Uma coisa é uma coisa, outra coisa é outra coisa (parte IV)

Parte I, parte II e parte III.

"The rate of new-product introductions has skyrocketed in many industries, fueled both by an increase in the number of competitors and by the efforts of existing competitors to protect or increase profit margins. As a result, many companies have turned or tried to turn traditionally functional products into innovative products. But they have continued to focus on physical efficiency in the processes for supplying those products. This phenomenon explains why one finds so many broken supply chains—or unresponsive chains trying to supply innovative products—in industries such as automobiles, personal computers, and consumer packaged goods.
.
Functional products require an efficient process; innovative products, a responsive process."

Trecho retirado de "What Is the Right Supply Chain for Your Product?"

Continua.

Plataformizar um produto

Um texto que pode lançar numa empresa uma discussão sobre como evoluir um produto/serviço para uma abordagem baseada numa plataforma multilateral: "Finding the Platform in Your Product":

"companies that weren’t born as platform businesses rarely realize that they can—at least partially—turn their products and services into an MSP (multisided platforms)"

Seru (parte II)

Parte I.

"we define a lean operations strategy as one that prioritizes minimization of use of resources through reducing variability and minimizing buffers, and a responsive operations strategy as one that prioritizes the ability to respond to demand volatility (product and quantity), which then requires buffering either with capacity or inventory.
...
Seru is a type of cellular manufacturing (CM).
...
When demand is highly volatile, however, the value of smoothing demand tends to be lower than the value of responsiveness. Similarly, streamlining the operation of an assembly line through use of the takt time is possible when what is produced does not change, but a rapidly changing product mix eliminates such productivity gains. These practices are combined with the tradition within Toyota Production System of freezing the production schedule eight weeks before production begins, which substantially reduces responsiveness. Assembly lines organized according to Toyota Production System practices can be highly efficient when demand volatility is low. As demand volatility increases, however, assembly lines lack the needed responsiveness and lose the stability that is the source of their outstanding efficiency. Seru thus begins with the transformation of assembly lines into cells. Seru cells resemble biological cellular organisms in that they can be easily constructed, modified, dismantled, and reconstructed, hence the name seru, a Japanese word for cellular organism. In contrast to the fixed cells described elsewhere in the literature, seru cells are defined by their configurability, which plays a key role in their responsiveness. These assembly cells - designed to permit orders to flow seamlessly through the factory - represent a choice to prioritize responsiveness over efficiency.
...
[Moi ici: O trecho que se segue é tremendo, quando eu falo de Mongo e muita gente fala de automação. Recordar: "Não acredito nestas relações simplistas" e "In principle, the production of virtually any component or assembly operation could be robotized and moved to high-wage countries—but only so long as demand is great enough, and design specifications stable enough, to justify huge scale and hundreds of millions, if not billions, in upfront investments."] When production is organized into a single assembly line, the cost of large-scale automation may be justified by efficiency gains. When demand volatility is high enough to warrant cellular manufacturing, large and costly automated equipment needs to be replaced by small, flexible, and relatively inexpensive equipment that can be duplicated as needed."

Trechos retirados de "Lessons from seru production on manufacturing competitively in a high cost environment" publicado pelo Journal of Operations Management, 49-51 (2017) 67-76.

Continua.

Curiosidade do dia

A propósito de "Mediadores: Portugal longe da bolha no mercado imobiliária"

Eheheh

Quando é preciso negar ...

Seru (parte I)

Em 2005 na revista Business Week encontrei um trecho que nunca mais esqueci e que citei neste postal de 2006, "Deixar de ser uma Arca de Noé":

"Canon is also looking to boost productivity. Already, the company has seen great gains from "cell assembly," where small teams build products from start to finish rather than each worker repeatedly performing a single task on a long assembly line. Canon now has no assembly lines; it ditched the last of its 20 kilometers of conveyor belts in 2002, when a line making ink-jet printers in Thailand was shut down."

Em 2010 no postal "Para quem se queixa da China... (parte IV)" escrevi:

""In the 21st century industry, all successful strategies rely on speed-to-market. Speed-to-market, in turn, can operate only where there exists trust, cooperation and collaboration between customer and supplier. To achieve this, we must change the very nature of our industry strategies." (Moi ici: e as fábricas conseguem guarnecer-se de talento para falarem como parceiros com as marcas e não como recebedoras de encomendas? E os fabricantes de máquinas conseguem agarrar a oportunidade de desenhar as máquinas que permitirão trabalhar com estas séries e frequências? E o lean aqui não será de muito uso, estamos a falar de uma nova organização da produção..."

Agora, passados estes anos todos:

"The past three decades have witnessed waves of offshoring by manufacturers in developed countries pursuing low-cost sources of production. Companies like Canon and Sony provide exceptions to the popular offshoring trend. Recognizing that their markets required responsiveness that extended supply chains could not provide, these companies pioneered a production system known as seru that has made it possible to manufacture competitively and profitably in Japan.
...
Producing locally has then strengthened their capacity to innovate. In ensuing years, hundreds of Japanese companies, especially electronics makers, have adopted seru, touting impressive benefits. The seru experience provides a useful lens for understanding how manufacturing can be competitive in a high-cost economy.
The seru production system is a type of cellular manufacturing that is distinguished first by the cells being configurable rather than fixed; and second by its use of cells for assembly, packaging, and testing rather than fabrication alone. Seru is defined by its prioritization of responsiveness over cost reduction in setting the firm's operations strategy.
...
Seru was developed to cope with high demand volatility and short product life cycles. Innovative manufacturing firms face the challenge of being flexible enough to handle significant process and environment variabilities, yet efficient enough to produce at a competitive cost. A considerable literature suggests that efficient production is best achieved through lean manufacturing, which typically seeks to reduce buffers and to eliminate demand volatility.
...
Interestingly, seru was explicitly developed as an alternative to the Toyota Production System (the precursor to lean). The developer of the seru concept - an expert in the Toyota Production System - concluded that implementing the Toyota Production System would not be appropriate in an innovative industry where the primary objective is to respond to demand volatility and fast product development cycles. Rather than adding agility to leanness ... seru begins with the objective of responsiveness: Seru's originators sought to achieve a smooth flow of a wide variety of products and volumes while using resources frugally."

Trechos retirados de "Lessons from seru production on manufacturing competitively in a high cost environment" publicado pelo Journal of Operations Management, 49-51 (2017) 67-76.

Continua.

Acerca do futuro do trabalho

Um estudo sobre o futuro do trabalho, que merece ser lido: "Shift: The Commission on Work, Workers, and Technology - Report of Findings".

Por exemplo:

"We took several trends as givens, so we could focus on the uncertainties on which the future of work depends. We identified four almost-inevitable forces:
1. An aging workforce;
2. The decline of “dynamism,” the movement of people
between jobs, firms, and places;
3. A societal shift to non-work income;
4. Growing geographic gaps.
By 2024, nearly one-quarter of the workforce is projected to be 55 or older — more than double the share in 1994.
...
Accepting these economic trends as givens, our members then considered the most important uncertainties about the future. After initially considering 16 variables, we selected these two as most important:
1. the structure of work — will there be more “tasks” (a catchall including contracting, projects, the “gig economy,” and the like) or will work remain concentrated in traditionally structured jobs?
2. the effect of automation — will technological changes result in more or less work to go around?"

"em ambientes cada vez mais complexos os gigantes falham"

Mongo é variedade, é diversidade, é explosão de tribos.

Ao mesmo tempo os gigantes criam organizações-cidade para lidar com os desafios de crescente complexidade:

"an increase in variety was associated with an increase in sourcing complexity, and that an increase in sourcing complexity was associated with worsened coordination performance.
...
This paper focused specifically on the tension between scale and scope economies to suggest that the pursuit of economies of scale generates production rigidity, while pursuing downstream synergies through cross-selling creates organizational interdependencies and complexity. We also empirically explored product line extension — the purest form of firm scope expansion — to demonstrate that complexity- induced coordination burden may, indeed, reduce economies of scope.
...
These results also extend recent attempts to conceptualize the locus and limitation of coordination in complex task systems. As complexity increases, these loci of coordination turn into organizational bottlenecks due to limits on their coordination capacity. Organizations face a tradeoff in designing these hubs, which might reduce complexity in the overall network but become a bottleneck themselves due to local congestion. This further illustrates the point that economies of scope “may decline not because of exogenous opportunity constraints but because of the rising costs of coordinating interdependencies”"

Por isto é que em ambientes cada vez mais complexos os gigantes falham. Ninguém quer ser tratado como plancton.



Trechos retirados de "Product Variety, Sourcing Complexity, and the Bottleneck of Coordination" publicado por Strat. Mgmt. J., 38: 1569–1587 (2017)

Uma coisa é uma coisa, outra coisa é outra coisa (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"Supply chains in many other industries suffer from an excess of some products and a shortage of others owing to an inability to predict demand. One department store chain that regularly had to resort to markdowns to clear unwanted merchandise found in exit interviews that one-quarter of its customers had left its stores empty-handed because the specific items they had wanted to buy were out of stock.
...
Before devising a supply chain, consider the nature of the demand for your products.
.
The first step in devising an effective supply-chain strategy is therefore to consider the nature of the demand for the products one’s company supplies.
...
if one classifies products on the basis of their demand patterns, they fall into one of two categories: they are either primarily functional or primarily innovative. And each category requires a distinctly different kind of supply chain. The root cause of the problems plaguing many supply chains is a mismatch between the type of product and the type of supply chain.
...
With their high profit margins and volatile demand, innovative products require a fundamentally different supply chain than stable, low-margin functional products do. To understand the difference, one should recognize that a supply chain performs two distinct types of functions: a physical function and a market mediation function. A supply chain’s physical function is readily apparent and includes converting raw materials into parts, components, and eventually finished goods, and transporting all of them from one point in the supply chain to the next. Less visible but equally important is market mediation, whose purpose is ensuring that the variety of products reaching the marketplace matches what consumers want to buy.
...
The predictable demand of functional products makes market mediation easy because a nearly perfect match between supply and demand can be achieved. Companies that make such products are thus free to focus almost exclusively on minimizing physical costs—a crucial goal, given the price sensitivity of most functional products.
...
That approach is exactly the wrong one for innovative products. The uncertain market reaction to innovation increases the risk of shortages or excess supplies. High profit margins and the importance of early sales in establishing market share for new products increase the cost of shortages. And short product life cycles increase the risk of obsolescence and the cost of excess supplies. Hence market mediation costs predominate for these products, and they, not physical costs, should be managers’ primary focus.
...
Although the distinctions between functional and innovative products and between physical efficiency and responsiveness to the market seem obvious once stated, I have found that many companies founder on this issue. That is probably because products that are physically the same can be either functional or innovative."

Trecho retirado de "What Is the Right Supply Chain for Your Product?"

Continua.

Curiosidade do dia

Tudo dito.

Acerca do crescimento da produtividade

"Our standard mental model of productivity growth reflects the transition from agriculture to industry. We start with 100 farmers producing 100 units of food: technological progress enables 50 to produce the same amount, and the other 50 to move to factories that produce washing machines or cars or whatever. Overall productivity doubles, and can double again, as both agriculture and manufacturing become still more productive, with some workers then shifting to restaurants or health-care services. We assume an endlessly repeatable process."

Os 100 lavradores iniciais passam a 50, depois a 25, depois a 12.

Agora imaginem que numa nova iteração, um dos 12 decide sair desta guerra e opta por produzir uma menor quantidade sob o regime de agricultura biológica? Vai produzir menos quantidade mas vai vender a um preço superior e com muito menos concorrência. Como a quantidade produzida é muito menor e a estrutura indirecta a alimentar é muito menor a facturação é menor.

Desta forma a produtividade global dos 12 baixou, porque um já está noutro campeonato com outras regras.

Desta forma a distribuição de produtividades alarga-se

Trecho retirado de "Is Productivity Growth Becoming Irrelevant?"

Lean vs seru

Sabiam que o Toyota Production System parte do pressuposto que o planeamento da produção está congelado 8 semanas para a frente?

Acham que isso é realista para quem quer operar em Mongo?

Quantas empresas que trabalham com o lean conhecem esta condição?

Já ouviram falar no seru?

Como é que ao fim de tantos anos, num país como Portugal, continuo a ouvir falar no lean e nunca tinha ouvido falar no seru?

À atenção dos comentadores económicos de bancada

Um texto tão bom mas tão bom!!!

"Obvious...
We respond to Obvious problems by picking the appropriate Best Practicse. We have looked at all possible game and have figured out the best possible way. They are called Best, because there is always exactly one best response.
...
Complicated...
In complicated problems the relationship between cause and effect is predictable, but (very) hard to predict. Complicated problems are the domain of expert, who are better able to predict what is likely going to happen. Which is exactly what top chess players do. They need to predict what the likely moves of their opponents are going to be. Experts can simultaneously consider more possible options, but also reduce it to a smaller set of scenarios that require more analysis.
.
So the strategy becomes Sense – Analyse – Respond. And because it is impossible figure out if a move is the best move (except check-mate obviously) there are no best practices in the complicated domain.
...
Complex.
Complex problems are completely different again. What sets them apart is that the relationship between cause & effect is only obvious in hindsight. The gaming metaphor for complexity is poker. Unlike chess, which is a game about predicting, poker is game about learning. Learning what cards your opponents have and how they compare to yours. And the high level strategy for chess doesn’t work for poker.
...
Again, taking the poker example that probe can be in the form of betting. If you make a bet you force opponents to respond to it, by folding, calling or raising. This can give you information about their hand. But other probes can be calling out opponents, sensing can be just looking at their demeanours for example.
.
So the most important thing about Complexity is that there is no way to learn (and thus solving the problem) without doing. Just thinking about it isn’t going to solve it. In Complex problems our practices are always evolving based on what we learn. In poker, even if we would play a game with the exact players with the exact same cards would turn out differently, because we learned things not just about the game, but certainly about our opponents.
...
ChaosChaos happens when there is no relationship between cause and effect or they change very quickly. In this case there is no point in probing because any learning does not help us get better.
.
The gaming analogy here is children playing. Anyone who has ever played with kids know that the rules are continuously changing. And there is no point in trying to learn the rules before starting to play. You have to get in and play with them (Act), while making sure are having fun (Sense) and change accordingly if not (Respond).
.
But most often we end up in Chaos because of some crisis. When that happens we need to very quickly stabilise the situation and get back out of Chaos. This happens all the time in business, where we are frequently relying on hero leaders and task forces to get us out of trouble.
...
But the most important learning is that a whole lot of our circumstances are complex. And thus inherently unpredictable. And no amount of thinking is going to solve that."

Pensem nos comentadores económicos de bancada prontos para dar indicações aos empresários de agora, de Mongo, com as boas-práticas do século XX.

Pensem nos comentadores económicos de bancada crentes num governo todo poderoso com um Cybersyn poderoso capaz de tudo prever.

Trechos retirados de "Understanding Complexity"

Uma coisa é uma coisa, outra coisa é outra coisa (parte II)

Parte I.

"Decide whether your current supply chain is efficient or responsive. Your chain is efficient if you satisfy predictable demand efficiently at the lowest possible cost, turn over inventory frequently, and select suppliers based on cost and quality. It’s responsive if you invest aggressively in reducing lead time for delivery; use standard components for different product versions; and choose suppliers for their speed, flexibility, and quality.
...
Correct mismatches between your supply chain and product. If you’re using an efficient supply chain to sell innovative products, or a responsive supply chain to sell functional products, you’ve got a mismatch. You can correct it through several means:
.
Change your product.
...
Change your supply chain."

Trecho retirado de "What Is the Right Supply Chain for Your Product?"

Continua.

Curiosidade do dia

É sempre possível descer mais baixo, é sempre possível arranjar mais um imposto para alimentar o monstro insaciável: "First statewide bicycle tax in nation leaves bike-crazy Oregon riders deflated"

Uma coisa é uma coisa, outra coisa é outra coisa

Um texto de 1997 mas que continua actual. Aliás, com o advento de Mongo julgo que é ainda mais actual. Também pode servir de base a uma reflexão sobre o que automatizar, num avanço para a Indústria 4.0:

"Are you frequently saddled with excess inventory? Do you suffer product shortages that have customers leaving stores in a huff? Do these supply chain headaches persist despite your investments in technologies such as automated warehousing and rapid logistics?
.
If so, you may be using the wrong supply chain for the type of product you sell. Suppose your offering is functional—it satisfies basic, unchanging needs and has a long life cycle, low margins, and stable demand. (Think paper towels or light bulbs.) In this case, you need an efficient supply chain—which minimizes production, transportation, and storage costs.
.
But what if your product is innovative—it has great variety, a short life cycle, high profit margins, and volatile demand? (A line of laptops with a range of novel features is one example.) For this offering, you require a responsive supply chain. Fast and flexible, it helps you manage uncertainty through strategies such as cutting lead times and establishing inventory or excess-capacity buffers."

BTW, na semana passada ao olhar para os indicadores de uma empresa que engloba tudo e não distingue os dois tipos de cadeia de valor percebi o dilema que sentem ao meter no mesmo âmbito de análise:

• nível de serviço (associado a tempo de resposta);
• nível de stock (associado a stock não movimentado há mais de x meses)

Trecho retirado de "What Is the Right Supply Chain for Your Product?"

Continua.

Adeus realidade científica

Ultimamente cheguei a esta teoria de que não conseguimos ver a realidade, apenas conseguimos ver uma versão pessoal dela ao estilo da realidade aumentada no écran de um smartphone.

"Just as scientists work with theories about dark matter or the beginning of the universe, so we too have a vague concept of the world and our relationship to it. Our theories may not be as well thought out, but they still dictate how we think of the world.
.
But sometimes, something happens that doesn’t fit our theory. A unique event throws us for a loop, and we start to scramble for explanations. How do we understand this happening in light of our current worldview?
...
In other words, people change. Our worldviews shift, sometimes radically, as we absorb new experiences.
...
These transitions can be quite painful. A radical change is never without some discomfort: we may be pushed into an unfamiliar world, with little familiar to guide or reassure us.
...
When our worldview changes, things get even more complicated. We feel the same anxiety (and excitement) of exploring unfamiliar territory, but, in addition, we also cling to our old worldview, thinking that it is still somehow must be ‘true.’
...
something in us grabs onto a theory as a way to explain the world. We believe, in other words, in our idea of the world, whether in the form of religion, a specific scientific worldview, psychological explanations or personality types, social studies, or whatever it may be. But what happens when something happens that doesn’t fit our theory? Either we have to painfully give it up for a new theory (often thinking, “Finally, this is the REAL answer!”), or we have to suppress or deny the evidence so that it doesn’t break our worldview.
...
Bohm proposes that theories do not actually describe the world, nor give us knowledge about it. Rather, theories are a way of looking. Bohm reminds us that the word ‘theory’ has the same root as ‘theater,’ meaning ‘to view.’ “Thus,” Bohm writes, “it might be said that a theory is primarily a form of insight, i.e. a way of looking at the world, and not a form of knowledge of how the world is”
.
This difference between theory as description and theory as insight is subtle, but crucial if we are to free ourselves from the imprisonment of constant theorizing.
...
 we have a hidden assumption. The hidden assumption is that theories themselves can be “true.”
.
But what does “true” mean? We are looking for something that works in all circumstances. But Bohm corrects us: he says, “all theories are insights, which are neither true nor false but, rather, clear in certain domains, and unclear when extended beyond these domains”
.
What we previously thought applied to the world as a whole, really only applies in certain situations.
...
This is not meant to be a buzzkill, of course, but rather to correct a false assumption that our ideas about the world are “absolutely true.” “Absolute truth” is more trouble than it’s worth because it traps us in what we think we already know to be true.
...
It is better, Bohm argues, to see theories as “ways of looking at the world as a whole (i.e. world views)”. Bohm acknowledges that we are in the world we are seeking to understand, instead of removed from it as an imagined observer. In other words, we play a part in what we experience. Our concepts and ideas shape our interpretation of the world.[Moi ici: Este parágrafo adapta-se perfeitamente à visão que tenho de que não existe um caminho único para uma empresa e que o contexto exterior tem, muitas vezes, menos peso que a idiossincrasia de quem tem a autoridade máxima. Idiossincrasia que depende da sua vida anterior, pessoal e profissional. Por isso, quando os comentadores económicos de bancada ditam as directivas para os empresários seguirem, mudo de canal]
...
it is crucial that we drop this idea of theories as “true knowledge of reality” in order to discover the world as it is, instead of as we “know it to be.”
...
Bohm’s view does not mean that theories are useless. The insights offered by theories are real insights. But these insights exist only in specific situations; they do not give us knowledge of “a reality independent of our thought and our way of looking.” Freed from this mistaken assumption, we may experience the world in a completely new way. We will no longer be limited by the confused insistence on absolute truth. Rather, we will experience life as a relationship between observer and observed.[Moi ici: Recuar e pensar que gente que dirigia este país acreditava em algo apelidado de "socialismo cientifico", e pensar que existiu uma mentalidade, bem intencionada acreditemos, que acreditava no Cybersyn]
.
Without clinging to theories, we may find it easier to go with the unpredictable flow of life."

Trechos retirados de "David Bohm on the Value of Life After Theories"

BTW,

"Pragmatism, Rather Than Intellectualism"

"instead of focusing on developing specific techniques or actions, managers should master the principles of biological thinking:
.
Pragmatism, Rather Than Intellectualism.
...
Managers must acknowledge that things often work before we can explain why.
.
Resilience, Rather Than Efficiency. It’s hard to argue against efficiency. What few managers recognize, though, is that it often trades off against resilience. Like excessive dieting, trimming too much fat can in fact be harmful to companies. The difficulty is that the benefits of efficiency are often immediate and visible, while its risks are latent and invisible. To balance the calculus, companies must make resilience an explicit priority.
.
Experimentation, Rather Than Deduction. Paul Graham once claimed that “the best startups almost have to start as side projects.” That’s because when it comes to innovating, no one knows what will work.
...
The biological approach makes management messy, iterative, and even counterintuitive and harder to articulate. Nevertheless, it is also a boon: it allows managers to tinker, to experiment, and to find solutions amid complexity. Biological management also draws on the initiative and diversity of people and liberates them from being mere instruments in mechanical processes — it is thus ultimately a more humanistic approach to management."

Muito bom!!!

Trechos retirados de "Think Biologically: Messy Management for a Complex World"

Curiosidade do dia

Consigo relacionar esta cultura "Criança multada em Londres por vender copos de limonada" com este resultado "How the Modern World Made Cowards of Us All".

"a diminishing frontier spirit and an increasing paranoia about taking big leaps."

Froome!!!

Je suis dejá avec des "saudades".

By-pass ao Estado

Há anos que aviso e aconselho as PME a fazer o by-pass ao Estado e ao país. Portugal é um local onde a política interfere demasiado na economia.

Nem de propósito:

"A recent BCG Henderson Institute analysis applying natural language processing (NLP) to S&P 500 companies’ investor communications shows that many executives now devote more attention to reacting to and shaping political and economic issues.

 This is not a surprise. Political and regulatory intervention and economic volatility do not generally help profits."

Como não recordar o apelo por cá, das associações patronais e empresariais, a pedirem mais intervenção do Estado.

Trecho retirado de "The Business of Business Is No Longer Just Business"

Acerca dos sistemas adaptativos complexos

"Biological thinking matters for several important reasons: First, in complex adaptive systems, there is no single formula or framework that always works. In fact, the very defiance of formulaic problem solving is what makes CAS management so challenging initially. It’s not possible to articulate before the fact how best to intervene in a given situation.[Moi ici: Leram bem? Voltem a ler! Recordar os que nos media dizem que o governo de turno devia dizer o que as empresas deviam fazer para terem sucesso]
...
Second, actions that work in CASs do not make sense except in light of biological thinking. Mechanical management remains alluring precisely because it relies on a familiar and shared protocol for sense making: it focuses on measurable outcomes such as efficiency and profitability; it makes initiatives easy to explain; and it gives managers a sense of control. [Moi ici: Tão verdade!!! Era o que aqui o José Silva tolerou chamar-se de optimismo não fundamentado. É o que aqui sublinhámos com o exemplo da Viarco.] Biological management stops being counterintuitive only when business leaders adopt a new managerial worldview.

.
Third, managing businesses successfully in today’s environment involves new goals rather than just new problem-solving tools. In other words, businesses need a new what as well as a new how: for instance, surviving, in addition to winning; maximizing value for others, as well as for oneself; and prioritizing learning, as well as optimizing short-term performance. [Moi ici: A maior parte dos que pensam em automatização estão a pensar no mesmo what com um diferente how.] These new goals can be embraced only when businesses adopt biological thinking."

 Muito bom!!!

Trechos retirados de "Think Biologically: Messy Management for a Complex World"

Sindicatos. “É um absurdo” proibir o corte de árvores durante 15 anos

Com base numa ideia do @joaomiranda no Twitter:

A propósito de "Sindicatos. “É um absurdo” proibir a pesca da sardinha durante 15 anos"

Curiosidade do dia

"Entre 35 países da Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Económico (OCDE), Portugal ficou em 33º lugar na competitividade fiscal. Pior do que Portugal, só Itália e França."

Deprimentemente impressionante.

Trecho retirado de "OCDE: Portugal é o 33º país menos competitivo em políticas fiscais"

The world is more complex

"Adapt approaches in response to changing circumstances. One of the traps of mechanical management is the tendency to seek universal and permanent solutions to complex problems. Processes and procedures are alluring, especially in large organizations, because they seem to be ways to tame complexity by dividing problems into simple tasks that can then be managed separately and predictably repeated. The problem is that the world is more complex than these static universal processes acknowledge — and even if they work for a while, they inevitably become stale and outdated as the environment changes.
.
In a complex world, there is no universal formula for problem solving. So what should managers do? Their best bet is to iteratively conduct small, low-cost experiments that can then be scaled up or down on the basis of their relative success.
...
This mode of problem solving through constant experimentation needs the right organizational enablers. Individual teams require the autonomy to run experiments with minimal hierarchical direction, because worthwhile ideas and initiatives often spring from individuals closest to the front line. Moreover, they need to be empowered to take full advantage of the experimental learnings. At Intuit, teams running experiments often have embedded data scientists to help them draw rigorous conclusions from their trials. Finally, teams require a culture that prioritizes learning over immediate profitability or efficiency. Experiments are not valuable unless there is a legitimate chance of failure, so businesses must help teams and individuals become bold enough to attempt such risky experiments."

Trechos retirados de "Think Biologically: Messy Management for a Complex World"

Não acredito nestas relações simplistas

Há tempos neste postal, "Reconfiguração", sublinhei:

"Poised to take off in the late 1800s, electricity flopped as a source of mechanical power with almost no impact at all on 19th-century manufacturing. By 1900, electric motors were providing less than 5 per cent of mechanical drive power in American factories.
...
Productivity finally surged in US manufacturing only in the 1920s. The reason for the 30-year delay? The new electric motors only worked well when everything else changed too. Steam-powered factories had delivered power through awe-inspiring driveshafts, secondary shafts, belts, belt towers, and thousands of drip-oilers. The early efforts to introduce electricity merely replaced the single huge engine with a similarly large electric motor. Results were disappointing."

Quando se fala sobre robotização julgo que falta também fazer algum tipo de reconfiguração mental. A maior parte das vezes que leio ou oiço sobre robotização recordo a técnica de manter x variáveis constantes e variar apenas uma:

"Bah... eu aprendi a fazer isto desde a escola primária… 7 variáveis: manter 6 constantes e mudar uma delas. E depois repetir para outra variável e assim sucessivamente.
Vantagens deste método:
.
Poucas experiências
Método simples e intuitivo (usado desde a escola primária)
À medida que avançamos na realização das experiências vamos descobrindo coisas acerca do sistema
.
Desvantagens deste método:
.
Muito sensível a erros experimentais, para remediar usam-se mais amostras, ou seja, repetem-se os testes, o que aumenta o número de testes
Ignora a interacção entre variáveis
Leva a experiências pouco estruturadas"

Quando li "Robótica. A tecnologia que vai revolucionar o mercado de trabalho" a minha mente transformou-se num turbilhão de ideias acerca das interacções.

O texto relaciona robótica e menos emprego. Eu relaciono robótica e menos flexibilidade. Basta recordar:

"In principle, the production of virtually any component or assembly operation could be robotized and moved to high-wage countries—but only so long as demand is great enough, and design specifications stable enough, to justify huge scale and hundreds of millions, if not billions, in upfront investments."

Basta recordar porque é que a VW declinou o pedido inicial da Deutsche Post, ou porque é que a Toyota e a Mercedes estão a reduzir a automatização.

O que digo aqui sobre Mongo? Mais variedade, mais tribos, mais flexibilidade, mais rapidez, ... menos friendly para gigantes e mais pro-independentes.

Assim, não acredito nestas relações simplistas entre robotização e emprego porque descuram o impacte de Mongo no perfil das empresas e da procura.

Um clássico

Um clássico deste blogue e deste anónimo da província.

De um lado o canto da sereia da eficiência. Afinal que mal é que a eficiência pode trazer?

Mintzberg também coloca a interrogação e também responde "What could possibly be wrong with “efficiency”? Plenty."

A eficiência é má? A minha resposta é: A eficiência não é boa intrinsecamente. Quando os governos constroem hospitais-cidade para aumentarem a eficiência, ou agrupamentos escolares-cidade para aumentarem a eficiência... estão a criar monstros que não vão ser capazes de cumprir a sua missão.

E quem é avaliado pela eficiência fica em rota de colisão com a direcção de Mongo para a flexibilidade e variedade.

Para enquadrar a coisa (parte II)

Parte I.

Quem não ouviu no último ano conversas sobre o perigo do alojamento local?

Quem não ouviu queixas dos incumbentes do sector da hotelaria acerca da deslealdade do alojamento local?

Conhecem esta personagem?

Dastardly nunca ganhava uma corrida porque estava mais preocupado com o sucesso dos outros do que com a sua própria corrida.

Qual o impacte do Alojamento Local nos preços da hotelaria tradicional no último ano?

Uma ilustração prática do que são diferentes segmentos de clientes, diferentes posicionamentos.

Uma espécie de rouxinóis de McArthur:

Viver e deixar viver.

Curiosidade do dia

PSG continua a afundar-se na minha consideração (e não precisa dela para nada) a propósito de:

"Se o BES tivesse tido uma injeção de capital de cinco mil milhões de euros, hoje estaria são como um pero."
 .
Pedro Santos Guerreiro, Expresso, 15 de Julho de 2017

Bem visto por Joaquim Aguiar:

"Nos assuntos da ética e da moral, não pode haver absolvição e perdão sem que tenha havido confissão e arrependimento. A confissão é necessária para que se fique a saber qual foi o processo que conduziu à falta, à culpa ou ao crime. O arrependimento é o complemento da confissão, é o reconhecimento de que o que se fez não tinha justificação.
...
Uma injecção (mesmo de capital) não resolve uma doença terminal. Onde ninguém confessa nem se arrepende não se muda de vida e o que ressuscitar será igual ao que morreu. O que aconteceu no BES (e na CGD) é o mesmo que aconteceu na política e na economia. E não poderia deixar de ser assim. Os erros de estratégia na função política geraram os erros de avaliação (ou de ocultação) do risco na função financeira, e a cumplicidade interessada dos políticos foi premiada com a colaboração empenhada dos banqueiros.
...
Se o BES tivesse tido uma injecção de capital (e até teve), estaria hoje ainda mais doente do que já estava, porque ninguém confessou ou se arrependeu. E se há sempre um paquete que leva a mala com as notas, o que tem de se procurar é quem é o dono do dinheiro que vai na mala. É ele quem comanda, para bem ou para mal, a dinâmica da política e da economia." 

Trechos retirados de "Para além de bem e mal"

Um exemplo de Mongo

Um exemplo de como Mongo vai permitir muito mais oportunidades para independentes: "This entrepreneur bootstrapped a sneaker business for celebs and high-end stores".

A aposta na customização, a aposta na diferenciação.

"identify their pain points"

Um bom conselho:

"Niches
.
Is there a particular unserved industry segment that is not currently being served by the existing offerings? If so, how can you connect with them on a real, meaningful and even emotional level?
.
In the end, success rarely comes from price battles for new entrants. Instead, look closely at your industry and target market, identify their pain points and decide how you can add value.
.
If you can do that, customer will come regardless of price."

Trecho retirado de "How Startups Can Compete and Succeed Beyond Price"

Um aviso: everybody on the inside buys into the bullshit

"“You know who should have invented Airbnb? Marriott Hotels,” says Black, starting a strange metaphor. “But they didn’t, because they’re so far up their own ass in the micro of running hotels that they could never, ever see outside of where they are. So, change instead comes from some eggheads down in Silicon Valley.”
.
“Disruption never comes from within. Every disruption is caused from the outside because everybody on the inside buys into the bullshit.”
...
Disruption happens when an outsider doesn’t follow the same practices, develops new ones, and competes differently; changing the game in their favor."

Trecho retirado de "Disruption Never Comes From Within"

Para enquadrar a coisa

O turismo cresceu em Portugal nos últimos 12 meses?

Parece uma pergunta redundante. Toda a gente vê, e muitos algo levianamente até se queixam do aumento do turismo.

Mais turistas implicam mais emprego. Se não for emprego no alojamento tradicional (apesar de tudo o que dizem do excesso de alojamento local as dormidas no sector tradicional do turismo cresceram 10% no último trimestre) será na restauração.

Agora comparem, segundos os últimos números do IEFP, a redução do desemprego no sector de "Alojamento, restauração e similares" com o resto da economia:

Se falarmos em valores absolutos:

• mete-me medo o peso do imobiliário
• mete-me muito medo que num ano o sector "Admin. pública, educação, atividades de saúde e apoio social" tenha criado mais emprego que o "Alojamento, restauração e similares".

Curiosidade do dia

Quando escrevo aqui que tenho medo das políticas fragilistas é, também, por causa disto:

"Está a dizer que estamos pior que em 2008? Sim. Se analisarmos um gráfico de crescimento da dívida americana a partir dos anos 80 parece os Alpes! A atitude paternalista do Governo e da Reserva Federal perante as várias crises levou os gestores e investidores do sector financeiro a acreditar que os decisores políticos e os reguladores da actividade bancária adoptariam idêntica orientação em futuras situações, levando-os a reforçar a componente de risco, emitindo dívida cujo produto aplicavam em investimentos especulativos nos mercados de capitais. Esta orientação não mais parou levando a um aumento em exponencial do endividamento do sector financeiro, às sucessivas bolhas especulativas com as consequências que agora se conhecem.
Acresce que o peso dos depósitos nos balanços dos bancos dos EUA decresceu muito, o que aumenta consideravelmente o risco.
...
A bolha vai rebentar? Quando? Não se sabe. Tanto pode ser amanhã ou em breve. Há mil razões para isto estoirar: a crise no Qatar com o Médio Oriente, a volatilidade das relações externas de Trump, o descrédito em relação à politica económica de Trump, por exemplo. É uma bolha gigante que envolve uma sobrevalorização do mercado de acções americano. O índice S&P500 apresenta neste momento um rácio (CAPE) de 30 vezes, ou seja, o valor do índice é cerca de 30 vezes o resultado médio por acção ajustado pela inflação, o que corresponde a um desvio de cerca de 80% acima da média. Quando rebentar, será tanto para as empresas boas como para as más. Só se safa quem esteja em activos que possa mobilizar de forma independente."

Trechos retirados de "Hugo O'Neill: "Esta bolha é pior do que 2008. E pode rebentar hoje""

Incerteza

Três notícias relacionadas:

• OPEP enfrenta primeira deserção do acordo
• The 'Tesla of scooters' is about to rapidly expand in Berlin
• Porsche pode dizer adeus aos diesel. Já em 2020

Esta semana numa empresa ouvi a previsão, com alguma certeza, de que o preço do petróleo vai aumentar nos próximos anos por causa da China. No entanto, vejo alguma incerteza nessa previsão.

Anónimo da província rules!

Um tema que refiro aqui há anos no blogue: cuidado com a mentalidade da física newtoniana aplicada à economia:

"It’s no mystery why the data used by economists and other social scientists so rarely throws up incontestable answers: it is human data. Unlike people, subatomic particles don’t lie on opinion surveys or change their minds about things. Mindful of that difference, at his own presidential address to the American Economic Association nearly a half-century ago, another Nobel laureate, Wassily Leontief, struck a modest tone. He reminded his audience that the data used by economists differed greatly from that used by physicists or biologists. For the latter, he cautioned, “the magnitude of most parameters is practically constant”, whereas the observations in economics were constantly changing.
...
Leontief wanted economists to spend more time getting to know their data, and less time in mathematical modelling. However, as he ruefully admitted, the trend was already going in the opposite direction. Today, the economist who wanders into a village to get a deeper sense of what the data reveals is a rare creature.[Moi ici: Por isso é que este anónimo da província bate nas suas previsões os Sarumans mediáticos fechados nas suas torres de marfim com os seus modelos matemáticos desenvolvidos para a realidade de há 15/20 anos]
...
 ideas in economics can go in and out of fashion. The progress of science is generally linear. As new research confirms or replaces existing theories, one generation builds upon the next. Economics, however, moves in cycles. A given doctrine can rise, fall and then later rise again.[Moi ici: Estratégias que resultam num dado período tornam-se tóxicas num período seguinte para renascerem mais tarde. Um dos meus receios actuais, que muitas PME optem por voltar ao preço como o principal factor competitivo, por causa do reshoring massivo.]
...
Noting that pure theory was making economics more remote from day-to-day reality, he said the problem lay in “the palpable inadequacy of the scientific means” of using mathematical approaches to address mundane concerns. So much time went into model-construction that the assumptions on which the models were based became an afterthought.
...
Leontief thought that economics departments were increasingly hiring and promoting young economists who wanted to build pure models with little empirical relevance. Even when they did empirical analysis, Leontief said economists seldom took any interest in the meaning or value of their data."

 Trechos retirados de "How economics became a religion"

Um tema que se vai tornar cada vez mais frequente

Um tema que se vai tornar cada vez mais frequente nas conversas dos gestores portugueses: "Indústria campeã das exportações precisa de 20 mil trabalhadores"

Ainda ontem a caminho de São João da Madeira, de manhã muito cedo, apanhei à minha frente na auto-estrada uma carrinha de caixa aberta carregada até mais não de reservatórios metálicos. Pensei logo:
- Ali vai mais um investimento!

O artigo referido nomeia 3 ou 4 projectos grandes. No entanto, convém não esquecer os milhares de girassóis anónimos a florescer por todo o país.

Num outro registo: até que ponto mais tarde ou mais cedo a indústria vai ter de equacionar para a formação o que em tempos aqui equacionei para o recrutamento de desempregados?

Até que ponto é função do Estado formar estes trabalhadores?
Até que ponto o Estado consegue prestar este serviço?
Até que ponto o Estado está a prestar um serviço desfasado da realidade das empresas? Recordo as alterações que a Deutsch Post fez na construção de um veículo:

"We designed it as a tool. So the fit and finish does not need to be as good as in a passenger car,"

Se calhar a indústria precisa de algo mais específico e focado e menos "kitado".

"So, if price isn’t the problem, what is?"

Um bom texto, "Is Price Killing Your Sale? Think Again!", para reflectir:

"Ask most sales reps the reason they lost their last sale and they will most likely say; “price, the competition undercut me to win the business”. Price is easy to blame and sometimes it really is the culprit, but, more often than not, it is not the problem. In fact, our research has shown that salespeople blame price far more frequently for a buying decision than buyers do. So, if price isn’t the problem, what is?"

"you need to enter their personal story"

"Your customers care a whole lot more about themselves than they care about your products or your messages.  That’s why your marketing and sales communications shouldn’t focus on your products.  They should focus on your customers.
...
Every person you come in contact with greets you with a rich personal narrative going on in their mind, not a blank slate. If you want to get their attention and have them value the encounter, you need to enter their personal story, not force them into your story."

Como não recordar:

"Come and win with us" vs "Let us win with you"

Trechos retirados de "It’s not about Michael Jordan. It’s about you."

Compreender o contexto

"Internal Factors• Results of internal audits and self-assessments.
• Analysis of quality cost data.
• Analysis of technology trend information.
• Competitive analysis.
• Results of customer reviews, audits,
complaints and feedback.
• Actual versus intended internal values
and culture.
• Organizational performance.
• Best practices of the organization and
comparisons with industry benchmarks.
• Employee satisfaction data analysis.
External Issues• Economic environment and trends.
• International trade conditions.
• Competitive products and services.
• Opportunities and conditions related
to outsourcing.
• Technology trends.
• Raw material availability and prices.
• Potential changes in statutes
and regulations.
• Benchmarks of best-in-class performers in and outside of the current marketplace."

Trechos retirados de "How Organizational Context and Risk-Based Thinking Influence a Quality Management System", publicado por The Journal for Quality & Participation em Abril de 2017.

"you have to start with the customer experience and work backwards to the technology"

"As Steve Jobs said: you have to start with the customer experience and work backwards to the technology. Jobs understood that when you try to reverse-engineer the need statement from the product, it's too easy to lose touch with reality.
...
Dedicating one or two sentences to the problem statement is often a false economy. For startups, the need is all that really matters. It's the foundation of your entire business. It's how you position your product. It's the 'why'. And it can trigger powerful human emotions like empathy and disgust on command.
.
Every need is contextual. It's felt by a particular person at a particular time in pursuit of a particular end-goal. It has a functional side e.g. 'I need to make this picture looks beautiful' and an emotional side e.g. 'I need attention from my friend'. And needs find a way of getting themselves met... with your product or without it.
...
Target audience: Who are your target customers? For B2B startups, who actually uses your product?
General problem: What's a problem that every target customer can agree with? e.g. not enough time or money
Key activity: What are customers doing while they use your product? e.g. booking flights or collecting receipts.
Primary goal: What's the end-goal of performing this activity? e.g. travel abroad or prepare a VAT return.
Niche: Which sub-group of potential customers is most like to be an early-adopter?
Primary functional problem: What's the hardest part about doing the activity today?
Negative outcomes and emotions: What happens if the activity goes wrong? For B2B startups, what is the negative business impact?
Substitutes: What's the next-best-option or workaround?
Most common complaints: Why do customers hate these substitutes?
Key trend: What will make this problem worse in the future?
Quantifiable impact: How can you measure the impact of solving the problem?
Positive outcomes and emotions: What good things happen as a result? For B2B startups, what is the positive business impact?
Number of potential customers: How many people can you target?"

Trechos retirados de "Why You Need to Follow the Steve Jobs Method and 'Work Backwards'"

Oportunidade de negócio?

Este números, "Près de 9 Français sur 10 ont consommé du bio en 2014", fazem-me lembrar de ver em Agosto de 2014 em Paris cerejas à venda a 14€/kg.

Que oportunidades de negócio para as empresas agrícolas de um país com potencial para reforçar a sua imagem de marca como joalheiro agrícola.

Curiosidade do dia

Não se passa nada: "Graças a Deus que não se passa nada que nos inquiete" um desfile impressionante.

Do contra

Tenho alguma inveja dos portugueses que vão poder viver neste país em 2050 com menos gente do que em 1950.

O mainstream acha que essa redução da população é intrinsecamente negativa. Não acredito que algo seja intrinsecamente positivo ou negativo, tudo depende da forma como encararmos os acontecimentos e se os vemos como oportunidades ou como ameaças.

Viver neste país depois da passagem da onda demográfica, com uma pirâmide demográfica mais equilibrada será melhor para o ambiente e poderá ser melhor para a qualidade de vida das pessoas.

Isto a propósito de "Portugal terá em 2051 menos população do que em 1950".

Cuidado com os limites

"It is still surprising how many people, from engineers to managers to quality professionals to technicians, possess limited understanding of product and process (manufacturing) limits.
.
These limits, applied to numerical measurements of key product quality characteristics, often drive behavior and actions as well as frustration for users and decision-makers. Operations can become dysfunctional when this lack of understanding produces further tightening of limits.
...
The differences between specification limits and control limits have been widely discussed since Walter Shewhart of Western Electric invented the process control chart in the mid-1920s. However, these differences seem to be poorly understood at all levels at many organizations and even among some quality professionals.
...
Let’s define specification limits. The general definition is limits within which a product would be expected to perform its stated and intended function for customer use. Specification limits, therefore, are related to product design. They should be set in the product design phase and effectively fixed for manufacture.
.
It might be surprising that some but not all organizations recognize this definition of specification limits. In one such organization the practice was to apply specification limits to averages of process results, thereby failing to acknowledge the application of specification limits to individual product units. Imagine the surprise when the new quality manager asked for the latest Cpk results and noticed Cpk values less than one!"

Claro que isto também dá para alguma batota.

Recuar a 2008 e recordar "SPC (parte III) - Cartas de controlo e especificações a combinação contra-natura (a explicação)"

Trechos recuados de "The Role of Specification Limits"

Um cheirinho de futuro

Mais um exemplo, mais um cheiro do futuro que Mongo vai trazer: "You Can Now Design Your Own Custom Swatch"

Estratégias

Qual a diferença entre estratégia corporativa e estratégia de uma unidade de negócio?

Na figura (fonte), acerca das estratégias corporativas, acrescentaria:

• Por que é que as unidades de negócio que temos valem mais juntas dentro do grupo do que isoladamente?
• Como é que cada unidade de negócio contribui para o sucesso do grupo?

Po vezes não é fácil conciliar numa única unidade de negócio a gestão de duas estratégias:

• uma estratégia para o sucesso autónomo da unidade de negócio; e
• uma estratégia para contribuir para o sucesso do grupo.

A forma como o tema é resolvido aqui, "Corporate vs Business Strategy", não chega. Se cada uma das unidades de negócio actuar no mercado independentemente das outras é uma coisa. No entanto, se além de actuarem no mercado de forma independente puderem contribuir para o sucesso de outras como fornecedoras, a coisa complica-se. E complica-se ainda mais se houver diferenças nas propostas de valor entre as várias unidades de negócio.

E recuo a Porter e a 1987, "From Competitive Advantage to Corporate Strategy":

"A diversified company has two levels of strategy: business unit (or competitive) strategy and corporate (or companywide) strategy. Competitive strategy concerns how to create competitive advantage in each of the businesses in which a company competes. Corporate strategy concerns two different questions: what businesses the corporation should be in and how the corporate office should manage the array of business units."

Curiosidade do dia

"Imagine que alguém lhe dizia ter deixado de pagar uma factura só porque a escondeu na gaveta. É isto que os vários governos fazem quando se esforçam para convencer Bruxelas a omitir certas despesas no limite máximo do défice
...
Todo o dinheiro que o Estado gasta é nosso, e vem cá buscá-lo, de uma maneira ou de outra. Compromissos internacionais, classificações administrativas e artifícios contabilísticos pouco ou nada alteram a real situação financeira. Aí funciona a velha e impiedosa lógica do merceeiro. Qualquer despesa, com qualquer estatuto, vai acabar por sair do bolso dos contribuintes, de uma das miríades de formas que as Finanças inventam para os espremer. Quando não pagam, a consequente dívida significa apenas adiamento para altura mais inconveniente.
...
Na verdade, o Pacto Orçamental é o grande aliado dos sacrificados contribuintes portugueses. Apesar de sempre violado e esquecido, constitui o único travão efectivo para uma classe política viciada em despesa pública. Ultimamente, dois outros aliados têm sido preciosos: a Unidade Técnica de Apoio Orçamental do Parlamento e o Conselho das Finanças Públicas, que reduziram muito as habituais aldrabices fiscais.
.
Cada vez que ouvir um político a bramar contra Bruxelas ou a criticar as entidades reguladoras, tem de compreender que é ao seu bolso que ele se dirige. Nós, contribuintes, deveríamos estar muito agradecidos pelas imposições de Bruxelas. Sem elas a nossa situação ainda seria muito pior, como vemos na história do triste século XIX."

Trechos retirados "O fim do fantasma fiscal"

Estratégia e contexto

A propósito desta figura*:

Proponho duas alterações:

Missão, Visão e Estratégia são dados de partida, são constrangimentos iniciais, não são variáveis que dependam de uma avaliação do contexto. Aliás, só faz sentido classificar algo como oportunidade ou ameaça à luz de uma estratégia. Um tópico não é intrinsecamente oportunidade ou ameaça. Á luz de uma estratégia, a avaliação do contexto deve levar a colocar a questão:

• A estratégia continua actual ou tem de ser revista?

* Retirada de "The Influence of Human Factors on ISO 9001:2015 Compliance" de John E. (Jack) West e Charles A. Cianfrani, publicada pelo Journal for Quality and Participation em Outubro de 2016

Estratégia para uma agricultura em Mongo

Não sei se esta opção é viável. Uso-a aqui simplesmente para dar mais um exemplo das alternativas de pensamento estratégico: "Dans le nord de la France, des paysans redonnent vie aux blés anciens".

Não se consegue competir de igual para igual com os outros?

Então, optar pela concorrência imperfeita.

E mesmo assim não basta produzir. É preciso pensar a nível de modelo de negócio. Se se produz um produto diferente e se tenta vendo-lo aos clientes do costume... o mais certo é que dê errado.

"Les semences de blés modernes ont été conçues pour répondre aux exigences nouvelles des boulangers qui souhaitent, aujourd’hui, travailler une pâte dont la levée est plus rapide. « Ils offrent ainsi à leurs clientèles des pains aux apparences trompeuses, car excessivement gonflés et dont la mie blanche et souple n’apporte plus les éléments nutritifs souhaités, analyse Didier Findinier."

Como encontro aqui "Les paysans-boulangers cultivent les graines de résistance" uma espécie de Mongo e das suas tribos:

"Les pieds dans la terre et les mains dans le pétrin, ils vont à contre-courant de l’industrialisation de la boulangerie et de la culture du blé. Paysans boulangers, ce sont des passionnés qui courent du four au moulin et sillonnent champs et marchés. "Le métier de paysan boulanger, c’est aller du grain au pain", explique Charles Poilly, installé dans le Lot-et-Garonne. "C’est élaborer le goût de ton pain dès le semis, comme les vignerons qui façonnent leur vin par le travail de la vigne."...
"Avec 40 hectares cultivés en bio, impossible de me contenter de produire du blé, je ne pourrais pas en vivre. Par contre, en étant paysan et boulanger, je sors un salaire confortable tous les mois." Et à l’autre bout de la chaîne, les consommateurs plébiscitent. "Les gens aiment savoir que le blé produit à côté de chez eux est celui qui les nourrit", note Charles Poilly.
...
Signe de cet engouement, une nouvelle formation, intitulée "Paysans du grain au pain", vient d’ouvrir dans le Tarn. Un cursus qui met notamment l’accent sur la culture d’anciennes variétés de blé. Variétés de populations, de pays ou semences paysannes… autant de termes pour désigner des plantes délaissées depuis près de cinquante ans par l’agriculture conventionnelle, car pas adaptées au système agricole intensif. Des semences remises au goût du jour par une poignée d’irréductibles rêveurs, paysans et chercheurs.
...
Rue Saint-Front, à Périgueux, une vitrine attire les regards gourmands. Petites miches dorées, gros campagnards ou ficelles parsemées de lin et de sésame. Derrière son comptoir, Laurent Cattoire fabrique tous ses pains à la main, à partir de farines de blés paysans. Une évidence d’après lui. "Avec les variétés commerciales, le pain est standard, sans saveur particulière, on ne peut pas mettre toute notre personnalité", explique-t-il. "Par contre, une farine de blés anciens, ça sent les champs, et ça a du goût."[Moi ici: Como isto me faz lembrar uma formação numa empresa de vinhos esta semana em que o tema Mateus Rosé veio à baila]
Petit rouge du Morvan, touselle, pétanielle noire. Ces blés aux noms, aux formes et aux couleurs variés confèrent au pain des saveurs complexes et subtiles. Autre intérêt, le gluten qu’ils comportent est moins modifié et plus digeste que celui des variétés commerciales. "Beaucoup de personnes intolérantes au gluten peuvent manger des céréales anciennes", constate Laurent Cattoire."

 

Acerca das exportações YTD

Olhando para os números do acumulado das exportações nos primeiros 5 meses de 2017 e 2016, e usando a minha habitual bitola, é possível perceber que as exportações das PME continuam a crescer a bom ritmo. O parcial I em Abril representava 46% do total, em Maio esse valor subiu para 49%, apesar da subida pornográfica das exportações de combustíveis (+ 62% de crescimento homólogo).

Em termos percentuais continua o crescimento notável das exportações de fruta. Metermos de euros e percentagem continua o muito bom desempenho da exportação de máquinas.

No seu conjunto, o sector primário e o agro-industrial está a crescer 23% homólogos. Por exemplo, as exportações de lacticínios estão a crescer 30% e as de peixe 17%.

O calçado está a crescer 6% apesar do sentimento moderado-negativo que tenho pressentido no sector. Espero que estes 6% não estejam a sofrer o efeito do banhista gordo e serem à custa só do crescimento das 4 ou 5 empresas de capital estrangeiro, com mais de mil trabalhadores.

Curiosidade do dia

mesmo sendo escasso o dinheiro, a política é fazer escolhas, usar numas coisas ou em outras. Se as prioridades são os eleitores da FP ...

— Carlos P da Cruz (@ccz1) June 18, 2017

Perante um recurso escasso, política no sentido mais nobre da palavra é fazer opções, é fazer escolhas. Preferir certas despesas a outras: "A austeridade na prática: até fraldas faltam nos hospitais"

Isto sem dramas nem indignações. São as escolhas legítimas de quem tem autoridade para as tomar.

Stress-test

"Companies often maintain a list of the main risks that managers believe they face, which they report as their “risk register” in annual reports. These include discrete operational events, such as major industrial accidents, cyberattacks, or employee malfeasance. If they take the next step to quantify those risks, many simply turn to that list and model them, often for the first time, onto their financial outlook. That’s a good start, as it gives managers some insight into how sensitive the company’s financial health is to changes around individual risks, which many companies don’t do. But measuring individual risks discretely does little to illuminate a more complex landscape of interrelated risks that often move together in the real world. That requires the further step of coherently clustering risks together into scenarios.
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Scenarios are more appropriate because they help managers consider the effects of a variety of severe but plausible scenarios without being farfetched. They can also accommodate interaction effects among sensitivities.
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We frequently encounter companies willing to model broader, everyday market variables, such as GDP or inflation, or more specific variables, such as the rate of formation of new companies. But we seldom find companies willing to model more extreme variables (see sidebar, “Stress testing for an energy utility company”) or one-off events, such as a cyberattack or a natural disaster. The data to measure the effects of the former are fairly easy to come by, some argue, while reliable data on the latter are not. Others believe that their employees would sufficiently rally together to counter such events."

Trechos retirados de "Stress testing for nonfinancial companies"

Serviços vs experiências

"Look at the primary economic distinctions between services and experiences. First, services are intangible—having little or no materiality (as tangible goods do)—while experiences are memorable. If you do not create a memory, then you have not offered a distinctive experience. And while being “nice” is, well, nice, it’s rarely memorable. Instead of just being nice, design your interactions to be so engaging that customers cannot help but remember them—and tell others about them.
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Second, services are outwardly customized—done for an individual person (or company)—while experiences are inherently personal. If you do not reach inside of people and engage their hearts and/or minds, then you have not offered a distinctive experience. Engineering your processes to be “easy” actually tends to get in the way of making them personal, so instead always take into account the actual, living, breathing person in front of you, even if treating him or her individually gets in the way of greater efficiency.
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Third, services are delivered on demand—when the customer says this is what he wants—while experiences are revealed over a duration. If you do not let your experience unfold dramatically over the course of your interactions in a way that goes beyond the routine, then you have not offered a distinctive experience. Striving to be “convenient” drains the interaction of all drama, so instead stage the sequence of your interactions in a way that embraces dramatic structure, rising to a climax and then bringing your customers back down again in a personal and memorable way. That’s why  services are delivered while experiences are staged."

Trechos retirados daqui.

Para reflexão

"the easier it gets for your company to acquire customers, the harder it gets to retain them.
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you have to provide more than “just” a product to stand out to your target market.
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the easier it is for potential customers to switch to you from another product, the easier it is for your customers to leave your product for competitors’ products.
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Even though it’s easier for you to serve more customers, not all of them are customers that you can build a business around."

Trecho retirado de "Acquisition is Easy. Retention is Hard" 

Um outro olhar para as importações YTD

Normalmente costumo escrever aqui sobre as exportações. Espero este fim de semana ter tempo para estudar os números que o INE publicou esta semana.

Hoje vou escrever sobre um tema que não costumo abordar: as importações.

"Nos primeiros cinco meses de 2017, as exportações e as importações de bens cresceram, em termos nominais, 13,1% e 16,3%"

A primeira reacção, ao olhar para estes números, é de receio de aumento do consumismo que se traduz em importações:

"se a retoma económica continuar em 2018 – e tudo aponta para isso – é provável que o país regresse, nesse ano, aos défices da balança de bens e serviços.
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Com efeito, estando ainda muito do rendimento dos portugueses “congelado” ou a aumentar a taxas nominais muito baixas, basta uma pequena aceleração da economia portuguesa para fazer disparar o défice da balança de bens."

Isto era o que eu pensava intuitivamente antes de olhar para os números. E o que é que eu aprendi quando olhei para os números?

Nos primeiros 5 meses de 2017 Portugal importou mais 3975 milhões de euros do que em 2016. De onde veio esse crescimento? Cerca de 70% do aumento das importações é motivado por 7 itens:

Depois de olhar para estes números fico muito mais optimista. O crescimento das importações decorre sobretudo de importações para produzir e de importações no âmbito de investimento produtivo.

Trechos retirados de "O crescimento das exportações e das importações é uma excelente notícia"