"It Starts with Strategy"

"the seven steps any business must take to build a robust marketing system.
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1. It Starts with Strategy...
you’ve got to start with strategy, and strategy starts with knowing your ideal customer.
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If you don’t understand who your ideal customer is—their core problems and the value you bring to every engagement—how can you possibly find a message that resonates and identify the tactics that will work?
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The short answer is that you can’t. Every great marketing strategy is rooted in pinpointing your ideal customer and honing in on the ways they want to interact with a business. Only once you’ve established your ideal client can you begin to connect what you offer with how you solve your customer’s problems.
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3. Content Has Risen to the Strategic Level.
Don’t conflate the word “content” with “blog post.” Content is way bigger than that.
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Content allows us to take the promise that we made to solve a problem and expand that so we can dominate search, social media, and all other places online where prospects are looking for answers about our brand.
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We like to use content hubs to create one-stop-shops for the kind of informative, meaningful content that addresses a customers’ needs anywhere along the journey. Hub pages are designed to bring together all relevant information on a certain topic on one page. Think of them as the table of contents for a great online book in your area of expertise.
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Whether someone’s just discovering your business, are coming back for one last look before they make a first purchase, or are sharing information about you with a friend looking for a referral, content hubs have something for everyone.
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Content hubs are not only great resources on your website, they help improve your ranking in SEO and ensure that it’s easier for new audiences to discover your business."

Trechos retirados de "Building a Marketing System in 7 Steps"

E se não resulta?

"El sector de la cosmética se lo disputan dos públicos: millenials y selenials. Las primeras, de treinta y tantos, beben de la tecnología y son adictas al maquillaje. Las segundas, mujeres a partir de 50 y que pertecen a la llamada «generación silver», tienen el poder adquisitivo y son las que invierten en productos de valor añadido. Gastan unos 200 euros anuales de media y son las que tiran del sector, «un pilar fundamental para la industria», ya que representan la mitad del gasto, según la directora de Consumer&Market de L’Óreal, Estefanía Yágüez.
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Así lo desvela la consultora Kantar Worldpanel, que ha hecho un estudio sobre el mercado de belleza entre los senior para L’Óreal España. Según sus cifras, las llamadas selenials (mezcla de senior y millenial) acaparan el 47% del gasto en belleza. De los 4.758 millones invertidos en cosmética cada año en España, 2.190 corresponden a este segmento de edad.
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Este fenómeno selenial está «impulsado por una mayor disponibilidad económica, por un aumento del interés por cuidarse y su mayor capacidad de adaptación a las nuevas tecnologías». Es el segmento de población donde más ha crecido el uso de internet. «Se trata de un tipo de consumidora inconformista, con confianza en sí misma, que desea cuidarse y se acepta tal y como es», señala Yágüez.
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En España hay 13 millones de compradores de productos de belleza de más de 55 años, de los cuales 7 millones son mujeres. De cada 10 euros gastados por seniors en cosmética, siete los desembolsan mujeres. Esto las convierte «en el mayor nicho de negocio para el sector».
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Las selenials adquieren cosméticos una media de 22 veces al año, superando los 200 euros anuales. Lo que más compran, según los datos de Kantar, son cremas faciales (el 33%), seguido de perfumes y fragancias (32%) y maquillaje (12%)."

Quantas empresas precisam de descobrir este nicho?
Ainda esta semana cá em casa andaram à procura de calçado para alguém acima desta faixa etária e não é fácil encontrar algo de jeito.

Trabalhar para este nicho, trabalhar para qualquer nicho, implica conhecer o cliente para perceber o que é valor para ele. Não é com design e critérios para jovens que se seduzem selenials.

Quantas empresas estão dispostas a fazer as mudanças que o trabalho para um nicho exige? Parece um bom trade-off? E não há riscos na mudança? O sucesso é garantido? E deitar fora o seguro para abraçar o arriscado? E se não resulta?

BTW, recordar "Anichar".

Trechos retirados de "Las ‘selenials’ sostienen la industria cosmética" publicado pelo El Mundo de ontem.

Curiosidade do dia

A propósito do perfil das principais exportações portuguesas em volume:

Se removerem da equação o automóvel e os combustíveis fósseis o que acontece?

Gente com saídas simples para situações complexas são um perigo sedutor.

Um momento definidor

O jornal espanhol "El Economista" de ontem defende:

No entanto, ao ler "Coronavirus Outbreak Exposes China’s Monopoly on U.S. Drug and Medical Supply Industry":

"The coronavirus outbreak has exposed the United States’ dangerous dependence on China for pharmaceutical and medical supplies, including an estimated 97 percent of all antibiotics and 80 percent of the active pharmaceutical ingredients needed to produce drugs in the United States."

E ao ler "¿‘Made in’ China? El coronavirus amenaza el ‘sourcing’ de los gigantes de la moda":

"El coronavirus impacta de lleno en el corazón del sourcing de moda. La epidemia ha cerrado fábricas y ha limitado los envíos desde la mayor fábrica de ropa del mundo, China, donde se aprovisionan, en mayor o menor medida, todos los gigantes del sector. La crisis sanitaria amenaza la campaña primavera-verano y pone en riesgo los precios para otoño-invierno, la segunda (y mayor) temporada del año. 

Las empresas que concentran su aprovisionamiento en China serán las más afectadas. En cambio, aquellas que tiene un sourcing flexible están comenzando ya a adaptar sus pedidos. Portugal, en menor medida, Turquía y Marruecos son los países a los que la mayoría de compañías están mirando. Sin embargo, los tres países juntos no pueden absorber la capacidad de producción de China.[Moi ici: O banhista gordo]"

Sinto-me tentado a pensar que este é um momento definidor de um novo ciclo de relacionamento com as fábricas chinesas.

O que mais ninguém lhe conta

Na AppleMagazine de 7 de Fevereiro último encontrei este trecho:

"At Rosendale Dairy, each of the 9,000 cows has a microchip implanted in an ear that workers can scan with smartphones for up-to-the-minute information on how the animal is doing —everything from their nutrition to their health history to their productivity. Feed is calibrated to deliver a precise diet and machines handle the milking. In the fields, drones gather data that helps bump up yields for the row crops grown to feed the animals.
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Technology has played an important role in agriculture for years but it’s become a life and death matter at dairy farms these days, as low milk prices have ratcheted up pressure on farmers to seek every possible efficiency to avoid joining the thousands of operations that have failed."

9 mil vacas...

E recordei estes números:

"Em 2011, num postal, publiquei estes números:
"Terceiro: Quantas vacas existem em média numa exploração leiteira
Na Roménia? 1,5
Em Portugal? 18 (em 2010); 10 (em 1995)
Em Espanha? 42 (em 1995)
Em França? 60 (em 1995)
Na Alemanha? 55 (em 1995)
Na Dinamarca? 69 (em 1995)
No estado do Wisconsin? 98 (em 2010)"
 Apesar de tudo, foi com algum espanto que na quinta-feira à noite, via @nticomuna cheguei a este número "Over half of US dairy herds now milk over 900 cows"

Como é que num negócio em que o que conta é o preço (logo o custo), uma exploração com 30 vacas, ou 50 vacas, pode competir com uma de 500 ou de 900 vacas? (900 é só o número médio)
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Não pode! Daí nasce o apelo ao activismo político, ao proteccionismo, ao barulho da rua. É assim que a distribuição grande pode, ao longo dos anos, comprar cada vez mais barato. Uma parte dos produtores cresce muito depressa e torna-se muito mais competitivo que os outros e aceita, ou até propõe, preços mais baixos para ganhar quota de mercado.

Acerca da evolução do retalho

"It has been a tough decade for brick-and-mortar retailers, and matters seem only to be getting worse.
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Despite a strong consumer economy, physical retailers closed more than 9,000 stores in 2019 — more than the total in 2018, which surpassed the record of 2017.
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Some people call what has happened to the shopping landscape “the retail apocalypse.” It is easy to chalk it up to the rise of e-commerce, which has thrived while physical stores struggle.
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But this can be overstated.
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Collectively, three major economic forces have had an even bigger impact on brick-and-mortar retail than the Internet has.
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In no particular order, here they are:
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• Big Box Stores: In the United States and elsewhere, we have changed where we shop — away from smaller stores like those in malls and toward stand-alone “Big Box” stores. ...

• Income Inequality: Rising income inequality has left less of the nation’s money in the hands of the middle class, and the traditional retail stores that cater to them have suffered. ...

• Services Instead of Things: With every passing decade, Americans have spent proportionately less of income on things and more on services. Stores, malls, and even the mightiest online merchants remain the great sellers of things."

Trechos retirados de "Never Mind the Internet. Here’s What’s Killing Malls."

Dá que pensar ... (parte II)

Parte I.

Portugal, especialista na produção de calçado de couro.

Futuro do calçado de couro...

"Overall, the answers to our survey suggest that sneakers and other sports related footwear will grow in market share, over the next three years, and leather footwear will continue losing it."

Interessante, nem sinal de um coronavírus...

A partir de "Business model risk and uncertainty factors: Toward building and maintaining profitable and sustainable business models" de Anne-Sophie Brillinger, Christian Els, Bjorn Schafer e Beate Bender, publicado por Business Horizons (2020) 63, 121-130.

Exemplos do que pode ser considerado ao determinar riscos relevantes para uma organização.

Acerca dos clientes:

Acerca da oferta (produto/serviço):

Acerca da viabilidade financeira:

Acerca do ambiente:

Interessante, nem sinal de um coronavírus...

Dá que pensar...

Mão amiga fez-me chegar um relatório publicado pela APICCAPS, "World Footwear Business Conditions Survey Issue 1".

Logo a abrir o relatório apanhamos este gráfico:

"In the first semester of 2019, international footwear trade showed divergent patterns around the world. Imports to the largest European markets (Germany, France, Italy, UK, Belgium) decreased from 2% to 6%, and 3% for the European Union as whole. But imports to the largest market in the world, the USA, increased by 4%, as did imports to Canada and Japan."

Sabendo do peso do mercado europeu para receber as exportações portuguesas ... dá que pensar.

Pricing power

Mais um excelente artigo de Stephen Liozu sobre pricing. Desta vez "Make pricing power a strategic priority for your business" publicado por Business Horizons (2018).

"Pricing power has little to do with pricing; it mostly concerns innovation and differentiation.
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More compelling is the lack of significance found in the relationship between competitive intensity and pricing power.
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The research results indicate that the appropriate response to competitive pressures might not be more price competition or potentially fatal price wars but more innovation to improve the level of true differentiation.
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This study also demonstrates a positive and significant link between pricing power and firm performance as defined in terms of EBIT, sales growth, and EBIT growth–—also a first.
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This research further confirms that pricing power increases profit power. A similar study conducted in 2011 showed that superior pricing power leads to superior financial results when comparing the stock value of the top performers in pricing power with the S&P 500 index over a 10-year period.
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But pricing power does not come on its own; it must be intentionally captured. A firm might have the necessary market position to capture pricing power through innovation, differentiation, and customer management, but its leaders might not understand where their pricing power resides and how to capture it fully."

Uma espécie de esquema Ponzi

Às vezes fico a pensar que um número demasiado elevado de empresas vive à custa de um esquema Ponzi.

Fazem negócio com um cliente apesar de perderem dinheiro. Depois, quando chega a hora de pagar as contas é com o dinheiro recebido do cliente seguinte, e assim sucessivamente. Quando, por qualquer motivo, o próximo cliente ou o outro a seguir não aparecem... não há qualquer almofada que ampare o choque. O choque é brutal e mortal. O choque é tanto mais violento quanto mais longo o período anterior de bonança.

Imagino o ministro dos Negócios Estrangeiros, Santos Silva, a sorrir e a dizer Q.E.D.

Como se o governo fosse diferente do "magma" de onde emerge:

"Portugal fechou o ano de 2019 com uma dívida pública de 249,74 mil milhões de euros, montante que representa um agravamento real de 600 milhões de euros relativamente ao valor contabilizado no final de 2018, informou o Banco de Portugal em nota de informação estatística divulgada segunda-feira em Lisboa."

Incerteza e riscos

"The Chinese province where the virus originated, with a population greater than South Korea, is under quarantine, while streets are empty and factories sit idle. How this plays out is uncertain, but what is certain is that the virus has the potential to change China in fundamental ways — and even if it does not, it should change the way we think about China.
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The only thing that is certain is that we cannot assume China’s future will resemble its recent past." (Fonte: "The most lasting impact of coronavirus" publicado no Washington Post de ontem)

"China’s coronavirus outbreak has scrambled the global trade in commodities, hitting the country’s massive appetite and challenging global supply lines set up to feed it. Markets for essentials like natural gas, copper and pork have all swooned amid worry over a broad weakening of demand. Prices for some natural resources are plumbing multiyear lows. Chinese companies are canceling orders for crude oil and other commodities, and the country’s once-heaving ports are quieter. Analysts say the disruption could be long lasting, as stockpiles of commodities grow and ships lay idle." (Fonte "Virus ShakesUp Global Supply Lines" publicado no Wall Street Journal de ontem)

Entretanto, mandaram-me um e-mail com este texto:

"Depois da Kuka, da KraussMaffei, da Putzmeister, de parte da Osram e tantas outras, continua o take-over tecnológico silencioso…

• Link 1
• Link 2

Há dias ao ler um jornal espanhol fiquei a matutar na situação alemã:

• a herdeira de Merkel demite-se
• cerca de 100 mil empregos na indústria automóvel em risco com a disrupção em curso

A Alemanha é a locomotiva económica europeia por excelência.

A China com o primeiro trimestre de 2020 arruinado, pelo menos esse.

Como é que a sua empresa está a preparar-se para o impacte destes fenómenos?

Mergulhar no iceberg

Saltar do ram-ram habitual, fugir da superficialidade dos eventos desgarrados e mergulhar no iceberg

"Our actions are most likely to revert to what is habitual when we are in a state of fear or anxiety. Collective actions are no different. Even as conditions in the world change dramatically, most businesses, governments, schools, and other large organizations, driven by fear, continue to take the same kinds of institutional actions that they always have. This does not mean that no learning occurs. But it is a limited type of learning: learning how best to react to circumstances we see ourselves as having had no hand in creating. Reactive learning is governed by "downloading" habitual ways of thinking, of continuing to see the world within the familiar categories we're comfortable with. We discount interpretations and options for action that are different from those we know and trust.

All learning integrates thinking and doing. In reactive learning, thinking is governed by established mental models and doing is governed by established habits of action.
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 We act to defend our interests. In reactive learning, our actions are actually reenacted habits, and we invariably end up reinforcing pre-established mental models. Regardless of the outcome, we end up being "right." At best, we get better at what we have always done. We remain secure in the cocoon of our own worldview, isolated from the larger world.
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All learning integrates thinking and doing. All learning is about how we interact in the world and the types of capacities that develop from our interactions. What differs is the depth of the awareness and the consequent source of action.

Deeper levels of learning create increasing awareness of the larger whole—both as it is and as it is evolving—and actions that increasingly become part of creating alternative futures.
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If awareness never reaches beyond superficial events and current circumstances, actions will be reactions. If, on the other hand, we penetrate more deeply to see the larger wholes that generate "what is" and our own connection to this wholeness, the source and effectiveness of our actions can change dramatically."

Trechos retirados de "Presence: Exploring Profound Change in People, Organizations and Society" de  Betty Sue Flowers, C. Otto Scharmer, Joseph Jaworski e Peter M. Senge.

Value - where, how, who, when

"The fact that customers and firms have different value-creating processes implies value is created in different domains and is no longer entirely in the firm’s control. Managers are increasingly aware of the need to understand customers’ roles in firms’ activities, such as those evident in service process blueprinting or customer journeys. The increasing roles of customer participation amplifies the need tounderstanding how customers orchestrate value.
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Rather than the components of a service being absolute, they are treated as relative to alternative services and evaluated against an individual reference point. In other words, aspects beyond the exchange, product, service or interaction may constitute value as experienced by the customer. Sometimes value elements are invisible to the firm and independent of the firm. Moreover, value is not only inherent in the offering itself but also in elements only indirectly related to a specific service provider. In other words, customer value can be conceptualized as including both customer-defined and relativistic aspects with value-adding or value-decreasing characteristics.
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Where is value created? Researchers suggest that value is formed in three domains: in the company’s world through value-in-exchange; through co-creation through customer-company interactions, that is, joint value creation; and in the customers’ world through value-in-use, otherwise known as independent value creation. Value arises in customers’ internal and external contexts based on both individual and collective elements. Hence, value is not only based on customers’ experiences with provider-created elements but can emerge outside the domain of the service provider in the customer’s world. We will now turn to a discussion of how value is created, who creates value, and when value created.
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How is value created? As mentioned, value is seen as inherent in the interaction between the customer and provider, but value also emerges through interactions with other customers. Recognizing the impact of other customers on value formation, we acknowledge that value is created based on individual and communal experiences.
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Who creates value? Value co-creation research highlights the important contributions of the customer to the value creation process. Recently there has been a shift away from dyadic value creation to a focus on networks and systems, to the interaction among multiple actors, and more recently to ecosystems. Despite this, practitioner and researcher attention to communal and networked value is low. The lack of attention to the communal influence of customers on value is problematic, as different forms of communities increasingly network and link customers and customer-to-customer interactions are increasingly relevant sources of value.
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When is value created? Classic service research focuses on service encounters which implies that value is created solely within the service interaction. In contrast, a relationship marketing perspective emphasizes a longer timeframe that includes both before and after purchase. Irrespective of these differences in length, the underlying backdrop is the customers’ experience of the time of the service process. More recently, a broader notion of time has been called for that includes consideration of the past, present, and the future of the customer, not just the service process. Accepting that value is created not only in the interaction between the customer and the provider (and service system) extends the time-frame of value to the cumulated reality as experienced by the customer."

Trechos retirados de "Strategies for creating value through individual and collective customer experiences" de Kristina Heinonen, Colin Campbell e Sarah Lord Ferguson, publicado por Business Horizons 2018.

Pobre país este!

Desta manhã:

Portugal a ser ultrapassado por tudo e por todos. E assim continuará: nestes últimos 5 anos não foi passada uma única medida estrutural capaz de alterar o nosso potencial de crescimento. Uma única. E não se afigura que nos próximos 3 seja diferente. Triste país, este. pic.twitter.com/DqnsXMl0vm

— MAL (@mlopes) February 11, 2020

Tenebroso, até a Roménia... estão a ouvir os ministros a cantar a canção "crescemos mais do que a média europeia"?

De ontem:

• Porque é que Portugal não cresce e não converge com a UE?
• Esqueçam o título e mergulhem na explicação do número, "Ano 2019 bate recorde de criação de novas empresas em Portugal"

A propósito de:

"Quanto às empresas que iniciaram processos de insolvência, recuaram 6,6% (-157 empresas) face a 2018, numa descida “transversal a quase todos os setores e distritos” e que se mantém desde 2013. “No entanto — revela o barómetro – esta tendência de descida abrandou recentemente, especialmente desde o segundo trimestre de 2019, devido ao setor das indústrias que registou um aumento de 16% nas novas insolvências, sobretudo nas empresas têxteis e metalúrgicas”."

Ontem de manhã, numa empresa de calçado, comentou-se o encerramento de 5 empresas de calçado. À noite no telejornal da RTP1 uma peça de reportagem sobre uma sexta empresa de calçado a fechar.

Entretanto, mandaram-me isto:

Alguma medida no orçamento de estado para 2020 sobre contrariar esta tendência?

Quando toda a energia é dedicada a redistribuir um bolo cada vez menor, para uma população cada vez mais dependente do estado ...

Recordar "É triste..." de Julho de 2018 e "A caminho da Sildávia do Ocidente" de Junho de 2008.

Planear a execução de uma estratégia

Um artigo interessante que toca em várias ideias que pratico no meu trabalho com as organizações e que há muitos anos descrevo aqui no blogue.

"Step one is to recognize your dependencies, i.e. your key stakeholders. [Moi ici: Desenhar o ecossistema de partes interessadas, um clássico deste blogue] You may think that this will be easy. And in a small business, like a convenience store, it initially is: customers, employees, suppliers, and owners. But then you become aware that some of the employees are also owners, and the complexity grows.
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The trick is to identify stakeholder roles. The same group of stakeholders can occupy more than one role.
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An essential second step, and one that I’ve been guilty of not stressing enough with clients, comes with the word “target.” It’s vitally important to identify your “target customer” before moving forward. [Moi ici: Outro clássico deste blogue, a identificação dos clientes-alvo]
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Isolating the target customer has massive implications, including in other stakeholder groups. ... Your strategic plan can’t be all things to all customers. So, take your time here to clearly define your target customer.
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The third step requires you to work out what your organization wants from each key stakeholder group for your organization to prosper.[Moi ici: Quando pensamos no que é que a nossa organização quer de uma parte interessada isso ajuda-nos a perceber se um segmento em particular faz sentido para o posicionamento da nossa organização]
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The fourth step is to identify what these stakeholder groups want from you. These are the key decision-making criteria that stakeholders use when interacting with your business. For example, these might include the factors influencing the decision to purchase from you (customers), work for you (employees), supply to you (suppliers) or invest in you (shareholders). [Moi ici: Outro clássico deste blogue e a base para a elaboração dos mapas da estratégia] 

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Strategy design, your fifth step, involves deciding what your organization’s positions will be on the identified strategic factors for each key stakeholder group. [Moi ici: Desenhar os mapas da estratégia] This is shaped by the objectives you’ve set for your organization and the knowledge you’ve gleaned about your stakeholders’ current and future needs on strategic factors.

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The sixth step is continuous improvement. Recognize that no matter what you decide, there is no certainty in the result once you embark on implementation via an action plan and scorecard.
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 Be prepared to adjust. View your strategic as being locked in an intimate tango with your key stakeholders. This dynamic perspective encourages openness, innovation and a preparedness to change."

Trechos retirados de "6 Steps to Make Your Strategic Plan Really Strategic"

Que rearranjos vão emergir? (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

A revista The Economist de 8 de Fevereiro último, no artigo "A long game" publicou o seguinte gráfico:

Uma evolução interessante, quer para os EUA, quer para a China.

Que impacte terá este choque do coronavírus nestas cadeias de fornecimento?

Duas notas:

• Coronavirus exposes downside of global dependence on China
• Coronavirus live updates: UK declares 'serious and imminent threat' to public health – latest news (só Graça Freitas continua a dançar e a saltar de nenúfar em nenúfar)

A lição do canadiano

Acompanho os jornais espanhóis há cerca de semana e meia (El País, ABC e El Mundo). Impressionante, todos dias um ou mais artigos sobre a situação de crise que varre a agricultura espanhola.

Aumento do salário mínimo para 950 euros, taxas alfandegárias nos Estados Unidos e abaixamento dos preços pagos pela distribuição grande estão entre os principais motivos avançados.

Ontem, no ABC encontrei "El campo mira a los Países Bajos para solucionar su crisis" e fiquei a pensar num filme que tinha visto ao princípio da tarde sobre a crise de 2008. A certa altura perguntam a um cientista nuclear porque estava a trabalhar para uma empresa financeira. Ele responde que é tudo uma questão de números. Eis alguns trechos:

"En España hay más de 3.500 cooperativas (asociaciones de agricultores que producen conjuntamente y luego se reparten el beneficio), de las cuales casi un millar son de aceite, según datos del Observatorio Socioeconómico del Cooperativismo Agroalimentario.
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Frente a esta dispersión, hay casos como el de Holanda, un país que, para la mayoría de las fuentes consultadas, es un ejemplo de organización en el campo. Hay pocas cooperativas pero grandes. Tiene cuatro que facturan lo mismo que las 3.500 españolas. Destacan Arla y Friesland Campina, por ejemplo, que son de las que más facturan en Europa.
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Si en España hay 3.500 cooperativas, en Dinamarca hay 28. La facturación media de una cooperativa en nuestro país es de siete millones de euros mientras que en estos países está entre 300 y 400 millones.
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«Una estrategia de integración de la actividad agraria permite reducir costes y mejorar la rentabilidad de los agricultores en dos direcciones: actuando sobre los costes de producción a través de compras conjuntas de carburantes, fitosanitarios, abonos, maquinarias, etc. y, de otro lado, participando de los procesos de transformación y comercialización de los productos», señala Aurelio del Pino, presidente de Aces, la asociación de cadenas españolas de supermercados."

Acham mesmo que o sucesso das cooperativas holandesas se deve só à dimensão? Acham que os produtos são os mesmos? Come on!

Quando se vende um produto básico, por mais produtivo que se seja, o que vende é o preço mais baixo.

O primeiro artigo que li foi no passado dia 3 no El País, "Crisis agraria":

"Las causas de fondo están en un mercado desequilibrado que opera siempre en contra de la renta de los agricultores sin que favorezca en demasía los intereses de los consumidores. Las grandes cadenas de distribución ejercen un dominio de mercado que les permite comprar a la baja a las pequeñas y medianas empresas dedicadas a la producción agraria. Este sistema ha acabado por deprimir las rentas y contribuir, junto a políticas de ayudas públicas mal diseñadas, a la persistencia en el campo de un minifundio empresarial, obligado en ocasiones a mantenerse vendiendo a pérdidas.
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La crisis de la agricultura en España solo tiene una respuesta: aumentar la rentabilidad de las explotaciones agrarias y equilibrar las condiciones de mercado.
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las explotaciones agrarias españolas tienen que aumentar de tamaño para ganar en competitividad. El campo español se merece estudios de rentabilidad, favorecer la creación de más cooperativas, oportunidades de venta directa a los consumidores, planes para elevar el valor añadido de la producción y mejores condiciones de empleo para asentar la población."

Sempre que penso em subir na escala de valor na agricultura recordo um exemplo, "Agricultura com futuro" e este trecho:

""Instead of growing crops and then finding a buyer, Mr. Menzies said the farm had to start looking for customers first. The typical farm model is “backward to everything I ever did in the engineering and technology side,” he said in an interview. “We looked for a need and we filled it. And where we found that need was from the world.”"

Precisam de crescer e emparcelar terrenos? Quase de certeza.
A produzir o que já existe em excesso? Não me parece.

A tentar subverter a relação com a distribuição grande?

Esta imagem:

Retirada do ABC de ontem em "El campo español afronta la tormenta perfecta". Como não re

Entretanto, no Público de ontem podia ler-se:

"A produção de azeitona para azeite na campanha de 2019 deverá ultrapassar “as 900 mil toneladas”, “posicionando esta campanha como uma das mais produtivas dos últimos 80 anos”.

Se colocarem muitos entraves à distribuição grande ela deixa de comprar em Espanha e passa a comprar mais em Portugal.

Para gente apressada

" there is often a fine line between success and failure. Just think about the following:

• There were over 17,000 “YouTubes” before YouTube.
• There were 18 web search services before Google—some quite similar to Google.
• Net2Phone launched the year before Skype.
• Friendster (and many others) came before Facebook."

Trecho retirado de "Interconnecting Products And Ecosystems"

2019 vs 2018 - exportações

Mobiliário continuou a crescer e mais do que em 2018.
Máquinas retomaram o cresciomento, mas ainda sem recuperar do golpe de 2018.
Vestuário, plástico e calçado  caíram em 2019. O calçado tinha caído em 2018 e duplicou as quedas em 2019.
Aeronaves cresceram muito e mais do que recuperaram o perdido em 2018.
Óptica continua a crescer muito robustamente, depois de um 2018 conde já tinha crescido quase 30%.
Agricultura a crescer bem, o normal dods últimos anos.
Combustíveis e ferro fundido tiveram um ano negativo.
Automóveis, desaceleração do crescimento para metade do verificado em 2018.

Interessante no Público de ontem o artigo "Têxtil: desvio espanhol e anemia alemã interrompem década de crescimento":

"As vendas da indústria têxtil e vestuário (ITV) a Espanha caíram 73 milhões de euros em 2019.
...
É a primeira vez, desde 2009, que as vendas ao exterior da ITV num ano não ultrapassam a facturação do ano precedente. Foram nove anos sempre a crescer, uma tendência agora interrompida porque o principal cliente de Portugal, a Espanha, e o terceiro maior comprador, a Alemanha, registaram quebras de 4,3% e 3%, respectivamente.
.
No primeiro caso, a razão parece ser a transferência de encomendas de Portugal para Marrocos e Turquia por parte de grandes clientes da confecção portuguesa, como a Inditex – o grupo espanhol dono de marcas como Zara, Pull & Bear, Bershka e Lefties, entre outras. Porquê? Segundo a Associação Têxtil e Vestuário de Portugal, “alguns players importantes alteraram a lógica de fornecimento” nos segmentos de “moda e fast fashion” porque “do ponto de vista dos preços, Portugal tem perdido alguma competitividade”. [Moi ici: Recordar esta reflexão recente sobre rapidez e preço. É o eterno sobe e desce] 

Nesse particular, Marrocos e Turquia conquistaram encomendas que antes eram satisfeitas em Portugal, porque em termos de proximidade acabam por ser colocados no mesmo patamar que a confecção portuguesa, que foi o sector que mais comércio perdeu e aquele que, como diz a ATP, “mais sente o peso” dos custos salariais.
.
Já no caso da Alemanha, para onde se venderam menos 14 milhões de euros, a explicação fundamental será o clima de estagnação que pautou a economia alemã e que terá influenciado o comportamento dos consumidores naquele país, refere a mesma responsável."

Sempre os mesmos...

Os franceses são sempre os mesmos...

O futuro construído a partir de abordagens top-down. A tríade é que sabe... descendentes de Platão.

Imagem retirada de "Industrie: La France veu privilégier dix secteurs d'avenir" publicado no Le Figaro de ontem.

Para reflexão

Aprovado o orçamento de estado, onde só se falou em redistribuir.

Entretanto:

• "Insolvências de empresas aumentam 35% e constituições caem 23% em janeiro"
• "Desemprego fecha 2019 a subir e lança o alerta para este ano"

Diz-me o amigo Nuno que isto:

• "El paro subió en 90.248 personas en enero, el mayor aumento desde 2014"

Pode ajudar Portugal, cada vez mais empresas espanholas estão a contratar serviços em Portugal ou a pensar em deslocalizar-se para cá. Veremos...

BTW, o salário mínimo espanhol deu um salto no ano passado e outro agora, este ano subiu de uma vez 200 ou 250 euros. A tal campanha para aumentar a produtividade.

"perder o terrível complexo de salvar empresas que não têm salvação"

"se Portugal precisa de novas empresas, também precisa de fechar as que não são produtivas. E são muitas…
.
Pegando nas críticas à baixa produtividade, e às responsabilidades que o ministro atribuiu aos bancos nesse domínio, Siza Vieira devia ter lembrado que Portugal tem de perder o terrível complexo de salvar empresas que não têm salvação. Nomeadamente aquelas que por cada dificuldade que enfrentam, pedem a ajuda do Estado. Seja pela concessão de subsídios, seja pelas facilidades no pagamento de impostos e/ou de contribuições para a Segurança Social, seja pela pressão para manter postos de trabalho que não fazem sentido (a propósito, sabe quantos postos de trabalho desnecessários a Altice mantém?).
...
os recursos que os governos (de direita e de esquerda) dedicam a salvar empresas inviáveis são recursos que fazem falta para deixar florescer as empresas novas, com modelos de negócio inovadores."

Como não recordar o nosso:

• Deixem morrer as empresas (Janeiro de 2020, Dezembro de 2018)
• Gabiche? (Dezembro de 2018)
• No país dos zombies, porque não se morre... (Abril de 2018)

Trechos retirados de "Precisamos de novas empresas? Sim, mas..."

Evolução das relações comerciais

Este gráfico ilustra a evolução das relações comerciais norte-americanas com alguns países nos últimos 30 anos:

O declínio da relação com o Japão.
A ascensão e queda(?) da relação com a China.
O lento declínio da relação com o Canadá.
A estagnação da relação com o México na primeira década do século XXI e a retoma da ascensão na segunda década.
A estagnação da relação com a Alemanha.

"The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in 2019 for the first time in six years as disputes with China and other countries reduced the U.S.’s exports and imports while reshaping relationships with economic partners.
...
Meantime, China lost its rank as the top U.S. trade partner, falling to third place behind Mexico and Canada. And the U.S.’s total trade in goods rose faster with Vietnam [Moi ici: A doença anglo-saxónica continua em grande] than with any of its largest trading partners, while trade with China fell most rapidly."

Gráfico e trechos retirados de "Trade Deficit Narrows For First Time Since ’13" publicado ontem no The Wall Street Journal.

"you can’t be exceptional in the marketplace unless ..."

“too many companies focus too narrowly on the details of price, performance, and features when they explain their offerings to customers.
...
I appreciate that leaders who aspire to do big things can’t lose sight of the small things that make such a huge impression inside and outside the organization.
...
Whether you’re building a lovemark or just spreading some love, you can’t be exceptional in the marketplace unless you create something exceptional in the workplace. Your brand is the outward expression of your culture, your culture is the platform that sustains your brand.”

Excerto de: William C. Taylor. “Simply Brilliant: How Great Organizations Do Ordinary Things in Extraordinary Ways”. Apple Books.

Que rearranjos vão emergir? (parte II)

Parte I.

"Hyundai said it had to shut down all its car factories in South Korea after running out of components from China as disruptions caused by the coronavirus outbreak rippled through the global manufacturing supplychains.
.
The world’s fifth-biggest carmaker by sales said it was searching for new sources of engine wire-harness after problems in the supplies of the core electric componentry from China, as executives at several carmakers and auto suppliers warned plants in Europe and the US are only weeks away from being forced to close.
...
Pressure is building on supply companies to maintain output and protect staff, with parts makers Continental and Thyssenkrupp both holding crisis meetings earlier this week.
.
“We are working closely with our suppliers and customers to minimise any disruptions,” said Continental, which runs 50 sites in China, and makes parts for most main European carmakers."

Entretanto, em linha com o que me contaram ontem ao almoço - "Coronavirus disrupts display panel production in China, spurring supply shortfalls and rising prices"

A pergunta mantem-se no ar. Que rearranjos irão emergir como consequência do crescente proteccionismo, aumento de salários na Ásia, exigências de Mongo e da rapidez/flexibilidade, e desta crise?

Trechos retirados de "Carmakers struggle with supply chain disruption" publicado no FT de ontem.

"dirty secrets are about what’s happening in here"

“How do we get better at anticipating embryonic issues and opportunities before they emerge?’
If emerging trends are always preceded by a tail of weaker signals, then disruptive change is due not so much to the absence of signals, as it is to do with organisations having either (i) poor detection (failure to look in the right spots) or (ii) poor perception (failure to attach relevance to the signals).
Because embryonic issues appear as weak signals lacking statistical significance, the usual supporting mechanism of data is not available. Understanding processes for change is much more important.
...
When looking for sources of future change, the natural inclination is to look externally, to what is happening out there. However, dirty secrets are about what’s happening in here, uncovering the organisation’s enemies within that have the capacity to cause self-implosion. In my experience, most organisations and industries have their share of dirty secrets. And almost without exception, managers are very poor at addressing these issues ahead of a crisis.
While we remain fascinated by the potential for external discontinuities, recent events have demonstrated the disruptive capacity of internal dirty secrets when they are exposed.
...
To confront these internal issues, managers, industry leaders and governments need to ask themselves:
Which practices are the public unaware of, but if they were, it would alter their perception of who we are and what we do?
...
What cultural hypocrisies underpin our operations or performance?
...
What are the frustrations customers have with our products or services?
What roadblocks do our processes or regulations put in the way of the customer’s experience?
What unnecessary margins can others target?
Do we give our customers a reason to stay?"

Leio estes trechos e faço logo a ponte para os factores internos do contexto das organizações na ISO 9001:2015.
Trechos retirados de “Rethinking Strategy” de Steve Tighe.

‘I can’t be real with this person.’

"“Everyone is so intent on expressing their own opinion, or they’re so distracted by technology or by their own thoughts, that it’s making us isolated, misinformed and intolerant. I wanted to raise awareness of the value and great joy of listening.”
...
everyone had a great story to tell if you could be bothered to talk to them properly and listen to what they had to say.
...
“Anyone who has shared something personal and received a thoughtless or uncomprehending response knows how it makes your soul want to crawl back into its hiding place,” she writes. “Whether someone is confessing a misdeed, proposing an idea, sharing a dream, revealing an anxiety or recalling a significant event – that person is giving up a piece of him or herself. And if you don’t handle it with care, the person will start to edit future conversations with you, knowing: ‘I can’t be real with this person.’”"

Trechos retirados de "How to be a good listener: my mission to learn the most important skill of all"

Fugir da comparação pelo preço

Elementos relevantes para apoiar uma reflexão por parte de quem trabalham com OEMs, mesmo que não do sector automóvel. Fugir da comparação pelo preço:

"many automotive suppliers are under the impression that OEMs only choose to buy from them if they offer the best price. Our experience tells us this is only half true, at best. While price is a key criterion for OEMs when selecting suppliers, they also take into account many other criteria, such as plant location and delivery track record. Neglecting these is a surefire way to harm your chances of establishing a business relationship with automotive manufacturers. Suppliers need to understand the entire selection process in order to be truly successful with a targeted OEM. Answering these three key questions will ensure you take the right approach:

• How are OEMs making purchasing decisions?

• Who makes the decisions?

• Which criteria do OEMs consider?

...
Provide your direct contacts with convincing argumentation about your product’s superior quality so they speak up for you in internal meetings. Remember: If the buying team doesn’t have proof that your products are a) more reliable, b) more effective, or c) more efficient than your competitors’, they have no option but to choose solely based on your price."

Trechos retirados de "Avoiding Price Pressure: 3 Tips to Negotiate Successfully With OEM Buying Centers"

"explore the future by doing"

“Co-creating: Crystallizing and Prototyping the New.
.
The aim of co-creating is to build landing strips for the future through prototypes that allow us to explore the future by doing.
.
The prototypes evolve based on the feedback they generate. The “observe, observe, observe” of the co-sensing phase becomes “iterate, iterate, iterate.” This movement is inspired by design thinking and blended with presencing principles to make it relevant to profound shifts in social fields.
...
Outcomes of Co-creating
2. A set of connections with stakeholders and partners that are relevant for taking the prototype to pilot and scale
3. Enhanced leadership and innovation capacities for dealing with disruptive innovation
4. A team spirit that could help change the leadership culture in the company
5. Creative confidence among the team members to take on big and complex projects"
A prototype is a microcosm of the future that you want to create. Prototyping means to present your idea (or work in progress) before it is fully developed. The purpose of prototyping is to generate feedback from all stakeholders about how it looks, how it feels, how it matches (or does not match) people’s needs and aspirations, and then to refine the assumptions about the guiding project. The focus is on exploring the future by doing rather than by analyzing. As the folks at IDEO have put it, the rationale for prototyping is “to fail often to succeed sooner” or to “fail early to learn quickly.”
A prototype is not a plan. It is something you do that generates feedback. But a prototype is also not a pilot. A pilot has to be a success; by contrast, a prototype may fail, but it focuses on maximizing learning.”

1. A set of refined prototypes—living microcosms of the future—that have generated meaningful feedback regarding the guiding questions and objectives of the lab

Trechos retirados de "The Essentials of Theory U: Core Principles and Applications" de Otto Scharmer.

Lidar com as restrições (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

"A recent academic study reported that even in high-performing companies with clearly articulated strategies, only 29% of employees knew what their company’s strategy was. This is no isolated finding – survey after survey reports that employees seem to be in the dark when it comes to their organisation’s strategy, despite claims by senior management that their vision is clear, clearly communicated and well understood.
...
Strategy is all about making difficult choices—what the organisation will do and more importantly, what it will not do.
...
It is amazing how many organisations fall into the trap of not making the required choices. One reason for this is the fact that these are not easy choices to make – ex ante, there are many possible answers to each one of the three questions. Should we target customer X or customer Y? Should we undertake distribution A or B? Should we offer service P or Q? Nobody knows for sure and even though analysis could eliminate some uncertainty, it will never eliminate all of it.
.
As a result, debates, disagreements and politicking will precede these decisions. Yet, at the end of the day, a firm cannot be everything to everybody – it has to allocate its limited resources among the various options. Hence, clear and explicit decisions need to be made. These choices may turn out to be wrong but that is not an excuse for not making the choices.
.
Another reason for the failure to make the necessary choices is the fact that saying ‘no’ to people is difficult and can often create bad feelings in the organisation."

Trechos retirados de "Three reasons why your strategy could fail"

Para reflexão

"À titre de contre-exemple, il cite la Nouvelle-Zélande, un pays qu'il connaît autant qu'il affectionne. «Là-bas, ils sont parvenus à concilier, l'image, la marque et le développement durable tout en disposant de cahiers des charges très ouverts, reprend-il. En outre, ils n'oublient jamais qu'ils font du business et ne s'endorment pas. » Et d'ajouter «Aujourd'hui, l'organisation des filières agricoles en France ne nous permet pas d'avoir une vision globale. Les règlements sont de plus en plus restrictifs, alors que les enjeux mondiaux nous imposent de produire plus. Et pour produire plus, il s'agit de produire autrement. Il faut se remettre en question. J'ai parfois le sentiment qu'ici, le changement effraie. On a peur de tout en France. Le charme de notre viticulture se résume à deux phrases "On n'a jamais fait cela" et "On n'a jamais fait comme ça". Enfin, trop de gens pensent que nous pouvons régler les problèmes de qualité avec des lois, des règlements et de la lourdeur administrative. Nous voulons trop nous protéger et, à la fin, nous nous fragilisons. Nous avons besoin d'un grand débat viticole en France.» 

Trecho retirado de "Coup de colère à Chablis"

Que rearranjos vão emergir?

A economia actual é isto:

Um mecânico italiano que esteve há dias na China a reparar máquinas e agora estava a reparar máquinas em várias empresas de Felgueiras.

Há dias no Twitter ironizei:

ainda bem que o coronavirus não se transmite através dos bens fabricados na China e em exposição brevemente nas prateleiras de Primavera-Verão

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) January 28, 2020

Agora em "When China Coughs, Supply Chains Fall Ill" publicado no Wall Street Journal de ontem:

"As the spread of the new coronavirus in China causes more factory shutdowns, the effect on global industrial supply chains could linger for years. China now makes up more than twice the share of global merchandise exports it did in 2003, when the SARS virus hit. Guangdong province alone exported more in 2018 than China did as a whole 17 years ago.
.
Manufacturers already gripe about the effect of the Lunar New Year holiday, which falls in January or February, on their business as Chinese factories shutter. But the public-health response to the virus this year effectively means extending the holiday. China’s industrial output could be running at a similarly low level for a much longer period.
...
Global supply chains are considerably more complex than they were in 2003, shortly after China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. Even items with a marginal quantity of Chinese content will be affected as production is halted.
...
The current lockdown is of a scale beyond either SARS, floods in Thailand or the earthquakes in Japan. China’s industrial heft leaves global manufacturers in a quandary with no obvious parallel, even with shutdowns only just beginning. The impact may be felt for years to come."

Já no NYT li "Coronavirus Outbreak Tests World’s Dependence on China":

"Apple is rerouting supply chains. Ikea is closing its stores and paying staff members to stay home. Starbucks is warning of a financial blow. Ford and Toyota will idle some of their vast Chinese assembly plants for an extra week.
...
The mysterious coronavirus that has killed more than a hundred people and sickened thousands has virtually shut down one of the world’s most important growth engines. Desperate to slow the fast-moving virus, the Chinese authorities have extended the country’s national holiday to Feb. 3, and crippled land, rail and air transport. Entire cities have shut down.
...
Automakers like General Motors and Nissan plan to close their factories until the week of Feb. 3 to comply with the longer mandated holiday, while Toyota and Ford said this week that they would close some of their factories a week longer than that because of virus-related disruptions. Companies like G.M., Honeywell, Facebook and Bloomberg restricted travel for employees in China and established their own self-quarantine measures.
...
Wuhan in particular appeals to major companies because it is a major national transport hub. The auto industry, including General Motors, Honda, Nissan and many others, have set up shop there, and many of their suppliers have followed. It is the home to more than one third of all French investment in China.
...
In Thailand, Chinese sightseers spend nearly $18 billion annually, totaling about a quarter of tourist spending.
.
“Chinese tourists are the No. 1 tourists to Thailand,” said Yuthasak Supasorn, the governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand."

Que impacte é que isto pode ter nas cadeias de fornecimento mundiais? Que rearranjos vão emergir?

Lidar com as restrições (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

A propósito de restrições, às vezes, o problema é a falta de restrições, a falta de foco. Eis um bom exemplo em "The Dolittle effect":

"Why is the new Dolittle movie so bad? Savaged by critics and viewers, it had:

• One of the most bankable movie stars in the world

• A story that had previously been the basis of two hit movies

• The best CGI houses in the world

• Unlimited time and money

I think the best way to understand why it failed is to look at the reasons above. Ironically, it’s these assets and lack of constraints that created the circumstances that allowed the movie to become a turkey."

E o que é a incapacidade de seleccionar um grupo de clientes-alvo senão uma incapacidade de assumir restrições?

Lidar com as restrições (parte II)

Na Parte I escrevemos:

"Quantas vezes só depois de encostadas à parede, só depois de terem perdido tudo, é que as empresas tentam o que parece absurdo, ou o que vai contra a formatação do mainstream e... resulta"

Primeiro este postal de 2014 "Curiosidade do dia" sobre a pêra-rocha em que o embargo russo era vista pelo sector como  um oportunidade. Depois, em 2015 este outro postal "Curiosidade do dia" dava conta da retoma das exportações de pêra-rocha.

Neste postal recente, "Dez anos de exportações - uma perspectiva" vemos que as exportações de fruta cresceram mais de 263%.

Entretanto, ontem li "Exportações de pera rocha sobem para os 90 milhões de euros em 2019":

"As exportações de pera rocha renderam entre janeiro e novembro de 2019 mais 16% em relação a 2018.
...
Nos últimos três anos, o setor da produção da pera rocha investiu 430 mil euros num projeto de promoção da fruta na Alemanha, Brasil, Espanha, França, Reino Unidos, Peru e China.
.
Nesse âmbito, a ANP participou em nove feiras internacionais em Espanha, Alemanha, China e Peru, trouxe 18 jornalistas, chefs e bloggers estrangeiros a visitar a região do Oeste, onde a fruta é produzida, deu a provar a pera em 1.730 voos da companhia aérea TAP com destino a Alemanha, França, Reino Unido e Espanha e efetuou uma campanha publicitária na capital francesa, com 700 mupis colocados de forma estratégica."

Monitoring risks - Frequency

Last Thursday I was asked how often to update the risk assessment and assessment in a quality management system according to ISO 9001: 2015. I gave an answer around this:

"At least annually, but that is not very effective, the more the risk based approach is embedded in the organization’s management system, the more frequently it should be performed. Every day, I see in newspapers external events that can generate risks and opportunities. For example, will this coronavirus crisis have an impact in your own organization? I try to implement the risk-based thinking in all management meetings, at several levels."

In the meantime, I had the opportunity to read an interesting article on risk and supply chains,"Supply chain risk management is back", and I saw the answer to the question from another perspective:

"A systematic classification of risks, and development of a related response strategy, is essential to improve supply-chain resilience strategically—while keeping required investment to a minimum. A simple framework can help by classifying risks on two axes: the vertical estimates to what extent a risk can be anticipated, while the horizontal quantifies the risk’s expected impact.

• “Manageable surprises” are difficult to anticipate but manageable in terms of impact.

• “Black swans” are hard to anticipate and severe in terms of impact.

• “Brewing storms” can be anticipated and will have a high impact once they materialize.

• “Business challenges” are typically low-impact risks that can be both anticipated and managed quite easily."

Each quadrant deserves a different treatment:

"For each of the quadrants, a specific set of response strategies can be developed. A reactive risk-management approach should be taken for risks that are difficult to predict, and a more proactive approach for those with higher predictability.

• Low-impact risks that are hard to anticipate, such as the bankruptcy of an individual supplier or a localized conflict in a country without major operations, can be accepted or avoided to a certain extent by diversifying operations. Systematically implementing a dual-sourcing strategy, through nominating new suppliers or negotiating a second source of supply from the same supplier, help mitigate this risk category.

• High-impact risks that are hard to anticipate, including natural disasters, terrorist attacks, or cyberattacks, can be managed by building strong crisis-management capabilities and resilience throughout the system. A supply-chain risk-management team can introduce a systemic risk-monitoring process which can be enhanced by regular scenario-planning exercises. Through keeping healthy reserves for parts with long recovery times, companies can prevent some supply-chain disruptions. Another way to mitigate risks which are difficult to anticipate is transferring risk to other parties: taking out insurance and introducing risk-related contract language are possible answers.

• Low-impact risks that are relatively easy to anticipate, such as labor disputes, regulatory changes, or changes in customer preferences (for minimal plastic usage or increased product sustainability, for example) can be managed proactively by increasing the robustness of the supply-chain system. The most important single measure, though, is solid training of the workforce to handle everyday risks. Encouraging employees to voice concerns about possible defects and disruptions helps create a general risk awareness as a first step to managing disruptions. IT systems and tools can then help to continuously monitor disruptive trends and events.

• High-impact risks that are relatively easy to anticipate, including Brexit, US–China trade regulations, or decarbonization targets, need the most attention. A systematic review of the supply-chain setup may be advisable. Possible response strategies include redefining the sourcing strategy by, say, raising the share of local suppliers, or revisiting the manufacturing footprint by moving some manufacturing operations out of certain areas. Establishing CKD operations in countries with high import taxes on finished products can be another option. The review of the inventory build-up strategy helps optimize service levels by increasing safety-stock levels for critical components which cannot be sourced from alternative locations. In some cases, preparing for changes in demand can be an appropriate answer."

An idea to improve risk management efficiency is to give different attention depending on the greater or lesser capacity for anticipation and the greater or lesser impact of the risk.

Now, I'm remembering an example from Tom Peters in the book "Re-Imagine" about Dell answer to problems in the supply chain... managing risks wasn't managing risks, it was doing normal business.