domingo, junho 04, 2017

"The choice for a sure bet"

"people overwhelmingly opt for certainty, regardless of whether that certainty is in the present or the future, or whether it pertains to gains or losses. Interestingly, these findings break with a foundational theory of behavioral economics first outlined in 1979.
Prospect theory, as it’s known, asserts that when there is something to be gained, we tend to choose certainty over uncertainty.
These contrasting preferences have been replicated hundreds of times by hundreds of researchers across myriad contexts, which is why Hardisty and Pfeffer were puzzled by results at odds with the theory’s predictions. By injecting temporal considerations into the equation, the researchers found that even when people face losses, they favor certainty over uncertainty.
“People really don’t like the complexity and cognitive load of making decisions under uncertain circumstances,” says Pfeffer. The choice for a sure bet, he says, may be the mental equivalent of shrugging in resignation."
Trechos retirados de "Why Uncertainty Makes Us Less Likely to Take Risks"

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