Rapidez, flexibilidade, lidar com a incerteza

What comes after Putin (and when) is unpredictable but the West should prepare for a long-term confrontation. The struggle will continue. Luckily Europeans are waking up to the reality that we need force to defend our values and norms. 6/

— Kristi Raik (@KristiRaik) April 22, 2022

Mal li aquele trecho "West should prepare for a long-term confrontation" voltei mentalmente aos tempos da Guerra Fria. Depois, pensei nas implicações para o comércio internacional. Recordo alguns postais recentes:

• Pergunta sincera, pergunta honesta
• O risco de voltar a trabalhar com a China (parte IV) 

As regras do jogo económico estão a ser revistas e algo diferente vai emergir da confusão. Entretanto, julgo que esta previsão que se segue não andará longe do que veremos:

"In a digitally transformed economy, CP enterprises are normally better off spending money to save time than to spend time to save money. The shorter the offering’s life cycle, the more this is the case. To do this, they need to get better at the kind of “moderate-risk-low-data” decision-making that is at the core of the Agile operating model, and not just at the fuzzy front end of innovation, but all the way along the line as they systematically scale the offer. This is possible because digitally enabled supply and delivery chains can detect market signals far faster than in prior eras, but only if a) they are deployed, and b) they are employed. A culture that has a low tolerance for risk or failure is a much greater liability today than in the past.

...

but as time displaces money as the scarcest ingredient in the economic equation, agile must come to the fore. To help the culture embrace this principle, enterprises need to make “time data” much more visible in their OKRs, dashboards, monthly reports, and quarterly reviews. Latency is the cholesterol that hardens our operational arteries, so taking time out of our processes as opposed to taking money out needs to be our first (although not our only) priority."

Quantos empresários vão conseguir mudar de mindset? Deixar de lado algoritmos familiares, mas desactualizados, e abraçar outros que têm de ser construídos durante o decorrer do jogo, não é tarefa para qualquer um.

Trechos retirados de "Next-Generation Best Practices for Consumer Product Companies" 

"decaedere"

acha que o pêésse defende o contrário? pense a sério... acha que isso o distingue do pêésse?

— Carlos P da Cruz 🇺🇦 (@ccz1) April 21, 2022

Recentemente, nesta apresentação, "Rouxinóis, fiambreiras e resultados!", a certa altura apresentei estas imagens (noutro contexto):

Por que é que Cavaco Silva recentemente criticou António Costa? Por falta de coragem para fazer reformas.

Costa é o político que nos propõe uma vida sem sacrifícios:

Quando lido com empresas apresento esta imagem para dar a entender o ponto acerca da estratégia. Estratégia é escolha, mas também é renúncia. Costa propõe-nos "Saúde e Riqueza", e quem é que não quer isso?

Contudo, não acredito que esse modelo seja sustentável. Assim, uma verdadeira estratégia implica uma escolha dolorosa:

• ter saúde, mas ser pobre, ou
• ser rico, mas ser doente

Jorge Moreira da Silva segue o caminho de Costa, esconde que é preciso fazer escolhas dolorosas, e refugia-se na "catequese". Acham mesmo que o PS não está de acordo com isto "Defendo um Estado que dignifique os cidadãos, promova a equidade social, liberte a iniciativa da sociedade civil e fomente o crescimento económico"? Se está de acordo com isto, porquê mudar?

De certeza que já escrevi sobre este tema no passado aqui no blogue. No entanto, agora não encontro um postal à mão melhor do que este.

Muitas vezes tomamos decisões e clarificamos e somos claros sobre o que decidimos, mas quase sempre esquecemos de enunciar, de tornar claro e transparente aquilo a que renunciamos, e quais são os pressupostos e implicações das nossas decisões.

Por exemplo, vejo muitas empresas entusiasmadas com a aplicação das metodologias lean desenvolvidas na Toyota, mas poucas sabem que o Toyota Production System parte do pressuposto que o planeamento da produção está congelado 8 semanas para a frente? 

Porter escreveu várias vezes: “the essence of strategy is choosing what not to do”.

Entretanto, ontem de manhã, durante a caminhada à chuva, encontrei este trecho:

"We obtain a better understanding of the meaning of the verb to decide by considering its Latin origin, decaedere, which means “to cut off” (derived from de [off] and caedere [to cut]). What is cut off are alternative options or courses of action. In other words, it means coming to a resolution or choice in the mind as a result of discernment, consideration, or settling an argument."

Fantástico, a origem da palavra decidir está no acto de cortar com uma(s) alternativa(s). Quantas decisões são tomadas sem perceber quais são as suas implicações? 

Quantas decisões são tomadas escondendo as suas implicações?

Saúde e riqueza em simultâneo rima com cativações, o que rima com, por exemplo:

Ou:

Eu acredito que lá no fundo, no fundo, a maioria das pessoas não acredita na promessa da riqueza e saúde em simultâneo, mas pensa: enquanto o pau vai e vem folgam as costas e depois alguém mais tarde há-de tratar da confusão acumulada. Um Passos qualquer que há-de fazer o papel de bode expiatório e nele será corporizada a culpa pela austeridade violenta. Em 2018 aqui no blogue escrevi:

"Depois da expulsão do paraíso, porque descobrimos que éramos mortais, porque descobrimos que havia uma coisa chamada futuro tivemos de começar a trabalhar. Trabalhar gera frutos que podem ser consumidos de imediato, ou podemos atrasar a gratificação e investir alguns desses frutos em busca de um futuro melhor. Ora uns investem muito, outros investem menos, outros não investem nada. Assim, quando o futuro chega, uns têm mais retorno, outros menos e outros nenhum. Nessa altura cresce a inveja e Caim mata Abel.

Acho sintomático que @s polític@s que se alimentam da inveja andem tão aliad@s às políticas@s que se alimentam da desvalorização do atraso na gratificação."

Trecho retirado de "The Root Cause: Rethink Your Approach to Solving Stubborn Enterprise-Wide Problems" de Hans Norden.

Subir na escala de valor é fundamental

Ao longo dos anos que sigo o martírio do sector do leite em Portugal. Entre as dezenas de postais sobre o leite saliento, a título de exemplo:

• Em Março passado escrevi sobre a importância de subir na escala de valor - Subir na escala de valor, um exemplo.
• Em Fevereiro de 2020 escrevi sobre o negócio do leite como um negócio de commodities - Uma lição para as PME portuguesas.
• Em Agosto de 2018 escrevi sobre o karma - Karma is a bitch!!! Ou os jogadores de bilhar amador no poder!.
• Em Setembro de 2015 escrevi sobre os leites vegetais - E fechá-los numa sala durante 12 horas?

Agora leiam este artigo sobre a Valio, uma empresa de um país com cerca de 5 milhões de habitantes, a Finlândia, "Finnish dairy company Valio is feeding the future":

"Today, Valio—with net sales of €1.8 billion (US$2 billion)—is a private company that is still owned by the 4,000 cooperative family farms that produce its milk. Led by CEO Annikka Hurme, Valio is Finland’s biggest food exporter, selling products in some 60 countries around the world.

...

Valio entered the plant-based sector in 2018, with its oat-milk brand Oddlygood. [Moi ici: Comparar com a reacção das empresas de laticinios em Portugal - E fechá-los numa sala durante 12 horas?]

...

S+B: What other trends are shaping your growth strategy? 

HURME: We’ve seen increased preference for products with less sugar and more protein. For example, we have developed lactose-free milk powders with various added ingredients that we can offer to chocolate companies. By using the powders, they can maintain the quality and taste of their chocolate, with less sugar. This is something very specific that we can do for our customers that sets us apart from competitors. Everyone can offer lactose-free; our advantage is that we can lower the sugar content. [Moi ici: Comparar com a mensagem de Subir na escala de valor, um exemplo.]"

Sildávia, exportações em alta e crescimento anémico

Ontem no Jornal de Negócios podia ler-se na capa:

Como não recuar de imediato a 2008 e à previsão mais fácil de todas as que foram feitas neste blogue: É triste ... (BTW, em Julho de 2018 Nuno Garoupa escrevia no Público "Quer isso dizer que, dentro de dez anos, com enorme probabilidade, apenas a Bulgária e a Roménia serão mais pobres que Portugal." Sorry, estamos em 2022 e a Roménia está à beira de nos ultrapassar.) Sim:

Interessante ... pensem bem naquela capa do JdN:

As exportações dos primeiros dois meses do ano 2022 superam as de 2021 em praticamente todos os sectores económicos. Por exemplo calçado 24%; mobiliário 11%; metalomecânica 9%; têxtil e vestuário 20%; plásticos 30%; borracha 15%; cerâmica 29%; farmacêuticos 13%; fertilizantes 137%, ... (OK, automóveis -4%)

Por exemplo, achei interessante encontrar em "Europe Wants Its Supply Chains Close to Home But It's Complicated" este relato:

"Maia & Borges, a toymaker based in northern Portugal, is on course for 12 million euros (almost $13 million) of revenue in 2022, up from 1.5 million euros in 2019, having won multiple orders from Europe, and the U.S when Asian supply chains were snarled up in the early months of the pandemic. Patricia Maia, chief executive officer, said the family firm will make 10 million toys this year and is building a third factory to cope with demand expected to hit 40 million by 2024. "From a business perspective, we've had a good two years,' she said."

Há menos de um mês escrevi Pergunta sincera, pergunta honesta sobre os dois cenários: com ou sem China. Onde discorro sobre a competitividade sem produtividade. Por fim, volto a Portugal não irá crescer se continuar a “exportar ‘mais do mesmo’”.

Lembrem-se, a culpa nunca é dos empresários no terreno. Esses dão o melhor que podem e sabem, alguns conseguem subir na escala de valor. Devemos sempre recordar o cão dos Baskerville: quem é que não está no terreno e porque não aparecem? 

Ainda esta semana foi-me roubada a atenção para esta notícia, por exemplo: "Simoldes investe 45 milhões em nova fábrica em Espanha". Não pela empresa, mas pelo sinal, mas pelo exemplo. Por que acontecem coisas deste tipo?

Lembram-se dos jogadores de bilhar amador contentes por terem roubado uma empresa aos lituanos? Em Ultrapassados pelo Leste

Como diria a Red Queen, in order to stay in a (competitive) place you have to run very hard, whereas to get anywhere you have to run even harder. Mas to get anywhere, como referem Taleb e Maliranta, é preciso sexo, Sexo, jardineiros, intervencionistas, Taleb e Cavaco Silva (parte III), não como estão a pensar, mas como mecanismo que permite o unlearn e o relearn.

"that starts the race to the bottom"

 

"the hard, cold facts show that competing in an existing category is a race to the bottom.

If everyone says they are "better," consumers get confused. They assume if everyone says they are "the best" at what they do, the only way to make a decision is to compare.

The first thing they compare is price. And that starts the race to the bottom. It's like watching two prizefighters stand in the middle of the ring and pound the shit out of each other."

Trecho retirado de "Niche Down: How To Become Legendary By Being Different" de Christopher Lochhead e Heather Clancy. 

"Great success"

A propósito da contínua subida da carga fiscal e da insaciável voracidade fiscal do estado normando estes recortes:

"Because a rising tide lifts all boats or, as I’ve heard many times in presentations, in a hurricane even turkeys will fly, no one questions an executive’s business governance [a government's] acumen when bottom-line [budget] results meet or exceed expectations. Any attempted criticism is countered with the clincher, “Who can argue with success?” Note that this implies equating success with profits [low deficit], not the system’s capability and capacity for becoming the obvious choice supplier to one’s target audience.[the increase in the emigration of young people and others speaks for itself] 

As we saw before, the difference in governing a business system  [a country] under good and bad economic conditions is the margin for error. Consequently, executive  [government] decision-makers are escorted into the twilight state by their dwindling profit margins [the rise in interest rates and the drop in economic activity, in the face of rigid spending].

Instead of investigating the root cause of one’s dwindling profit margins [fiscal voracity] , executive   [government] decision makers rely on their mental programming. Instead of addressing the cause, they jump on addressing the effect—dwindling profit margins [higher deficit]. When there is this kind of confusion about cause and effect, the root cause is thus often mistakenly perceived as a financial problem. Because increasing income (sales volume and profit margins) [tax withdrawal] is more difficult to achieve in an economic downturn, lowering cost  [the increase in tax loot] is the only remaining logical conclusion.”

Trecho retirado de "The Root Cause: Rethink Your Approach to Solving Stubborn Enterprise-Wide Problems" de Hans Norden.

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte VIII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V,  parte VI e parte VII.

Os utilizadores da ISO 9001 reconhecerão a cláusula 4.1 sobre a análise do contexto (com as questões internas e externas):

"In assessing the strategic situation, we recommend analyzing external competitive advantages and internal competencies in a similar way.

...

Strategy development usually starts not from scratch, but from point of departure that excludes certain strategy a options.

...

Where should strategy development begin in such a situation? With the market or the company's own competencies? It is often better to start with the question "What can we do?" or "What do we do better than our competitors?" [Moi ici: Talvez uma melhor pergunta seja "O que podemos fazer diferente dos outros?" Isto faz-me recordar e recuar a Outubro de 2015 e a este postal "Do concreto para o abstracto e não o contrário"] That's how we started in this case. Fig. 11.8 shows the matrix of internal competencies for the company's special market and the volume market, with competencies measured in relation to the strongest competitor.  

...

Not surprisingly, it transpired that the company performed extremely well in the special market. By contrast, its position was weak in the volume market, where business had previously only been done opportunistically. In all important competencies the competition was stronger. 

Manufacturing flexibility and financing were the only advantages, both of lesser importance.

The picture was similar with regard to the company's external market position. Fig. 11.9 shows how the customers perceived the company's performance attributes in relation to those of the strongest competitor. A position to the right of 100 signifies performance leadership, and to the left of 100 it means that a competitor is stronger.

In the special market, customers see the company as the clear performance leader. It has very pronounced competitive advantages in the elasticity of the propulsion units, product quality, and closeness to customer. The company fails to beat the competition in price and operating costs only. However, this is not a serious problem in view of the company's superior performance in several important attributes and the relative unimportance of operating costs.

As we have seen, both markets were very attractive to the company, which did not want and could not afford to abandon the special market despite the cuts in defense budgets. What strategic options did the company have?

1. Continue to serve the special market and defend its position there. This basically represents the continuation of the previously successful hidden champion strategy. The risk is considerable that the market remains small or even shrinks. Cost disadvantages could get worse as a result. In addition, some customers in the special market may in the future buy more standard products that were originally intended for the volume market.

2. Develop the competitive competencies required for success in the volume market. Most importantly, this means developing simpler, less sophisticated propulsion units and manufacturing them at cheaper locations. This option was discussed at length, but it ultimately proved to be too time-consuming and risky. The management was unsure whether these competencies could successfully be developed within an acceptable timeframe.

3. Acquire a company that is strong in the volume market but weak in the special market.

Option 3 was chosen. Three candidates were considered in depth, and the most suitable one was taken over in stages."

Trechos retirados de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon.

Raboni

 - Maria! 

Ela, voltando-se, disse-lhe: 

- Raboni.

"become that target audience’s “obvious choice” supplier"

Mais um desfile de temas habituais neste blogue: eficientismo, objectivos versus consequências, obliquidade, originação de valor, clientes-alvo, monopólios informais.

"There seems to be consensus that the purpose of a business is to make money. In other words, success is equated with money. Therefore, everything is given a price tag including people, humanity, health, safety, organizational culture, work climate, values, morality, ethics, pride of workmanship, and the environment.

Consequently, based on theories of operational efficiency, decisions are reduced to an analytic process of determining which solution is economic and which is uneconomic. The one that costs less wins.

...

No one denies the necessity for a commercial enterprise to pursue revenue and a healthy profit margin. The criticism against “making money” is that it should not be professed as the purpose of a business system.

Rather, earning a profit margin is not the purpose of a business but a “prerequisite” for operating a sustainable business. Please do not disregard this distinction between purpose and prerequisite as a matter of semantics, for it is nothing of the sort. Profits are the applause for a job well done, and receiving a standing ovation is the cry for an encore. It is a show of being in demand; it is the proof of a success!

...

The price people are willing to pay for a product or service is equal to the perceived use value they anticipate receiving from their purchase or investment. Because not everyone has the same perception of what constitutes use value, not everyone is a prospective buyer of your brand or your kind of product or service—hence the recognition of market segmentation and the identification of different target audiences.

Rather than creating use value similar to one’s competitors, different expressions of use value can be created by changing the business’s transformation process.

...

The profit margin is thus equal to the utility that a product or service delivers to its intended target audience. Therefore, the challenge of any business, with the exception of monopolies and oligopolies, is to add more utility to its value proposition targeting a specific audience than its immediate competitors. In other words, pursuing this strategy to become that target audience’s “obvious choice” supplier—and thus standing out as the only choice in the hearts and minds of your market segment."

Trecho retirado de "The Root Cause: Rethink Your Approach to Solving Stubborn Enterprise-Wide Problems" de Hans Norden

Que sentido teria a minha vida sem Ti

Desde o final da minha adolescência que resumo o ser cristão a duas estórias que Jesus nos contou. 

• A parábola do filho pródigo, que ilustra o perdão do Pai, que ilustra o como o Pai espera sempre por nós de braços abertos, sem perguntas, sem recriminações.
• A parábola dos talentos, que nos convida a darmos o melhor de nós, que nos pede para nos superarmos a nós próprios, ninguém recebe um desafio maior do que as suas capacidades. Assim, deixemos as lamentações e desculpas e façamos o melhor que soubermos e pudermos.

Quando eu era adolescente achava os monges da Idade Média uns verdadeiros tótós. Passarem a vida a ler a Bíblia… come on, lê-se uma vez e está lida. Quando se é adolescente consegue-se ser muito parvo. Há muito que aprendi que nunca é tarde para aprender, mas às vezes é demasiado cedo. Sempre que repetimos uma leitura, as palavras podem ser as mesmas, mas nós somos diferentes. Sim, "Perception is subjective".

Nos últimos anos tenho-me aproximado da pessoa de Simão Pedro. Simão Pedro sou eu, Simão Pedro somos todos nós. Capaz das afirmações mais Uau, para logo a seguir acobardar-se.

No Domingo passado, Domingo de Ramos, o Evangelho relatou a Paixão e Morte de Jesus. Sim, é a morte do Filho de Deus, como exclamou o centurião romano esmagado pelo que via acontecer perante a Cruz, mas a minha atenção foi para Simão Pedro… ao perceber que acabou de negar Jesus pela terceira vez, afastou-se para “chorar amargamente”. Eu desconfio, eu tenho medo de pensar que também teria medo, que também me acobardaria perante um teste a sério. E os testes a sério ocorrem na vida quotidiana, não em momentos extraordinários.

O mesmo Simão Pedro que quando Jesus lhe pergunta pela terceira vez: 

- Simão, filho de João, tu amas-Me?

Responde de uma forma que cada vez mais me comove, porque nele revejo-me nas minhas lacunas, nas minhas fraquezas, na minha … maldade:

- Senhor, Tu sabes tudo, bem sabes que Te amo.

E a minha mente acrescenta: Que sentido teria a minha vida sem Ti, em que labirinto estaria perdido sem a Tua orientação.

BTW, logo na cerimónia do lava-pés, sei que vou recordar as palavras de Simão Pedro, segundo o Evangelho de João.

"Perception is subjective"

"Perception is subjective. In other words, awareness of a common environment through physical sensations differs from person to person. Therefore, different people have different experiences of reality. Such differences become especially significant when new and unforeseen circumstances unfold before our eyes, such as when events disrupt a business’s normal operating conditions.

...

What we "see" is the result of a successful matchup of patterns in the reality an individual observes and his or her mental programming, which happens throughout our lives and is affected by our education, schooling, cultural habits, customs and traditions, prejudices, interpersonal relationships, work or industry experiences, exposure to different socioeconomic and geopolitical environments, media exposure, travel, and reading.

...

An individual’s perception of reality is thus a matter of creating mental images. We create mental images by matching the object of our observation, or our experience of a situation or condition, with our mental programming. Therefore, reality is judged according to the beliefs we were mentally programmed to accept as right or wrong, valid or invalid, or true or false. And we apply those beliefs to our interpretation of successful value-chain governance and to interpret events as they unfold before our eyes."

Trecho retirado de "The Root Cause: Rethink Your Approach to Solving Stubborn Enterprise-Wide Problems" de Hans Norden

"há anos em que décadas acontecem" (parte II)

Ao escrever a Parte I cheguei a fazer esta figura que acabei por não incluir no postal:

Um esquema que ilustra o impacte do contexto externo sobre o desempenho das empresas exportadoras portuguesas.

Ontem ao fazer a minha caminhada matinal ao longo do rio Tinto em Rio Tinto sublinhei:

“Colonel John R. Boyd said, “He who can handle the quickest rate of change survives,” in which “quick” does not refer to speed but the amount of time that elapses in transitioning the system from one state to another. Hence, when competitors experience similar challenges, fast transients should be conducted asymmetrically, so as to complete a transition from one state to the next in less time than anyone else. Also, Boyd favored abrupt, fast transients that come as a surprise. Consequently, the antidote to uncertainty is adaptability—not certainty.”

Trecho retirado de "The Root Cause: Rethink Your Approach to Solving Stubborn Enterprise-Wide Problems" de Hans Norden

"há anos em que décadas acontecem"

Há uma citação atribuída a Lenin:

"Há décadas em que nada acontece, mas há semanas em que décadas acontecem"

A minha versão será:

"Há décadas em que nada acontece, mas há anos em que décadas acontecem" 

Por um lado o impacte das mudanças a nível dos consumidores: 

"During the pandemic, companies had to pivot quickly to meet new consumer demands

...

However, the pandemic was not the most dangerous time for big companies. 

Instead, today is the most fraught for established players, 

...

“Customer loyalty has changed. Customer buying habits have changed. Priorities have changed as well,” says Blank, 

...

With pandemic restrictions changing in the U.S., Blank says, consumer behavior is due to shift again. But how exactly? Well, he’s not so sure. Companies should prepare for many scenarios.

...

 This is a huge opportunity for all the chairs to be rearranged. Market leaders are vulnerable to new entrants. This is a great time to be a new entrant. This is a very dangerous time to be an existing market leader."

Por outro lado as alterações a nível da globalização: The changing nature of globalisation, o impacte da invasão da Ucrânia, a política do Covid zero:

Uma surpresa boa!

A leitura de "The Root Cause: Rethink Your Approach to Solving Stubborn Enterprise-Wide Problems" de Hans Norden está a ser uma surpresa, por vezes brutal. Toda uma série de hibridações que desenvolvi ao longo dos anos a aparecerem-me, página após página em lingua inglesa.

Já vi muita gente a usar o modelo de cadeia de valor de Porter de muita maneira, mas não assim:

“The value chain is a representation of the process by which input variables are transformed into output variables. Therefore, the value chain’s design, organization or structure, implementation or operation, maintenance, and management are a function of its competitive advantage.

Within the value chain, each business function has its own objective that contributes to and supports the realization of the overall purpose of the value chain.”

O modelo de Porter usado como uso os mapas de processos!

Olhar para as organizações como seres vivos, organismos e não mecanismos:

“Note the difference in perception of a business, and therefore its value chain, as an organism or as a mechanism. The specifications and design of individual component parts that constitute a value chain are less important than their intricately interdependent and synergistic relationships, which determine a business’s character and nature as an organic whole.”

A linguagem que aprendi com Goldratt e Dettmer 

“It makes sense to distinguish between the desired state and the current state when they are misaligned—when the value chain experiences change. The root cause can originate from outperforming the aim or by easing up on the aim, or by changing the benchmark for success.”

A doença do eficientismo, a doença de saltar para soluções sem perceber as causas: 

“Beware of managers with a finance background who are prone to perceive this altered state as a financial problem in need of a financial solution, which usually means increasing operational efficiency. The unfortunate effect of treating symptoms is ignorance about the magnitude of the problem, jumping to conclusions that might even aggravate the problem, and allowing the problem to linger and fester. As a result, problems will persist, recur, or become a latent condition that can wreak havoc when least expected and tend to arrive at a critical moment in the business’s future.”

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte VII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV e parte V e parte VI.

Os hidden champions e a inovação:

"Innovations must either improve the value to customer or provide an existing value at a lower cost. Ideally, they do both. The word "innovation" is primarily associated with technology and new products, and technology is in fact the key factor behind most hidden champions' innovativeness." 

Os hidden champions e a concorrência:

"The hidden champions operate predominantly in oligopolistic markets, and even on a global scale, they face only a limited number of competitors. However, competition is fierce. Their strategy is oriented to superior performance, not low prices. Their long-standing competitive advantage of product quality continues to form the core of their market leadership. They also offer excellent service. More recently, they have developed superior positions in softer parameters such as advice and systems integration. As these parameters are based on internal competencies, they are difficult to imitate and therefore sustainable.

...

Competition between established providers is very intense, but relates primarily to performance and innovation, less to price;

...

Trechos retirados de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon.

Quantas empresas?

Como não recordar o velho ditado deste blogue, "Volume is vanity, profit is sanity". Como não recuar a 2007 e a Correr, correr, correr, só para não sair do sítio... 

"BERLIN, April 6 (Reuters) German carmaker Volkswagen will axe many combustion engine models by the end of the decade and sell fewer cars overall to concentrate on producing more profitable premium vehicles, its finance chief was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

"The key target is not growth, Arno Antlitz told the Financial Times newspaper. "We are (more focused) on quality and on margins, rather than on volume and market share."

Antlitz said VW would reduce its range of petrol and diesel cars, consisting of at least 100 models spread across several brands, by 60% in Europe over the next eight years.

The paper said VW's new strategy was a sign of profound changes in the auto sector, which has attempted for decades to increase profits by selling more cars each year, even if that required heavy discounting.

Former VW chief executive Martin Winterkorn, who resigned in the wake of a diesel emissions scandal, had made it his goal to beat Toyota and General Motors to the title of "volume number one" by 2018."

Trechos retirados de "VW to scrap models and focus on premium market -CFO tells FT" 

Quando esta semana li a notícia, num jornal português que não consigo precisar, pensei logo nas muitas análises de contexto que vejo nas empresas.

Por causa da ISO 9001 as organizações fazem, ou supostamente fazem, análises de contexto. Listam factores internos e externos mas depois ... o que fazem com isso? Nada, ou quase nada, ou folclore para auditor.

Quantas empresas certificadas e envolvidas no universo de fornecedores da VW vão reflectir sobre isto? E recuo a 2009 e a Perspectivar o futuro:

"As equipas de gestão dedicam, em média, menos de 1 hora por mês a discutir a sua estratégia!!!

Os autores não falam sobre as equipas de gestão do nosso país, referem-se aos Estados Unidos.

Pois bem, ontem descobri mais uma citação do mesmo calibre, desta vez atribuída a Hamel:

“On average senior managers devote less than 3 percent ... of their time to building a corporate perspective on their future.” [Hamel 1995] Hamel goes on to point out that some companies devote even less, and suggests that such efforts are far too little to generate helpful projections about the future.”"

Que pode um auditor dizer quando vê uma análise de contexto feita de forma infantil ou de forma negligente? Recordo Deming: "Survival is not mandatory" e também "It Isn’t Illegal to Be Stupid" (parte V).

Recordo Por que não fazer o exercício agora? e o muito recente O risco da complacência.

quando há uma catástrofe ... uns choram, outros vendem lenços

Ontem de manhã antes de sair de casa, li na diagonal no Jornal de Negócios o artigo, "Escalada de preços pode ameaçar o verão". Depois, durante a caminhada matinal ouvi o programa de Camilo Lourenço. Mesmo a chegar ao fim (a partir do minuto 21:50) oiço-o dizer:

- O que se pode propor para resolver isto? Nada!

Surpreendeu-me. Nada?! Não se pode fazer nada?

Ele assume que a alta de preços vai reduzir a procura e, por isso não há nada a fazer. Sim, acredito que a procura global vai cair, mas porque é que os operadores turísticos portugueses hão-de aceitar que a sua procura natural caia, sem procurar atraír nova procura que eventualmente estivesse destinada a outros mercados?

Claro, se estiverem à espera do governo... deste ou outro, quando é preciso agilidade, não vão a lado nenhum.

Na semana passada numa conversa a caminho de Bragança recordei uma experiência pessoal. Algures por volta de 1991, ao final da tarde, na esquadra de Hill Street (era assim que o meu local de trabalho era conhecido internamente, um open space onde 12 ou 13 pessoas tinham a sua secretária e, por causa disso, às vezes parecia replicar o reboliço da esquadra da série televisiva. Às vezes estavam mais de 20 pessoas com 4 ou 5 conversas em simultâneo), os cinco jovens engenheiros, estavam com os pés em cima da mesa a trocar cromos sobre o dia de trabalho, sobre o que leram nas revistas que a empresa fazia circular, sobre o campeonato de futebol, ... Um dia a conversa caiu sobre um artigo de uma revista e umas contas que um colega de Espinho e outro de Coimbra tinham feito sobre uma cena chamada cogeração. A nossa empresa produzia vapor a 30 bar, usava-o a 30 bar e a 20 bar. Com a cogeração além do vapor necessário para o processo podia-se produzir energia. A conversa aqueceu, muito entusiasmo. Eles fizeram um memorando que enviaram à administração. Cerca de 6 meses depois um cogerador da Mitsubishi estava a entrar pela fábrica. O investimento tinha um retorno estupidamente alto, pagava-se em meses. O meu colega de viagem para Bragança disse: 

- Se fosse agora. Primeiro perguntavam se havia apoio, se havia algum financiamento comunitário. Depois, ficavam meses à espera que abrisse o apoio, depois que abrissem as candidaturas, depois o habitual calvário das exigências da treta, depois os atrasos... o investimento tarde ou nunca avançaria.

Voltando ao turismo, há que recordar a frase: quando há uma catástrofe ... uns choram, outros vendem lenços.

Para reflexão

Ontem de manhã li este texto impressionante:

Depois, durante a caminhada matinal sublinhei estes tweets:

E recordei esta afirmação:

E outras frases da última semana:

• Cirurgias no privado cresceram 25% e são cada vez menos para o SNS
• Mais de cinco milhões de portugueses têm seguro privado ou subsistema de saúde
• Alexandre Lourenço. "Só quem não tem meios para ir a outro lado é que espera horas e horas numa urgência"

Por fim ... recordei John Boyd:

"Tiger, one day you will come to a fork in the road, and you’re going to have to make a decision about which direction you want to go. If you go that way you can be somebody. You will have to make compromises and you will have to turn your back on your friends. But you will be a member of the club, and you will get promoted and you will get good assignments.

Or you can go that way and you can do something—something for your country and for your organization and for yourself. If you decide you want to do something, you may not get promoted and you may not get the good assignments and you certainly will not be a favorite of your superiors. But you won’t have to compromise yourself. You will be true to your friends and to yourself. And your work might make a difference. To be somebody or to do something. In life there is often a roll call. That’s when you will have to make a decision. To be or to do? Which way will you go?"

Tratamento sintomático

Ontem de manhã, no Jornal de Negócios, li:

"O que explica que, sendo o décimo pais que mais fundos recebe face ao PIB, Portugal tenha dos piores desempenhos económicos na UE?

- Portugal está praticamente estagnado desde 2000 porque não tem tido uma boa performance no que toca a crescimento sustentado."

Depois, durante a minha caminhada matinal sublinhei:

"Complexity, in combination with unfolding new and unforeseen circumstances, produces systemic problems that manifest themselves throughout the enterprise.

...

Systemic problems tend to be stubborn because their root cause(s) are not obvious; it takes a deliberate and concerted effort to diagnose them and create authentic solutions. Unfortunately, only a few CEOs deliberately choose to initiate and sustain such an effort. The majority of CEOs tend to favor investing in the same familiar solutions that caused the systemic problems in the first place because they find them prudent, safer, and easily defensible because others have already opted for the same solution. This is precisely why systemic problems are so costly and why they can linger in the system for such a long period of time. Nothing changes until someone intervenes with innovative and effective solutions, or until these problems unleash a destructive chain reaction-whichever comes first.

...

Treatment of symptoms - without knowing their root cause(s)-is malpractice. Root causes can only be solved with solutions which efficacy is grounded in proven cause-and-effect relationships, thus predicting to restore integrity to the system. That is what distinguishes them as authentic solutions.

...

The obstacle standing between a CEO’s experience of confusion and disorder and solving systemic problems is the individual’s own mental programming—in other words, the principles and methods she or he accepts because of a belief that they are valid and true and those she or he rejects because of a belief that they are invalid and untrue."

E recordei-me de "- Drop your tools!!! Ou porque não era o verdadeiro socialismo"

Trechos retirados de "The Root Cause: Rethink Your Approach to Solving Stubborn Enterprise-Wide Problems" de Hans Norden.

O risco da complacência

Este artigo, "Leading Change Means Changing How You Lead", começa assim:

"To develop effective strategy amid constant change, leaders must hone their ability to determine which changes will boost their organization's competitiveness. This series examines data from companies worldwide to provide practical insights for business leaders seeking advantage as they navigate complexity and change."

Para já concentro-me na situação das organizações bem sucedidas que não se apercebem da mudança e das suas implicações:

"When a business is performing well on fit to purpose and relative advantage, the leader needs to recognize the twin dangers of complacency (believing that there's no need for change) and hubris (overconfidence in the quality of one's leadership). Contextually effective leaders combat complacency by continually striving for change, and they combat hubris by recognizing that their own opinion is less significant than the opinions of key stakeholders."

E recuei a 2007/2008 e a um caso ... desenhei um cenário sobre um futuro que me parecia claro. O cenário foi desprezado e eu vi o projecto terminado. Menos de 28 meses depois grande parte do cenário concretizou-se e a organização viu o seu mundo desabar, literalmente. 

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte VI)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV e parte V 

"The hidden champions' customers are very demanding and have complex requirements. Fig. 5.3 shows the importance of 13 performance attributes.

...

...

The findings indicate that the hidden champions do not have to compete primarily through price. Their customers are far more interested in quality and economy."

Trechos retirados de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon. 

O papel da personalização

"Personalization is not only a crucial capability, it's one that punches above its weight, no matter whether the company is a digital native, a brick-and-mortar player, or a behind-the-scenes producer or supplier.

Consumers don't just want personalization, they demand it. With store and product loyalty more elusive, getting it right matters. Roughly 75 percent of consumers tried a new shopping behavior in the last 18 months, and more than 80 percent of those intend to continue with new behaviors.

Furthermore, our research found that companies that excel at personalization generate 40 percent more revenue from those activities than average players."

Ainda esta semana tive uma interacção com uma empresa... ao fim de muitas barreiras consegui chegar a um humano que resolveu o problema.

Trecho retirado de "The value of getting personalization right-or wrong--is multiplying"

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte V)

Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV.

Mais um conjunto de lições a reter dos "hidden champions":

• focalização em clientes-alvo de um nicho e procurá-los em todo o mundo: globalização
• desenvolvimento de fortes relações com os clientes

"How does a company ascend to world market leadership? Certainly not by staying at home and waiting for customers to call on it. Instead, the hidden champions venture into the world and offer their products wherever their customers are. This process of globalization typically takes generations and requires unending stamina. In the preceding chapter we learned that the hidden champions operate in narrowly defined and therefore relatively small markets. To expand these markets, the hidden champions have chosen globalization as the second pillar of their strategy besides focus. This means that they are narrow in the substance of their business and wide in the regional dimension. The hidden champions' world markets are far larger than their respective home markets.

...

The consequences of narrow market definition are even more pronounced for supernichists and market owners. Even in large countries, niche markets can become tiny. The hidden champions would be doomed to remain small without the possibility of regional expansion. Consequently, globalization is the second pillar of their strategy.

...

The narrow market definition based on application, technology, target group or other criteria is coupled with a wide market definition regarding the regional dimension. These are the two major pillars of the hidden champion strategy: specialization in product and know-how combined with breadth in the regional market coverage, normally on a global scale.

...

The hidden champions have extremely close relationships with their customers, due to the complexity of the products and services they offer. Three-quarters of the companies practice direct sales. Five times as many employees in hidden champion companies have regular contact with customers than in large corporations, leading to the pronounced closeness.

...

Many hidden champions cooperate very closely with their top customers and benefit from them as drivers of performance and as references. The customers' demands are aimed primarily at high performance rather than at low prices. The products and services supplied by the hidden champions offer not only top quality with high-tech content, but also increasingly comprehensive advice and systems solutions. Prices are clearly above market level.

...

The hidden champions' relationships with their customers are close and interactive. The main reason is that, in general, they offer complex product and service programs, often even systems solutions. Such programs cannot be sold off the peg, but require detailed consultation processes."

Trechos retirados de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon. 

Mudar o jogo, liderar a mudança

O primeiro livro de Kaplan e Norton sobre o balanced scorecard (BSC), "The balanced scorecard", foi publicado em 1996. 

O segundo, "The strategy-focused organization", foi publicado em 2001. Depois de ler "The strategy-focused organization" despertei para a função do BSC não como instrumento de monitorização, mas como promotor da transformação estratégica das organizações. Quando na BSC Euro Summit de 2004 o terceiro livro foi distribuído, "Strategy Maps", já a ideia em mim estava bem enraizada.

Volto a recordar isto depois de ler "How the Wrong KPIs Doom Digital Transformation", onde sublinhei:

"Most legacy companies treat KPIs as reporting and accounting mechanisms rather than strategic decision drivers; they're used more to keep score than change the game. Clinging to these legacy KPI perspectives gets in the way of successful digital transformation strategies; these KPIs are literally counterproductive.

We argue that KPIs should lead, not track, digital initiatives. Top management must define and communicate both the key performance that is required to execute its strategic plan and the digital capabilities that will enable that performance."

Duas posturas completamente diferentes, como o puxar versus empurrar. Puxar significa estar mentalmente no futuro, a puxar para que a organização faça a transição que transforma esse local imaginário num local real. 

The brain and the heart

 

"When firms (or persons) assert a purpose, they have to choose between aspiring to help others, and seeking their own self-interest.

...

The largest and most successful firms in the world today... are explicitly obsessed with delivering value to customers, 

...

It’s easy to become cynical about business, when we hear outrageous claims made for their products, and the stretching of the truth of how socially responsive their regular business is.

...

Many firms try to strike a balance between exploitation and exploration. The firm is “built to minimize risk and keep people in their boxes and silos,” as business school professor John Kotter writes. People “are working with a system that is designed to get today’s job done—a system that asks most people, usually benignly, to be quiet, take orders, and do their jobs in a repetitive way.” Such a workplace can never be life-inspiring. The answer though is not to add an extraneous purpose on top. The firm has to make co-creation of customer value the central thrust of everything the company does.

...

Managing a big firm today is driven by figures and statistics, for which high-powered brainpower is the sine qua non. Yet such dry analyses are missing the dimension that is necessary to excite customers. Firm must activate their own hearts if they wish to reach the hearts of their staff and their customers and create life-inspiring firms. The brain alone won’t get the job done."

Trechos retirados de "Six Steps To Creating A Life-Inspiring Corporation"

E novidades?

 

Ontem, 29 de Março de 2022 o Público publicou "Investimento na: auto-estradas ajudou à litoralização e suburbanização do país".

Recordo 26 de Novembro de 2009, este blogue publicou "Folhas na corrente (parte VII)". Mais completo este outro postal de 2018, "Really, karma is a bitch!".

"any primary goal had to be bounded by a constraint"

"To be effective, though, goals and metrics need to be clear and simple, and the fewer the better.

...

But we realized that going all in on a KPI without putting some sort of check on it could have serious unintended consequences. We knew that any primary goal had to be bounded by a constraint, as in, "Maximize X without reducing Y.""

Trechos retirados de "The Quest for a Killer KPI". 

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte IV)

Parte I e parte II e parte III.

Mais um conjunto de lições a reter dos "hidden champions":

• Criam os seus mercados através da abordagem e definição do mesmo
• Trabalham constantemente para manter o product/serviço à frente
• Usam a escassez como forma de controlar o preço e não tornar o mercado atraente para os gigantes
• Evitam a diversificação para não se distrairem do que é essencial para o seu mercado.

"Market domination strategies adopted by supernichists or market owners are not easily imitated by normal companies, just as it makes no sense for an average violinist to compete with Anne-Sophie Mutter or Itzhak Perlman. The simplest way for a company to own a market is to create that market itself. Ideally, such a market does not yet exist and is created or defined by the new product. In addition, the uniqueness of the product must be sustainable. Imitation or the establishment of similar markets must be prevented at all costs. The product's outstanding position must be continually renewed and defended over time. Various instruments can be used to maintain a product's uniqueness:

• Patent protection, 
• powerful trademark or logo, 
• intensive relationships and familiarity with customers, and 
• artistic designs with frequent updates.

...

However, scarcity also means that the supernichists or market owners voluntarily refrain from exploiting their full growth potential. Exclusivity can only be maintained if volume expansion is controlled.

Market owners teach us valuable lessons in relationship marketing. They have been spoiling their loyal customers for years, initiating clubs and collectors' movements long before these concepts were discovered by the marketing literature.

...

Those who enjoy sustained success are wise enough to stay specialized and secretive, and to keep their markets small. These can be important lessons for other companies.

Superniches limit growth opportunities and make the deliberate decision not to grow, 

...

It is evident that the strong focus of the hidden champions harbors risks. After all, it means putting "all the eggs in one basket." Are the hidden champions too highly dependent on their narrow markets, just a handful of customers, and the business cycles they cannot compensate elsewhere?

...

The hidden champions are committed to their markets for better or worse. The risks of this dependence should not be underestimated. Whether specialization goes too far can only be determined on an individual basis. Focus is simultaneously the foundation of strength and a source of risk.

There are essentially three types of risks:

• Dependence on one market ("all eggs in one basket").
• An upscale market niche can be attacked by standard products (risk of losing the premium position).
• The niche's small market volume or high costs may erode customer acceptance and/or price competitiveness.

...

The hidden champions avoid the risk of distraction from their core business, a mistake that is frequently fatal for diversified companies. The hidden champions rarely sell off businesses. Focus on the core business and the risks associated with it force the hidden champions to keep a close eye on their market and to defend their position by swift reactions to changes in customer needs or to new technological developments. The dependence on their market makes them ferocious defenders and great innovators."

Traduções ...

 

"This example is drawn from Stephen Covey’s The 8th Habit: When workers in an organization were polled, “only 37% said they have a clear understanding of what their organization is trying to achieve and why… Only 1 in 5 was enthusiastic about their team’s and organization’s goals. Only 1 in 5 workers said they have a clear ‘line of sight’ between their tasks and their team’s and organization’s goals… Only 15% felt that their organization fully enables them to execute key goals… Only 20% fully trusted the organization they work for.”

It’s hard, right? We don’t know what the organization does, and it may in fact be many different things that would be hard to miniaturize all together. But with a good analogy, Stephen Covey was able to build a model that worked.

"Imagine if you were coaching 11 people on a soccer team, and only 4 of your players knew which goal they were aiming for. Only 2 of your players cared about which goal was theirs. Only 2 players knew their position and how it related to the team overall. Only 2 players really trusted the coaches and team owners. Only 2 players thought that they were given enough support to play their position as well as they knew they could. Most of your players would be aimlessly kicking a ball around the field.”

The office did not produce soccer. But all the results apply to team dynamics we could easily observe in a soccer team. You don’t have to be a deep fan or supporter to have feelings and reactions when you imagine this dysfunctional team. People running in the wrong direction, kicking willy-nilly, ignoring their coaches, lacking the training or support to play their positions—it’s a mess and an embarrassment. And we could expect the organization to have some analogous losses to its ability to function. The soccer analogy just makes it instantly visible, while the problems of a dysfunctional workplace are more slippery and insidious."

Trecho retirado de "Making Numbers Count" de Chip Heath e Karla Starr