domingo, novembro 12, 2017

Micro e macro economia

Interessante esta evolução:
"Under Armour, which has been seen as the biggest up-and-comer in the athletic gear and apparel industry, is finding itself on a new and confounding playing field these days. On Monday, the company reported a decline in sales and slashed its full-year sales forecast for the second time in three months. Shares took a hard tumble, falling more than 15% in early trading.
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This is Under Armour’s first quarterly sales drop since it went public in 2005, a development that’s renewed concerns that the company might need to streamline its focus.
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Two issues are dogging the company: Continued weakness in North America—traditionally one of Under Armour’s strongest markets—and stronger performances from its competitors.
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“Fundamentals at Under Armour continue to erode,” said Tom Nikic, an analyst for Wells Fargo & Co., in a note to clients. “The deteriorating North American athletic market appears to have been the primary culprit.”"
Conjugada com:
"Clearly I'm not the only person who loves their product: 2017 sales are up by triple digits, their women's line has taken off, and Vuori has landed shelf space with retailers like REI, Fred Segal, Equinox, and Paragon Sports."
Duas notas:

  • certamente que há efeitos macroeconómicos na microeconomia mas sinto que são menos frequentes do que aquilo que é comum pensar. Sinto que se deve investir mais na análise da situação particular de uma empresa, e da sua relação com as suas partes interessadas para perceber o que se passa;
  • se calhar, o retalho tradicional vai ter de se habituar a criar espaços para marcas novas para atrair pessoas, mas essas marcas novas não podem ser só mudança de logotipo, têm de fazer uma diferença


Trecho inicial retirado de "Under Armour Is Struggling. Here's Why"

Segundo trecho retirado de "This Activewear Startup Did the Impossible: Design Products Even the Fashion-Challenged Love"

BTW, em "A macro economy as an ecology of plans" de Richard E. Wagner, publicado Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 82 (2012) 433–444:
"Despite numerous particular differences among those theorists, they all operate under the shared presumption that macro phenomena are scaled-up versions of micro phenomena: macro is micro addressed in a loud voice. Where micro theory refers to demand and supply functions for individual services, macro theory refers to demand and supply functions for output as a whole.
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The relationship between micro and macro is no longer a simple matter of aggregation, recognizing also that aggregation is impossible in the presence of heterogeneity in any case. This paper approaches non-scalability by treating a macro economy as an ecology of plans. Micro entities form plans and act on them. A macro economy, however, is not an aggregate of plans but is an ecology of plans.
The difference between an aggregate and an ecology resides in unplanned and unintended interactions among plans that are part of the ecology and which are absent in the aggregate. An aggregate is of the same order of complexity as the entities that comprise the aggregate; an ecology is of a higher order of complexity than the entities that comprise the ecology due to interactions among the elements of the ecology. Within an ecology, the same micro units can generate different macro patterns in response to different patterns of connection among the micro units. With a macro economy as an ecology of plans, the macro characteristics of the ecology emerge through interaction among micro units and their plans of action.
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Within an emergent or ecological orientation, there is no reduction of macro to micro through basing theories on averages or representative agents, ... Outliers have significant analytical work to do when the characteristics of the population of interacting agents cannot be reduced to a typical or representative interaction. ... “The macroeconomy supervenes on the microeconomy but is not reducible to it.” To theorize about macro phenomena is to theorize about objects that emerge through interaction among entities at the micro level of action. In consequence, the macro level is the arena of spontaneous ordering and unseen hands while the micro level is the locus of intentional planning and action. A macro economy is thus a complex ecology of evolving plans that constitute a non-equilibrium process of spontaneous ordering.
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the entire population of micro agents, along with the patterns by which they are connected, and not just some measure of central tendency, is relevant for the macro-level properties of the emergent order."

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