Produtividade é muito mais do que organização

“Comparando agora Portugal com a EU-14, o deficit de produtividade aumenta à medida que os produtos ou serviços são menos básicos e é mais possível fugir ao trabalho manual através da organização. [Moi ici: Come on, é muito mais do que organização. O erro é comparar produtividades e pensar que estamos a comparar numeradores iguais e, portanto, que as diferenças decorrem de denominadores diferentes. Um erro crasso!!!] 

Por exemplo nos metais básicos a produtividade portuguesa é 74% da dinamarquesa. Mas já nos produtos fabricados de metais é 40%. [Moi ici: Quando comparamos produtos básicos, comparamos produtos suficientemente parecidos. Aqui a questão da organização, da diferença no denominador, explicará parte da diferença. Contudo, nos produtos fabricados isso já não é suficiente porque sendo os produtos diferentes, o numerador é bem diferente] 

Face à Áustria, nos metais básicos a nossa produtividade é 50% e de apenas 33% nos produtos metálicos fabricados. As percentagens repetem-se face a outros países: EUA, 42% e 31%; ou Suécia, 54% e 37%, respectivamente.

Como se repetem em outras indústrias. Por exemplo na indústria farmacêutica (onde além dos genéricos e subcontratação de fabricação de químicos, há os medicamentos de marca) a produtividade de Israel é 2,6 vezes a nossa e a da Irlanda 7,5 vezes (já corrigida para retirar o efeito das multinacionais que usam a Irlanda apenas por razes fiscais).

Ou seja, à medida que os sectores são menos intensivos em trabalho (onde os ganhos de produtividade são mais difíceis) e mais intensivos em know-how, a produtividade portuguesa "derrapa" crescentemente face à Europeia.”

Primeiro, dois exemplos da metalomecânica, a Vipp dinamarquesa e a Marlin Steel americana. Exemplos que ilustram o que está em causa com casos concretos. Como escrevi em 2006:

"Na semana passada, ao procurar explicar o conceito de produtividade a um grupo de operários, um deles saiu-se com este exemplo: "O que está a dizer é que se pegarmos num metro quadrado de chapa e o utilizarmos para fazer um guarda-lamas de uma motorizada, teremos mais rendimento do que se o utilizarmos para fazer pás, ou enxadas." Eloquente!!!"

Segundo, alguns postais que ajudam a explicar estas diferenças de produtividade:

• Quando o sol se levanta será bom que corras (Junho de 2006)

Podemos vender trigo, ou vender farinha, ou vender bolos, ou organizar festas de aniversário com palhaços e tudo. Subindo na escala de valor, aumentamos a produtividade.

• Pregarás o Evangelho do Valor (Março de 2006)

 Aumenta-se muito mais a margem com o aumento de 1% no preço do que a reduzir 1% o custo fixo ou o custo variável.

Como é que se aumentam os preços sem perder clientes? Subindo na escala de valor, trabalhando na willingness to pay (WTP) dos clientes. O erro é trabalharmos para o output da nossa organização em vez de trabalhar para o outcome do cliente.(Abril de 2020)

• A originação de valor (parte I) (Outubro de 2008)

A típica empresa portuguesa está no estágio da extracção de valor. O mais básico de todos.

• Produtividade é muito mais do que organização, recordar aos engenheiros "Actualizem o documento por favor." (Março de 2009)

Trecho retirado de "Qual o antónimo de Luxemburgo?" publicado no semanário Vida Económica de 16 de Julho de 2021.

Acerca da formulação da estratégia

 "when formulating a strategy argument, it is often best to start by stating the conclusion that one is trying to support with the argument."

Relaciono isto com o meu velho concreto versus abstracto. Como conseguimos fazer do que temos uma estratégia vencedora?

"Notice that in stating our conclusion, we did so in the present tense. This may seem somewhat odd at first, because (when we were formulating this argument) we were trying to develop an argument about a future outcome. As a result, some may think that the argument should be stated in the future tense or future perfect tense—this would be more accurate grammatically, and would more appropriately acknowledge the provisional nature of our argument. Nonetheless, we strongly advise formulating strategy arguments in the present tense, for two reasons. First, using the future tense makes the logic itself much more difficult to develop and harder to deal with, and we think little is gained. Second, when using the present tense, our conclusion becomes a concise statement of the future we want to see. In fact, one trick for formulating a strategy is to imagine that one has reached that future state, and then think of the process of formulating the argument in the same way as we approached the strategy identification for Southwest and Walmart. In other words, imagine that you will achieve the same level of success as those companies and have been asked to explain why."[Moi ici: Como não recuar a 2007 e pensar em ""imagine o futuro. Tire a foto do futuro. Não vai para lá... JÁ LÁ ESTÁ! Agora, pinte o quadro.""]

"Strategy formulation should be primarily about forging a logical argument for how the firm will accomplish a desired goal. Clear strategy arguments allow leaders to confidently chart a path through an uncertain future. Developing such arguments forces executives to surface and state their assumptions about the future and helps them to identify what needs to happen for a proposed course of action to succeed.

■ When formulating a strategy, concentrate on the logical validity of the argument: Do the premises necessarily imply the conclusions? Validity is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for great strategies. Avoid debates about soundness—whether or not the assumptions about the future are accurate predictions. Novel strategies demand more speculation than analyzing an existing strategy and less reliance on established facts.

■ Focusing on validity pays off by surfacing the requirements for success, by being able to identify what needs to happen for the strategy to work. Knowing necessary future conditions allows executives to undertake appropriate actions or investments and monitor important environmental conditions. Identifying the things that have to be true for the strategy to succeed also gives executives insight into how to measure and track progress toward the goal and assess the strategic health of an initiative" 

Recordar "Fazer uma excursão até ao Futuro Imaginado" 

Trechos retirados de “Arguing for Organizational Advantage” de Sorensen, Jesper B.; Carroll, Glenn R.

Curiosidade do dia

Há dias desabafei no Twitter:

A degradação epistemológica nesta choldra continua. Agrupamento de escolas, mais câmara municipal e um clube de pesca lançam "peixinhos vermelhos" para uma charca.

As pessoas não param para pensar? Que professores de biologia e ciências da natureza leccionam nestas escolas? pic.twitter.com/hvnGRR51K7

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) July 11, 2021

Hoje ao ouvir o noticiário das 18h numa rádio ouvi esta estória, "Peixes-dourados gigantes encontrados no Estado norte-americano do Minnesota": 

"validity today, soundness tomorrow"

"When setting a strategy for an organization, what we want—ultimately—is one that is based on a sound argument: the logic of success must in the end turn out to be internally and externally consistent. But when assessing a strategy for the future, we have difficulty determining whether or not all of our assumptions are true. We cannot know whether the strategy argument is sound until the future has happened.

...

If we insist on trying to establish the soundness of our argument at the outset, then we run two risks. First, we may waste countless hours debating things that ultimately can only be known in the future, until either someone gives up or collective delusion sets in.

...

A second risk is that—faced with this uncertainty—we may seek comfort in the known. But in doing so, we may end up so conservative in our assumptions that we miss out on the ability to formulate bold and creative strategies. Firms facing disruption certainly cannot afford to restrict themselves to assumptions that they are highly certain will hold in the future. Nor can entrepreneurs. 

...

We recommend a simple, useful mantra in formulating and assessing strategies for the future: validity today, soundness tomorrow. In other words, when formulating a strategy, concentrate on the internal coherence or validity of the argument: do the conclusions follow from the premises as stated? Avoid fights about whether or not the premises are accurate predictions, and instead concentrate on whether the premises necessarily imply the conclusion. The soundness of any given strategy argument can only be discovered as you enact the strategy and monitor its progress. Because validity is a precondition for soundness and therefore success, the work put into formulating valid strategy arguments pays off in the execution stage, both by eliminating strategies that have no chance of success (because they are invalid) and by making clear what the critical assumptions are and what the consequences might be if they turn out not to be true.

If, by articulating a valid strategy, we can specify in exact terms the premises or conditions that need to be true for the strategy to succeed, then we have laid out a set of things (patterns, trends, beliefs, breakthroughs) that can be watched, monitored, and evaluated as the strategy is put in place. This monitoring involves continuously assessing the soundness of the strategy argument. If some of the assumptions begin to look as though they will turn out to be false, then we know that our strategy may be in trouble. Eventually, the strategy argument needs to be both valid and sound to yield sustained strategic success."

Trechos retirados de “Arguing for Organizational Advantage” de Sorensen, Jesper B.; Carroll, Glenn R.

"Every firm is unique"

"Every firm is unique; it has its own unique history. So we cannot predict the impact or effect of a particular strategy or initiative on your firm, because we know nothing about the specific situation, and no one knows exactly what will be the ultimate impact of any change on the wider system. Your firm has evolved over time to look like it does today. Its value system can be viewed as a set of interconnecting routines. Routines are patterns of action and interaction that are involved in the three value activities of sourcing, operations and selling."

Trechos retirados de: Paul Raspin. “What's Your Competitive Advantage?”

"The essence of great strategy formulation ..." (parte III)

Parte I e Parte II

"By respectfully engaging with one another’s ideas and arguments, participants begin to see alternatives to their own way of thinking’or indeed recognize that apparent differences are only superficial’and arrive at a common way of thinking.

If people at the start of a decision-making process have different opinions and points of view, then arriving at a common understanding requires at least some of them to change their minds. Arguing constructively, and in particular focusing on elaborating causal arguments, is more likely to cause such changes than a simple exchange of viewpoints. In fact, simply providing reasons for one’s viewpoint is likely to harden people’s points of view and lead to a stalemate.

...

When managers arrive, through disinterested dialogue, at a common understanding of the situation and an agreed-upon argument to justify their decision, they are more likely to act coherently 

...

If strategic management does not change the way organizational members think, and so act, strategy can only have any real impact through coercion. Without changing ways of thinking, organizational members continue to see the same problems as they always did, and they continue to solve these problems using the same beliefs as before"

Trechos retirados de “Arguing for Organizational Advantage” de Sorensen, Jesper B.; Carroll, Glenn R. 

"The essence of great strategy formulation ..." (parte II)

Parte I.

Por que é importante discutir, argumentar sobre estratégia:

"Better Arguments

The most important reason to argue about strategy in groups lies in the quality of the decision itself. One reason is that the quality of information that is used to inform the decision-making process affects the outcomes, and groups with a diverse range of members can have access to more information than any one individual. Arguing in groups produces better-quality decisions when the process brings in people with varied information and beliefs and these contrasting views are pitted against each other. People working in different parts of the organization will, due to their differing responsibilities, hold different insights. Each possesses a partial view of the firm’s situation, its challenges and opportunities. A process that surfaces and respects these differing perspectives is less likely to make avoidable mistakes, as each argument’s assumptions’the argument’s external consistency’is challenged from a variety of different viewpoints.

...

Buy-In

Strategic decisions involve allocating resources toward some activities and not others; in many cases, they involve reallocating effort from old initiatives to new ones that seem more promising or urgent. 

...

If managers walk away from a strategic decision feeling like losers, their commitment to the initiative will suffer. This is particularly true if they feel they lost unfairly. And a “technically correct” decision that has limited buy-in is unlikely to succeed.

...

Changing How People Think

Perhaps the most powerful benefit of arguing constructively comes from changing how people think. As we have noted, managers from different parts of the organization approach any given strategic decision from their own vantage point, rooted in their roles and their prior experiences."

Trechos retirados de “Arguing for Organizational Advantage” de Sorensen, Jesper B.; Carroll, Glenn R.

Diferente do mainstream publicado

Let that calmly sink in:

"Overall, the available evidence does not support the idea that there are serious skill gaps or skill shortages in the US labor force. The prevailing situation in the US labor market, as in most developed economies, continues to be skill mismatches where the average worker and job candidate has more education than their current job requires."

Para quem ao longos dos anos escreveu sobre a caridadezinha [Moi ici: Recordar "The Predator State" e a caridadezinha ]:

"It is not clear what the apparent rise in employer complaints about skill problems represents in part because of the poor quality of information presented as part of the complaints. No doubt some component of the complaints is simply an effort to secure policy changes that lower labor costs. It may well be that some component of the complaints represents real problems associated with changes in employer behavior, such as greater outside hiring and associated increases in employee turnover and reduced training and internal development. Some of these changes might be driven by the behavior of other employers. For example, increases in turnover may be driven by the hiring practices of other employers, and smaller employers who in the past had been able to meet their skill needs by hiring skilled apprentices away from larger employers may find that there is no one to hire when those apprenticeship programs are gone. Efforts to hire skills rather than build them from within would create much more specific and variable job requirements across employers that would vastly increase not only the difficulty in hiring but also the experience of having to raise wages above current levels in order to find appropriate candidates.

The implications that follow from the above conclusions are important to consider."

Espero que Mongo implique antes o regresso ao século XIX, "Por que é que os jornalistas não colocam perguntas impertinentes?"

"The view that emerges from these arguments is one where responsibility for developing the skills that employers want is transferred from the employer onto job seekers and schools. Such a transfer of responsibility would be profound in its implications. Schools, at least as traditionally envisioned, are not suited to organize work experience, the key attribute that employers want. Nor are they necessarily good at teaching work-based skills. Those skills are easiest and cheapest to learn in the workplace through apprentice-like arrangements that one finds not only in skilled trades but also in fields like accounting and medicine. Unlike in the classroom, problems to practice on do not have to be created in the workplace. They exist already, and solving them creates value for others. Observation and practice is also easiest to do where the productive work is being done, and employment creates incentives and motivation that typical classrooms cannot duplicate." 

Tantos temas tratados de forma diferente do mainstream publicado. 

Trechos retirados de "SKILL GAPS, SKILL SHORTAGES AND SKILL MISMATCHES: EVIDENCE FOR THE US" de Peter Cappelli.

"The essence of great strategy formulation ..."

A sua empresa tem uma estratégia? Quantas pessoas foram envolvidas na sua formulação? Houve discussão?

"we think that reasoning about strategy is best done by arguing, and specifically by arguing in groups. 

...

The essence of great strategy formulation and strategic management involves arguing constructively’when the strategy is being developed and as it is being implemented. Good strategists and executives who achieve long-term success encourage constructive arguments in decision-making groups, whether they do so consciously or not. Without constructive arguments among multiple stakeholders, strategy is often vacuous, and in the worst case may involve gambling the future of a company without even realizing it. As Gary Pisano warns: “For any proposed program of reasonable complexity, lack of debate is actually a worrisome sign.”

...

Vigorous argument should be encouraged and celebrated, provided that people are arguing constructively, not arguing blue."

Trechos retirados de “Arguing for Organizational Advantage” de Sorensen, Jesper B.; Carroll, Glenn R.

" olha para a mesma realidade e vê oportunidades"

Ao longo dos anos tenho escrito aqui no blogue sobre o advento de Mongo (aka Estranhistão) e sobre a democratização da produção, sobre os makers e makerspaces (ver marcadores abaixo).

Assim, como não sorrir ao ler "The Autonomous Factory: Innovation through Personalized Production at Scale" (a única coisa que me deixa algum desconforto é a interpretação que se possa dar aquele "at scale" porque penso naquele "tu não és do meu sangue", porque penso na paixão assimétrica das tribos).

Mongo não é só capacidade de produção customizada a custo aceitável, Mongo é também paixão, interacção entre produtor e utilizador, Mongo é pertença à mesma tribo. Julgo que muita gente ainda não percebeu isto, não basta ter capacidade produtiva, tem de se ser capaz de sonhar com e desafiar o outro, fazedor ou utilizador. Por isso, estas experiências feitas pelas Siemens deste mundo são bem vindas, aprecio-as pragmaticamente pelo trabalho de pavimentação que fazem para os pequenos que virão depois. Os pequenos nunca teriam poder para alterar leis feitas no "século XX" para proteger um mundo que se vai desvanecendo, tal como a Uber.

Vamos a alguns trechos do texto:

"Nowadays, consumers expect the ideal product in terms of size, material, shape, color, quality and other individual needs and specific requirements. Advances in technology and digitalization have created a significant market for individualized offerings. Personalization at scale has the potential to create $1.7 trillion to $3 trillion in overall new value. Capturing this value requires companies mastering the underlying technologies and enabling consumers to be their own product designers [Moi ici: Essa é a primeira fase "to be their own product designers", mas para isso não precisamos de empresas, precisamos de espaços ao estilo "Grab-and-Go" com máquinas 3D e pouco mais. A segunda fase é quando entram os designers, os desafiadores, os curadores, os que ajudam a afinar o gosto. Espaço para cooperativas de fazedores].

...

Producing companies are therefore facing pressing questions: How can a production process evolve to meet these personalization demands? How to decide on the best automation strategy? And how will the future of production ultimately look like? It essentially comes down to the question: What to automate and to which degree? It can be all too easy to get carried away with automation for its own sake, but the result of this approach is almost always projects that cost too much, take too long to implement and fail to deliver against a company’s business objectives and operations strategy. [Moi ici: Este trecho faz logo lembrar as experiências da Mercedes e da Toyota que já entraram na fase da desautomatização por causa da flexibilidade que precisam. Li este trecho umas três vezes nas últimas 24 horas e sempre emergiu na minha mente a foto que serve de papel de parede numa sala de reuniões de uma empresa. No texto que escrevi em 2017 cometi um erro, assumi que a fábrica era anterior à electricidade. No entanto, depois percebi que no tecto estavam as lâmpadas ... eléctricas. O que ainda reforça mais a pergunta que faço no tal postal de 2017, "Quanto tempo?". Já temos as peças todas, mas ainda não aprendemos, ainda não dominamos como as vamos organizar. Julgo que o maior obstáculo está na mente, a formatação a que fomos sujeitos coloca-nos palas que escondem o que para quem virá mais tarde, será um duhhh!]

...

The extent of twenty-first-century customization and personalization also requires production businesses accommodating a large variety of versions of any given product, which must be produced in smaller batches with very short lead times. This Low Volume – High Mix production typically means lot sizes of less than 20 pieces (occasionally, down to 1 piece only) per ordered lot, involving increased complexity and administration cost. The fundamental challenge for producing companies can therefore be formulated as: Maximizing overall productivity under

• higher personalization (i.e. increasing variety of product versions)
• smaller and variable lot sizes
• shorter product life cycles (i.e. shorter time spans available to production)"

Lembram-se da VW e a Deutsche Post? A maior barreira é a formatação da nossa mente, sempre em busca da big bet idealizada no século XX. Incumbente, linha vermelha, vê a evolução acima "This Low Volume – High Mix production" como uma fuga do Paraíso, uma pedra no sapato. A organização do futuro, linha a preto, olha para a mesma realidade e vê oportunidades.

Trabalhar para aumentar os preços médios unitários

Ontem no Jornal de Negócios tive a oportunidade de ler "Da falta de ambição de crescer" de Paulo Morgado.

Acrescentaria um factor em que tenho focado a minha actividade profissional nos últimos 20 anos, trabalhar para subir na escala de valor. Trabalhar para aumentar os preços médios unitários.

"The truth is that innovation is never really about ideas, it’s about solving problems"

 

"The truth is that innovation is never really about ideas, it’s about solving problems. So when a technology is still nascent, doesn’t gain traction in a large, established market, which by definition is already fairly well served, but in a hair-on-fire use case — a problem that somebody needs solved so badly that they almost literally have their hair on fire.

...

So in the early stages of a technology, don’t try to imagine how a perfected version fit in, find a problem that somebody needs solved so badly right now that they are willing to put up with some inconvenience.

...

Things that change the world always start out arrive out of context, for the simple reason that the world hasn’t changed yet. So when a new technology first appears, we don’t really know how to use it. It takes time to learn how to leverage its advantages to create an impact.

...

The truth is that it’s better to prepare than it is to adapt. [Moi ici: Ainda ontem, ao estudar uma série de regulamentos comunitários experimentei um sentimento que ajudei a aplicar em 2004/5. Os regulamentos estabelecem regras para a colocação de certos produtos no mercado. OK, que produtos podem ser criados e que estão à frente do estabelecido? Como se pode ir à frente da onda?] When you are adapting you are, by definition, already behind. That’s why it’s important to build a learning curve early, before a technology has begun to impact your business.

...

for most of us, the opportunities in the post-digital era won’t be creating new technologies themselves, but in the ecosystems they create. That’s where we’ll see new markets emerge, new jobs created and new fortunes to be made."

Trechos retirados de "How To Compete In A New Era Of Innovation" 

"a highly centralized country will not create a Mittelstand"

Em Maio de 2008, pela primeira vez, escrevi aqui no blogue sobre os Hidden Champions:

"Estes campeões esquecidos e muitas vezes mal vistos:

"Unfortunately, across Europe there remains a post-Socialist reflex to quash entrepreneurial spirit rather than to praise the contribution that energetic businesspeople make to a nation's growth and employment. This attitude is changing, but slowly. Hidden champions show how important it is for Europe, which too often perpetuates mediocrity, to instead celebrate and support excellence."
.
Isto é o que precisamos "Hidden Champions The little-known European companies that are conquering the world " mais do que gigantes sanguessugas, nacionais ou multinacionais, que à custa do negócio do preço e das relações privilegiadas com o poder vão perpetuando um modelo de desenvolvimento que vai fazendo o país definhar."

Ontem ao ler “A Remarkable Journey from Farmhouse to the Global Stage” de Hermann Simon encontrei esta passagem sobre os Hidden Champions:

"France is a special case with respect to Hidden Champions. The French took a very close look at the German model in the wake of the Great Recession of 2008–2009. Wanting to understand the reasons behind Germany’s success and learn from them, they homed in on the Mittelstand. That led to my being invited to give numerous talks on Hidden Champions, including one to the French Senate. I introduced the Hidden Champions concept and posited two provocative theses. First, a highly centralized country will not create a Mittelstand. Second, if a country places extremely high value on elite education, it can hinder the development of a Mittelstand.

...

In my opinion, both of these hypotheses apply to France. The country’s high level of centralization means that Paris attracts all the talent. The recipe for the dream career in France is a degree from an elite school, followed by a job in a large company or a ministry. Hardly anyone is interested in working in a rural area or for a small- or medium-sized business, which by definition has little name recognition and status in a centralized society."

A propósito de Paris ... e que tal Lesboa?

"the need to consider the interests of a broader range of stakeholders"

"respondents indicated which stakeholders were explicitly considered during the strategic planning process. We presented them with a list that included five specific groups — customers, employees, partners, communities, investors — and also invited them to name any other stakeholders (such as regulators) relevant to their specific business.

It was surprising that only 11% of respondents indicated that their strategic planning process explicitly considered the perspective of all the identified stakeholder groups. While consideration of customer needs was nearly universal, only 58% of respondents said that the needs of employees were explicitly considered, 35% said that partners were considered, and 27% considered their communities.

...

Restricting your focus solely to the needs of customers is like trying to solve a puzzle with many of the key pieces missing. A strategy development process that overlooks the interests of all relevant stakeholders creates blind spots about the viability of your strategy

...

The goal of strategy has always been to create value for customers and investors in a way that cannot be easily copied and that enables a business to earn an attractive margin. But business leaders now face two additional requirements: the need to consider the interests of a broader range of stakeholders, and the ability to do so under conditions of change rather than stability. 

Our research indicates that the majority of companies should ignore the siren voices urging them to either double down or to pivot. For these companies, the priority is rather to focus their innovation and leadership efforts on reimagining the activities used to deliver value to customers and other stakeholders in order to improve the relevance and distinctiveness of their strategy. Then do it again."

Algo estranho para quem há anos que promove os ecossistemas da procura:

• Que faz o quê no ecossistema (Março de 2017) 
• Olhar para o ecossistema (Outibro de 2017)
• Subir na escala de valor (Março de 2007)

Trechos retirados de "Most Businesses Should Neither ‘Pivot’ nor ‘Double Down’" 

"change is always, at some level, about what people value"

Há dias em "Why Change Fails" li e sublinhei:

"All too often, we assume that mere necessity can drive change forward, yet history has shown that not to be the case. There’s a reason why nations fail and businesses go bankrupt. The truth is that if a change is important, some people won’t like it and they will work to undermine it in underhanded and insidious ways. That’s what we need to overcome.

...

Organizations face similar challenges. Sure they invest in tangible assets, such as plant and equipment, but any significant change will involve changing people’s beliefs and behaviors and that is a different matter altogether. Today, even technological transformations have a significant human component.

...

One of the great misconceptions of our modern age is that people make decisions based on rational calculations of utility and that, by engineering the right incentives, we can control behavior. Yet people are far more than economic entities, They crave dignity and recognition, to be valued, in other words, as ends in themselves rather than as merely means to an end.

...

The biggest misconception about change is that once people understand it, they will embrace and so the best way to drive change forward is to explain the need for change in a very convincing and persuasive way. Change, in this view, is essentially a communication exercise and the right combination of words and images is all that is required.

Yet as should be clear by now that is clearly not true. People will often oppose change because it asks them to alter their identity. 

...

In other words, change is always, at some level, about what people value. That’s why to bring change about you need to identify shared values that reaffirm, rather than undermine, people’s sense of identity. Recognition is often a more powerful incentive than even financial rewards. In the final analysis, lasting change always needs to be built on common ground."

Bom material para uma futura conversa oxigenadora.

Interessante esta proposta, OpenSpace Beta para fomentar a transformação: 

"Explain the case for transformation.

Explain that specific practices have not been determined. 

Explain the challenges the business is facing in terms of competition, pricing pressure, organizational effectiveness, etc.

Invite everyone involved into the process of writing the transformation story. Communicate clearly that the managers do not have all the answers and that they are looking for the very best ideas to make the move to Beta genuine, rapid and lasting.

Make it plain that the organization will work with a wide array of Beta practices. The results of each intervention on the system (or "Flip") will be inspected to determine whether to continue the specific practice."

Dinheiro da UE para financiar modelos de negócio cancerosos...

"Um estudo da Agroges mostra que a fileira de tomate para a indústria tem evoluído "muito favoravelmente" nas últimas duas décadas, tendo "aumentado muito significativamente a sua eficiência, produtividade e relevância" na área do regadio do Ribatejo e Oeste. Um período em que a área de tomate cresceu 27,4% e a produção total aumentou 47,95%. A produtividade foi reforçada em 16,1% e a produção por agricultor cresceu 426,1%. Estamos a falar de uma produção total, em 2019, de 1440 toneladas, produzidas por 367 produtores, numa área total de 14 468 hectares. E que geraram um volume de negócios total de 119 milhões de euros.

...

Rendimento em causa Para Manuela Nina Jorge, diretora -geral da Agroges, esta alteração na PAC "irá por em causa o rendimento do agricultor e, a prazo, a sua capacidade de capitalização e de investimento". Sobretudo, quando o custo dos fatores de produção em Portugal, desde a energia aos agroquímicos, são "substancialmente mais altos" do que nos restantes países europeus, o que, já por si, retira competitividade ao setor."

Há anos que escrevo sobre o tomate e sobre as incongruências do sector (2017, 2016, 2014, 2012, 2006).

O texto de 2006 já levantava a mesma interrogação que este acima me levanta: Tanta eficiência, tanta produtividade, tanto crescimento, mas sem o dinheirinho da UE o modelo falha. Interessante, ainda na quinta-feira passada escrevi:

"Quantas vezes empresas recebem apoios e subsídios para inovação e acabam por usar esse dinheiro, sem dolo, como uma forma de reduzir os custos e poder prolongar o modelo de negócio actual por mais um ou dois anos, continuando a competir pelo preço."

Dinheiro da UE para financiar modelos de negócio cancerosos... 

BTW, lembram-se do karma do leite? Preparem-se para o karma do tomate:

"Já Gonçalo Escudeiro, da Federação Nacional das Organizações de Produtores, considera que "ou a UE protege os seus produtores, ou tem de taxar a produção internacional que entra de forma muito agressiva no mercado europeu". A próxima PAC será bastante exigente do ponto de vista ambiental, "e muito bem", defende, mas é preciso garantir que "não seja à custa da perda de competitividade dos produtores europeus". Uma das exigências dos agricultores é que o consumidor possa conhecer a proveniência dos produtos alimentares. "Porque é que se vamos comprar uma peça de roupa esta é obrigada a ostentar a sua origem e uma lata de tomate ou de milho doce ou um pacote de leite não é?", questiona." 

Trechos retirados de "Fileira do tomate teme perda de competitividade com a nova PAC" no Dinheiro Vivo de ontem.

Are you a Marxianist?

"Are you a Marxist? You are likely to answer “no.” So my next question is: “OK, if you are not a Marxist, why is your pricing Marxian?” While Marx’s labor theory is totally rejected today, it has survived in pricing. What a strange phenomenon! Let me explain why that is the case.

The most important contribution of Karl Marx (1818–1883) was his labor theory of value, according to which only labor creates value. He writes that the “prices of goods are determined by wages” (Marx 1951). Marx allows for differences in productivity and qualifications of workers, and thus for different values per unit of time. But the core of his theory is that only labor creates value. Consequently, labor costs are the sole base for price calculations.

In modern terminology, we call this method “cost-plus pricing.” Based on my decades of observations around the world, I would claim that 80% of all prices in today’s markets are primarily determined on the basis of costs. And all costs are labor costs. Lawyers, consultants, and most other service providers charge prices for their time (hourly, daily, monthly rates). If an automotive company buys parts from a supplier, these parts from a supplier, these parts carry labor costs up the value chain."

Leio isto em “A Remarkable Journey from Farmhouse to the Global Stage” de Hermann Simon. É uma pena Hermann Simon ser tão mal conhecido em Portugal... um país pequeno como Portugal, parte do continente europeu e aspirante a um nível de vida centro europeu não pode confiar no marxianismo, não pode seguir a receita dos muggles, tem de seguir o método alemão. Não a baboseira que nos contam sobre as BMW, ou VW, isso não está no nosso ADN, nem temos capital para isso. Isso é para futuros governos inteligentes (eheheheh um oxímoro em Portugal, juntar as duas palavras. Em Portugal é mais, infelizmente, "governo de espertos") que apliquem a receita irlandesa para atrair capital estrangeiro que estabelecerá as multinacionais. 

O método alemão de que falo é o que Hermann Simon caracterizou como o dos campeões escondidos, o seguido pelas Mittelstand. Empresas grandes a competir com chineses dá ... asneira.

Recordar "Somos todos alemães" ou "We are not cost cutters" ou "Somos todos alemães (parte X)". E para quem tem horror a escolher clientes ou segmentos do mercado recomendo "Há que escolher! (parte III)"

Trabalhar para nichos mundiais

Na conversa de 116 minutos no Whatsapp no passado Sábado a minha irmã "inglesa" falou-me do livro "Why the Germans Do It Better" de John Kampfner. Ontem, comecei a ouvi-lo:

"It may be global in reach, but it is local in its loyalties. It is one of hundreds of thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises (with turnover of under €50 million and up to 250 workers) in towns across Germany. The Mittelstand employs around three quarters of the country’s workforce and produces more than half the economic output. It is the backbone of the economy and the backbone of society.

...

,,Along with regionalization, family ties and social responsibility, another key aspect of the Mittelstand is its emphasis on specialization. Many of the most successful entrepreneurs find a single product – a particular machine tool or a household appliance. Theirs is a narrow expertise, but they often then end up cornering the global market, focusing relentlessly on acquiring and expanding their customer base, and making sure they stay ahead of the competition.

...

Two statistics stand out. Some 80 per cent of German GDP is derived from family businesses. Two thirds of successful global Mittelstand companies are based in places with fewer than fifty thousand inhabitants.

...

In many other countries in the Western world, industrial and business operations have become very much centralized towards the major cities, whereas in Germany, advanced manufacturing, international footprint and regionalism go together.

Most of all, it is the smaller firms that set Germany apart. The business strategist and author Hermann Simon has coined the term ‘hidden champions’. These are companies, like the ones I’ve mentioned, that devote themselves to a niche. These are success stories of globalization and free trade. The individuals in charge are classic monomaniacs, single-minded and devoted to a single cause or product. They usually shun the limelight."

Falei-lhe disto quando lhe disse qual a receita para as PMEs tugas, nicho com clientes em todo o mundo para ter escala. A velha lição alemã:

• Empresas pequenas concentradas em nichos mundiais (2012)

" never run a business in which you have no influence on the prices you charge"

"In every market my father went to, we were “price takers.” [Moi ici: Eram agricultores] We had to accept the set price, whether we liked it or not. It was an extremely uncomfortable position. As anyone with a similar experience will attest, money is tight on a farm. These sales were our only source of income.

I absorbed all these impressions as a boy and I must admit, I did not like them. Decades later, I would explain in interviews that these lessons taught me something that has guided me in running my own business and helping others improve theirs: never run a business in which you have no influence on the prices you charge."

 Trecho retirado de "A Remarkable Journey from Farmhouse to the Global Stage" de Hermann Simon

Não se pode querer sol na eira e chuva no nabal!

Recordo este gráfico de 2013:

Então, comparava as exportações de 2012 com as de 2006. O valor era o mesmo, mas enquanto que em 2006 existiam 8000 empresas, em 2012 já só existiam 5000 empresas.

Entre 2006 e 2012 a produtividade das empresas portuguesas da indústria têxtil e do vestuário cresceu.

Vivemos num país em que os salários e os custos aumentam mais do que a produtividade física. Por isso, os preços unitários têm de aumentar, mas nem todas as empresas o conseguem fazer. Assim, as empresas com produtos mais básicos desaparecem, são obrigadas a fechar, porque não podem competir com a Ásia, Turquia ou Marrocos. Por outro lado, as empresas que conseguem aumentar preços, fazem-no porque sobem na escala de valor. São mais pequenas e precisam de menos trabalhadores. 

Com o encerramento das empresas menos produtivas a produtividade estatisticamente sobe muito mais. Recordar o exemplo:

Ontem, li "Têxtil e vestuário admite perder de 11 mil a 56 mil postos de trabalho até 2030":

"O estudo é da responsabilidade da ATP e contempla três cenários distintos, desde a visão mais pessimista, que admite o desaparecimento de 3500 empresas e de mais de 56 mil empregos, à mais otimista, que prevê o encerramento de cerca de mil empresas e de mais de 11 mil postos de trabalho. A grande diferença está na riqueza gerada. No caso do cenário 'chumbo', o mais negativo, cairá para menos de cinco mil milhões de euros de faturação, enquanto as exportações se ficarão por pouco mais de quatro mil milhões de euros. Em contrapartida, no cenário 'ouro', o mais positivo, o volume de negócios do setor subirá para mais de 10 mil milhões de euros, com as exportações a serem responsáveis por oito mil milhões de euros, um aumento de 30% e de 53%, respetivamente, face aos valores pré-pandemia."

Já em 2019, em "Sector têxtil admite fecho de um terço das empresas e 28 mil despedimentos" se lia:

"Na melhor das hipóteses, a indústria têxtil e do vestuário vai aumentar a facturação e as vendas ao exterior. Mas voltarão os encerramentos de fábricas e os despedimentos.

O plano estratégico anterior apontava três cenários possíveis para 2020, agora fala-se num para 2025. E é este último que prevê que uma forte quebra no número de empresas em laboração e um grande número de despedimentos. O sector da indústria têxtil e vestuário (ITV) tinha, em 2018, 6700 empresas, de acordo com o Banco de Portugal, e quase 139 mil trabalhadores. O projectado para 2025 reduz para “mais de 4000 empresas” e 110 mil trabalhadores. O que, a confirmar-se, significaria que cerca de um terço das empresas de ITV vão fechar e haveria à volta de 28 mil despedimentos."

Lamento este uso de linguagem negativa sobre os encerramentos e os despedimentos... isto parece forte, mas é como dizer que o leão é mau quando mata a gazela.

Se queremos que os trabalhadores têxteis sejam mais produtivos, e possam ter melhores salários, as empresas incapazes de subir na escala de valor têm de fechar e libertar os seus trabalhadores para outras áreas da economia onde possam ser melhor remunerados.

O erro é acreditar acriticamente que as empresas em Portugal podem continuar a crescer como antes de haver china.

Com base neste documento, atentem na evolução da facturação por trabalhador na indústria têxtil e de vestuário portuguesa:

Não se pode querer sol na eira e chuva no nabal! Recordar a evolução dos custos da mão-de-obra no têxtil e vestuário:

Eu, que sou consultor contra mim falo. É muito difícil fazer o corte epistemológico, mudar de agulha, mudar de paradigma comercial, produtivo, competitivo. Quantas vezes empresas recebem apoios e subsídios para inovação e acabam por usar esse dinheiro, sem dolo, como uma forma de reduzir os custos e poder prolongar o modelo de negócio actual por mais um ou dois anos, continuando a competir pelo preço. Não é impossível, mas é muito difícil. É abandonar a navegação por cabotagem e avançar, com medo claro porque se trata de gente com skin in the game, não são políticos a torrar impostos futuros, e avançar para mar incógnito onde os mapas antigos diziam "aqui há dragões"!

Por isso, o deixem as empresas morrer continua a ser a minha orientação principal.

"The choice is up to you"

E chego ao fim de “Choose Your Customer: How to Compete Against the Digital Giants and Thrive” de Jonathan S. Byrnes com uns trechos sobre o gestor do futuro:

"In today’s Age of Diverse Markets, managers’ activities could not be more different from those required of managers in the prior mass-market era. Successful managers today must be overwhelmingly broad and holistic in their perspective; their work is disruptive, innovative, and strategic; and they are primarily team-oriented.

This difference in management is analogous to the difference between a good cook and a great chef. A good cook flawlessly follows a set of predetermined recipes, always creating very good meals. A great chef, on the other hand, has the vision and capability to create an increasingly superb set of innovative, new dishes that continually transform a cuisine—producing the recipes that good cooks follow.

...

Managers today have to spend a significant amount of time actually physically in customers—walking in the customer’s shoes. [Moi ici: Lembrem-se dos que sonham em automatizar as interacções com os clientes] They must be involved in profit-showcase projects with customers, which are opportunities to develop new forms of their customer value footprint, learning by doing.

...

Understanding the company’s history: The key to really understanding a company is to know that most often it is doing what it needed to do 5 to 10 (or more) years ago. These practices—including customer targeting and management, category management, and supply chain and operations management—get embedded in a company’s culture and are passed along from manager to manager, year after year.

...

Each and every manager today faces a stark choice: either try to hold on to the past or focus on building your [Moi ici: Como não recordar a diferença dos que resistem versus os que abraçam a mudança - 2011, 2013, 2021]

The choice is up to you."

Corrective actions versus continual improvement in ISO 9001

When do you use clause 10.2 and when do you use clause 10.3 when talking about improvement in ISO 9001:2015?

Let's look at this:

We have a standard way of doing things. 

We follow that standard, and we check the results. And we decide how to act. 

When everything is "as usual" we decide to keep the standard. The standard is useful. (Top SDCA cycle in the figure)

When a non-conformity (NC) happens, we treat the NC. After confirming that it was closed we ask,  should we improve? 

If the answer is no, we keep the standard, but when the answer is yes we start the improvement cycle, the PDCA cycle. (Bottom PDCA cycle) 

We plan an experiment about changing the way how things are done. 

We do the experiment. 

We check the results, and we decide how to act. 

If the results are not NOK we will continue in the PDCA cycle trying a new experiment. 

If the results are OK we can leave the PDCA cycle and return to the SDCA cycle where we update our standard. 

This event-based improvement is initiated by an NC it is about clause 10.2 and behind that is clause 8.7. This is the everyday level that I mentioned here.

However, even if our decision after a negative event is to not improve, periodically we should prepare a performance report, we should monitor and measure (clause 9.1.1) and we should analyze and evaluate (clause 9.1.3). And again, we ask, should we improve?

If the answer is yes, we are starting a calendar-based improvement. This is about clause 10.3 continual improvement. Typically, performance reports are about quality objectives and process performance. 

If this topic interests you perhaps this free webinar may be useful. 

"the Age of Diverse Markets" (parte VIII)

 Parte I, parte II, parte II, parte IV, parte V, parte VI e parte VII. 

"Throughout this book, we argue that all revenues are not equally profitable—some produce high profits, and some actually produce losses. But are all profits equally desirable?

The surprising answer is no—and the key to understanding the difference between “good profits” and “bad profits” is demonstrated in 

The desirability of an investment is not just a function of the likely returns but also a function of the strategic relevance (whether the investment moves the company’s strategy forward). 

...

Consider the upper left quadrant: high returns but low strategic relevance. This quadrant is quicksand. These investments look very attractive, but they take the company’s capital and focus away from its main line of business. All too many companies have unclear and unproductive positioning because they lack the discipline to say no to attractive-looking investments that don’t fit. Ultimately, companies that pursue these types of investments get picked off by highly focused competitors. These are the investments that produce bad profits.

Think about the lower right quadrant: low returns but high strategic relevance. These are investments that would show up at the bottom of a simple capital budgeting ranking, but they are essential to moving the company forward. Here, the watchword is courage, a character trait that is especially critical in today’s transforming business world.

...

The moral of the story is that while investments in the upper left quadrant produce bad profits, investments in the lower right produce “good losses.”"

Trechos retirados de “Choose Your Customer: How to Compete Against the Digital Giants and Thrive” de Jonathan S. Byrnes.

"the Age of Diverse Markets" (parte VII)

 Parte I, parte II, parte II, parte IV, parte V e parte VI.

"Cost reduction provides another landmark example of the power of transaction-based profit analytics. In virtually all supply chain projects, the objective is to reduce costs. The analytical process is to identify the costs that are above average and reduce them to at least average levels. What could be wrong with this?

The answer is that neither simply reducing higher-than-average costs nor reducing costs across the board will maximize profitability. The reason is that the Profit Peak customers are often more costly to serve—and rightly so because the extra customer service costs are a great investment."

Como não regressar ao Senhor dos Perdões e ao discurso monolítico sobre um todo homogéneo:

"Most strategic analyses are based on an assessment of a company as a whole. This is an artifact of the Age of Mass Markets. So-called strengths-weaknesses- opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis, and even Michael Porter’s powerful Five Forces framework, illustrate this approach. Profit contour analysis significantly enriches these analytical models because it shows the composition of a company’s component segments and activities, allowing managers to see their underlying patterns of profitability, which have historically been hidden by aggregate, average metrics.

Companies are not monolithic. For example, profit contour analysis indicates how much a company would be helped by better positioning (for example, which segments are helped, which would suffer profit erosion in the absence of repositioning, and which are well positioned already). It also indicates how difficult, costly, or time-consuming the transition will be (for example, what proportion of the products or vendors have to be changed). This is especially important in addressing the specific problems and opportunities that the currents of change pose.

...

In analyzing possible strategic groups in both your current and transformed industry, it is very instructive to focus on the value-to-cost relationship of your major profit segments: Profit Peaks, Profit Drains, and Profit Deserts."

Trechos retirados de “Choose Your Customer: How to Compete Against the Digital Giants and Thrive” de Jonathan S. Byrnes.

"basta-me correr mais rápido do que tu"

Recuo a 2006.

Em África, todas as manhãs, uma gazela acorda. Sabe que tem de correr mais depressa que o leão, ser mais veloz ou será morta.Todas as manhãs, um leão acorda. Sabe que tem de correr mais depressa que a gazela mais lenta, ou morrerá de fome. Não interessa se és um leão ou uma gazela. Quando o sol se levantar será bom que corras.

Isto a propósito deste texto "James Galbraith: China and Supply Chains – The White House Review’s Focus on US Dependence" que recomendo vivamente. 

Um bom texto cheio de informação útil.

No final pensei ... para um governo, mesmo o americano, não é fácil responder a estes dilemas. No entanto, para um empresário a situação é outra:

Um urso corre atrás de dois campistas. Um deles grita que não têm hipóteses, o urso corre mais do que eles. O outro responde: Não preciso de correr mais depressa do que o urso, basta-me correr mais rápido do que tu.

Um empresário não tem de salvar o mundo, tem de "salvar" a sua empresa. Voltamos ao concreto em detrimento do abstracto.

Obrigado Eurosport

 

Finalmente chegou para me salvar da bola.

Bola por todo o lado em todos os canais. Obrigado Eurosport.

Le tour de France 2017, Le tour de france 2018.

Resultados esperados e riscos

Aqui escrevi (como escrevo em muitos outros espaços):

"A ISO define risco como o efeito da incerteza num resultado esperado.

Esse efeito pode ser negativo (risco) ou positivo (oportunidade)"

Aqui, por exemplo, proponho que o exercício da determinação dos riscos comece pelos resultados esperados: 

Interessante que em "High-Impact Tools for Teams: 5 Tools to Align Team Members, Build Trust, and Get Results Fast" encontre esta sequência:

Começar pelos objectivos para chegar aos riscos e voltar.

Aumento de preços

Há dias numa empresa perguntaram-me a opinião acerca do aumento de preços das matérias-primas. 

Entretanto, ontem li "Inflation, made in China":

"The globalisation side has a lot to do with China. Its export machine gives us all cheap stuff and suppresses wages for manufacturing industries worldwide.[Moi ici: Enquanto os tótós culpavam o euro. Nós, desde sempre optamos por "It's not the euro, stupid!"]

Is the China-as-deflation-exporter story over?

...

As the chart makes clear, the exchange rate has a lot to do with whether China exports higher prices to the US. Beijing has allowed the renminbi to strengthen somewhat. 

...

Now the pressure is really on, as reflected in the 9 per cent increase in Chinese producer prices in May. Choyleva argues that passing higher costs on to domestic customers is difficult in China, as evidenced by weak consumer price inflation. Nor is the government likely to provide relief by weakening the renminbi. It is more concerned about things like food price inflation and encouraging capital inflows. So Chinese producers, if they want to protect profits, have little choice but to jack up their export prices in dollars."

Depois, li "Should You Raise Your Prices This Summer?" de Rafi Mohammed na HBR. Um conjunto de tópicos para reflectir quando se pensa em aumentar preços:

"There are compelling reasons for businesses to raise prices this summer. First and foremost, costs are up. Wages in April and May grew at an annualized rate of 7.4%, gas prices have jumped by 49.6% in the last year, and May’s inflation rate leaped to 5%.

...

consider the following strategies to implement:

Be mindful of competitors. If they are raising prices, it’s easier for you to do so too. Don’t forget to evaluate how your customers will react 

...

Provide an explanation. To defuse pushback, provide a data-backed narrative on why prices are increasing. Customers are more amenable when they understand why they are being asked to pay more.

...

Lower other costs. It’s unrealistic for managers to believe that they have carte blanche to pass along any cost increase and that customers will in essence respond “No problem, keep your normal profit and we’ll continue buying the same amount.” Counterbalance increased input costs with savings from elsewhere. 

...

Roll out a “Best” version. The combination of pent-up demand and stimulus money may increase the receptivity of customers to buying a high-end “Best” version of a product. 

...

Provide options to retain price sensitive customers. A price hike may not work for some customers. Instead of writing them off, offer choices to keep them in the family. 

...

Reexamine prices individually. I’ve found it inevitable that examining a company’s prices leads to discovering some that are too low. Properly pricing these products may reduce the pressure to make an across-the-board increase or take unnecessary risks on other products."