Cenários e estratégia (parte V)

Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV,

"First, making strategy is not about accurate forecasting. You must consider the multiple interpretations of present concerns and historical trajectories that help to constitute  those forecasts.
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Second, achieving an innovative future is not about forgetting the past. Some people have suggested that new strategies require strategic “forgetting,” so that organizations are not anchored in old ways of doing things.
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Constructing new narratives is a way to achieve change while at the same time showing how the new strategy achieves some form of continuity with a (reimagined) past. In other words, history matters — but not in the way you might think. The past is not a singular guide to the future. In fact, it is the multiplicity and ambiguity of experiences of the past that enable the different interpretations that can generate innovative alternatives.
Third, strategy making is not about getting the “right” narrative. It’s about getting a narrative that is good enough for now, so that the organization can move forward and take action in uncertain times. This recognizes that strategy will in some ways always be evolving and “emergent.” Our view of strategy making suggests that the narratives that managers construct will shape the direction of future actions, just as those actions, in turn, will lead to further reconfiguring of the company’s strategic narratives over time.
Fourth, breakdowns in the strategy-making process are not failures but rather opportunities for learning and for reconfiguring the strategic narrative.
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A model of strategy making that focuses on strategic narratives provides insights into a long-standing puzzle about the sources of competitive advantage: Is company performance mainly derived from luck or managerial foresight? Evidence from our field study suggests that both past legacies and future projections shape future outcomes."