Trabalhar a relação

Um artigo com ideias interessantes e que ajuda a trabalhar o tema do desenvolvimento da relação com os clientes. 

"Many companies have embraced the importance of creating closer, more valuable relationships with customers.

But most do little to actively manage their portfolios of weaker and stronger relationships, other than keeping them diversified. They're missing significant opportunities.

...

• How central is developing customer relationship strength to our strategy and competitive advantage? More specifically, when and how much should we invest in converting weaker relationships to stronger relationships?
• How do we leverage these investments once relationships are created?
• How do we protect the relationships we have created to minimize customer churn?

...

we have identified three explicit goals for an effective CPM [customer portfolio management] growth strategy: relationship conversion, relationship leverage, and relationship defense.

Relationship Conversion 

Customer relationship conversion is the process of turning strangers into acquaintances, acquaintances into friends, and friends into partners. It accomplishes two important goals. First, customer loyalty and profit per customer improve, thanks to an increase in strong relationships. And second, the addition of weaker relationships to a portfolio provides both a source of future loyal customers and economies of scale."

Trechos retirados de "Manage Your Customer Portfolio for Maximum Lifetime Value"

Não há risco?

O JdN do passado dia 5 de Julho traz uma entrevista de várias páginas ao presidente da AEP, fiz alguns sublinhados:

"Entre o balanço do primeiro semestre e a perspetiva para o segundo "há questões constantes, nomeadamente a dificuldade de contratação de mão de obra a inflação e as taxas de juro, agora agravadas com a redução da procura interna cexterna que já se começa a fazer sentir", diz Luis Miguel Ribeiro, presidente da AEP ao Negócios.

...

O aumento dos custos de financiamento terá um efeito "significativo" ou "muito significativo" em dois terços das empresas, mais gravoso do que os 60% que garantem ter sofrido consequências da subida das taxas de juro.

...

Aevolução da procura interna um dos fatores com mais crescimento nas preocupações para a evolução da atividade, com 58% dos gestores a atribuirem-lhe um peso "significativo" ou "muito significativo"

...

Os inquiridos enunciam também o peso dos impostos como um dos fatores que vai ter impacto negativo na atividade até ao final do ano."

Até aqui o discurso do costume, o foco nas dificuldades, o foco nos problemas. Depois, apanho esta pérola:

"Que o Banco de Fomento permita, de uma vez por todas, que as empresas acedam a financiamento em melhores condições, à semelhança de muitos países da Europa com os quais competimos."

Como conciliar o comboio de queixas e dificuldades da primeira parte com o desejo de facilidades na sugunda parte? À luz da primeira parte não há risco acrescido em emprestar dinheiro às empresas? 

Scale is the force that commodifies

"The belief in scale and speed and efficiency has a commodifying effect. In the absence of a special consciousness and care, they extract our humanity. And so our workplaces are soon well structured, roles are defined, behavior is prescribed, and what was a startup now becomes a place we call work. Even when, as in a startup, freedom faces the resistance of so-called marketplace reality, we still are quite ready to surrender it. The code for this is "taking it to scale. Scale is the force that commodifies our way of being together."

Já não estamos no século XX, já não vivemos da produção em massa, já não temos demografia para a suportar, temos de apostar na arte, temos de apostar na diferenciação. A estratégia não pode passar pelo tamanho.

Trecho retirado de "Confronting Our Freedom: Leading a Culture of Chosen Accountability and Belonging" de Peter Block. 

É impressionante a diferença de ritmo entre os dois lados do Atlântico.

Uma série de postais nos últimos 30 dias aqui no blogue sobre o tema do reshoring:

• Outros sintomas de que o mundo está a mudar 
• Mais sintomas de como o mundo está a mudar
• Sonho ... deliro.

No Domingo passado publiquei o tweet:

"76.3% - Increase in U.S. construction spending, mostly on factories, in May from a year earlier."

Consequências da I.R.S.?

— Carlos P da Cruz 🇺🇦🚜🇳🇱🇬🇪 (@ccz1) July 9, 2023

Ontem apanhei este vídeo de Peter Zeihan:

Além do tema do tweet acima, o vídeo acaba com a referência a dois temas interessantes: 

• a relação entre inflação e reshoring (É transitória ...); e
• Mongo

"doubled construction stuff spending again. So, we were already at record levels three years ago, we've now doubled the record and this is going on from there. Now this does mean we're going to have some more inflation in the short in the midterm because there's no way you double the size of the industrial plant without that, but once we get to the back side of this a few years from now, we will have a supply chain system that is local, that is employed by locals, that serves local customers and uses less energy and less water and has fewer steps and it's largely immune to International shocks"

Algo que me faz pensar no regresso da indústria às cidades. 

"Bigger isn't the goal, better is"

"In the industrial age, the math of scale is pretty compelling. [Moi ici: Há anos que escrevo aqui no blogue sobre isto. Por exemplo, de há 10 anos Mas claro, eu só sou um anónimo engenheiro da província] More machines and more sales directly translate into more profits, which gives you the ability to buy more machines and generate more sales.

But if a significant organization is built on community and innovation, adding more employees doesn't make you more effective. In fact, it might do the opposite. When Facebook or Amazon lays off ten thousand people at a time, it's clear that a CFO somewhere is treating people like a resource, not like humans.

...

Bigger isn't the goal, better is."

Trechos retirados de "The Song of Significance: A New Manifesto for Teams" de Seth Godin.

"Rush to a solution"

"one of the consultant's most important contributions to a client is a redefinition of the problem. The line manager begins by experiencing some pain: people are restless, equipment isn't working, output is down, the invoicing process is flawed, the line extension is running way late.

Most consulting projects get started because managers feel pain. Once in a while, they get started because of a desire for further success or preventive measures, but most often there is some pain in the picture. When the organization feels the pain, managers start to describe for themselves why the pain exists. When their explanation of what is causing the pain is accurate, their attempts to solve the problem are usually successful. When consultants are called in, the line manager's attempts at solving the problem have not been that successful, or maybe the manager has no idea at all how to solve the problem. When a manager's attempts to solve the problem have not succeeded, it is probably because the manager's attempts to describe the cause of the pain have been inaccurate.

The client's initial attempt to describe to us the cause of the difficulties is called the presenting problem. As a consultant, I never accept the presenting problem as the real problem without doing my own discovery and analysis. The presenting problem and the real (or underlying) problem are different. Because line managers start from an incomplete definition of the problem, their attempts at solution have not entirely worked out. Therefore, an important contribution for the consultant is to redefine that initial problem statement for the client."

Ao ler isto lembrei-me logo dos políticos que perante um sintoma doloroso, trabalham directamente para o resolver sem irem à causa. Aliás, não o resolvem, lançam fogo de artifício para fazer de conta que fazem alguma coisa (rush to a solution). Recordo:

• Set 2013 - "Obliquity"
• Abr 2020 - "to achieve success, we have to stop aiming for it"

"The last form of resistance is the client's desire for solutions, solutions, solutions: "Don't talk to me about problems; I want to hear solutions." Because the consultant is also eager to see the problems solved, some collusion can take place between consultant and client if the discussion of solutions is not held off a little.

The desire for solutions can prevent the client from learning anything important about the nature of the problem. It also keeps the client dependent on consultants to solve these problems. If the line manager hasn't the patience or stomach to stop and examine the problem, then the solutions are not going to be implemented effectively."

Trechos retirados de "Flawless consulting: a guide to getting your expertise used" de Peter Block.  

Thank you Cav for everything

•  Tour de France 2017
• Até ao próximo ano, já estou com saudades
• Le Tour
• CAVENDISH!!!!
• O maior espectáculo desportivo na Europa está de volta
• Manxman
• Vai começar o maior espectáculo europeu
• Let ailing giants die

Trabalhar o denominador ou o numerador

A continuar a minha leitura de "Flawless consulting: a guide to getting your expertise used" de Peter Block encontrei este trecho:

"In the second edition of this book at the turn of the century, what was new in the discovery phase were the whole-system methodologies described in Chapter Eleven. Since then, probably the most interesting new development in discovery is the growing interest in looking at a system's gifts, capacities, and possibilities. This approach is used in addition to, or sometimes in contrast to, looking at problems - their causes and their solutions.

This approach goes under many names: asset-based community development, positive deviance, positive psychology, appreciative inquiry, future search, and more. Each of these is based on the premise that looking at what in our history we want to preserve, or what is working in a system now, or what a system longs to create in the future is a powerful way to build commitment and sustainability into any consultative or change process."

A abordagem tradicional a que o autor se refere é a de melhorar o que existe através do ataque às causas das falhas, a abordagem nova referida neste trecho é a de procurar os "system's gifts, capacities, and possibilities".

Entretanto, passei parte da semana a preparar uma acção de formação para introduzir um conjunto de pessoas à abordagem por processos para que participem num esforço de melhoria na senda da abordagem tradicional. 

A abordagem tradicional tem o seu lugar. No entanto, em algumas circunstâncias não é a mais adequada. Por isso, ao pensar no país escrevi em 2013: Redsigma - O fim da linha. 

Como exemplo da abordagem assente em "looking at a system's gifts, capacities, and possibilities" também de 2013: O repovoamento do interior também passa por isto.

De um lado lado temos o trabalhar o denominador (a abordagem tradicional), do outro o trabalhar o numerador (a abordagem dos gifts, capacities, and possibilities).

Será que a podem transformar numa oportunidade?

Como auditor de sistemas de gestão da qualidade gostava de encontrar mais sistemas de gestão. 

Por exemplo, auditar um sistema de gestão em que a análise de contexto transpira temas realmente importantes e não palha para alimentar auditor. 

Ontem no FT, em "EU set to make textile industry pay for waste", encontrei um tema que ainda não vi tratado nas empresas têxteis e de calçado:

"The EU wants the textile industry to pay for the processing of discarded clothing and footwear under new rules aimed at cutting the environmental footprint of fast-fashion brands.

...

The equivalent of 12kg of clothes and footwear per EU citizen is discarded each year of which more than three-quarters is incinerated or goes to landfill, according to commission data. The consumption of clothing and footwear is expected to increase by 63 per cent from 62mn tonnes in 2019 to 102mn tonnes in 2030. European Environment Agency data suggests.

...

"Fast fashion is a problem,""

Em tempos escrevi aqui sobre os rinocerontes cinzentos. Rinocerontes cinzentos são ameaças altamente prováveis, de alto impacto e frequentemente negligenciadas. São diferentes dos cisnes negros, que são eventos imprevisíveis e inimagináveis.

Qual o impacte desta medida nos fabricantes portugueses? Será que a podem transformar numa oportunidade?

Um risco é algo que pode acontecer, mesmo que não façamos nada.

Uma oportunidade só pode ser aproveitada se for trabalhada com antecedência. Nunca esqueça o que aprendi na aula de despedida de um professor: Sorte ... quando a preparação encontra a oportunidade.

E depois, um ditado asiático: “As oportunidades multiplicam-se à medida que são aproveitadas”

Numa empresa com um sistema de gestão um tema destes não passa despercebido, motiva reflexão, decisão e acção.

Outros sintomas de que o mundo está a mudar

Na última página do WSJ de ontem encontrei "U.S. Sees Boom in Factory Building":

"Congress passed two measures last year that aimed, in part, to build America's manufacturing capacity back up.

...

On Monday, the Commerce Department reported May construction spending figures, with overall spending rising a seasonally adjusted 0.9% from a month earlier. Once again, an important piece of that was spending on construction of manufacturing facilities."

 Entretanto, ontem durante a minha caminhada matinal, li dois artigos sobre um mesmo tema, que poderá vir a ter repercussões na forma como os governos como o português estão habituados a receber dinheiro da UE:

• "Alemania se desindustrializa y sufre un desplome de la inversión extranjera"(1)
• "Germany Needs a New Growth Model" (2)

Da fonte 1:

"una tendencia de cierres que afecta especialmente a las plantas de producción que requieren un alto gasto energético.

...

Los sectores que más economía consumen, como el químico o el metalúrgico, optan por llevarse al extranjero plantas de producción, ante el encarecimiento de la cesta energética y la incertidumbre sobre los suministros.

...

«A la industria alemana le esperan tiempos difíciles», dice el economista de Commerzbank Ralph Solveen, que añade que «en la segunda mitad del año existe la amenaza de una disminución significativa de los pedidos que probablemente contribuya a que la economía se siga contrayendo»."

Da fonte 2:

"the German economic engine is facing structural headwinds, weakening the country in the long term as geopolitical tensions mount.

The exports that powered growth in the 2010s—propelled by Asian demand for German cars, machinery, and chemicals—ran out of steam in 2018

...

Now, while globalization has not gone into reverse, it is changing form, and not in Germany’s favor. China’s car exports are exploding, supplanting Germany as the second biggest exporter  and threatening Japan’s spot at the top of the global auto market. Beijing is also upgrading its machinery sector. Ironically, Berlin has exacerbated the competitive threat that is now emerging with little regard for a level playing field with China. 

...

Germany also made little progress in cutting red tape or reducing unwarranted protections for professional service like tax or legal services, which both stifle competition and keep prices unnecessarily high. This makes it harder to start or scale-up a business."

"In most cases, however, this thinking is naive"

"The limitation of third-party help comes from the separation between the discovery and the doing. Third-party recommendations have to be sold to management, and then management has to either mandate or sell the ideas to the employees. The very process of selling is based on flawed premises: it pretends that there is a right answer to the problem, that the consultant or design team knows the right answer, and that, in good engineering fashion, the line organization can (and should) be persuaded to accept the answer and act on it.

In some cases, especially when the problem is strictly technical in nature, there may be a right answer, and it may be accepted and implemented on its own merits. In most cases, however, this thinking is naive. Whenever there are questions of management or employee commitment, or issues of developing new skills or new organizational relationships, the prescriptive engineering or medical model ends in modest change at best. At worst, even if the third party's answer is right, it still may not be acted on, even with unqualified management sponsorship.

...

When the goal is to build internal commitment to a set of changes, selling is the worst way to do it. People will resist change that is inflicted on them, no matter how compelling the case.

The power of the whole-system approach lies not so much in management sponsorship but in the high engagement and involvement of the entire organization. The whole-system process doesn't proceed without sponsorship, for management will be in the room, but it doesn't bet on sponsorship so heavily. It is a bet on collective knowledge, collective purpose, and the commitment that grows out of deciding for oneself."

Trechos retirados de "Flawless consulting: a guide to getting your expertise used" de Peter Block. 

Religio - something completely different

Recentemente comecei uma leitura nocturna de "Introdução ao Cristianismo" de Joseph Ratzinger. Logo nas primeira páginas deparo com o tema da diferença entre o crente e o descrente. Ratzinger destaca a natureza entrelaçada da crença e da descrença, e a incerteza inerente que tanto os crentes quanto os descrentes enfrentam nas suas respectivas visões do mundo. Os crentes navegam na dúvida e nos desafios da fé, enquanto os descrentes são assombrados por dúvidas sobre sua própria incredulidade. Ambos são confrontados com a realidade inescapável da existência humana, onde a certeza das próprias convicções nunca é absoluta. Ratzinger enfatiza que rejeitar a crença traz à tona a sua presença inegável e a possibilidade persistente de que ela possa conter a verdade. Em última análise, ressalta o dilema inescapável que todos os indivíduos, independentemente de suas crenças, têm de enfrentar como seres humanos.

Isto está directamente relacionado com a reflexão de outra leitura nocturna do primeiro trimestre, "Patience with God: The Story of Zacchaeus Continuing In Us" de Tomas Halik. Tomas Halík é muito bom:

"I agree with atheists on many things, often on almost everything — except their belief that God doesn’t exist…

In today’s bustling marketplace of religious wares of every kind, I sometimes feel closer with my Christian faith to the skeptics or to the atheist or agnostic critics of religion. With certain kinds of atheists I share a sense of God’s absence from the world. However, I regard their interpretation of this feeling as too hasty, as an expression of impatience. I am also often oppressed by God’s silence and the sense of God’s remoteness. I realize that the ambivalent nature of the world and life’s many paradoxes can give rise to phrases such as “God is dead” to explain God’s hiddenness. But I can also find other possible interpretations of the same experience and another possible attitude to “the absent God.” I know of three (mutually and profoundly interconnected) forms of patience for confronting the absence of God. They are called faith, hope, and love…

Yes, patience is what I consider to be the main difference between faith and atheism. What atheism, religious fundamentalism, and the enthusiasm of a too-facile faith have in common is how quickly they can ride roughshod over the mystery we call God — and that is why I find all three approaches equally unacceptable. One must never consider mystery “over and done with.” Mystery, unlike a mere dilemma, cannot be overcome; one must wait patiently at its threshold and persevere in it — must carry it in one’s heart — just as Jesus’s mother did according to the Gospel, and allow it to mature there and lead one in turn to maturity."

Entretanto, ontem via Twitter cheguei a "O humorista David Baddiel não acredita em Deus, mas gostaria que ele existisse" o que me levou a recordar um filósofo contemporâneo suíço, Alain de Botton, que quer criar uma religião sem Deus porque, sendo ateu, sente necessidade das consequências de uma religião para a sociedade como um todo. O que me leva a outro trecho de Ratzinger e a um episódio das reflexões de John Vervaeke em "Awakening from the Meaning Crisis" sobre a origem da palavra religião e do seu sentido.

Segundo o que percebi, a origem romana da palavra religião, religio, estava relacionada com a prática, com a observância de certas formas e costumes rituais. Não era crucial que houvesse um acto de fé no sobrenatural. Eram os rituais que ligavam o povo às instituições do poder temporal. Recordo que Júlio César foi Pontifex Maximus, sumo sacerdote, contra sua vontade porque não podia usar armas, imposto por Mário o heptacônsul.

Mais sintomas de como o mundo está a mudar

Mais sintomas de como o mundo está a mudar. 

"When Bayard Winthrop, the chief executive of the retailer American Giant, ordered the batch of shirts that his company would advertise for the Fourth of July, he didn't think much of it. The retailer, which has been producing its apparel solely in factories around the United States for more than a decade, perennially leans into its "Made in America" pitch for Independence Day.

This year's crew-neck T-shirts are fittingly available in red, white or blue with very little embellishment other than getting straight to the point: Letters that read "American Made." They cost $60 each. And they sold out in the first day. Then he ordered another set, which also sold out quickly as well. The company is scrambling to secure its fourth order.

For American Giant, this is shaping up to be its most lucrative Fourth of July yet. The company has been using its "Made in America" status to advertise to consumers since its founding in 2012. But, Mr. Winthrop said, it is now reaching customers at a time when chatter about the global supply chain, re-shoring, trade deal loopholes and sustainability in fashion has moved beyond boardrooms and policy circles. 

Sixty-five percent of U.S. adults said they intentionally bought "Made in America" products over the past year, according to a Morning Consult survey released last month. That's about the same rate of U.S. adults who said they had those same intentions last year.

...

The reality is much of that apparel is made overseas and imported. 

... 

Since the 1990s, production of apparel sold by major American retailers has largely moved overseas, especially to China, which brings heightened tensions between the United States and China into the equation for those companies.

The pandemic also strained the global supply chain, disrupting the reliability of imports. In some cases, retailers are moving production closer to the United States or sourcing a wider share of the goods they sell domestically.

In the past month, lawmakers in Washington have introduced a series of bills seeking to close off a shipping channel that allows companies like the fast-fashion retailers Shein and Temu - both founded in China - from benefiting from a trade rule, which allows them to forgo paying fees at U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Lawmakers argue this would level the playing field for American-based retailers."

Recordar o recente Sonho ... deliro. O paralelismo para Portugal tem de ser ao nível do Made in Europe.

Entretanto, ontem encontrei esta frase:

"The more immersed we become in a changing culture, the more we need to be reminded of what is timeless and fundamental." 

Trechos retirados de "Shirt Maker Has Patriotism Down to a U.S.A. -Made ' Tee" publicado no NYT de 2 de Julho último.

"Show me your agenda"

"Then let's acknowledge that decisions are far more important than tasks.

Show me your agenda for today, and I'll show you what you value. If your team spends almost all of its time on chores with known solutions, then you're probably in the stopwatch business. Find the cheapest, fastest, most reliable people (or computers) available, then put them on your assembly line.

But if we're seeking to make change happen, then our job is to get from here to there. To find a path. To identify the next best thing to work on, describe an opportunity, and then make it real.

If you're a pathfinder, call it that, organize for it, and measure it."

E recuo a 2006:

"Qualquer subordinado, é o melhor estudioso do comportamento do seu chefe, não interessa o que o seu chefe diz, ou proclama; interessa o que o seu chefe faz, onde ocupa o tempo da sua agenda. Assim, o que a gestão de topo mede é uma poderosa mensagem para o resto da organização, o que se mede é o que interessa, é o que tem de ser atingido." 

Fugir da previsibilidade (parte II)

Há oito dias em Fugir da previsibilidade escrevi:

"Predictability é sinónimo de concorrência perfeita, ou seja lucros raquíticos e empobrecimento.

...

Fugir da previsibilidade é uma forma de criar heterogeneidade e fugir da comoditização, é uma forma de criar valor potencial que pode vir a ser capturado como margem superior."

Ontem, encontrei em "The Song of Significance: A New Manifesto for Teams" de Seth Godin:

"There's a huge difference between the backwardlooking work of quality improvement and the forward-looking dance of making decisions about what happens next.

If you're not willing to produce change, then you really have no options. Cost-reduction through industrial management is your only path forward. We've built world-class systems of gradual systems improvement. The measured quality of cars, computer chips, and even overnight package delivery is stunning."

As PMEs no campeonato do custo mais baixo não têm hipótese. 

"In the case of the industry leader, our research showed an entirely different impact of market overlap. Market overlap seems to counteract the benefits of strategic similarity to the industry leader. This is consistent with our reasoning that dependence on the same type of resources as the industry leader and obtaining them from the same resource pools counteract the legitimacy advantages that small firms obtain through similarity to this prominent firm. In addition to this effect on the supply side, it is reasonable to understand that market overlap with the industry leader could trigger negative effects on small-firm performance due to the need to compete with this rival for the same customers (i.e., demand-side effect). Since the industry leader has a stronger position in common markets, it could attract customers more easily than small firms, having a negative impact on their results. Thus, both demand- and supply-side considerations lead to the same negative effect of market overlap on the relationship between similarity to the industry leader and small-firm performance."

Trecho retirado de "To be different or to be the same when you are a small firm? Competitive interdependence as a boundary condition of the strategic balance perspective" 

"resistance is an emotional process"

"When we ask for help, we want both a solution to the problem and confirmation that everything we have done has been perfect.

A colleague of mine, Neale Clapp, mentioned one day that people entering therapy want confirmation, not change. On the surface, it would be ridiculous for a client to bring in a consultant for help, and then tell the consultant that no change was desired and the client did not really want to learn anything. This would not be rational. But that is the point: resistance is an emotional process, not a rational or intellectual one.

...

Not surprisingly, organizations that are in serious trouble tend to be the most difficult clients. They need to change the most and are least able to do it. For low-performing organizations, the tension of failure is so high that they are unable to take one more risk, and so instead they hold on to their unsatisfactory performance. In these extreme cases, there is probably not much consultants can do to surface the resistance to change. We may just have to accept it."

Julgo que já escrevi sobre este tema, Procrastinação e falta do sentido de urgência, sobre empresas que adiam a aplicação de micro-mudanças ao longo do vector tempo, ampliando o gap entre o que são e o que deveriam ser, até que só uma grande mudança a pode ajudar, mas não há experiência sobre como mudar, e há um medo tremendo de falhar ... mudar significa avançar para algo desconhecido, mudar significa medo.

Trechos retirados de "Flawless consulting: a guide to getting your expertise used" de Peter Block.

Lucro, estratégia e prompts

O artigo intitulado "Working Hard for the Money: The Crunch on Global Economic Profit" destaca a tendência de declínio do lucro em todos os sectores, algo que vai contra a opinião geral, e explora os fatores que contribuem para essa tendência, como o aumento da concorrência e a mudança na dinâmica do sector.

Ou seja, reforça-se cada vez mais a importância de se fazerem escolhas estratégicas, da eficiência operacional e da inovação para sustentar e aumentar o lucro.

À boleia de um projecto que me ocupa parte do tempo entre Maio e Agosto, estou a perceber em primeira mão o que é trabalhar com inteligência artificial ainda que nas suas formas mais básicas. Ainda ontem, uma tarefa que me demoraria 3 a 4 horas foi feita em 30 minutos e com a vantagem da minha intervenção ser crítica e não afectada por ter trabalhado previamente no que estava a ver. Agora é imaginar aplicar isto ao planeamento da produção, à gestão de meios de produção, ao design, ...

BTW, já imagino cursos sobre "Engenharia de escrita de prompts".

.Em vez de deixar o mercado agir ...

Umas lições que aprendi na segunda década deste século, (Fazer o by-pass ao poder):

Stressors are information!

Estamos viciados em pedir às instituições que mascarem a realidade (os bancos centrais que descarreguem dinheiro na economia), depois a realidade regressa com a força redobrada e ...

Outro exemplo, "Produtores de vinho apreensivos com ano desastroso em Angola devido a queda do kwanza". Em vez de deixar o mercado agir ... uns produtores fechariam, recursos seriam redireccionados, e o futuro seria construído, temos "Europe Drowns In Wine As EU Adopts "Crisis' Measures To Rescue Producers":

"Wine production on the continent increased 4% last year compared with the previous year, while wine stocks were 2% higher versus a five-year average. The drop in wine demand was the most significant in Portugal, down 34%. Demand also tumbled 22% in Germany, 15% in France, 10% in Spain, and 7% in Italy."

Quais são as partes interessadas

Assim que olhei para esta imagem:

Sorri e pensei nos exercícios pueris que vejo em algumas empresas sobre quais são as suas partes interessadas.

Sonho ... deliro.

Está quase a fazer dois anos que o primeiro ministro foi descrito assim:

"Ao dr. Costa interessa tanto o que se vai passar daqui a três anos, como a mim o que se vai passar daqui a 300. O dr. Costa quer saber da semana que vem. O que é desesperante é que a direita nem a semana que vem percebe."

 Dali só podemos esperar competência(?) no jogo do imediato. Por isso, seria interessante que um bloco central qualquer, para remover reacções epidérmicas, se reunisse para pensar o futuro, e preparar um conjunto de propostas sobre como criar condições para tirar partido da re-industriialização da Europa. Não seria para escolher campeões, não seria para distribuir dinheiro pelos amigos, mas para, na linguagem de Bloomberg como mayor de New York, pôr a mesa.

A revolução está aí:

"A global arms race to reindustrialise is under way, reversing long-established trends in many advanced economies. The forces driving this race - decarbonisation, deglobalisation, remilitarisation - are likely to have lasting implications for the global macroeconomy and may even help it break free from secular stagnation.

...

Underpinning this shift has been a relocation of manufacturing production from west to east and an accompanying reconfiguration of global supply chains. [Moi ici: Recordar "já não precisamos da vossa ajuda" ] This was made possible by successive waves of trade liberalisation, culminating in China's accession into the World Trade Organization in 2001. These trends were then amplified by the activist industrial policies pursued by countries such as China and Singapore, policies typically not matched in the west.

...

The past few years, however, have seen a new industrial age beginning to take shape, with global manufacturing undergoing a revival, in particular in the west. This has been underpinned by three distinct global arms races.

...

This new industrial age is also beginning to reverse some of the secular macro trends of the past. Fractured supply chains are raising global prices, causing inflation targets to overshoot and interest rates to rise. Public and private money is flooding into manufacturing projects, irrigating firms dehydrated by the investment drought. Higher investment plans are also helping absorb the global savings glut, with global real interest rates rising by over 1 percentage point so far.

Most arms races leave no one better off. Today's race to reindustrialise is different. It mav be just the impetus the world needs to break free of its economic and environmental torpor."

Sonho... deliro.

Trechos retirados de "The industrial arms race is just what we need" publicado no FT de ontem.