quinta-feira, julho 15, 2021

"validity today, soundness tomorrow"

"When setting a strategy for an organization, what we want—ultimately—is one that is based on a sound argument: the logic of success must in the end turn out to be internally and externally consistent. But when assessing a strategy for the future, we have difficulty determining whether or not all of our assumptions are true. We cannot know whether the strategy argument is sound until the future has happened.


If we insist on trying to establish the soundness of our argument at the outset, then we run two risks. First, we may waste countless hours debating things that ultimately can only be known in the future, until either someone gives up or collective delusion sets in.


A second risk is that—faced with this uncertainty—we may seek comfort in the known. But in doing so, we may end up so conservative in our assumptions that we miss out on the ability to formulate bold and creative strategies. Firms facing disruption certainly cannot afford to restrict themselves to assumptions that they are highly certain will hold in the future. Nor can entrepreneurs. 


We recommend a simple, useful mantra in formulating and assessing strategies for the future: validity today, soundness tomorrow. In other words, when formulating a strategy, concentrate on the internal coherence or validity of the argument: do the conclusions follow from the premises as stated? Avoid fights about whether or not the premises are accurate predictions, and instead concentrate on whether the premises necessarily imply the conclusion. The soundness of any given strategy argument can only be discovered as you enact the strategy and monitor its progress. Because validity is a precondition for soundness and therefore success, the work put into formulating valid strategy arguments pays off in the execution stage, both by eliminating strategies that have no chance of success (because they are invalid) and by making clear what the critical assumptions are and what the consequences might be if they turn out not to be true.

If, by articulating a valid strategy, we can specify in exact terms the premises or conditions that need to be true for the strategy to succeed, then we have laid out a set of things (patterns, trends, beliefs, breakthroughs) that can be watched, monitored, and evaluated as the strategy is put in place. This monitoring involves continuously assessing the soundness of the strategy argument. If some of the assumptions begin to look as though they will turn out to be false, then we know that our strategy may be in trouble. Eventually, the strategy argument needs to be both valid and sound to yield sustained strategic success."

Trechos retirados de “Arguing for Organizational Advantage” de Sorensen, Jesper B.; Carroll, Glenn R.

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