"argue for clarity about the most important choices"

"For more established companies, the challenge is different. They risk having their choices become stuck in whatever they have been doing all along regardless of how customers, competitors, technology, or regulation evolves. This is both the effect and cause of a kind of corporate myopia wherein opportunities and imperatives to innovate are missed, and a form of corporate drift in which the company’s essential strategy choices passively evolve without forethought and deliberation. The myopia makes a company fall behind in an ever-changing world, and the drift produces a lack of clarity in the organization. Together, they inevitably make execution an exercise of running harder to stay in the same place. But having a combination of stated and working choices solves this problem, because the former forces subconscious strategy to the surface, and the latter shines a light on those issues and opportunities that require strategic innovation.
.
Your leader resists strategy because he fears he’ll lose the flexibility to change his mind, and the company’s direction, if warranted by new developments. Your solution is to argue for clarity about the most important choices that will guide the company’s priorities, lower-level decisions, and actions — and for clarity on the issues and opportunities that he and his team should be working on in order to keep pace with an always-changing world. With this understanding, the company is both anticipating and responding to how its direction should evolve in a deliberate way. That’s how you get the benefits of having both a decisive and flexible strategy without having to utter the word to someone who cannot stomach it."

Trecho retirado de "Strategy Talk: Can Strategy Be Decisive and Flexible?"

Cuidado com as exportações

Recordar "Acerca do perfil de exportações de 2017" com:

Em Novembro passado, olhando para o acumulado de 2017 até Setembro enunciava a minha preocupação com o facto do peso do Parcial I ter caído:

"Uma pena o "Parcial I" ter perdido peso naquele "Total" da figura, uma evolução que não via há muito tempo."

Agora, olhando para o acumulado das exportações de 2018 até Maio, é simplesmente impressionante a evolução do Parcial I:

O crescimento dos sectores que acompanho é cerca de 64% do que foi em 2017 e passou a ser quase todo da responsabilidade do Parcial II e aqui da responsabilidade das exportações de automóveis. O Parcial I anda nos 10,4%!!! Terrível para quem em 2016 escreveu isto.

Um milhão de euros exportado por 10 PME tem um impacte e um destino muito diferente de um milhão de euros exportado por uma empresa grande.

O inimigo do futuro

"He supports the idea that the world is broadly healthier, better educated and happier. But he argues this has only come about because of the activism of the discontented. His stark criticisms serve a higher purpose. “At every increment of improvement in human history somebody got pissed off and said, ‘This can be better, this must be better’. To be an optimist has to mean being a critic. The enemy of the future is not the pessimist but the complacent person.”

Trecho retirado de "Jaron Lanier on fighting Big Tech’s ‘manipulation engine’"

Tracção para a loja online

"What do 93 percent of the largest online retailers in Germany have in common? They all have a digital corporate magazine. In Germany, 28 of the 30 biggest online stores have at least one company magazine.
...
The German digital marketing agency Seokratie looked at the 30 most successful online shops in Germany to determine how many of them runs a company magazine, which it described as something that’s digitally available, with regular editorial content that’s separated from the home page, no PR messages and written in German.
...
Seokratie found out that if an online shop has several magazines, these are also aimed at different target groups."

E a sua empresa, como cria tracção para a loja online?

Trechos retirados de "Most online shops in Germany have a digital magazine"

Cuidado com a absolutização do que a nossa empresa produz (parte II)

Há dias sublinhei:

"Too often solutions are limited to ideas that can easily be shown to incrementally solve existing business goals. Crazy ideas, projects, or initiatives that don’t fit into the mold get rejected."

Domingo, ao ler "Trabalhadores “robot” nas fábricas da VW" e ao ver este vídeo:

"Para minimizar esta situação, a Volkswagen está a recorrer a exoesqueletos robóticos para suportar uma boa parte do esforço, poupando o físico dos funcionários. Não se trata de transformar os trabalhadores em verdadeiros “robocops”, mas tão só de lhes colocar à disposição uma estrutura articulada e assistida, que numa primeira fase facilite as operações realizadas com os braços em posição mais elevada."

Recordei esta figura daqui:

e previsões feitas nos últimos anos aqui no blogue:

• Isto é Mongo! Código na agricultura mas bottom-bottom: a democratização do código (Abril de 2016) onde dá para relacionar a citação inicial lá de cima, com o estar tão concentrado no produto que se perde a oportunidade de continuar a progredir.

"Há coisa de 1/2 anos li um artigo em que um técnico de uma empresa sueca líder no seu sector, a Permobil, discorria sobre as inovações que tinham em curso. Pensei o quão limitados e concentrados nas cadeiras de rodas estavam, na altura começava a ver os artigos sobre experiências com exoesqueletos, os artigos sobre drones controlados pelo pensamento, sobre os smartfones para os paralisados, sobre as aplicações para educar, treinar, ensinar, crianças especiais."

• Um exemplo de miopia na vida real (Setembro de 2016)
• Cuidado com a absolutização do que a nossa empresa produz (Março de 2017)

BTW, a velhice nunca mais será a mesma.

"Once you start looking for metaphorical cheap shower curtains, they're everywhere"

As cortinas de chuveiro são bons fomentadores de reflexão.

Recordo de Domingo último "Avoid moving from ‘Puzzle solvers’ to ‘number crunchers’". Depois, recomendo a leitura de "Cheap shower curtains":

"The unskilled cost accountant might suggest you outfit your new hotel with cheap shower curtains. After all, if you save $50 a room and have 200 rooms, pretty soon, we're talking real money.
.
On the other hand, experience will demonstrate that cheap shower curtains let the water out, causing a minor flood, every day, room after room. And they wear out faster. Cheap shower curtains aren't actually cheap.
.
Productivity pays for itself.
.
Once you start looking for metaphorical cheap shower curtains, they're everywhere."

O que acham que vai voltar a acontecer?

Sugestão: colocar estes ingredientes numa panela,

• La fin du crédit gratuit sera douloureuse
• Pode alguém com medo proteger-nos do que aí vem? (acerca do que nos falta)
• Os recursos estratégicos do Estado (acerca do que temos em demasia, sacerdotes do deus-estado)

mexer muito bem, dar tempo ao tempo e ... voilá!

O que acham que vai voltar a acontecer?

Qual é a teoria da conspiração?

Ao ler "That Noise You Hear Is the Sound of Globalization Going Into Reverse" nasceu em mim uma teoria da conspiração.

Há muito neste blogue que se fala do refluxo da maré da globalização e da reindustrialização da Europa. Fenómeno que represento metaforicamente com uma imagem da Torre de Babel. Por exemplo:

• "Exige um pouco mais de sofisticação intelectual do que ir comprá-la simplesmente ao supermercado" (Dezembro de 2010)
• Pós pico da globalização... (Abril de 2011)
• A reindustrialização em curso (Dezembro de 2012)
• Passamos ao nível seguinte do jogo? (Fevereiro de 2015)
• Globalização, uma maré a recuar (Abril de 2015)
• "o impacte da "reversão" da maré da globalização" (Setembro de 2016)
• Turn, turn, turn (Novembro de 2016)
• "Estou otimista ... é fantástico." (Novembro de 2016) [onde escrevi: BTW, tenho uma teoria da conspiração acerca da globalização. A globalização está a recuar, não por causa de barreiras alfandegárias mas por causa de coisas que falo aqui no blogue: rapidez, flexibilidade, interacção, co-criação, salários na China, Evangelho do valor, ... Quem perde com o retrocesso da globalização? As empresas grandes, as marcas grandes (ver o marcador hollowing), quando os Trumps da direita e da esquerda agora vêm falar dos perigos da globalização desconfio que andam a tramar algo para impedir a hemorragia das empresas grandes nem que para isso tenham de tramar as PME deste mundo.]
• Em curso o fim da globalização (Maio de 2017)

E nunca esquecer uma especulação feita aqui em Agosto de 2008.

Qual é a teoria da conspiração?

10 anos depois do pico da globalização, 10 anos depois da maré ter mudado, 10 anos depois de se começar a falar em reindustrialização do Ocidente é que se inicia uma guerra de taxas alfandegárias? Quem é que tem a ganhar com isso?

As empresas que foram para a China mantiveram-se em jogo com base no preço/custo e nunca foram obrigadas, ou sentiram necessidade de um esforço de subida na escala de valor. Agora que o modelo baseado na China deixa de ser viável até para essas empresas grandes, elas percebem que não têm ADN competitivo para outra forma de competição. Por isso, sentem que precisam de tempo para arranjar uma alternativa. Nada que uma mão amiga no poder político não possa fazer: criar uma barreira alfandegária protectora.

Quem serão os principais prejudicados? 

Os consumidores e ... as empresas que nunca embarcaram na produção na China e, por isso, tiveram de se adaptar ao mundo competitivo tendo em conta outros factores que não o preço.

BTW, o título do Wall Street Journal é um bom sinal da cegueira em que o mainstream financeiro vive face à economia real. Até parece que a globalização só agora vai ser revertida. Come on!

"Avoid moving from ‘Puzzle solvers’ to ‘number crunchers’"

"In the early stage of any JTBD uncover, managers are puzzle solvers: they work hard on uncovering the richness of it. But when they start having operational data (volume, profitability…) about products, clients, channels, etc. they start thinking about how to sell more products to existing customers. And they lose focus. They forget the reason that brought them success in the first place."

Trecho retirado de "10 takeaways from Christensen’s latest book"

"a natural fit for their agile development philosophies"

"Domestic manufacturing enables companies like Burrow and Chapter 3 to continually refine their designs and ramp production up and down in response to customer feedback. They can also ship directly to consumers, reducing delivery times.
...
“[Burrow] can send over an idea to me or my husband, and sometimes in the same day we can mock up a modification of something,” Schock says. “We can get the email, walk downstairs to the plant, and pull it together.”
.
She adds: “The consumer, if they want more choices, you’re going to need to have shorter lead times and smaller quantities. Importing doesn’t adhere to those things.”
...
he and others are discovering that domestic manufacturing is a natural fit for their agile development philosophies. “I’ve made stuff in China, it’s a huge pain in the ass. You can’t be very reactive in your iteration process, and there are high minimum order quantities,” Kan says. “The cool thing about the internet is that you can make changes very quickly. Taking some of that to the physical goods world is really good.”"

Demoram tanto a perceber isto?

Trechos retirados de "From Mexico To Mississippi: Why This Sofa Startup Is Now “Made In The USA”"

Sintomas

Sintomas de como as coisas estão a mudar, o corte com o século XX que Mongo nos traz:

• Theories of the Firm;
• Who Killed the GE Model?

O aumento da customização, da diversidade:

• Inspired By Beer, A Chicago Entrepreneur Is Bringing Coffee Drinkers A Choice In Brews
• A alteração do paradigma do trabalho - The modern workforce is freelance–cities should get ready

Começa hoje!

O maior espectáculo desportivo em solo europeu.

Bom título "Le Tour de Froome"

Blahblah economia do mar blahblah

Recordar Outubro de 2012 e "Os portugueses esperam demasiado do seu governo" e as ilusões de um anónimo engenheiro da província em Março de 2012:

"O anónimo engenheiro da província pensava, na sua ignorância e ingenuidade, que o dia seguinte constrói-se mais depressa quando o Estado sai da frente, não empecilha, não chateia, não atrasa, não privilegia, não orienta... o diletante lisboeta que acabou de saltar da carruagem das PPPs quer apanhar agora a carruagem da Economia do Mar, ou a da ligação ferroviária de mercadorias, ou a da energia das ondas, ou um cluster criado em laboratório (mesas de almoço) de algum banco de algum "puppet maker"?"

2012 foi um ano muito "Economia do Mar", em Outubro escrevi "Não atravessarão o Jordão", mas 2015 também:

"E quando oiço falar na "Economia do Mar" começo logo a pensar em muitos macacos a voar com dinheiro impostado aos contribuintes actuais e, sobretudo, futuros."

Só falta recordar os Prós e Contras sobre o tema... ainda há dias ia a conduzir e ri-me até mais não, depois chorei, quando ouvi na rádio que Miguel Cadilhe ia botar faladura nas jornadas par(a)lamentares do PSD sobre como contrariar a desertificação do interior, quase ao nível de pôr Mira Amaral a falar empreendedorismo, ou de pôr Cravinho a falar sobre o retorno das SCUTs.

Agora leiam isto se faz favor:

"Something odd has happened to Iceland’s fisheries. In Icelandic waters, cod numbers have hit a historic high. But rather than taking advantage of this bountiful fishing opportunity, the annual catch has decreased by 45 percent since 1981. Over the same period, the total export value of Icelandic cod products has increased by more than 100 percent. The cause of this peculiar and seemingly contradictory trend is partly explained by Iceland’s Ocean Cluster House or what is commonly referred to as the “Silicon Valley of White Fish.”
...
In other words, they are businesses developing ideas that use fish meat, oil, skin, bones and intestines, to draw value out of produce that would otherwise be trashed. “From one cod we can maybe get $12 for the fillet. But if we use the whole round we can get $3,500 for each cod,” explains Ocean Cluster’s founder, Thor Sigfusson. The “value-added approach challenges the notion that a fish’s primary purpose is a fillet,” he notes."

 Trechos retirados de "Icelanders Turn $12 Cod into $3,500 Worth of Products"

É triste ...

É triste não fazer parte do rebanho e saber para onde vamos, com muita antecedência. Recordo a brilhante afirmação do ICI-man (Sir John Harvey-Jones):

"Planning is an unnatural process; it is much more fun to do something. And the nicest thing about not planning is that failure comes as a complete surprise rather than being preceded by a period of worry and depression." [BTW, olhar para o título do postal de Maio de 2009]

Em, "Suspenso no Tempo (II)", leio:

"Se os números não estiverem completamente errados, Portugal terá sido ultrapassado em 2018 pelos países do Alargamento. República Checa, Eslovénia, Eslováquia, repúblicas Bálticas têm agora um rendimento per capita superior ao português. Não tinham há quinze anos. E eram países significativamente mais atrasados que Portugal há trinta anos. Mas as más notícias não param. Portugal desceu de 84% em 1999 para 78% do rendimento per capita europeu em 2018. Portugal está hoje mais distante da média europeia do que em 1999. E ainda há mais. Olhando os países que ainda estão atrás de Portugal em 2018, se as trajetórias de crescimento não forem significativamente alteradas, Croácia, Hungria e Polónia ultrapassarão Portugal na próxima década. Quer isso dizer que, dentro de dez anos, com enorme probabilidade, apenas a Bulgária e a Roménia serão mais pobres que Portugal." 

Ah! A caminho da Sildávia do Ocidente:

• A caminho da Sildávia do Ocidente (Junho de 2008)
• Ah! Ainda e sempre a Sildávia. (Maio de 2018)

Recordo também, "Frases de ministro quase sempre envelhecem mal" (Março de 2018):

"As principais economias da União Europeia crescem sempre menos que as economias da Europa de Leste. Assim, vamos paulatinamente sendo ultrapassados na criação de riqueza per capita por esses países, enquanto que por cá, governos de esquerda e de direita se enganam, e enganam-nos, ao compararem o crescimento do PIB com a média da União Europeia."

BTW, e mesmo a Roménia ...

impressionante, PIB a crescer mais de 8,6% na Roménia https://t.co/oo7fsBLYQ5 até a Áustria cresce mais q Portugal

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) November 14, 2017

Acerca do impacte da China

Ler:

"The increased range and quality of China's exports is a major ongoing development in the international economy with potentially far-reaching e􏰁ects. In this paper, we examine the impact of the China's integration in international trade in the Portuguese labour market. On top of the direct e􏰁ffects of increased imports from China studied in previous research, we focus on the indirect labour market e􏰁ffects stemming from increased export competition in third markets. Our 􏰄findings, based on matched employer-employee data in the 1991-2008 period, indicate that workers' earnings and employment are signi􏰄cantly negatively affected 􏰁 by China's competition, but only through the indirect 'market-stealing' channel."

 E recordar:

• Muito chinfrim, muita polémica, muita demagogia, muita gritaria... poucos factos, menos seriedade. (Setembro de 2010)
• It's not the euro, stupid! (parte IV) (Dezembro de 2011)
• A culpa é do euro? (Agosto de 2013)
• O século XX continua por cá (parte II) (Julho de 2017)

Trecho retirado de "Collateral Damage? Labour Market E􏰁ects of Competing with China 􏰀 at Home and Abroad"

"Imagination is greater than knowledge."

"That experience taught me the supreme importance of imagination over memory. If people live out of their memory, they're bound to the past. If they live out of imagination, they create opportunity. Peter Drucker said that effective executives are opportunity-minded; ineffective executives are problem-minded. Effective executives focus on the future. Ineffective executives focus on the past; in fact, they see the present through the past; effective executives see the present through the future. Imagination is more powerful and significant than memory. As Einstein said, "Imagination is greater than knowledge.""

O último sublinhado fez-me recuar à conversa oxigenadora que tive ao almoço esta semana. O meu parceiro contava-me, algo horrorizado, os relatos que a filha faz do ensino superior como sintomas de um apodrecimento sistémico do mesmo.

Professores que lêem acetatos, professores sem experiência de vida fora da academia, professores que repetem ano após ano os testes que dão, professores com 5 alunos nas aulas quando têm mais de 100 inscritos na pauta. Professores perdidos no tempo e sem capacidade ou vontade de comunicar. Interrogamos-nos sobre o papel, sobre a importância do ensino superior hoje, num tempo em que o conhecimento está por todo o lado. Interrogamos-nos sobre a incapacidade do sistema se regenerar porque a sua razão de ser são os funcionários, recordei o ministro da Saúde há tempos que disse que o SNS existia para os funcionários e recordei esta estória de 2016:

"Parei, invadido pelo pensamento sobre a resistência à mudança que os incumbentes levantarão... médicos, farmacêuticos, empresas produtoras de medicamentos, políticos que dependem destes três universos. Então, veio-me à mente a conversa deste mês de Agosto com estudante da FCUP do curso de Ciências de Computação. Segundo ele, o curso foi objecto de reformulação há dois anos. No entanto, continua a não dar toda uma série de linguagens de programação que as empresas precisam, mas que os professores não dominam, nem têm motivação para aprender (esse estudante passou parte do mês de Agosto a estudar programação para Android nos cursos da Udacity).
.
Se a FCUP optasse por contratar professores para darem aulas sobre essas linguagens os professores incumbentes sofreriam.
.
Para que existe mesmo uma organização pública?"

Acabámos por concluir que o mal do apodrecimento da universidade já não é assim tão problemático precisamente porque hoje em dia o conhecimento está muito mais acessível e distribuído. Foi então que chamei a atenção para este texto, "Why Unschoolers Grow Up to Be Entrepreneurs":

"It shouldn’t be surprising to learn that many unschoolers become entrepreneurs. Able to grow up free from a coercive classroom or traditional school-at-home environment, unschoolers nurture interests and passions that may sprout into full-fledged careers. Their creativity and curiosity remain intact, uncorrupted by a mass education system intent on order and conformity. Their energy and exuberance, while a liability in school, are supported with unschooling, fostering the stamina necessary to successfully bring a business idea to market. Like entrepreneurship, unschooling challenges what is for what could be."

Imaginação, muito mais poderosa que o conhecimento... como não recordar o herói da minha juventude, MacGyver, e a sua frase, "Well, I say we trust our instincts—go with our gut. You can't program that. That's our edge.""

Trecho retirado de "Currents in the Stream"

"Many of today’s biggest companies will no longer exist in 10 years"

"Many of today’s biggest companies will no longer exist in 10 years. Why? Because rapidly emerging new technologies will make the problems they’ve spent their history solving obsolete.
.
Too often solutions are limited to ideas that can easily be shown to incrementally solve existing business goals. Crazy ideas, projects, or initiatives that don’t fit into the mold get rejected. While this keeps the company focused and efficient, it’s exactly what leads to disruption. Because world-changing ideas are crazy—until they are a massive breakthrough."

Lembrei-me logo desta estória, "Mongo a bater à porta. Tão bom!!!":

Trecho retirad de "How to Leverage the Power of Science Fiction for Exponential Innovation"

O Brexit e as suas marcas

O Rui Moreira chamou-me a atenção para este texto "Brexit deal or no deal, protect your trademarks now".

Se calhar isto não passa de um engodo para levar as empresas a registar as marcas no Reino Unido, ou não.

"If no deal is reached, then from 30 March 2019 brand owners will no longer have protection in the UK. This will leave them vulnerable to third parties or trademark trolls – or both – that apply to register UK marks for brands. They will have to rely on earlier use in the UK to prevent the “trademark trolls” succeeding with their applications for registration. Proving an unregistered right is much harder than relying on a registered right."

Veja no caso da sua empresa se há alguma coisa a considerar, ou não.

"portray a wide array of causes as a causal network"

Em Junho de 2009 no postal "Fazer a mudança acontecer (parte VI e meio)" escrevi:

"Durante muitos anos utilizei o diagrama de causa-efeito para organizar, para arrumar as diferentes causas que podem estar na origem de um dado efeito.
.
Continuo a usá-lo para problemas de menor dimensão.
.
Contudo, para problemas mais complexos, considero a sua abordagem cada vez mais "perigosa" porque veícula uma visão demasiado linear do mundo."

Em Julho de 2018, leio o artigo "Explaining Explanation, Part 3: The Causal Landscape", publicado por IEEE Computer Society em IEEE Intelligent Systems em Março/Abril de 2018, onde encontro:

"The concept is to portray a wide array of causes as a causal network, to help people escape from their single-cause, determinate mindset, but then to highlight a smaller number of causes that matter the most and that suggest viable courses of action. These are the causes that: (a) contributed most heavily to the effect (if they hadn’t occurred, neither would the effect), and (b) are the easiest to negate or mitigate.
.
When we want to take steps to prevent an adverse event, the highlighted nodes in a causal network are the places to start exploring.
.
The causal landscape’s two-step method highlights the few causes worth addressing through: their impact score, which reflects how much each cause influenced the effect; and their reversibility score, which reflects the ease of eliminating that cause. The causes that had the strongest impact and are the easiest to reverse are the ones that offer the greatest potential to prevent future accidents or adverse events.
The causal landscape is a hybrid explanatory form that attempts to get the best of both worlds—both triggering and enabling causes. It portrays the complex range and interconnection of causes and identifies a few of the most important ones. Without reducing some of the complexity, we’d be confused about how to act."

"And that experience will need to be fundamentally human"

"today’s most successful brands treat their customers as users, not buyers. They make life easier. They build relationships with their customers. They inspire loyalty and advocacy, not just one-time sales.
.
These companies craft their brand experience as a designer would, thinking about every touchpoint — before, during, and after the purchase — from the user’s point of view.
...
Because they view the shopping experience from your perspective, they’re able to deliver an optimal mix of products, services, and support for each channel.
...
Consumers want in-person experiences — in fact, online retailers that open brick-and-mortar locations report five- to eight-fold increase in sales. Brands that use physical space to its full advantage understand how to pamper their customers with personal service that inspires loyalty and appeals to shoppers’ emotions.
...
Mindsets are difficult to change, but a shift is both necessary and urgent in the case of retail. Our expectations as consumers will continue to rise, and businesses will need to deliver at every turn. It won’t be enough to adopt flashy new technologies or invest in buzzy activations. Retailers will need to understand how every touchpoint with their brand contributes to a holistic experience. And that experience will need to be fundamentally human."

Trechos retirados de "From Muji to Ikea: Why the best retailers think like UX designers"

Mais outro exemplo: Provinciano, mas muito à frente (parte II)

Parte I.

Vai continuar a aumentar a frequência com que o tema vai ser objecto de conversa. O retorno do artesão e da arte casados com a tecnologia.

BTW, reparar nesta foto no final da página:

Fez-me regressar a Julho de 2016 e a uma pergunta que coloquei a empresários do calçado: "Não receiam que um dia um par de sapatos possa ser feito e vendido por um trabalhador a partir de casa?" É o que está a acontecer cada vez mais (recordar o lago de nenúfares)

"Craftsmen like Grasso, who is now in his 80s, have remained out of the limelight for decades, as globalisation has put the emphasis firmly on brand names and industrialised manufacturing. But an exhibition opening in Venice in September, at the Fondazione Giorgio Cini on the island of San Giorgio Maggiore, seeks to turn the spotlight back on European craftsmanship and its tradition of master craftsmen.
...
he believes the robotics revolution has a silver lining for traditional manufacturing. “There will be a premium on the human eye and hand. And Europe has got that,” he says."

Um sério risco da nata do online não ser para a fábrica, mas para o operário-artesão contratado directamente pelo vendedor online.

Trecho retirado de "Homo Faber: the master craftsman versus the machine"

"Identify your core market of primary customers" (parte II)

E em alinhamento com a importância da noção de cliente-alvo, "Identify your core market of primary customers", este texto, "NBA players love this shoe brand so much, they just bankrolled it":

"The brand, launched by a husband-and-wife team from Utah, creates twists on classic men’s shoes, like oxfords made of interesting materials, wools mixed with leathers, and boots with woven designs. While most startups play it safe with their first collections, Taft co-founder Kory Stevens believes the key to the brand’s success has been to stand out. “My thinking was, if we don’t create designs that really pop online, we’re just going to fade into oblivion,” he tells me. “The strategy worked. A certain type of customer really gravitated to this look, and it started spreading virally.”"

"Identify your core market of primary customers"

Uma mensagem ainda mais antiga que este blogue. Um marcador dos primeiros tempos: Julho de 2007; Março de 2008:

“For firms that have truly made the shift to the customer-driven mindset, here are some of the practices that tend to emerge.
.
1. Target. Identify your core market of primary customers. Delighting this group is important so that you have a resilient customer base. Trying to satisfy everyone at the outset practically guarantees average products and services that will not delight anyone. Careful choices need to be made in terms of where to put one’s efforts."

Como eu gosto da imagem deste postal de 2008:

Excerto de: Stephen Denning. “The Age of Agile”

Compreender o contexto

Quem trabalha com PME exportadoras e trabalha a ISO 9001 tem obrigação de chamar a atenção das empresas para estas questões, "Guerra arancelaria: el textil en la trinchera":

"El viernes, nueve categorías de productos textiles procedentes de Estados Unidos comenzaron a pagar el 25% de aranceles al llegar a suelo europeo, situación que está generando cierta incertidumbre en la industria de la Unión Europea, por saber cómo responderá el presidente Donald Trump a esta medida.
...
De hecho, China ya gravó con aranceles del 25% a 659 productos procedentes de Estados Unidos, entre esos el algodón."

Hollowing e radio clube

Do texto "Hollow inside" sublinho:

"When we bring a brand to the world, it’s rare indeed that people are okay with it having nothing inside. The wrapper matters, but so does the experience within."

E recordo que desde Novembro de 2010 uso o termo "hollowing" que partir de Agosto de 2011 passou a ser um marcador.

"Aquilo a que assistimos são as consequências do esvaziamento da diferenciação dos produtos. Ficou a marca, mas o produto sobre o qual a marca assentava... está igual ao da marca do Pingo Doce..."

E desde Julho de 2011 que também uso o marcador radio clube:

"As marcas fogem à matematização... mas não as marcas ôcas, porque se tornaram ôcas, porque se radioclubeportuguisaram, e já só são um nome, uma carcaça exterior."

Quantas variantes dum produto?

Um tema que deve interessar a quem se preocupa com posicionamento, proposta de valor e perceber o cliente-alvo:

"Consumers almost always tell researchers that they prefer to have many versions of a product from which to choose. But, in fact, consumers’ perceptions of how many choices they prefer change depending on whether they intend to use an item for pleasure or to meet a functional need. (Think of a swimsuit desired for beachwear versus swimming laps.) For retailers, that difference has big implications for the problem of assortment — how many variations of a single product to offer.
.
Consumers motivated by pleasure believe that what pleases them differs greatly from what pleases most other people. They will therefore prefer a large assortment. But when seeking to meet a utilitarian need with the same product, they are less inclined to see their preferences as being greatly different from those of other people. They will then be satisfied by a smaller assortment from which to choose."

O texto competo pode ser encontrado em "How Many Versions of a Product Do Consumers Really Want?"

Rumo ao socialismo

Ontem fui reler umas páginas de "Inovação e Gestão" de Peter Drucker (neste postal de 2006 pode ver-se como foi um livro importante para mim) e choquei contra este trecho:

"A actividade empresarial assenta numa teoria económica e social. Essa teoria encara a mudança como algo normal e até saudável. E crê que a principal tarefa da sociedade - e especialmente da economia - é fazer-se algo diferente e não fazer-se algo melhor do que aquilo que já foi feito ... o empresário perturba e desorganiza."

E fiquei a pensar como neste país de incumbentes ... pensando melhor o mal não é luso, está a generalizar-se, como neste mundo há cada vez mais empresários preocupados em manter o status quo, que querem no fundo ser funcionários públicos encapotados, por exemplo, aqui.

"porque o mundo está a mudar "

Interessante:

"No âmbito desta aposta nas exportações, a AORP acaba de lançar uma nova campanha de promoção internacional da joalharia portuguesa - intitulada "Portuguese Jewellery À La Carte" -- cujo objetivo é "criar um formato de promoção paralelo ao das feiras", mais "intimista", e através do qual "se consegue transmitir mais eficazmente a essência e o universo de valores que distinguem a joalharia portuguesa, como a manualidade".
...
Segundo Fátima Santos, "a China revelou-se interessante porque, apesar daqueles chavões de produto massificado, de copiadores e de baixo preço e baixa qualidade, o setor está a fazer vendas para galerias e lojas de posicionamento muito elevado de Xangai e da China continental, que procuram um produto de excelência e encontram-no no mercado português".
.
Os planos da associação passam depois por replicar este modelo em França, um dos principais mercados de exportação do setor, nos EUA (onde tem também em curso "uma investida interessante"), na Holanda e em Espanha.
.
"Sentimos que há esta necessidade porque o mundo está a mudar e as feiras cada vez mais resultam menos. São momentos mais difíceis, que requerem investimentos muito grandes e têm uma lógica mais passiva, de esperar pelo contacto do comprador, e muitas vezes o sucesso de uma empresa é determinado por um comprador que conseguiu seduzir num ambiente mais intimista através de uma abordagem direta ao consumidor final", afirmou a responsável."

Trechos retirados de "Exportações portuguesas de ourivesaria e joalharia atingem os 100 ME em 2017"

A evolução do papel da loja física

O amigo Rui Moreira fez-me chegar este artigo "La jefa de venta ‘online’ de Mango: “En las tiendas han de pasar cosas, no pueden seguir igual otros 100 años”" de onde sublinho:

"P. Según un estudio, las mujeres prefieren la tienda física por probar la prenda y apreciar su calidad.
.
R. No lo he leído, pero en Europa lo veo difícil, quizá en España... La tendencia dice lo contrario. La discusión hoy en día es cuánto, qué porcentaje de la venta de moda será online. Algunos apuestan por un 30%, otros por un 50%...
.
P. Ahora mismo en España estamos en un 4-5%. Usted, ¿qué prevé?
.
R. Dependerá de cómo asignemos la venta. La venta, ¿qué es? ¿La transacción? Si al final se paga todo con móvil, ¿toda la venta será online? Pero te aseguro que ese 5% no se va a quedar ahí. Yo calculo que España llegará en breve al 20-30%, y los más maduros, 50%.
.
P. ¿Y la tienda?
.
R. Va a seguir existiendo, claro que sí. Otra cosa es que la función de la tienda a lo mejor ha de ser diferente. Ahí estamos todos trabajando. En qué te puedo ofrecer para que salgas de la comodidad de tu casa y vengas a nuestras tiendas. Probablemente irá por el entorno de lo social, de lo sensorial... Han de suceder cosas. No podemos pretender que las tiendas vuelvan a estar 100 años más igual. Apple, por ejemplo, está haciendo cosas en ese sentido. En sus tiendas pasan cosas y no están relacionadas con la transacción pura y dura."

Difícil para muita gente abandonar a postura tradicional: eu é que sei o que é que os clientes querem.

Como não recordar a Papelaria Fernandes.

"highly focused on serving a particular kind of customer"

“The decline of brands could be devastating for mass-market national media, especially television. Big-store retailers, whether Walmart or Safeway or Best Buy, will see traffic dwindle as more purchases move online and to AI-driven subscription services. [Moi ici: Ler isto]
.
In short, the consumer experience built on scale over the past century is about to get disassembled and unscaled. The advantages of big are waning. In this new era small, focused companies that put the consumer at the center will beat big, mass-market operations most of the time.
...
The great opportunities in the consumer market will revolve around giving every individual exactly what he wants, when he wants it. It reflects the constant theme in unscaling: scaled-up, mass-market products have long made us conform to them, but unscaled products and services conform to us. They will seem like they are built just for each one of us—customization built with automation. Over the next decade we’ll see innovators transform one kind of product after another, moving them from mass markets to markets of one. [Moi ici: Recordar isto]
...
UNBUNDLING THE GIANTS: Consumer product companies from P&G to Nestlé to Samsung were built on the mass market. A hit product was one that appealed to the greatest number of people—one size fits most. But mass-market products are a compromise for most consumers. They’re not exactly what we might want, but it’s good enough and easily available. And that leaves an opening for small, new companies that can use technology to create products that hold great appeal for narrow slices of the consumer market—consumers who will feel like that product was created especially for them.
...
And these new companies will have the opportunity to rebundle groups of narrow-market products into the new P&Gs, as we’re seeing with Honest. These new companies might get big, but they will always be more of a collection of businesses highly focused on serving a particular kind of customer.”

Excerto de: Taneja, Hemant,Maney, Kevin. “Unscaled”

Mais outro exemplo: Provinciano, mas muito à frente

Há anos que escrevo sobre o futuro do trabalho, sobretudo acerca do fim do emprego estabelecido como paradigma pelo século XX, e que a maioria acredita ser algo milenar, algo eterno. Sobretudo, acerca da ascensão do artesão, do artesão apoiado na tecnologia e dedicado à criação de arte e a trabalhar em co-criação com os seus clientes.

Por isso, isto faz todo o sentido, "(Re)naissance de l’Homo Faber : le travailleur de demain sera un artiste ou un artisan rompu aux nouvelles technologies":

"Les sociétés européennes ont toujours tenu pour acquis que la transmission de compétences se ferait de génération en génération : le développement d’un talent d’artiste ou d’artisan se faisait par les enseignements des maîtres précédents. On pourrait penser que ce paradigme a disparu avec la société industrielle, mais ce serait faux : l’avenir du travail pourrait bien revenir aux fondamentaux même de l’histoire du travail, et ce grâce à nos nouvelles technologies. [Moi ici: Tenho escrito sobre isto vezes sem conta, o regresso ao trabalho pré-Revolução Industrial, cooperativas de artesãos]
...
La fabrication numérique assistée par ordinateur fonctionne différemment. Elle ne requiert aucun moule et ne nécessite donc pas de répéter une même forme indéfiniment. Chaque pièce peut-être unique, telle une œuvre d’art. Là où les problématiques d’espace et de quantité dominaient le monde industriel, aujourd’hui, un petit atelier ou un studio peuvent concurrencer une grande usine. La production ne se résume plus à une question de volume.
...
L’émergence d’une économie sans échelle, une économie à taille humaine.
Dans ce nouvel environnement, le plus grand défi pour un travailleur est de penser en artiste tout en exploitant les possibilités des nouvelles technologies. [Moi ici: Outro tema tipo deste blogue, a ascensão da arte]
...
C’est la raison pour laquelle l’apprentissage doit évoluer : il ne s’agit plus de commencer par se former pour ensuite trouver un travail correspondant, mais bien de travailler d’abord, pour trouver par la suite les enseignements qui nous correspondent. [Moi ici: Tão bom!!! A ascensão da arte dita que tudo comece pelo fuçar, pela experimentação - "Não começamos a fazer arte assim que nos tornamos artistas. Ou seja, não é por sermos artistas que fazemos arte, é por fazermos arte que nos tornamos artistas."] Que les nouvelles technologies privent leurs utilisateurs de formations pratiques serait un désastre.
.
Le futur du travail que dessinent ces nouvelles technologies, c’est celui de « l’Homo Faber » : un homme qui sera son propre créateur, qui se réalisera à travers les gestes  du quotidien. Le travail permet d’écrire une histoire dans laquelle chaque projet est un chapitre de vie qui s’additionne aux autres et de ce point de vue, chacun pourra constater que sa vie est plus qu’une série aléatoire de jobs déconnectés – y compris pour les petits boulots rémunérés à la tâche. [Moi ici: Como não recordar o recente "Aproveitei o meu percurso"] 

Para reflexão séria - é a vida!

Faz hoje 8 dias que os meus amigos da Olifel me convidaram para dizer umas palavras sobre a Indústria 4.0 no âmbito do lançamento do novo Visualgest

Nesse mesmo evento tive oportunidade de ouvir o presidente da câmara de Felgueiras dizer, sem papas na língua, que o calçado atravessa um momento difícil, um momento de mudança.

Entretanto, os remendos feitos no tempo da troika continuam a ser desmantelados. Por exemplo "Alexandra Leitão: Mexer na idade da reforma dos professores "é um caminho possível"".

Entretanto, as empresas grandes continuam a fazer o seu trabalho de liquidar as pequenas e médias e de desertificar o interior, "Governo abre a porta a salário mínimo acima dos 600 euros".

Sabem como defendo aqui no blogue, há mais de 10 anos, que Portugal não pode competir com a China nos custos e teria de apostar nas vantagens da proximidade e rapidez (postal de 2007). Por exemplo, neste postal de 2015 apresento esta tabela para o sector do têxtil e vestuário:

Mas o mundo económico é uma continuação da biologia, um eterno subir e descer do espaço competitivo enrugado que obriga as empresas a estarem atentos às outras empresas concorrentes, aos clientes e ao habitat.

Há dias escrevi este "Desabafo", hoje olhei para estes números:

Olhem para o mapa:

Proximidade e rapidez... quanto tempo para a Roménia e Hungria ditarem cartas?

Ontem estive numa empresa que já está a competir no nível seguinte do jogo: de igual para igual com os italianos. No entanto, isso não é campeonato para empresas com muitos trabalhadores, nem é para produção em massa.

A vida não é nem justa nem injusta, nem moral nem imoral. A vida é ajusta e amoral.

Não pense que isto só acontece aos outros

A propósito de "The Risks and Costs of Cyber-Attacks" nos últimos 12 meses entre as empresas com que trabalho/trabalhei:

• uma multinacional muuuuito grande;
• uma PME com 20 trabalhadores;
• uma micro empresa com 7 trabalhadores;
• uma PME com 60 trabalhadores (em 2016)

Sofreram ataques informáticos violentos.

Não pense que isto só acontece aos outros. O que pode fazer para se proteger?

"The market is poised to take off"

"Mass customization.
This model takes product variation to the extreme. It entails creating one-off products that are precisely adjusted to the needs or whims of individual buyers—adjustments that can be carried out by simply uploading each customer’s digital file into a 3-D printer. Thanks to the efficiency and precision of digital technology, these products cost less than conventionally manufactured items but fit individuals’ specifications more exactly.
.
Mass customization is suitable for any large market in which customers are dissatisfied with standardized, conventionally produced offerings and it’s easy to collect customer information. ...
This model can rapidly and significantly affect an entire industry. With hearing aids the shift happened in a year and a half, forcing some manufacturers into bankruptcy.
.
The main competitive challenge is to reduce the cost of acquiring individual customers’ information. Hearing-aid companies first needed a scanning device that audiologists could easily use. In this case, customers were willing to go to an audiologist to be measured. In contrast, buyers of custom orthotics and insoles didn’t want to visit an expensive podiatrist to be measured. That’s why SOLS Systems, which innovated in this area, couldn’t make it on its own; it was acquired in 2017 by another footwear company, Aetrex Worldwide. But the development of smartphone apps that allow people to measure their own feet is overcoming the information-collection obstacle. And HP Inc. has devised a 3-D scanning solution, FitStation, that can be placed in stores. The market is poised to take off."

Trecho retirado de "The 3-D Printing Playbook"

"people organize their brains with conversation"

Com quem conversa sobre a estratégia da sua empresa?

"The fact is important enough to bear repeating: people organize their brains with conversation. If they don’t have anyone to tell their story to, they lose their minds. Like hoarders, they cannot unclutter themselves. The input of the community is required for the integrity of the individual psyche. To put it another way: It takes a village to organize a mind. Much of what we consider healthy mental function is the result of our ability to use the reactions of others to keep our complex selves functional. We outsource the problem of our sanity."

Ler isto e recordar de imediato Popper e Espinosa:

"Popper tinha razão ao criticar Espinosa, de que vale a liberdade de pensamento se não há com quem conversar, discutir e aprender"

Peterson, Jordan B.. 12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos

Anónimo da província, mas à frente

Volta e meia ouvimos representantes da produção - as marcas - queixarem-se do poder da distribuição grande. Aqui no blogue basta pesquisar: Centromarca (por exemplo este postal de 2009 e este outro de 2015)

Sempre aconselhei as marcas a concentrarem-se em seduzir os que mandam nos donos das prateleiras, os consumidores, através de produtos e experiências inovadoras (por exemplo este postal de 2012 e este outro de 2016)

Agora, via "Big box retailers aren’t always able to squeeze small suppliers" chego a um artigo interessante, "Are Supermarkets Squeezing Small Suppliers? Evidence from Negotiated Wholesale Prices" de Carlos Noton e Andrés Elberg, publicado por The Economic Journal. Interessa-me sobretudo o tema de como é que os pequenos produtores pode lidar com a distribuição muito concentrada:

"Combining data on prices at the retail and wholesale levels, quantities and estimated coffee production costs, we find that while the largest supplier, Nestlé, is able to secure a large fraction of the pie (around 65 per cent) the median fraction of the surplus obtained by other smaller suppliers is a sizeable 41 per cent. This indicates that it is not necessarily the case that small suppliers bargaining with large supermarket chains are doomed to earn negligible profits. Some are able to secure relatively large fractions of the surplus at stake in negotiations with retailers in spite of their small market sizes.
.
What explains the ability of small suppliers to earn such a large share of the channel surplus?
...
the researchers estimate a demand system and use these demand estimates to compute a measure of the profits that the supermarket would obtain if a given supplier’s products were taken off its shelves. The less substitutable (more differentiated) the product is, the lower the profits a supermarket would obtain in the event of a disagreement in their negotiations with the supplier. In this case, the supplier is in a better bargaining position.
...
The study finds that the relatively large share of the surplus earned by small coffee manufacturers can be rationalised by retailers’ low ‘outside options’ (disagreement profits are about 27 per cent of agreement profits). The results suggest that the most likely explanation for small manufacturers’ ability to capture value is that they provide differentiated products to a small but highly loyal group of customers."

Do artigo sublinhamos:

"Our finding that small manufacturers are able to capture a sizable share of the channel surplus runs contrary to the conventional wisdom that market size is a primary driver of bargaining outcomes. Along these lines, Nestlé’s large payoffs may not be solely driven by its market size. The strong brand loyalty of Nestlé’s customers, as supported by our demand estimations, are an important source of bargaining leverage. Thus, our evidence suggests that the most likely explanation to small manufacturers capturing value is that they provide differentiated products to small groups of loyal consumers. This finding has profound implications for the public debate on the profit-sharing between big-box retailers and small manufacturers, stressing the role played by brand loyalty as a counteracting force to market size. Recall that market size is endogenous in our model and that the exogenous sources of bargaining leverage are the size of the outside options of players and their relative firm specific characteristics such as bargaining skills, patience rate, risk aversion, etc.
...
Our results support the hypothesis that brand loyalty plays a key role in profit-sharing between retailers and manufacturers"

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte XV)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V, parte VI, parte VII, parte VIII, parte IX, parte X, parte XI, parte XII, parte XIII e parte XIV.

“By the end of the twentieth century P&G had scaled up to a behemoth, offering more than three hundred brands and raking in yearly revenue of $37 billion. P&G was one of the world’s corporate superpowers.
.
In 2016 analyst firm CB Insights published a graphic showing all the ways unscaled companies were attacking P&G. [Moi ici: Por que não gostamos de ser tratados como plancton] It looks like a swarm of bees taking down a bear. In that rendering P&G no longer appears to be a monolithic scaled-up company that has built up powerful defenses against upstarts; instead, it is depicted as a series of individual products, each vulnerable to small, unscaled, agile, AI-driven, product-focused, entrepreneurial companies.
...
CBI called the overall phenomenon the “unbundling of P&G.” It is as clear an indication as any of what big corporations face in an era that favors economies of unscale over economies of scale. Small unscaled companies can challenge every piece of a big company, often with products or services more perfectly targeted to a certain kind of buyer—products that can win against mass-appeal offerings. If unscaled competitors can lure away enough customers, economies of scale will work against the incumbents as fewer units move through expensive, large-scale factories and distribution systems—a cost burden not borne by unscaled companies.
...
Over the past hundred years, as the era of scale unfolded, small companies of course continued to exist, and many prospered even as they stayed small. Small business was the US economy’s underlying strength throughout the scaling age. In 2010, according to the US Census, the nation had about 30 million small businesses and only 18,500 companies that employed more than five hundred people.
However, in an era when economies of scale usually prevailed, when a scaled-up company competed directly against a small business, the small business usually lost. Just think of all the small-town Main Street retailers Walmart bulldozed over the past twenty-five years.
.
We will see the big-beats-small dynamic reverse as we unscale. Over the next ten to twenty years companies that relied on scale as a competitive advantage will increasingly find themselves defanged. They will be at a disadvantage against focused unscaled businesses. Large corporations won’t disappear, just as small business didn’t disappear in the last era. But the big companies that don’t change their model will see their businesses erode, and some of today’s giants will fall. [Moi ici: Nada podem fazer contra a suckiness, têm de a abandonar]”

Excerto de: Taneja, Hemant, Maney, Kevin. “Unscaled”.

Trabalho 4.0

Assim como o governo alemão lançou o tema da Indústria 4.0, também lançou recentemente um documento para discutir o Trabalho 4.0 sobre como será o trabalho do futuro.

Penso que é um documento demasiado preso ao paradigma do emprego criado pelo século XX, deixando por isso para segundo ou terceiro plano a "gig economy", mas não deixa de ser interessante:

"Whilst decent work and income remain fundamentally important, a new balance will permanently have to be struck between security and flexibility. Social security and the integration of all citizens into occupation will continue to be a key goal. However, increasingly pluralistic life and work styles call for a stronger element of self-determination and flexibility in, for example, where and when people decide to work.
...
The predominant assumption is that the witnessed transformations will not lead to mass job losses but a massive change in occupations and job profiles. This makes skills development and life-long learning even more important than it already is.
...
[Moi ici: Desconfio que muitos partidários do status quo, em ambos os lados do balcão, não vão gostar disto] Why should social security systems only kick-in when people approach the end of their working lives or risk losing their jobs? The whitepaper instead turns to an idea of preventative social policy and suggests gradually expanding the currently existing unemployment insurance into an employment insurance, with an individual right to independent vocational guidance and continuing education and training. This should also transform the agency managing unemployment into a more pro-active qualification agency.
...
Issues that will most likely become even more relevant in coming years are around working time and flexibility. Whereas a lot of employees still prefer fixed working hours and don’t want to check their emails on their weekends, more and more people value the flexibility modern forms of communication can provide and would rather leave the office early to spend time with their children and catch up on emails later in the evening.
...
Suggestions also include the establishment of long-term personal accounts that each individual sets up at the start of their working life, equipped with a basic “capital” and then earning credits through employment or individual contributions. These credits could then be used for education, skill enhancement or career breaks."

Trechos retirados de "Work 4.0: How Germany is shaping the future of work"

"True thinking is rare"

"The people I listen to need to talk, because that’s how people think. People need to think. Otherwise they wander blindly into pits. When people think, they simulate the world, and plan how to act in it. If they do a good job of simulating, they can figure out what stupid things they shouldn’t do. Then they can not do them. Then they don’t have to suffer the consequences. That’s the purpose of thinking. But we can’t do it alone. We simulate the world, and plan our actions in it. Only human beings do this. That’s how brilliant we are. We make little avatars of ourselves. We place those avatars in fictional worlds. Then we watch what happens. If our avatar thrives, then we act like he does, in the real world. Then we thrive (we hope). If our avatar fails, we don’t go there, if we have any sense. We let him die in the fictional world, so that we don’t have to really die in the present.
...
People think they think, but it’s not true. It’s mostly self-criticism that passes for thinking. True thinking is rare— just like true listening.
...
Thinking is listening to yourself. It’s difficult. To think, you have to be at least two people at the same time. Then you have to let those people disagree. Thinking is an internal dialogue between two or more different views of the world. Viewpoint One is an avatar in a simulated world. It has its own representations of past, present and future, and its own ideas about how to act. So do Viewpoints Two, and Three, and Four. Thinking is the process by which these internal avatars imagine and articulate their worlds to one another."

E pensar para além do dia a dia? E pensar para além do que se está a fazer sobre o que se deverá estar a fazer depois de amanhã? E pensar para além do apagar o fogo que irrompeu esta noite? E pensar sobre se o que se está a fazer é o que deve ser feito mesmo?

Peterson, Jordan B.. 12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos

Em vez de copiar, o truque é diferenciar

"For all the panic in the retail sector about Amazon replacing traditional sales, I don’t see the person-to-person experience going away anytime soon. With a few exceptions, people like leaving the house. They like the experience of shopping, discovery, and interacting with each other."

Quando um modelo de negócio está em ascensão, recebe a luz e a atenção dos holofotes. Por isso, toda a gente está condenada a ser bombardeada pelos media com a sua mensagem de que "a nova única via para o sucesso é esta". Os incautos caem na armadilha e tentam combater no terreno onde o concorrente é mais forte, tentam copiá-lo e tramam-se, inevitavelmente.

Nunca esquecer a frase:

"When something is commoditized, an adjacent market becomes valuable"

Em vez de copiar o truque é diferenciar. Ok, talvez tenha de começar por encolher a organização (grande exemplo da Apple de 1997), mas depois há que procurar fugir o mais possível do espaço competitivo em que o outro modelo de negócio está a ter sucesso.

Trecho retirado de "Retailers can’t out-Amazon Amazon, but they can change the rules"

"Truth makes the past truly past"

"Things fall apart. What worked yesterday will not necessarily work today. We have inherited the great machinery of state and culture from our forefathers, but they are dead, and cannot deal with the changes of the day. The living can. We can open our eyes and modify what we have where necessary and keep the machinery running smoothly. Or we can pretend that everything is alright, fail to make the necessary repairs, and then curse fate when nothing goes our way. Things fall apart: this is one of the great discoveries of humanity. And we speed the natural deterioration of great things through blindness, inaction and deceit. Without attention, culture degenerates and dies, and evil prevails.
...
To tell the truth is to bring the most habitable reality into Being. Truth builds edifices that can stand a thousand years. Truth feeds and clothes the poor, and makes nations wealthy and safe. Truth reduces the terrible complexity of a man to the simplicity of his word, so that he can become a partner, rather than an enemy. Truth makes the past truly past, and makes the best use of the future’s possibilities. [Moi ici: Como não recordar Joaquim Aguiar, enquanto a verdade for escondida estamos condenados a repetir os erros do passado... o FMI já veio 3 vezes] Truth is the ultimate, inexhaustible natural resource. It’s the light in the darkness. See the truth. Tell the truth.
...
If your life is not what it could be, try telling the truth. If you cling desperately to an ideology, or wallow in nihilism, try telling the truth. If you feel weak and rejected, and desperate, and confused, try telling the truth. In Paradise, everyone speaks the truth. That is what makes it Paradise."

Peterson, Jordan B.. "12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos"

Autenticidade

"The relentless rise of globalisation has seen our world, on and offline, become homogenised. Many local touchpoints from within our communities are disappearing. The local pub, the library, the sports club, the playing fields, these focal points and hubs for community involvement and interaction are being lost. 27 pubs close in the UK every single week.
.
For every trend, there is a counter-trend and so with globalisation swings back localisation. The reaction to globalisation has been for people to become more protective of their communities and the signifiers of ‘local’. As 'local' becomes increasingly scarce, demand for 'local' increases. A more global, connected and homogenised experience of the world means people long to discover the original and unique again. A strong sense of place gives identity and meaning to people, and offers a sense of belonging.
.
Inevitably, brands are changing their own habits and behaviours to reflect this desire. Today, many brands display a marked emphasis on provenance. Some leverage the cachet of being 'local', but many also challenge existing business models, and can become valued pillars of the community they serve."

Trecho retirado de "How brands use 'local' as a source of competitive advantage"

Acerca do bombeirismo

"Make no mistake, a firefighting mentality starts at the top of the organization. If managers see their senior leaders constantly reacting to every issue that comes across their desk, they too will adopt this behavior. Fire-fighting then becomes embedded in the culture and those that are seen as the most reactive, oddly enough, garner the greatest recognition. Managers who thoughtfully consider each issue before responding don't seem to be doing as much as the firefighters, when in reality, they're exponentially more productive.
.
"Let's think about that," is a simple but powerful phrase that can eliminate reactivity within your business and culture. The next time you receive an e-mail marked urgent or someone comes charging into your office with how to react to a competitor's activity or a new flavor-of-the-month project, reply with "Let's think about that. "Then stop and consider how this helps you achieve your goals and supports your strategic focus. To do so, determine the probability of success, impact on the business, and resources required. If after this analysis, the new task doesn't appear to support your goals and strategies, kindly inform the relevant parties that, relative to the other initiatives you're working on, this doesn't warrant resource allocation."

Recordar Setembro de 2006 e "Não adianta chorar sobre leite derramado (I)"

Trecho retirado de "The Strategic Thinking Manifesto" de Rich Horwath

Desabafo

Num desabafo pouco habitual neste blogue que se quer optimista.

Receio que Portugal no médio prazo se torne novamente num país ideal para o low-cost e as respectivas estratégias eficientistas:

#Hungary Gross Wage year-on-year at 12.6% https://t.co/pMc8dPXHyN pic.twitter.com/wCG6nfwyUw

— Trading Economics (@tEconomics) June 21, 2018

E a Roménia... meu Deus!!!

Recordo as instituições extractivas de Acemoglu e imagino 44 anos de perseguição normanda saqueadora, comparando com o tenho visto nos últimos anos sobre o alojamento local.

A tendência crescente

"The great opportunities in the consumer market will revolve around giving every individual exactly what he wants, when he wants it. It reflects the constant theme in unscaling: scaled-up, mass-market products have long made us conform to them, but unscaled products and services conform to us. They will seem like they are built just for each one of us—customization built with automation. Over the next decade we’ll see innovators transform one kind of product after another, moving them from mass markets to markets of one.
Here are some of the opportunities I see:
.
“UNBUNDLING THE GIANTS: Consumer product companies from P&G to Nestlé to Samsung were built on the mass market. A hit product was one that appealed to the greatest number of people—one size fits most. But mass-market products are a compromise for most consumers. They’re not exactly what we might want, but it’s good enough and easily available. And that leaves an opening for small, new companies that can use technology to create products that hold great appeal for narrow slices of the consumer market—consumers who will feel like that product was created especially for them.
...
OMNI-CHANNEL STORES: Through the history of civilization people have been drawn to markets. We like to shop. For many people it’s a social and entertainment experience as much as a search for a product. So no matter how much commerce moves online, it’s not likely that retail stores will disappear. But retail will certainly change. Successful retail stores will be part of a complete experience that connects online and offline shopping.
...
LOCAL FARMING: Scaled-up farming has fed the world, but it’s also given us “fresh” tomatoes that taste like plastic. A host of technologies, from AI-controlled grow lamps to IoT sensors that can constantly measure nutrients in soil, are making it feasible to profitably grow food indoors near customers—the farming equivalent of distributed manufacturing."

Excerto de: Taneja, Hemant,Maney, Kevin. “Unscaled”. iBooks.