Sildávia, exportações em alta e crescimento anémico

Ontem no Jornal de Negócios podia ler-se na capa:

Como não recuar de imediato a 2008 e à previsão mais fácil de todas as que foram feitas neste blogue: É triste ... (BTW, em Julho de 2018 Nuno Garoupa escrevia no Público "Quer isso dizer que, dentro de dez anos, com enorme probabilidade, apenas a Bulgária e a Roménia serão mais pobres que Portugal." Sorry, estamos em 2022 e a Roménia está à beira de nos ultrapassar.) Sim:

Interessante ... pensem bem naquela capa do JdN:

As exportações dos primeiros dois meses do ano 2022 superam as de 2021 em praticamente todos os sectores económicos. Por exemplo calçado 24%; mobiliário 11%; metalomecânica 9%; têxtil e vestuário 20%; plásticos 30%; borracha 15%; cerâmica 29%; farmacêuticos 13%; fertilizantes 137%, ... (OK, automóveis -4%)

Por exemplo, achei interessante encontrar em "Europe Wants Its Supply Chains Close to Home But It's Complicated" este relato:

"Maia & Borges, a toymaker based in northern Portugal, is on course for 12 million euros (almost $13 million) of revenue in 2022, up from 1.5 million euros in 2019, having won multiple orders from Europe, and the U.S when Asian supply chains were snarled up in the early months of the pandemic. Patricia Maia, chief executive officer, said the family firm will make 10 million toys this year and is building a third factory to cope with demand expected to hit 40 million by 2024. "From a business perspective, we've had a good two years,' she said."

Há menos de um mês escrevi Pergunta sincera, pergunta honesta sobre os dois cenários: com ou sem China. Onde discorro sobre a competitividade sem produtividade. Por fim, volto a Portugal não irá crescer se continuar a “exportar ‘mais do mesmo’”.

Lembrem-se, a culpa nunca é dos empresários no terreno. Esses dão o melhor que podem e sabem, alguns conseguem subir na escala de valor. Devemos sempre recordar o cão dos Baskerville: quem é que não está no terreno e porque não aparecem? 

Ainda esta semana foi-me roubada a atenção para esta notícia, por exemplo: "Simoldes investe 45 milhões em nova fábrica em Espanha". Não pela empresa, mas pelo sinal, mas pelo exemplo. Por que acontecem coisas deste tipo?

Lembram-se dos jogadores de bilhar amador contentes por terem roubado uma empresa aos lituanos? Em Ultrapassados pelo Leste

Como diria a Red Queen, in order to stay in a (competitive) place you have to run very hard, whereas to get anywhere you have to run even harder. Mas to get anywhere, como referem Taleb e Maliranta, é preciso sexo, Sexo, jardineiros, intervencionistas, Taleb e Cavaco Silva (parte III), não como estão a pensar, mas como mecanismo que permite o unlearn e o relearn.

"that starts the race to the bottom"

 

"the hard, cold facts show that competing in an existing category is a race to the bottom.

If everyone says they are "better," consumers get confused. They assume if everyone says they are "the best" at what they do, the only way to make a decision is to compare.

The first thing they compare is price. And that starts the race to the bottom. It's like watching two prizefighters stand in the middle of the ring and pound the shit out of each other."

Trecho retirado de "Niche Down: How To Become Legendary By Being Different" de Christopher Lochhead e Heather Clancy. 

"Great success"

A propósito da contínua subida da carga fiscal e da insaciável voracidade fiscal do estado normando estes recortes:

"Because a rising tide lifts all boats or, as I’ve heard many times in presentations, in a hurricane even turkeys will fly, no one questions an executive’s business governance [a government's] acumen when bottom-line [budget] results meet or exceed expectations. Any attempted criticism is countered with the clincher, “Who can argue with success?” Note that this implies equating success with profits [low deficit], not the system’s capability and capacity for becoming the obvious choice supplier to one’s target audience.[the increase in the emigration of young people and others speaks for itself] 

As we saw before, the difference in governing a business system  [a country] under good and bad economic conditions is the margin for error. Consequently, executive  [government] decision-makers are escorted into the twilight state by their dwindling profit margins [the rise in interest rates and the drop in economic activity, in the face of rigid spending].

Instead of investigating the root cause of one’s dwindling profit margins [fiscal voracity] , executive   [government] decision makers rely on their mental programming. Instead of addressing the cause, they jump on addressing the effect—dwindling profit margins [higher deficit]. When there is this kind of confusion about cause and effect, the root cause is thus often mistakenly perceived as a financial problem. Because increasing income (sales volume and profit margins) [tax withdrawal] is more difficult to achieve in an economic downturn, lowering cost  [the increase in tax loot] is the only remaining logical conclusion.”

Trecho retirado de "The Root Cause: Rethink Your Approach to Solving Stubborn Enterprise-Wide Problems" de Hans Norden.

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte VIII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV, parte V,  parte VI e parte VII.

Os utilizadores da ISO 9001 reconhecerão a cláusula 4.1 sobre a análise do contexto (com as questões internas e externas):

"In assessing the strategic situation, we recommend analyzing external competitive advantages and internal competencies in a similar way.

...

Strategy development usually starts not from scratch, but from point of departure that excludes certain strategy a options.

...

Where should strategy development begin in such a situation? With the market or the company's own competencies? It is often better to start with the question "What can we do?" or "What do we do better than our competitors?" [Moi ici: Talvez uma melhor pergunta seja "O que podemos fazer diferente dos outros?" Isto faz-me recordar e recuar a Outubro de 2015 e a este postal "Do concreto para o abstracto e não o contrário"] That's how we started in this case. Fig. 11.8 shows the matrix of internal competencies for the company's special market and the volume market, with competencies measured in relation to the strongest competitor.  

...

Not surprisingly, it transpired that the company performed extremely well in the special market. By contrast, its position was weak in the volume market, where business had previously only been done opportunistically. In all important competencies the competition was stronger. 

Manufacturing flexibility and financing were the only advantages, both of lesser importance.

The picture was similar with regard to the company's external market position. Fig. 11.9 shows how the customers perceived the company's performance attributes in relation to those of the strongest competitor. A position to the right of 100 signifies performance leadership, and to the left of 100 it means that a competitor is stronger.

In the special market, customers see the company as the clear performance leader. It has very pronounced competitive advantages in the elasticity of the propulsion units, product quality, and closeness to customer. The company fails to beat the competition in price and operating costs only. However, this is not a serious problem in view of the company's superior performance in several important attributes and the relative unimportance of operating costs.

As we have seen, both markets were very attractive to the company, which did not want and could not afford to abandon the special market despite the cuts in defense budgets. What strategic options did the company have?

1. Continue to serve the special market and defend its position there. This basically represents the continuation of the previously successful hidden champion strategy. The risk is considerable that the market remains small or even shrinks. Cost disadvantages could get worse as a result. In addition, some customers in the special market may in the future buy more standard products that were originally intended for the volume market.

2. Develop the competitive competencies required for success in the volume market. Most importantly, this means developing simpler, less sophisticated propulsion units and manufacturing them at cheaper locations. This option was discussed at length, but it ultimately proved to be too time-consuming and risky. The management was unsure whether these competencies could successfully be developed within an acceptable timeframe.

3. Acquire a company that is strong in the volume market but weak in the special market.

Option 3 was chosen. Three candidates were considered in depth, and the most suitable one was taken over in stages."

Trechos retirados de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon.

Raboni

 - Maria! 

Ela, voltando-se, disse-lhe: 

- Raboni.

"become that target audience’s “obvious choice” supplier"

Mais um desfile de temas habituais neste blogue: eficientismo, objectivos versus consequências, obliquidade, originação de valor, clientes-alvo, monopólios informais.

"There seems to be consensus that the purpose of a business is to make money. In other words, success is equated with money. Therefore, everything is given a price tag including people, humanity, health, safety, organizational culture, work climate, values, morality, ethics, pride of workmanship, and the environment.

Consequently, based on theories of operational efficiency, decisions are reduced to an analytic process of determining which solution is economic and which is uneconomic. The one that costs less wins.

...

No one denies the necessity for a commercial enterprise to pursue revenue and a healthy profit margin. The criticism against “making money” is that it should not be professed as the purpose of a business system.

Rather, earning a profit margin is not the purpose of a business but a “prerequisite” for operating a sustainable business. Please do not disregard this distinction between purpose and prerequisite as a matter of semantics, for it is nothing of the sort. Profits are the applause for a job well done, and receiving a standing ovation is the cry for an encore. It is a show of being in demand; it is the proof of a success!

...

The price people are willing to pay for a product or service is equal to the perceived use value they anticipate receiving from their purchase or investment. Because not everyone has the same perception of what constitutes use value, not everyone is a prospective buyer of your brand or your kind of product or service—hence the recognition of market segmentation and the identification of different target audiences.

Rather than creating use value similar to one’s competitors, different expressions of use value can be created by changing the business’s transformation process.

...

The profit margin is thus equal to the utility that a product or service delivers to its intended target audience. Therefore, the challenge of any business, with the exception of monopolies and oligopolies, is to add more utility to its value proposition targeting a specific audience than its immediate competitors. In other words, pursuing this strategy to become that target audience’s “obvious choice” supplier—and thus standing out as the only choice in the hearts and minds of your market segment."

Trecho retirado de "The Root Cause: Rethink Your Approach to Solving Stubborn Enterprise-Wide Problems" de Hans Norden

Que sentido teria a minha vida sem Ti

Desde o final da minha adolescência que resumo o ser cristão a duas estórias que Jesus nos contou. 

• A parábola do filho pródigo, que ilustra o perdão do Pai, que ilustra o como o Pai espera sempre por nós de braços abertos, sem perguntas, sem recriminações.
• A parábola dos talentos, que nos convida a darmos o melhor de nós, que nos pede para nos superarmos a nós próprios, ninguém recebe um desafio maior do que as suas capacidades. Assim, deixemos as lamentações e desculpas e façamos o melhor que soubermos e pudermos.

Quando eu era adolescente achava os monges da Idade Média uns verdadeiros tótós. Passarem a vida a ler a Bíblia… come on, lê-se uma vez e está lida. Quando se é adolescente consegue-se ser muito parvo. Há muito que aprendi que nunca é tarde para aprender, mas às vezes é demasiado cedo. Sempre que repetimos uma leitura, as palavras podem ser as mesmas, mas nós somos diferentes. Sim, "Perception is subjective".

Nos últimos anos tenho-me aproximado da pessoa de Simão Pedro. Simão Pedro sou eu, Simão Pedro somos todos nós. Capaz das afirmações mais Uau, para logo a seguir acobardar-se.

No Domingo passado, Domingo de Ramos, o Evangelho relatou a Paixão e Morte de Jesus. Sim, é a morte do Filho de Deus, como exclamou o centurião romano esmagado pelo que via acontecer perante a Cruz, mas a minha atenção foi para Simão Pedro… ao perceber que acabou de negar Jesus pela terceira vez, afastou-se para “chorar amargamente”. Eu desconfio, eu tenho medo de pensar que também teria medo, que também me acobardaria perante um teste a sério. E os testes a sério ocorrem na vida quotidiana, não em momentos extraordinários.

O mesmo Simão Pedro que quando Jesus lhe pergunta pela terceira vez: 

- Simão, filho de João, tu amas-Me?

Responde de uma forma que cada vez mais me comove, porque nele revejo-me nas minhas lacunas, nas minhas fraquezas, na minha … maldade:

- Senhor, Tu sabes tudo, bem sabes que Te amo.

E a minha mente acrescenta: Que sentido teria a minha vida sem Ti, em que labirinto estaria perdido sem a Tua orientação.

BTW, logo na cerimónia do lava-pés, sei que vou recordar as palavras de Simão Pedro, segundo o Evangelho de João.

"Perception is subjective"

"Perception is subjective. In other words, awareness of a common environment through physical sensations differs from person to person. Therefore, different people have different experiences of reality. Such differences become especially significant when new and unforeseen circumstances unfold before our eyes, such as when events disrupt a business’s normal operating conditions.

...

What we "see" is the result of a successful matchup of patterns in the reality an individual observes and his or her mental programming, which happens throughout our lives and is affected by our education, schooling, cultural habits, customs and traditions, prejudices, interpersonal relationships, work or industry experiences, exposure to different socioeconomic and geopolitical environments, media exposure, travel, and reading.

...

An individual’s perception of reality is thus a matter of creating mental images. We create mental images by matching the object of our observation, or our experience of a situation or condition, with our mental programming. Therefore, reality is judged according to the beliefs we were mentally programmed to accept as right or wrong, valid or invalid, or true or false. And we apply those beliefs to our interpretation of successful value-chain governance and to interpret events as they unfold before our eyes."

Trecho retirado de "The Root Cause: Rethink Your Approach to Solving Stubborn Enterprise-Wide Problems" de Hans Norden

"há anos em que décadas acontecem" (parte II)

Ao escrever a Parte I cheguei a fazer esta figura que acabei por não incluir no postal:

Um esquema que ilustra o impacte do contexto externo sobre o desempenho das empresas exportadoras portuguesas.

Ontem ao fazer a minha caminhada matinal ao longo do rio Tinto em Rio Tinto sublinhei:

“Colonel John R. Boyd said, “He who can handle the quickest rate of change survives,” in which “quick” does not refer to speed but the amount of time that elapses in transitioning the system from one state to another. Hence, when competitors experience similar challenges, fast transients should be conducted asymmetrically, so as to complete a transition from one state to the next in less time than anyone else. Also, Boyd favored abrupt, fast transients that come as a surprise. Consequently, the antidote to uncertainty is adaptability—not certainty.”

Trecho retirado de "The Root Cause: Rethink Your Approach to Solving Stubborn Enterprise-Wide Problems" de Hans Norden

"há anos em que décadas acontecem"

Há uma citação atribuída a Lenin:

"Há décadas em que nada acontece, mas há semanas em que décadas acontecem"

A minha versão será:

"Há décadas em que nada acontece, mas há anos em que décadas acontecem" 

Por um lado o impacte das mudanças a nível dos consumidores: 

"During the pandemic, companies had to pivot quickly to meet new consumer demands

...

However, the pandemic was not the most dangerous time for big companies. 

Instead, today is the most fraught for established players, 

...

“Customer loyalty has changed. Customer buying habits have changed. Priorities have changed as well,” says Blank, 

...

With pandemic restrictions changing in the U.S., Blank says, consumer behavior is due to shift again. But how exactly? Well, he’s not so sure. Companies should prepare for many scenarios.

...

 This is a huge opportunity for all the chairs to be rearranged. Market leaders are vulnerable to new entrants. This is a great time to be a new entrant. This is a very dangerous time to be an existing market leader."

Por outro lado as alterações a nível da globalização: The changing nature of globalisation, o impacte da invasão da Ucrânia, a política do Covid zero:

Uma surpresa boa!

A leitura de "The Root Cause: Rethink Your Approach to Solving Stubborn Enterprise-Wide Problems" de Hans Norden está a ser uma surpresa, por vezes brutal. Toda uma série de hibridações que desenvolvi ao longo dos anos a aparecerem-me, página após página em lingua inglesa.

Já vi muita gente a usar o modelo de cadeia de valor de Porter de muita maneira, mas não assim:

“The value chain is a representation of the process by which input variables are transformed into output variables. Therefore, the value chain’s design, organization or structure, implementation or operation, maintenance, and management are a function of its competitive advantage.

Within the value chain, each business function has its own objective that contributes to and supports the realization of the overall purpose of the value chain.”

O modelo de Porter usado como uso os mapas de processos!

Olhar para as organizações como seres vivos, organismos e não mecanismos:

“Note the difference in perception of a business, and therefore its value chain, as an organism or as a mechanism. The specifications and design of individual component parts that constitute a value chain are less important than their intricately interdependent and synergistic relationships, which determine a business’s character and nature as an organic whole.”

A linguagem que aprendi com Goldratt e Dettmer 

“It makes sense to distinguish between the desired state and the current state when they are misaligned—when the value chain experiences change. The root cause can originate from outperforming the aim or by easing up on the aim, or by changing the benchmark for success.”

A doença do eficientismo, a doença de saltar para soluções sem perceber as causas: 

“Beware of managers with a finance background who are prone to perceive this altered state as a financial problem in need of a financial solution, which usually means increasing operational efficiency. The unfortunate effect of treating symptoms is ignorance about the magnitude of the problem, jumping to conclusions that might even aggravate the problem, and allowing the problem to linger and fester. As a result, problems will persist, recur, or become a latent condition that can wreak havoc when least expected and tend to arrive at a critical moment in the business’s future.”

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte VII)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV e parte V e parte VI.

Os hidden champions e a inovação:

"Innovations must either improve the value to customer or provide an existing value at a lower cost. Ideally, they do both. The word "innovation" is primarily associated with technology and new products, and technology is in fact the key factor behind most hidden champions' innovativeness." 

Os hidden champions e a concorrência:

"The hidden champions operate predominantly in oligopolistic markets, and even on a global scale, they face only a limited number of competitors. However, competition is fierce. Their strategy is oriented to superior performance, not low prices. Their long-standing competitive advantage of product quality continues to form the core of their market leadership. They also offer excellent service. More recently, they have developed superior positions in softer parameters such as advice and systems integration. As these parameters are based on internal competencies, they are difficult to imitate and therefore sustainable.

...

Competition between established providers is very intense, but relates primarily to performance and innovation, less to price;

...

Trechos retirados de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon.

Quantas empresas?

Como não recordar o velho ditado deste blogue, "Volume is vanity, profit is sanity". Como não recuar a 2007 e a Correr, correr, correr, só para não sair do sítio... 

"BERLIN, April 6 (Reuters) German carmaker Volkswagen will axe many combustion engine models by the end of the decade and sell fewer cars overall to concentrate on producing more profitable premium vehicles, its finance chief was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

"The key target is not growth, Arno Antlitz told the Financial Times newspaper. "We are (more focused) on quality and on margins, rather than on volume and market share."

Antlitz said VW would reduce its range of petrol and diesel cars, consisting of at least 100 models spread across several brands, by 60% in Europe over the next eight years.

The paper said VW's new strategy was a sign of profound changes in the auto sector, which has attempted for decades to increase profits by selling more cars each year, even if that required heavy discounting.

Former VW chief executive Martin Winterkorn, who resigned in the wake of a diesel emissions scandal, had made it his goal to beat Toyota and General Motors to the title of "volume number one" by 2018."

Trechos retirados de "VW to scrap models and focus on premium market -CFO tells FT" 

Quando esta semana li a notícia, num jornal português que não consigo precisar, pensei logo nas muitas análises de contexto que vejo nas empresas.

Por causa da ISO 9001 as organizações fazem, ou supostamente fazem, análises de contexto. Listam factores internos e externos mas depois ... o que fazem com isso? Nada, ou quase nada, ou folclore para auditor.

Quantas empresas certificadas e envolvidas no universo de fornecedores da VW vão reflectir sobre isto? E recuo a 2009 e a Perspectivar o futuro:

"As equipas de gestão dedicam, em média, menos de 1 hora por mês a discutir a sua estratégia!!!

Os autores não falam sobre as equipas de gestão do nosso país, referem-se aos Estados Unidos.

Pois bem, ontem descobri mais uma citação do mesmo calibre, desta vez atribuída a Hamel:

“On average senior managers devote less than 3 percent ... of their time to building a corporate perspective on their future.” [Hamel 1995] Hamel goes on to point out that some companies devote even less, and suggests that such efforts are far too little to generate helpful projections about the future.”"

Que pode um auditor dizer quando vê uma análise de contexto feita de forma infantil ou de forma negligente? Recordo Deming: "Survival is not mandatory" e também "It Isn’t Illegal to Be Stupid" (parte V).

Recordo Por que não fazer o exercício agora? e o muito recente O risco da complacência.

quando há uma catástrofe ... uns choram, outros vendem lenços

Ontem de manhã antes de sair de casa, li na diagonal no Jornal de Negócios o artigo, "Escalada de preços pode ameaçar o verão". Depois, durante a caminhada matinal ouvi o programa de Camilo Lourenço. Mesmo a chegar ao fim (a partir do minuto 21:50) oiço-o dizer:

- O que se pode propor para resolver isto? Nada!

Surpreendeu-me. Nada?! Não se pode fazer nada?

Ele assume que a alta de preços vai reduzir a procura e, por isso não há nada a fazer. Sim, acredito que a procura global vai cair, mas porque é que os operadores turísticos portugueses hão-de aceitar que a sua procura natural caia, sem procurar atraír nova procura que eventualmente estivesse destinada a outros mercados?

Claro, se estiverem à espera do governo... deste ou outro, quando é preciso agilidade, não vão a lado nenhum.

Na semana passada numa conversa a caminho de Bragança recordei uma experiência pessoal. Algures por volta de 1991, ao final da tarde, na esquadra de Hill Street (era assim que o meu local de trabalho era conhecido internamente, um open space onde 12 ou 13 pessoas tinham a sua secretária e, por causa disso, às vezes parecia replicar o reboliço da esquadra da série televisiva. Às vezes estavam mais de 20 pessoas com 4 ou 5 conversas em simultâneo), os cinco jovens engenheiros, estavam com os pés em cima da mesa a trocar cromos sobre o dia de trabalho, sobre o que leram nas revistas que a empresa fazia circular, sobre o campeonato de futebol, ... Um dia a conversa caiu sobre um artigo de uma revista e umas contas que um colega de Espinho e outro de Coimbra tinham feito sobre uma cena chamada cogeração. A nossa empresa produzia vapor a 30 bar, usava-o a 30 bar e a 20 bar. Com a cogeração além do vapor necessário para o processo podia-se produzir energia. A conversa aqueceu, muito entusiasmo. Eles fizeram um memorando que enviaram à administração. Cerca de 6 meses depois um cogerador da Mitsubishi estava a entrar pela fábrica. O investimento tinha um retorno estupidamente alto, pagava-se em meses. O meu colega de viagem para Bragança disse: 

- Se fosse agora. Primeiro perguntavam se havia apoio, se havia algum financiamento comunitário. Depois, ficavam meses à espera que abrisse o apoio, depois que abrissem as candidaturas, depois o habitual calvário das exigências da treta, depois os atrasos... o investimento tarde ou nunca avançaria.

Voltando ao turismo, há que recordar a frase: quando há uma catástrofe ... uns choram, outros vendem lenços.

Para reflexão

Ontem de manhã li este texto impressionante:

Depois, durante a caminhada matinal sublinhei estes tweets:

E recordei esta afirmação:

E outras frases da última semana:

• Cirurgias no privado cresceram 25% e são cada vez menos para o SNS
• Mais de cinco milhões de portugueses têm seguro privado ou subsistema de saúde
• Alexandre Lourenço. "Só quem não tem meios para ir a outro lado é que espera horas e horas numa urgência"

Por fim ... recordei John Boyd:

"Tiger, one day you will come to a fork in the road, and you’re going to have to make a decision about which direction you want to go. If you go that way you can be somebody. You will have to make compromises and you will have to turn your back on your friends. But you will be a member of the club, and you will get promoted and you will get good assignments.

Or you can go that way and you can do something—something for your country and for your organization and for yourself. If you decide you want to do something, you may not get promoted and you may not get the good assignments and you certainly will not be a favorite of your superiors. But you won’t have to compromise yourself. You will be true to your friends and to yourself. And your work might make a difference. To be somebody or to do something. In life there is often a roll call. That’s when you will have to make a decision. To be or to do? Which way will you go?"

Tratamento sintomático

Ontem de manhã, no Jornal de Negócios, li:

"O que explica que, sendo o décimo pais que mais fundos recebe face ao PIB, Portugal tenha dos piores desempenhos económicos na UE?

- Portugal está praticamente estagnado desde 2000 porque não tem tido uma boa performance no que toca a crescimento sustentado."

Depois, durante a minha caminhada matinal sublinhei:

"Complexity, in combination with unfolding new and unforeseen circumstances, produces systemic problems that manifest themselves throughout the enterprise.

...

Systemic problems tend to be stubborn because their root cause(s) are not obvious; it takes a deliberate and concerted effort to diagnose them and create authentic solutions. Unfortunately, only a few CEOs deliberately choose to initiate and sustain such an effort. The majority of CEOs tend to favor investing in the same familiar solutions that caused the systemic problems in the first place because they find them prudent, safer, and easily defensible because others have already opted for the same solution. This is precisely why systemic problems are so costly and why they can linger in the system for such a long period of time. Nothing changes until someone intervenes with innovative and effective solutions, or until these problems unleash a destructive chain reaction-whichever comes first.

...

Treatment of symptoms - without knowing their root cause(s)-is malpractice. Root causes can only be solved with solutions which efficacy is grounded in proven cause-and-effect relationships, thus predicting to restore integrity to the system. That is what distinguishes them as authentic solutions.

...

The obstacle standing between a CEO’s experience of confusion and disorder and solving systemic problems is the individual’s own mental programming—in other words, the principles and methods she or he accepts because of a belief that they are valid and true and those she or he rejects because of a belief that they are invalid and untrue."

E recordei-me de "- Drop your tools!!! Ou porque não era o verdadeiro socialismo"

Trechos retirados de "The Root Cause: Rethink Your Approach to Solving Stubborn Enterprise-Wide Problems" de Hans Norden.

O risco da complacência

Este artigo, "Leading Change Means Changing How You Lead", começa assim:

"To develop effective strategy amid constant change, leaders must hone their ability to determine which changes will boost their organization's competitiveness. This series examines data from companies worldwide to provide practical insights for business leaders seeking advantage as they navigate complexity and change."

Para já concentro-me na situação das organizações bem sucedidas que não se apercebem da mudança e das suas implicações:

"When a business is performing well on fit to purpose and relative advantage, the leader needs to recognize the twin dangers of complacency (believing that there's no need for change) and hubris (overconfidence in the quality of one's leadership). Contextually effective leaders combat complacency by continually striving for change, and they combat hubris by recognizing that their own opinion is less significant than the opinions of key stakeholders."

E recuei a 2007/2008 e a um caso ... desenhei um cenário sobre um futuro que me parecia claro. O cenário foi desprezado e eu vi o projecto terminado. Menos de 28 meses depois grande parte do cenário concretizou-se e a organização viu o seu mundo desabar, literalmente. 

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte VI)

Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV e parte V 

"The hidden champions' customers are very demanding and have complex requirements. Fig. 5.3 shows the importance of 13 performance attributes.

...

...

The findings indicate that the hidden champions do not have to compete primarily through price. Their customers are far more interested in quality and economy."

Trechos retirados de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon. 

O papel da personalização

"Personalization is not only a crucial capability, it's one that punches above its weight, no matter whether the company is a digital native, a brick-and-mortar player, or a behind-the-scenes producer or supplier.

Consumers don't just want personalization, they demand it. With store and product loyalty more elusive, getting it right matters. Roughly 75 percent of consumers tried a new shopping behavior in the last 18 months, and more than 80 percent of those intend to continue with new behaviors.

Furthermore, our research found that companies that excel at personalization generate 40 percent more revenue from those activities than average players."

Ainda esta semana tive uma interacção com uma empresa... ao fim de muitas barreiras consegui chegar a um humano que resolveu o problema.

Trecho retirado de "The value of getting personalization right-or wrong--is multiplying"

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte V)

Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV.

Mais um conjunto de lições a reter dos "hidden champions":

• focalização em clientes-alvo de um nicho e procurá-los em todo o mundo: globalização
• desenvolvimento de fortes relações com os clientes

"How does a company ascend to world market leadership? Certainly not by staying at home and waiting for customers to call on it. Instead, the hidden champions venture into the world and offer their products wherever their customers are. This process of globalization typically takes generations and requires unending stamina. In the preceding chapter we learned that the hidden champions operate in narrowly defined and therefore relatively small markets. To expand these markets, the hidden champions have chosen globalization as the second pillar of their strategy besides focus. This means that they are narrow in the substance of their business and wide in the regional dimension. The hidden champions' world markets are far larger than their respective home markets.

...

The consequences of narrow market definition are even more pronounced for supernichists and market owners. Even in large countries, niche markets can become tiny. The hidden champions would be doomed to remain small without the possibility of regional expansion. Consequently, globalization is the second pillar of their strategy.

...

The narrow market definition based on application, technology, target group or other criteria is coupled with a wide market definition regarding the regional dimension. These are the two major pillars of the hidden champion strategy: specialization in product and know-how combined with breadth in the regional market coverage, normally on a global scale.

...

The hidden champions have extremely close relationships with their customers, due to the complexity of the products and services they offer. Three-quarters of the companies practice direct sales. Five times as many employees in hidden champion companies have regular contact with customers than in large corporations, leading to the pronounced closeness.

...

Many hidden champions cooperate very closely with their top customers and benefit from them as drivers of performance and as references. The customers' demands are aimed primarily at high performance rather than at low prices. The products and services supplied by the hidden champions offer not only top quality with high-tech content, but also increasingly comprehensive advice and systems solutions. Prices are clearly above market level.

...

The hidden champions' relationships with their customers are close and interactive. The main reason is that, in general, they offer complex product and service programs, often even systems solutions. Such programs cannot be sold off the peg, but require detailed consultation processes."

Trechos retirados de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon. 

Mudar o jogo, liderar a mudança

O primeiro livro de Kaplan e Norton sobre o balanced scorecard (BSC), "The balanced scorecard", foi publicado em 1996. 

O segundo, "The strategy-focused organization", foi publicado em 2001. Depois de ler "The strategy-focused organization" despertei para a função do BSC não como instrumento de monitorização, mas como promotor da transformação estratégica das organizações. Quando na BSC Euro Summit de 2004 o terceiro livro foi distribuído, "Strategy Maps", já a ideia em mim estava bem enraizada.

Volto a recordar isto depois de ler "How the Wrong KPIs Doom Digital Transformation", onde sublinhei:

"Most legacy companies treat KPIs as reporting and accounting mechanisms rather than strategic decision drivers; they're used more to keep score than change the game. Clinging to these legacy KPI perspectives gets in the way of successful digital transformation strategies; these KPIs are literally counterproductive.

We argue that KPIs should lead, not track, digital initiatives. Top management must define and communicate both the key performance that is required to execute its strategic plan and the digital capabilities that will enable that performance."

Duas posturas completamente diferentes, como o puxar versus empurrar. Puxar significa estar mentalmente no futuro, a puxar para que a organização faça a transição que transforma esse local imaginário num local real. 

The brain and the heart

 

"When firms (or persons) assert a purpose, they have to choose between aspiring to help others, and seeking their own self-interest.

...

The largest and most successful firms in the world today... are explicitly obsessed with delivering value to customers, 

...

It’s easy to become cynical about business, when we hear outrageous claims made for their products, and the stretching of the truth of how socially responsive their regular business is.

...

Many firms try to strike a balance between exploitation and exploration. The firm is “built to minimize risk and keep people in their boxes and silos,” as business school professor John Kotter writes. People “are working with a system that is designed to get today’s job done—a system that asks most people, usually benignly, to be quiet, take orders, and do their jobs in a repetitive way.” Such a workplace can never be life-inspiring. The answer though is not to add an extraneous purpose on top. The firm has to make co-creation of customer value the central thrust of everything the company does.

...

Managing a big firm today is driven by figures and statistics, for which high-powered brainpower is the sine qua non. Yet such dry analyses are missing the dimension that is necessary to excite customers. Firm must activate their own hearts if they wish to reach the hearts of their staff and their customers and create life-inspiring firms. The brain alone won’t get the job done."

Trechos retirados de "Six Steps To Creating A Life-Inspiring Corporation"

E novidades?

 

Ontem, 29 de Março de 2022 o Público publicou "Investimento na: auto-estradas ajudou à litoralização e suburbanização do país".

Recordo 26 de Novembro de 2009, este blogue publicou "Folhas na corrente (parte VII)". Mais completo este outro postal de 2018, "Really, karma is a bitch!".

"any primary goal had to be bounded by a constraint"

"To be effective, though, goals and metrics need to be clear and simple, and the fewer the better.

...

But we realized that going all in on a KPI without putting some sort of check on it could have serious unintended consequences. We knew that any primary goal had to be bounded by a constraint, as in, "Maximize X without reducing Y.""

Trechos retirados de "The Quest for a Killer KPI". 

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte IV)

Parte I e parte II e parte III.

Mais um conjunto de lições a reter dos "hidden champions":

• Criam os seus mercados através da abordagem e definição do mesmo
• Trabalham constantemente para manter o product/serviço à frente
• Usam a escassez como forma de controlar o preço e não tornar o mercado atraente para os gigantes
• Evitam a diversificação para não se distrairem do que é essencial para o seu mercado.

"Market domination strategies adopted by supernichists or market owners are not easily imitated by normal companies, just as it makes no sense for an average violinist to compete with Anne-Sophie Mutter or Itzhak Perlman. The simplest way for a company to own a market is to create that market itself. Ideally, such a market does not yet exist and is created or defined by the new product. In addition, the uniqueness of the product must be sustainable. Imitation or the establishment of similar markets must be prevented at all costs. The product's outstanding position must be continually renewed and defended over time. Various instruments can be used to maintain a product's uniqueness:

• Patent protection, 
• powerful trademark or logo, 
• intensive relationships and familiarity with customers, and 
• artistic designs with frequent updates.

...

However, scarcity also means that the supernichists or market owners voluntarily refrain from exploiting their full growth potential. Exclusivity can only be maintained if volume expansion is controlled.

Market owners teach us valuable lessons in relationship marketing. They have been spoiling their loyal customers for years, initiating clubs and collectors' movements long before these concepts were discovered by the marketing literature.

...

Those who enjoy sustained success are wise enough to stay specialized and secretive, and to keep their markets small. These can be important lessons for other companies.

Superniches limit growth opportunities and make the deliberate decision not to grow, 

...

It is evident that the strong focus of the hidden champions harbors risks. After all, it means putting "all the eggs in one basket." Are the hidden champions too highly dependent on their narrow markets, just a handful of customers, and the business cycles they cannot compensate elsewhere?

...

The hidden champions are committed to their markets for better or worse. The risks of this dependence should not be underestimated. Whether specialization goes too far can only be determined on an individual basis. Focus is simultaneously the foundation of strength and a source of risk.

There are essentially three types of risks:

• Dependence on one market ("all eggs in one basket").
• An upscale market niche can be attacked by standard products (risk of losing the premium position).
• The niche's small market volume or high costs may erode customer acceptance and/or price competitiveness.

...

The hidden champions avoid the risk of distraction from their core business, a mistake that is frequently fatal for diversified companies. The hidden champions rarely sell off businesses. Focus on the core business and the risks associated with it force the hidden champions to keep a close eye on their market and to defend their position by swift reactions to changes in customer needs or to new technological developments. The dependence on their market makes them ferocious defenders and great innovators."

Traduções ...

 

"This example is drawn from Stephen Covey’s The 8th Habit: When workers in an organization were polled, “only 37% said they have a clear understanding of what their organization is trying to achieve and why… Only 1 in 5 was enthusiastic about their team’s and organization’s goals. Only 1 in 5 workers said they have a clear ‘line of sight’ between their tasks and their team’s and organization’s goals… Only 15% felt that their organization fully enables them to execute key goals… Only 20% fully trusted the organization they work for.”

It’s hard, right? We don’t know what the organization does, and it may in fact be many different things that would be hard to miniaturize all together. But with a good analogy, Stephen Covey was able to build a model that worked.

"Imagine if you were coaching 11 people on a soccer team, and only 4 of your players knew which goal they were aiming for. Only 2 of your players cared about which goal was theirs. Only 2 players knew their position and how it related to the team overall. Only 2 players really trusted the coaches and team owners. Only 2 players thought that they were given enough support to play their position as well as they knew they could. Most of your players would be aimlessly kicking a ball around the field.”

The office did not produce soccer. But all the results apply to team dynamics we could easily observe in a soccer team. You don’t have to be a deep fan or supporter to have feelings and reactions when you imagine this dysfunctional team. People running in the wrong direction, kicking willy-nilly, ignoring their coaches, lacking the training or support to play their positions—it’s a mess and an embarrassment. And we could expect the organization to have some analogous losses to its ability to function. The soccer analogy just makes it instantly visible, while the problems of a dysfunctional workplace are more slippery and insidious."

Trecho retirado de "Making Numbers Count" de Chip Heath e Karla Starr

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

Recordar "Niching down" ao ler mais uns trechos de "Hidden Champions":

"One aspect of market definition closely connected with focus relates to the breadth or depth of the product portfolio. Here, we look at the product range and/or the value chain. Breadth refers to the number of different products a company offers. 

...

Among the hidden champions, we predominantly see a deep value chain coupled with a narrow definition of the relevant market.

...

[Moi ici: Segue-se um exemplo] "We analyzed the entire market for commercial dishwashers and found that our world market share was well below 5%. We were an insignificant follower. This prompted us to completely realign our strategy. We tailored our services to serve hotels and restaurants exclusively. We even changed the company's name to Winterhalter Gastronom. We now define our business as providing services for clean glassware and chinaware in hotels and restaurants and take full responsibility for this. We have extended our range to include water treatment systems and our own brand of dishwashing agents. We offer excellent, round-the-clock service. Our world market share in the hotels/restaurants segment is now 15%-20% and increasing. In this market segment, we are always first choice."

...

Numerous hidden champions take their market definitions even further and specialize in extremely narrow niches. Some "create" their markets so that there are no real competitors and they have 100% market share. 

...

On a world scale, even a superniche like that can have an attractive volume. [Moi ici: Recordar O fim da barreira geográfica] The Swedish firm Poc does not aim for the far larger market for protective motorcycle helmets but has deliberately concentrated on the small segment of protective ski helmets. On the motorcycle helmet market, the company wouldn't stand a chance against strong market leaders like HJC from Korea, but Poc is set to become the global number one in protective ski helmets. Ismet Koyun says, "There is no competition for our technology in the world.""

Trechos retirados de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon. 

Pergunta sincera, pergunta honesta

No último mês já escrevi quatro postais com o mesmo título - O risco de voltar a trabalhar com a China (parte IV).

A China é o banhista gordo. Sair da China provocará/provoca "engarrafamentos" em todo mundo.

Ontem de madrugada, antes de sair de casa, vi este artigo no Financial Times, "BlackRock's Fink says Ukraine war marks end of globalisation":

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine will reshape the world economy and further drive up inflation by prompting companies to pull back from their global supply chains, BlackRock's Larry Fink has warned.

"The Russian invasion of Ukraine has put an end to the globalisation we have experienced over the last three decades," Fink wrote in his annual chairman's letter to shareholders of BlackRock, which oversees $ 10tn as the world's largest asset manager.

...

The letter did not mention any specific country that would be hurt by the shifts, but Fink wrote that "Mexico, Brazil, the United States, or manufacturing hubs in southeast Asia could stand to benefit". Other investors have argued that the last group could substitute for China, where BlackRock last year launched a set of retail investment products."

Entretanto, à hora do almoço vi a capa do JdN e li o artigo "Guerra na Ucrânia trava globalização a fundo"... e só uma vez mencionam a China e indirectamente. Escrever sobre globalização e não falar na China!!! Escrever sobre globalização e reduzi-la a compra de petróleo e matérias-primas à Rússia!!!

Eu tento olhar para a big-picture. Por exemplo, na figura que se segue todos os actores estão no país, excepto os consumidores que podem estar cá ou no estrangeiro:

Qual é, qual deve ser o papel de uma associação empresarial nesta teia de interesses conflituantes?

Com China, com a globalização como a conhecemos nos últimos 30 anos, os fabricantes nacionais ou sobem na escala de valor, ou estão condenados a fecharem portas. Não pela falta de competitividade, mas pelo aperto dos salários promovido pelo governo de turno. As marcas intermediárias entre consumidores mundiais e fabricantes nacionais têm o poder de optar por fabricantes estrangeiros.

Sem China, sem a globalização como a conhecemos nos últimos 30 anos, os fabricantes nacionais não precisam de subir na escala de valor, precisam apenas de serem capazes de aumentar os preços para suportar o aumento de custos. As marcas intermediárias entre consumidores mundiais e fabricantes nacionais perdem poder, a procura passa a ser maior do que a oferta de capacidade produtiva, pelo menos no curto-médio prazo.

Qual é, qual deve ser o papel de uma associação empresarial nesta teia de interesses conflituantes?

Em Novembro último publiquei Mea culpa (parte II) onde escrevi:

"Um empresário, um patrão, não tem como responsabilidade mudar o mundo, tem como responsabilidade liderar a sua empresa. Por outro lado, o desafio de a manter à tona é tão grande que raramente encontra tempo para pensar no depois de amanhã, simplesmente reage, o quotidiano é que assume o comando. É cada vez mais difícil encontrar pessoas para trabalhar a receber os salários que pode pagar? Em vez da subida na escala de valor, temos a race to the bottom: Arranjar quem o faça no Brasil, ou na Moldávia ... ou uma prestação de serviços à la Odemira.

Por isso, os portugueses emigram …"

Quando escrevi Moldávia, sabia de uma associação empresarial estar a trabalhar para transferir parte da produção para a Moldávia.

Pergunta sincera, pergunta honesta: Qual é, qual deve ser o papel de uma associação empresarial nesta teia de interesses conflituantes? Apoiar a race to the bottom, ou trabalhar para que se suba na escala de valor, mesmo sabendo que a maioria das empresas no médio prazo não sobreviverá?

Em Novembro o cenário era um.

E em Março de 2022?

A 16 de Março último o Jornal de Notícias publicou o artigo "Calçado perdeu 158 empresas e 4 mil empregos" onde se pode ler:

"Falta de resposta em Portugal está a levar à subcontratação em países como India e Marrocos.

...

A importação de gáspeas (a parte superior do calçado, antes de lhe ser aplicada a respetiva sola) ou até de produto acabado de outros países, nomeadamente da India e, mais recentemente, de Marrocos, tem sido uma das soluções adotadas. E a APICCAPS vai estudar mercados alternativos de forma séria e aprofundada.

"É algo que terá de ser pensado em termos de futuro. Não digo que esta é a estratégia do setor, porque essa será sempre a de centrar a produção em Portugal, que é onde está o valor competitivo, mas não podemos fechar a porta a nenhum tipo de negócio neste momento", frisa João Maia, em declarações a JN/Dinheiro à Vivo, à margem de mais uma edição da Micam, a maior feira de calçado do Mundo, que terminou ontem em Milão."

Como consultor trabalho para ajudar uma empresa a atingir os seus objectivos.

Pergunta sincera, pergunta honesta: Qual é, qual deve ser o papel de uma associação empresarial nesta teia de interesses conflituantes? E em função dos papéis que assume, qual deve ser o apoio dado por um governo a essa associação?

Quando em "Calçado precisa de dois a três mil trabalhadores" no Jornal de Notícias de 13 de Março último leio as palavras de Luis Onofre, presidente da APICCAPS:

"Os preços do calçado "vão inevitavelmente ter que aumentar", embora não tenha estimativas dessa subida, por depender de cada artigo. O problema é convencer os clientes. "Os aumentos, sobretudo dos custos energéticos, têm sido brutais e influenciam muito o preço final do sapato, mas os clientes não aceitam aumentos. Não conseguem, ainda, perceber a real dimensão da situação"

Fico a pensar ...  Qual é, qual deve ser o papel de uma associação empresarial nesta teia de interesses conflituantes?

"what we are looking for are neither heroes, nor processes"

"What About Processes?

The key to all of this debate for the present day is the inability of some innovating organizations to ever get sufficiently close to their customers to really know what they want. That’s when heroes are needed, especially in organizations that are seen as being inflexible, often when involved in the production of high-volume, standardized offerings, or what Eric von Hipple refers to as “manufacturer-dominated” firms. This takes us directly back to Steve Blank’s observation that organizations whose processes are not designed for non-standard work, require individuals to move these organizations into market responses that they would otherwise not consider. Innovation heroics are, indeed, a symptom of a lack of preparedness for surprise, and as surprise becomes more frequent, as the unfamiliar becomes more present, and as time to market continues to shorten, something needs to be added to organizational culture to reduce a reliance upon what would otherwise require an inexhaustible supply of candidate heroes. Let’s be clear, however, that what we are looking for are neither heroes, nor processes; heroes are an admission of process failure, and most processes are not sufficiently flexible for whatever the future is likely to bring.

...

What is needed is a shared understanding of principles that authorize a natural way for the organization to allow unscheduled innovation to happen, and a trust in the employees to make the right choices. This is not heroic, and processes are not involved, either. Instead, it is a combination of beliefs, understanding and staff buy-ins so that the organization is prepared to take surprises in stride."

Trechos retirados de "A New Look For Innovation: Less Heroes, Fewer Processes" 

Quem feio ama, bonito lhe parece.

 

"A NGPT, com sede em Felgueiras, fez uma parceria alicerçada na certeza de que "não ter fábrica é uma vantagem, até quando falta mão de obra como no momento atual. Como subcontratamos, só temos de estar atentos e mudar rapidamente de fornecedor", diz."

Quem feio ama, bonito lhe parece.

Acredito que nos próximos anos a procura pela produção na Europa vai crescer ainda mais, cada vez mais procura de capacidade de produção para marcas, cada vez mais poder para os fabricantes.

Que subcontratados aceitam trabalhar para um parceiro que os trata como dispensáveis? Estas coisas, mesmo que se pensem não devem ser ditas.

Esta prática pode ser vantajosa ou não. Tudo depende da orientação estratégica da marca, e do preço que estiver disposta a pagar num mercado em que a oferta tem mais força.

Trecho retirado de "Após a corrida ao papel higiénico, há uma lição que o negócio dos sapatos pode tirar"

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte II)

Foco, foco, foco... 

"How Hidden Champions Define Their Markets

There are numerous ways to define a market or a business. The oldest version is based on the product: "We operate in the market for dishwashers." This product-oriented definition was heavily criticized by Theodore Levitt in the groundbreaking article Marketing Myopia in 1960. Levitt's criticism of the American railroad companies has become famous. According to Levitt, their definition of their market as "railroads" and not *passenger transport" meant that they overlooked the emerging competition from airlines.

...

The market definition demanded by Levitt is based on customer needs or application.[Moi ici: Recordo logo Think “outcome before output”] "We make clean dishes our business" would be a needs-oriented definition for a dishwasher manufacturer. In addition, markets can be determined by reference to customer or target groups. Staying with our example, this would be: "We supply hotels and restaurants with dishwashing systems.' For example, the CEO of Brother, Seichi Hirata, made the following precise market definition according to target group, "Our main target group is the segment of small offices, home offices and small and midsize companies. We know this business very well and focus on it.

"Our competitors cover all segments. We don't." [Moi ici: É preciso ter muita coragem para não seguir atrás dos concorrentes] Brother achieved market leadership with its office machines in this segment as a result of the narrow market definition.

...

With their market definitions the hidden champions of the twenty-first century generally show a very modern understanding of the market. Customer needs and target groups clearly top the list. 

...

The hidden champions have grown beyond the narrow boundaries of their regions of origin. They view the world as their market, not their country or region. [Moi ici: Recordar "Nichos, co-criação e intimidade à escala" com a lição alemão e o fim da geografia]

...

If we asked a hidden champion selected at random to state the key to its success, the most likely answer would be "We specialize in ...""

"Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon