Mongo e JTBD

Por um lado Mongo, o progresso dos espaços com as suas próprias cervejas artesanais. Por outro lado, o mesmo conselho referido neste postal recente, "Olhar para os clientes-alvo":

"To find a solution, Sarah and her team reconnected with Gatorade’s core customer, the serious athlete. What they found was that these athletes did much more than just hydrate during athletic events"

Olhar para o cliente-alvo, para o seu contexto, para o seu dia e descobrir que há outros serviços que o espaço pode prestar.

No princípio do ano mudei de casa e antes de arranjar um espaço para escritório, enquanto tinha as minhas coisas num contentor (recomendo vivamente), usava o McDonalds do nó do Fojo em Gaia como base de trabalho, tirando a música muito alta para o meu gosto, tinha uma mesa, tinha internet e electricidade.

Depois de uma caminhada matinal, estabelecia-me e ficava por lá das 8h30 até às 13h30. Era interessante reparar como aquele espaço se mutava ao longo da manhã. Pequenos-almoços e cafés e pequenas reuniões para a fauna do início da manhã. Reuniões de trabalho, entrevistas de emprego ou entrevistas a traidores industriais, entrevistas a jornalistas, o advogado carregado de papéis e ainda com mais marcadores fluorescentes e post-its do que eu a meio da manhã. Depois, à hora do almoço os estudantes da secundária a 500 metros e toda a panóplia de gente que precisa de um almoço rápido, barato e sem receio da higiene.

Esta abordagem em torno do Job-To-Be-Done presente em "Breweries Find That Coffee Is Their Second Favorite Beverage".

BTW, eu que bebo café sem açúcar (que mascare a realidade) sei que há muito café horrível a circular por este país. Assim, quando o costume de usar açúcar ou adoçantes com o café cair, vai nascer a procura por melhor café. Procura essa que vai ser difícil de ser servida por empresas mais preocupadas com a eficiência do que atender às chamadas de atenção de uns consumidores-chatos. Nessa altura estará criada a oportunidade para alguém avançar com café artesanal.

Acerca dos processos (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

Este trecho:

"The feel of Starbucks stores isn’t created merely by the layout and the décor—it exists because the people behind the counter understand how their work fits into a common purpose, and recognize how to accomplish great things together without needing to follow a script."

Retirado de "How to Excel at Both Strategy and Execution" e citado aqui permite conciliar o dilema da parte II.

Recordo, eu, um adepto incondicional da abordagem por processos, a sublinhar que os processos podem também ter um lado perverso quando cristalizam as práticas e impedem as organizações de fugir do incrementalismo.

Aquele sublinhado ali em cima fez-me pensar numa série de actividades que as pessoas têm de realizar e que estão sistematizadas em processos para o fazerem de forma uniforme e eficiente. E muitas organizações ficam-se por este nível. Outras, por causa da sua estratégia, por causa das suas pessoas, por causa dos seus clientes, por causa de uma mistura destas coisas, olham para o processo como uma espécie de esqueleto, um script-base, e sobre ele começam a construir camadas de interacção, camadas de personalização, camadas de facilitados de co-criação de valor que acabam por  descaracterizar o script inicial num conjunto de scripts adequados a cada contexto numa relação 1-para-1.

Transformar é possível (parte I)

"the days of keeping strategy and execution as separate topics are ending: We need leaders that can create big promises to customers, and help their organizations deliver on those promises.
...
Starbucks has been able to deliver on its promise because that promise is tightly linked to the company’s distinctive capabilities. The feel of Starbucks stores isn’t created merely by the layout and the décor—it exists because the people behind the counter understand how their work fits into a common purpose, and recognize how to accomplish great things together without needing to follow a script.
...
a bold vision needs to include both a very ambitious destination and a well-conceived path for execution that will get you there. This is ever more important today, where differentiating your company is so difficult. Differentiation increasingly requires more innovative thinking, and the use of very specific areas of expertise
...
Leaders who master both strategy and execution start by building a bold but executable strategy. Next, they ensure that the company is investing behind the change. And last, they make sure the entire organization is motivated to go the journey.
...
Developing a bold but executable strategy starts with making sure leaders have addressed the questions of “What are we great at?” and “What are we able to achieve?” rather than coming up with lofty plans and asking functional and business-unit teams to do their best to execute. Indeed, they spell out the few differentiating capabilities that the company must excel at to realize the strategy.
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Ensuring that the company is investing behind the change means that leaders recognize that the budget process is one of the most important tools in closing the strategy-to-execution gap. Cost isn’t an exogenous variable to be managed—it is the investment in doing the most important things well. But rarely are budgets linked closely to the strategy. If your company is merely incrementalizing the budget up or down by a few percentage points, ask yourself whether the investments are really reflective of the most important tasks."

Nuno, isto tem tudo a ver com o desafio de 15/16 de Dezembro. Apresentar um destino ambicioso, conversar abertamente sobre como é viver nesse destino, que resultados obtêm a empresa e os clientes, o que dizem os clientes da empresa, o que dizem os trabalhadores da empresa e do que fazem. Deixar a visão da terra onde corre leite e mel seduzi-los, deixar que contribuam para a descrição de como é essa terra, eles já lá estão, eles já lá vivem, o que vêem, o que fazem, o que sentem? Depois, capturar o gap, a lacuna entre o que ainda somos  e o que queremos ser no futuro desejado para construir o programa de transformação.

Continua.


Trechos retirados de "How to Excel at Both Strategy and Execution"

Acerca dos processos (parte II)

Parte I.

Sabem como sou um adepto da abordagem por processos. No entanto, reconheço que existe o perigo que se descreve a seguir:

"From business processes to workgroup practices. Most large companies today formally organize around processes; ... Indeed, workers—and entire organizations—get so caught up in “doing the process right” that they lose sight of the outcomes. And processes are increasingly inadequate to drive significant performance improvement. [Moi ici: Cuidado com o contexto desta afirmação anterior. Em que sector está a sua empresa? Em que fase está?] The value of further optimizing processes to deliver products and services seems to be rapidly diminishing. What can be standardized likely will be, and those processes will likely be automated, but where will the next level of performance come from? Focusing on process efficiency and eliminating variance may not help companies gain a competitive advantage. [Moi ici: Ler esta frase e recordar o fim da Redsigma] More importantly, in this environment, most processes can’t keep up with addressing the new challenges and opportunities served up by the Big Shift world—nor can process optimization likely help companies figure out how to create more value for their customers.[Moi ici:Apesar de todo o valor que atribuo à abordagem por processos percebo que existe este perigo. Infelizmente em Portugal o risco maior é o de não haver práticas sistematizadas de raiz]
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Not only can routine processes be an avenue of diminishing returns—they can actually be barriers to performance improvement. Trying to update and optimize processes to conform with the ever-changing reality, and ensure compliance to those processes, is typically time- and resource-consuming. Continuing to optimize processes can divert the organization from investing in the capabilities to make sense of the changing reality and learning how to better create and capture value for it. Machines are increasingly able to perform the tightly specified, highly standardized tasks that support scalable efficiency more predictably and reliably than humans. As a result, many companies have invested in automating processes—removing people wherever possible—rather than exploring how these tools might better reflect and amplify the business practices of the people who could be deployed to create more value for the business.
...
the temptation for most large organizations is to focus on controlling what they can. Consider the example of 3M, where, in the early 2000s, a new CEO decided to “optimize” R&D by systematically stripping away inefficiencies. [Moi ici: Recordar a estória da caneta] Controls were brought to bear on R&D: Processes were formalized, with forms developed to ensure engineers innovated efficiently and tighten compliance; 3M’s operating margins quickly improved and Wall Street rewarded it. But the company soon found that R&D wasn’t creating new sources of value as effectively as it once had, and not until a new CEO came in to unwind those efforts was 3M able to turn things around, in 2012.

Continua.

Trecho retirado de "Beyond process How to get better, faster as “exceptions” become the rule"

Ainda há muito espaço para melhorar (parte II)

Parte I.

"Experts have opined for decades on the reasons behind the spectacular failure rates of strategy execution.
...
A full 61% of executives told us they were not prepared for the strategic challenges they faced upon being appointed to senior leadership roles. It’s no surprise, then, that 50%–60% of executives fail within the first 18 months of being promoted or hired.
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Appointing that many unprepared leaders into roles directly responsible for crafting and executing strategy only fuels the risk of executional failure. Here are four of the most common signs that an executive is likely to fail when attempting to bring the organization’s strategy to life.
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They lack depth in their competitive context. [Moi ici: Recordar a cláusula 4.1 da ISO 9001:2015] Taking on broader leadership roles usually results in greater insularity for leaders. Their focus is pulled toward internal issues: resolving conflicts, reconciling budgets, and managing performance. Consequently, they pay less attention to external strategic issues like competitor moves, customer needs, and technology trends. One study reports that 70% of leaders spend on average one day a month reviewing strategy and 85% of leadership teams spend less than an hour per month discussing strategy. When leaders fail to understand the competitive context of their organizations, they sometimes hide behind unrealistic goals to overcompensate. When I ask executives to show me their organization’s strategy, they often hand me a strategic plan that has product quotas and market share growth targets, or they show me the mission and values statement with some lofty statements on one page. But they rarely show me a clear market identity that articulates who they will serve and who they won’t, what capabilities they will be disproportionately better at than their competitors, and why their target customers would choose them over competitors."

Esta última descrição aplica-se bem a uma multinacional onde estive recentemente, e onde me apresentaram como estratégia um documento onde se explicavam as virtudes do produto mas nem uma única palavra sobre quem são os clientes-alvo, sobre qual a sua proposta de valor e sobre como chegar a eles.


Continua.

Trechos retirados de "Executives Fail to Execute Strategy Because They’re Too Internally Focused"

Ainda há muito espaço para melhorar

"Two thirds (67%) of leaders believe their organization is good at crafting strategy but only 47% believe their organization is good at implementing strategy.
...
Only 10% of organizations surveyed achieve at least two-thirds of their strategy objectives, with 36% achieving between 50%-67% and 54% achieving less than 50%.
...
In an alarming 49% of organizations, leaders spend only one day a month reviewing their implementation. 

In 2016, the top three reasons for implementation failures are 1) Poor Communication, 2) Lack of Leadership and 3) Using the Wrong Measures."

Trechos e imagens retiradas de "Bridges 2016 Survey Results"

Free webinar – ISO 9001:2015 clause 4

Interessados podem registar-se aqui.

Acerca dos processos (parte I)

"From financial performance metrics to operating and frontline metrics. Financial metrics drive behavior at the top levels of most large organizations today. Yet, these metrics tend to be lagging indicators of performance; they are backward-looking. If you’re serious about getting on an accelerating trajectory, you should identify and rigorously track the relevant leading indicators. [Moi ici: Ainda esta semana numa reunião disse que não interessa ter muitos indicadores, e a empresa tinha e tem, o que interessa é ter os indicadores significativos] Operating metrics are near-term, leading indicators of an organization’s performance. Key operating metrics drive financial metrics and have typically been thought of as measuring the success of a key business process. [Moi ici: Recordar a figura abaixo e o respectivo postal] The connection between operating metrics and frontline activities—and associated frontline metrics—that drive them is generally more immediate and understandable."

Foi isto que eu descobri há muito tempo e me levou a escrever o livro, depois de ter testado o conceito em duas empresas com resultados notáveis. Relacionar o balanced scorecard com a abordagem por processos, para ancorar as mudanças naquilo que é permanente nas organizações, os processos. Recordar o I'll be back!

Continua.

Trecho retirado de "Beyond process How to get better, faster as “exceptions” become the rule"

Estratégia corporativa

Ao longo da minha vida profissional tive poucas oportunidades, 2 ou 3, de trabalhar a este nível, o corporativo, o da sociedade gestora de participações, o do grupo de empresas.

Um trabalho interessante, o de criar valor a partir da sinergia entre várias empresas para que valham mais juntas do que separadas.

Guardo aqui para rever, numa eventual oportunidade futura de trabalho, este texto muito interessante, "Four Logics of Corporate Strategy"

Gente de outra estirpe

Um texto, "Ineficiência na gestão custa 47 milhões à hotelaria todos os anos", que mereceria reflexão especial no recato de cada organização e a nível de associações do sector.

"Desfasamento entre o 'boom' da procura e a adequação do preço médio da hotelaria custou, em cinco anos, 235 milhões.
...
Quanto custou a ineficiência na gestão do boom da procura turística à hotelaria? Em cinco anos (de 2012 a 2016), nas três regiões onde o desfasamento entre o disparo da procura e a resposta do setor foi maior, as empresas hoteleiras perderam 235 milhões de euros.
...
O estudo da BlueShift comparou o período compreendido entre o ano antes do arranque da procura (2012) e o ano recorde para o turismo nacional (2016). A análise pretendeu averiguar até que ponto as organizações conseguiram ou não tirar partido da nova tendência de crescimento. Deste modo, foram comparadas a Taxa de Ocupação e o Preço Médio, já que a rentabilidade operacional só pode ser maximizada se ambos se expandirem. Um euro de crescimento em preço, por exemplo, traduz-se diretamente em resultados. Se esse mesmo euro for apenas conseguido via ocupação, apenas 40 cêntimos (numa operação otimizada) traduzem-se em resultados — uma vez que é necessário subtrair os custos variáveis do montante acumulado."

Triste é as associações sectoriais serem chefiadas por gente mais interessada em fazer política partidária do que em pensar o sector e trabalhar para fazer sempre a melhor limonada com os limões que a vida nos dá em vez de estar sempre no choradinho porque nos calharam limões e não ananases ou maracujás.

O filme é claro, o estudo começa em 2012 com o ano a que chama "antes do arranque da procura":

•  Janeiro de 2013 - Não há nada a fazer?

O presidente de uma associação não pode e não deve falar impunemente. Deve ser consequente, deve ser responsável. Não deve mentir mas deve dar esperança. Não esperança cor de rosa, não esperança mágica mas esperança com base nas oportunidades que possam existir. O que dizia o presidente da Associação da Hotelaria de Portugal:

"Para 2013 espera-se menos emprego, menos investimento, pior prestação em termos de resultados. Não há milagres"

• Outubro de 2013 - O exemplo da hotelaria

"A hotelaria portuguesa poderá ter um ano de recordes em 2013. Até ao final do ano, o sector prevê receber 14,5 milhões de hóspedes, contra 13,9 milhões em 2012, e 42 milhões de dormidas, face aos 39,8 milhões do ano passado. “Nunca se atingiram estes números em Portugal e vamos ter resultados significativos este ano”, sublinha o presidente da Associação da Hotelaria de Portugal (AHP), Luís Veiga, em entrevista ao SOL." [Moi ici: Em algum lado ouviram uma retratação deste senhor? Não, qual Cravinho continuou como se nada se tivesse passado]

• Abril de 2015 - Decididamente há aqui alguma coisa que não bate certo... 

O senhor até me faz recordar Pessoa:

"«Aqui ao leme sou mais do que eu:
Sou um Povo que quer o mar que é teu;"

Ao leme de uma associação não deviam estar os mais retrógrados, deviam estar os visionários, deviam estar os que dão esperança, os que mostram sugerem caminhos, gente com locus de controlo interno. Gente que sabe que ao leme têm de ser mais do que são.

Quando ao leme está alguém que vê e proclama que o copo está meio vazio o que é que faz a maioria? Acredita na mensagem de que o copo está meio vazio.

Aquele trecho lá em cima:

"Um euro de crescimento em preço, por exemplo, traduz-se diretamente em resultados. Se esse mesmo euro for apenas conseguido via ocupação, apenas 40 cêntimos (numa operação otimizada) traduzem-se em resultados"

devia ser objecto de reflexão profunda. Sabem qual é a elasticidade da procura? Sabem quantos clientes perdem quando aumentam o preço 1% Sabem quanto ganham a mais quando o preço aumenta 1%? Espero que saibam que o objectivo não é ter os quartos todos ocupados mas sim ganhar dinheiro.

Em vez de olhar para estas coisas, qual Dastardly, sempre a olhar para a concorrência, sempre preocupado com o queijo a que tem como direito adquirido:

• Março de 2015 - Sim, é muito mais complexo do que o "paradigma"

E olhar para dentre e ser frontal só deve trazer problemas. Imaginem o que seria com alguém da estirpe do senhor Proença à frente da AHP.

Pois, gente de outra estirpe, recordar Novembro de 2011

Conseguem imaginar isto?

E isto, "Nissan perde certificado de qualidade internacional nas fábricas japonesas"?

Por que é que as fábricas da Nissan perderam a certificação ISO 9001?

"devido a irregularidades nos controlos de automóveis, informou esta quarta-feira a agência nipónica Kyodo. A multinacional empregou trabalhadores sem qualificações necessárias para realizarem a revisão final dos seus automóveis, tendo estas irregularidades sido detetadas em setembro passado."

Presumo que a entidade certificadora não tenha tido alternativa depois de terem sido publicados os resultados de inspecção do Ministério do Trabalho:

"Estes controlos dos automóveis irregulares foram revelados em setembro, depois de ter sido feita uma inspeção pelo Ministério do Trabalho japonês às unidades do grupo." 

Conseguem imaginar isto a acontecer no Ocidente? Que governo iria pôr em causa um gigante? Que entidade certificadora iria actuar?

Por exemplo, será que o Hospital Francisco Xavier está certificado?

Há quase 20 anos uma entidade certificadora pediu-me para realizar auditoria de certificação ambiental a empresa industrial. Respondi-lhes que estavam loucos, eu conhecia a empresa dos telejornais por sistematicamente a vizinhança manifestar-se à sua porta, contra a construção sem licença de uma secção com impactes ambientais que lhe metiam medo.

Conteúdos como relações

Antes de ler "Winning with Content – How to Stay Competitive with Amazon This Holiday Season" ler um relato em primeira mão em "My visit to an Amazon bookstore" e recordar que se calhar a tal ideia de winner-take-all é capaz de não ser totalmente verdade, é preciso é trabalhar.

Recordar este pensamento:

"Brands think of content as another product to create, but content isn’t a thing. Content is a relationship."

Para reflexão

Pensamento profundo:

"Brands think of content as another product to create, but content isn’t a thing. Content is a relationship."

Trecho retirado de “Make relationships, not things”

Saltar da panela confortável não é para todos

"In organizations of any size, there will be dozens or hundreds of competing and often conflicting priorities. The discipline of honing priorities down to a handful can force a leadership team to surface, discuss, and ultimately make a call on the most consequential trade-offs the company faces in the next few years. When executives make the hard calls and communicate them through the ranks, they provide clear guidance on the contentious issues likely to arise when executing strategy. But making trade-offs among competing priorities is difficult — they are dubbed “tough calls” for a reason. Prioritizing different objectives results in “winners” and “losers” in terms of visibility, resources, and corporate support. Many leadership teams go to great lengths to avoid conflict, and as a result end up producing toothless strategic priorities.
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A common way to avoid conflict is to designate everything as “strategic” — one S&P 500 company, for example, listed a dozen strategic objectives. Another way leadership teams resist making difficult calls is by combining multiple objectives into a single strategic priority."

Conheço este filme, o medo de fazer trade-offs. O medo de ser pragmático, o medo de romper consensos, o medo de saltar da panela confortável para o frio:

Recordar van den Steen:

• Irreversibilidade - uma faca de dois gumes;
• Acerca da estratégia e da sua ausência;
• Acerca da estratégia - parte I;
• Acerca da estratégia - parte II;
• Acerca da estratégia - parte III

Trecho retirado de "Turning Strategy Into Results"

Curiosidade do dia

Neste país de incumbentes e sempre amigo de rentistas, o que andarão os governos sucessivos e os partidos da oposição e da situação a fazer, conluiados com as empresas produtoras, distribuidoras e comercializados de energia para evitar este cenário de "desligar da rede"?

Para reflexão, "In Ontario, hydro’s future gets murkier as costs of leaving the grid decline"

Há quantos anos não muda de estratégia?

Esta estória é demais "Wells Fargo Review Finds 1.4 Million More Suspect Accounts".

Em 2003 ou 2004 vi uma apresentação de Kaplan sobre o mapa da estratégia da Wells Fargo e recordo que traduzia uma estratégia baseada nas vendas cruzadas.

Em quase 15 anos ninguém mexeu na estratégia por ser tão bem sucedida. No entanto, uma estratégia por mais bem sucedida que seja não é eterna, algures vai ficar obsoleta.

O que a estória da Wells Fargo retrata é um autêntica loucura. À medida, que a estratégia foi ficando obsoleta, os trabalhadores com receio da ira da gestão começaram a abrir contas que os clientes não tinham pedido ou autorizado. WEIRD!!!

"The findings brought the number of potentially unauthorized accounts to 3.5 million — a nearly 70 percent increase over the bank’s initial estimate.
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Wells Fargo agreed last September to pay $185 million to settle three government lawsuits over the bank’s creation of sham accounts. Thousands of employees, trying to meet aggressive sales goals, had created accounts in customers’ names without their knowledge. Workers who met the bank’s sales targets received bonuses — and those who did not risked losing their jobs."

E a estratégia da sua empresa, continua a mesma? Há quantos anos?

"by discovering how to be more of who you are"

"It’s fine for Roger Federer to study a competitor’s gameplay before they go head-to-head because he needs to respond tactically in the moment. But the majority of Federer’s winning shots come from understanding his strengths and working on what he does well. Becoming more of who he is gets him over the line.
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It’s doubtful that comparing yourself or your work to someones else’s will get you to where you want to go. Whether as an individual or a brand—you can’t own your unique identity if you’re spending the majority of your time looking over your shoulder. Differentiation happens when you authentically amplify the best of you. Not by finding ways to be a version of the competition, but by discovering how to be more of who you are. That’s where your search for clarity needs to begin."

Em vez de Dasterdlys:

"First, define yourself, then, define your audience"

Trecho retirado de "The Art Of Differentiation"

Olhar para os clientes-alvo

"To find a solution, Sarah and her team reconnected with Gatorade’s core customer, the serious athlete. What they found was that these athletes did much more than just hydrate during athletic events. [Moi ici: Olhar para os clientes-alvo e para o seu contexto, e identificar os desafios que têm pela frente] They would load up with carbohydrates before (Gold-medal winning runner Usain Bolt ate Skittles candy), and drink protein shakes after to recover. The team saw an opportunity to expand beyond the hydration niche, and introduced the G-Series family of products. The G-Series family included three complementary products to help athletes: energy chews and carbohydrate drinks to “Prime” before an athletic event; the core hydration drink to help the customer “Perform”; and protein shakes and bars to “Recover” after an event. The team expanded the products around the hydration drink, but also cut back on the range of different versions of the core beverage.
...
What Robb O’Hagan did was to apply what we call the Third Way to innovate. Neither incremental improvement of current products, nor radical rethinking of the business, the Third Way focuses on innovating around the current product to make it more valuable. Robb O’Hagan turned around the product not by changing the product but by complementing it with sports bars, energy chews, and protein shakes. What her team did wasn’t an expansion or revision of the current product; in fact the team reduced the range and number of variants. It also wasn’t a radical rethinking of the product. The Third Way is a different approach to innovation.
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What’s different? First, it’s not a “clean sheet” approach. It focuses on innovating around an existing product for an existing customer segment in a way that makes that product more appealing and valuable. Second, it’s not just a diversification approach – it’s not a search for random products that will appeal to the same customer segment. Instead, it focuses on developing a family of diverse innovations that are all focused on delivering a single business promise;
...
How do you get started with the Third Way approach to innovation? Here are three simple steps:
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First, reconnect with your core customers, and understand what gets in the way of them getting value from your product. Follow them through their acquisition, preparation, use, and disposal of your product, and watch for frustrations, challenges, or other barriers they face.
Then, challenge your team to innovate around your customer’s value chain, not yours. What can you do to remove the barriers that prevent your customers from getting value from your products? These represent opportunities for complementary products."

Trechos retirados de "How Gatorade Invented New Products by Revisiting Old Ones"

"humility and self-awareness to recognize the need to pivot"

"A pivot isn’t limited to early stage companies either.
...
At its best, a strategy pivot is all about turning toward business opportunities that your company can be uniquely positioned to address.
...
Customer problem pivot – using the same product or service to solve a different problem for the same customer segment.
Market segment pivot – using the same product or service to solve a similar problem for a different customer segment.[Moi ici: Um tema abordado recentemente aqui]
Technology pivot – repurposing technology to solve a more urgent or marketable problem for customers.
Product feature pivot – adapting the product to the real needs of customers based on their actual usage or feedback.
Revenue model pivot – finding a different way to generate revenue from the product such as moving from an initial purchase to subscription or licensing model.
Sales channel pivot – finding a more attractive route to market, a common tactic as brands move toward direct to consumer sales.
Product vs services pivot – a move to wrap a product with revenue generating services
Competitor pivot – evolving marketing to respond to a specific competitor via differentiation on their weakest points.
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It takes a certain amount of humility and self-awareness to recognize the need to pivot. It takes a fair bit of street savvy to do it well. Just like deciding initial strategy, a pivot should be based on data, experience, observation, and insight. Otherwise, the move might be just another distracting round of chasing the latest shiny new object."

Trechos retirados de "Mastering The Pivot: Shifting Strategy Toward Opportunity"

Acerca das exportações YTD - mês 9 (2017)

Uma pena o "Parcial I" ter perdido peso naquele "Total" da figura, uma evolução que não via há muito tempo.

Estratégia como uma hipótese (parte II)

Parte I.

"How can leaders translate the complexity of strategy into guidelines that are simple and flexible enough to execute? Rather than trying to boil the strategy down to a pithy statement, it’s better to develop a small set of priorities that everyone gets behind to produce results.
...
Strategy, at its heart, is about choice. Few companies succeed by making a single big bet. Most winning strategies are based on a bundle of choices about, among other things, the customers to serve, the scope of the business, product offerings, and capabilities that interact with one another to help a company make money."

Este: "Most winning strategies are based on a bundle of choices" é coerente com a ideia da estratégia não passar de uma hipótese e, ninguém com dois dedos de testa dever acreditar cegamente numa hipótese sem a testar na prática... engraçado, estou a recordar outro tweet de Osterwalder:

Turning an idea into a business is a “search” problem, not an “execution” problem. pic.twitter.com/ihJSqWEdGR

— Alex Osterwalder🇨🇭 (@AlexOsterwalder) March 19, 2017

E a recordar o meu velho Beinhocker:

"An evolving portfolio of strategic experiments gives the management team more choices, which means better odds that some of the choices will be right … The objective is to be able to make lots of small bets, and only make big bets as a part of amplifying successful experiments when uncertainties are much lower.”

E uma nova ligação

"Strategy is inherently complex. We see this in the thick reports and complex frameworks that companies use to describe their strategic choices and how they connect with one another. Describing a strategy favors complexity, but executing it requires simplicity. To influence day-to-day activities, strategies need to be simple enough for leaders at every level of the organization to understand, communicate, and remember — a strategy that gathers dust on a shelf is nothing more than an expensive bookend. A strategy for execution must provide concrete guidance while leaving managers with enough flexibility to seize novel opportunities, mitigate unexpected risks, and adapt to local conditions. The act of codifying past choices into an explicit strategy, moreover, reinforces historical commitments and locks a company into inertia. Complex strategies, particularly those that include detailed plans, tend to be long on guidance but short on flexibility.

. (bushes)

Vidinhas e confusão

Este tweet merece reflexão:

Shocking: Most leadership teams disagree on top priorities! https://t.co/eeSQeZLspt via @mitsmr pic.twitter.com/fwpnGcO3u5

— Alex Osterwalder🇨🇭 (@AlexOsterwalder) November 12, 2017

Antes de começarem a disparar metam na cabeça que isto é o resultado de um inquérito que não foi feito em Portugal, escusam, portanto, de começar a insultar os empresários e gestores portugueses:

"Align the top team. Unfortunately, lack of agreement on company objectives is fairly common among top teams. As part of our research on strategy execution, we surveyed more than 10,000 managers across more than 400 organizations. When asked how closely members of their company’s top executive team agreed on key priorities, nearly one-third said senior executives focused on their own agendas or that there were clear factions within the top team.
.
The reality is actually worse than the survey results suggest. In addition to asking senior executives if they agree on the company’s priorities, we asked them to list their company’s key priorities over the next few years. In the typical company, barely half of the executives voiced the same company-wide priorities. Indeed, in terms of shared strategic priorities, we found that two-thirds of the top executives were on the same page in just 27% of the companies we studied — hardly a recipe for successful execution."

 Numa primeira abordagem podemos pensar que em Portugal o problema é menos grave porque as empresas são em regra mais pequenas. No entanto, isto não é só gerado pela dimensão das empresas:

• poderes fácticos com as suas agendas particulares; e
• objectivos que não são comunicados, não são definidos, não são co-construídos.

Fico a pensar que isto são uma espécie de sintomas associados a doenças de gestão de países mais evoluídos. A verdade é que em muitas PME não são comunicados os objectivos porque, em primeiro lugar, eles não são definidos.

Micro e macro economia

Interessante esta evolução:

"Under Armour, which has been seen as the biggest up-and-comer in the athletic gear and apparel industry, is finding itself on a new and confounding playing field these days. On Monday, the company reported a decline in sales and slashed its full-year sales forecast for the second time in three months. Shares took a hard tumble, falling more than 15% in early trading.
.
This is Under Armour’s first quarterly sales drop since it went public in 2005, a development that’s renewed concerns that the company might need to streamline its focus.
.
Two issues are dogging the company: Continued weakness in North America—traditionally one of Under Armour’s strongest markets—and stronger performances from its competitors.
.
“Fundamentals at Under Armour continue to erode,” said Tom Nikic, an analyst for Wells Fargo & Co., in a note to clients. “The deteriorating North American athletic market appears to have been the primary culprit.”"

Conjugada com:

"Clearly I'm not the only person who loves their product: 2017 sales are up by triple digits, their women's line has taken off, and Vuori has landed shelf space with retailers like REI, Fred Segal, Equinox, and Paragon Sports."

Duas notas:

• certamente que há efeitos macroeconómicos na microeconomia mas sinto que são menos frequentes do que aquilo que é comum pensar. Sinto que se deve investir mais na análise da situação particular de uma empresa, e da sua relação com as suas partes interessadas para perceber o que se passa;
• se calhar, o retalho tradicional vai ter de se habituar a criar espaços para marcas novas para atrair pessoas, mas essas marcas novas não podem ser só mudança de logotipo, têm de fazer uma diferença

Trecho inicial retirado de "Under Armour Is Struggling. Here's Why"

Segundo trecho retirado de "This Activewear Startup Did the Impossible: Design Products Even the Fashion-Challenged Love"

BTW, em "A macro economy as an ecology of plans" de Richard E. Wagner, publicado Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 82 (2012) 433–444:

"Despite numerous particular differences among those theorists, they all operate under the shared presumption that macro phenomena are scaled-up versions of micro phenomena: macro is micro addressed in a loud voice. Where micro theory refers to demand and supply functions for individual services, macro theory refers to demand and supply functions for output as a whole.
...
The relationship between micro and macro is no longer a simple matter of aggregation, recognizing also that aggregation is impossible in the presence of heterogeneity in any case. This paper approaches non-scalability by treating a macro economy as an ecology of plans. Micro entities form plans and act on them. A macro economy, however, is not an aggregate of plans but is an ecology of plans.
The difference between an aggregate and an ecology resides in unplanned and unintended interactions among plans that are part of the ecology and which are absent in the aggregate. An aggregate is of the same order of complexity as the entities that comprise the aggregate; an ecology is of a higher order of complexity than the entities that comprise the ecology due to interactions among the elements of the ecology. Within an ecology, the same micro units can generate different macro patterns in response to different patterns of connection among the micro units. With a macro economy as an ecology of plans, the macro characteristics of the ecology emerge through interaction among micro units and their plans of action.
...
Within an emergent or ecological orientation, there is no reduction of macro to micro through basing theories on averages or representative agents, ... Outliers have significant analytical work to do when the characteristics of the population of interacting agents cannot be reduced to a typical or representative interaction. ... “The macroeconomy supervenes on the microeconomy but is not reducible to it.” To theorize about macro phenomena is to theorize about objects that emerge through interaction among entities at the micro level of action. In consequence, the macro level is the arena of spontaneous ordering and unseen hands while the micro level is the locus of intentional planning and action. A macro economy is thus a complex ecology of evolving plans that constitute a non-equilibrium process of spontaneous ordering.
...
the entire population of micro agents, along with the patterns by which they are connected, and not just some measure of central tendency, is relevant for the macro-level properties of the emergent order."

Estratégia como uma hipótese

Primeiro esta grande verdade:

Any strategy is (at best) only temporarily correct.

— Clayton Christensen (@claychristensen) May 8, 2017

As estratégias são sempre transientes, são sempre transitórias, mesmo quando funcionam.

E ainda esta outra verdade:

In business strategy the new game begins before the old game is over.

— Clayton Christensen (@claychristensen) July 27, 2017

Por isso, fico sempre doente quando vejo empresas que mantêm a mesma estratégia ano após ano.

"A estratégia que a empresa quer seguir é uma hipótese;
Uma hipótese é uma hipótese, é uma teoria, é uma aposta, precisamos de um teste para ver se a hipótese está a resultar - daí os indicadores;
A execução da estratégia, a implementação da hipótese, implica mudanças, transformações na forma de trabalhar - iniciativas estratégicas. Há coisas que teremos de deixar de fazer, há coisas que teremos de começar a fazer e há coisas que teremos de fazer melhor." (daqui)

Uma estratégia é sempre transitória porque a realidade nunca está parada e o que resulta hoje deixa de resultar amanhã.

"An alternative perspective on strategy and execution — one that we argue is more in tune with the nature of value creation in a world marked by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) — conceives of strategy as a hypothesis rather than a plan. Like all hypotheses, it starts with situation assessment and analysis — strategy’s classic tools. Also like all hypotheses, it must be tested through action. With this lens, encounters with customers provide data that is of ongoing interest to senior executives — vital inputs to dynamic strategy formulation. We call this approach “strategy as learning,” which contrasts sharply with the view of strategy as a stable, analytically rigorous plan for execution in the market. Strategy as learning is an executive activity characterized by ongoing cycles of testing and adjusting, fueled by data that can only be obtained through execution."

Gosto desta abordagem porque recordo, quer o mapa de Weick quer o Livro do Eclesiastes. Ter um mapa, uma hipótese, no qual se acredita mas com uma dose de desconfiança.

Trechos retirados de "Your Strategy Should Be a Hypothesis You Constantly Adjust"

Formação sem CAP? Um horror!

Na passada quinta-feira despedi-me de uma empresa com uma conversa que começou ainda à volta da mesa e prolongou-se pelo corredor, uma conversa sobre os registos da formação. Representante da empresa dizia-me que todos os anos registavam nos inquéritos oficiais e nos relatórios sociais zero horas de formação, quando na verdade a empresa dá muita formação.

Segundo essa representante só é reconhecida a formação que é dada por formadores com certificado de aptidão profissional (CAP). Quando a empresa manda trabalhadores ao estrangeiro para aprender como se trabalha com uma nova máquina, por exemplo, como não há CAP não há formação "oficial". Acho que há aqui algo de errado na interpretação da lei mas como isto se passa em Portugal é bem provável que a pior interpretação seja a que respeita o espírito da lei.

Quando facilito o desenvolvimento do balanced scorecard de uma empresa, na base do mapa da estratégia costumam aparecer aqueles dois objectivos estratégicos da figura, o R1 e o R4:

Foi deles que me lembrei ao ler "Corporate Learning Programs Need to Consider Context, Not Just Skills":

"to enable strategy execution, learning departments need to reorient from what they’re trying to teach to where these things show up in the work.
.
Organizations need to retool learning, changing it from an obsession on individually focused and content-driven events to learning that is deeply contextual, social, and embedded into real work. Learning needs to be built into how power really works within organizations, organized around peer power, functional power, and hierarchical power.
.
Learning with Peers Happens Through Routines.
People work in context with others. They create social norms, they dictate the unspoken standards, they define whom to collaborate with and whom to avoid, and they decide how much risk to take. All of this is done in “tribes” of employees, beyond the purview of head office. We need learning departments brave enough to move toward social learning through the routines of these tribes and away from the hegemony of abstract competencies and capabilities.
...
Routines are the regular social events that occur that can be seen to differentiate the best performers from average ones in any discrete population within an organization. Competencies tend to cluster in routines. Learning needs to recast its approach by focusing deeply on this context, and not by teaching new content and abstraction.
...
We think of learning as something that requires academic expertise and new models, [Moi ici: Pelos vistos em Portugal requer CAP] but organizations teach all the time.
...
Instead of owning programs and abstracted learning initiatives that most people in the organization treat as recess from work, the most effective learning organizations collaborate with these powerful functions to integrate organizational learning into their processes and practices. [Moi ici: Recordar "Como o tempo me veio dar razão" e o final de "Formação e competência na futura ISO 9001:2008"]

...
E agora especificamente acerca daquele R4 da figura:

"Learning Among Leaders Happens Through Dialogue.
Your leaders teach every day; they’re just not aware they are teaching. Leaders wield power in organizations, but that power often involves perpetuating the status quo. If left to their own devices, they will present whatever strategy material was given to them, ask if there are questions, and move on to the things that really matter. This approach doesn’t help organizations make improvements in strategy execution.
.
In a number of organizations, we’ve focused intensely on enabling leader-led learning. To be clear, our approaches are not your parents’ “leader-led learning” of 65 PowerPoint slides covered in 60 minutes. Most people in organizations need to be woken up and provoked to share fresh stories and ideas in the context of their real work. One of the keys is building leaders that provoke the right dialogue.
...
The focus of these sessions was not on content; it was on helping the leader connect differently with their teams and allowing the team to share their insights about what was really happening. New content was in these sessions, but it was camouflaged — it was just part of tackling and looking at real challenges, together, in new ways.
...
People are trapped in organizations, and they learn from the status quo, every day. They react to power in isolated bubbles with familiar populations around known problems. Organizations need to shift from focusing on the traditional content-driven approach of corporate learning to focusing on the context of learning in organizations. [Moi ici: E sem CAP] People are smart — if you give them the right bread crumbs, they’ll find the right way. It is the job of corporate learning to lay out and enable the right bread crumbs."

Para reflexão

"Pricing is an important and largely neglected tool in industrial marketing—on average, a 5% price increase leads to a 22% improvement in operating profits—far more than other tools of operational management.
...
Consumers show little interest in prices of goods purchased. Managers have a general tendency to believe that price is an important issue for customers. Research, however, has shown that customers are frequently unaware of prices paid and that price is one of the least important purchase criteria for them.
.
Impact of price on profitability is high. Finally, the impact of even small increases in price on profitability by far exceeds the impact of other levers of operational management.
...
Are customers really as price sensitive as commonly believed?...
investigated the importance of price for industrial goods in a survey involving purchasing and sales managers of 200 companies. They found that purchasing managers ranked product attributes as the most important criteria, then service attributes, and finally, price as the least important criterion. Sales managers, by contrast, ranked price much higher in what they perceived to be the most important purchasing criteria of their customers, indicating how weak their understanding of the critical purchasing criteria of their customers was.
...
A price increase of 10% led to a volume decrease of less than 3%, suggesting that customers show little sensitivity to price increases.
In conclusion, it seems that managers, as price setters, have a general tendency to overestimate the importance of price for actual and potential customers."

Trechos retirados de "Towards value-based pricing—An integrative framework for decision making" de Andreas Hinterhuber, publicado por Industrial Marketing Management 33 (2004) 765–778

"It's priceless"

"The engineering mindset tells us that all that matters is what's under the surface, the measurable performance.
.
Designers know that perception is at least as valuable.[Moi ici: E à medida que nos entranhamos em Mongo acredito que essa percepção vai aumentar de valor]
.
Symbolic acts are rarely cheap or wasted if they work. Because we're story-telling creatures, and symbols are clues about which story we ought to tell ourselves.
.
Symbolism isn't cheap. It's priceless."

Trecho retirado de "Cheap symbolism"

Sem escolhas não há estratégia

"Many strategy execution processes fail because the firm does not have something worth executing.
...
One major reason for the lack of action is that “new strategies” are often not strategies at all. A real strategy involves a clear set of choices that define what the firm is going to do and what it’s not going to do. Many strategies fail to get implemented, despite the ample efforts of hard-working people, because they do not represent a set of clear choices.
...
Execution involves change. Embrace it."

Trechos retirados de "Many Strategies Fail Because They’re Not Actually Strategies"

Deixem o capitalismo funcionar!

Ontem no Twitter alguém criticava Trump por ter dito uma barbaridade, acerca das exportações serem boas e as importações serem pecaminosas. Comentei dizendo que quase todos os meses é comum ouvir políticos portugueses de todas as cores, da situação e da oposição, dizerem o mesmo e ninguém estranha.

E é isso, há coisas que se dizem e publicam e que ninguém estranha, apesar de não resistirem a uma simples análise acerca da sua razoabilidade. Por exemplo, "De plus en plus d'agriculteurs bio en situation de détresse".

Agricultores lançam-se na produção bio, têm custos de produção superiores e recorrem a apoios do Estado francês. Agora que o Estado resolve cortar esses apoios protestam.

"ont des coûts de production supérieurs à ceux de l'agriculture conventionnelle, liés notamment à plus de main d'oeuvre. Et, même en vendant leurs produits un peu plus cher que les produits non bio, sans les aides de l'Etat, ils ont beaucoup de mal à s'en sortir...
.
Une situation aberrante alors que la demande des citoyens en produits bio progresse chaque année en moyenne de 10% (+20% entre 2015 et 2016). Préservation de l'eau et de la biodiversité, régénération des terres agricoles, préservation de la santé, et créations d'emplois,... les services rendus par l'agriculture biologique à la société dans son ensemble sont nombreux et méritent d'être reconnus. Alors pourquoi ne pas plus l'aider à se développer ? Les agriculteurs bio voient dans cette suppression de l'aide au maintien un manque de reconnaissance pour tous ces effets positifs. Et beaucoup d'agriculteurs qui envisageaient de se convertir au bio finissent par changer d'avis. Malheureusement."

Recordo um tweet que favoritei recentemente:

Capitalism offers a perfect solution for this problem. Raise wages. https://t.co/P4hAOXdYGq

— Nick Hanauer (@NickHanauer) November 5, 2017

Portanto, a procura por produtos agrícolas bio cresce a 20% em França, o Estado francês resolve cortar os apoios aos agricultores bio e estes não podem subir preços? Por que é que têm de ser todos os contribuintes a financiar o consumo da fatia que prefere produtos bio? Fatia que deve ser a que tem mais rendimentos, muito provavelmente? Por que é que não deixam o capitalismo funcionar? Por que é que têm de meter a catequese ao barulho?

Entretanto, na mesma França e no mesmo sector, sublinho esta outra postura, "Des agriculteurs rachètent une grande surface pour vendre leur production":

"Des agriculteurs du Grand Est ont racheté une grande surface, un ancien Lidl. Implanté à Colmar ce commerce est particulier car on y pratique la vente directe, ce qui n existe pas dans les supermarchés classiques. Il est géré par les paysans qui chaque semaine apportent leurs produits locaux plus variés qu'ailleurs.
....
En vendant maintenant directement leur productions, ils ont retrouvé une certaine liberté 
Ils n'ont plus à se soumettre aux conditions de plus en plus restrictives des grandes surfaces qui ne veulent que des "produits calibrés et standardisés". Ils mettent ainsi sur les étales  une plus grande variétés de produits. Denis Digel cultive 35 sortes de tomates, mais les supermarchés ne « lui en prenaient que deux sortes » !"

Pessoalmente compro ovos bio e sem factura (take that AT)
Pessoalmente compro alguns produtos agrícolas bio e sei que são mais caros que os convencionais.

Mais do que eventos (parte II)

Parte I.

Imaginem a produção de uma linha de fabrico ao longo de um mês (com dois turnos).

A amarelo, o tipo de produto produzido naquele turno (há produtos mais fáceis de produzir do que outros, há produtos com falhas da fase de concepção que nunca foram corrigidos na fase de industrialização).

A verde, as avarias que ocorreram na linha.

A azul, os turnos em que a produção foi afectada pela falta de pessoal (pessoas que resolveram faltar sem aviso prévio e que, por isso, não puderam ser substituídas)

A laranja, os turnos em que a produção foi afectada por falta de matéria-prima (fornecedores e/ou subcontratados) atrasaram-se na entrega de material para produções previstas.

Muita gente tem tendência a olhar para cada um destes eventos como o assunto, como o desafio, como a preocupação. Eu, recordo Juran e concentro a atenção nos problemas crónicos:

Melhoria a sério só acontece quando atacamos os problemas crónicos. Não adianta olhar para cada um dos eventos isoladamente, não adianta culpabilizar um trabalhador porque faltou sem avisar, ou um subcontratado porque não cumpriu uma promessa. O que é que no meu sistema permite e até fomenta este tipo de comportamentos?

Lembrei-me agora de um tweet que vi esta manhã:

As escolas fazem concursos com valores ridiculamente baixos por refeição e depois ficam surpreendidos com os resultados

— Jorge Silva (@JSnotario) November 9, 2017

Melhorar as hipóteses de execução

Um texto interessante e a merecer reflexão, "Is Execution Where Good Strategies Go to Die?"

"what determines whether execution brings life or death to your strategy? It’s not what you think. It’s how you think. The mental models that inform strategy are usually different from those that determine implementation. To close the strategy-execution gap, leaders have to close several other, smaller gaps.
.
First, the thinking styles of the people who create strategy are often different from those of the people who implement it.
...
strategy is usually developed by people who have a big-picture orientation, while execution is often done by those with a detail orientation. Furthermore, strategy is usually done by people who are focused on ideas and connections, while implementation is done by those who focus on process and action.
...
The second gap is a result of the connection between participation and ownership. ... Often stakeholders are kept out of the strategy process out of concern that they will slow things down or compromise the quality of the outcome. But this is a shortsighted view. By involving stakeholders earlier, you give them a sense of ownership that speeds things up when it comes time for execution. Furthermore, the evidence suggests that diversity will actually improve the quality of the strategy. And it’s far more likely the strategy will stick to its flight plan, because those responsible for its execution will have a stake in defending it.
...
The third gap between strategy and execution is in the narrative around the strategy. The strategy itself may be sound, but what matters for execution isn’t what is said but what is heard. Strategy is inherently about creating something new or getting somewhere new. But the way humans are wired, it’s difficult to process something that is completely unrelated to what we already know. A good narrative helps people move from the past to the future.
...
The fourth gap between strategy and execution is in measurement and metrics. [Moi ici: Isto para um praticante e adepto do balanced scorecard não tem espinhas ...] This, too, is a reflection of mental models. You only measure what you can see. And your mental models determine what is visible or invisible. I consistently see measurement as an afterthought in strategy development. The assumption is that financial measures like cost and revenue are sufficient metrics to measure progress. But that would be like a coach only tracking points on the scoreboard. You need metrics that tell you how well your game plan is being executed — metrics that all of your players can organize around.
...
Execution doesn’t have to be the place good strategies go to die. As you are developing your strategy, take into account the thinking styles and mental models of the people who will be responsible for its execution. Involve them to generate a sense of ownership and to tap into their collective wisdom. Craft a narrative that connects the past to the future. And design metrics that focus attention and motivate behavior around what will really make the strategy successful."

Heterogeneidade da procura e idiossincrasia da oferta

A propósito da minha paixão pela heterogeneidade da procura e pela idiossincrasia das empresas:

"Demand heterogeneity...
The degree of heterogeneity in consumer preferences is characterized by the extent to which customers differ in their preference orderings and budget constraints, which in turn determines the extent to which more than one offer can succeed in a given market.
...
we may observe some heterogeneity among these consumers with regards to budget constraints and performance requirements. This explains why some customers prefer high-end to low-end products derived from the old technology. The rise of a new dominant technology does not change these relationships—consumers in the home market still prefer the old technology to the previous alternatives, and still have the same heterogeneity in budget and performance requirements.
...
Revealing latent heterogeneity
.
Although the new technology does not itself change consumers’ preferences, its very emergence can act to reveal previously hidden differences in consumers’ preferences.
...
heterogeneity is revealed by differences in observed choices. Choices, in turn, are bounded by choice sets. When a new technology offers a new attribute bundle, it presents consumers with new couplings and de-couplings of attributes. This expands the choice set in which consumer preferences can be observed and the dimensions along which heterogeneity can be parsed, which, in turn, can be used to identify new niches within the existing market.
...
Retrenching in a revealed niche
.
Losing the mainstream of the market need not be a signal of the impending loss of the entirety of the market.
...
While it is possible that all consumers in the market uniformly prefer the new technology to the old, there are several drivers of variance that may lead parts of the market to continue to prefer the old technology to the new. This variance can be rooted in budget constraints, such that some consumers may prefer the new technology on a pure performance basis, but nonetheless choose the old technology on a price/performance basis
...
By revealing latent heterogeneity in the market, the introduction of the new technology exposes new lines of segmentation—niche opportunities within a market that previously had been regarded as homogenous. Within these niches, the old technology can maintain a sustainable advantage over the new technology. Exploiting this heterogeneity, however, entails redefining the size and composition of the market, and retrenching into the revealed niche.
It also entails a complete inversion of strategic imperatives: for racing firms, the key question is: “What new attributes and performance does the new technology address, and how can I make up for it to maintain relevance in the market?” For retrenching firms, the key question is: “What old attributes and performance did the new technology reveal by not addressing them, and how can I exploit this to create a sustainable niche?”"

Trechos retirados de "Old technology responses to new technology threats: demand heterogeneity and technology retreats" de Ron Adner e Daniel Snow, publicado em 2010 por Industrial and Corporate Change, Volume 19, Number 5, pp. 1655–1675

Mais do que eventos

"In his book Out of the Crisis, W. Edwards Deming wrote: “A fault in the interpretation of observations, seen everywhere, is to suppose that every event (defect, mistake, accident) is attributable to someone (usually the one nearest at hand), or is related to some special event. The fact is that most troubles with service and production lie in the system.”
“We shall speak of faults of the system as common causes of trouble, and faults from fleeting events as special causes,” he wrote. “Confusion between common causes and special causes leads to frustration of everyone, and leads to greater variability and higher costs, exactly contrary to what is needed. I should estimate that in my experience most troubles and most possibilities for improvement add up to proportions something like this: 94% belong to the system (responsibility of management), 6% special.”
Control charts offer the study of variation and its source over time."

Que bom voltar a encontrar este trecho do grande Deming. Vejo tão pouca gente fora da indústria automóvel a usar o poder das cartas de controlo...

Vejo tão pouca gente fora da indústria automóvel a olhar para lá da camada superficial dos eventos e a mergulhar nos comportamentos e no sistema.

Não há acasos!

Por cá, o fragilismo faz o seu percurso natural, "E se Centeno não for tão bom a baixar o défice como parece?". Basta ler este trecho:

"O ministro das Finanças argumenta que os mercados validam a sua estratégia."

Entretanto, esta semana já li:

• Alemanha está a preparar queda da Europa, segundo cronista do Guardian (não se iludam com o título, se calhar maldosamente plantado - o que faz um país não fragilista? Faz cenários e testa a sua robustez e procura minimizar riscos)
• Germany’s Economic Strength Lays Ground for Reforms, Says Advisers 

Só temos as consequências do que fazemos, não há acasos!

Deixar de ser Vítima (coitadinho)

Quantas vezes ao longo dos anos escrevi aqui sobre o locus de controlo interno e externo?

Ontem encontrei este texto, "Are You a Victim or a Transformer?"

"changing our mindset from ‘Victim’ to ‘Transformer’. With the Victim mindset “we give in to the constraint and the only option is to scale back our ambition”. When we are in Neutraliser mode, “we start to see ways around our targets – looking for workarounds or shortcuts”. However, it is only with a Transformer mindset that, in the words of Morgan and Franco, we begin to see any constraint as “pregnant with opportunity… a springboard for a new way to deliver our ambition”. Therefore what becomes both important and useful for leaders to understand is where their teams sit on the Victim-to-Transformer axis when confronted by thorny challenges.
...
[Moi ici: A seguir, um pouco de esperança] The Victim mentality is not necessarily a personality trait, or something fixed in stone forever. Typically, we go on a journey from left to right. The natural reaction when faced by a constraint is to feel ‘victimised’, but whether you then progress to the status of Neutraliser and Transformer will partly depend on your appetite for battle."

Cuidado com as cópias

Para os que se sentem tentados a seguir o canto das sereias e acham que as palavras de um anónimo da província não são de confiar:

"Agora imaginem PME a tentarem copiar as actuações estratégicas de empresas grandes porque aparecem nas revistas, nos jornais, porque são comentadas, porque ..."

Ou ainda: "lab or a factory"; "Guterres e a tralha salazarista: reflexão para as PMEs" e "Pensamento contrário".

Recomendo a leitura de "Don’t be fooled by success":

"Imitating successful competitors can be surprisingly misleading and ineffective
...
The most successful firms in your industry probably just got lucky
...
Focusing on short-term wins can have negative long-term effects years later"

Web Summit? Contrarian

Quem haveria de dizer!!!

Um velho tema deste blogue, quando o mundo muda, talvez a solução para uma PME não passe por ir atrás mas por mudar de mercado. Recordar:

• Têxteis produzidos em países de mão-de-obra cara (Julho de 2011)
• Mais duendes (Abril de 2014)
• Para reflexão (Abril de 2015)
• Estratégia e pontos fortes, o ovo ou a galinha (Setembro de 2015)
• Subir na escala da abstracção (parte II) (Dezembro de 2015)
• Ofertas antigas e mercados novos (Julho de 2016)

Li "Old technology responses to new technology threats: demand heterogeneity and technology retreats" de Ron Adner e Daniel Snow, publicado em 2010 por Industrial and Corporate Change, Volume 19, Number 5, pp. 1655–1675 e sublinhei:

"We explore the implications of a real and common alternative to attempting the transformation required to embrace a new, dominant, technology—the choice to maintain focus on the old technology. In considering this choice, we distinguish between “racing” strategies, which attempt to fight off the rise of the new technology by extending the performance of the old technology, and “retreat” strategies, which attempt to accommodate the rise of the new technology by repositioning the old technology in the demand environment. [Moi ici: O nosso clássico exemplo da artesã de Bragança] Underlying our arguments is the observation that the emergence of a new technology does more than just create a substitute threat—it can also reveal significant underlying heterogeneity in the old technology’s broader demand environment. This heterogeneity is a source of opportunities that can support a new position for the old technology, in either the current market or a new one. Using this lens, we explore the decision to stay with the old technology as a rational, proactive choice rather than as a mark of managerial and organizational failure.
...
Implicit in many studies, and explicit in many others, is the assumption that the “correct” incumbent response to technological change is to embrace its inevitability. Much of the literature has focused on the timing and means by which firms make the jump from the old technology to the new.
...
In reality, the economy is full of firms that soldier on with an old technology long after the rise of a dominant substitute. Pagers persist today as messaging devices for emergency services, long after the arrival of mobile phones. Audio tape sales have not been eliminated by the rise of the compact disc. Semiconductor manufacturing technologies three and four generations behind the frontier continue to be purchased and used.
...
In this article, we explore the implications of a real and common alternative to attempting the transformation required to embrace a new, dominant, technology— the choice to maintain a focus on the old technology. In considering this choice, we distinguish between “racing” strategies, which attempt to fight off the rise of the new technology by extending the performance of the old technology, and two distinct “retreat” strategies, which attempt to accommodate the rise of the new technology by repositioning the old technology in the demand environment, either by retrenching into a niche position within the old technology’s home market, or by relocating the old technology into a new market application. Underlying our arguments is the observation that the emergence of a new technology does more than just create a substitute threat—it can also reveal significant underlying heterogeneity in the old technology’s broader demand environment. Exploiting this revealed heterogeneity can allow the firm to create a new, more sustainable, position for the old technology in the face of competition from the new technology.
...
We explore the decision to stay with the old technology as a rational, proactive choice rather than as a mark of managerial and organizational failure. To be clear, we do not suggest that foregoing the new should be regarded as the dominant strategy for dealing with technological change. We do, however, argue that it is often a viable though neglected option, and hence merits explicit consideration."

"estamos na eterna repetição do mesmo"

“To deal with reality you must first recognize it as such.”

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) November 7, 2017

"Quando partidos que não querem mudar se prestam a ser apoios de partidos que não podem mudar, forma-se uma plataforma política incongruente: pode ocupar o poder, mas não pode governar, pode esconder o passado, mas não pode reformar o presente e clarificar o futuro. Há partidos que gostariam de mudar, mas não sabem como, porque as questões que terão para resolver quando voltarem ao poder serão as mesmas (ou mais graves) que enfrentaram quando estiveram no poder.
...
tem de se reconhecer que não se aprendeu nada e não se esqueceu nada - estamos na eterna repetição do mesmo."

Trechos retirados de "Não aprender nem esquecer"