva voltar para o outro pico onde está a empresa azul?"

Imaginemos que o pico que a empresa verde está a subir é o do valor acrescentado e o que a empresa azul está a subir é o do preço-baixo.

O mais provável é que a empresa verde evolua para:

No entanto, se assumirmos que a empresa verde é um ser vivo, e recordando esta citação da coluna da direita no blogue:

"nature evolves away from constraints, not toward goals"

Se a gestão da empresa verde sentir que os chineses azuis desapareceram, ou rareiam no pico "azul", é provável que a ausência de constrangimentos, o instinto e facilidade de pensar preço, e a ideia de que apostar preço é menos incerta no curto-prazo, pode levar a esta evolução:

Se eu fosse governo interventionista e quisesse evitar este retorno da empresa verde ao mundo do preço aumentaria o SMN, apesar do desemprego que ele geraria. (Por que é que os migrantes de Calais querem ir para o Reino Unido e não colocam a hipótese de ficar em França?)

Se eu fosse governo não-interventionista teria de admitir esta possibilidade de actuação para a empresa verde como uma possibilidade honesta e trataria de estar atento à redução das barreiras à entrada e à redução do custo de falhar no pico do valor acrescentado para que mais agentes individuais aparecessem e optassem pelas várias alternativas nos vários picos.

Estamos em mais um desses momentos de alteração tectónica no fenótipo o que acelera o ritmo da evolução.

Mudar de modelo de negócio: outro exemplo

Um trecho muito interessante para que os teóricos bebam sobre como fazem os práticos:

"Há mais de 30 anos que trabalha na Lasa. Este é o melhor momento que o grupo está a viver?Já vivemos momentos muito melhores. Era bem mais fácil trabalhar quando recebíamos grandes encomendas e não tínhamos uma concorrência tão feroz. A crise obrigou-nos a um grande ajustamento e a flexibilizar a nossa estrutura para produzirmos quantidades mais pequenas.
.
Como aguentaram o embate da adesão dos asiáticos à OMC?Entramos num sistema permanente de ajustamento a uma realidade concorrencial muito diferente e bem mais agressiva. A flexibilização da estrutura produtiva foi apenas uma das componentes da nossa estratégia.
.
O que fizeram mais?Criamos a Lasa Internacional, o braço logístico da LASA, e apostamos em marcas próprias e numa relação directa com o retalho, o que nos obrigou a apresentar duas colecções/ano e a fazer um grande investimento em stocks permanentes para podermos fornecer quaisquer quantidades directamente em qualquer ponto da Europa, num prazo de 48 horas.
.
Quando se fornece directamente o retalho, o preço deixa de ser o factor determinante?Nesse segmento de negócio, a nossa vantagem competitiva assenta essencialmente no design, na qualidade e no serviço, ou seja, na capacidade de dar uma resposta rápida, que garantimos por termos 130 mil referências em stock.
.
O que aprenderam com a crise?Aprendemos que para continuarmos a ser competitivos num mundo em permanente mudança não podemos parar de investir e de inovar nos recursos humanos, design e produtos diferenciadores."

Triste o crime dos custos de contexto:

"Os custos energéticos são uma grande fatia das nossas despesas. É incompreensível o aumento da electricidade a que temos vindo a assistir todos os anos – e estamos a falar de incrementos de dois dígitos, o que nos dificulta ainda mais a vida face à concorrência internacional." 

O que costumo dizer no CTCP: o futuro da escola profissional é voltarmos ao século XIX e os empresários pagarem as escolas que formarão os seus profissionais:

"É fácil contratar mão-de-obra especializada?
Infelizmente, não. Há grandes problemas. A escassez de recursos humanos é um dos grande males que aflige o nosso sector. É muito difícil arranjar um bom tecelão, uma pessoa com formação em química para trabalhar com as máquinas de tinturaria ou um especialista em design. Estamos sempre a dar formação internamente para tentar contornar esse problema, uma vez que o nosso ensino de cariz técnico deixou de dar resposta."

Trechos retirados de ""CONSUMIDORES PREFEREM TUDO QUANTO É NATURAL E ORGÂNICO""

Curiosidade do dia

"Se anualizarmos a taxa de crescimento trimestral, método utilizado nos EUA, a economia portuguesa está a crescer a mais de 4% ao ano. Em quanto ficará em 2017, não sei.
.
Suponhamos que vai ficar em 3%. Ora o orçamento para 2017 tem como objetivo um défice de 1,6% do PIB com base num crescimento de 1,5%. Que acontecerá ao défice se o crescimento da economia for superior? Terá de ser menor: haverá mais receita de impostos e menos despesa, por exemplo em subsídio de desemprego. A cábula diz que, por cada ponto percentual de crescimento a mais, o défice tem de ser meio ponto a menos. Por exemplo se o crescimento for de 3% em 2017 o défice terá de ficar em 0,8% do PIB: 3 menos 1,5 dá 1,5, cuja metade é 0,75; finalmente, 1,6 menos 0,75= dá 0,8 (arredondado). Ou seja, o crescimento “adicional” da economia em 2017 conduziria a um défice que é metade do que está no orçamento! Se esta redução não ocorrer então quer dizer que o governo se apropriou dos “dividendos do crescimento” seja aumentando despesa, para lá do orçamentado, ou reduzindo impostos. O “há mais vida para além do défice” terá então triunfado sobre a consolidação orçamental. Não seria bom pois, inter alia, a dívida não teria sido reduzida tanto como poderia ter sido."

Trecho retirado de "O genial amigo: o défice excessivo"

COAR-map e mapas da estratégia (parte V)

Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV.

"Step 4: Clarify core objectives
The organization next turned to the question of identifying “success” in using SIC as a lever to influence the sales force behavior. The success measures are termed Core Objectives.
The Core Objectives (see Exhibit 10) served as a platform to unify the various stakeholders who have to collaborate in meeting the customer (sales force) outcomes. By establishing common goals, Cisco could develop new business processes focused on improving collaboration.
Exhibit 11 shows how the Core Objectives align with the competitive objectives and the customer and stakeholder outcomes."

Olho para isto e vejo a relação com:

Que uso quando desenvolvo mapas da estratégia.


Continua.

 Trechos retirados de "How strategy execution maps guided Cisco System’s Sales Incentive Compensation plan"

Cenários e estratégia (parte V)

Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV,

"First, making strategy is not about accurate forecasting. You must consider the multiple interpretations of present concerns and historical trajectories that help to constitute  those forecasts.
...
Second, achieving an innovative future is not about forgetting the past. Some people have suggested that new strategies require strategic “forgetting,” so that organizations are not anchored in old ways of doing things.
...
Constructing new narratives is a way to achieve change while at the same time showing how the new strategy achieves some form of continuity with a (reimagined) past. In other words, history matters — but not in the way you might think. The past is not a singular guide to the future. In fact, it is the multiplicity and ambiguity of experiences of the past that enable the different interpretations that can generate innovative alternatives.
Third, strategy making is not about getting the “right” narrative. It’s about getting a narrative that is good enough for now, so that the organization can move forward and take action in uncertain times. This recognizes that strategy will in some ways always be evolving and “emergent.” Our view of strategy making suggests that the narratives that managers construct will shape the direction of future actions, just as those actions, in turn, will lead to further reconfiguring of the company’s strategic narratives over time.
Fourth, breakdowns in the strategy-making process are not failures but rather opportunities for learning and for reconfiguring the strategic narrative.
...
A model of strategy making that focuses on strategic narratives provides insights into a long-standing puzzle about the sources of competitive advantage: Is company performance mainly derived from luck or managerial foresight? Evidence from our field study suggests that both past legacies and future projections shape future outcomes."

O tempo que agora vivemos

Recuar a Outubro de 2011 e a "Recordar Lawrence... nada está escrito (parte X)" onde se mencionava: "Made in America, Again - Why Manufacturing Will Return to the U.S.".

Nesse texto podia ler-se:

"The conditions are coalescing for another U.S. resurgence. Rising wages, shipping costs, and land prices—combined with a strengthening renminbi—are rapidly eroding China’s cost advantages. The U.S., meanwhile, is becoming a lower-cost country. Wages have declined or are rising only moderately. The dollar is weakening. The workforce is becoming increasingly flexible. Productivity growth continues.
.
Our analysis concludes that, within five years, the total cost of production for many products will be only about 10 to 15 percent less in Chinese coastal cities than in some parts of the U.S. where factories are likely to be built. Factor in shipping, inventory costs, and other considerations, and—for many goods destined for the North American market—the cost gap between sourcing in China and manufacturing in the U.S. will be minimal. In some cases, companies will move work to inland China to find lower wages. But this will not be an attractive option in many indus- tries. Chinese cities in the interior provinces lack the abundance of skilled workers, supply networks, and efficient transportation infrastructure of those along the coast, offsetting much of the savings afforded by slightly lower labor costs."

É este o tempo que agora vivemos, o "within five years, the cost gap between sourcing in China and manufacturing in the U.S. will be minimal."

O fim da China como a fábrica do mundo, a re-industrialização vai acelerar.

Sandy vs MacGyver ou Espirais recessivas e outras patranhas

"It is often underappreciated just how quickly a country’s fortunes can change. In 2004, Germany was considered the sick man of Europe. Five years later, after some judicious reforms to its labor market, it was Europe’s economic powerhouse. Four years ago, Spain was widely dismissed as an economic basket case, one step away from national bankruptcy and euro exit. Yet since mid-2013, it has been growing at around 3% a year and created two million jobs.
.
That points to a second aspect to economic turnarounds: They are rarely obvious at the time, even to the economists, policy makers and pundits paid to spot these things. Famously, 364 distinguished economists—among them Mervyn King, who later became governor of the Bank of England—wrote to the Times in 1981 to warn that Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s policies were doomed to fail. Yet history shows that Britain’s recovery began at almost exactly that moment, and five years later its economy was booming."(1)

Basta recordar o economista Cavaco Silva, então presidente da república a prever a tal "espiral recessiva". Este anónimo da província, ao mesmo tempo escrevia:

• Estimulogia e a espiral recessiva  (Janeiro de 2013)

Ao longo dos anos escrevi aqui no blogue tantas e tantas vezes previsões ao arrepio das previsões dos economistas, dos académicos e comentadores, e quase sempre acertei: acerca do desemprego; acerca das exportações; acerca das estratégias; acerca do euro; acerca de ...

Entretanto encontro estes trechos:

"E]conomics and business are not the same subject, and mastery of one does not ensure comprehension, let alone mastery of the other. A successful business leader is no more likely to be an expert on economics than on military strategy:. As we have seen, companies do not appear very often in international trade theories, with one or two exceptions?' However, if anyone is to gain a clear perspective on what is happening in the real world, that has got to change.
...
William Milberg and Deborah Winkler comment that 'there are considerable limits to the economists' own models. In particular, the economists' views on offshoring are closely tied to an outmoded theory of comparative advantage'.. The main problem is that the economic models don't capture the broader institutional context, including company strategy or the actions of governments to regulate products and trade. We have to look at what companies are doing — they are the main actors in our drama — rather than being led by either the claims of countries or the outputs of models."

Economistas pensam em modelos...

Há meses CEO disse a propósito de um procedimento para validação de investimentos na sua empresa:

- Se perguntar ao meu pai porque optou há 8 anos por investir uma pipa de massa numa máquina fora da caixa, quando o mercado estava em crise, e que agora dá-nos o pão nosso de cada dia, ele diria que  "teve um feeling".

Economistas pensam em modelos, como a Sandy, empresários pensam como MacGyver:

"Well, I say we trust our instincts—go with our gut. You can't program that. That's our edge."

(1) - Trecho retirado de "Now Britain, Not France, Risks Being ‘Sick Man’ of Europe"

(2) - Trechos retirados de "From Global to Local" de Finbarr Livesey

Curiosidade do dia

Outro decoupling em vista?

De um lado a economia real:

• além dos anúncios que todos os dias surgem de estabelecimento de call centers e outros centros de serviços de maior valor acrescentado;
• Portugal com o terceiro maior crescimento da indústria na União Europeia
• Portugal com a quarta taxa de criação de emprego mais elevada da UE
• Construção precisa de 80 mil operários nos próximos anos
• Cooperativa da Beira prevê produzir 100 toneladas de frutos silvestres 
• Maior fabricante mundial de botões investe mais cinco milhões e cria 12 empregos
• Setor do turismo prevê forte aumento do emprego nos meses do verão
• Portugal é o maior exportador de bicicletas da União Europeia
• EXPORTAÇÕES DE MATÉRIAS TÊXTEIS COM CRESCIMENTO DE QUASE 9%
• Exportações de vinho cresceram 8% no primeiro trimestre
• Exportações de cerâmica subiram 20% em quatro anos
• Nos primeiros cinco meses do ano foram constituídas mais de 18 mil empresas

E quanto melhor correr a economia real na Europa menos justificação tem o BCE para continuar a praticar o QE. Como irá correr? "Why Portugal has confounded the bond sceptics"

Cenários e estratégia (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

"The past, present and future were thus all interpreted and reinterpreted in the CommCorp strategy-making process, and these interpretations were multiple, interdependent — and sometimes conflicting.
...
New visions of the future also triggered reconsiderations of current concerns.
...
The more the participants reconsidered present concerns, the greater the tensions that arose. However, it was through such interactions that new connections were built among the past, present and future.
...
A particular view of the future shaped and was shaped by certain understandings of history and present priorities. Envisioning new futures provoked reassessments of the past and present, just as new understandings of current concerns triggered new imaginings of the future and alternative versions of history. Negotiating these interpretive differences proved to be central to strategy making in practice"

Fundamental esta experiência repetida de sondar, criar uma narrativa e pôr a empresa em cheque, testar mentalmente como será viver no futuro hipotético e como será a preparação para esse futuro.

Continua.


"Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives"

COAR-map e mapas da estratégia (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

"Step 3: Clarify competitive objectivesAfter identifying the customer and stakeholder outcomes, the next step is to identify the competitive objectives that need to be achieved to gain a sustained competitive advantage in the marketplace.

...

This graphic enabled managers to see why investments had to be matched with the desired outcomes. For example, time, money and effort spent on simply increasing the untargeted productivity of the sales force were unlikely to effectively produce the desired behavior."

Continua.

 Trechos retirados de "How strategy execution maps guided Cisco System’s Sales Incentive Compensation plan"

'Playing Not to Lose Syndrome'

Mateus 25, 14:30

"His business suffered from slowing growth, systemic service problems, and aggressive and new competitors.
.
However, he seemed unable or unwilling to alter his course. He was worried about changing too much and possibly making things worse. So, he chose to stay the course. Now, here he was having dinner with me, losing his company and unemployed.
...
This senior executive is a perfect example of a person who has the 'Playing Not to Lose Syndrome.' Instead of striving to win and thrive in business, he was merely hoping not to lose and make it through one more day.
...
The real problem with doing just enough to get by and no more is that, like a person treading water, it ultimately doesn't work. At some point, you must swim to shore, or you will drown.
.
People believe that if they keep their heads down, nothing will change. Yet they lose anyway and what they are trying so hard to protect gets blown up in the end. And yet, the human tendency is to hold tighter and tighter to the status quo as though it were a security blanket--not understanding that it's smothering them!"

Trechos retirados de "How Avoiding Harsh Realities Cost These Leaders Their Business"

I rest my case: competitividade e CUT (parte IX)

 Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII e parte VIII.

O que significa aumentar a produtividade através da redução do denominador (através do aumento da eficiência)?

Significa aumentar a competitividade mantendo a qualidade, o tipo das saídas. Significa subir ao longo do pico na paisagem competitiva.

O que significa aumentar a produtividade através do aumento do numerador? (através do aumento da eficácia)?

Significa aumentar a competitividade alterando a qualidade, o tipo das saídas. Significa "desistir" do pico onde se está e optar por competir num outro pico.

Acham que a a empresa "verde" compete com a empresa "azul"?

Lembram-se das toutinegras, ou rouxinóis(?) de McArthur?

Acham que elas competem entre si?

A empresa azul está num campeonato diferente do da empresa verde. Não faz sentido comparar os parâmetros de uma empresa que compete num pico com os de outra que compete num outro pico na paisagem competitiva e argumentar que uma é mais ou menos competitiva que outra.

Por exemplo, a empresa verde pode ser a empresa que vendia sapatos a 20€ e deixou de ser competitiva nesse pico e mudou de vida para hoje ter sucesso a vender sapatos a 230€. Será que essa empresa verde compete com as empresas chinesas que produzem sapatos que são vendidos a 10€ nas sapatarias portuguesas?

Agora imaginemos que a empresa verde é alemã e a empresa azul é grega. Continuam a não competir ente si, mesmo que os salários dos alemães cresçam mais depressa.

O que pode fazer com a empresa verde mude de ideias e resolva voltar para o outro pico onde está a empresa azul?

Continua.

Curiosidade do dia

How many times, for Heaven's sake? Austerity isn't a punishment forced on voters by sadists. It's what happens when we still have a deficit.

— Daniel Hannan (@DanielJHannan) June 14, 2017

Ultimamente tenho pensado na Lei de Rhodes e nos que não queriam participar.

Como ler e não pensar

Como ler "Is America Encouraging the Wrong Kind of Entrepreneurship?" e:

• não pensar na década longa de estímulo à economia não transaccionável e na consequência disso;
• não pensar na demência introduzida pela Política Agrícola Comum que leva a produzir sempre mais do que o mercado precisa e recompensar por isso;
• não pensar na recente política do Governo português de agir como business angel e apoiar o empreendedorismo de alto risco;
• não pensar nos empreendedores mais preocupados com os programas de apoio do que em seduzir clientes pagantes;
• ...

"In a 1990 paper, “Entrepreneurship: Productive, Unproductive, and Destructive,” Baumol argued that the level of entrepreneurial ambition in a country is essentially fixed over time, [Moi ici: A pool de empreendedores tem uma dimensão constante, se os incentivos reduzem a incerteza, é natural que diminua a quantidade de genuínos empreendedores] and that what determines a nation’s entrepreneurial output is the incentive structure that governs and directs entrepreneurial efforts between “productive” and “unproductive” endeavors.
.
Most people think of entrepreneurship as being the “productive” kind, as Baumol referred to it, where the companies that founders launch commercialize something new or better, benefiting society and themselves in the process. A sizable body of research establishes that these “Schumpeterian” entrepreneurs, those that are “creatively destroying” the old in favor of the new, are critical for breakthrough innovations and rapid advances in productivity and standards of living.
.
Baumol was worried, however, by a very different sort of entrepreneur: the “unproductive” ones, who exploit special relationships with the government to construct regulatory moats, secure public spending for their own benefit, or bend specific rules to their will, in the process stifling competition to create advantage for their firms. Economists call this rent-seeking behavior."

E genuinamente sem querer entrar na política partidária, talvez durante o tempo da troika, com a redução forçada dos incentivos, por falta de dinheiro e não por ideologia, a tal pool constante de empreendedores teve de se virar para os "“Schumpeterian” entrepreneurs".

Para os jornais supostamente económicos, e para os jornais generalistas, a economia era e é o que sobra do PSI 20 (recordar aqui e aqui):

• BRISA; EDP; PT; BES; ...

Tudo empresas que chegaram ao ponto a que sabemos

Só falta chegarmos às produtoras de pasta de papel...