Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte XII)

 Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X. e parte XI.

Segue-se outra previsão, de "The Great Fragmentation : why the future of business is small" de Steve Sammartino, que vem ao encontro do que escrevemos aqui no blogue há muitos anos acerca dos prosumers e da tendência para empresas mais pequenas:

"The laptop corporation.
The story of access isn’t limited to production and digital services. This is true for all the major elements that go into the business marketing mix. We also have access to new ways of raising finance, … And we have access to an audience, ... A more accurate and wider view is that we’re all laptop corporations if we want to be. If anyone has access to an entry-level, $500 device and an internet connection, they also have access to a media production facility, a media distribution facility, low-cost labour markets, the world’s manufacturing districts, global banking and payment systems, and even bespoke capital-raising techniques from crowdfunding websites. In real terms, anyone with access to the network has access to all of the important factors of production.
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Access to technology and information creates access to an everything state.
Information not only changes what we can know and what we can do, it changes where we’ll get it. We’re entering the age of the infinite store, where you, I and everyone else can retail.
…
What it means for business
Everything a company can do, a person can do now too. Having a large corporate infrastructure is no longer an advantage."

Uma grande vénia ao recentemente falecido Alvin Toffler que escreveu sobre as electronic cottages do futuro no distante ano de 1980:

O meu exemplar, herdado de casa dos meus pais.

Estratégias ajustadas e desajustadas

A leitura de "The Jobs-to-be-Done Growth Strategy Matrix" fez-me voltar a encontrar esta figura:

Que tinha descoberto e referido em "JTBD e estratégia".

O reencontro com a figura fez-me pensar em várias conversas da semana passada:

Os jornais e os media tradicionais em geral, acossados pelos "chineses" da internet, responderam de forma errada querendo actuar como disruptores quando deviam ter apostado na diferenciação para servir os clientes underserved que continuariam a comprar jornais com melhores conteúdos.

O sector do leite protesta contra as importações de leite. O leite importado para Portugal é mais caro que o leite exportado de Portugal, sinal de que os compradores nacionais desse leite importado não encontram cá certos tipos de leite para o qual o preço não é o mais importante.

Muitas mercearias morreram ao longo das últimas duas décadas porque não se definiram, em vez de competir pelo preço com os "chineses" dos hipermercados, podiam ter optado pela diferenciação e especialização ou pela proximidade e relação.

Já o calçado português, incapaz de competir com os chineses genuínos salvou-se optando por estratégias baseadas na diferenciação (moda por exemplo) ou na proximidade/flexibilidade.

Que outros exemplos acrescentaria?

"There are no pricing problems; only segmentation problems"

"What is the most important thing you can share about pricing?

• There are no pricing problems; only segmentation problems. [Moi ici: Qual é mesmo a segmentação que a sua empresa faz?]

• Think about your end-customer first.

• Value is in the perspective of the person with whom you are talking.

• The value changes in context as well.

...
How does a price war destroy value?

• War results in destruction and casualties and price war leads to value destruction. – Dropped Mobile Profits

• There is a misconception of success when you capture market share.

• The causation effect is lost in the minds of people during a price war.

• Market share at any cost is chasing the wrong target.

• Which comes first, market share or profit?

• Profit comes first as it creates value for the customer; value comes first."

Trechos retirados de "The Ethics of Price Discrimination with Rags Srinivasan"

Curiosidade do dia

"Não tenhamos, pois, ilusões: 2017 não será o ano em que deixamos o passado lá atrás. A resposta é chutar para a frente. Que não funciona é tão certo como a minha mãe não fazer anos todos os dias. Mas a maioria quer e é o que vamos ter. Assim, o meu desejo limita-se a que, aos com discernimento, lhes seja permitido não contrair mais dívida dos outros; consigam ser responsáveis pelos seus actos, sem que isso seja considerado egoísmo, mas mera justiça. Já seria muito.
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Para muitos até demais."

Trecho retirado de "A minha mãe não faz anos todos os dias"

Marcas em tempos de saída do armário

"Brands can be a source of comfort, regardless of product or service category. That’s a power I contend we as brand marketers under value, especially in uncertain times. And it’s especially a power that brand skeptics certainly have no appreciation for; it’s pretty difficult to “take comfort” in a generic, no matter how cheap.
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Why and how does this develop? I contend that when life is uncertain or in crisis, our survival instincts are hard-wired to gravitate toward the “tried and true” versus the unknown. Why take a chance? Brands, by their very nature, are created to be a “known commodity” to their constituency. Being known is the first requirement of trust. With consistency brands become a rock for the customer in very unsatisfying or uncertain circumstances – and can justify a premium for that."

Isto é verdade. Concordo. É mais uma razão para sublinhar "The opposite of unpredictable is strategic"

No entanto, há uma perspectiva que me assaltou logo: os tempos são de incerteza também por causa das pessoas. As pessoas não são estáticas, as pessoas não estão definidas. Cada vez mais as pessoas são projectos em desenvolvimento, são projectos em constante redefinição. Ah! Recordo um congresso de Marketing em Lisboa em 2007... em que ouvi Charles Schewe a falar sobre as "cohorts.

E recordo a empresa de calçado em 2009... as quasi-avós de hoje que nos anos 80 abanaram o capacete a ouvir Nina Hagen no pavilhão do Académico do Porto não terão os mesmos gostos que as suas avós.

E recordo Seth Godin, o mercado de massas não foi uma criação da procura, foi uma criação da oferta.

Os tempos são de incerteza para quem estava habituado a trabalhar para o meio-termo, para a grande massa da maioria estável no Normalistão. Mas as pessoas estão a abandonar por vontade própria o Normalistão estão a sair do armário e a assumir as suas especificidades.

Num mundo em que cada vez mais somos todos weird as marcas vão ter de se definir, vão ter de abandonar o meio-termo.

BTW, esta semana ao descer a Avenida da Boavista numa zona que julgo que ainda é in, Pinheiro Manso, vi uma loja de uma marca que não conhecia: Code. Ontem, sábado, fui a Rio Tinto e entrei num Pingo Doce para levantar dinheiro. E vi uma loja da mesma marca que desconhecia até à passada Terça-feira. A minha mulher informou-me que era uma marca do mesmo grupo que detém o Pingo Doce.

Weird... uma das duas localizações estará errada. Como não entrei não sei qual.

Trecho retirado de "How Brands Become A Source Of Comfort"

Depois, a culpa é do euro.

“I recommend that the Statue of Liberty on the East Coast be supplemented by a Statue of Responsiblity on the West Coast.”

Depois, a culpa é do euro.

Frase atribuída a Viktor Frankl

Narrowing Your Focus

"Narrowing Your Focus
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What is the most important thing you can share about pricing?
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• The foundation of your ability to increase your prices is your ability to deliver more value to your customers.
• The key to delivering more value is your willingness to restrict or narrow who you serve and what you do for them.
• Narrowing is difficult because it triggers a survival instinct."

Trecho retirado de "How to Create Value Through Positioning with Philip Morgan"

Curiosidade do dia

"of all the bad things that happened to people in hospitals, the one that most preoccupied Redelmeier was clinical misjudgment. Doctors and nurses were human, too. They sometimes failed to see that the information patients offered them was unreliable—for instance, patients often said that they were feeling better, and might indeed believe themselves to be improving, when they had experienced no real change in their condition. Doctors tended to pay attention mainly to what they were asked to pay attention to, and to miss some bigger picture. [Moi ici: Recordar Pre-suasion e a importância desmesurada daquilo a que se chama a atenção] They sometimes failed to notice what they were not directly assigned to notice."

Trecho retirado de "Michael Lewis’ The Undoing Project: How do ER surgeons avoid dumb, deadly mistakes? Ask their doctor."

Mais do que o custo

"Our research into business model innovation in Asia uncovered two distinct, yet overlapping, waves of innovation: one decades old and still going, and one that ... is evolving now.
...
The first wave, as we call it, primarily exploited differences in labor and other input costs between developed and developing markets. By contrast, the second wave is driven primarily by business model innovation and typically leverages new technology. [Moi ici: Em tom quasi irónico direi que apostam em dumping legislativo. Sociedades mais abertas à mudança e com menos direitos adquiridos pelos incumbentes] These companies are characterized by extensive and often radical reconfigurations of the profit formula, resources, processes, and relationships within a broader stakeholder ecosystem.
...
The first wave of innovation from emerging markets in Asia has been predicated on the replication of existing business models at lower cost. As the model has evolved, it has become increasingly sophisticated,
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Nonetheless, we believe the second wave could be even more disruptive than the first wave was. There are three reasons why, all of which reveal the ability of second-wave companies to achieve scale while remaining nimble.
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The first reason is that second-wave companies fundamentally reimagine various facets of the business model. The second is that second-wave companies find new, often digitally enabled, ways in which resources and processes can be leveraged, ... The third is that second-wave companies identify creative ways for partners, stakeholders, and customers to be involved in value creation and capture, [Moi ici: Co-criação e ecossistemas]
...
If you want to reimagine your own business model, the first step is challenging the fundamental assumptions about what it means to be a business, employee, partner, or customer."

Trechos retirados de "The Next Wave of Business Models in Asia"

Que acham da capacidade dos humanos? (parte II)

Parte I.

Há anos li um texto, (era capaz de jurar que o li em "Thinking, Fast and Slow" de Daniel Kahneman...mas também poderia tê-lo lido em "Risk Savvy: How To Make Good Decisions" ou em "Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making" de Gerd Gigerenzer), que ilustrava como duas pessoas observando o mesmo jogo, observando as mesmas imagens, chegavam a conclusões honestas completamente diferentes porque cada uma processava as imagens de forma diferente em função da sua preferência clubística.

Como não recordar as palavras equivocadas do candidato Cavaco Silva:

"dois adultos, (de boa-fé acrescentava eu, perante os mesmos factos chegam às mesmas conclusões"

Assim, foi com um sorriso que encontrei estes trechos em "Pre-suasion":

"Imagine that you are in a café enjoying a cup of coffee. At the table directly in front of you, a man and a woman are deciding which movie to see that evening. After a few minutes, they settle on one of the options and set off to the theater. As they leave, you notice that one of your friends had been sitting at the table behind them. Your friend sees you, joins you, and remarks on the couple’s movie conversation, saying, “It’s always just one person who drives the decision in those kinds of debates, isn’t it?” You laugh and nod because you noticed that too: although the man was trying to be diplomatic about it, he clearly was the one who determined the couple’s movie choice. Your amusement disappears, though, when your friend observes, “She sounded sweet, but she just pushed until she got her way.”
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Dr. Shelley Taylor, a social psychologist at the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA), knows why you and your friend could have heard the same conversation but come to opposite judgments about who determined the end result. It was a small accident of seating arrangements: you were positioned to observe the exchange over the shoulder of the woman, making the man more visible and salient, while your friend had the reverse point of view. Taylor and her colleagues conducted a series of experiments in which observers watched and listened to conversations that had been scripted carefully so that neither discussion partner contributed more than the other. Some observers watched from a perspective that allowed them to see the face of one the parties over the shoulder of the other, while other observers saw both faces from the side, equally. All the observers were then asked to judge who had more influence in the discussion, based on tone, content, and direction. The outcomes were always the same: whomever’s face was more visible was judged to be more causal.
...
No matter what they tried, the researchers couldn’t stop observers from presuming that the causal agent in the interaction they’d witnessed was the one whose face was most visible to them. They were astonished to see it appear in “practically unmovable” and “automatic” form, even when the conversation topic was personally important to the observers; even when the observers were distracted by the researchers; even when the observers experienced a long delay before judging the discussants; and even when the observers expected to have to communicate their judgments to other people. What’s more, not only did this pattern emerge whether the judges were male or female, but also it appeared whether the conversations were viewed in person or on videotape."

O que pensar dos programas sobre repetição de imagens de lances polémicos no futebol?

"The opposite of unpredictable is strategic"

Há mais de 15 anos ouvi Robert Kaplan contar a razão porque a Mobil era clara e transparente com a sua estratégia. Só a intervenção dos advogados é que impediu que até as metas na perspectiva financeira fossem publicadas.

Se os trabalhadores não conhecerem a estratégia como a irão executar? Como estarão alinhados com ela? E se os concorrentes a quiserem copiar ... será que ela é a adequada para a sua realidade? Cuidado com os observadores de motards podem ter o mesmo sucesso que Dick Dastardly.

"My clients and students assume that competitors should surprise one another with their strategies. Your competitors, they think, should have no idea what you’re going to do.
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I predict many of you will say: Of course. Being unpredictable is a competi­tive advantage.
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Not so fast.
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Keeping secrets can protect competitive advantage.
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But secrecy is not the same thing as unpredictability. Secrecy creates an incentive to invest in assets, especially intellectual ones. Unpredictability bluffs, postures, and palters to gain advantage through uncertainty and misdirection. Unpredictability can put another party off-balance. It can confuse them, cloud their thinking, cause them to waste time and effort, and trick them into making a mistake.
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There are times when, at least in theory, the potential benefits of unpredictability can exceed its costs. But in my experience with competitive strategy in the real world, they aren’t common.
...
In business, the opposite of unpredictable isn’t predictable. The opposite of unpredictable is strategic.
...
becoming un­predictable required abandoning a major opportunity: the opportunity to lead.
...
I mean “lead” in the sense of shaping events, of taking initiative, of showing not-a-chicken commitment. You lead by influencing others, even, maybe especially, if they are not your friends. You may lead well or you may lead badly, but unpredictability does not lead at all.
...
Leadership lets you choose the game to play and shape how you play it. If you don’t, someone else will."

BTW, estratégia e táctica são coisas distintas e imprevisibilidade não é o mesmo que segredo.

Trechos retirados de "Why Being Unpredictable Is a Bad Strategy"

"It’s a human behavior one." (parte II)

Parte I.

E até que ponto fica claro, preto no branco, que comportamentos e porquê devem acontecer?

Uma estratégia ao ser executada traduz-se em:

Resultados que decorrem naturalmente de acções e de comportamentos.

Quem exibe esses comportamentos?

Quem actua além das máquinas e dos algoritmos?

Começamos por relacionar estratégia com processos e identificamos os processos críticos e os de contexto. Depois, identificamos as competências, comportamentos e resultados que as pessoas têm de ter, exibir ou gerar em cada um dos processos que contribuem para a execução da estratégia:

• Desenvolver indicadores para a perspectiva Recursos & Infra-estruturas (parte 2 de 4) (Abril de 2007)
• Desenvolver indicadores para a perspectiva Recursos & Infra-estruturas (parte (2+1/2) de 4) (Abril de 2007)
• A perspectiva de Recursos & Infra-estruturas (Agosto de 2008)
• Será isto original? (Março de 2009) 
• Acerca da cultura que sustenta uma estratégia (Outubro de 2015)
• BSC vs ISO 9001 (parte VI) (Janeiro de 2016)
• BSC vs ISO 9001 (parte VII) (Janeiro de 2016)

Formular uma estratégia. Perceber que processos são críticos para a sua execução. Perceber que funções em cada processo contribuem para a execução da estratégia e traduzir a estratégia nas actividades elementares e comportamentos evidenciados durante o processo. É preciso ser terra-a-terra e mostrar como se quer que a diferença se faça. Depois, as pessoas arranjarão a forma de chegar a Paris mas primeiro as pessoas têm de perceber que o objectivo é tomar Paris.

Curiosidade do dia

"Os juros da dívida a 10 anos ultrapassaram os 4%. O problema não está num facto como este, que até pode ser isolado e pouco duradouro. A questão está quando se olha para a tendência. E esta não se vê por um dia, uma semana ou mesmo um mês. É um facto que no último ano os juros que os investidores exigem para comprarem dívida pública portuguesa tem subido de forma regular e, aparentemente, sustentada. A subida é generalizada e uniforme na zona euro? Não. E esse é o segundo sinal preocupante para Portugal. O diferencial de juros entre a dívida portuguesa e as alemã e espanhola alargou-se nos últimos meses. Isto significa que mesmo quando uma parte das razões para a subida dos juros vem de fora, o impacto percebido pelos investidores em cada economia é diferenciado. Por exemplo, os efeitos da política económica que se adivinha venha a ser a de Donald Trump serão maiores e mais negativos em Portugal do que noutras economias. Porquê? Porque o país baixou o défice mas não a dívida, porque a economia não sai da anemia e até está a crescer menos do que em 2015, porque o investimento não arranca, porque há muitas políticas que são olhadas com desconfiança e recuos incompreensíveis em algumas medidas. Isto apesar do défice mais baixo da democracia – mas que não deixa de ser um défice e, por isso, gerador de mais dívida
...
Porque 2010 está demasiado vivo na nossa memória, sabemos que o problema começa quando nos tornamos no primeiro sítio de onde os credores querem sair quando o circo começa a arder. É isso que faz de nós o elo mais fraco. E é contra isso que, nesta fase, já pouco podemos fazer. O que será, será."

Trechos retirados de "Era uma vez um país sem custo para os contribuintes…"

Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte XI)

 Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII e parte VIII, parte IXe parte X.

Ontem, numa caminhada matinal li:

"For most of the industrial era the only option for having goods and services was to own them. If we wanted to have anything, we had to buy it. This was also the way industrial society was set up. It moved society away from the traditional ideas of shared resources into consumption silo mode. The industrial era made many things affordable for the first time. The rational choice was to purchase and own, so we accumulated goods and stored them at home for when they were needed. Being able to have everything we needed, and places to store it all (fridges, cupboards, spare rooms and garages), reduced a lot of the friction that existed before industrial communities came into being and resources were shared.
...
Much of the friction of sharing is now coming back out of the commercial system. While vehicles gave us access to vast geography on demand, the internet is giving us access to vast information, entertainment and even physical goods on demand. Many of the things we had no choice but to buy if we wanted access to them are changing the way they come to market. Increasingly, we have an option to buy or to simply access an asset on demand. We are choosing the latter."

Depois, à hora do almoço encontrei "The Original Sharing Economy" e fiquei a pensar no potencial do modelo de negócio da Sharing Depot.

Agora pensem no impacte disto no emprego, na impostagem e no PIB.

Trechos iniciais retirados de "The Great Fragmentation"

Que acham da capacidade dos humanos?

"It is rousing and worrisome (depending on whether you are playing offense or defense) to recognize that these persuasive outcomes can flow from attention- shifting techniques so slight as to go unrecognized as agents of change.
...
[Moi ici: A estória que se segue é deliciosa] Suppose you’ve started an online furniture store that specializes in various types of sofas. Some are attractive to customers because of their comfort and others because of their price. Is there anything you can think to do that would incline visitors to your website to focus on the feature of comfort and, consequently, to prefer to make a sofa purchase that prioritized it over cost?
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In an article largely overlooked since it was published in 2002, they described how they were able to draw website visitors’ attention to the goal of comfort merely by placing fluffy clouds on the background wallpaper of the site’s landing page. That maneuver led those visitors to assign elevated levels of importance to comfort when asked what they were looking for in a sofa. Those same visitors also became more likely to search the site for information about the comfort features of the sofas in stock and, most notably, to choose a more comfortable (and more costly) sofa as their preferred purchase.
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To make sure their results were due to the landing page wallpaper and not to some general human preference for comfort, Mandel and Johnson reversed their procedure for other visitors, who saw wallpaper that pulled their attention to the goal of economy by depicting pennies instead of clouds. These visitors assigned greater levels of importance to price, searched the site primarily for cost information, and preferred an inexpensive sofa. Remarkably, despite having their importance ratings, search behavior, and buying preferences all altered pre-suasively by the landing page wallpaper, when questioned afterward, most participants refused to believe that the depicted clouds or pennies had affected them in any way."

Que acham disto?

Que acham da capacidade dos humanos?

Entretanto, ontem à noite ao preparar uma sessão de trabalho numa empresa visitei o seu sítio na internet e encontrei como missão:

"É nossa missão oferecer serviços, a um preço justo e ..."

O primeiro tópico a que chamam a atenção é ... o preço! No entanto, nos testemunhos sobre o que fazem e para quem aparecem nomes ligados ao segmento do luxo.

Trechos retirados de "Pre-suasion"

A vantagem da ignorância

Em "This is The Value of Ignorance to Your Creative Process" encontro algo que logo relaciono com aquilo a que chamo "fuçar":

"Creativity is a surprising process. Left unchecked, too much application of prior knowledge can stifle innovation and hinder creative work. "Not knowing" can be your most important asset if you can use it to your advantage. Without placing importance on not knowing, you run the risk of damaging the integrity of your creative work with your own bias.
...
Real creativity is a revision in progress, always. It proceeds in fits and starts of ignorance. Creative professionals cannot work without knowledge, skills, and experience. It's the basic requirement to thrive in any field. But the only way you can surprise yourself and deliver your most amazing work is to embrace creative ignorance.
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Start every creative process with fresh eyes and set aside your assumptions.
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"The only way to be creative over time -- to not be undone by our expertise -- is to experiment with ignorance, to stare at things we don't fully understand."
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By all means envision and have a plan of action, but adapt and adopt new ideas as you progress.
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'All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence, and success is sure.' Ignorance is not a barrier to action."

Quando falo da tríade, falo de supostos conhecedores, gurus, sábios que tudo sabem e prevêem que vem aí o diabo e que as PME portuguesas não têm futuro sem o escudo. Afinal não passam de Muggles.
Porque estão presos a modelos concebidos para explicar o passado não conseguem perceber que quando o mundo muda esses modelos ficam obsoletos e é preciso testar novas abordagens.

Quando refiro o fuçar:

• A velha academia não percebe nem tem guião (Abril de 2011)
• É a vida! (Julho de 2012)
• Fuçar, uma espécie de humildade (Outubro de 2014)  
• "We find our way by getting lost." (parte II) (Julho de 2016)
• Cuidado com as fantasias do Excel (Agosto de 2016)
• Fuçar e a quebra dos tabus (Outubro de 2016)

BTW, recuar a Abril de ... 2009 e a "Parte VII – Zapatero e os outros."

"It’s a human behavior one." (parte I)

"Which is precisely what he should be worrying about. However hard it is to devise a smart strategy, it’s ten times harder to get people to execute on that strategy. And a poorly executed strategy, no matter how clever, is worthless.
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In other words, your organization’s biggest strategic challenge isn’t strategic thinking — it’s strategic acting.
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while strategy development and communication are about knowing something, strategy execution is about doing something. And the gap between what you know and what you do is often huge. Add in the necessity of having everyone acting in alignment with each other, and it gets even huger.
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The reason strategy execution is often glossed over by even the most astute strategy consultants is because primarily it’s not a strategy challenge. It’s a human behavior one."

E até que ponto fica claro, preto no branco, que comportamentos e porquê devem acontecer?

Onde isto nos vai levar.

Trechos retirados de "Execution Is a People Problem, Not a Strategy Problem"


Continua.

Curiosidade do dia

2009 é o novo 2016. Esta manhã em Estarreja, caixas multibanco do Novo Banco e da CGD sem dinheiro, pelas 12h

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) December 23, 2016

Fragilistas, nunca enganam: "Juros portugueses atingem máximos de quase um ano acima de 4%"

A atitude é tudo

Recordando "Atitude e David":

"Time for a new advantage. It might be your network, the connections that trust you. And it might be your expertise. But most of all, I'm betting it's your attitude."

Recordando Weick e o poder de um mapa, ainda que errado, em que acreditamos, "Estratégia, mapas errados e self-fulfilling prophecies".

Recordando Frankl e o espaço entre o estímulo e a resposta.

“Life is never made unbearable by circumstances, but only by lack of meaning and purpose.”

Encontro este texto de Seth Godin, "The choice":

"Attitude is the most important choice any of us will make. We made it yesterday and we get another choice to make it today. And then again tomorrow.
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The choice to participate.
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To be optimistic.
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To intentionally bring out the best in other people.
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We make the choice to inquire, to be curious, to challenge the status quo.
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To give people the benefit of the doubt.
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To find hope instead of fear in the face of uncertainty.
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Of course these are attitudes. What else could they be?
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And of course, they are a choice. No one does these things to us. We choose them and do the work (and find the benefits) that come with them."

O truque da atenção

"Pre-suasion" é uma leitura viciante:

"The Importance of Attention . . . Is Importance...
WHAT’S SALIENT IS IMPORTANT
...
anything that draws focused attention to itself can lead observers to overestimate its importance.
...
“Nothing in life is as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it.”
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a communicator who gets an audience to focus on a key element of a message pre-loads it with importance. [Moi ici: Quase que jurava que as redes sociais minam esta possibilidade daí que os agenda-setters não gostem] This form of pre-suasion accounts for what many see as the principle role (labeled agenda setting) that the news media play in influencing public opinion. The central tenet of agenda-setting theory is that the media rarely produce change directly, by presenting compelling evidence that  sweeps an audience to new positions; they are much more likely to persuade indirectly, by giving selected issues and facts better coverage than other issues and facts. [Moi ici: Lembrei-me do nome Alberto Gonçalves. Por que será?] It’s this coverage that leads audience members—by virtue of the greater attention they devote to certain topics—to decide that these are the most important to be taken into consideration when adopting a position.
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This sensible system of focusing our limited attentional resources on what does indeed possess special import has an imperfection, though: we can be brought to the mistaken belief that something is important merely because we have been led by some irrelevant factor to give it our narrowed attention. All too often, people believe that if they have paid attention to an idea or event or group, it must be important enough to warrant the consideration.
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Thus, the persuader who artfully draws outsize attention to the most favorable feature of an offer becomes a successful pre-suader."

Em linha com o aviso que faço aos líderes das PME quando acreditam que o que os media relatam acerca das empresas grandes é aplicável e desejável nas suas empresas.

Um exemplo que muita gente podia copiar.

Um exemplo que muita gente podia copiar. Ainda na Terça-feira ao almoço conversei com um apaixonado por carros antigos. Podia ser um bird-watcher, um motoqueiro, um maker, o meu amigo dos aquários, ...

"After I made my BMX Pinterest board, I sent a tweet out saying how excited I was about my new project to build the ultimate retro BMX powered by the connections the internet makes possible. I already had a few posts of bikes for sale on eBay and links to old-school BMX forums. The tweet had a link pointing to the Pinterest board. After I got back from lunch I checked my Twitter feed to find someone had sent me a reply tweet about the BMX project. It was from a local BMX store. They informed me they had an old-school BMX section in their store for big kids like me. The way they did it was really cool. The tweet said, ‘Cool project Steve. Here’s a link to the best forum for Old School BMX … If you wanna reminisce, pop in some day’.[Moi ici: Reparem, não vendem, não empurram, convidam, partilham]
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Needless to say, I went in the very next day to get some advice on the project, on where to get parts (it’s a bit like car restoration) and on how to get the genuine stuff. They earned my business in 140 characters.
This was such a clever play on so many levels. There are a lot of subtle marketing lessons to be learned from this tweet. I’ll spell them out clearly.

• Make it personal. They addressed me as Steve. You’d be surprised how few people do that when they find you online, even though your name is a mere click away.

• Offer resources first. They provided me with something of value to help me: the link to the forums. They didn’t try selling to me on the first connection.

• Focus on an ecosystem. They didn’t stress about where I went to solve my problem. They chose instead to embrace the fact that I was entering their market space. In some ways they recommended a competitor (the online forum that happens to sell old BMX parts). 

• Use real language and culture. They spoke the natural language of the group. It wasn’t corporate brochure-ware PR speak. It was human and real.

• Find tools of connection. I asked the owner how he found me. I mean, unless I was in his stream how would he know about my project? He said he does a social-media search every day with only two simple data parameters: the hashtag for #BMX and the geography of Melbourne. Very clever stuff. 

• Focus on one customer at a time. They focused on direct connection, one new fan at a time. They didn’t try to build an audience. They helped a person, which is a very different approach. It seems old-school BMXers are a little bit smarter than old-school marketers. What a great way to build a community; one that I’m now a part of.

While everyone gets enamoured with ‘big data’, there’s probably a lot more we can do with ‘little data’."

Trecho retirado de "The Great Fragmentation"

ISO 9001: riscos e oportunidades

Alguma evolução no meu pensamento sobre este tema.

A ISO define risco como o efeito da incerteza num resultado esperado.

Esse efeito pode ser negativo (risco) ou positivo (oportunidade)

Ontem de manhã estive numa PME industrial que tem como um dos seus indicadores o valor médio dos serviços prestados em euros.

Vamos supor que essa empresa em 2016 teve um valor médio de 103,1 euros por serviço. Agora, suponhamos que a gestão de topo estabeleceu uma meta para 2017 de 111,5 euros em média por serviço.

Uma coisa é a meta, o desejo. Outra coisa será o valor real que será atingido no conjunto do ano.

A verdade é que entre Janeiro e Dezembro de 2017 muita coisa pode acontecer, no interior e no exterior da empresa. Por isso, existe alguma incerteza quanto ao resultado que realmente vai ser atingido no final do ano:

Na verdade, em teoria, podemos equacionar duas variações em relação à meta:

Em teoria podemos equacionar um cenário em que o valor médio ultrapassa a meta e um outro cenário em que o valor médio fica aquém da meta.

A incerteza pode afectar um resultado esperado:

Se essa afectação for positiva então estamos perante uma oportunidade, algo que queremos que aconteça, algo positivo que queremos agarrar.

Se essa afectação for negativa então estamos perante um risco, algo que queremos que não aconteça, algo negativo que queremos evitar.

Será que as duas alternativas têm igual probabilidade de ocorrência? Aí entra o texto da cláusula 6.1.1 da ISO 9001:2015:

"Ao planear o sistema de gestão da qualidade, a organização deve considerar as questões referidas em 4.1 (Compreender a organização e o seu contexto) e os requisitos mencionados em 4.2 (Compreender as necessidades e expectativas das partes interessadas) e determinar os riscos e as oportunidades que devem ser tratados"

Por exemplo, relativamente a 4.1 podemos ter:

Por causa de factores internos como:

• (+) Lançar novo produto - o preço médio pode aumentar
• (-) Não sabemos defender os preços - o preço médio pode baixar

Por causa de factores externos como:

• (+) Procura está a crescer - o preço médio pode aumentar
• (-) Taxas de juro podem subir ou Preço das matérias-primas pode disparar - o preço médio pode baixar

Quais são os factores que acreditamos serem mais prováveis?

O governo fragilista por um lado, o aumento da cotação do dólar e o aumento da inflação alemã vão forçar uma subida das taxas de juro. Como os nossos clientes são maioritariamente do mercado interno (4.2) é muito mais provável que haja uma forte pressão para baixar o preço médio dos serviços restados. Ou seja, identificamos um risco.

Comentários?

Curiosidade do dia

O amigo Aranha mandou-me uma provocação via Messenger:

Empreendedorismo é uma coisa positiva.

Emigrar é ser empreendedor.

Portanto, segundo a propriedade distributiva: Emigrar é uma coisas positiva!

Notável!

Quantas vestes não se rasgariam se fosse PPC a dizer isto!

Qualquer dia até a Todos Socialistas Felizes faz um fórum dedicado aos piegas que não querem sair da sua zona de conforto e estão contra o aumento dos impostos.


Oh, wait!

Estratégia em todo lado - não é winner-take-all (parte III)

A leitura deste artigo "Instead of Optimizing Processes, Reimagine Them as Platforms" chamou-me a atenção para uma citação de “Products to Platforms: Making the Leap“: 

“In a product business model, firms create value by developing differentiated products for specific customer needs, and they capture value by charging money for those items. In a platform business model, firms create value primarily by connecting users and third parties, and they capture value by charging fees for access to the platform. Platform models bring a shift in emphasis—from meeting specific customer needs to encouraging mass-market adoption in order to maximize the number of interactions, or from product-related sources of competitive advantage (such as product differentiation) to network-related sources of competitive advantage (the network effects of connecting many users and third parties).”

Creio que esta tendência não passe de um sintoma da juventude dos modelos de negócio baseados em plataformas. Recordar:

• Estratégia em todo lado - não é winner-take-all
• Estratégia em todo lado - não é winner-take-all (parte II)

Ao criar uma estratégia

"The Four Fundamental Questions You Must Answer When Creating a Strategy
...
What Propels Us Forward? [Moi ici: São produtos e serviços? São clientes e mercados? São capacidades? São tecnologias? São canais de distribuição? São matérias-primas?]
...
What Do We Sell?
...
Who Are Our Customers? [Moi ici: Um tema clássico neste blogue]
When determining whom you’ll sell to, you are once again faced with a choice: Which customer groups (and geographies) do we place more emphasis on in the future, and which deserve less of our attention? The first step in answering this question is acquiring a clear understanding of your current group of customers  reviewing standard metrics such as Net promoter score, profitability customer group, retention, and market share. It’s also vital to experience from your customers’ point of view in order to glean insights not visible within the walls of your corporate headquarters.
...
How Do We Sell?
This is perhaps the most crucial of the four questions, as it determines value proposition. In other words, how do you add value for customers, or to put it even simpler: Why would anyone buy from you? Despite the importance of the question, the choices awaiting you are limited and basic: You can either attempt to offer the lowest total cost of ownership to your customers or you can put forth a differentiated product or service.
.
Companies that compete on lowest total cost invest deeply in capabilities, processes, and assets that allow them to standardize their operations, and create a repeatable formula that results in low prices for the consumer. Think of Wal-Mart in the retail world or McDonald’s in the fast-food industry."

Com uma PME prefiro pensar em:

• Qual a nossa identidade?
• A quem servimos bem com vantagem para ambas as partes?
• Qual a melhor forma de chegar a quem servimos? 

Trechos retirados de "Objectives and Key Results - Driving Focus, Alignment, and Engagement with OKRs" de Paul Niven e Bem Lamorte

Interação, relação e Mongo

Mais uma opinião em sintonia com o que escrevemos e defendemos aqui ao longo dos anos acerca de Mongo e da tendência para empresas mais pequenas, mais ágeis e mais apaixonadas:

"over the next 25 years, will likely mean that more and more large organizations, business models, and even governmental functions will be supplanted, evaded, or made irrelevant by self-organizing groups of individuals, connected ever more seamlessly by robust computer and telecommunications technologies.
...
no matter what your line of work is, and no matter how commanding a position your industry has today, every business still needs to be prepared for the consumer-led disruption of radical decentralization.
...
the best way to prepare for this disruption or nearly any other kind of technological asteroid strike, is to follow one or all of these three strategies:
.
Concentrate on earning the trust of your customers now, by constantly acting in their interests. When the asteroid hits, you need your customers to be on your side, wishing you well;
Deepen the context of your relationships with customers by tailoring each customer’s service to that customer’s individually different needs and preferences; and
Create a more frictionless customer experience by facilitating the disruption, rather than simply trying to resist it. You want to be Uber, the company, coordinating the interactions, and not just the highest-volume Uber driver in the new network."

 Recordar o recente "the relationship is the holy grail" e a ênfase que aqui damos à interacção.

Trechos retirados de "Radical Decentralization: Consumers Are the Ultimate Disruptors"

Tendências que estão a mudar o mundo da moda

Em "No More Athleisure, Brick And Mortar, Made in China? How Fashion Will Change In 2017" algumas notas sobre as tendências que estão a mudar o mundo da moda. Saliento a decadência das marcas do passado e a ascensão de novas marcas nascidas no online.

"These companies are offering something different from the flashy designers of yesterday: the insight into their supply chain and sometimes even a breakdown of their sales margins, providing the customer with a better understanding of the quality they're getting for their money.
.
Over the next year, we'll see how these online brands continue to transform the fashion landscape. We'll see big shifts in brick and mortar stores, fashion supply chains, the athleisure trend, and the idea of value.
...
1. Brick And Mortar Makes A Comeback [Moi ici: Atenção! Estas lojas físicas não são as tradicionais lojas físicas que tentam subornar os clientes com descontos]
...
"Brands are thinking about what the internet cannot give you,"
...
the one thing the internet does not provide is human contact. She predicts that in 2017, customers will increasingly visit stores to get curated experiences from shop representatives. For brands to meet this demand, they need to have well-trained staff who understand products inside and out and can offer personalized advice.
.
We will also see a rise in experiential retail, ... To encourage consumers to spend time in their stores browsing their products, brands will get more creative, adding amenities like bars, coffee shops, and yoga classes. In other words, stores will become more like entertainment spots for people who share similar lifestyles and interests to spend time together. "There will be an emphasis on physical brand experiences that will enable consumers to engage with not just product, but brand ethos and community," she says. "The main objective of this kind of blending will be brand awareness, but the scope and reach will be much more than what’s been traditional. These experiences will be leveraging what is happening with social and taking it offline."
...
3. Value Matters More Than LabelsCustomers are smart and want to know what they are paying for.
...
[Moi ici: E relacionado com o reshoring, com a flexibilidade, rapidez e pequenas séries] Gallardo believes that over the next year, companies that build their business model on making large wholesale margins will struggle to compete with this new flock of brands. Consumers are also losing interest in big discounts since they often come paired with lower-quality products. Gallardo says that brands struggling to survive in this shifting landscape—including J.Crew and the Gap Brands—will need to rethink their entire supply chain so they are making high-quality products with the best materials, then selling them at the best possible prices. This means not only being "direct-to-consumer" but also "direct-to-supplier.
...
4. Made In AmericaMore production is returning home.
...
The majority of U.S. fashion brands have moved production to Asia, where labor costs are lower. But there's been a shift in recent years as a wave of startups have chosen to make products in U.S. factories because it allows them to better monitor quality and take advantage of the most recent manufacturing technology.
...
More and more brands are focusing on smaller, more timeless product lines," he says. "We're not trying to make the cheapest white T-shirt, but the most well-constructed, best-fitting, softest T-shirt, at the absolute best price.""

Curiosidade do dia

E é a isto que estamos condenados:

"Saúdam-se as despesas, as reposições, as reversões, e ai de quem venha falar de endividamento, uma pessoa do passado que não sabe que austeridade e dívida são assuntos que não entusiasmam. Pelo contrário, o melhor é entrar no jogo e prometer mais ainda, fazendo dos restantes uns contabilistas que só querem saber de contas e não das pessoas."

Só teremos o que merecemos

Recordar o que é um fragilista

Trecho retirado de "Temos o debate político que merecemos"

"Your higher price makes it easier to sell"

Recordo "Assim, partem já derrotados" antes de:

"You may believe that one of the primary challenges you have when selling is your higher price. Because you invariably get questions around your higher price, and because you are continually compared with your lower-priced competitors, it’s easy to conclude that your higher price makes selling more difficult.
.
This is categorically untrue. Your higher price makes it easier to sell, and a lower price makes it more difficult."

Recomendo vivamente a leitura de "If You Think It’s Hard to Sell with a Higher Price, Try Selling a Low Price" porque o texto é mesmo muito bom!

"It’s easier to sell with a higher price. First, the price itself is an indication of quality. It’s a shortcut that indicates you are investing more in generating better outcomes, whether that be a better product, a better service, or a better solution.[Moi ici: Recordar "Uma das minhas missões" e as "respostas que me satisfariam"]
.
A higher price also means that you are doing something different that makes a difference worth paying for. That difference, that ability to solve your perspective client’s challenge and give them what they really want or need is what is worth paying more to obtain. When you sell at a higher price, you are compared to competitors at all price points, which allows your prospective client to look for differentiation worth paying for.
.
At a higher price, you have something to sell. At a lower price, the only thing you have to sell is a lower price. If delivering greater value at a lower price was easier, more sales organizations would choose that strategy."

"If You Think It’s Hard to Sell with a Higher Price, Try Selling a Low Price"

Uma novela sobre Mongo (parte X)

 Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII e parte VIII e parte IX.

O trecho que se segue é muito interessante, ilustra bem o que é a explosão de tribos, o aumento da diversidade e a vantagem das empresas com gente apaixonada:

"In a type of paradox, cities are becoming more alike and more different at the same time. Let me explain.
...
Cities are experiencing a move to niche, yet global, trends - interest by interest, social group by social group - into a massive subset of connected communities that exists in most geographies. People are self-organising themselves into groups around passions. [Moi ici: Há tantos anos a falar aqui da vantagem de ter gente com paixão... como não recordar "A paixão nas empresas é inversamente proporcional ao seu tamanho"] They can do this now because they can connect easily and find each other, but more importantly because the culture vultures (mass-market tastemakers) have finally left the building. It’s a fragmentation into subcultures that are replicated on a global scale, facilitated by the network connections people have.
...
People are self-organising themselves into groups around passions.
.
There are now more niches in every city maintained by a group itself, not by mass marketers looking for the next pop-culture hit. In fact, niches can now build themselves sustainable micro-economies around their interest. The community itself becomes the designer, producer, promoter and end user. They can do this because the barriers to entry are inconsequential.
...
But at the same time each city has never been more fragmented and differentiated within its walls. Figure 6.1 depicts this fragmentation of cities."

Agora imaginem as empresas grandes, viciadas na produção em massa a tentar interagir com com estas tribos bots e algoritmos, tomando-as por plankton ... tudo para dar errado.

E volto ao:

-Tu não és meu irmão de sangue!

As PME deviam estar a pensar em como fazer batota com esta maré:

"We must redefine strategy not as a means of control, but as a means of understanding control."

A importância do essencial

Ao longo dos anos abordo o tema do retorno da atenção e da estreiteza da nossa largura de banda, se dedicamos a nossa atenção a umas coisas não a podemos dedicar a outras ao mesmo tempo. Recordar O retorno da atenção (Agosto de 2009).

Agora em Pre-suasion encontro:

"In the English language, we are said to “pay” attention, which plainly implies that the process extracts a cost. Research on cognitive functioning shows us the form of the fee: when attention is paid to something, the price is attention lost to something else. Indeed, because the human mind appears able to hold only one thing in conscious awareness at a time, the toll is a momentary loss of focused attention to everything else. Have you ever noticed how difficult it is to experience - genuinely experience - two things at once?
...
my car’s CD player is structured to work like my brain, allowing me but a single track of music at a time. That’s for good reason, as it would be folly to play more than one simultaneously. I’d just hear noise. So it is with human cognition. Even though there are always multiple “tracks” of information available, we consciously select only the one we want to register at that moment. Any other arrangement would leave us overloaded and unable to react to distinct aspects of  the mongrelized input."

Recordar a contagem de passes e o gorila.

Por isto, também por isto, é importante esclarecer o que não é prioritário, o que não é estratégico, para que possamos dedicar mais tempo ao essencial.

Não perca tempo

Já aqui escrevi, mais do que uma vez, que os líderes de uma associação sectorial ou empresarial devem idealmente vir da vanguarda do pensamento estratégico.

Colocar e manter mentes demasiado agarradas ao passado, demasiado confiantes no direito adquirido ao queijo  garantido, em posições de chefia tem tendência a resultar em erro.

Considerando o tema de Pre-suasion, por exemplo aqui e aqui:

"frequently the factor most likely to determine a person’s choice in a situation is not the one that counsels most wisely there; it is one that has been elevated in attention (and, thereby, in privilege) at the time of the decision"

Se quem ocupa uma posição de liderança vê a mudança como uma ameaça, vê um futuro com mais nuvens negras do que oportunidades, então, o mais provável é que todo o sector assuma esse posicionamento e se refugie no papel de vítima, de coitadinho que tem de depender de outros para sobreviver.

Esses "líderes" presos ao passado, quando o mundo muda ficam perdidos e como que esperam ser socorridos. Líderes (sem aspas) virados para o futuro acham-se a si mesmos, encontram um novo lar nesse novo futuro.

Numa pesquisa que fiz aqui no blogue fui parar por acaso, não há acasos todas as coincidências são significativas, a um postal de Julho de 2006 intitulado "O futuro para o têxtil português" onde se podia ler:

""In a fast-paced environment where time-to-market and short-cycle production are powerful levers of competitive advantage, proximity has taken on much greater significance in all but "fashion" items, where once-a-season orders still prevail.
...
The keys to success in an age of product proliferation, the authors found, are no longer economies of scale and cheap labor but an up-to-the-minute knowledge of what sells and what doesn't, flexible manufacturing capabilities that can respond appropriately to demand, lean rather than fat and costly inventories, and the rapid replenishment of stock."

Agora pensem nos anos que o sector têxtil perdeu em Portugal porque em vez de olhar para o futuro pelo lado das oportunidades, em vez de divulgar esse futuro possível, em vez de comunicar os exemplos de sucesso, gastou demasiado tempo a defender o passado, a esperar que tudo voltasse à "normalidade".

Este blogue ganhou vida própria entretanto mas quando começou a ser escrito com regularidade tinha como objectivo ser um prolongamento da minha memória. E ter memória ás vezes é um castigo dos deuses:

• Qual é o recurso mais escasso? (Outubro de 2010)
• Arrepiante (Outubro de 2010)
• Algo me diz que Nuno Melo apanhou a maré quando ela já está a mudar (Janeiro de 2011)
• O tempo que se perdeu (Maio de 2013)

Agora imagine que a sua empresa têxtil tinha recorrido aos serviços deste consultor anónimo da província e que tinha feito um gerador de cenários e tinha formulado uma estratégia de trajectória para vir encontrar-se com um futuro mais risonho à custa da batota, comandando em vez de ser comandada, apostando na proximidade, na rapidez, na flexibilidade muito antes dos outros.

Se tiver tempo leia mesmo este postal de ontem "Isto está tudo ligado (parte II)". Consegue sentir como eu o arrepio de descobrir o quão facilmente podemos ser enganados por nós próprios?

E mais uma vez aquela descoberta: sentado num banco no interior do Amoreiras, ao princípio de uma noite de 1998, enquanto aguardava pela minha colega Dores para jantarmos, lia Stephen Covey em “The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People”:

"Não é o que acontece que conta, é o que nós decidimos fazer com o que nos acontece."

E aquela outra mais recente mas igualmente bela proporcionada por Gonzales:

"É como se a nossa economia fosse um conjunto de pessoas que viajava de avião. O avião despenhou-se e, agora, as pessoas encontram-se numa floresta tropical cheia de perigos e riscos. Há uns que querem aventurar-se e procurar a salvação atravessando a floresta, há outros que querem permanecer junto ao avião esperando que ele volte novamente a levantar vôo, há outros que gritam por ajuda e esperam um milagre. O que aprendi com Gonzales, e chocou com o que ouvi de Lobo Xavier, é que os que decidem aventurar-se e procurar a salvação, enfrentando o desconhecido, ao fazerem essa viagem, acabam por se transformarem a eles próprios e o mais interessante é que quando chegam à "civilização", ou quando são encontrados, já não estão perdidos, já se encontraram, já se adaptaram a uma nova realidade." 

Não perca tempo com líderes que fazem do seu sector um coitadinho, procure gente com o locus de controlo no interior.

BTW, se precisar de apoio estamos por aqui.

Curiosidade do dia

Ás vezes aparecem pequenas estrelas brilhantes no meio da noite da burocracia, da noite da regulação, da noite do cronyism, nem acreditamos que estamos em Portugal.

Eis um desses exemplos bons "Docapesca diz que venda direta de pescado antes de entrar em lota é legal".

E sobre isto:

"A empresa reconheceu que “a insatisfação manifestada pelos compradores resulta do facto de os armadores que têm contratos homologados estarem a fazer o escoamento do seu pescado, maioritariamente, através desses contratos, dando origem à escassez de algumas espécies de pescado fresco em leilão”."

Há uma solução fácil. paguem mais aos armadores.

O mundo não é plano

"Thomas Friedman is renowned for claiming that the world is flat, in not one but two best-selling, highly lauded, and widely quoted books— The World is Flat (2005) and Hot, Flat, and Crowded (2008).  Friedman posits that information technology is revolutionary in that all people and countries bear an increasing resemblance; he suggests that borders between countries are becoming increasingly irrelevant. It follows that companies that fail to globalize and capitalize on this convergence trend will be left behind.
.
While advances in information technology are indeed increasing at a rapid rate, and those advances have certainly facilitated the coordination, connectedness, and efficiency of communications across borders, it does not follow that all peoples and countries will converge so as to become nearly indistinct. Despite what business pundits who exhort globalization would have us believe, important differences between countries remain, and information technology simply does not fully bridge the political, economic, and cultural divides between countries.
.
Pankaj Ghemawat and Richard Florida, for example, have demonstrated that the world is not as flat as Friedman purports. There is still substantial difference in the world. People are not the same the world over. Countries vary on a host of dimensions, and the ways in which they differ have important implications for how companies ought to globalize and how globalizing businesses will perform. These differences make it incredibly challenging to manage far-flung global corporations.
.
And therein lies the managerial challenge. It seems that managers of global and globalizing companies have taken Friedman’s words to heart, and as a result they are either unsure or unaware of how differences between countries will impact their business. They therefore make dangerous assumptions, underestimating the extent to which such differences are likely to negatively influence the bottom (or top) line, only to learn through a series of costly and painful lessons that the challenges of globalization are real and complex."

Trechos retirados de "Global Vision: How Companies Can Overcome the Pitfalls of Globalization"

Isto está tudo ligado (parte II)

Parte I.

Impressionante o potencial de manipulação em que caímos facilmente:

"Consider the results of an experiment performed by communication scientists San Bolkan and Peter Andersen, who approached people and made a request for assistance with a survey. We have all experienced something similar when a clipboard-carrying researcher stops us in a shopping mall or supermarket and asks for a few minutes of our time. As is the case for the typical shopping mall requester, these scientists’ success was dismal: only 29 percent of those asked to participate consented. But Bolkan and Andersen thought they could boost compliance without resorting to any of the costly payments that marketers often feel forced to employ. They stopped a second sample of individuals and began the interaction with a pre-suasive opener: “Do you consider yourself a helpful person?” Following brief reflection, nearly everyone answered yes. In that privileged moment—after subjects had confirmed privately and affirmed publicly their helpful natures—the researchers pounced, requesting help with their survey. Now 77.3 percent volunteered.
...
frequently the factor most likely to determine a person’s choice in a situation is not the one that counsels most wisely there; it is one that has been elevated in attention (and, thereby, in privilege) at the time of the decision.
...
In a companion study, the two scientists found that it was similarly possible to increase willingness to try an unfamiliar consumer product by beginning with a comparable but differently customized pre-suasive opener—this time asking people if they considered themselves adventurous. The consumer product was a new soft drink, and individuals had to agree to supply an email address so they could be sent instructions on how to get a free sample. Half were stopped and asked if they wanted to provide their addresses for this purpose. Most were reluctant—only 33 percent volunteered their contact information. The other subjects were asked initially, “Do you consider yourself to be somebody who is adventurous and likes to try new things?” Almost all said yes—following which, 75.7 percent gave their email addresses.
.
Two features of these findings strike me as remarkable. First, of the subjects who were asked if they counted themselves adventurous, 97 percent (seventy out of seventy-two) responded affirmatively. The idea that nearly everybody qualifies as an adventurous type is ludicrous. Yet when asked the single-chute question of whether they fit this category, people nominate themselves almost invariably. Such is the power of positive test strategy and the blinkered perspective it creates. The evidence shows that this process can significantly increase the percentage of individuals who brand themselves as adventurous or helpful or even unhappy. Moreover, the narrowed perspective, though temporary, is anything but inconsequential. For a persuasively privileged moment, it renders these individuals highly vulnerable to aligned requests—as the data of research scientists and the practices of cult recruiters attest.
.
The other noteworthy feature of the soft-drink experiment is not that a simple question could shunt so many people into a particular choice but that it could shunt so many of them into a potentially dangerous choice."

Dou por mim a recordar os discursos de Brutus primeiro e Marco António depois e a volubilidade da multidão, na peça de Shakespeare sobre Júlio César.

Trecho retirado de "Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade"

O futuro da estratégia

"Traditional strategy thinking is about making long-term commitments that will result in competitive advantage. The problem is we can’t predict the future very well, competitive advantage is rare and temporary, and companies are unable to keep up with the pace of adaptation in their markets.
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Complex adaptive systems teach us that the only norm is perpetual novelty. Traditional strategic planning was predicated on being able to somewhat successfully plot the future. We should be planning for multiple versions of the future, some that will actually co-exist at the same time.[Moi ici: Gosto desta ideia de múltiplas versões do futuro que co-existirão durante algum tempo]
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While the last twenty years have been marked by leaders in pursuit of the elimination of variance, [Moi ici: Foi aqui que eu comecei. Daí o nome Redsigma, daí a aposta na reengenharia na década de 90 do século passado, daí a abordagem por processos, daí o sucesso dos japoneses, daí o paradigma que os construtores automóveis criaram baseado na eliminação da variância] the next 20 years will be marked by leaders who create variance while maintaining a sense of stability. [Moi ici: Daí o perigo da cristalização. Deixem-me corrigir o autor. O futuro não passa pela criação de mais variância ou mais variabilidade, o futuro passa pela criação de mais variedade. Variância e variedade são coisas diferentes] Tomorrow’s most effective leaders will embrace this new, chaotic world. Planning will be replaced by intelligent reaction. They will proactively anticipate where the next disruption may come from and prepare for multiple scenarios. Instead of relying on proven static methods and processes, leaders will focus on building a learning capability, being comfortable with ambiguity, continually working within a changing landscape and anticipating and reacting to it with agility.[Moi ici: Conseguem imaginar como isto vai ser difícil para quem conta com os direitos adquiridos assegurados por intervenção divina?]
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We must redefine strategy not as a means of control, but as a means of understanding control. All of this isn’t to say that organizations won’t have control, it’s control and chaos.[Moi ici: Profundo!!! Interessante!!! Faz-me pensar no que escrevi sobre a criação de cenários para as PME. Uma PME é uma casca de noz no oceano, não pode mandar nas correntes... mas pode procurar tirar partido delas e aproveitar a sua vantagem de rapidez, localização e flexibilidade potencial]

Trechos retirados de "Chaos Learning: The Key To Mastering Uncertainty"