Beware of the invisible water in the tank

Seth Godin in a recent blog post, “The dominant culture”, wrote:

 “One of the great cartoons involves two goldfish in a tank talking to one another. One responds in surprise, “wait, there’s water?””

This remind me of a growing concern in my analysis of the business world. Too often we analyze information about certain cases, about certain solutions, about certain methodologies and approaches, without being aware of the assumptions on which they are based. Why? Because no one cared about the water in the tank. 

 

For example, for years and years I have heard comments and stories, I have read wonders about the Toyota Production System.

 

Is it spectacular? Yes!

 

However, it was only in 2017 that I read in an article something that nobody ever says, either because they are unaware or because it is the water in the tank ... - Toyota "freezes" production 8 weeks in advance.

 

How many companies can afford to do this? And how many companies cannot do it, but try in good faith to implement the Toyota Production System in their production?

 

Recently also, the Wall Street Journal published an interesting article, “The Surprising Way Companies Can Shore Up Their Financial Strength”:

“The Drucker Institute’s statistical model serves as the basis for the Management Top 250, an annual ranking produced in partnership with The Wall Street Journal.

…

In total, we examined 820 large, publicly traded companies last year through the lens of 34 indicators across five categories: customer satisfaction, employee engagement and development, innovation, social responsibility and financial strength.

To construct our ranking, corporations are compared in each of the five areas, as well as in their overall effectiveness, through standardized scores with a range of 0 to 100 and a mean of 50.

…

Our model reflects shareholder returns, along with a variety of metrics that capture how effectively a firm has deployed its capital, among other things.

.

For companies in the health-care sector, we found over the course of the seven-year period a significant statistical relationship between financial strength and one other category: employee engagement and development. To be precise, a five-point gain in the latter produced a 0.79-point increase in the former.

.

That may not look like a big deal on its face. But it would have been enough to vault a company from the 50th percentile in financial strength to the 56th in last year’s rankings—up 38 spots on the list.

…

Meanwhile, it is a whole other story for companies in the industrial sector, which includes the airlines. There, it is social responsibility that should command the most attention. A five-point rise in that category translated into a 0.49-point upturn in financial strength.

…

For example, a health-care company wanting to lift its customer-satisfaction score can expect to reap an extra 0.49 points in that category for every five-point advance in employee engagement and development. But an industrial company hoping to achieve a similar bump in customer satisfaction should shoot for a five-point improvement in another area: innovation.”

While reading the article I thought about the water in the tank. Do these recommendations, do these relationships apply equally to all companies in the same economic sector?

I don't think so.

 

Some days ago, someone made the following comment to me:

 

“KPIs for production are simple: efficiency, low losses.”

 

When I heard that the picture of Bruce Jenner came to my mind.

Beware of the invisible water in the tank.

O ecossistema à volta de uma organização

"Implementing a human-centered strategy must begin by contemplating in some detail which groups are important to us, assessing their role in driving the outcomes we seek, and understanding what needs to happen to support our remarkable journey. With this knowledge we can identify and prioritize the actions we need to implement.

There are many ways to group the constituencies and stakeholders we must consider. Here’s my preferred way to organize them.

1. Consumers: Seems simple enough, but we must be sure to include current customers, lapsed customers, and prospects, i.e., all the important individuals we seek to acquire, grow, retain, and spread our story.

2. Tribes: I’m using this term, at least broadly, in the way that Seth Godin did in his 2008 book of the same name: “a tribe is a group of people connected to one another, connected to a leader, and connected to an idea.” The interplay among members of our target consumers’ tribes is what helps us gain insight into their collective needs. Importantly, tribes are central to spreading our brand’s story.

3. Networks: The principal difference between a network and a tribe is that while many of the dynamics may be similar, there is less organization around a leader and a shared idea. Your book club is probably a tribe. Your group of Facebook friends or Instagram followers is a network.

4. Employees: It’s not a new idea to include an organization’s employees (or “associates” or “team members” as many retailers call them) explicitly in our strategy. In human-centered retail there are two emphasized factors. One is to include and connect them to the broader view. The other is to be sure to dial in more of the emotional considerations.

5. Investors: Without capital, few enterprises can achieve their goals, so we may find ourselves borrowing money and/or seeking equity funds.

...

6. Collaborators: This used to be more straightforward. Every organization has different partners in their success: product vendors, marketing agencies, delivery companies, and so on. They are all included in this group.

...

7. Our Community: Getting involved in city-wide or neighborhood activities has often been an arrow in the “quiver of local, independent retailers, but being mindful of both the critical inputs and our impact on the places we live is moving to the forefront.

...

8. The Planet: Although one would hope that corporations and governing bodies alike would pay more attention to this, for the most part it isn’t happening."

Trechos retirados do capítulo 13 "Essential #2: Human-Centered" de Remarkable Retail.

"Vamos ficar todos mesmo bem"

"No Boletim Económico divulgado ontem, o Banco de Portugal reviu em baixa a sua estimativa de recessão para este ano, esperando agora uma contração económica de 9,5% este ano – que pode chegar aos 13,1% num cenário mais adverso. Em março, quando a pandemia tinha chegado a Portugal, os técnicos da instituição ainda liderada por Carlos Costa esperavam uma queda de 5,7% no PIB.

O BdP, que era a instituição mais otimista, torna-se agora na mais pessimista, aproximando-se de outras instituições que recentemente apresentaram as suas projeções e que fazem crer que quanto mais recente é a estimativa para a economia portuguesa, maior a probabilidade de ser mais negativa."

O PIB entre 2009 e 2013 terá caído um acumulado de cerca de 6%... o que será cair 11% num único ano?

Sinto que estamos algures durante a conversa deste anúncio:

Trecho retirado do Jornal de Negócios "Banco de Portugal põe em xeque pressupostos do retificativo"

Acerca do futuro

No Financial Times de dia 15 de Junho um artigo de Wolfgang Münchau sobre ... a impressão 3D 

"In the 1960s Roy Amara, a Stanford computer scientist, observed that “we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run”.

...

Supply chain managers in industrial companies will be busy right now studying alternative sources that are more local. They may trade efficiency for robustness. They may be looking at automation. Back in February, they may not have seen the need to fix what did not seem broken. But now it is.

.

A recent 3D printing industry survey found that companies are looking at the technology differently, with more of them now considering using it for end production rather than just prototypes.

.

A German study in 2015 predicted that the economic impact of 3D printing would be to lower barriers to entry, making it easier for companies to serve different markets and cutting prices for consumers. It would constitute what economists call a positive supply shock.

...

More localised production would also cut the cost of transport and contribute to the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

...

There are downsides. Export-led growth has been the business model of developing countries. More localised manufacturing would hurt them. Automation will improve the employment prospects of some but reduce those of others. A mechanical or chemical engineer can perhaps retrain and find niches in other high-tech areas.

...

Like many technological inventions of the past, this one could also give rise to new forms of inequality. Economies with strong high-tech investment such as the US and China would do well. European countries would probably not be at the forefront — to put it mildly — but there may be niches for those with a strong technological focus,"

Recordar "O mundo que conhecemos nos últimos 20 anos vai mudar (parte II)"

 

Trechos retirados de "3d printing can be a real source for optimism"

"recovery from the coronavirus crisis will instead require "discontinuous transformation""

Outro interessante artigo do Financial Times do passado dia 15 de Junho, "When business survival is at stake, it pays to have a discontinuity plan":

"So for many business and industries, recovery from the coronavirus crisis will instead require "discontinuous transformation" — a change not just in the rate but also the direction of travel, and not through mere incremental moves. Such radical reassessment of capabilities, operations and even the business model itself could become a routine necessity. 

...

Finance plays a key role in this type of rethinking and reorientation. Traditional forecasting methods and return on investment (ROI) benchmarks may need re-evaluation. The types of linear progress that finance managers have historically sought will become obsolete at many companies because of the economic disruption caused by coronavirus. 

...

First, transformation can occur without large capital expenditures —indeed, new capital will not help if the approach is wrong to begin with. The trajectory of change is difficult to discern at the start, and becomes clear only as the journey unfolds. 

.

By committing large sums up front, before the steps required are apparent, management creates a risk of significant waste; if backtracking is needed, there will be heavy capital loss as well as delay to factor in. Paradoxically, slower spending speeds up change: to borrow the US Navy Seals' saying: "slow is smooth, and smooth is fast."

...

Third, executives should not underestimate what they can do with savings in times of discontinuous transformation. Big cost reductions can flow from dismantling an existing business in favour of a new model. Liquidity will surely be a big issue for financial managers as they navigate a recovery from the economic impact of coronavirus, so such savings could be a lifeline for many companies. Finally, and on the other side of the ledger, liquidity can also be protected by not prematurely dismantling existing revenue streams that can help fund the transformation. The key is to tap these sources while not allowing them to impede progress by providing a false sense of security. 

...

This is not the only cultural shift that leaders need to assimilate. Traditional hierarchies and routines loosen during discontinuous transformation, with employees becoming empowered to think and act in new ways, and new types of collaboration across functions and teams emerging.

...

While hierarchy serves a valid corporate purpose, that of ensuring accountability, it can also stifle creativity if it is too rigid. As companies emerge into the new economic landscape that coronavirus has given rise to, the capacity for creativity will be more valuable than ever. In an era of discontinuity, "business as usual" is a high-risk proposition." 

As empresas supostamente protegidas pelo lay-off terão alguma motivação para testar estas descontinuidades? Os zombies não são conhecidos por rasgos estratégicos.

As disguised blessings não são oferecidas, são conquistadas, são desenhadas.

nbnbnb

"Coronavirus has changed both the content of finance courses and the way it is delivered

...

Most important, in just two days, Prof Guilhon oversaw a switch to “remote learning” — involving extensive interaction and contact, and going far beyond passive viewing of lessons shifted online because of social distancing restrictions. “Our speakers were connected to students, and we asked faculty to act as coaches,” she says.

.

Now, finance course directors are turning their attention to the coming academic year against a continued backdrop of uncertainty."

Trechos retirados de "Schools adjust to a new way of working"

""

Trechos retirados de "Online Learning Is Thriving"

"we wouldn’t consistently choose efficiency over effectiveness"

"Most efforts at becoming customer-centric are well intentioned. Most people charged with implementing such initiatives are doing the best they can. The underlying reasons that most companies aren’t close to being customer-centric are varied. 

...
Yet all too often the reason comes down to this: we are only pretending to care. Because if we really cared, we wouldn’t consistently choose efficiency over effectiveness.
...
Many problems rest in basic survey design and structure. We may be measuring our performance against what we have predetermined are important purchasing variables that may have once been valid but no longer are. We may be talking only to current customers, when more relevant insights could come from listening to lapsed customers and/or prospects.
...
once we understand that people buy the story before they buy the product, we have to expand our view of what goes into a purchase decision. It’s rarely all about the product or customers simply trading off price against functional features and benefits.
...
The second challenge of historical approaches is limiting our view of the people (individually and collectively) who need to be considered and enrolled in our efforts to drive remarkable results. Clearly a laser focus on our target consumers is critically important. Yet the journey to remarkable requires a broader system of people (those who work for us, with us, are connected to us), processes, practices, technology, and so on that must be engaged to drive the outcomes we desire."

Aquele "we wouldn’t consistently choose efficiency over effectiveness" fez-me logo recordar disto:

Trechos retirados do capítulo 13 "Essential #2: Human-Centered" de Remarkable Retail.

"a ‘disguised blessing’"

O Financial Times de ontem trazia uma série de artigos muito interessantes. 

Um exemplo é "Why this crisis is a ‘disguised blessing’":

"Mr Seto chooses his words carefully, but since Japan went into lockdown in April, he has evolved a contentious idea: that the pandemic, for all its misery, is a “disguised blessing” — not just for Lixil, but for the parts of corporate Japan that realise they can use this moment to make changes that would otherwise never happen. In the right hands, he says, it will accelerate a long overdue transformation of the way work is measured, and the way that information and ideas are transmitted within Japanese companies." [Moi ici: Com Stephen Covey aprendi que não é o que nos acontece que conta, mas o que fazemos com o que nos acontece. Assim, para qualquer evento devemos sempre partir do princípio que pode ser uma oportunidade. Há apenas que procurar o melhor ângulo. Não podemos evitar, não podemos fugir do evento: o que é que podemos fazer para o tornar numa fonte de oportunidades?]

Este trecho também é interessante e foi abordado no almoço de ontem com o meu parceiro das conversas oxigenadoras:

"“We management tend to be very spoiled,” he says. “I used to get information from US general managers that was pretty much sugared and filtered all the time. Sometimes, what I want to know is unfiltered information.”"

Fugirás da competição pelo preço

"Em termos operacionais, a empresa faz o mesmo?

.

O tipo de produtos, sim. A forma como a vemos no futuro e definimos a estratégia é diferente. Não queremos ser mais um fabricante de quinadoras e de guilhotinas, mas reconhecidos internacionalmente pela competitividade, fiabilidade e diferenciação das soluções de engenharia para o “metal forming”. Não queremos, como a concorrência turca, vender produto. Em vez de querer a máquina X ou Y, o cliente diz-nos o problema ou a necessidade e identificamos a melhor solução, que poderá ser algo customizado e incluir robótica. [Moi ici: Algo na óptica de "Think “outcome before output”"]

.

Não o fazia antes da compra?

.

Havia desenvolvimento de novos produtos, mas a SC e eu decidimos apostar numa estratégia, quer de fabrico quer comercial, orientada para o desenvolvimento de soluções. Não só na parte de engenharia, mas também nas vendas e no marketing. Essa tem sido a maior aposta: mudar a forma como vendemos e como os clientes nos veem.

.

Não o fazia antes da compra?

.

Havia desenvolvimento de novos produtos, mas a SC e eu decidimos apostar numa estratégia, quer de fabrico quer comercial, orientada para o desenvolvimento de soluções. Não só na parte de engenharia, mas também nas vendas e no marketing. Essa tem sido a maior aposta: mudar a forma como vendemos e como os clientes nos veem."

Confesso que me estão a surpreender. A mentalidade Sonae dá-se mal quando o negócio não é a competição pelo preço.

Trechos retirados de “Não queremos ser mais um fabricante de máquinas”, publicado no Jornal de Negócios de ontem.

The Walking Dead e o activismo político

Governos, empresas grandes e "crony capitalism" 

"There’s an important risk in what I call the “bailout of everything,” or the conscious decision from governments and central banks to provide any needed support to all sectors and companies with access to debt.

.

Most of these stimulus packages and liquidity measures are aimed at supporting current government spending and providing liquidity to companies with assets, access to debt, and in traditional sectors. It’s not a surprise, then, that at the same time as we see the largest fiscal and monetary support plan since World War II, we are already witnessing two dangerous collateral effects: the rise of zombie companies and the collapse of small businesses and start-ups.

...

Additionally, according to Deutsche Bank and the Bank of International Settlements, the number of zombie companies in the eurozone and the United States, large companies that cannot cover their interest expense costs with operating profits, has rocketed to new all-time highs.

...

“Europe’s productivity problem is partly due to the rise of zombie firms that crowd out growth opportunities for others.” This problem is only increasing in the current crisis.

.

The rise in bond defaults is a consequence of previous high leverage in a weakening operating income environment. This should not be a concern if creative destruction works to improve the economy, as inefficient companies are taken over by efficient ones and new investors restructure challenged businesses to make them competitive. The big problem is that massive liquidity and low rates are perpetuating overcapacity and keeping an extraordinary amount of zombie firms alive.

...

Maintaining and increasing zombie firms destroys any positive effect from restructuring and innovation. Additionally, to maintain cash flows and stay alive, companies are cutting investment in innovation, technology, and research. Meanwhile, small businesses that do not have access to debt or own hard assets are dissolving every day.

.

In most developed economies, where 80 percent of employment comes from small businesses, the “bailout of everything” is becoming a massive transfer of wealth from the new economy to the old economy, preventing a stronger and more productive recovery.

...

The “Bailout of Everything” (as long as it’s large) creates significant risks. Low productivity and indebted sectors survive, creating a perverse incentive that benefits malinvestment and poor capital allocation. Additionally, as these sectors already had overcapacity and structural problems, their bailout does not lead to higher job creation or stronger investment. Furthermore, high-productivity sectors will likely suffer the tax burden that rises after these governments’ rescue plans, diminishing the employment potential and the likelihood of rising real wages as productivity growth stalls."

Trechos retirados de "The Risk of the ‘Bailout of Everything’"

Porque falham as transformações

"The Four Most Common Failure Modes for Transformative Innovations in Large Organizations

.

Too late.  Leaders recognize the need for new growth but don’t commit to it until their competitors have already seized the opportunity.

Too few resources.  Leaders appropriately organize and adopt long-term growth initiatives but fail to allocate sufficient dollars, the right people, and enough of their own mindshare to sustain them.

Impatience for growth.  Many transformative ventures are slow to bloom. Perhaps an early business experiment fails or has slower than expected results. Instead of redesigning the experiment to learn more, senior leadership pulls the plug. Or maybe it experiences some early-stage success and senior leadership demands that it be scaled up before all of its premises have been thoroughly tested, causing the venture to make a fatal stumble.

Competition from the core.  A challenge with growth in the core may cause resources to be diverted away from a promising new venture. Or, in a misguided attempt to restore organizational efficiencies, leadership might “cram” a successful new venture back into the core prematurely, causing it to lose the unique attributes that were responsible for its success."

Eu acrescentaria um quinto factor: a falta de foco, a falta de instinto de matador. Até se indentifica a necessidade de mudança, mas não se muda, mas não se tem fogo no rabo.

Trecho retirado de “Lead from the Future” de Josh Suskewicz.

"The biggest challenge for many business leaders is to see their role as orchestrating, not commanding"

"The business leaders who are best at managing in uncertain worlds also rely on systems thinking that allows them to sort out complex problems, the report concluded. They prioritize diverse inputs, teamwork, and partnerships. These leaders assemble the best team they can, and trust that team to find the information the organization needs to get through a crisis.

.

“These CEOs understand they don’t need to know it all themselves,” 

...

expects the U.S. economy to contract by 11 percent by the end of the year. Significantly, it estimated that 60 percent of that contraction will be the direct consequence of uncertainty: that is, a condition in which important information is unknowable.

.

Because nobody knows what is next, no CEO reasonably can be taken to task for not knowing everything. That provides an opening for leaders who have deployed top-down, command-and-control leadership styles to switch to a mind-set that helps them and their teams better navigate uncertain conditions.

.

Leaders don’t have to like dealing with uncertainty in order to master it. “You can be uncomfortable with uncertainty. We don’t grow if we don’t feel uncomfortable,”

...

The biggest challenge for many business leaders, in Leavitt’s view, is to see their role as orchestrating, not commanding. That means making sure your employees are in touch with their own desires and potential just as much as your business is aligned with its sense of purpose.

.

The point isn’t for CEOs to be the hero, Leavitt said, but for them be able to say, once they are past the crisis: “Look at how the team was built up during this time! Look at what they did! Look how they stepped up!”

.

That behavior makes all the difference between whether employees respond to uncertainty by becoming more creative and proactive, or overstressed and paralyzed. The ability to cope with uncertainty and keep pursuing your mission will be the difference between success and failure."

Trechos retirados de "Why managing uncertainty is a key leadership skill"

"You aren’t going to out-Amazon Amazon"

Em vez de retalho físico pensemos em imprensa, pensemos em empresas stuck-in-the-middle

"As scarcity disappears across so many areas, as the pace of change accelerates, and as newly empowered customers flex their muscles, the definition of boring has changed, in many cases radically. The bar for good enough has been raised. Not only do customers today know when they could do far better, it’s increasingly easy for them to demand what they want. And they can find many new and innovative brands willing and ready to respond. Today, even very good often doesn’t make the sale.

...

Yet even if you have a product or service that is unique, highly customer relevant, and not the least bit boring, getting noticed and commanding attention is increasingly difficult.

In this age of digital disruption we are drowning in a tsunami of information and deluged by all manner of distractions. The exploding world of choice that the internet and smartphones offer has delivered great benefits, but it has also created a tremendous amount of clutter.

...

What it takes to get noticed, to command attention, to be remarkable enough that whatever product, service, or idea we are selling gets adopted and spread, requires us to boost today’s signal many times more than would have worked in the recent past. Anything else risks not getting heard or seen, much less acted on, in our ever-noisier world.

...

what so many get wrong is believing that merely being better gets the job done. Better is not always the same as good. Far too often what is touted as innovation is providing a slightly better version of mediocre. Slowing the rate of descent is, in some sense, progress, but without a major change in direction, eventually we still crash.

...

You aren’t going to out-Amazon Amazon. Maybe Walmart, Target, or a very short list of other well-resourced retailers can in certain instances.

...

Ask yourself: how can retailers with higher costs than Amazon possibly win a price war? How is offering free shipping or BOPIS going to counter Amazon’s dominance in product assortment and delivery convenience? Any strategy like that is based on a hope that Amazon will follow the same profit and investment calculations that “normal” retailers do. How do you know, even if some of these efforts manage to gain some traction, that Amazon won’t respond even more aggressively or find some other way to make your life miserable?

...

Matching Amazon on prices and/or delivery times may seem like a good move, until you actually have to bear the cost of doing it. You are starting a race to the bottom that you can’t possibly win.

So what can be done? For most retailers, particularly those that lack the resources and capabilities that the mega-brands have, the only decision is to double down on (or lean into) those improvements that make your brand more customer relevant, more unique and sustainable over the long term.

...

For retailers that still garner most of their sales from their physical stores, that means appreciating and nurturing the unique advantages of brick-and-mortar locations: personal service, compelling visual merchandising, unique products, well-curated assortments, social experiences, instant gratification, and the like. You can complement that in-store experience with a well-harmonized e-commerce offering. Mostly you can embrace the choice to be remarkable on retail elements that Amazon can’t match.”

Trechos retirados do capítulo 10 “An Especially Bad Time to Be Boring” do livro “Remarkable Retail”

"that model died this year"

México = Marrocos, Turquia, Roménia e Bulgária.

"“You have a couple of big names already moving to Mexico, all auto parts,” says Alfred Nader, president of OFX North American in San Francisco. “Some of them are leaving China and going to Mexico because of the new NAFTA. ... Most people don’t really think of this, but Mexico is cheap and on a labor perspective it is as cheap or cheaper than China,” says Nader.

...

“Using China as a hub...that model died this year, I think,” says Vladimir Signorelli, head of Bretton Woods Research, a macro investment research firm.

...

“Our survey shows that a large majority of executives are moving or have moved portions of their operations from another country to Mexico,” says Christopher Swift, Foley partner and litigator in the firm’s Government Enforcement Defense & Investigations Practice.

For those considering moving operations, 80% said they will do so within the next two years. They are “doubling down on Mexico”, according to Foley’s report."

Na pressa, na turbulência pós-covid, algumas encomendas passarão para Portugal, mas poucas e por pouco tempo. 

Cada vez mais somos um "boring country" como nos destacamos? Pelo topo inferior dos custos? Não! Pelo topo superior do contexto? Não!

Como nos poderíamos tornar "remarkable"?

Em banho-maria continuaremos.

 

Trechos retirados de "Most Small Businesses Say They’re Looking To Leave China" 

O futuro do país em banho-maria

Ontem passei as mãos pelas primeiras páginas de um livro, "Pirates in the Navy". Título que joga com as palavras da frase:

"Why join the navy when you can be a pirate!"

E ao ler a introdução aconteceu-me o estranho caso de ler e constantemente pensar em Portugal.

Por navy entenda-se os incumbentes instalados, as empresas grandes, o sistema político.

Por pirates entenda-se as startups, muito mais ágeis e sem tradição a tolher os movimentos.

Agora, ao escrever estas linhas, recordo que o livro "Why Nations Fail" começa com o museu Veneza, uma cidade dominada pela navy que escolheu o imobilismo só para proteger os interesses dos seus incumbentes.

"Startups can do anything.

Companies can only do what’s legal. [Moi ici: Mas que comparação é esta entre a navy e Portugal? Um país que em cerca de 45 anos já vai a caminho da 4ª injecção de capital externo para se salvar(?), deve ter algo de pôdre embutido nos caboucos da sua organização. Um país em que se pensa que só se pode fazer o que é permitido na lei é um país doente e a precisar de piratas]

. 

Having no business model and no market reputation to defend makes startups quite dangerous as competitors. If you combine this with the fact that startups are now better funded and their incentives are aligned with their investors’ goals, large companies are competing with a formidable foe.

.

Meanwhile, inside most large companies there are still leaders who question the need to innovate.  [Moi ici: Dentro dos principais partidos, carregados de socialistas de direita ou de esquerda, poucos, muito poucos são os que percebem que algo tem de mudar nesta Dinamarca. Tenho idade suficioente para me lembrar do tempo em que Cavaco defendeu e impôs, contra tudo e contra todo o establishment, a abertura da economia à iniciativa privada com as privatizações. Havemos de chegar a um novo momento do mesmo tipo, não com os actuais políticos, demasiado presos a um modelo que funcionava quando se podia desvalorizar a moeda e enganar os papalvos. Já escrevi aqui no tempo da troika, a ideia de Louçã/Ferreira do Amaral de desvalorizar moeda e de Ferraz da Costa de baixar salários é na prática a mesma. Só que ainda não chegamos lá. Ainda estamos reféns da geração dos distribuidores de riqueza a partir de thin air] To be fair, there is a discernible shift in leadership attitudes towards innovation taking place in most organisations. However, in some large companies there is still an intractable core of leaders who actively resist innovation projects as a waste of time and resources.

It is a myth that innovation is sexy. In a lot of companies, it is career suicide. So, while startups are focused on resisting enemies and competitors that are outside their company, innovators within large companies have to contend with enemies and competitors inside their own companies as well. [Moi ici: Tipicamente as pessoas mais empreendedoras acabam por sair destas organizações incumbentes. Preferem arriscar e respirar melhor do que se subjugar à promessa "Ajoelha-te perante mim e dar-te-ei todo o poder ...". E o que é a emigração portuguesa senão uma decisão de não pactuar com o status-quo?]

Corporate innovation is a paradox. Intrapreneurs – employees who work on entrepreneurial ideas inside an established company – have to innovate for the future, inside a machine designed to run the current business. It is the management of the current business that tends to get in the way of innovation. The bureaucracy and incentives of the organisation are all geared towards improving and exploiting the currently successful products and business models.

...

At the same time, these large corporations have entrepreneurial employees who are constantly trying to innovate. As far as I am concerned, these people are crazy. They wake up every morning and go to work to swim against the tide. This is insane! And yet, they exist: [Moi ici: Isto faz-me lembrar uma conversa que tive ontem no Twitter com alguém, sem skin-in-the-game, acerca do salário mínimo... Estes malucos do livro são os empreendedores, os empresário em Portugal. Um país que não os respeita, que pensa o pior deles, mas que depende deles. Podem ter o 9º ano de escolaridade mas nunca mandarão o país para a bancarrota. Podem não gerar muito valor acrescentado, mas fazem a sua parte o melhor que podem e só esperam, como numa corrida de estafetas, que apareça quem faça melhor do que eles. Só que quem protesta ou é funcionário, ou tem medo de arriscar...] passionate employees who are committed to helping their company become more innovative. They can see the future coming and they are committed to ensuring that their company survives in that future."

O futuro do país estará em banho-maria até que apareça alguém capaz de libertar o país para um modelo que não esteja constantemente a depender de esmolas externas e de impostagem crescente.

 

"The new normal will be different"

"It’s important to understand that the fashion industry is full of small brands and many will not survive, especially in countries where the market is not big enough. In Southern Europe, digital is not as big as it is elsewhere. The idea of going back to normal there will be different, and there will be fewer brands.

...

Will Chinese tourists come to Paris in the next six, ten, or twelve months? I doubt it. The new normal will be different.

...

Use this opportunity to reimagine what the fashion life cycle should look like in terms of speed, overproduction, and consumption to change things for the better."

Trechos retirados de "A perfect storm for fashion marketplaces"

"a company has to change its corporate mindset"

Enquanto lia o capítulo 9 “Defenders of the Status Quo” do livro “Remarkable Retail” só pensava em Portugal e na sua classe política:

"There is a simple psychology model often referred to as the “3 As,” which stands for awareness, acceptance, and action. This way of understanding the steps a person must go through to make lasting change can guide us to what needs to happen collectively when a retailer embarks on the journey from good enough to remarkable. Before it can follow individual steps, a company has to change its corporate mindset—and that can be the most difficult obstacle of all.

...

We may not like gravity. We may find it rather inconvenient at times. We might even think gravity is an outdated concept. It doesn’t matter. Gravity doesn’t care. Gravity always wins.

...

The sad irony is that while many a retail manager has been sacked for failing to meet a quarterly or annual sales or profit plan, plenty of leaders stay in power doing the same old things over and over again, treading water while a new tranche of customer and shareholder value is created by industry insurgents who either steal share from the defenders of the status quo or seize new opportunities that were there for the taking simply by redefining the way existing or emerging customer outcomes could be addressed.

...

his complete disregard for reality is obvious and pathetic.

...

It’s been said that hope is not a strategy. But this is what passes for an innovation program at many companies. Even if a company is not entrenched in defending the status quo, many are living a fantasy, spinning what amounts to a fairy tale of a growth strategy."

Excerto de: Steve Dennis. “Remarkable Retail”. Apple Books. 

Não se trata de magia, está escrito no ADN dos políticos

Não se trata de magia, está escrito no ADN dos políticos socialistas da direita à esquerda. Gente mais preocupada com a distribuição do que com a criação de riqueza.

Em Outubro de 2015 publiquei este postal "Curiosidade do dia" e lancei este logotipo a prever a quarta vindo FMI:

Agora, "Em risco de bancarrota e ninguém diz nada?" 

"As semelhanças de 2020 com 2009 são arrepiantes. A uma brutal crise económica à vista, o governo responde com um grande programa de investimento público, mais uma vez nas escolas, em computadores para todos e em obras de regime com muitas rotundas e variantes. A Parque Escolar foi a festa que se viu. Agora, não há concursos até 750 mil euros e as prioridades não são discutidas, ao contrário do prometido. Uma nova La Seda assoma no horizonte, desta vez disfarçada de fábrica de hidrogénio em Sines, para passar mais subsídios a favor dos lobies das fotovoltaicas.

.

Entretanto, continua prometido um aumento nominal de 1 por cento nos salários dos funcionários públicos que, como se sabe, a ser aplicado implica um aumento de 2 a 3 por cento na massa salarial a cargo do Estado, por causa das horas extraordinárias e outros pagamentos indexados ao vencimento base"

Aguardemos os desenvolvimentos e as suas consequências

Um interessante artigo sobre a Inditex e o seu desempenho durante a quarentena em "Zara Owner Built a Post-Covid Retailer Before Coronavirus" em linha com o que ouvi ontem à noite num telejornal qualquer.

Uma informação que não consta deste artigo e que ouvi no tal telejornal foi sobre a intenção da empresa em futuramente fechar um certo número de lojas. Recordei de imediato o que tinha lido ontem, na minha caminhada matinal, no capítulo 8 "Optimizing to Extinction" do livro “Remarkable Retail”.

O capítulo é sobretudo sobre as empresas de retalho que estão mal, e esperam resolver o seu problema de uma má proposta de valor, ou uma má execução, fechando de uma penada uma série de lojas para cortar nos custos.

"For the better part of a decade, Wall Street has been pushing under-performing retailers to cut expenses and close stores.

...

[Moi ici: O trecho que se segue é notável!!!] Some analysts have even gone to great lengths to calculate the number of stores that a given retailer would need to close to return to an acceptable level of store productivity, making the faulty assumption that reducing the denominator has zero impact on the numerator. [Moi ici: Ficamos a pensar naqueles analistas que acham que realmente os humanos têm todos uma mama e um testículo]

...

[Moi ici: O autor compreende e defende que marcas que sobre-expandiram o número de lojas terão de encerrar algumas, mas] More useful for our purposes is how significant store closings impact the long-term viability of a brand. Unless a retailer significantly over expanded, closing large numbers of stores will make it materially less customer relevant. The company is effectively abandoning a trade area and “firing” the customers that live or work there. Unless a convenient alternative location is nearby, this business is almost always lost to local competition. Some retailers have counted on their website to pick up the volume they are losing by closing stores. This strategy rarely pans out. First, the reason the customers shopped in the store is, presumably, they like shopping in stores better than online. Unless the products being sold are truly unique, the shopper can usually find plenty of brick-and-mortar stores offering acceptable substitutes nearby.

...

stores play an important role in marketing by creating and reinforcing top-of-mind awareness, even for customers who rarely set foot in the store. Brick-and-mortar locations tend to play a disproportionate role in cost-effective customer acquisition. Pulling stores out of a market is often akin to withdrawing significant advertising dollars. Overall brand impact is reduced, particularly compared to direct competitors that have greater"

Só porque as vendas homólogas online cresceram 90% em Abril passado, a Inditex pensa fechar uma série de lojas. Aguardemos os desenvolvimentos e as suas consequências.

"gross generalities about macro trends and underlying economics"

Há muitos anos que escrevo sobre a importância de trabalhar para clientes-alvo e não para a média do mercado.

Recordo o uso do termo: miudagem.

Por isso foi engraçado encontrar no capítulo 6 “The Future Will Not Be Evenly Distributed” do livro “Remarkable Retail” este trecho:

"Once the dust settles, we can tote up the winners and losers on the corporate side, but it will be clear that consumers throughout most of the world will have realized more choice, lower prices, and improved convenience that we could scarcely imagine even five years ago. It’s almost like a welfare program for consumers, rich or poor. On average, it’s all good.
But if you find much actionable data in the fact that the average person living today has one breast and one testicle, then continue your focus on industry market-share averages, broad conclusions about “the customer,” and gross generalities about macro trends and underlying economics."

Cautela e caldos de galinha...

Vamos supor que não concorda com as ideias de Daniel Lacalle em "El Banco Central Europeo no elimina el riesgo, lo disfraza". No entanto, experimente fazer uma experiência mental. E se Daniel Lacalle tem razão? Como é que a sua empresa se deveria estar a preparar para ser resiliente quando rebentar a grande tempestade?

Para reflexão

O capítulo 6 “The Future Will Not Be Evenly Distributed” do livro “Remarkable Retail” tem um trecho que faz sorrir e descobre a careca a muitas startups:

"About ten years ago, I attended a conference where the opening speaker was Zappos’s CEO and founder, Tony Hsieh. As was typical for the time, he regaled the audience with tales of hyper-growth, amazing customer service, and an entrepreneurial culture that lived to deliver a wow experience. It was around the time Amazon plunked down over $1 billion to acquire the nascent shoe seller.
As I recall, the speaker who followed Hsieh deviated from his stated topic, starting out by telling us about his plans to open the best hotel in the world along New York City’s Central Park. The hotel would feature a dizzying array of restaurants, all helmed by celebrity chefs, and the largest hotel health club ever. Rooms would be the largest in the city, and all would have spectacular views of the park through floor-to-ceiling windows. Complimentary helicopter or limousine service would be available from all area airports. “But the best part,” he said, pausing for dramatic effect. “The best part is our prices will be 20 percent lower than the Four Seasons, the Mandarin Oriental, The Peninsula, or any other of the very top hotels in Manhattan.”
Having delivered his pitch, he asked, “So, how many of you would be interested in staying in this hotel?”
Most hands in the room shot up immediately.
“How many of you want to invest in this hotel?”
Not a single hand went up.
“That’s fascinating. Because I’m not sure that what I just described is fundamentally different than what you just heard about Zappos or any of these other brands offering out-of-this-world service and ridiculously low prices."

Para reflexão:

“It’s hard to imagine a scenario where a traditional retailer could or would recommend a strategy whereby it lowered its prices, dramatically increased its marketing spending, and added expensive extra features and benefits to deliver “incomparable value” and “ninja-like” customer service, with the promise to the board of directors of “Sure, we will lose hundreds of millions of dollars for the next several years, but trust me, within a decade—fifteen years tops—this is going to be truly phenomenal.” For legacy retailers that seems nuts. For “disruptors” it’s a key feature.”

"has metastasized into a collapse of the demand side"

"But there are clear signs that the collapse of economic activity has set in motion problems that will play out over many months, or maybe many years. If not contained, they could cause human misery on a mass scale and create lasting scars for families.
.
The fabric of the economy has been ripped, with damage done to millions of interconnections — between workers and employers, companies and their suppliers, borrowers and lenders. Both the historical evidence from severe economic crises and the data available today point to enormous delayed effects.
...
The economy is a gigantic machine in which one person’s consumption spending generates someone else’s income. The pandemic began by crushing the economy’s productive capacity — a shock to the supply side of the economy, as many types of business activity were shut down for public health concerns.
.
In normal times, when there is a negative supply shock (say, a year of drought that reduces agricultural crops, or new tariffs that make imports more expensive), the pain can be intense for people in sectors directly affected, yet the economy as a whole adjusts.
.
But this crisis is so large and so sudden that the usual adjustment mechanisms aren’t working very well.
.
The people losing their jobs because of shutdowns cannot easily find new ones, because so much of the economy is shuttered at the same time. The businesses in danger of closing have cut every possible expense
...
The result is that what started as a disruption to the supply side of the economy has metastasized into a collapse of the demand side
...
The demand shock, with lagged effects, is only beginning to hurt major segments of the economy, like sellers of capital goods that are experiencing plunging sales; state and local governments that are seeing tax revenues crater; and landlords who are seeing rent payments dry up."

Trechos retirados de "Don’t Lose the Thread. The Economy Is Experiencing an Epic Collapse of Demand."

Conhecer o cliente do cliente

Muitas empresas não deviam esquecer este aviso, "DO YOU KNOW YOUR CUSTOMER’S CUSTOMERS?"

Pode ser a diferença entre o fracasso e o sucesso.

"What do you know about the kinds of prospects your best customers are trying to attract?
...
The best way to refer qualified new customers is to know as much as you can about their ideal customer profile."

Cada vez mais o caminho passa por trabalhar para além da relação diádica e passar a trabalhar em rede, em ecossistema.

Ser um especialista! Não um generalista.

Ao ler o abstract deste artigo "How small service failures drive customer defection: Introducing the concept of microfailures" fui inundado por uma torrente de recordações:

• tenho de comprar fruta e iogurtes (esta manhã)
• fruta e hortícolas... tenho de ir ao Coviran da Madalena - eu gosto do Coviran da Madalena, o melhor sítio para comprar fruta e hortícolas em Gaia. Fruta saborosa, nozes espectaculares, hortícolas variadas, bonitas e com lagartas e funcionárias simpáticas.

Entretanto no abstract lia:

"Service that falls below customer expectations is framed as a service failure. While many researchers have investigated service failures, they have tended to focus on large service failures. This is likely because large failures are more noticeable by firms and more likely to prompt customer complaints than small failures. However, we argue that smaller service failures can cause as much damage as larger failures, and in some cases even more. We introduce the concept of service microfailures, which we define as instances when a customer’s expectations go unmet in some small way. While minor in isolation, repeated service microfailures that go unnoticed and unrecovered can compound in effect and drive customer defection." 

Engraçado, eu nunca compro carne ou peixe no Coviran e não creio que isso seja uma micro-falha. Há muito que decidi comprar a carne e peixe num outro sítio e não me passa pela cabeça nem mudar, nem culpar o Coviran por isso.

• ó Carlos Cruz temos de ser uma fábrica one-stop-shop! O cliente tem de saber que aqui encontra tudo...

Sim, uma conversa de 2002 ou 2003, com uma das pessoas com quem vivi momentos fundacionais de algumas vertentes da minha vida profissional.

O que digo e escrevo por aqui há longos anos? PMEs? Subir na escala de valor, ser um especialista! Não um generalista.

Façam o by-pass ao país!

"A função estratégica da TAP é uma função estratégica nacional pelo que não se deve ter uma expectativa ou uma perspetiva lucrativa da exploração do negócio da TAP."

Traduzido por: ""Não se deve ter uma perspetiva lucrativa da exploração do negócio da TAP""

E temos de ser nós, contribuintes líquidos, a alimentar estas baboseiras?

Já tive mais confiança na UE como mecanismo para proteger os cidadãos que criam riqueza líquida em Portugal. Parece que estamos condenados a alimentar esta corte que não sabe o que a vida custa a ganhar, que sempre cria mais um imposto, que sempre sobe mais uma taxa, para alimentar a sua sofreguidão de benesses.

Pena que afirmações deste calibre não sejam sujeitas a qualquer escrutínio neste país socialista, da direita à esquerda, envelhecido e com tiques de aristocrata arruinado.

Lembram-se deste blogue aconselhar as PMEs a fazerem o by-pass ao país? Chegou a vez de ser claro e dizer-lo aos mais novos com valor e ambição, se não querem alimentar esta casta, façam o by-pass ao país.

"a laser-like focus on a particular customer segment"

O capítulo 5 - "The Amazon Effect" do livro “Remarkable Retail” de Steve Dennis procura desmistificar o que se diz sobre a Amazon e as mudanças no retalho físico.

"As stores close by the thousands, once-prosperous chains go bankrupt, and scores of malls are bulldozed or massively repurposed, it’s become common to lay the blame on the rise of e-commerce generally and on Amazon in particular.
...
First, as we have seen, some of the most disrupted sectors were in decline well before Amazon was a blip on the radar screen.
...
Second, absolutely nothing prevented any of these retailers that have lost share to online retailers from developing their own similar e-commerce capabilities. In fact, a brand with really great digital capabilities combined with kick-ass brick-and-mortar assets that are well integrated should have important advantages in competing with online-only players. That is one of the main arguments of this book.
...
Many major national brands have yielded little or no share to Amazon and other pure-play competition. That’s not to mention the many local, regional, and specialty stores that have a laser-like focus on a particular customer segment, [Moi ici: Uma condição crítica para o sucesso, a definição dos clientes-alvo] deliver superior customer service, and provide a unique product and/or service mix.

.
The real question for retailers is, do you let the shifts destroy you or do you turn them to your advantage?...[Moi ici: Tudo uma questão de mindset]
This is best shown by examining the difference between “buying” and “shopping. In this way of dissecting the retail world, “buying” is more task-driven or mission-focused. It’s mostly functional. The consumer already has a clear idea of what he or she wants and generally wants it quickly and at a decent price. Buying is more commodity-oriented and search typically plays a key role. Amazon—and e-commerce more broadly—does especially well here.
“Shopping,” on the other hand, is more nuanced and complex, typically involving more exploration and browsing. Generally speaking, browsing on Amazon can be a frustrating experience. When shopping, rather than looking for a specific item, the consumer may be seeking a more complete solution or inspiration and often requires some form of advice. Shopping also tends to be more emotional, with a greater emphasis on the full experience rather than merely checking an item off a to-do list. [Moi ici: Mais uma vez o paralelismo para os media. Com que é que a imprensa se safa, com os buyers ou com os shoppers?] The role of physical stores is dramatically more important in shopping than buying, and as a consequence Amazon and other sites that are dominantly or entirely e-commerce have a disproportionately lower share.

...
“Amazon is powerful, but it is not invincible. Yet it is not very likely that anyone reading this book will contribute to the company’s downfall. Nor are there many parts of Amazon’s core business where its vulnerabilities can be profitably exploited. But there are many aspects of retail where Amazon is not—and will not be—especially successful.
Amazon has incredible momentum, but it is not going to take over the vast majority of retail—at least not in anyone’s sensible planning horizon. In plenty of areas Amazon has a long way to go before it will ever gain meaningful market share.
Our job, therefore, is threefold. The first is to stop chasing Amazon like Ahab obsessively pursuing Moby Dick. [Moi ici: Uma forma interessante de chamar a atenção para a actuação ao estilo do Dick Dastardly] You won’t catch it and even if you do, before long you will likely get crushed or eaten alive. The second is to separate the myths from the reality. The third is to focus your strategy on the areas where Amazon is not, and will not be, an unbeatable competitor anytime soon.
.
“This is not to say that Amazon should not be a potential distribution partner. This doesn’t mean that many things that Amazon does well should not be studied and potentially made part of your organization’s capabilities. But it does mean accepting the fact that we are not going to beat Amazon at its own game."

Free webinar – How to perform an internal audit remotely

An invitation to attend - June, 25th

Webinar designed for internal auditors for ISO 9001, ISO 14001, ISO 27001, and other ISO management standards. The webinar explains what changes must be made, and what risks and obstacles must be considered during the preparation, performance, and reporting of a remote internal audit.

• What can be remotely audited during an internal audit
• What are the differences between remote and on-site audits
• Which tools to use
• What risks can be found and how to overcome them

You can register here.

Questions for leaders

O último livro da Strategyzer de Alex Osterwalder, "The Invincible Company", tem um capítulo muito interessante para estes tempos de corte epistemológico no mundo dos negócios:

"A business model shift describes an organization’s transformation from a declining business model to a more competitive one. For example, the shift from product to service. However, in some contexts, the reverse shift, from service to product, might make just as much sense."

Gosto particularmente destes esquemas incluídos numa página intitulada: Questions for leaders:

 Sublinho os dois sentidos em simultâneo: para uns o mais adequado é o da direita para a esquerda em quanto que para outros é o contrário.

Por exemplo, de Nicho para Mass-Market é o sentido da mais eficiência, é o sentido da consolidação de um mercado. Já o sentido de Mass-Market para Nicho é a tal evolução a caminho de mais valor. Recordar os mapas de Wardley.

A subida na escala de valor (parte IV)

Parte I,  parte II e parte III.

E como se sai disto?

Não tem nada a ver com o coronavirus, tem a ver com uma tendência dos últimos 18 meses e que desenvolvi na série: Quantas empresas (parte XI)

Colapso do meio-termo e a polarização do mercado

O capítulo 4 - "The Collapse of the Middle" do livro “Remarkable Retail” de Steve Dennis foi uma revisão de temas que são tratados neste blogue quase desde o seu início.

"As we take a closer look, however, we start to see what I first explored in a 2011 blog post as the “death of the middle.” Then, a couple of years later, I began referring to this phenomenon as “retail’s great bifurcation” — a title later borrowed for an excellent Deloitte study, which I will discuss below."

Aqui no blogue a primeira vez que se escreveu sobre a morte do meio-termo - o stuck in the middle - e a polarização dos mercados foi em Abril e Maio de 2006 - Porque não podemos ser uma Arca de Noé! (II).

...
What we see, on the one hand, is that many retailers that are strongly focused on the value end of the spectrum—i.e., great prices, extensive merchandise assortments, and a highly convenient and efficient buying experience—are growing both sales and number of stores. At the other end of the spectrum, many brands that focus on offering unique products, more personalized service, and a more upscale and distinctive shopping experience are also gaining share and continuing to open more locations.
As the chart above illustrates, the problems in physical retail (and in troubled brands more broadly) are highly concentrated among those retailers trapped in what I call the boring, undifferentiated middle, or what Deloitte labels, somewhat charitably, “Balanced.”[Moi ici: O mesmo padrão por todo o lado, não é só no retalho físico, é em todos os sectores económicos ]
...
What Deloitte found was that high-income households have captured a disproportionate share of income growth in recent years. Indeed, the rich are getting richer, as the top 20 percent captured over 100 percent of income growth between 2007 and 2015.
...
For most Americans, however, the outcomes are quite different. They are downright depressing. For 80 percent of households, income growth has either declined or remained stagnant, while costs of non-discretionary expenses like healthcare, education, and other household essentials continue to increase, often markedly.
...
The implications for retail are significant. As both discretionary income and overall wealth have risen sharply for the affluent class, many are spending their gains on both products and services, often trading up to ever more expensive items. At the other end, for the other 80 percent who are getting squeezed harshly, total spending power has declined. As a result, their sensitivity to prices and stretching their dollars even further has greatly increased.
...
Department stores in particular have been swimming in a sea of sameness for decades. Now they are drowning.
The retailers that are struggling typically have both strategic and executional issues. From a business design standpoint they often sit in the middle of the price spectrum, offering neither great product value and convenience nor anything unique from a product, experience, or service standpoint. They sell fairly average “safe” products to the great masses of the population. A little bit of everything for everybody, nothing that special—or remarkable—for anybody. [Moi ici: A agonia de quem vende para o Normalistão quando o mundo está a ficar cheio de tribos. O nosso velho Estranhistão, ou Mongo]
...
These brands act like they are still in business. They think that some customers still really care whether they stay or they go.
I see dead brands. And they don’t even know they’re dead."[Moi ici: Recordo a metáfora do Rádio Clube Português ]

Duas formas de fazer dinheiro

"Na indústria automóvel, haverá sempre duas formas de fazer dinheiro: margem de lucro alargada ou escala de produção. [Moi ici: Só na indústria automóvel? É em todo o lado, sobretudo depois da polarização dos mercados e do fim do meio-termo] Em tempos de crise, qual é a mais rentável?
.
Num mercado de volume, termos a tentação de dizer que será sempre a escala a ditar o sucesso de cada construtor.
...
A Toyota ganhou… 1.954 euros e a Volkswagen um pouco menos, 1.536 euros por carro, isto já depois de todas as despesas deduzidas com a venda de cada modelo. Um valor baixo que oferece um montante de lucro operacional elevado porque ambos os gigantes vendem millhões de carros todos os anos. As atrapalhadas Ford e Nissan, ganham, respetivamente, 95 e 93 euros em cada carro que vendem. Um problema grave que explica a situação que vivem.
...
Do outro lado está a aposta na maximização do lucro e aqui a Ferrari não dá chances a ninguém: a casa de Maranello ganha 86 mil euros em cada carro construído! Sim, leu bem… 86 mil euros! São 23,2% de margem de lucro operacional de uma produção de 10.131 carros em 2019."

Recordar a VW versus a Porsche.

Trechos retirados de "Sabe quanto a Ferrari ganha em cada carro? E a VW? O AUTOMAIS conta-lhe tudo!"

Liabilities versus assets

Ontem de manhã, durante a minha caminhada matinal, li o capítulo 3 - "Apocalypse? No" do livro “Remarkable Retail” de Steve Dennis.

O autor começa por apresentar números que ilustram que o retalho físico continua a crescer. Refere que cada vez mais marcas ou lojas que nasceram online estão também a ter presença física. Mais, algumas lojas online que nunca tiveram lucro, têm lucro no negócio do retalho físico:

"In fact, some of these brands are now reportedly generating more incremental profits from their physical stores than through their e-commerce operations, most of which remain unprofitable."

Aqui, escrevi que à medida que ia lendo o capítulo 2 ia fazendo o paralelismo para a imprensa.

Recordo aqui o que escrevo sobre a imprensa há anos: A imprensa perdeu os leitores menos importantes e a publicidade para a internet. A sua única salvação seriam os leitores que a continuavam a comprar porque queriam mais profundidade e menos espuma. Contudo, a imprensa nunca chegou a mudar de modelo de negócio, foi-se ajustando com cortes, com estagiários e espuma dos dias, alienando os únicos clientes que ainda a queriam.

Agora, reparem neste texto:

"A brand that fundamentally regards its stores as liabilities seeks to optimize them for efficiency. That often begins a cycle of cost cutting and store closings. Conversely, if a brand sees its stores as assets, it must still work on improving its e-commerce and digital enablement capabilities. More importantly, it leans into making its stores more relevant by leveraging the many benefits of stores that online-only retailers can’t match: providing immediate gratification; being able to touch, feel, and try on products; allowing for free and safe product pick-up; obtaining sales help from a real live person; and so on.
.
Physical store spaces absolutely must transform for a digital age—in many cases quite radically. But the idea that all—or even most—of physical retail is doomed is clearly wrong."

E isto não é só para a imprensa e para o retalho. É para todos os sectores da economia... recordo um livro:

"Our ongoing research into the drivers of superior performance has led us to conclude that exceptional profitability is a function of a corporation’s commitment to following three rules:

1. Better before cheaper: Don’t compete on price, compete on value.
2. Revenue before cost: Drive profitability with higher revenue, not lower cost.
3. There are no other rules: Change anything and everything to stay aligned with the first two rules."

Claro que se for uma empresa apostada em vencer no camnpeonato do custo mais baixo a estória é outra, mas recorde: o negócio do preço mais baixo não é para quem quer é para quem pode!

A teoria da conspiração exposta

Ontem, no seu programa em directo, Camilo Lourenço citou um artigo em que se dizia que a produtividade das empresas em teletrabaho aumentou. A minha primeira reacção foi:

- Gostava de saber como definiram e mediram a produtividade.

Eu sei como se mede a produtividade na administração pública, por exemplo. Um absurdo.

Eu sei como os trabalhadores por conta própria não contam para a taxa de emprego. Um absurdo quando o seu número cresce em todo o mundo.

Por isso, foi com um ar cínico que vi na televisão ontem os números da taxa de desemprego em Abril para Portugal segundo o INE. Estes tempos, também são bons para expor ao ridículo as definições políticas que se usam.

No JdN de hoje:

"A taxa de desemprego caiu em março para 6,2%, revelou ontem o Instituto Nacional de Estatística. Este é um valor mais baixo do que o do mês passado, do que o verificado três meses antes e do que o do mesmo mês de 2019. Para abril, o cálculo provisório – que é bastante falível, assume o organismo
de estatísticas – indica uma subida muito ligeira, para 6,3%. Mas onde estão, afinal, os desempregados da era covid-19? Estão escondidos entre a população inativa, explicam os  especialistas. Não fosse este efeito, a taxa estaria agora na casa dos 8%.
.
Não é nenhuma teoria da conspiração, [Moi ici: Revela sim a teoria da conspiração permanente, os tempos presentes apenas a expõe ao ridículo] nem nenhuma decisão premeditada pelo INE, mas a taxa de desemprego reportada para o mercado de trabalho português não está a contar a história toda do que se está a passar no país."

Ainda ontem numa empresa dizia a um grupo de trabalhadores na casa dos vinte e pouco, vinte e muitos anos:
- Quando eu tinha a vossa idade não ligava às definições. Agora, agora é das primeiras coisas para que olho, para saber com o que é que vou lidar.

A subida na escala de valor (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

Tudo pode ser posto em causa porque tudo foi perdido.

Dizer a um empresário que terá de encolher a sua empresa, que terá de despedir gente, que terá de aumentar preços, que ..., parece-lhe absurdo, injusto, demasiado, exagerado. Então os clientes estão a abandonar-me porque tenho preços altos e está a dizer-me que tenho de aumentar preços?!

Por isso, vai resistir, vai agarrar-se ao modelo existente até à última. Por isso, muitos não mudam a tempo e as empresas acabam por morrer.

Uma frase que uso há anos: os macacos não voam, os macacos trepam ás árvores. Um empresário de calçado não começa a fabricar foguetões para subir na escala de valor, só sabe fazer sapatos, poucos são os que mudam de ramo.

O que os empresários portugueses fizeram nos sectores tradicionais foi à custa da exploration descobrir uma alternativa onde podiam assegurar uma fonte de rendimento. A teoria da efectuação propõe uma explicação com os seus 5 princípios. Por exemplo, começar com o que se tem à mão, se a vida nos dá limões em vez de laranjas façamos limonada, quem é que conheço que possa ajudar-me?, o que posso arriscar sem pôr o futuro em causa? ...

A alternativa que emergiu, e eu sublinho a palavra emergiu, pois não foi fruto de um qualquer directório socialista, pois não foi fruto de experimentação planeada, mas antes resultado de uma caótica e quiçá desesperada tentativa e erro por muitos, cada um com o seu projecto. Recordo o que Sérgio Figueiredo e Daniel Bessa (em 2005) e André Macedo (em 2008) diziam sobre os sectores tradicionais. BTW, tremam ao pensar que um directório socialista vai usar 26 mil milhões de euros em investimento estruturante na economia...

A alternativa que emergiu mais do que baseada num produto foi baseada numa vantagem competitiva: a rapidez e a flexibilidade. Em Outubro de 2015 escrevi "Do concreto para o abstracto e não o contrário" sobre o que considero o erro dos livros de gestão quando aplicados às PMEs. Nas PMEs não se pode ir da teoria para a prática, tem de se ser mais pragmático e rápido, tem de se ir da prática para a teoria para depois fazer a batota. Atenção, não existem vantagens competitivas intrínsecas tem de haver interessados nelas, tem de haver clientes que as valorizem. Uma empresa capaz de prazos de entrega rápidos é de pouco valor para um cliente organizado que faz encomendas com 4 semanas de antecedência. No entanto, essa mesma empresa é preciosa para um outro cliente desorganizado, ou num sector super-rápido e fluido que faz encomendas com 1 semana de antecedência e às vezes para ontem.

A PME tuga num sector tradicional, fruto da cultura do desenrascanço, fruto da proximidade dos mercados da Europa Ocidental descobriu e foi descoberta como fornecedora de produtos que se vendiam nas lojas a preços cerca de dez vezes mais, no mínimo, do que os produtos deslocalizados para a China. Claro que o produto à saída da fábrica era 3 a 10 vezes mais caro que o produto fabricado na China, mas o empresário não ganhava assim tanto, tinha de pagar salários mais altos, tinha de pagar matérias-primas mais caras, tinha um jugo impostal de respeito ...

E foi este modelo que deu origem a um novo Estado 2 de suposto equilíbrio académico. O modelo revelou-se um sucesso assegurando quase dez anos de crescimento das exportações, subida do preço médio, aumento do número de empresas, aumento do número de trabalhadores no sector.

Rust never sleeps. Assim que o modelo revela algum sucesso os decisores de Excel resolvem entrar em cena. Eles só entram depois dos pioneiros terem apanhado com todas as setas. E dinheiro começa ser canalizado para replicar o modelo, mas em países de mão de obra mais barata, mas com a mesma vantagem competitiva da distância para os locais de consumo - recordo Simon Wardley e o eterno efeito da eficiência.

Norte de África, Leste Europeu e Turquia. Leste Europeu mais Roménia, Bulgária, Albânia porque os outros países já estão a outro nível de salários e de custos de oportunidade... o 25 de Novembro devia ter tido outro desfecho. Assim, nunca tivemos o nosso 1989 a sério.

Rust never sleeps e a seu tempo, 2018 foi o apogeu deste Estado 2, os novos concorrentes vieram estancar o aumento de preços ou até mesmo a reduzi-los. E o Estado 2 começou a entrar em desequilíbrio. Recordo este postal de 24 de Abril de 2019 "O fim de um ciclo" sobre isto:


Enquanto o modelo dava sinais de esgotamento por si próprio, o Estado e os intelectuais decidiam acelerar o seu fim invertendo os pressupostos da relação salários e produtividade

Em cima disto surge o Covid-19 com encomendas canceladas, encomendas não pagas, inventários por vender ,...

Apetece dizer vamos ficar todos bem, o slogan mais parvo jamais inventado. Só pode ter sido inventado por um funcionário com direitos adquiridos

Continua com e como se sai disto?

Como lidar com o fim da escassez

Ontem de manhã, durante a minha caminhada matinal, li o capítulo 2 - The End of Scarcity do livro “Remarkable Retail” de Steve Dennis.

Enquanto lia ia fazendo os meus sublinhados e ia fazendo o paralelismo para a imprensa, para o calçado, para tantos sectores económicos.

Depois, ao final do dia, num momento de balanço, recordei:

• o pedido de alguém que encomendava sapatos na China, e que agora pretende encomendá-los em Portugal, para vender na sua página. Quando olhei para os preços de venda ao público... pensei, não será possível produzir isto cá e vender a estes preços;
• o desabafo de um empresário desiludido com as margens que consegue ter no seu negócio.

Alguns trechos do tal capítulo 2:

"Media are no longer scarce
...
Information is no longer scarce
...
“A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.”
...
Access Is No Longer Scarce
...
Choice Is No Longer Scarce
...
Today, in many circumstances, choice is no longer constrained by how many aisles the various stores within a reasonable drive time contain. The aisles are virtually endless, and the long tail of selection is often taken for granted. Choice is now so abundant that even the most idiosyncratic of tastes can be satisfied.[Moi ici: Mongo]
.
Convenience Is No Longer Scarce
...
Products that used to take weeks to get delivered can often be delivered the same day and sometimes, with the advent of Prime Now from Amazon, within an hour or so.
Products that had few, if any, viable options (or were prohibitively expensive) are now routinely delivered by retailers or delivery services
...
Connection Is No Longer Scarce
...
The boundaries that limited connection between individuals and brands have come down, and much of the friction, be it in cost, time, physical distance, or complexity, is now gone.
...
Cheap Is No Longer Scarce
...
Everything, Now
.
Decreasing costs of computing power and the associated network effects have created a bountiful buffet of choice, much of it on demand, whenever we want it.
Before the internet, the shopping world consisted of a limited selection of outlets carrying a limited assortment of products that might work well for us, purchased at a hoped-for decent price, during regular store hours, delivered mostly on the retailer’s terms.
...
Today, the expectation is that everything can be had now. No compromise. No excuses.
As retailers seek to gain customers’ attention, engage in meaningful ways, and earn their trust, this is no small task. This new abundance forces us to rethink much of what made our organizations successful in the past. The scarcity that used to determine so many retail and consumer market decisions is now effectively over. Forever.
.
Good Enough No Longer Is
...
the diminishment of key elements of scarcity has changed just about everything that was once important in most businesses.
...
Not too long ago, plenty of brands could get away with good enough. Their focus was on scale, serving the peak of the bell curve, providing average products for average people. Yet when customers have vast information at their fingertips, access to just about anything they want, whenever they want, from wherever they want, why should they settle for average, merely acceptable, unremarkable, mediocre, or boring?
Not only shouldn’t they. They’re not.
Our mission—should we choose to accept it—is to build new sources of scarcity that can be proprietary to our brand. These days building scarcity around information, access, choice, and connection is hard, if not impossible. 
...
Instead, this new scarcity must be built around commanding attention in new, interesting, and memorable ways, creating incomparable experiences, and earning customers’ trust by knowing them better than the competition and delivering on a promise over and over again. Mostly, we need to create a brand story that moves them, that customers become enrolled in, and that they feel compelled to share, to spread, to (quite literally) remark upon."

O capítulo 3 é sobre o Armagedão, ou sobre como as notícias da morte do retalho físico são um exagero.

A subida na escala de valor (parte II)

Parte I.

Quando se é só fabricante é-se price-taker não price-maker.

Qualquer organização pode praticar a exploitation e/ou a exploration.

No tal suposto equilíbrio académico no Estado 1 a maioria das organizações aposta na exploitation.

Estavam todos embalados no sono do tal Estado 1 quando a China chega ao jogo.
De forma mais ou menos acelerada a população de empresas começa alterar-se, a quantidade de empresas:

• na gama baixa sofre uma razia muito, muito grande - especulemos, ao fim de alguns meses, 65% destas empresas desaparecem  
• na gama média-baixa - especulemos, ao fim de alguns meses mais, 80% destas empresas desaparecem 
• na gama média-alta - especulemos, ao fim de alguns meses mais, 10% destas empresas desaparecem. Algumas empresas, poucas, conseguem transitar da gama média-baixa para a gama média-alta 
• na faixa topo de gama - especulemos, nenhuma empresa desaparece e até algumas da gama média-alta conseguem transitar para a gama do luxo
• por fim, na faixa do luxo - especulemos, não houve alterações.

Isto é o que acontece nos primeiros meses de um choque económico negativo, a mortandade empresarial começa a crescer e assim vai evoluindo ao longo do tempo. O sistema está em desequilíbrio, as empresas em sofrimento e a falecer, a maioria, e outras a conseguirem trepar mais além. O que está a acontecer é o que aprendi há muitos anos com o exemplo finlandês:

"It is widely believed that restructuring has boosted productivity by displacing low-skilled workers and creating jobs for the high skilled."Mas, e como isto é profundo:"In essence, creative destruction means that low productivity plants are displaced by high productivity plants." 

O que está a acontecer é o que Nassim Taleb tão bem traduz em algo como, os sistemas económicos não aprendem porque as empresas individualmente aprendem, poucas são capazes de evoluir. Os sistemas a nível colectivo aprendem e evoluem sobretudo através do mecanismo de selecção: as empresas que reduzem a capacidade de adaptação do todo, as empresas que não evoluem são eliminadas, desde que haja skin in the game. Quando se olha para o agregado parece que houve uma evolução, quando afinal houve uma substituição. Daí a minha preocupação com o prolongamento do lay-of.

Quem olhar para os dados da produtividade agregada do sector, ou para os preços médios praticados no sector ao fim de vários meses de crise instalada vai perceber duas coisas:

• aumento importante da produtividade agregada;
• aumento importante do preço médio praticado.

É a velha estória metafórica acerca da média de golos que conto nesta série. Um português comia 5 frangos e outro 3. Se o que comia 3 morrer, a média sobe logo de 4 para 5.

Sobre este Estado 2, por agora, não vou dizer que está em equilíbrio, é um autêntico plano inclinado. 

É claro que quer as empresas em dificuldades, quer algumas pessoas dispensadas das empresas encerradas começam a fazer experiências com alterações ao modelo de negócio que conheciam, na expectativa de encontrar um novo alicerce sobre o qual possam recomeçar. Quando já se perdeu tudo, e não se sabe mendigar, não há mais nada a perder, tudo pode ser posto em causa.

Continua com produtividade, competitividade, preços e nível de vida.