Previsões e cenários

Ontem escrevi sobre o contexto e o futuro no Linkedin. Depois li "Business Forecasts Are Reliably Wrong — Yet Still Valuable". Alguns apontamentos:

"We suggest the following six ways in which business leaders can use fallible forecasts to gain actionable insights.

1. Look at many forecasts, not one.

Studies show that an expert’s individual judgement is often no better than a random guess, whereas combining multiple, independent judgments is more likely to yield an accurate answer. Looking at forecasts in aggregate can reveal the wisdom of the crowd.

2. Look at underlying variables. [Moi ici: Recordar 

Com vinte e muitos meses de antecedência, Outra previsão acertada, 27 meses depois,   

assistia do seu acampamento, amedrontado, acobardado, aos desafios arrogantes do gigante Golias e... ]

Even where there is a spread of forecasts, the collection of forecasts can signal a common set of critical variables or underlying trends.

3. Look at areas of convergence and divergence.

Forecasts with high convergence could be viewed as more likely potential futures for placing conservative bets. Alternatively, diverging forecasts could be seen as alternative potential futures for placing maverick bets, given the outsized value of anticipating or precipitating futures others do not foresee.

4. Look for white space.

Which topics are notably absent from public discourse? [Moi ici: Acho esta particularmente relevante para Portugal. Parece sempre vigorar uma Omertà entre um certo poder e os meios de comunicação social, para não tocar em certos temas] Identifying these can enable you to find white spaces where early-mover advantages are possible, and where you are more likely to have the power to shape future opportunities to your advantage.

5. Look at how predicted trends may shape the nature of competitive advantage.

Often forecasts stop at predicting what will happen. Go one step further to consider the implied impact on how companies will compete. Think about how your company could secure advantage and ways to adapt your strategy to match.

6. Assess your organization’s future readiness.

Consider your organization’s preparedness and resilience for different future scenarios based on the forecasts — considering those with high impact, even if their probabilities are low. Areas of divergence can help identify the scenarios you should be constructing.

Forecasts are oft misunderstood and underutilized, but they can be a powerful tool when approached critically and thoughtfully. Executives who identify the hidden truths within false forecasts may gain a better understanding of the present and perceive early indicators of the future, giving them a leg up in gaining and maintain competitive advantage."