Evolução do retalho

Interessantes estes números:

"The British high street suffered 2,692 store closures in the first half of 2018, according to analysis of the UK's top 500 towns compiled by the Local Data Company for PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). In contrast, there were 1,569 store openings, a decline of a third year-on-year.
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The findings equate to an overall net loss of 1,123 stores disappearing from the UK’s streets during this period. (In the same period a year prior, there were 2,564 store closures to 2,342 openings — an overall net loss of 222 stores.) “Openings simply aren’t replacing closures at a fast enough rate,” said Lisa Hooker, consumer markets leader at PwC.
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10 percent of store closures were fashion retailers, making it the largest business category affected. According to PwC, 269 fashion stores closed in the first half of 2018, while 165 opened.
...
“The British high street is in urgent need of new ways of thinking and new forms of retail,”"

E o tema da economia das experiências:

"clothing retailers’ troubles reflected a shift in consumer preference for online shopping and at-home leisure, as well as a change in culture towards enjoying experiences rather than buying products. While the shift has resulted in an increase of “experiential” store openings such as beauty salons, it hasn’t been enough to offset the closures of more traditional businesses." 

Trechos retirados de "UK Retail Apocalypse Deepens"

BTW, pode ser coincidência, mas:

"As vendas anuais no retalho alemão baixaram de forma acentuada em setembro, ao contrário das expetativas dos economistas, que previam um crescimento. Os gastos dos consumidores alemães diminuíram cerca de 2,6% em setembro, quando comparado com igual período do ano anterior, revela o Gabinete Federal de Estatística (Destatis) alemão, sendo que se previa um crescimento de 0,9%. Esta foi a maior quebra desde junho de 2013.
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Os sinais de quebra foram particularmente claros no sector têxtil e vestuário, onde foi registada uma descida de 9,6% nas vendas, enquanto na alimentação, bebidas e tabaco estas desceram 3%."

Gente que não percebe a importância da batota

"Uma garrafeira deve organizar eventos para mostrar aos clientes a dinâmica criativa que ocorre em todas as regiões vitícolas. É isso que as deve distinguir dos hipermercados.
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Depois de uma vista de olhos às prateleiras, dois vinhos chamaram a minha atenção: o Edmun do Val 2009 (Alvarinho) e o Puro Talha 2015, da Adega José de Sousa. Como quem não quer a coisa, perguntei à funcionária se o Alvarinho de 2009 estaria em condições. Resposta: "Está sim, senhor." E acabou a conversa. Quanto ao vinho de talha, a senhora só sabia dizer que o mesmo tinha sido apresentado há uns meses numa feira de vinho. E fim de conversa.
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Se estivesse numa grande superfície, ainda era como o outro. Mas numa garrafeira especializada exige-se mais. Exige-se que os funcionários tenham capacidade de contar uma história por cada marca que vendem. Afinal de contas, os produtores, que são o suporte do seu negócio, confiam neles.
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Com as honrosas excepções da praxe, poucas são as garrafeiras que mostram dinamismo e criatividade na exposição e comunicação das marcas aos clientes. Limitam-se a encher prateleiras divididas por denominação de origem e esperar que alguém entre pela loja a pedir um conselho para uma garrafa destinada a um jantar disto ou daquilo em casa de um amigo.
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Num país tão pequeno, mas com perfis de vinhos tão diferentes, uma garrafeira bem gerida deveria criar eventos temáticos de todas as formas e feitios, captando a atenção dos consumidores que gostam de vinhos que não se vendem na grande distribuição.
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Se um tipo disser ao dono de uma garrafeira para fomentar a procura, desafiar os consumidores, apresentar uma oferta diferente das garrafeiras dos hipermercados ou - como nalgumas cadeias de livros e música - apresentar regularmente uma selecção de vinhos dos próprios funcionários, ele reconhecerá, por educação, que temos razão, mas encolherá os ombros e voltará ao "business as usual". Como dizia o outro, é a vida. Infelizmente."

E recuo a Maio de 2008 e à apologia da batota...

Trechos retirados de "Garrafeiras mais dinâmicas precisam-se"

Para reflexão

Relacionar "This Is How a Brick-and-Mortar Store Can Thrive in the Age of Amazon" com "Britain’s Online Shopping Boom Is a Bust for the High Street".

Quando o exterior muda mais rapidamente que uma organização, não demora muito a sentir-se um desfasamento. O mais natural, para quem tem o locus de controlo no exterior, é procurar um culpado e um papá para evitar a mudança interna que se impõe. O clássico "A vítima, o vilão e o salvador".

Impressionante!!!

Ontem, ao ver a loja da Pikolinos no Gaiashopping voltei a recordar a conversa na origem de "Em busca de um novo oásis".

Com as lojas online a destruírem as prateleiras tradicionais, a alternativa é criar as suas próprias prateleiras "El calzado de Pikolinos prosigue su expansión y abre su primera tienda en Barcelona".

Agora, descubro esta figura imponente:

Impressionante!!!

Figura retirada de "How The Rise Of Amazon Has Destroyed Retail Chains, In One Chart"

BTW, "Selling Stuff Is No Longer the Point of Retail Stores":

"That’s the future of retail, according to a new breed of startups that have embraced physical stores as places for “brand experiences” rather than mere sales."

Por cá, por causa:

• do encolhimento provocado pela crise;
• da aposta do governo no consumo interno;
• do crescimento do turismo;

Este impacte ainda não se fez sentir no emprego no comércio em Portugal.

Parte V - A via da experiência ou a via do volume?

Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV.

"Big box retail stores are losing relevance, while e-commerce and specialty stores grow in appeal. People no longer want — or need — to shop as anonymous customers in large stores with shelves stocked high in aisle after aisle. As a result, big box retail must shift its strategy — from competing on access and selection to staging big experiences and providing big discounts.
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The shrinking demand for big box retail can be seen in the numerous store and company closures across several categories over the last decade.
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These large-store format companies are losing share to Amazon and other e-commerce sellers and to specialty retailers. The former are able to offer a wider selection than even the largest brick-and-mortar store can and their digital tools make it easy to navigate an otherwise overwhelming number of choices with ease, speed, and precision.
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The appeal of the latter is an edited, or even curated, selection of goods targeted to specific customers who self-select into shopping at the store — and these smaller stores often provide superior, personalized service. Not all specialty stores are thriving, but as a whole, the specialty segment of retail is growing while most other sectors have been on the decline.
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Big boxes can shift from being places to stock and sell goods and become venues to stage immersive, memorable, share-worthy experiences. While specialty stores might create an intimate or personal experience, large stores are conducive to experiential retailing that is communal and physical.
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An alternate route for big box retailers is to offer big discounts, using well-honed supply chain and analytics capabilities to offer high-demand products at low margins — with the immediacy and interactivity that e-commerce players can’t. Volume and velocity are required to make this model work"

Estas coisas devem dar um nó na cabeça dos académicos sempre à procura da solução correcta. Não há solução correcta! Não é um puzzle! Cada empresa é um caso, cada caso tem de ter a sua própria solução.

Parte IV - ainda experimentando mais com mais experiências

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

"America's malls have been dying for years. Of the nearly 1,200 enclosed malls in the U.S., one-third are doing so poorly that they aren't generating enough money to pay for the maintenance of the structures themselves. Part of this decline can be traced to the Internet. Now that consumers can easily buy products online, brick-and-mortar retail stores can't afford to simply serve as showcase rooms, only to see visitors buy the very products they offer from Amazon at lower prices. They need to offer exceptional in-person experiences to keep customers coming, buying in, and returning to their stores.
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In the midst of this graveyard of malls, new retail concepts are emerging.
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"We're really interested in creating a reason for customers to come to the store several times a week.
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He points out that a brick-and-mortar store needed to offer more than a mere physical space for selling products. Boyarsky wants people to associate his brand with not only fashionable activewear, but also a whole world of experiences connected to wellness surrounding fitness, nutrition, and special activities. "We want to be seen as a curator of the fitness world,""

Trecho retirado de "In The Graveyard Of American Malls, Bandier Is Reimagining The Brick-And-Mortar Store"

Parte III - experimentando com mais experiências

Parte I e parte II

"Macy’s new concept store seems to have been conceived by dutifully checking off boxes on a “hot retail trends” list.
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On June 25, the struggling department store chain will unveil a new prototype in a renovated store at the Easton Town Center in Columbus, Ohio, filled with lifestyle shops that play up services.
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The mix of in-store shops includes the Restore, Nourish and Strengthen boutique, stocked with athletic wear such as Finish Line footwear, Fitbit watches and even a juice and smoothie bar, according to The Columbus Dispatch. With the shop, staffed with health and fitness “ambassadors,” Macy’s is angling for a piece of the only robust part of the apparel market, while capitalizing on the nation’s ever burgeoning health and wellness trend.
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The store will also debut a free personal-shopper service dubbed, My Stylist @Macy’s; a LensCrafters eyeglass shop with licensed opticians; and a Bluemercury spa by the beauty chain Macy’s acquired last year, offering facials and waxings. Bluemercury reflects Macy’s move to modernize its beauty business along the lines of hot — and hipper — freestanding concepts like Sephora .
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A revamped wedding services department is also on tap, clearly a bid by Macy's M +2.59% to appeal to Millennials, the coveted generation that’s displaced Baby Boomers as the nation’s biggest buying group and is projected to generate $1.4 trillion in sales by 2020, according to Accenture ACN +0.00%.
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Macy’s efforts to offer lifestyle shops spiced up with services and on-staff experts points to an urgent push to counter the encroachment of e-commerce by giving consumers something online shopping can’t: tangible experiences and in-person pampering.
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Macy’s will be watching closely how shoppers take to the new prototype to see what can be rolled out to other stores. And management is crossing their fingers. ”Instead of teaching someone to ring a register, we’re hiring people who understand the lifestyle,” said Kathi Newton, vice president and store manager told the Columbus Dispatch. “I think this is going to be a real game-changer.” We’ll see."

"Can Facials And Fitness Experts Revive Macy's?"

Parte II - Um festival de experiência e transformação

Parte I.

"Grocers offer fitness classes, facials, child care to lure consumers away from online rivals...
Shoppers looking to pick up milk and eggs may have other reasons to spend time at their local supermarket: yoga classes or a spa treatment, perhaps.
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Under growing pressure from discounters and online rivals, supermarkets are trying to transform themselves into places where customers might want to hang out rather than just grabbing groceries and heading home.
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In Phoenix, a Fry’s Food Stores, part of a chain owned by Kroger Co., features a culinary school and a lounge with leather couches perched next to a wine bar. A Kroger store in Hilton Head Island, S.C., offers a cigar section to complement its wine cellar that stocks $600 bottles.
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Whole Foods Market Inc. has a putting green outside its Augusta, Ga., location and a spa offering peppermint foot scrubs and facial waxing in a Boston store. Elsewhere, it has bike-repair stations.
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A ShopRite store here in Hanover Township, near New York, runs a fitness studio with yoga, barre and Zumba classes and has a cosmetologist on weekends."

Recordar Pine e Gilmore:

"with experiences, customers pay for the time they spend with a company, rather than for the activites the company delivers"

Recordar "Versão Beta (parte III)"
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Lembram-se do avanço imparável dos centros comerciais sobre o comércio tradicional? Agora temos o avanço do online sobre os centros comerciais. E temos as experimentações, para reformular o modelo e encontrar alternativas que façam os clientes voltar aos centros comerciais.
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Não sei se resulta, não sei quanto tempo terão de fuçar para encontrar as alternativas viáveis. Sei é que estão a fazer o que deve ser feito: fuçar, fuçar e fuçar. Pois:

“The world can only be grasped by action, not by contemplation.”

Continua.

Trechos retirados de "Attention Shoppers: Yoga in Aisle 3"

Parte I - Os problemas de um modelo

"Department stores were built around the idea that consumers would come to the store for inspiration and discovery. But retailers can no longer rely on that draw. Consumers increasingly get inspiration online first, from social media and blogs, and not from the retailers themselves.
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When that happens, the decision-making process employed by shoppers gets turned completely on its head – consumers start to choose the specific products they want to buy before they choose where to buy them from. This leaves department stores forced to compete on price instead of value.
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Another place where department stores are getting hammered is on the fast fashion front. Retailers like Zara and H&M can put out new fashions every few weeks. Department stores were built around the concept of featuring brands, almost like a store-in-store.
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If your only value proposition to consumers is that you have great brands under one roof, you’re going to lose. ... News flash: you can get great brands anywhere. And when you look for them online, even if they’re at different stores, they’re only a tab away.
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So what should department stores stand for, then? They should stand for a lifestyle. They should stand for things that help consumers solve their lifestyle problems. But stores have been gutted. High-end luxury department stores are the exception. The rest of the vertical have no expertise in stores. Not beyond what I could get asking random people on the street. Why should I go to a store when I can get better advice from blogs? At least they have followers to help give them some cache and sense of expertise.
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And department stores are not organized to present solutions to lifestyle problems. Need an outfit for a wedding? Well, first you have to go to dresses, and then shoes, and then accessories. Need a new outfit for a job interview? Same deal, except it may be even worse. You might have to visit several brand vignettes to find this brand’s suits vs. that brand’s suits, and then start all over again if you need a blouse or shoes to go with.
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Now, part of the problem is that the brands themselves want their vignettes. They want their voice to the customer to stand out, even within the department store. But how do consumers shop online? They see all blouses together. They can filter by brand if they want, but the primary sort is the function first, brand later. And you just can’t shop that way in a department store."

Trechos retirados de "Here's What's Wrong With Department Stores"

A minha aposta seria outra

"A redução de custos é a prioridade das empresas do comércio e serviços para reforçar a competitividade, logo seguida da inovação dos produtos.
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Um inquérito feito pela Quaternaire Portugal para a Confederação do Comércio e Serviços de Portugal (CCP), mostra que 18,8% das empresas questionadas acreditam que para serem mais eficazes precisam de cortar nos gastos, enquanto 16,6% indicam os novos produtos como um dos elementos chaves para a competitividade."

Ainda ontem, num relatório de trabalho e, depois num almoço de trabalho, recorri a estas regras que norteiam parte importante do meu trabalho, Michael Raynor e Mumtaz Ahmed sintetizam no seu livro “The Three Rules”, para ter sucesso as empresas só têm 3 regras:

• Better before cheaper;
• Revenue before cost;
• There is no third rule.

Ou seja, na minha opinião, infelizmente, as empresas do comércio e serviços vão por mau caminho ao elegerem como prioridade a violação da segunda regra.

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Poderão algum dia competir pelo preço com o comércio electrónico?

Poderão algum dia competir pelo preço com os hipermercados?

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E a aposta na experiência da compra?

E a aposta na diferenciação?

E a aposta na relação?

E a aposta na focalização e segmentação dos clientes?

E a aposta na caracterização dos clientes-alvo?

E a aposta numa estratégia à la David?

E a aposta em consultores de compra em vez de vendedores?

E a aposta na batota?

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Ontem, em Santo Ovídio em Gaia, entrei numa mercearia tradicional simplesmente porque tinha em exposição na rua, algo que não tenho visto, ervilha de quebra.

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Recomendação: ler Ko Floor, Nirmalya Kumar e Lars Thomassen.

Trecho retirado de "Reduzir custos é a maior prioridade do comércio para ser competitivo"

O mundo a mudar

Dois textos com referências à revolução em curso no mundo do retalho, através do comércio electrónico:

• "The Future Of Amazon, Apple, Facebook And Google"

"“Uber will be the most disruptive force in American retail. Drivers from firms like Uber are going to disrupt Amazon.”
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“Drive-through pickup points have exploded in France from 1,000 to 3,000 in just the last year.”"

• "Online shopping drives record van sales" 

"The rising popularity of online shopping has helped drive van sales in the UK to a record high.
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Almost 100,000 vans were registered in the first three months of 2015 - 22.3% higher than the same period last year.
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The move towards online shopping and home deliveries is an important contributor to this growth - particularly that of large vans.""

BTW, recordar o marcador "home delivery"

Por todo o lado sintomas da mudança do mundo em que vivemos

Por todo o lado sintomas da mudança do mundo em que vivemos:

• "Shoppers Are Fleeing Physical Stores"

"U.S. retailers are facing a steep and persistent drop in store traffic, which is weighing on sales and prompting chains to slow store openings as shoppers make more of their purchases online.
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Aside from a small uptick in April, shopper visits have fallen by 5% or more from a year earlier in every month for the past two years,
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Growth in store counts at the 100 largest retailers by revenue has slowed to less than 3% from more than 12% three years ago, according to Moody's."

• Mais números e excelentes gráficos sobre a evolução do retalho aqui e aqui
• "What Business Schools Don’t Get About MOOCs" 
• "China desbancará a Estados Unidos como el mayor mercado de moda del mundo en 2017"
• "Bangladesh intensifica las protestas en el textil: 1.500 trabajadores en huelga de hambre"
• "Negocios de Verano: ‘pop-up stores’, tiendas con fecha de caducidad para seducir al turista"

Por cá tudo se justifica com a troika e a austeridade (por exemplo, "A asfixia financeira dos jornais pode custar cara a Portugal"). No entanto, até que ponto o digital está a introduzir ruído na análise destes números "Portugal com segunda maior queda mensal nas vendas a retalho".

Expulso o bode expiatório...

Leio "Nova medida “Comércio Investe” acaba com o Modcom de José Sócrates" e "“Comércio Investe” prevê apoios até 35 mil euros para modernizar lojas de rua".
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Depois, no outro prato da balança, só das leituras de ontem, ponho:

• "The Retail Revolution Is Here";
• "The destruction of traditional retail"

Depois, ainda acrescento a este prato os marcadores: "evolução do retalho"; "batota" e "vendas retalho".

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Depois, visualizo o presidente da Confederação do Comércio e a sua narrativa sobre a causa dos problemas do comércio em Portugal...

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Expulso o bode expiatório... não se seguirá a bonança, a mudança é mais profunda.

Imaginem um governo a torrar dinheiro ...

"A problem for every bricks-and-mortar retailer is internet retail, which went from $45bn to $225bn, or more than 6 per cent of all US retail, between 2002 and 2012. Meanwhile, data from CoStar Realty show that during that decade US retail space grew 13 per cent, or about 1.9bn sq ft. Traditional retailers are hurting. A lot of stores will have to be shuttered before the pain stops."

BTW, imaginem um governo a torrar dinheiro dos contribuintes para suportar uma indústria sobre-dimensionada e alicerçada num modelo de negócio tornado obsoleto pela tecnologia... à espera da retoma.

Trecho retirado de "US retail: shutters are poised"

Preço, não é para quem quer

"Most people just look at a company's margins and judge the quality of the business model based on that, but the cash flow characteristics of the business can make one company a far more valuable company than another with the exact same operating margin. Amazon could have had a margin of zero and still made money.
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At Amazon we were ruthlessly focused on squeezing efficiency out of every part of the business, especially the variable ones that affected every purchase.
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You can choose to leverage that strength in two ways. One is you match your competitor on pricing and just earn higher margins. But the other, the way Amazon has always tended to favor, is to lower prices, to thin the oxygen for your competitors.
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If you have bigger lungs than your competitor, all things being equal, force them to compete in a contest where oxygen is the crucial limiter. If your opponent can't swim, you make them compete in water. If they dislike the cold, set the contest in the winter, on a tundra. You can romanticize all of this by quoting Sun Tzu, but it's just common sense.
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Another advantage to low margin models is increased customer loyalty. Most of the products Amazon sells are commodity items. It's not like buying one brand of car versus another, where you a variety of subjective judgements affect the consumer's choice. The Avengers Blu-ray disc you buy from Amazon is the same one you'll find at Wal-Mart or Best Buy. In that world, the lowest price tends to win. (Moi ici: Voltar ao parágrafo anterior, se não se pode competir pelo preço, competir pela subjectividade, pela exclusividade, pela experiência) In the early years, Amazon routinely lowered either product pricing or shipping pricing. Very few companies lower their prices permanently as time goes by except on depreciating goods, like computers whose value decreases as newer, faster models hit the market.
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If you're the low-cost leader, customers will forgive a lot of sins. That margin of error, like the competitive moat, buys you peace of mind."

Recordar a sequência final de "Preços baixos".

Trechos retirados de "Amazon, Apple, and the beauty of low margins — Remains of the Day"

BTW:

"Given Amazon is still scaling aggressively, I anticipate this cost advantage to increase overtime. Looking at the latest four years of financial data in Google Finance, Amazon’s revenues are growing at a 25.85% CAGR. This contrasts with 8.54% for Costco and 2.54% for Wal-Mart."

Trecho retirado de "Amazon is Pursuing a Cost Advantage, Not Low Margins"

Mais um exemplo da recalibração

A par do efeito da recessão económica neste parâmetro "Quebra do retalho português é a maior da Zona Euro", não esquecer o impacte desta outra realidade "Lojas online disparam 150% em apenas dois anos".
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Um exemplo concreto de que um futuro após retoma económica não será igual ao passado. Estamos perante um corte com o passado a vários níveis.
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Como é que a sua empresa vai abordar esta realidade?

"Portugal é «o elo fraco da União europeia nesta matéria: a sua saúde profissional vai continuar a enfraquecer enquanto a Internet não for considerada como um parceiro económico essencial».
Mais dois terços (67%) das páginas eletrónicas em Portugal não são atualizadas há mais de um ano"

Vendas online

A propósito deste postal "Os indicadores também ficam obsoletos" e do que por aqui se tem escrito sobre o retalho físico e online, talvez seja de ter em conta estes números "Portugueses gastaram 1,6 mil milhões de euros em compras online"

Não apetece fazer humor?

Ontem à noite vi um bocado da série NCIS, a certa altura o agente DiNozzo estava, como é costume, com o seu repertório de conversa da treta, a fazer pouco de alguém, neste caso um agente da Mossad.
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Tentei contextualizar aquela mania dele com a sua profissão... e lembrei-me do que li recentemente em "Deep Survival" de Laurence Gonzales. Ter medo é bom, entrar em pânico é a morte do artista. Como é que quem tem medo pode combater o sentimento de pânico? ~
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Segundo Gonzales, uma das formas mais eficazes de combater a perda de controlo de uma situação que mete medo é... brincar com ela, é apostar no humor:

"The first lesson is to remain calm, not to panic. Because emotions are called “hot cognitions,” this is known as “being cool.”
…Only 10 to 20 percent of people can stay calm and think in the midst of a survival emergency. They are the ones who can perceive their situation clearly; they can plan and take correct action, all of which are key elements of survival. Confronted with a changing environment, they rapidly adapt.
…The first rule is: Face reality. Good survivors aren’t immune to fear. They know what’s happening, and it does “scare the living shit out of” them. It’s all a question of what you do next. ...Survivors “laugh at threats… playing and laughing go together. Playing keeps the person in contact with what is happening around [him].” To deal with reality you must first recognize it as such. … if you let yourself get too serious, you will get too scared, and once that devil is out of the bottle, you’re on a runaway horse. Fear is good [Fear puts me in my place. It gives me the humility to see things as they are]. Too much fear is not."

É interessante relacionar isto com o discurso de quem olha para a realidade e de como a interpreta:

• "Portugal tem a segunda maior queda da UE no comércio a retalho"
• "Portugal regista segunda maior subida mensal das vendas a retalho em maio

Comparem os títulos... comparem os textos.

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Existe realidade? Parece que sim...

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Existe objectividade? Eheheh

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Não apetece fazer humor?

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Será genuíno ou para evitar que o medo se transforme em pânico?

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Ou, talvez para ilustrar a facilidade com que todos nós tomamos decisões influenciados por informação dita factual mas carregada de subjectividade... ehehehhe 

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Razão tem Dan Ariely em "Predictably Irrational - The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions"

que dedica o primeiro capítulo à relatividade das nossas decisões:

"humans rarely choose things in absolute terms. We don't have an internal value meter that tells us how much things are worth. Rather, we focus on the relative advantage of one thing over another, and estimate value accordingly."