Uma provocação

Ontem em País de funcionários, de kits, de monumentos à treta, de diletantismo abordei a conversa da treta sobre a produtividade. Chamei a atenção para o "The "flying geese" model", que pressupõe a morte de umas empresas para dar lugar a outras. 

Imaginem que o país conseguia subir na escala de valor ... reduziam-se os fundos comunitários... e como é que a malta das fumarolas iria sobreviver?:

"Mancur Olson conceptualized state as a gang. In its early stages, it's a roving bandit: a criminal group that kills burns and pillages not caring of negative externals. But when it settles down, it becomes a less destructive stationary bandit. That paves a way for civilization.

Many consider Olson's theory as merely an analytical tool. I disagree. It seems that many empires, like Romans or Ottomans in their very beginnings, were quite literally bandit gangs. That's why we have so few records from their beginnings. They didn't care about records back them

Well, in this context it seems that a cartel like Jalisco [Moi ici: Um cartel que controla a produção de abacates no México] is a proto-state. In fact, it has many state attributes and might not be so different from medieval "states" which we retrospectively glorify. That's understandable. But why avocados? Why not chairs, not smartphone apps?

Mafia is quite simple. It can't administer something complicated without either destroying the production completely or evolving to something that wouldn't be a mafia anymore. If they entered machinery production, for example, they would either go bankrupt or stop being a mafia.

Imagine if they entered some complicated business and had to directly engage an into a Schumpeterian Creative Destruction. Soon they would have to recruit nerds. Then promote them. And eventually, the balance of power *within* the mafia gang would irreversibly change in favor of nerds

I'd argue that processes critically important for an organization's existence define its evolution. If something is existentially important, those providing it will have more leverage. And former strongmen become irrelevant. That's how many mafias of old evolved into something different.

Ergo. Economic processes aren't neutral power-wise. That's a major factor in the evolution of power structures. That would also explain why many in power would sabotage economic development. If it's too complex for them to administer, it will change the power balance, not in their favor.

That's why cartels choose avocado. It's resource extraction providing tradable goods for export. Perfect forage base for a mafia. They get them through violence & threats. So they must project violent, unpredictable image. 

That's why cartels do so much seemingly needless violence. It's not "irrational" as some idiots who never ran a proper cartel would presume. It's perfectly rational. Violent image is a means of production for these guys. If they don't look scary, who's gonna give them avocados?"

Trechos retirados dos twitts de @kamilkazani a 08.03.2022