Parte I, parte II, parte III, parte IV e parte V
"The hidden champions' customers are very demanding and have complex requirements. Fig. 5.3 shows the importance of 13 performance attributes.
...
...The findings indicate that the hidden champions do not have to compete primarily through price. Their customers are far more interested in quality and economy."
Trechos retirados de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon.
"Personalization is not only a crucial capability, it's one that punches above its weight, no matter whether the company is a digital native, a brick-and-mortar player, or a behind-the-scenes producer or supplier.
Consumers don't just want personalization, they demand it. With store and product loyalty more elusive, getting it right matters. Roughly 75 percent of consumers tried a new shopping behavior in the last 18 months, and more than 80 percent of those intend to continue with new behaviors.
Furthermore, our research found that companies that excel at personalization generate 40 percent more revenue from those activities than average players."
Ainda esta semana tive uma interacção com uma empresa... ao fim de muitas barreiras consegui chegar a um humano que resolveu o problema.
Trecho retirado de "The value of getting personalization right-or wrong--is multiplying"
Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV.
Mais um conjunto de lições a reter dos "hidden champions":
"How does a company ascend to world market leadership? Certainly not by staying at home and waiting for customers to call on it. Instead, the hidden champions venture into the world and offer their products wherever their customers are. This process of globalization typically takes generations and requires unending stamina. In the preceding chapter we learned that the hidden champions operate in narrowly defined and therefore relatively small markets. To expand these markets, the hidden champions have chosen globalization as the second pillar of their strategy besides focus. This means that they are narrow in the substance of their business and wide in the regional dimension. The hidden champions' world markets are far larger than their respective home markets.
...
The consequences of narrow market definition are even more pronounced for supernichists and market owners. Even in large countries, niche markets can become tiny. The hidden champions would be doomed to remain small without the possibility of regional expansion. Consequently, globalization is the second pillar of their strategy.
...
The narrow market definition based on application, technology, target group or other criteria is coupled with a wide market definition regarding the regional dimension. These are the two major pillars of the hidden champion strategy: specialization in product and know-how combined with breadth in the regional market coverage, normally on a global scale.
...
The hidden champions have extremely close relationships with their customers, due to the complexity of the products and services they offer. Three-quarters of the companies practice direct sales. Five times as many employees in hidden champion companies have regular contact with customers than in large corporations, leading to the pronounced closeness.
...
Many hidden champions cooperate very closely with their top customers and benefit from them as drivers of performance and as references. The customers' demands are aimed primarily at high performance rather than at low prices. The products and services supplied by the hidden champions offer not only top quality with high-tech content, but also increasingly comprehensive advice and systems solutions. Prices are clearly above market level.
...
The hidden champions' relationships with their customers are close and interactive. The main reason is that, in general, they offer complex product and service programs, often even systems solutions. Such programs cannot be sold off the peg, but require detailed consultation processes."
Trechos retirados de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon.
O primeiro livro de Kaplan e Norton sobre o balanced scorecard (BSC), "The balanced scorecard", foi publicado em 1996.
O segundo, "The strategy-focused organization", foi publicado em 2001. Depois de ler "The strategy-focused organization" despertei para a função do BSC não como instrumento de monitorização, mas como promotor da transformação estratégica das organizações. Quando na BSC Euro Summit de 2004 o terceiro livro foi distribuído, "Strategy Maps", já a ideia em mim estava bem enraizada.
Volto a recordar isto depois de ler "How the Wrong KPIs Doom Digital Transformation", onde sublinhei:
"Most legacy companies treat KPIs as reporting and accounting mechanisms rather than strategic decision drivers; they're used more to keep score than change the game. Clinging to these legacy KPI perspectives gets in the way of successful digital transformation strategies; these KPIs are literally counterproductive.
We argue that KPIs should lead, not track, digital initiatives. Top management must define and communicate both the key performance that is required to execute its strategic plan and the digital capabilities that will enable that performance."
Duas posturas completamente diferentes, como o puxar versus empurrar. Puxar significa estar mentalmente no futuro, a puxar para que a organização faça a transição que transforma esse local imaginário num local real.
"When firms (or persons) assert a purpose, they have to choose between aspiring to help others, and seeking their own self-interest.
...
The largest and most successful firms in the world today... are explicitly obsessed with delivering value to customers,
...
It’s easy to become cynical about business, when we hear outrageous claims made for their products, and the stretching of the truth of how socially responsive their regular business is.
...
Many firms try to strike a balance between exploitation and exploration. The firm is “built to minimize risk and keep people in their boxes and silos,” as business school professor John Kotter writes. People “are working with a system that is designed to get today’s job done—a system that asks most people, usually benignly, to be quiet, take orders, and do their jobs in a repetitive way.” Such a workplace can never be life-inspiring. The answer though is not to add an extraneous purpose on top. The firm has to make co-creation of customer value the central thrust of everything the company does.
...
Managing a big firm today is driven by figures and statistics, for which high-powered brainpower is the sine qua non. Yet such dry analyses are missing the dimension that is necessary to excite customers. Firm must activate their own hearts if they wish to reach the hearts of their staff and their customers and create life-inspiring firms. The brain alone won’t get the job done."
Trechos retirados de "Six Steps To Creating A Life-Inspiring Corporation"
Ontem, 29 de Março de 2022 o Público publicou "Investimento na: auto-estradas ajudou à litoralização e suburbanização do país".
Recordo 26 de Novembro de 2009, este blogue publicou "Folhas na corrente (parte VII)". Mais completo este outro postal de 2018, "Really, karma is a bitch!".
"To be effective, though, goals and metrics need to be clear and simple, and the fewer the better.
...
But we realized that going all in on a KPI without putting some sort of check on it could have serious unintended consequences. We knew that any primary goal had to be bounded by a constraint, as in, "Maximize X without reducing Y.""
Trechos retirados de "The Quest for a Killer KPI".
Parte I e parte II e parte III.
Mais um conjunto de lições a reter dos "hidden champions":
"This example is drawn from Stephen Covey’s The 8th Habit: When workers in an organization were polled, “only 37% said they have a clear understanding of what their organization is trying to achieve and why… Only 1 in 5 was enthusiastic about their team’s and organization’s goals. Only 1 in 5 workers said they have a clear ‘line of sight’ between their tasks and their team’s and organization’s goals… Only 15% felt that their organization fully enables them to execute key goals… Only 20% fully trusted the organization they work for.”
It’s hard, right? We don’t know what the organization does, and it may in fact be many different things that would be hard to miniaturize all together. But with a good analogy, Stephen Covey was able to build a model that worked.
"Imagine if you were coaching 11 people on a soccer team, and only 4 of your players knew which goal they were aiming for. Only 2 of your players cared about which goal was theirs. Only 2 players knew their position and how it related to the team overall. Only 2 players really trusted the coaches and team owners. Only 2 players thought that they were given enough support to play their position as well as they knew they could. Most of your players would be aimlessly kicking a ball around the field.”The office did not produce soccer. But all the results apply to team dynamics we could easily observe in a soccer team. You don’t have to be a deep fan or supporter to have feelings and reactions when you imagine this dysfunctional team. People running in the wrong direction, kicking willy-nilly, ignoring their coaches, lacking the training or support to play their positions—it’s a mess and an embarrassment. And we could expect the organization to have some analogous losses to its ability to function. The soccer analogy just makes it instantly visible, while the problems of a dysfunctional workplace are more slippery and insidious."
Trecho retirado de "Making Numbers Count" de Chip Heath e Karla Starr
Recordar "Niching down" ao ler mais uns trechos de "Hidden Champions":
"One aspect of market definition closely connected with focus relates to the breadth or depth of the product portfolio. Here, we look at the product range and/or the value chain. Breadth refers to the number of different products a company offers.
...
Among the hidden champions, we predominantly see a deep value chain coupled with a narrow definition of the relevant market.
...
[Moi ici: Segue-se um exemplo] "We analyzed the entire market for commercial dishwashers and found that our world market share was well below 5%. We were an insignificant follower. This prompted us to completely realign our strategy. We tailored our services to serve hotels and restaurants exclusively. We even changed the company's name to Winterhalter Gastronom. We now define our business as providing services for clean glassware and chinaware in hotels and restaurants and take full responsibility for this. We have extended our range to include water treatment systems and our own brand of dishwashing agents. We offer excellent, round-the-clock service. Our world market share in the hotels/restaurants segment is now 15%-20% and increasing. In this market segment, we are always first choice."
...
Numerous hidden champions take their market definitions even further and specialize in extremely narrow niches. Some "create" their markets so that there are no real competitors and they have 100% market share.
...
On a world scale, even a superniche like that can have an attractive volume. [Moi ici: Recordar O fim da barreira geográfica] The Swedish firm Poc does not aim for the far larger market for protective motorcycle helmets but has deliberately concentrated on the small segment of protective ski helmets. On the motorcycle helmet market, the company wouldn't stand a chance against strong market leaders like HJC from Korea, but Poc is set to become the global number one in protective ski helmets. Ismet Koyun says, "There is no competition for our technology in the world.""
Trechos retirados de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon.
No último mês já escrevi quatro postais com o mesmo título - O risco de voltar a trabalhar com a China (parte IV).
A China é o banhista gordo. Sair da China provocará/provoca "engarrafamentos" em todo mundo.
Ontem de madrugada, antes de sair de casa, vi este artigo no Financial Times, "BlackRock's Fink says Ukraine war marks end of globalisation":
"Russia's invasion of Ukraine will reshape the world economy and further drive up inflation by prompting companies to pull back from their global supply chains, BlackRock's Larry Fink has warned.
"The Russian invasion of Ukraine has put an end to the globalisation we have experienced over the last three decades," Fink wrote in his annual chairman's letter to shareholders of BlackRock, which oversees $ 10tn as the world's largest asset manager.
...
The letter did not mention any specific country that would be hurt by the shifts, but Fink wrote that "Mexico, Brazil, the United States, or manufacturing hubs in southeast Asia could stand to benefit". Other investors have argued that the last group could substitute for China, where BlackRock last year launched a set of retail investment products."
Entretanto, à hora do almoço vi a capa do JdN e li o artigo "Guerra na Ucrânia trava globalização a fundo"... e só uma vez mencionam a China e indirectamente. Escrever sobre globalização e não falar na China!!! Escrever sobre globalização e reduzi-la a compra de petróleo e matérias-primas à Rússia!!!
Eu tento olhar para a big-picture. Por exemplo, na figura que se segue todos os actores estão no país, excepto os consumidores que podem estar cá ou no estrangeiro:
Qual é, qual deve ser o papel de uma associação empresarial nesta teia de interesses conflituantes?
Em Novembro último publiquei Mea culpa (parte II) onde escrevi:
"Um empresário, um patrão, não tem como responsabilidade mudar o mundo, tem como responsabilidade liderar a sua empresa. Por outro lado, o desafio de a manter à tona é tão grande que raramente encontra tempo para pensar no depois de amanhã, simplesmente reage, o quotidiano é que assume o comando. É cada vez mais difícil encontrar pessoas para trabalhar a receber os salários que pode pagar? Em vez da subida na escala de valor, temos a race to the bottom: Arranjar quem o faça no Brasil, ou na Moldávia ... ou uma prestação de serviços à la Odemira.
Por isso, os portugueses emigram …"
Quando escrevi Moldávia, sabia de uma associação empresarial estar a trabalhar para transferir parte da produção para a Moldávia.
Pergunta sincera, pergunta honesta: Qual é, qual deve ser o papel de uma associação empresarial nesta teia de interesses conflituantes? Apoiar a race to the bottom, ou trabalhar para que se suba na escala de valor, mesmo sabendo que a maioria das empresas no médio prazo não sobreviverá?
Em Novembro o cenário era um.
E em Março de 2022?
A 16 de Março último o Jornal de Notícias publicou o artigo "Calçado perdeu 158 empresas e 4 mil empregos" onde se pode ler:
"Falta de resposta em Portugal está a levar à subcontratação em países como India e Marrocos.
...
A importação de gáspeas (a parte superior do calçado, antes de lhe ser aplicada a respetiva sola) ou até de produto acabado de outros países, nomeadamente da India e, mais recentemente, de Marrocos, tem sido uma das soluções adotadas. E a APICCAPS vai estudar mercados alternativos de forma séria e aprofundada.
"É algo que terá de ser pensado em termos de futuro. Não digo que esta é a estratégia do setor, porque essa será sempre a de centrar a produção em Portugal, que é onde está o valor competitivo, mas não podemos fechar a porta a nenhum tipo de negócio neste momento", frisa João Maia, em declarações a JN/Dinheiro à Vivo, à margem de mais uma edição da Micam, a maior feira de calçado do Mundo, que terminou ontem em Milão."
Como consultor trabalho para ajudar uma empresa a atingir os seus objectivos.
Pergunta sincera, pergunta honesta: Qual é, qual deve ser o papel de uma associação empresarial nesta teia de interesses conflituantes? E em função dos papéis que assume, qual deve ser o apoio dado por um governo a essa associação?
Quando em "Calçado precisa de dois a três mil trabalhadores" no Jornal de Notícias de 13 de Março último leio as palavras de Luis Onofre, presidente da APICCAPS:
"Os preços do calçado "vão inevitavelmente ter que aumentar", embora não tenha estimativas dessa subida, por depender de cada artigo. O problema é convencer os clientes. "Os aumentos, sobretudo dos custos energéticos, têm sido brutais e influenciam muito o preço final do sapato, mas os clientes não aceitam aumentos. Não conseguem, ainda, perceber a real dimensão da situação"
Fico a pensar ... Qual é, qual deve ser o papel de uma associação empresarial nesta teia de interesses conflituantes?
"What About Processes?
The key to all of this debate for the present day is the inability of some innovating organizations to ever get sufficiently close to their customers to really know what they want. That’s when heroes are needed, especially in organizations that are seen as being inflexible, often when involved in the production of high-volume, standardized offerings, or what Eric von Hipple refers to as “manufacturer-dominated” firms. This takes us directly back to Steve Blank’s observation that organizations whose processes are not designed for non-standard work, require individuals to move these organizations into market responses that they would otherwise not consider. Innovation heroics are, indeed, a symptom of a lack of preparedness for surprise, and as surprise becomes more frequent, as the unfamiliar becomes more present, and as time to market continues to shorten, something needs to be added to organizational culture to reduce a reliance upon what would otherwise require an inexhaustible supply of candidate heroes. Let’s be clear, however, that what we are looking for are neither heroes, nor processes; heroes are an admission of process failure, and most processes are not sufficiently flexible for whatever the future is likely to bring.
...
What is needed is a shared understanding of principles that authorize a natural way for the organization to allow unscheduled innovation to happen, and a trust in the employees to make the right choices. This is not heroic, and processes are not involved, either. Instead, it is a combination of beliefs, understanding and staff buy-ins so that the organization is prepared to take surprises in stride."
Trechos retirados de "A New Look For Innovation: Less Heroes, Fewer Processes"
"A NGPT, com sede em Felgueiras, fez uma parceria alicerçada na certeza de que "não ter fábrica é uma vantagem, até quando falta mão de obra como no momento atual. Como subcontratamos, só temos de estar atentos e mudar rapidamente de fornecedor", diz."
Quem feio ama, bonito lhe parece.
Acredito que nos próximos anos a procura pela produção na Europa vai crescer ainda mais, cada vez mais procura de capacidade de produção para marcas, cada vez mais poder para os fabricantes.
Que subcontratados aceitam trabalhar para um parceiro que os trata como dispensáveis? Estas coisas, mesmo que se pensem não devem ser ditas.
Esta prática pode ser vantajosa ou não. Tudo depende da orientação estratégica da marca, e do preço que estiver disposta a pagar num mercado em que a oferta tem mais força.
Trecho retirado de "Após a corrida ao papel higiénico, há uma lição que o negócio dos sapatos pode tirar"
Foco, foco, foco...
"How Hidden Champions Define Their MarketsThere are numerous ways to define a market or a business. The oldest version is based on the product: "We operate in the market for dishwashers." This product-oriented definition was heavily criticized by Theodore Levitt in the groundbreaking article Marketing Myopia in 1960. Levitt's criticism of the American railroad companies has become famous. According to Levitt, their definition of their market as "railroads" and not *passenger transport" meant that they overlooked the emerging competition from airlines....The market definition demanded by Levitt is based on customer needs or application.[Moi ici: Recordo logo Think “outcome before output”] "We make clean dishes our business" would be a needs-oriented definition for a dishwasher manufacturer. In addition, markets can be determined by reference to customer or target groups. Staying with our example, this would be: "We supply hotels and restaurants with dishwashing systems.' For example, the CEO of Brother, Seichi Hirata, made the following precise market definition according to target group, "Our main target group is the segment of small offices, home offices and small and midsize companies. We know this business very well and focus on it."Our competitors cover all segments. We don't." [Moi ici: É preciso ter muita coragem para não seguir atrás dos concorrentes] Brother achieved market leadership with its office machines in this segment as a result of the narrow market definition....With their market definitions the hidden champions of the twenty-first century generally show a very modern understanding of the market. Customer needs and target groups clearly top the list....The hidden champions have grown beyond the narrow boundaries of their regions of origin. They view the world as their market, not their country or region. [Moi ici: Recordar "Nichos, co-criação e intimidade à escala" com a lição alemão e o fim da geografia]...If we asked a hidden champion selected at random to state the key to its success, the most likely answer would be "We specialize in ...""
"Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon
"Toda esta disrupção na cadeia de abastecimento é uma conjugação de factores que designei de tempestade perfeita, porque na realidade tudo se abateu, em simultâneo, sobre uma indústria que estava a crescer nas suas exportações e fez um ano com 14%. Porque, simultaneamente, o aumento destes custos não foi transferido, com excepção de alguns que são absolutamente incontornáveis, nomeadamente aqueles que não têm marca.Porque todos os produtos assentes numa marca têm muito mais dificuldade na passagem ao mercado destes aumentos."
Alguma coisa vai mal numa marca que tem mais dificuldade em aumentar preços do que uma não-marca.
Ouso dizer que um dos papéis de uma marca é o de poder praticar preços superiores, porque é diferente, porque responsabiliza, porque salienta, …
Nos primeiros anos deste século, um grupo de alunos da Letónia com alguns professores vieram a Portugal para uma visita de estudo que durou uma semana. Uma das professoras ficou em casa da minha mãe. A senhora ganhava bem para o nível de então na Letónia, 300 euros por mês.
Vejam a evolução do salário médio na Letónia nos últimos 25 anos:
"Enquanto os encalhados macro-economistas defendem que só com a descida de salários as empresas exportadoras ficam mais competitivas..."
"The invasion of Ukraine by Russia and sanctions imposed on it for doing so and new pandemic-related shutdowns in China are the latest events to rock global supply chains. Combined with the China-U.S. trade war and other pandemic- and climate-related disruptions, it is certain to accelerate the movement by Western companies to reduce their dependency on China for components and finished goods and on Russia for transportation and raw materials and to lead to more localized, or regional, sourcing strategies. If China decides to back Russia in the Ukraine conflict, it would only fuel that movement....In 2019, just before the pandemic, China accounted for 28.7% of global manufacturing output while the United States accounted for 16.8%In the last four years, however, the China-U.S. trade war and the supply chain disruptions generated by the pandemic and climate-related events have caused the pace of supply-chain localization to rise significantly. In fact, a January 2020 survey of 3,000 firms, motivated by the China-U.S. trade war, found that companies in a variety of industries — including semiconductors, autos, and medical equipment — had shifted, or planned to shift, at least part off their supply chains from current locations. Companies in about half of all global sectors in North America declared an intent to “reshore.”...The Ukraine war and closer alignment of China and Russia will modify profoundly the exchange of energy, raw materials, industrial parts, and goods between the Western world, China, and Russia and promise to accelerate the reshoring trend."
Ao iniciar a leitura de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon encontrei este trecho:
"When times get tough, the weaker competitors tend to buckle under pressure. This in turn provides the stronger contenders with the opportunity to expand their market position."
Ontem ao ler "What Your Company Can Learn From Southwest Airlines" sublinhei:
"During the 2008 global financial crisis, I had a particularly instructive conversation with a SWA employee. On that morning, I happened to be working in Dallas and flying Southwest. On the TV at the gate, a local news reporter was reading a list of massive airline layoffs. But they never mentioned Southwest. Feeling good as an investor, I noted my relief to the gate agent. She smiled and said, "Want to know why we aren't laying off anyone?" I nodded.
She continued, "A rainy day eventually comes. We've been preparing for this for decades. All the other airlines are loaded with debt--they have no choice but to let people go. But we've been putting money aside, and now we're spending it. In fact, we just opened new operations--would you like to know in which cities?" The gate agent spoke like a CEO. I was looking at the manifestation of economic understanding, transparency, and employee participation."
E recordei "Safe-Fail, NOT Fail-Safe - Alicia Juarrero" - "-THERE WILL BE TURBULENCE!" por isso, safe-fail ou O não-fragilista prepara-se para os problemas ou O fragilismo.
Muita gente em lugares de poder olha para o mundo e vê:
Os poucos, precavidos, olham para o mesmo mundo e sabem que ele é assim:
Por volta de 2007/2008 li a primeira edição do livro "Hidden Champions" de Hermann Simon. Agora comprei a versão mais recente, "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de 2009.
"How do the hidden champions deal with downturns and crises? The majority seems to actually profit from difficult conditions. Half of the respondents took the view that they survive downturns better than their industry as a whole. Most respondents said that this was definitely true of past downturns and that they expect no changes in this respect. Market shares are newly distributed in difficult market phases, not in favorable economic times. When times get tough, the weaker competitors tend to buckle under pressure. This in turn provides the stronger contenders with the opportunity to expand their market position. [Moi ici: Isto faz-me recordar a minha velha metáfora das salamandras, e que é o excesso dos tempos bons que mata durante os tempos maus] This model is similar to that propounded by the evolutionist Stephen Jay Gould. In his so-called "punctuated equilibria" theory, he asserted that evolution is not a continuous process, but rather occurs in leaps. There are long periods with minimal mutations followed by brief phases with abrupt changes. This hypothesis could well apply to markets in general and to the hidden champions in particular...."Sustained success is largely a matter of focusing regularly on the right things and making a lot of uncelebrated improvements every day."...Every firm should be open to learn from successful companies. Until now, this process has mainly been a one-way street running from the large, well-known corporations down to the midsize and smaller firms. About 90% of all case studies deal with large corporations. In other words, only the big companies purportedly have something to teach. It is time to reverse this learning process. As we will see In this book, even large corporations have a lot to learn from the hidden champions." [Moi ici: Muitas vezes aqui no blogue escrevi sobre isto. Gerentes de PMEs lêem o que as empresas grandes fazem, porque só elas têm eco nos media, e pensam que o que serve para as grandes (será que serve?), também serve para as suas PMEs. O que quase sempre dá asneira. Precisam de estratégias diferentes pois servem clientes diferentes]
"The string of statistics in the first example doesn’t cohere and doesn’t produce much insight.But when the numbers take the shape of one human, we can start to feel and understand their implications. We don’t empathize with a marketing demographic; we empathize with a person. We have vast experience with stepping into a story, from our first picture books to the last Hollywood movie we watched. But we’ve never been trained to step into a distribution. A prototype can embody a ream of data, yet remind us that the data merely represents our real customer—one whose children pitch tantrums in grocery stores just like ours do.You have to do the right analysis to get the right answer. But when you convey the right answer, you don’t have to use the numbers you used to get the right answer. In fact, the most perfect translations of the numbers may have no numbers at all."
Um discurso perigoso...
"Do plástico para os saltos às borrachas para as solas, passando pelos fios e pelas peles, a indústria do calçado está a ficar com as margens cada vez mais esmagadas porque “os clientes não estão a aceitar aumentos” de preços. Ao mesmo tempo, começam a chegar as primeiras faturas de eletricidade com valores cinco vezes mais elevados.
...
O grande problema é que os clientes não estão a aceitar aumentos. É muito difícil. Aliás, tenho ouvido respostas – e de grandes grupos – como ‘vocês têm de inventar soluções dentro da vossa empresa para que sejam mais produtivos’. A minha primeira reação, com alguns nervos, é dizer-lhes: ‘então venham para aqui e tentem fazê-lo’. Além disso, estamos com um problema de falta de mão-de-obra e arranjar tecnologia para implementar nas empresas não se consegue fazer de um dia para o outro.
...
Reconheço que o salário mínimo em Portugal continua a ser muito baixo. Estou de acordo que seja aumentado, mas a produtividade também tem de aumentar – e isso não tem acontecido. Devia crescer mais em função da produtividade. E os próprios trabalhadores são a favor disso. Ou seja, quanto melhor fizermos, mais temos de receber no final. O problema com estas subidas dos últimos anos é que todos os escalões que estão acima começam a ficar muito próximos e isso cria uma instabilidade social muito grande [dentro das empresas]. Mas se fossemos aumentar [os restantes] em proporção, tornava-se difícil de manter a indústria."
Recuo a 2011 e a "Não é impunemente que se diz mal".
Foco-me naquela frase "a indústria do calçado está a ficar com as margens cada vez mais esmagadas porque “os clientes não estão a aceitar aumentos” de preços" e lembro-me de A importância das margens e de:
"O ganho médio dos trabalhadores do setor passou de 623 euros, em 2009, para 871, em 2019, o último ano disponível, o que representa um aumento de 40%."
"Trabalha-se o numerador. Segue-se a lição de Marn e Rosiello, há que subir preços da única forma que um mercado competitivo permite, apostando em produtos de maior valor acrescentado, apostando na concorrência imperfeita. Não sei, confesso a minha ignorância, mas talvez criando experiências empresariais que desenvolvam produtos tecnológicos ou farmacêuticos à custa do leite, não necessariamente alimentares. Recordo as escamas do bacalhau islandês e as folhas das videiras."
Sim, eu sei o que costumo escrever aqui: os macacos não voam, trepam às árvores!
Entretanto, estava a preparar-me para sair para a Missa de Domingo quando deparo com este texto, "Kirin looks beyond beer with $870mn push into healthcare and pharma". Um produtor de cerveja, a braços com a quebra do consumo decorrente do Inverno demográfico e da crescente imagem negativa das bebidas alcoólicas no Japão, quer usar a techmogia e know-how sobre o processo de fermentação alcoólica em experiências biotecnológicas, para dar um novo rumo à empresa.
"Kirin will invest about ¥100bn ($870mn) in its healthcare and pharmaceutical businesses over the next three years, as the Japanese brewer pushes beyond the shrinking beer market at home and setbacks to its core businesses in Asia.
...
'If the beer segment would grow forever, it would've been better for us to focus on it, because making a challenge in a new business is very tough," he said.
...
'We want to turn Kirin into a fermentation biotechnology company. We need to grow a new business while the beer segment is still healthy," he added.
...
Kirin wants to use the technology of the beer-making process, in which sugars are converted by yeast to alcohol, in its biotech ventures."
"I'd argue that processes critically important for an organization's existence define its evolution. If something is existentially important, those providing it will have more leverage. And former strongmen become irrelevant. ...Ergo. Economic processes aren't neutral power-wise. That's a major factor in the evolution of power structures. That would also explain why many in power would sabotage economic development. If it's too complex for them to administer, it will change the power balance, not in their favor."
Ontem dei uma vista de olhos a um semanário e encontrei um artigo de José Martino intitulado "Agros: que futuro?".
Entretanto, hoje pensei nele e numa perspectiva que não me ocorreu inicialmente.
Olhar o touro de frente ... sem paninhos quentes, sem subterfúgios, olhar para o contexto, olhar para os números, olhar para os factos, e comunicar com verdade. Sim, é certo que sempre haverá quem acredite no Pai Natal, sempre haverá quem esteja contra a troika e o corte de salários:
Há anos que escrevo aqui sobre o leite e não sou meigo para os produtores. Operam num sector onde ganha quem tiver o preço mais baixo. O leite é a commodity por excelência no sector alimentar. (Algo que aprendi no livro "Retailization - Brand Survival in the Age of Retailer Power":."Milk is the ultimate low-involvement category, and it shows. Only 10% of the international sample (in Denmark, Germany and Spain the number is less than 5%) would expect the private label version to be of a lesser quality.")
Operar num sector como o leite implica viver no mundo da Red Queen: “Here you must run faster and faster to get nowhere at all!”
Operar num sector como o leite implica viver num mundo como o das startups que procuram crescer desalmadamente. Quantas vacas tem uma exploração-tipo em Portugal? Não tenho números recentes. 60? 80? Pensem nos custos por litro de leite numa exploração com 30 000 vacas. Pensem nesta evolução nos EUA e pensem no que se passará na Alemanha, Holanda e Bélgica.
Primeiro, alguns recortes do artigo:
"Os produtores de leite bovino estão sob stress extremo na atividade agrícola que desenvolvem, porque, se antes já tinham deficiência financeira de 8 a 10 cêntimos por litro de leite produzido, agora, a seca severa a extrema que assola Portugal acarreta menores produções de forragens, menos alimentos produzidos nas explorações agrícolas, mais, com a guerra na Ucrânia têm combustíveis, energia e fatores de produção mais caros (fertilizantes, forragens, concentrados para alimentação animal, etc.), certamente que o valor do défice será maior e terá variações semanais porque o encarecimento dos inputs para a agricultura faz-se semana a semana.
Não há dúvida de que o valor que o produtor de leite necessita para equilibrar a sua conta de exploração terá de ser pago pela indústria de laticínios, sendo maioritária a detida pelo setor cooperativo.
...
A Agros foi fundada em 1949, emprega 195 pessoas e registou em 2020 mais de 3,2 milhões de euros de lucros.
...
[Moi ici: Pelos vistos a cooperativa Agros está em processo eleitoral. Daí este trecho que se segue] Na minha opinião, está a ser muito interessante este processo eleitoral porque há um combate no terreno dos candidatos em conquistar delegado a delegado, voto a voto, no objetivo de vencer as eleições, uma oportunidade para colocar ao serviço dos produtores de leite "os milhões de euros que estão entre o produtor e a Lactogal"
Ontem escrevi sobre o contexto e o futuro no Linkedin. Depois li "Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable". Alguns apontamentos:
"We suggest the following six ways in which business leaders can use fallible forecasts to gain actionable insights.
1. Look at many forecasts, not one.
Studies show that an expert’s individual judgement is often no better than a random guess, whereas combining multiple, independent judgments is more likely to yield an accurate answer. Looking at forecasts in aggregate can reveal the wisdom of the crowd.
2. Look at underlying variables. [Moi ici: Recordar
Com vinte e muitos meses de antecedência, Outra previsão acertada, 27 meses depois,
assistia do seu acampamento, amedrontado, acobardado, aos desafios arrogantes do gigante Golias e... ]Even where there is a spread of forecasts, the collection of forecasts can signal a common set of critical variables or underlying trends.
3. Look at areas of convergence and divergence.
Forecasts with high convergence could be viewed as more likely potential futures for placing conservative bets. Alternatively, diverging forecasts could be seen as alternative potential futures for placing maverick bets, given the outsized value of anticipating or precipitating futures others do not foresee.
4. Look for white space.
Which topics are notably absent from public discourse? [Moi ici: Acho esta particularmente relevante para Portugal. Parece sempre vigorar uma Omertà entre um certo poder e os meios de comunicação social, para não tocar em certos temas] Identifying these can enable you to find white spaces where early-mover advantages are possible, and where you are more likely to have the power to shape future opportunities to your advantage.
5. Look at how predicted trends may shape the nature of competitive advantage.
Often forecasts stop at predicting what will happen. Go one step further to consider the implied impact on how companies will compete. Think about how your company could secure advantage and ways to adapt your strategy to match.
6. Assess your organization’s future readiness.
Consider your organization’s preparedness and resilience for different future scenarios based on the forecasts — considering those with high impact, even if their probabilities are low. Areas of divergence can help identify the scenarios you should be constructing.
Forecasts are oft misunderstood and underutilized, but they can be a powerful tool when approached critically and thoughtfully. Executives who identify the hidden truths within false forecasts may gain a better understanding of the present and perceive early indicators of the future, giving them a leg up in gaining and maintain competitive advantage."
Há semanas escrevemos uns postais sobre a falta de pessoas para trabalhar em Portugal:
"More than half of Americans surveyed who quit their jobs amid the “Great Resignation” of 2021 are now earning more money and have a better work life balance"
O regime de arrendamento faz do sector da habitação um motor para a cristalização das pessoas em Portugal.
