Fugir da race-to-the-bottom

O amigo @walternatez chamou-me a atenção para este artigo muito interessante:

How millions of French shoppers are rejecting cut-price capitalism https://t.co/wl767AfCZQ cc @ccz1

— walter, lider impopular (@walternatez) January 28, 2020

Há uma frase acerca do leite que já citei aqui muitas vezes:

"Milk is the ultimate low-involvement category, and it shows. Only 10% of the international sample (in Denmark, Germany and Spain the number is less than 5%) would expect the private label version to be of a lesser quality."

Cito-a, embora não a pratique. Há muitos anos que prefiro leite dos Açores.

Outra citação deste blogue é:

"When something is commoditized, an adjacent market becomes valuable"

Como fugir à comoditização? Apostando na diferenciação. Recordo este exemplo francês do leite integral que descrevi no ano passado em "Cambão versus estratégias baseadas nos clientes-alvo".

O artigo conta uma estória sobre como fugir da race-to-the-bottom:

"“Someone said, would I please have a look at milk,” Chabanne said. “So I did. It was an
absolute disaster. Dairy farmers were desperate, losing money on every litre; prices werebeing driven down mercilessly by the big retail groups.”
Chabanne did the arithmetic: a mere eight cents (6.8p) a litre was the difference between
a milk producer going bust (or worse: the suicide rate among French dairy farmers is30% higher than in the general population) and making a decent living. [Moi ici: A distribuição grande consegue este poder negocial porque há produtores muito grandes que conseguem ganhar dinheiro mesmo com preços muito baixos. Recordo o tamanho médio das produções leiteiras em Portugal e na Europa. No texto sobre Portugal escrevi "Explorações com menos de 10 cabeças podem ser rentáveis, não podem é seguir o mesmo modelo de negócio das que praticam a produção à escala industrial."]
...
“The average French consumer buys 50 litres of milk a year,” he said. “That meant that if consumers spent just €4 more on their milk per year, the producer might actually survive. I was convinced people would be prepared to do that.”
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His hunch has proved right. French consumers have bought 123m litres of milk labelled C’est qui le patron?! (Who’s the boss?) since its launch in November 2016, making it the fourth-biggest milk brand in France, outsold only by the most cut-price supermarket-own brands. [Moi ici: Como não recordar o tema da polarização dos mercados]
...
As with all of the cooperative’s products, neither was advertised on TV, promoted instore or pushed by a sales team. [Moi ici: Notável]
...
The basic assumption by supermarkets is that all consumers want competitively priced produce. The cheaper, the better. CQLP might have just rewritten that rule. [Moi ici: Como não recordar a ideia de que quem trabalha prefere trabalhar para uma empresa que dê sentido ao seu esforço. Como não recordar que na língua inglesa "patron", patrono, é também sinónimo de cliente regular. Aquele que patroniza]
...
In just three years, CQLP has won over nearly 11.5 million French consumers – about one in five adults. It has also boosted the incomes of more than 3,000 farmers and manufacturers, all of whom benefit from the pledge emblazoned in big, bold capitals on the brand’s packaging: “This product pays its producer a fair price.”
...
C’est qui le patron?! is “basically about consumers both taking control of what’s on our plates, and supporting producers”, he said. “There will always be people, for all kinds of reasons, for whom price matters most. But there are also more and more who feel maybe slightly guilty when they shop for food – and would like to do better.”"

Lembrei-me da estória dos pêssegos:

"A informação que o gerente me deu não devia estar escondida. A caixa de pêssegos devia ter uma foto do agricultor, um mapa da região onde foram produzidos e uma mensagem pessoal dele para os consumidores.
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Voltando ao segundo tweet, citado lá em cima, o século XX enterrou-nos no Normalistão, encarcerou-nos num modelo mental em que só o preço conta, e só nos ensinou uma forma de fazer preços: custo mais uma margem.
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No Estranhistão, os actores económicos vão aprender que o preço não tem nada a ver com o custo e tudo a ver com o valor percepcionado pelos clientes-alvo."

Aprender com o futuro (parte II)

 Parte I.

“Understanding process means to understand the making of our social relationships. If you want to change a stakeholder relationship from, say, dysfunctional to helpful, you cannot just order people to do it. You have to intervene further upstream in the process of social reality creation. You have to change the making of that relationship from one mode to another—for example, from reactive to co-creative.
...
Often in organizations you see CEOs and executives who fail to get that. They think they can create behavioral change just by making speeches and pushing tools onto the organization. Tools are important. But they are also overrated because they are so visible. But what is usually underrated is all the stuff that is invisible to the eye—for example, the less visible elements of a good holding space: intention, attention, and the subtle qualities of deep listening. Building a good container means to build a good holding space for a generative social process.
...
And just as the organic farmer depends completely on the living quality of the soil, social pioneers depend on the living quality of the social field. I define social field as the quality of relationships that give rise to patterns of thinking, conversing, and organizing, which in turn produce practical results.
And just as the farmer cannot “drive” a plant to grow faster, a leader or change maker in an organization or a community cannot force practical results. Instead, attention must be focused on improving the quality of the soil. What is the quality of the social soil? It is the quality of relationships among individuals, teams, and institutions that give rise to collective behavior and practical results.
...
For example: the quality of my listening co-shapes how the conversation unfolds. Or, speaking more generally, the quality of results in any social system is a function of the consciousness from which the people in that system operate. Boiled down to three words, the idea can be expressed as form follows consciousness.
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Listening is probably the most underrated leadership skill. At the heart of most examples of colossal leadership failures—which are in no short supply—leaders are often unable to connect with and make sense of the “VUCA” world around them; that is, a world defined by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity.
Listening, however, is not only important to leadership. If you are not a good listener, there is no way that you can develop real mastery in any discipline.
The most consistent feedback we have received from the hundreds of workshops, programs, and innovation journeys we have facilitated is this: Shifting your mode of listening is life-changing. Shifting how you listen, the way you pay attention, sounds like a really small change. But here is the thing: Changing how you listen means that you change how you experience relationships and the world. And if you change that, you change, well, EVERYTHING.”

Ao ler estes trechos vieram-me à memória as imagens que visualizei no Twitter há dias:

In case you missed it, video of the week: Dutch PM checks his bike into a big underground parking place. Attendant (of Kurdish origin) is amazed: “He has to check in and out like a normal person! This is how you run a country. I’m never leaving” pic.twitter.com/49aGdWH2Tx

— Ben Coates (@bencoates1) January 25, 2020

E reli " It is the quality of relationships among individuals, teams, and institutions that give rise to collective behavior and practical results."

Ainda ontem, durante um telefonema, recordei esta estória "Crédito fácil e barato", sem "intention, attention, and the subtle qualities of deep listening" como criar o terreno para uma mudança real?

Trechos retirados de "The Essentials of Theory U: Core Principles and Applications" de Otto Scharmer.

Demografia e segunda-mão

Ontem ouvi grande parte deste podcast, "Adam Minter on Secondhand" e fiquei admirado com os milhões de dólares envolvidos no negócio dos materiais em segunda-mão. À medida que a onda demográfica avança cada vez mais pessoas optam por mudar para casas mais pequenas e desfazer-se de muitos dos seus bens. Algo semelhante ao que li sobre o que acontece no Japão aos bens dos idosos falecidos. Recordo "Dying Alone in Japan: The Industry Devoted to What’s Left Behind" que referi em "Negócio de futuro".

Entretanto, antes tinha lido "By 2023, the secondhand clothes market will double to $51 billion. Here’s why".

Também recordo:

• Compras em segunda-mão (Março de 2019)
• Estratégia, Economia Circular, Novos Modelos de Negócio (Dezembro de 2019)

E:

• E a demografia? (Junho de 2019)
• Demografia e clientes-alvo (Janeiro de 2020)

Talvez nesta Europa, ainda mais envelhecida que os Estados Unidos, e para onde exportamos tanto do nosso calçado, este factor também seja relevante para se juntar à lista:

• Comoditização da posição baseada na flexibilidade e rapidez;
• Deterioração do actual modelo de negócio baseado nas feiras;
• Envelhecimento dos antigos clientes-alvo.

Aprender com o futuro (parte I)

Depois de ter visto os vídeos apresentados em "Generative Listening" fui em busca da bibliografia de Otto Scharmer e fixei-me em dois títulos:

• Theory U: Leading from the Future as It Emerges
• The Essentials of Theory U: Core Principles and Applications

O primeiro título tem tudo a ver com as conversas oxigenadoras... e também com o tema do calçado e do têxtil precisarem de uma nova abordagem, para ultrapassarem um modelo que parece que ficou fora do seu prazo de validade. Daí o "leading from the future as it emerges"... o futuro agir como a causa... o retorno ao bom velho Ortega y Gasset "O meu presente não existe senão graças ao meu futuro".

Entretanto, optei pela leitura do "The Essentials of Theory U: Core Principles and Applications" porque aparece como um resumo das ideias do autor. Ontem de manhã, apesar da chuva, mergulhei numa caminhada e leitura:

“We live in a moment of profound possibility and disruption. A moment that is marked by the dying of an old mindset and logic of organizing. And one that is marked by the rise of a new awareness and way of activating generative social fields. [Moi ici: Mais tarde o autor descreve o significado deste termo] What is dying and disintegrating is a world of Me First, bigger is better, and special interest group-driven decision making that has led us into a state of organized irresponsibility. [Moi ici: Até aqui o bigger is better a levar tareia. A malta que se reúne nos Encontros da Junqueira continua mergulhada no século XX]
What is being born is less clear. It has to do with shifting our consciousness from ego-system to eco-system awareness—an awareness that attends to the well-being of all.  [Moi ici: Tudo acerca dos ecossistemas do negócio e da regra de maximização do bem comum]
...
 [Moi ici: Corro o risco de usar e abusar do exemplo de Zapatero que ainda há dias referi em "O paradoxo dos peritos", mas reparem no trech que se segue] My first insight is quite elemental. There are two different sources of learning: (1) learning by reflecting on the past and (2) learning by sensing and actualizing emerging future possibilities.
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All traditional organizational learning methods operate with the same learning model: learning by reflecting on past experiences. But then I saw time and again that in real organizations most leaders face challenges that cannot be responded to just by reflecting on the past. Sometimes past experiences are not particularly helpful. Sometimes they are the very obstacles that keep a team from looking at a situation with fresh eyes.
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In other words, learning from the past is necessary but not sufficient. All disruptive challenges require us to go further. They require us to slow down, stop, sense the bigger driving forces of change, let go of the past and let come the future that wants to emerge.
But what does it take to learn from the emerging future? When I started to ask this question, many people looked at me with a blank stare: “Learning from the future? What are you talking about?” Many told me it was a wrongheaded question.
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Yet it was that very question that has organized my research journey for more than two decades. What sets us apart as human beings is that we can connect to the emerging future. That is who we are.   We can break the patterns of the past and create new patterns at scale.
...
Let me say this in different words. We have the gift to engage with two very different qualities and streams of time. One of them is a quality of the present moment that is basically an extension of the past. The present moment is shaped by what has been. The second is a quality of the present moment that functions as a gateway to a field of future possibilities. The present moment is shaped by what is wanting to emerge. [Moi ici: Ah! Ortega y Gasset] That quality of time, if connected to, operates from presencing the highest future potential. The word presencing blends “sensing” with “presence.” It means to sense and actualize one’s highest future potential. Whenever we deal with disruption, it is this second stream of time that matters most. Because without that connection we tend to end up as victims rather than co-shapers of disruption.”

Lembram-se de Boyd e da rapidez? Quando não se conhece o futuro, quando se procura aprender com o futuro que está a emergir, a rapidez é fundamental, e as organizações são tanto mais rápidas quanto mais colaborativa for a aprendizagem de todos e por todos. Não chega o líder iluminado.

Continua.

Generative Listening

Depois de escrever o último postal, "Start moving in some general direction", fiquei a matutar no postal de 2007, "Liderança = energia + movimento":

"The plan (or map) will not of itself actually tell them the route to take: the job of the leader in this situation is one of instilling some confidence in people to start them moving in some general direction, and to be sure that they look closely at cues created by their action, so that they learn where they are and where they want to be. When there is uncertainty or, more properly, equivocality in the environment, intelligent choices may be difficult; such situations put a premium on the robustness of the adaptive procedures rather than of the "map", the strategy or the organization."

Depois, fui ver um filme que o meu parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras me mandou. Gostei tanto dele que ainda fui à procura de outro:

"Start moving in some general direction"

Em 2014 desenhei esta figura para o postal "3 momentos na evolução do sector do calçado"

Sábado ao ler "Technology Reemergence: Creating New Value for Old Technologies in Swiss Mechanical Watchmaking, 1970-2008" de Ryan Raffaelli, publicado por Administrative Science Quarterly 1–43 (2018) encontrei este outro gráfico:

A introdução merece ser aqui registada por incluir tópicos queridos a este blogue:

"This article uses a study of the Swiss mechanical watch industry to build theory about how a legacy technology, instead of being supplanted by a new dominant design as current theory would predict, is able to reemerge and achieve new market growth. The introduction of the battery-powered quartz watch in the 1970s made mechanical watches largely obsolete, but by 2008 the Swiss mechanical watchmaking industry had rematerialized to become the world’s leading exporter (in monetary value) of watches.
...
Watchmakers redefined and combined values of craftsmanship, luxury, and precision to create new meanings and values for mechanical watch technology; repositioned the mechanical watch as an identity and status marker; temporally distanced themselves from the period of the discontinuous quartz technology by recalling their founding and more successful past and connecting it to the future; and used conceptual bridges such as analogies and metaphors to help employees and consumers understand the new meanings. They redefined market boundaries by reclaiming the competitive set, rebuilding the community of mechanical watchmakers, and mobilizing groups of enthusiast consumers who valued the mechanical watch. For mechanical watchmakers, reemergence culminated in competitive and consumer differentiation that ushered in reinvestment in innovation and substantive and sustained demand growth for the legacy technology."

E recordo uma frase citada aqui no blogue pela primeira vez em 2013:

"When something is commoditized, an adjacent market becomes valuable" 

"Schumpeter (1934) argued that the forces of creative destruction overturn existing market structures and force the dismantling of old technologies, as well as their applications in products, processes, and practices. For decades, scholars have linked industry evolution to technology cycles in which a dominant technology is displaced by a new one that initiates a new regime. Prevailing theory emphasizes technological displacement, assuming that older technologies disappear when newer ones arrive: ‘‘The dying technology provides the compost, which allows its own seeds, its own variants, to grow and thrive’’.
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Yet displacement is not inevitable. Market demand for some legacy technologies—products such as sailing ships, vinyl records, fountain pens, and streetcars—declined and then reemerged. This study examines the possibility that demand for some legacy technologies may not die away but persist in a generative form that permits sizeable market expansion. Existing scholarship, however, leaves little room for a legacy technology in a field or industry to reemerge. [Moi ici: Como não recordar a tríade]
...
this paper examines how a legacy technology, and the organizations and community that support it, achieves substantive and sustained market growth following the introduction of a new dominant design."

O artigo merece mais uns comentários, mas para já voltemos ao calçado e à situação actual. Quer pela comoditização da sua posição baseada na flexibilidade e rapidez, quer pela deterioração do actual modelo de negócio, as empresas precisam de voltar a fazer como os soldados com o mapa falso, meter os pés ao caminho, e descobrir/construir o caminho.

Give me a break!

Custa-me escrever este tipo de artigo em que digo mal de quem pede a baixa de impostos, mas tem de ser.

No postal "I wonder..." que escrevi em Julho de 2008 criticava um hotel de 5 estrelas que cobrava 449€ por noite e que tinha uma promoção em que pagava as portagens de auto-estrada aos clientes. Criticava esse hotel por não conhecer os seus clientes-alvo. Em Janeiro de 2012 dava um exemplo de um outro hotel com uma outra abordagem, muito mais adequada aos seus clientes-alvo.

Ontem à noite li este artigo "IVA no golfe mais baixo pode atrair mais turistas para Portugal". Uma pessoa lê estes artigos e pensa:

- Esta gente é parva? Não, esta gente quer fazer de nós parvos!!!

Ora vejamos, comparem o início e o final do parágrafo:

"Os praticantes de golfe são dos turistas que gastam mais nos países por onde passam e a atividade desportiva ajuda também a combater um dos desafios que o turismo em Portugal enfrenta: a sazonalidade. Mas, neste campeonato, Portugal – que tem mais de 90 campos de golfe – não joga em pé de igualdade: “Há países que têm um IVA mais baixo para o golfe, como Países Baixos, Suécia e Polónia. É uma atividade em que os países concorrem uns com os outros; tens de concorrer com Espanha, Turquia e outros. A diferença na taxa do IVA entre as várias geografias faz uma grande diferença no preço”

E mais à frente:

"Portugal foi eleito em 2018, pela quinta vez, o melhor destino de golfe do mundo. O Algarve – onde estão localizados perto de metade dos campos – é o melhor destino do mundo para este desporto em 2020"

E ainda:

"Estes jogadores “ficam talvez por uma semana, em bons hotéis e gastam dinheiro em alimentação e museus. Os golfistas são dos turistas que gastam mais em termos mundiais. É por isso que a indústria do golfe é tão interessante. Os espanhóis entenderam isso muito bem, fazendo pacotes combinados para darem um IVA mais baixo. Talvez fosse uma boa ideia para Portugal”, diz Klootwijk" 

O senhor Lodewijk Klootwijk, secretário-geral da Golf Course Association of Europe (GCAE), não é obrigado a saber, mas ao menos a associação podia ter algum apoio de assessoria em estratégia.

Dois tópicos: Quem são os clientes-alvo do turismo de golfe em Portugal? Qual o posicionamento do golfe de Portugal?

Vamos aos clientes-alvo:

• Acham mesmo que um cliente-alvo que escolhe bons hotéis e gasta muito está preocupado com o IVA?
• Acham mesmo que o melhor destino de golfe do mundo tem de ter um IVA baixo para captar turistas ricos?

Acham que o turista que faz golfe na Holanda escolhe a Holanda por ter um IVA mais baixo? Acham que o turista que faz golfe na Holanda em Janeiro e o que faz golfe em Portugal em Janeiro usam o IVA como critério?

Give me a break.

Costumo dizer que os maiores inimigos do liberalismo são alguns liberais, pedem coisas que não só são impossíveis no imediato como metem medo aos não liberais, e o que devia ser um processo evolutivo acaba por nunca acontecer. Também posso dizer que os maiores inimigos da descida dos impostos são os argumentos usados pelos defensores das descidas de impostos.

Pedofilia empresarial de topo

Lembram-se disto:

Agora atentem nisto, retirado do artigo "As AppleMorphs, A Cost-Cutter Rises" publicado a 24 de Janeiro último no Wall Street Journal:

"To understand Apple Inc.'s evolving place in the tech world, consider that one of its most important executives today is a guy whose job is badgering suppliers to get costs down.
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Tony Blevins, vice president of procurement, will stop at little to get a favorable deal. He has paraded manufacturers past competitors in Apple's lobby and spurned a UPS contract by sending it back to UPS executives through FedEx. He persuaded subcontractors not to pay a chip maker that Apple was in litigation with, depriving the chip company of $8 billion, according to court documents and people who recall the case."

Isto é pedofilia empresarial de topo.

PME cuidado com a pedofilia empresarial quando lidam com uma empresa muito maior.

Isto não augura nada de bom. Quando o momento chegar, muitas facas sairão debaixo das túnicas...

Quanto mais esta cultura ascender na hierarquia, menos espaço haverá para os criativos na hierarquia. É assim que começa o hollowing, que acaba em carcaças ocas de aristocratas arruinados.

Fugir do plancton

Ao longo dos anos tenho seguido notícias sobre a Procter & Gamble. Por exemplo, em Agosto de 2014 escrevi aqui "Porque não somos plankton...". Uma corporação que ao longo dos anos se tem livrado de muitas marcas.

Acerca deste tipo de empresas, tenho escrito sobre a suckiness dos gigantes.

Por isso, foi com interesse que li este artigo no Wall Street Journal de ontem, "P&G Continues to Ride the Shift to Premium Products":

"“We’re looking, as we innovate, to be able to modestly [increase] price and still build value,” he said. “These results required us to overcome several challenges,” he said, citing global economic and political volatility and intensifying competition.
...
P&G’s turnaround has been driven by higher prices, new products and a leaner portfolio of brands. The company has shed mass-market beauty brands and led the industry in a move to raise prices to offset commodity costs and fatten profit margins."

Muito interessante e significativo perceber que um gigante deste calibre descobriu o poder da subida de preços, o Evangelho do Valor.

Gente não fragilista

No Jornal de Negócios do passado dia 23 de Janeiro no artigo "Jesus salvou têxtil, ficou sem a Zara e ganhou Boss e Hilfiger" sublinhei:

"A Círculos & Contrastes, que acabou por falir, tinha um único cliente, a gigante espanhola Inditex, cuja confiança teve de ser reganhada pela nova Tamanho e Tantos. “Tivemos de começar tudo do zero com a Inditex, da qual continuamos completamente dependentes”, lembrou Jesus, que divide a meias o capital da empresa com o seu “sócio e amigo” José Teixeira.
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Entretanto, a líder mundial de venda de roupa a retalho começa a desviar massivamente encomendas para fornecedores mais baratos. “A Inditex, que começou a abandonar Portugal, podia sair a qualquer momento, pelo que começamos a fazer o desmame e a arranjar novas soluções”, recordou o co-CEO da empresa.”

Um bom exemplo. Uma equipa de gestão que não se iludiu com o presente e preparou o futuro. Algo que me fez recordar:

“For the unprepared organisation, periods of significant transition are typically marked by confusion (‘What’s happening?’), uncertainty (‘What should we do?’) and reprisals (‘Who’s to blame?’). Caught by surprise, managers tend to react with hasty, inadequate responses that merely demonstrate their misreading of the situation, or else they are struck by strategic inertia, frozen by their inability to fully comprehend what is happening.”

Só revelam que não são fragilistas, que não acreditam que os astros se vão alinhar para que tudo corra bem. Gente que avalia os riscos do contexto

1. Factor externo negativo - Desinvestimento da Inditex em Portugal
2. Factor interno negativo - Dependência importante da Inditex
3. Risco - Perca de um volume importante de vendas e a sobrevivência da empresa

e aje em conformidade.

Trecho retirado de “Rethinking Strategy” de Steve Tighe.

Uma transformação

"Two decades ago, we sought knowledge by laboriously searching in bulky paper-based encyclopedias or dusty journals in libraries; today we have knowledge on-line at our fingertips at the tap of an app.
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Two decades ago, a car was a metal machine with a couple of electric controls: today, a car is a multifunctional entertainment center on wheels, with which we can even hold conversations.
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Two decades ago, a telephone was a mechanical contraption attached by wire to a physical system: now, a telephone is a handheld multifunction device that connects us to the world and serves an infinite array of complex purposes.
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Two decades ago, an office was a physical building that contained people and machines: now, an office is a software network with people scattered around the planet interacting with it."

E em que medida é que as ofertas da sua empresa se transformaram? Em que medida deixaram de vender substantivos e passaram a vender resultados na vida dos clientes?


Trecho retirado de "How Software Developers Sparked Management Transformation"

Coragem!

"When Jobs was brought back to Apple in 1997, the company was struggling. It only turned a corner when he axed 70% of the "pretty good" projects to focus on the 30% that were incredible.​
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What he did next took real guts.
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Greatness Lies in the 30%
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Regarding the "pretty good" 70%, Jobs continued to say in the interview that "we've pared a lot of that back, so we could focus the same amount of original resource even more on what was remaining -- and add a few new things in."
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In case you're confused, he axed 70% of Apple's projects because he knew that "pretty good" is the enemy of great. With 100% of the former budget for innovation going toward the 30% of "incredibly good" projects, those initiatives could reach their full potential instead of being dragged down by the weight of the "pretty good" ones."

É preciso coragem!!! Não querer estar em todo o lado. Dá um sentido concreto à lição de que o contrário de uma estratégia não é uma estratégia estúpida, é simplesmente uma outra alternativa.

E a sua empresa, quer ir a todas?

Trecho retirado de "Steve Job Used This Simple Rule of Success to Reinvent Apple When the Company Was on the Ropes"

O ideal

"Uma das grandes vantagens do investimento estrangeiro é o know-how que traz. Gosto do investimento estrangeiro para aprendermos com eles, não para eles aprenderem connosco. O capital estrangeiro torna a economia portuguesa mais produtiva e exportadora. É o caso dos investimentos da Autoeuropa, da Bosch, aqui em Braga, ou da Ikea, entre outros. Mas duvido que tenhamos muito a aprender com o capital angolano, a não ser, claro, sobre como capturar governos."

O ideal era termos um enquadramento legal e fiscal que não obrigasse o investimento estrangeiro a ter de negociar condições especiais com o governo de turno.

Trecho retirado de "Ao menos os ratos abandonam o navio, não o afundam" no Público de ontem.

"Scenarios are about freedom"

Há sectores económicos em que empresas bem sucedidas são capazes de, em certas alturas do ciclo económico anual, precisarem de crédito bancário para financiarem a sua actividade. Agora imaginem que começam a surgir mais e mais notícias de encerramentos e falências de empresas desses sectores económicos. Mesmo as empresas bem sucedidas desses sectores, vão sentir cada vez mais dificuldade em obter crédito bancário.

O que acabei de escrever é outro exemplo da aplicação do pensamento baseado no risco.

(1) Factor externo negativo - notícias cada vez mais frequentes de encerramentos e falências no nosso sector.
(2) Factor interno negativo - o nosso nível de actividade actual requer um volume de crédito relevante para financiar a actividade durante parte do ciclo anual.
(3) Risco - dificuldade crescente em obter crédito bancário.

“Having explored the factors influencing their operating environment, how these factors might evolve and their possible future impacts, managers emerge from the scenario process with a broader and deeper understanding of the environment in which they have to function and compete. In turn, this learning provides a liberating dose of clarity:

• ‘This is what we think could happen.(3)’

• ‘This is why we think it could happen.(1x2)’

• ‘This is how we think it could happen.’

• ‘And this is what we intend to do about it.’

In this sense, the organisational learning that occurs is empowering. Scenarios are about freedom. They allow you to act with confidence on the original insights you generate. In turn, this confidence provides another nail in the coffin of the stereotype of scenarios as a conservative tool for risk management.”

Trechos retirados de “Rethinking Strategy” de Steve Tighe.

Quantos projectos?

Ontem de manhã li o artigo "Learning for a Living" e logo no início sublinhei:

“Get ready for an age in which we are all in tech,” he had told them, “whether you work in the tech industry or not.”

E sorri. Sorri, porque foi o que pensei ao iniciar a leitura de “Zone to Win - Organizing to Compete in an Age of Disruption” de Geoffrey A. Moore, um velho conhecido deste blogue (o primeiro livro que comprei dele foi em 2007). Por exemplo, ontem durante a caminhada matinal ao olhar para a figura:

Pensei nas empresas de calçado que depois de uma feira desanimadora em Garda começam a pensar seriamente em mudar de vida.

• Performance zone - “This is the engine room for operating established franchises on proven business models. The focus is on material revenue performance derived from established businesses that are sustaining to the status quo. It is home to the organizations that make the offers you sell and sell the offers you make. ... The importance of maintaining the viability of the performance zone can hardly be overstated. It is the source of more than 90 percent of the enterprise’s revenues and well north of 100 percent of its profits.” [Moi ici: Fundamental continuar a vender, produzir, entregar, facturar, receber e cumprir os compromissos]
• Productivity zone - “The focus is on applying sustaining innovation to productivity-enabling initiatives targeted primarily at the performance zone with the bulk of the ROI expected to fall into Horizon 1. These initiatives are delivered via programs and systems for ensuring regulatory compliance, efficient operations, and effective competitive performance. The normal challenge for the productivity zone is to manage the tensions among its three core deliverables—compliance, efficiency, and effectiveness—without subordinating any one of them to the other two.” [Moi ici: A facturação está a baixar, o próximo ciclo de crescimento ainda não está assegurado, é preciso aumentar a produtividade. Pode passar por reduzir gama de produtos, pode passar por encolher, pode passar por deixar de recorrer a subcontratação, ou passar a recorrer a subcontratação]
• Incubation zone - “the incubation zone plays enabling host to fast-growing offers in emerging categories and markets that are not yet producing a material amount of revenue. Its charter is a simple one: Position the enterprise to catch the next wave.” [Moi ici: Qualquer empresa deve ter um "recreio" onde se fazem experiências. Por exemplo, ontem mandaram-me um pdf com este gráfico] 
  

• Transformation zone - “the place in an established enterprise where a disruptive business model goes to be scaled to material size. It is primarily a tool for offense, the goal being to scale rapidly to a stable, material, net new line of business, one that constitutes 10 percent or more of the enterprise’s current revenues, on a growth trajectory that promises both increased size and superior profitability.” [Moi ici: Aqui, o risco principal é ter o novo modelo de negócio gerido por quem tem o mindset formatado no nível anterior do jogo. Por exemplo, ter medo de afectar a eficiência, quando o novo modelo pede rapidez acioma de tudo]

Quantos projectos é que a sua empresa tem na Incubation zone? Tem algum projecto na Transformation zone? O que está a fazer para limpar na Productivity zone?

O retorno dos independentes

“If we see our products as books and what we compete on price, we lose. If we see our product as an experience, of which books are one piece, then we can compete.”

"Raffaelli distills the resurgence of the indies down to three main points: Community, Curation, and Convening.
.
Community: As longtime community stalwarts, bookstores have been at the vanguard of the “buy local” movement, pioneering events such as Small-Business Saturday, and making their customers feel virtuous about spending money in their own neighborhoods. “It’s almost like a social movement,” says Raffaelli, who says indie bookstores are “anchors of authenticity in an ever-increasing digital and disconnected world.” The notion goes beyond a bond with customers to include other important community actors, such as schools, chambers of commerce, and civic organizations, reinforcing the social fabric and engendering a strong sense of customer and community loyalty.
.
Curation: Despite the increasing sophistication of online algorithms, online platforms have been unable to replicate the knowledge and passion of indie bookstore employees, says Raffaelli. “Many booksellers are voracious readers and serve as trusted guides who can point their customers to new genres or up-and-coming authors they might not have encountered,” he says. “Customers leave the store excited and then want to come back.” By contrast, he says, Amazon’s reputation as “the everything store” can sometimes work against it, overwhelming consumers with too many options and an impersonal experience.
.
Convening: Indie bookstores are increasingly serving as points for convening, expanding beyond author events to host book groups, children’s story hours, birthday parties, music events, knitting circles, culinary demonstrations, and other events. Several stores Raffaelli visited reported staging over 500 events a year. “Bookstores have always been a place where people could convene and have a conversation about the issues of the day,” he says, adding that bookstore owners are increasingly seeing their competition not as Barnes & Noble, but as Netflix and other entertainment apps that tie people to their couches. “Retailers who succeed are able to create a unique experience that consumers see as time well-spent. [Moi ici: Nunca esqueço de Pine e a sua relaação entre experiência e "time weel spent"] Not only do such events get people into the store—the number one goal of every retailer—but events open the door for readers to connect with other bibliophiles, creating more demand for their products.
Ironically, in their efforts to build community, bookstores have increasingly embraced the online world as a tool to extend their reach. “Bookstores have become sophisticated at building a social media presence,” Raffaelli says. “Many owners have hired online specialists to extend the conversation outside the four walls of the bookstore itself.”

Interessante esta ferramenta de avaliação das lojas:

 Fontes:

• Lessons for Retailers from the Rebirth of Indie Bookstores
• Reinventing Retail: The Novel Resurgence of Independent Bookstores

"when speed is low, development requires big investments"

O meu parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras enviou-me o link para este artigo "Six ingredients of agile organizational design" com o comentário:

"Só agora associei o Scrum como uma resposta para planeamento do Mongo!"

Caro amigo... até apetece exclamar: Duh!!!

Li o artigo duas vezes e das duas vezes sublinhei este trecho:

"Nowadays, a company’s chances of survival are low if it takes too long to create (new) products. Our company becomes slow if we need a number of teams, each producing a part of the product, to be able to create possible customer value. The specialised team approach creates many dependencies between teams when we try to create customer value. We only know if our product (or change) is successful after releasing it in the hands of the customer because that is when we get real feedback and our assumptions are validated. The slower our company is, the longer it takes before we get customer feedback, i.e. return on investment (if any). That’s why when speed is low, development requires big investments." 

E sorri ao relacionar com a série "Acerca da rapidez" e com as novas regras de xadrez. Mongo tem tudo a ver com rapidez, flexibilidade e personalização.

E acerca de:

"Some teams do not even know what value they are creating from a customer point of view: the workers have never seen a real customer or they don’t have one because they deliver so-called “products” to another department."

Fez-me recordar um texto citado aqui no blogue recentemente:

"Leaders who connect employees with end users motivate higher performance, measured in terms of revenue as well as supervisors’ ratings.
...
Customers, clients, patients, and others who benefit from a company’s products and services motivate employees by serving as tangible proof of the impact of their work, expressing appreciation for their contributions, and eliciting empathy, which helps employees develop a deeper understanding of customers’ needs."

“The core problem is uncertainty”

"It was expected, perhaps, but still startling. In its 22nd Annual Global CEO Survey, PwC asked 1,378 top business leaders from around the world which territories (excluding their own) they considered the most important for their company’s growth prospects in the next 12 months. The world’s chief executives were noticeably noncommittal. As many as 15 percent of them answered “don’t know” in 2019, up from 8 percent the previous year.CEOs in the United States were even more dubious: 14 percent of them didn’t consider any other markets suitable for growth, up from only 2 percent in the 2018 survey.
...
This shift in attitude is already reflected in business investment. Of the 31 percent of CEOs who said they were “extremely concerned” about trade wars, 45 percent said they were shifting their supply chain strategy, and 25 percent said they were shifting their growth strategies to other territories.
...
Fundamental aspects of the global economy have been shifting for more than a decade. Elements undergoing change include costs for manufacturing (including labor costs, which are rising), new technological platforms (such as those associated with Industry 4.0), stronger suppliers and other businesses in emerging markets (which are maturing), middle-class consumer populations around the world (which are growing rapidly in emerging markets and shrinking in other places), and political and regulatory uncertainties.
...
A new model of market expansion strategy — we call it “internationalization” — is replacing the globalism of the early 2000s. This model acknowledges that the global business ecosystem now includes many small and medium-sized enterprises and ambitious family businesses, often based in emerging markets, linked together by collaborative supply chains and platforms. At the same time, larger companies with established global supply chains have realized that they need to bring their operations closer to the demand they are targeting. The trade tensions of 2019 have heightened awareness of these dynamics, and accelerated the business response to them.
...
To be sure, global trade will still thrive, but there will be more regional concentration. Rather than shipping goods around the world from cheaplabor hubs, companies manufacture goods for Asian customers in Asia, for European customers in Central Europe, and for North American customers in Latin America. They develop regional footprints, sourcing from more locations."

Interessante:

"The World Trade Organization (WTO) published a report in June 2019 showing that G20 nations had implemented 20 new restrictive trade measures between October 2018 and May 2019, including higher tariffs, import bans, and new customs procedures for exports.
...
All this has had a chilling effect on international commerce. Imports by G20 economies were 1.2 percent lower in the first quarter of 2019 than they were a year earlier, whereas exports were only marginally (0.4 percent) higher, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development figures show. “The core problem is uncertainty,” said Piyush Gupta, chief executive of Singapore’s largest domestic bank, DBS, in an interview with strategy+business. “There’s a general environment of skittishness.”"

Trechos retirados de "Growth strategies for an uncertain world"

Para reflexão

Um texto para reflexão:

“Burroughs • Sperry Univac • Honeywell • Control Data • MSA • McCormack & Dodge • Cullinet • Cincom • ADR • CA • DEC • Data General • Wang • Prime • Tandem • Daisy • Calma • Valid • Apollo • Silicon Graphics • Sun • Atari • Osborne • Commodore • Casio • Palm • Sega • WordPerfect • Lotus • Ashton Tate • Borland • Informix • Ingres • Sybase • BEA • Seibel • PowerSoft • Nortel • Lucent • 3Com • Banyan • Novell • Pacific Bell • Qwest • America West • Nynex • Bell South • Netscape • MySpace • Inktomi • Ask Jeeves • AOL • Blackberry • Motorola • Nokia • Sony
.
I have spent the entirety of my business career working in the technology sector, and I can assure you, if you are looking for next waves to catch, there is no better place to hang out. Nevertheless, there are fifty-six companies on this list of companies that failed to do so. Look at the names. These were not the losers; these were the winners! These were not our worst management teams; these were our best! And yet every single one of them missed every single one of their efforts to catch the next big wave—hundreds and hundreds of misses with nary a single hit. Why is this so hard?It turns out, to disrupt someone else’s business, you have to add a net new line of business to your own portfolio. This is, in effect, a form of elective surgery, one that can be scheduled at will. Because it is voluntary, because we get to choose the time and place of engagement, we are led to believe we have things under control. Unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth. The real truth is most companies take run after run at this hurdle, but each time, at the critical juncture, that moment when you have to either go big or go home, they shy away. Normally it is not until their own legacy business comes under attack that they can summon the will to change, but by then it is usually too late.”

Trechos retirados de “Zone to Win: Organizing to Compete in an Age of Disruption” de Geoffrey A. Moore.

"o tempo das marcas tradicionais terminou"

Ao longo dos anos tenho escrito aqui no blogue sobre Mongo e sobre a suckiness dos gigantes. Apesar disso foi com alguma surpresa que li "Época dos construtores tradicionais acabou, diz CEO da VW":

"Foi num discurso duro e com um conjunto de mensagens alarmantes que o CEO do Grupo Volkswagen se dirigiu aos seus colegas seniores da administração, após a reunião global do conglomerado que dirige. Referindo-se ao futuro de um grupo que nos últimos anos liderou o mercado mundial em vendas, Herbert Diess avisou, segundo a Reuters, que o tempo das marcas tradicionais terminou e que a empresa que dirige tem de acelerar a sua remodelação para evitar transformar-se na nova Nokia,
...
Para Diess, os objectivos a curto prazo passam por cortar nos custos e incrementar as receitas
...
Para o CEO, a receita para atingir os fins passa reduzir a complexidade, incrementar a produtividade, especialmente na Alemanha, concluindo que, acima de tudo, o grupo tem de se concentrar mais no lucro e menos nos volumes de vendas. [Moi ici: Como não recordar o velho slogan deste blogue "Volume is Vanity, Profit is Sanity", como não recordar a "anorexia empresarial"]"

O que vai minorando a queda das empresas grandes é a protecção de Bruxelas e dos governos dos estados com regulação e legislação. Estamos algures naqueles dias incipientes numa evolução exponencial de nenúfares, antes do dia 47. Que milhares de Local Motors floresçam.

Acerca da rapidez (parte III)

Parte II e parte I.

Quem anda nisto há alguns anos sabe que a "the next big thing" não virá como um passe de mágico, como uma revelação profética de um qualquer ministro, ou académico, ou paineleiro (a minha clássica tríade). Esses ainda estão a aprender como é que ganhámos na jogada anterior bilhetes para jogar no novo nível sem ser no preço puro e duro.

As soluções para adquirir bilhete e jogar o jogo de novo a um novo nível serão descobertas por tentativa e erro por quem anda no terreno, [Moi ici: Como não lembrar o mapa de Weick] por quem encolheu e enquanto tem minutos de oxigénio, vai fazendo experiências.

"The moral of the story is that when you are lost, any old map will do. The story demonstrates very clearly that it is what people do when they are uncertain that is important, rather than what they plan. By analogy, strategic plans function a lot like maps in which the crucial factor is not the map (or strategy) but the fact that you have something which will get you started on a path to the future. Once people begin to act (enactment), they generate tangible outcomes (cues) in some context (social) and that helps them discover (retrospect) what is occurring (ongoing), what needs to be explained (plausibility) and what should be done next (identity enhancement)."

Um bom ponto de partida julgo que passará por "Nichos, co-criação e intimidade à escala". Recordo
Mudar e anichar e Anichar

Claro que haverá gente disposta a enveredar pela race-to-the-bottom e continuar a apostar nos custos mais baixos. Por isso, fiz questão deste postal ser o primeiro do ano.

• For frequent future use - a reminder that predictability is for suckers

Por fim, fecho esta série com uns trechos de "there is value in discovery":

"I do think there’s value in being open to change and trying to be comfortable with the uncertainty that transformation brings.[Moi ici: Recordar Gonzales e os que quando se perdem acabam por achar-se]
.
 I think most of the time, even a change that’s largely negative has some positive elements to it, but I don’t see anything necessary about change being positive. It’s a gamble."

Os que são atirados para a aventura... espero que estejam minimamente preparados e com uma mente como a da Victorinox.

Nichos, co-criação e intimidade à escala

"Dalton, Ohio is an unlikely place to find fresh insight into how to thrive in a chaotic 21st-century economy.[Moi ici: Pensem no século XXI, na internet, em toda a parfernália tecnológica e, depois, pensem numa empresa de gente Amish que cumpre os preceitos Amish, que não pode ter electricidade da rede ligada ao negócio, que não pode usar a internet, ... como prosperam?]
...
A company like Pioneer could not have been nearly as successful in a previous era. It is, in its own way, thoroughly modern and embodies what I call the “passion economy”
...
The tools of modern commerce—easy access to sophisticated shipping and logistics, the ability to reach and connect with customers all over the globe—are now available even to the most technologically unsophisticated businessperson. This allows something new: intimacy at scale, in which companies can create highly specialized products that reach customers thinly spread around the world.[Moi ici: Quando leio estas coisas lembro-me sempre da lição alemã que aprendi em 2010 - ""pursue niche strategies that combine product specialization with geographic diversification", "they concentrate their often limited resources on niche market segments that they can dominate worldwide.", e de Conrado Adolfo e o fim da geografia, apesar de Ghemawat]
.
The Pioneer business model would be hard to pitch to a group of investors. The core addressable market is fewer than 25,000 farmers, with decidedly below-average purchasing power. That market cannot be reached through digital ads, TV or radio. The products themselves are big and bulky and need to be shipped from rural Ohio to remote customers across North America. [Moi ici: Sabe quem são os seus clientes? Sabe o que procuram e valorizam? Sabe quais são as suas ansiedades e sonhos? Sabe quais são os seus medos e dores? Sabe o que é sucesso para eles?]
...
Amish farmers are increasingly shifting from bulk commodity grains to higher-value produce, which means they need entirely different kinds of gear. [Moi ici: Interessante esta nota acerca da fuga à comoditização por parte de uma comunidade que não pode usar tecnologia moderna e tudo o que apoia o eficientismo da quantidade] Many Amish are moving north, leaving their historic districts in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Indiana for relatively cheap farmland in the deindustrializing Rust Belt and the prairie out west. This means they are farming colder, rockier ground and need plows that are stronger and more pliable.
...
In today’s economy, the narrowness and complexity of Pioneer’s market is actually a strength. While 25,000 farmers aren’t enough to attract the full attention of the big players like John Deere, Kubota and Caterpillar, they are more than enough to support Pioneer and several other Amish farm equipment makers, all of which are growing healthily.
...
Companies like Pioneer will not replace large firms, which are getting bigger and more dominant in the American economy.
...
But companies like Pioneer offer an alternative path. By focusing obsessively and passionately on an audience that they know uniquely well, and by embracing the tools that will help them serve that audience while rejecting those that won’t, such small businesses are able to thrive in the 21st-century economy."

Quando em "Acerca da rapidez (parte II)" rematamos no final "Talvez os nichos sejam o futuro, talvez a co-criação seja o futuro." estamos a sugerir o mesmo caminho referido no último trecho sublinhado. Focar um nicho e servir esse nicho como ninguém"

Trechos retirados de "An Amish Lesson for Small Business Success"

Acerca da rapidez (parte II)

Parte I.

Recordo o texto de sexta-feira, "Para reflexão", onde comecei por relatar o choque negativo que o calçado está a sofrer. Muitas PME nos mais variados sectores transaccionáveis ganharam espaço no mercado, após o choque chinês dos anos 2000, recorrendo à rapidez, flexibilidade, proximidade como escrevi em "Flexigurança, fiscalidade e competitividade" em Janeiro de 2007. Por estes dias interrogo-me sobre até que ponto essa cartada continua válida, ou se já estará a chegar ao fim do seu prazo de validade. Quando escrevi em Dezembro passado:

"Marrocos, Roménia, Turquia, conseguem competir no campeonato da rapidez e flexibilidade com custos mais baixos"

Percebemos que a carta da "rapidez, flexibilidade, proximidade" foi igualada e ultrapassada porque ainda juntam preços mais baixos. Ministros e académicos podem sorrir e antecipar subidas na produtividade agregada com o encerramento de sectores tradicionais. Contudo, quem dirige empresas nesses sectores tem de pensar em como dar a volta à situação.

Os políticos e quem trabalha na função pública pensam em direitos adquiridos. Nas empresas a vida é a vida, não é nem justa nem injusta. Não há futuro adquirido, ou se seduzem clientes

ou se cai no precipicio.

Contar com o ovo no cu da galinha é a morte do artista.

Lembram-se das críticas aos empresários no tempo do Cavaco? Dinheiros investidos nas empresas e ... nada

Será que vão dizer o mesmo dos milhões metidos no calçado?

É a vida! Os milhões metidos em empresas que estavam ajustadas à estratégia anterior, vão parecer terem sido lançados ao lixo, porque essa estratégia vai deixar de funcionar.

Numa primeira fase as empresas que não vão morrer, para já, vão ter de encolher, vão ter de fazer o que fez Steve Jobs quando regressou à Apple. Depois, vão ter de esperar, trabalhar, para descobrir "the next big thing":

"In the summer of 1998, I got an opportunity to talk with Jobs again. I said, “Steve, this turnaround at Apple has been impressive. But everything we know about the PC business says that Apple cannot really push beyond a small niche position. The network effects are just too strong to upset the Wintel standard. So what are you trying to do in the longer term? What is the strategy?” He did not attack my argument. He didn’t agree with it, either. He just smiled and said, “I am going to wait for the next big thing.” Jobs did not enunciate some simple-minded growth or market share goal. He did not pretend that pushing on various levers would somehow magically restore Apple to market leadership in personal computers. Instead, he was actually focused on the sources of and barriers to success in his industry—recognizing the next window of opportunity, the next set of forces he could harness to his advantage, and then having the quickness and cleverness to pounce on it quickly like a perfect predator. There was no pretense that such windows opened every year or that one could force them open with incentives or management tricks."

É claro que PME não precisam da "the next big thing" com a dimensão da Apple. Talvez os nichos sejam o futuro, talvez a co-criação seja o futuro.

Continua.

Acerca da rapidez (parte I)

No Le Figaro de hoje um artigo interessante "La montée en gamme des marques chinoises". Assim que o comecei a ler recordei o OODA loop de Boyd. Antes de mergulhar no artigo, convido a ler um excerto de "Parte II: OODA loops, a agilidade, o partir pedra e o xadrez," escrito em Janeiro de 2009:

"Procure o melhor jogador de xadrez que conseguir e ofereça-se para jogar com ele sob estas condições:
O seu adversário faz a primeira jogada;
Você faz duas jogadas por cada uma das que ele fizer.
.
De facto, até pode oferecer-se para abdicar de algumas peças, para que o jogo seja mais justo. Descobrirá que, a menos que esteja a jogar com alguém de nível muito elevado, pode desistir de praticamente tudo e ainda assim ganhar. Mantendo os cavalos e talvez uma torre.
.
Esta é uma ilustração expressiva de como o opositor materialmente mais fraco, usando a agilidade, pode ultrapassar uma grande desvantagem numérica.”
.
Please rewind and read again."

Percebem porque fico doente com a falta de fogo no rabo?

Voltemos ao artigo:

"Les marques chinoises ne font plus fuir le consommateur chinois. Au contraire. En à peine dix ans, l'étiquette « made in China », auparavant synonyme de mauvaise qualité et d' arnaque au consommateur, est devenue dans beaucoup de cas symbole de fierté nationale, et même recherchée par un public entièrement digitalisé, avisé, exigeant et difficile à fidéliser. Aujourd'hui le millennial chinois - cible phare des marques à la fois chinoises et internationales - s'attend à ce qu'une marque anticipe ses besoins et rende l'expérience d'achat la plus pratique possible. Véritable témoin de la montée en puissance de la Chine sur la scène internationale, il n'hésite pas à acheter chinois, contrairement à la génération précédente qui peine encore à sauter le pas.
...
Au-delà de la qualité qui est au rendez-vous, les marques chinoises connaissent leur marché et sont plus flexibles et rapides à s'adapter que leurs concurrents étrangers. Elles ont su ajuster leur management, valoriser le branding et segmenter leur offre. Mais surtout, la vraie valeur ajoutée est leur compréhension des enjeux de la digitalisation et de l'e-commerce. Ce sont avant tout des entreprises technologiques comme le sont par exemple Ofo (vélos connectés) ou VIP Kids (éducation en ligne). « Une marque chinoise peut sortir un produit en six mois contre deux ans pour une multinationale. En plus, beaucoup sont nées lors de l'ère digitale, ce qui leur donne un avantage pour innover, notamment dans la vente en ligne » , selon Chris Reitemann, directeur géné-ral Chine pour Ogilvy." 

Continua.

" there is value in discovery"

"a lot of us get stuck in routines, whether it’s way we behave or what we think, and our world shrinks. How important do you think it is to project into new ways of thinking and being – how vital is it to inject change into our lives?.
That’s an interesting question. I do think it’s important to inject change into our lives. I think that a part of living sometimes involves what I think of as revelations – a discovery of new things about the world, new ways of being, new ways to interact both with the world, with others, and new ways to be. I think that’s quite valuable. It’s not true for everyone, I think it’s a dispositional characteristic, but to the extent that changing keeps you intellectually alive and vibrant and also living with a certain amount of uncertainty, even if it’s challenging and difficult, keeps you on the edge in a good way, then transformation, at least on some dimensions, is worthwhile.
.
I wouldn’t say it’s always worthwhile, because sometimes a transformative experience is utterly negative and painful and horrible – and in some ways may make you into a better self, into a better person, but it’s hard to advise someone to go down that path.
.
A terrible accident, for example, can be transformative, declining into Alzheimer’s can be transformative. These are often things that are incredibly painful and difficult, but I still think that they have value, in a way. Maybe what I’m saying is that you can even find value in some of the most negative experiences that we have, partly because they do teach us something: there is value in discovery....
Once we’ve made a decision that will lead to an irreversible change, should we try to make the most of the situation and, for want of a better term, embrace the change?.
Often with transformative experiences, it’s not that we have a choice. Part of the idea is that this experience comes upon us and we discover its character as it affects us. It’s not that you’re going to be able to step back and decide how you’re going to respond to it. You’re going to respond to it in a very raw and primal way, and that’s probably why it’s so life-changing. And sometimes we can be changed in ways that we don’t even notice – the long process of becoming a philosophy professor, for example. Day to day you don’t notice the change, it’s when you look back to years ago, when you embarked on the PhD, you realise that so much about you has changed and you’ve become a new self.
.
That said, I do think there’s value in being open to change and trying to be comfortable with the uncertainty that transformation brings. I do think that’s the right way to approach things, but I don’t think we have a lot of control. A friend of mine said, “your ideas are kind of subversive in a certain way”, and that’s right, part of my point is that we have a lot less control than we think we do. We tell ourselves this story where we look forward, we make an assessment, we have control, we’re in charge, we know what we’re doing. And I’m saying that most of that’s just bullshit.
.
Is change always positive?.
No. No, it certainly doesn’t always have to be positive. I think most of the time, even a change that’s largely negative has some positive elements to it, but I don’t see anything necessary about change being positive. It’s a gamble."

Trechos retirados de "Transformative experience" na revista New Philosopher

Para reflexão

Ontem em conversa com empresário do calçado, tive oportunidade de ouvir um relato sobre a situação do sector que não abona nada de bom para os próximos tempos.

Escreveremos sobre a situação do sector, mas para já só queria referir que a certa altura, para amenizar a conversa, perante as previsões muito negativas que se traduzirão inevitalmente em desemprego, referi que alguns especialistas e ministros ficarão todos contentes com essa perspectiva.

Uns porque isso significará uma subida da produtividade agregada. Lembrem-se da anedota, quanto um fanático do eficientismo chega a CEO age até tornar a empresa uma agência de compra e venda, produção própria reduz a eficiência. Outros porque assim terão a mão de obra que lhes falta ou vai faltar. E referi o exemplo do ministro da Administração Interna que quer contratar 10 mil polícias. 10 mil?!?! Onde os há?!?! Com a emigração, com a demografia, com a actual taxa de desemprego, onde arranjar 10 mil futuros polícias?

Esta manhã apanhei este tweet:

Boa análise de Mário Jekyll Centeno. Já o Ministro, Mário Hyde Centeno, discordaria. pic.twitter.com/t6VAaiCzxn

— MAL (@mlopes) January 17, 2020

"Sorry" or "Thank you"?

"Business leaders worldwide report that consumers’ expectations of service quality are higher than ever. It is therefore not surprising that consumers’ interactions with service providers are often rife with service failures, or negative service encounters that do not live up to their expectations.
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Meanwhile, service failures engender formidable consequences to businesses, such as considerable financial loss and negative word of mouth (WOM). For example, U.S. companies lost $1.6 trillion in 2016 from customer switching caused by poor service, and 44% of unsatisfied customers vented their frustrations on social channels.
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Given the prevalence and dire consequences of service failures, identifying effective recovery methods that are cost efficient and easy to implement is critical to restore consumer satisfaction and increase retention.
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Specifically, while apology (e.g., “Sorry for the wait”) acknowledges the service failure through the admission of service providers’ fault and accountability, appreciation (e.g., “Thank you for your wait”) acknowledges the service failure by honoring consumers as a benefactor and highlighting their merits and contributions. Drawing from research on consumer self-view, we expect that this shift of focus in the service provider – consumer interaction (from “sorry” to “thank you”) can significantly increase consumer self-esteem. As a result, appreciation should be superior to apology in boosting consumer postrecovery satisfaction.
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Our findings have substantial implications for service providers regarding how to effectively recover service failures. As an initial step after service failures, service providers need to decide what to say to consumers to redress the failure and restore satisfaction. Despite abundant guidance on whether and when to redress a service failure, researchers have offered little advice on what service providers should say, except for recommending that they apologize for the service failure. Our work suggests that rather than saying “sorry,” service providers should say “thank you,” which is often more effective in enhancing consumer satisfaction. In addition, our studies identify the effectiveness of various symbolic recovery strategies for service failures and thus contribute to better managing business operations.
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Moreover, this research emphasizes that what service providers ultimately say (“thank you” or “sorry”) should be tailored to certain situational (i.e., timing of the recovery, severity of failure, and presence of utilitarian recovery) and individual (e.g., consumers’ trait narcissism) factors. For example, our results suggest that service providers could monitor the service delivery and redress potential failures in advance. Furthermore, we show that when the service failure is severe, utilitarian recovery or material compensation is a prerequisite for the superior effect of appreciation. We also alert service providers to the importance of consumers’ personality traits, especially their level of narcissism. Our research suggests that service providers should use appreciation in their service recovery for consumers with a higher narcissistic tendency (e.g., those who use social networks more, are younger) but should be aware that appreciation is not necessarily better than apology for those low in narcissism."

Excerpts from "When and Why Saying “Thank You” Is Better Than Saying “Sorry” in Redressing Service Failures: The Role of Self-Esteem" de Yanfen You, Xiaojing Yang , Lili Wang, and Xiaoyan Deng, published by Journal of Marketing.

Demografia e clientes-alvo

No Financial Times Asia de ontem apanhei este artigo:

Depois, sorri ao ler no Wall Street Journal de ontem o artigo "Aging Japanese Flock to Gyms— For Hot Baths and Small Talk":

"Exercise buff Yukie Watabe just about had it when she went to her fitness club and found older women using the bench-press machine as an actual bench. The women were chatting about how to pickle vegetables at home—a worthy subject for the health-conscious, no doubt, but not quite the vibe Ms. Watabe was looking for. “I complained a couple of times to the staff there. But it seemed they prioritized” the elderly clientele, said Ms. Watabe, 46 years old. She quit the club and now jogs with her husband. Japan’s retired people are taking over establishments traditionally associated with youth and sculpted bodies. The gym of the future, as seen in a country where nearly 30% of the population is over 65, features tai chi classes, lengthy soaks in hot baths and plenty of socializing among folks who have no business meetings to rush back to.
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At Renaissance, only 3% of members were over 60 a quarter-century ago. Today, one in three are in that category and, depending on the location and time of the day, the customers are nearly all elderly, said a spokeswoman.
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Yoshihiko Kato, a 49-year old factory worker in Tokyo, recently quit his fitness club and switched to Anytime Fitness, a Minnesota-based chain with outlets in Japan. It appeals to a younger crowd with 24-hour service and a focus on fitness machines rather than amenities for relaxing.
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“I’m going to get old too, so I don’t want to complain,” said Mr. Kato. At his previous club, he said, “I was a bit annoyed at how a group of old people were chatting nonstop.” For gym operators, elderly members have helped tone up the bottom line. Japan’s fitness industry in 2018 posted a record $4.4 billion in revenue, and government figures show more than half of that comes from people over 60, who tend to buy pricier full memberships."

E recordei:

• A Natureza tem horror ao desperdício (Setembro de 2017) 

"Quando um ginásio coloca pósteres de moças e moços a caminho de algum concurso de culturismo ou de beleza, está a apostar e a dizer ao mercado quem são os seus alvos e, ao mesmo tempo está a dizer aos seniores: nós não somos para vocês.
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Sabem o quanto gosto de associar biologia e economia. Por isso, vejo este desenvolvimento como: os nutrientes existem (os seniores e os gestores que pensam no futuro do SNS) e as espécies existentes (ginásios) não os consomem. A Natureza tem horror ao desperdício. Por isso, cria novas espécies que aproveitam esses nutrientes (recordar que a evolução natural é fugir de restrições)"

• E quando o mundo muda? (Junho de 2015)

"E interrogo-me porque é que nunca vi um ginásio dedicado explicitamente ao sector sénior?
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Têm dimensão, têm tempo livre, têm poder de compra, têm um trabalho concreto por realizar (recuperar/manter e prolongar qualidade de vida, autonomia, autoestima, ...)"

Outras cativações

Ontem circulava na A29 enquanto ouvia o noticiário das 7 da manhã na Antena 1. A certa altura ouvi o presidente Marcelo em Moçambique a elogiar o superavit orçamental português. Depois, liguei o iPad ao sistema do carro e comecei a ouvir uma série de artigos via Pocket. Um deles foi, "Why Airlines Want to Make You Suffer". A certa altura fixei:

"This fall, JetBlue airline finally threw in the towel. For years, the company was among the last holdouts in the face of an industry trend toward smaller seats, higher fees, and other forms of unpleasantness. JetBlue distinguished itself by providing decent, fee-free service for everyone, an approach that seemed to be working: passengers liked the airline, and it made a consistent profit."

E comecei a pensar... a doença anglo-saxónica é terrível! E recordei o artigo de Terça-feira no Público sobre o descalabro da Boeing, "O dilema moral da trágica liderança na Boeing":

"Mais de 150 páginas de mensagens entregues ao Congresso dos EUA revelam como toda a cadeia de comando tinha fortes preocupações com a contenção de custos. Numa indústria que fabrica produtos complexos, como os aviões actuais de passageiros, uma gestão focada no custo pode ter um preço elevado.

E fiz a ligação com as cativações...

Qual a diferença entre a loucura da Boeing e as cativações na Saúde, na Educação, nos Transportes, na Justiça, ...?

Costa & Centeno = Dennis Muilenburg.
Marcelo talvez venha a ser considerado o David L. Calhoun.

Context, interested parties and risks (part III)

Part I and Part II.

The following excerpt is all about context and risks:

"Many of the world’s problems stem from the false belief that we can accurately predict the future.
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We do not know what the future will hold. But we must make decisions anyway. So we crave certainties which cannot exist and invent knowledge we cannot have. But humans are successful because they have adapted to an environment that they understand only imperfectly."

Excerpt from "How to Make Decisions for an Unknowable Future"

"a resource not as a substance or thing, but rather as an abstraction"

"although operand resources often contribute to the cocreation of value, without the application of operant resources, such as knowledge, skills, and competences, value cocreation does not occur.
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An important part of the service-centered view is to understand that the nature of resources is contextual. In other words, resources are not, they become. This means that actors’ knowledge and skills—that is, other resources—determine the resourceness of resources.
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Consider, for example, fire: The resourceness of fire only became available for humans once the knowledge and skills needed to control and apply fire for specific purposes were developed. Hence, potential resources become resources when appraised and acted on through integration with other potential resources.
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“Value is cocreated by multiple actors, always including the beneficiary”) and the nature of value outcomes and their determination (Axiom 4, “Value is always uniquely and phenomenologically determined by the beneficiary”)."

Li isto e fiz logo a ponte para a importância da formação dos comerciais sobre como comunicar, ou sobre como fazer emergir a "resourceness" na vida dos clientes.

"a resource not as a substance or thing, but rather as an abstraction that describes the function that a substance or idea contributes to achieve a desired end. Hence, to integrate resources, resource-integrating actors must first be able to recognize the resourceness of the potential resources available to him/her. Therefore, the process of affording potential resources their resourceness becomes a prerequisite for resource integration and value cocreation. For this reason, a deeper understanding of  resources is critical for the further development of SD logic and its service ecosystems perspective.
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resourceness is not an intrinsic characteristic of a resource, but is a socially constructed and institutionalized phenomenon"

Trechos retirados da tese de doutoramento "The evolution of markets – A service ecosystems perspective" de Kaisa Koskela-Huotari.

Dez anos de exportações - uma perspectiva

Olhar assim para os números acerca da evolução das exportações em 10 anos provoca surpresas, positivas e negativas.

Sectores sexy nos media (e isto não tem nada a ver com o calçado) com crescimento mais baixos, e sectores que passam fora do radar dos títulos com desempenhos notáveis.