Sobre as empresas em Portugal: factos, surpresas e weirdness

Duas perspectivas que me surpreenderam em "Firmografia: as empresas em Portugal, 2016" da Informa DB.

É importante conhecer os factos, ter uma percepção dos números para evitar dizer baboseiras demasiado evidentes, sem qualquer adesão à realidade.

Estou habituado a ouvir críticas à existência de tantas micro-empresas em Portugal (nunca me esqueço do impacte da legislação na dimensão das empresas). Não tinha a percepção de que quase 23% do volume de negócios estava nas mão destas empresas. Tinha a noção de que essas empresas representavam cerca de 30% do emprego (anda nos 27,5%).

Mais interessante foi o que descobri acerca da idade das empresas e o emprego:

Em 2016:

• mais de 36% das empresas tinham até 5 anos;
• quase 16% do emprego era assegurado pelas empresas que tinham até 5 anos

BTW, há qualquer coisa que não bate certo na tabela que se segue:

Como é que o sector das "Actividades Imobiliárias" só tem 30 555 empregados quando, segundo o IEFP, o mesmo sector, "Actividades imobiliárias, administrativas e dos serviços de apoio", tinha em Dezembro de 2016 mais de 98 600 desempregados registados? E, para quem não conhece os números, sublinho:

• Em Janeiro de 2013 estavam registados no IEFP 108 204 desempregados associados ao sector das "Actividades imobiliárias, administrativas e dos serviços de apoio";
• Em Dezembro de 2017 estavam registados no IEFP 85 744 desempregados associados ao sector das "Actividades imobiliárias, administrativas e dos serviços de apoio".

Um devir permanente

"Considering nature as purely static produces serious errors of apprehension. Nature “selects.” The idea of selects contains implicitly nested within it the idea of fitness. It is “fitness” that is “selected.” Fitness, roughly speaking, is the probability that a given organism will leave offspring (will propagate its genes through time). The “fit” in “fitness” is therefore the matching of organismal attribute to environmental demand. If that demand is conceptualized as static— if nature is conceptualized as eternal and unchanging— then evolution is a never-ending series of linear improvements, and fitness is something that can be ever more closely approximated across time.
...
But nature, the selecting agent, is not a static selector— not in any simple sense. Nature dresses differently for each occasion. Nature varies like a musical score— and that, in part, explains why music produces its deep intimations of meaning. As the environment supporting a species transforms and changes, the features that make a given individual successful in surviving and reproducing also transform and change. Thus, the theory of natural selection does not posit creatures matching themselves ever more precisely to a template specified by the world. It is more that creatures are in a dance with nature, albeit one that is deadly."

O activismo que tanto critico nos governos é em grande medida por causa deste ponto "nature, the selecting agent, is not a static selector". Quantas vezes o mundo, o habitat muda e o apoio dos governos consiste em providenciar recursos para que as organizações aguentem até que o mundo volte ao que era... só que ele não volta ao que era. O que era, o que é, nunca é um destino, mas um devir permanente. Assim, os apoios dos governos apenas atrasam o inevitável choque com a realidade. Quanto mais tarde for esse choque mais as organizações estarão desfasadas da realidade e, por isso, menos hipóteses terão de recuperar uma vida autónoma.

Trechos retirados de "12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos" de  Jordan B. Peterson.

Retratos da economia nacional

"Entre 2012 e 2016, foram as pequenas e médias empresas que apresentaram um melhor desempenho, com um crescimento mais acelerado, quer em volume de negócios, quer em colaboradores. Nas grandes empresas, o número de empregados cresceu mais do que o volume de negócio, revelando alguma perda de produtividade. Já a rentabilidade líquida melhorou em todos os escalões de dimensão, desde 2012. As empresas de controlo nacional foram também as que mais cresceram (+2,9% contra 2,2% nas empresas com controlo estrangeiro), no que respeita a volume de negócios. Em contrapartida, o número de colaboradores aumentou mais nas entidades com controlo estrangeiro.
As empresas familiares – que representam 34% do tecido empresarial – registaram um desempenho positivo, crescendo mais aceleradamente em volume de negócios – 3,3%, contra 1,6% das não familiares. Em contrapartida, as não familiares cresceram mais em emprego (2,7%)." (Fonte)

Em que é que o balanced scorecard é usado?

Ao preparar a sessão de arranque de um workshop intra-empresa sobre o balanced scorecard (BSC) para esta semana, tive a oportunidade de integrar alguns tópicos deste relatório sobre o uso do BSC, "Balanced Scorecard Usage Survey 2017".

Destaco:

"What are Balanced Scorecards being used for?.
Balanced Scorecard’s primary reported role continues to be supporting the implementation of strategy.
...
Strategic management as the major use is consistent with the trend we see for the Balanced Scorecard methodology to be a key element in organisations’ strategy execution. Initiatives are a key part of strategy execution, and so interest in improving the reporting of these is not unexpected.
...
Balanced Scorecard has become established as the primary tool for reporting on strategy implementation / execution progress to Executive level managers, and this continues to be the case. But the increased interest in Balanced Scorecard as a mechanism for incentive payments is a surprise.
...
Balanced Scorecards work by informing and improving decision-making, so they must be reported and reviewed frequently. It is encouraging that over three-quarters of organisations report using their Balanced Scorecards at least once every three months.
...
This year a larger majority (63%) of organisations reported using Balanced Scorecards based on the more effective 3rd Generation designs.
The Balanced Scorecard designs shared some common features:
• they had between 2 and 6 perspectives (average 4), using a mix of sector- specific names and common names for these perspectives
• they contained on average 10 strategic objectives and 14 initiatives, and
• they had on average 21 measures (i.e. 2.1 per objective)."

Respeitar é ser transparente (parte II)

Parte I.

Nas últimas semanas, em várias situações recordo, penso e repenso em:

"aviation has a system where failure is data rich"

Impressionante como a parte I encaixa perfeitamente nesta postura, que desconhecia por completo, do fundador da IKEA:

"Torbjorn Loof had spent days preparing his presentation for Ikea’s annual preview of new products. Back in the 1990s, product managers like himself would show off the latest ideas for flat-pack furniture and other accessories to Ingvar Kamprad, the company’s legendary founder.
.
But after just two minutes of the full-day meeting, Kamprad piped up. “I’m sorry to interrupt you but I want to change the agenda completely,” he told Loof and others present. “I only want to talk about all the mistakes you have made — it’s only through mistakes that you learn.”[Moi ici: Como me dizia o meu parceiro de conversa, quando erramos aprendemos a 100%]
...
the shock of a founder who dared his employees to make mistakes. “He wanted to know who had made the biggest mistakes in Ikea. Sometimes there were prizes for those who had made the biggest. Just imagine that,” he says."

Julgo que só se adopta esta postura perante o erro quando se está preparado e disposto a mudar algo com aquilo que se aprendeu. Se não se aprende com os erros, um erro é um custo. Se se aprende com os erros, então, um erro é um investimento em que se incorreu para tornar a organização menos vulnerável à sua recorrência no futuro.

Trechos retirados de "What will Ikea build next?"


BTW, fiquei parvo com o discurso do director clínico do hospital Pedro Hispano no programa "Sexta às 9" na RTP1 de ontem. Olha, outro assunto em que a SGS devia ser questionada por causa dos certificados que passa.

Conversa de não-fragilista

Conversa de não-fragilista:

"So the idea is you think: what’s the worst case scenario for me? What could my opponent do that would make me worse off?
.
And then you figure out what’s the best strategy against that, so you’re minimizing your maximum loss."

A economia não é um jogo de soma-nula, no entanto, recomendo a leitura de "How to outfox someone who's smarter than you"

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte V)

Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV.

Interessante, depois desta série com este título, encontrar este título, "How GE Went From American Icon to Astonishing Mess". 

Decididamente, Mongo não é gigantes-friendly! Apreciei sobretudo este trecho:

"Since Coffin, GE’s secret weapon—and in a way its dominant product—has been its managers. The company brought organizational rigor to the process of scientific discovery, and scientific rigor to management."

Esta é a mentalidade da tríade, a mentalidade do século XX, a lógica de Taylor.

Mongo precisa de outra abordagem de gestão.

Conseguem imaginar isto? (parte II)

Recordar a parte I sobre como as fábricas da Nissan no Japão perderam a certificação da qualidade ISO 9001.

E em Portugal, depois de se provar a responsabilidade das empresas de celulose na poluição do Tejo, o que dizem as entidades certificadoras responsáveis pela certificação ISO 14001?

Por que é que ninguém mete as entidades certificadoras ao barulho?

Foi o mesmo desafio que lancei há anos sobre Cacia. Pena que os partidos políticos só se metam nisto pelos decibéis. Metendo as entidades certificadoras a responderem a perguntas sobre os certificados que emitem fariam tudo piar mais fino. Assim, ficam caladas à espera de passar incólumes por entre os pingos da chuva.

5 passos

Julgo que estes 5 passos são úteis para muitas empresas.

"#1. Start with a big, undeniable change that creates stakesNo matter what you’re selling, your most formidable obstacle is prospects’ adherence to the status quo. [Moi ici: Recordo logo as forças da inércia(hábito) e da ansiedade que introduzem fricção que bloqueia ou dificulta a mudança] Your primary adversary, in other words, is a voice inside people’s heads that goes, We’ve gotten along just fine without it, and we’ll always be fine without it.
How do you overcome that? By demonstrating that the world has changed in such a fundamental way that prospects have to change, too.
...
#2. Name the enemyLuke fought Vader. Moana battled the Lava Monster. Marc Benioff squared off against software.
One of the most powerful ways to turn prospects into aspiring heroes is to pit them against an antagonist.
...
Naming your customer’s enemy differentiates you — not directly in relation to competitors (which comes off as “salesy”), but in relation to the old world that your competitors represent. To be sure, “circle-slash” isn’t the only way to do that, but once you indoctrinate audiences with your story, icons like this can serve as a powerful shorthand.
...
#3. Tease the “Promised Land”In declaring the old way to be a losing path, Drift plants a question in audiences’ minds: OK, so how do I win?
It‘s tempting to answer that question by jumping right to your product and its capabilities, but you’ll be wise to resist that urge. Otherwise audiences will lack context for why your capabilities matter, and they’ll tune out.
Instead, first present a glimpse of the “Promised Land “— the state of winning in the new world. Remember, winning is not having your product but the future that’s possible thanks to having your product:
...
However you do it, your Promised Land should be both (a) desirable (obviously) and (b) difficult for prospects to reach without you. Otherwise, why do you exist?
.
#4. Position capabilities as “magic” for slaying “monsters”Once audiences buy into your Promised Land, they’re ready to hear about your capabilities. It’s the same dynamic that plays out in epic films and fairy tales: We value Obiwan’s gift of a lightsaber precisely because we understand the role it can play in Luke’s struggle to destroy the Death Star.
So yes, you’re Obiwan and your product (service, proposal, whatever) is a lightsaber that helps Luke battle stormtroopers.
...
#5. Present your best evidenceOf course, even if you’ve laid out the story perfectly, audiences will be skeptical. As they should be, since your Promised Land is by definition difficult to reach!
So you must present evidence of your ability to deliver happily-ever-after. The best evidence is stories about people—told in their own voices—who say you helped reach the Promised Land:"

Trechos retirados deste interessante texto "The Greatest Sales Pitch I’ve Seen All Year"

"It's as much about what you don't do"

A viagem dos heróis

"That’s because it casts the company as a customer-conquering hero:
...
What would it look like if, instead, your positioning was rooted in a story in which the customer was the protagonist? You would have to invite the customer on some kind of journey to a new, presumably happier place:[Moi ici: Se o cliente é o protagonista, então ele não tem de ser convidado para fazer qualquer viagem. É ele que escolhe as viagens que quer fazer, onde quer chegar, que progresso precisa de fazer. Um potencial fornecedor é uma hipótese/ferramenta que ele pode utilizar para atingir esse destino desejado]
...
Regarding competitors, Cancel simply advises:
.
Don’t worry about them at all. [Moi ici: Eheheheh fugir do comportamento à la Dastardly]
What is positioning, if you’re not going to talk about how you’re different from competitors?
.
It’s about becoming so customer-centric that customers don’t even think about your competitors. How do you do that? Like Cancel, start by inviting customers on an irresistible journey. [Moi ici: Percebo a ideia, mas tem de ser melhorada neste ponto de vista do convite. Os fornecedores é que querem ser convidados] The journey must be made urgent by a change in the world that makes the status quo untenable, and its destination must be a desirable yet difficult-to-reach Promised Land. Whereas a traditional positioning statement aims to conquer prospects into submission (getting them to say: “Yes, your products are the best”), positioning via the Promised Land seeks validation (getting them to say: “Yes, you’re telling my story”).
...
I see my role as helping these teams switch metaphors: from the competitor-centric combat one (traditional positioning statement) to the customer-centric journey one (Promised Land narrative). How do I know they’ve got it? When their pitch starts sounding less like an infomercial and more like a movie.
.
Always a movie, though, in which the customer is cast not as territory to be won, but as the hero of his or her own epic adventure."

Recordar "Afinal quem é o herói?"

Trechos retirados de "How Winners Really Differentiate"

O festival de ANTRAIS

A propósito de "Impressão 3D. Uma revolução tão grande como foi a Internet" vamos esquecer a publicidade descarada à HP e mergulhemos no que está à vista e não é verbalizado:

"Daqui a menos de 20 anos, um em cada dois produtos industriais será impresso em 3D. [Moi ici: Acreditemos nestes números só para pensarmos nas consequências. O que vai acontecer ao modelo de produção herdado do século XX? O que vai acontecer ao modelo de emprego gerado pela Revolução Industrial? O que vai acontecer ao ecossistema do comércio herdado do século XX? O que vai acontecer à receita da impostagem sobre os circuitos comerciais do século XX?]
...
“quando a Internet foi inventada, poucas pessoas imaginaram o impacto enorme que ela teria na forma como vivemos e trabalhamos. A impressão 3D pode ser uma repetição da História“. A frase é de um economista do banco holandês ING que elaborou um relatório aprofundado sobre a impressão 3D e sobre as últimas inovações nesta área, capazes de levar esta tecnologia da “infância” atual para uma revolução comparável à Internet. Uma preocupação fundamental do relatório é a seguinte: quando tudo for impresso em 3D, localmente, o que é que vai ser do comércio entre os países ou, por outras palavras, com que é que se vai encher os navios-contentores? ...
com a impressão 3D podem evaporar-se até 40% das trocas comerciais entre os países — não só as que viajam em navios-contentores mas por qualquer outra via. Se a impressão 3D evoluir tão rapidamente quanto se prevê no estudo, quase metade dos produtos irá deixar de ser fabricada num país e, depois, viajar até mais perto do consumidor final. [Moi ici: Interessante, os holandeses concentrados no modelo de negócio principal do país, porto de mar de entrada e saída de bens da Europa]
...
A impressão 3D é mais do que um método de produção alternativo — pode ser uma revolução na forma como quase tudo é produzido, uma revolução no modelo económico que irá permitir mais personalização (e, portanto, mais valor acrescentado e mais receitas) e tempos de entrega mais rápidos, com a produção mais próxima do consumidor. [Moi ici: E mais do que a personalização, a co-criação. Eu, utilizador posso trabalhar em conjunto com o especialista em programação de sapatos para fazer a sapatilha à minha maneira e para o meu pé]
...
Um modelo de produção em impressão 3D envolve menos mão de obra. Conforme os setores, pode poupar-se muito em todo o processo, desde menos pessoas a trabalhar em linhas de montagem até menos funcionários necessários para transportar matérias-primas e produtos.[Moi ici: Um modelo de produção em impressão 3D precisa de empresas ao estilo do século XX? Posso aceder a programas livres ou comprar um serviço de programação a um especialista/designer e ir fazer a impressão na makerspace cooperativa da minha zona]"

Conseguem imaginar o festival de ANTRAIS a pedir aos governos que proíbam a impressão 3D para salvar os modelos do século XX listados lá em cima?

O imediato e o salto

Um destes Sábados fui a uma empresa familiar para ter uma reunião com o responsável da Produção.
.
A certa altura, na sala de reuniões com paredes de vidro, apercebo-me que praticamente todos os membros da família vieram trabalhar nesse dia, um dia em que a fábrica está parada.
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Saltemos agora para "Black Box" de Matthew Syed:

 "By dividing a big challenge into small parts, you are able to create rigorous tests, and thus deliver incremental improvements. Each may seem small or, as Brailsford often says, "virtually negligible," but over time, and with discipline, they accumulate. You eventually reach the optimum point, the summit of the smaller hill. This is the Local Maximum. It is often the difference between winning and losing, whether in sports, business, or speed-eating hot dogs. But this visualization also reveals the inherent limitations of marginal gains. Often in business, technology, and life, progress is not about small, well-delivered steps, but creative leaps. It is about acts of imagination that can transform the entire landscape of a problem. Indeed, these are sometimes the most important drivers of change in the modem world."

Depois de ler este trecho não pude deixar de recordar aquela gente empenhada da fábrica daquele Sábado..

Quando se está tão assoberbado pelo imediato, é difícil o distanciamento para pensar na "Innovative Change". Lembro-me de ler, há muitos anos, que essa era uma das lições da história de Job no Antigo Testamento.

Já depois de escrever o texto acima li:

"epiphanies often happen when we are in one of two types of environment.
.
The first is when we are switching off: having a shower, going for a walk, sipping a cold beer, daydreaming. When we are too focused, when we are thinking too literally, we can't spot the obscure associations that are so important to creativity. We have to take a step back for the "associative state" to emerge." 

Amazing Portugal

Esta tarde circulava de carro enquanto ouvi um noticiário da Rádio Renascença. A certa altura oiço Mário Nogueira, líder da FENPROF, enunciar as conclusões (eu escrevi bem, enunciar as conclusões) de um estudo que vai ser liderado por Raquel Varela e que vai durar vários meses. O estudo ainda nem começou e já têm as conclusões. Extraordinário.

Este é um país onde estas coisas acontecem e os media toleram sem perguntas, sem dúvidas, sem noção do ridículo.

Ontem, o presidente do sindicato dos oficiais de justiça pedia um regime excepcional para aposentação aos 60 anos. Hoje, entre as conclusões que Mário Nogueira enunciou estava: a necessidade de u regime excepcional de aposentação para os professores.

Este é um país que não se enxerga. Criam excepções para quem não está sujeito à Lex Rhodia:

"Now while they jettisoned particular goods, all owners were to be proportioned the costs of the lost merchandise, not just the specific owners. For it turned out that they were following a practice that dates to at least 800 B.C., codified in Lex Rhodia, Rhodian Law, after the mercantile Aegean island of Rhodes; the code is no longer extant but has been cited since antiquity. It stipulates that the risks and costs for contingencies are to incurred equally, with no concern of responsibility. Justinian’s code[6] summarizes it:
“It is provided by the Rhodian Law that where merchandise is thrown overboard for the purpose of lightening a ship, what has been lost for the benefit of all must be made up by the contribution of all.”"[Moi ici: Em caso de crise das contas públicas quem é que cai no desemprego?]

O que é que isto quer dizer?

Esta manhã numa fábrica de calçado, enquanto aguardava ser atendido, comecei a folhear uma revista La Conceria (versão inglesa).

A certa altura deparo com uma nota de rodapé nas páginas iniciais que me pôs a pensar: 1 em cada 4 pares de sapatos comprados na Alemanha são comprados online.

O que é que isto quer dizer para quem produz?

Como alguém, numa outra fábrica de calçado, costuma dizer: os sapatos terão de ser produzidos por alguém.

Sim, mas como é que quem produz estabelece relação com os donos das novas prateleiras? Em que feiras é que eles estão? Será que vão a feiras? Será que eles pensam em épocas ou têm outra frequência mais acelerada? Quem faz parte dos seus ecossistemas?

"To defeat a network, we had become a network"

"There is no such thing as an organizational panacea—the details will always be different for different people, places, and objectives—but we believe that our model provides a good blueprint.
Eventually, we all have to take a leap of faith and dive into the swirl. Our destination is a future whose form we may not find comforting, but which has just as much beauty and potential as the straight lines and right angles of the past century of reductionism: this future will take the form of organic networks, resilience engineering, controlled flooding—a world without stop signs.
...
To defeat a network, we had become a network. We had become a team of teams."

E relacionar este "To defeat a network, we had become a network." com a tendência para trabalhar com ecossistemas e plataformas para moldar um mercado? É claro que a guerra não é uma boa metáfora para o mundo económico, mas dá que pensar.


Trechos retirados de "Team of Teams: The Power of Small Groups in a Fragmented World" de Stanley McChrystal e Chris Fussell.

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

Há dias apanhei este texto, "Craft Beer Is the Strangest, Happiest Economic Story in America". O texto, face ao que se escreve há anos neste blogue, não traz nada de novo. No entanto, é interessante um artigo do mainstream trazer um conjunto de mensagens que por cá são pouco pensadas por quem tem obrigação de preparar as pessoas que vão viver na economia do depois de amanhã.

Ora vejamos:

"The monopolies are coming. In almost every economic sector, including television, books, music, groceries, pharmacies, and advertising, a handful of companies control a prodigious share of the market.[Moi ici: Foi até aqui que nos trouxe o modelo económico do século XX, a crença no eficientismo e, no preço/custo como o principal factor para ganhar clientes/consumidores. Convém não esquecer que nos anos 60 nos Estados Unidos havia um académico, Chamberlin, que queria acabar com as marcas porque iludiam o paradigma da concorrência perfeita introduzindo uma coisa horrorosa, as preferências irracionais]
...
The beer industry has been one of the worst offenders.[Moi ici: Basta pesquisar o marcador cerveja para perceber o quanto é um tema que se segue aqui há anos e até se sonhou no longínquo ano de 2007]"

O artigo começa com factos, 90% da produção de cerveja é da responsabilidade de um duopólio.

"This sort of industry consolidation troubles economists. Research has found that the existence of corporate behemoths stamps out innovation and hurts workers. Indeed, between 2002 and 2007, employment at breweries actually declined in the midst of an economic expansion.[Moi ici: É o eficientismo a funcionar, concentração, automatização, redução da variedade, redução de trabalhadores, unidades cada vez mais produtivas e mais volumosas]
But in the last decade, something strange and extraordinary has happened. Between 2008 and 2016, the number of brewery establishments expanded by a factor of six, and the number of brewery workers grew by 120 percent. Yes, a 200-year-old industry has sextupled its establishments and more than doubled its workforce in less than a decade. Even more incredibly, this has happened during a time when U.S. beer consumption declined.[Moi ici: Por favor, PARAR!!! E voltar a ler este parágrafo]
...
Preliminary mid-2017 numbers from government data are even better. They count nearly 70,000 brewery employees, nearly three times the figure just 10 years ago. Average beer prices have grown nearly 50 percent. So while Americans are drinking less beer than they did in the 2000s (probably a good thing) they’re often paying more for a superior product (another good thing). Meanwhile, the best-selling beers in the country are all in steep decline, as are their producers. Between 2007 and 2016, shipments from five major brewers—Anheuser-Busch, MillerCoors, Heineken, Pabst, and Diageo, which owns Guinness—fell by 14 percent. Goliaths are tumbling, Davids are ascendant, and beer is one of the unambiguously happy stories in the U.S. economy." 

Depois dos factos vêm as interrogações e as estranheza:

"When I first came across these statistics, I couldn’t quite believe them. Technology and globalization are supposed to make modern industries more efficient, but today’s breweries require more people to produce fewer barrels of beer. Moreover, consolidation is supposed to crush innovation and destroy entrepreneurs, but breweries are multiplying, even as sales shrink for each of the four most popular beers:
...
The source of these new jobs and new establishments is no mystery to beer fans. It’s the craft-beer revolution, that Cambrian explosion of small-scale breweries that have sprouted across the country.
...
But what explains the nature of the craft-beer boom?
...
The first cause is something simple yet capricious—consumer tastes. “At the end of the day, the craft-beer movement was driven by consumer demand,” said Bart Watson, the chief economist at the Brewers Association, a trade group. “We’ve seen three main markers in the rise of craft beer—fuller flavor, greater variety, and more intense support for local businesses.”[Moi ici: Tudo coisas que encaixam no nosso modelo de Mongo - não somos plankton, explosão de diversidade e tribos, proximidade e autenticidade]
...
Craft breweries have focused on tastes that were underrepresented in the hyper-consolidated beer market. Large breweries ignored burgeoning niches, ... It’s also significant that the craft beer movement took off during the Great Recession, as joblessness created a generation of “necessity entrepreneurs” who, lacking formal offers, opened small-time breweries.
...
A phalanx of small businesses doesn’t automatically constitute a perfect economy. There are benefits to size. Larger companies can support greater production, and as a result they often pay the highest wages and attract the best talent. But what the U.S. economy seems to suffer from now isn't a fetish for smallness, but a complacency with enormity. The craft-beer movement is an exception to that rule. It ought to be a model for the country."

Os gigantes não resvalam para a "suckiness" por causa de má gestão, mas porque está-lhes no sangue. As vantagens de ser gigante só existem se se produzir grandes séries iguais. Grandes séries iguais têm de apontar ao gosto mais comum, não podem fugir da média. Isto num tempo em que há cada vez mais tribos que valorizam o que é visto pela maioria, cada vez mais pequena, como extremismo. E essas tribos extremistas não transigem.

Esta série não fica por aqui.

Assumir o desafio de mudar um mercado (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

"the host firm of our research study worked actively to shape its markets by embracing not only the new technology and the firm's market offers, but also the unspoken rules, guidelines and evaluation schemes developed over time by the actors in a proposed new market and shared among them.
.
A firm aiming to shape a market needs to have in place a conscious and active market strategy, which demands specific skill sets (often new) and competences, a long-term perspective, and dedicated senior managers who recognize the long-term value of these activities, given that market-shaping strategy does not necessarily deliver short-term financial results).
What is evident from our study is that, to succeed in its market- shaping ambitions, a firm needs to build its recognition and legitimacy and secure market access by placing emphasis on all three levels of influence.
...
a firm seeking to shape the market needs to carry out multiple activities aimed at all three levels of influence and commit multiple resources to that effort if it is to be effective.
...
A market-shaping firm must also be able to balance a range of time horizons and influence levels effectively, so that the inherent activities form reinforcing cycles and support each other.
...
A market-shaping firm thus needs to be proficient in working at different levels of tangibility in its offers, such as abstract levels that cater to general audiences in one-to-many interactions and concrete levels that, for example, demonstrate value propositions in one-to-one interactions. It therefore needs to recruit and develop different competences and skills, such as in customizing the type of information and delivery mode to many customers in different situations. Strategies employed to build the appropriate competences often focus on the training of sales and R & D staff to interact with a variety of kinds of target audiences and communicate different types of information"

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"Not only did print on demand provide an easy way to offer my customers more options, but it was also a simple way to spread brand awareness without having to fill my apartment with inventory.
The world of print-on-demand fashion has revolutionized the side hustle and merchandising game for many entrepreneurs. There is no risk in launching a new T-shirt design in your store because there is no preprinting and inventory required.
...
“E-commerce is all about finding ways to do things faster, cheaper, and easier,” ... “The fact that I can run a profitable business out of my home, with no office space, employees, or startup costs is pretty phenomenal.”
...
Some store owners have taken advantage of these same tools to make hyper-personalized items.
...
Despite these advantages, one of the largest downsides to print on demand remains the price. When no quantities are guaranteed up front, the prices for printing are not cheap, leaving a low profit margin for the seller.
...
Print-on-demand platforms make it easy for artists to list their work on a multitude of shirts, posters, mugs, and so on without testing them in advance. Companies make this variety tempting to give customers a greater selection and increase the chances they’ll make a purchase.
...
In our fast-paced era of online content creation, social media stars with big fan bases are becoming much more common. For smaller stars with dedicated followings, these on-demand opportunities can also be fantastic for creating branded merchandise. YouTubers and podcasters can let their fans be brand ambassadors, spreading the word and growing the hype.
...
But on-demand printing is not limited to fashion. It’s also a wonderful way for writers to self-publish.
...
Overall, on-demand printing and its integration with various platforms is empowering designers and creators alike to take charge over their creative ventures and not be limited by traditional business or industry barriers. It makes small fashion businesses more accessible and brings buyers a more custom experience."

Recordar todos aqueles que têm sempre na boca a inovação, a Indústria 4.0, a IA e, continuam a acreditar que a escala é tudo:

"Hoje em dia, na grande parte das actividades, a escala é muito importante."

E não percebem a dispersão crescente da procura, de como a autenticidade é cada vez mais importante e de como há cada vez menos barreiras à entrada: a democratização da produção.




Trechos retirados de "Technology Shaping the Fashion Industry"

"price fairness perception" (Parte V)

Parte I, parte II, parte III e Parte IV.

"Proposition 5: Managerial overemphasis on customer price fairness perception is negatively related to the extent to which firms practice value-based pricing." 

"“[P]erhaps few ideas have wider currency than the mistaken impression that prices are or should be determined by costs of production”. The prevalence of this notion is perhaps surpassed only by the incorrect perception among both customers and suppliers that cost-based prices are fair. Research in psychology suggests that egocentrism leads to biased fairness judgments —a proposition corroborated by marketing research on price fairness.
...
As deviations from the norm also have a negative influence on price fairness perception, the predominant focus on cost-based pricing in many industries may better explain the biased per- ception of value-based pricing as unfair.
.
Pricing, then, should be based on value rather than costs. Drawing on service-dominant logic ... pricing is a co-creational practice, characterizing it as
.
“a negotiation process in which buyers and sellers jointly assess the value in context for the buyer. In this process, prices eventually get influenced by various customer resources, including their ability to trust the seller, anticipate future transactions (‘give now, take later’), argue about price fairness, and resolve conflicts.”
.
As pricing is based on both parties' joint evaluation, such practices allow both buyer and seller to capture a fair share of value. Nevertheless, firms seem concerned that customers view practices that emphasize value-based pricing as unfair."

Aversão à ambiguidade (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

"Proposition 4: Managerial ambiguity aversion is negatively (positively) related to the extent to which firms practice value-based (cost-based) pricing."

Quanto mais os gestores têm medo da ambiguidade menos praticam o value-based pricing!

"Ambiguity is “the subjective experience of missing information relevant to a prediction”. People tend to avoid decisions based on ambiguous information.
...
Although research has traditionally regarded pricing as simple, it is in practice a difficult process involving vague and uncertain information. As pricing decisions are based on uncertain information concerning risks, managerial ambiguity aversion has practical ramifications for price-setting, aggravated by the need to allocate limited managerial resources (e.g., attention, time, money) to different managerial tasks.
In such circumstances, it is perhaps unsurprising that managers often avoid ambiguity when making decisions and instead rely on simple heuristics.
...
Managers often lack precise information about customer perceived value, which is difficult to collect and evaluate. In contrast, cost information (e.g., unit cost) is often readily available and may appear precise and unambiguous. Although information about customer perceived value remains the most useful for profitable pricing, it is imprecise, ambiguous, and hard to quantify. For that reason, more certain information is given more weight in decision-making.
...
while cost-based pricing is inherently ambiguity- averse, value-based pricing requires managers to accept some degree of ambiguity or vague information. Consequently, only managers who can tolerate ambiguity will be able to commit to value-based pricing practices. In other words, managers should remember “that it is better to be approximately right than to be precisely wrong”

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness" (parte II)

Parte I.

Quem ao longo dos anos segue este blogue, conhece a minha metáfora de Mongo sobre o mundo económico para onde caminhámos, e sobre como esse mundo representa um distanciamento face ao paradigma que formatou as universidades e os cursos de economia e gestão, moldados nos modelos da produção em massa, da escala, daquilo a que chamo de Metropolis ou Magnitogorsk, crentes na racionalidade das decisões.

Quem conhece a metáfora de Mongo, olhe bem para o tweet que se segue:

The explosion of craft brewing could be an early signal of a big shift away from standardized mass market products to tailored creative products, leading to a significant fragmentation of product businesses https://t.co/rF3q7MT48A

— John Hagel (@jhagel) January 27, 2018

Reparem:

"a big shift away from standardized mass market products to tailored creative products, leading to a significant fragmentation of product businesses"

Como isto é nem mais nem menos o que aqui dizemos desde Novembro de 2007:

"Se Chris Anderson tiver razão, e espero bem que sim, trata-se de uma esperança, para as sociedades dos países pequenos. Quanto mais aumentar o poder da cauda longa, mais oportunidades de negócio existirão, para as pequenas empresas, rápidas e flexíveis que apostarem na diferenciação, na diversidade, na variedade. A cabeça pode ficar para os asiáticos, mas a nata das margens, essa ficará para quem, como dizia Jesus Cristo, tiver olhos para ver, e ouvidos para ouvir, a corrente, a tendência de fundo."

Na parte III vamos mergulhar nas implicações das produções "on demand" para na parte IV analisarmos o artigo sobre as cervejas artesanais e o seu simbolismo.

Fugir do preço tout court

Vários exemplos de um caminho viável, pelo menos genericamente, para PME rápidas, com estrutura produtiva ajustada a produções de nicho e com custos de estrutura incompatíveis com a competição pelo volume em:

• Inovafil aposta em fios inovadores para garantir futuro

"quer que 50% da sua produção seja de fios que integrem inovação e sejam um elemento de diferenciação.
...
Para a Inovafil, os fios diferenciadores e de valor acrescentando são a grande aposta, sendo que nos próximos anos a empresa pretende mesmo dedicar até 50% da sua produção aos têxteis técnicos e funcionais, elevando assim a fiação para um novo patamar.
...
“A nossa estratégia é sermos não só moda, mas também desporto, técnicos e funcionais, porque são têxteis que vão deixar de ser um nicho de mercado quando essas funcionalidades começarem a ser introduzidas naquilo que é o nosso vestuário do dia-a-dia”,[Moi ici: Isto pode ser perigoso, também. Recordar o que aprendi com as salamandras. Entretanto, ontem descobri esta frase "HP co-founder David Packard, she warned me that “more companies die of indigestion than starvation."]

• Têxteis. Como eles (e elas) brilham na Alemanha

"A Ispo, a maior feira de artigos desportivos do mundo ainda não começou, mas os têxteis portugueses já estão a contabilizar prémios e recordes com produtos técnicos e funcionais que prometem tornar a roupa do futuro mais leve, confortável, amiga do ambiente.
.
Ao todo, as empresas portuguesas arrecadaram 36 galardões no fórum Ispo Textrends, ... quis, também, lançar um projeto próprio, direcionado para nichos de mercado mais técnicos, onde pode desenvolver o seu gosto por produtos inovadores."

"Giants invariably descend into suckiness"

Pretty good generalization: Giant companies focus on cost cutting/short-term earnings. SMEs focus on value creation/mid- to long-term performance. (Halfway decent generalization: Giants invariably descend into suckiness, some more slowly than others.)

— Tom Peters (@tom_peters) January 25, 2018

Recordar "De que serve a escala em Mongo?"

Recomendo a leitura do texto inicial sobre o plankton, "Are we not plankton?":

"Whales have to eat a lot of plankton. A whale needs an enormous number of these tiny creatures because, let's be honest, one plankton just doesn't make a meal.
...
It's unlikely the whale savors each plankton, relishing the value that it brings.
For most modern marketers, quantity isn't the point. What matters is to matter. Lives changed. Work that made an actual difference. Connection.
.
You are not a plankton. Neither are your customers."

O efeito da soma nula (parte III)

Parte I e parte II. 

"Proposition 3: Managerial perception of pricing as a fixed-pie problem is negatively related to the extent to which firms practice value-based pricing."

"The fixed-pie bias has been defined as “the judgment that one's own interests are diametrically opposed to [those of] one's opponent”. Commonly found in the negotiation literature, this bias prevents integrative negotiations to increase the metaphorical “pie” for both parties. ... For example, ... “[t]he dominant assumption [of managers regarding pricing] is that what is gained by the firm is lost by the customer and vice versa, and that pricing is, in the end, a zero-sum game”
...
A focus on cost-based pricing is common in business markets. As cost-based pricing is myopic (beginning with the product and ending with the customer), marketing must demonstrate value to defend prices. As a consequence, production costs are fixed, and potential customer value is also fixed (or at least constrained). Certainly, pricing appears to be a zero-sum game in such a situation; as price is the only flexible element, one firm's gain is the other's loss. In contrast, value-based pricing begins with the customer and their perception of value; costs and prices are flexible and contingent on customer needs. In other words, the only costs imposed on customers are those necessary to provide the benefits that customers actually want.
...
As a customer-focused practice, value-based pricing can potentially turn business relationships into win-win situations through a better understanding of customers' perceived value, so increasing profits for both customers and suppliers. [Moi ici: Porque não percebia isto, quando em 1992 li Marn & Rosiello chamei-lhes burros. Só anos depois percebi que o burro era eu] However, the more common managerial view is to perceive pricing as a win-lose situation. On this view, superior customer value creation and capturing part of that value in the form of reasonable profit are contradictory objectives, thus inhibiting value- based pricing in business markets."

Sintomas do sorrateiramente

• Sorrateiramente ... (Janeiro 2018)
• Sintomas (Novembro 2017)

Há dias o @hnascim chamou-me a atenção para mais este título "Há cada vez menos portugueses disponíveis para aceitar convites de outras empresas" a que acrescento estes outros dois:

• Em breve, jovens não chegarão para satisfazer necessidades do mercado de trabalho (não concordo com esta visão de que as pessoas não têm filhos por questões financeiras, para mim é uma questão cultural)
• Envelhecimento coloca pressão acrescida ao mercado de trabalho

Vai impor grandes mudanças no mercado de trabalho. Algumas como as que o @nticomuna relata no Twitter, por exemplo:

A GRANDE CONVERGÊNCIA pic.twitter.com/qpRwox1zmd

— anti-comuna (@nticomuna) January 24, 2018

De que serve a escala em Mongo?

Este tema faz-me sempre recuar ao plankton e a Golias:

• Plankton? (Março 2014)
• Mongo não é um mundo gigantes-friendly (parte III) (Janeiro 2016)
• E porque não somos plankton (parte VII) (Julho 2016)
• Será o efeito de Mongo? (Outubro 2017)

Mais um exemplo como a Chobani, "Halo Top raises stakes in ice-cream wars":

"Halo Top sales grew 2,500 per cent year-on-year in 2016; it has taken a 5 per cent scoop of the US ice-cream market within two years.
.
That rate of growth is enough to make multinational food producers choke, given annual sales growth was languishing at an average of 2-3 per cent last year."

Só demonstra como as empresas grandes não têm a vantagem da escala em Mongo.

"Rise above the culture of victimization you see all around you"

"Life is suffering, Peterson reiterates. Don’t be fooled by the naïve optimism of progressive ideology. Life is about remorseless struggle and pain. Your instinct is to whine, to play the victim, to seek vengeance.
...
Rise above the culture of victimization you see all around you. Stop whining. Don’t blame others or seek revenge. “The individual must conduct his or her life in a manner that requires the rejection of immediate gratification, of natural and perverse desires alike.”
.
Instead, choose discipline, courage and self-sacrifice. “To stand up straight with your shoulders back is to accept the terrible responsibility of life.” Never lie. Tell your boss what you really think. Be strict with your children. Drop the friends who bring you down. Break free from the needy mother who controls you."

Trechos retirados de "The Jordan Peterson Moment"

"time, attention, and money"

"But no matter what business you think you are in, recognize that because of the rise of today’s Experience Economy you now compete against the world. You may think your competition is only with other retailers, or only with other companies in your geographic area, but in fact you compete with every other company in the world for the time, attention, and money of individual consumers. There is a reason we use the word “spend” in front of each of these three nouns, for they are the currencies of the Experience Economy.
.
And time is limited. We can only experience twenty- four hours a day, seven days a week – and we have to fit
...
 you need to understand a fundamental principle of the Experience Economy: the experience is the marketing! The best way to generate demand for your retail stores – the mission of marketing – is to create an experience that is so engaging that consumers cannot help but spend time with you, give you their attention, and then buy your merchandise as a result."

Trechos retirados de "Your competition? The world"

Assumir o desafio de mudar um mercado (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"Market offer level.
The exchange object – the value proposition or market offer, including the products and services that make up that offer – is a central element of the understanding of markets. ... “markets are created when actors, dyads, triads, complex networks, and service ecosystems evolve through unique service provision efforts”.
...
the importance of defining what should be exchanged, specifically that the different market actors in a collaborative process need to define that object and the potential value it might have. That value might be idiosyncratically understood and thus differ between actors. A market-shaping strategy thus needs to include an interaction between actors in a market or a channel within it as a value proposition emerges. ... from a marketing management perspective, ... suppliers need to include downstream actors to a greater degree when the suppliers try to grow a market. A sales force, for example, can function as a direct link to the direct customer and other actors when a firm tries to shape market expectations."

Trechos retirados de "Unraveling firm-level activities for shaping markets" de Daniel Kindström, Mikael Ottosson, Per Carlborg, publicado por Industrial Marketing Management 68 (2018) 36–45

Aguardemos pelos desenvolvimentos

Eu só sou um anónimo consultor da província, estudo umas coisas, faço outras e vejo outras ainda. A minha experiência formata-me e condiciona o meu pensamento e o campo de possibilidades que antevejo.

Por isso, esta semana, numa empresa com um comportamento semelhante ao das bolas vermelhas da figura:

Perguntaram-me, qual o principal problema das empresas portuguesas (PME)?

Pensei no tecto de vidro, mas evitei a expressão e, apresentei esta figura.

Ontem, ao ler "ACO Shoes cresce à boleia da Europa de Leste" pensei numa frase recente de Nassim Taleb:

"l'entrepreneur peut tout perdre ou travailler sans compter son temps. Mais c'est grâce à ce genre de folie individuelle qu'une société fonctionne."

O que é que sublinhei? Por um lado, aquilo que é a base do sucesso actual:

"Especializada em calçado de conforto, a ACO produz 1,5 milhões de pares de sapatos, cerca de cinco mil pares por cada dia útil da semana."

Depois, por outro lado, aquilo em que a empresa pretende apostar no futuro:

"Para 2018, a empresa está a apostar em produtos de alto valor acrescentado, através da criação de um calçado mais técnico, e que se insere numa estratégia virada para o mercado português." 

Acredito que esta aposta para 2018 foi mal apanhada pela jornalista, justificação mais benévola, tal a falta de alinhamento.

Primeiro: a proposta de valor para vender sapato de conforto é diferente da proposta de valor para vender sapato técnico;
Segundo: os comerciais que vendem uma coisa têm de usar outra argumentação para vender outra;
Terceiro: as prateleiras onde se vendem uns sapatos são diferentes das prateleiras onde se vendem os outros;
Quarto: alto valor acrescentado para o mercado português é quase um oxímoro. Tirando brincadeiras e experiências de bolso o mercado português não suporta produções de alto valor acrescentado.

No entanto, eu só sou um consultor anónimo. Aguardemos pelos desenvolvimentos.

Assumir o desafio de mudar um mercado (parte II)

Parte I.

"System level...
This is the level at which norms and regulations set the boundaries and rules for an entire market. A narrow focus on the customer is essential but not enough for shaping a market; instead, an understanding of the whole system, including a focus on downstream actors, becomes important. To understand the system implies an understanding of the institutions as “humanly devised rules, norms, and meanings that enable and constrain human action”, and also of the institutional arrangements, such as interdependent networks of institutions. As institutions and institutional arrangements are set up by individuals, the arrangements are neither static nor pre-conceived. Instead, they are representations of the interests of different groups and can thus be acted upon and influenced, by means of an iterative and dynamic process described as ‘institutionalization’, which may involve suppliers and customers as well as other actors. As institutions have a strong influence on the actions of firms and individuals, it can be beneficial to try to influence them and thereby influence the direction in which a market develops. Consequently, addressing the system level is an essential aspect of market shaping."

Trechos retirados de "Unraveling firm-level activities for shaping markets" de Daniel Kindström, Mikael Ottosson, Per Carlborg, publicado por Industrial Marketing Management 68 (2018) 36–45

O efeito de rebanho (parte II)

Parte I.

O segundo viés cognitivo é o do efeito de rebanho.

"Proposition 2: The extent of managerial price herding is negatively related to the extent to which firms practice value-based pricing."

O que é isto do efeito de rebanho?

"Herding is defined as individual disregard of private information, instead basing decisions on the observed actions of the majority. In so doing, individuals assume that decisions taken by the majority constitute valuable information for their own decision-making.
...
In the context of pricing, managers who engage in herding deliberately disregard private information (e.g., about customers' purchase history) and instead conform to market prices. The assumption underlying this herding effect is that market prices constitute a viable point of reference. Managers may resort to herding because they believe that competitor prices reveal information about the market, or that pricing like one's competitors seems a justifiable tactic. ... many firms evade responsibility for pricing decisions by following market or competitor prices instead. Managers “do not want to stand alone when they increase the prices if the competition does not move”. In other words, managers fear accountability in the event of an unfavorable outcome. This suggests that herding's foundations may be motivational as well as cognitive. On the other hand, ... firms that “set the rules of the game” —do not hand over pricing responsibility to the market but instead price strategically. In other words, these firms consider pricing to be a matter of meticulous managerial activity.
...
companies that simply match competitors' prices irrespective of cost and customer considerations are mimicking those competitors rather than analyzing them; this is not competition-based pricing but rather indicates a herd mentality.
...
That said, the weight of the evidence suggests that price herding is habitual rather than strategic. Consequently, a herd mentality is myopic, as it typically neglects distinct product characteristics, and increases the likelihood of price wars. That being so, it becomes important to understand product differences and to withstand competitive price pressure.
The fundamental issue with price herding is its reactive nature and its disregard for potentially useful information about cost and customer value. Moreover, a strong emphasis on market and competitor prices diverts managerial attention from the effort to comprehend customer perceived value. [Moi ici: Recordar Dastardly] It also distracts from efforts to comprehend the strategic actions of competitors (e.g., their pricing strategy) and to observe or anticipate market developments (e.g., changes in market structure or segments)."

Trechos retirados de "Value-based pricing and cognitive biases: An overview for business markets" de Mario Kienzler e publicado online por Industrial Marketing Management.

Arrancar com o sistema de gestão (parte I)

Realizámos uma sessão de Kick-off com a gestão de topo onde usámos o material preparado nesta série de postais.

Vamos arrancar com a primeira sessão de trabalho na próxima semana. Eis o plano que preparei para a mesma:

Na sequência da sessão de Kick-Off do Projecto ISO 9001 ficamos comprometidos para arrancar com a vertente estratégica do sistema de gestão num "retiro" a realizar a 2 e 3 de Março.

Entretanto, para o próximo dia 29 de Janeiro ficamos de arrancar com a vertente operacional do sistema de gestão. Proponho que na reunião abordemos os seguintes temas:

• Desenharmos uma forma simples de divulgar o projecto e o seu arranque a toda a empresa. Algo que permita responder a:

O que comunicar? (O porquê do projecto, por que é importante para a empresa. Qual o papel de cada um, quem é a equipa do projecto, qual a duração prevista para o projecto)
Quando vamos comunicar e a quem?
Como vamos comunicar e quem vai comunicar (podem ser diferentes pessoas para diferentes grupos se necessário)

• Estrutura documental do sistema de gestão (qual o propósito de cada tipo de documento)

Manual do sistema;
Fichas de processo;
Instruções de trabalho;
Impressos.

• O que diz a ISO 9001:2015 sobre a documentação (ver cláusula 7.5, por causa das regras de identificação, criação, aprovação, divulgação e controlo)
• O que diz a ISO 9001:2015 sobre instruções de trabalho (ver cláusula 4.4.2)
• A ISO 9001:2015 obriga a desenhar o mapa da interacção dos processos (cláusula 4.4.1 b)). 

Tenho uma base de trabalho que criei a pensar na empresa. É uma base de trabalho que vamos ter de afinar entre nós os dois, e conversando com a gestão de topo para termos uma versão final em que se revejam. Ainda que não seja a versão final, podemos fazer uma tabela para depois ser preenchida para relacionar processos com intervenientes. A ideia será pedir depois aos responsáveis que indiquem, para cada processo, quem deve ser ouvido por nós ao cartografar a descrição do processo

"Gaining understanding is not always the same as predicting"

Algo interessante sobre a ilusão do Big Data, de que falo aqui há algum tempo e que McChrystal descreve de forma mais eloquente:

"The industrial world, where almost everything could be measured and mechanized—where individual variables could be isolated, tested, and optimized—lent itself to this model. As complicated as it was, it almost all lay under the manager’s capacity for calculation, prediction, and control. Planned efficiency became the lifeblood of “good management.” Everything else, from physical design to organizational structure to leadership behavior, was a natural extension of this goal.
.
As we have crept toward the “many to many” environment of complexity, we have engineered increasingly complicated solutions: gifted managers have developed intricate protocols and organizational hierarchies to cover all likelihoods. The baseline belief that any problem can be known in its entirety has never faded. Anyone who has worked in business or government for a few decades can testify to the seemingly endless increases in rules and paperwork.
...
We hear a great deal about the wonders of “Big Data,” which certainly has advanced our understanding of the world in dramatic ways. Retailers can track who bought what, and where they bought it. Sociologists can sift through vast amounts of political, economic, and societal information searching for patterns. There is tremendous potential for this technology, but, as with Blue Force Tracker and the other tools at our disposal in Iraq, it is unlikely that it will enable effective long- term prediction of the type that we crave. Data-rich records can be wonderful for explaining how complex phenomena happened and how they might happen, but they can’t tell us when and where they will happen. For instance, data on the spread of a virus can provide an insight into how contagion patterns look in our networked world, but that is very different from knowing exactly where the next outbreak will occur, who precisely will end up getting sick, and where they will go next. Gaining understanding is not always the same as predicting.
...
Big Data will not save us because the same technological advances that brought us these mountains of information and the digital resources for analyzing them have at the same time created volatile communication webs and media platforms, taking aspects of society that once resembled comets and turning them into cold fronts. We have moved from data-poor but fairly predictable settings to data-rich, uncertain ones."

Trechos retirados de "Team of Teams: The Power of Small Groups in a Fragmented World" de Stanley McChrystal e Chris Fussell.

Assumir o desafio de mudar um mercado

Mergulhar naquilo que passa ao lado de muita gente que olha para a cláusula 4.2 da ISO 9001:2015

"We have already noted the consensus among authors that firms act on markets and shape them, with such other stakeholders as suppliers and customers, as opposed to merely targeting selected existing segments.
...
Focal actors can thus influence markets – both new as well as mature markets – not only by persuasion of existing targets via such conventional marketing activities as selling and promotion but also by learning and developing their knowledge of both the market itself and the other actors within it, in a market- shaping process.
.
It is thus possible to discern a move away from the dominant marketing metaphor that emphasizes markets as preexisting, to be targeted and acted upon, to one that treats them as elements of ongoing processes, to be influenced and shaped by the actors involved through their own activities, and through the coordinated activities of multiple actors. Markets are thus being continuously shaped and reshaped, and our understanding of the market-shaping processes involved can be enhanced by examining the activities in those markets.
...
market changes can be seen as a response to actions, practices or ongoing activities
...
In our research, we have chosen the term ‘market shaping’ to describe the composite activities involved in shaping markets, including active and conscious choices aiming at shaping the market structure and shaping market behavior. In market shaping, a broad range of technological, exchange-related and institutional activities are deployed by the main actor in the process to influence and shape a target market.
...
Market-shaping activities cover a broad range: some have an operational firm-oriented focus, such as in individual selling situations, while others have a strategic, long-term and network-oriented focus, such as the changing of market norms and the way business is done in a particular market. They thus can act on a multitude of levels, spanning such activities as negotiating prices and conducting sales meetings, to increasingly systemic activities performed with long-term objectives in mind. In other words, market-shaping activities can take place and have their effect at different levels of influence, which we define here as ‘system’, ‘market offer’ and ‘technology’."

Como não relacionar este tema com o postal anterior e o enfoque no locus de controlo. Uma equipa de gestão de uma PME portuguesa assumir o desafio de mudar um mercado.

BTW, um aviso:

"Complex systems are fickle and volatile, presenting a broad range of possible outcomes; the type and sheer number of interactions prevent us from making accurate predictions. As a result, treating an ecosystem as though it were a machine with predictable trajectories from input to output is a dangerous folly."

Trechos retirados de "Unraveling firm-level activities for shaping markets" de Daniel Kindström, Mikael Ottosson, Per Carlborg, publicado por Industrial Marketing Management 68 (2018) 36–45

Nada atraente

o Paulo Peres chamou-me a atenção para um artigo que me parece muito bom, "Value-based pricing and cognitive biases: An overview for business markets" de Mario Kienzler e publicado online por Industrial Marketing Management. O artigo lida com 4 vieses cognitivos que afectam a temática do pricing por parte dos agentes económicos.

Mal comecei a ler o artigo apreciei a quantidade de autores que ao longo dos anos li e que agora aparecem num texto sobre pricing. Nomes como: Kahneman, Gigerenzer e Ariely. Depois, quando encontro uma relação entre um tema que há longos anos aqui tenho referido, o locus de controlo, com o pricing, foi ouro sobre azul. 

Vejamos então o primeiro viés cognitivo: A percepção da falta de controlo.

"Proposition 1: The extent of managers' internal (external) LOC is positively (negatively) related to the extent to which firms practice value- based pricing."

Racional para isto?

"Control is an important concept in psychology and sociology, frequently operationalized as a subjective, domain-specific, and outcome- oriented construct related to locus of control (LOC) ... individuals with an external LOC perceive luck, coincidence, or influ-ential others as shaping external events that they must passively bear.
..
Research in psychology has frequently investigated the illusion of control—that is, overestimation of one's perceived control in chance situations. In contrast, perceived lack of control is defined as the tendency to underestimate one's control over events. The evidence suggests that people tend to under- estimate their control in situations where they actually have control.
.
In the context of pricing, perceived lack of control manifests as a subjective perception of managerial control over pricing that leads to a concrete price outcome. As such, a range of evidence suggests that LOC affects managerial pricing practices. More precisely, managers with an external LOC react positively to pricing practices that emphasize cost- or competition-based pricing.
...
many managers believe they have no control over pricing and that “‘we determine our costs and take our industry's traditional margins’ or ‘the market sets the price and we have to figure out how to cope with it.’”
...
entrepreneurs with an external locus of control prefer low-cost strategies—that is, strategies with a focus on costs and low prices.
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Managers characterized by perceived lack of control over pricing are passive and rely on docile pricing practices such as adding a margin to costs or matching market prices. In contrast, value-based pricing requires managers to actively and confidently influence pricing through their behavior—a view associated with an internal LOC."

Depois destes sublinhados, regresso ao primeiro postal, de 2007, onde mencionei aqui o tema locus de controlo e a duas perguntas que fiz na altura:

"E quando um gestor tem o seu Locus de Controlo no exterior?.
Aparecem-nos comportamentos deste tipo.
Os telejornais, os foruns, os jornais e as antenas abertas, são o palco para quem se queixa dos chineses, esses malvados, ou dos espanhóis, ou dos polacos, ou dos marroquinos, ou dos portuenses, ou dos lisboetas, ou dos bracarenses... a culpa é sempre dos outros.
...
E quando numa comunidade a maioria dos seus membros tem o seu Locus de Controlo no exterior? Nada atraente!!!"

"enjoy the “quiet life.”"

"In competitive markets, managers have a strong incentive to give their best effort. But economists have long argued that when companies are insulated from competition, their managers may not be motivated to maximize the profit of the firm and instead may choose to enjoy the “quiet life.” Similarly, without sufficient monitoring by owners of the firms or the stock market, managers might be tempted to enjoy the quiet life instead of making hard decisions or taking on difficult tasks.
...
Taken together, our results are consistent with the quiet life hypothesis. Without competition or monitoring, managers do seem to put off hard decisions."

Trechos retirados de "The “Quiet Life” Hypothesis Is Real: Managers Will Put Off Hard Decisions If They Can"