Não será porque ...

"If you look at what’s happened in big cities around the U.S. in recent years, it’s easy to think we’re living in Startup Nation. Thanks to the plummeting cost and increased availability of digital tools, as well as greater access to early-stage funding, we’ve seen what the Economist has called a “Cambrian moment,” with digital startups “bubbling up in an astonishing variety of services and products.”
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Meanwhile, though, a host of economic researchers have been telling a much bleaker story: American entrepreneurship is actually on the decline, and has been for decades.
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According to the Commerce Department, the number of new businesses started by Americans has fallen sharply since 2000, and so too has the percentage of American workers working for companies that are less than a year old.
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So has America lost its appetite for risk? Not really. It is true that the number of new businesses has fallen, but much of that decline has been concentrated in what economists call “subsistence” businesses. These are businesses whose founders have no interest in creating a big company.
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A small percentage of new businesses, though, are different: from the start, their ambition is to become big. These businesses are run by “transformational” entrepreneurs
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While Stern and Guzman show that high-growth firms are being formed as actively as ever, they also find that these companies are not succeeding as often as such companies once did. As the researchers put it, “Even as the number of new ideas and potential for innovation is increasing, there seems to be a reduction in the ability of companies to scale in a meaningful and systematic way.” As many seeds as ever are being planted. But fewer trees are growing to the sky.
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Stern and Guzman are agnostic about why this is happening. But one obvious answer suggests itself: the increased power of established incumbents. We may think that we have been living in a business world in which incumbents are always on the verge of being toppled and competitive advantage is more fragile than ever."

Há dias, num dos episódios da série "Endeavour" no canal Fox Crime, um autista era excepcional a desenhar, a pintar, algo que tinha vista uma só vez. No final do episódio, num raro momento de exteriorização o autista confessava: "quem me dera saber criar, ser inovador" (e não um copiador, um recitador da realidade). Lembrei-me logo de algo que li em Gigerenzer "the art of focusing on what’s important and ignoring the rest", acerca de um russo que conseguia citar de memória o conteúdo da página 237 de um livro mas era incapaz de dizer o que queria dizer o que tinha acabado de citar.
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Fico sempre a pensar nestes casos quando leio trechos como os que retirei de "Why Startups Are Struggling". Sigam-me por favor:

1. American entrepreneurship is actually on the decline, and has been for decades.
2. but much of that decline has been concentrated in what economists call “subsistence” businesses. These are businesses whose founders have no interest in creating a big company.
3. A small percentage of new businesses, though, are different: from the start, their ambition is to become big.
4. high-growth firms are being formed as actively as ever, they also find that these companies are not succeeding as often as such companies once did.

Não será porque há mais startups do mesmo tipo a tentar seduzir o mesmo número limitado de potenciais clientes?

Não será porque a realidade acelerou?

Custa-me a crer que sejam os incumbentes.