As exportações e os fragilistas (parte II)

Parte I.
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Recordar a nossa opinião, expressa na parte I:

"A verdade é que Portugal mesmo agora não está a perder quota de mercado, está a ganhá-la em países muito exigentes em qualidade-preço-performance. Mesmo em Angola não é linear que esteja a perder quota de mercado."

Em sintonia perfeita com:

"Na verdade, neste mês de abril de 2016, as vendas para os países da UE cresceram 8,4% face ao mês homólogo do ano anterior.
...
Nesse âmbito, no que concerne especificamente às vendas para países da UE, face ao período homólogo do ano anterior, houve um crescimento de 5,1%, tendo passado de 3.667.353.322€ para 3.854.169.450€. Relativamente às exportações para fora da UE, tal como acima se avançou, houve uma queda de 29,4%, com um decréscimo de 1.352.177.524€ para 954.000.220€. Em termos globais, a queda foi de 4,2%, tendo decrescido de 5.019.530.856€ para 4.808.169.670€." 

Trechos retirados de "Exportações do setor metalúrgico e metalomecânico para os países da União Europeia mantêm trajetória ascendente"

Curiosidade do dia

Lembram-se das indignações sobre "País tem "cofres cheios", diz Maria Luís Albuquerque".
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"Juros de Portugal disparam na maior subida desde o “irrevogável”"
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"Centeno diz que cofres estão cheios para enfrentar Brexit"
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Recordar:

Desinvestir no futuro

Na economia da escola tio Patinhas em que vive Passos Coelho, ter os "cofres cheios" é um... http://t.co/OR6OsLidMX

— Joao Galamba (@Joaogalamba) March 23, 2015

@paulo_pinto Temos dívida de 130%/PIB mas os cofres cheios. Estamos muito melhor p/enfrentar a próx crise, não é? Pois. @Joaogalamba

— RuiMCB (@RuiMCB) May 11, 2015

O karma é tramado

ADENDA
Sobre esta cena dos cofres cheios, voltaremos a falar antes do Orçamento de 2017

Código na agricultura (parte II)

Parte I.

• Self-Driving Cars Are Coming, but Self-Driving Tractors Are Already Here
• Japan's Next Generation of Farmers Could Be Robots
• Farmer interest in digital agriculture technology experiencing 'extraordinary' growth this year
• Espaço aberto para inovações no campo

Qual é a lógica? (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"If you want to position yourself as a higher end brand or if you have slimmer margins, you may want to consider sticking to customer loyalty type offers rather than weekly sales. This helps increase the perceived value of your product and increase your average order value.
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One of the biggest problems with discounting is cutting into your bottom line.
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However, it’s important to consider if price is your only competitive advantage. The thing to keep in mind is that offering discounts is a form of selling on price. When you offer a discount, you are taking the focus from the value you provide and placing it squarely on your price.
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To maintain higher prices, you have to instead be adept at selling value. Discounts erode your ability to do that. Any reduction in prices can damage your price integrity. Later, getting the same customer to stop thinking about price and re-focus on value might be difficult."

Trechos retirados de "Should You Offer Discounts or Coupons?"

Porque falta a paciência estratégica

Há muitos anos que aqui no blogue escrevo sobre os gringos e a sua tradicional falta de paciência estratégica.

• O avatar
• Acerca da falta de paciência estratégica
• Mais produtividade não implica mais salário^
• Fazer o by-pass ao país

Agora, em "Beyond competitive advantage : how to solve the puzzle of sustaining growth while creating value" de Todd Zenger, encontro uma interessante justificação para isso:

"the primary path to value creation results from the creative, theory-building capacities of managers—those hired to see things investors often cannot.
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the CEO’s task is to make strategic choices that will maximize the firm’s long-run profitability, even if capital markets fail to see this value in the short run. After all, the CEO is hired to be smarter than investors. The challenge is convincing investors this is true—a task made all the more challenging because frequently it simply isn’t; sometimes managers’ theories are bad, aimed at building empires and not value.
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The quality of a corporate theory is massively difficult to assess—the product is a mere cognitive vision of a path to sustained value creation. A more difficult-to-evaluate product is hard to imagine; the true value is unknown even to the manager and is revealed only as “experiments” or strategic actions are pursued over a period of years. Accordingly, managers can all too easily disguise poor-quality theories as high-quality ones.
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managers are paid to know more than capital markets about the quality and future value of their theories, but they are often incapable of persuasively articulating that inherent future value. As a consequence, high-quality theories paradoxically may be discounted in capital markets, especially when they are difficult to evaluate.
The big problem with such discounting is that managers rely on capital markets for resources to pursue their corporate theories. Perceptions of low quality elevate financing costs. Moreover, managers’ compensation and continued employment typically depend on their capacity to generate market value in the present. Thus, this lemons problem leads to a strategic dilemma of massive significance. Managers may be tempted to pander to the beliefs and preferences of the capital markets rather than pursue the corporate theories that would maximize value for the firm.
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my experience suggests that managers generally do face a real dilemma as they craft and then sell their corporate theories to capital markets. They can choose simple, familiar strategies that are easy for capital markets to decipher or they can choose complex, unfamiliar, or unique ones based on theories that are difficult toevaluate. In the latter case, valuation is costly, prone to error, and likely leads to a discount in the market.
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four types of corporate theories that differ along two dimensions: quality and ease of evaluation. Type I theories—theories that are of high quality and easily evaluated—are clearly the preferred choice. However, such theories are unlikely to exist in great abundance since, as discussed, good theories are unique—and unique seldom means easy to evaluate. Type IV theories—theories that are of low quality and relatively opaque—are clearly to be avoided. The majority of options, however, are likely to be type II—theories that are lower in quality and therefore long-term value, but are easily evaluated and therefore may maximize investors’ current value— or type III—theories of high quality that maximize long-term value but are difficult to evaluate and are therefore discounted in the present. The correct choice is by no means obvious.
...

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In capital markets, there are securities analysts who specialize in assessing the merits of each firm’s theory. Their task is to assemble information, monitor performance, and evaluate the quality and likely future performance of the theories that managers propose, as these provide information to investors through earnings forecasts and buy and sell recommendations.
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Analysts, like all individuals, seek to allocate their effort in ways that generate the best return on their time invested. Covering more firms expands order flow and reduces the costs spent per firm in analysis. But to economize on the effort expended per firm, and thereby cover more, analysts prefer firms that are easy to analyze— in other words, those pursuing theories that are familiar and simple.
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firms tend to reshape themselves through divestitures and spinoffs to essentially “match” the “categories” covered by analysts.
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We examined the impact of a strategy’s uniqueness on the level of coverage and the premium or discount that it received in capital markets. We assumed that the most valuable corporate theories are built around uniqueness: either unique foresight about the value of a strategic bundle of assets, or the possession of unique assets that preclude others from enjoying similar value as they pursue complementary assets.
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The bottom line is that this uniqueness paradox is pervasive even in the market for publicly traded firms. Choosing unique theories, which may maximize long-term value, will likely receive a discount in the present."

Assim, é natural que os incentivos para estratégias intuitivas, as baseadas no preço/custo, sejam a opção de base.

"Competir e ter sucesso no negócio do preço mais baixo não tem segredos, é a estratégia mais fácil e intuitiva de implementar."(fonte)

Agora, recordar o título, "Por que as grandes estratégias têm de ser fora da caixa"

A inovação não é a resposta para tudo

Escrevi este postal na madrugada de ontem. Depois, ao final da tarde, desafiaram-me para um projecto sobre: quando a inovação morre na praia.

"Too frequently, companies decide what they’re going to do before determining why they’re going to do it. That’s challenging, because developing innovations that have a lasting impact requires going beyond doing one single thing. Improving innovation is a system-level issue, requiring a coherent and consistent set of organizational interventions. [Moi ici: Recordar o problema dos que inovam produtos sem mudar de modelo de negócio - "Um conselho, um desafio" e "Uma aposta manca (parte I)"] To begin to determine what set of interventions makes the most sense for your company, first you need to step back and answer a fundamental question: What problem does innovation need to solve? The answer to this question matters substantially because it determines in which part of the organization a company needs to intervene, what resources leaders need to be ready to commit to, and how long it will take before any impact is felt.
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Finally, innovation is not a one-size-fits-all proposition. Leaders need to make the strategic choice: whether to isolate new growth efforts, infuse everyday innovation into daily routines or truly institutionalize innovation. Taking the time to determine which choice is appropriate for you will focus your attention and accelerate the impact of your subsequent innovation efforts."

Trechos retirados de "Innovation Isn’t the Answer to All Your Problems"

O fragilismo

O fragilismo espera sempre o melhor do futuro, não prevê sobressaltos. Acredita que os astros se vão alinhar em nosso favor, não vê necessidade de precaução, just in case.

Curiosidade do dia

Apesar da dupla Costa-Marcelo tentar convencer-nos da contaminação externa:

"A troika tem criticado as várias reversões efectuadas pelo Governo de António Costa e aproveita este relatório para voltar a lançar alertas sobre os efeitos destas políticas. Desta vez diz mesmo que a maior ameaça ao crescimento da economia portuguesa está nas políticas internas e não em factores externos.
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"Apesar de também existirem riscos para as perspectivas económicas no ambiente externo, estes são sobretudo internos e relacionados com a adequação das políticas domésticas", refere o comunicado."

Trecho retirado de "Políticas do Governo português são o principal risco para a retoma"

“plans are worthless, but planning is everything”

Um excelente artigo, "Strategic Plans Are Less Important than Strategic Planning", a esta hora estou numa empresa a lançar o pontapé de saída de um conjunto de iniciativas estratégicas, alinhadas com o mapa da estratégia. Os dois últimos slides são:

Chegámos à fase em que a transformação deliberada da empresa vai começar, com o desenvolvimento e implementação das iniciativas estratégicas. Cada iniciativa é como uma aposta num cavalo. Demos o nosso melhor mas podemos ter apostado no cavalo errado. Além disso, à medida que exercitamos a estratégia transforma-nos e começamos a ver oportunidades que antes não existiam ou nos estavam vedadas. Por uma razão e/ou pela outra podemos ser obrigados a mudar ou a ajustar a estratégia e as iniciativas

Recordar o tweet do @miguelppires.

"Think of the plan as a guidance tool. The problem for many managers is that their expectations are all skewed from what can be realistically achieved via a strategic plan. Their image is more of the house-plan type or travel itinerary. They anticipate that by doing the necessary analysis and writing down how their business will succeed the world will be converted from uncertain to certain. In their eyes the strategic plan becomes a device for control rather than one of guidance.
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Look for disagreements and toward the future. Even though your plan is liable to become immediately irrelevant, you still need to invest in writing it up.
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wasn’t advocating not having a plan to start with but that the plan itself and the planners needed to be flexible because it generates preparedness.
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Focus on the organization and key stakeholders, not individual actions. A plan can’t be “strategic” if it’s simply about action by individuals. While action is fundamental to implementation and success, there’s another level above that — the organization level.
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Assume the plan is a work in progress. A strategic plan is not a set-and-forget instrument. It’s a living and breathing document that guides decision making and helps marshal resources. When managers talk about “giving up on strategic planning” I suggest that they haven’t thought through how to keep their plan fresh. The fact that circumstances are changing rapidly is a very good reason to visit their plan regularly."

Parte V - A via da experiência ou a via do volume?

Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV.

"Big box retail stores are losing relevance, while e-commerce and specialty stores grow in appeal. People no longer want — or need — to shop as anonymous customers in large stores with shelves stocked high in aisle after aisle. As a result, big box retail must shift its strategy — from competing on access and selection to staging big experiences and providing big discounts.
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The shrinking demand for big box retail can be seen in the numerous store and company closures across several categories over the last decade.
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These large-store format companies are losing share to Amazon and other e-commerce sellers and to specialty retailers. The former are able to offer a wider selection than even the largest brick-and-mortar store can and their digital tools make it easy to navigate an otherwise overwhelming number of choices with ease, speed, and precision.
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The appeal of the latter is an edited, or even curated, selection of goods targeted to specific customers who self-select into shopping at the store — and these smaller stores often provide superior, personalized service. Not all specialty stores are thriving, but as a whole, the specialty segment of retail is growing while most other sectors have been on the decline.
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Big boxes can shift from being places to stock and sell goods and become venues to stage immersive, memorable, share-worthy experiences. While specialty stores might create an intimate or personal experience, large stores are conducive to experiential retailing that is communal and physical.
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An alternate route for big box retailers is to offer big discounts, using well-honed supply chain and analytics capabilities to offer high-demand products at low margins — with the immediacy and interactivity that e-commerce players can’t. Volume and velocity are required to make this model work"

Estas coisas devem dar um nó na cabeça dos académicos sempre à procura da solução correcta. Não há solução correcta! Não é um puzzle! Cada empresa é um caso, cada caso tem de ter a sua própria solução.

"So, dear politicians, please think first before you act"

Sempre que o mundo económico muda, os prejudicados aproximam-se do governo de turno com a mão estendida em busca de um apoio, de um subsídio, de uma protecção. E, quase sempre, o governo de turno resolve atrasar a mudança diminuindo os incentivos à transformação por parte dos coitadinhos dos prejudicados:

"a typical behavior of an industry under attack. Instead of changing their business model they attack somebody else. It is much easier to blame somebody else and play the victim instead of blaming oneself for not being innovative and for holding too long to a dated business model.
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Times have changed but the business models have not.  So, dear politicians, please think first before you act."

Recordar "Um perfil diferente"

Trechos retirados de "Who says paper is dead? business model innovation in the newspaper industry"

"Growth without profit is perilous"

1. "Bad customers drive out good customers.
2. He who liveth by the discount, shall ye also perish by the discount.
3. All measurements are judgments in disguise.
4. Ideas are always and everywhere more important than their mere execution.
5. Prescription before diagnosis is malpractice (First Law of Medicine: Do No Harm).[Moi ici: Ao ler esta primeira lei da medicina lembrei-me logo dos catequistas/fragilistas que não praticam a via negativa]"

...
[Moi ici: Segue-se um trecho em completo alinhamento com a mensagem deste blogue e com o nosso trabalho]1. Growth without profit is perilous..
We start with profitability, rather than revenue, because we are not interested in growth merely for the sake of growth - the ideology of the cancer cell. As many companies around the world have learned - some the hard way, such as the airlines, retailers, and automobile manufacturers - market share is not the open sesame to more profitability. We are interested in finding the right customer, at the right price, consistent with our purpose and values, even if that means frequently turning away customers.
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Adopting this belief means you need to become much more selective about whom you do business with; even though that marginal business may be “profitable” by conventional accounting standards. Very often the most important costs—and benefits, for that matter - do not ever show up on a profit-and-loss statement. There is such a thing as good and bad profits. Accepting customers who are not a good fit for your firm - either because of their personality or their unwillingness to appreciate your value - has many deleterious effects, such as negatively affecting team member morale, and committing fixed capacity to customers for whom you simply cannot create value. Growth without profit is perilous."

Trechos retirados de "Episode #97 - VeraSage Laws Part II"

Curiosidade do dia

Tudo dito:

"O que acontece e que tem de ser explicado, ou o que tem de ser antecipado para que não aconteça, ou o que tem de ser corrigido depois de ter acontecido não são produtos da sorte e do azar. Fracassos, falências, crises, são os resultados, naturais e previsíveis das acções dos que decidiram em função dos seus imaginários, dos seus interesses e das suas ilusões, que não tiveram a prudência de acautelar os equilíbrios de viabilidade no presente e de sustentabilidade no futuro.
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Os que compraram eleitores com promessas e ilusões difundiram a epidemia do imaginário, que prende agora eleitos e eleitores, economia e sociedade, num presente que nem tem futuro, nem quer compreender o que foi o seu passado."

Techo retirado de "A roda dos culpados"

Acerca do mundo das experiências

"Millennials are giving rise to a new concept: the "grocerant."
A grocerant is a grocery store that offers fresh, restaurant-quality prepared foods.
More and more grocery stores are morphing into grocerants and devoting a larger part of their space to prepared foods in a bid to attract more millennials.
Whole Foods' new chain of stores, 365 by Whole Foods Markets, is a perfect example of this trend. Most of the store is devoted to fresh food buffets and a variety of in-store restaurants.
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In-store dining and take-out of prepared foods from grocers has grown nearly 30% since 2008, and accounted for 2.4 billion food-service visits and $10 billion of consumer spending in 2015, according to the report."

Trechos retirados de "Millennials are abandoning restaurants for an unexpected place"

Agora, comparar com estes outros trechos:

"Debido a la caída de las ventas en los establecimientos de gran superficie, las cadenas de alimentación de Europa se han visto presionadas a entrar, muchas de ellas, en la competencia de precios ‘low cost’, así como a crecer dentro del comercio electrónico.
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Una de los principales motivos de esta situación es que los compradores europeos de alimentación cada vez evitan más las grandes superficies a favor de las compras online.
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Pese a que de momento la penetración del comercio electrónico es baja en el canal de alimentación, ya se ha registrado una caída continua de las ventas en los hipermercados."

E uma palavra sobre as experiências?
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Trechos retirados de "El rediseño del sector retail"

Para reflexão

"we could claim that organizations don't create value for the customers but the way customers uses the product create value.
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It is the experience of use that it is decisive.
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When we're drinking wine it is not only the product, the wine that we're drinking, it's also the restaurant setting that we're in, it's also the story, or the origin story of the wine, it's the interaction with the waiter who is telling about the wine, or the somellier and you ask questions and value is created through that interaction.
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You're talking about complementarities to the bottle of wine ... each and every product should link to something that complements it ... experiences, stories."

Quando no passado dia 13 de Junho passeei pelo Porto, visitei a loja de "A Vida Portuguesa", repleta de turistas. Ao dar de caras com esta caixa de lápis:

Reconheci logo os lápis que eu usava em 1970 na minha primeira classe. Depois, recordei um ou outro desenho da altura que fiz... e senti criar-se uma ligação com a criança que fui. Então, pensei, o que é que esta caixa de lápis diz aos turistas? Nada!
Talvez se pudesse criar uma "complementaridade" começando por enquadrar os lápis e referir que se trata da última fábrica de lápis da Península Ibérica. O mesmo que o somellier conta acerca do vinho.

"One interesting factor in all of this is that networks and the focus in interactions, it is now more expensive to internalize thank link and network. Is that mean that buildind large companies doesn«t make sense anymore?" [Moi ici: Eheheh! Conseguem adivinhar a resposta de Esko Kilpi?]

Empresas grandes são boas a extrair valor, empresas pequenas são boas a criar valor. Extrair trata do denominador. Criação trata do numerador.
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Evoluir da transacção para a interacção.
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Perceber que o essencial são relações.


Trechos retirados de "Esko Kilpi and the value of wine and interaction"

Mongo, turismo, economia das experiências e gentrificação no Porto

Mongo, turismo, economia das experiências e gentrificação (a quantidade de empresas tecnológicas, cada uma com dezenas de trabalhadores, situadas na Baixa) no Porto criam as condições para esta experiência: "Centro do Porto terá fábrica de cerveja com investimento de três milhões":

"O projeto, que se quer afirmar como uma “cervejeira regional”, vai criar 50 postos de trabalho ainda este ano e consistirá em juntar no mesmo edifício a fábrica, a cervejaria, uma loja, bar, restaurante e até os escritórios da administração,
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a Fábrica de Cervejas Portuense vai ter uma marca, “que a seu tempo será apresentada”, ambicionando lançar “mais de 100 tipos de cerveja” no longo prazo."

Como eu gosto destes paradoxos: as cervejeiras grandes numa guerra desenfreada pelo preço mais baixo, e a serem disrompidas, perdendo quota de mercado, por marcas mais pequenas e muito mais caras que apostam na experiência e na diferenciação para servir os underserved.
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Recordar:

• Paradigmático (Março de 2016)
• Mongo na cerveja (Outubro de 2015)
• "E se a causa-raiz não for o preço?" (Outubro de 2015)
• "I love this game" (Outubro de 2014)
• Agora vou especular (Novembro de 2007) 

Ponto-chave deste projecto? Referi-o em "Cuidado com o que os economistas aprenderam nos anos 50":

"Recordar a fábrica de Loulé e viram mesmo algo de interessante sair das mini-fábricas? Não basta a capacidade técnica e os euros quando não há paixão."

O dinheiro não é o mais importante (parte II)

Parte I.
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Já depois de ter escrito e publicado a parte I. Dou de caras com estes tweets:

Where I explain that "large" projects rarely start as "large" projects, but fractally grown https://t.co/IpPbXU8Kz2

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) June 21, 2016

Tinha de copiar este texto de Nassim Taleb no FB:

"I was at a venue where someone wanted to increase economic growth: "funding" and "investments" were mentioned every 240 characters.
Now some empiricism. Consider that almost all tech companies "in the tails" were not started by "funding". Take companies you are familiar with: Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook. These companies started with risk-taking. Funding came in small amounts, way later.
Now let us take the idea to its next logical step. The minute something called a "business plan" is created, the idea is corrupt and the BS start dominating. People start thinking in terms of other people's perception of the business, for "raising cash. Like prostitutes.
We can generalize to economic growth. The problem is that these discussions of "growth" are made by people who have never taken risks.[Moi ici: Vêm-me à memória de rajada, os nomes de Costa, Medina, Centeno e Caldeira que por estes dias andam entretidos a torrar dinheiro a brincar ás startups]
What is needed? 1) determination, 2) sophistication, 3) authenticity, 4) convexity and above all, 5) risk loving."[Moi ici: Na parte I elegi: 1e5paixão, 4experimentação, 2e3diferenciação e interacção]

O outro link, "Why Companies Fail & How To Prevent It" de Osterwalder tem um trecho bem interessante também:

"The reason why I point this out is because access to funding (in startups or established organizations) is often brought up as the key challenge in innovation or company building. However, The FRACTL study shows that money isn’t really the issue. In fact, the findings show that funded ventures (including those that raised $10 million USD or more) are more likely to run out of cash than bootstrapped ones. Why is that so? Because you are more likely to risk building something that nobody wants when you have the money to actually build it. Renowned venture capitalist Vinod Khosla famously argued that “people who raise more money reduce their probability of success”."[Moi ici: Relacionar com "Não será porque ..."]

BTW, recordar esta "Curiosidade do dia":

"Pensava que as startups tinham de tentar seduzir clientes e descobrir modelos de negócio com base em MVP. Afinal não, basta aderir a estas plataformas de apoio..." 

Curiosidade do dia

 Concluímos então que o Banco de Portugal é anti-austeridade e não vê qualquer necessidade de relacionar produtividade e salário:

"Subir Lall, que está em Portugal para conduzir a quarta missão de monitorização do pós- programa, evitou os temas mais polémicos e em relação aos quais está em desacordo com o actual Governo. Contudo, Nuno Alves, sub-director do departamento de estudos do Banco de Portugal, que moderou o debate, surpreendeu o chefe de missão quando lhe perguntou se reconhece que o salário mínimo nacional (SMN) é um instrumento importante para reduzir a desigualdade.
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"Claro que não podemos deixar que a desigualdade cresça”, reconheceu, mas “o aumento dos rendimentos deve ser feito por via do aumento da procura e não através do aumento do SMN”. “Se estão preocupados com a desigualdade e com a pobreza, têm de se preocupar com os desempregados", defendeu este responsável, cujo organismo que representa defende que o aumento do SMN afecta negativamente a criação de emprego."

Estes directores do Banco de Portugal fazem-me recordar aquela frase: é preciso destruir a aldeia para salvar a aldeia.
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Estes catequistas são do pior para dar cabo da economia e estragar a vida às pessoas. Recordar a via negativa:

"Recall that the interventionista focuses on positive action - doing. Just like positive definitions, we saw that acts of commission are respected and glorified by our primitive minds and lead to, say, naive government interventions that end in disaster, followed by generalized complaints about naive government interventions, as these, it is now accepted, end in disaster, followed by more naive government interventions. Acts of omission, not doing something, are not considered acts and do not appear to be part of one’s mission. ... I have used all my life a wonderfully simple heuristic: charlatans are recognizable in that they will give you positive advice, and only positive advice, exploiting our gullibility and sucker-proneness for recipes that hit you in a flash as just obvious, then evaporate later as you forget them.
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in practice it is the negative that’s used by the pros, those selected by evolution: chess grandmasters usually win by not losing; people become rich by not going bust (particularly when others do); religions are mostly about interdicts; the learning of life is about what to avoid. You reduce most of your personal risks of accident thanks to a small number of measures.
...
So the central tenet of the epistemology I advocate is as follows: we know a lot more what is wrong than what is right, or, phrased according to the fragile/robust classification, negative knowledge (what is wrong, what does not work) is more robust to error than positive knowledge (what is right, what works). So knowledge grows by subtraction much more than by addition—given that what we know today might turn out to be wrong but what we know to be wrong cannot turn out to be right, at least not easily." 

Trecho retirado de "Subir Lall defende participação dos desempregados nas políticas laborais"

Um perfil diferente

Nos postais:

• Um exemplo a seguir com atenção (parte III);
• Parte IV - ainda experimentando mais com mais experiências.

Referimos dois exemplos, o dos jornais e o dos centros comerciais, dois casos em que a internet está a arrasar os sectores. É o caso clássico da disrupção em favor dos que se sentem overserved.

.

Por isso, não admira esta previsão sobre os empregos que mais vão desaparecer:

"The report said the top five occupations — in terms of number of people employed in them — facing a high risk of automation are:

• Retail salesperson.

• Administrative assistant.

• Food counter attendant.

• Cashier.

• Transport truck driver.

The institute put a 70 per cent or higher probability that "high risk" jobs will be affected by automation over the next 10 to 20 years, and it said workers in the most susceptible jobs typically earn less and have lower education levels than the rest of the Canadian labour force."

Qual a solução que preconizo para as empresas que querem fazer face a este tipo de disrupção? Desistir de reconquistar o grosso dos antigos clientes, perdidos para sempre para o preço baixo, encolher e aprender a trabalhar para os underserved, os que estão dispostos a pagar mais por uma oferta diferente.
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Assim, de acordo com aquela previsão, vão desaparecer muitos empregos no retalho, empregos para "just warm bodies" mas ao mesmo tempo vão aparecer muitos empregos (embora menos do que os que vão desaparecer) para um tipo de perfil diferente de vendedor ou de funcionário de loja, um ajudante, um conselheiro que ajuda a co-construir experiências de valor acrescentado. Idem no jornalismo.
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Serão uma versão do que aconteceu aquela fábrica de calçado que não conseguia vender sapatos a 20€ e que hoje prospera a vendê-los a 230€.

Trecho retirado de "42% of Canadian jobs at high risk of being affected by automation, new study suggests"

BTW

"El comercio electrónico prácticamente se ha triplicado en España entre 2009 y 2014,
...
El continente latinoamericano ha cuadruplicado el volumen de ventas online con una Tasa Compuesta de Crecimiento Anual del 34% en el periodo 2009-14,"

O dinheiro não é o mais importante

Primeiro, a paixão:

"Sempre que entrava numa loja da Osklen, Ana Costa tinha vontade de perder a cabeça. A designer, de 28 anos, confessa que queria comprar tudo."

Depois, a experimentação:

"não tinha contactos de fábricas nem de fornecedores e, por isso, decidiu pôr-se no caminho e bater às portas de potenciais parceiros. Contactos feitos e, com um investimento de 28 mil euros (que entretanto já devolveu aos ‘investidores’), Ana desenhou a primeira coleção da +351, uma maneira tímida e cautelosa de se apresentar ao mercado. Mas, sobretudo, uma forma de testar o produto no público-alvo." 

Depois, a aposta na diferenciação:

"Por isso, no segundo ano, foi altura de arriscar: novos materiais, estampagens e os seus desafios favoritos: tingimentos. “Já havia tantas marcas de swimwear, eu não queria fazer mais uma. Queria escolher bem os materiais e os cortes para criar peças que vão durar, que são intemporais. Peças que pudesse usar sempre”, detalha." 

Depois, chegar ao consumidor (loja própria, loja multimarca, e online):

"“Abrir um ponto de venda próprio foi muito importante porque, em lojas multimarca, a marca perde identidade.”
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O passo seguinte foi começar a procurar lojas multimarca onde vender o produto. Mas Ana percebeu que, mais fácil do que vender online ou noutras lojas, seria ter um espaço próprio, onde pudesse reunir o próprio espaço de criação e o contacto mais direto com os clientes."

Assim, parece fácil. O dinheiro não é o mais importante: paixão e diferenciação são mais importantes.

Trechos retirados de "+351. Nome de código: roupa de surf pensada e feita em Portugal"

Estratégia em todo lado - não é winner-take-all (parte II)

Parte I.

"Economists missed the fact that matchmakers, just like any other businesses, can differentiate themselves."

Este artigo "The On-Demand Economy Hits The Reset Button" é um alerta para aquilo que é único em cada serviço, não basta uma plataforma:

"Venture capitalists who believed that Uber and Lyft’s model was widely applicable poured billions of dollars into this new convenience economy. Collectively, these startups became known as "Uber for X," or the on-demand economy.
...
Biyani realized that he couldn’t rely on independent contractors in the way that allowed Lyft and Uber to grow without ever hiring drivers or buying vehicles. Sprig’s first three staff hires were chefs.
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In the past several months, the rest of the tech world has come to understand what Biyani discovered almost immediately: The on-demand economy is more complicated than merely applying a clever business model to different service sectors. None of the many startups that adopted Uber’s business model has managed to make it work as magnificently as Uber.
...
Some pundits deem it the "on-demand apocalypse." But what’s going on here is not so much the thinning of an oversaturated market as its maturation. On-demand companies use their networks and mobile technology to achieve a competitive advantage (and their traditional rivals are catching on quickly). But delivering food, it turns out, is not the same as dispatching cars. And providing child care is different from delivering food. This should not be a surprise: One can learn from a successful business model, but copying it verbatim almost never yields a similarly stellar result.
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The businesses that once were happy to be lumped together in the hot trend are now realizing that, to survive and thrive, they can’t just be tech companies.[Moi ici: Mais um ponto a favor das plataformas cooperativas]
...
Despite the doomsaying, "on demand" is not going away. What is really dying is "on demand" as a category. It’s not unlike what happened with the "Internet economy" of the late 1990s. All those celebrated "Internet startups"? We have a word for them today. We call them businesses."

Transformar, apesar do travesti (parte I)

Durante muitos anos a representação do funcionamento de uma empresa foi o tosco organigrama:

Os anos 90 do século passado, com a reengenharia, deram alento há abordagem por processos.
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A ISO 9001 democratizou o uso da abordagem por processos. Isso levou a que em muitas empresas aquilo a que se chamam processos não passe de uma farsa, são na realidade departamentos travestidos de processos.
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A verdade é que:

Agora, imaginem querer transformar uma empresa recorrendo à abordagem por processos, quando essa empresa tem, na verdade, departamentos travestidos de processos no seu mapa de processos...

Continua.

Curiosidade do dia

Como eu sorrio, numa espécie de Mateus 11:25, quando vejo os governos a tomar a exportadoras grandes como as que dão emprego e fazem mover a economia. Basta recordar o meu critério "Acerca das exportações dos primeiros 4 meses de 2016".
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A única preocupação é que as empresas grandes ao obterem para si benesses, para supostamente aumentarem mais as exportações, consigam prejudicar as PME onde a vida económica do país realmente acontece.
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O socialismo de biombos, carpetes e corredores de que falo é isto:

• Fora dos palácios há uma multidão que não precisa de orientação
• Comecemos pelo ponto nº1
• Acerca do choradinho e das queixinhas ...
• Biombos e carpetes

Aposto que a seguir reúnem com a CGD para fomentar esta economia de oligarcas.

"De um lado, estava o primeiro-ministro acompanhado pelos ministros da Economia e dos Negócios Estrangeiros; do outro, "duas dezenas de empresários", entre os quais estavam os líderes da Semapa, Auto-Europa, Mota Engil, Galp e Continental Mabor. O objectivo era "ouvir os empresários sobre o que fazer para reforçar as exportações", adiantou o comentador."

Tudo exemplo de empresas em que o negócio é preço.
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Muitos, talvez a maioria dos empresários que conheço e que fazem parte da economia dinâmica que exporta à custa de valor acrescentado nos sectores tradicionais não tem tempo para fazer estes números de beija-mão no palácio. Há muito que seguiram este conselho "O que o país precisa é de PME's competitivas que façam by-pass ao estado, que compitam no mercado global."

Trecho retirado de "António Costa chama empresários a São Bento".

Acerca da servitization (parte II)

Parte I.
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Esta semana, já depois de ter escrito "Acerca da servitization" ouvi, incrédulo na rádio uma versão deste caso "Update on Incident: TAP A332 at Lisbon on Jul 12th 2014, engine shut down in flight". O meu lado cínico à solta pôs-me logo a pensar em que muito do que se escreve como exemplo pode não passar de infoplacement, uma forma mais rebuscada de publicidade sem conteúdo real.
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Isto é muito lindo:

"Equipment focussed product life-cycle offerings including maintenance services support products already sold. An ongoing support tends to become on-site maintenance.
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Asset focused managed services create a higher level of complexity as they are made up of different but interlinked or interdependent pieces of equipment and several suppliers. This calls for a dedicated organizational function to manage the assets and coordinate the support activities. A servitizing manufacturing firm can find an opportunity to enter this area of managed services.
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Process focused advisory or consulting services can offer technical and management advice, pro-active problem solving through co-innovation as well as reactive problem solving. Given sufficient understanding of their customer´s and user´s world the servitized manufacturing firm can offer and even implement solutions using their own monetary resources, their own equipment and other physical assets, their own relationships, their competence in people and processes, their own brands etc."

Contudo, quando se adia uma manutenção programada porque não havia espaço na agenda do responsável pela manutenção...

"The difficulty for the engine manufacturer, for reasons related to the contracts with the various operators and/or availability, to schedule an earlier Quick Turn that resulted in ESN 811471 engine reaching a CSN above the desired (taking into account the record of previous events) for its removal;"

Plataformas em todo o lado

"But the nature of competition and strategy is quite different in a platform-based business, said Van Alstyne:

• The goal is interactions [Moi ici Estão a ver porque isto é perigoso ""] that yield network effects and provide growth and sustainability, - not protecting market niches or erecting industry barriers.

• Industry boundaries can be altered as appropriate, - rather than sticking to sharply defined categories.

• Competition is multi-layered, “more like 3D chess”, - rather than just relaying on product differentiation or lower costs.

• Competitors are turned into complementors that offer their products or services on the platform - there’s no longer a need to own unique, inimitable resources.

...
“With platforms, a critical strategic aim is strong up-front design that will attract the desired participants, enable the right interactions (so-called core interactions), and encourage ever-more-powerful network effects… while guarding against threats remains critical, the focus of strategy shifts to eliminating barriers to production and consumption in order to maximize value creation…  To that end, platform executives must make smart choices about access (whom to let onto the platform) and governance (or control - what consumers, producers, providers, and even competitors are allowed to do there)…”

Trecho retirado de "Platforms and the New Rules of Strategy"

"Who murdered strategy?"

"When strategy is murdered in an organization who is blamed, who is the equivalent of the butler? Fortunately you do not have to wait to the last page to find out. Amazingly the strategy itself is blamed. Leaders say ‘‘well the strategy must have been wrong’’ and move on. This is amazing because leaders never look beyond their first (and often) only suspect. If it was not the strategy then who else can be responsible?.The implementation.As an implementation specialist whose work starts after the strategy has been crafted, I am more than happy with strategy constantly taking the blame. But it is a short sighted view that is damaging and distorting leaders’ implementation abilities. Leaders must recognize that strategy implementation is extremely difficult and that they habitually underestimate its challenges. They perceive crafting strategy as the harder challenge and therefore by default blame the toughest area when it fails. Executing strategy, however, is just as tough as crafting the right strategy. Therefore typically it is evenly balanced where the blame lies for strategy’s murder....Currently too many leaders delegate their implementation responsibilities and do not follow through on the actions. When leaders stop paying attention to the implementation so do the staff members and it starts to fail. Leaders must take more time to reflect that the suspects for strategy’s murder come from both strategy and its implementation....Before you start the implementation of your next strategy, take the time to learn from what has happened before in your organization. Take the time to: * make sure you know why previous strategies have failed;* examine what happened in both the planning and the implementation of the strategy;* identify lessons that can be shared;* understand what works and what doesn’t in your culture;* identify the critical success factors for moving forward; and
* constantly review your new implementation to ensure you are not repeating mistakes."

Trechos retirados de "Who murdered strategy?", Strategic Direction, Vol. 27 Iss 9 pp. 3 - 5, Robin Speculand, (2011).

Por que as grandes estratégias têm de ser fora da caixa

"Great strategies always go against the grain of accepted wisdom. Markets and organizations have powerful immune systems that erect multiple barriers to implementing them. Leaders who own their strategies are more likely to persevere through such resistance, and prevail. Great strategies take leaders who believe enough in them — and the ideas they depend on — to be willing to fight their own organization and the broader market for however long it takes to realize the strategy."

Este trecho fez-me logo relacionar com estes outros:

"The real power of a well-crafted corporate theory [Moi ici: Outra forma de referir a estratégia] becomes evident as companies go shopping for the assets to test their theories. Value creation through markets always comes down to prices paid, and a good corporate theory enables the acquirer to spot bargains that are uniquely discerned or uniquely available to it.
...
The mark of a well-crafted corporate theory is the uniqueness of the value creating opportunities it reveals. This uniqueness may stem from the uniqueness of the foresight the theory reveals or from the uniqueness of the assets and capabilities a company already possesses."

Ou seja, se uma estratégia não for ao arrepio do senso comum "toda a gente" verá a oportunidade e, assim, haverá muitos licitadores a quererem adquirir os meios para executar essa estratégia. Então, numa espécie de guerra de licitações num leilão, os meios serão adquiridos a um preço tal que dificilmente se ganhará dinheiro, uma espécie de "winner's curse" (aqui e aqui).
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Trecho inicial retirado de "Why Popular Strategies Always Fade"
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Trechos finais retirados de "Beyond competitive advantage : how to solve the puzzle of sustaining growth while creating value" de Todd Zenger.

Curiosidade do dia

Primeiro:

"Desagradado com a situação, Dijsselbloem avisou mais tarde que está a "tentar compreender" o que tudo isto significa e vincou que lei é lei e as regras são para cumprir."

 Depois:

"A cultura católica é uma cultura de grandes futebolistas e também uma cultura de grandes batoteiros.
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E não só no futebol. É esta tendência para a batota, para transgredir as regras, que, a prazo,  torna a Democracia ou o Estado de Direito Democrático, que é um governo de regras,  impossível num país de tradição católica."

Por fim:

"After a hard-fought 1-0 match between Portugal and a team representing DHL’s Brussels aviation hub, the Belgian coach claimed that the Portuguese squad had surreptitiously substituted fresh players more often than tournament rules allowed, giving the team an advantage on a brutally hot day.
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While Peter Kruse graciously if grudgingly offered congratulations to the Portuguese team after its match with Germany, Peter Caes, the Brussels Aviation coach, months later remained upset that officials didn’t penalize Portugal for its violation of tournament regulations"

Não será porque ...

"If you look at what’s happened in big cities around the U.S. in recent years, it’s easy to think we’re living in Startup Nation. Thanks to the plummeting cost and increased availability of digital tools, as well as greater access to early-stage funding, we’ve seen what the Economist has called a “Cambrian moment,” with digital startups “bubbling up in an astonishing variety of services and products.”
...
Meanwhile, though, a host of economic researchers have been telling a much bleaker story: American entrepreneurship is actually on the decline, and has been for decades.
...
According to the Commerce Department, the number of new businesses started by Americans has fallen sharply since 2000, and so too has the percentage of American workers working for companies that are less than a year old.
...
So has America lost its appetite for risk? Not really. It is true that the number of new businesses has fallen, but much of that decline has been concentrated in what economists call “subsistence” businesses. These are businesses whose founders have no interest in creating a big company.
...
A small percentage of new businesses, though, are different: from the start, their ambition is to become big. These businesses are run by “transformational” entrepreneurs
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While Stern and Guzman show that high-growth firms are being formed as actively as ever, they also find that these companies are not succeeding as often as such companies once did. As the researchers put it, “Even as the number of new ideas and potential for innovation is increasing, there seems to be a reduction in the ability of companies to scale in a meaningful and systematic way.” As many seeds as ever are being planted. But fewer trees are growing to the sky.
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Stern and Guzman are agnostic about why this is happening. But one obvious answer suggests itself: the increased power of established incumbents. We may think that we have been living in a business world in which incumbents are always on the verge of being toppled and competitive advantage is more fragile than ever."

Há dias, num dos episódios da série "Endeavour" no canal Fox Crime, um autista era excepcional a desenhar, a pintar, algo que tinha vista uma só vez. No final do episódio, num raro momento de exteriorização o autista confessava: "quem me dera saber criar, ser inovador" (e não um copiador, um recitador da realidade). Lembrei-me logo de algo que li em Gigerenzer "the art of focusing on what’s important and ignoring the rest", acerca de um russo que conseguia citar de memória o conteúdo da página 237 de um livro mas era incapaz de dizer o que queria dizer o que tinha acabado de citar.
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Fico sempre a pensar nestes casos quando leio trechos como os que retirei de "Why Startups Are Struggling". Sigam-me por favor:

1. American entrepreneurship is actually on the decline, and has been for decades.
2. but much of that decline has been concentrated in what economists call “subsistence” businesses. These are businesses whose founders have no interest in creating a big company.
3. A small percentage of new businesses, though, are different: from the start, their ambition is to become big.
4. high-growth firms are being formed as actively as ever, they also find that these companies are not succeeding as often as such companies once did.

Não será porque há mais startups do mesmo tipo a tentar seduzir o mesmo número limitado de potenciais clientes?

Não será porque a realidade acelerou?

Custa-me a crer que sejam os incumbentes.

Um exemplo a seguir com atenção (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"2015 marked the newspaper sector’s worst year since the Great Recession, with average weekday circulation for both print and digital subscriptions falling another 7 percent, the biggest dip since 2010. It’s not just circulation—most of the stats point down. In 2015, publicly traded newspaper companies’ overall advertising revenue fell 8 percent, the greatest decline since 2009. Accordingly, newsroom employment has continued to plunge, with an overall loss of about 20,000 positions (39 percent) over the past 20 years.
...
The death of newspapers seems imminent.
...
In other words, newspapers no longer own the news. And not just financially. Newspapers are losing their grasp end to end, as tech companies become more integral to the news experience by introducing new distribution platforms (e.g., Facebook’s Instant Articles) and overtaking the core elements that have traditionally defined the newspaper industry."

Nesta série estamos a ver um exemplo de um sector, centros comerciais, a fazer experiências para dar a volta e arranjar alternativas para ultrapassar disrupção a servir os overserved. O que é que a imprensa arcaica está a fazer? Estão exactamente na mesma situação, a ser disrompidos pela internet a favor dos overserved. Recordar o choradinho de Janeiro passado em que circulava movimento para pedir ao Estado que obrigasse os contribuintes a pagar a sua existência, sem experiências, sem fuçar, sem evolução:

@ccz1 @PGorjao num recente artigo a.l.coelho pedia benfeitores e fundos p jornais, mesmo se ninguém os comprasse.

— José Gomes André (@JGAndre) January 3, 2016

Trecho retirado de "The Hourglass Is 'Nearing Empty' on the Newspaper Industry"

Parte IV - ainda experimentando mais com mais experiências

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

"America's malls have been dying for years. Of the nearly 1,200 enclosed malls in the U.S., one-third are doing so poorly that they aren't generating enough money to pay for the maintenance of the structures themselves. Part of this decline can be traced to the Internet. Now that consumers can easily buy products online, brick-and-mortar retail stores can't afford to simply serve as showcase rooms, only to see visitors buy the very products they offer from Amazon at lower prices. They need to offer exceptional in-person experiences to keep customers coming, buying in, and returning to their stores.
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In the midst of this graveyard of malls, new retail concepts are emerging.
...
"We're really interested in creating a reason for customers to come to the store several times a week.
...
He points out that a brick-and-mortar store needed to offer more than a mere physical space for selling products. Boyarsky wants people to associate his brand with not only fashionable activewear, but also a whole world of experiences connected to wellness surrounding fitness, nutrition, and special activities. "We want to be seen as a curator of the fitness world,""

Trecho retirado de "In The Graveyard Of American Malls, Bandier Is Reimagining The Brick-And-Mortar Store"

Qual é a lógica? (parte II)

Parte I.

Já tinha este postal rascunhado desde o dia 17. Publico-o agora ancorado ao exemplo concreto referido na parte I.
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Trecho inicial retirado de "Problemas de país rico", só para salientar que o conteúdo deste postal vai ser muito útil nos próximos tempos em Portugal:

"Nos próximos meses será essencial não esquecer que Portugal é um país rico, moderno, desenvolvido. Avizinham-se momentos de grande turbulência, aperto, dificuldade, onde será fácil perder de vista esta realidade que, no entanto, permanece indiscutível. Precisamente porque deixaremos muito do que agora gozamos, é bom não esquecer tudo o que, apesar disso, ainda temos. Uma crise conjuntural, mesmo grande, não chega a afectar a estrutura nacional."

A tentação para fazer descontos vai ser grande. Por isso, faz sentido ler: "Confessions of the Pricing Man: How Price Affects Everything" de Hermann Simon:

"Price concessions can come in the form of cash rebates, which reduce the transaction price, or in the form of additional goods and services. Offering goods and services instead of lower prices has several advantages during a crisis:- Price: The nominal price level is not harmed.- Profit: Assuming the same percentage, the supplier is better off profitwise by offering goods or services instead of a straight discount.- Volume: This form of discount generates more volume and keeps people working....Using goods as a means to deliver a discount improves volume, employee utilization, and profit. This kind of offer has an additional advantage. If the manufacturer designates it as a temporary measure during the crisis , it is easier to rescind when the crisis ends."

Não teria feito sentido a Bel lançar o novo produto com um preço premium e aplicar um "leve 2 pague 1!?

Curiosidade do dia

"Disse que Portugal está a “sair de um momento de arrefecimento económico que aconteceu desde meados de 2015”"

Por isso, é que isto está a acontecer "Actividade económica entra em terreno negativo pela primeira vez desde 2013".

"Criticou o discurso “destrutivo e que não interessa a ninguém “"

Por isso, é que este mesmo senhor usava argumentação deste tipo, manipulação das séries, quando estava na oposição:

• Curiosidade do dia (Agosto de 2015)

Trechos retirados de "O ministro "tímido", "mole" e "caracoleta" recusou a política do “bota-abaixo”"

Parte III - experimentando com mais experiências

Parte I e parte II

"Macy’s new concept store seems to have been conceived by dutifully checking off boxes on a “hot retail trends” list.
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On June 25, the struggling department store chain will unveil a new prototype in a renovated store at the Easton Town Center in Columbus, Ohio, filled with lifestyle shops that play up services.
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The mix of in-store shops includes the Restore, Nourish and Strengthen boutique, stocked with athletic wear such as Finish Line footwear, Fitbit watches and even a juice and smoothie bar, according to The Columbus Dispatch. With the shop, staffed with health and fitness “ambassadors,” Macy’s is angling for a piece of the only robust part of the apparel market, while capitalizing on the nation’s ever burgeoning health and wellness trend.
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The store will also debut a free personal-shopper service dubbed, My Stylist @Macy’s; a LensCrafters eyeglass shop with licensed opticians; and a Bluemercury spa by the beauty chain Macy’s acquired last year, offering facials and waxings. Bluemercury reflects Macy’s move to modernize its beauty business along the lines of hot — and hipper — freestanding concepts like Sephora .
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A revamped wedding services department is also on tap, clearly a bid by Macy's M +2.59% to appeal to Millennials, the coveted generation that’s displaced Baby Boomers as the nation’s biggest buying group and is projected to generate $1.4 trillion in sales by 2020, according to Accenture ACN +0.00%.
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Macy’s efforts to offer lifestyle shops spiced up with services and on-staff experts points to an urgent push to counter the encroachment of e-commerce by giving consumers something online shopping can’t: tangible experiences and in-person pampering.
...
Macy’s will be watching closely how shoppers take to the new prototype to see what can be rolled out to other stores. And management is crossing their fingers. ”Instead of teaching someone to ring a register, we’re hiring people who understand the lifestyle,” said Kathi Newton, vice president and store manager told the Columbus Dispatch. “I think this is going to be a real game-changer.” We’ll see."

"Can Facials And Fitness Experts Revive Macy's?"

Qual é a lógica?

Há uns anos, quando li a estória pela primeira vez, elogiei-os pela ideia e pelo agitar das águas fétidas e calmas habituadas à conversa do preço mais baixo. Recordar "Proactividade no sector do leite (parte I)"
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No entanto, fez ontem exactamente um mês escrevi "Soa-me estranho ..." que termina desta forma triste e desanimada:

"Fico desconfiado que não acreditam na estratégia que definiram... que afinal não passa de marketing."

Esta manhã fui ao talho a Estarreja. Como de costume estacionei o carro longe da confusão, junto a uma pouco frequentada loja do Minipreço.
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No regresso ao carro tive uma surpresa!
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Num flash... Hermann Simon, o Evangelho do Valor, Marn e Rosielo, Ron Baker, este blogue, passaram pela minha cabeça.
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Com uma certa tristeza, saquei do telefone para fotografar o que acabara de ver... a comprovação do que escrevera naquele postal de Maio passado:

Então uma empresa desenvolve uma estratégia baseada na diferenciação, para se decomoditizar, apela a vantagens competitivas que reforcem o valor percepcionado pelos potenciais clientes e, depois, lança a novidade como se fosse um produto de preço-baixo? Qual é a lógica?
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Será que na Bel ninguém estuda o Evangelho do Valor? Será que ninguém percebe que a lógica da diferenciação tem de jogar noutro campeonato?
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Será que se habituarem os clientes desde o início a preço-baixo para o leite de pastagem alguma vez o conseguirão colocar no patamar de preço mais alto, justificável pelos atributos e, sobretudo pelo intangível associado à narrativa das vacas felizes da pastagem ao ar livre?
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Será que a malta do marketing, e a da comercial, e a da da gestão estratégica na Bel conversa entre si?
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Continua, com uma lição útil para a Bel e para todas as empresas, sobretudo aquando da próxima crise financeira que o país vai viver.

O consumidor de Mongo (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.
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A parte I começa com:

"Connected technology and intelligent use of data have already enabled"

A tecnologia da produção em massa da revolução industrial com a electricidade e o comboio criaram o mercado de massas do século XX. Agora, novamente, as tecnologias do final do século XX e do inicio do século XXI permitiram o advento de Mongo, e esse advento permite que um novo tipo de consumidor apareça. E quanto mais esse consumidor aparece, mais ficamos todos weird, e mais Mongo se entranha. Olhando para as 5 categorias que caracterizam os consumidores de Mongo, avançadas nas partes I e II não fica difícil antever o bailado com a IoT, com as impressoras 3D, com o DIY, com as tribos, com os novos materiais, com os novos modelos de negócio, ...
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Uma co-evolução em que um diz mata e o outro diz esfola!

Um quase-cego no meio de uma paisagem movediça

 "The corporate strategist’s task is no different. It is to assemble available assets, capabilities, and activities in new ways in search of competitive advantage for the firm. But more importantly, the corporate strategist’s task is to do this successfully over and over again. This is like an almost-blind explorer navigating a rugged, mountainous landscape in constant search for a higher peak. Since she cannot clearly see the terrain, she must develop some theory of what she will find, drawing from available knowledge and past experience. Then, by conducting strategic experiments, which in the corporate world amounts to assembling assets and activities, she gains a clearer vision of some limited portion of this topography.[Moi ici: Uma metáfora interessante mas com uma falha importante, o raio do terreno, a paisagem competitiva, move-se, tem vida própria, Recordar "Acerca da Totoestratégia" e a série sobre o trapezista cego]

Strategic experiments can be costly and time-consuming. They may require several years to assemble, and often involve highly specialized and largely irreversible investments. Consequently, engaging in a purely random, experimental search for increased value is unacceptable. That’s why good strategists compose theories of how to navigate this terrain. Like a scientist’s theory, the strategist’s theory generates hypotheses that guide actions. Theories define expectations about causal relationships: If the world functions according to my theory, then this action will generate the following outcome. They are dynamic and are updated based on evidence or feedback received. They permit low-cost thought experiments, thereby minimizing expensive, misguided investments."

Trecho retirado de "Beyond competitive advantage : how to solve the puzzle of sustaining growth while creating value" de Todd Zenger.

Curiosidade do dia

""Claramente o novo Governo não acredita que a liberalização e a desregulação como a forma correcta de reanimar a economia do país. Em vez disso, está focado numa política financeira mais expansionista e num maior papel do Estado na economia", diz Ralph Solveen. Resultado? "A experiência de tentativas semelhantes de outros países no passado torna duvidoso que este caminho levará ao sucesso", atira o especialista. E acrescenta: "há o risco de Portugal sofrer novamente uma queda da economia, devido aos seus muitos problemas estruturais"."

Trecho retirado de "Commerzbank: "Portugal à beira da crise""

"A economia portuguesa continua a dar sinais de abrandamento, com o indicador do Banco de Portugal a recuar pelo sexto mês consecutivo. Está em mínimos desde a recessão de 2013.
O indicador do Banco de Portugal para medir a actividade económica atingiu um valor negativo em Maio deste ano, o que sucede pela primeira vez desde Agosto de 2013, ano de recessão na economia portuguesa.
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A OCDE, nas previsões divulgadas recentemente, considerou que a economia portuguesa dificilmente crescerá mais que 1,2% em 2016, a previsão mais pessimista até agora. O Banco de Portugal actualizou as suas estimativas e tem uma previsão não muito diferente, apontando para um crescimento do PIB de 1,3%.
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O Ministério das Finanças mantém-se como o mais optimista, a prever o crescimento económico de 1,8%."

Trechos retirados de "Actividade económica entra em terreno negativo pela primeira vez desde 2013"

"Nos próximos meses será essencial não esquecer que Portugal é um país rico, moderno, desenvolvido. Avizinham-se momentos de grande turbulência, aperto, dificuldade, onde será fácil perder de vista esta realidade que, no entanto, permanece indiscutível. Precisamente porque deixaremos muito do que agora gozamos, é bom não esquecer tudo o que, apesar disso, ainda temos. Uma crise conjuntural, mesmo grande, não chega a afectar a estrutura nacional."

Trecho retirado de "Problemas de país rico"

E na sua empresa?

"when asked to identify their most important criteria for deciding to invest in a company, the experience and credibility of the management team and the clarity of its business strategy and vision were among the top choices
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Less popular criteria, by contrast, were strictly financial metrics such as a company’s free cash flow as a percentage of sales, the level of return on invested capital, and leverage ratios.
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When we asked respondents to describe the areas in greatest need of improvement at their portfolio companies, most cited strategic management processes, such as capital allocation, strategy development and planning, investor communications, and risk management."

E na sua empresa, como estão estas valências?
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Trechos retirados de "In a Tough Market, Investors Seek New Ways to Create Value"