Outro festival de blasfémias

Continuado daqui.

Agarre-se às cadeiras, segue-se mais um festival de blasfémias:

"The alternate to costly multipurpose or special-order machines is inexpensive, slower, and fewer-purpose machines, but many of them. Every work cell that needs one gets one and can then function autonomously. Although a multipurpose machine offers high flexibility through quick changeover and rapid production rate, all else equal, conventional fewer-purpose machines might provide even greater flexibility when employed in a number of manufacturing cells. Conventional machines are also simpler to operate and less costly to maintain.”[Moi ici: Pode estar aqui uma oportunidade para os fabricantes portugueses de máquinas?]
Constraining that three-pronged potential, however, is the tendency of manufacturers to retain SP practices in spite of their limited responsiveness. Such dysfunctional decision making ... tends to be chosen for local efficiency rather than effectiveness - remains in force today.
Several authors emphasize the importance of avoiding monument equipment consider the potentially negative impact on responsiveness of smoothing the production schedule as commonly
...
concurrent production relies on multiple, relatively slow-paced, simple, small-footprint, low-cost productive units, sometimes referred to as right-sized
...
As the number of production units increases, so does the degree to which production becomes concurrent with demand; and as the degree to which equipment units are dedicated increases, so does concurrency.
...
“Abolish the Setup,” points to the liabilities of “a single, expensive machine that can produce many kinds of parts,” compared with several less-expensive, dedicated machines.
Small, inexpensive units of capacity can be readily reconfigured, which grows in importance as customer preferences proliferate.
...
CP builds factory infrastructures around multiple product-family or customer-family-focused units - cells, machines, production lines, plants-in-a-plant - with simple, compact, low- cost, “right-sized” equipment and avoidance of monument-sized equipment. The primary objectives of CP are to reduce customer lead times and distribution inventories. Longer-range benefits to the organization as a whole include better customer retention, market penetration, and sales growth. In an era when customers increasingly demand higher variety from manufacturers, CP is timely, making it possible to reap the benefits of responsiveness while keeping production costs low enough for competitiveness."

Trechos retirados de "Missing link in competitive manufacturing research and practice: Customer-responsive concurrent production" publicado por Journal of Operations Management 49-51 (2017) 83-87

"associar-se a um propósito"

Ontem, quando li o título "As marcas já não querem só vender produto, querem vender um propósito." lembrei-me logo de dois postais:

• "you need to enter their personal story"
• Mambo jambo de consultor ou faz algum sentido?

E lembrando-me do job to be done e "Your customers care about the progress they will make" escrevi no Twitter:

"As marcas já ñ querem vender só um produto. Querem vender um propósito"

IMHO ñ é bem isto.

Creio q é +: Querem associar-se a 1 propósito

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) August 3, 2017

Em vez de querer vender um propósito, associar-se a um propósito que o cliente já persegue e valoriza

Em busca de um novo oásis

"Portugal está a perder terreno face a Itália no que à produção e exportação de calçado diz respeito.
...
é no preço médio que a diferença se acentua: 26,09 dólares por par, pouco mais de metade dos 47,76 euros a que são exportados os sapatos italianos."

Quando li este trecho, meio a correr, pensei logo na evolução do perfil da produção portuguesa como forma de justificar esta evolução. Recordar a série "Comparações enganadoras"

Depois, quando li com atenção o resto artigo encontrei uma comparação mais útil:

"no calçado de couro, o fosso face a Itália agravou-se: os sapatos italianos de couro são exportados, em média, a 63,78 dólares, mais 2,28 dólares do que em 2015, enquanto os portugueses não vão além dos 31,16 dólares, praticamente o mesmo valor do ano anterior."

Como é que o artigo explica esta evolução?

"“uma parte significativa do diferencial de preços” é explicado pelo facto de Itália ter uma posição muito superior à portuguesa nos mercados extracomunitários, que registam, habitualmente, preços médios de exportação superiores aos europeus." 

Esta explicação parece-me tão simplista...

Em interessante conversa com alguém que pensa o sector encontrei explicações muito mais plausíveis, IMHO.

O calçado português com marca própria, embora tenha um peso muito baixo na quantidade produzida, tem um preço à saída da fábrica bem mais alto. Onde se vendem essas marcas? No retalho tradicional. O que é que está a acontecer ao retalho tradicional? Recordo este trecho que escrevi em Abril passado:

"A evolução do retalho é um tema que me interessa porque é super importante para as PME com que trabalho. A maioria das PME portuguesas não tem marca própria relevante. Ou produzem para marcas de outros ou produzem componentes que serão incorporados nas marcas de outros (B2B2C ou B2B2B2C).
.
Assim, o seu futuro depende em larga escala, segundo o modelo de negócio actual, do sucesso da última interacção da cadeia, aquele ...B2C. Se esta última interacção falhar, tal como falharam em massa as sapatarias de rua quando chegaram os centros comerciais, as nossas PME terão um problema em mãos."

 A revolução do retalho tradicional disrupciona as cadeias de fabrico.

Primeira explicação: a disfunção do retalho tradicional. Se os clientes dos clientes deixam de comprar, os fornecedores ficam sem procuram.

Segunda explicação: o impacte do reshoring e a tentação pelo caminho mais fácil.

"O regresso da produção industrial à Europa vai voltar a colocar em cima da mesa a hipótese de apostar no low-cost. E o low-cost parece tão intuitivo, tão atraente..."

Ainda esta semana um empresário me contava que um seu cliente tinha recebido um encomenda muito grande de meios de produção para o fabrico de calçado. Algo que relacionei com uma visita de há alguns meses de alguém que procurava empregas muito grandes em Portuga para produzir calçado.

Neste momento, a primeira explicação é a que mais me preocupa. Daí a escolha da expressão "placa teutónica" e o recurso à imagem do equilíbrio pontuado. O mundo mudou e agora é preciso correr atrás do prejuízo para voltar a encontrar um novo oásis.

BTW, uma terceira explicação o abandono do couro.


Trechos retirados de "Preço do calçado português é quase metade do italiano"

O anónimo da província estava certo!

Mais um texto em linha com o que aqui defendemos há anos com base na nossa experiência empírica.  Enquanto os membros da tríade (académicos fechados nas suas torres de marfim, comentadores económicos e políticos) continuam a falar de competitividade com base no século XX e, por isso, estão prisioneiros do eficientismo e das manigâncias com a cotação da moeda, há um outro mundo:

"The manufacturing arm of operations management (OM) has limited itself to a narrow vision of what this key organizational function is supposed to be and do. OM scholars have quibbled about efficiency in factory and supply-chain operations, while giving little attention to tying production forward to end customers. Our view is that this single-minded focus on efficiency has effectively knocked OM research, theory, topics, methods, measures, and practitioner guidance off kilter.
On the industry side, a narrow view of OM mirrors the single- minded focus that we observe in academia. Manufacturers proudly display factories that have been cleared of targeted wastes and are marvels of short flow times, low work-in-process in- ventories, and high capacity utilization. They may also point to similar achievements with key suppliers. A closer look, however, often reveals a supply chain with extended lead times [Moi ici: Aposto que, como eu, não sabia que o Toyota Production System, essa maravilha de organização e eficiência (sem ironia) congela a previsão de produção com 8 semanas de antecedência] and swollen finished-goods inventories that dwarf the low in-plant inventories. The overall supply chain often loses the ability to compete on anything except cost. The resulting vulnerability to low-cost competition leads to offshoring.
Inability to synchronize with downstream demand increases production cost through supply-demand mismatches, delays in addressing quality issues - even mass product recalls, and customer defections. These negative outcomes are commonplace even in factories held up as bastions of “best practices”.
...
A major deterrent to CP [Moi ici: Concurrent production] adoption is the tendency both in companies and among the OM academic community to focus on localized efficiency to the neglect of responsiveness in fulfilling customer needs. Manufacturing people have limited interaction with final users, so the cost of valuing efficiency above responsiveness goes unnoticed. In consequence, manufacturing-improvement efforts tend to be limited to pursuit of within-factory efficiencies: short internal flows, smoothed sched- ules, and high capacity utilization.
...
manufacturers in their quest for operational efficiency prefer factory operatives to be always busy making products. CP, on the other hand, welcomes the situation in which both equipment and its operators are idle for lack of current demand.
...
Another managerial mindset that hinders CP implementation is the assumption that it is better to reduce changeover times on a single piece of equipment than to duplicate that equipment. Along similar lines, we have seen manufacturers replacing multiple units with a single large, flexible piece of equipment. ... done for the sake of “... improved efficiency and productivity”. This way of thinking culminates in “monument” machines: high-speed, multi-functional equipment that gives the impression of being extremely efficient. ... that engineers “... typically think at the process level,” seeking efficiencies “... by combining operations with[in] a single piece of equipment.” This “can cause a disconnect with general management who want to increase sales, make gains in market share, or find new sources of revenue by adding product lines.”"

Agora metam neste cenário os fanáticos da automatização que só pensam no eficientismo e se esquecem de Mongo: rapidez, flexibilidade e variedade crescente para servir tribos cada vez mais exigentes.

Continua.

Trechos retirados de "Missing link in competitive manufacturing research and practice: Customer-responsive concurrent production" publicado por Journal of Operations Management 49-51 (2017) 83-87

Um preço é um palpite!

O @icyView no Twitter chamou-me a atenção para este texto "Fairness or efficiency?" que mereceu este comentário da minha parte:

Quando é que as pessoas vão aprender que o preço não resulta de uma equação? Quando é que as pessoas vão perceber que o preço não depende do custo? Quando é que as pessoas vão aprender que o preço não é justo nem injusto? Quando é que as pessoas vão aprender que um preço é um palpite?

E os palpites são verdadeiros ou falsos hoje e, depois, falsos ou verdadeiros amanhã. Por isso, gosto da frase: os preços são contextuais. Porque os preços são contextuais, recomendo às empresas que contribuam para  o contexto:

• Preço e JTBD são contextuais
• "how prices are framed and the context of the purchase significantly influence our willingness to pay"
• Conservas e pricing

Análise de risco à la FMI

Será que isto pode ser útil para quem quiser investir um pouco mais na abordagem baseada no risco?

Risco - o que a incerteza pode gerar se não mexermos.

Oportunidade - o que podemos ambicionar se mexermos?


Imagem retirada de "Italy : 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Italy"

Um festival de blasfémias!!!

Em "Talvez o tema que mais nos separa dos níveis de produtividade do resto da Europa Ocidental" incluí esta figura:

Curioso, fui à procura do último livro do John Mullins referido na entrevista.
Encontrei "The Customer-Funded Business: Start, Finance, or Grow Your Company with Your Customers’ Cash". Um festival de blasfémias, tal o distanciamento face à cultura mainstream acerca das startups e do empreendedorismo, transformada num concurso de beleza para cativar investidores e financiadores em detrimento da cativação de clientes.

Esta manhã, entre as 7h30 e as 8h30 tive a oportunidade de ler o primeiro e o oitavo capítulos:

"I believe raising equity at the outset of a new venture’s journey is, at least most of the time, an exceedingly bad idea—for both entrepreneurs and investors alike.
...
[Moi ici: Segue-se um argumento que há anos uso no Twitter, sobre o tema] waiting to raise capital forces the entrepreneur’s atten- tion toward his or her customers, where it should be in the first place.
...
making do with the probably modest amounts of cash your customers will give you enforces frugality, rather than waste. Having too much money can make you stupid and lets you ignore your customer! Having less money will make you smarter, and will force you to run your business better, too.
...
focusing your efforts to raise cash from customers who are willing and eager to buy from your yet-unproven com- pany is likely to mercifully put to rest a half-baked or not- quite-right idea that requires more development—a pivot, in today’s entrepreneurial lexicon—in order to hit the mark.
...
“We think that you shouldn’t start with the assumption that you need to raise money . . . Huge companies have been created with little or no outside investment.”
...

• Raising capital demands a lot of time and energy, distracting entrepreneurs from building the actual business.

• Raising capital too early means pitching the merit of the business idea to potential investors, rather than proving its merit among customers in the marketplace."

Não consigo deixar de pensar que o entrevistado, ao recomendar o livro de Mullins o fez com um sorriso maroto.

Um exemplo muito mais útil para as PME portuguesas

Um exemplo concreto de como uma empresa com um mínimo de recursos conseguiu uma presença na internet, em "Valentina, moda ‘low cost’ y redes sociales para pasar de 200 euros a diez millones en tres años".

Um exemplo muito mais útil para as PME portuguesas que se queiram aventurar na internet do que os casos de multinacionais americanas ou europeias.

Pensar com os pés assentes na terra

No caderno de Economia do semanário Expresso deste fim de semana, no meio do artigo "As quatro vidas da Fitor: De estrela da Bolsa a 20 empregados" destaco dois trechos:

O primeiro porque contrasta com a leviandade dos políticos na torrefacção de dinheiro impostado e segue um exemplo tão comum nas PME com que trabalho: prudência. Como não recordar a America Latina Logística e a sua regra nº 4. Gente que não está de turno só até à próxima eleição pensa com os pés assentes na terra.

O segundo porque é mais um exemplo da pregação deste anónimo da província:

"abandonar as referências mais básicas, [Moi ici: As que vendem pelo preço e requerem o custo mais baixo] estar atento às tendências do mercado e apostar numa oferta com mais valor acrescentado, [Moi ici: Subir na escala de valor. What else?]"

Competir pela flexibilidade

No caderno de Economia do semanário Expresso deste fim de semana, no meio do artigo "PAdira ganha músculo financeiro com a Sonae" encontro este trecho:

 Parece retirado deste blogue. Há anos e anos a defender que se não podemos competir pelo custo temos de competir pela flexibilidade, pela co-criação, pela interacção.

Está a entranhar-se. Quantos anos demorará a chegar às sebentas?

Primeira medida Sonae para a Adira? Sugiro tirá-la daquele local, colocá-la em zona industrial e vender o terreno para imobiliário, apesar do cemitério.

Talvez o tema que mais nos separa dos níveis de produtividade do resto da Europa Ocidental

No caderno de Economia do semanário Expresso este fim de semana, em anexo a este artigo "Porto quer ultrapassar o ‘vale da morte’" encontro este trecho que julgo que merece ser sublinhado:

Sobre a primeira resposta:

• A realidade existe mesmo? (Abril de 2017)
• Para os que que deixam dinheiro em cima da mesa, porque se subestimam (Janeiro de 2015)
• Para acabar com o deixar dinheiro em cima da mesa - parte IIb (Novembro de 2012)
• Para acabar com o deixar dinheiro em cima da mesa - parte IIa (Novembro de 2012)
• Para acabar com o deixar dinheiro em cima da mesa - parte Ia (Novembro de 2012)
• O caminho menos percorrido (Abril de 2011)

É um tema com anos este blogue. Um tema muito importante. Talvez o tema que mais nos separa dos níveis de produtividade do resto da Europa Ocidental.

Sobre a segunda resposta ... faz-me lembrar um diálogo de surdos que ouvi na Antena 1, enquanto descia o IP3 no tempo da troika. A jornalista tinha uma ideia feita acerca das necessidades de financiamento, António Nogueira Leite dava uma resposta que contrariava a ideia da jornalista. E a jornalista voltava a fazer a pergunta à espera que o entrevistado mudasse de opinião. 

Acerca de algumas reuniões

"At their worst, meetings are like short prison sentences that have you counting the minutes until your release. Yet there are meetings that are useful and productive, and even invigorating and enjoyable."

Trecho retirado de "How to Craft Meetings People Love (Really)"


Durante as próximas semanas o ritmo de actualização do blogue será drasticamente reduzido por vários motivos.

Entretanto tenham um bom mês de Agosto!

Apesar da tríade

Uma fotografia de uma evolução notável:

Uma evolução que temos relatado aqui em primeira mão.

"a fase que se seguiu, entre 2012 e 2015, coincidiu com o início da recuperação dos salários reais e com o crescimento da competitividade e da produtividade na generalidade dos setores. Este novo círculo virtuoso foi impulsionado principalmente pelo lado da procura da economia, uma vez que a faturação das sociedades teve o seu maior crescimento entre 2012 e 2015. O volume de negócios cresceu 12,1% nas indústrias transformadoras, 11,8% nos outros serviços e 9,5% no comércio."

O texto refere "recuperação de salários reais" eu escreveria aumento dos salários reais já que estamos a falar de empresas privadas e empresas transformadoras.

Salários a aumentar, competitividade a aumentar e produtividade a aumentar, tudo em simultâneo, como previ naquele postal de Maio de 2011 escrito num café em Valpaços.

Mongo é gigante-unfriendly

Cuidado com as escolas-cidade, com os hospitais-cidade, com as mega-estruturas num mundo complexo. Cuidado com as Torre de Babel.

Servitização

"A Elis opera no aluguer e manutenção de roupa de cama, de cozinha e para casa-de-banho, de utensílios de limpeza para casa-de-banho, dispensadores de água e de tapetes e na personalização de fardas de trabalho para os sectores da hotelaria e restauração, saúde, indústria, comércio e serviços."

Tudo é serviço!

Servitização: Produz-se roupa de cama mas já não se vende roupa de cama, vende-se um serviço onde entra a roupa da cama.


Trecho retirado de "Francesa Elis investe 20 milhões e cria até 350 empregos em Torres Vedras"

Economia das Experiências

Mais um exemplo da economia das experiências: "Caves Cálem investem três milhões em experiências sensoriais vínicas":

"Maite, que chegou de Espanha há poucos dias, aplaude a ideia de descobrir o mundo da vinicultura sozinha. “Despertou-me os sentidos e acho que não me escapou nada do museu, onde posso mexer, tocar e até cheirar caixas perfumadas de amora, framboesa ou baunilha, numa mesa para também adivinhar qual o aroma”, diz. Segue logo, sem demora, para a próxima descoberta: desde a vindima na adega, passando pela fermentação até ao envelhecimento e engarrafamento. Mais à frente, uma mostra do solo de xisto e argila do Douro chama-lhe a atenção que, de seguida, salta para as caixas de luz que exploram as tipologias de vinho do Porto — Branco, Ruby, Tawny e Rosé — com a respectiva evolução da tonalidade. E um questionário interactivo pergunta-lhe “Qual é o seu Porto?” para depois lhe enviar um rótulo personalizado com uma sugestão."

Curiosidade do dia

Em Julho de 2007:

"Jorge Coelho quer aprovar, até ao fim deste mês, a construção de um novo aeroporto de Lisboa na Ota."

Lembram-se da urgência da construção? A Portela estava a abarrotar e não aguentaria muito mais tempo.

Mais de 10 anos depois: "Portela foi dos ‘hubs’ que mais cresceu no Mundo desde 2007":

"O aeroporto de Lisboa, agora designado Aeroporto Humberto Delgado, foi dos hubs que mais cresceu em todo o Mundo nos últimos dez anos,"

Cresceu 176%!!!

Dá que pensar não dá?

A leviandade com que os governos normandos torram dinheiro que será futura impostagem aos saxões do costume.

1 + 1 = 3 ?

Daqui "Indústria 4 ponto o quê?": perspectivas de crescimento das empresas e a falta de trabalhadores a acentuar-se.

Daqui "Norte - Estrutura, Ano I nº 2": a evolução demográfica a Norte (uma década de declínio demográfico).

Como relacionar com "Metade das empresas vai contratar mais pessoas mas nem uma quer aumentar salários"?

Se a procura por trabalhadores vai aumentar e se a chegada dos mesmos ao mercado de trabalho vai continuar a baixar... é preciso tirar o cavalinho da chuva e acreditar que isso vai ser obtido sem ser à custa de salários mais altos.

Salários mais altos implica continuar a subir na escala de valor.

Seru (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

"seru highlights the need to define productivity more specifically in terms of value creation, rather than output. Elaborating the definition of produc- tivity and the TSEF in this way provides insight into why and how production operations deploying seru have been competitive in spite of high labor and other costs."

Posso ser um anónimo da província mas ando muito, muito à frente. Perdoem-me a falta de modéstia.

One more time, it is not about cost!

"In 1969, manufacturing strategy pioneer Wickham Skinner wrote about the missing link between an organization's strategy and its operations. In this provocative Forum essay, Richard Schon- berger and Karen Brown argue that this gap is still very much a reality in that both academics and practitioners tend to subscribe to an overly narrow view of operations. [Moi ici: Aquilo a que este anónimo da província chama de mentalidade da tríade, demasiada concentração na eficiência] In a nutshell, there is still too much focus on efficiency.
...
an excessive focus on costs effectively transforms cost into the default competitive priority.  A case in point: why do we speak and write about “low-cost environments”? Why is one particular performance dimension privileged like this in our conversations about the geography of manufacturing? Has anyone ever written about “high-responsiveness environments”? Why not?
The task of the operations function is often taken as a given and unchanging. But, in uncertain environments, both task and its boundary conditions change over time e static and dynamic efficiency are very different things. Like Skinner wrote on multiple occasions throughout his career, we must not conceive of operations as a perfunctory task e an immediate candidate for outsourcing and offshoring. Rather, it often belongs to the organizational and strategic core of the firm, and as such must remain strategically relevant over time. If the objective is to remain in sync with changing markets, outsourcing and offshoring may well be the worst decision imaginable."

Antes de me sentar a citar este texto dei uma caminhada de 5km por ruas secundárias de Mafamude que não visitava desde 1973.  A certa altura olho para uma série de "lojas": uma de imobiliário, uma híbrida entre a mercearia e a chinesa, uma como ginásio de educação, outra de ... e veio-me à mente o pensamento de que reconheceremos Mongo quando começarem a aparecer nos espaços de loja: unidades de fabricação com 2 ou 3 trabalhadores e tecnologia.

Trechos retirados de "One more time, it is not about cost!"

Preocupação séria

Há dois anos escrevi:

"Espero que isto não chegue cá, espero que alguém ande a preparar os alarmes e as trancas antes de chegarem os ladrões, "European Commission Publishes Xylella Fastidiosa Factsheet"."

Agora, "Doença "fastidiosa" do olival em Espanha está a assustar o Alentejo". Espero que alguma coisa tenha sido feita em termos de preparação. Infelizmente não acredito muito nesta hipótese.

"It begins when the customer becomes aware of the possibility to evolve"

"a JTBD describes how a customer changes or wishes to change. With this in mind, we define a JTBD as follows:
A Job to be Done is the process a consumer goes through whenever she evolves herself through searching for, buying, and using a product.
It begins when the customer becomes aware of the possibility to evolve.
It continues as along as the desired progress is sought.
It ends when the consumer realizes new capabilities and behaves differently, or abandons the idea of evolving.
...
A consumer goes along his life as he’s come to know it. Then things change. He is presented with an opportunity for self-betterment — that is, make changes so he can grow. When or if he finds a product that helps him realize that growth opportunity, he can evolve to that better version of himself he had imagined."

Trechos retirados de "What is Customer Jobs? What is a Job to be Done (JTBD)?"

Uma coisa é uma coisa, outra coisa é outra coisa (parte V)

Parte I, parte II, parte III e parte IV.

"That mismatch has engendered a kind of schizophrenia in the way computer companies view their supply chains. They cling to measures of physical efficiency such as plant capacity utilization and inventory turns because those measures are familiar from their mainframe days. Yet the marketplace keeps pulling them toward measures of responsiveness such as product availability.
.
There is a kind of schizophrenia in the way computer companies view their supply chains.
.
How does a company in the upper right-hand cell overcome its schizophrenia? Either by moving to the left on the matrix and making its products functional or by moving down the matrix and making its supply chain responsive. The correct direction depends on whether the product is sufficiently innovative to generate enough additional profit to cover the cost of making the supply chain responsive.
.
A sure sign that a company needs to move to the left is if it has a product line characterized by frequent introductions of new offerings, great variety, and low profit margins. Toothpaste is a good example. A few years ago, I was to give a presentation to a food industry group. I decided that a good way to demonstrate the dysfunctional level of variety that exists in many grocery categories would be to buy one of each type of toothpaste made by a particular manufacturer and present the collection to my audience. When I went to my local supermarket to buy my samples, I found that 28 varieties were available. A few months later, when I mentioned this discovery to a senior vice president of a competing manufacturer, he acknowledged that his company also had 28 types of toothpaste—one to match each of the rival’s offerings.
.
Does the world need 28 kinds of toothpaste from each manufacturer? Procter & Gamble, which has been simplifying many of its product lines and pricing, is coming to the conclusion that the answer is no. Toothpaste is a product category in which a move to the left—from innovative to functional—makes sense.[Moi ici: Um artigo escrito em 1997. Recordar a evolução para Mongo, cada vez mais gente fora da caixa. E para certas tribos isto é fundamental e não pactuam com a funcionalidade pura e simples]
.
In other cases when a company has an unresponsive supply chain for innovative products, the right solution is to make some of the products functional and to create a responsive supply chain for the remaining innovative products."

Seru (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"The typical seru implementation process can be summarized as follows:
1. As customer demands fluctuate, assembly line inefficiencies become apparent and a strategic choice to emphasize responsiveness is made.
2. Assembly lines are dismantled and replaced with divisional seru systems through resource collocation and removal/replacement, cross-training, and autonomy.
3. Expensive dedicated equipment is replaced by inexpensive general-purpose equipment that can be duplicated and redeployed as needed by serus.
4. As cross-training progresses, divisional serus evolve into rotating serus and yatais.
5. As the seru system matures, cell configurability is developed so that exactly the cells required to meet demand can be rapidly formed, then dismantled once demand is met.
...
In the years leading up to 1992, production of most high- volume, low-value-added Japanese products was being shifted to low-cost countries because of the Japanese yen's sharp rise. Sony's products did not lend themselves to such offshoring, however, because they were characterized by high variety, low volume, and high value added, with frequent design updates and generational changes. Sony first attempted to respond to its high demand volatility by applying the Toyota Production System mixed-product method to its conveyor lines, but the demand volatility for Sony products substantially exceeded that of Toyota. Rapid changes in product technologies and configurations called for lines to be reconfigurable, whereas the Toyota Production System emphasized investments in expensive, synchronized, integrated production lines. Thus, Sony chose to design its production system to respond to demand volatility, rather than eliminate it as occurs under the Toyota Production System.
...
Conveyers were replaced by workbenches, and simple equipment and manual tools were used, so that serus could be constructed, modified, dismantled, and reconstructed quickly and frequently. Although divisional serus were considerably more flexible than assembly lines with respect to product variation and volume changes, the demand for some products was volatile enough to require even more flexibility, so some of the divisional serus were converted into rotating serus.
...
As product variants proliferate and product life-cycles shorten, needs for changeovers and transitions rise. In this case, assembly lines with highly specialized workers and equipment (and resulting costly and lengthy change- overs) are likely to struggle more and more to maintain acceptable levels of utilization (uptime). Given the need to meet these highly varying demands, seru systems actually produce swifter and more even flows than assembly lines, because they handle transitions more quickly and efficiently. The emphasis under seru that all tasks are completed in a single cell, all required resources are made available in the cell, and that everything not required is eliminated, has as its objective to support the swift and even flow of products."

Trechos retirados de "Lessons from seru production on manufacturing competitively in a high cost environment" publicado pelo Journal of Operations Management, 49-51 (2017) 67-76.

Continua.

Dúvida existencial

Ontem, ao trabalhar com uma empresa que fabrica moldes esquematizei uma sequência de actividades:

E subitamente fui invadido por uma dúvida existencial.

Primeiro elabora-se um projecto preliminar, depois um projecto final e depois fabrica-se e testa-se o molde.

Posso considerar que a fase do projecto termina com a aprovação do projecto final e o output é o projecto de um molde. Ou, posso considerar que a fase de projecto inclui a fabricação do molde e o output é um molde testado e validado pelo cliente em ensaios.

Com a segunda versão, as actividades de fabrico, no âmbito da secção 8.5 da ISO 9001:2015, também incluem as actividades de controlo de projecto, no âmbito da secção 8.3 da ISO 9001:2015.

Por exemplo, os ensaios do molde tanto funcionam como validação do projecto (cláusula 8.3.4 d) da ISO 9001:2015) como controlo da qualidade (cláusula 8.6 da ISO 9001:2015).

"As long as competitive advantage is temporary..."

"As long as competitive advantage is temporary, even the largest companies have to focus on serving customers in order to stay on top. But if the Blockbusters of the world are able to cement their status and no longer need to fear the Netflixes, customers, competitors, and society all stand to lose."

Como não recordar o comboio de empresas do regime que o choque revelado em 2011 tem contribuído para aniquilar.


Trecho retirado de "Making Sense of Our Very Competitive, Super Monopolistic Economy"

Uma coisa é uma coisa, outra coisa é outra coisa (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

"The rate of new-product introductions has skyrocketed in many industries, fueled both by an increase in the number of competitors and by the efforts of existing competitors to protect or increase profit margins. As a result, many companies have turned or tried to turn traditionally functional products into innovative products. But they have continued to focus on physical efficiency in the processes for supplying those products. This phenomenon explains why one finds so many broken supply chains—or unresponsive chains trying to supply innovative products—in industries such as automobiles, personal computers, and consumer packaged goods.
.
Functional products require an efficient process; innovative products, a responsive process."

Trecho retirado de "What Is the Right Supply Chain for Your Product?"

Continua.

Plataformizar um produto

Um texto que pode lançar numa empresa uma discussão sobre como evoluir um produto/serviço para uma abordagem baseada numa plataforma multilateral: "Finding the Platform in Your Product":

"companies that weren’t born as platform businesses rarely realize that they can—at least partially—turn their products and services into an MSP (multisided platforms)"

Seru (parte II)

Parte I.

"we define a lean operations strategy as one that prioritizes minimization of use of resources through reducing variability and minimizing buffers, and a responsive operations strategy as one that prioritizes the ability to respond to demand volatility (product and quantity), which then requires buffering either with capacity or inventory.
...
Seru is a type of cellular manufacturing (CM).
...
When demand is highly volatile, however, the value of smoothing demand tends to be lower than the value of responsiveness. Similarly, streamlining the operation of an assembly line through use of the takt time is possible when what is produced does not change, but a rapidly changing product mix eliminates such productivity gains. These practices are combined with the tradition within Toyota Production System of freezing the production schedule eight weeks before production begins, which substantially reduces responsiveness. Assembly lines organized according to Toyota Production System practices can be highly efficient when demand volatility is low. As demand volatility increases, however, assembly lines lack the needed responsiveness and lose the stability that is the source of their outstanding efficiency. Seru thus begins with the transformation of assembly lines into cells. Seru cells resemble biological cellular organisms in that they can be easily constructed, modified, dismantled, and reconstructed, hence the name seru, a Japanese word for cellular organism. In contrast to the fixed cells described elsewhere in the literature, seru cells are defined by their configurability, which plays a key role in their responsiveness. These assembly cells - designed to permit orders to flow seamlessly through the factory - represent a choice to prioritize responsiveness over efficiency.
...
[Moi ici: O trecho que se segue é tremendo, quando eu falo de Mongo e muita gente fala de automação. Recordar: "Não acredito nestas relações simplistas" e "In principle, the production of virtually any component or assembly operation could be robotized and moved to high-wage countries—but only so long as demand is great enough, and design specifications stable enough, to justify huge scale and hundreds of millions, if not billions, in upfront investments."] When production is organized into a single assembly line, the cost of large-scale automation may be justified by efficiency gains. When demand volatility is high enough to warrant cellular manufacturing, large and costly automated equipment needs to be replaced by small, flexible, and relatively inexpensive equipment that can be duplicated as needed."

Trechos retirados de "Lessons from seru production on manufacturing competitively in a high cost environment" publicado pelo Journal of Operations Management, 49-51 (2017) 67-76.

Continua.

Curiosidade do dia

A propósito de "Mediadores: Portugal longe da bolha no mercado imobiliária"

Eheheh

Quando é preciso negar ...

Seru (parte I)

Em 2005 na revista Business Week encontrei um trecho que nunca mais esqueci e que citei neste postal de 2006, "Deixar de ser uma Arca de Noé":

"Canon is also looking to boost productivity. Already, the company has seen great gains from "cell assembly," where small teams build products from start to finish rather than each worker repeatedly performing a single task on a long assembly line. Canon now has no assembly lines; it ditched the last of its 20 kilometers of conveyor belts in 2002, when a line making ink-jet printers in Thailand was shut down."

Em 2010 no postal "Para quem se queixa da China... (parte IV)" escrevi:

""In the 21st century industry, all successful strategies rely on speed-to-market. Speed-to-market, in turn, can operate only where there exists trust, cooperation and collaboration between customer and supplier. To achieve this, we must change the very nature of our industry strategies." (Moi ici: e as fábricas conseguem guarnecer-se de talento para falarem como parceiros com as marcas e não como recebedoras de encomendas? E os fabricantes de máquinas conseguem agarrar a oportunidade de desenhar as máquinas que permitirão trabalhar com estas séries e frequências? E o lean aqui não será de muito uso, estamos a falar de uma nova organização da produção..."

Agora, passados estes anos todos:

"The past three decades have witnessed waves of offshoring by manufacturers in developed countries pursuing low-cost sources of production. Companies like Canon and Sony provide exceptions to the popular offshoring trend. Recognizing that their markets required responsiveness that extended supply chains could not provide, these companies pioneered a production system known as seru that has made it possible to manufacture competitively and profitably in Japan.
...
Producing locally has then strengthened their capacity to innovate. In ensuing years, hundreds of Japanese companies, especially electronics makers, have adopted seru, touting impressive benefits. The seru experience provides a useful lens for understanding how manufacturing can be competitive in a high-cost economy.
The seru production system is a type of cellular manufacturing that is distinguished first by the cells being configurable rather than fixed; and second by its use of cells for assembly, packaging, and testing rather than fabrication alone. Seru is defined by its prioritization of responsiveness over cost reduction in setting the firm's operations strategy.
...
Seru was developed to cope with high demand volatility and short product life cycles. Innovative manufacturing firms face the challenge of being flexible enough to handle significant process and environment variabilities, yet efficient enough to produce at a competitive cost. A considerable literature suggests that efficient production is best achieved through lean manufacturing, which typically seeks to reduce buffers and to eliminate demand volatility.
...
Interestingly, seru was explicitly developed as an alternative to the Toyota Production System (the precursor to lean). The developer of the seru concept - an expert in the Toyota Production System - concluded that implementing the Toyota Production System would not be appropriate in an innovative industry where the primary objective is to respond to demand volatility and fast product development cycles. Rather than adding agility to leanness ... seru begins with the objective of responsiveness: Seru's originators sought to achieve a smooth flow of a wide variety of products and volumes while using resources frugally."

Trechos retirados de "Lessons from seru production on manufacturing competitively in a high cost environment" publicado pelo Journal of Operations Management, 49-51 (2017) 67-76.

Continua.

Acerca do futuro do trabalho

Um estudo sobre o futuro do trabalho, que merece ser lido: "Shift: The Commission on Work, Workers, and Technology - Report of Findings".

Por exemplo:

"We took several trends as givens, so we could focus on the uncertainties on which the future of work depends. We identified four almost-inevitable forces:
1. An aging workforce;
2. The decline of “dynamism,” the movement of people
between jobs, firms, and places;
3. A societal shift to non-work income;
4. Growing geographic gaps.
By 2024, nearly one-quarter of the workforce is projected to be 55 or older — more than double the share in 1994.
...
Accepting these economic trends as givens, our members then considered the most important uncertainties about the future. After initially considering 16 variables, we selected these two as most important:
1. the structure of work — will there be more “tasks” (a catchall including contracting, projects, the “gig economy,” and the like) or will work remain concentrated in traditionally structured jobs?
2. the effect of automation — will technological changes result in more or less work to go around?"

"em ambientes cada vez mais complexos os gigantes falham"

Mongo é variedade, é diversidade, é explosão de tribos.

Ao mesmo tempo os gigantes criam organizações-cidade para lidar com os desafios de crescente complexidade:

"an increase in variety was associated with an increase in sourcing complexity, and that an increase in sourcing complexity was associated with worsened coordination performance.
...
This paper focused specifically on the tension between scale and scope economies to suggest that the pursuit of economies of scale generates production rigidity, while pursuing downstream synergies through cross-selling creates organizational interdependencies and complexity. We also empirically explored product line extension — the purest form of firm scope expansion — to demonstrate that complexity- induced coordination burden may, indeed, reduce economies of scope.
...
These results also extend recent attempts to conceptualize the locus and limitation of coordination in complex task systems. As complexity increases, these loci of coordination turn into organizational bottlenecks due to limits on their coordination capacity. Organizations face a tradeoff in designing these hubs, which might reduce complexity in the overall network but become a bottleneck themselves due to local congestion. This further illustrates the point that economies of scope “may decline not because of exogenous opportunity constraints but because of the rising costs of coordinating interdependencies”"

Por isto é que em ambientes cada vez mais complexos os gigantes falham. Ninguém quer ser tratado como plancton.



Trechos retirados de "Product Variety, Sourcing Complexity, and the Bottleneck of Coordination" publicado por Strat. Mgmt. J., 38: 1569–1587 (2017)

Uma coisa é uma coisa, outra coisa é outra coisa (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"Supply chains in many other industries suffer from an excess of some products and a shortage of others owing to an inability to predict demand. One department store chain that regularly had to resort to markdowns to clear unwanted merchandise found in exit interviews that one-quarter of its customers had left its stores empty-handed because the specific items they had wanted to buy were out of stock.
...
Before devising a supply chain, consider the nature of the demand for your products.
.
The first step in devising an effective supply-chain strategy is therefore to consider the nature of the demand for the products one’s company supplies.
...
if one classifies products on the basis of their demand patterns, they fall into one of two categories: they are either primarily functional or primarily innovative. And each category requires a distinctly different kind of supply chain. The root cause of the problems plaguing many supply chains is a mismatch between the type of product and the type of supply chain.
...
With their high profit margins and volatile demand, innovative products require a fundamentally different supply chain than stable, low-margin functional products do. To understand the difference, one should recognize that a supply chain performs two distinct types of functions: a physical function and a market mediation function. A supply chain’s physical function is readily apparent and includes converting raw materials into parts, components, and eventually finished goods, and transporting all of them from one point in the supply chain to the next. Less visible but equally important is market mediation, whose purpose is ensuring that the variety of products reaching the marketplace matches what consumers want to buy.
...
The predictable demand of functional products makes market mediation easy because a nearly perfect match between supply and demand can be achieved. Companies that make such products are thus free to focus almost exclusively on minimizing physical costs—a crucial goal, given the price sensitivity of most functional products.
...
That approach is exactly the wrong one for innovative products. The uncertain market reaction to innovation increases the risk of shortages or excess supplies. High profit margins and the importance of early sales in establishing market share for new products increase the cost of shortages. And short product life cycles increase the risk of obsolescence and the cost of excess supplies. Hence market mediation costs predominate for these products, and they, not physical costs, should be managers’ primary focus.
...
Although the distinctions between functional and innovative products and between physical efficiency and responsiveness to the market seem obvious once stated, I have found that many companies founder on this issue. That is probably because products that are physically the same can be either functional or innovative."

Trecho retirado de "What Is the Right Supply Chain for Your Product?"

Continua.

Curiosidade do dia

Tudo dito.

Acerca do crescimento da produtividade

"Our standard mental model of productivity growth reflects the transition from agriculture to industry. We start with 100 farmers producing 100 units of food: technological progress enables 50 to produce the same amount, and the other 50 to move to factories that produce washing machines or cars or whatever. Overall productivity doubles, and can double again, as both agriculture and manufacturing become still more productive, with some workers then shifting to restaurants or health-care services. We assume an endlessly repeatable process."

Os 100 lavradores iniciais passam a 50, depois a 25, depois a 12.

Agora imaginem que numa nova iteração, um dos 12 decide sair desta guerra e opta por produzir uma menor quantidade sob o regime de agricultura biológica? Vai produzir menos quantidade mas vai vender a um preço superior e com muito menos concorrência. Como a quantidade produzida é muito menor e a estrutura indirecta a alimentar é muito menor a facturação é menor.

Desta forma a produtividade global dos 12 baixou, porque um já está noutro campeonato com outras regras.

Desta forma a distribuição de produtividades alarga-se

Trecho retirado de "Is Productivity Growth Becoming Irrelevant?"

Lean vs seru

Sabiam que o Toyota Production System parte do pressuposto que o planeamento da produção está congelado 8 semanas para a frente?

Acham que isso é realista para quem quer operar em Mongo?

Quantas empresas que trabalham com o lean conhecem esta condição?

Já ouviram falar no seru?

Como é que ao fim de tantos anos, num país como Portugal, continuo a ouvir falar no lean e nunca tinha ouvido falar no seru?

À atenção dos comentadores económicos de bancada

Um texto tão bom mas tão bom!!!

"Obvious...
We respond to Obvious problems by picking the appropriate Best Practicse. We have looked at all possible game and have figured out the best possible way. They are called Best, because there is always exactly one best response.
...
Complicated...
In complicated problems the relationship between cause and effect is predictable, but (very) hard to predict. Complicated problems are the domain of expert, who are better able to predict what is likely going to happen. Which is exactly what top chess players do. They need to predict what the likely moves of their opponents are going to be. Experts can simultaneously consider more possible options, but also reduce it to a smaller set of scenarios that require more analysis.
.
So the strategy becomes Sense – Analyse – Respond. And because it is impossible figure out if a move is the best move (except check-mate obviously) there are no best practices in the complicated domain.
...
Complex.
Complex problems are completely different again. What sets them apart is that the relationship between cause & effect is only obvious in hindsight. The gaming metaphor for complexity is poker. Unlike chess, which is a game about predicting, poker is game about learning. Learning what cards your opponents have and how they compare to yours. And the high level strategy for chess doesn’t work for poker.
...
Again, taking the poker example that probe can be in the form of betting. If you make a bet you force opponents to respond to it, by folding, calling or raising. This can give you information about their hand. But other probes can be calling out opponents, sensing can be just looking at their demeanours for example.
.
So the most important thing about Complexity is that there is no way to learn (and thus solving the problem) without doing. Just thinking about it isn’t going to solve it. In Complex problems our practices are always evolving based on what we learn. In poker, even if we would play a game with the exact players with the exact same cards would turn out differently, because we learned things not just about the game, but certainly about our opponents.
...
ChaosChaos happens when there is no relationship between cause and effect or they change very quickly. In this case there is no point in probing because any learning does not help us get better.
.
The gaming analogy here is children playing. Anyone who has ever played with kids know that the rules are continuously changing. And there is no point in trying to learn the rules before starting to play. You have to get in and play with them (Act), while making sure are having fun (Sense) and change accordingly if not (Respond).
.
But most often we end up in Chaos because of some crisis. When that happens we need to very quickly stabilise the situation and get back out of Chaos. This happens all the time in business, where we are frequently relying on hero leaders and task forces to get us out of trouble.
...
But the most important learning is that a whole lot of our circumstances are complex. And thus inherently unpredictable. And no amount of thinking is going to solve that."

Pensem nos comentadores económicos de bancada prontos para dar indicações aos empresários de agora, de Mongo, com as boas-práticas do século XX.

Pensem nos comentadores económicos de bancada crentes num governo todo poderoso com um Cybersyn poderoso capaz de tudo prever.

Trechos retirados de "Understanding Complexity"

Uma coisa é uma coisa, outra coisa é outra coisa (parte II)

Parte I.

"Decide whether your current supply chain is efficient or responsive. Your chain is efficient if you satisfy predictable demand efficiently at the lowest possible cost, turn over inventory frequently, and select suppliers based on cost and quality. It’s responsive if you invest aggressively in reducing lead time for delivery; use standard components for different product versions; and choose suppliers for their speed, flexibility, and quality.
...
Correct mismatches between your supply chain and product. If you’re using an efficient supply chain to sell innovative products, or a responsive supply chain to sell functional products, you’ve got a mismatch. You can correct it through several means:
.
Change your product.
...
Change your supply chain."

Trecho retirado de "What Is the Right Supply Chain for Your Product?"

Continua.

Curiosidade do dia

É sempre possível descer mais baixo, é sempre possível arranjar mais um imposto para alimentar o monstro insaciável: "First statewide bicycle tax in nation leaves bike-crazy Oregon riders deflated"

Uma coisa é uma coisa, outra coisa é outra coisa

Um texto de 1997 mas que continua actual. Aliás, com o advento de Mongo julgo que é ainda mais actual. Também pode servir de base a uma reflexão sobre o que automatizar, num avanço para a Indústria 4.0:

"Are you frequently saddled with excess inventory? Do you suffer product shortages that have customers leaving stores in a huff? Do these supply chain headaches persist despite your investments in technologies such as automated warehousing and rapid logistics?
.
If so, you may be using the wrong supply chain for the type of product you sell. Suppose your offering is functional—it satisfies basic, unchanging needs and has a long life cycle, low margins, and stable demand. (Think paper towels or light bulbs.) In this case, you need an efficient supply chain—which minimizes production, transportation, and storage costs.
.
But what if your product is innovative—it has great variety, a short life cycle, high profit margins, and volatile demand? (A line of laptops with a range of novel features is one example.) For this offering, you require a responsive supply chain. Fast and flexible, it helps you manage uncertainty through strategies such as cutting lead times and establishing inventory or excess-capacity buffers."

BTW, na semana passada ao olhar para os indicadores de uma empresa que engloba tudo e não distingue os dois tipos de cadeia de valor percebi o dilema que sentem ao meter no mesmo âmbito de análise:

• nível de serviço (associado a tempo de resposta);
• nível de stock (associado a stock não movimentado há mais de x meses)

Trecho retirado de "What Is the Right Supply Chain for Your Product?"

Continua.

Adeus realidade científica

Ultimamente cheguei a esta teoria de que não conseguimos ver a realidade, apenas conseguimos ver uma versão pessoal dela ao estilo da realidade aumentada no écran de um smartphone.

"Just as scientists work with theories about dark matter or the beginning of the universe, so we too have a vague concept of the world and our relationship to it. Our theories may not be as well thought out, but they still dictate how we think of the world.
.
But sometimes, something happens that doesn’t fit our theory. A unique event throws us for a loop, and we start to scramble for explanations. How do we understand this happening in light of our current worldview?
...
In other words, people change. Our worldviews shift, sometimes radically, as we absorb new experiences.
...
These transitions can be quite painful. A radical change is never without some discomfort: we may be pushed into an unfamiliar world, with little familiar to guide or reassure us.
...
When our worldview changes, things get even more complicated. We feel the same anxiety (and excitement) of exploring unfamiliar territory, but, in addition, we also cling to our old worldview, thinking that it is still somehow must be ‘true.’
...
something in us grabs onto a theory as a way to explain the world. We believe, in other words, in our idea of the world, whether in the form of religion, a specific scientific worldview, psychological explanations or personality types, social studies, or whatever it may be. But what happens when something happens that doesn’t fit our theory? Either we have to painfully give it up for a new theory (often thinking, “Finally, this is the REAL answer!”), or we have to suppress or deny the evidence so that it doesn’t break our worldview.
...
Bohm proposes that theories do not actually describe the world, nor give us knowledge about it. Rather, theories are a way of looking. Bohm reminds us that the word ‘theory’ has the same root as ‘theater,’ meaning ‘to view.’ “Thus,” Bohm writes, “it might be said that a theory is primarily a form of insight, i.e. a way of looking at the world, and not a form of knowledge of how the world is”
.
This difference between theory as description and theory as insight is subtle, but crucial if we are to free ourselves from the imprisonment of constant theorizing.
...
 we have a hidden assumption. The hidden assumption is that theories themselves can be “true.”
.
But what does “true” mean? We are looking for something that works in all circumstances. But Bohm corrects us: he says, “all theories are insights, which are neither true nor false but, rather, clear in certain domains, and unclear when extended beyond these domains”
.
What we previously thought applied to the world as a whole, really only applies in certain situations.
...
This is not meant to be a buzzkill, of course, but rather to correct a false assumption that our ideas about the world are “absolutely true.” “Absolute truth” is more trouble than it’s worth because it traps us in what we think we already know to be true.
...
It is better, Bohm argues, to see theories as “ways of looking at the world as a whole (i.e. world views)”. Bohm acknowledges that we are in the world we are seeking to understand, instead of removed from it as an imagined observer. In other words, we play a part in what we experience. Our concepts and ideas shape our interpretation of the world.[Moi ici: Este parágrafo adapta-se perfeitamente à visão que tenho de que não existe um caminho único para uma empresa e que o contexto exterior tem, muitas vezes, menos peso que a idiossincrasia de quem tem a autoridade máxima. Idiossincrasia que depende da sua vida anterior, pessoal e profissional. Por isso, quando os comentadores económicos de bancada ditam as directivas para os empresários seguirem, mudo de canal]
...
it is crucial that we drop this idea of theories as “true knowledge of reality” in order to discover the world as it is, instead of as we “know it to be.”
...
Bohm’s view does not mean that theories are useless. The insights offered by theories are real insights. But these insights exist only in specific situations; they do not give us knowledge of “a reality independent of our thought and our way of looking.” Freed from this mistaken assumption, we may experience the world in a completely new way. We will no longer be limited by the confused insistence on absolute truth. Rather, we will experience life as a relationship between observer and observed.[Moi ici: Recuar e pensar que gente que dirigia este país acreditava em algo apelidado de "socialismo cientifico", e pensar que existiu uma mentalidade, bem intencionada acreditemos, que acreditava no Cybersyn]
.
Without clinging to theories, we may find it easier to go with the unpredictable flow of life."

Trechos retirados de "David Bohm on the Value of Life After Theories"

BTW,

"Pragmatism, Rather Than Intellectualism"

"instead of focusing on developing specific techniques or actions, managers should master the principles of biological thinking:
.
Pragmatism, Rather Than Intellectualism.
...
Managers must acknowledge that things often work before we can explain why.
.
Resilience, Rather Than Efficiency. It’s hard to argue against efficiency. What few managers recognize, though, is that it often trades off against resilience. Like excessive dieting, trimming too much fat can in fact be harmful to companies. The difficulty is that the benefits of efficiency are often immediate and visible, while its risks are latent and invisible. To balance the calculus, companies must make resilience an explicit priority.
.
Experimentation, Rather Than Deduction. Paul Graham once claimed that “the best startups almost have to start as side projects.” That’s because when it comes to innovating, no one knows what will work.
...
The biological approach makes management messy, iterative, and even counterintuitive and harder to articulate. Nevertheless, it is also a boon: it allows managers to tinker, to experiment, and to find solutions amid complexity. Biological management also draws on the initiative and diversity of people and liberates them from being mere instruments in mechanical processes — it is thus ultimately a more humanistic approach to management."

Muito bom!!!

Trechos retirados de "Think Biologically: Messy Management for a Complex World"

Curiosidade do dia

Consigo relacionar esta cultura "Criança multada em Londres por vender copos de limonada" com este resultado "How the Modern World Made Cowards of Us All".

"a diminishing frontier spirit and an increasing paranoia about taking big leaps."

Froome!!!

Je suis dejá avec des "saudades".

By-pass ao Estado

Há anos que aviso e aconselho as PME a fazer o by-pass ao Estado e ao país. Portugal é um local onde a política interfere demasiado na economia.

Nem de propósito:

"A recent BCG Henderson Institute analysis applying natural language processing (NLP) to S&P 500 companies’ investor communications shows that many executives now devote more attention to reacting to and shaping political and economic issues.

 This is not a surprise. Political and regulatory intervention and economic volatility do not generally help profits."

Como não recordar o apelo por cá, das associações patronais e empresariais, a pedirem mais intervenção do Estado.

Trecho retirado de "The Business of Business Is No Longer Just Business"

Acerca dos sistemas adaptativos complexos

"Biological thinking matters for several important reasons: First, in complex adaptive systems, there is no single formula or framework that always works. In fact, the very defiance of formulaic problem solving is what makes CAS management so challenging initially. It’s not possible to articulate before the fact how best to intervene in a given situation.[Moi ici: Leram bem? Voltem a ler! Recordar os que nos media dizem que o governo de turno devia dizer o que as empresas deviam fazer para terem sucesso]
...
Second, actions that work in CASs do not make sense except in light of biological thinking. Mechanical management remains alluring precisely because it relies on a familiar and shared protocol for sense making: it focuses on measurable outcomes such as efficiency and profitability; it makes initiatives easy to explain; and it gives managers a sense of control. [Moi ici: Tão verdade!!! Era o que aqui o José Silva tolerou chamar-se de optimismo não fundamentado. É o que aqui sublinhámos com o exemplo da Viarco.] Biological management stops being counterintuitive only when business leaders adopt a new managerial worldview.

.
Third, managing businesses successfully in today’s environment involves new goals rather than just new problem-solving tools. In other words, businesses need a new what as well as a new how: for instance, surviving, in addition to winning; maximizing value for others, as well as for oneself; and prioritizing learning, as well as optimizing short-term performance. [Moi ici: A maior parte dos que pensam em automatização estão a pensar no mesmo what com um diferente how.] These new goals can be embraced only when businesses adopt biological thinking."

 Muito bom!!!

Trechos retirados de "Think Biologically: Messy Management for a Complex World"

Sindicatos. “É um absurdo” proibir o corte de árvores durante 15 anos

Com base numa ideia do @joaomiranda no Twitter:

A propósito de "Sindicatos. “É um absurdo” proibir a pesca da sardinha durante 15 anos"

Curiosidade do dia

"Entre 35 países da Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Económico (OCDE), Portugal ficou em 33º lugar na competitividade fiscal. Pior do que Portugal, só Itália e França."

Deprimentemente impressionante.

Trecho retirado de "OCDE: Portugal é o 33º país menos competitivo em políticas fiscais"

The world is more complex

"Adapt approaches in response to changing circumstances. One of the traps of mechanical management is the tendency to seek universal and permanent solutions to complex problems. Processes and procedures are alluring, especially in large organizations, because they seem to be ways to tame complexity by dividing problems into simple tasks that can then be managed separately and predictably repeated. The problem is that the world is more complex than these static universal processes acknowledge — and even if they work for a while, they inevitably become stale and outdated as the environment changes.
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In a complex world, there is no universal formula for problem solving. So what should managers do? Their best bet is to iteratively conduct small, low-cost experiments that can then be scaled up or down on the basis of their relative success.
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This mode of problem solving through constant experimentation needs the right organizational enablers. Individual teams require the autonomy to run experiments with minimal hierarchical direction, because worthwhile ideas and initiatives often spring from individuals closest to the front line. Moreover, they need to be empowered to take full advantage of the experimental learnings. At Intuit, teams running experiments often have embedded data scientists to help them draw rigorous conclusions from their trials. Finally, teams require a culture that prioritizes learning over immediate profitability or efficiency. Experiments are not valuable unless there is a legitimate chance of failure, so businesses must help teams and individuals become bold enough to attempt such risky experiments."

Trechos retirados de "Think Biologically: Messy Management for a Complex World"

Não acredito nestas relações simplistas

Há tempos neste postal, "Reconfiguração", sublinhei:

"Poised to take off in the late 1800s, electricity flopped as a source of mechanical power with almost no impact at all on 19th-century manufacturing. By 1900, electric motors were providing less than 5 per cent of mechanical drive power in American factories.
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Productivity finally surged in US manufacturing only in the 1920s. The reason for the 30-year delay? The new electric motors only worked well when everything else changed too. Steam-powered factories had delivered power through awe-inspiring driveshafts, secondary shafts, belts, belt towers, and thousands of drip-oilers. The early efforts to introduce electricity merely replaced the single huge engine with a similarly large electric motor. Results were disappointing."

Quando se fala sobre robotização julgo que falta também fazer algum tipo de reconfiguração mental. A maior parte das vezes que leio ou oiço sobre robotização recordo a técnica de manter x variáveis constantes e variar apenas uma:

"Bah... eu aprendi a fazer isto desde a escola primária… 7 variáveis: manter 6 constantes e mudar uma delas. E depois repetir para outra variável e assim sucessivamente.
Vantagens deste método:
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Poucas experiências
Método simples e intuitivo (usado desde a escola primária)
À medida que avançamos na realização das experiências vamos descobrindo coisas acerca do sistema
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Desvantagens deste método:
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Muito sensível a erros experimentais, para remediar usam-se mais amostras, ou seja, repetem-se os testes, o que aumenta o número de testes
Ignora a interacção entre variáveis
Leva a experiências pouco estruturadas"

Quando li "Robótica. A tecnologia que vai revolucionar o mercado de trabalho" a minha mente transformou-se num turbilhão de ideias acerca das interacções.

O texto relaciona robótica e menos emprego. Eu relaciono robótica e menos flexibilidade. Basta recordar:

"In principle, the production of virtually any component or assembly operation could be robotized and moved to high-wage countries—but only so long as demand is great enough, and design specifications stable enough, to justify huge scale and hundreds of millions, if not billions, in upfront investments."

Basta recordar porque é que a VW declinou o pedido inicial da Deutsche Post, ou porque é que a Toyota e a Mercedes estão a reduzir a automatização.

O que digo aqui sobre Mongo? Mais variedade, mais tribos, mais flexibilidade, mais rapidez, ... menos friendly para gigantes e mais pro-independentes.

Assim, não acredito nestas relações simplistas entre robotização e emprego porque descuram o impacte de Mongo no perfil das empresas e da procura.

Um clássico

Um clássico deste blogue e deste anónimo da província.

De um lado o canto da sereia da eficiência. Afinal que mal é que a eficiência pode trazer?

Mintzberg também coloca a interrogação e também responde "What could possibly be wrong with “efficiency”? Plenty."

A eficiência é má? A minha resposta é: A eficiência não é boa intrinsecamente. Quando os governos constroem hospitais-cidade para aumentarem a eficiência, ou agrupamentos escolares-cidade para aumentarem a eficiência... estão a criar monstros que não vão ser capazes de cumprir a sua missão.

E quem é avaliado pela eficiência fica em rota de colisão com a direcção de Mongo para a flexibilidade e variedade.